How much will the price drop?

[richwang]

Is there anyone having a pricing model to calculate how much the price will drop? My guess is 10% - 20%. Here is my crude calculation:

Imgine someone with S$300K cash in hand. In the old rule (20% down paymen), together with the 80% money borrowed from bank, he could afford S$1.5M property.
Now with the new rule (30% down payment), he can only afford S$1M property. So the property price will need to drop from S$1.5M to S$1M. That is $0.5M / $1.5M = 33%.
Of course, the developer will will drop that much, the buyer will have to save more. Let's take the mid point, the price will drop about 15%. And give it a range, so the price will drop 10% - 20%.

Any professional has better model? Taking into the population change, overall economy inputs, interest rate, piple line suply, etc, etc.

I am wondering how the developers come up with the price they bid for a land ... or how the govenment decide how much land to release.

Thanks,
Richard

[Squall8888]

I don't see it this way. Not everyone is limited by the 70% rule. Coupled with the strong (and growing rental), worst scenario is prices remain the same. If you are seller, will you sell? I assume most sellers are investors. Not many sellers are home owners - sell already move where? Of course, there are some who need to sell urgently like those who buy HDB and need to dispose off their private but then again, how many people will buy HDB taking the new rules into consideration?

And lastly, sell already do what with the money? Buy another property, you will need to come up with 30% DP. Might as well hold and collect the high rental. No difference anyway. 3 years already collect how much rental? And low interest + strong economy, the worst is 5% IMO.

I can see your point. Your point is that people got not enough money to buy private but yet, die die want to buy. In other words, sellers and developers lower their price to allow "unworthy" buyers to buy. Don't think it works this way. Those without enough money will get filtered off. Another market segment will fit them. Very small MM units. Also, based on the current situation, it is not as if there are no buyers. Although it is slower, units are still getting sold. Unless 6 months without a single transaction, I don't think prices will drop 20%. As I mentioned, maybe a few weak owners selling below market price but won't have that much transactions to make an impact. Don't forget, the last few downturns are caused by economic meltdown (absent for now) and rental dropped 50% during 2008/2009. Based on these 2 factors, I seriously doubt of any major price correction.





Is there anyone having a pricing model to calculate how much the price will drop? My guess is 10% - 20%. Here is my crude calculation:

Imgine someone with S$300K cash in hand. In the old rule (20% down paymen), together with the 80% money borrowed from bank, he could afford S$1.5M property.
Now with the new rule (30% down payment), he can only afford S$1M property. So the property price will need to drop from S$1.5M to S$1M. That is $0.5M / $1.5M = 33%.
Of course, the developer will will drop that much, the buyer will have to save more. Let's take the mid point, the price will drop about 15%. And give it a range, so the price will drop 10% - 20%.

Any professional has better model? Taking into the population change, overall economy inputs, interest rate, piple line suply, etc, etc.

I am wondering how the developers come up with the price they bid for a land ... or how the govenment decide how much land to release.

Thanks,
Richard

[jasonyap]

At the first place, your calculation is wrong, so as your mindset.

300k cash can't afford 1.5m, probably you've forgotten bout the stamp duty and so...

The down payment increased from 20 to 30 does not means the price will drop by 33%. Don't be naive!

With the current strong growth, it would be shame if the price drop by single %. I presume property price will increase steadily in next few years.

[nobrainer32007]

Squall8888, can tell that you are a seasoned investor / observer, unlike those who tok c*k sing song :banghead: with no fundamentals.

Mark my word, based on the fundamentals of demand (open immigration policy unlike that of Japan for example; IR effects attracting investors from China, Indonesia and Malaysia who come gamble, shopping and seek medical treatment and at the same time send kids to school in Singapore) and supply (land scarce country - forget about short term imbalance as it will correct in mid-to-long term - the only way is up - both in price and plot ratio), prices of mid-tier and high end properties will rise at least by 30% in 5 years' time.

2003 got SARs. Any major impact when we have H1N1 in recent years.
2008 got Lehman collapse. Any major impact when government in Middle East and Europe almost went bankrupt recently?

Message : People learned and adapt to adversities.

We need a major new event (like World War III) to property prices in Singapore to collapse by 30 - 50%. What is the probability??


For those interested and with vested interest, ignore all those noises and focus on the fundamentals :spliff2:






I don't see it this way. Not everyone is limited by the 70% rule. Coupled with the strong (and growing rental), worst scenario is prices remain the same. If you are seller, will you sell? I assume most sellers are investors. Not many sellers are home owners - sell already move where? Of course, there are some who need to sell urgently like those who buy HDB and need to dispose off their private but then again, how many people will buy HDB taking the new rules into consideration?

And lastly, sell already do what with the money? Buy another property, you will need to come up with 30% DP. Might as well hold and collect the high rental. No difference anyway. 3 years already collect how much rental? And low interest + strong economy, the worst is 5% IMO.

I can see your point. Your point is that people got not enough money to buy private but yet, die die want to buy. In other words, sellers and developers lower their price to allow "unworthy" buyers to buy. Don't think it works this way. Those without enough money will get filtered off. Another market segment will fit them. Very small MM units. Also, based on the current situation, it is not as if there are no buyers. Although it is slower, units are still getting sold. Unless 6 months without a single transaction, I don't think prices will drop 20%. As I mentioned, maybe a few weak owners selling below market price but won't have that much transactions to make an impact. Don't forget, the last few downturns are caused by economic meltdown (absent for now) and rental dropped 50% during 2008/2009. Based on these 2 factors, I seriously doubt of any major price correction.

[devilplate]

some say STI and ppty price r correlated....

STI broke 3100pts!:spliff:

[richwang]

some say STI and ppty price r correlated....

STI broke 3100pts!:spliff:

Amazing! I have just bought some Genting Put Warrenty. In other words, I am betting Genting price to drop below S$1.8 in 127 days. Otherwise I will loss ALL my bets on this counter.

Will need to find some Put Warrenty for property stocks - simply because it seems everyone else is unbelievablely bullish.

Thanks,
Richard

[devilplate]

Amazing! I have just bought some Genting Put Warrenty. In other words, I am betting Genting price to drop below S$1.8 in 127 days. Otherwise I will loss ALL my bets on this counter.

Will need to find some Put Warrenty for property stocks - simply because it seems everyone else is unbelievablely bullish.

Thanks,
Richard

oo...u like to fight against the trend

y nid to drop so much until 1.8?? nvr keen on warrant

might as well short sell?

[bargain hunter]

but ppty stocks have not run up that much and they are so far away from 2007 peak prices. the "unbelievablely bullish" sentiment reflected in this forum and on the ground is not reflected in the stock price. maybe not so profitable to be bearish on ppty stocks. ;)

i am happy u started this topic. the number of pple who slam u will give us an indicator of how many pple are bullish or get agitated by any talk of prices falling. :ashamed1:





Amazing! I have just bought some Genting Put Warrenty. In other words, I am betting Genting price to drop below S$1.8 in 127 days. Otherwise I will loss ALL my bets on this counter.

Will need to find some Put Warrenty for property stocks - simply because it seems everyone else is unbelievablely bullish.

Thanks,
Richard

[bargain hunter]

remember i was saying hot money now flowing to stocks? apparently so leh and ppty had outperformed stocks for so long liao, now is stocks turn to outperform LOL.



some say STI and ppty price r correlated....

STI broke 3100pts!:spliff:

[richwang]

but ppty stocks have not run up that much and they are so far away from 2007 peak prices. the "unbelievablely bullish" sentiment reflected in this forum and on the ground is not reflected in the stock price. maybe not so profitable to be bearish on ppty stocks. ;)

i am happy u started this topic. the number of pple who slam u will give us an indicator of how many pple are bullish or get agitated by any talk of prices falling. :ashamed1:

I also use other indicators on this forum: the number of people logged in. It used to be 600+ and sometimes 1000+. But now it can be as low as 200+. You can also see the replies are getting slower.

Funny enough, I also use the indicator of how many people coming up with dirty words:
If they are happy and truely believe the market will go up, they will smilling words.
If they are unsecure and fear the market will indeed go down, they tend to use dirty words.

So feel free to slam my views: I will just count how many dirty words as an indicator.

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

oo...u like to fight against the trend

y nid to drop so much until 1.8?? nvr keen on warrant

might as well short sell?

Well, I am indeed a trend follower: MACD of Genting has just turned negative. Price to Book Value is 6. In other words, the market believes the company can grow money at F1 speed. Early this month, it was still traded at S$1.8. That was less than 30 days ago.

Indeed, I've also bought the warrent with stike price of S$1.4. That's too aggresive. But the price on Aug 12 was below S$1.4. Even at that price, the Price to Book Value is still 4. So the market believes Casino can easily turn S$1 to S$4. Maybe they are right - I will then need to pay my tuition fees in 100 days time (when the warrent expires).

Thanks,
Richard

[devilplate]

remember i was saying hot money now flowing to stocks? apparently so leh and ppty had outperformed stocks for so long liao, now is stocks turn to outperform LOL.

gd la huat ar!!

[devilplate]

I also use other indicators on this forum: the number of people logged in. It used to be 600+ and sometimes 1000+. But now it can be as low as 200+. You can also see the replies are getting slower.

Funny enough, I also use the indicator of how many people coming up with dirty words:
If they are happy and truely believe the market will go up, they will smilling words.
If they are unsecure and fear the market will indeed go down, they tend to use dirty words.

So feel free to slam my views: I will just count how many dirty words as an indicator.

Thanks,
Richard

actually i am surprised tat there r still some ppl very bullish over here...

on the ground, all the buyers r hoping to get a bargain deal now....

[devilplate]

Well, I am indeed a trend follower: MACD of Genting has just turned negative. Price to Book Value is 6. In other words, the market believes the company can grow money at F1 speed. Early this month, it was still traded at S$1.8. That was less than 30 days ago.

Indeed, I've also bought the warrent with stike price of S$1.4. That's too aggresive. But the price on Aug 12 was below S$1.4. Even at that price, the Price to Book Value is still 4. So the market believes Casino can easily turn S$1 to S$4. Maybe they are right - I will then need to pay my tuition fees in 100 days time (when the warrent expires).

Thanks,
Richard

my question is: y u dunwan to short sell instead?

btw, reminds me of a fren who ask me to short genting at 1.8....u r in a better position definitely:cheers6:

[bargain hunter]

i agree with u for your indicators. but how u keep track of the dirty words? count every post?! :)

i also noticed that other than the bickering on "how to get from newton to anson in 5mins" last week, the forum is actually very quiet. :D




I also use other indicators on this forum: the number of people logged in. It used to be 600+ and sometimes 1000+. But now it can be as low as 200+. You can also see the replies are getting slower.

Funny enough, I also use the indicator of how many people coming up with dirty words:
If they are happy and truely believe the market will go up, they will smilling words.
If they are unsecure and fear the market will indeed go down, they tend to use dirty words.

So feel free to slam my views: I will just count how many dirty words as an indicator.

Thanks,
Richard

[bargain hunter]

this is a forum mah. talk is free, last chance to talk up market here. :D

but more seriously, this is good. Then Richard can get more data to analyse based on the number of pple who slam him. :)


actually i am surprised tat there r still some ppl very bullish over here...

on the ground, all the buyers r hoping to get a bargain deal now....

[devilplate]

i agree with u for your indicators. but how u keep track of the dirty words? count every post?! :)

i also noticed that other than the bickering on "how to get from newton to anson in 5mins" last week, the forum is actually very quiet. :D

earlier on, bicker about the number of MRT stops to orchard:D

all busy viewing and bargaining now....no time to come here:D

[proud owner]

this is a forum mah. talk is free, last chance to talk up market here. :D

but more seriously, this is good. Then Richard can get more data to analyse based on the number of pple who slam him. :)


the 2 most bullish people : Jlrx and Reporter ..both disappeared ...


or have they reincarnated to be someone else now ? using other names ?

[devilplate]

the 2 most bullish people : Jlrx and Reporter ..both disappeared ...


or have they reincarnated to be someone else now ? using other names ?

u r so emotional attached wor?

busying hunting for gd deals la....now all the buyers say 'cooling measures' sure drop!!! den offer 5-10% lower market value

[august]

Mark my word, based on the fundamentals of demand (open immigration policy unlike that of Japan for example; IR effects attracting investors from China, Indonesia and Malaysia who come gamble, shopping and seek medical treatment and at the same time send kids to school in Singapore) and supply (land scarce country - forget about short term imbalance as it will correct in mid-to-long term - the only way is up - both in price and plot ratio), prices of mid-tier and high end properties will rise at least by 30% in 5 years' time.


need to also look at regional or other asian property mkts lah, high end are influenced by influx of foreign funds & investors, and these wont come in if Sg is relatively overpriced compared to others.

[bargain hunter]

maybe all chiong into stock market liao. may find them in some stock forum hahaha. maybe if u see posts like genting hits new high of $3.00. u will know who it is. :tongue3:


earlier on, bicker about the number of MRT stops to orchard:D

all busy viewing and bargaining now....no time to come here:D

[proud owner]

u r so emotional attached wor?

busying hunting for gd deals la....now all the buyers say 'cooling measures' sure drop!!! den offer 5-10% lower market value

the 2 of them are like God to me

suddenly they disappeared .. i am so lost

should i still practise "Properties are to be bought only, and not sold ... unless its enbloc " ??/

should i still be looking out for NEW HIGH ??

[proud owner]

need to also look at regional or other asian property mkts lah, high end are influenced by influx of foreign funds & investors, and these wont come in if Sg is relatively overpriced compared to others.


true


what puzzled me was : why GS fund sold Chevron House at a loss ?

although they took profit on DBS tower 1 n 2 ...


why take profit ? and cut loss ?
did GS fund think property price in spore "there" already ? cant go higher ?

or theres internal problem that they need to liquidate them ?

[bargain hunter]

if i m not wrong, he advised to start chanting if prices do indeed start to go down so nothing's changed. just chant loyally whether market goes up or down.



the 2 of them are like God to me

suddenly they disappeared .. i am so lost

should i still practise "Properties are to be bought only, and not sold ... unless its enbloc " ??/

should i still be looking out for NEW HIGH ??

[devilplate]

need to also look at regional or other asian property mkts lah, high end are influenced by influx of foreign funds & investors, and these wont come in if Sg is relatively overpriced compared to others.

how to justify whether the market price is overpriced?

i been hearing poor china ppl complaining...NO JOBS! they actually scared of graduation....'pi yeh'=='shi yeh'....i even heard stories tat fresh graduates over there offering themselves to work first 1-2yrs FOC just to get the job experience:scared-5:

[bargain hunter]

From BT last week

"The property is being sold by Goldman Sachs funds, which are walking away with a loss, having paid $730 million or about $2,780 psf for the property in 2007. That acquisition was funded mostly by a consortium of lenders headed by Standard Chartered. The latest transaction is slated for completion by late October, ahead of the expiry of the financing facility, sources say."

it appears that either they don't want or can't refinance.


true


what puzzled me was : why GS fund sold Chevron House at a loss ?

although they took profit on DBS tower 1 n 2 ...


why take profit ? and cut loss ?
did GS fund think property price in spore "there" already ? cant go higher ?

or theres internal problem that they need to liquidate them ?

[bargain hunter]

later in the article, it also said

"The US bank's funds also bought Hitachi Tower, behind Chevron House, in early 2008 for $811 million or about $2,900 psf of NLA. The 999-year leasehold office tower, fronting Collyer Quay, is expected to be put up for sale within the next few months given that the financing facility on the asset - also extended by a Stanchart-led consortium - is said to end early next year."

they are selling somemore!

[proud owner]

Is there anyone having a pricing model to calculate how much the price will drop? My guess is 10% - 20%. Here is my crude calculation:

Imgine someone with S$300K cash in hand. In the old rule (20% down paymen), together with the 80% money borrowed from bank, he could afford S$1.5M property.
Now with the new rule (30% down payment), he can only afford S$1M property. So the property price will need to drop from S$1.5M to S$1M. That is $0.5M / $1.5M = 33%.
Of course, the developer will will drop that much, the buyer will have to save more. Let's take the mid point, the price will drop about 15%. And give it a range, so the price will drop 10% - 20%.

Any professional has better model? Taking into the population change, overall economy inputs, interest rate, piple line suply, etc, etc.

I am wondering how the developers come up with the price they bid for a land ... or how the govenment decide how much land to release.

Thanks,
Richard

actually i did think of this as well ..

in your example .. its the group of buyers who has 300k


in my own thoughts ..theres the group with 600k who could afford 3 mio property ... but now can only afford 2-2.2 mio property

mind you these people are not poor ... to have $500-700 cash ...

so should they wait and safe more ?

or should seller be 'realistic' ?

Spore GDP how many % ? 10 % ?

property price from jan 2010 to sep 2010 went up how many % ?

some cases ..prices are up almost 10 % every quarter ...

sustainable ?

[devilplate]

the 2 of them are like God to me

suddenly they disappeared .. i am so lost

should i still practise "Properties are to be bought only, and not sold ... unless its enbloc " ??/

should i still be looking out for NEW HIGH ??

starting to see more opportunistic water ghosts appearing in the forum lately....

[august]

how to justify whether the market price is overpriced?

i been hearing poor china ppl complaining...NO JOBS! they actually scared of graduation....'pi yeh'=='shi yeh'....i even heard stories tat fresh graduates over there offering themselves to work first 1-2yrs FOC just to get the job experience:scared-5:

that has been the case for yearsssssssss ...
so wat? SG property is not going to tank or chiong bcos of such ppl in china lol

[Wild Falcon]

A tale of 2 cities? Looks like developers will hold on to their unsold inventory of "high-end" developments (i.e. TOP with only a handful of units sold), and wait for a white knight to enbloc? I think it would be quite sad to move into a condo with only 9% sold....



=====


OCBC 23 Sep 2010


NV launches successfully.

We visited two City Development (CDL) residential projects this past weekend that were poles apart in terms of both positioning and interest. We were the only visitors at Residences at W Singapore early Sunday afternoon. In contrast, NV Residences' show-flat was packed to the rafters that day, launching successfully this month despite the Aug 30 property measures. The 642-unit project is located next to CDL's Livia development in Pasir Ris. When we visited, substantially all of the two-bedroom units were already sold out. We understand average prices are in the S$830-850 per square foot range. According to media reports, 300 units have been sold in nearly two weeks (~47% overall project take-up).




Low take-up for W even as completion nears.

Sentosa Cove's Residences at W Singapore is billed as a 'lifestyle concept', riding on the adjoining W Hotel, which will be ready in ~1.5 years. The project is being marketed as a second home and maid quarters are not given as residents are expected to utilize the W's housekeeping services. The showflat we visited is apparently two years old and will soon be moved to an actual unit, and is likely to be "ready for move-in by Christmas" according to an agent. Prices start at S$2800psf. Interest has been low with 21 units sold as of end-Aug (~9% project take-up) - we understand the twobedroom units were the first to go.



Quantum still counts.

The different reception for the two projects supports our view that while the property market has heated up on a psf basis, buyers are still shying away from a high absolute price quantum. Even at NV Residences, the smallest units were snapped up first. Sales at Residences at W Singapore may have also been affected by unfamiliarity with the W Hotel and the "condotel" concept. Nevertheless, the project's prime location and its undeniable lifestyle status means CDL can afford to wait sales out. Interest may pick up as W Hotel and the commercial area begin to take shape. The limited supply of condominium units in Sentosa Cove is icing on the cake. At the 2Q10 results, CDL mentioned it could retain at least 100 units for medium to long-term strategic investment or for en bloc sales "if the price is right".

[devilplate]

actually i did think of this as well ..

in your example .. its the group of buyers who has 300k


in my own thoughts ..theres the group with 600k who could afford 3 mio property ... but now can only afford 2-2.2 mio property

mind you these people are not poor ... to have $500-700 cash ...

so should they wait and safe more ?

or should seller be 'realistic' ?

Spore GDP how many % ? 10 % ?

property price from jan 2010 to sep 2010 went up how many % ?

some cases ..prices are up almost 10 % every quarter ...

sustainable ?

GDP and ppty prices may only correlates by taking a longer span of time la...

y 2009 ppty prices crash 30-40% within 6mths while GDP minus by a few % points?

[devilplate]

that has been the case for yearsssssssss ...
so wat? SG property is not going to tank or chiong bcos of such ppl in china lol

so how to justify whether the ppty market is overpriced??? hehe....

[august]

so how to justify whether the ppty market is overpriced??? hehe....

can look at HK prices.. SG was getting close
whether over or under priced only u can make the call hehe :p

[devilplate]

A tale of 2 cities? Looks like developers will hold on to their unsold inventory of "high-end" developments (i.e. TOP with only a handful of units sold), and wait for a white knight to enbloc? I think it would be quite sad to move into a condo with only 9% sold....




=====


OCBC 23 Sep 2010


NV launches successfully.


We visited two City Development (CDL) residential projects this past weekend that were poles apart in terms of both positioning and interest. We were the only visitors at Residences at W Singapore early Sunday afternoon. In contrast, NV Residences' show-flat was packed to the rafters that day, launching successfully this month despite the Aug 30 property measures. The 642-unit project is located next to CDL's Livia development in Pasir Ris. When we visited, substantially all of the two-bedroom units were already sold out. We understand average prices are in the S$830-850 per square foot range. According to media reports, 300 units have been sold in nearly two weeks (~47% overall project take-up).







Low take-up for W even as completion nears.



Sentosa Cove's Residences at W Singapore is billed as a 'lifestyle concept', riding on the adjoining W Hotel, which will be ready in ~1.5 years. The project is being marketed as a second home and maid quarters are not given as residents are expected to utilize the W's housekeeping services. The showflat we visited is apparently two years old and will soon be moved to an actual unit, and is likely to be "ready for move-in by Christmas" according to an agent. Prices start at S$2800psf. Interest has been low with 21 units sold as of end-Aug (~9% project take-up) - we understand the twobedroom units were the first to go.





Quantum still counts.



The different reception for the two projects supports our view that while the property market has heated up on a psf basis, buyers are still shying away from a high absolute price quantum. Even at NV Residences, the smallest units were snapped up first. Sales at Residences at W Singapore may have also been affected by unfamiliarity with the W Hotel and the "condotel" concept. Nevertheless, the project's prime location and its undeniable lifestyle status means CDL can afford to wait sales out. Interest may pick up as W Hotel and the commercial area begin to take shape. The limited supply of condominium units in Sentosa Cove is icing on the cake. At the 2Q10 results, CDL mentioned it could retain at least 100 units for medium to long-term strategic investment or for en bloc sales "if the price is right".





tats y analyst and media haf been trying to hype up prime prime condo....

tat wing tai guy even more despo:rolleyes:

[devilplate]

can look at HK prices.. SG was getting close
whether over or under priced only u can make the call hehe :p

when i m looking to buy, i always find the prices OVERPRICED!!!

after i bot smthing, i find the prices UNDERPRICED....haha

i am sure many of u feels the same?:D

[richwang]

At the first place, your calculation is wrong, so as your mindset.

300k cash can't afford 1.5m, probably you've forgotten bout the stamp duty and so...

The down payment increased from 20 to 30 does not means the price will drop by 33%. Don't be naive!

With the current strong growth, it would be shame if the price drop by single %. I presume property price will increase steadily in next few years.

OK. I've re-calculated with stamp duty included:
With $300K Cash, in the old rule, he could buy S$1.33M property (266K down payment, S$34.5K stamp duty).
In the new rule, he could only afford S$920K property (S$276K down payment, S$22.2K stamp duty). So the property will need to go down
(S$920K - S$1.33M) / S$1.33M = -31%
Lower than the initial -33%. But it doesn't change the idea.
I am still looking for serious prcing models.

Thanks,
Richard

[proud owner]

Quantum still counts.



The different reception for the two projects supports our view that while the property market has heated up on a psf basis, buyers are still shying away from a high absolute price quantum. Even at NV Residences, the smallest units were snapped up first. Sales at Residences at W Singapore may have also been affected by unfamiliarity with the W Hotel and the "condotel" concept. Nevertheless, the project's prime location and its undeniable lifestyle status means CDL can afford to wait sales out. Interest may pick up as W Hotel and the commercial area begin to take shape. The limited supply of condominium units in Sentosa Cove is icing on the cake. At the 2Q10 results, CDL mentioned it could retain at least 100 units for medium to long-term strategic investment or for en bloc sales "if the price is right".




[/quote]



what this means is that ... people will ONLY buy condos below 1 mio quantum ...

be it 20% or 30% up front .. anything condo below 1 mio ..any buyer only need 300k ... which is fairly easy to fork out ..

those who could previously afford $2mio unit, now can only look at those $1.5 mio ..
$1.5 mio previously ... now $1mio ...

3 mio previously .. now 2 mio

so shifting the local buyers profile down a notch ..

those super high end are usually bought by foreigners .. we ignore those

the $2-3 mio type will have problem selling ... esp resale mkt ..

SO .. if for whatever reasons these owners need to sell .. they will have to lower their price ...

perhaps RICHWANG's calculation is not wrong ..

perhaps thats why some EXPERTS said prices could fall 50 pct ...remember ?

imagine you bought Ardmore II at 2500 psf .. dropped to 1600 psf ...you didnt cut ..held till today TOP ... mkt is back up to 2500 psf ..
you try to sell at 2850 psf ..or higher ..

dont forget .. most other target buyers are already owners there themselves ... you sell to who ? only foreigners
how long can you hold to wait for these buyers ?

meanwhile ... try rent out ..
can rental cover your mortgage ? assuming 2500 psf for a 2000 sqft unit ... 80 pct financing

i am pretty sure there are owners who will start to sell lower

depending on how many speculators who are still holding to multiple high end units ... once TOP and cannot take profit .. some weaker ones will lower price ..
and when that happens ..it will filter to the mid tier ..

meanwhile 80 pct of singaporeans who owns HDB..also have 1 or 2 MM units (bought before 30 aug) ...

the so called upgrader support group is gone ..

the whole mkt will shift lower

i am saying it will collapse .. but it will shift lower ... possibly 20 pct ...

[proud owner]

GDP and ppty prices may only correlates by taking a longer span of time la...

y 2009 ppty prices crash 30-40% within 6mths while GDP minus by a few % points?

similarly .. with GDP 10 % and prices up maybe 10 % every 3 mths

thats why some economists / analysts think its not sustainable ..

thats why our govt is also concerned

[bargain hunter]

he tried his best liao, even launched Belle Vue during F1 weekend in the hope of pple who come to f1 will buy from him.




tats y analyst and media haf been trying to hype up prime prime condo....

tat wing tai guy even more despo:rolleyes:

[proud owner]

CORRECTION


i am NOT saying it will collapse .. but it will shift lower ... possibly 20 pct ...[/quote]

[devilplate]

he tried his best liao, even launched Belle Vue during F1 weekend in the hope of pple who come to f1 will buy from him.

ya lor...big big advertisement...haha

hows the wkend sales for belle vue?

[stalingrad]

CORRECTION


i am NOT saying it will collapse .. but it will shift lower ... possibly 20 pct ...[/quote]

I don't think so. With so many practicisng propertism, there will be a swarm of buyers when there is just an 5% correction.

Just like inflation, the idea that properties are tickets to wealth have been part singapore psyche and very hard to get rid off.

I expect that prices will be at these levels for many years to come, if not going higher.

I do believe, however, that high end properties will continue to lose shine to mass condos. for two reasons. First, economic growth going forward will be weak, so buyers are mostly HDB upgraders. Second, singapore government is putting more resources into developing outlying areas. the downtown core has already maxed out.

[devilplate]

CORRECTION


i am NOT saying it will collapse .. but it will shift lower ... possibly 20 pct ...[/quote]

relax...

dun have to justify too hard la...

just buy when u see prices corrects lor...nvr corrects, life still goes on rite? u oredi have many roofs.....:spliff:

[proud owner]

relax...

dun have to justify too hard la...

just buy when u see prices corrects lor...nvr corrects, life still goes on rite? u oredi have many roofs.....:spliff:[/quote]

hahha

doesnt hurt to accumulate mah

now i am in a cabin lodge ... 3 feet from the lake .. temp 15 deg .. super cold

a different kind of roof ... knn drove 6 over hrs just to get here ..

no TV ..only have internet

[JuzMe]

Prices will certainly drop but personally don't see prices dropping 30-40%.

Putting aside foreign high end investers/putters, it is difficult to see average Singaporean/PR keep up the trend buying properties while having to put in extra 10% cash.

Current low interest is helping sellers to hold on to their properties but how long can interest rate remain so low. That's why prices have not gone south (yet).

Don't know about the rest of you but as an average person, it is difficult for me to put another 10% extra to get a 2nd property. Personal view is to sit on sideline and see. Upside for buying now is not that big but potential downside could be much greater :ashamed1: No point jumping in right now. Also I am sure government will implement more policies to cool the market if prices keep on going up. Next one to be introduced might be capital tax which will put a massive brake on the market. Just my 2 cents personal view.

[richwang]

actually i did think of this as well ..

in your example .. its the group of buyers who has 300k


in my own thoughts ..theres the group with 600k who could afford 3 mio property ... but now can only afford 2-2.2 mio property

mind you these people are not poor ... to have $500-700 cash ...

so should they wait and safe more ?

or should seller be 'realistic' ?

Spore GDP how many % ? 10 % ?

property price from jan 2010 to sep 2010 went up how many % ?

some cases ..prices are up almost 10 % every quarter ...

sustainable ?

Since I've got the Excel formula now, I have just calculated for you for those with S$600K cash.
They could afford S$2.63M property (S$526K down payment and S$73.5K stamp duty).
Now they can only afford S$1.83M property (S$549K down payment and S$49.5K stamp duty). So the change is

(1.83 - 2.63) / 2.63 = -30%

Thanks,
Richard

[devilplate]

Prices will certainly drop but personally don't see prices dropping 30-40%.

Putting aside foreign high end investers/putters, it is difficult to see average Singaporean/PR keep up the trend buying properties while having to put in extra 10% cash.

Current low interest is helping sellers to hold on to their properties but how long can interest rate remain so low. That's why prices have not gone south (yet).

As an average person, it is difficult for me to put another 10% extra to get a 2nd property. Personal view is to sit on sideline and see. Upside for buying now is not that big but potential downside could be much greater :ashamed1: No point jumping in right now. Also I am sure government will implement more policies to cool the market if prices keep on going up. Next one to be introduced might be capital tax which will put a massive brake on the market. Just my 2 cents personal view.

tats wat the govt want....just got 20%....dun play....:D

SSD is as gd as capital tax actually....but many din realise it...:p

[proud owner]

Since I've got the Excel formula now, I have just calculated for you for those with S$600K cash.
They could afford S$2.63M property (S$526K down payment and S$73.5K stamp duty).
Now they can only afford S$1.83M property (S$549K down payment and S$49.5K stamp duty). So the change is

(1.83 - 2.63) / 2.63 = -30%

Thanks,
Richard

while driving from manhattan to lake placid this morning ... i was thinking about it .. and got a mental number 30 pct ..

and i am pleasantly surprised that someone also thought about it when i log in ....

i also thot about :

will mkt force buyers to hold back for now and save for the 10% ?
will mkt force buyers to totally back out ?
will mkt force buyers to scale down the size ( also quantum) ?
will mkt force sellers to be more realistic ?

will JLRX appear in my dream tonight ?:sleep:
will Reporter appear again on every Tue and Friday ?:doh:

[devilplate]

i busy looking at counters now....haha....goto shift my stop loss upwards..yeah:D

wah, some penny stocks chiong 20%!

[stalingrad]

i busy looking at counters now....haha....goto shift my stop loss upwards..yeah:D

wah, some penny stocks chiong 20%!

almost bought Genting SP at 80 cents. now it is at 2 dollars. :banghead:

Should I jump in and not get burned. P/E is 29.4. a big rich for me. growth depends on chinese tourists.

what do you think?

[bargain hunter]

hehehe, huat ar! some even up 50% today lor.


i busy looking at counters now....haha....goto shift my stop loss upwards..yeah:D

wah, some penny stocks chiong 20%!

[teddybear]

View it another way: It is so much better since the estate will be quiet and with few people competing/crowding the swimming pool, gym, BBQ pits, tennis courts, choice car park lots etc. (vs those mass market condo estates with several hundreds units and yet fully occupied! Imagine having to queue up to use the gym equipment, swimming in the over-crowded swimming pool and having to knock people here and there, fighting for the limited park lots, BBQ pits, tennis courts etc?). Heard a friend said they even have to stay up till 12 mid-night sharp just to book the BBQ pits because any seconds of delay means the BBQ pits will be fully booked for next 4 weekends and they can only book 1 month in advance! Oh gosh! :doh:



A tale of 2 cities? Looks like developers will hold on to their unsold inventory of "high-end" developments (i.e. TOP with only a handful of units sold), and wait for a white knight to enbloc? I think it would be quite sad to move into a condo with only 9% sold....



=====


OCBC 23 Sep 2010


NV launches successfully.

We visited two City Development (CDL) residential projects this past weekend that were poles apart in terms of both positioning and interest. We were the only visitors at Residences at W Singapore early Sunday afternoon. In contrast, NV Residences' show-flat was packed to the rafters that day, launching successfully this month despite the Aug 30 property measures. The 642-unit project is located next to CDL's Livia development in Pasir Ris. When we visited, substantially all of the two-bedroom units were already sold out. We understand average prices are in the S$830-850 per square foot range. According to media reports, 300 units have been sold in nearly two weeks (~47% overall project take-up).




Low take-up for W even as completion nears.

Sentosa Cove's Residences at W Singapore is billed as a 'lifestyle concept', riding on the adjoining W Hotel, which will be ready in ~1.5 years. The project is being marketed as a second home and maid quarters are not given as residents are expected to utilize the W's housekeeping services. The showflat we visited is apparently two years old and will soon be moved to an actual unit, and is likely to be "ready for move-in by Christmas" according to an agent. Prices start at S$2800psf. Interest has been low with 21 units sold as of end-Aug (~9% project take-up) - we understand the twobedroom units were the first to go.




Quantum still counts.

The different reception for the two projects supports our view that while the property market has heated up on a psf basis, buyers are still shying away from a high absolute price quantum. Even at NV Residences, the smallest units were snapped up first. Sales at Residences at W Singapore may have also been affected by unfamiliarity with the W Hotel and the "condotel" concept. Nevertheless, the project's prime location and its undeniable lifestyle status means CDL can afford to wait sales out. Interest may pick up as W Hotel and the commercial area begin to take shape. The limited supply of condominium units in Sentosa Cove is icing on the cake. At the 2Q10 results, CDL mentioned it could retain at least 100 units for medium to long-term strategic investment or for en bloc sales "if the price is right".

[bargain hunter]

no idea leh. newspapers have gone all quiet, no reports on weekend sales on monday any more. maybe tomorrow then report? :confused:


ya lor...big big advertisement...haha

hows the wkend sales for belle vue?

[patricia]

almost bought Genting SP at 80 cents. now it is at 2 dollars. :banghead:

Should I jump in and not get burned. P/E is 29.4. a big rich for me. growth depends on chinese tourists.

what do you think?
Genting stock is very richly priced. Remember few months ago, Genting themself sold their shares at about ~75cts. Well, maybe that was history. By the way, most gambling stock is under the junk investment category.

[devilplate]

almost bought Genting SP at 80 cents. now it is at 2 dollars. :banghead:

Should I jump in and not get burned. P/E is 29.4. a big rich for me. growth depends on chinese tourists.

what do you think?

actually, i also missed genting ride:o

[stalingrad]

My hand was already on the mouse, ready to click "execute" for 40,000 shares of genting sp at 80 cents. but chickened out. :banghead:

[teddybear]

Looks like this forum on properties is very bearish now since so many people are so bearish (which is a good sign (to me)). :cheers1:


Since I've got the Excel formula now, I have just calculated for you for those with S$600K cash.
They could afford S$2.63M property (S$526K down payment and S$73.5K stamp duty).
Now they can only afford S$1.83M property (S$549K down payment and S$49.5K stamp duty). So the change is

(1.83 - 2.63) / 2.63 = -30%

Thanks,
Richard

[stalingrad]

Looks like this forum on properties is very bearish now since so many people are so bearish (which is a good sign (to me)). :cheers1:

I don't believe there will be a big drop. With a 30% drop, the banks will be in danger, and all the measured PAP just announced will be reversed.

I forecast 0 to 5% drop.

[teddybear]

Wah! Sadly my mid-cap stock took 1.5 years to cheong >500% (too longgggggg)! :o


hehehe, huat ar! some even up 50% today lor.

[bargain hunter]

amazing, stalin and teddy finally agreed on something. at the least, they are more bullish than the rest of us. :D

[teddybear]

Seems like you made a mistake? I didn't say I agree that the price will drop 0-5%? :o


amazing, stalin and teddy finally agreed on something. at the least, they are more bullish than the rest of us. :D

[proud owner]

I don't believe there will be a big drop. With a 30% drop, the banks will be in danger, and all the measured PAP just announced will be reversed.

I forecast 0 to 5% drop.


before 30 aug

i was eyeing a 4200 sqft landed semi D

seller was very very firm ..1000 psf ... refused to budge ...

after 30 aug measures .. now almost coming october .. still no taker ..

seller L L lower a bit to 930 psf ...
thats more than 5 pct already right ?

should i buy at 930 psf now ?

i wil wait

[stalingrad]

amazing, stalin and teddy finally agreed on something. at the least, they are more bullish than the rest of us. :D
richwang's analysis is faulty. the cash downpayment requirement is nothing for fund managers. they have tons of cash to invest. if there is just a 5% drop, the fund managers from kuwait and Dubai will swarm in and snap up all the properties for sale.

besides, with a 20% drop, rental yield in Singapore will be too attractive for funds to pass up.

[stalingrad]

amazing, stalin and teddy finally agreed on something. at the least, they are more bullish than the rest of us. :D

we don't agree. i said that luxury condos will continue to lose shine to mass condos. I don't believe teddy will ever agree with that statement. :p

[proud owner]

richwang's analysis is faulty. the cash downpayment requirement is nothing for fund managers. they have tons of cash to invest. if there is just a 5% drop, the fund managers from kuwait and Dubai will swarm in and snap up all the properties for sale.

besides, with a 20% drop, rental yield in Singapore will be too attractive for funds to pass up.


maybe you are in funds related work .. i am not

i thot once they hit their target level ...they will take profit and exit and wait for a correction ..usually more than 20 pct ..before they would enter the mkt again ?

can u tell me why GS funds sold Chevron at a loss ?

funds are now going BIG time into Brazil ..for the issue of Petrobras ... estimated some 10-12 bio usd has gone into BRL ..waiting for the issue ..

where got time to look at spore property now ...

i may be wrong .. but if anyone here has any info .. i appreciate if you can share ..here or PM me

[patricia]

richwang's analysis is faulty. the cash downpayment requirement is nothing for fund managers. they have tons of cash to invest. if there is just a 5% drop, the fund managers from kuwait and Dubai will swarm in and snap up all the properties for sale.

besides, with a 20% drop, rental yield in Singapore will be too attractive for funds to pass up.
With 20% drop in price, the rental will increase by 25% (1/0.8*100). The rental would be 3.75% ( assuming current rental yield of 3%). 3.75% rental yield is nothing to shout about. It can hardly attract fund manager to move in.

[bargain hunter]

u r terrible lah, read carefully, "AT THE LEAST, they are more bullish than the rest of us." :doh:



Seems like you made a mistake? I didn't say I agree that the price will drop 0-5%? :o

[stalingrad]

not going to tell you what I do.

but take rivergate for example. It is asking for $5.50 psf for rental. asking price averages about 2k, which means a rental yield of 3.3% per year.

if price corrects 30%, rental yield will soar to 4.7%, which would be very tempting for funds.

[bargain hunter]

ok, u guys win. die die must disagree. :doh:




we don't agree. i said that luxury condos will continue to lose shine to mass condos. I don't believe teddy will ever agree with that statement. :p

[stalingrad]

With 20% drop in price, the rental will increase by 25% (1/0.8*100). The rental would be 3.75% ( assuming current rental yield of 3%). 3.75% rental yield is nothing to shout about. It can hardly attract fund manager to move in.

but funds don't buy only for rental yield. they also fish for capital appreciation. so, don't count them out.

[cashrich]

I am amazed with some many responses.

What the goverment did was to raise to payment part by 10%, assuming all else equal, there should be 10% less people buying. But it is not the case, maybe 3 to 5% less people buying.

That will take away the steam in the property prices, at least for a short while.

What most don't understand is the sentiments, if all perceive that it will drop, it will drop even without those measures. If the sentiments gets worst, it will fall harder. We are now at the peak, what new measures or developments will drive up the prices?

The final answer on the percentage is anybody's guess. As long as developers bid lower, people will start to expect lower prices. Developer though rich, they cannot hold forever. There's a limit to the fall also. Support Prices of HDB, DBSS and EC. When new ones are cheaper.. most will be screwed, FH or not.

[proud owner]

not going to tell you what I do.

but take rivergate for example. It is asking for $5.50 psf for rental. asking price averages about 2k, which means a rental yield of 3.3% per year.

if price corrects 30%, rental yield will soar to 4.7%, which would be very tempting for funds.


Do funds purchase residential properties for rental yield ??

[stalingrad]

I am amazed with some many responses.

What the goverment did was to raise to payment part by 10%, assuming all else equal, there should be 10% less people buying. But it is not the case, maybe 3 to 5% less people buying.

That will take away the steam in the property prices, at least for a short while.

What most don't understand is the sentiments, if all perceive that it will drop, it will drop even without those measures. If the sentiments gets worst, it will fall harder. We are now at the peak, what new measures or developments will drive up the prices?

The final answer on the percentage is anybody's guess. As long as developers bid lower, people will start to expect lower prices. Developer though rich, they cannot hold forever. There's a limit to the fall also. Support Prices of HDB, DBSS and EC. When new ones are cheaper.. most will be screwed, FH or not.
but sentiment is still very bullish. perversely, many are thinking buying now before next batch of measures is announced.

I am not buying nor selling, so I have no hidden agenda. but I understand singapore very well. singaporeans die die must have properties. within this social context, 30% drop is impossible, not even 20%. 10% is possible, but highly unlikely.

[teddybear]

I am hoping that the price will drop 20% for me to buy and then I foresee it going up another 50%... :cheers1:

[proud owner]

but sentiment is still very bullish. perversely, many are thinking buying now before next batch of measures is announced.

I am not buying nor selling, so I have no hidden agenda. but I understand singapore very will. singaporeans die die must have properties. within this social context, 30% drop is impossible, not even 20%. 10% is possible, but highly unlikely.


i believe 50 pct have more than 1 props ...

another 30 pct easily have more than 2

[proud owner]

I am hoping that the price will drop 20% for me to buy and then I foresee it going up another 50%... :cheers1:

so easily satisfied ?

20 pct drop only take you back to jan 2010

dont forget every 3 mth the price up 10 pct

[gfoo]

so easily satisfied ?

20 pct drop only take you back to jan 2010

dont forget every 3 mth the price up 10 pct

50% increase, i will sell all and live rest of my life in hotel suites in Nice and Monaco.

50% drop, I'll buy one or two more units to store my exhaust mods.

20%, won't even get out of bed for that. lol

In the meantime, i'm buying more exhausts.

[Squall8888]

For The Vision, the bid is 300 psf. Breakeven at 550 to 600 psf. They sell at 1200 psf. No guarantee developer will sell cheap. They always try to earn the most and squeeze you dry.





I am amazed with some many responses.

What the goverment did was to raise to payment part by 10%, assuming all else equal, there should be 10% less people buying. But it is not the case, maybe 3 to 5% less people buying.

That will take away the steam in the property prices, at least for a short while.

What most don't understand is the sentiments, if all perceive that it will drop, it will drop even without those measures. If the sentiments gets worst, it will fall harder. We are now at the peak, what new measures or developments will drive up the prices?

The final answer on the percentage is anybody's guess. As long as developers bid lower, people will start to expect lower prices. Developer though rich, they cannot hold forever. There's a limit to the fall also. Support Prices of HDB, DBSS and EC. When new ones are cheaper.. most will be screwed, FH or not.

[richwang]

not going to tell you what I do.

but take rivergate for example. It is asking for $5.50 psf for rental. asking price averages about 2k, which means a rental yield of 3.3% per year.

if price corrects 30%, rental yield will soar to 4.7%, which would be very tempting for funds.

Mapletree Inductrial Fund will be selling at 8% yeild. If I were a fund manager, I would go for that rather than investing in residential property.

By the way, why is Mapletree selling at such a "high" yield? What is their slightly "longer" term view on the property market?

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

almost bought Genting SP at 80 cents. now it is at 2 dollars. :banghead:

Should I jump in and not get burned. P/E is 29.4. a big rich for me. growth depends on chinese tourists.

what do you think?

The past 12 month earning is -0.018 per share. So they are lossing money (or investing). The forecasted P/E varies so much:

Numura: 0.017 (PE: 120)
CIMB: 0.066 (PE: 30)
OCBC: 0.097 (PE: 21)

If you like gambling, feel free to jump in. Otherwise, save the money to buy property (even you don't want to wait for the 0-5%, 10%-20% or 30% drop).

Thanks,
Richard

[azeoprop]

The main thing is economy is still very positive with sti over 3k, there are many people around with alot of cash at hand waiting to buy properties at their precived bargain price. If price drop 5-10% all the kiasu people who missed the boat in 2009 will chiong like no tomorrow to buy liaoz. Demand will come back up and price will start to rise again.

Remember in 2009? People chiong to buy caspian, alexis, 8@Woodleigh like no tomorrow because many of them missed the boat in 2006. :beats-me-man:

[richwang]

while driving from manhattan to lake placid this morning ... i was thinking about it .. and got a mental number 30 pct ..

and i am pleasantly surprised that someone also thought about it when i log in ....

i also thot about :

will mkt force buyers to hold back for now and save for the 10% ?
will mkt force buyers to totally back out ?
will mkt force buyers to scale down the size ( also quantum) ?
will mkt force sellers to be more realistic ?

will JLRX appear in my dream tonight ?:sleep:
will Reporter appear again on every Tue and Friday ?:doh:

We have figured out the purchasing power is roughly 30% gone. Now we need to figure out how much they are willing to scale down.
If they were eyeing at 1500 sqft, now they can only afford 1050 sqft;
If they were eyeing at 1000 sqft, now they can only afford 700 sqft;
If they were eyeing at 700 sqft, now they can only afford 490 sqft;
If they were eyeing at 500 sqft, now they can only afford 350 sqft;
If they were eyeing at 350 sqft, now they can only afford 245 sqft;

I am not sure which catogry u fall into. But more or less, it it totally unacceptable. So sellers have to drop the price.

Not sure whether I can come up with a model:

30% = x + y + z
x - seller to drop price;
y - buyer to shirnk size;
z - buyer to save more.

As a start, I will just put 10% each. So
Price will drop 10%;
Size will shrink 10%;
Buyer will need to save more (to cover the 10% purchase power loss, they need to save 3.3% of the total purchase price - much more realistic now).

So my bet will be Price to drop by 10% - boring conculsion. No wonder we don't see true fire sell.

Thanks,
Richard

[devilplate]

before 30 aug

i was eyeing a 4200 sqft landed semi D

seller was very very firm ..1000 psf ... refused to budge ...

after 30 aug measures .. now almost coming october .. still no taker ..

seller L L lower a bit to 930 psf ...
thats more than 5 pct already right ?

should i buy at 930 psf now ?

i wil wait

mind sharing the address?

i received some sms claiming firesale(reduced price) but still above past average transacted price:doh:

[devilplate]

The past 12 month earning is -0.018 per share. So they are lossing money (or investing). The forecasted P/E varies so much:

Numura: 0.017 (PE: 120)
CIMB: 0.066 (PE: 30)
OCBC: 0.097 (PE: 21)

If you like gambling, feel free to jump in. Otherwise, save the money to buy property (even you don't want to wait for the 0-5%, 10%-20% or 30% drop).

Thanks,
Richard

nomura is the biggest joke:p

[tiks]

I think the impact of the measures will mainly hit HDB upgraders and mass market condos (which have gone past previous historical highs already), but not so much mid and high-end developments. Many property investors are probably cash rich and upping the downpayment to 30% isn't going to stop them. If you recall at the height of the recent downturn in Q1 and Q2 2009, people were still packing it in at launches and cheques were flying out of their cheque-books. This will be further fuelled by the super low mortgage interest rates.
The number of units sold will probably slowdown with developers and investors taking a wait & see policy. Everyone is waiting to see who will flinch first!

[devilplate]

I think the impact of the measures will mainly hit HDB upgraders and mass market condos (which have gone past previous historical highs already), but not so much mid and high-end developments. Many property investors are probably cash rich and upping the downpayment to 30% isn't going to stop them. If you recall at the height of the recent downturn in Q1 and Q2 2009, people were still packing it in at launches and cheques were flying out of their cheque-books. This will be further fuelled by the super low mortgage interest rates.
The number of units sold will probably slowdown with developers and investors taking a wait & see policy. Everyone is waiting to see who will flinch first!

u from wing tai?:p

[richwang]

For The Vision, the bid is 300 psf. Breakeven at 550 to 600 psf. They sell at 1200 psf. No guarantee developer will sell cheap. They always try to earn the most and squeeze you dry.

Thanks for the info. Here is the latest URA data.

THE VISION WEST COAST CRESCENT
Terrace House
4,941 sqft Strata
$ 577 psf
Apr-10


So they advertise those high price units, and slient about those breakeven price units.

Thanks,
Richard

[greenhorn]

It is not a zero sum game. Too many variables and influencing factors. If only Life is as simple as a maths equation or model.

Remember Q1 of 2009? Many doom sayers and negtive predictions from analysts to gurus at that time. Look what happened in the many months after that...and the rest is history.

Situation now different... at new peaks. Short term ups and downs are part and parcel of a healthy pty mkt, much like stocks & shares. Short term spikes (both up & down) or longer term growth & stability ? Different strokes for different folks.

[devilplate]

Thanks for the info. Here is the latest URA data.

THE VISION WEST COAST CRESCENT
Terrace House
4,941 sqft Strata
$ 577 psf
Apr-10


So they advertise those high price units, and slient about those breakeven price units.

Thanks,
Richard

do u mean this is cheap?

no wonder landed prices up so much...agts using built up psf to market liao:scared-3:

all using built up psf ....like dat some landed build up to 4 storey max very cheap...5xxpsf freehold....cheaper den some HDBs!

[richwang]

The past 12 month earning is -0.018 per share. So they are lossing money (or investing). The forecasted P/E varies so much:

Numura: 0.017 (PE: 120)
CIMB: 0.066 (PE: 30)
OCBC: 0.097 (PE: 21)

If you like gambling, feel free to jump in. Otherwise, save the money to buy property (even you don't want to wait for the 0-5%, 10%-20% or 30% drop).

Thanks,
Richard

Numura has a target price of S$0.90. By the way, most of the traders there were from Lehman Brothers. So let's see whether they still have enough money to short the market. (I am in short position).
Dutche Bank has just upgraded Genting target price to S$2.60. That partly explained it is still climbing today.

Thanks,
Richard

[stalingrad]

It is not a zero sum game. Too many variables and influencing factors. If only Life is as simple as a maths equation or model.

Remember Q1 of 2009? Many doom sayers and negtive predictions from analysts to gurus at that time. Look what happened in the many months after that...and the rest is history.

Situation now different... at new peaks. Short term ups and downs are part and parcel of a healthy pty mkt, much like stocks & shares. Short term spikes (both up & down) or longer term growth & stability ? Different strokes for different folks.
yes, those gurus are as clueless as we are. citibank in 2008 predicted that sti would hit 1200. haha, what a joke. I guess those so called gurus are now agents selling condos too to make a living.

[devilplate]

Numura has a target price of S$0.90. By the way, most of the traders there were from Lehman Brothers. So let's see whether they still have enough money to short the market. (I am in short position).
Dutche Bank has just upgraded Genting target price to S$2.60. That partly explained it is still climbing today.

Thanks,
Richard

they r the biggest jokers

my fren read their report and tell me sure make $$ by shorting at 1.8...he say can drop to $1 or less!! luckily he nvr max leverage.....

well, lets see how it goes....interesting

[devilplate]

yes, those gurus are as clueless as we are. citibank in 2008 predicted that sti would hit 1200. haha, what a joke. I guess those so called gurus are now agents selling condos too to make a living.

1200 not too far.....STI hit 14xx leh....i started to buy when it hit 16xxpts...i did shivered when it drop below 1500pts for a short while:o

[bargain hunter]

i still think insufficient differentiation is placed between high end condos below 2000psf which may require loans/rental to sustain and those above 3000psf which are those mentioned in the article and which are truly unaffected by the measures. :)


u from wing tai?:p

[stalingrad]

they r the biggest jokers

my fren read their report and tell me sure make $$ by shorting at 1.8...he say can drop to $1 or less!! luckily he nvr max leverage.....

well, lets see how it goes....interesting

but i guess rws is doing better than MBS because a lot of chinese tourists prefer RWS to MBS, which is considered more high end and more intimidating to some of the chinese. some of the chinese tourists may think to gamble at MBS, one would have to speak english. hah, that is furthese from the truth. You can speak zero english, and still can manage to lose as much money as you want at either venue.

[devilplate]

i still think insufficient differentiation is placed between high end condos below 2000psf which may require loans/rental to sustain and those above 3000psf which are those mentioned in the article and which are truly unaffected by the measures. :)

those 3000psf oredi not moving in the first place...of coz not affected lah:p

[stalingrad]

1200 not too far.....STI hit 14xx leh....i started to buy when it hit 16xxpts...i did shivered when it drop below 1500pts for a short while:o
I sold my entire portfolio when STI fell below 1,800 and never bought any back:banghead:

Never listen to any guru.

[Geylang OKT]

I sold my entire portfolio when STI fell below 1,800 and never bought any back:banghead:

Never listen to any guru.

Donch worry, while property and property counters may be falling... construction counters will be doing very well going forward. Govt is pushing out infrastructure projects, Sg and Msian cooperation over the railway, Govt has promised to build more HDB flats equivalent to the size of Toa Payoh town, private property developers are rushing to sell their developments, all these activities will result in boom time charlie for the listed construction counters. :D :D :D

You can also check out this week's issue of The Edge for a more detailed write-up and analysis. :D

[tiks]

u from wing tai?:p

No lah, just interested bystander amazed how cash rich people are in Singapore and how the rich get richer through property investments ...

[Douk]

I think the impact of the measures will mainly hit HDB upgraders and mass market condos (which have gone past previous historical highs already), but not so much mid and high-end developments. Many property investors are probably cash rich and upping the downpayment to 30% isn't going to stop them. If you recall at the height of the recent downturn in Q1 and Q2 2009, people were still packing it in at launches and cheques were flying out of their cheque-books. This will be further fuelled by the super low mortgage interest rates.
The number of units sold will probably slowdown with developers and investors taking a wait & see policy. Everyone is waiting to see who will flinch first!

The measures does not impact the high end, the economy uncertainties is. Mid and high end has not been moving, this should remain the same unless uncertainties is cleared.:2cents:

[McKinnon]

my frens are downshifting from holland and newton investments to look at mass market play for rental. from 1.5mio 20% to 1mio 30%.

dunno abt mickey mouse units at high end places, but most investor frens i know are feeling the pinch about the extra 10%.

[proud owner]

I think the impact of the measures will mainly hit HDB upgraders and mass market condos (which have gone past previous historical highs already), but not so much mid and high-end developments. Many property investors are probably cash rich and upping the downpayment to 30% isn't going to stop them. If you recall at the height of the recent downturn in Q1 and Q2 2009, people were still packing it in at launches and cheques were flying out of their cheque-books. This will be further fuelled by the super low mortgage interest rates.
The number of units sold will probably slowdown with developers and investors taking a wait & see policy. Everyone is waiting to see who will flinch first!


since it targets the upgraders n mass mkt..

think about it this way ..

the upgraders are now taken away ..
mass mkt will have less buyers .. so mass mkt owners cannot upgrade to bigger or better location ..

with the base support 'removed' .. can all level still move up ?

[Geylang OKT]

since it targets the upgraders n mass mkt..

think about it this way ..

the upgraders are now taken away ..
mass mkt will have less buyers .. so mass mkt owners cannot upgrade to bigger or better location ..

with the base support 'removed' .. can all level still move up ?

What you say makes perfect sense :D :D :D

[Komo]

I don't think the upgraders are priced out and definitely not out of the picture. Don't under estimate the sandwiched class. They have no rush into buying. I suspect some may not even be buying for themselves but for or with their kids to own a private property.

[teddybear]

How to upgrade so easily from $1000 psf range requiring more than 70% loan to >$2000 psf range hah? The thinking that just because downpayment increased by 10% means some of these people cannot afford to upgrade is too simplistic. As such, it is obvious that the new regulations target the mass market and have no effect what-so-ever on prime & luxury market (excluding the MM type of properties :p). Prime market depends on global economic recovery which is currently on the mend and improving (cannot get worse anymore since Lehman collapse until there is WW-III). The final conclusion is up to individuals to draw for themselves.


since it targets the upgraders n mass mkt..

think about it this way ..

the upgraders are now taken away ..
mass mkt will have less buyers .. so mass mkt owners cannot upgrade to bigger or better location ..

with the base support 'removed' .. can all level still move up ?

[rattydrama]

since it targets the upgraders n mass mkt..

think about it this way ..

the upgraders are now taken away ..
mass mkt will have less buyers .. so mass mkt owners cannot upgrade to bigger or better location ..

with the base support 'removed' .. can all level still move up ?

I tried to find one cheapest mass market condo in D25 but the price is still holding strong and for good facing units, about 5% increase from the last transacted price.

I made an offer for a decent unit (still higher than last transacted price hor!!!) but was counter offer by an Indian buyer. :banghead:

So, less buyers doesnt mean no buyer so it may not necessary remove this group of people. Its only now they go for less expensive condos due to the 30% downpayment. But But not all are paying 30% downpayment, there are still people who are paying 20%.

Also the overall price did not increase only that one need to pay more for downpayment so when upgrader save enough money, they will be back.

So, wait a little longer?:confused:

[devilplate]

I tried to find one cheapest mass market condo in D25 but the price is still holding strong and for good facing units, about 5% increase from the last transacted price.

I made an offer for a decent unit (still higher than last transacted price hor!!!) but was counter offer by an Indian buyer. :banghead:

So, less buyers doesnt mean no buyer so it may not necessary remove this group of people. Its only now they go for less expensive condos due to the 30% downpayment. But But not all are paying 30% downpayment, there are still people who are paying 20%.

Also the overall price did not increase only that one need to pay more for downpayment so when upgrader save enough money, they will be back.

So, wait a little longer?:confused:

u go until D25 ar? mostly 99LH rite?

[proud owner]

I tried to find one cheapest mass market condo in D25 but the price is still holding strong and for good facing units, about 5% increase from the last transacted price.

I made an offer for a decent unit (still higher than last transacted price hor!!!) but was counter offer by an Indian buyer. :banghead:

So, less buyers doesnt mean no buyer so it may not necessary remove this group of people. Its only now they go for less expensive condos due to the 30% downpayment. But But not all are paying 30% downpayment, there are still people who are paying 20%.

Also the overall price did not increase only that one need to pay more for downpayment so when upgrader save enough money, they will be back.

So, wait a little longer?:confused:



well you and i seem to have different reaction leh

those that i am interested are actually lowering their psf .. strange

eg...landed semi D from 3600-4200 sqft land

condo in D9 .. lowred their psf from 2150 psf to 2000 psf , AND negotiable ..

dont ask me where or which .. my personal agent friend is keeping track for me , how the price is moving (lower) over the past weeks ..

anyway .. i am not buying any yet ..
to me the effect is yet to be felt ...

[devilplate]

so it affect high end big units rather den mass market?

[rattydrama]

u go until D25 ar? mostly 99LH rite?

Yes, potentially for own stay, not near MRT but big and spaces inside out. can park 3 cars. good for kids to run around. Yes all LH thats why very cheap. Anyway D25 dont have FH....... nearest is the run down seletaris with owners hanging their clothes outside their units, very unslightly.

[proud owner]

so it affect high end big units rather den mass market?

if the already dead and quiet high end starts to lower ...
what do you think will happen to the mid level ?

perhaps you shud also start to keep track of the high end prices .. see how they perform in the next few mths ..

of course once in a while we get foreigners who will pay up .. just like Aalto..ONE unit traded so high ..the rest still not selling .. or sold much lower ..

aiya i shant say anymore ..

i just sit and watch ... till it comes to my level ..

[proud owner]

Yes, potentially for own stay, not near MRT but big and spaces inside out. can park 3 cars. good for kids to run around. Yes all LH thats why very cheap. Anyway D25 dont have FH....... nearest is the run down seletaris with owners hanging their clothes outside their units, very unslightly.


if you want to buy there ..there are alot of FH landed .. and cheap

[rattydrama]

well you and i seem to have different reaction leh

those that i am interested are actually lowering their psf .. strange

eg...landed semi D from 3600-4200 sqft land

condo in D9 .. lowred their psf from 2150 psf to 2000 psf , AND negotiable ..

dont ask me where or which .. my personal agent friend is keeping track for me , how the price is moving (lower) over the past weeks ..

anyway .. i am not buying any yet ..
to me the effect is yet to be felt ...

So this will mean that how much you fork out is still important.
mass market condo only $600psf
D9 $2150psf
So the psf has to go down.

During the last low time, 2009 mass market condos were transacted at $450psf. There are still alot of rooms for improvement.

[rattydrama]

if you want to buy there ..there are alot of FH landed .. and cheap

landed cannot fetch good rental here. I will invest else where. D25 for stay. hehe

[proud owner]

So this will mean that how much you fork out is still important.
mass market condo only $600psf
D9 $2150psf
So the psf has to go down.

During the last low time, 2009 mass market condos were transacted at $450psf. There are still alot of rooms for improvement.


pls read my reply to Devilplate

about my take on the effect of lower psf of the high end .. on the mid ..and possibly eventually on the lower tier

[bargain hunter]

we already discussed this right? high $ quantum units could be hit. proud owner thinks $2m to $3m and beyond types could struggle while i think $3m to $5m types could struggle. above $5m type is immune as u said, was not moving before already so remains the same.

at the mass market, pple who can't afford higher prices go for the lower priced units so prices could initially see support like the e.g. above. let's see how the market sorts itself out in the months ahead. too early to say anything.




so it affect high end big units rather den mass market?

[bargain hunter]

dun have. only D26 to D28 have lots of FH landed. D25 only one area near the Turf club is freehold for landed. (no other amenties nearby whatsoever). all other residential landed or non-landed seems to be 99 year leasehold leh.




if you want to buy there ..there are alot of FH landed .. and cheap

[rattydrama]

It makes sense to me too. But when you go to the ground, what happens is another thing. At least for now.
For low priced condo there are still demand from people of all walks.

I assume;
1. people who can afford more expensive condo but want to pay less for own stay and keep the cash for next market correction. :p
2. people who are upgrader will find it attractive
3. new immigrants who dont want to buy HDB due to restriction.
4. home owners who cannot upgrade as the next available condo is too expensive for them.
5. home owners who got use to condo style and dont want to downgrade to HDB.

So some how there is a price support here. 5% discount is less than 40K (assume 800K). People will just buy at 800K cos it is still affordable and there is no next cheaper price or even there is just about 40k difference.

But if we are referring to mid tier condo, price might not hold.

[stalingrad]

u go until D25 ar? mostly 99LH rite?

not mostly. all are. rosewood, casablanca and rosewood suites. I would like to know whether any is fh? does anyone know?

[rattydrama]

not mostly. all are. rosewood, casablanca and rosewood suites. I would like to know whether any is fh? does anyone know?

All are leasehold! NO freehold condo in Woodlands!

[stalingrad]

have you viewed rosewood. My son will transfer to American School near by. I am interested in buying a condo nearby.

heard some good things about rosewood, like everything woody is solid wood. Have not got a chance to view. You like rosewood? how about casablanca?

[McKinnon]

bingo! anything >2.5mio will be stretching the budget of a typical white collar working family. if i have 3mio to play, i will buy 2 properties at 1.5mio, rather than 1 at 3mio.

absolute quantum is all that matters. buyers will buy the max space their budget can afford, and will simply take smaller sized units if bigger ones are out of their range.



It makes sense to me too. But when you go to the ground, what happens is another thing. At least for now.
For low priced condo there are still demand from people of all walks.

I assume;
1. people who can afford more expensive condo but want to pay less for own stay and keep the cash for next market correction. :p
2. people who are upgrader will find it attractive
3. new immigrants who dont want to buy HDB due to restriction.
4. home owners who cannot upgrade as the next available condo is too expensive for them.
5. home owners who got use to condo style and dont want to downgrade to HDB.

So some how there is a price support here. 5% discount is less than 40K (assume 800K). People will just buy at 800K cos it is still affordable and there is no next cheaper price or even there is just about 40k difference.

But if we are referring to mid tier condo, price might not hold.

[cashrich]

since it targets the upgraders n mass mkt..

think about it this way ..

the upgraders are now taken away ..
mass mkt will have less buyers .. so mass mkt owners cannot upgrade to bigger or better location ..

with the base support 'removed' .. can all level still move up ?

Correct observation. Sorry if I sounded like talking down to you. I am used to it here.

1. Do you know why properties are at current prices? There are alot of factors at play if you want the exact answers but I will simply it for the sake of explaining it to common folks. The few key ones are

a) Increased Population

b) Increased Land Bid Prices

c) Increased Construction Cost and or Profit Margins

d) Increased Public Infrastructure (MRTs, Expressways, Shopping Centers, etc)

e) Increased Foreign Investments

I'll just touch on a) b) c) and d), which are internal factors, since e) are external factors.

a) Increased population, need room to stay, rental up and demand up for those who can afford it. Overall, HDB prices are supported. More demand, same supply or slower supply would be increased prices.

b) Increased Land bid prices - serves as reference point to property buyers. Will be willing to pay higher prices for land bids which cost more.

c) Increased Construction cost - serves as reference point to property buyers too. Will be willing to pay higher prices for projects which cost more. May not be rational but its logical, willing to pay more for projects that cost more to build. On profit margins, some are share holders and profits are channel back into projects.

d) Governments investment or private investment, overall value will go up.

Basically, when things are more expansive or the perception that the value would hold, more and more people will jump on the bandwagon. It is a cycle. Bullish signs.

However, public policy can correct and reverese all these. Say increase payment to 50% or supply twice as much land or even "turning away foreigners".. all these would push down the demand. The owners could hold as long as they have the ability to hold. If they loses their jobs, or fall into ill-fortune, in case of recession, that is the time you can see and get real bargains.

The vehicle can move as long as there's petrol in the tank. Take away the petrol, the car is there but it is a white elephant and cannot move at all. You can try to argue to Cars are like LH 99 buildings.. depreciated only. But when COE goes up, look at the prices. COE for buidlings will be b) and c)

Enough said. This forum is getting too boring for me.

[proper-t]

Donch worry, while property and property counters may be falling... construction counters will be doing very well going forward. Govt is pushing out infrastructure projects, Sg and Msian cooperation over the railway, Govt has promised to build more HDB flats equivalent to the size of Toa Payoh town, private property developers are rushing to sell their developments, all these activities will result in boom time charlie for the listed construction counters. :D :D :D

You can also check out this week's issue of The Edge for a more detailed write-up and analysis. :D

Wah...OKT also read Edge nowadays. Anyway, invest in OKT business the best ! Recession proof.

Market down, bros need to find comfort in ECA.

Market up, bros want to spend their new found wealth in pleasurable activities...

[teddybear]

Really wonder which you are looking at. For those prime properties that I am interested, I only go for choice units in the estate (because they are the best for own stay and easier to rent out and can fetch higher rents), owners are asking for 20+% above last transacted price &/or close to new launch price and not reducing. (Not going for new launch projects because of multiple reasons: I can't lay hand on those choice units; the space I get is much smaller than what I pay for because of lots of useless bay windows & planter areas vs those resale units). A few familiar agents looking out for me all say same thing (these agents have bought and sold for me before). Hoping for price to drop more than 20%.... :D


well you and i seem to have different reaction leh

those that i am interested are actually lowering their psf .. strange

eg...landed semi D from 3600-4200 sqft land

condo in D9 .. lowred their psf from 2150 psf to 2000 psf , AND negotiable ..

dont ask me where or which .. my personal agent friend is keeping track for me , how the price is moving (lower) over the past weeks ..

anyway .. i am not buying any yet ..
to me the effect is yet to be felt ...

[mantrix]

All are leasehold! NO freehold condo in Woodlands!

Correct. Even those landed in woodgrove are only 99LH.

Closest freehold will be in sembawang, only 3 FH condos along sembawang road, Sensoria(small), Seletaris(big) and Northwood(small).

[stalingrad]

Really wonder which you are looking at. For those prime properties that I am interested, I only go for choice units in the estate (because they are the best for own stay and easier to rent out and can fetch higher rents), owners are asking for 20+% above last transacted price &/or close to new launch price and not reducing. (Not going for new launch projects because of multiple reasons: I can't lay hand on those choice units; the space I get is much smaller than what I pay for because of lots of useless bay windows & planter areas vs those resale units). A few familiar agents looking out for me all say same thing (these agents have bought and sold for me before). Hoping for price to drop more than 20%.... :D

it takes a long time for policy changes to have an effect. let's see what will happen by the end of December. can't really tell the effect at this moment.

[proud owner]

dun have. only D26 to D28 have lots of FH landed. D25 only one area near the Turf club is freehold for landed. (no other amenties nearby whatsoever). all other residential landed or non-landed seems to be 99 year leasehold leh.

ok i am not sure where is D25 but he mentioned Seletaris ..

and opposite and side of seletaris all FH landed .. only springhill is LH clustered ..

unless he mixed up where seletaris is

[richwang]

have you viewed rosewood. My son will transfer to American School near by. I am interested in buying a condo nearby.

heard some good things about rosewood, like everything woody is solid wood. Have not got a chance to view. You like rosewood? how about casablanca?

Rosewood is very nice. I almost bought a 3 bedder when it was VVIP preview. I am staying in the North and working at Science Park. It took me 1 hour+ to travel to work (each way!). My UK, US and Japan friends never believe this could happen in Singapore! When I travel overseas, my hotel and office is just minutes walk. That partly explains sometimes I'd prefer travelling rather than staying at home. So unless you are really buying it for your own stay, u might not want to touch that area. I don't want to start another debate on the negtive impact of the MRT from Woodland to JB. Otherwise I will be called Dr. Doom by this forum. (By the way, he is my idol.)

I considered myself lucky as my investment MM is a FH in Pasir Panjang. So I can easily rent out to a professional, rather than at the risk of renting 3 rooms out in the North. (Take a visit to Orchid Park noticing the 10+ pairs of shoes outside the unit, you will know what I mean). The rental yeild is roughly the same (North slightly higher), but the trouble is less.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. I think u need special approval from MOE to get into American School if your son is Singaporean or PR.

[azeoprop]

Actually the fastest access to woodlands is springleaf, springside FH landed areas. Direct SLE to woodlands, 10mins at most. Quiet and nice neighbourhood with yum yum yong tou fu everyday haa haa. :p

There is a cluster of 7 new FH landed houses at platina road (behind northwoods) I think still got 2 units left for sale, top soon.

[proud owner]

Rosewood is very nice. I almost bought a 3 bedder when it was VVIP preview. I am staying in the North and working at Science Park. It took me 1 hour+ to travel to work (each way!). My UK, US and Japan friends never believe this could happen in Singapore! When I travel overseas, my hotel and office is just minutes walk. That partly explains sometimes I'd prefer travelling rather than staying at home. So unless you are really buying it for your own stay, u might not want to touch that area. I don't want to start another debate on the negtive impact of the MRT from Woodland to JB. Otherwise I will be called Dr. Doom by this forum. (By the way, he is my idol.)

I considered myself lucky as my investment MM is a FH in Pasir Panjang. So I can easily rent out to a professional, rather than at the risk of renting 3 rooms out in the North. (Take a visit to Orchid Park noticing the 10+ pairs of shoes outside the unit, you will know what I mean). The rental yeild is roughly the same (North slightly higher), but the trouble is less.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. I think u need special approval from MOE to get into American School if your son is Singaporean or PR.

as long as the school accepts the student ..no need MOE approval right ?

i have sporean friends whose children all in intl school

[stalingrad]

Rosewood is very nice. I almost bought a 3 bedder when it was VVIP preview. I am staying in the North and working at Science Park. It took me 1 hour+ to travel to work (each way!). My UK, US and Japan friends never believe this could happen in Singapore! When I travel overseas, my hotel and office is just minutes walk. That partly explains sometimes I'd prefer travelling rather than staying at home. So unless you are really buying it for your own stay, u might not want to touch that area. I don't want to start another debate on the negtive impact of the MRT from Woodland to JB. Otherwise I will be called Dr. Doom by this forum. (By the way, he is my idol.)

I considered myself lucky as my investment MM is a FH in Pasir Panjang. So I can easily rent out to a professional, rather than at the risk of renting 3 rooms out in the North. (Take a visit to Orchid Park noticing the 10+ pairs of shoes outside the unit, you will know what I mean). The rental yeild is roughly the same (North slightly higher), but the trouble is less.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. I think u need special approval from MOE to get into American School if your son is Singaporean or PR.
oh no, I thought it would take only half an hour to travel from woodlands to west coast. I looked at the MRT network, it looks as though it is a short travel from woodlands MRT to clementi MRT. perhaps it is not short.

perhaps I should just let my son stay in canadian school for a while.

No, my sons are not singaporeans.

[rattydrama]

ok i am not sure where is D25 but he mentioned Seletaris ..

and opposite and side of seletaris all FH landed .. only springhill is LH clustered ..

unless he mixed up where seletaris is

never mixed up, just saying nearest FH is seletaris, should have added semabwang. :cool:

BTW few weeks ago saw ppty guru market springhill below 1.1m

[proud owner]

Correct observation. Sorry if I sounded like talking down to you. I am used to it here.

1. Do you know why properties are at current prices? There are alot of factors at play if you want the exact answers but I will simply it for the sake of explaining it to common folks. The few key ones are

a) Increased Population

b) Increased Land Bid Prices

c) Increased Construction Cost and or Profit Margins

d) Increased Public Infrastructure (MRTs, Expressways, Shopping Centers, etc)

e) Increased Foreign Investments

I'll just touch on a) b) c) and d), which are internal factors, since e) are external factors.

a) Increased population, need room to stay, rental up and demand up for those who can afford it. Overall, HDB prices are supported. More demand, same supply or slower supply would be increased prices.

b) Increased Land bid prices - serves as reference point to property buyers. Will be willing to pay higher prices for land bids which cost more.

c) Increased Construction cost - serves as reference point to property buyers too. Will be willing to pay higher prices for projects which cost more. May not be rational but its logical, willing to pay more for projects that cost more to build. On profit margins, some are share holders and profits are channel back into projects.

d) Governments investment or private investment, overall value will go up.

Basically, when things are more expansive or the perception that the value would hold, more and more people will jump on the bandwagon. It is a cycle. Bullish signs.

However, public policy can correct and reverese all these. Say increase payment to 50% or supply twice as much land or even "turning away foreigners".. all these would push down the demand. The owners could hold as long as they have the ability to hold. If they loses their jobs, or fall into ill-fortune, in case of recession, that is the time you can see and get real bargains.

The vehicle can move as long as there's petrol in the tank. Take away the petrol, the car is there but it is a white elephant and cannot move at all. You can try to argue to Cars are like LH 99 buildings.. depreciated only. But when COE goes up, look at the prices. COE for buidlings will be b) and c)

Enough said. This forum is getting too boring for me.




ok cashrich i hear you .. and agree with you (to some extend)
which was why i bought 3 properties in 2005/6 based on your a b c d


its will be 5 yrs soon ..

in between ..prices has rallied alot ..
we are all aware of it .. so is our dear PAP


i just feel this time its different

anyway .. lets wait out for 3-6 mths and see what happens

[stalingrad]

as long as the school accepts the student ..no need MOE approval right ?

i have sporean friends whose children all in intl school
no, schools apply for permission from MOE for you. but if your kids are singaporean citizen with no foreign passports, they will not even apply for you, because it would be rejected. your friends' kids have dual citizenships.

[proud owner]

never mixed up, just saying nearest FH is seletaris, should have added semabwang. :cool:

BTW few weeks ago saw ppty guru market springhill below 1.1m

i think springhill has gone above 1.25 m before ..
have friends living there.. i dunno really fancy it .. narrow and tall .. climb will knee ache ..and top floor very stuffy n hot

of course the good thing is there 24 hr convenience shop ( petrol kiosk) and the nearby Chilli Crab and White Bee Hoon ...world best

[rattydrama]

Actually the fastest access to woodlands is springleaf, springside FH landed areas. Direct SLE to woodlands, 10mins at most. Quiet and nice neighbourhood with yum yum yong tou fu everyday haa haa. :p

There is a cluster of 7 new FH landed houses at platina road (behind northwoods) I think still got 2 units left for sale, top soon.

Left 3 units and sold 2 units last few weeks. Visited the site, above ground overseeing neighbour. Not bad. Around 2-2.9m if not wrong.

[proud owner]

no, schools apply for permission from MOE for you. but if your kids are singaporean citizen with no foreign passports, they will not even apply for you, because it would be rejected. your friends' kids have dual citizenships.

nope

husband and wife both sporeans ..kids too ..

just that both parents are foreign grad from XXX country .. and the Intl school of XXX accepted their kids

[rattydrama]

i think springhill has gone above 1.25 m before ..
have friends living there.. i dunno really fancy it .. narrow and tall .. climb will knee ache ..and top floor very stuffy n hot

of course the good thing is there 24 hr convenience shop ( petrol kiosk) and the nearby Chilli Crab and White Bee Hoon ...world best

Yes but being landed LH far away from town, price is difficult to climb any further, Saw so many units on sale, someone will have to break the price. pity the owners.

[rattydrama]

ok cashrich i hear you .. and agree with you (to some extend)
which was why i bought 3 properties in 2005/6 based on your a b c d


its will be 5 yrs soon ..

in between ..prices has rallied alot ..
we are all aware of it .. so is our dear PAP


i just feel this time its different

anyway .. lets wait out for 3-6 mths and see what happens


I hope that history will repeat itself. Spikes is good for property market. If not for own stay, will wait for 3-6 months cos think mid tier property still got hope to buy at discount.

Agree with cashrich on this "public policy and holding power".
So whichever the directions, these 2 factors must be considered for anyone who invest/play on properties.

[proud owner]

i just finished reading a 50 page report entitled " Global Property Guide"

sad to say ... in Asia, Thailand and Malaysia are recommended

they analysed Location, Growth, Rental Yield, Cost, Transaction Costs, etc ..

most importantly Gross Rental Yield ... and spore and HK fell way outside the investible grade ... despite the low interest rates and strong GDP

[richwang]

oh no, I thought it would take only half an hour to travel from woodlands to west coast. I looked at the MRT network, it looks as though it is a short travel from woodlands MRT to clementi MRT. perhaps it is not short.

perhaps I should just let my son stay in canadian school for a while.

No, my sons are not singaporeans.

The easiest way to time the jouney is try it out yourself at the same peak morning hours. Looking at the maps (or the official statistics) can be misleading. From Climenti MRT station, you might not be able to board the train - I mean the 2nd or 3rd. From Jurong East Interchange, try to wait for 2 or 3 trains. After woodland, forget about the long taxi queue (or empty taxi waiting for On-call charges). The bus will stop at every stop and it will take much longer time for people to get on and off. Your son will be lucky to reach from Climenti to Woodland in 1 hr. If you drive him, u need to wake up early, and the traffic will cost you easily 1 hr++ to and fro.
Canadian School is not bad, I think they use similar textbooks as American School. Of course, the school results of American School seems better (they normally have 1 get into Harvard each year). But that's more related to student rather than school.
Assuming you intend to stay long in Singapore (otherwise we won't find you in this forum), maybe u can try some local school. At least Jim Roger is doing that.

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

Mapletree Inductrial Fund will be selling at 8% yeild. If I were a fund manager, I would go for that rather than investing in residential property.

By the way, why is Mapletree selling at such a "high" yield? What is their slightly "longer" term view on the property market?

Thanks,
Richard

My mistake. Mapletree Logistic Trust is only yielding at 3.x%. The Private placement got another 5% discount. So total yeilding is 8%+.

http://www.mapletreelogisticstrust.com/data/resources/docs/newsfiles/PR/Results%20of%20Private%20Placement%20and%20Pricing%20of%20New%20Units%20under%20the%20Private%20Placement%20and%20Preferential%20Offering.pdf

My friend's statement of 8% is misleading.

Thanks,
Richard

[teddybear]

In Asia, Thailand is now a hot-bed (real hot, any time a bomb can explode beside you :p).
In Malaysia, the can't make it one for property. If you invest in their property more than 10 years ago, till now you are still losing money after factoring in loan rate and inflation + you can get rob and mugged any time. Your property if left vacant long enough (more than 1 week may be) will really become "vacant" (stripped of all contents, including the doors, windows metal/stainless steel gates, grills, & cables etc)! :doh:
Don't think any rich people want to buy properties to use as get-away and weekend homes there. (Remember, money is not of concern to them, as of yield, costs, growth etc that you mentioned. Somehow, the report you read didn't highlight the significant risks of owning properties and living in these places). :p
In terms of rental yield, Malaysia is also damn low (much much worse than Singapore if you factor in the loan rate costs and the risks associated with tenanting out), so I don't understand how they can recommend Malaysia based on rental yield? Also, very often the properties got stripped, tenants disappeared with all the contents. Similarly in terms of price growth, can forget about Malaysia. (I know Malaysia very well (don't need me to spell out the reasons)).


i just finished reading a 50 page report entitled " Global Property Guide"

sad to say ... in Asia, Thailand and Malaysia are recommended

they analysed Location, Growth, Rental Yield, Cost, Transaction Costs, etc ..

most importantly Gross Rental Yield ... and spore and HK fell way outside the investible grade ... despite the low interest rates and strong GDP

[stalingrad]

The easiest way to time the jouney is try it out yourself at the same peak morning hours. Looking at the maps (or the official statistics) can be misleading. From Climenti MRT station, you might not be able to board the train - I mean the 2nd or 3rd. From Jurong East Interchange, try to wait for 2 or 3 trains. After woodland, forget about the long taxi queue (or empty taxi waiting for On-call charges). The bus will stop at every stop and it will take much longer time for people to get on and off. Your son will be lucky to reach from Climenti to Woodland in 1 hr. If you drive him, u need to wake up early, and the traffic will cost you easily 1 hr++ to and fro.
Canadian School is not bad, I think they use similar textbooks as American School. Of course, the school results of American School seems better (they normally have 1 get into Harvard each year). But that's more related to student rather than school.
Assuming you intend to stay long in Singapore (otherwise we won't find you in this forum), maybe u can try some local school. At least Jim Roger is doing that.

Thanks,
Richard
Sorry that I confused you. We currently live in west coast. my kids go to canadian school. but as you said, american in woodlands is considered better. If we transfer my kids to SAS and we move to rosewood, then my kids wouldn't have to commute. It is I who has to commute, from woodland to west coast, where my job is. my wife has to too, from woodlands to CBD. but she drives. how long would be her journey to anson road, at 8:30am?

given your warning about commuiting time, I probably cannot spend less than one hour each way to commute between woodlands and west coast. so, my kids have to stay in CIS until they go home to toronto.

[rattydrama]

Malaysia property is for home stay only. You can try shop house, still got some hope if it is in good location. You can buy property within walking distance to check point in my opinion - I think it is the best you can get.

This report could be flawed. It does not take into consideration a lot of other factors. How cheap is cheap, it can go even cheaper since there are plenty of land.

[richwang]

In Asia, Thailand is now a hot-bed (real hot, any time a bomb can explode beside you :p).
In Malaysia, the can't make it one for property. If you invest in their property more than 10 years ago, till now you are still losing money after factoring in loan rate and inflation + you can get rob and mugged any time. Your property if left vacant long enough (more than 1 week may be) will really become "vacant" (stripped of all contents, including the doors, windows metal/stainless steel gates, grills, & cables etc)! :doh:
Don't think any rich people want to buy properties to use as get-away and weekend homes there. (Remember, money is not of concern to them, as of yield, costs, growth etc that you mentioned. Somehow, the report you read didn't highlight the significant risks of owning properties and living in these places). :p
In terms of rental yield, Malaysia is also damn low (much much worse than Singapore if you factor in the loan rate costs and the risks associated with tenanting out), so I don't understand how they can recommend Malaysia based on rental yield? Also, very often the properties got stripped, tenants disappeared with all the contents. Similarly in terms of price growth, can forget about Malaysia. (I know Malaysia very well (don't need me to spell out the reasons)).

I have been seriously looking into Malaysia (Iskandar in particular). But the bank loan rate of 5%++ really makes the net rental yield towards negtive. And I suspect it will also eat into my credit line in Singapore. So I will keep an eye on it. Even when the price increase by 50%, I hope I can still afford it. Two things I am watching:

1) The local MRT system and the linkage with Singapore;
2) Where Temasek Health is going to invest.

Never say "never". Even if you were from Maylasia, you can still miss the boat. (I was from China and completely missed the property boom there.)
Rental can change, so need to keep a close eye on it. My friends from China are investing in Malaysia now. My fellow Singaporeans (I am a Singaporen now) are also investing in Malaysia. So I don't want to miss the boat this time. The price is a franction of that in Singapore. The upside under the new leadership can shock us 10 years later.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. I am going to take a train from Tanjong Pager to Malaysia. Anyone wants to join?

[stalingrad]

In Asia, Thailand is now a hot-bed (real hot, any time a bomb can explode beside you :p).
In Malaysia, the can't make it one for property. If you invest in their property more than 10 years ago, till now you are still losing money after factoring in loan rate and inflation + you can get rob and mugged any time. Your property if left vacant long enough (more than 1 week may be) will really become "vacant" (stripped of all contents, including the doors, windows metal/stainless steel gates, grills, & cables etc)! :doh:
Don't think any rich people want to buy properties to use as get-away and weekend homes there. (Remember, money is not of concern to them, as of yield, costs, growth etc that you mentioned. Somehow, the report you read didn't highlight the significant risks of owning properties and living in these places). :p
In terms of rental yield, Malaysia is also damn low (much much worse than Singapore if you factor in the loan rate costs and the risks associated with tenanting out), so I don't understand how they can recommend Malaysia based on rental yield? Also, very often the properties got stripped, tenants disappeared with all the contents. Similarly in terms of price growth, can forget about Malaysia. (I know Malaysia very well (don't need me to spell out the reasons)).

i agree with teddy on this. I will never live in malaysia or thailand. I don't want to die.

[devilplate]

I have been seriously looking into Malaysia (Iskandar in particular). But the bank loan rate of 5%++ really makes the net rental yield towards negtive. And I suspect it will also eat into my credit line in Singapore. So I will keep an eye on it. Even when the price increase by 50%, I hope I can still afford it. Two things I am watching:

1) The local MRT system and the linkage with Singapore;
2) Where Temasek Health is going to invest.

Never say "never". Even if you were from Maylasia, you can still miss the boat. (I was from China and completely missed the property boom there.)
Rental can change, so need to keep a close eye on it. My friends from China are investing in Malaysia now. My fellow Singaporeans (I am a Singaporen now) are also investing in Malaysia. So I don't want to miss the boat this time. The price is a franction of that in Singapore. The upside under the new leadership can shock us 10 years later.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. I am going to take a train from Tanjong Pager to Malaysia. Anyone wants to join?

my msian relatives say Iskandar is a gimmick...lol

they say ghost will rent there....probably goto pay in full and leave it vacant and pray no break-in

[devilplate]

i agree with teddy on this. I will never live in malaysia or thailand. I don't want to die.

same same, i dare not drive into msia...occasionally take coach bus to genting only....but i prefer to go macau nowadays....safer:D

[DC33_2008]

IMO, stability of the country is a very important criterion which it comes to property investment in a foreign land. A weakened x-changed rate can wipe out the capital gain of a property.

[peterng8]

we already discussed this right? high $ quantum units could be hit. proud owner thinks $2m to $3m and beyond types could struggle while i think $3m to $5m types could struggle. above $5m type is immune as u said, was not moving before already so remains the same.

at the mass market, pple who can't afford higher prices go for the lower priced units so prices could initially see support like the e.g. above. let's see how the market sorts itself out in the months ahead. too early to say anything.

some agent told me that at west area near mrt and amenities where they purposely place the price at 5% lower, they are overwhelmed by phone call by owner and by buyers ...:D they are testing the price now...still buyer lurking around...

[richwang]

my msian relatives say Iskandar is a gimmick...lol

they say ghost will rent there....probably goto pay in full and leave it vacant and pray no break-in

Imagin when you can use CPF MediSave there, and Temasek build a mini-socioty there.

I went onsite to view a few houses, people are happily living there. But shocked when I was told the rental is RM 1000. I went there in daytime, the roads are not completely built. No lights. So it may not be very safe in the evenings. But imgine when you have local MRT system built-up.

I also went to some selling events in Singaproe Hotels. Some old folks have bought retirement houses there. They are also very happy. (just a selling tactic?).

I will definetely visit there regularly - just to make sure I won't miss the boat.

Just to share: Can you image my childhood memory of the river in front of my flat back in China has now been turned into a main road? That was supposed to be an outer city area, but now it is consider very "central" - just a 8 min taxi ride to the City Hall there, but I used to spend half an hour on bicycle. I need a map to navigate the "new" city! That's when I decided to call Singapore home after staying here for 16 years.

Are you sure Iskanta will not be a retirement villange after 16 years? At least I am not sure.

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

I just heard from a friend that Singapore is changing the rule for Investment PR. In the new rule, the amount has been increased. And property doesn't count.

Can anyone post the link of the related news?

Will that bring down the high end price?

Who is going to pay 37M in Sentosa if they cannot even get a PR?

Thanks,
Richard

[rattydrama]

same same, i dare not drive into msia...occasionally take coach bus to genting only....but i prefer to go macau nowadays....safer:D

Just last week opposite my brother in law's Taman – there is a house where a 15 years old was nearly kidnapped. The boy struggled right in front of the gate and shouted. The father came to the rescue and the boy suffered a deep cut on his hand. The kidnapper fire 2 shots and fortunately, no one was injured.

I hear him say it once or twice a year. Robbery happens in his estate quite often because there are several roads link to this Taman so the robbers, thiefs or kidnappers can escape pretty fast.

He is still staying there because he is used to this location and selling will immediately make a lost in capital.

The estate where I bought my house during 1998 is still safe cos there is only one Road in and out of the estate and so far never hear such things being said.

I drive to Malaysia almost every week. Last week to KL for a wedding dinner. You probably need to know the place and have relatives there. Parking at shopping complex is a no no - potential risk for the car to be stolen and to be sold else where, the favoriate models are MPVs - toyota pinic, honda stream....:tsk-tsk:

[devilplate]

Just last week opposite my brother in law's Taman – there is a house where a 15 years old was nearly kidnapped. The boy struggled right in front of the gate and shouted. The father came to the rescue and the boy suffered a deep cut on his hand. The kidnapper fire 2 shots and fortunately, no one was injured.

I hear him say it once or twice a year. Robbery happens in his estate quite often because there are several roads link to this Taman so the robbers, thiefs or kidnappers can escape pretty fast.

He is still staying there because he is used to this location and selling will immediately make a lost in capital.

The estate where I bought my house during 1998 is still safe cos there is only one Road in and out of the estate and so far never hear such things being said.




ic..many such cases....once kidnapped, tats it...gone forever:scared-3:

[rattydrama]

some agent told me that at west area near mrt and amenities where they purposely place the price at 5% lower, they are overwhelmed by phone call by owner and by buyers ...:D they are testing the price now...still buyer lurking around...

no wonder cannot get bargain price - lots of buyers out here!!! Must quantify - at least for now!:eek:

[DC33_2008]

I have heard of an incident in JB that the a nice bungalow was ransacked with doors, light fixture, etc taken away as it was empty. Too risky.

[richwang]

Just last week opposite my brother in law's Taman – there is a house where a 15 years old was nearly kidnapped. The boy struggled right in front of the gate and shouted. The father came to the rescue and the boy suffered a deep cut on his hand. The kidnapper fire 2 shots and fortunately, no one was injured.

I hear him say it once or twice a year. Robbery happens in his estate quite often because there are several roads link to this Taman so the robbers, thiefs or kidnappers can escape pretty fast.

He is still staying there because he is used to this location and selling will immediately make a lost in capital.

The estate where I bought my house during 1998 is still safe cos there is only one Road in and out of the estate and so far never hear such things being said.

I drive to Malaysia almost every week. Last week to KL for a wedding dinner. You probably need to know the place and have relatives there. Parking at shopping complex is a no no - potential risk for the car to be stolen and to be sold else where, the favoriate models are MPVs - toyota pinic, honda stream....:tsk-tsk:

Thanks for sharing. This is a little bit scaring. Will it be safe to take the train at Tanjong Pager? Richard

[rattydrama]

try to look as broke as possible - these people target rich Singaporeans - one indicator - drive big cars and dress well.

take train quite safe.

[DC33_2008]

I was held at knife point as I walk out of KL train station some years back. I swore that I will not take a train again.

[richwang]

I was held at knife point as I walk out of KL train station some years back. I swore that I will not take a train again.

Oh dear! Then I need to gather a larger group to go. I am definetly going before the train operation stops.

When I travel to less developed countries, I normally have USD 10 changes in my pocket. Sometime, you just need to show some respect. Imaging they are making something like USD 2 a day.

Thanks again. I guess I will need to prepare for this, such as learn some simple Malay words - just to show respect.

Cheers!
Richard

[rattydrama]

Another Story

You heard of Kemayan City nearer to Skudai Area? It was built and nearly completed some 12 years ago. When it was released for sale, a lot of buyers queue to get a shop unit there. Some try to buy from sub sale but the owner refused to bite thinking the price will go up once completed.

Suddenly, the developer went burst. You know what happens now? No one wants to take over that piece of junk and all valuables have been sold - metal, cables, pipes and fittings that were installed earlier. The security guards have a hand in it.

The buyer gave up paying the installments (RM6k per month) to the bank and transferred all his other properties to his sons and re-loan again on those properties.

Richwang,

Malaysia property is too high risk to bet. Amongst others, one key reason is the political stability.

Political influence, depending who is on the PM play a bigger role. I think our PM Lee SH and Najib can talk terms. Should the next person come on board who is very pro malay and against foreign investment, the ball game will change.

During Mahatir’s era, the power of Ah Kongs from all states have been restrained while they still enjoy loyal privileges. However, not so sure after few generations of PMs rulings, will these Ah Kong of different states find a way to gain back their power? Someone will need to read up the history books to understand how Mahatir did it during his time.

China on the other hand, enjoys one party ruling with baggage of history so there is no issue, they will not anyhow shift goal post.

[DC33_2008]

They were Chinese. I was stopped next to a traffic light at about 6.30am. The cars passing by did not help. Remember to spread out your money.
I was held at knife point as I walk out of KL train station some years back. I swore that I will not take a train again.

[amk]

as long as the school accepts the student ..no need MOE approval right ?

For PR pupils, no need MOE approval.
For SC pupils, MOE approval is needed. And mind you it's not just a formality paper work. You need to provide serious, legitimate reasons. ("I dun like the Singapore education system" is NOT one of them) And MOE takes a long time to consider each case.

stalingrad: american school has a queue now, have you started queuing already ? There are some nice LH houses just next to the school, selling very cheap (<1M). Lots of americans living there. On the other hand, traveling down from woodland to CBD or west coast either by public transport or car is a nightmare.

[amk]

Really wonder which you are looking at. For those prime properties that I am interested...owners are asking for 20+% above last transacted price... and not reducing. Hoping for price to drop more than 20%.... :D
interesting, same experience here. for the prime project unit I'm looking at, the owner kept on increasing the asking price. twice already over the last month. One after 30 Aug !
I also hope for a 20% drop. :D

[peterng8]

no wonder cannot get bargain price - lots of buyers out here!!! Must quantify - at least for now!:eek:

I bet you are also one of them looking for bargain price..and not to mention others...in this forum and outside this forum...the price will only drop when people offer bargain price also no one wants just like previous years when there is no buyer even the price is so low...:2cents: economy no good is one of the reasons...

this is actual feelings at the ground no need prediction from guru or experts ... blar blar...this is what happening now..:2cents:

[stalingrad]

For PR pupils, no need MOE approval.
For SC pupils, MOE approval is needed. And mind you it's not just a formality paper work. You need to provide serious, legitimate reasons. ("I dun like the Singapore education system" is NOT one of them) And MOE takes a long time to consider each case.

stalingrad: american school has a queue now, have you started queuing already ? There are some nice LH houses just next to the school, selling very cheap (<1M). Lots of americans living there. On the other hand, traveling down from woodland to CBD or west coast either by public transport or car is a nightmare.

thank you and richard for the information. I guess we have to make alternative plans. living in Woodland and commuting to work for me and my wife is probably a no no.

Probably we should find a home in D21, close to both woodland and west coast. signature park would be a candidate.

[Rysk]

I have heard of an incident in JB that the a nice bungalow was ransacked with doors, light fixture, etc taken away as it was empty. Too risky.

Is common in JB.
Our company have 2 old type of terrace house, housing our Malaysian supervisor & foreman, etc. Every now & then have break-in.. steal even cheap stuff like hand tools & equipment etc.. cos inside the house no $$ one!

[teddybear]

After 30 Aug, I was very happy as thought price will drop and start looking actively at the advertisements for those advertising lower prices in good estates. Call them up and they will say make appt to see, then on actual day agents said units already sold, then start to persuade me on some other properties which they purported as cheaper based on $PSF etc. Obviously I see through this as I can tell all those they are trying to sell me are either the lousy units in the same estate or even units in nearby lousy estates but trying to sell as though they are cheaper than premium choice units & premium estates!


interesting, same experience here. for the prime project unit I'm looking at, the owner kept on increasing the asking price. twice already over the last month. One after 30 Aug !
I also hope for a 20% drop. :D

[richwang]

thank you and richard for the information. I guess we have to make alternative plans. living in Woodland and commuting to work for me and my wife is probably a no no.

Probably we should find a home in D21, close to both woodland and west coast. signature park would be a candidate.

My son's case shows student matters more than school. He was a PR, couldn't get a seat in any good school here. We've indeed tried American School, but need MOE approval (yes, PR needs approval), and fee is in the range I am willing to pay for his university, not Primary school. He ended up in a below-average neighbourhood in the North, walking distance from where we stay. He topped the School in PLSE (the national exam) and entered into one of the top school in Singapore. (He cannot even top the class now. So he won't be going to Harvard regardless whether he is studying in American School or Canadian School. )
Years later, I've found another trick, he could have transfered to "better" schools even he couldn't get into them in the first place. I've asked him: do you want your son to study in a "good" school? If yes, we will try to buy some property in those areas. After serious thinking, he replied: "I'd prefer my son also study in neighbourhood school. The feel that you can always get No. 1 even without much study is good for charecter building. You can face the reality at a later stage of life, not at primary."

Walking distance is still something I'd prefer. Use the travel time to study (or play), your childern will get a better result.

Thanks,
Richard

[Wild Falcon]

Different people have different risk appetite. Just because some people lose money in casino doesn't mean all others will. just because some people lose money is a development doesn't mean another person who enters at the right time will. It's about timing. Some bros here seem to think Singapore property is the BEST and SAFEST investment, especially high-end. Really? Is the yield really that great? Is the growth potential really that great? Does Singapore or Hong Kong at today's price still better investment than Malaysia or indonesia? Some say they only buy blue chip companies. Really? If you buy blue chip at the wrong time, also can lose money. If political stability is the only thing that is holding Malaysia property back, then what if that risk goes away?

High risk - high return. So for 10,000 others who don't dare to invest in Malaysia because scared this scared that, or don't dare to find hidden gems outside traditional prime areas because scared this scared that, there will be 1 who will dare to be the challenger to invest and be a first mover and who knows maybe he will be amply rewarded? It's like there're 100,000 enterpreneurs who failed. But it doesn't mean one shouldn't take risk or pursue his beliefs.


Another Story

You heard of Kemayan City nearer to Skudai Area? It was built and nearly completed some 12 years ago. When it was released for sale, a lot of buyers queue to get a shop unit there. Some try to buy from sub sale but the owner refused to bite thinking the price will go up once completed.

Suddenly, the developer went burst. You know what happens now? No one wants to take over that piece of junk and all valuables have been sold - metal, cables, pipes and fittings that were installed earlier. The security guards have a hand in it.

The buyer gave up paying the installments (RM6k per month) to the bank and transferred all his other properties to his sons and re-loan again on those properties.

Richwang,

Malaysia property is too high risk to bet. Amongst others, one key reason is the political stability.

Political influence, depending who is on the PM play a bigger role. I think our PM Lee SH and Najib can talk terms. Should the next person come on board who is very pro malay and against foreign investment, the ball game will change.

During Mahatir’s era, the power of Ah Kongs from all states have been restrained while they still enjoy loyal privileges. However, not so sure after few generations of PMs rulings, will these Ah Kong of different states find a way to gain back their power? Someone will need to read up the history books to understand how Mahatir did it during his time.

China on the other hand, enjoys one party ruling with baggage of history so there is no issue, they will not anyhow shift goal post.

[Wild Falcon]

I agree - it's a person's ability matters more than the school but unfortunately, most parents don't believe so. Every parent seem to think the child is a hidden genius. Even nowadays gifted is a fluke because there are tuition classes to teach the students the standard "gifted" questions and gives 100% guarantee those who attended the gifted tuition will enter into GEP.

Gifted? Really? More like memorising standard answers and following standard steps. End up the really gifted were left out :)


My son's case shows student matters more than school. He was a PR, couldn't get a seat in any good school here. We've indeed tried American School, but need MOE approval (yes, PR needs approval), and fee is in the range I am willing to pay for his university, not Primary school. He ended up in a below-average neighbourhood in the North, walking distance from where we stay. He topped the School in PLSE (the national exam) and entered into one of the top school in Singapore. (He cannot even top the class now. So he won't be going to Harvard regardless whether he is studying in American School or Canadian School. )
Years later, I've found another trick, he could have transfered to "better" schools even he couldn't get into them in the first place. I've asked him: do you want your son to study in a "good" school? If yes, we will try to buy some property in those areas. After serious thinking, he replied: "I'd prefer my son also study in neighbourhood school. The feel that you can always get No. 1 even without much study is good for charecter building. You can face the reality at a later stage of life, not at primary."

Walking distance is still something I'd prefer. Use the travel time to study (or play), your childern will get a better result.

Thanks,
Richard

[maisonjai]

I just heard from a friend that Singapore is changing the rule for Investment PR. In the new rule, the amount has been increased. And property doesn't count.

Can anyone post the link of the related news?


Harder now for million-dollar investors to become PRs




SINGAPORE


It is a permanent residence scheme for million-dollar investors, one which spells out clearly the financial criteria that an applicant needs to fulfill. But from Oct 1, foreign entrepreneurs applying for permanent residence under the Contact Singapore’s Global Investor Programme (GIP) will find the bar raised.
They must now have a company turnover of at least $30 million per annum in the most recent year and at least $30 million per annum on average for the last three years to qualify. Previously, they needed at least $10 million in the most recent year and $10 million on average for the last three years.
Also, from Jan 1, they will have to invest at least $2.5 million in a new business entity; or in the expansion of an existing business operation; or in a GIP-approved
fund. In the past, entrepreneurs needed only to invest between $1 million and $2 million.
The changes, announced on Aug 31 on the Contact Singapore website, come on the back of a tighter immigration policy. They are also a sign that the Government is being “more selective” about the kind of foreigners the country is taking in, said Government Parliamentary Committee (Manpower) deputy chairman Charles Chong.
“In slowing down the number of immigrants,
we could either set the criteria higher or resort to balloting which we don’t want. We want to attract higher category applicants. These economic migrants are
beneficial for the country,” he said.
Mr Chong, who is a Member of Parliament for the Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC, dismissed the notion that this was an election ploy. He described the move as a “general policy shift to reduce the number of immigrants”.
However, he acknowledged that the changes could result in fewer entrepreneurs qualifying under the GIP scheme.
Still, Mr Chong added: “The policy is not cast in stone, I’m sure the Government will be flexible and adjust to the needs of the nation.”

[Geylang OKT]

I was held at knife point as I walk out of KL train station some years back. I swore that I will not take a train again.

So were you raped? :D

[gfoo]

Love this forum! It's like a microcosm of middle class singapore.

Over the years here, i've come to better understand the different psyches, classes, motivations and agendas of these different pockets of people and i must say, it is extremely interesting.

The more i understand, the more i keep quiet and the less i post. I juxtapose with the noises heard on TR, TOC, CNA and ST Forum. The middle class is finding a voice, but a good part of that voice has a high propensity to self-snook. But it's too late - all that noise has set things in motion that will only lead down one path. The wealth divide will increase significantly.

For many, all i can say is that take comfort in what you buy and start loving your purchase. It's a home, and a home is where your heart is.

For those that bought MMs, good luck.

For the rest esp those still looking to buy, two words of advice: rent & travel. Don't get suckered in by agents and their sweet words, or brochures and their pretty pictures, or tvcs showing a pretty pan-asian sipping champagne over ang mo kio mrt.

go and try out living in the area you want to buy. Go and try living in the mm or 5 bedder you want to buy. Locality, close to mrt, far from mrt, landed, etc etc. When you go for overseas travel, rent condo apartments instead of staying in hotel, kaypoh a bit and go for property launches. Stay at friends places; walk and take the tube rather than a limo. take public transport and purposely get lost in their heartlands.

then come back and make your informed decision, tempered by first hand experience rather than sweet marketing words.

my humble, amateur 2 cents that prob won't resonate with many here anyways.

[Condorich]

Love this forum! It's like a microcosm of middle class singapore.

Over the years here, i've come to better understand the different psyches, classes, motivations and agendas of these different pockets of people and i must say, it is extremely interesting.

The more i understand, the more i keep quiet and the less i post. I juxtapose with the noises heard on TR, TOC, CNA and ST Forum. The middle class is finding a voice, but a good part of that voice has a high propensity to self-snook. But it's too late - all that noise has set things in motion that will only lead down one path. The wealth divide will increase significantly.

For many, all i can say is that take comfort in what you buy and start loving your purchase. It's a home, and a home is where your heart is.

For those that bought MMs, good luck.

For the rest esp those still looking to buy, two words of advice: rent & travel. Don't get suckered in by agents and their sweet words, or brochures and their pretty pictures, or tvcs showing a pretty pan-asian sipping champagne over ang mo kio mrt.

go and try out living in the area you want to buy. Go and try living in the mm or 5 bedder you want to buy. Locality, close to mrt, far from mrt, landed, etc etc. When you go for overseas travel, rent condo apartments instead of staying in hotel, kaypoh a bit and go for property launches. Stay at friends places; walk and take the tube rather than a limo. take public transport and purposely get lost in their heartlands.

then come back and make your informed decision, tempered by first hand experience rather than sweet marketing words.

my humble, amateur 2 cents that prob won't resonate with many here anyways.

I agree. That's why I have gone missing for a while. I've decided to go away again and resurface only when I feel like it.

Ever wonder why the admin has stopped allowing new members to be registered after 30 Aug 10? If you are smart, you would know that this forum is likely to be used by agents as a vehicle to (fill in the banks yourself) those innocent first time, HDB buyer/investors.

I'll use the word Welcome.

Gates are open, Welcome, Welcome.

[pengful]

Love this forum! It's like a microcosm of middle class singapore.

Over the years here, i've come to better understand the different psyches, classes, motivations and agendas of these different pockets of people and i must say, it is extremely interesting.

The more i understand, the more i keep quiet and the less i post. I juxtapose with the noises heard on TR, TOC, CNA and ST Forum. The middle class is finding a voice, but a good part of that voice has a high propensity to self-snook. But it's too late - all that noise has set things in motion that will only lead down one path. The wealth divide will increase significantly.

For many, all i can say is that take comfort in what you buy and start loving your purchase. It's a home, and a home is where your heart is.

For those that bought MMs, good luck.

For the rest esp those still looking to buy, two words of advice: rent & travel. Don't get suckered in by agents and their sweet words, or brochures and their pretty pictures, or tvcs showing a pretty pan-asian sipping champagne over ang mo kio mrt.

go and try out living in the area you want to buy. Go and try living in the mm or 5 bedder you want to buy. Locality, close to mrt, far from mrt, landed, etc etc. When you go for overseas travel, rent condo apartments instead of staying in hotel, kaypoh a bit and go for property launches. Stay at friends places; walk and take the tube rather than a limo. take public transport and purposely get lost in their heartlands.

then come back and make your informed decision, tempered by first hand experience rather than sweet marketing words.

my humble, amateur 2 cents that prob won't resonate with many here anyways.

Good advice indeed. People trying to rush in to buy at whatever prices the developers have so successfully advertised (and planting seeds telling you that you will miss out if you don't) should take a break and re-assess yourselves.

The "kiasu-kiasi" attitude fueling the ridiculous prices has to be brought down to earth. But whatever you do, go check your bank account first. The age of borrowing for the future has to be moderated.

[proud owner]

Good advice indeed. People trying to rush in to buy at whatever prices the developers have so successfully advertised (and planting seeds telling you that you will miss out if you don't) should take a break and re-assess yourselves.

The "kiasu-kiasi" attitude fueling the ridiculous prices has to be brought down to earth. But whatever you do, go check your bank account first. The age of borrowing for the future has to be moderated.


kiasu makes people rush in to buy
kiasi makes people hold back

kiasu and kiasi are what we labelled as Fear ...

Fear powered both buying, as well as waiting

if there is no Fear, prices will not go up , nor come down

just a matter of which Fear is stronger

[taggy]

kiasu makes people rush in to buy
kiasi makes people hold back

kiasu and kiasi are what we labelled as Fear ...

Fear powered both buying, as well as waiting

if there is no Fear, prices will not go up , nor come down

just a matter of which Fear is stronger

also apply to:
kiasu = investor hold back from selling (hoping for ever rising price)
kiasi = make him sell (current market price or slight discount)

[bargain hunter]

wah, only 4 threads are active in the past 9 hours. quiet siah. :ashamed1: more data for richwang to analyse. :)

[proud owner]

wah, only 4 threads are active in the past 9 hours. quiet siah. :ashamed1: more data for richwang to analyse. :)

this forum is dying

we better start to exhange e mail addresses before we are die of natural web shut down

[bargain hunter]

won't leh. skyscrapercity forum was very active in 2007, since then very quiet but still there. still got pple post. :) over here, i dunno why. heard vacanza sold 100 units at preview yesterday but even that thread is pretty quiet.




this forum is dying

we better start to exhange e mail addresses before we are die of natural web shut down

[devilplate]

wah, only 4 threads are active in the past 9 hours. quiet siah. :ashamed1: more data for richwang to analyse. :)

tat guy vy funny lah....shd do actual groundwork such as visit new launches and analyse from there

btw, genting is dropping! hmmm..his 1.8 not too far away....

[gfoo]

best, someone organize a friendly kopi session to tkss soon lah - agents not welcome (unless you are a chiobu)

[devilplate]

won't leh. skyscrapercity forum was very active in 2007, since then very quiet but still there. still got pple post. :) over here, i dunno why. heard vacanza sold 100 units at preview yesterday but even that thread is pretty quiet.

hoi hup declined to provide sales number:beats-me-man:

[proud owner]

best, someone organize a friendly kopi session to tkss soon lah - agents not welcome (unless you are a chiobu)


you must be teochew ....

havent heard Chiobu ...for a long time


if any tkss private party please include me

i shud be back in jan for a short trip

[vboy]

fully totally agree!
and that is exactly what i have done ...

just bought a unit that i totally love ...
its what i need exactly .. a refuge and shelter from the outside chaos
a place where i can indulge in being who i am .. ie a people's person.

i cannot ever stand living in a MM, cos i love inviting friends over for sunday brunches, dinner parties and even overseas friends to shack up in the guest room.

and i love having a little herb garden, so a balcony is very important but not too big until it overtakes my indoor space :)

i am so glad after searching for months i finally found my dream home!
:)


Love this forum! It's like a microcosm of middle class singapore.

Over the years here, i've come to better understand the different psyches, classes, motivations and agendas of these different pockets of people and i must say, it is extremely interesting.

The more i understand, the more i keep quiet and the less i post. I juxtapose with the noises heard on TR, TOC, CNA and ST Forum. The middle class is finding a voice, but a good part of that voice has a high propensity to self-snook. But it's too late - all that noise has set things in motion that will only lead down one path. The wealth divide will increase significantly.

For many, all i can say is that take comfort in what you buy and start loving your purchase. It's a home, and a home is where your heart is.

For those that bought MMs, good luck.

For the rest esp those still looking to buy, two words of advice: rent & travel. Don't get suckered in by agents and their sweet words, or brochures and their pretty pictures, or tvcs showing a pretty pan-asian sipping champagne over ang mo kio mrt.

go and try out living in the area you want to buy. Go and try living in the mm or 5 bedder you want to buy. Locality, close to mrt, far from mrt, landed, etc etc. When you go for overseas travel, rent condo apartments instead of staying in hotel, kaypoh a bit and go for property launches. Stay at friends places; walk and take the tube rather than a limo. take public transport and purposely get lost in their heartlands.

then come back and make your informed decision, tempered by first hand experience rather than sweet marketing words.

my humble, amateur 2 cents that prob won't resonate with many here anyways.

[devilplate]

fully totally agree!
and that is exactly what i have done ...

just bought a unit that i totally love ...
its what i need exactly .. a refuge and shelter from the outside chaos
a place where i can indulge in being who i am .. ie a people's person.

i cannot ever stand living in a MM, cos i love inviting friends over for sunday brunches, dinner parties and even overseas friends to shack up in the guest room.

and i love having a little herb garden, so a balcony is very important but not too big until it overtakes my indoor space :)

i am so glad after searching for months i finally found my dream home!
:)

congrats:D

[proud owner]

fully totally agree!
and that is exactly what i have done ...

just bought a unit that i totally love ...
its what i need exactly .. a refuge and shelter from the outside chaos
a place where i can indulge in being who i am .. ie a people's person.

i cannot ever stand living in a MM, cos i love inviting friends over for sunday brunches, dinner parties and even overseas friends to shack up in the guest room.

and i love having a little herb garden, so a balcony is very important but not too big until it overtakes my indoor space :)

i am so glad after searching for months i finally found my dream home!
:)


congrats ...

MM owners will never understand what space lovers want ..
MM owners will live alone, no friends ( more than 2)would come visit unless its gathering held downstairs or at lift lobby
MM oweners will LOVE being invited to OUR HOME ... to enjoy OUR SPACE

[gfoo]

you must be teochew ....

havent heard Chiobu ...for a long time


if any tkss private party please include me

i shud be back in jan for a short trip

quite sharp :)

pm me when you back lah

[bargain hunter]

yah, richwang is now rich! put warrant bet paying off. :)

u called hoi hup? how u know they dun want to disclose sales no.? surely the huttons' agents should know?



tat guy vy funny lah....shd do actual groundwork such as visit new launches and analyse from there

btw, genting is dropping! hmmm..his 1.8 not too far away....

[gn108]

Yup - I only visit this and skyscrapercity forums and both are v quiet.
Perhaps the main contributors know that property market will only quieten down from here. No point talking about something that is not going to move for awhile esp with new measures.

Maybe a new SG 2010/11 Election forum is in order to lift the boredom - relevant to property and stocks as well.



won't leh. skyscrapercity forum was very active in 2007, since then very quiet but still there. still got pple post. :) over here, i dunno why. heard vacanza sold 100 units at preview yesterday but even that thread is pretty quiet.

[devilplate]

you must be teochew ....

havent heard Chiobu ...for a long time


if any tkss private party please include me

i shud be back in jan for a short trip

not teochew also noes chiobu...tua nei bu la...:p

[proud owner]

quite sharp :)

pm me when you back lah

i sure will ....

now at Lake Placid holidaying ... damn nice

15 deg only ...

check it out .. my cabin is 2 feet from the lake

www.lakeplacidlodge.com (http://www.lakeplacidlodge.com)

[stalingrad]

wah, only 4 threads are active in the past 9 hours. quiet siah. :ashamed1: more data for richwang to analyse. :)

when I, avatar,xebay and teddy start fighting again, you will get 1000 postings in one hour.

[devilplate]

when I, avatar,xebay and teddy start fighting again, you will get 1000 postings in one hour.

hey, luckily u chickened out:cheers6:

[stalingrad]

hey, luckily u chickened out:cheers6:

the war has just started. go check out the parc page.

[richwang]

tat guy vy funny lah....shd do actual groundwork such as visit new launches and analyse from there

btw, genting is dropping! hmmm..his 1.8 not too far away....

You are right. The Put warrant has increased 20% since I was last talking. The chart still looks very ugly. It reminds me about Citi during financial crisis.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. I must disclose, I am in short position.

[stalingrad]

You are right. The Put warrant has increased 20% since I was last talking. The chart still looks very ugly. It reminds me about Citi during financial crisis.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. I must disclose, I am in short position.

wow, you are a short. you are daredevil. I never short. when I see some bad stocks, I just not buy. but I have never shorted stocks. there is no telling how much you may lose.

[rattydrama]

Thanks for responding. I like to agree with you on this aspect, but relatives in Malaysia they themselves have no faith in housing property and do not recommend buying property for investment. I do not know as an outsiders but visit Malaysia quite often have to defy such advice.

In be more correct, KL residential property did increase in prices and I have friends who actually bought at low and sold at high. Timing is important. JB property may not be the case base on historical records. So I am not too sure if any guys here still want to bet. If yes, go for CIQ areas.

http://www.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/Malaysia/Story/A1Story20100928-239422.html

Base on what is it now, still can venture into shop houses or industrial land for long term.

Well, risk appetite varies but how many will want to bet 100% of their wealth in casino to win big? Losing some monies to learn how to play a game and improve on our skills to increase our wins is better than loosing all.


Different people have different risk appetite. Just because some people lose money in casino doesn't mean all others will. just because some people lose money is a development doesn't mean another person who enters at the right time will. It's about timing. Some bros here seem to think Singapore property is the BEST and SAFEST investment, especially high-end. Really? Is the yield really that great? Is the growth potential really that great? Does Singapore or Hong Kong at today's price still better investment than Malaysia or indonesia? Some say they only buy blue chip companies. Really? If you buy blue chip at the wrong time, also can lose money. If political stability is the only thing that is holding Malaysia property back, then what if that risk goes away?

High risk - high return. So for 10,000 others who don't dare to invest in Malaysia because scared this scared that, or don't dare to find hidden gems outside traditional prime areas because scared this scared that, there will be 1 who will dare to be the challenger to invest and be a first mover and who knows maybe he will be amply rewarded? It's like there're 100,000 enterpreneurs who failed. But it doesn't mean one shouldn't take risk or pursue his beliefs.

[devilplate]

can put a stop loss for short sell?

[gfoo]

malaysia property is f-up lah. i sold my iskandar house in feb, up to today still haven't smell cash in bank.

things have changed a lot in the past few years.

Dun even dare to drive in myself. whenever i go in sign papers, i will hire a fit chauffeur to drive me in.

[rattydrama]

So people are busy hunting for properties or pissed by the new rules which resulted in unwilling buyer and unwilling seller.
Or simply don’t want to look at it to cool down the urge of buying more units at the wrong time?:confused:


wah, only 4 threads are active in the past 9 hours. quiet siah. :ashamed1: more data for richwang to analyse. :)

[richwang]

wow, you are a short. you are daredevil. I never short. when I see some bad stocks, I just not buy. but I have never shorted stocks. there is no telling how much you may lose.

Agreed. Short is not for retail to play. So I've bought Put Warrents instead. At least I know that's the money I plan to loss.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. Just saw another thread talking about STI to go up to 4000 by year-end. I guess I need to be careful...

[rattydrama]

congrats! BTW, is it near MRT?


fully totally agree!
and that is exactly what i have done ...

just bought a unit that i totally love ...
its what i need exactly .. a refuge and shelter from the outside chaos
a place where i can indulge in being who i am .. ie a people's person.

i cannot ever stand living in a MM, cos i love inviting friends over for sunday brunches, dinner parties and even overseas friends to shack up in the guest room.

and i love having a little herb garden, so a balcony is very important but not too big until it overtakes my indoor space :)

i am so glad after searching for months i finally found my dream home!
:)

[stalingrad]

Agreed. Short is not for retail to play. So I've bought Put Warrents instead. At least I know that's the money I plan to loss.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. Just saw another thread talking about STI to go up to 4000 by year-end. I guess I need to be careful...

I have never made any money buying warrants. Never. I have lost a total of 10k buying warrants. a market may be dropping, but it may not drop before your warrants expire and your warrants become worthless.

[vboy]

no its not
5 busstops away from nearest mrt

but then, being near mrt station is not in my top 3 important priorities for this purchase...

altho if this ppty is solely for investment purpose, then that factor would be very important ..




congrats! BTW, is it near MRT?

[jwong71]

malaysia property is f-up lah. i sold my iskandar house in feb, up to today still haven't smell cash in bank.

things have changed a lot in the past few years.

Dun even dare to drive in myself. whenever i go in sign papers, i will hire a fit chauffeur to drive me in.
Parents Jb condo sitting on paper loses ard 100k ringit. It's fully paid so no More loses on the interests incurred. Maintainance fees loses too
Rented out for awhile and realise evrything was cleared out. The wash sink was not spared. Malaysia property. Don't even wanna to consider.

[DC33_2008]

Just give them some pocket money.
So were you raped? :D

[rattydrama]

do you mind sharing what are yr top 3s? I am hunting for 1 and sometimes abit distracted with my heart and soul.:mad:

I am having this voice - I am buying for own stay but sometimes priorities
in life changes and if I want to sell later it could not more difficult if it is not near MRT.



no its not
5 busstops away from nearest mrt

but then, being near mrt station is not in my top 3 important priorities for this purchase...

altho if this ppty is solely for investment purpose, then that factor would be very important ..

[devilplate]

Parents Jb condo sitting on paper loses ard 100k ringit. It's fully paid so no More loses on the interests incurred. Maintainance fees loses too
Rented out for awhile and realise evrything was cleared out. The wash sink was not spared. Malaysia property. Don't even wanna to consider.

yes....everything!!!mind u... they even strip ur pipes/wires.....everything !!!:scared-4:

i only heard ppl make $$ investing in KLCC condos

[devilplate]

do you mind sharing what are yr top 3s? I am hunting for 1 and sometimes abit distracted with my heart and soul.:mad:

i tot buying for self stay is good to follow ur heart and soul???

[Wild Falcon]

Follow your heart lah. If you don't need MRT station, then don't buy for MRT station's sake. My house also doesn't have MRT station. There's no point paying a premium for MRT station when u won't use it anyway. Might as well buy a place where your heart desires?


do you mind sharing what are yr top 3s? I am hunting for 1 and sometimes abit distracted with my heart and soul.:mad:

I am having this voice - I am buying for own stay but sometimes priorities
in life changes and if I want to sell later it could not more difficult if it is not near MRT.

[teddybear]

I presume you have no kids and parents living with you? Otherwise living near MRT is definitely very important! Can your kids drive to school? Take the bloody ever super crowded and damn slow and long waiting time bus takes how long? Do your parents both own cars to drive? Taking buses are dangerous for own people (nowsadays driven by FT and buses so crowded, old people no place to grip and not even ready bus already sped off!). Old people if fall then... (sad)...


Follow your heart lah. If you don't need MRT station, then don't buy for MRT station's sake. My house also doesn't have MRT station. There's no point paying a premium for MRT station when u won't use it anyway. Might as well buy a place where your heart desires?

[JuzMe]

For those that bought MMs, good luck.

For the rest esp those still looking to buy, two words of advice: rent & travel. Don't get suckered in by agents and their sweet words, or brochures and their pretty pictures, or tvcs showing a pretty pan-asian sipping champagne over ang mo kio mrt.

Agree with your statement! Few agents posting and trying to talk up the market - "buy lah" "market good lah" "PR coming with lots of $$$ to pay premium" "Easy sell one" :scared-4:

So true what you said about stupid ads showing "affluent" actors sipping champagne in their MM or over-priced condos next to HDB heartlands.

Still a newbie and learning a lot from posts in this forum. Better wait and see instead of jumping into the market.

[vboy]

thats what i mean by your priorities are unique to you .. and nobody else

if you have elders and kids living with you, then space and public transport very important to you. so if you cant cough up the extra premium to buy big private residence near mrt, then u have to go buy hdb near mrt loh ... u have to sacrifice something.

while this may not be 100% good investment choice in terms of financial sense .. look at it as good investments for your kids and family :)

i always remember this adage:
"you can have anything you want, BUT you cant have everything"




I presume you have no kids and parents living with you? Otherwise living near MRT is definitely very important! Can your kids drive to school? Take the bloody ever super crowded and damn slow and long waiting time bus takes how long? Do your parents both own cars to drive? Taking buses are dangerous for own people (nowsadays driven by FT and buses so crowded, old people no place to grip and not even ready bus already sped off!). Old people if fall then... (sad)...

[rattydrama]

When I asked these questions, I do have my priorities in mind just that nearer to MRT is a basic need as one can rent out easily should we upgrade/downgrade in future.

Actually I don’t need MRT; neither do my parents nor kids as Taxi can do the job if I am not available. But it is hard to part away MRT if we are looking at future capital appreciation. Agree?

Since this is a forum, I just want to have a feel how do you guys feel when comes to buying property for own stay.

I came across a friend who is a property investor and she said this to me. “I have FH and LH property. I made the most from LH property which is within walking distance to MRT. I did not make as much for FH property. When the market was down, for 6 months could not rent out even though it is at good district with good sea view and the bank interest eroded my profits.”

Pls feel free to debate.

[rattydrama]

i tot buying for self stay is good to follow ur heart and soul???

I prefer to be rational. Feel lousy to be a poor man seating on negative equity.:scared-1:

[DC33_2008]

Far East Organization and Smartloans.sg (http://www.smartloans.sg/) cordially invite you to a talk on the above at Centro Residences Sales Gallery this Friday. Date & Time: Friday, 1 October, 6.30pm
Venue: Ang Mo Kio Ave 8 (opposite Grandeur 8)

Dinner will be served.Please click here (http://www.fareast.com.sg/rsvp) to RSVP for the event.

[vboy]

it boils down to needs versus wants ...
i also want to be near mrt as much as possible, as it is definitely a plus.

but what do you have to sacrifice for that?
extra space?
higher monthly instalments? (that can be used for holidays for eg)
quieter living environment?




When I asked these questions, I do have my priorities in mind just that nearer to MRT is a basic need as one can rent out easily should we upgrade/downgrade in future.

Actually I don’t need MRT; neither do my parents nor kids as Taxi can do the job if I am not available. But it is hard to part away MRT if we are looking at future capital appreciation. Agree?

Since this is a forum, I just want to have a feel how do you guys feel when comes to buying property for own stay.

I came across a friend who is a property investor and she said this to me. “I have FH and LH property. I made the most from LH property which is within walking distance to MRT. I did not make as much for FH property. When the market was down, for 6 months could not rent out even though it is at good district with good sea view and the bank interest eroded my profits.”

Pls feel free to debate.

[teddybear]

1) Your kids can take taxis to and back from school everyday?

2) FH but not near to MRT that is why cannot easily rent out and hence fantastic sea view also useless? :p


When I asked these questions, I do have my priorities in mind just that nearer to MRT is a basic need as one can rent out easily should we upgrade/downgrade in future.

Actually I don’t need MRT; neither do my parents nor kids as Taxi can do the job if I am not available. But it is hard to part away MRT if we are looking at future capital appreciation. Agree?

Since this is a forum, I just want to have a feel how do you guys feel when comes to buying property for own stay.

I came across a friend who is a property investor and she said this to me. “I have FH and LH property. I made the most from LH property which is within walking distance to MRT. I did not make as much for FH property. When the market was down, for 6 months could not rent out even though it is at good district with good sea view and the bank interest eroded my profits.”

Pls feel free to debate.

[rattydrama]

For schooling issue, either take school bus or walk to school lor… palpable sense of relief? …Earlier post meant “commuting for leisure”.:D


MRT still important for rental. :(



1) Your kids can take taxis to and back from school everyday?

2) FH but not near to MRT that is why cannot easily rent out and hence fantastic sea view also useless? :p

[devilplate]

I came across a friend who is a property investor and she said this to me. “I have FH and LH property. I made the most from LH property which is within walking distance to MRT. I did not make as much for FH property. When the market was down, for 6 months could not rent out even though it is at good district with good sea view and the bank interest eroded my profits.”

Pls feel free to debate.

really cannot rent out for 6mths? i manage to rent out one suburbs FH not near MRT 2bedder quite easily last yr feb within 2wks leh...no view somemore ....but of coz, rental drop from 2.5 to 2.2k:o

[vboy]

i think the problem of the unit is not that its far from mrt
its bcos it has seaview which means that the purchase price was high
and hence the rental asking amount correspondingly high too...

one of the plus point of buying a ppty not near mrt is that it should be cheaper... unless of cos like this case, its got seaview


really cannot rent out for 6mths? i manage to rent out one suburbs FH not near MRT 2bedder quite easily last yr feb within 2wks leh...no view somemore ....but of coz, rental drop from 2.5 to 2.2k:o

[teddybear]

Your kids in Secondary school, JCs/Polys, University still can take school bus mah? :confused:


For schooling issue, either take school bus or walk to school lor… palpable sense of relief? …Earlier post meant “commuting for leisure”.:D


MRT still important for rental. :(

[teddybear]

Cheaper but more difficult to rent out even if rental is cheaper. For rental or own stay, near MRT is still better. (If you want the convenience, tenants want that even more too if they have the choice!).


i think the problem of the unit is not that its far from mrt
its bcos it has seaview which means that the purchase price was high
and hence the rental asking amount correspondingly high too...

one of the plus point of buying a ppty not near mrt is that it should be cheaper... unless of cos like this case, its got seaview

[cashrich]

Cheaper but more difficult to rent out even if rental is cheaper. For rental or own stay, near MRT is still better. (If you want the convenience, tenants want that even more too if they have the choice!).

This one near MRT but price still dropped. It's getting too dark these days. Dark days ahead.

138 Race Course Road #03-03 Freehold
$650 646 $420k 05 May 10

138 Race Course Road #05-04 Freehold
$950 474 $450k 16 Nov 09

[devilplate]

This one near MRT but price still dropped. It's getting too dark these days. Dark days ahead.

138 Race Course Road #03-03 Freehold
$650 646 $420k 05 May 10

138 Race Course Road #05-04 Freehold
$950 474 $450k 16 Nov 09

interesting caveat....but it was done in May before the cooling measures:beats-me-man:

[gfoo]

My advice and two cents for non-investors - treat your home as an expense. If you are upgrading from a HDB, compare what you will be paying with what you have been paying. Are the additionals - amenities, 'prestige factor', location, etc etc worth that extra moolah each month?

Do not base your decision from brochureware or the words of agents. Experience living in that condo yourself. If you can't, then purposely make as many 'viewings' as possible to see how people live there. hang around even after the viewing, go at different times in the day, different times of the week.

Unless you are very savvy, well traveled and know what to expect - i find it silly that people will sign off on one of the biggest expense of their lives on a mockup and pretty brochures.

I give an example: Quartz vs new flats at buangkok - 50m apart. I have stayed at both for extended poker and tkss sessions with relatives. At $550psf vs $300psf - that $250psf differential was justifiable for the upgrade. At $900psf vs $400psf, that $500psf differential seems less justifiable. The only difference is swimming pool, courts, and some other facilities. The neighbours are the same, location is the same, amenities the same, and the same people hang clothes on balconies. In such an instance, save the money, stick with HDB, use the money for a good club membership.


Again let me stress. Your primary home should always be considered as an expense - do not always think of capital gain etc etc. Model for the worst possible outcome. Money hard to earn, dun waste it.

[azeoprop]

This one near MRT but price still dropped. It's getting too dark these days. Dark days ahead.

138 Race Course Road #03-03 Freehold
$650 646 $420k 05 May 10

138 Race Course Road #05-04 Freehold
$950 474 $450k 16 Nov 09

I thought this place is the brown color building where the ground floor is Muthu's curry? Dunno what kind of people stay inside. Not a fantastic place to stay if u ask me. :scared-3:

[peterng8]

interesting caveat....but it was done in May before the cooling measures:beats-me-man:

is that a condo with full facilities? or just some apartment with paraponei favourite and no facilities as near little india? near MRT (mins to MRT) or within 5 min MRT...

just interested to know more....

take a look at meville park :2cents:

[rattydrama]

really cannot rent out for 6mths? i manage to rent out one suburbs FH not near MRT 2bedder quite easily last yr feb within 2wks leh...no view somemore ....but of coz, rental drop from 2.5 to 2.2k:o

she sold in March 2009 thinking that property will drop further. So I guess you can count the date in Sept 08 to probably Feb 09. But lucky she bet on caspian... should be really hard during that time.

[rattydrama]

Your kids in Secondary school, JCs/Polys, University still can take school bus mah? :confused:

not an issue to take public transport when they are older.. I guess once they are bigger, they would prefer to venture out of their neighborhood.

[rattydrama]

Cheaper but more difficult to rent out even if rental is cheaper. For rental or own stay, near MRT is still better. (If you want the convenience, tenants want that even more too if they have the choice!).

agree. :cheers1: thats why when buying big ticket item, heart and soul and being rational/realistic is always putting us/me at cross-road... :doh: even when affordability is within my/your means and is manageable.

[cashrich]

is that a condo with full facilities? or just some apartment with paraponei favourite and no facilities as near little india? near MRT (mins to MRT) or within 5 min MRT...

just interested to know more....

take a look at meville park :2cents:

What's with meville park? Prices are indeed still lower than most. Give DBR a harder time?

Details on the cheap pricing. It's an apartment, like Viva Vista or Cosmos etc. All FH and within walking distance to MRT (distance might vary but H and lack of facilities are common). Can check the map if you want to know the exact distance.

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/project-listings/race-course-138-1069

Mickey Mouse. M O U S E.... Maybe Other Units Sell Expansive. Then got chance.

[vboy]

if ppty is for investment purposes, then have to compare apples with apples

1.) for units far from mrt, one no seaview and one with seaview, the former probably cheaper in terms of rental so easier to rent out

2.) for MM units, one near mrt and one far from mrt, definitely the former has more chance of being rented out (no matter how small it is).





Cheaper but more difficult to rent out even if rental is cheaper. For rental or own stay, near MRT is still better. (If you want the convenience, tenants want that even more too if they have the choice!).

[mcmlxxvi]

I thought this place is the brown color building where the ground floor is Muthu's curry? Dunno what kind of people stay inside. Not a fantastic place to stay if u ask me. :scared-3:

you are absolutety correct. if you been these you will know why it deserves all its 650psf

[nav14]

is that a condo with full facilities? or just some apartment with paraponei favourite and no facilities as near little india? near MRT (mins to MRT) or within 5 min MRT...

just interested to know more....

take a look at meville park :2cents:

What is "paraponei"? Is this the equivalent of "cheenaqui"

[Geylang OKT]

para as in paralegal?

ponei as in indian?

paraponei as in not full fledged indian or half baked indian? :D :D :D

oops.... sorry I am not being politically correct here :o

[teddybear]

For the same size unit, we still need to compare:
1) Walking distance (<= 5mins) to MRT or not?
2) Got good view or not?
3) Got good facing and no west sun or not?
4) Got amenities nearby within walking distance or not?
5) Easy to drive out/in and short distance & time to workplace, kids' schools, etc or not?
6) Got enough facilities or not?
7) Condo estate too crowded or not?
8) Park lots enough or not? (esp those with more than 1 car)
9) Got good fengshui or not? (for people particular about these)
10) ??? (please add)


if ppty is for investment purposes, then have to compare apples with apples

1.) for units far from mrt, one no seaview and one with seaview, the former probably cheaper in terms of rental so easier to rent out

2.) for MM units, one near mrt and one far from mrt, definitely the former has more chance of being rented out (no matter how small it is).

[Geylang OKT]

My advice and two cents for non-investors - treat your home as an expense. If you are upgrading from a HDB, compare what you will be paying with what you have been paying. Are the additionals - amenities, 'prestige factor', location, etc etc worth that extra moolah each month?

Do not base your decision from brochureware or the words of agents. Experience living in that condo yourself. If you can't, then purposely make as many 'viewings' as possible to see how people live there. hang around even after the viewing, go at different times in the day, different times of the week.

Unless you are very savvy, well traveled and know what to expect - i find it silly that people will sign off on one of the biggest expense of their lives on a mockup and pretty brochures.

I give an example: Quartz vs new flats at buangkok - 50m apart. I have stayed at both for extended poker and tkss sessions with relatives. At $550psf vs $300psf - that $250psf differential was justifiable for the upgrade. At $900psf vs $400psf, that $500psf differential seems less justifiable. The only difference is swimming pool, courts, and some other facilities. The neighbours are the same, location is the same, amenities the same, and the same people hang clothes on balconies. In such an instance, save the money, stick with HDB, use the money for a good club membership.


Again let me stress. Your primary home should always be considered as an expense - do not always think of capital gain etc etc. Model for the worst possible outcome. Money hard to earn, dun waste it.

Please name some good non-golf club memberships :D

Singapore Swimming Club

Chinese Swimming Club

?? :D

[Geylang OKT]

For the same size unit, we still need to compare:
1) Walking distance (<= 5mins) to MRT or not?
2) Got good view or not?
3) Got good facing and no west sun or not?
4) Got amenities nearby within walking distance or not?
5) Easy to drive out/in and short distance & time to workplace, kids' schools, etc or not?
6) Got enough facilities or not?
7) Condo estate too crowded or not?
8) Park lots enough or not? (esp those with more than 1 car)
9) Got good fengshui or not? (for people particular about these)
10) ??? (please add)

Got good management agent and good management council or not? Very important also :D :D :D

[rattydrama]

12) Got alot of HDB upgraders or not?
13) Got barrier free access or not?
14) Got sunlight to the kitchen or not?
15) Got alot of InDXXXs or not? (oops!)
16) Got near Geylang or not?
17) Got FH or not?
18) Got lift straight to your unit or not?
19) Got generator down at your unit or not?
20) Got near cross-junction/ busy main road / expressway or not?
21) Got people throw things at your patio or not?

Quote:
Originally Posted by teddybear
For the same size unit, we still need to compare:
1) Walking distance (<= 5mins) to MRT or not?
2) Got good view or not?
3) Got good facing and no west sun or not?
4) Got amenities nearby within walking distance or not?
5) Easy to drive out/in and short distance & time to workplace, kids' schools, etc or not?
6) Got enough facilities or not?
7) Condo estate too crowded or not?
8) Park lots enough or not? (esp those with more than 1 car)
9) Got good fengshui or not? (for people particular about these)
10) ??? (please add)


Got good management agent and good management council or not? Very important also :D :D :D

[devilplate]

no wonder it takes few yrs for some to find a 'perfect home'

[teddybear]

That is a true statement for me - Reminds me to add 1 last factor:
Selling price cheap (or at least reasonable) or not? :p

Frequently the 'ideal home' sellers are asking for sky high prices and so after finding the 'ideal home' still have to see whether willing/bear to pay for it at much above market transacted price or not. :banghead:


no wonder it takes few yrs for some to find a 'perfect home'

[Geylang OKT]

Prices are crashing soon :D

[teddybear]

I hope so too but unfortunately 'ideal homes' (with good fengshui), owners won't sell cheap (because owners got good fengshui blessing, rich and no need to sell cheap)! :banghead:


Prices are crashing soon :D

[sfwoo]

I hope so too but unfortunately 'ideal homes' (with good fengshui), owners won't sell cheap (because owners got good fengshui blessing, rich and no need to sell cheap)! :banghead:

HAHAHA! I agree...