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Thread: One Reason Why Recent Adjustments to Cooling Measures are Bad Signs for SG Buyers

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    Default One Reason Why Recent Adjustments to Cooling Measures are Bad Signs for SG Buyers

    Many analysts are calling the adjustments to cooling measures mild, and that they will not result in major changes in the property market.

    Here's a counter-analysis.

    Before we begin, you should note that every analyst has a private agenda, myself included. Whether that agenda is selfish or noble is a separate discussion. Some analysts want to buy cheap or buy more, some want to push for transactional numbers but do not care whether prices go up or down, some wants to sell high (nobody I know really), and some just love flowery language. But with that disclaimer out of the way, here goes my thoughts.


    One of the blind spots analysts have so far failed to consider is the impact of the various loosening measures on foreign buyers.

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...s-in-singapore

    The 2016 foreign buyers segment should total about 1,000 and is set to rise more in 2017.

    With the marginal actions taken to signal the base price level for which SG Govt is comfortable with, the signal sent out externally is that foreign buyers and current foreign owners will be well buffered from further steep falls in whichever segment they are in, and the results are most notable in the gain in prices for resales for CCR segment, a segment which many foreign buyers tend to prefer. And RCR / OCR will also follow wherever CCR goes, no doubt about that.

    The main revisions were to TDSR (twice) and SSD (once). The TDSR revisions not only exempted all owners from TDSR at refinancing, they also allowed all owners to engage in mortgage equity loans if required. Not only did this have an impact on the supply of resales properties (repossession and forced sales by banks), it also provided reassurance to existing and new (foreign included) buyers that proof of income is not required at refinancing. Together with the shortening of SSD-imposing period, the ecosystem is now much more friendly for a foreign affluent buyer (maybe with the full sum to pay up already) buying to stay or to invest.

    The 2013-2017 window has served as a clear timeframe reserving private properties for upper-middle class Singaporeans who felt they were priced out in the run up of property from 2009 to 2013. All the CMs set up in the period served primarily to deter foreigners.

    What is the base level of "foreigner" purchase?
    "The number of ABSD transactions by foreigners was 1,149 last year (2014), down from 1,980 in 2013 and 2,432 in 2012, according to the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore."

    How high can foreign participation go?
    "The proportion of purchases made by foreigners in Q2 2011 was similar to the 16% recorded in Q1 2011. In absolute terms, foreign purchases were 1,327 in Q2 2011, below the record high of 1,741 foreign purchases in Q2 2007. With the exception of one landed home in Sentosa Cove, the rest of the transactions by foreigners were for non-landed homes.

    Among non-Singaporean buyers which comprise foreigners and Permanent Residents, mainland Chinese buyers were the top non-Singaporean purchasers of residential properties in Singapore for the second consecutive quarter. They made up 26% of purchases by non-Singaporeans in Q2 2011, buying 640 units, which is a new high and more than the 527 units purchased in Q1 2011."

    According to our bargain thread on CCR properties, some CCR properties had been down by 30% or so by 2016. The ABSD served on foreigners' first and subsequent purchase (15%) now seemed relatively small in relation to the price drops. Moreover, there are some countries that are exempt from ABSD - although their home country property prices are nowhere near SG prices, there will be some that will commit having understood Asian mentalities about properties.

    At the same time, we did see huge run up in property prices everywhere else in the world - HK, major cities in China, Australia etc etc (some few hundred %), at a time our prices fell by 11.2% overall.

    With the recent tweaks in the CMs, the clear signal is that enough has been done to pull back prices and allowing qualified Singaporeans to purchase properties (some with ABSD). The groups that we will be welcoming back are the foreign buyers that qualify (some having to pay taxes to support our revenue starved Government).
    Last edited by Kelonguni; 15-03-17 at 10:09.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    And yes, interest rates are going up (for US and SG). But most of these foreigners are used to seeing interest rates of 5-12% in their home country.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    I used to see 5-6% interest rate.. till now, i dont see the big noise about Fed rate.

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    Bro Bargain Hunter, this is my original article leh.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Bro Bargain Hunter, this is my original article leh.
    sorry, the volume on the forum was so low, so i no longer login regularly. that's why i needed your latest post for me to pick it up.

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    The TDSR revisions not only exempted all owners from TDSR at refinancing, they also allowed all owners to engage in mortgage equity loans if required.

    This one more interesting, how many are there in this "mortgage equity loans".

    I am one of them in 2011 before ABSD. bought my first private in 2006.

    So the owner of the property before 2006 will be in this game.

    Wonder how many of such player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    The TDSR revisions not only exempted all owners from TDSR at refinancing, they also allowed all owners to engage in mortgage equity loans if required.

    This one more interesting, how many are there in this "mortgage equity loans".

    I am one of them in 2011 before ABSD. bought my first private in 2006.

    So the owner of the property before 2006 will be in this game.

    Wonder how many of such player.
    haha, u were just complaining last year that u fail TDSR left right centre. now u r back in this game as a potential buyer.

    i think there are many old rich in this category. darn it, they withdrew all their SELL CCR adverts after the ruling!

    even for those conservative purchasers (of 2006 and before) who are now retired, they suddenly find themselves in a position to purchase should opportunities arise. Doesn't mean they will rush in but it is a supporting force should prices weaken further.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter View Post
    haha, u were just complaining last year that u fail TDSR left right centre. now u r back in this game as a potential buyer.

    i think there are many old rich in this category. darn it, they withdrew all their SELL CCR adverts after the ruling!

    even for those conservative purchasers (of 2006 and before) who are now retired, they suddenly find themselves in a position to purchase should opportunities arise. Doesn't mean they will rush in but it is a supporting force should prices weaken further.
    Agree, they will not rush in but how many 10 years do they have.

    Visit the nursing Home and Mandai will change ones look at life.



    https://www.facebook.com/DePeLabirin...4/?pnref=story

    Where are you now decide what you do next.
    Last edited by Arcachon; 18-03-17 at 19:27.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Agree, they will not rush in but how many 10 years do they have.

    Visit the nursing Home and Mandai will change ones look at life.



    https://www.facebook.com/DePeLabirin...4/?pnref=story

    Where are you now decide what you do next.
    HDB is 100% for Singaporeans and PRs and those in future are willing to be called Singaporeans.

    Land is also 100% for Singaporeans / PRs?

    Private strata is supposed to be maybe about 50-75% for Singaporeans / PRs and the remaining % are for foreigners. Same principle for most other countries, no reason to expect or arrange otherwise.

    Those who think the prices will drop to allow all Singaporeans who want to buy to get what they want will have a lot of disappointments in the roads ahead...

    Transactions will spike in 2017 - hope fellow Singaporeans can still get what they are looking for.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    I still believe property price especially OCR will crash by 2020.......... Reversion to the mean over past about 12 years...........

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    HDB is 100% for Singaporeans and PRs and those in future are willing to be called Singaporeans.

    Land is also 100% for Singaporeans / PRs?

    Private strata is supposed to be maybe about 50-75% for Singaporeans / PRs and the remaining % are for foreigners. Same principle for most other countries, no reason to expect or arrange otherwise.

    Those who think the prices will drop to allow all Singaporeans who want to buy to get what they want will have a lot of disappointments in the roads ahead...

    Transactions will spike in 2017 - hope fellow Singaporeans can still get what they are looking for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    I still believe property price especially OCR will crash by 2020.......... Reversion to the mean over past about 12 years...........
    Have been explaining the red dot concept with you for the last 5 years...

    Drop a bit can but not possible to revert to mean lah... even US says it is recovering from the financial crisis of 2008...
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Let's scrutinize your red dot concept and whether it can stand up to scrutiny.........

    Bishan:
    1997: S$1400+ psf.
    2005: S$800+ psf.
    2008: S$1300+ psf.
    2009: S$1000+ psf.
    2016: S$1300+ psf.

    From 1997 to 2005, the price dropped (800-1500)/1500 = -47% !!!!!!!
    From 2008 to 2009, the price dropped (1000-1300)/1300 = -23% !!!!!!!

    So the red dot concept failed!
    In fact, the property price can drop for a consecutive 8 LONG YEARS despite Singapore being a LITTLE RED DOT!

    Similar situation can be seen almost everywhere in Singapore!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Have been explaining the red dot concept with you for the last 5 years...

    Drop a bit can but not possible to revert to mean lah... even US says it is recovering from the financial crisis of 2008...

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    Can find another place that is more representative of OCR boh? Bishan very central leh...

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Let's scrutinize your red dot concept and whether it can stand up to scrutiny.........

    Bishan:
    1997: S$1400+ psf.
    2005: S$800+ psf.
    2008: S$1300+ psf.
    2009: S$1000+ psf.
    2016: S$1300+ psf.

    From 1997 to 2005, the price dropped (800-1500)/1500 = -47% !!!!!!!
    From 2008 to 2009, the price dropped (1000-1300)/1300 = -23% !!!!!!!

    So the red dot concept failed!
    In fact, the property price can drop for a consecutive 8 LONG YEARS despite Singapore being a LITTLE RED DOT!

    Similar situation can be seen almost everywhere in Singapore!
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Come on, Bishan is not in CCR, how can be very central?
    You mean you want to take Tuas or Woodlands?????

    Anyway, if 1 place in Singapore does not satisfy your "red dot" concept means your concept failed and does not apply universally, why need to take so many places when some more other places will also failed????????

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Can find another place that is more representative of OCR boh? Bishan very central leh...

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    Thumbs down

    When we want to show a particular point, we use representative areas that are typical.

    And there may be exceptions that do not follow but the general trend and average case follows our concerns or theory. That is the reason why we calculate mean and averages.

    You should take Tuas, Woodlands, Clementi, Jurong East, Paya Lebar, Punggol and Sengkang to track.

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Come on, Bishan is not in CCR, how can be very central?
    You mean you want to take Tuas or Woodlands?????

    Anyway, if 1 place in Singapore does not satisfy your "red dot" concept means your concept failed and does not apply universally, why need to take so many places when some more other places will also failed????????
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Ok, then you can show us your average for all the places to prove your point then, I eagerly await................


    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    When we want to show a particular point, we use representative areas that are typical.

    And there may be exceptions that do not follow but the general trend and average case follows our concerns or theory. That is the reason why we calculate mean and averages.

    You should take Tuas, Woodlands, Clementi, Jurong East, Paya Lebar, Punggol and Sengkang to track.

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    杀鸡何须用牛刀?
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    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    The new 50% no TDSR test neede is for equity loan and refinancing, so if one is to buy a new house, TDSR will still apply. I do not understand why the inconsistency.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pynchmail View Post
    The new 50% no TDSR test neede is for equity loan and refinancing, so if one is to buy a new house, TDSR will still apply. I do not understand why the inconsistency.
    One who already created the Money the other have not create.

    2008 the Whole World have been creating lot of money, now still creating.

    Singapore already follow the US, they create Money we create control measure to absorb the money.

    Then we create Money for infrastructure, education, medical etc.

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    Many people forget that TDSR was the straw that broke the camel's back in 2013. Nobody has any real clue why then. Now, with the revisions to the TDSR principles, most still see the impact as marginal. Most of these are thankfully invisible to most.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pynchmail View Post
    The new 50% no TDSR test neede is for equity loan and refinancing, so if one is to buy a new house, TDSR will still apply. I do not understand why the inconsistency.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    In case you don't know, that kind statistics mask a lot of things.........
    Otherwise if you look at the chart, it looks like OCR are terribly overpriced since its index is much higher than CCR! Like that OCR sure crashed lah!


    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    杀鸡何须用牛刀?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Many people forget that TDSR was the straw that broke the camel's back in 2013. Nobody has any real clue why then. Now, with the revisions to the TDSR principles, most still see the impact as marginal. Most of these are thankfully invisible to most.
    The impact may be great. For example, if I have a $2m property that is fully paid. I can draw out $1m. With this $1m, I can buy and fully pay a $1m property and draw out $500k. With a fully paid $500k property, I can draw out $250k and fully pay a $250k property and draw out $125k. Total loan becomes:

    1. $2m property, draw out $1m. Loan $1m.
    2. $1m property, draw out $500k. Total loan $1.5m.
    3. $500k property, draw out $250k. Total loan $1.75m.
    4. $250k property, draw out $125k. Total loan $1.875m.

    So, I now have total 4 property ($2m+$1m+$500k+$250k = $3.75m) and have total loan of $1.875m.

    So this relaxation of TDSR can give me the chance to buy 3 more properties, but each subsequent one being half the price of the earlier one.

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    So, it is clear that this TDSR changes is a relaxation of property cooling measures?

    But why Gov claimed that the changes is not a relaxation of property cooling measures?

    By allowing people to loan more, it is a property loan relaxation measures!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pynchmail View Post
    The impact may be great. For example, if I have a $2m property that is fully paid. I can draw out $1m. With this $1m, I can buy and fully pay a $1m property and draw out $500k. With a fully paid $500k property, I can draw out $250k and fully pay a $250k property and draw out $125k. Total loan becomes:

    1. $2m property, draw out $1m. Loan $1m.
    2. $1m property, draw out $500k. Total loan $1.5m.
    3. $500k property, draw out $250k. Total loan $1.75m.
    4. $250k property, draw out $125k. Total loan $1.875m.

    So, I now have total 4 property ($2m+$1m+$500k+$250k = $3.75m) and have total loan of $1.875m.

    So this relaxation of TDSR can give me the chance to buy 3 more properties, but each subsequent one being half the price of the earlier one.

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    2009 is actually close to a decade ago.

    Soon the index will all be re-based to a different year, maybe 2018, 2020, whatever. When that happens, it will be the time of the new equilibrium and fresh starting points.

    Identify the ground conditions, and one will always be able to find the best deals. You yourself concluded that the statistics mask a lot of things, but by and large, the largest gains by proportion in the last 10 years still belong to the OCR.

    If you study the entry level small car prices versus the large luxury car prices the same situation can be observed.


    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    In case you don't know, that kind statistics mask a lot of things.........
    Otherwise if you look at the chart, it looks like OCR are terribly overpriced since its index is much higher than CCR! Like that OCR sure crashed lah!
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    So, it is clear that this TDSR changes is a relaxation of property cooling measures?

    But why Gov claimed that the changes is not a relaxation of property cooling measures?

    By allowing people to loan more, it is a property loan relaxation measures!
    The TDSR from the beginning is a severely unfair policy for those vested early in the property market, especially the part about not being able to refinance.

    A property also has value or is an asset only if it's value can be unlocked in times of need. I feel the relaxation is more to fulfil it's natural asset function rather than to allow loaning more, even though some owners will also utilise that. The psychology of the relaxation is more impactful than the owners going for maximum loan, and I can't be sure how many will take it up.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pynchmail View Post
    The impact may be great. For example, if I have a $2m property that is fully paid. I can draw out $1m. With this $1m, I can buy and fully pay a $1m property and draw out $500k. With a fully paid $500k property, I can draw out $250k and fully pay a $250k property and draw out $125k. Total loan becomes:

    1. $2m property, draw out $1m. Loan $1m.
    2. $1m property, draw out $500k. Total loan $1.5m.
    3. $500k property, draw out $250k. Total loan $1.75m.
    4. $250k property, draw out $125k. Total loan $1.875m.

    So, I now have total 4 property ($2m+$1m+$500k+$250k = $3.75m) and have total loan of $1.875m.

    So this relaxation of TDSR can give me the chance to buy 3 more properties, but each subsequent one being half the price of the earlier one.
    but this brilliant idea, how realistic is it in implmentation? can u imagine the old rich with a gcb? draw out 50% whack another unit half its price and so on? they can easily own more than 10 more units if the banks allow it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pynchmail View Post
    The impact may be great. For example, if I have a $2m property that is fully paid. I can draw out $1m. With this $1m, I can buy and fully pay a $1m property and draw out $500k. With a fully paid $500k property, I can draw out $250k and fully pay a $250k property and draw out $125k. Total loan becomes:

    1. $2m property, draw out $1m. Loan $1m.
    2. $1m property, draw out $500k. Total loan $1.5m.
    3. $500k property, draw out $250k. Total loan $1.75m.
    4. $250k property, draw out $125k. Total loan $1.875m.

    So, I now have total 4 property ($2m+$1m+$500k+$250k = $3.75m) and have total loan of $1.875m.

    So this relaxation of TDSR can give me the chance to buy 3 more properties, but each subsequent one being half the price of the earlier one.
    The same bank which approve your equity-loan will not provide you another loan to buy your next property using the cash you get from the equity-loan. Equity loan means the loan is for anything else other than property. You may get around this problem by getting your next property loan from another bank bearing in mind that you will also be subjected to ABSD.

    If you leverage this way and if prices fall 30%, your $3.75m worth of properties will be worth $2.625m. Your total loan is only $1.875m so you are still not under water. In the worst case scenario, you loose your job and need to sell all of your investment properties to pay for the loan of $1.875m, you are still cash positive of $750K. Effectively, your $2m become $750K due to your leverage in multiple property.

    If you have $2m fully paid property, the government is not overly concern with this group of people since you can afford to loose $1.25m if things really turn bad. If the $2m property is your only asset, you are likely to downgrade to a resale HDB flat if things are not going your way.
    Last edited by Amber Woods; 19-03-17 at 18:50.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter View Post
    but this brilliant idea, how realistic is it in implmentation? can u imagine the old rich with a gcb? draw out 50% whack another unit half its price and so on? they can easily own more than 10 more units if the banks allow it?
    In practice, only a few groups might do it.

    1. Cashing out to support children in property purchase or other needs.
    2. Cashing out for retirement needs.
    3. Making use of the still low interest rate

    These people do not need another loan if they have enough cash and CPF at hand to pay off the new property in whole. They likely will have to pay ABSD unless its their children or relative purchasing (first owner).

    Whether many take up this option remains to be seen (like the Silver sheme for HDB lease purchase). But having an additional scheme does support the market by further qualifying the already rich who likely prefers property as assets.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    In practice, only a few groups might do it.

    1. Cashing out to support children in property purchase or other needs.
    2. Cashing out for retirement needs.
    3. Making use of the still low interest rate

    These people do not need another loan if they have enough cash and CPF at hand to pay off the new property in whole. They likely will have to pay ABSD unless its their children or relative purchasing (first owner).

    Whether many take up this option remains to be seen (like the Silver sheme for HDB lease purchase). But having an additional scheme does support the market by further qualifying the already rich who likely prefers property as assets.
    what about a hardcore property investor/believer who is a retiree/semi-retiree and had hands tied for 5 years. (sounds like one of our bros here). kekeke.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter View Post
    what about a hardcore property investor/believer who is a retiree/semi-retiree and had hands tied for 5 years. (sounds like one of our bros here). kekeke.
    Luckily he has too much in loans and unlikely to meet 50% payment for the ones he has. Heng arh.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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