Reason on why do we need 6.9m?

[eng81157]

as mentioned before by many,
http://www.ura.gov.sg/conceptplan2001/index.html
The Concept Plan 2001 maps out our vision for the next 40 to 50 years. It is based on a population scenario of 5.5 million.

at this rate we are going, i won't be surprise come 2016 and assuming PAP is still in power, the magical number of 10mil will be flashed out.

we are going to be like NY, TKY, LND (even then, NY and LND are only 8mil)

[minority]

it is the sense of nationality. with more and more singaporeans working overseas, disillutioned with foreigners, PAP, etc... where is the sense of nationality? ECONOMICS, GDP is ingrained in our culture. and who created this? if Vit M is the food for survival, who cares about the survival of the nation?

i am not for or against any policy or whatever. i am just stating the facts here.

Well its a sense of fear I guess. thus the strong nation bonding is important. Also those are the NS times speak. As we worked and have assets and are more rooted the mind set changes coz u have more to loose if u run. U stay to fight for what u have invested time here.

[roly8]

6.9 million is not the real target...just that they don't want you all to be scare off !


7.5million is the real target govt want to hit!

[minority]

you are missing the point.
i said TFR, demographics, ageing population is a red herring. if you see in white paper, they only give demographic profile for citizens if no immigration, chart 1.4

now with immigration of new citizens, they cannot show something similar like chart 1.4 with different immigration scenarios? (like chart 2.7) what is the demographic profile at 2030 with different immigration scenarios.

government is not interested in demographics, they are interested in tax base. however they are using demographics as a cover.

u are missing my pt. its intertwine.. I am saying without a working population there is no tax base. which is right to say the government is interested in that. Coz without tax there is nothing to fund infra and welfare programs. which is much needed with a high % of grey population.

look at US California.. over spending and hitting a spending limit. all cilvil service schemes will be shut down if no funding.

same scenario.

[minority]

not only for tax base. if we extrapolate the extent of sentiments swung against the ruling party in the latest by-election, they would lose a whole lot of GRCs and SMCs.

just like what Mahatir is being accused of now - giving citizenships to Sabah-ians to bolster support for BN. who will these new SCs vote for likely? your guess is as good as mine

sad to see so many narrow minded folks here. I hope u have no kids or children. coz they will have to bare the burden of ur short sightless.

[Regulators]

Do you think income tax is the only tax the government collects? don't be naive.

u are missing my pt. its intertwine.. I am saying without a working population there is no tax base. which is right to say the government is interested in that. Coz without tax there is nothing to fund infra and welfare programs. which is much needed with a high % of grey population.

look at US California.. over spending and hitting a spending limit. all cilvil service schemes will be shut down if no funding.

same scenario.

[minority]

Do you think income tax is the only tax the government collects? don't be naive.

then enlighten us then..

[roly8]

then enlighten us then..

indirect tax is - CPF

[Regulators]

http://www.iras.gov.sg/irasHome/page_ektid5676.aspx

this is not considering revenue collected by ura, lta, etc.

then enlighten us then..

[minority]

indirect tax is - CPF

u can empty it to buy a place and collect rent.

Tax u pay and cannot get back.

CPF u can still utilized. they pay u interest. how is that a TAX.

[minority]

http://www.iras.gov.sg/irasHome/page_ektid5676.aspx

this is not considering revenue collected by ura, lta, etc.

yes those are consumption tax.. I rather they have consumption tax than a 1 size fit all 30% TAX for everyone across the segment.

dont want to pay u can dont consume.

[eng81157]

then enlighten us then..

wah piang, in a condo forum....LAND SALES?!!

[minority]

wah piang, in a condo forum....LAND SALES?!!

u expect it to be free? wah piang!!!!! grow a brian.

[Shanhz]

Well its a sense of fear I guess. thus the strong nation bonding is important. Also those are the NS times speak. As we worked and have assets and are more rooted the mind set changes coz u have more to loose if u run. U stay to fight for what u have invested time here.

i think this is the very reason why KBW is opening up new HDB market to singles. to root the singles b4 they run road since they are not rooted. but anyway this is one new topic by itself to talk about.

[eng81157]

u expect it to be free? wah piang!!!!! grow a brian.

hare-brained, this is in response to your question asking what other sources of income the govt has besides income tax.



oh ya, i forgot you can't really follow threads of discussions

[hopeful]

wah why minority and eng loggerhead?

anyway this simple calculation, posted previously
if need additional 700k homes, and conservative 20% is for private condo.
700.000 x 20% x 1000sf x 700psf = 98billion

i think higher than 20% will be private since the rise in citizen and pr do not justify building 560.000 homes

2012 june: 3.82mil citizens and pr
2030 4.4mil citizens and pr

an increase in 580k citizens and pr does not justify an increase in 560k HDB flats.
so if increase by 580k residents, then probably need 290k HDB flats.
so balance is 700k - 290k = 410k units private housing?

revenue from land sales for private housing 410k units x 1000sf each unit x 700psf (from land sales) = 287 billion ?
plus stamp duty, 410k x 1000 x 1200psf 3% = 14.8bil.

[eng81157]

wah why minority and eng loggerhead?

anyway this simple calculation, posted previously
if need additional 700k homes, and conservative 20% is for private condo.
700.000 x 20% x 1000sf x 700psf = 98billion

i think higher than 20% will be private since the rise in citizen and pr do not justify building 560.000 homes

2012 june: 3.82mil citizens and pr
2030 4.4mil citizens and pr

an increase in 580k citizens and pr does not justify an increase in 560k HDB flats.
so if increase by 580k residents, then probably need 290k HDB flats.
so balance is 700k - 290k = 410k units private housing?

revenue from land sales for private housing 410k units x 1000sf each unit x 700psf (from land sales) = 287 billion ?
plus stamp duty, 410k x 1000 x 1200psf 3% = 14.8bil.

2030 - 7m pop
2012 - 5.3m pop
Diff - 1.7m

Assuming 3 to 4 persons housed in one home, it gives us 400k to 560k homes. However, this method of calculation does not take into account singles living in studios, MMs, etc.

[hopeful]

2030 - 7m pop
2012 - 5.3m pop
Diff - 1.7m

Assuming 3 to 4 persons housed in one home, it gives us 400k to 560k homes. However, this method of calculation does not take into account singles living in studios, MMs, etc.

white paper mention 700k needed.

[hopeful]

i take a look at TFR.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...fertility_rate

black is the future.
green is the future.

no wonder israel resort to this measure
http://www.salon.com/2013/01/28/isra...control_shots/

[eng81157]

white paper mention 700k needed.

that's why i stated my method of calculation does not take into account singles living in studios, MMs, etc. if so, the assumption of 3 persons to a house is not valid but may be lower. let's stretch it to, perhaps, 600k.


that leaves us a shortfall of 100k of homes. lots of possible scenarios,

1. buffer stock, but do we need that much buffer? cost to govt and public coffers?
2. the extent of singles living in studio, MM is even greater than expected = i.e. ban on building MMs will be relaxed eventually
3. population of 7mil is not the end-state, govt is looking beyond 7mil liao

[Shanhz]

singles allowed to buy new hdb flats also = public MM

[minority]

hare-brained, this is in response to your question asking what other sources of income the govt has besides income tax.



oh ya, i forgot you can't really follow threads of discussions

how to follow discussion with some one who have no brain?

[leftfield]

One thing I do not understand, practically every developed country out there is facing a greying population with a declining birth rate but I hardly hear of these countries pursuing an aggressive immigration policy to sustain growth.

Singapore know something that the rest of the world don't?

[minority]

One thing I do not understand, practically every developed country out there is facing a greying population with a declining birth rate but I hardly hear of these countries pursuing an aggressive immigration policy to sustain growth.

Singapore know something that the rest of the world don't?

Coz they either have oil like brunei. or have land or sand to sell or commodity. or a big brother to kao like hong kong.

we dont.

[phantom_opera]

One thing I do not understand, practically every developed country out there is facing a greying population with a declining birth rate but I hardly hear of these countries pursuing an aggressive immigration policy to sustain growth.

Singapore know something that the rest of the world don't?

Because we must sustain high property prices ... imagine if HDB cost 100k, condo 300k then many people will not be committed to Singapore (as their asset are overseas) ... taking in more baby boomers are very easy way to manipulate property prices (and of course high land value)

Hong Kong will be our future ... 2000psf at Pasir Ris is the future

[leftfield]

Because we must sustain high property prices ... imagine if HDB cost 100k, condo 300k then many people will not be committed to Singapore (as their asset are overseas) ... taking in more baby boomers are very easy way to manipulate property prices (and of course high land value)

Hong Kong will be our future ... 2000psf at Pasir Ris is the future

Sounds suspiciously like a Ponzi scheme! Last one in kena!

Coz they either have oil like brunei. or have land or sand to sell or commodity. or a big brother to kao like hong kong.

we dont.

Hmmm. Then it will be interesting to see how countries like Taiwan and South Korea manages it then.

[phantom_opera]

Actually Singapore may hit lower & lower fertility rate over the next 10y so we may end up with even more immigrants

When u have to fork out 100k for COE or 500k for BTO ... you are denied basic quality of life .. who wants to produce or even get married if that is the case

[leftfield]

Actually Singapore may hit lower & lower fertility rate over the next 10y so we may end up with even more immigrants

When u have to fork out 100k for COE or 500k for BTO ... you are denied basic quality of life .. who wants to produce or even get married if that is the case

This fertility rate excuse is just a smoke screen. I can almost assure you that even if every couple is having 4 kids, we will still be importing people.

[phantom_opera]

This fertility rate excuse is just a smoke screen. I can almost assure you that even if every couple is having 4 kids, we will still be importing people.

if 20% are lkk retirees all vote against PAP ... jialat

so must import another 20% SC new voters to counter them lol

[leftfield]

if 20% are lkk retirees all vote against PAP ... jialat

so must import another 20% SC new voters to counter them lol

Shhhh. Importing foreign talent is to sustain economic growth not a political legacy!