View Full Version : 8,430 new private homes set to be completed in 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,423941-1296331140,00.html?
Published January 29, 2011
8,430 new private homes set to be completed in 2011
URA data also shows nearly half of them will be in the core central region
By UMA SHANKARI
CLOSE to half of the estimated 8,430 new private homes that are slated to be completed in 2011 will be in the upmarket core central region, according to fresh data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday.
The government agency has also bumped up its estimate for the projected supply of private homes due to be completed this year by 25 per cent from three months ago. In October 2010, URA estimated that 6,766 new private homes will be completed in 2011.
Sources told BT that URA has been surveying developers more closely over the last few months in a bid to compile more accurate pipeline supply figures. The agency computes the estimated supply of private housing units in the pipeline through a quarterly survey of developers.
In response to a query from BT, URA said it will continue to work closely with developers to ensure that they submit up-to-date estimations of the expected completion dates of their projects.
'URA's survey of the developers' completion (for 2011) is only starting to increase. The increase from Q3 2010's forecast for 2011 completions to Q4 2010's forecast is a significant 25 per cent. Over the next few quarters, we expect to see further upward revisions,' said Ku Swee Yong, chief executive of real estate firm International Property Advisor.
Looking at the latest completion estimates, analysts once again warned that home-buyers need to brace themselves for a very large supply of private residential units due to be completed each year from 2011 to 2015.
URA currently estimates that 8,116 units will be completed in 2012; 17,111 units in 2013; 17,421 units in 2014; and 13,453 units in 2015.
In fact, 2010's number of newly completed private homes, which stands at around 10,400 units, is already higher than the historical average annual increase in housing supply of around 6,400 private units over the last decade, Mr Ku pointed out. For 2011, a total of 3,874 homes will be added to the housing supply in the core central region, which includes the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove. This will make up 46 per cent of the islandwide housing supply of 8,430 new private homes.
Another 2,265 private homes will be completed in the rest of central region, while in the outside central region, 2,291 units will be completed this year.
URA also said that as at the end of Q4 2010, there was a total supply of 65,699 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline. Of these, 32,776 units were still unsold.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2011-01-29/umsupply.jpg
URA currently estimates that 8,116 units will be completed in 2012; 17,111 units in 2013; 17,421 units in 2014; and 13,453 units in 2015.
In fact, 2010's number of newly completed private homes, which stands at around 10,400 units, is already higher than the historical average annual increase in housing supply of around 6,400 private units over the last decade...
:doh: :banghead:
URA currently estimates that 8,116 units will be completed in 2012; 17,111 units in 2013; 17,421 units in 2014; and 13,453 units in 2015.
In fact, 2010's number of newly completed private homes, which stands at around 10,400 units, is already higher than the historical average annual increase in housing supply of around 6,400 private units over the last decade...
:doh: :banghead:
The numbers have to be pushed forward by 0.5-1 year as developers usually completes their projects slightly earlier. Some already started demolishing the existing buildings even before launching the projects. The 2015 figures are less certain because I think the projects may not even be launched yet and developers can delay them further if market is not good.
Sources told BT that URA has been surveying developers more closely over the last few months in a bid to compile more accurate pipeline supply figures.
It's about time! :doh:
Let's look at some facts.
1. We are underestimating the impact of all the enbloc /collective sales and displacements. According to DTZ report, there were 34 sales in 2010 totalling S$1.5bn. This does no take into account the number which have already or are about to take place in 2011. Assuming there are on average fifty units per en-bloc deal, you have to look at an average of 1,700 displacements which will either go into purchasing a new ppty or into rental mkt.
2. Next, from the statistics dept, the increase in population is shown as below
Date Total Population('000) Singapore Residents('000)
2009 4,987.6 3,733.9
2010 5,076.7 3,771.7
(Census)
For 2010 alone, the number of SG residents increased by 37.8K. If this is repeated in 2011, what is the paltry increase in 8,400 units?
Its not just about liquidity driving the market but when you have super cash rich displacements from en-bloc sales and SG residents increasing every year, something has got to give.
Its not just about liquidity driving the market but when you have super cash rich displacements from en-bloc sales and SG residents increasing every year, something has got to give.
Er, I think something gave liao. Just look at the stats from 2009-Now. We are probably looking at a period of consolidation either from market forces or from the sheer will of our government to break the current momentum.
Wild Falcon
31-01-11, 09:45
I guess it depends on the immigration policies going forward. But the TOP party is getting near... look at the no. of completions in various districts. CCR which is only 10% of the land area has like 45+% of the completions - extremely unbalanced. Imagine how cluttered, built up and crowded it shall be.
Er, I think something gave liao. Just look at the stats from 2009-Now. We are probably looking at a period of consolidation either from market forces or from the sheer will of our government to break the current momentum.
I guess it depends on the immigration policies going forward. But the TOP party is getting near... look at the no. of completions in various districts. CCR which is only 10% of the land area has like 45+% of the completions - extremely unbalanced. Imagine how cluttered, built up and crowded it shall be.
Immigration is a sensitive topic but one that I think SG cannot do without if we want to tout ourselves as a 'regional hub', be it financial, high-tech, biomedical and now IR. With fresh immigration comes fresh capital inflows.
You may think that we are going into a period of consolidation from all the 'news' and 'reports' but that may just be making sure you only 'hear the good stuff'. The fact is that we cannot do without immigration. It will continue to be downplayed but the ramifications will be seen in our housing mkt and infrstructure.
Also do not underestimate the en-bloc displacement effect. Just in Jan 2011 alone, I am already seeing an en-bloc deal every other day. Displacees armed with a large sum of cash will prove to be an unanticipated force.
People will tend to congregate into popular areas. The good thing about SG is that it is small and commuting from one end to another is not such a harrowing proposition. However, there will also be 'sweet spots', so overbuilding and congeston is inevitable. That's where long-sighted town planning has to come in.
proud owner
31-01-11, 10:19
Let's look at some facts.
1. We are underestimating the impact of all the enbloc /collective sales and displacements. According to DTZ report, there were 34 sales in 2010 totalling S$1.5bn. This does no take into account the number which have already or are about to take place in 2011. Assuming there are on average fifty units per en-bloc deal, you have to look at an average of 1,700 displacements which will either go into purchasing a new ppty or into rental mkt.
2. Next, from the statistics dept, the increase in population is shown as below
Date Total Population('000) Singapore Residents('000)
2009 4,987.6 3,733.9
2010 5,076.7 3,771.7
(Census)
For 2010 alone, the number of SG residents increased by 37.8K. If this is repeated in 2011, what is the paltry increase in 8,400 units?
Its not just about liquidity driving the market but when you have super cash rich displacements from en-bloc sales and SG residents increasing every year, something has got to give.
first of all ... alot of singaporeans have more than 1 prop
if enbloc they can move to the other prop .. no need to buy / rent ...
also once enbloc ... many will straight away hit another unit ...
so i really doubt the coming TOP's can be absorbed
first of all ... alot of singaporeans have more than 1 prop
if enbloc they can move to the other prop .. no need to buy / rent ...
also once enbloc ... many will straight away hit another unit ...
so i really doubt the coming TOP's can be absorbed
So what are they going to do with all the spare cash? FD with measly returns? If I get $2 or $3mil, what's a $600K MM apt?.
Secondly, en-bloc is a lengthy process with uncertainties. A wise displacee may not want to commit on a new unit until the money is in the bank.
Let's look at some facts.
1. We are underestimating the impact of all the enbloc /collective sales and displacements. According to DTZ report, there were 34 sales in 2010 totalling S$1.5bn. This does no take into account the number which have already or are about to take place in 2011. Assuming there are on average fifty units per en-bloc deal, you have to look at an average of 1,700 displacements which will either go into purchasing a new ppty or into rental mkt.
2. Next, from the statistics dept, the increase in population is shown as below
Date Total Population('000) Singapore Residents('000)
2009 4,987.6 3,733.9
2010 5,076.7 3,771.7
(Census)
For 2010 alone, the number of SG residents increased by 37.8K. If this is repeated in 2011, what is the paltry increase in 8,400 units?
Its not just about liquidity driving the market but when you have super cash rich displacements from en-bloc sales and SG residents increasing every year, something has got to give.
Assume each unit has 3 family members, then 37.8/3 = 12.6 k new units needed, but these comprises private and HDB. Because only about 20% stay in private (20% of 12.6k units = 2.5k units) , then private units are over-supplied (8.4k supply versus 2.5k demand), at least for the SG residents.
The rest of the private unit demand has to come from immigrants. Crunching more immigration numbers assuming steady-state, you will realise that there is a real over-supply of private units in 2H 2012 onwards.
Many people who are buying mass market condos now e.g. at Lakeside, Bedok and Sembawang are HDB upgraders and they will rent their HDB in a few years' time to support their purchase. This means that the mass market condo demand we are seeing now is not really demand for more space but rather an upgrading in life-style, which is only sustainable if we have enough immigrants to rent their HDBs.
proud owner
31-01-11, 10:36
So what are they going to do with all the spare cash? FD with measly returns? If I get $2 or $3mil, what's a $600K MM apt?.
Secondly, en-bloc is a lengthy process with uncertainties. A wise displacee may not want to commit on a new unit until the money is in the bank.
thats what i am trying to say ...
those from enbloced projects would have no problem finding alternative housing ... they need not buy NOW or RENT NOW as they probably already have another unit .. or would have bought when the enbloc took place ...
so those upcoming TOPs wil have problem finding renters ...
Many people who are buying mass market condos now e.g. at Lakeside, Bedok and Sembawang are HDB upgraders and they will rent their HDB in a few years' time to support their purchase.
I think this particular HDB post MOP private pty ownership policy will be reviewed in the future with hugh implication for the market. After the election of course....
I think this particular HDB post MOP private pty ownership policy will be reviewed in the future with hugh implication for the market. After the election of course....
This will kill a lot of (vocal) HDB upgraders and release a large number of re-sale HDBs into the market when it is needed least in the next 1-3 years. Highly unlikely measure...
Assume each unit has 3 family members, then 37.8/3 = 12.6 k new units needed, but these comprises private and HDB. Because only about 20% stay in private (20% of 12.6k units = 2.5k units) , then private units are over-supplied (8.4k supply versus 2.5k demand), at least for the SG residents.
The rest of the private unit demand has to come from immigrants. Crunching more immigration numbers assuming steady-state, you will realise that there is a real over-supply of private units in 2H 2012 onwards.
Many people who are buying mass market condos now e.g. at Lakeside, Bedok and Sembawang are HDB upgraders and they will rent their HDB in a few years' time to support their purchase. This means that the mass market condo demand we are seeing now is not really demand for more space but rather an upgrading in life-style, which is only sustainable if we have enough immigrants to rent their HDBs.
If you are talking about fresh inflows renting HDB etc, then you will have to look at total population growth which is 89.1K. Hotel rooms will probably not count as transient population such as tourists are excluded. NOTE that the population count only includes non-residents who stay for 1 yr or more. For non-residents which are here for 6-9 mths, they are NOT included in the count and there may be a much higher number availabl to rent yr HDB or apt for the short term stay.
According to SG statistics definition :
Census Coverage
All Singapore residents with valid local addresses are included in the Census population count. Non-resident population with valid passes/permits and stay in Singapore for 1 year or more are also included in the count. Transient population such as tourists are excluded.
thats what i am trying to say ...
those from enbloced projects would have no problem finding alternative housing ... they need not buy NOW or RENT NOW as they probably already have another unit .. or would have bought when the enbloc took place ...
so those upcoming TOPs wil have problem finding renters ...
That is why I brought in the statistic numbers and population growth to support take-up rate.
If you had $3mil in the bank and had a choice of putting $600K in a S$ FD or buy a completed just TOPed MM which has just been rented out @ $1.5K a mth for 2 years, which would you choose?
proud owner
31-01-11, 11:05
That is why I brought in the statistic numbers and population growth to support take-up rate.
If you had $3mil in the bank and had a choice of putting $600K in a S$ FD or buy a completed just TOPed MM which has just been rented out @ $1.5K a mth for 2 years, which would you choose?
i would buy prop ... measures or not
but i wont buy MM to begin with
i would buy prop ... measures or not
but i wont buy MM to begin with
haha... gd one !:cheers6: So would I. but I just used the MM scenario due to its affordability factor.
This will kill a lot of (vocal) HDB upgraders and release a large number of re-sale HDBs into the market when it is needed least in the next 1-3 years. Highly unlikely measure...
I am not sure it's unlikely, but agreed that this is a very bitter pill. But if you are the government looking at a trend whereby HDB hoarding is significant enough to distort supply/demand dynamics you might be forced to move on the issue.....
You want hard numbers, here they are :
Total population (SG residents and NR who stay >1 yr) = 5.077m
Average no. per household = 3.5
Average no. of households : 1.45mil
Total no. of pte properties (landed + condo) as at Q3 2010= 256.5K
Total no. of HDB flats-estimate :
Approximately 1,038,473 flats
As of 2008, the total number of flats since HDB’s inception in 1960 was already 990,573 flats. Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) consequently built more flats to accommodate the rising demand for the years 2009 until 2011. By the end of 2011, HDB projects that it would have built 50,000 more flats in different states. As of now, more or less 47,900 flats have been launched by HDB.
Calculations
Total no. of households of 1450K
Less : Total units available for housing = 1039K + 257K = 1296K
Nett deficit = 154K households (stay where ?????)
TOTAL no. of new supply coming on-stream for pte properties UPTO 2015 = 65K
There is still a 154K-65K = 89K deficit (met by HDB???) and that is assuming ZERO population growth from 2011 to 2015.
I guess it depends on the immigration policies going forward. But the TOP party is getting near... look at the no. of completions in various districts. CCR which is only 10% of the land area has like 45+% of the completions - extremely unbalanced. Imagine how cluttered, built up and crowded it shall be.
and there are still many unsold units in CCR...with the surplus, buyers have plenty (maybe too many) of choices...
bargain hunter
31-01-11, 12:09
but if your calculation is correct, where are these pple now? all homeless?
You want hard numbers, here they are :
Total population (SG residents and NR who stay >1 yr) = 5.077m
Average no. per household = 3.5
Average no. of households : 1.45mil
Total no. of pte properties (landed + condo) as at Q3 2010= 256.5K
Total no. of HDB flats-estimate :
Approximately 1,038,473 flats
As of 2008, the total number of flats since HDB’s inception in 1960 was already 990,573 flats. Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) consequently built more flats to accommodate the rising demand for the years 2009 until 2011. By the end of 2011, HDB projects that it would have built 50,000 more flats in different states. As of now, more or less 47,900 flats have been launched by HDB.
Calculations
Total no. of households of 1450K
Less : Total units available for housing = 1039K + 257K = 1296K
Nett deficit = 154K households (stay where ?????)
TOTAL no. of new supply coming on-stream for pte properties UPTO 2015 = 65K
There is still a 154K-65K = 89K deficit (met by HDB???) and that is assuming ZERO population growth from 2011 to 2015.
thomastansb
31-01-11, 12:10
If I have 2 or 3 million, I am not dumb. So i won't buy MM. I will probably look further than 1 year of rental.
So what are they going to do with all the spare cash? FD with measly returns? If I get $2 or $3mil, what's a $600K MM apt?.
Secondly, en-bloc is a lengthy process with uncertainties. A wise displacee may not want to commit on a new unit until the money is in the bank.
thomastansb
31-01-11, 12:11
Don't see eye to eye with you except on this. MM are total craps. Waste of time, waste of $, waste of land. Especially those below 400 sf dog holes.
i would buy prop ... measures or not
but i wont buy MM to begin with
but if your calculation is correct, where are these pple now? all homeless?
Gd question....Worker dorms, service apartments, hostels etc but even so, I don't know whether all these have capacity for 154K households. Most foreign workers are packed into one small room or apt so perhaps this may account for the deficit. If you look at my assumptions, its 3.5pax per household which means 539K pax.
Scary number huh?
You want hard numbers, here they are :
There is still a 154K-65K = 89K deficit (met by HDB???) and that is assuming ZERO population growth from 2011 to 2015.
You need to account for domestic helpers staying within household, and foreign workers living in domitories, students in hostels....etc. Their numbers are not small......
bargain hunter
31-01-11, 12:22
my guess is there is a mismatch somewhere. it is OCR which needs massive completions currently but that will only happen from 2012 to 2015. there are massive completions now in CCR but few who need housing can afford it.
however, i also think that because the numbers are so big, a slight 2 to 3% error in any of the numbers causes a huge swing in the no. of houses required or oversupplied. :scared-4:
Gd question....Worker dorms, service apartments, hostels etc but even so, I don't know whether all these have capacity for 154K households. If you look at my assumptions, its 3.5pax per household which means 539K pax.
Scary number huh?
If I have 2 or 3 million, I am not dumb. So i won't buy MM. I will probably look further than 1 year of rental.
I have same thinking as you. I was using the MM as a hypothetical example as its the most 'affordable' in terms of absolute quantum.
I was also talking in the context of a multiple property owning individual (as pointed out by PO) who has recently come into a pile of money from a successful en-bloc. Once your property portfolio dimishes, the 'itch' to to replenish is high when coupled with the lack of good alternative investments with a reasonable return.
bargain hunter
31-01-11, 12:28
yup. a total of 150k would already be a 3% difference in a 5m population. i think the total number of pple who do not stay in hdb or private ppties is larger than this.
You need to account for domestic helpers staying within household, and foreign workers living in domitories, students in hostels....etc. Their numbers are not small......
You need to account for domestic helpers staying within household, and foreign workers living in domitories, students in hostels....etc. Their numbers are not small......
For domestic maids, it would already have been taken into account during the census study and included in the average household number. If they are staying with the household, it means they also occupying HDB or pte property units. The exceptions would be the non-stay in maids.
Definitely, foreign workers and students would fall into the 154K households but that amounts to about 539K people !!!!
My assumption is no population increase. If our population continues to grow at 89K pax per year, where will we house the increase?
May like it is HDB which needs massive completions but because of BTO will only happen from 2013 to 2015? Those who suppose to buy HDB flats go for OCR condos and fueling quick rise there? Once HDB flats supply increased by a lot, the demand for OCR will drop. By 2015, you will see huge effects on OCR condos? CCR condos are for store of value by the rich and for renting to expats (real "expats", not those zero housing allowance "expats" or <$4k housing allowance expats whose company has increasingly replaced with a 50% additional housing pay into their pocket and they choose whatever housing needs they want - which is to buy for themselves than rent (obviously)!). This trend means there is decreasing demand for rental from mid-level expats who traditionally would have rented OCR private properties. They are the ones also buying from 2009-2010 but once their buying are met, OCR properties prices direction is a big unknown going forward. :cheers1:
my guess is there is a mismatch somewhere. it is OCR which needs massive completions currently but that will only happen from 2012 to 2015. there are massive completions now in CCR but few who need housing can afford it.
however, i also think that because the numbers are so big, a slight 2 to 3% error in any of the numbers causes a huge swing in the no. of houses required or oversupplied. :scared-4:
proud owner
31-01-11, 12:58
lets use all the members on condosingapore as a sample ...
everyone be honest and state the number of properties they own ..
and if we are forced to vacate the unit we are staying in now .. do we have another to move in to ? without buying another or renting ...
i believe the number of YES, NO PROBLEM ... will scare you ...
and using this sample .. we can make some assumptions and we will be able to 'agar-ation ' will the up coming projects Top-ing be taken up thru rental ....
No lah, so many also useless because all rented out and can't evacuate the tenants since tied down by 2 years lease expiring at various different times and they have option to extend another year. :D
lets use all the members on condosingapore as a sample ...
everyone be honest and state the number of properties they own ..
and if we are forced to vacate the unit we are staying in now .. do we have another to move in to ? without buying another or renting ...
i believe the number of YES, NO PROBLEM ... will scare you ...
and using this sample .. we can make some assumptions and we will be able to 'agar-ation ' will the up coming projects Top-ing be taken up thru rental ....
bargain hunter
31-01-11, 13:18
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/2954397/for-rent-ardmore-ii
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/2873194/for-rent-ardmore-ii
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/2749824/for-rent-ardmore-ii
For domestic maids, it would already have been taken into account during the census study and included in the average household number.
Noted. But can you really apply the 3.5 avg household size to our whole population? Average household size is calculated based only on resident household = Citizen+PR+maid. According to 2009 stats, resident household is about 1.12m x 3.5 = 3.9m people. Citizen+PR =3.7m, + Maid =0.2m.
But I can't really deduce anything from the balance 1.1m foreigners. Maybe need more breakdown from our Census report.....
thomastansb
31-01-11, 13:36
But D10 has never been a rental haven to begin with. The rental is always 2 to 3%. 3.5% at best.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/2954397/for-rent-ardmore-ii
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/2873194/for-rent-ardmore-ii
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/2749824/for-rent-ardmore-ii
bargain hunter
31-01-11, 13:48
looks like now is down to the low end of 2%.
But D10 has never been a rental haven to begin with. The rental is always 2 to 3%. 3.5% at best.
Noted. But can you really apply the 3.5 avg household size to our whole population? Average household size is calculated based only on resident household = Citizen+PR+maid. According to 2009 stats, resident household is about 1.12m x 3.5 = 3.9m people. Citizen+PR =3.7m, + Maid =0.2m.
But I can't really deduce anything from the balance 1.1m foreigners. Maybe need more breakdown from our Census report.....
Point taken but my view is that the average household size for lower wage foreign workers (i hate to use the distinction) would be much higher than 3.5 but for white collar, it would be lower. Most of the professional expat workers that I know of tend tend to live singly or as a couple. They rarely bring their whole family over unless they have a very generous housing allowance or is really necessary. I haven't really got the time to dig deeper into the stats so I guess it still a moot point.
Whateve the case, it is the latter category that should be of most relevance to this discussion as these white collar expats would be the ones most likely to mop up the supply of private condos/apts be it via rental or purchase.
Anyway, the whole point of my post is to try to depict a more balanced view of the situation. Yes, there are all these scary shit reports of supply overhang but has anyone ever reported the demand dynamics? Furthermore, there are wild cards from the en-bloc displacements which I don't think analysts have accounted for and should not be underestimated.
I leave it to you to decide which side looks scarier or rosier depending on your property positions.
rattydrama
31-01-11, 19:07
Thanks for sharing the data.
I think the point is the property price has went up by 17.6% in 2010. It will be a double edge sword if the price continues to escalate without control in 2011. The government would not want it to happen in view of the noise from the ground & the coming election.
On many occasions, MBT emphasized price should move up slowly and steadily.
It is time for consolidation in my view. If you let go now, will you be able to buy back? At some point you still need to keep good units for rental.
I also notice that the location of recent land sales are less than desired. Might not be ideal for investment. So perhaps the price will go down but this might not happen for existing units bearing good locations be it OCR or CCR.
You want hard numbers, here they are :
Total population (SG residents and NR who stay >1 yr) = 5.077m
Average no. per household = 3.5
Average no. of households : 1.45mil
Total no. of pte properties (landed + condo) as at Q3 2010= 256.5K
Total no. of HDB flats-estimate :
Approximately 1,038,473 flats
As of 2008, the total number of flats since HDB’s inception in 1960 was already 990,573 flats. Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) consequently built more flats to accommodate the rising demand for the years 2009 until 2011. By the end of 2011, HDB projects that it would have built 50,000 more flats in different states. As of now, more or less 47,900 flats have been launched by HDB.
Calculations
Total no. of households of 1450K
Less : Total units available for housing = 1039K + 257K = 1296K
Nett deficit = 154K households (stay where ?????)
TOTAL no. of new supply coming on-stream for pte properties UPTO 2015 = 65K
There is still a 154K-65K = 89K deficit (met by HDB???) and that is assuming ZERO population growth from 2011 to 2015.
Guess a lot of married couples still living with parents lor. :D
but if your calculation is correct, where are these pple now? all homeless?
rattydrama
31-01-11, 22:19
Guess a lot of married couples still living with parents lor. :D
means when the price is right, they will buy...
Thanks for sharing the data.
I think the point is the property price has went up by 17.6% in 2010. It will be a double edge sword if the price continues to escalate without control in 2011. The government would not want it to happen in view of the noise from the ground & the coming election.
On many occasions, MBT emphasized price should move up slowly and steadily.
It is time for consolidation in my view. If you let go now, will you be able to buy back? At some point you still need to keep good units for rental.
I also notice that the location of recent land sales are less than desired. Might not be ideal for investment. So perhaps the price will go down but this might not happen for existing units bearing good locations be it OCR or CCR.
Glad to share such stuff but I think you miss my point. What I am saying is that the underlying driver is still population growth which is not under the control of MBT. This is immigration policy. If you look at my earlier posts, my view is that immigration is still necessary to sustain SG's aspiration to be the key 'HUB' in Asia. You are also forgetting that the govt is strongly encouraging citizens to have more kids. With greater economic prosperity, more couples will be keen to have more kids. So besides foreigner inflows, there is also organic population growth.
Hence, you can throw all kinds of measures but if housing is not sufficient to meet population needs, simple demand/supply economics will come into play and prices will inevitaby rise. With floods in Australia, unrest in middle east and Europe still in the economic doldrums, do you really think we can stem the flood?
Releasing more land for development could be a solution but there is a lag effect before such units can actually come on-line.
More fuel for thought....
Business Times - 01 Feb 2011
Foreign employment up again in 2010
By CHUANG PECK MING (SINGAPORE) After dipping in 2009, foreign employment picked up again last year as a strong economic recovery churned out more jobs than could be filled.
Preliminary estimates released yesterday by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) show overall employment rose 30,600 in the final quarter of 2010 - more than in the previous two quarters (20,500 in Q3 and 24,900 in Q2).
For the full year, employment grew 112,500 - three times higher than in 2009.
Almost equal numbers of jobs were created for Singaporeans and foreigners last year, with employment for the latter bouncing back from a decline of 4,200 jobs in 2009 to a rise of 58,300.
Local employment jumped 54,200, exceeding the 41,800 gains in 2009.
As at Dec 31, 2010, locals accounted for 64.2 per cent of the total employment of 3.1 million. Foreigners made up the remaining 35.8 per cent of the share.
Excluding foreign maids, foreigners' slice of the employment cake was 31.4 per cent, up from 30.7 per cent in December 2009.
Foreign employment increased last year despite the move to tighten the inflow of foreign workers.
But Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong told reporters yesterday the increase was still below the 80,000 projected - and it was also lower than in 2008, when foreign employment surged a record 156,900.
Mr Gan, who was presenting certificates to the first batch of trainees who completed the Heartland Retail Workforce Upskilling Initiative training, said the government was making progress in encouraging employers to reduce reliance on foreign workers.
'We have to press on with the effort,' he said.
The unemployment rate edged up from a seasonally-adjusted 2.1 per cent in September to 2.2 per cent in December last year, but this was still lower than the 2.3 per cent rate in 2009.
'It would be surprising to see the unemployment rate go any lower than it currently is,' said Lynne Ng, recruiting firm Adecco Southeast Asia's regional director. 'The 2.2 per cent average across all four quarters in 2010 is already an enviable rate and one that demonstrates how quickly Singapore has been able to return to full employment over the past 12 months.'
And the jobs market here has stayed tight, according to Credit Suisse bank's economist Wu Kun Lung, who pointed out that job vacancies in Q3 rose to their highest level since 2009.
Mr Gan said if the economy stays on track to hit the 4-6 per cent growth projected for 2011, the labour market will remain tight.
'Surveys from the private sector indicate that job growth is likely to pick up further, going into 2011,' Mr Wu added. 'We expect the services sector to continue to do well in 2011, reflecting growth in the tourism-related sectors, as well as business and financial services.'
The services sector - which added 109,500 jobs, up from 55,600 in 2009 - accounted for the bulk of last year's employment gains.
Employment in the sector jumped 29,400 in the last quarter alone, up from 21,300 in Q3 2010.
Employment in the construction sector, which rose 25,100 in 2009, saw modest gains of 2,300 last year - largely because of the completion of several large building projects and fewer coming on-stream.
Manufacturing employment fell 2,700 in 2010, after a 43,700 drop in 2009.
More fuel for thought....
MY thought is :::
when erection is over, the foreign talent tap will be lossened..more FT will come in..let face it...
the FT portion is a easy way for employers and garmen to solve alot of problems...(who want to solve big problem while getting high pay and yet there is an easy soln around:D )....last 2 weeks saw a sunday time report on FT that apply for PR but not successful..one of the eg is a guy holds a quite high post (I think is a senior position in a company in charge of financail matters)with a post graduate degree(from dont know which Uni forget liao) and getting a less than 4K monthly salary...
Imagine a company which looks at profit and bottomline will select the SO CALLed RIGHT CANDIdate...is that a reason why that is a widespread view in forums alike that having first class country but third class pay all about? buying power will become weaker and this will hit the low and middle class people the most but not those top few percents of citizen(incl owners of business who benefit from this)...
My another thought is why FT can survive on this low pay but not locals?
Is it because of lower expectation of life or their family is not located here and sending the money back from singapore(with its attractive xhange rate)to their family in homtown is more worthwhile? your thought pls...:D
" My another thought is why FT can survive on this low pay but not locals?
Is it because of lower expectation of life or their family is not located here and sending the money back from singapore(with its attractive xhange rate)to their family in homtown is more worthwhile? your thought pls...:D "
Different cost of living!
My another thought is why FT can survive on this low pay but not locals?
Is it because of lower expectation of life or their family is not located here and sending the money back from singapore(with its attractive xhange rate)to their family in homtown is more worthwhile? your thought pls...:D
How much does a construction labourer earns? Last I heard is $2/hour. or about $800/month?
Can still survive because thrifty, don't spend and have left over to remit to India. Where they can build a house.
How much does a construction labourer earns? Last I heard is $2/hour. or about $800/month?
Can still survive because thrifty, don't spend and have left over to remit to India. Where they can build a house.
Meanwhile, in S'pore, the people who earn 10x more than him live in MM units and have to slog for life to clear the mortgage ;)
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