View Full Version : More measures to cool market
The Government on Thursday announced more measures to cool the property market.
The holding period for imposition of Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) will be increased from the current three years to four years.
The SSD rates will be raised to 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent of consideration for residential properties which are bought on or after January 14, 2011, and are sold in the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively;
The government will also lower the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit to 50 per cent on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) for property purchasers who are not individuals.
And for property purchasers who are individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home, the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS will be lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent.
The measures will take effect on January 14, 2011.
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 17:17
The Government on Thursday announced more measures to cool the property market.
The holding period for imposition of Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) will be increased from the current three years to four years.
The SSD rates will be raised to 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent of consideration for residential properties which are bought on or after January 14, 2011, and are sold in the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively;
The government will also lower the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit to 50 per cent on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) for property purchasers who are not individuals.
And for property purchasers who are individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home, the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS will be lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent.
The measures will take effect on January 14, 2011.
U beat me to it!
devilplate
13-01-11, 17:50
The Government on Thursday announced more measures to cool the property market.
The holding period for imposition of Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) will be increased from the current three years to four years.
The SSD rates will be raised to 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent of consideration for residential properties which are bought on or after January 14, 2011, and are sold in the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively;
The government will also lower the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit to 50 per cent on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) for property purchasers who are not individuals.
And for property purchasers who are individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home, the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS will be lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent.
The measures will take effect on January 14, 2011.
looks like 50% LTV for non individuals will put Enbloc to a STOP....
60% LTV....kind of expected...
the SSD machiam like capital gain tax!.....if market downturn how....those who sold at a loss still kena 4-16% SSD!!! wow....i tink SSD more jialat den cap gain tax leh....:scared-3:
now really small is beauitful liao......sianz.....more MMs to come:sleep:
That's it ... end of the bull run liao :doh:
devilplate
13-01-11, 17:54
That's it ... end of the bull run liao :doh:
small units within 1mil will still run.....:sleep:
hi kingkong,
1 time only,,,,this capital gain tax like Australia right ?
How like that ?
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 17:59
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2011/pr11-07.html
devilplate
13-01-11, 18:04
the SSD really HIONG hor....
if downturn nvr surface within next 2-3yrs...den there will be very few firesale in future liao....
who will sell their ppty within first 3 yrs....4th yr at 4% to me also ALOT!
subsale will be dead....agts earn lesser....lol
devilplate
13-01-11, 18:12
BUY MORE STOCKS!!!!!!!!!!!:D :cheers1:
COLLECT ANGBAOS:D
Forced holding for 3-4y is definitely too risky from an investment perspective ... what if US 10y bond yield went to 8% 2y later :scared-4: Anything can happen in 4 years !!!
Pity those who bought > 1kpsf for Jurong Lake District story ... caught at the peak already
devilplate
13-01-11, 18:15
Forced holding for 3-4y is definitely too risky from an investment perspective ... what if US 10y bond yield went to 8% 2y later :scared-4: Anything can happen in 4 years !!!
3YRS FIXED RATE MIGHT GO UP BY TMR!:2cents:
Regulators
13-01-11, 18:17
Time to vote pap out liao
devilplate
13-01-11, 18:19
Time to vote pap out liao
tot tats wat the minority wanted to see? hehe.....
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 18:24
That's it ... end of the bull run liao :doh:
Yes...... No more casino story Liao.casino start to lose money soon..,, haha beware double whammy..,, buy now and if stock crash. U r gone.
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 18:28
Forced holding for 3-4y is definitely too risky from an investment perspective ... what if US 10y bond yield went to 8% 2y later :scared-4: Anything can happen in 4 years !!!
Pity those who bought > 1kpsf for Jurong Lake District story ... caught at the peak already
Haha really? Got jurong peak story to tell mah. Actually it's only for properties bought after 14 Jan...... 1 4 means one dead gents in 2011, they have to hold 5 yrs and sell nett. Maybe lose money. Poor Peter ng.., run away Liao.
rattydrama
13-01-11, 18:29
16% SSD machiam capital gain tax that is what I am worried about all these while. Kill the market straight away. Investor die liao.
rattydrama
13-01-11, 18:31
3YRS FIXED RATE MIGHT GO UP BY TMR!:2cents:
Sure Bo? Too much liquidity on 14 Jan onwards no one borrowing ....liao
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 18:32
16% SSD machiam capital gain tax that is what I am worried about all these while. Kill the market straight away. Investor die liao.
U should be alright. I worry for devil late. Late in running, selling and dancing,
rattydrama
13-01-11, 18:33
My 1000 post here. What a day!!!!
rattydrama
13-01-11, 18:35
U should be alright. I worry for devil late. Late in running, selling and dancing,
Don't think need to. His buying price damn low take rental also olso sleep damn well. He read and preach rich dad poor dad.... an lah ....
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 18:40
congrats! :)
My 1000 post here. What a day!!!!
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 18:42
16% is not even a tax, it is a FEE! its like paying 16% more in commission to the govt like that! :scared-1:
16% SSD machiam capital gain tax that is what I am worried about all these while. Kill the market straight away. Investor die liao.
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 18:44
oh yeah! i have been so busy lately. :)
BUY MORE STOCKS!!!!!!!!!!!:D :cheers1:
COLLECT ANGBAOS:D
Don't think need to. His buying price damn low take rental also olso sleep damn well. He read and preach rich dad poor dad.... an lah ....
even if buy low,and wf new measures coming out.. affecting the properties prices to go low as well.? indirectly impacting on the rental too..? that shld weed out investors or speculators,in the MM sector.. isnt it..??
*i believe measures willl be coming out,that y i didnt buy the cheapsale units i viewed these few days,and wont want get myself stuck in such situation and go down together..
New measures to cool Singapore's property market
Thu, Jan 13, 2011
AsiaOne
SINGAPORE - The Singapore government today announced new measures to maintain a stable and sustainable property market, which will take effect by tomorrow, January 14.
From tomorrow, the holding period for the imposition of Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) will be increased from the current three years to four years.
Currently, for residential properties bought on or after 30 August 2010, SSD is imposed on the sale of such properties within three years of purchase. This followed the introduction of SSD for residential properties bought on or after 20 February 2010.
The SSD rates will also be increased sharply so as to provide a strong disincentive for investors looking to make
short term gains. The impact of the SSD is especially significant as it is payable regardless whether the property is eventually sold at a gain or loss.
For residential properties bought on or after 14 January 2011, the SSD rates to be levied on the full consideration will be increased to as follows:
SSD at 16 per cent (higher than up to 3 per cent currently), if the property is sold in the first year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for 1 year or less from its purchase date.
SSD at 12 per cent (higher than up to 2 per cent currently), if the property is sold in the second year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 1 year and up to 2 years.
SSD at 8 per cent (higher than up to 1 per cent currently), if the property is sold in the third year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 2 years and up to 3 years.
SSD at 4 per cent (no SSD currently), if the property is sold in the fourth year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 3 years and up to 4 years.
Currently, the SSD rates are levied at the same rate as buyer's stamp duty, i.e. 1 per cent for the first $180,000, 2 per cent for the next $180,000 and 3% on the balance. The SSD rates are tiered according to the duration of the holding period, i.e. the seller pays the full SSD rate if the residential property is sold in the first year of purchase; 2/3 the full SSD rate if the sale is in the second year; 1/3 the full SSD rate if in the third year.
Changes to Loan-To-Value limit
The Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS for property purchasers who are not individuals will be lowered to 50 per cent. This includes corporations, trusts and collective investment schemes, among others, as well as to joint property purchases by an individual and a purchaser who is not an individual.
Meanwhile, the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new housing purchase will be lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent.
However, borrowers who can show evidence that they have sold their existing properties will not be subject to the lower LTV limit when they buy a new property. Where the existing property is a private property, he can show a signed Sale & Purchase (S&P) agreement with the IRAS certificate showing that stamp duty has been paid on it. Where the existing property is a HDB flat, he can show HDB's approval letter to sell the flat, that HDB will issue within 2 weeks of the First Appointment. These borrowers will still be able to borrow at an 80 per cent LTV from financial institutions.
Borrowers without any outstanding housing loans continue to have a LTV cap of 80 per cent.
These rules apply to housing loans granted by financial institutions for private residential properties, Executive Condominiums, HUDC flats and HDB flats (including DBSS flats).
Loans granted by HDB for HDB flats (including DBSS flats) will still have a LTV cap of 90 per cent.
The Government will continue to monitor the property market closely and take further steps to promote a stable and sustainable property market if necessary.
the writing was on the wall, i was just wondering what took singapore so long to catch up with HK. and someone was telling me singapore is in a different circumstance than HK so the policies will be different. it doesn't look so different after today's announcement.
and by the way, i heard from my HK friends that transaction is picking up again. so i think singapore property will quieten down for another quarter till Apr and May before some activity comes back as parents start to hunt for places near schools of their choices.
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 18:47
can i conclude that if there is any firesale in the next 2 or 3 years, look out for those bought before 14th jan 2011? :)
the SSD really HIONG hor....
if downturn nvr surface within next 2-3yrs...den there will be very few firesale in future liao....
who will sell their ppty within first 3 yrs....4th yr at 4% to me also ALOT!
subsale will be dead....agts earn lesser....lol
Regulators
13-01-11, 18:48
Should be majority of people who think that way, just their kiasi mentality and fear that their livelihood gets rocked that inhibit them from standing up against govt in full force
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 18:50
thursday the 13TH. 32,000 property agent's unlucky day.
Haha really? Got jurong peak story to tell mah. Actually it's only for properties bought after 14 Jan...... 1 4 means one dead gents in 2011, they have to hold 5 yrs and sell nett. Maybe lose money. Poor Peter ng.., run away Liao.
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 19:01
election is possibly in apr/may mah. ;)
the writing was on the wall, i was just wondering what took singapore so long to catch up with HK. and someone was telling me singapore is in a different circumstance than HK so the policies will be different. it doesn't look so different after today's announcement.
and by the way, i heard from my HK friends that transaction is picking up again. so i think singapore property will quieten down for another quarter till Apr and May before some activity comes back as parents start to hunt for places near schools of their choices.
those buyers holding their options the just bought in the last few days, planning for a 70% loan will have to rethink their plan.
It's time they split stats for new launch and resale, then they will see the overheating is in new launch! So shouldn't they just impose measures to target cooling of new launch, like for example SSD 4 years start from TOP date & not date of S&P? Or they won't because they want to sell more land at high price? Shouldn't geniune investors or for own stay buy completed properties than those under construction which they can't rent out or live in immediately? They just don't get it or ??? :confused:
New measures to cool Singapore's property market
Thu, Jan 13, 2011
AsiaOne
SINGAPORE - The Singapore government today announced new measures to maintain a stable and sustainable property market, which will take effect by tomorrow, January 14.
From tomorrow, the holding period for the imposition of Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) will be increased from the current three years to four years.
Currently, for residential properties bought on or after 30 August 2010, SSD is imposed on the sale of such properties within three years of purchase. This followed the introduction of SSD for residential properties bought on or after 20 February 2010.
The SSD rates will also be increased sharply so as to provide a strong disincentive for investors looking to make
short term gains. The impact of the SSD is especially significant as it is payable regardless whether the property is eventually sold at a gain or loss.
For residential properties bought on or after 14 January 2011, the SSD rates to be levied on the full consideration will be increased to as follows:
SSD at 16 per cent (higher than up to 3 per cent currently), if the property is sold in the first year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for 1 year or less from its purchase date.
SSD at 12 per cent (higher than up to 2 per cent currently), if the property is sold in the second year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 1 year and up to 2 years.
SSD at 8 per cent (higher than up to 1 per cent currently), if the property is sold in the third year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 2 years and up to 3 years.
SSD at 4 per cent (no SSD currently), if the property is sold in the fourth year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 3 years and up to 4 years.
Currently, the SSD rates are levied at the same rate as buyer's stamp duty, i.e. 1 per cent for the first $180,000, 2 per cent for the next $180,000 and 3% on the balance. The SSD rates are tiered according to the duration of the holding period, i.e. the seller pays the full SSD rate if the residential property is sold in the first year of purchase; 2/3 the full SSD rate if the sale is in the second year; 1/3 the full SSD rate if in the third year.
Changes to Loan-To-Value limit
The Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS for property purchasers who are not individuals will be lowered to 50 per cent. This includes corporations, trusts and collective investment schemes, among others, as well as to joint property purchases by an individual and a purchaser who is not an individual.
Meanwhile, the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new housing purchase will be lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent.
However, borrowers who can show evidence that they have sold their existing properties will not be subject to the lower LTV limit when they buy a new property. Where the existing property is a private property, he can show a signed Sale & Purchase (S&P) agreement with the IRAS certificate showing that stamp duty has been paid on it. Where the existing property is a HDB flat, he can show HDB's approval letter to sell the flat, that HDB will issue within 2 weeks of the First Appointment. These borrowers will still be able to borrow at an 80 per cent LTV from financial institutions.
Borrowers without any outstanding housing loans continue to have a LTV cap of 80 per cent.
These rules apply to housing loans granted by financial institutions for private residential properties, Executive Condominiums, HUDC flats and HDB flats (including DBSS flats).
Loans granted by HDB for HDB flats (including DBSS flats) will still have a LTV cap of 90 per cent.
The Government will continue to monitor the property market closely and take further steps to promote a stable and sustainable property market if necessary.
rattydrama
13-01-11, 19:07
My colleague just sold her apt near kemangan mrt on 27 dec not sure buyer will backout? Record high leh but below 1m...
It's time they split stats for new launch and resale, then they will see the overheating is in new launch! So shouldn't they just impose measures to target cooling of new launch, like for example SSD 4 years start from TOP date & not date of S&P? Or they won't because they want to sell more land at high price? Shouldn't geniune investors or for own stay buy completed properties than those under construction which they can't rent out or live in immediately? They just don't get it or ??? :confused:
its a matter of time,measures coming in again.
It's time they split stats for new launch and resale, then they will see the overheating is in new launch! So shouldn't they just impose measures to target cooling of new launch, like for example SSD 4 years start from TOP date & not date of S&P? Or they won't because they want to sell more land at high price? Shouldn't geniune investors or for own stay buy completed properties than those under construction which they can't rent out or live in immediately? They just don't get it or ??? :confused:
teddy, if they didn't do this, where can you buy cheap subsale right? :cheers1:
Let the first guy take the hit then, like new cars, drive out of showroom, discount immediately. I've long maintained that it's irrational for new properties to be trading at more than 30% premium over neighbouring resale. 5% of the value can allow the owner to do a full reno + ID. And brand new doesn't even come with ID.
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 19:09
in a way, seems like it hits the new sales less if anything, once again! sigh.
It's time they split stats for new launch and resale, then they will see the overheating is in new launch! So shouldn't they just impose measures to target cooling of new launch, like for example SSD 4 years start from TOP date & not date of S&P? Or they won't because they want to sell more land at high price? Shouldn't geniune investors or for own stay buy completed properties than those under construction which they can't rent out or live in immediately? They just don't get it or ??? :confused:
looks like 50% LTV for non individuals will put Enbloc to a STOP....
60% LTV....kind of expected...
the SSD machiam like capital gain tax!.....if market downturn how....those who sold at a loss still kena 4-16% SSD!!! wow....i tink SSD more jialat den cap gain tax leh....:scared-3:
now really small is beauitful liao......sianz.....more MMs to come:sleep:
with the high SSD, i think MMs will die 1st, investors buying cos of affordabiliy and hoping to flip for profits within certain years. who really buy for rental yields, instead of capital gains.? unless u have millions and millions sitting in the bank,which you do not have any idea wad to do with it. then shld hoot the properties for rental yield
moneyspinner
13-01-11, 19:13
its a matter of time,measures coming in again.
At the end of the day, they will make sure that they kill the property market for another umpty years!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Message is clear. Don't touch the property market if you have a short term mentality. Play other products if you want to.:)
Stock Market huat AH! Excess money diverted...
rattydrama
13-01-11, 19:35
Hdb resale price still high, never lower down fast enough as expected by government prior to erection. Not fast enough so need 16%. SSD kill the market short term.
devilplate
13-01-11, 19:43
U should be alright. I worry for devil late. Late in running, selling and dancing,
Hehe tks for ur concern :)
devilplate
13-01-11, 19:44
Expecting waterghosts to resurface again.... Hehe
Is that mean husband and wife or friend-friend jointly buying an unit will be given 50% loan only from tomorrow? Anyone can clear my doubt pls? :beats-me-man:
rattydrama
13-01-11, 20:04
Is that mean husband and wife or friend-friend jointly buying an unit will be given 50% loan only from tomorrow? Anyone can clear my doubt pls? :beats-me-man:
If second ppty then 60%
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 20:05
Overseas now.. is this for real? Heng ar, I got rid of one investment...
I think those medium-ticket ones (e.g. 1.5 million and above) in trouble. 40% of 1.5 million = 600k. 600k cash for such high risk property investment and high SSD is NOT WORTH IT anymore.
Overseas now.. is this for real? Heng ar, I got rid of one investment...
congrats to those who arent greedy.. properties are not necessary for mid-long term view anymore. its more like knowing when to enter and when to exit the market.
If second ppty then 60%
1st property lei? still 80% or chg to 50% ?
Will there be firesale soon????? Have been waiting till neck long long already!!!!
rattydrama
13-01-11, 20:16
Pro government, pro first timer buyer, pro new comer, pro cash rich, pro absolute quantum, pro OCR
Luckily or unluckily I sold one unit in Dec.... now prices are set to plunge. :scared-3: Demand for units will be totally wiped out unless is really first timer for own stay only...even then people will give second thoughts about buying now. :scared-5:
More chances for starbuys though, and MM units will be even more popular. Especially those 2 bedrooms MM units. :beats-me-man:
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 20:20
Pro owner-occupier...
Pro government, pro first timer buyer, pro new comer, pro cash rich, pro absolute quantum, pro OCR
Forced holding for 3-4y is definitely too risky from an investment perspective ... what if US 10y bond yield went to 8% 2y later :scared-4: Anything can happen in 4 years !!!
Pity those who bought > 1kpsf for Jurong Lake District story ... caught at the peak already
This is exactly the type of speculators the govern is trying curb... those that flip in 4 years. doesn't affect long term investors. :tsk-tsk:
heng ah.... already got my property :)
These measures seem to target the pte properties and property funds.
Let's say a developer is selling a MM about $600k, now 40% downpayment is $240k. Larger units will need more. There are few people with so much cash upfront and the 1st buyer will not be able to flip easily.
Here're my predictions:
Most likely the new launches planned this month will be delayed due to potential buyers pulling out. Speculators who bought last year will also be hit when the units TOP in 2013 because it is difficult for the next buyer to flip. Reasonably priced units should be available from Q3 this year :)
1st property lei? still 80% or chg to 50% ?
read la - 1st property still 80%
devilplate
13-01-11, 20:25
Hdb resale price still high, never lower down fast enough as expected by government prior to erection. Not fast enough so need 16%. SSD kill the market short term.
Hdb not in the pic.... Solely pte ppty tis round....
These new cooling measures really cooling, new launches pricing will be hit & likely to affect overall prices (OCR or CCR slide 1st ?). Sales Vol plunge.
*Sorry ah, just wanted some inputs & not trying to start an argument between Bear & Sta :o. Anyway all on the same ppty boat.
Those no intention to hold, it may trigger pre-mature selling, hopefully there are enough buyers to soak up these mini firesales, otherwise whole mkt might dampen. Hunting season starts for DevilP.:D
The 40% downpay already kill off buying momentum, if didn't buy then how get penalise by SSD? Own stay not affected.
Will PO come out from his hibernation & speak? heehee
Hdb not in the pic.... Solely pte ppty tis round....
next is HDB lor, never say give heads up :cool:
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 20:30
Got, ec will also kanna. Hdb not considered hit is because 5 yr mop anyway, if 100 percent ssd also not affected.
its a matter of time,measures coming in again.
if measures come in again, means that prices are still going up.... yeah!!!!:D
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 20:32
next is HDB lor, never say give heads up :cool:
Next rule hdb cannot own pte and pte cannot own hdb. U see lor
This is exactly the type of speculators the govern is trying curb... those that flip in 4 years. doesn't affect long term investors. :tsk-tsk:
heng ah.... already got my property :)
few quarters later, u realise similar units are selling even lower.
only such news benefit to those who buying for long term,and at lower price than current
Hdb not in the pic.... Solely pte ppty tis round....
better hope pte prices don't come down too close to hdb if hdb valuation still creeping up.
This 4yr SSD for resale units is almost like HDB/DBSS/EC 5yr MOP.:doh:
if measures come in again, means that prices are still going up.... yeah!!!!:D
tell me something we dont know..
if a unit asking 700k, val at 770k and trans at 750k..
Its mean, noone biting the bait. Be it prices up or down
with the high SSD, i think MMs will die 1st, investors buying cos of affordabiliy and hoping to flip for profits within certain years. who really buy for rental yields, instead of capital gains.? unless u have millions and millions sitting in the bank,which you do not have any idea wad to do with it. then shld hoot the properties for rental yield
don't think MMs is going to die first. Those who wanted to buy larger units have to settle for smaller units. Don't agree that investors only buy MMs to flip, flippers buy across the board, not just MMs....
I buy for rental yield as well as capital gains and I don't have millions in the bank.
moneyspinner
13-01-11, 20:38
better hope pte prices don't come down too close to hdb if hdb valuation still creeping up.
This 4yr SSD for resale units is almost like HDB/DBSS/EC 5yr MOP.:doh:
Good analogy. Just that for pte property you can still buy/sell if you pay the dues to the govt.. Those in need of money quick will not buy property now since it will locked up for 4 years unless you don't mind paying the dues!:scared-2:
stalingrad
13-01-11, 20:39
don't think MMs is going to die first. Those who wanted to buy larger units have to settle for smaller units. Don't agree that investors only buy MMs to flip, flippers buy across the board, not just MMs....
I buy for rental yield as well as capital gains and I don't have millions in the bank.
haha, MM units are bought mostly by speculators, and they will all rush for the exit now, including yourself.
disagree with me? just wait and see.
don't think MMs is going to die first. Those who wanted to buy larger units have to settle for smaller units. Don't agree that investors only buy MMs to flip, flippers buy across the board, not just MMs....
I buy for rental yield as well as capital gains and I don't have millions in the bank.
small time flippers can only afford MM,
oh yes u buy for rental yield to cover ur mortgages and dispose once u see a capital gain,isnt it.? or u going keep for the next 10yrs for rental yield.??
if the SSD going eat into ur profits,MM profits going turn into zero profits due to is small size. who will wanna play this game.?
tell me something we dont know..
if a unit asking 700k, val at 770k and trans at 750k..
Its mean, noone biting the bait. Be it prices up or down
I am saying that the government will not introduce new measures if prices have stabilized. That's the intent of the measure. New measures will only be introduced if prices continue to rise. The government doesn't want the market to drop, they just wants it to stabilize.
moneyspinner
13-01-11, 20:41
haha, MM units are bought mostly by speculators, and they will all rush for the exit now, including yourself.
disagree with me? just wait and see.
STAMPEDE.......... FIRESALE for MMs! If this happens within the next few months, you would have proven your point!:)
those can't find tenants confirm can't :sleep: .
MBT better pray no suicide cases due to these measures. :2cents:
stalingrad
13-01-11, 20:42
I am saying that the government will not introduce new measures if prices have stabilized. That's the intent of the measure. New measures will only be introduced if prices continue to rise. The government doesn't want the market to drop, they just wants it to stabilize.
if no cooling is achieved, then government will make it a crime to flip within 10 years. if you do, your ass will be in jail. that would surely kill the market. haha.
Think the message is this: If you are not rich, don't touch property market. But if you are rich and can hold, you will sure become even much more richer investing in property when the paper money you are holding drop quickly in value (like toilet papers being printed like no tomorrow)!
Morale of the story? The rich just get richer more easily with less competing buyers!
At the end of the day, they will make sure that they kill the property market for another umpty years!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Message is clear. Don't touch the property market if you have a short term mentality. Play other products if you want to.:)
small time flippers can only afford MM,
oh yes u buy for rental yield to cover ur mortgages and dispose once u see a capital gain,isnt it.? or u going keep for the next 10yrs for rental yield.??
if the SSD going eat into ur profits,MM profits going turn into zero profits due to is small size. who will wanna play this game.?
I believe in holding property for the long term. why not keep for 10yrs? So near term fluctuations of the market doesn't make me lose sleep...., as long as prices go up in the long term, I'm happy...:)
If prices do drop... I'll buy....:D
stalingrad
13-01-11, 20:44
those can't find tenants confirm can't :sleep: .
MBT better pray no suicide cases due to these measures. :2cents:
why would MBT care? he is paid based only how cool the market is.
stalingrad
13-01-11, 20:46
I believe in holding property for the long term. why not keep for 10yrs? So near term fluctuations of the market doesn't make me lose sleep...., as long as prices go up in the long term, I'm happy...:)
If prices do drop... I'll buy....:D
wow, you are the type that MBT cannot touch. you are so cash rich.
Why you worry? People who buy properties worth $3m or more sure have lots of cash (especially those who buy for own stay). You should worry about those OCR properties selling at $1000 psf or more! To buy a $1.5m OCR properties need to pay $600k cash downpayment! Wow! How many living in OCR can afford to fork out this amount of CASH easily? :banghead: This sure sounds like the sounding horn for the slow dead for OCR properties! Anyway, developers already said they shifting to sell high-end (still holding these) while most of them had already quickly get rid of the mass market properties after winning bid of the land sold by Govt. :p
Overseas now.. is this for real? Heng ar, I got rid of one investment...
I think those medium-ticket ones (e.g. 1.5 million and above) in trouble. 40% of 1.5 million = 600k. 600k cash for such high risk property investment and high SSD is NOT WORTH IT anymore.
moneyspinner
13-01-11, 20:48
Think the message is this: If you are not rich, don't touch property market. But if you are rich and can hold, you will sure become even much more richer investing in property when the paper money you are holding drop quickly in value (like toilet papers being printed like no tomorrow)!
Morale of the story? The rich just get richer more easily with less competing buyers!
But how to become richer when there is a dearth of demand and nobody to push the prices up. Property prices will only go up because there is demand and this comes from investors and speculators. Speculators accelerate the price increase. Killing them will kill the market. There will be no buyer unless you meet a cash rich investor! Holding property will become a long long long term play until the next cycle!:scared-5:
wow, you are the type that MBT cannot touch. you are so cash rich.
It's called staying in the market, but prepared for the worst....:D
why would MBT care? he is paid based only how cool the market is.
haha...hot money coming, MBT says 'Freeze!!!' He is Spore's Iceman :p
stalingrad
13-01-11, 20:50
This just in:
US jobless claims jumped unexpectedly last week to their highest level since October, suggesting the labor market is still in a rut. Separately, producer prices rose more than expected.
wow, the US economy may hit another road bump. and now singapore just announce another bevy of cooling measures. why would anyone buy properties now?
I believe in holding property for the long term. why not keep for 10yrs? So near term fluctuations of the market doesn't make me lose sleep...., as long as prices go up in the long term, I'm happy...:)
If prices do drop... I'll buy....:D
make sure u can loan the 2nd,3rd or 4th properties,and no margin call from banks. especially when u do not have millions in bank:D
stalingrad
13-01-11, 20:52
But how to become richer when there is a dearth of demand and nobody to push the prices up. Property prices will only go up because there is demand and this comes from investors and speculators. Speculators accelerate the price increase. Killing them will kill the market. There will be no buyer unless you meet a cash rich investor! Holding property will become a long long long term play until the next cycle!:scared-5:
agreed. there are already 10,000 ccr properties that cannot be sold. the new measures will kill the market for CCR properties
Property is always about cycle. If you can hold 1 cycle, you sure become richer. Every cycle, the high is higher than previous high. The low is higher than the previous low. Can hold long long sure can make money. If you can't hold long long (say at least 5-6 years), don't play property. Can only watch others make profit from property.
But how to become richer when there is a dearth of demand and nobody to push the prices up. Property prices will only go up because there is demand and this comes from investors and speculators. Speculators accelerate the price increase. Killing them will kill the market. There will be no buyer unless you meet a cash rich investor! Holding property will become a long long long term play until the next cycle!:scared-5:
Property is always about cycle. If you can hold 1 cycle, you sure become richer. Every cycle, the high is higher than previous high. The low is higher than the previous low. Can hold long long sure can make money. If you can't hold long long (say at least 5-6 years), don't play property. Can only watch others make profit from property.
property is abt buying at the right price right time,and holding for the next cycle. i dont see buyers in 1997,able to breakeven though is a cycle higher now. in short,buy with eyes wide open.
not just thinking of a cycle can sell higher than now..
make sure u can loan the 2nd,3rd or 4th properties,and no margin call from banks. especially when u do not have millions in bank:D
don't need millions, just need enough for installments for a couple of years...:D
Whenever recession just ended and economy picks up, there will always be tons of buyers so much so that Govt has to introduce cooling measures sooner or later, just like now. No buyers now? Never mind, wait for next cycle and tons will appear, and willing to buy at high and high price (definitely higher than the peak of last cycle). :D
But how to become richer when there is a dearth of demand and nobody to push the prices up. Property prices will only go up because there is demand and this comes from investors and speculators. Speculators accelerate the price increase. Killing them will kill the market. There will be no buyer unless you meet a cash rich investor! Holding property will become a long long long term play until the next cycle!:scared-5:
There are 2,000,000 potential OCR properties waiting to be sold! That won't kill the OCR property market? :banghead:
agreed. there are already 10,000 ccr properties that cannot be sold. the new measures will kill the market for CCR properties
Why you didn't mention that overall US unemployment has dropped to 9.7% from 9.8%? Why you didn't mention that US Fed Reserve Biege book economic report says US economy slowly recovering? Why you didn't mention US DJIA has just hit multi-year high because of these good news? Sentiment has never been so high since this news has been announced! Stock market indices have been climbing non-stop for past 2 weeks!
This just in:
US jobless claims jumped unexpectedly last week to their highest level since October, suggesting the labor market is still in a rut. Separately, producer prices rose more than expected.
wow, the US economy may hit another road bump. and now singapore just announce another bevy of cooling measures. why would anyone buy properties now?
property is abt buying at the right price right time,and holding for the next cycle. i dont see buyers in 1997,able to breakeven though is a cycle higher now. in short,buy with eyes wide open.
not just thinking of a cycle can sell higher than now..
teddy and I believe in investing in property for the long term. Don't think any of us is smart enough to pick a property at the lowest point and sell at the highest point. You will be a genius if you can do that. If you believe that property will rise higher peak to peak in the long term, than your investment strategy will be different. Luxury CCR prices has not breached the 1997 levels, but it's going to, don't know when, but its going to happen.:)
possibility that rentals will go up, especially for the larger sized units exceeding $1M that now have become less 'affordable'
In my opinion, before end of this year most likely break 2007 peak levels for CCR. :cheers1: (I thought CCR 2007 peak already break 1997 peak? It is the OCR that has not broken 1997 peak until now. That is why CCR has better long-term capital appreciation value!).
teddy and I believe in investing in property for the long term. Don't think any of us is smart enough to pick a property at the lowest point and sell at the highest point. You will be a genius if you can do that. If you believe that property will rise higher peak to peak in the long term, than your investment strategy will be different. Luxury CCR prices has not breached the 1997 levels, but it's going to, don't know when, but its going to happen.:)
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 21:12
What warped logic is that? Rentals will go up or not will depend on the supply coming into the market and demand from foreigners. Most Singaporeans/PRs buy because that's the only way to access our CPF monies.
possibility that rentals will go up, especially for the larger sized units exceeding $1M that now have become less 'affordable'
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 21:12
my feel is that the hdb market had cooled more in comparison to the private market in Q4. maybe that's why now whack private.
next is HDB lor, never say give heads up :cool:
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 21:12
Omg.... 60 percent ltv leh...., I hope u r right. 50 percent for....
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 21:13
how ironic. everything happening on same day. hahaha.
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_17235245BF4E554C482578170032130D/$file/OxleyLoftAtHollandPR.pdf?openelement
In my opinion, before end of this year most likely break 2007 peak levels for CCR. :cheers1: (I thought CCR 2007 peak already break 1997 peak? It is the OCR that has not broken 1997 peak until now. That is why CCR has better long-term capital appreciation value!).
yah hor... got years mixed up...:doh:
how ironic. everything happening on same day. hahaha.
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_17235245BF4E554C482578170032130D/$file/OxleyLoftAtHollandPR.pdf?openelement
let's see how many of the option cheques will bounce tomorrow....boing.boing...:rolleyes:
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 21:19
2 million properties? Did you get your math wrong?
OCR comprise say 20 districts. CCR comprise 6 districts. The question we always have to bear in mind is, is 15,000 units across 20 districts better or worse than 10,000 units across only 6 tiny districts? Which region has greater oversupply? 15,000 units across wide expanse of 600 sq km OR 10,000 units across teeny 100 sq km?
That's why I say, all these experts have to analyse over-supply in relation to the area covered. 10,000 units over a small area is worse and more cramped than 15,000 units over a large expanse of land. And there will always be people who like to stay in quieter and less crowded areas, i.e. there will always be demand, even in ulu places like Sembawang.
There are 2,000,000 potential OCR properties waiting to be sold! That won't kill the OCR property market? :banghead:
What warped logic is that? Rentals will go up or not will depend on the supply coming into the market and demand from foreigners. Most Singaporeans/PRs buy because that's the only way to access our CPF monies.
Supply of foreigners is there and has been growing. I am assuming that there will be less people who can now invest in larger units (so there will be less large units for rental in the market) and those that can and plonk down 40% for the larger units will expect a higher return on their investments i.e. higher rental.
Does this sound logical?
moneyspinner
13-01-11, 21:20
how ironic. everything happening on same day. hahaha.
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_17235245BF4E554C482578170032130D/$file/OxleyLoftAtHollandPR.pdf?openelement
I think this is the last batch of suckers who bought directly from developers without knowing the measures in the late afternoon!:tongue3:
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 21:24
No. Because capital values can fall if rental yields and future upside growth potential is not there - that is a real possibility. Just because you buy an over-valued property doesn't mean that u can find someone to rent at exorbitant rate.
Supply of foreigners is there and has been growing. I am assuming that there will be less people who can now invest in larger units (so there will be less large units for rental in the market) and those that can and plonk down 40% for the larger units will expect a higher return on their investments i.e. higher rental.
Does this sound logical?
This time cooling measure is mainly made because last year aug cooling measure couldn`t kill the overheated OCR market.
Whether you have cash of 100k more from 300k or not for 1M property is absolutely matter for OCR buyer only. (LTV 70% changed to 60%).
Anyway, for big project normally takes 3-4year to build, that means when you buy from launch, when TOP comes it already 3-4years taken.:rolleyes:
better hope pte prices don't come down too close to hdb if hdb valuation still creeping up.
This 4yr SSD for resale units is almost like HDB/DBSS/EC 5yr MOP.:doh:
Similar but..
> SSD is targeted on sub-sales.. & latest 4yr SSD is to clamp down on the growing bubble (SSD starts from OTP/S&P rite? still have 3-4yrs of building process rite?)
> HDB/DBSS/EC 5yr MOP meant to promote higher home ownership for the greater public (MOP starts from key collection rite?)
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 21:28
let's see how many of the option cheques will bounce tomorrow....boing.boing...:rolleyes:
Many many, bouncing bunnies.. Practicing for yr of rabbit.... Hop hop
No. Because capital values can fall if rental yields and future upside growth potential is not there - that is a real possibility. Just because you buy an over-valued property doesn't mean that u can find someone to rent at exorbitant rate.
likewise for prices can fall if there's lesser speculator or investor VS homestayers, cheonging up the properties.
and when prices fall, rental fall too.. Once that hit those buyers that bgt at overpaid price with pathetic rental,to cover mortgages. slolwy it lead to firesales.
Supply of foreigners is there and has been growing. I am assuming that there will be less people who can now invest in larger units (so there will be less large units for rental in the market) and those that can and plonk down 40% for the larger units will expect a higher return on their investments i.e. higher rental.
Does this sound logical?
Developers can rent out unsold units too. If rental moves even higher, good 2011 HUAT .
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 21:33
One thing is for sure. The foreign hot money from Hong Kong and China is not gonna come anymore. These rules are obvious - it's to tell the foreigners who have no stake in Singapore to get lost and stop frying our property.
With LTV of only 60%, the incentive to invest in higher value properties to "maximise" the multiplier effect of leverage is greatly reduced. I know of people who like to buy high value properties so that they can borrow more and multiply their returns. Such incentive to maximise leverage is greatly reduced.
Geylang OKT
13-01-11, 21:35
Developers can rent out unsold units too. If rental moves even higher, good 2011 HUAT .
More rental units coming into the market means more supply.. and you know the equation about supply and demand... meaning lower rental rates lah :tongue3: :D :D
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 21:35
actually, i m curious and this oxley project is an excellent case study. they sold all the units in 2 hours today. does that mean that they are not hit by the measures?
my interpretation of the footnotes on the announcement is this:
1) the 60% LTV applies for OTP granted from tomorrow onwards so they can still apply for 70% loan.
2) the SSD rule is based on EXERCISED option after today. So they will be hit by the 5 year rule unless they exercise today as well?
can someone tell me whether my interpretation is correct or not?
let's see how many of the option cheques will bounce tomorrow....boing.boing...:rolleyes:
One thing is for sure. The foreign hot money from Hong Kong and China is not gonna come anymore. These rules are obvious - it's to tell the foreigners who have no stake in Singapore to get lost and stop frying our property.
With LTV of only 60%, the incentive to invest in higher value properties to "maximise" the multiplier effect of leverage is greatly reduced. I know of people who like to buy high value properties so that they can borrow more and multiply their returns. Such incentive to maximise leverage is greatly reduced.
But if that Foreign buyers are 1st time buyer for Singapore property, then they still get 80% loan.:rolleyes:
No. Because capital values can fall if rental yields and future upside growth potential is not there - that is a real possibility. Just because you buy an over-valued property doesn't mean that u can find someone to rent at exorbitant rate.
Ok - for the sake of discussion...FTs are still coming in. Singapore is still projected to grow 4-5% this year. Rentals could maintain or increase, no?
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1104505/1/.html
everything has to do with election ...
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 21:38
60% is not the only rule leh. You didn't read those SSDs? Obviously to discourage investors. Locals might have incentive to invest in Singapore because this is our home. But foreigners? They just go to whichever country or asset class that gives them the best returns. And looking at those prohibitive transaction costs (SSD etc), who will invest here?
But if that Foreign buyers are 1st time buyer for Singapore property, then they still get 80% loan.:rolleyes:
actually, i m curious and this oxley project is an excellent case study. they sold all the units in 2 hours today. does that mean that they are not hit by the measures?
my interpretation of the footnotes on the announcement is this:
1) the 60% LTV applies for OTP granted from tomorrow onwards so they can still apply for 70% loan.
2) the SSD rule is based on EXERCISED option after today. So they will be hit by the 5 year rule unless they exercise today as well?
can someone tell me whether my interpretation is correct or not?
Is it possible to exercise the option in 1 day, correction, in a few hours?:beats-me-man:
The measure will scare some speculators away... if they, like some of the forumers here, think that prices will fall.
One thing is for sure. The foreign hot money from Hong Kong and China is not gonna come anymore. These rules are obvious - it's to tell the foreigners who have no stake in Singapore to get lost and stop frying our property.
With LTV of only 60%, the incentive to invest in higher value properties to "maximise" the multiplier effect of leverage is greatly reduced. I know of people who like to buy high value properties so that they can borrow more and multiply their returns. Such incentive to maximise leverage is greatly reduced.
only the fools believe in the high takeup rate is due to the increase of foreigns staying in sgp, instead of them frying up the prices and cashing out profits when HK and china are prevent in properties frying.
time will come and we will see % speculator VS homestayer.
Geylang OKT
13-01-11, 21:41
Prices will fall. That's a no brainer. The question to ask is by how much in the coming months. 20%, 30%? :D
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 21:42
hi kingkong,
1 time only,,,,this capital gain tax like Australia right ?
How like that ?
It's not capital gain tax lah. It's a punishment fine if u sell with 4 yrs. Get it?
60% is not the only rule leh. You didn't read those SSDs? Obviously to discourage investors. Locals might have incentive to invest in Singapore because this is our home. But foreigners? They just go to whichever country or asset class that gives them the best returns. And looking at those prohibitive transaction costs (SSD etc), who will invest here?
correction: SSD discourage Speculators, SSD will not discourage long term investors...
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 21:44
Prices will fall. That's a no brainer. The question to ask is by how much in the coming months. 20%, 30%? :D
Not really tat much, max 10 percent. just tat new sales slow. People buy for stay only. Invest in ssd? Wat a joke.
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 21:46
Is it possible to exercise the option in 1 day, correction, in a few hours?:beats-me-man:
The measure will scare some speculators away... if they, like some of the forumers here, think that prices will fall.
Yes, technically yes
moneyspinner
13-01-11, 21:47
Equities is definitely a better market for short to medium term players. Property market good only for LONG term players.:)
60% is not the only rule leh. You didn't read those SSDs? Obviously to discourage investors. Locals might have incentive to invest in Singapore because this is our home. But foreigners? They just go to whichever country or asset class that gives them the best returns. And looking at those prohibitive transaction costs (SSD etc), who will invest here?
Know what you mean, but from my feeling, this time cooling measure will majorly affect HDB or OCR market.
Normally CCR market prices are driven high by foreing money, now especially from China, but for Chinese buyers, even their mainland China or HK also got afftected with legal measures, so this singapore measure is not so strong factor for them, unless Capital gain tax.
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 21:48
Every investor will consider the transaction costs, liquidity, optionality and flexibility of his investments. Even if I intend to invest in something for 4 years, I still like to have the option to sell it within say 3 years without much penalty if anything happens. In short, it becomes a less attractive asset class with lots of restrictions and penalties. These measure will have impact. Let's face it and not live in denial. And I think these are good measures - Singapore property market is dominated by investors which is not healthy. At the end of the day, property is meant to be lived in and enjoyed :)
correction: SSD discourage Speculators, SSD will not discourage long term investors...
how ironic. everything happening on same day. hahaha.
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_17235245BF4E554C482578170032130D/$file/OxleyLoftAtHollandPR.pdf?openelement
How coincidence!.... i remember their Viva Vista was launch juz before Aug 2010 measures... their launch agents surely have to put in double efforts:D
Prices will fall. That's a no brainer. The question to ask is by how much in the coming months. 20%, 30%? :D
errr... the measures last year ... prices didn't fall leh... so don't be so sure
first round of measures...again there were predictions that prices will drop....prices went up. Second round of measures....again there were predictions that prices will drop....prices creeped up. What's the difference for this round of measures? Prices will still go up...or a short knee jerk stablisation of prices...but prices will still creep up albeit at a much slower pace.
Think the message is this: If you are not rich, don't touch property market. But if you are rich and can hold, you will sure become even much more richer investing in property when the paper money you are holding drop quickly in value (like toilet papers being printed like no tomorrow)!
Morale of the story? The rich just get richer more easily with less competing buyers!
ya lor totally agree :spliff:
Geylang OKT
13-01-11, 21:50
errr... the measures last year ... prices didn't fall leh... so don't be so sure
This is the 4th round. Sure to have impact in this latest round. Else the govt will just keep on shelling the property market. :D
Sure to dampen even the most optimistic property buyer this time round :hell-hath-no-fury: :scared-1: :doh:
Every investor will consider the transaction costs, liquidity, optionality and flexibility of his investments. Even if I intend to invest in something for 4 years, I still like to have the option to sell it within say 3 years without much penalty if anything happens. In short, it becomes a less attractive asset class with lots of restrictions and penalties. These measure will have impact. Let's face it and not live in denial. And I think these are good measures - Singapore property market is dominated by investors which is not healthy. At the end of the day, property is meant to be lived in and enjoyed :)
fair enough... agreed that prices going up too quickly is unhealthy, not good for the property market in the long run... Though not against property investors, but flippers...:)
Regulators
13-01-11, 21:52
i think the latest measures aimed at people who own more than one property. As for foreigners, many can afford to pay for property in full so i do not think it is an issue for them
One thing is for sure. The foreign hot money from Hong Kong and China is not gonna come anymore. These rules are obvious - it's to tell the foreigners who have no stake in Singapore to get lost and stop frying our property.
With LTV of only 60%, the incentive to invest in higher value properties to "maximise" the multiplier effect of leverage is greatly reduced. I know of people who like to buy high value properties so that they can borrow more and multiply their returns. Such incentive to maximise leverage is greatly reduced.
Think your brain cannot analyze well and you need the analysts (which you don't trust and hence cannot see the light), so let me make it simple for you to see:
- CCR 6 small districts, small piece of land. By virtue of it being small, what is left is that 10,000 units and no more supply (unless you enbloc those old properties). That is it!
- CR 20 big districts, don't know how many selling now but Govt can still has sufficient land to sell to build another 2,000,000 units! Wow! Govt sure has a lot of gun-power if they want to shoot the price down by release all the land at the same time? Can they do this for CCR? Nah! (because they have very little supply in CCR!). If CCR can drop like that then OCR would have fallen off the cliff! :cheers1:
2 million properties? Did you get your math wrong?
OCR comprise say 20 districts. CCR comprise 6 districts. The question we always have to bear in mind is, is 15,000 units across 20 districts better or worse than 10,000 units across only 6 tiny districts? Which region has greater oversupply? 15,000 units across wide expanse of 600 sq km OR 10,000 units across teeny 100 sq km?
That's why I say, all these experts have to analyse over-supply in relation to the area covered. 10,000 units over a small area is worse and more cramped than 15,000 units over a large expanse of land. And there will always be people who like to stay in quieter and less crowded areas, i.e. there will always be demand, even in ulu places like Sembawang.
Wild Falcon
13-01-11, 21:55
SSD is 100x worse than capital gains tax. Capital gains tax is only imposed if you make profits and it is a % of the PROFITS. SSD hits the ENTIRE INVESTMENT.
With the leverage factor reduced, prices will converge even more. Remember a person who puts up 100k more can buy a 500k (5x) more expensive condo with 80% leverage. In short 100k creates 500k asset for a person to play with so-to-speak. Now with the LTV reduced to 60%, the 100k only brings this guy additional 250k asset. It's a different ball game. The incentive to leverage to maximise return is significantly reduced.
In short, a person prepared to invest 100k more used to cause a 500k price divergence (80% LTV). Now its only 250k divergence.
I don't want to predict the OCR or the CCR - both may fall. But I think the highest hit are those (i) mainly investors/specuvestors (ii) quantum between 1.5 - 2.5 million (iii) no real growth story other than "china men coming to town" because Chinamen got other option.
Know what you mean, but from my feeling, this time cooling measure will majorly affect HDB or OCR market.
Normally CCR market prices are driven high by foreing money, now especially from China, but for Chinese buyers, even their mainland China or HK also got afftected with legal measures, so this singapore measure is not so strong factor for them, unless Capital gain tax.
Regulators
13-01-11, 21:57
prices how to fall? en bloc prices and GLS all record high so how property prices can come down? MBT really knn, if he don't want developers to sell property high, why the hell would he even allow them to en bloc or buy land from govt to develop? If developers sell too high and buyers can't afford, developers would have common sense to adjust prices, don't need govt to teach them, right?
errr... the measures last year ... prices didn't fall leh... so don't be so sure
In my opinion, hot money will still come in but into stock market which is more scary then ppty because of the time need to dispose is fairly fast compare to ppty. I dont think the govt or any govt is capable to stop any of the $ to flow in but seems like Sg govt is trying to gain from the whole scenario.
1st sell as many land as possible during peak to developer.(MAKE $)
2nd Sell and build more HDB at price close to private (MAKE$)
3rd make the buyer pay higher SSD (MAKE $)
4th i think the govt going to issue more Sg bond then increase the rate.
I think the only way to curb the ppty bubble to to sell HDB at huge discount...see who still wan to buy private. but HDB lose out...so proposal BAN.
Ai yah, talk so much also useless, wait for 3 months and see the property transactions and we will know.
My guess is that it will hit speculators/investors buying/owning OCR properties >$1m worth and those selling >$1000 psf. OCR buyers just don't have so much cash to buy and take over the babies from these speculators/investors!
SSD is 100x worse than capital gains tax. Capital gains tax is only imposed if you make profits and it is a % of the PROFITS. SSD hits the ENTIRE INVESTMENT.
With the leverage factor reduced, prices will converge even more. Remember a person who puts up 100k more can buy a 500k (5x) more expensive condo with 80% leverage. In short 100k creates 500k asset for a person to play with so-to-speak. Now with the LTV reduced to 60%, the 100k only brings this guy additional 250k asset. It's a different ball game. The incentive to leverage to maximise return is significantly reduced.
I don't want to predict the OCR or the CCR - both may fall. But I think the highest hit are those (i) mainly investors/specuvestors (ii) quantum between 1.5 - 2.5 million (iii) no real growth story other than "china men coming to town" because Chinamen got other option.
One thing for sure is property stock prices will fall tmr when market opens. If u got the guts, short sell and make a handsome profit in one day. This new cooling measure will affect more of the new launches than resale cos 1st time buyer or upgraders cannot afford to wait 3 yrs for hse to be built while having money stucked (20% to 40%). This will help resale units tat r completed.
More rental units coming into the market means more supply.. and you know the equation about supply and demand... meaning lower rental rates lah :tongue3: :D :D
I replying spikey that developers can rent out unsold units & fighting for same pool of tenants. What's the demand still unknown yet, if the floodgate open wider for higher inflow then water will rise lor. :p
MBFC & the new mrt lines need ppl to fill up right? Confirm demand for ur meimei will increase, better supply more to cool down the demand. hehheh
One thing for sure is property stock prices will fall tmr when market opens. If u got the guts, short sell and make a handsome profit in one day. This new cooling measure will affect more of the new launches than resale cos 1st time buyer or upgraders cannot afford to wait 3 yrs for hse to be built while having money stucked (20% to 40%). This will help resale units tat r completed.
chain link effect.. be it if is new,resale or haunted..
Regulators
13-01-11, 22:04
i don't think you have the balls to shortsell 1000 lots of capitaland tmr.
One thing for sure is property stock prices will fall tmr when market opens. If u got the guts, short sell and make a handsome profit in one day. This new cooling measure will affect more of the new launches than resale cos 1st time buyer or upgraders cannot afford to wait 3 yrs for hse to be built while having money stucked (20% to 40%). This will help resale units tat r completed.
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 22:08
i think exercise in 1 day is possible. just how willing r the buyers after they know of the news.
Is it possible to exercise the option in 1 day, correction, in a few hours?:beats-me-man:
The measure will scare some speculators away... if they, like some of the forumers here, think that prices will fall.
i don't think you have the balls to shortsell 1000 lots of capitaland tmr.
eeeeiiii...i smell opportunity here...if we all gang up and short sell Capland tomorrow ard 9.00am till 9.20am period together there might be a chance to make $ ard 9.45am. Target all of us sell till it drop approxi 5% then let the panic work it ways to 7-8% then we Buy back ard 9.45am.
Anyone?Onz?
i think exercise in 1 day is possible. just how willing r the buyers after they know of the news.
very simple , just call bank to terminate cheque. $$ wont go thro right ?
SSD is 100x worse than capital gains tax. Capital gains tax is only imposed if you make profits and it is a % of the PROFITS. SSD hits the ENTIRE INVESTMENT.
With the leverage factor reduced, prices will converge even more. Remember a person who puts up 100k more can buy a 500k (5x) more expensive condo with 80% leverage. In short 100k creates 500k asset for a person to play with so-to-speak. Now with the LTV reduced to 60%, the 100k only brings this guy additional 250k asset. It's a different ball game. The incentive to leverage to maximise return is significantly reduced.
In short, a person prepared to invest 100k more used to cause a 500k price divergence (80% LTV). Now its only 250k divergence.
I don't want to predict the OCR or the CCR - both may fall. But I think the highest hit are those (i) mainly investors/specuvestors (ii) quantum between 1.5 - 2.5 million (iii) no real growth story other than "china men coming to town" because Chinamen got other option.
That`s why I wrote before exactly, those who care more about LTV 10% difference are more found in group of HDB or OCR buyers.
They generally got small balls.:rolleyes:
long-term investors don`t really care about SSD, because anyway it takes 3-4 year to TOP for new projects.
For many other country case, no matter how strong measure comes, market may slow down a bit for few months, but it will still go up if there are other favorable factors out there, like now in S'pore.
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 22:13
MM craze leh. you could be surprised. they may even be exercising now so that they don't get hit by the rules rather than be concerned about prices will fall or not. :ashamed1: (btw, i m not a MM supporter hee).
very simple , just call bank to terminate cheque. $$ wont go thro right ?
kingkong1984
13-01-11, 22:16
Yes, the lucky few who escaped. No one to fight over them for at least a year
:cheers6:
looks like 50% LTV for non individuals will put Enbloc to a STOP....
60% LTV....kind of expected...
the SSD machiam like capital gain tax!.....if market downturn how....those who sold at a loss still kena 4-16% SSD!!! wow....i tink SSD more jialat den cap gain tax leh....:scared-3:
now really small is beauitful liao......sianz.....more MMs to come:sleep:
should not apply to land sales otherwise, no one will bid for Govt land as well. Loan to developer is a construction loan and not housing loan
Very sad evening for me.
I just rang up my agent and told her that I am cancelling the purchase of a studio unit at The Clift that I had just bought last week. 1% deposit already paid last week. Supposed to exercise the option on the coming Monday. I have been shopping for the last one 1 year and finally just decided last week to realise my dream as a property owner.
I was not worried about the LTV (cos I am a first time buyer) or even the SSD (cos I can actually exercise my option tonight at the lawyer's). But I decided to forgo my 1% deposit due to the following reasons:
1) I bought a studio unit in Shenton area. So very clear cut, it's for investment/speculation reasons only. My next buyer (say... even 4 years later) is likely to be an investor as well, cos it is extremely unlikely for a genuine long-stayer to move his whole family into a studio unit in Shenton. So, will the next buyer be willing to also hold for 4 years? Unlikely. Well, he might - but only if the price is really cheap.
2) This cooling measure was the most dreconian ever. Remember when Shanghai imposed the 15% SD 2 months ago, property sales volume plunged by 80% in the next 2 months?
3) Prices are very likely to drop, or at best stagnate, after these new cooling measures. I am now going to target at least a 2-bedder in RCR (my budget cannot get a 2-bedder in prime area anymore). That will give me a larger investment window because the next buyer can very likely be a long-stayer rather than a speculator.
4) If the market turns during the older times, I can still afford the 3% SSD. But if market should turn within the next year, wah piang how to find 16% to pay iras, or pay for the margin call?
5) To begin with, I bought the unit at an "ok" price only, not that it was a fantastic price. It was actually a sub-sub-sale unit, right before T.O.P.
6) I think with the CPF i have on hand, can invest back in to equities, since the equity market is going well now.
7) The rest of the cash on hand can buy London property, or KLCC, or even some good buys in the States. Places where cooling measures are not in operation (well, at least not yet).
Haii... the new round of cooling measure really kill speculators la.. Well, at least it had an effect on me. :(
first round of measures...again there were predictions that prices will drop....prices went up. Second round of measures....again there were predictions that prices will drop....prices creeped up. What's the difference for this round of measures? Prices will still go up...or a short knee jerk stablisation of prices...but prices will still creep up albeit at a much slower pace.
You are darn right on this - price will up at least 20-30% more to cover the 16% ssd! Huat ah!
I have a different view to this:
1) I bought a studio unit in Shenton area. So very clear cut, it's for investment/speculation reasons only. My next buyer (say... even 4 years later) is likely to be an investor as well, cos it is extremely unlikely for a genuine long-stayer to move his whole family into a studio unit in Shenton. So, will the next buyer be willing to also hold for 4 years? Unlikely. Well, he might - but only if the price is really cheap.
- There is a type of buyer for every type of property. If Singapore continues to do well in economy, this Shenton area unit will still be attractive to some foreign expats who can only purchase something at this budget. The location will always be a plus factor.
2) This cooling measure was the most dreconian ever. Remember when Shanghai imposed the 15% SD 2 months ago, property sales volume plunged by 80% in the next 2 months?
- sales volume can plunge, but price may not plunge. When nobody is buying and nobody is selling, the price will either stagnate or go up. But this could be a situation where nobody wants to sell, but people may still want to buy.
3) Prices are very likely to drop, or at best stagnate, after these new cooling measures. I am now going to target at least a 2-bedder in RCR (my budget cannot get a 2-bedder in prime area anymore). That will give me a larger investment window because the next buyer can very likely be a long-stayer rather than a speculator.
- If i have a 2 bedder in RCR, i wont sell it to you now because I can still hold onto the property with the current interest rates. Don't you see? I have already bought it, so I am not affected by this and all the more I won't want to sell now because I will be affected by the policies if I want to buy something now.
6) I think with the CPF i have on hand, can invest back in to equities, since the equity market is going well now.
- That is also not very safe! Bubbles move from one sector to another.
7) The rest of the cash on hand can buy London property, or KLCC, or even some good buys in the States. Places where cooling measures are not in operation (well, at least not yet).
- Will happen sooner or later, but this current policy is good in keeping the market increasing in price steadily. Market will crash only if the sellers sell suddenly (and altogether).
I don't pity you sunboy77. It is flippers like you that have caused the property market to rise so quickly. :simmering:
Very sad evening for me.
I just rang up my agent and told her that I am cancelling the purchase of a studio unit at The Clift that I had just bought last week. 1% deposit already paid last week. Supposed to exercise the option on the coming Monday. I have been shopping for the last one 1 year and finally just decided last week to realise my dream as a property owner.
I was not worried about the LTV (cos I am a first time buyer) or even the SSD (cos I can actually exercise my option tonight at the lawyer's). But I decided to forgo my 1% deposit due to the following reasons:
1) I bought a studio unit in Shenton area. So very clear cut, it's for investment/speculation reasons only. My next buyer (say... even 4 years later) is likely to be an investor as well, cos it is extremely unlikely for a genuine long-stayer to move his whole family into a studio unit in Shenton. So, will the next buyer be willing to also hold for 4 years? Unlikely. Well, he might - but only if the price is really cheap.
2) This cooling measure was the most dreconian ever. Remember when Shanghai imposed the 15% SD 2 months ago, property sales volume plunged by 80% in the next 2 months?
3) Prices are very likely to drop, or at best stagnate, after these new cooling measures. I am now going to target at least a 2-bedder in RCR (my budget cannot get a 2-bedder in prime area anymore). That will give me a larger investment window because the next buyer can very likely be a long-stayer rather than a speculator.
4) If the market turns during the older times, I can still afford the 3% SSD. But if market should turn within the next year, wah piang how to find 16% to pay iras, or pay for the margin call?
5) To begin with, I bought the unit at an "ok" price only, not that it was a fantastic price. It was actually a sub-sub-sale unit, right before T.O.P.
6) I think with the CPF i have on hand, can invest back in to equities, since the equity market is going well now.
7) The rest of the cash on hand can buy London property, or KLCC, or even some good buys in the States. Places where cooling measures are not in operation (well, at least not yet).
Haii... the new round of cooling measure really kill speculators la.. Well, at least it had an effect on me. :(
looks like 50% LTV for non individuals will put Enbloc to a STOP....
60% LTV....kind of expected...
the SSD machiam like capital gain tax!.....if market downturn how....those who sold at a loss still kena 4-16% SSD!!! wow....i tink SSD more jialat den cap gain tax leh....:scared-3:
now really small is beauitful liao......sianz.....more MMs to come:sleep:
Who called me...? :p
Small is Beautiful....MM.....
Just wondering, if buyer exercise option already, still can back out one? :beats-me-man:
rattydrama
13-01-11, 23:01
Just wondering, if buyer exercise option already, still can back out one? :beats-me-man:
U cannot do that technically unless seller agree.
This proves that always buy a property that is liveable so it is still sellable even during worst time of
market like this cooling measure. Price may fall or stablise or rise. It all depends on holding power of the developers and owners. For sure, demand will drop as investors stay out for a while but genuine buyers who buy to stay will still plough around for the best deal, hoping someone who has no holding power will do a firesale. Unfortunately, most owners are already prepared to hold and will not succumb to take losses unless economic crisis or hike in interest rates. For supply, it will also tighten as developers will cease or hold their new launches until the tide is over. So with both supply and demand lowered, price will stabilise.
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 23:02
dun tell me u bot a studio at cascadia? :)
exercise liao means legally binding rite?
Just wondering, if buyer exercise option already, still can back out one? :beats-me-man:
My thoughts..
We should be seeing more EC launches, this does not affect the HDB and EC. So property pricing base is firm.
This year is expecting to have more enbloc transaction, so the rules actually benefit cash rich major developers in the long run.
The new rules also benefit rich and wealthy for their holding power, and low borrowing. CCR should benefit. Rich individual should benefit.
If Europe and US are still in recovery, inflation should continue to impact property prices here. :2cents:
The Government on Thursday announced more measures to cool the property market.
The holding period for imposition of Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) will be increased from the current three years to four years.
The SSD rates will be raised to 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent of consideration for residential properties which are bought on or after January 14, 2011, and are sold in the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively;
The government will also lower the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit to 50 per cent on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) for property purchasers who are not individuals.
And for property purchasers who are individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home, the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS will be lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent.
The measures will take effect on January 14, 2011.
proud owner
13-01-11, 23:04
i said that spore is way behind the other countries like china, korea , hk, taiwan in terms of controlling prices
i kana shot down ....
people said Spore is Unique ...dont hae to follow others ...
na na na na na
prices will drop or not i cant tell... but we cant deny many outskirt areas are selling way too expensive
if this latest measures kills many .. we have FEO to thank ... push lah .. sell high high lah ...
rattydrama
13-01-11, 23:05
or OXLEY’S LOFT@HOLLAND?:p
dun tell me u bot a studio at cascadia? :)
exercise liao means legally binding rite?
Haa haa, not yet, just worry about my sale in Dec. Now I think cascadia will have even more discounts haa haa, so much units to clear.
dun tell me u bot a studio at cascadia? :)
exercise liao means legally binding rite?
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 23:06
if loft @ holland prob can choose whether to exercise or not.
or OXLEY’S LOFT@HOLLAND?:p
i don't think you have the balls to shortsell 1000 lots of capitaland tmr.
So many
property stocks, why u name one that is not really
into residential developments? Shortsell is almost a sure win tmr. Wat r the chances of property stock
prices heading up after this announcement? We'll see
or OXLEY’S LOFT@HOLLAND?:p
"37 one-bedroom units, ranging from 323 - 484 sq ft"
goodness ... :banghead:
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 23:10
should be alright. sue the bugger if he chickens out, exercised liao leh. hahaha. :)
Haa haa, not yet, just worry about my sale in Dec. Now I think cascadia will have even more discounts haa haa, so much units to clear.
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 23:11
best part is all sold out in 2 hours today. oops. its yesterday liao. new rules just came into effect. :ashamed1:
"37 one-bedroom units, ranging from 323 - 484 sq ft"
goodness ... :banghead:
"There is an ample supply of private residential units and buyers need not rush to buy now....
The Government will also make available more supply in future GLS programmes. Buyers should bear in mind this supply in the pipeline when deciding whether to buy now."
The two lines above are cut and pasted from the circular today? Does government notice usually makes such direct and explicit comment? Signalling determination or something they know and we obviously don't know? Or does it sound like government also not 100% sure whether measures will work or not?
HK measures was quite jialat but still market is partying, maybe government saw that too. each blow heavier than previous, government also bo bian since market/developers bui zi dong...
also questioning assuming of excessive liquidity, is it still really there when all governments in asia are raising rates and tightening and withdrawing stimulus?
bargain hunter
13-01-11, 23:19
this statement is very common. i think i have seen it quite frequently since 2007. nothing special.
"There is an ample supply of private residential units and buyers need not rush to buy now....
The Government will also make available more supply in future GLS programmes. Buyers should bear in mind this supply in the pipeline when deciding whether to buy now."
The two lines above are cut and pasted from the circular today? Does government notice usually makes such direct and explicit comment? Signalling determination or something they know and we obviously don't know? Or does it sound like government also not 100% sure whether measures will work or not?
HK measures was quite jialat but still market is partying, maybe government saw that too. each blow heavier than previous, government also bo bian since market/developers bui zi dong...
also questioning assuming of excessive liquidity, is it still really there when all governments in asia are raising rates and tightening and withdrawing stimulus?
rattydrama
13-01-11, 23:19
4 year SSD @ 16% 1st year or 12% 2nd year kill investor. If no investor to fry property, price appreciation becomes stagnant, we cannot huat x 3 liao. Its a spiral effect.
anyone share this thoughts?
If can sell better sell, otherwise, another cooling measure coming?:scared-3:
rattydrama
13-01-11, 23:21
Haa haa, not yet, just worry about my sale in Dec. Now I think cascadia will have even more discounts haa haa, so much units to clear.
my fren also kanna 27 dec otp... not sure the buyer will back out. If yes messy liao.
4 year SSD @ 16% 1st year or 12% 2nd year kill investor. If no investor to fry property, price appreciation becomes stagnant, we cannot huat x 3 liao. Its a spiral effect.
anyone share this thoughts?
If can sell better sell, otherwise, another cooling measure coming?:scared-3:
if u are greedy,just hold and wait.. i make money and move on,wait for beta opportunity than to get stuck in situation like this.
like a sitting duck,waiting for the govt to shoot.
Geylang OKT
13-01-11, 23:21
The writing was on the wall as early as June 2010! :D
devilplate
13-01-11, 23:24
so sky@11 30+ flr at 1200psf got chance?:D ;) :spliff:
some say
[email protected] 1200psf lai lai:D
rattydrama
13-01-11, 23:26
best part is all sold out in 2 hours today. oops. its yesterday liao. new rules just came into effect. :ashamed1:
200sqft mm, within 1 hr:eek: I am not staying.......mm power but I am not a fan. product still new in market, need to be tested...1st batch buyer no worries, can run away easily.
so sky@11 30+ flr at 1200psf got chance?:D ;) :spliff:
some say
[email protected] 1200psf lai lai:D
got chance, just standby your 1mio cash.
devilplate
13-01-11, 23:28
got chance, just standby your 1mio cash.
i tink 1mil not enuff wor..
jus nid rough calculation....nid about 1.3mio....hehe
Geylang OKT
13-01-11, 23:29
this time round the speculators really die pain! pain! :D
Hope that there will be more firesale or whatever you call it. Investors with no holding power and have purchased it after August 2010 are in for a lot of trouble.
This proves that always buy a property that is liveable so it is still sellable even during worst time of
market like this cooling measure. Price may fall or stablise or rise. It all depends on holding power of the developers and owners. For sure, demand will drop as investors stay out for a while but genuine buyers who buy to stay will still plough around for the best deal, hoping someone who has no holding power will do a firesale. Unfortunately, most owners are already prepared to hold and will not succumb to take losses unless economic crisis or hike in interest rates. For supply, it will also tighten as developers will cease or hold their new launches until the tide is over. So with both supply and demand lowered, price will stabilise.
i tink 1mil not enuff wor..unless 80% ltv...hehe
i was basing on the smallest unit, just over 2200sqft.
of course you can go for the bigger one and prepare 1.5mio cash depo.
rattydrama
13-01-11, 23:34
if u are greedy,just hold and wait.. i make money and move on,wait for beta opportunity than to get stuck in situation like this.
like a sitting duck,waiting for the govt to shoot.
next 2 month sure got firesale liao......
devilplate
13-01-11, 23:35
i was basing on the smallest unit, just over 2200sqft.
of course you can go for the bigger one and prepare 1.5mio cash depo.
ya...see anything gd comes by...i bio ocr landed as well....:D
but on serious note...i doubt any power firesales...perhaps some old 99LH condos may hf firesale....lease r running...tick tock tick tock...
proud owner
13-01-11, 23:38
i tink 1mil not enuff wor..
jus nid rough calculation....nid about 1.3mio....hehe
correct ....
unless price drop 20-30 pct otherwise the 40 pct cash portion can kill you ...
so if u have a OTP now ..will you exercise it and take 70 pct loan ?
or forego 1 pct deposit, dont exercise ... and wait for price to drop ?
if only drop 20 pct ... is it enuff ?
2 mio prop now 30 pct = 600k cash
if price drops 20 pct = 1.6 mio ... 40 pct cash = 640k
u end up paying more ..
so unless price falls 30 pct then worth it
next 2 month sure got firesale liao......
im alrdy viewing some units 58k cheaper off transact price. but again stuck for 4yrs, dont make this game any attractive especially for us who made and cash out alrdy.
ask urself, u made few hundred Ks..
seeing such current situation, do u buy back to get stuck with loan,rules and cash pump back in again..? do u..?
ya...see anything gd comes by...i bio ocr landed as well....:D
landed i think have cheong way too much. those URA charts will show. now the buyers have to come up with 40% cash plus a big chunk on reno. a thorough landed reno, is easily 150k. if rebuild, the amount is easily 5x that.
i think you'll get a chance.
devilplate
13-01-11, 23:43
correct ....
unless price drop 20-30 pct otherwise the 40 pct cash portion can kill you ...
so if u have a OTP now ..will you exercise it and take 70 pct loan ?
or forego 1 pct deposit, dont exercise ... and wait for price to drop ?
if only drop 20 pct ... is it enuff ?
2 mio prop now 30 pct = 600k cash
if price drops 20 pct = 1.6 mio ... 40 pct cash = 640k
u end up paying more ..
so unless price falls 30 pct then worth it
actually ltv no effect for me unless it drop to 40% ltv...hehe...i oni take 50% for resale/completed ppty
but well, u made a vy gd point...
so now hot monies flow to whr??? stocks? commodities? i dun mind silver bubble too:D
rattydrama
13-01-11, 23:45
im alrdy viewing some units 58k cheaper off transact price. but again stuck for 4yrs, dont make this game any attractive especially for us who made and cash out alrdy.
ask urself, u made few hundred Ks..
seeing such current situation, do u buy back to get stuck with loan,rules and cash pump back in again..? do u..?
depends on psf and location... i don't rule out buying if it is a good deal.....
correct ....
unless price drop 20-30 pct otherwise the 40 pct cash portion can kill you ...
so if u have a OTP now ..will you exercise it and take 70 pct loan ?
or forego 1 pct deposit, dont exercise ... and wait for price to drop ?
if only drop 20 pct ... is it enuff ?
2 mio prop now 30 pct = 600k cash
if price drops 20 pct = 1.6 mio ... 40 pct cash = 640k
u end up paying more ..
so unless price falls 30 pct then worth it
if there's no global crisis, i don't think prices will experience major corrections. it'll stagnate there in broad terms as both sellers withdraw their units and buyers stop hunting, resulting in an impasse. they'll be pockets of opportunities arising from a some panic sellers of course, just like in Sep.
devilplate
13-01-11, 23:46
landed i think have cheong way too much. those URA charts will show. now the buyers have to come up with 40% cash plus a big chunk on reno. a thorough landed reno, is easily 150k. if rebuild, the amount is easily 5x that.
i think you'll get a chance.
hope so...i made a big mistake last yr..miss landed boat....sian la...landed prices up the most so far since last yr bottom...haiz:doh:
One thing for sure is property stock prices will fall tmr when market opens. If u got the guts, short sell and make a handsome profit in one day. This new cooling measure will affect more of the new launches than resale cos 1st time buyer or upgraders cannot afford to wait 3 yrs for hse to be built while having money stucked (20% to 40%). This will help resale units tat r completed.
Good. Please do that. BBs are waiting for shortists like you. Most the property counters are cornered by deep pockets.
hope so...i made a big mistake last yr..miss landed boat....sian la...landed prices up the most so far since last yr bottom...haiz:doh:
hopefully the boat will come back to where you were waiting for it previously.
we live in very interesting times:
1) low interest rates
2) Strong cooling measures
3) Very strong sales of MM units
4) Overnight queues at EC
hopefully the boat will come back to where you were waiting for it previously.
When the boat come back, do u dare to board?:D
When the boat come back, do u dare to board?:D
No risk no gain.
When the boat come back, do u dare to board?:D
That'll separate the men from the boys. Whether smart or not is only apparent with the benefit of hindsight.
Well guys, let me have the balls enough to say I was wrong.:doh:
Thought that the Singapore would welcome all that foreign money into properties.
I thought wrong. So I am not as smart as I think I am.:ashamed1:
I think those who have no holding power, better get out while you can.
The next recession is going to happen soon.
1) lose job
2) rental down - cannot cover mortgage
3) valuation down - top up
4) SSD.
the joker card is - interest may or may not go up.
If interest rates goes up during crisis, the shit will hit the fan.
Of course, I have been proven not to be that accurate a forecaster :ashamed1:.
Well guys, let me have the balls enough to say I was wrong.:doh:
Thought that the Singapore would welcome all that foreign money into properties.
I thought wrong. So I am not as smart as I think I am.:ashamed1:
I think those who have no holding power, better get out while you can.
The next recession is going to happen soon.
1) lose job
2) rental down - cannot cover mortgage
3) valuation down - top up
4) SSD.
the joker card is - interest may or may not go up.
If interest rates goes up during crisis, the shit will hit the fan.
Of course, I have been proven not to be that accurate a forecaster :ashamed1:.
dont think owners can get out anytime.. is easy to buy a hse but difficult to sell.. unless in a 2007 market. selling your OTP is good enuff
devilplate
14-01-11, 00:19
Well guys, let me have the balls enough to say I was wrong.:doh:
Thought that the Singapore would welcome all that foreign money into properties.
I thought wrong. So I am not as smart as I think I am.:ashamed1:
I think those who have no holding power, better get out while you can.
The next recession is going to happen soon.
1) lose job
2) rental down - cannot cover mortgage
3) valuation down - top up
4) SSD.
the joker card is - interest may or may not go up.
If interest rates goes up during crisis, the shit will hit the fan.
Of course, I have been proven not to be that accurate a forecaster :ashamed1:.
mabe SG govt vy confident lor....they believe hot monies will still flows in...they want to retain more hot monies tats all...
i still tink the SSD really HIONG!
any1 knows wats the latest SSD for china/HK right now?
Good. Please do that. BBs are waiting for shortists like you. Most the property counters are cornered by deep pockets.
Ah, finally remember what you said. In case you miss my business proposal at another thread.
Actually I am waiting for bomb to go off in Orchard Road. According to you, price will drop to 1970s level, I propose instead of you selling at 1970s level, I will buy your property holdings at 1986 level one month after a bomb explode at Orchard Road. We use URA index for discount factor ya. Sounds fair?
devilplate
14-01-11, 01:18
HiongX3 SSD gona impact CCR n ltv gona impact ocr.... No winners in 2011
Looks like LR owners are really stuck this time: http://forums.condosingapore.com/showpost.php?p=118008&postcount=503
Nobody mentioned what happens when:
1. Interest rates increase
2. Foreign funds pullback
Clearly, the government's measures are aimed at limiting new purchases, especially from foreign funds/investors who are the culprits of our inflated economy. Due to the carry trade and the low interest rates environments, many investors today are short-term and want to get out before the conditions reverse against their favor. No investor in the right mind will borrow cheap USD and wait 4yrs for USD to appreciate (they will have to return more if that happens) or interest rates to go up. So, this will really deter foreign funds/investors from messing up our property market.
Let's not be in denial and argue that the measures will not affect HDB, CCR, larger transactions (>3m), MM, or rentals. You know somehow they will be affected as the property market (or even economy) functions as a whole.
I am saying that the government will not introduce new measures if prices have stabilized. That's the intent of the measure. New measures will only be introduced if prices continue to rise. The government doesn't want the market to drop, they just wants it to stabilize.
Sometimes, it's better for prices to fall than to stagnate, especially in a grossly inflated market. Just like China, it may be better for Singapore to release some air from the bubble and hold it in the mid-high level (hopefully) until the situation is somewhat clearer. So if the bubble really bursts (due to external/non-governmental circumstances), it would have a smaller effect on a larger number of people who would have bought more properties in the longer run. The government's latest effort, though a little late, is firm and definitive. You can tell from the huge leap in SSD that the government is desperate to put that into order. What I'm trying to say here is that it may be the government's intention for prices to drop with the newly implemented measures.
fair enough... agreed that prices going up too quickly is unhealthy, not good for the property market in the long run... Though not against property investors, but flippers...:)
There was a sharp rise in new and resale homes in the previous month (Dec 2010). No doubt that could have prompted the government to act now.
prices how to fall? en bloc prices and GLS all record high so how property prices can come down? MBT really knn, if he don't want developers to sell property high, why the hell would he even allow them to en bloc or buy land from govt to develop? If developers sell too high and buyers can't afford, developers would have common sense to adjust prices, don't need govt to teach them, right?
If they buy cheap, they don't necessarily have to sell cheap. So let them all buy high high and wait long long for their returns :beats-me-man:
Developers can rent out unsold units too. If rental moves even higher, good 2011 HUAT .
If that's the case, rentals should fall since there's now a bigger supply.
MEASURES TO MAINTAIN A STABLE AND SUSTAINABLE PROPERTY MARKET
1** The Government announced today the following measures to maintain a stable and sustainable property market:
a)*Increase the holding period for imposition of Seller’s Stamp Duty (SSD) from the current three years to four years;
b)*Raise the SSD rates to 16%, 12%, 8% and 4% of consideration for residential properties which are bought on or after 14 January 2011, and are sold in the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively;
c)*Lower the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit to 50% on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS for property purchasers who are not individuals1; and
d)*Lower the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS from 70% to 60% for property purchasers who are individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans2 at the time of the new housing purchase.
The measures will take effect on 14 January 2011.
2** The Government's objective is to ensure a stable and sustainable property market where prices move in line with economic fundamentals. Previous Government measures have to some extent moderated the market, but sentiments remain buoyant. Low interest rates plus excessive liquidity in the financial system, both in Singapore and globally, could cause prices to rise beyond sustainable levels based on economic fundamentals. Moreover, when interest rates eventually rise, it could strain purchasers who have overextended themselves financially. Therefore, the Government has decided to introduce additional targeted measures to cool the property market and encourage greater financial prudence among property purchasers.
*
Extending the Holding Period for Imposition of Seller’s Stamp Duty (SSD) on Residential Properties from 3 Years to 4 Years & Raising the SSD Rates
3** Currently, for residential properties bought on or after 30 August 2010, SSD3 is imposed on the sale of such properties within three years of purchase. This followed the introduction of SSD for residential properties bought on or after 20 February 2010.
4** The SSD rates will be increased sharply from 14 January 2011, so as to provide a strong disincentive for investors looking to make short term gains. The holding period for imposition of SSD will also be extended from the current three years to four years. The impact of the SSD is especially significant as it is payable regardless whether the property is eventually sold at a gain or loss.
5** Specifically, for residential properties bought4 on or after 14 January 2011, the SSD rates to be levied on the full consideration will be increased5 to as follows:
a)*SSD at 16% (higher than up to 3% currently), if the property is sold in the first year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for 1 year or less from its purchase date.*
b)*SSD at 12% (higher than up to 2% currently), if the property is sold in the second year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 1 year and up to 2 years.
c)*SSD at 8% (higher than up to 1% currently), if the property is sold in the third year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 2 years and up to 3 years.
d)*SSD at 4% (no SSD currently), if the property is sold in the fourth year of purchase, i.e. the property is held for more than 3 years and up to 4 years.
6** The extended SSD will not affect HDB lessees as the required Minimum Occupation Period for HDB flats is 5 years.
7** IRAS will be releasing an updated e-tax guide on the circumstances under which SSD will apply and the procedures for paying SSD6. The e-tax guide will be available at www.iras.gov.sg. Taxpayers with enquiries may call IRAS at 6351 3697 or 6351 3698.
Lower the Loan-To-Value (LTV) Limit to 50% on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS for residential property purchasers who are not individuals
8** With effect from 14 January 20117, an LTV limit of 50% will apply to all residential property purchasers who are not individuals. This includes corporations, trusts and collective investment schemes, among others.* The 50% LTV limit for housing loans will also apply to joint property purchases by an individual and a purchaser who is not an individual.
Lower the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS from the current 70% to 60% for residential property purchasers who are individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new housing purchase
9** The LTV limit is lowered from 70% to 60% with effect from 14 January 20118 for borrowers who are individuals and have one or more outstanding housing loans (whether from HDB or a financial institution regulated by MAS) at the time of applying for a housing loan for the new property purchase.
10* *However, borrowers who can show evidence that they have sold their existing properties will not be subject to the lower LTV limit when they buy a new property. Where the existing property is a private property, he can show a signed Sale & Purchase (S&P) agreement with the IRAS certificate showing that stamp duty has been paid on it.* Where the existing property is a HDB flat, he can show HDB’s approval letter to sell the flat, that HDB will issue within 2 weeks of the First Appointment.* These borrowers will still be able to borrow at an 80% LTV from financial institutions.
11** Borrowers without any outstanding housing loans continue to have a LTV cap of 80%.*
12** These rules apply to housing loans granted by financial institutions for private residential properties, Executive Condominiums, HUDC flats and HDB flats (including DBSS flats).
13* *Loans granted by HDB for HDB flats (including DBSS flats) will still have a LTV cap of 90%. HDB loans are offered to eligible Singapore citizens buying their first homes or right-sizing their flats to meet their housing needs. HDB loan applicants are required to utilise all the balance in their CPF Ordinary Account before HDB loans will be granted.* Furthermore, those taking a second concessionary HDB loan must use the CPF refund and 50% of the cash proceeds from the sale of their previous flat before they are granted an HDB loan. This is to ensure that eligible buyers, especially first-time buyers, purchase public housing in a financially prudent manner.
Adequate Supply in the Pipeline
14** There is an ample supply of private residential units and buyers need not rush to buy now. The Government will continue to ensure an adequate supply of housing to meet demand.
15** The annual average take-up9 of private residential units between 2007 and 2010 is about 12,700 units. Thus far, the sites awarded under the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme in 2010 will already yield about 13,300 units. In the GLS Programme for the first half of 2011, we will make available sites that can yield about 14,300 private housing units, of which about 8,100 units will be from sites on the Confirmed List.
16** As at 3Q2010, there were about 64,400 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline10. Of these, about 33,800 units were still unsold. This is equivalent to about 3 years of supply based on the average annual take-up over the last 4 years. The 33,800 unsold units in the pipeline comprised 3,300 units that had been launched for sale by developers and 11,400 units which had the pre-requisite conditions for sale11 and could be launched for sale immediately. The remaining 19,100 units with planning approvals did not have the pre-requisite conditions for sale but these could be obtained quickly from the Government12. The Government will also make available more supply in future GLS programmes. Buyers should bear in mind this supply in the pipeline when deciding whether to buy now.
17** The Government will continue to monitor the property market closely and take further steps to promote a stable and sustainable property market if necessary.
Issued by the Ministry of National Development, Ministry of Finance and Monetary Authority of Singapore
13 January 2011
1"Purchasers who are not individuals” refer to purchasers who are not natural persons. These include but are not limited to corporations, trusts and collective investment schemes.
2Financial institutions are required to conduct checks with HDB and with one or more credit bureaus on whether the purchaser has an outstanding housing loan at the time of applying for a housing loan for the property purchase. For joint purchasers, if either purchaser has an outstanding housing loan, the joint purchasers will be considered as having an outstanding housing loan.*
3The SSD will apply to the transfer or disposal of interest (including sale and gifts) of residential lands and residential units (whether completed or uncompleted).
4The date of purchase for computation of the holding period for SSD shall be the date when a buyer (i.e. Buyer A) exercises the option to purchase the property, or signs the sale and purchase agreement, whichever is earlier. The date of sale of the property shall be the date when the subsequent buyer (i.e. Buyer B) exercises the option to purchase the property from Buyer A, or signs the sale and purchase agreement, whichever is earlier.
5Currently, the SSD rates are levied at the same rate as buyer's stamp duty, i.e. 1% for the first $180,000, 2% for the next $180,000 and 3% on the balance. The SSD rates are tiered according to the duration of the holding period, i.e. the seller pays the full SSD rate if the residential property is sold in the first year of purchase; 2/3 the full SSD rate if the sale is in the second year; 1/3 the full SSD rate if in the third year.
6SSD is to be paid within 14 days of the execution of the Agreement (i.e. exercise of Option or signing of Agreement). If the Agreement is executed overseas, upon receipt of the Agreement in Singapore, the SSD must be paid within 30 days.
7The 50% LTV limit will apply to transactions where the date on which the option to purchase (OTP) was granted falls on or after 14 January 2011; or if there is no OTP, where the date of the Sale & Purchase agreement falls on or after 14 January 2011.*
8The 60% LTV limit will apply to transactions where the date on which the option to purchase (OTP) was granted falls on or after 14 January 2011; or if there is no OTP, where the date of the Sale & Purchase agreement falls on or after 14 January 2011.*
9Take-up refers to the number of private residential units, including Executive Condominium (EC) units, sold by developers.
10These refer to new development and redevelopment projects with planning approvals, i.e. either a Provisional Permission (PP) or Written Permission (WP).
11These refer to private residential developments with Housing Developer Licence and Building Plan Approval. Under the Housing Developer (Control and Licensing) Act, a sale licence must be obtained for a project with more than 4 units, if the developer intends to sell uncompleted residential units in the development. However, the sale of the residential units can only commence with the approval of the building plans of the development.
12These refer to uncompleted private residential developments without pre-requisites for sale but with WP or PP granted. The sale licences could be obtained within 5 working days and building plan approvals could be obtained within 7 working days from the date of application for cases where clearances from various technical agencies are obtained and relevant documents are in order during formal submissions.
Ok. Looks like propertism will be back in fashion!
Only BUY, never SELL!:D
See lah? Tell you all dun speculate liao, you all never listen. Now cry liao right?:D
Buy property to STAY. Buy property to invest, ie rental return.
DO NOT BUY PROPERTY TO MAKE QUICK BUCK!!!!
Think i won't short tomorrow. I will buy instead.
Think i won't short tomorrow. I will buy instead.
Wait to drop until stable first.....
tell me something we dont know..
if a unit asking 700k, val at 770k and trans at 750k..
Its mean, noone biting the bait. Be it prices up or down
Yes. Correct. Buyers waiting although sellers reasonable.
Dun worry, in fact with these measures, buyers are more certain to commit or not. Genuine self stay folks would still bite.
It's buy for self stay now. Newly weds main target, new families main target. Hdb up graders main target. But can hold 1 at a time only. No more cash if holding two.
How coincidence!.... i remember their Viva Vista was launch juz before Aug 2010 measures... their launch agents surely have to put in double efforts:D
Well they still succeed.. Heng to shit or something like that. Now repeated here.
No risk no gain.
No risk, no Pain
Big risk, big Pain.
kingkong1984
14-01-11, 03:39
You are lucky... Can still run.
First time buyer and buy CCR studio for what? Get a hdb EC and have it fully paid better right?
Very sad evening for me.
I just rang up my agent and told her that I am cancelling the purchase of a studio unit at The Clift that I had just bought last week. 1% deposit already paid last week. Supposed to exercise the option on the coming Monday. I have been shopping for the last one 1 year and finally just decided last week to realise my dream as a property owner.
I was not worried about the LTV (cos I am a first time buyer) or even the SSD (cos I can actually exercise my option tonight at the lawyer's). But I decided to forgo my 1% deposit due to the following reasons:
1) I bought a studio unit in Shenton area. So very clear cut, it's for investment/speculation reasons only. My next buyer (say... even 4 years later) is likely to be an investor as well, cos it is extremely unlikely for a genuine long-stayer to move his whole family into a studio unit in Shenton. So, will the next buyer be willing to also hold for 4 years? Unlikely. Well, he might - but only if the price is really cheap.
2) This cooling measure was the most dreconian ever. Remember when Shanghai imposed the 15% SD 2 months ago, property sales volume plunged by 80% in the next 2 months?
3) Prices are very likely to drop, or at best stagnate, after these new cooling measures. I am now going to target at least a 2-bedder in RCR (my budget cannot get a 2-bedder in prime area anymore). That will give me a larger investment window because the next buyer can very likely be a long-stayer rather than a speculator.
4) If the market turns during the older times, I can still afford the 3% SSD. But if market should turn within the next year, wah piang how to find 16% to pay iras, or pay for the margin call?
5) To begin with, I bought the unit at an "ok" price only, not that it was a fantastic price. It was actually a sub-sub-sale unit, right before T.O.P.
6) I think with the CPF i have on hand, can invest back in to equities, since the equity market is going well now.
7) The rest of the cash on hand can buy London property, or KLCC, or even some good buys in the States. Places where cooling measures are not in operation (well, at least not yet).
Haii... the new round of cooling measure really kill speculators la.. Well, at least it had an effect on me. :(
kingkong1984
14-01-11, 04:01
Very good point!
Look at it this way. F30 always forward price their projects and give about 16 percent discount. I think they could still give 20 percent if they want (take away agent com, show flat, cut law fee, marketing etc). Which leads me to think that these measures are targeted at arresting it.
Now first time buyers have to choose hdb over EC or condo. Since hdb cannot buy if u own condo, most would target new hdb. Then u have some die die want condo, they should then go for new ones.
Next u have this group of condo stayed wanna be. What would they get? Resale EC, older condo, ready built OCR condo or even OCR building under construction BUC one. Since got 4 years to hold without penalty. It makes good sense to go for BUC, sell upon top if dun like the unit or things turn bad.
Now u have to look at pricing. How to price? It would be in accordance wit their affordability and income level. They are to be priced out of hdb and assuming dual income of 10k. They should be able to afford 3k monthly contribution from CPF jointly. You then have to look their cash portion. They should be able to come up with at least 50k in cash. Guess their age now. Should be around early thirties the bext. Next you have forward it and count their max loan tenure, that is what they can afford. Lower it if they have a lower risk appetite. They should be able to afford around 850k to 1 million properties comfortably. That is the pricing range u have to look for if u r selling. Cannot ask for too much.
The new cooling measures means coming up with 5% + 15% + stamp duty 3% - 5400. then u have look at the punitive part of 4 yrs. Have to fork out about 16% if they have to sell and assuming 1 to 1.5% agent fee. They are actually out of pocket by 40 percent. So logically, to put them on even ground with flippers, u make the LTV at equivalent 60% max for retail borrowers. Make sense?
Now it's not the time to buy. Wait and buy ready built condo when u can see and accept it as is where is. You will not be affected by SSD if u dun need to sell. But you must let the dust settle first. Which is about 6 mths. Can start shopping again thereafter. ;)
i said that spore is way behind the other countries like china, korea , hk, taiwan in terms of controlling prices
i kana shot down ....
people said Spore is Unique ...dont hae to follow others ...
na na na na na
prices will drop or not i cant tell... but we cant deny many outskirt areas are selling way too expensive
if this latest measures kills many .. we have FEO to thank ... push lah .. sell high high lah ...
kingkong1984
14-01-11, 04:30
Forums are so addictive. The more you posts the more u want to come back. I will take a break now and cure myself of this addition. Anyway nothing much to say anymore since it is going down down down before up.
Bye bye!
:cool:
I have this feeling that the government is also preparing to contain inflation this year. The main course is interest rate which will whack all borrowers, and these property measures for pte properties are just the appetisers to prevent over-borrowing.
Geylang OKT
14-01-11, 06:11
Forums are so addictive. The more you posts the more u want to come back. I will take a break now and cure myself of this addition. Anyway nothing much to say anymore since it is going down down down before up.
Bye bye!
:cool:
Way down man.... :scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-3:
I have this feeling that the government is also preparing to contain inflation this year. The main course is interest rate which will whack all borrowers, and these property measures for pte properties are just the appetisers to prevent over-borrowing.
Yes, inflation will be a key concern. Interest rates surely go up from now on. 3.88 is a nice number. Just how soon..... Year end? Haha
if there's no global crisis, i don't think prices will experience major corrections. it'll stagnate there in broad terms as both sellers withdraw their units and buyers stop hunting, resulting in an impasse. they'll be pockets of opportunities arising from a some panic sellers of course, just like in Sep.
I don't think you need a major crisis. All you need is for the crisis to be OVER and the interest rate to go up to normal levels.
When the interest payments starts to STACK up... then you will see fire sales. Now interest so low, everybody got holding power....
I have this feeling that the government is also preparing to contain inflation this year. The main course is interest rate which will whack all borrowers, and these property measures for pte properties are just the appetisers to prevent over-borrowing.
actually I thought our interest rates are a bit special and is closely tied with US interest rates right?
What determine Sibor rate in singapore? I think not the government right due to our open economy?
Any econ experts here?
stalingrad
14-01-11, 07:08
actually I thought our interest rates are a bit special and is closely tied with US interest rates right?
What determine Sibor rate in singapore? I think not the government right due to our open economy?
Any econ experts here?
Singapore doesn't adjust interest rates to cool or heat up the economy. It uses exchange rates.
Yes, and our exchange rate will still continue go up to deflect inflation effects (according to MAS). Would investors want to change to a currency that will appreciate (make money from forex) or depreciate? I would expect more foreign money coming into Singapore as long as S$ keep appreciating (especially against US$). Ok, after foreigners bring money into Singapore, what will they do? Keep in bank as FDs and earn 0.1%? Don't think so, especially for venture funds, hedge funds, private funds of individuals and companies or even UTs companies etc. They will invest in properties and shares! Future is still bright for these 2 investments! :cheers1:
Singapore doesn't adjust interest rates to cool or heat up the economy. It uses exchange rates.
Yes, and our exchange rate will still continue go up to deflect inflation effects (according to MAS). Would investors want to change to a currency that will appreciate (make money from forex) or depreciate? I would expect more foreign money coming into Singapore as long as S$ keep appreciating (especially against US$). Ok, after foreigners bring money into Singapore, what will they do? Keep in bank as FDs and earn 0.1%? Don't think so, especially for venture funds, hedge funds, private funds of individuals and companies or even UTs companies etc. They will invest in properties and shares! Future is still bright for these 2 investments! :cheers1:
Singapore can increase interest rate (benchmark or the SIBOR), it's a matter of whether MAS wants to do it or not. I think the best way to stem inflation is to allow Sing$ to depreciate and interest rates to increase. However, it will be costly $$$ to them...
Singapore can increase interest rate (...
Our monetary system is setup in such a way that we can manipulate FX rate but not interest rate. This is uniquely Singapore......
stalingrad
14-01-11, 08:01
Singapore can increase interest rate (benchmark or the SIBOR), it's a matter of whether MAS wants to do it or not. I think the best way to stem inflation is to allow Sing$ to depreciate and interest rates to increase. However, it will be costly $$$ to them...
mas works like this
(1) buy sing dollars to increase the exchange rate. with fewer sing dollars, interest rates go up.
(2) sell sing dollars to decrease the exchange rate. with more sing dollars in circulation, interest rates go down.
hope this help.
rattydrama
14-01-11, 08:03
just need the developer to adjust 10% down for their new releases and the buying spree will chiong again? :spliff: impact could have been short term only.
mas works like this
(1) buy sing dollars to increase the exchange rate. with fewer sing dollars, interest rates go up.
In theory yes, but with quantative easing from USA and EU this is not happening. Too much "hot money" flowing around. This could explain why our government implemented these cooling measures as they have no real monetary tools to bring up interest rate.....
Is your theory correct, i.e. Exchange rate up means interest rate will go up and vice versa? Let see real case in Singapore:
1) In 2008, interest rate 5%, US$:S$ = 1.7x
2) In 2010, interest rate 1%, US$:s$ = 1.29
Your theory doesn't stand up to real scrutiny. That makes me really wonder about those so called truth/information you provided previously is real or not. :scared-2: Pls check your facts before you post such misleading/untruth information/misinformation. :doh:
mas works like this
(1) buy sing dollars to increase the exchange rate. with fewer sing dollars, interest rates go up.
(2) sell sing dollars to decrease the exchange rate. with more sing dollars in circulation, interest rates go down.
hope this help.
stalingrad
14-01-11, 08:33
city develop down 5% and capitaland 3.5%. I did not short these stocks, :banghead:
proud owner
14-01-11, 08:33
Our monetary system is setup in such a way that we can manipulate FX rate but not interest rate. This is uniquely Singapore......
so far yes
but i dont like the term UNIQUE ...
people tell me spore is UNIQUE no need to follow china, hk, korea, taiwan who has harsher measures .. and see what happened ?
so about fx and interest rates ..they are as it is now .. until MAS decides to make changes ... not UNIQUE
stalingrad
14-01-11, 08:35
Is your theory correct, i.e. Exchange rate up means interest rate will go up and vice versa? Let see real case in Singapore:
1) In 2008, interest rate 5%, US$:S$ = 1.7x
2) In 2010, interest rate 1%, US$:s$ = 1.29
Your theory doesn't stand up to real scrutiny. Pls check your facts before you post such misleading/untruth information/misinformation. :doh:
you need to take global interest rates into consideration. I was referring to relative interest rates.
I believe the government must have seen something ahead to introduce these severe measures out of the blue. Just to share:
http://www.propwise.sg/where-will-interest-rates-go-in-2011/
Sorry guys, to bring this up again.
I am hounding Stalingrad like a hound, since I smell potential profits from his knowledge D10 properties. I believe these to be hidden gems. So I throw my dignity to the wind and beg Stalingrad about his knowledge of D10 that he mentioned in another thread.
Stalingrad, you are either a speaker of untruths or selfish.
1) untrue because there is no such properties.
2) untrue there are such projects, but you are interested to buy CCR, so you dont want competition.
3) selfish because not interested in CCR,yet do not want to share.
by the way, I have no issue with point3. So which are you? Just shut me up.:D
And to Orange,
You are one bombastic fellow. When the push to shove, you hide in a corner and ignore. So do you still think prices will drop to 1970s level if a bomb explode in Orchard Rd?
A simple answer yes or no will suffice. or you will just ignore my question and business proposal? just shut me up too.:D
Guys, I maybe a loudmouth idiot, but I will recognised when I am wrong and i dont hide it.
I think I am the only who admitted that he is wrong in predicting that government won't take additional measures.
Sorry for making this personal.:cheers1:
stalingrad
14-01-11, 08:39
Sorry guys, to bring this up again.
I am hounding Stalingrad like a hound, since I smell potential profits from his knowledge D10 properties. I believe these to be hidden gems. So I throw my dignity to the wind and beg Stalingrad about his knowledge of D10 that he mentioned in another thread.
Stalingrad, you are either a speaker of untruths or selfish.
1) untrue because there is no such properties.
2) untrue there are such projects, but you are interested to buy CCR, so you dont want competition.
3) selfish because not interested in CCR,yet do not want to share.
by the way, I have no issue with point3. So which are you? Just shut me up.:D
And to Orange,
You are one bombastic fellow. When the push to shove, you hide in a corner and ignore. So do you still think prices will drop to 1970s level if a bomb explode in Orchard Rd?
A simple answer yes or no will suffice. or you will just ignore my question and business proposal? just shut me up too.:D
Guys, I maybe a loudmouth idiot, but I will recognised when I am wrong and i dont hide it.
I think I am the only who admitted that he is wrong in predicting that government won't take additional measures.
Sorry for making this personal.:cheers1:
go check out casabella on streetsine.com. less than 1300psf and not even a big unit.
you happy now. now stop hounding me. :mad:
proud owner
14-01-11, 08:40
just need the developer to adjust 10% down for their new releases and the buying spree will chiong again? :spliff: impact could have been short term only.
based on my calculation ... prices have to drop 30 pct to benefit buyers of second prop so that the cash portion of 40pct becomes lower than when it was 30 pct
question to ask :
will prop price falls 30 pct becos of this measures ?
for those who already have OTP before 14 jan .. it is still old rules .. if they exercise the option .. they are subject to the old rules ..
so if they sell within 1st yr ..the SD is 3 pct not 16 pct ..
thats my understanding
Why would anybody care about relative interest rate or phantom interest rate or whatever that has no concern to them when they own S$, and borrow in interest rate prevailing in Singapore? Another nonsense of yours about 'relative' (or phantom) interest rates that nobody in Singapore uses? :doh:
you need to take global interest rates into consideration. I was referring to relative interest rates.
Yup. It affects the typical Singaporean with less than 200K in OA from playing in property. It does not prevent the richer foreigners to continue to pump in money here.
Ok - for the sake of discussion...FTs are still coming in. Singapore is still projected to grow 4-5% this year. Rentals could maintain or increase, no?
stalingrad
14-01-11, 08:45
Why would anybody care about relative interest rate or phantom interest rate or whatever that has no concern to them when they own S$, and borrow in interest rate prevailing in Singapore? Another nonsense of yours about 'relative' (or phantom) interest rates that nobody in Singapore uses? :doh:
when I talk to you, I fully understand this chinese proverb: "when a scholar meets a foot soldier, he will never win an argument."
I think the policies are directed at private properties. The beauty of the policy is that it does not affect 1st time buyers of ECs.
Know what you mean, but from my feeling, this time cooling measure will majorly affect HDB or OCR market.
Normally CCR market prices are driven high by foreing money, now especially from China, but for Chinese buyers, even their mainland China or HK also got afftected with legal measures, so this singapore measure is not so strong factor for them, unless Capital gain tax.
Definitely. Price stable. Everybody happy. One less topic for opposition parties to harp on.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1104505/1/.html
everything has to do with election ...
Yup. I agree that there will be less money in the game. There will be less players for sure.
Every investor will consider the transaction costs, liquidity, optionality and flexibility of his investments. Even if I intend to invest in something for 4 years, I still like to have the option to sell it within say 3 years without much penalty if anything happens. In short, it becomes a less attractive asset class with lots of restrictions and penalties. These measure will have impact. Let's face it and not live in denial. And I think these are good measures - Singapore property market is dominated by investors which is not healthy. At the end of the day, property is meant to be lived in and enjoyed :)
proud owner
14-01-11, 08:49
Yup. It affects the typical Singaporean with less than 200K in OA from playing in property. It does not prevent the richer foreigners to continue to pump in money here.
there are 2 groups of rich foreigners ...
the buy to stay/holiday use foreigners ..
and the buy to speculate rich gambler (PRC especially) ...this group came in very strong in sep-dec 2010 when china imposed SD , when they stayed out of china and 'played' singapore propertise
the second group will slow down .. or even be killed ...
the first group hasnt really come back since after Lehman crisis ..
so how ? still have rich foreigners coming to buy ?
proud owner
14-01-11, 08:50
I think the policies are directed at private properties. The beauty of the policy is that it does not affect 1st time buyers of ECs.
as a first time buyer ... one is NOT affected at all be it private or EC
stalingrad
14-01-11, 08:51
Definitely. Price stable. Everybody happy. One less topic for opposition parties to harp on.
only teddy is unhappy. his ccr properties are now not worth the bricks they are built with. haha.
Speculative properties bought 2 years ago will drop like a rock now.
Does anyone know any good prime properties which were purchased on deferred payment scheme that will be TOP soon?
The seller still keen to sell because may not want to take up the loan, besides if the loan is 60% instead of 80% (originally when he bought the apartment) then prices will surely drop.
I can't remember when the deferred payment scheme was scrapped.
Got. They keep coming back to me wanting to buy my choice units at market price (especially immediately after Govt implements cooling measures) and I always quote them 15% above market price. They LL! Good choice units not scare no buyers. Rich people like choice units in the estate, expensive never mind. Cheap to them is no good (as you said). What is a good reason to sell cheap (cheaper than your neighbouring units) if your property is really good choice unit? Nil. When you sell cheap, it means your unit is no good compared to neighbouring units. The same is true about one estate vs the neighbouring estate (usually the more expensive estates are the better estates - Ops, only caveat is I am comparing resale vs resale, never against new sale because those not worth the money since developers always quote at 25-35% premium and still attracts lots of speculators, pay 10% option fee and can wait till pay the rest for next 3-4 years). :p
there are 2 groups of rich foreigners ...
the buy to stay/holiday use foreigners ..
and the buy to speculate rich gambler (PRC especially) ...this group came in very strong in sep-dec 2010 when china imposed SD , when they stayed out of china and 'played' singapore propertise
the second group will slow down .. or even be killed ...
the first group hasnt really come back since after Lehman crisis ..
so how ? still have rich foreigners coming to buy ?
bargain hunter
14-01-11, 08:56
stalin, mine and maybe amk's favourite: DUCHESS RESIDENCES hahaha.
if i din remember wrongly, deferred was scraped in late 2007 (possibly oct). anything bought during the peak in Q2 to Q3 2007 may be what you would be looking out for. :) good luck.
Speculative properties bought 2 years ago will drop like a rock now.
Does anyone know any good prime properties which were purchased on deferred payment scheme that will be TOP soon?
The seller still keen to sell because may not want to take up the loan, besides if the loan is 60% instead of 80% (originally when he bought the apartment) then prices will surely drop.
I can't remember when the deferred payment scheme was scrapped.
Squall8888
14-01-11, 08:57
If they start tweaking the interest rate, your currency is screwed big time. Business will leave soon and the free market reputation is gone. Money will reverse out and Singapore will really die.
In theory yes, but with quantative easing from USA and EU this is not happening. Too much "hot money" flowing around. This could explain why our government implemented these cooling measures as they have no real monetary tools to bring up interest rate.....
Bad news all round, almost 30k housing agents out there now registered, some going to eat grass for a while..., new launches down, flipping down, volume of transaction down..., really tough. I know some agents in recents mths not interested to do HDB rentals, maximise their time on sales of units..., now merrying up rentals may be their best source of bread n butter
Strange enough, I was with an Agent friend last evening for drinks and he say this morning he will be busy attending internal meetings..
But the SSD portion affects the private property. For EC, it is no impact as it has to be sold to Singapores/PR after 5 years.
as a first time buyer ... one is NOT affected at all be it private or EC
Latest measures really scary.
Just about it, given 40% loan and more importantly the 16% SSD the speculators and short term investors (2 years horizon) will be completely gone.
It is like saying, you can only buy if you have lots of cash, and after buying you cannot sell in the short term. Even you got money you won't buy, right? Unless you are truly landlord type of person or buying a home.
Big blow.
Even Fixed deposit can be closed if you need the money. This one really makes ppty investment very very illiquid.
I cannot imagine how much prices will drop?
proud owner
14-01-11, 09:08
Got. They keep coming back to me wanting to buy my choice units at market price (especially immediately after Govt implements cooling measures) and I always quote them 15% above market price. They LL! Good choice units not scare no buyers. Rich people like choice units in the estate, expensive never mind. Cheap to them is no good (as you said). What is a good reason to sell cheap (cheaper than your neighbouring units) if your property is really good choice unit? Nil. When you sell cheap, it means your unit is no good compared to neighbouring units. The same is true about one estate vs the neighbouring estate (usually the more expensive estates are the better estates - Ops, only caveat is I am comparing resale vs resale, never against new sale because those not worth the money since developers always quote at 25-35% premium and still attracts lots of speculators, pay 10% option fee and can wait till pay the rest for next 3-4 years). :p
good to know and happy for you ...
can u kindly update us ( me especially) if after this latest measures ..wil they still DIE DIE pay up 15 pct for choice unit
i am not being sarcastic but sincerely want to know whats these buyer's mentalities are after the measures
thanks
proud owner
14-01-11, 09:11
Latest measures really scary.
Just about it, given 40% loan and more importantly the 16% SSD the speculators and short term investors (2 years horizon) will be completely gone.
It is like saying, you can only buy if you have lots of cash, and after buying you cannot sell in the short term. Even you got money you won't buy, right? Unless you are truly landlord type of person or buying a home.
Big blow.
Even Fixed deposit can be closed if you need the money. This one really makes ppty investment very very illiquid.
I cannot imagine how much prices will drop?
if your prop is bought before 14 jan .. SD only 3 pct if sold within 3yrs ..
if no one buys prop ... the whole system will be even moreflushed with $$$ ..bank interest rates will fall even more ...
read my earlier post ... i dont think it will drop below 30 pct .. or according to Mr Kwek ..max 38 pct and you will be able to find a buyer
I agree. There are some folks in this forum who do not stand up to their mistake and blast others. That is rude and lacks class.
I am referring to others (not Stalingrad or Orange though)
Sorry guys, to bring this up again.
I am hounding Stalingrad like a hound, since I smell potential profits from his knowledge D10 properties. I believe these to be hidden gems. So I throw my dignity to the wind and beg Stalingrad about his knowledge of D10 that he mentioned in another thread.
Stalingrad, you are either a speaker of untruths or selfish.
1) untrue because there is no such properties.
2) untrue there are such projects, but you are interested to buy CCR, so you dont want competition.
3) selfish because not interested in CCR,yet do not want to share.
by the way, I have no issue with point3. So which are you? Just shut me up.:D
And to Orange,
You are one bombastic fellow. When the push to shove, you hide in a corner and ignore. So do you still think prices will drop to 1970s level if a bomb explode in Orchard Rd?
A simple answer yes or no will suffice. or you will just ignore my question and business proposal? just shut me up too.:D
Guys, I maybe a loudmouth idiot, but I will recognised when I am wrong and i dont hide it.
I think I am the only who admitted that he is wrong in predicting that government won't take additional measures.
Sorry for making this personal.:cheers1:
nobrainer32007
14-01-11, 09:18
Bad bad news!
Residential property market will be on the brink of death in next 3 quarters, at least.
Speculators and short term investors are totally out of the game.
Marginal investors will be totally squeezed out.
Aspirational investors will rethink about getting a second property.
High networth investors will be waiting for significant correction before jumping in again.
Property investment will increasingly be reserved for the well to do. Rich man playground. Rich getting richer( though not near term).
based on my calculation ... prices have to drop 30 pct to benefit buyers of second prop so that the cash portion of 40pct becomes lower than when it was 30 pct
question to ask :
will prop price falls 30 pct becos of this measures ?
for those who already have OTP before 14 jan .. it is still old rules .. if they exercise the option .. they are subject to the old rules ..
so if they sell within 1st yr ..the SD is 3 pct not 16 pct ..
thats my understanding
The 30 % drop is based on the loan issue only, what about SSD issue? I am thinking there are people who can buy with less loan but don't want the ppty to be so illiquid. Like if I offered you a 5% interest rate Fixed deposit but you will incur 16% penalty will you go for it?
I have no idea how much prices will drop, but I know it will be significant for some segments, the highly speculative segments of Rivervalley for example.
dun say drop 30%, if drop 15 to 20% all hell break loose liao lol and HDB will be hit
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