Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...
http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-i...operty-market/
So, where are we today?
Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...
http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-i...operty-market/
So, where are we today?
Originally Posted by chestnut
thanks bro chestnut. thought you are on holidays. interesting article that phases out what many of us already knows.
i think we are in the flat phase of late bull that is consolidating... going forward, it may continue in either direction, depending on external factors, but at worst probably in a plateau fashion. this is what our govt wants as well.
Bro, I travel for a living... Hahaha sort of... My work requires me to travel within se Asia + a few countries....Originally Posted by lifeline
I roughly know this but it is very difficult to articulate it... But this link, actually articulates it quite well...
After the bull, there will always be the bear... U cannot run away from that... Just look out for tell tale signs... If u have 2, difficult to play... U sell 1, bloody price, continue to run, it is diffult to go in again.... Then, by the time it drops, u may be too 'old' and bank shorten your tenure...
Aiya, to elaborate, too long.... U guys smart enough to know wat I talking about lah... Enjoy the link...
seems like we are at early bear with news of 8 projects with large unsold units. The problem with this statement is with every new launch, the take up rate seems to indicate a new phase of bull . So is there such a term as segmented bull n bear market?
bro, do you enjoy your overseas trip?Originally Posted by chestnut
eg. tiring?
I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)
Overseas work trip... I used to travel like taking bus... But nowadays 1 trip every 1 trip every 2 month...ave... More likely 3 trips within a month... Rest 3 month...hahahahaOriginally Posted by roly8
I only use my brain,.... The rest of the trip, people entertain me,,, my only fear is FOOD. Too much of it,l. Must be damn discipline to control all the good food in front of me,,,
Sucker for food...
lol~Originally Posted by chestnut
do take care of your health..
you are what you eat
I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)
We are in the middle of bull market. Stock prices still a far cry from crazy level. US Interest rate is very low. During end of the bull, penny stocks, even profit losing company stock prices up few times even lousy company also make money. Interest rate will be above 5%. But We still don't see that now. If no cooling measures property price will continue to up by large percentage.
those 8 projects are in the luxury segment, which is well controlled by the CM. that's why they are not moving, and "normal" sinkies cannot afford them (me inclusive).Originally Posted by samuelk
the new launches nowadays all OCR, within affordability levels, that's why high take up. and with each new CM, some buyers are eliminated, but others jump in for fear of MTB.
the charts only indicate the general mkt sentiment. in bad times, all are not spared. in good times, all cheong. because of CM, the mkts become segmented. the segmentation is just a minor distraction, now just waiting for global crash. i can say generally we are at end bull, but when will it cross into early bear is anybody's guess.
many already prepare for a minor dip ~10%Originally Posted by Shanhz
I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)
think most of us are mentally prepared for 10-20% dip. that's what the 80% LTV (or lower) is for.Originally Posted by roly8
the worrying one is when >-40% will come. if ever.
Ccr not selling because of decentralisation of the cbd. When we purchase ocr at 1000 psqft that is the "new" historical low. U can never buy cheaper in the future.
ocr is like around 900-1000psqft nowadays..Originally Posted by indomie
is this just the starting point of some great run only?
I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)
Many prepared years ago after hearing analyst say properties will corrext 50%Originally Posted by roly8
He just wanna sell his books
I prefer to read charts at ZeroHedge and arrives at my own conclusion
Ride at your own risk !!!
No matter how the economy is doing or how much interest rate chiong, ocr at 1000 psqft is the bottom price. If any lower we would be in jakarta, bangkok, KL price's territory.Originally Posted by roly8
Anal ysts are always good at looking things backwards. Otherwise wont be called so rite.Originally Posted by chestnut
Anyway, dont time market, buy what u can afford and can hold. Properties are never to be sold anyway (except nonFH), so cycle up down dont apply.
The "late bear" stage seems so short.. very difficult to aimOriginally Posted by chestnut
If 80%LTV is to prepare for 20% crash...so new 60% LTV loan means....
What the CM is to prepare everyone for the worst..
This prudence will bring property price down especially now the govt now knows the ones who push the mkt up is neither the buyer or seller. But the banks
The so-called analyst.. talked BIG BIG correct 50%.. quietly entered the market during the last 2-yrs..Originally Posted by leesg123
As for the others.. still waiting & waiting & waiting.. end up cannot tahan.. lan lan act blur do "copy & paste" of bad news lor
Great !!!!!Originally Posted by phantom_opera
I finally found someone who can do some research and have a clue of the next recession... Signs are via charts, historical analyst, happening - like QE which alters the cause, etc....
But it gives us a clue... Not 100% but an idea...
Like looking at clouds to predict rain. Weather forecast. 4 Seasons as a guide... Winter does not happen on a specific date... It happens around a certain month...
Bro, when u spot certain signs, please let me now... I am not a chartist like u... My sign readins are different...
Thanks
Thanks for the chart Chestnut
Seems like there are different readings of the chart. Some say we are in the middle of a bull. Some say early bear. I think we are late bull
Whatever it is, buy if you can afford and also holding power and not get muddied in the amidst of playing the market
When you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth
i also say...Originally Posted by sherlock
Bro, thanks for compliment, but I cannot wear this hat... Please do not call me that... Call me bro, please... If not I will disappear... Really... I am here to learn...Originally Posted by radha08
Bro, for all investments, please be void of emotions... Unless say u bot another home and your first home rent per out... Then don't sell 1st because it holds a lot of happy memory....
My townhouse in Pasir Panjang is like this... The price is good, rental sucks big time... But refuse to sell because family home for 15 years... My entire family has good memories of it and one of my kids will inherit this place...
As for the rest of my properties, it is but a ATM machine for my old (oops) mid age retirement....
Hahahahahah
Wat I am trying to say is what goes up, must come down... As for the down, it depends on how deep and how long is the recession....Originally Posted by sherlock
Now that prices are up, we need to look out for signs of down... I think it will still go up and this year scorecard will show it...how long, how much more, i don't know... We just need to keep looking out of our window to spot dark clouds..
If it is sunny, let's go out and play....
..
This thread is so long ... my only contribution is better quickly rent out ... yield compression will strike hard soon
Ride at your own risk !!!
I agree. But please elaborate your reasons for this outlook. ThanksOriginally Posted by phantom_opera
Oh yes I agree whole-heartedly on What goes up must come down. I was caught in the 2003 bear and luckily held on (while trying to sell but no takers!) till it recovered and still managed to get one more in 2006 or I'll be crying my heart out till nowOriginally Posted by chestnut
This is a good forum and kudos to all the forummers for sharing their experiences (good or bad) which sometimes you need to pay tuition fees to learn if you want to get involved in the property market.
When you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth
My opinion, yield compression will be insignificant. Come december 15 2015 when asean economy community come into place, singapore will be inundated by wave of asean workers and investors. I don't believe sg gov is purposely building itself into over supply. No other country on earth is as nimble and agile as sg government. Or as forward planning.Originally Posted by phantom_opera
Hahahaha... Bro, I was caught in 97 and went in again in 2005 there abouts... So same route... Learn from mistake and came out smarter...Originally Posted by sherlock
Many refrain after the burn....