Today

[Geylang OKT]

Actually there are alot of cash rich people around still waiting. If price drop by 5-10% many of them will chiong to buy liaoz, bringing up the price again, just like what happened last year.

Last year, recession, everybody waiting for low price which never came because many cash rich people spoil market, price drop a little only all chiong and buy.

If they had cheonged to buy this year, they will die very pain pain

[hyenergix]

It is not hard to see that our economy was buffered against the economic crisis by the construction industry from 4Q2008 to 4Q2009.

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/news/gdp4q2009.pdf

Since the construction & real estate are such important sectors that support other sectors e.g. logistic & finance, and also affect the social structure, the government will take extra care not to crash the property prices, but to grow it gradually over the years.

There are many tools at the government's disposal to control property prices e.g. less land sales, relax rules on down payment & deferred payment scheme, allow private property owners to buy HDB again, increase immigration, asking banks to relax lending criteria etc.

More 99 LH land are recently bought at very high prices (developers are getting more crazy). When they are launched next year, you will be seeing >$850 psf at not so good locations. For new 999 or FH properties, we should be looking at > $950 psf.

Land sales: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Condo+...s+only+5+bids/
Enbloc: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Toh+Tu...+en+bloc+sale/

And lastly, people like me will jump in to get another 999 or FH unit if price drops by just 10%.

[Geylang OKT]

It is not hard to see that our economy was buffered against the economic crisis by the construction industry from 4Q2008 to 4Q2009.

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/news/gdp4q2009.pdf

Since the construction & real estate are such important sectors that support other sectors e.g. logistic & finance, and also affect the social structure, the government will take extra care not to crash the property prices, but to grow it gradually over the years.

There are many tools at the government's disposal to control property prices e.g. less land sales, relax rules on down payment & deferred payment scheme, allow private property owners to buy HDB again, increase immigration, asking banks to relax lending criteria etc.

More 99 LH land are recently bought at very high prices (developers are getting more crazy). When they are launched next year, you will be seeing >$850 psf at not so good locations. For new 999 or FH properties, we should be looking at > $950 psf.

Land sales: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Condo+...s+only+5+bids/
Enbloc: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Toh+Tu...+en+bloc+sale/

And lastly, people like me will jump in to get another 999 or FH unit if price drops by just 10%.

I wouldn't do that.

[cashrich]

It is not hard to see that our economy was buffered against the economic crisis by the construction industry from 4Q2008 to 4Q2009.

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/news/gdp4q2009.pdf

The other way to look at it, construction lifted the economy or kept it going.

Since the construction & real estate are such important sectors that support other sectors e.g. logistic & finance, and also affect the social structure, the government will take extra care not to crash the property prices, but to grow it gradually over the years.

Takes time to land. Slowly up and slowly down is better than fast up and fast down.

There are many tools at the government's disposal to control property prices e.g. less land sales, relax rules on down payment & deferred payment scheme, allow private property owners to buy HDB again, increase immigration, asking banks to relax lending criteria etc.

Yes, many tools, as long as they stay in power.

More 99 LH land are recently bought at very high prices (developers are getting more crazy). When they are launched next year, you will be seeing >$850 psf at not so good locations. For new 999 or FH properties, we should be looking at > $950 psf.

Land sales: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Condo+...s+only+5+bids/
Enbloc: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Toh+Tu...+en+bloc+sale/

The baseline prices are set or maintained by developers. Once land sold, developers are free to price (at very high profit or even negative profit) who cares right? Buyers decided to bite or not. Negative is unlikley unless they have cashflow problems or bankrupt.

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p....cationPlan.jpg

http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=9964

And lastly, people like me will jump in to get another 999 or FH unit if price drops by just 10%.

Correct... the two forces of buying and selling interact with one another.

Two triangles, Top down and Bottom Up

Seller's Group
5% = maybe 25% want to sell
10% = maybe 20% want to sell
15% = maybe 15% want to sell
20% = maybe 10% want to sell
25% = maybe 5% want to sell
30% = maybe no one wants to sell But some will be FORCED TO SELL. Bargains surface only when they are FORCED TO SELL

Buyers Group
5% = maybe no one want to buy now
10% = maybe 5% want to buy
15% = maybe 10% want to buy
20% = maybe 15% want to buy
25% = maybe 20% want to buy
30% = maybe 25% want to buy

50% = maybe 100% want to buy, ability to buy is another thing.

5% less in price is perhaps balanced by 5% buyers = flat line
10% less in price is perhaps balanced agained by 10% buyers = flat line

But when economy tanks, engine stalls.
Some owners might have to sell at 5% to 50% loss. Some buyers can see bargains but cannot touch them...

When Sellers need to get out but the Buyers dare not touch. (20% to 50% less)deals might happen but it takes time. See Post 1997 line trends... it will drop and remain flat again (my prediction).

Figures are only for illustrative purpose only. Critique welcome.

[TS]

I see some selling prices softening already. Like it or not, I think the price will go correct from here in general (except high end which can go both ways still).

I am true to my views, cos I already de-leveraged 2 of my units this year. One of which in end Aug.

[Condorich]

I see some selling prices softening already. Like it or not, I think the price will go correct from here in general (except high end which can go both ways still).

I am true to my views, cos I already de-leveraged 2 of my units this year. One of which in end Aug.

Good for you.



Correction = means the hands of GOD(act of GOD) or mortal beings with the limited ability to play GOD.

[jwong71]

Example of a bargain in oct 2008. Valuation at 500k,owner selling 340k. Noone wanna buy. Why?
Eventually if 5-10% seller dumping at 30% disc. Remaining sellers of disc 5-20% will follow suits to dump at 30% to dispose and stay competitive.

If the tread stay flat growth. Which rich guy will not direct funds into somewhr to generate better returns? Than to hold and see flat growth for his properties? Yes maybe but either fh or city areas which appreciate more in the long run despite of some ageing.

[dmonddd]

good....others will continue to rent...

[DuffyDuck]

If the property market price dip by 50%, the whole Singapore economy will collapse ..... I don't think the government want too see this happen. If price do fall beyond control, government will step in and create demand !

[azeoprop]

If the property market price dip by 50%, the whole Singapore economy will collapse ..... I don't think the government want too see this happen. If price do fall beyond control, government will step in and create demand !

Haa haa, because those in the govt themselves are one of those cash rich people with multiple properties. They cannot allow this to happen.

[smallant]

This scenerio is true IF :

1) HDB prices collapse
2) No more FTs coming
3) Reverse brain drain.. ie singaporeans leaving spore !
4) Govt Change .... Ie the existing govt gone !

5) World economy back in shit mode !

Am sure more reasons to add.. By the way.. what are the creditenals of this ah moh of spore local prop mkt ? Remember wat happen to those ah mohs CEOs of DBS ..... what impact they make etc... Let history be the judge...

[dmonddd]

at times others would want others to collapse and create opportunities snce their part of the world has gone under like stock market and oil prices....if everything is predictable no arbitrage for those vultures


some locals would get sucked in

[dmonddd]

This scenerio is true IF :

1) HDB prices collapse
2) No more FTs coming
3) Reverse brain drain.. ie singaporeans leaving spore !
4) Govt Change .... Ie the existing govt gone !

5) World economy back in shit mode !

Am sure more reasons to add.. By the way.. what are the creditenals of this ah moh of spore local prop mkt ? Remember wat happen to those ah mohs CEOs of DBS ..... what impact they make etc... Let history be the judge...

agree .these guy cant even do well on their own countries ..see wht happened..time to mess other countries esp china..thy wnt china china create more havocs for the easterners

thats when they will get to be hired

[dmonddd]

then those dumbo easterners wld think that the westerners are god in turning around the eastern collapsed countries whilst they cant turn around theirs for so many years.

btw they are not gods...we are LMAO

[dmonddd]

our forefathers did great in building the island....we can do better

[rattydrama]

When Sellers need to get out but the Buyers dare not touch. (20% to 50% less)deals might happen but it takes time. See Post 1997 line trends... it will drop and remain flat again (my prediction).

Figures are only for illustrative purpose only. Critique welcome.

Your prediction is highly possible.

It is possible cos those of us who bought property last year already stretched their finance. It won’t be surprised there are many who sell 1 unit and buy back another 2 units with higher loan quantum.

The next round price adjustment will be flat as lesser could afford any additional units even at reasonable discounted price since finance overstretched and current units cannot sell at high price.

Any increase in price will be gradual. Unlikely it will be chased like what was happening early this year.

[Condorich]

Your prediction is highly possible.

It is possible cos those of us who bought property last year already stretched their finance. It won’t be surprised there are many who sell 1 unit and buy back another 2 units with higher loan quantum.

The next round price adjustment will be flat as lesser could afford any additional units even at reasonable discounted price since finance overstretched and current units cannot sell at high price.

Any increase in price will be gradual. Unlikely it will be chased like what was happening early this year.

Excellent comments.

When there's no tomorrow in run away prices, people lose their rationality. Thinking it is a sure win thing to spilt one debt into two and buy more. But what they FAILED TO SEE is that they have a bigger debt to service than before.

Maybe from a $200k debt (1 HDB) to a $500k debt estimated (1 HDB and 1 Private or 1 Private to 2 or more Private). But when tomorrow comes, people deny the reality until it bites. Truth in "Reality bites".

It will hurt some who are bitten and do not wish to be bitten nevertheless.

[rattydrama]

Pain is something that cannot be described. Its only that when one being hurt then pain can be “recognized”. It is too late when that happens.

My friend was burnt badly by Lehman Brothers in 1998. Guess what he said to me yesterday? He has lost his 100K++ CPF monies and he is not going to touch on any investment or property no matter how attractive is the projected returns.

He just wanted to work hard, thrift and save for his retirement. This is because it is painful to see hard earn money went to the longkang.

People who chased after property in 1997 could have this experience but its about 13 years ago. The pain could still be there for some depending how much one had lost.

These days, properties in Singapore are also played by those in their late 20+ or 30+ who only see profits because most of them bought their property mid of last decade.

Beware that market can be down (10%?) and stay there for at least 5 years before going up again. All your monies are trapped and you cannot plan for your future.

This group of people in their 20 – 30 may not have the actual experience on these kind of pain and agony. No cash can make you a lousy man.

[isaaclim]

Pain is something that cannot be described. Its only that when one being hurt then pain can be “recognized”. It is too late when that happens.

My friend was burnt badly by Lehman Brothers in 1998. Guess what he said to me yesterday? He has lost his 100K++ CPF monies and he is not going to touch on any investment or property no matter how attractive is the projected returns.

He just wanted to work hard, thrift and save for his retirement. This is because it is painful to see hard earn money went to the longkang.

People who chased after property in 1997 could have this experience but its about 13 years ago. The pain could still be there for some depending how much one had lost.

These days, properties in Singapore are also played by those in their late 20+ or 30+ who only see profits because most of them bought their property mid of last decade.

Beware that market can be down (10%?) and stay there for at least 5 years before going up again. All your monies are trapped and you cannot plan for your future.

This group of people in their 20 – 30 may not have the actual experience on these kind of pain and agony. No cash can make you a lousy man.

Sad to hear that... Sad as in he craved the word failure on his tomb.

[cashrich]

Sad to hear that... Sad as in he craved the word failure on his tomb.

Yes, very sad.

House broken

Home lost and

Some Divorced.

Just because over geared... No $ but wanna play with $. God of gamblers.

So sad... some even committed suicide.

[devilplate]

tats y we have wealth pyramid

[ikan bilis]

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/sho...within-2-years


??????......

[insigina]

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/sho...within-2-years


??????......

You mean just like many analysts predicting late last year/early this year that Singapore property prices will drop 20 to 30% this year???

[CondoWE]

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/sho...within-2-years


??????......

Ah B following the so call expert's step but he is more smarter. He predicted from 2011-2015 which is 4 yrs duration instead of 2 yrs ....hehehe..2015 !

[proper-t]

Ah B following the so call expert's step but he is more smarter. He predicted from 2011-2015 which is 4 yrs duration instead of 2 yrs ....hehehe..2015 !

Ah B not smart lah...he just changes goal post whenever his predictions go off course...see his predictions in Oct 11 and then in Mar 12. His original prediction when he first started the thread is already way off...

Posted on 30 Oct 2011 (Post#31)

can you read??...
now down 10-20% from 1-2 moths ago....
1-2 yrs later...will be down 40% from 1-2 months ago....
don't shout any number what you like.....

Posted in Mar 2012 (Post #9590)

STI go below 1000 & property price down >50% in 2-3 yrs time before 2015....

[Rysk]

Ah B not smart lah...he just changes goal post whenever his predictions go off course...see his predictions in Oct 11 and then in Mar 12. His original prediction when he first started the thread is already way off...

That's why MR B was named "TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT" since long time ago..

[samuelk]

That's why MR B was named "TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT" since long time ago..

should open a underground casino. Only win no losses

[graveyard]

Property expert says prices may collapse by up to 50 per cent in the next year or two

05:55 AM Sep 17, 2010
by Ephraim Seow Siew Lee

The dizzying rise in property prices here is not sustainable and the market may be heading for a hard landing in one to two years' time.
When that happens, property values may fall by as much as 50 per cent, according to an expert at a real estate forum yesterday.
Property experts speaking at the National University of Singapore's Institute of Real Estate Studies Forum said that excess liquidity in the market is the main factor that has been driving up property prices recently.

This liquidity may originate from prudent savings during the financial crisis, gains from the stock market run-up last year and foreign funds flowing here in search of better returns in Asian and emerging markets.
Mr Beat Lenherr, global chief strategist of LGT Capital Management, said: "I think that the money is finding a way around specific pointed measures and the money is just going to all the segments, micro-markets or micro-sectors."

Mr Lenherr also reckoned that the recent rally is not well supported and has been too fast, paving for a harder fall.
"If you look at the developments over the last four years, you clearly see elements of exaggerations where it doesn't make sense to buy in terms of rental yields or expected capital gains," Mr Lenherr added.
As such, he said property prices may "collapse by 30, 40 or 50 per cent" in the next one to two years.

Other speakers at the forum also said that the Singapore Government is still holding back on several other drastic measures such as the capital gains tax, which could dampen the property market abruptly if introduced.
They said the Government has so far been successful in building good neighbourhoods and community in its housing policies beyond controlling prices.

"I think the local market has been kept quite steady. I think the Government can indeed take pride in being able to making available affordable housing to more than 70 or 85 per cent of the masses," said Professor Bernard Yeung, Dean of NUS Business School. Ephraim Seow

URL http://www.todayonline.com/Hotnews/E...xt-year-or-two

Copyright 2010 MediaCorp Pte Ltd | All Rights Reserved

Get your cash ready

Alll these analysts .. if turn out property price did fall 50%, they would say “see, I told you so!” and become a property guru … if price rise instead, they will say “I said MAY what, my words have been taken out of context ..”

[radha08]

analyst=anal-list

[buttercarp]

analyst=anal-list

The job of an anal-list is to anal-lice .