View Full Version : Is Now a Good Time to Buy?
Hi all to the experts here!
Just wondering what your thoughts are on this? Be it against and for. And if you could explain why?
Thanks again!
DingDing
devilplate
28-02-11, 08:56
from super bullish to slight bullish to neutral here
downgraded to neutral after latest cooling measures and duno whether got any more overly drastic measures in future anot tat might kill the market unnaturally
stalingrad
28-02-11, 09:01
a good time to buy is when no one comes to this website to gossip about real estate. with so many posting bs news and personal opinions, the market is still hot and overvalued. so, wait for a while for the market to genuinely cool off.
devilplate
28-02-11, 09:04
a good time to buy is when no one comes to this website to gossip about real estate. with so many posting bs news and personal opinions, the market is still hot and overvalued. so, wait for a while for the market to genuinely cool off.
i tink u overestimate the power of this forum?
till date 16313 members only...
just realised can read postings without registering/log in......:confused:
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 09:07
Yes, if no more measures, prices should hold firm until interest rates start going up.
Transaction volume will be low for a while, especially in the resale market where there is a great dislocation in buyer and seller expectations.
New launch will continue to flow as developers need to clear there pipeline and buyer think they can hold for TOP and avoid SSD at the same time.
But if there is one more round of drastic measures (more SSD/BSD, limitation on property ownership, etc) then we could see some downside in prices, coupled with increasing interest rate and a diving stock market then prices will have to drop.
Decision on buying depends on whether you buy for own stay or investment. Own stay the most important thing is your must like the unit/project. Pricing is a secondary consideration. Life is short, so live a little. If for investment, don't bother to enter now unless you getting a great deal of discount.
:2cents:
a good time to buy is when no one comes to this website to gossip about real estate. with so many posting bs news and personal opinions, the market is still hot and overvalued. so, wait for a while for the market to genuinely cool off.
Noticed lower postings recently in forum... very much different from a few months back...:2cents:
stalingrad
28-02-11, 09:09
i tink u overestimate the power of this forum?
till date 16313 members only...
I remember that at late 2008 and early 2009, there was only one posting on the whole website every two or three days. that turned out to be the super buying opportunity.
my position is very clear, off loading still
I believe govt is taking proactive measures to cool the market from both demand and supply side. Developers are giving discount in the form of voucher, like Cape is 4 or 5% voucher.
If the market is heating, then more herbal tea is expected. But it defintely will not crash unless something drastic happen, like flow of hot monies and crude.
Spoke to quite a number of agents, the secondary market is now dead.
The other issue may have to look up is the pent up demand if the market is cool for too long of the time.
Decision on buying depends on whether you buy for own stay or investment. Own stay the most important thing is your must like the unit/project. Pricing is a secondary consideration. Life is short, so live a little. If for investment, don't bother to enter now unless you getting a great deal of discount.
:2cents:
Fully agreed.
For your own roof, follow where your heart goes.
For investment, can wait.
:2cents:
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 09:11
i tink u overestimate the power of this forum?
till date 16313 members only...
16k members. Based on my observation in the short period i have joined only 30 member frequently post, myself included. Hardly a force to be reckon with.:cool:
But few days back was having a discussion with a couple of member about how our conversation here will potentially influence national policy:doh: :doh:
Talk about feeling self important.
Let's face it guys, we are really not that important, just a bunch of guy/girls bored at work/home.
devilplate
28-02-11, 09:12
Noticed lower postings recently in forum... very much different from a few months back...:2cents:
it was even more quiet immediately after august cooling measures....this forum still quite hot after latest killer measures...:)
Fully agreed.
For your own roof, follow where your heart goes.
For investment, can wait.
:2cents: Agree, if you are buying for investment and only can afford 1 more unit, then better wait unless u stumble on a real good deal. For somewhere to stay, if u find some place u like, well, it ok, since property is a cycle..., even if price drop...u won't feel so much pain as it is a roof over your head anyway...
devilplate
28-02-11, 09:15
my position is very clear, off loading still
I believe govt is taking proactive measures to cool the market from both demand and supply side. Developers are giving discount in the form of voucher, like Cape is 4 or 5% voucher.
If the market is heating, then more herbal tea is expected. But it defintely will not crash unless something drastic happen, like flow of hot monies and crude.
Spoke to quite a number of agents, the secondary market is now dead.
The other issue may have to look up is the pent up demand if the market is cool for too long of the time.
pent up demand will create a heat up later on and leads to herbal tea....weather aso getting hot liao...lol:D
it was even more quiet immediately after august cooling measures....this forum still quite hot after latest killer measures...:)
still quite hot? Tot hot becos of some debate over CCR vs OCR or decision to buy millions dollar views/radio waves???? :D :D :D
Otherwise, not much of actitivies wor...:2cents:
stalingrad
28-02-11, 09:16
16k members. Based on my observation in the short period i have joined only 30 member frequently post, myself included. Hardly a force to be reckon with.:cool:
But few days back was having a discussion with a couple of member about how our conversation here will potentially influence national policy:doh: :doh:
Talk about feeling self important.
Let's face it guys, we are really not that important, just a bunch of guy/girls bored at work/home.
I know we are unimportant. but that is beside the point. The point is that when the 30 or so regular forummers stop coming here to kill time, sentiments would be at the nadir. And that is the cue to buy.
devilplate
28-02-11, 09:19
I remember that at late 2008 and early 2009, there was only one posting on the whole website every two or three days. that turned out to be the super buying opportunity.
forum can be a good indicator but definitely not tat influential:)
those who knows how to visit forums to check out info etc r considered vy savvy oredi....will they enter the market by listening just to BS? i dun tink so....hehe
i wud say those buy into overpriced projects like last phase greenwich/manhattan r the less savvy ones which r potentially influenced by the agts/showflat/advertisements
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 09:20
Haha I don't know la... :doh:
Really hope I know though....
But I just think a forum is not really a good gauge for a whole country's property sentiment.
For all we know when all the regulars stop posting is when they are all out hunting for house. hahaha...
devilplate
28-02-11, 09:25
Haha I don't know la... :doh:
Really hope I know though....
But I just think a forum is not really a good gauge for a whole country's property sentiment.
For all we know when all the regulars stop posting is when they are all out hunting for house. hahaha...
haha...but equipped with ipad/iphone....can post anywhr anytime....recently it becomes my bed time reading liao....haha:D
stalingrad
28-02-11, 09:28
don't believe? go visit the 1st page of the caspian thread. when it was launched, there was only one or two postings on the condo every two or three days in the first few months. No one gave a damn.
If you'd bought at that time, you would be rich today.
I know we are unimportant. but that is beside the point. The point is that when the 30 or so regular forummers stop coming here to kill time, sentiments would be at the nadir. And that is the cue to buy.
yeah hor, where is kingkong?
:2cents:
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 09:32
don't believe? go visit the 1st page of the caspian thread. when it was launched, there was only one or two postings on the condo every two or three days in the first few months. No one gave a damn.
If you'd bought at that time, you would be rich today.
Don't think that is conclusive evidence though, I see plenty of other condos threads here that hasn't had a post for a over a year (uncompleted ones) Are those all good buys now?
devilplate
28-02-11, 09:32
yeah hor, where is kingkong?
:2cents:
he said he wana kill the forum addiction wor...lol
devilplate
28-02-11, 09:34
don't believe? go visit the 1st page of the caspian thread. when it was launched, there was only one or two postings on the condo every two or three days in the first few months. No one gave a damn.
If you'd bought at that time, you would be rich today.
but i tot caspian project was very very hot during launch??? media reported leh....u dun have to visit this forum to noe the market is hot/cue to buy/cold anot? hehe
i tink recently got more tcss ppl here including myself...:o :D
stalingrad
28-02-11, 09:38
Don't think that is conclusive evidence though, I see plenty of other condos threads here that hasn't had a post for a over a year (uncompleted ones) Are those all good buys now?
speculators focus on new launches. when new launches gather no attention. the market is down in sentiment. that is the time to buy.
just look at tennery and waterfront this and that. When they were launched, there were a deluge of postings. that is a warning sign. Not the time to buy.
I followed my own rule and almost bought caspian. my wife stopped me and now she regrets her bossy way.
stalingrad
28-02-11, 09:40
but i tot caspian project was very very hot during launch??? media reported leh....u dun have to visit this forum to noe the market is hot/cue to buy/cold anot? hehe
i tink recently got more tcss ppl here including myself...:o :D
It was hot among the jurong residents, who are genuine upgraders, but not hot among the forummers who are speculators.
so the lesson is buy when the speculators are no longer interested in the market.
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 09:41
It was hot among the jurong residents, who are genuine upgraders, but not hot among the forummers who are speculators.
so the lesson is buy when the speculators are no longer interested in the market.
Think now speculators are not really interested in the market, is it a good time to buy already?
I'm still trying to get my head around basing my investment decision on a forum.:confused:
phantom_opera
28-02-11, 09:42
Since stalin is so convinced of an impending correction, he should first get rid of his Sim Lian's condo ....
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 09:43
Oh one more thing, are all forummer speculators?
stalingrad
28-02-11, 09:46
Oh one more thing, are all forummer speculators?
many are if not most. devilplante, bargain hunter, teddybear, regulators. all of them have 10 to 20 properties. they are probably good people, but they can be defined as speculators, or just investors.
I have nothing against speculators, it is a honest way to make a living. and they improve market efficiency.
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 09:49
Speculators and investors very different leh.
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
If I have 10-20 properties and can comfortably hold onto all of them then I'll be quite happy.
Don't think speculators intend to hold onto anything.
In March 2009, so many gossips here also but about the property prices crashing further.
Verdict: Prices shot up!
Now so many gossips also and still many saying property prices will crash with latest govt cooling measures.
Verdict: (Wait for 12 months to know!! :p)
Those who say they already know the outcome in future (e.g. market is too hot and overvalued now and wait for a while will genuinely cool off) are playing "god"? :scared-1:
If property prices really drop, then MBT really shot himself in the foot and his policy simply didn't work as he intended as his intention is to "cool the property market so that the property price rise is sustainable over a longer term, not to cause the price to drop" as reported on newspaper. Once property price drop, panic starts to set in and that will be detrimental to Singapore as well as the votes they will get in the coming GE. (Remember, regardless of how much noise we hear about property prices rising too fast etc, these are noises made by the <10% without properties while we have >90% property owners who will vote him & PAP down 4 limps!). :banghead:
a good time to buy is when no one comes to this website to gossip about real estate. with so many posting bs news and personal opinions, the market is still hot and overvalued. so, wait for a while for the market to genuinely cool off.
stalingrad
28-02-11, 09:52
In March 2009, so many gossips here also but about the property prices crashing further.
Verdict: Prices shot up!
Now so many gossips also and still many saying property prices will crash with latest govt cooling measures.
Verdict: (Wait for 12 months to know!! :p)
Don't who say they already know the outcome in future (e.g. market is too hot and overvalued now and wait for a while will genuinely cool off) are playing "god"? :scared-1:
no one is god. but you can play the game by certain rules. when sentiment is at extreme high level, it is better to wait than to buy. when sentiment is terribly weak, it is probably better to buy than to wait.
devilplate
28-02-11, 09:56
no one is god. but you can play the game by certain rules. when sentiment is at extreme high level, it is better to wait than to buy. when sentiment is terribly weak, it is probably better to buy than to wait.
i tot sentiment getting weaker now? i aso turned from bullish to neutral...does tat signifies a buy call?:confused:
phantom_opera
28-02-11, 10:01
LONDON (Reuters) - Northern Rock, the bank nationalised during the credit crisis, is preparing to launch a series of mortgages that offer up to 90 percent of a property's value, the Financial Times reported on Monday.
=> Polarized world
stalingrad
28-02-11, 10:02
i tot sentiment getting weaker now? i aso turned from bullish to neutral...does tat signifies a buy call?:confused:
not weak enough in my view.
looking at how market progress and how developer bid the land, price doesnt seem to be on downward trend. is an evolve market now that set a new high entry level. the force is so strong to withstand two harsh measures and seems like price will only go downhill when something bad happen. even mr quek also predict a slight but not significant drop in price. and mr liew super confident of the market. if big brother poccess so optimistic view do u think price will really drop??? furthermore US seem to be recovery well and it will definitely benefit globally. i think even wait another one year, price will not fall
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 10:05
LONDON (Reuters) - Northern Rock, the bank nationalised during the credit crisis, is preparing to launch a series of mortgages that offer up to 90 percent of a property's value, the Financial Times reported on Monday.
=> Polarized world
No one buying house in UK mah. Ask them come out 20% might as well kill them. They get pay every week, spend all after 4 days and wait eagerly for next pay check. How to save 20%. Even only for a 300k house.
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 10:08
not weak enough in my view.
Ya not weak enough.
I'm just thinking if it will get weaker by itself or need one more measure to make it weak.
I'm still looking for bargains but they are hard to come by.
Recently got someone at Tribeca asking 1.1mil for one bedder when everyone else asking 1.25mil and up. Never call agent but suspect it's fish exercise.
phantom_opera
28-02-11, 10:08
Sentiment will remain bullish as long as high inflation low interest rate environment persists
SSD? People are more concerned about preserving purchasing power in the face of high inflation rather than short term gain
Bubble for CCR? CCR as a whole, has not even reached previous peak in 2008
Bubble for OCR? Developers has downsized 2br to 743sqft so overall quantum is low
Is IR white elephant? Just check Genting International share price.
Something very good is going to come out from US, unemployment may drop to 8% soon.
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=G13.SI&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
stalingrad
28-02-11, 10:09
looking at how market progress and how developer bid the land, price doesnt seem to be on downward trend. is an evolve market now that set a new high entry level. the force is so strong to withstand two harsh measures and seems like price will only go downhill when something bad happen. even mr quek also predict a slight but not significant drop in price. and mr liew super confident of the market. if big brother poccess so optimistic view do u think price will really drop??? furthermore US seem to be recovery well and it will definitely benefit globally. i think even wait another one year, price will not fall
all those signs suggest that the market is still buoyant. I wouldn't buy in this market. I would wait. Not that I will guarantee myself a good outcome by waiting. but the odds are on that waiting at this juncture is a better decision.
speculators - holding less than a year?
investors - holding more than 10 years?
I buy and sell in a cycle. specuvestor?
yup, I am no longer interested in buying anything at the moment. just TCSS in this forum.:cheers1:
stalingrad
28-02-11, 10:14
looking at how market progress and how developer bid the land, price doesnt seem to be on downward trend. is an evolve market now that set a new high entry level. the force is so strong to withstand two harsh measures and seems like price will only go downhill when something bad happen. even mr quek also predict a slight but not significant drop in price. and mr liew super confident of the market. if big brother poccess so optimistic view do u think price will really drop??? furthermore US seem to be recovery well and it will definitely benefit globally. i think even wait another one year, price will not fall
US recovering well may be a warning sign. If the recovery shoots up, leading to high interest rates, all bets are off.
as a potential buyer, I am actually a cheerleader for US recovery.
devilplate
28-02-11, 10:18
Ya not weak enough.
I'm just thinking if it will get weaker by itself or need one more measure to make it weak.
I'm still looking for bargains but they are hard to come by.
Recently got someone at Tribeca asking 1.1mil for one bedder when everyone else asking 1.25mil and up. Never call agent but suspect it's fish exercise.
wow 1.1mil still VY EX! last yr was jus below 1mil when i was looking at it
devilplate
28-02-11, 10:21
US recovering well may be a warning sign. If the recovery shoots up, leading to high interest rates, all bets are off.
as a potential buyer, I am actually a cheerleader for US recovery.
i beg to differ.....int rates shoot up to 3-4%....gd for ppty :2cents:
In March 2009, so many gossips here also but about the property prices crashing further.
Verdict: Prices shot up!
Now so many gossips also and still many saying property prices will crash with latest govt cooling measures.
Verdict: (Wait for 12 months to know!! :p)
Those who say they already know the outcome in future (e.g. market is too hot and overvalued now and wait for a while will genuinely cool off) are playing "god"? :scared-1:
If property prices really drop, then MBT really shot himself in the foot and his policy simply didn't work as he intended as his intention is to "cool the property market so that the property price rise is sustainable over a longer term, not to cause the price to drop" as reported on newspaper. Once property price drop, panic starts to set in and that will be detrimental to Singapore as well as the votes they will get in the coming GE. (Remember, regardless of how much noise we hear about property prices rising too fast etc, these are noises made by the <10% without properties while we have >90% property owners who will vote him & PAP down 4 limps!). :banghead:
CCRbear, for this I agreed with you fully....:)
I recalled MBT want to hold market and NOT CRASHING the market.
i beg to differ.....int rates shoot up to 3-4%....gd for ppty :2cents:
int rate goes up good for ppty? tot we pay more int thus erroding rental yield?
phantom_opera
28-02-11, 10:27
int rate goes up good for ppty? tot we pay more int thus erroding rental yield?
At that time, Dow will hit 18,000 ...CCR properties will be shining once again
Ya not weak enough.
....
Recently got someone at Tribeca asking 1.1mil for one bedder when everyone else asking 1.25mil and up. Never call agent but suspect it's fish exercise.
new RV condos are trending to 2000psf, if not yet there.
old ones like Melrose Park now 1500psf (from Streetsine).
not weak enough in my view.
How weak then you think is good enough to go in? 10 20 30 percent drop?
devilplate
28-02-11, 10:42
How weak then you think is good enough to go in? 10 20 30 percent drop?
if based on % drop....den even nid to monitor the forum sentiment leh....jus monitor caveats will do rite....hehe
US recovering well may be a warning sign. If the recovery shoots up, leading to high interest rates, all bets are off.
as a potential buyer, I am actually a cheerleader for US recovery.
Wow Stanlingrad I am liking your posts lately... Very objective honest and cool.... Keep it up..
i beg to differ.....int rates shoot up to 3-4%....gd for ppty :2cents:
君子所见略同 haha ;)
especially CCR.
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 10:55
Yup 3-4% rates good for CCR and it is also good to take out some froth in the market.
My view, As long as US, China, India, Europe, Japan, Indonesia are outperform, there are no reason why price can drop. Now we are not only competing with ourselves likes in the 80s’ or 90s’ where local investor determine the price. Local interest rate determines the return. Therefore we need to compare the return around the globe. Eg, Interest rate goes up, SG investor got freak out, but oversea Investor find the strong SGD currency can give them Fx gain. Similarly to Equity investor, nowadays anyone can create an account and invest on Hk, US market where this service does not exist in the past. Think globally.
If inflation increases due to high demand in developing country like China, do you think the cost to build a ppty will get cheaper? Or Developer shrinks their profit? Think Globally again.
MBT did well to halt the increase in the price temporary, but compare to HK and China measure we are still better off to invest from foreign investor point of view.
Price can drop drastically if investor realize is time to flow their $ back to US and Europe market where the recovery is in the action. Can see that in recent stock market.
devilplate
28-02-11, 11:07
Price can drop drastically if investor realize is time to flow their $ back to US and Europe market where the recovery is in the action. Can see that in recent stock market.
tats true for equity markets.....but not so true for physical ppty....hardly seeing any big funds buying up local ppty so far....
tats true for equity markets.....but not so true for physical ppty....hardly seeing any big funds buying up local ppty so far....
Agree that Ppty is not as liquid as Equity, but the cash flow should thin off and left with over supply. Effect is the same, price drop
Agree that Ppty is not as liquid as Equity, but the cash flow should thin off and left with over supply. Effect is the same, price drop
alamak, property price drop doesnt mean volume is high.
so want to buy cheap cheap also difficult.
Agree that Ppty is not as liquid as Equity, but the cash flow should thin off and left with over supply.
that is provided foreign buy is a major factor in the market. I think unlike HK, SG has limited foreign play in these 2 yrs.
that is provided foreign buy is a major factor in the market. I think unlike HK, SG has limited foreign play in these 2 yrs.
My view is, Sg property is very much affected by foreigner who stay in Sg. PRs and FT who need a place to stay, who will pay rent or buy a unit at the end. if we look at Singaporean population alone we don’t need that many shelter maybe reducing due to low birth rate. Which is happening in Japan Ppty. So we Singaporean base on that factor of increasing FT population and enter into PPty investment. Once All these Foreigner find that their home country can yield higher salary, that is when rental will drop and price will follow suit. To maintain high demand in ppty, Govt need to import more Foreigner and to create job.
Alan Shearer
28-02-11, 13:29
Buy now unless you think more measures are imminent in the very near future. (Doubtful)
Current GDP, SGD vs USD and low interest rates are all pointers to a strong market. Prices should be on the up and would be if not being held on a tight rein.
Government will drop reins after election.
Even if prices drop a few % they will bounce back considerably more when the measures are relaxed.
Buy when others are fearful. Don't wait for the herd.;)
Buy now unless you think more measures are imminent in the very near future. (Doubtful)
Current GDP, SGD vs USD and low interest rates are all pointers to a strong market. Prices should be on the up and would be if not being held on a tight rein.
Government will drop reins after election.
Even if prices drop a few % they will bounce back considerably more when the measures are relaxed.
Buy when others are fearful. Don't wait for the herd.;)
same strategy as warren buffet:D .....i agree
i'm waiting for price correction not crash. for example 3%-5% drop in 2011, which is estimated by analyst & developer
ie (for illustration only): a $800k unit (last transacted) can be purchased at $760k ($40k down) is considered a good buy?
if 8%-10% drop = pre-cheong 2010 prices ? :D
sgkingkong
28-02-11, 14:22
yeah hor, where is kingkong?
:2cents:
sg's version can count?
stalingrad
28-02-11, 14:25
Buy now unless you think more measures are imminent in the very near future. (Doubtful)
Current GDP, SGD vs USD and low interest rates are all pointers to a strong market. Prices should be on the up and would be if not being held on a tight rein.
Government will drop reins after election.
Even if prices drop a few % they will bounce back considerably more when the measures are relaxed.
Buy when others are fearful. Don't wait for the herd.;)
the problem with your argument is that at this moment, no one is fearful. no fire sale, and developers are bidding up prices for government land.
where is the fear?
i'm waiting for price correction not crash. for example 3%-5% drop in 2011, which is estimated by analyst & developer
ie (for illustration only): a $800k unit (last transacted) can be purchased at $760k ($40k down) is considered a good buy?
if 8%-10% drop = pre-cheong 2010 prices ? :D
You are talking about the so-called 3-5% furniture vouchers?
What if prices never correct and continue to go up by another 3-5%; which imo is reasonable considering the forcast inflation the performance for local economy?
yes and no
what i really want is the final transacted price and $psf
You are talking about the so-called 3-5% furniture vouchers?
What if prices never correct and continue to go up by another 3-5%; which imo is reasonable considering the forcast inflation the performance for local economy?
You are talking about the so-called 3-5% furniture vouchers?
What if prices never correct and continue to go up by another 3-5%; which imo is reasonable considering the forcast inflation the performance for local economy?
I agree, I personnaly dont think the market going to have any correction, the only correction is going higher..the most price halt till ppl realise price is creeping up. Reason? High Inflation, +GDP, US &EU recovery.
You are talking about the so-called 3-5% furniture vouchers?
What if prices never correct and continue to go up by another 3-5%; which imo is reasonable considering the forcast inflation the performance for local economy?
ie (for illustration only): a $800k unit (last transacted) can be purchased at $760k ($40k down) is considered a good buy?
- This information is very vague, sometimes looking at figures is just part of the investment, you still need to consider the psf of surrounding developments, how much rental yield they are getting. Even if the 800k unit is down another $20k i seriously would not even take a 2nd look if it is in the middle of no where.
Wow Stanlingrad I am liking your posts lately... Very objective honest and cool.... Keep it up..
his wife posting lah.
phantom_opera
28-02-11, 15:14
Singapore hits record 1,055,000 visitors for Jan
JANUARY 2011 saw a 16.2 per cent growth in international visitors. The figure of 1,055,000 visitors is the highest ever recorded for the month of January.
Indonesia, China, Australia, Malaysia, and India were Singapore's top five visitor-generating markets for the period.
=> IR strategy well executed :cheers1:
i'm waiting for price correction not crash. for example 3%-5% drop in 2011, which is estimated by analyst & developer
ie (for illustration only): a $800k unit (last transacted) can be purchased at $760k ($40k down) is considered a good buy?
if 8%-10% drop = pre-cheong 2010 prices ? :D
If you are expecting a 3% to 5% correction, you might as well starting looking now. 3 to 5% is not substantial. Property is highly illiquid and doesn't come along when you want it. The property that you want may not be available when the prices drop by 3 to 5%. Personally, I would gladly pay 3 to 5% more for a property I really like.
My suggestion is to starting hunting now... you never know what you'll found.
If you are expecting 10 to 20% drop, than I'll advise you to wait:2cents:
Regulators
28-02-11, 15:34
There is not much incentive in getting a new launch condo now, all prices are future pricing, cannot rent or stay until 4 years later when condo is built, have to start paying mortgage even before you even get to see the condo. If buyers are looking to buy for own stay, it makes more sense buying a condo that has top'ed, pay lesser than a new one and spend the excess money to renovate the house nicely. when buying property, sometimes one must be forward looking, if you keep comparing with prices last time, no time is a good time to buy.
kingkong1984
28-02-11, 15:48
Posting less due to new interest.
16k members. Based on my observation in the short period i have joined only 30 member frequently post, myself included. Hardly a force to be reckon with.:cool:
But few days back was having a discussion with a couple of member about how our conversation here will potentially influence national policy:doh: :doh:
Talk about feeling self important.
Let's face it guys, we are really not that important, just a bunch of guy/girls bored at work/home.
Not true, not true. I dont post anything until today. But I still find all the discussion interesting and meaningful. of course, need to minus off the XXX. Maybe MBT also get some ideas from here for his policies. LOL :banghead:
Anyway, some developers are already giving 3% voucher. What is the likelihood to drop by 10-20%? When will it happen?
If you are expecting a 3% to 5% correction, you might as well starting looking now. 3 to 5% is not substantial. Property is highly illiquid and doesn't come along when you want it. The property that you want may not be available when the prices drop by 3 to 5%. Personally, I would gladly pay 3 to 5% more for a property I really like.
My suggestion is to starting hunting now... you never know what you'll found.
If you are expecting 10 to 20% drop, than I'll advise you to wait:2cents:
Me? I'm not expecting it to happen.... not even sure if it will drop 3 to 5%...:D
phantom_opera
28-02-11, 16:22
The Singapore Government has raised development charges, payable for enhancing a site's use or developing it more intensely, by an average of 18 per cent for landed residential use effective March 1, 2011.
Price of future project will head further north. More people will miss the boat if waiting for developers of new project to lower their prices.
The Singapore Government has raised development charges, payable for enhancing a site's use or developing it more intensely, by an average of 18 per cent for landed residential use effective March 1, 2011.
The Singapore Government has raised development charges, payable for enhancing a site's use or developing it more intensely, by an average of 18 per cent for landed residential use effective March 1, 2011. Not surprising since developers has been aggresive in their bidding...., likely developers will just adjust pricing accordingly...
There is not much incentive in getting a new launch condo now, all prices are future pricing, cannot rent or stay until 4 years later when condo is built, have to start paying mortgage even before you even get to see the condo. If buyers are looking to buy for own stay, it makes more sense buying a condo that has top'ed, pay lesser than a new one and spend the excess money to renovate the house nicely. when buying property, sometimes one must be forward looking, if you keep comparing with prices last time, no time is a good time to buy.
Yup, get completed properties now, enjoy low SOR rates and lots of savings now.
if buy uncompleted now, savings is miserable and interest rates may hike in 4 years time.
Can start renting it now and use rental to pay for mortgage. Not sure rental market in 3 years time.
Yup, get completed properties now, enjoy low SOR rates and lots of savings now.
if buy uncompleted now, savings is miserable and interest rates may hike in 4 years time.
the bishan plot will still be the old rate I suppose ?
If you are expecting a 3% to 5% correction, you might as well starting looking now. 3 to 5% is not substantial. Property is highly illiquid and doesn't come along when you want it. The property that you want may not be available when the prices drop by 3 to 5%. Personally, I would gladly pay 3 to 5% more for a property I really like.
My suggestion is to starting hunting now... you never know what you'll found.
If you are expecting 10 to 20% drop, than I'll advise you to wait:2cents:
my sentiments exactly...people under-estimate the amt of time needed to find a great property...i have seen abt 30plus units in feb alone, only 2 so so deal in so so location. the rest are asking for the sky...
i think prices will go up and up, be prepared to wait a year at min. even if a major correction does arrive, no one would have the balls to buy it, until they are certain they are not catching a falling knife...so that means another 1 year wait...ie for it to recover...
Early bird catches its worms.
my sentiments exactly...people under-estimate the amt of time needed to find a great property...i have seen abt 30plus units in feb alone, only 2 so so deal in so so location. the rest are asking for the sky...
i think prices will go up and up, be prepared to wait a year at min. even if a major correction does arrive, no one would have the balls to buy it, until they are certain they are not catching a falling knife...so that means another 1 year wait...ie for it to recover... Ya, agree. Saw a unit in orchard on wkend...tenanted.., Agent say Indonesian owner say want to sell, already 5th party viewing on sat, but all considering to give cheque, but no offer.., price asking was sky high as usual..., resulting is poor yield..:doh:
phantom_opera
28-02-11, 16:49
SINGAPORE - More mainland Chinese are buying private homes in Singapore, with a record number doing so in the last quarter of last year, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). And with the Chinese government rolling out more drastic measures to cool its overheated market - such as higher down payment norms for second home purchases and a property tax in Shanghai and Chongqing - analysts say more Chinese will park their money in property here.
In the final quarter of last year, Chinese nationals accounted for a record 23 per cent of private residential purchases in the Republic by non-Singapore citizens, according to a quarterly report by real-estate consultant DTZ.
They overtook Indonesians to emerge as the second-largest group of foreign property buyers here after Malaysians, traditionally the dominant group among non-Singaporean buyers, DTZ noted in its study which is based on caveats lodged for new-home and secondary-market sales.
In 2007, the Chinese accounted for only 7 per cent of foreigners buying property here; for the fall-year 2010, their share was 19 per cent. Analysts say Chinese nationals are investing for the long term. "There's a very large pool of Chinese buyers who need properties in Singapore for school, for coming here to work, for immigration purposes," said Mr Ku Swee Yong, chief executive officer of International Property Advisor. "All these are a natural consequence of the efforts Singapore has put in to promote ourselves in China."
Some experts are concerned about the impact on the market if foreign buyers make a quick exit. But others say the current level of foreign ownership is not alarming. "Singaporean buyers still make up about 70 per cent of buyers," said Ms Chua Chor Hoon, head of Southeast Asia research at DTZ. "Even if the foreigners were to pull out, it's not going to cause a big drop in prices if the Singapore economy is doing well and locals still continue to buy." But the proportion of local homebuyers is falling. URA data shows they accounted for 72 per cent of all transactions last year, compared with 76 per cent in 2009.
Meanwhile, those who are upgrading from public housing are buying smaller private apartments.
In 2009, only 32 per cent of buyers with HDB addresses had bought apartments smaller than 1,000 sq ft; last year, the ratio climbed to 41 per cent. This is due to high prices. "Small units slightly under S$1 million are the only types most HDB upgraders can afford," said Ms Chua.
.......
Some experts are concerned about the impact on the market if foreign buyers make a quick exit. But others say the current level of foreign ownership is not alarming. "Singaporean buyers still make up about 70 per cent of buyers," said Ms Chua Chor Hoon, head of Southeast Asia research at DTZ. "Even if the foreigners were to pull out, it's not going to cause a big drop in prices if the Singapore economy is doing well and locals still continue to buy." But the proportion of local homebuyers is falling. URA data shows they accounted for 72 per cent of all transactions last year, compared with 76 per cent in 2009.
..........
if Singaporeans running out of bullets? Property run up to slow down?
but the chinese got unlimited bullets and there is no limitation for foreigner in private property, isn't it ?
hk & taiwan property also pointed mainland chinese who drive them up by 30% and still creeping up. the chinese are controlled in PRC for buying property. the unstoppable urge to buy property goes to hk -> taiwan -> spore in priority
if Singaporeans running out of bullets? Property run up to slow down?
if Singaporeans running out of bullets? Property run up to slow down?
Last Singaporeans use small bullets also can buy, now with 40% LTV for 2nd property onwards, need bigger bullet...:D
Last Singaporeans use small bullets also can buy, now with 40% LTV for 2nd property onwards, need bigger bullet...:D
Very soon all new projects will be owned by Chinese.... Lol
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 20:22
Warren Buffet said it well: "be greedy when others are fearful"
But I don't see any fearful person in this forum leh, all like can't wait to cheong cheong cheong.
So I think of the second part of his famed quote: " be fearful when others are greedy"
Personally I am going to observe a while more. Unless someone point me to a fire sale somewhere in Sg.
doubt you can get any property with value these days.
Regulators
28-02-11, 20:49
A lot in this forum are from the nato squad (no action talk only)
Warren Buffet said it well: "be greedy when others are fearful"
But I don't see any fearful person in this forum leh, all like can't wait to cheong cheong cheong.
So I think of the second part of his famed quote: " be fearful when others are greedy"
Personally I am going to observe a while more. Unless someone point me to a fire sale somewhere in Sg.
doubt you can get any property with value these days.
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 21:06
A lot in this forum are from the nato squad (no action talk only)
LOL. Actually most don't even talk much as they are afraid of influencing policy. :doh:
Also so many people here hoping to talk up prices in their location and get rid of the property at good price, no harm in that, I won't do it that's all.
LOL. Actually most don't even talk much as they are afraid of influencing policy. :doh:
Also so many people here hoping to talk up prices in their location and get rid of the property at good price, no harm in that, I won't do it that's all.
haha.. spot-on :doh:
maybe we can't influence policies, but it sure looks like we have a good read on potential policies. Over the weekend, we were just talking about raising development charges in the light of capitaland's aggressive bid for bishan land. and this morning, the news is out.
Geylang OKT
28-02-11, 21:31
Great to see this forum alive and kicking!
Back in the early days of 2008, this forum was a ghost town :D :D :D
Great to see this forum alive and kicking!
Back in the early days of 2008, this forum was a ghost town :D :D :D
no transactions, no policies, no launches to talk about.
Geylang OKT
28-02-11, 21:39
no transactions, no policies, no launches to talk about.
Huat Ahhhhh!!!! :D :D :D
Huat Ahhhhh!!!! :D :D :D Seem like that's your favourite punch line...:D
LOL. Actually most don't even talk much as they are afraid of influencing policy. :doh:
Also so many people here hoping to talk up prices in their location and get rid of the property at good price, no harm in that, I won't do it that's all.
it is useless for Teddybear to talk up his property. Majority of us can't afford :banghead:
Regulators
28-02-11, 22:35
I remember back in those days we did not need to register a nick, can type any nick we wanted lol
Great to see this forum alive and kicking!
Back in the early days of 2008, this forum was a ghost town :D :D :D
my sentiments exactly...people under-estimate the amt of time needed to find a great property...i have seen abt 30plus units in feb alone, only 2 so so deal in so so location. the rest are asking for the sky...
i think prices will go up and up, be prepared to wait a year at min. even if a major correction does arrive, no one would have the balls to buy it, until they are certain they are not catching a falling knife...so that means another 1 year wait...ie for it to recover...
My experience tells me that in a very down market like in a crisis, the units that are on firesale are usually the lousy units... Those good units will be expensive.... It will be cheaper then before any crisis but compared to other units it will be deem high so no transaction....
In a normal flattish to slight correction market, no one will sell their good units... So back to square one sigh....
Condo Kaiser
28-02-11, 22:55
Ultimately it boils down to holding power.
Hi guys,
Got a couple of enquiries for my unit over the past weekends. Indon, Chinese and even Australian buyers looking for good condos in Singapore. The undertone is clear. Oversea buyers sourcing for safe haven for long-term investments look for clear fundamentals. Clear legistration, stable environment, strong currency with min. risk of devaluation over the mid/long term(unlike say vietnam) and limited long-term supply, which essentially describes Singapore.
As per the Sunday Times, quantitative easing policies lead to a market that is actively seeking a hedge for inflation. Beside commodities, property presents the next best alternative while low-interest environment prompt investors to further abandon cash positions.
Ultimately the question, is it a good time? Views are divided including Nomura's call, "tsunami of (SG property) supply in '12/'13". But one thing is certain, if you are a singaporean, you can ill afford not to be vested in this market.
My experience tells me that in a very down market like in a crisis, the units that are on firesale are usually the lousy units... Those good units will be expensive.... It will be cheaper then before any crisis but compared to other units it will be deem high so no transaction....
In a normal flattish to slight correction market, no one will sell their good units... So back to square one sigh....
the good units are few and far between. now the favourably priced ones, which could well be lousy facing units, are few and far between.
My experience tells me that in a very down market like in a crisis, the units that are on firesale are usually the lousy units... Those good units will be expensive.... It will be cheaper then before any crisis but compared to other units it will be deem high so no transaction....
In a normal flattish to slight correction market, no one will sell their good units... So back to square one sigh....
no fear even lousiest unit, as long as you get at firesale price. You will still be laughing to the bank eventually...
Condo Kaiser
01-03-11, 02:05
Despite all the confidence we are seeing in this forum, across various threads. I'm still going to call it a bad time to buy for investment. I know this will surely draw fire from all the owners here who would love to crucify me.
"Be Fearful when others are greedy"
But I also believe there is no wrong time to buy if it's for own stay. Just go with your heart.
:2cents:
Regulators
01-03-11, 02:14
if u need a place to stay, you have to buy, if you dont believe in buying, just rent lor...
Despite all the confidence we are seeing in this forum, across various threads. I'm still going to call it a bad time to buy for investment. I know this will surely draw fire from all the owners here who would love to crucify me.
"Be Fearful when others are greedy"
But I also believe there is no wrong time to buy if it's for own stay. Just go with your heart.
:2cents:
if u need a place to stay, you have to buy, if you dont believe in buying, just rent lor...
I noticed that hdb rental rate went up quite high recently, making hdb undervalued. Looks like hdb valuation still have a lot of room to catch up. This will in turn support or push up condo price somemore. So if there is a good unit, still can buy at current prices!
a lot of people still undecided...they'd better take the plunge now
Many still talk about property prices crashing like in 90's, but reality is unless there is yet another global crisis, it will not happen
rather, they should look at the 80's - when prices rose on strong fundamentals, they all held back, and before long, that price setting was the norm and there was no going back. :tsk-tsk:
a lot of people still undecided...they'd better take the plunge now
Many still talk about property prices crashing like in 90's, but reality is unless there is yet another global crisis, it will not happen
rather, they should look at the 80's - when prices rose on strong fundamentals, they all held back, and before long, that price setting was the norm and there was no going back. :tsk-tsk:
Ahh, the good old days..... :) people really have short memories
if use examples from 1980s, 1985 got recession. also flattish compare to 1990 to 1996 runup in property prices.
and how often do you think crisis happens?
Wild Falcon
01-03-11, 09:06
Sometimes the "lousy" unit on low floor and badly maintained gives the best return. You can renovate and value-add which makes all the difference. Some people believe in buying the worst unit in the same location. A lot of tenants don't even care about high floor or west sun. Ang moh may even place a premium to sunshine.
no fear even lousiest unit, as long as you get at firesale price. You will still be laughing to the bank eventually...
It may have good return but need to sell to another person who has that kind of mindset, "lousy unit is good". Not so easy to find as compared to someone looking for good location.
Sometimes the "lousy" unit on low floor and badly maintained gives the best return. You can renovate and value-add which makes all the difference. Some people believe in buying the worst unit in the same location. A lot of tenants don't even care about high floor or west sun. Ang moh may even place a premium to sunshine.
phantom_opera
01-03-11, 10:53
Luxurious MM :doh: :
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_640037.html
When prices are cheap, times are bad and income is uncertain. When times are good, prices are expensive. 2005-2007 was a very rare period where a lot of the stars were aligned. It's hard to get times as good as that again.
When prices are cheap, times are bad and income is uncertain. When times are good, prices are expensive. 2005-2007 was a very rare period where a lot of the stars were aligned. It's hard to get times as good as that again. During uncertain times, many even have cash do not have the guts to buy, some want to reserve bullet$ for rainy days..., that is the Herd problem....everyone look and see, just follow the masses...
Transaction volume will get lower and after a few months prices will start to drift down with supply increasing leh.
My own opinion only.
New launches such as Sky Suites @ Anson, etc will maintain volume. Not sure how long can it last.
Transaction volume will get lower and after a few months prices will start to drift down with supply increasing leh.
My own opinion only.
Condo Kaiser
01-03-11, 15:34
Yes, volume will decrease as all are taking the side line to observe.
But no seller is willing to lower price, until all the new units are completed and they realise buyers who have waited all this while are no longer interested in their older units, then they will start to worry.
As interest rate increase towards the end of 2011, buying power will be affected. Then prices will really start to dip.
Unless of cos we get a big push from the stock market and people are flushed with cash again.
Generally I would wait and see. Patience will pay off in 6 months time.;)
devilplate
01-03-11, 15:39
Yes, volume will decrease as all are taking the side line to observe.
But no seller is willing to lower price, until all the new units are completed and they realise buyers who have waited all this while are no longer interested in their older units, then they will start to worry.
As interest rate increase towards the end of 2011, buying power will be affected. Then prices will really start to dip.
Unless of cos we get a big push from the stock market and people are flushed with cash again.
Generally I would wait and see. Patience will pay off in 6 months time.;)
lets see whether u r a winner or a loser in 6mth's time;)
How confident are you betting that interest rate will rise at the end of the year?
Yes, volume will decrease as all are taking the side line to observe.
But no seller is willing to lower price, until all the new units are completed and they realise buyers who have waited all this while are no longer interested in their older units, then they will start to worry.
As interest rate increase towards the end of 2011, buying power will be affected. Then prices will really start to dip.
Unless of cos we get a big push from the stock market and people are flushed with cash again.
Generally I would wait and see. Patience will pay off in 6 months time.;)
sure ? let see whether Kwek is right the most is 5% drop...after erection we shall see...when all the prices start going up(inflation which some of the prices have already gone up esp for foodstall)...will pte pty goes down artificialy due to more measures or more people will be tempeted to hedge against inflation buying pty? and with DC goes up..price will go down??:)
16k members. Based on my observation in the short period i have joined only 30 member frequently post, myself included. Hardly a force to be reckon with.:cool:
But few days back was having a discussion with a couple of member about how our conversation here will potentially influence national policy:doh: :doh:
Talk about feeling self important.
Let's face it guys, we are really not that important, just a bunch of guy/girls bored at work/home.
try posting what is your asset here? then we will see whether IR:S will come to you in a few month time...sometimes it is not the number which determine the importance..it is WHO that read that matters...wake up..:D
try posting what is your asset here? then we will see whether IR:S will come to you in a few month time...sometimes it is not the number which determine the importance..it is WHO that read that matters...wake up..:D
whats your point? you think your identity is secret?
if they want, they can keep track anyway. no need for you to post your properties.
I am not worried about IRAS. I am 99.9999% law abiding in Singapore. Only offense committed is jaywalking.:ashamed1: that accounts for the 0.0001%
Condo Kaiser
01-03-11, 17:55
Aiya, ok you guys win...
Property prices are going to go up by another 20% in the next 6 months.
Better buy now otherwise never in your life can get this price again.:doh:
I am a bit conservative so I prefer to wait 6 - 12 months.
And in response to interest rate rise. I will wager a cup of coffee that SIBOR and SOR will go up by Q2 2012.:cool:
As of today: 3M SOR = 0.13556 // 3M SIBOR = 0.4375
I think SIBOR can definitely cross 1% mark by then. But honestly, 1% is still damn low la. additional 0.6% adds maximum few hundred dollars per month. I just think that all the factors will further dampen buying sentiment.
To peterng8: IRAS got no time come and check your assets la, unless you really evade tax alot. If they depend on forum to check then it will take forever to catch tax evaders in singapore. Plus, I have not much assets to start with so very fast can check finish. Hope they get in touch with me to inform me of some hidden assets which i do not know of :p
phantom_opera
01-03-11, 17:59
It is very strange that ppl think that interest rate going up automatically means property market will cool down or even correct.
To the contrary, interest rate moving up to 3% will mean a solid recovery in the US economy and CCR property price is going to fly through the roof when all the fortunate 500 companies giving generous housing allowance again. SC Global has been waiting for this for damn long time already :banghead:
And the 2 IRs here will be only second to Macau in Asia Pacific .... magnet to attract hot $$$ when interest rate goes up
It is very strange that ppl think that interest rate going up automatically means property market will cool down or even correct.
To the contrary, interest rate moving up to 3% will mean a solid recovery in the US economy and CCR property price is going to fly through the roof when all the fortunate 500 companies giving generous housing allowance again. SC Global has been waiting for this for damn long time already :banghead:
And the 2 IRs here will be only second to Macau in Asia Pacific .... magnet to attract hot $$$ when interest rate goes up
??? interest rate go up does not mean economy is good or bad, it could be that inflation is getting out of hand in US.
Whatever it is, high interest rate is a PRE-REQUISITE for a crash. If interest rate stays so low, the holding power of people is very high. What we need for crash is high interest rate and some bad news.
Condo Kaiser
01-03-11, 18:30
Agree. I have said in another thread about this too. Hard Core CCR properties (3mil and up) tend to benefit from stronger interest rate because buyers of such properties usually only take a small loan (30%~ 50%) so they are less affected in terms of repayment.
Stronger economy will encourage higher risk taking among HNWI.
But middle class speculators who usually max their borrowing capability might run into issues will higher repayment and not everyone is 100% risk loving. There comes a time when too much risk does not equate to higher returns.
The current run in property prices is largely driven by OCR and it will slowly shift to be driven by CCR, but OCR owners will lack the kind of serious holding powers CCR owners have and prices in OCR might suffer as a result of that.
:2cents:
phantom_opera
01-03-11, 19:19
OCR 2br 721sqft 3br 1000sqft will be the norm when interest rate hit 3-4% to ensure affordability. Still does not mean there will be a correction especially when CCR starts to rocket.
Agreed with phantom. The only time u see US raising rates is when they are really recovering. As of now, ben had proven once again he will do QE as mich as he likes. And we have China sucking up most of that.
This is a weird fiscal world. Asset inflation is inevitable. U will regret later in ur life if u did not profit from this once in a century opportunity.
Although this does not mean u should buy blindly. What I want to bring across is this : interest rate going up significantly in the short term is not likely ; Make u pick on pties that are not 5y forward priced ;)
Almost all new launches, with a few exceptions, have a 5yr forward priced in.
Almost all new launches, with a few exceptions, have a 5yr forward priced in.
The exceptions have a 10 years forward pricing...see Lakefront...
And perhaps my manhatten?
Ai yoh, you think interest rate in US very low because inflation is low in US? :doh:
In US, interest rate is always lowered when going into recession, and raised when economy heating up. You think this time it is going to an exception and interest rate raised means crash? (How to crash again even before economy recover?) :scared-2:
You will be disappointed with that, and that crash you are looking forward to will be a long time away! :cheers1:
??? interest rate go up does not mean economy is good or bad, it could be that inflation is getting out of hand in US.
Whatever it is, high interest rate is a PRE-REQUISITE for a crash. If interest rate stays so low, the holding power of people is very high. What we need for crash is high interest rate and some bad news.
And perhaps my manhatten?
Yes..and Greenwich, too.
I am a bit conservative so I prefer to wait 6 - 12 months.
+1. No point jumping in right now.
A few decades ago, the US could raise rates to curb inflation because they weren't this deep in budget deficit.
Today, the US is in a very different situation and they are forced to play their interest rate card very differently.
Condo Kaiser
01-03-11, 20:45
Agreed with phantom. The only time u see US raising rates is when they are really recovering. As of now, ben had proven once again he will do QE as mich as he likes. And we have China sucking up most of that.
This is a weird fiscal world. Asset inflation is inevitable. U will regret later in ur life if u did not profit from this once in a century opportunity.
Although this does not mean u should buy blindly. What I want to bring across is this : interest rate going up significantly in the short term is not likely ; Make u pick on pties that are not 5y forward priced ;)
The once in a life time opportunity has already passed us by in 2008-2010.
Most of us has already benefited from that period. It is far more important to learn to properly preserve that wealth instead of dreaming a multiplying it like we did back in 2008 -2010.
When there are so many people so greedy, I choose my side and be fearful. There is absolutely no fear in this forum as far as I can see. (Maybe all of you are vested so no one talks down the market, understandable).
I choose to wait 6-12 months as I'm SURE there will hardly be any jump in property prices in the near term, but substansive downside risk if anything goes wrong
I'm hoping things can maintain flat for a while before fundementals catch us with valuation before we kick off with another round of valuation increases in assets.
Buying now with next 5 years priced in is just too risky, with economic cycle shortening in time between peak and trough, a lot can happen in 5 years. What's the harm of waiting 6-12 months?
10%? 20%?
I choose to wait 6-12 months as I'm SURE there will hardly be any jump in property prices in the near term, but substansive downside risk if anything goes wrong
Did u see the Jan report on Property price index? CCR n OCR both went up 2% plus. Its says damn scary..... cos if it continues at this rate... its ard 24% a year. But my gut instinct tells me its because of MM units. Those along steven road sold out. Bedok "waterfront" collection also sold alot of small units. Those should have contributed to the higher OCR price as well
phantom_opera
01-03-11, 21:05
Most US banks balance sheet are still full of subprime shit
Most German, British, French banks balance sheet are still full of PIGS shit
It will take years of low interest to clear those shit :tsk-tsk:
Condo Kaiser
01-03-11, 21:05
Did you also read that most believe the price increase were achieved before the latest round of cooling measures.
How many transactions were recorded since then? And if those transactions contributed to the increase?
I don't think there will be a crash coming but what is the big rush to buy, I can understand the big rush to sell for some owners.
What you said not true woh, the bears here are you, Stalingrad, jwong, geylang OKT, (somemore you go find out if you bother to). :p
The once in a life time opportunity has already passed us by in 2008-2010.
Most of us has already benefited from that period. It is far more important to learn to properly preserve that wealth instead of dreaming a multiplying it like we did back in 2008 -2010.
When there are so many people so greedy, I choose my side and be fearful. There is absolutely no fear in this forum as far as I can see. (Maybe all of you are vested so no one talks down the market, understandable).
I choose to wait 6-12 months as I'm SURE there will hardly be any jump in property prices in the near term, but substansive downside risk if anything goes wrong
I'm hoping things can maintain flat for a while before fundementals catch us with valuation before we kick off with another round of valuation increases in assets.
Buying now with next 5 years priced in is just too risky, with economic cycle shortening in time between peak and trough, a lot can happen in 5 years. What's the harm of waiting 6-12 months?
10%? 20%?
i believe the price increased wasn't from resale.
Simple reasoning! IF u sell now, the next house u buy u till TIO 4yr SSD. Unless u are offered ridiculous price for your unit, one wont sell especially if is own stay home. If u own 2nd home for rental n 1 for own stay, practically no one will sell. Simple cos rental home is collecting good yield(almost all) , y rock the boat?
Pardon my limited knowledge, Only way for index to increase when there is next to no action in resale market, points to new sales. Across the board the new launches i visit , the sell outs are the MM or small units. This units usually have very high PSF. I suspect the MM are giving a false impression of continue price rally.
MBT if u are reading this , your last measure please put, MM units below 500sqft are to be give 7yr SSD. First year 40%. Guaranteed index will be "cooled"
this forum only have hardcore property addicts, hence there's only bullish views. but go on the ground. a lot of people are adopting a wait and see approach. there's hardly any sense of bullishness there. look at H2O, they operated out of a tent for a few weeks, finally they're going for a launch this week. big projects like minton and d'leedon are taking a much longer time to sell. no flying cheques or overnight queues. where's the bullishness in all this?
i believe the price increased wasn't from resale.
Pardon my limited knowledge, Only way for index to increase when there is next to no action in resale market, points to new sales. Across the board the new launches i visit , the sell outs are the MM or small units. This units usually have very high PSF. I suspect the MM are giving a false impression of continue price rally.
MBT if u are reading this , your last measure please put, MM units below 500sqft are to be give 7yr SSD. First year 40%. Guaranteed index will be "cooled"
Nowadays, quantum less than $1mil consider cheap buy. Those less than $500k is very cheap buy. Dun have figures, but suspect properties less than $1mil would make up at least 60%-70% of all transactions and likewise those less than 500sqft may be just as high as 50%
this forum only have hardcore property addicts, hence there's only bullish views. but go on the ground. a lot of people are adopting a wait and see approach. there's hardly any sense of bullishness there. look at H2O, they operated out of a tent for a few weeks, finally they're going for a launch this week. big projects like minton and d'leedon are taking a much longer time to sell. no flying cheques or overnight queues. where's the bullishness in all this?
how to be bullish when 90% of pple bought in the last 4-5 years all in the $$$. All getting FAT from the big windfall. Stomach full full now to feel depressed? How to feel depressed when cooling measure still got many foreigners knowing on door to offer? How not to be bullish now , with interest rate payment at all time low and rental collection at all time high?
This sense if safety is created by govt's rentless bombardment of good news every day on the papers.
this forum only have hardcore property addicts, hence there's only bullish views. but go on the ground. a lot of people are adopting a wait and see approach. there's hardly any sense of bullishness there. look at H2O, they operated out of a tent for a few weeks, finally they're going for a launch this week. big projects like minton and d'leedon are taking a much longer time to sell. no flying cheques or overnight queues. where's the bullishness in all this?
Some Agent for H20 just called my home number, trying to invite me to VVIP preview this Friday..., don't even know how they get my number, just ask to speak to owner...while I have not rule out on buying in these times, still on look out for projects, however am not interested in this one.
Nowadays, quantum less than $1mil consider cheap buy. Those less than $500k is very cheap buy. Dun have figures, but suspect properties less than $1mil would make up at least 60%-70% of all transactions and likewise those less than 500sqft may be just as high as 50%
HDB dwellers accounted for a lower proportion of overall private property transactions in 2010 than in the previous year, according to a DTZ analysis based on data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
Many of those who purchased private property also opted to take up small units measuring less than 1,000 sq ft, it said.
“I think it has to do with the higher (property) prices,” said Chua Chor Hoon, Head of Southeast Asia Research at DTZ. “People who upgrade from HDB flats are usually more price-sensitive.”
DTZ said in a report that 35 percent of private residences sold in 2010 were acquired by buyers with HDB addresses, down six percentage points from the 41 percent in 2009.
On the whole, HDB residents seem to have taken a higher interest in private homes of below 1,000 sq ft. The proportion of buyers living in HDB flats who acquired units of less than 1,000 sq ft climbed to 41 percent in 2010, from 32 percent in the previous year.
A total of 35,319 private property transactions were seen last year, up 11 percent from the previous year but still lower than the 2007 record level of 37,799 transactions. Total transactional value reached S$57.9 billion in 2010, also higher than in 2009 but below the 2007 level.
“Following more measures to stabilise the residential market in January 2011, we expect quieter activity in the market in 2011,” said DTZ.
“Sub-sales activity is expected to be lower in 2011, as short-term speculation is affected by the seller’s stamp duty (SSD), which was imposed in August 2010 and raised in January 2011.”
DTZ also noted that non-landed sub-sales accounted for 11 percent of the total number of non-landed transactions last year — the lowest level since 2006.
your suspection are not far from the facts i believe
as a plain comparison, i would rather buy minton than h20 if i had to choose between the 2. but i've no vested interest minton.
The index does not take in new launches nor affected by MM.
The SRPI is computed based on the market value of a fixed basket of properties selected to represent the private non-landed residential market. As at the end of December 2009, the current SRPI basket comprises 364 non-landed private residential projects that have been completed, according to the date of receipt of Temporary Occupation Permit [TOP] status, between October 1998 and September 2009. Projects with fewer than 40 units and developments that may have been targeted for en bloc sales are excluded.
Singapore Residential Price Index up in Jan
Posted by luxuryasiahome (http://lushhomemedia.com/author/luxuryasiahome/) on March 1, 2011 · Leave a Comment (http://lushhomemedia.com/2011/03/01/singapore-residential-price-index-up-in-jan/#respond)
Non-landed private home prices galloped in January, despite the stringent measures announced by the Government to cool the exuberance in the property market.
Flash estimates released by the National University of Singapore Institute of Real Estate Studies showed that the overall Singapore Residential Price Index rose 2.6 per cent month-on-month. That is more than double the 1-per-cent increase in the index in December.
The central region sub-index, comprising postal districts 1 to 4 and 9 to 11, jumped 2.7 per cent to 165.3 points – a reversal from a 0.8-per-cent decline in December. Meanwhile, the non-central sub-index, composed of all remaining districts, rose 2.5 per cent to 158.8 points – slightly higher than the 2.3-per-cent increase in December.
Analysts said low interest rates and strong economic growth are pushing home prices up. Some analysts said it is too early for the numbers to reflect the full impact of the cooling measures, others say it is alarming that prices are still rising so quickly.
And they said that if transaction volumes and prices continue to rise, another round of cooling measures cannot be ruled out.
“If the price increase continues at this pace, certainly I think the authorities will have to look at it,” said Mr Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.
The index does not take in new launches nor affected by MM.
The SRPI is computed based on the market value of a fixed basket of properties selected to represent the private non-landed residential market. As at the end of December 2009, the current SRPI basket comprises 364 non-landed private residential projects that have been completed, according to the date of receipt of Temporary Occupation Permit [TOP] status, between October 1998 and September 2009. Projects with fewer than 40 units and developments that may have been targeted for en bloc sales are excluded.
thanks for the kind enlightment! This makes the news looks even more scary. Not scare of price rally, but of more insanely brutal measures.
HDB dwellers accounted for a lower proportion of overall private property transactions in 2010 than in the previous year, according to a DTZ analysis based on data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
Many of those who purchased private property also opted to take up small units measuring less than 1,000 sq ft, it said.
“I think it has to do with the higher (property) prices,” said Chua Chor Hoon, Head of Southeast Asia Research at DTZ. “People who upgrade from HDB flats are usually more price-sensitive.”
On the whole, HDB residents seem to have taken a higher interest in private homes of below 1,000 sq ft. The proportion of buyers living in HDB flats who acquired units of less than 1,000 sq ft climbed to 41 percent in 2010, from 32 percent in the previous year.
A total of 35,319 private property transactions were seen last year, up 11 percent from the previous year but still lower than the 2007 record level of 37,799 transactions. Total transactional value reached S$57.9 billion in 2010, also higher than in 2009 but below the 2007 level.
“Following more measures to stabilise the residential market in January 2011, we expect quieter activity in the market in 2011,” 2010 and raised in January 2011.”
your suspection are not far from the facts i believe
ya, especially last 3mths since Oxley become listed after IPO, several projects launched are all MM..., nothing against MM, just not my cup of tea, and figueres/data is projecting a skewed vision of property Market...
Almost all new launches, with a few exceptions, have a 5yr forward priced in.
So look for resales, plenty of them around. ;) I agree some OCR new launches look really ahead of its time :cool:
My post is mainly to support phantom : interest rate is not going anywhere.
So look for resales, plenty of them around. ;) I agree some OCR new launches look really ahead of its time :cool:
My post is mainly to support phantom : interest rate is not going anywhere.
some of the D15 launches also look ahead of their time.
Condo Kaiser
01-03-11, 21:50
Singapore Residential Price Index up in Jan
Posted by luxuryasiahome (http://lushhomemedia.com/author/luxuryasiahome/) on March 1, 2011 · Leave a Comment (http://lushhomemedia.com/2011/03/01/singapore-residential-price-index-up-in-jan/#respond)
Non-landed private home prices galloped in January, despite the stringent measures announced by the Government to cool the exuberance in the property market.
Flash estimates released by the National University of Singapore Institute of Real Estate Studies showed that the overall Singapore Residential Price Index rose 2.6 per cent month-on-month. That is more than double the 1-per-cent increase in the index in December.
The central region sub-index, comprising postal districts 1 to 4 and 9 to 11, jumped 2.7 per cent to 165.3 points – a reversal from a 0.8-per-cent decline in December. Meanwhile, the non-central sub-index, composed of all remaining districts, rose 2.5 per cent to 158.8 points – slightly higher than the 2.3-per-cent increase in December.
Analysts said low interest rates and strong economic growth are pushing home prices up. Some analysts said it is too early for the numbers to reflect the full impact of the cooling measures, others say it is alarming that prices are still rising so quickly.
And they said that if transaction volumes and prices continue to rise, another round of cooling measures cannot be ruled out.
“If the price increase continues at this pace, certainly I think the authorities will have to look at it,” said Mr Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.
2 points:
1) if the price go up another 2% in Feb/Mar. Govt might give one more round of cooling measures.
2) think another part of this article talks abt the price increase is chalked up before the Jan 13th measures.
As a result, it is more prudent to wait a while and see how the direction is going before rushing to buy.
I am not a bear but I don't like it when people here talk abt buying property like buying vegetable. So what next month go up 2%. Is this 2% worth risking if govt plans to hit the market hard again? If never hit us with more measures then probably means the measures are working and prices are not going up/going down.
So conclusion is worth the wait. Not asking people to wait 3 years. 6-12 months enough.
6-12 months is a reasonable time line yes. Afterall, it could take that long to find one unit of the right price, right facing, right everything. so when the unit comes along, and with a clearer direction of the trend, why not.
some of the D15 launches also look ahead of their time.
I think almost all new launches are ahead if their time wor...:2cents:
Watch for tonite and 2moro USA report:
"The market will also watch Fed chief Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts expect him to stick to his recent economic assessment that the recovery is strengthening but still not enough to bring about a significant improvement in the jobs market, suggesting the time is not ripe for U.S. rates to rise."
Let's see...
We need to put things in perspective first and don't create panic.
Firstly, URA index seriously skewed by new launch sales, particularly overpriced MMs.
That is why this SRPI was created to look at the resale data. Resale prices have seriously lagged new sales for tooooo looooong and this was not captured before this SRPI was created (just created recently in 2010).
Imagine Glydebourne selling at S$2200 psf while just across the road The Equatorial selling for $1500 psf? Even worse, just behind Glydebourne, Trevose Park selling at $1300 psf! New also doesn't deserve almost 90% premium! Anyway, 5 years later also old already, no difference from that estate behind it! :p
Look at these CCR resale private property prices, are they really over-priced? (vs MyMahattan that ulu ulu "bird doesn't want to lay eggs" location selling at $1200-1400 psf just because it is new?). Policy makers should open their eyes and tackle problem directly at the source rather than anyhow shoot. :doh: MMs should rightly fully reserve for dogs, not humans! :p
The index does not take in new launches nor affected by MM.
The SRPI is computed based on the market value of a fixed basket of properties selected to represent the private non-landed residential market. As at the end of December 2009, the current SRPI basket comprises 364 non-landed private residential projects that have been completed, according to the date of receipt of Temporary Occupation Permit [TOP] status, between October 1998 and September 2009. Projects with fewer than 40 units and developments that may have been targeted for en bloc sales are excluded.
We need to put things in perspective first and don't create panic.
Firstly, URA index seriously skewed by new launch sales, particularly overpriced MMs.
That is why this SRPI was created to look at the resale data. Resale prices have seriously lagged new sales for tooooo looooong and this was not captured before this SRPI was created (just created recently in 2010).
Imagine Glydebourne selling at S$2200 psf while just across the road The Equatorial selling for $1500 psf? Even worse, just behind Glydebourne Trevose Park selling at $1300 psf! New also doesn't deserve almost 90% premium! Anyway, 5 years later also old already, no difference from that estate behind it! :p
3 years later the newer development might looked more aged cos the neighbouring older developments could have gotten a fresh quote of paint.
thanks for the kind enlightment! This makes the news looks even more scary. Not scare of price rally, but of more insanely brutal measures.
im least concern if prices surge, or low interest maintain for the next 1-2yrs..
more keen to see in wad more insane brutal measures, to kill off the hot monies coming in from creating a hot market
im least concern if prices surge, or low interest maintain for the next 1-2yrs..
more keen to see in wad more insane brutal measures, to kill off the hot monies coming in from creating a hot market
The problem is that hot money has not come in yet...
It's pent up local demand....
Coz our gahmen don't want to build hdb and release land for the last ten years when one million population increase....
This I really don't understand .... How can you not build more homes when population increase by one million?
Then make us pay by paying sky high prices then slam us with cooling measures..... CMI
2 points:
1) if the price go up another 2% in Feb/Mar. Govt might give one more round of cooling measures.
2) think another part of this article talks abt the price increase is chalked up before the Jan 13th measures.
As a result, it is more prudent to wait a while and see how the direction is going before rushing to buy.
I am not a bear but I don't like it when people here talk abt buying property like buying vegetable. So what next month go up 2%. Is this 2% worth risking if govt plans to hit the market hard again? If never hit us with more measures then probably means the measures are working and prices are not going up/going down.
So conclusion is worth the wait. Not asking people to wait 3 years. 6-12 months enough.
let me think
buy now only 4year SSD.
6-12 months later.
buy later, maybe 5year SSD.
so if buy 6 months down the road, you pay higher price and also subjected to round 5 measures?
of course, buy resale and not new launches.
2 points:
1) if the price go up another 2% in Feb/Mar. Govt might give one more round of cooling measures.
2) think another part of this article talks abt the price increase is chalked up before the Jan 13th measures.
As a result, it is more prudent to wait a while and see how the direction is going before rushing to buy.
I am not a bear but I don't like it when people here talk abt buying property like buying vegetable. So what next month go up 2%. Is this 2% worth risking if govt plans to hit the market hard again? If never hit us with more measures then probably means the measures are working and prices are not going up/going down.
So conclusion is worth the wait. Not asking people to wait 3 years. 6-12 months enough.
If market goes up 2% for 2 more months, many will rush in again i guess. China dont let pple buy 3rd property, but it still continue to go up. the last measure damn pain liao, i was hoping things move on slowly also. 1 year 5-6 % good liao. go on for another 5 yrs.
Imagine Glydebourne selling at S$2200 psf while just across the road The Equatorial selling for $1500 psf? Even worse, just behind Glydebourne, Trevose Park selling at $1300 psf! New also doesn't deserve almost 90% premium! Anyway, 5 years later also old already, no difference from that estate behind it! :p
i was wondering y Equatorial selling only $1500, was wondering issit the highway right smack in the face. The traffic is pretty heavy at time. I attributed the "sunko" price to the bridge as the facing is really quiet unbearable i would imagine. Stevens road with nice facing should not have problem selling 1800-2000 psf ba?
i was wondering y Equatorial selling only $1500, was wondering issit the highway right smack in the face. The traffic is pretty heavy at time. I attributed the "sunko" price to the bridge as the facing is really quiet unbearable i would imagine. Stevens road with nice facing should not have problem selling 1800-2000 psf ba?
the monthly maint charges for equatorial are also ridiculous - about $800 per mth for a 3 bedder.
The problem is that hot money has not come in yet...
It's pent up local demand....
Coz our gahmen don't want to build hdb and release land for the last ten years when one million population increase....
This I really don't understand .... How can you not build more homes when population increase by one million?
Then make us pay by paying sky high prices then slam us with cooling measures..... CMI
Hot $$$ predominately would goes into more liquid assets i guess, perhaps a smaller portion into property. However the lastest SSD guaranteed it wont go into property. My guess from reports are that 70% local n 30% foreign. The 30% is probably very motivated by insane inflation in some parts of asia. With a strong moving currency, high inflation + low interest rate enviroment, the foreign interest might just get stronger in 2011/2012?
What are your views?
the monthly maint charges for equatorial are also ridiculous - about $800 per mth for a 3 bedder.
Then Sinking fund should be quite full or maintenance super ex and damn good service
If market goes up 2% for 2 more months, many will rush in again i guess. China dont let pple buy 3rd property, but it still continue to go up. the last measure damn pain liao, i was hoping things move on slowly also. 1 year 5-6 % good liao. go on for another 5 yrs.
1 year up 5-6% is good indeed. over 5 years up 25-30%. assuming you injected 30% equity before the measures were implemented, 30% ROA would be equals to 100% ROE.
i was wondering y Equatorial selling only $1500, was wondering issit the highway right smack in the face. The traffic is pretty heavy at time. I attributed the "sunko" price to the bridge as the facing is really quiet unbearable i would imagine. Stevens road with nice facing should not have problem selling 1800-2000 psf ba?
Only have 8 stacks, either bedroom or balcony face busy bukit Timah road or Stevens road...
plus it's resale. once you carry the resale, the market rightfully or wrongfully will mark down 30% against newly launched developments in the area.
Regulators
02-03-11, 00:04
You are too calculating. If you buy for own stay, don't need to waste precious brain cells speculating whether people will reduce that few tens of thousands for you 6-12 months down the road, what is more important is whether you like that condo so much that you are prepared to pay at current price. First owners bought parc emily one bedder at $4xxk in 2004/5, in 2008, owners were selling at $650k and many think it was seow, now transacted prices have crossed $900k for the one bedder. Looking back, do you think those who bought in 2008 were seow even though they knew the owners was pocketing a cool $200k for a tiny one bedder?
2 points:
1) if the price go up another 2% in Feb/Mar. Govt might give one more round of cooling measures.
2) think another part of this article talks abt the price increase is chalked up before the Jan 13th measures.
As a result, it is more prudent to wait a while and see how the direction is going before rushing to buy.
I am not a bear but I don't like it when people here talk abt buying property like buying vegetable. So what next month go up 2%. Is this 2% worth risking if govt plans to hit the market hard again? If never hit us with more measures then probably means the measures are working and prices are not going up/going down.
So conclusion is worth the wait. Not asking people to wait 3 years. 6-12 months enough.
Regulators
02-03-11, 00:23
If you had done a contra of 1000 lots for golden agri at 62 cents just on friday and exited at 70 cents today, You would have made a whopping $75k in just 3 working days. Can use the money for stamp duty or pay a bit into downpayment for condo.
devilplate
02-03-11, 00:27
If you had done a contra of 1000 lots for golden agri at 62 cents just on friday and exited at 70 cents today, You would have made a whopping $75k in just 3 working days. Can use the money for stamp duty or pay a bit into downpayment for condo.
u aso play this stock? wah 1k lots...big big player....:scared-5:
Regulators
02-03-11, 00:30
contra 1000 lots for penny stocks is kachang puteh. 1000 lots of golden agri is only $620k. My forex friends do margin trading in forex by tens of millions.
u aso play this stock? wah 1k lots...big big player....:scared-5:
rattydrama
02-03-11, 00:34
contra 1000 lots for penny stocks is kachang puteh. 1000 lots of golden agri is only $620k. My forex friends do margin trading in forex by tens of millions.
wow kau... how often he gets heart attack?
rattydrama
02-03-11, 00:35
u aso play this stock? wah 1k lots...big big player....:scared-5:
this stock swings alot and for sometimes.
Regulators
02-03-11, 00:38
people in trading line don't see money as anything, to them money is just numbers. They make $1 mil a month, life still goes on for them like normal. I am not in the same league as them, i buy and sell stocks just for fun, not for a living.
wow kau... how often he gets heart attack?
rattydrama
02-03-11, 00:40
people in trading line don't see money as anything, to them money is just numbers. They make $1 mil a month, life still goes on for them like normal. I am not in the same league as them, i buy and sell stocks just for fun, not for a living.
chey tot using own $....I am just curious, does it mean that they will always make $ for the company?
what if they din make money for 3 continuous months? still can collect pay check or ask to go?
Regulators
02-03-11, 00:41
last friday was the best entry price for current market. if you itching to park your money for high returns, try Vix. price quite low now, even went up between 60 and 80 before when market is volatile. if you park $500k in vix now and if it ever goes back up to 60, you can retire with that money liao, i am not kidding you
this stock swings alot and for sometimes.
Regulators
02-03-11, 00:47
what company are you talking about? These people trade their own money for a living lah. They sit at home and make millions without stepping out of their house.
chey tot using own $....I am just curious, does it mean that they will always make $ for the company?
what if they din make money for 3 continuous months? still can collect pay check or ask to go?
rattydrama
02-03-11, 00:53
what company are you talking about? These people trade their own money for a living lah. They sit at home and make millions without stepping out of their house.
i dont know anything about forex and tot they are helping others to make money.
I really cannot believe that these trader can time the market so well and make money everytime. Probably need to pay school fee to master the skill.
Regulators
02-03-11, 01:04
comes with experience lah. These traders expose themselves to a wide range of data ranging from job statistics and consumer price index to federal monetary policies etc. some traders are also good at longing and shorting different currency indices, highly complex skill.
i dont know anything about forex and tot they are helping others to make money.
I really cannot believe that these trader can time the market so well and make money everytime. Probably need to pay school fee to master the skill.
devilplate
02-03-11, 01:08
Really power..... :cool:
What you said not true woh, the bears here are you, Stalingrad, jwong, geylang OKT, (somemore you go find out if you bother to). :p
I must admit that I am also a bull. The problem is that I am a perpetual bull. :D
On a more serious note, one can argue using complicated economic theories, data trending or human psychology etc and try to condense them into something coherent, and try to predict how the property market will move. Its no different from the stock market for example. At the end of the day, the question is how much do you trust your judgement?
I believe that if you can afford it, (50-60% of down payment + 3-4 years of mortgage payment cash), and if you believe in the upside potential of the unit then go for it. Using such a criterion, I am able to sleep regardless of a up, down and sideways market. At the end of the day, I believe that buying a property helps to hedge against the constantly increasing inflation.
Unlike the legendary forum guy (can't remember his name), I do not preach that you don't sell your units and hold them till the cows come home. I apply the concept of " trade in 4 green houses for a hotel", which is really up to one's interpretation.
I am not advocating that timing is not important. It still is crucial to a certain extent. Its from my personal experience that units bought during the low do not necessarily generate fantastic capital gain when the market finally move. I guess this is where the theory behind the trough buyers vs the momentum buyers come in.
Wah so expensive? Is it because they have concierge service? Otherwise too expensive. Sure can trim to <$500 per mth. :beats-me-man:
the monthly maint charges for equatorial are also ridiculous - about $800 per mth for a 3 bedder.
That Glydebourne 1 side also facing that flyover, the other side facing road leading into PIE, traffic also very heavy during peak hours, I would say not much different from The Equatorial in terms of noise and traffic.
i was wondering y Equatorial selling only $1500, was wondering issit the highway right smack in the face. The traffic is pretty heavy at time. I attributed the "sunko" price to the bridge as the facing is really quiet unbearable i would imagine. Stevens road with nice facing should not have problem selling 1800-2000 psf ba?
Your friends can buy one apartment every other month that they make 1 mio.
i dont know anything about forex and tot they are helping others to make money.
I really cannot believe that these trader can time the market so well and make money everytime. Probably need to pay school fee to master the skill.
well i mention forex once, and got bashed up over the consistancy returns VS properties.. hahahaha.. those who dont know, dont know..
those who know, needless to say much
a pilot frd, went into forex.. easily earn more than a pilot annually
well i mention forex once, and got bashed up over the consistancy returns VS properties.. hahahaha.. those who dont know, dont know..
those who know, needless to say much
a pilot frd, went into forex.. easily earn more than a pilot annually
Know of many pple whom made $$ during the 09 ran up n quit their job to trade full time. The True is that u cannot always beat the market. Many have tried, thousands have died. The clever man knows when to pull hand break n get out while in the money.
Know of many pple whom made $$ during the 09 ran up n quit their job to trade full time. The True is that u cannot always beat the market. Many have tried, thousands have died. The clever man knows when to pull hand break n get out while in the money.
many died in all sort of investments;from funds,stocks,props,forex.
Only smart survived to sell their stories.
but of cos forex is maximum leverage
It's fair: High risk = High return. I have a relative who is a forex trader who can make lots of $ by looking at the car he drives and next moment a bankrupt.
It's fair: High risk = High return. I have a relative who is a forex trader who can make lots of $ by looking at the car he drives and next moment a bankrupt.
Agree...
Fireworks - Wow factor and big bang and looks fantastic but short lived.
Quiet river - Unassuming, laidback, but stable and always there and running...
Choose what one wants to be.
I must admit that I am also a bull. The problem is that I am a perpetual bull. :D
On a more serious note, one can argue using complicated economic theories, data trending or human psychology etc and try to condense them into something coherent, and try to predict how the property market will move. Its no different from the stock market for example. At the end of the day, the question is how much do you trust your judgement?
I believe that if you can afford it, (50-60% of down payment + 3-4 years of mortgage payment cash), and if you believe in the upside potential of the unit then go for it. Using such a criterion, I am able to sleep regardless of a up, down and sideways market. At the end of the day, I believe that buying a property helps to hedge against the constantly increasing inflation.
Unlike the legendary forum guy (can't remember his name), I do not preach that you don't sell your units and hold them till the cows come home. I apply the concept of " trade in 4 green houses for a hotel", which is really up to one's interpretation.
I am not advocating that timing is not important. It still is crucial to a certain extent. Its from my personal experience that units bought during the low do not necessarily generate fantastic capital gain when the market finally move. I guess this is where the theory behind the trough buyers vs the momentum buyers come in.
Propertism = jlrx
HOW CAN YOU FORGET!!!!!!
comes with experience lah. These traders expose themselves to a wide range of data ranging from job statistics and consumer price index to federal monetary policies etc. some traders are also good at longing and shorting different currency indices, highly complex skill.
It's not complex really... a lot of things can be likened to everyday concepts like food. Just take a leaf from Rojak making.... can practise more at high teas buffets that has it... :)
It's fair: High risk = High return. I have a relative who is a forex trader who can make lots of $ by looking at the car he drives and next moment a bankrupt.
I won't be surprise if he managed to make a comeback with his set of skills.
some bankrupt-er holds more cash than any of us here.
Sure. A bankrupt will need funds to get back to the market and bank will not give them loan unless the person is fully discharged. Just like the founder of Emporium is making a comeback after quite a number of years. Must have never say Die attitude.
I won't be surprise if he managed to make a comeback with his set of skills.
some bankrupt-er holds more cash than any of us here.
Ya ya ya, those get rich quick scheme always have such stories. Put them to test over 20 years and many die a poor guy. Rich people don't get rich by just speculating in the dark over something that moves randomly over short time. This is no difference from gambling at the casino table. The classic story of America's greatest speculator Jesse Livermore is one that everyone should read before they start speculating in forex and futures. :rolleyes:
We have many successful stories of long-term investors and none for speculators (the only one being told of Jesse Livermore is one of greatest sadness story and committing suicide. Imagine he was once more financially powerful than JP Morgan?). :beats-me-man:
well i mention forex once, and got bashed up over the consistancy returns VS properties.. hahahaha.. those who dont know, dont know..
those who know, needless to say much
a pilot frd, went into forex.. easily earn more than a pilot annually
Sure. A bankrupt will need funds to get back to the market and bank will not give them loan unless the person is fully discharged. Just like the founder of Emporium is making a comeback after quite a number of years. Must have never say Die attitude.
Errr. Getting funds? I seen big boss funding a "laundry shop", not necessary going to banks. If these talents are known through words of mouth, boss will come to u.
So if u are good and experienced. funds will come to u.
Every business will have it up and down,that's is business.
And everyone will aso have their up and down.
The guy will have to show a convincing track record. Will you fund a bankrupt who fail in the forex market? In the first place, why did they fail? What are your risk? What is the opportunity cost? etc......
Errr. Getting funds? I seen big boss funding a "laundry shop", not necessary going to banks. If these talents are known through words of mouth.
So if u are good,naturally funds will come to u.
The guy will have to show a convincing track record. Will you fund a bankrupt who fail in the forex market? In the first place, why did they fail? What are your risk? What is the opportunity cost? etc......
ahem.. i think i choose people with experiences and failed before,and they knowing their mistakes to lead to their downfall. never to repeat the mistake.
*or ur preferrence is people who can sell u well,with overpromising stories. and told u they never failed..?
a frd of mine,owe alot people money,forge customers signature, run wf workshop money, cheat here and there..
got funds,operating laundry. own 7 cars,from porsche to honda fit. and upgrading to higher spec lambo,after dispose his gallardo.
so u mean, bankrupt-er or bad reputation cant go far..??
I remember the first thing my mentor told me when I first stepped into the trading pit as a derivative trader was "Learn how to cut loss before you learn how to make money". Hence, till today, I holds the view that in order to be a sucessful trader, one must know that not every trade you do need to be a money making one. Most important is, a trader must has the discipline to cut loss.
Just a different school of thought. Will not associate with them. Money can be made in many ways but has to be legally. They will have to answer to their maker.
ahem.. i think i choose people with experiences and failed before,and they knowing their mistakes to lead to their downfall. never to repeat the mistake.
*or ur preferrence is people who can sell u well,with overpromising stories. and told u they never failed..?
a frd of mine,owe alot people money,forge customers signature, run wf workshop money, cheat here and there..
got funds,operating laundry. own 7 cars,from porsche to honda fit. and upgrading to higher spec lambo,after dispose his gallardo.
so u mean, bankrupt-er or bad reputation cant go far..??
......
a frd of mine,owe alot people money,forge customers signature, run wf workshop money, cheat here and there..
got funds,operating laundry. own 7 cars,from porsche to honda fit. and upgrading to higher spec lambo,after dispose his gallardo.
so u mean, bankrupt-er or bad reputation cant go far..??
Your friend serve how many years in jail?
Are you saying his laundry business can earn enough for him to buy all the 7 cars? He got no other business?
His friend might be like the seafood supplier who got business from all the top-notch hotels in Singapore.
Your friend serve how many years in jail?
Are you saying his laundry business can earn enough for him to buy all the 7 cars? He got no other business?
Your friend serve how many years in jail?
Are you saying his laundry business can earn enough for him to buy all the 7 cars? He got no other business?
Erm...laundry as in washing money or washing clothes? :rolleyes:
Your friend serve how many years in jail?
Are you saying his laundry business can earn enough for him to buy all the 7 cars? He got no other business?
nope,never served any term before.
his laundry is another type of "laundry"
Erm...laundry as in washing money or washing clothes? :rolleyes:
$$....through his opening hang flower joints, pubs, car-dealer shop..
$$....through his opening hang flower joints, pubs, car-dealer shop..
power to him. :cheers1:
He knows the ins and outs of the Singapore system.
However, if he forged customers' signatures, how come no criminal breach of trust ever brought against him?
Just like another forummer here whose friend is bankrupt, can still stay in landed, rent out their HDB and go overseas.
I remember the first thing my mentor told me when I first stepped into the trading pit as a derivative trader was "Learn how to cut loss before you learn how to make money". Hence, till today, I holds the view that in order to be a sucessful trader, one must know that not every trade you do need to be a money making one. Most important is, a trader must has the discipline to cut loss.
Property still the best... Can leverage and no margin call at extremely low interest rate and generating cash flow thru rental...
Tell me what can beat that? And don't need to worry about the company close shop coz you are buying into the country and not a company... So low risk...
If you can hold for 3 - 5 years definitely no problem if you buy freehold and resale..... In good location.....
Especially s shares, so many has disappeared. I pity those who margined on them.
phantom_opera
02-03-11, 19:22
Cons:
1. Transaction cost too high, stamp duty almost 3%, legal fee, bank fee, agent fee etc. Once you buy a property, already down 5%.
2. Subject to government control
3. You need a lot of capital relative to stocks. Without capital, you are not able to commit multiple purchases when the market is having an upward momentum. This is especially so when LTV is now down to 60%.
Agree to points 2 and 3. But for point 1, cos you can negotiate down the price to compensate for the cost of entry. Whereas in the stock market, it's non negotiable. If market doesn't pullback, you have to take the price quoted.
Property still the best... Can leverage and no margin call at extremely low interest rate and generating cash flow thru rental...
Tell me what can beat that? And don't need to worry about the company close shop coz you are buying into the country and not a company... So low risk...
If you can hold for 3 - 5 years definitely no problem if you buy freehold and resale..... In good location.....
There is less chance of a bad property investment in Singapore. Any example of bad investment?
There is less chance of a bad property investment in Singapore. Any example of bad investment?
duchess residences?? :spliff:
I remember the first thing my mentor told me when I first stepped into the trading pit as a derivative trader was "Learn how to cut loss before you learn how to make money". Hence, till today, I holds the view that in order to be a sucessful trader, one must know that not every trade you do need to be a money making one. Most important is, a trader must has the discipline to cut loss.
yes, fully agreed
the first rule as a trader is not how to make money, but how to preseve capital.
Not every trade need to be traded, see the bigger picture, dun trade against the trend
There is less chance of a bad property investment in Singapore. Any example of bad investment?
yes, buying bishan 8 from FEO at launch. took 10 years to break even :scared-3:
Warning: people who are buying at sky high prices from new launches.
yes, buying bishan 8 from FEO at launch. took 10 years to break even :scared-3:
Warning: people who are buying at sky high prices from new launches.
I think give it another 2-3 years can gain already. I wonder if the rental rate there giving good returns to the owners.
I think give it another 2-3 years can gain already. I wonder if the rental rate there giving good returns to the owners.
Rental yield is decent becos of proximity to mrt but with air-conditioned lobbies and all kinds of luxury facilities, the owners must be crying when they pay maintenance - somemore only less than 200 units I think
Rental yield is decent becos of proximity to mrt but with air-conditioned lobbies and all kinds of luxury facilities, the owners must be crying when they pay maintenance - somemore only less than 200 units I think
Bishan 8 has 200 units. Heard maintenance for a 3 bedder is about $300+ pm
yes, fully agreed
the first rule as a trader is not how to make money, but how to preseve capital.
Not every trade need to be traded, see the bigger picture, dun trade against the trend
I personally think that one of the greatest difference between trading and investing into properties is that the former is more fluid and has the advantage of reducing your exposure by hedging into other financial instrument when the portfolio you committed to are not favourable. For example, long or short euro dollar futures and hedge into bonds.....
phantom_opera
02-03-11, 22:37
this forum crouching tiger, hidden dragon .........:scared-5:
VIX not that alarming
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eVIX&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=m200&lang=en-US®ion=US
this forum crouching tiger, hidden dragon .........:scared-5:
VIX not that alarming
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eVIX&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=m200&lang=en-US®ion=US
where do you think some of the members find all that capital to invest in properties. :cheers1:
Regulators
02-03-11, 22:53
it takes some crazy idiot in the middle east, a ballooned oil crisis or another financial crisis to send vix up to 2009 levels again. sti said to correct in april, so from now till april in the toss and turn of the market, vix is recommended
this forum crouching tiger, hidden dragon .........:scared-5:
VIX not that alarming
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eVIX&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=m200&lang=en-US®ion=US
where do you think some of the members find all that capital to invest in properties. :cheers1:
Buy your first hdb from gahmen.... Then save like he'll for 5 years then sell your hdb after 5 years and with the additional money you saved, buy a condo.... Preferably resale and freehold.... Then save for another 10 years and buy another one and use the rental income to pay for your monthly installment...
Buy your first hdb from gahmen.... Then save like he'll for 5 years then sell your hdb after 5 years and with the additional money you saved, buy a condo.... Preferably resale and freehold.... Then save for another 10 years and buy another one and use the rental income to pay for your monthly installment...
Ehem...following the suggestion
2011 - Buy now from garment, BTO?
2016 - TOP
2021 - MOP matured
2021 - Buy FH condo
2031 - Save $$$ to buy second property...
That twenty years wor! Tot can be done much better than that...
Buy your first hdb from gahmen.... Then save like he'll for 5 years then sell your hdb after 5 years and with the additional money you saved, buy a condo.... Preferably resale and freehold.... Then save for another 10 years and buy another one and use the rental income to pay for your monthly installment...
This form of wealth accumulation is way too slow. A typical middle income person in his early 40s will only be able to own a fully paid private and maybe a studio or 2 br unit for rental ? With a cashflow in the region of 1 - 3 k, he is still far from the endpoint of his rat race.
proud owner
03-03-11, 07:39
Buy your first hdb from gahmen.... Then save like he'll for 5 years then sell your hdb after 5 years and with the additional money you saved, buy a condo.... Preferably resale and freehold.... Then save for another 10 years and buy another one and use the rental income to pay for your monthly installment...
too slow
at 25 marry a rich man
after 2 yrs , divorce ..spore law doesnt require a reason
\get half his assets at 27
29 marry again ...
31 divorce
by 35 you can be a multimillionaress
Ehem...following the suggestion
2011 - Buy now from garment, BTO?
2016 - TOP
2021 - MOP matured
2021 - Buy FH condo
2031 - Save $$$ to buy second property...
That twenty years wor! Tot can be done much better than that...
I would propose:
2011 - Buy BTO - start saving for condo
2016 - TOP
2021 - MOP - enough to downpay condo
2021 - Buy FH condo - mortgage supported by rental of HDB
2031 - Save $$$ to buy third property...
At the end of 10 years, one would have 2 properties.
If one needs $12000 mthly passive income upon retirement from rental. One would need 2-3 fully paid up properties. The value of the properties will translate to 4-5 mil.
If one needs $12000 mthly passive income upon retirement from rental. One would need 2-3 fully paid up properties. The value of the properties will translate to 4-5 mil.
agreed. There are still expenses incurred like maintenance, property tax, refurnishing etc...so not easy
Is 20% of rental income for expenses reasonable? That will be left with about $9600 per month. This applies to someone who has already got a fully paid home besides the 2-3 investment properties.
agreed. There are still expenses incurred like maintenance, property tax, refurnishing etc...so not easy
phantom_opera
03-03-11, 09:47
I would propose:
2011 - Buy BTO - start saving for condo
2016 - TOP
2021 - MOP - enough to downpay condo
2021 - Buy FH condo - mortgage supported by rental of HDB
2031 - Save $$$ to buy third property...
At the end of 10 years, one would have 2 properties.
A strategic selection of 99LH is much better than a non-strategic freehold e.g. SouthBank/Citylights vs Vacanza@East
stalingrad
03-03-11, 10:23
not a good time to buy. Today's BT caveat section shows far fewer transactions now then a month ago. the market is definitely losing its froth very quickly.
devilplate
03-03-11, 10:26
not a good time to buy. Today's BT caveat section shows far fewer transactions now then a month ago. the market is definitely losing its froth very quickly.
i noe u cant wait to buy.....
Issnt the game plan "Buy n wait"?
devilplate
03-03-11, 10:40
Issnt the game plan "Buy n wait"?
yes...can aso be 'sell and wait' mah rite? i done tat b4....but only succeed for equities and failed badly for ppty....having some perm seller remorse scars....:ashamed1:
stalingrad
03-03-11, 10:56
i noe u cant wait to buy.....
I am not a speculator. I need to buy one more condo so that my kids don't have to spend too much commuting to their school up north.
stalingrad
03-03-11, 10:58
yes...can aso be 'sell and wait' mah rite? i done tat b4....but only succeed for equities and failed badly for ppty....having some perm seller remorse scars....:ashamed1:
I have begun to short the market. I bought $20k of S&P short a few days ago. I am looking to buy more oil and agricultural ETFs now.
yes...can aso be 'sell and wait' mah rite? i done tat b4....but only succeed for equities and failed badly for ppty....having some perm seller remorse scars....:ashamed1:
Nevermind lah, most impt is IN THE MONEY.
it must feel damn pain to every couple of months read hitting record prices. The same for those wait to buy.
Its pretty similar for shares, end up alot of times cannot loon liao hit at the high point.
Nevermind lah, most impt is IN THE MONEY.
it must feel damn pain to every couple of months read hitting record prices. The same for those wait to buy.
Its pretty similar for shares, end up alot of times cannot loon liao hit at the high point.
If one has a few units, and if you space out the sales throughout the bull run, then the sale prices would sort of even out to the middle of bull trend. Of course, if you are targeting peak prices then it would still fall short.
From my experience, its hard to sell 4-5 units at one go near the peak. You will normally be left with a 1-2 going into the downturn. However, if the units left are prime with a premium view etc, its like a collectible item that will fetch higher in the next upswing.
As an example, I am still holding on to my 2 units at Kembangan suites. My target price is 1500 psf to let go one and 1550 psf to let go the second one. It may go higher to 1700 psf like PI after that but I am satisfied with my target price which is in the higher quartile. If downturn hits before price is achieved, I will keep as there is a premium in the location of FH and less than 100 m to MRT. Please note that I am not doing a salesman talk on KS, although the latest transaction is at 1300 + psf.
BTW, I have the a Daytona as well but its TT.
Same as buying share which averages out with time. When will KS reach $1700psf?
If one has a few units, and if you space out the sales throughout the bull run, then the sale prices would sort of even out to the middle of bull trend. Of course, if you are targeting peak prices then it would still fall short.
From my experience, its hard to sell 4-5 units at one go near the peak. You will normally be left with a 1-2 going into the downturn. However, if the units left are prime with a premium view etc, its like a collectible item that will fetch higher in the next upswing.
As an example, I am still holding on to my 2 units at Kembangan suites. My target price is 1500 psf to let go one and 1550 psf to let go the second one. It may go higher to 1700 psf like PI after that but I am satisfied with my target price which is in the higher quartile. If downturn hits before price is achieved, I will keep as there is a premium in the location of FH and less than 100 m to MRT. Please note that I am not doing a salesman talk on KS, although the latest transaction is at 1300 + psf.
BTW, I have the a Daytona as well but its TT.
All I can say is u got great taste :)
I have begun to short the market. I bought $20k of S&P short a few days ago. I am looking to buy more oil and agricultural ETFs now.
Then you can short property as well since they both hand in hand... Sell Carabelle and rent until prices come down then you buy.... If you dare....
phantom_opera
03-03-11, 15:19
20k short on S&P futures?! Is it real or just NATO?
Technically, it is sort of suicidal to short S&P500 right now. Buy on dip is the right strategy.
Income ceiling of 3r HDB now raised to 5k, HDB going MM soon :eek:
stalingrad
03-03-11, 15:27
20k short on S&P futures?! Is it real or just NATO?
Technically, it is sort of suicidal to short S&P500 right now. Buy on dip is the right strategy.
Income ceiling of 3r HDB now raised to 5k, HDB going MM soon :eek:
the downside to short is limited, but upside is unlimited. sell signals now are everywhere. even if S&P bounces on job reports, it will be temporary.
phantom_opera
03-03-11, 17:48
the downside to short is limited, but upside is unlimited. sell signals now are everywhere. even if S&P bounces on job reports, it will be temporary.
How can short has limited downside but unlimited upside?? :confused:
the downside to short is limited, but upside is unlimited. sell signals now are everywhere. even if S&P bounces on job reports, it will be temporary.
What is your trading stategy for you to short S&P at such market condition?
the downside to short is limited, but upside is unlimited. sell signals now are everywhere. even if S&P bounces on job reports, it will be temporary.
maybe u misunderstood. eg u short a share at $1, your limited GAIN is when its drops to 0. Your unlimited LOST is when it goes up to $100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. This is of cos in theory.
Anything can happen in the stock market. The best time to short is at bloodbath period..... now worldwide economy is "recovering". Be very careful of your short positions.
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