View Full Version : When will Luxury, bigger units catch up with MM & OCR
Guys the trend for the last two years have been OCR and MM units in CCR, what do you think happen to all the demand for 'normal' size condo demand in CCR? When do you think demand will come back....
There are quite a no. of caveats lodged for 999LH Emerald Garden at Club Street in District 1 not far from robinson suites/clift recently for 2 bedder units of about 900sqft. People are still comfortable with price range about $1.6 mil.
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33 Club Street #11-26
999 Yrs From 01/10/1827
$1582
980
$1550k
08 Mar 11
33 Club Street #02-16
999 Yrs From 01/10/1827
$1568
829
$1300k
08 Mar 11
33 Club Street #04-04
999 Yrs From 01/10/1827
$1550
990
$1535k
01 Mar 11
33 Club Street #03-08
999 Yrs From 01/10/1827
$1559
969
$1510k
18 Feb 11
33 Club Street #05-27
999 Yrs From 01/10/1827
$1580
936
$1480k
24 Jan 11
33 Club Street #11-23
999 Yrs From 01/10/1827
$1599
926
$1480k
17 Jan 11
Guys the trend for the last two years have been OCR and MM units in CCR, what do you think happen to all the demand for 'normal' size condo demand in CCR? When do you think demand will come back....
the problem is the 40% LTV required on the 2nd property. Average Singaporean will find it "shiong" to put that $$$$ in a normal size OCR/RCR and even more in CCR. But for developments with strong design attributes and desirable attributes i think demand will always be there.
But then again, only the truly rich will benefit a 40% LTV. Suppressed CCR prices will be easily accessible to them.
the problem is the 40% LTV required on the 2nd property. Average Singaporean will find it "shiong" to put that $$$$ in a normal size OCR/RCR and even more in CCR. But for developments with strong design attributes and desirable attributes i think demand will always be there.
But then again, only the truly rich will benefit a 40% LTV. Suppressed CCR prices will be easily accessible to them.
There may be another way of looking at the impact of 40% LTV.
There may investors weighing the option of buying 1 unit of property at 2 mil or 2 units of property at 1 mil each. Assuming they do not have an existing loan, they might go for the 2 mil property because of the 20% LTV limit for one 1 property.....:beats-me-man: Otherwise they will kanna the 40% LTV for the 2nd property.:confused:
What happened to all the buyers of multiple million dollars condo in CCR during 2007? Cant be that suddenly the remaking story and the hip and happening Singapore become boring again and all the rich buyers dried up? Bythe way Abercrombie coming to Singapore in 3rd Q 2011... 4 storey flagship stoe at Knightsbridge... The only flagship outside of japan in Asia.... Singapore is indeed getting quite hip.... So wondering where all the rich and hip crowd went with their money
What happened to all the buyers of multiple million dollars condo in CCR during 2007? Cant be that suddenly the remaking story and the hip and happening Singapore become boring again and all the rich buyers dried up? Bythe way Abercrombie coming to Singapore in 3rd Q 2011... 4 storey flagship stoe at Knightsbridge... The only flagship outside of japan in Asia.... Singapore is indeed getting quite hip.... So wondering where all the rich and hip crowd went with their money
Most prob London? Hype Park
One Hyde park... Average price 6000 psf and it pounds ya lol.... Rig smack beside hyde park and along knightsbridge.....
here not expensive enough. The richest and the oil $$$ didnt flow here "yet"
That's wh I am asking fellow forummers.... Where have all the super rich gone to?
devilplate
27-03-11, 00:48
That's wh I am asking fellow forummers.... Where have all the super rich gone to?
I only noe teddybear and ppty_owner 'made it' ....others still goto depend on rental if bot for investment....
ppty_owner MIA for a while oredi....so u only left with one person to answer ur qn:D
Looks like no one knows the answer
devilplate
27-03-11, 15:19
When STI cross 3600 ;)
not sure whether tat helps anot....
although buying sentiment will be improved but the 4yrs SSD still there....:2cents:
Wild Falcon
27-03-11, 16:42
U mean when will luxury property appreciate greater than non-luxury property? Looking at the horrible rental yields of luxury property today, very difficult - unless the superrich PRC and Indians come in droves. Unfortunately, it appears that even these investors nowadays look at fundamentals and cash flows, so if the question is when is Orchard Residences going to double to $10,000 psf like some OCR properties have appreciated from $400psf to $800psf? The answer is it may never happen, not in my lifetime.
kingkong1984
27-03-11, 23:36
simple rule lah... its mice and rice. So much rice can feed some mice. Some mice can feed some cats only.
U mean when will luxury property appreciate greater than non-luxury property? Looking at the horrible rental yields of luxury property today, very difficult - unless the superrich PRC and Indians come in droves. Unfortunately, it appears that even these investors nowadays look at fundamentals and cash flows, so if the question is when is Orchard Residences going to double to $10,000 psf like some OCR properties have appreciated from $400psf to $800psf? The answer is it may never happen, not in my lifetime.
your example is not too fair..... 5k apreciate is 12.5x of your 400 psf appreciation. U do know 5k appreciate 10% is more than 400 psf liao right.
assuming both is 1000 sqft
Orch Resid is $5m, x 10% profit is 500k.......
OCR is 400k x 100% is 400k profit only.....
The quantum base is different.
Orch can go up another $500 psf vs OCR going up 500 psf? which is more likely?
all things being constant.
When can we expect a 30-50% increase in CCR prices? Where have all the indon, Chinese, Indians gone to? They were coming in droves in 2007
When can we expect a 30-50% increase in CCR prices? Where have all the indon, Chinese, Indians gone to? They were coming in droves in 2007
they have gone to buy OCR lor.
bargain hunter
28-03-11, 09:44
ONLY eight non-landed homes have been sold in the once property hot spot of Sentosa Cove in the first two months of the year.
This is down from 17 transactions in the last three months of last year and well under the second quarter of last year when the 71 sales were recorded. Then, the launch of City Developments' The Residences at W Singapore accounted for 19 of the total sales.
Property watchers keep an eye on the Sentosa Cove transactions as the area is regarded as an exclusive segment of the local property market, where buyers opt for the unique lifestyle.
Agents reckon that prices of the condos there - all leasehold - some of which have sold for more than $2,000 psf have not moved much, with investors turning their attention to other parts of Singapore.
That may be one reason why sales seem to have dried up. In comparison, new home sales for January and February came to more than 1,000 units each month.
Other factors could be the lack of new launches and a large number of unsold units remaining. One property agent said: 'It is a buyers' market.'
The eight sales recorded until March 8 this year totalled $44 million and included new homes and subsale and resale transactions. Some sales occurred in the Seascape and Marina Collection estates, according to caveats lodged with the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
However, while the appeal of condos seems to be fading with fewer people asking for viewings, landed homes sales on Sentosa Cove appear to be holding up.
Experts said that a segmented market might be emerging on Sentosa. The reasons for the sales slump likely include the lack of new launches and marketing activity and the big supply of condos - some already completed - that remains unsold.
Mr Tan Kok Keong, OrangeTee's head of research and consultancy, said: 'Enquiries have slowed a little but that's also a function of a lack of marketing activities since there haven't been many ads recently... Once a new launch takes place, it creates a buzz and will bring about transactions in neighbouring projects as well,' he added.
Developers have had a bumper year with healthy cash flow and so have strong holding power, and seem to be biding their time.
There is certainly not a shortage of stock.
As at Feb 28, at least 481 homes from five projects have yet to find buyers.
Ho Bee's Turquoise has 48 completed flats sitting unsold but 41 units have not been launched and are officially not on sale.
CDL executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng told the firm's results briefing last month that it does not plan to launch any more units at The Residences at W Singapore in Sentosa Cove.
It has sold only 21 of the 56 units released in the 228-unit project.
Mr Kwek said of the project: 'I can sell it very cheap because my land cost is cheap but I am not prepared to sell it. I have holding power, I will keep it and make it an investment, and later when there is good demand I will release and move on.'
Experts said condo home prices will likely hold steady as there is almost no land left for sale and developers are confident that once construction around Sentosa Cove is complete, buyers will stream back.
Bungalows seem to be bucking the trend of slower sales, with agents continuing to get good responses from their listings.
Newsman Realty managing director K. H. Tan said that after a slightly slower fourth quarter, interest is picking up again with his firm holding up to 20 viewings a week. Genuine offers have also been tabled, he added.
Caveats show that only two bungalows have been sold this year to March 8.
But Mr Tan said his firm has closed four other landed transactions whose caveats have yet to be lodged. A few others are in negotiation.
Sentosa Cove is the only place where foreigners without permanent resident status can buy landed homes.
The chief executive of Global Property Strategic Alliance, Mr Jeffrey Hong, said bungalows can also be customised for buyers.
But condos involve shared facilities and compete with prime apartments on the mainland, so that may deter the well-heeled.
'Developers are probably also waiting to see how the January measures affect the market... Condo prices will probably hold stable or if it moves up, it'll be by less than 3 per cent,' added Mr Hong.
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phantom_opera
28-03-11, 10:28
CCR performance is pegged to STI (blue chips), as simple as that. With STI retreated from 3.3k back to 3k .... good luck to CCR :2cents:
Ah.... Finally some theories.... Anymore observation and views on why CCR prices not rising as much?
devilplate
28-03-11, 10:56
Ah.... Finally some theories.... Anymore observation and views on why CCR prices not rising as much?
i said b4....4yrs SSD turned off richie rich investors.....in fact end of last yr CCR shows signs of picking up....but den ....
phantom_opera
28-03-11, 10:57
CCR investors are normally professionals, they have exposure to global market and may distribute their investment across multiple asset classes. I think it is pretty obvious where global hot money is right now - commodities, gold, silver ... and I would say US stock market
Agree with devilplate, SSD is a turn off for professional investors.
stalingrad
28-03-11, 11:02
I have personally seen many large properties in CCR languishing in the market for many many months, if not years, without even a call from a prospective buyer.
I believe that the best days for CCR properties are over and now it may be a straight line down for a few more years. the reason is very simple. the sights of MNEs are now set on China, and the influx of foreigners to Singapore are mostly for mid to low level positions that do not provide housing benefits.
phantom_opera
28-03-11, 11:05
If CCR is obviously weakening ... high SSD may not stay for long :p
I have personally seen many large properties in CCR languishing in the market for many many months, if not years, without even a call from a prospective buyer.
I believe that the best days for CCR properties are over and now it may be a straight line down for a few more years. the reason is very simple. the sights of MNEs are now set on China, and the influx of foreigners to Singapore are mostly for mid to low level positions that do not provide housing benefits.
Hi Stalin.... When was the traffic jam at holland road? And also which CCR properties languishing for years without buyers? Please advise data so we can check... By the way, mnc moving to china are the lower end job....
Singapore attaching the high value high end job.... Private banking, investment banking, tourism, education, medical research..... All these should bring in high net worth and high paying jobs and that should drive up rental and CCR home prices right?
Wild Falcon
28-03-11, 11:41
Got weaken meh? PSF keeps getting higher or stay firm as units gets smaller - look at recent CCR launches Devonshire, Anson, Stevens Suites, Holland Suites, Loft@Stevens, Loft@Holland etc. PSF is firm leh - just total quantum significantly weakening. PSF still strong. Analysts only look only at PSF, doesn't care if value of investments/total quantum are declining quite drastically.
If CCR is obviously weakening ... high SSD may not stay for long :p
stalingrad
28-03-11, 12:22
Hi Stalin.... When was the traffic jam at holland road? And also which CCR properties languishing for years without buyers? Please advise data so we can check... By the way, mnc moving to china are the lower end job....
Singapore attaching the high value high end job.... Private banking, investment banking, tourism, education, medical research..... All these should bring in high net worth and high paying jobs and that should drive up rental and CCR home prices right?
Friday, March 18 was the date of the jam that I was talking about. We departed from our home in West Coast and it was smooth going until we approached holland village at around 7:30pm, and the jam there extended to scotts road, holland road, river valley road, until we gave up and decided to wait out the jam at QE square.
it did not appear to be caused by any accident. Just a normal day in D10. what needs it? by the way, while we waited at UE square we decided to have a meal. the meal was good, but the noise from the road was just horrible and we could not hear each other when a lambo passed by every ten seconds. haha, if that is what D10 is about, I guess I perfectly understand why properties in D10 are not moving, not at those prices.
stalingrad
28-03-11, 12:38
by the way, if you take into consideration the vacant periods of D10 properties, the true rental yield is less than 2%. ouch!!! I guess sooner or later, the owners have to say "enough is enough" and let go.
my friend's condo at Casabella is still sitting pretty, pretty but unoccupied, after four months on the rental market. he may have to cut the rent by 30% to get it occupied. If we extrapolate from this small sample, the property values in D10 are likely to correct by at least 20% in a year or two.
Thanks for the confirmation... Will find out why... Hopefully LTA respond...btw, yes I hope prices correct by 20 % so that can buy another one to keep.... If CCR drop by 20% how mucyph do you think OCR will drop haha....
by the way, if you take into consideration the vacant periods of D10 properties, the true rental yield is less than 2%. ouch!!! I guess sooner or later, the owners have to say "enough is enough" and let go.
my friend's condo at Casabella is still sitting pretty, pretty but unoccupied, after four months on the rental market. he may have to cut the rent by 30% to get it occupied. If we extrapolate from this small sample, the property values in D10 are likely to correct by at least 20% in a year or two.
OCR got high rental yield and is undervalued but...... They also got.....
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...119228/1/.html
Private home prices down slightly in February: NUS Index
Posted: 28 March 2011 1412 hrs
SINGAPORE: Private home prices in Singapore fell slightly in February, according to the NUS Singapore Residential Price Index.
The overall index fell 0.4% from January.
The index covers completed non-landed properties in the central and non-central regions.
The index for properties in the central area rose 1% in February, but that for non-central properties showed a decline of 1.5% from the previous month.
The figures followed steps taken by the government in January to cool speculation in the property market.
The measures included higher stamp duties for sellers and a reduction in the amount of credit available to those who already have outstanding mortgages.
The NUS Private Residential Price Index is a transactions-based indicator that tracks the month-on-month price movements of private, non-landed residential properties in Singapore.
- CNA/ir
1.5% deline in price . If we extrapolate the situation, with 22k HDB supply this year alone and massive GLS, OCR is more likely to "affected" . When D10 rich owners throw in towel n cause a 20% drop, good luck to all of us........ Yes west coast will not be spared.
Wild Falcon
28-03-11, 20:10
Hopefully no more cooling measures. In the first place, resale prices are stagnant. 1% increase or 1% decrease is probably not statistically significant due to different mix, i.e. prices are stable. Cannot be every quarter exactly the same basket of property in each region.
devilplate
28-03-11, 20:19
I tink we shd tok about individual project rather den ccr or ocr.... I believe winners can b found in both segments... Some older fh condo doesnt really appreciated much for the past 1 yr.... Cud b a gem or trap... Hehe
I tink we shd tok about individual project rather den ccr or ocr.... I believe winners can b found in both segments... Some older fh condo doesnt really appreciated much for the past 1 yr.... Cud b a gem or trap... Hehe
Agree with u on this point. How can 1 friend n 1 condo extrapolate into D10 drop 20%? 1 unit doesn't represent D10.
Wild Falcon
28-03-11, 21:38
But I think the general observation is prices for resale across most projects and districts are quite stagnant for the past 2 months.
I think it will stay like this.... But when US and EU recovers then CCR will catch up with the growth...
Wild Falcon
30-03-11, 17:49
I am not that sanguine. I believe prices for resale will be stagnant (i.e. hovers +/- 1-2% around the mean) for the entire year. And next year when supply comes on stream (Yes, the dreaded 2012 TOP party), prices may start to correct. Very hard to see prices shooting through the roof for resale. For new launches CCR shoeboxes (which affects URA index) - prices may still head higher. Look at Loft @ Holland sold out at $2,200psf, the PSF is almost double the vicinity which will skew the index upwards. But it doesn't mean the standard size units in the vicinity can come anywhere close to $2,200psf.
Many of the FH D10 along Bukit Timah is selling around 1200psf. Pretty low isnt it when many suburb project are selling above that?
East coast is also higher than BT on average.
Has BT lost its shine in the last decade, or it has always been like this?
I am not that sanguine. I believe prices for resale will be stagnant (i.e. hovers +/- 1-2% around the mean) for the entire year. And next year when supply comes on stream (Yes, the dreaded 2012 TOP party), prices may start to correct. Very hard to see prices shooting through the roof for resale. For new launches CCR shoeboxes (which affects URA index) - prices may still head higher. Look at Loft @ Holland sold out at $2,200psf, the PSF is almost double the vicinity which will skew the index upwards. But it doesn't mean the standard size units in the vicinity can come anywhere close to $2,200psf.
Do refer to NUS residential index, it does not include new launches. This will be the accurate measure.
bargain hunter
30-03-11, 18:59
generally, if u are able to buy BT at 1200psf, it is old and the units are larger. New 1200psf for suburb, even if not MM are significantly smaller than the old BT units. If you multiply to get the quantum, you will see that there is a big difference and the BT unit is less "affordable" in a sense for mass market consumption.
Many of the FH D10 along Bukit Timah is selling around 1200psf. Pretty low isnt it when many suburb project are selling above that?
East coast is also higher than BT on average.
Has BT lost its shine in the last decade, or it has always been like this?
Many of the FH D10 along Bukit Timah is selling around 1200psf.
...hmm many ... ? I thought only those from the infamous tessarina onwards are still hovering around 1200, and that's almost the end of BT....
Many of the FH D10 along Bukit Timah is selling around 1200psf. Pretty low isnt it when many suburb project are selling above that?
East coast is also higher than BT on average.
Has BT lost its shine in the last decade, or it has always been like this?
Can share some good Loban for reference?
The Steling, Maplewoods (both right beside future MRT Station). And several others around the area. Granted they are 10+ years but still i think its good value.
I think MRT will tranform the area in 2015. And should the gov release the empty land at Beautyworld Station for mix commercial and maybe we get a development like 112 Katong Mall.
devilplate
31-03-11, 11:32
The Steling, Maplewoods (both right beside future MRT Station). And several others around the area. Granted they are 10+ years but still i think its good value.
I think MRT will tranform the area in 2015. And should the gov release the empty land at Beautyworld Station for mix commercial and maybe we get a development like 112 Katong Mall.
those 2 r under D21 leh...
sterling for eg: end 06 prices only 7xxpsf...hehe:D
i tink D10 balmoral tat side got 1200psf...:scared-1:
O hehe... pai sei :ashamed1:
i tink D10 balmoral tat side got 1200psf...:scared-1:
where got. all at least 1500/1600. For example The Balmoral if got 1200 I buy already ;)
devilplate
31-03-11, 13:43
where got. all at least 1500/1600. For example The Balmoral if got 1200 I buy already ;)
i meant to type: i tot balmoral tat side got 1200psf:scared-1:
If Balmoral got $1200psf, just give cheque, not need to view...and I doubt forumers will know...heard any smoke/whisper, agent 1st one to GRAB!
devilplate
31-03-11, 13:51
If Balmoral got $1200psf, just give cheque, not need to view...and I doubt forumers will know...heard any smoke/whisper, agent 1st one to GRAB!
ya la...1200psf....can flip option easily....haha
If Balmoral got $1200psf, just give cheque, not need to view...and I doubt forumers will know...heard any smoke/whisper, agent 1st one to GRAB!
balmoral at 1200psf in this current age?! getting one at such a prize better than hitting 4D or toto.
Wild Falcon
01-04-11, 09:47
Strike toto better lah - million dollar in pocket. Only 20% or so higher than 1200psf, how can be better than toto? 20% return = toto? Faint.
balmoral at 1200psf in this current age?! getting one at such a prize better than hitting 4D or toto.
Strike toto better lah - million dollar in pocket. Only 20% or so higher than 1200psf, how can be better than toto? 20% return = toto? Faint.
you need a lesson in probability?? toto sure strike???:doh:
:D :beats-me-man:
Very often, some people can speak without using brain.
Don't need to be so serious with them. :p
you need a lesson in probability?? toto sure strike???:doh:
ymgsterling
01-04-11, 23:59
The Steling, Maplewoods (both right beside future MRT Station). And several others around the area. Granted they are 10+ years but still i think its good value.
I think MRT will tranform the area in 2015. And should the gov release the empty land at Beautyworld Station for mix commercial and maybe we get a development like 112 Katong Mall.
Comparing to Floridan, certainly these 2 condos prices are on the low side.
But to Cascadia, i think their current market prices are reasonable.
Personally, I think Sterling should command a higher price compared to Maplewoods, given that 1) newer 2) more exclusive 3) its potential with the release of KTM land.
My 2cts worth.
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