mr funny
26-03-11, 02:00
http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC110311-0000201/Three-evils-in-this-world
Three evils in this world
by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Mar 11, 2011
There are three evils in this world, said one of my colleagues a few days ago. There are lies, statistics and research. He was joking, of course, but I understood his point.
Compared to only five years ago, there is a lot more real estate stuff - data, comments and analyses - in the public domain these days, both in the traditional media and on the Internet.
There is so much of it out there that it simply overwhelms. Some data confirm the obvious, while others - from the way they are presented with critical omissions - are downright misleading - hence, my colleague's comments.
Has the proliferation of data and analyses shed more light on the market? Most are descriptive, while those with insights are few and far between.
In my opinion, most of the data have been analysed to "death" but we are nowhere closer to better understanding the current property bull run. What we need to know is the main motivation of the buyers, not who they are. We already have a fair idea of who these buyers are.
My stand on our real estate "problem", if we can call it a problem, is that it has now gone beyond the realm of real estate. It is now a money "problem", which means that what we need is more financial data relating to the housing sector.
This lack or absence of relevant data in the public domain has caused undue frustration and a lot of hair-pulling among many in the industry who feel that maybe some of the cooling measures do nothing and are totally unnecessary.
Hence, when the Credit Bureau released its data on outstanding consumer home loans, we began to have a better appreciation of the housing market. It was insightful.
However, what little information the Credit Bureau has released to the media is incomplete and in broad categories, e.g. there is no differentiation between housing loans for HDB resale flats and private homes. It would be too much to ask them to expend additional resources to group the data in the way we want them as their objectives are totally different from market analysts.
As researchers, we would love to get hold of these data as they represent a hitherto untapped source, rich with information.
There were some real estate statistics presented in Parliament last week but, judging by the good market response to property launches over the weekend, the figures now do not look so reassuring and cast some doubt on the effectiveness or appropriateness of recent cooling measures.
The frustration is beginning to show - the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore is in the process of setting up a new unit to conduct targeted research into issues that concern the property market.
Maybe what we need is not more detailed analyses of the data we presently have but to have access to more relevant data.
I may be asking a lot here but the Monetary Authority of Singapore could lend a big hand by providing the real estate industry with a more comprehensive set of housing-related financial data than what the Credit Bureau is currently releasing. Although it has different responsibilities from the Ministry of National Development, which is the authority in charge of housing, this may be the time to share this information in the nation's interest.
Finally, I cannot end my piece without some comments on the record land price per unit paid for a Good Class Bungalow (GCB) at Cluny Road, which has been sold for S$33 million, or about S$2,038 per sq ft on the freehold land area of about 16,200 sq ft.
The seller is understood to be an investment banker, a British national who is a Singapore Permanent Resident. The buyer is said to be Singapore-listed Midas Holdings executive chairman Chen Wei Ping. The former China national is now a Singapore citizen.
Allowing a permanent resident to buy a GCB is a privilege we accord some foreigners befitting their status in the business world. The fact that the citizen buyer was a former China national highlights once again the spending power of Chinese investors and the kind of impact they can have on our property market.
Colin Tan is head, Research & Consultancy, at Chesterton Suntec International.
Three evils in this world
by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Mar 11, 2011
There are three evils in this world, said one of my colleagues a few days ago. There are lies, statistics and research. He was joking, of course, but I understood his point.
Compared to only five years ago, there is a lot more real estate stuff - data, comments and analyses - in the public domain these days, both in the traditional media and on the Internet.
There is so much of it out there that it simply overwhelms. Some data confirm the obvious, while others - from the way they are presented with critical omissions - are downright misleading - hence, my colleague's comments.
Has the proliferation of data and analyses shed more light on the market? Most are descriptive, while those with insights are few and far between.
In my opinion, most of the data have been analysed to "death" but we are nowhere closer to better understanding the current property bull run. What we need to know is the main motivation of the buyers, not who they are. We already have a fair idea of who these buyers are.
My stand on our real estate "problem", if we can call it a problem, is that it has now gone beyond the realm of real estate. It is now a money "problem", which means that what we need is more financial data relating to the housing sector.
This lack or absence of relevant data in the public domain has caused undue frustration and a lot of hair-pulling among many in the industry who feel that maybe some of the cooling measures do nothing and are totally unnecessary.
Hence, when the Credit Bureau released its data on outstanding consumer home loans, we began to have a better appreciation of the housing market. It was insightful.
However, what little information the Credit Bureau has released to the media is incomplete and in broad categories, e.g. there is no differentiation between housing loans for HDB resale flats and private homes. It would be too much to ask them to expend additional resources to group the data in the way we want them as their objectives are totally different from market analysts.
As researchers, we would love to get hold of these data as they represent a hitherto untapped source, rich with information.
There were some real estate statistics presented in Parliament last week but, judging by the good market response to property launches over the weekend, the figures now do not look so reassuring and cast some doubt on the effectiveness or appropriateness of recent cooling measures.
The frustration is beginning to show - the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore is in the process of setting up a new unit to conduct targeted research into issues that concern the property market.
Maybe what we need is not more detailed analyses of the data we presently have but to have access to more relevant data.
I may be asking a lot here but the Monetary Authority of Singapore could lend a big hand by providing the real estate industry with a more comprehensive set of housing-related financial data than what the Credit Bureau is currently releasing. Although it has different responsibilities from the Ministry of National Development, which is the authority in charge of housing, this may be the time to share this information in the nation's interest.
Finally, I cannot end my piece without some comments on the record land price per unit paid for a Good Class Bungalow (GCB) at Cluny Road, which has been sold for S$33 million, or about S$2,038 per sq ft on the freehold land area of about 16,200 sq ft.
The seller is understood to be an investment banker, a British national who is a Singapore Permanent Resident. The buyer is said to be Singapore-listed Midas Holdings executive chairman Chen Wei Ping. The former China national is now a Singapore citizen.
Allowing a permanent resident to buy a GCB is a privilege we accord some foreigners befitting their status in the business world. The fact that the citizen buyer was a former China national highlights once again the spending power of Chinese investors and the kind of impact they can have on our property market.
Colin Tan is head, Research & Consultancy, at Chesterton Suntec International.