2011 Future Supply of Residential Properties

[hyenergix]

http://condolaunchsingapore.blogspot.com/2011/01/2011-future-supply-of-residential.html

[Wild Falcon]

Interesting year ahead with so much completions.. Many cluttered around 3-4 districts in a small area.
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8,430 new private homes set to be completed in 2011

CLOSE to half of the estimated 8,430 new private homes that are slated to be completed in 2011 will be in the upmarket core central region, according to fresh data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday.

The government agency has also bumped up its estimate for the projected supply of private homes due to be completed this year by 25 per cent from three months ago. In October 2010, URA estimated that 6,766 new private homes will be completed in 2011.

Sources told BT that URA has been surveying developers more closely over the last few months in a bid to compile more accurate pipeline supply figures. The agency computes the estimated supply of private housing units in the pipeline through a quarterly survey of developers.
In response to a query from BT, URA said it will continue to work closely with developers to ensure that they submit up-to-date estimations of the expected completion dates of their projects.

'URA's survey of the developers' completion (for 2011) is only starting to increase. The increase from Q3 2010's forecast for 2011 completions to Q4 2010's forecast is a significant 25 per cent. Over the next few quarters, we expect to see further upward revisions,' said Ku Swee Yong, chief executive of real estate firm International Property Advisor.

Looking at the latest completion estimates, analysts once again warned that home-buyers need to brace themselves for a very large supply of private residential units due to be completed each year from 2011 to 2015.
URA currently estimates that 8,116 units will be completed in 2012; 17,111 units in 2013; 17,421 units in 2014; and 13,453 units in 2015.
In fact, 2010's number of newly completed private homes, which stands at around 10,400 units, is already higher than the historical average annual increase in housing supply of around 6,400 private units over the last decade, Mr Ku pointed out. For 2011, a total of 3,874 homes will be added to the housing supply in the core central region, which includes the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove. This will make up 46 per cent of the islandwide housing supply of 8,430 new private homes.

Another 2,265 private homes will be completed in the rest of central region, while in the outside central region, 2,291 units will be completed this year.
URA also said that as at the end of Q4 2010, there was a total supply of 65,699 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline. Of these, 32,776 units were still unsold.

[mcmlxxvi]

Deja vu... Have i seen the article somewhere many times over.... Always say plenty in pipeline oversupply etc but in the end still new highs for land sales and enbloc and launch prices etc....

[hyenergix]

Need to view this against the immigration number. Now the number is currently down, but with hints from the govt that it might be upped again. If that is the case, no over-supply, at least for HDB and mass market condo.

[Wild Falcon]

This is not launch numbers. This is completion. Real units coming into the market. Since few years ago, we all know "oversupply" will only come on in 2011/2012 which seems far away but now 2011/2012 is really near already lor. Maybe like what u say, no impact.


Deja vu... Have i seen the article somewhere many times over.... Always say plenty in pipeline oversupply etc but in the end still new highs for land sales and enbloc and launch prices etc....

[rattydrama]

This is not launch numbers. This is completion. Real units coming into the market. Since few years ago, we all know "oversupply" will only come on in 2011/2012 which seems far away but now 2011/2012 is really near already lor. Maybe like what u say, no impact.


after the election, everything will be clearer.

[azeoprop]

Even Mah say will over supply.... :scared-3:
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_629964.html

[rattydrama]

Even Mah say will over supply.... :scared-3:
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_629964.html
he is desperate for the figures so have to say something and be politically correct.

[teddybear]

Wah, Mr Mah saying if you want to upgrade from HDB to a (mass market) private property, can wait and will get better deal! :scared-3:
Trying to analyze how he conclude this and I was pondering some news like:
- non-core central region prices above previous peak of about 19%! (core central region still below previous peak).
- Non-core central region supply to be abundant thanks to Mr Mah's massive govt land sales programme in non-core central region. Current statistics show there are more than 60k properties in the pipeline of which >2/3 are in non-core central region, and of which 1/2 has not been sold yet (means a lot of supply here?). I am forecasting that by 2015 100k properties will have newly TOP from now or still in the pipeline of which >85% are in non-core central region.

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Jan 30, 2011

Upgrading to private home? Wait a bit, says Mah

By Amresh Gunasingham

http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20110129/mahbowtan-st.jpg 'Housing prices are rather high now... if you wait for a while, you might find more affordable properties,' Mr Mah was quoted in the paper as saying. -- ST PHOTO: DESMOND LIM


IF YOU are a Housing Board flat owner looking to upgrade to a private property, wait a little longer before signing on the dotted line.
This was the advice from Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan in an interview published in the Chinese daily Lianhe Wanbao on Saturday.
'Housing prices are rather high now... if you wait for a while, you might find more affordable properties,' Mr Mah was quoted in the paper as saying.
Serious home buyers should be patient as he expects interest rates and the supply of private properties to rise soon, and both these factors should help to curb the steady trend of rising prices.
'When that happens, you will be thankful that you didn't buy right now!' he quipped.
The property market hit new highs last year, fuelled by strong demand from cash-rich buyers, low interest rates and strong economic growth.
Read the full story in The Sunday Times. (http://www.straitstimes.com/News/Home/Story/STIStory_629917.html)

[azeoprop]

'When that happens, you will be thankful that you didn't buy right now!' he quipped.
:scared-1:

[hyenergix]

MBT has access to many secret data and he has to be extra careful with what he says since election is very near. Better to believe him this time round...

[land118]

MBT tis time really wack Agents, Developers jilakx2. All out to cool the mkt!

[amk]

'When that happens, you will be thankful that you didn't buy right now!' he quipped.
:scared-1:

MBT is addressing specifically to HDB upgraders ? :scared-5: For a minister to come out and say something like that ....

[med80009]

Maybe just a scare tactic to cool the market further. "cooling measure" no. 5, scare the sh*t out of the upgraders ;)

[rattydrama]

MBT is addressing specifically to HDB upgraders ? :scared-5: For a minister to come out and say something like that ....

This is because there are indeed up graders wanting to cash out from HDB to pocket the cash. That is why he is worried that they are not able to service the loan.

Maybe that is his statistics?

He win big this time cos the market has now been chilled suddenly. I dont think need further cooling measures.

Just like I predicted the HDB value will only come come down +/_ 5% in Jan 2011 around Aug 2010.......

[Antione]

I felt it is more like getting those who already has a house to stop buying multiple houses for investment and let those, especially PRs, who are out-beat by non-PRs and currently paying high rent through their nose, a chance to buy their house. PRs are typically not on expatriate terms and don't have rental allowances. Simply, there isn't enough built, and building takes time.

[kane]

soon to be married couples can look forward to a cheaper BTO in their next launch perhaps? And then the rest of the market can take its queue from there.