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CCR
06-04-11, 00:56
Guys, what is the mood like in the market currently? Anyone been to any show flats? Resale ? Still holding strong or cooling down ?

med80009
06-04-11, 01:20
Guys, what is the mood like in the market currently? Anyone been to any show flats? Resale ? Still holding strong or cooling down ?

Depends who you ask. An agent will say to the seller: "property cycle peaking liao better cash out now !"; and to a buyer:"property prices can only go up, target population 6.5 million, buy now or miss the boat !"

At least that's what i'll say if i'm one ;)

CCR
06-04-11, 01:21
But we are not agents what..... So seriously does anyone sense market quieten down?

ysyap
06-04-11, 05:08
Based on statistics and figures, market definitely has quietened significantly. Passed by an ECs project. Nice lightings and spacious showroom with only about 4 agents standing behind the counter. No one else. I believe there are still demands but potential buyers are just watching cautiously, waiting for the next opportunity to enter again. :cheers6:

devilplate
06-04-11, 08:54
Based on statistics and figures, market definitely has quietened significantly. Passed by an ECs project. Nice lightings and spacious showroom with only about 4 agents standing behind the counter. No one else. I believe there are still demands but potential buyers are just watching cautiously, waiting for the next opportunity to enter again. :cheers6:

depending on projects...u go to those luxury projects now even during wkends....high chance u r the only buyer there

colgate
06-04-11, 09:40
What about resale? Have been looking for a unit for quite some time already and quite demoralising to see the price going up instead of softening. The data realeased so far is conflicting also... make me even more confuse after reading the various reports.

devilplate
06-04-11, 09:48
What about resale? Have been looking for a unit for quite some time already and quite demoralising to see the price going up instead of softening. The data realeased so far is conflicting also... make me even more confuse after reading the various reports.

u often realised the asking prices is 5-10% above latest caveats rite? hehe

gn108
06-04-11, 09:51
Transaction/volume is defo down but prices are either flat or even up.
I am surprised with some of the caveats filed.
It;s now down to external shocks and interest rates...

scsc
06-04-11, 10:19
What about resale? Have been looking for a unit for quite some time already and quite demoralising to see the price going up instead of softening. The data realeased so far is conflicting also... make me even more confuse after reading the various reports.

As in pte residential resales? buy if u die die need one to stay other than HDB...
Else wait for strong external shocks to Spore cos it works usually but u must have the stomach to time & bite when the herd is fleeing... the contrarian way

devilplate
06-04-11, 10:21
As in pte residential resales? buy if u die die need one to stay other than HDB...
Else wait for strong external shocks to Spore cos it works usually but u must have the stomach to time & bite when the herd is fleeing... the contrarian way

while waiting for external shocks....better pray the prices dun rise too high....the higher it goes....the higher will be the next trough

scsc
06-04-11, 10:57
while waiting for external shocks....better pray the prices dun rise too high....the higher it goes....the higher will be the next trough

yes, im wary of that too... thght u like big bubbles:hell-hath-no-fury:... hehe

devilplate
06-04-11, 10:58
yes, im wary of that too... thght u like big bubbles:hell-hath-no-fury:... hehe

big bubbles so tat i can offload some and there will be more firesales during next downturn as well.....every yr gradual rise of let say 5%+40% downpayment....meaning prices r getting harder to crash during next downturn

azeoprop
06-04-11, 11:18
Just make sure that your investments and job are not badly affected by external shocks also. :2cents: Or else how to buy.

scsc
06-04-11, 11:36
Just make sure that your investments and job are not badly affected by external shocks also. :2cents: Or else how to buy.

take up multiple jobs loh....

devilplate
06-04-11, 11:37
take up multiple jobs loh....
den like dat become slave to ur tenants wor:scared-3: :p

colgate
06-04-11, 11:59
As in pte residential resales? buy if u die die need one to stay other than HDB...
Else wait for strong external shocks to Spore cos it works usually but u must have the stomach to time & bite when the herd is fleeing... the contrarian way

Yup, looking at pte residential resale for home stay and like Devilplate mentioned most of the owners are asking 5-10% above the latest caveat and are quite firm on their selling price. Don't deny that i have the herd mentatlity also but then can't help worrying that the price will soon be out of reach if i don't coommit soon.
HDB is abit too pricy for me swallow due to the high valuation and also the crazy cov that sellers are asking.

ysyap
06-04-11, 12:15
Yup, looking at pte residential resale for home stay and like Devilplate mentioned most of the owners are asking 5-10% above the latest caveat and are quite firm on their selling price. Don't deny that i have the herd mentatlity also but then can't help worrying that the price will soon be out of reach if i don't coommit soon.
HDB is abit too pricy for me swallow due to the high valuation and also the crazy cov that sellers are asking.
But at 5-10% above caveat, private property owners are also asking crazy prices... HDB can be crazy precisely becoz private housing prices are also crazy! In the long run, prices will climb, 10 years or 20 years. You will never find a landed going for $200k today like in the 1970s. With inflation, your property price today will surely appreciate. Since you are getting for home stay, no worries! Just go buy now when interest rates are still low so can enjoy some low monthly mortgage payment rather than waiting till interest rate goes up and what if prices still increase ... super loser then :doh:. (But remember to calculate your monthly installment based on 3% instead of the current 1% to have a more realistic view of your monthly commitment). Time is on your side if u are staying in there. Unless u are very certain prices will fall, then hold on. Otherwise, go for that dream home soon!

amk
06-04-11, 14:09
Guys, what is the mood like in the market currently? Anyone been to any show flats? Resale ? Still holding strong or cooling down ?
based on the few projects I have interest on, resale volume is significantly down. On the other hand, asking price is up. since owners are only paying a tiny 1% mortgage, there is no incentive to cut price.

avo7007
06-04-11, 14:12
asking price is up. since owners are only paying a tiny 1% mortgage, there is no incentive to cut price.

This is what we Chinese call "eat full, sell buns":)

andy
06-04-11, 21:12
based on the few projects I have interest on, resale volume is significantly down. On the other hand, asking price is up. since owners are only paying a tiny 1% mortgage, there is no incentive to cut price.

So what would be your advice to sellers of resale? Likewise what would be your advice to buyers now?

andy
06-04-11, 21:13
based on the few projects I have interest on, resale volume is significantly down. On the other hand, asking price is up. since owners are only paying a tiny 1% mortgage, there is no incentive to cut price.

So what will be your advice to sellers of resale now who want to sell?

sh
06-04-11, 21:36
So what would be your advice to sellers of resale? Likewise what would be your advice to buyers now?

advice to resellers. Do you have a better use for the cash you'll be getting? Sit in bank and wait for market to crash? May not happen. Just have enough cash to ride out another crisis (if it happens).

advice to buyers. Take your time to shop. It might take you months before you find anything you like. If it's something you really like, what's paying another 10% more for it? Unless you're expecting a major correction of much more than 10%.

:2cents:

ysyap
06-04-11, 21:44
So what will be your advice to sellers of resale now who want to sell?

If you have decided on selling and its just a matter of timing, then start looking for buyers... Put a high asking price and see if there's someone who's willing to pay. Drag for about 2 months till election to see how market is responding. If got seller to pay your asking price, you won't lose out. If don't have then adjust accordingly based on next 2 months' observation lor... :D That is a seller talking....

But buyers will tell you to stop raising price further... inflation is >> 5% already...

CCR
06-04-11, 22:02
Same feedback here... All resale sellers 5 to 10 % higher... And I actually come across two of my frens actually managed to transact at that price they are asking.... Will be reflected in Apr data... Asked my fern in DTZ investment sales team, he say market still very firm, no incentives from owners to sell coz interest low and all got jobs and bonus from last year so no rush to sell.... Moving forward DTZ views is that unless got big external shocks, cooling measures will have no use..... I am really surprised that the latest measure no use man.... Any other feedback from other gurus here?

DaytonaSS
06-04-11, 22:09
Same feedback here... All resale sellers 5 to 10 % higher... And I actually come across two of my frens actually managed to transact at that price they are asking.... Will be reflected in Apr data... Asked my fern in DTZ investment sales team, he say market still very firm, no incentives from owners to sell coz interest low and all got jobs and bonus from last year so no rush to sell.... Moving forward DTZ views is that unless got big external shocks, cooling measures will have no use..... I am really surprised that the latest measure no use man.... Any other feedback from other gurus here?

Cannot say no use!!! Wah lau later reporter see liao go write newspaper ! MBT later give it to us how? It's damn useful, 90% 1 house owner will feel the pinch with 40%.

CCR
06-04-11, 22:31
I feel the pinch coz no money to buy another property coz of 40% LTV... Really want to buy one I really like but stuck with the LTV.. Got enough for 30% only sian.... So it's affecting me.... But dont knowmwhy others got so much money can keep buying and sellers instead of lowering prices, can call higher prices some more....

devilplate
06-04-11, 23:00
I feel the pinch coz no money to buy another property coz of 40% LTV... Really want to buy one I really like but stuck with the LTV.. Got enough for 30% only sian.... So it's affecting me.... But dont knowmwhy others got so much money can keep buying and sellers instead of lowering prices, can call higher prices some more....

how to tame the liquidity monster:hell-hath-no-fury:

btw always been taking 50 to 60% loan only....make sure i dun over commit myself;)

phantom_opera
06-04-11, 23:20
The higher the Chinese int rate go, the more Chinese will come to buy property in Singapore ....

devilplate
06-04-11, 23:25
The higher the Chinese int rate go, the more Chinese will come to buy property in Singapore ....

i dun tink its due to int rate as they dun even take loan....hehe

its due to their govt measures:cheers6:

but den if our px spike up by them...MBT may nid to showhand on his measure? i worried not well calibrated....:beats-me-man:

kane
06-04-11, 23:26
CCR, the seller is probably in the same situation as you, if they don't sell high, they can't afford the 40% downpayment for the next place.

devilplate
06-04-11, 23:30
CCR, the seller is probably in the same situation as you, if they don't sell high, they can't afford the 40% downpayment for the next place.

so u mean 40% ltv by itself is inflationary?:hell-hath-no-fury:

kane
06-04-11, 23:37
so u mean 40% ltv by itself is inflationary?:hell-hath-no-fury:

only if the buyers agree to the price, otherwise, it's a matter of bid offer widening.

pmet
06-04-11, 23:57
The higher the Chinese int rate go, the more Chinese will come to buy property in Singapore ....
You're wrong. Chinese are cash rich which means they would like to park their money in the bank if int rises :)

No more investing in over-inflated Asian property markets. Why risk it when you can earn higher int?

IMO, property can only go down from now (everything seems to be against price increase).

rattydrama
07-04-11, 00:12
You're wrong. Chinese are cash rich which means they would like to park their money in the bank if int rises :)

No more investing in over-inflated Asian property markets. Why risk it when you can earn higher int?

IMO, property can only go down from now (everything seems to be against price increase).

I would think that chinese likes to accumulate property its in their blood thats why SG property has been chased by them in the last 3 years. I seldom hear ang mo invest in property.

Most Chinese investor could be waiting at the side for CCR.

Huge population from China, 0.1% population if invest here is enough to bring up our property price or stablished for now.

:2cents:

CCR
07-04-11, 00:37
only if the buyers agree to the price, otherwise, it's a matter of bid offer widening.

So volume will go down, but prices will inch up coz sure got some buyers bite... Sellers no rush to sell now so buyers no choice but to pay higher prices for those with a real need to buy.... So might push up prices

kane
07-04-11, 00:50
that's why real home stay prospective buyers without a home are akin to shorting to a home with a 5% carry cost. if you catch the wave right, you pick top grade durians, if you catch the wave wrongly, the 5% will slowly bleed you.

there's more breathing room to time the market if you have one home base to begin with.

pmet
07-04-11, 03:22
I would think that chinese likes to accumulate property its in their blood thats why SG property has been chased by them in the last 3 years. I seldom hear ang mo invest in property.

Most Chinese investor could be waiting at the side for CCR.

Huge population from China, 0.1% population if invest here is enough to bring up our property price or stablished for now.

:2cents:
Although I know where you're coming from... I'm not comparing between Ang Mo and Chinese when it comes to property ownership or if Chinese likes to buy properties or not. I was just saying that if interest rate increases in China, there will be less Chinese investing in SG properties, or anywhere else. Logically speaking, China is using interest rates to cool down their economy and curb property speculation in their own country by enticing ppl to park money in the bank and that affects properties in SG too because now they will think twice before taking money out of their bank accounts.

ysyap
07-04-11, 06:34
So volume will go down, but prices will inch up coz sure got some buyers bite... Sellers no rush to sell now so buyers no choice but to pay higher prices for those with a real need to buy.... So might push up prices

Agreed. The market with all the measures introduced, are moving into a state where investors without holding power will not enter to play. Those already in market will continue to hold on coz super low interest rate for now. So in the next couple of months, prices might not come down... measures introduced certainly have its effects (more or less) on new players but no effect on those already in.

In short, reports of prices increase coz of the fact that sellers can hold. Reports of less volume coz of the fact that only buyers with holding power enter so less people. :scared-5:

jwong71
07-04-11, 06:53
Agreed. The market with all the measures introduced, are moving into a state where investors without holding power will not enter to play. Those already in market will continue to hold on coz super low interest rate for now. So in the next couple of months, prices might not come down... measures introduced certainly have its effects (more or less) on new players but no effect on those already in.

In short, reports of prices increase coz of the fact that sellers can hold. Reports of less volume coz of the fact that only buyers with holding power enter so less people. :scared-5:

the game is fun when the new players without holding,came in.

without them, where is the instant fun and instant profits.? :D

fclim
07-04-11, 09:10
It's all very sentiment based and in the hands of the developers. When FEO launched Centro at $1,200 psf, everyone say siao. Today, $900 to $1,000 psf considered can buy already. Wait till Capitaland launches its Bishan site at $1,500 psf early next year, then $1,200 psf will seem cheap. That will be the benchmark. Areas at the outskirts of Bishan e.g. Serangoon, Hougang, Upper Thomson etc will also raise their price in tandem.

ysyap
07-04-11, 09:45
It's all very sentiment based and in the hands of the developers. When FEO launched Centro at $1,200 psf, everyone say siao. Today, $900 to $1,000 psf considered can buy already. Wait till Capitaland launches its Bishan site at $1,500 psf early next year, then $1,200 psf will seem cheap. That will be the benchmark. Areas at the outskirts of Bishan e.g. Serangoon, Hougang, Upper Thomson etc will also raise their price in tandem.
let's jog our memories... 3 years back, Kovan Residence launched at $900+ psf, people shake head. Then Yardley in upper serangoon sold at abt $1000 psf at news of NEX mall. Then AMK Centro asking $1200 psf. When NEX mall completed, The Chuan asking $1300psf and Amaranda Gardens calling at $1250 psf. Nin Residence just hit $1300 psf while 8 @ Woodleigh enjoy climb toward $1300 psf at news that Woodleigh MRT opening soon. Next year Bishan site commanding abt $1500 psf. The Bartley site tender seem to suggest launch price at least $1300 psf. This is the new norm and its just gonna climb. Just to tease a bit further... most new developments along upper serangoon calling above $1000 psf, from Space to Wembley to Waterline and 57@ Kovan. Even Minton with no MRT accessibility is pressing in on 900 psf, what Kovan Residence was 3 yrs back. Even Jurong prices are shooting fast and furious. Must move to Woodland already... South down, East down, Centre down, even West also coming down... only North still livable.... Grab it before it goes down also... hahaha :doh:

So those who are still dreaming of falling home prices may just be disappointed. Once prices reach new norm, unless world wide financial crisis, they'll prob hold firm. Furthermore, Chinaman coming to disturb our market, how to see falling price??? Dream on.... :sleep:

McKinnon
07-04-11, 09:50
i dig your pinpoint analysis!

now only those with financial muscle can enter, marginal players are filtered out. naturally, volume will go down.



Agreed. The market with all the measures introduced, are moving into a state where investors without holding power will not enter to play. Those already in market will continue to hold on coz super low interest rate for now. So in the next couple of months, prices might not come down... measures introduced certainly have its effects (more or less) on new players but no effect on those already in.

In short, reports of prices increase coz of the fact that sellers can hold. Reports of less volume coz of the fact that only buyers with holding power enter so less people. :scared-5:

pod
07-04-11, 09:52
FEO already launching D15 condos/apartments at 2000psf :doh:

Market slowly but surely with hit new high soon..

sh
07-04-11, 10:19
i dig your pinpoint analysis!

now only those with financial muscle can enter, marginal players are filtered out. naturally, volume will go down.

There are still a lot of people with no existing loans that can still enter the market at 20% down payment. These are the people with purchasing power....

devilplate
07-04-11, 10:24
There are still a lot of people with no existing loans that can still enter the market at 20% down payment. These are the people with purchasing power....

and i m stunned when a foreign bank offered me equity loan of 70%!!! i tot max 60%??

McKinnon
07-04-11, 10:28
yes, but they can only buy 1 more at 20% down, compared to many more at 20% down previously.



There are still a lot of people with no existing loans that can still enter the market at 20% down payment. These are the people with purchasing power....

fclim
07-04-11, 10:54
There are still a lot of people with no existing loans that can still enter the market at 20% down payment. These are the people with purchasing power....

Yes.. including those enbloc displaced personnel.

Allthepies
07-04-11, 13:08
when the economy is booming and inflation is high, property prices have no room to go down.... so those hoping for prices to go down have to wait a while for either the economy to burst or inflation to come down :2cents:

when economy burst, those waiting at the sidelines may not have the ability to enter as their jobs may burst too... :D

so LPPL....

amk
07-04-11, 13:22
actually for me, the hefty SSD is the one that stops the sentiment, not the LTV. MBT's SSD has outdone HK. (plus the investors here are not that used to the "company share transfer" gimmicks employed in HK to avoid the SSD. )

in this market, there is virtually no desperate sellers. so in my view, px will stay stagnant. every one is doing wait and see now.

but for slightly longer term, I feel those real high 1###psf OCR projects should see some downward pressure. reason is simple. it has jumped too high for the mass market to be affordable. and even at 10% lower than current price, the original owner still makes 40%. bear in mind fr 2006-2009, most mass market pj prices never moved. a lot of them only have an opportunity to sell now. They could practically sell at 10% lower now any time. It's just a matter of when they start to decide (to take less profit)

fclim
07-04-11, 15:25
when the economy is booming and inflation is high, property prices have no room to go down.... so those hoping for prices to go down have to wait a while for either the economy to burst or inflation to come down :2cents:

when economy burst, those waiting at the sidelines may not have the ability to enter as their jobs may burst too... :D

so LPPL....

Not forgetting banks may be risk averse and selective in their lending.

fclim
07-04-11, 15:38
actually for me, the hefty SSD is the one that stops the sentiment, not the LTV. MBT's SSD has outdone HK. (plus the investors here are not that used to the "company share transfer" gimmicks employed in HK to avoid the SSD. )

in this market, there is virtually no desperate sellers. so in my view, px will stay stagnant. every one is doing wait and see now.

but for slightly longer term, I feel those real high 1###psf OCR projects should see some downward pressure. reason is simple. it has jumped too high for the mass market to be affordable. and even at 10% lower than current price, the original owner still makes 40%. bear in mind fr 2006-2009, most mass market pj prices never moved. a lot of them only have an opportunity to sell now. They could practically sell at 10% lower now any time. It's just a matter of when they start to decide (to take less profit)

HDB resale price index in 1Q2007 was 104.9. In 1Q2011, flash estimate is 174.8. It has jumped 66%! So what else can mass market condo do but go up?

ysyap
07-04-11, 15:46
HDB resale price index in 1Q2007 was 104.9. In 1Q2011, flash estimate is 174.8. It has jumped 66%! So what else can mass market condo do but go up?
Sell lower than HDB flats then turn our housing market upside down. HDB become bankrupt and developers become new HDB lor....:D

amk
07-04-11, 16:20
HDB resale price index in 1Q2007 was 104.9. In 1Q2011, flash estimate is 174.8. It has jumped 66%! So what else can mass market condo do but go up?
look at this picture objectively, exactly because of the spectacular jump in HDB resale, mass market prices jumped in 2009/10. As a result MBT started all these measures. Now it's far more difficult for normal HDB upgraders to "upgrade". The px of mass market has peaked. with a 5y MOP, HDB is no longer an attractive investment. HDB resale price will drop. I strongly believe in this.

fclim
07-04-11, 17:05
HDB = Government Bonds. Will go up but must be patient.
Mass Market Condo = Blue Chips. Quite strong, but sometimes may fall.
Luxury Condo = Minibonds. Can go up very high, but can also crash.

DaytonaSS
07-04-11, 17:43
HDB = Government Bonds. Will go up but must be patient.
Mass Market Condo = Blue Chips. Quite strong, but sometimes may fall.
Luxury Condo = Minibonds. Can go up very high, but can also crash.

Mini bond.... I rather call it gold


Singapore luxury home prices rank No.3*globally
by luxuryasiahome April 6, 2011
Singapore’s high-end homes recorded the third largest increase in prices globally, behind Shanghai and Mumbai, according to a new report released today.

Compiled by property consultancy Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank, The Wealth Report 2011 found that Singapore’s luxury home prices rose 18 percent in 2010.

This was on top of a 17 percent increase the previous year, when Singapore recorded the fifth largest increase in high-end home prices globally.

Meanwhile, home prices in Shanghai saw a 21 percent increase in 2010, on top of a 52 percent jump in the preceding year, while Mumbai home prices rose 20 percent in 2010 after increasing 11 percent in 2009.

The top three home price heavyweights — Hong Kong, New York and London — saw smaller price increases in 2010, ranging between 10 and 15 percent.

Source : PropertyGuru – 6 Apr 2011

teddybear
07-04-11, 17:57
Mass market condo = penny stocks instead? Many estates are built by hit-and-run developers or using mass market quality that cannot last? (just like the creation and disappearance of many of these penny stocks?) :p


HDB = Government Bonds. Will go up but must be patient.
Mass Market Condo = Blue Chips. Quite strong, but sometimes may fall.
Luxury Condo = Minibonds. Can go up very high, but can also crash.

DaytonaSS
07-04-11, 18:04
Mass market condo = penny stocks instead? Many estates are built by hit-and-run developers or using mass market quality that cannot last? (just like the creation and disappearance of many of these penny stocks?) :p

Errr cannot say till so ma. It's still condo, catered to different market.

amk
07-04-11, 20:00
Actually I dun know what fclim was talking abt :confused:
Since when a gov bond has huge price swing within 2yr ? It only happens when the gov in question is going to default, like Greek.
And since when minibond can go up very high ? It was documented as fixed income instrument. Even in fair mkt before default it should be Mtm as a cdo , where got value very high ?
Mass mkt blue chip ? :confused: Large mkt cap , investor holding, institutional interest ? It has none.
Sorry what r u trying to say ? :confused:

DaytonaSS
07-04-11, 21:21
Actually I dun know what fclim was talking abt :confused:
Since when a gov bond has huge price swing within 2yr ? It only happens when the gov in question is going to default, like Greek.
And since when minibond can go up very high ? It was documented as fixed income instrument. Even in fair mkt before default it should be Mtm as a cdo , where got value very high ?
Mass mkt blue chip ? :confused: Large mkt cap , investor holding, institutional interest ? It has none.
Sorry what r u trying to say ? :confused:

Think he trying to explain risk return factor.

devilplate
07-04-11, 22:04
in the first plc...ppty is physical asset and bonds, stocks blah blah is equity asset....how to direct relationship????:doh:

novel
08-04-11, 10:12
I feel the pinch coz no money to buy another property coz of 40% LTV... Really want to buy one I really like but stuck with the LTV.. Got enough for 30% only sian.... So it's affecting me.... But dont knowmwhy others got so much money can keep buying and sellers instead of lowering prices, can call higher prices some more....

same here want to buy but have to pay 40% first which i dun feel comfortable...

fclim
08-04-11, 10:41
Actually I dun know what fclim was talking abt :confused:
Since when a gov bond has huge price swing within 2yr ? It only happens when the gov in question is going to default, like Greek.
And since when minibond can go up very high ? It was documented as fixed income instrument. Even in fair mkt before default it should be Mtm as a cdo , where got value very high ?
Mass mkt blue chip ? :confused: Large mkt cap , investor holding, institutional interest ? It has none.
Sorry what r u trying to say ? :confused:

Oh, I was studying the Singapore Residential Price Index from 2007 to 2010. I noticed that during the financial crisis in 2008/2009, HDB prices were the most stable, in fact, it continued to rise. Mass market condo had a small swing downwards, but luxury condos had the greatest swing downwards. Ya, I was trying to compare the risk factors.

amk
08-04-11, 11:15
ok fclim I see ur perspective. may I offer an alternative perspective ? as ppl like to say, "past record is not indicative of future performance".

if u look at ur graph, OCR is like 30% over its last "peak", whereas CCR is 10% below. Since HDB and mass market are for the masses by definition, do the mass have a income increase over 30% over these 2 yrs ?

u may say "that's because OCR/HDB was undervalued last time". for this it's an subjective judgment. I will not attempt to convince any one, but I will just want to offer a comparism for you to think abt. Look at this :

http://www.yohomidtown.com/

this is a new mass market project in HK Yuen Long by a major developer (yuen long is really really far if u not familiar with HK), I can say it's as OCR as keppel's Lakefront. It's also near a MRT station and a mall. Can you guess its price ? Go to this site, the official price before discount is there. It's significantly cheaper than Lakefront. Imagine, HK, a place with no more new public housing for sale, an equivalent mass market project is selling 10% lower than SG ? Since when SG pty price has overtaken HK, a much more speculative market with tons of mainlanders' money ?

That's why for OCR 1###psf projects, I believe there will be a downward pressure. SG mass market simply cannot be at this level.

fclim
08-04-11, 11:41
True, but we can't predict the future, so past data is all that we have. Agree that $1k+ psf for mass market is too high. But, for someone who can afford it and like the project, he/she may still buy because it may be sold to others.

What should be a sustainable psf for mass market now, $850psf?

ysyap
08-04-11, 11:42
Oh, I was studying the Singapore Residential Price Index from 2007 to 2010. I noticed that during the financial crisis in 2008/2009, HDB prices were the most stable, in fact, it continued to rise. Mass market condo had a small swing downwards, but luxury condos had the greatest swing downwards. Ya, I was trying to compare the risk factors.

HDB must keep... cash cow!

Wild Falcon
08-04-11, 12:06
I think u should be more worried with Glyndebourne at $2300psf than mass mkt launches at $1000psf. To make a meagre 20% return over 5 yrs, u need to sell at $2,800psf. Good luck. U should realised by now most analysts have changed their views and now feel the "mass market" might be the most stable and fetches the best yields in the mkt place. I think when Lakefront launches at $1k psf, everyone laugh. Now it's not even a big deal - the chances of Lakefront hitting $1.2k psf is higher than Glyndebourne hitting $2.8psf. And of course lots of resale mass market still at $700psf which fetches good rental yields.


True, but we can't predict the future, so past data is all that we have. Agree that $1k+ psf for mass market is too high. But, for someone who can afford it and like the project, he/she may still buy because it may be sold to others.

What should be a sustainable psf for mass market now, $850psf?

teddybear
08-04-11, 13:28
First, you must know your customers/buyers! The typical buyers of Glyndebourne have/are getting >30%-100% pay rise this year! (Don't forget, Low Thia khiang found that the top civil servants are going to get a pay increase of average 30% this year! With public sector getting average 30%, sure private sector will be much much more than 30% for top earners! Some are getting 300% bonuses vs their salaries). Why they can't afford $2300 psf?

Can you tell us how much pay rise the mass market buyers are getting this year to justify mass market property price increase of almost 100%? :p


I think u should be more worried with Glyndebourne at $2300psf than mass mkt launches at $1000psf. To make a meagre 20% return over 5 yrs, u need to sell at $2,800psf. Good luck. U should realised by now most analysts have changed their views and now feel the "mass market" might be the most stable and fetches the best yields in the mkt place. I think when Lakefront launches at $1k psf, everyone laugh. Now it's not even a big deal - the chances of Lakefront hitting $1.2k psf is higher than Glyndebourne hitting $2.8psf. And of course lots of resale mass market still at $700psf which fetches good rental yields.

teddybear
08-04-11, 13:39
Hei, you still haven't tell them that the median income of HKers are at least 50% more than Singapore! You still haven't tell them that HK has not GST! Their costs of living other than properties lower than Singapore yet earning at least 50% more! :simmering: E.g. Their computers of same brand and model is 33% cheaper than here! :eek:

So shouldn't equivalent mass market properties in HK to be at least 50% more than Singapore? In fact their mass market properties should be at least 150% more than Singapore for following reasons!:

(1) They have no HDB flats, no ECs, no cheaper housing alternatives!
(2) They earn at the median income 50% more than Singapore! Higher income => higher purchasing power for properties!
(3) They have lower costs of livings, so have more spending power on properties!
(4) They have more hilly areas which cannot build properties, so actual land that can build properties are actually much less! Less supply, more demand => higher prices!
(5) Their LUXURY private properties are 4x MORE EXPENSIVE than equivalent in Singapore! So how can their equivalent mass market properties be CHEAPER than Singapore? :doh:



ok fclim I see ur perspective. may I offer an alternative perspective ? as ppl like to say, "past record is not indicative of future performance".

if u look at ur graph, OCR is like 30% over its last "peak", whereas CCR is 10% below. Since HDB and mass market are for the masses by definition, do the mass have a income increase over 30% over these 2 yrs ?

u may say "that's because OCR/HDB was undervalued last time". for this it's an subjective judgment. I will not attempt to convince any one, but I will just want to offer a comparism for you to think abt. Look at this :

http://www.yohomidtown.com/

this is a new mass market project in HK Yuen Long by a major developer (yuen long is really really far if u not familiar with HK), I can say it's as OCR as keppel's Lakefront. It's also near a MRT station and a mall. Can you guess its price ? Go to this site, the official price before discount is there. It's significantly cheaper than Lakefront. Imagine, HK, a place with no more new public housing for sale, an equivalent mass market project is selling 10% lower than SG ? Since when SG pty price has overtaken HK, a much more speculative market with tons of mainlanders' money ?

That's why for OCR 1###psf projects, I believe there will be a downward pressure. SG mass market simply cannot be at this level.

sh
08-04-11, 13:55
Hei, you still haven't tell them that the median income of HKers are at least 50% more than Singapore! You still haven't tell them that HK has not GST! Their costs of living other than properties lower than Singapore yet earning at least 50% more! :simmering: E.g. Their computers of same brand and model is 33% cheaper than here! :eek:

So shouldn't equivalent mass market properties in HK to be at least 50% more than Singapore? In fact their mass market properties should be at least 150% more than Singapore for following reasons!:

(1) They have no HDB flats, no ECs, no cheaper housing alternatives!
(2) They earn at the median income 50% more than Singapore! Higher income => higher purchasing power for properties!
(3) They have lower costs of livings, so have more spending power on properties!
(4) They have more hilly areas which cannot build properties, so actual land that can build properties are actually much less! Less supply, more demand => higher prices!
(5) Their LUXURY private properties are 4x MORE EXPENSIVE than equivalent in Singapore! So how can their equivalent mass market properties be CHEAPER than Singapore? :doh:

That's also why their developers are OBSCENELY rich.:simmering:

ysyap
08-04-11, 14:20
That's also why their developers are OBSCENELY rich.:simmering:

Oh yes that guy came to list his company in singapore to take our $$$...:scared-3:

chiaberry
08-04-11, 14:28
He is also launching property on our own turf to take more $$$ from us.

Laguna
08-04-11, 14:47
For HK property market comparsion, I would like to add :

1. The cost of living in HK is comparable to Sg, exclude property. Income wise, also comparable for the average.
2. HK$ is much weaker than S$, as such, it is better off to have HK$ loan
3. Power of Govt is different, Sg Govt can do wonder in controlling land sale, but in HK, the developers are the ones hoarding the lands. They prefer to sell high and less in term of quantity
4. Much more hot monies to HK
5. If u check the HK history, before the going back to the mainland, there was a lack of confidence, hardly property development, after that, there was financial crisis, SARS etc, as a result, there were no many land sales in the last 20 years. This has resulted limited supply.
6. very very difficult to enbloc old properties

devilplate
08-04-11, 18:15
does many of the mass market condos in HK comes with full condo facilities?

amk
08-04-11, 20:32
This kind of new turnkey projects have. (did u check out the site I posted ? It has not only an outdoor 50m pool, it also has an indoor heated pool).

For older projects, no. Also for many central projects, because of land is so small, the best it can afford is a grand lobby, plus some rooms.

Look the money is yours. I just offer some pointers for you to do some critical thinking. With all the favorable conditions in SG for mass market buyers, and yet u have projects pricing 10% higher than HK where every factor points to higher price. Draw ur own conclusion. Most mass market buyers do not have a few mils to throw around, so the downside risk is not something to be sniffed at.

Btw it's most definitely not true there is a "consensus" among analysts on this market. For example MS says should total underweight SG pty players, whereas JPM thinks should reenter. And CLSA thinks OCR will drop 5% while CCR stays flat. Do ur own homework.

Laguna
08-04-11, 21:51
does many of the mass market condos in HK comes with full condo facilities?

ya, most of them have, see one of the biggest mass project in HK island, Taikoo Shing of 12689 units.
http://www.centadata.com/ptest.aspx?type=3&code=OVDUURFSRJ&info=fp&code2=&page=0

some have very impressive indoor heated pool
club houses for those projects > 1000 units are nicer there

Geylang OKT
09-04-11, 05:29
But we are not agents what..... So seriously does anyone sense market quieten down?

Short and simple answer... YES :D

Geylang OKT
09-04-11, 05:39
It's all very sentiment based and in the hands of the developers. When FEO launched Centro at $1,200 psf, everyone say siao. Today, $900 to $1,000 psf considered can buy already. Wait till Capitaland launches its Bishan site at $1,500 psf early next year, then $1,200 psf will seem cheap. That will be the benchmark. Areas at the outskirts of Bishan e.g. Serangoon, Hougang, Upper Thomson etc will also raise their price in tandem.

Supply and demand... simple economics. For those in the know.... there is a huge oversupply of new condos & pte apts looming ahead in 2012 and 2013. ;)

ysyap
09-04-11, 07:36
Supply and demand... simple economics. For those in the know.... there is a huge oversupply of new condos & pte apts looming ahead in 2012 and 2013. ;)

On the assumption of a falling demand in 2012 and 2013??? With the influx of FT and PRs over the next many years (this won't change), how to have falling demand. So Singaporeans will just humbly stay in new BTO and EC and FT and rich PRs will stay in mass market condo while Chinaman will buy luxurious condos for rental... yup... that's what's gonna happen in our small country!:banghead:

ysyap
09-04-11, 07:39
ya, most of them have, see one of the biggest mass project in HK island, Taikoo Shing of 12689 units.
http://www.centadata.com/ptest.aspx?type=3&code=OVDUURFSRJ&info=fp&code2=&page=0

some have very impressive indoor heated pool
club houses for those projects > 1000 units are nicer there

They have winter so for up to 3 months no pool activities so no choice have to have indoor pool. S'pore no need lah... waste of the space. Developer need to squeeze every available land to sell.... Got plot ratio as well as height limit so must maximize...hahaha. :spliff2:

Geylang OKT
09-04-11, 08:33
On the assumption of a falling demand in 2012 and 2013??? With the influx of FT and PRs over the next many years (this won't change), how to have falling demand. So Singaporeans will just humbly stay in new BTO and EC and FT and rich PRs will stay in mass market condo while Chinaman will buy luxurious condos for rental... yup... that's what's gonna happen in our small country!:banghead:

Double whammy - falling demand & housing oversupply.

You need to note tat the govt is already slowing down on taking in PRs and FTs since 2009 and more so going forward. Rentals depend on these folks, and with more and more condos and pte apts, ECs, BTOs & hdb flats already in the pipeline sooner rather than later.... *ahem* also do you know how many hundreds of mei mei units they are churning out in overtime mode? :D

Spore will face an housing oversupply in a year's time :)

DaytonaSS
09-04-11, 08:55
Double whammy - falling demand & housing oversupply.

You need to note tat the govt is already slowing down on taking in PRs and FTs since 2009 and more so going forward. Rentals depend on these folks, and with more and more condos and pte apts, ECs, BTOs & hdb flats already in the pipeline sooner rather than later.... *ahem* also do you know how many hundreds of mei mei units they are churning out in overtime mode? :D

Spore will face an housing oversupply in a year's time :)

any credible figures or estimate figures to substantiate the demand n supply or based on MBT claims and/or sentiments?

Geylang OKT
09-04-11, 09:13
Amongst other sources and stats which I am far too lazy to reproduce here, have a go at the below too. But unlike him, my take of the oversupply situation will happen sooner rather than later :D


In search of accurate supply data
by Ku Swee Yong 05:55 AM Feb 11, 2011

We need to keep an eye on the potentially strong supply of private homes that will come onstream till 2015. In particular, we need to be wary about the supply this and next year, because the global economic recovery remains elusive.

Based on the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) release on Jan 28 of Q4 2010 data for private residential properties, the estimated number of residential units that will obtain a Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) from 2011 to 2015, as compiled from developers' surveys, are as shown in Table 1.

Now, these TOP numbers are all higher than the average annual increment of around 6,500 private residential units in the 10-year period from 2001 to 2010 (where annual increment is defined as TOP units minus demolitions).

If we do not net-off demolitions, the average new supply was about 8,000 units per year - still less than half of the estimated annual supply for 2013 to 2015.

To be rigorous in our analysis, we need to take into account the potential demolitions so as to arrive at the net new supply numbers. There are apartments from the last en bloc peak which are expected to be demolished this year or next, such as Lucky Tower and Leedon Heights. In addition, there were about 30 en bloc transactions last year.

Taken together, the expected demolitions this and next year should number no more than 1,000 units per year.

This means that net new supply next year and in 2012 could be in the region of 7,500 units per year. So, it would seem that we are safe from an oversupply situation.



Learning from 2010 supply data

The estimated TOP supply last year was 10,744 units in the URA's Q2 2010 report and 10,536 units in Q3 2010. We eventually ended with 10,399 units completed, based on the Q4 2010 report.

The forecasts in Q2 and Q3 2010 were within 3 per cent of each other and of the final tally. This is fine. They were also within our forecast of 10,000 to 11,000 units.

However, the estimated TOP supply for last year was way off before Q2 2010. The four quarters from Q2 2009 to Q1 2010 saw TOP numbers revised upwards sequentially from a low of 5,394 to 10,744. An increase of 100 per cent over a 12-month period. Could construction companies and developers have ramped up the pace of construction that quickly?

The estimated TOP supply last yearwas even further off in 2006 to 2008. At its peak, the highest estimate given was for more than 21,000 units to be completed last year. In hindsight, we see that the reality is half of the peak estimate.



Supply for 2011 and 2012

We had forecast TOPs of 11,000 to 12,000 units of new supply each year, much higher than long term average.

However, looking at the chart "Quarterly Forecast of Residential Supply for 2011" (above), we see that the URA's survey of developers' completion is only starting to increase. The increase from the Q3 2010 forecast to that of Q4 2010 is a significant 25 per cent.

I would expect to see at least one more upward revision in the 2011 forecast. And we have to be well into the year before solid survey data from developers will yield a better estimate.

Similarly, we would be well into 2012 before we are within a few percentage points of the actual 2012 supply.



2013 and beyond

According to URA data, we can expect completions of 17,565 units of residential property in 2013, 21,680 units in 2014 and 22,518 units in 2015. The completion data is skewed heavily towards the last three years of the five-year forecast period.

When we analysed the detailed data and looked into projects on the drawing block, projects that are launched and projects that are under construction, our forecast of the supply numbers is smoother but still skewed towards the later years, as shown in Table 2.

Whichever way the supply numbers turn out, they will be way above the averages recorded in the post-millennium decade. Some 30 to 40 per cent of the residential units that will be completed this year and next year will come from the central region, including Sentosa.

From 2013 to 2015, 90 per cent of the new completions will be in the outskirts of Singapore - Hougang, Sengkang, Pasir Ris and Punggol, for example.

During the same period, we may also expect the completion of close to 40,000 public housing units that were launched last year and this year, particularly in Sengkang, Yishun, Punggol and Woodlands.

There may be strong downward pressure on rentals and prices unless many more expatriates and Permanent Residents land on our shores. This could be possible with strong jobs creation, backed by a steady pace of economic growth over the next five years.

However, if the current economic thinking prevails and we see shorter recession-to-growth cycles, then property peak-to-trough cycles should shrink too. Since the current property up-cycle begun in 2009, might we experience a down-cycle during the strong oversupply period of 2013-2015?



Ku Swee Yong is the founder of real estate agency International Property Advisor (IPA), which provides services to high net worth individuals

devilplate
09-04-11, 09:18
poor okt.....u been saying crash crash since last yr.....tell me more?

Geylang OKT
09-04-11, 09:52
Why would I want a crash when I am holding on to a couple of properties? :D

I am just pointing to a potential oversupply situation in the year ahead. One can't fight or deny facts or reality :hell-hath-no-fury:

Donch be so sensitive lah and donch shoot the messenger :D

Geylang OKT
09-04-11, 10:03
Why would I want a crash when I am holding on to a couple of properties? :D

I am just pointing to a potential oversupply situation in the year ahead. One can't fight or deny facts or reality :hell-hath-no-fury:

Donch be so sensitive lah and donch shoot the messenger :D

Instead... learn to be proactive and mitigate the situation asap. i.e. if for investment, accept that your property(ies) are aging and lease it for a little less. Go for a two years lease instead of just 1 year due to the supply overhang to keep your tenant for just a little while longer... and so on :D

devilplate
09-04-11, 10:26
Why would I want a crash when I am holding on to a couple of properties? :D

I am just pointing to a potential oversupply situation in the year ahead. One can't fight or deny facts or reality :hell-hath-no-fury:

Donch be so sensitive lah and donch shoot the messenger :D

??

during every upturn, buying sentiment good....developers buy more land.....launch more projects......leads to oversupply story.....wats new?

devilplate
09-04-11, 10:28
Instead... learn to be proactive and mitigate the situation asap. i.e. if for investment, accept that your property(ies) are aging and lease it for a little less. Go for a two years lease instead of just 1 year due to the supply overhang to keep your tenant for just a little while longer... and so on :D

2yr lease, tenant aso can break lease after 1 yr based on diplomatic clause.....

Geylang OKT
09-04-11, 10:32
2yr lease, tenant aso can break lease after 1 yr based on diplomatic clause.....

Yes, but he has to provide documentary proof. And it is 1 year + 2 months notice (or 2 months rent in lieu of notice). So not that easy to run hor :D

devilplate
09-04-11, 10:34
Yes, but he has to provide documentary proof. And it is 1 year + 2 months notice (or 2 months rent in lieu of notice). So not that easy to run hor :D

yes....during downturn, vy often expats r being retrenched....mei mei aso nid to cut down by half too

Geylang OKT
09-04-11, 10:38
yes....during downturn, vy often expats r being retrenched....mei mei aso nid to cut down by half too

Ours is a resilient industry. But no need downturn, friendly AV can do wonders too :D

teddybear
09-04-11, 14:29
Is it during late 2006 that a huge over supply was being estimated because of many many enbloc & many GLSs? End up properties up faster non-stop. It is not oversupply but financial crisis that kill the property bull market. I would think the same would happen again. So crisis when? Will be much later than most think since we had just experienced the worst crisis in this century! :beats-me-man:


??

during every upturn, buying sentiment good....developers buy more land.....launch more projects......leads to oversupply story.....wats new?

DC33_2008
09-04-11, 14:40
I have the same thought 15 years ago with an aging and shrinking population, there will be oversupply of housing. Garment's policy of allowing more PRs and FT in the last 5 years has overcome this issue. MM already said that to be competitive, we will need good quality FT. I guess the restriction of immigrants will be lifted after the GE. They have sufficient reasons to increase the no of FT. They are also doing it in schools and universities by offering different kind of scholarships. MND has already commenced studies on the viability of having a 6.5 - 7 million population. It will come.
Why would I want a crash when I am holding on to a couple of properties? :D

I am just pointing to a potential oversupply situation in the year ahead. One can't fight or deny facts or reality :hell-hath-no-fury:

Donch be so sensitive lah and donch shoot the messenger :D

DaytonaSS
09-04-11, 15:14
Why would I want a crash when I am holding on to a couple of properties? :D

I am just pointing to a potential oversupply situation in the year ahead. One can't fight or deny facts or reality :hell-hath-no-fury:

Donch be so sensitive lah and donch shoot the messenger :D
your facts are 1 side. supply without demand is lop sided analysis. here is information on demand for last 5 years. ('000). first row is population,Middle row is citizen, last row is yearly difference. U can draw your own conclusion now based on facts, not lob sided ones.

2006 4,401.4 3,525.9
2007 4,588.6 3,583.1 187.2
2008 4,839.4 3,642.7 250.8
2009 4,987.6 3,733.9 148.2
2010 5,076.7 3,771.7 89.1

fclim
09-04-11, 18:20
I think if economy is still good, oversupply situation will not cause a crash in prices. Because any price correction e.g 10% to 20% will result in people flocking to the showflats and giving blank cheques again. I think anything above 20% drop in prices can consider a crash?

ysyap
10-04-11, 07:53
I think anything above 20% drop in prices can consider a crash?

Not even 1% drop in price yet so still holding firm... how long more? :scared-4: Many say crisis will bring down market but what crisis? Singapore $ now super strong... Japan disaster also had no effect on our property prices. Even the 2008 crisis only lasted about 18 months then Singapore bounced back quickly. Singapore very resilient leh... :D

Actually no need to worry crash... even when Singaporeans no $ to buy, foreigners will enter to help us keep prices up... :doh:

Avatar
10-04-11, 10:46
Not even 1% drop in price yet so still holding firm... how long more? :scared-4: Many say crisis will bring down market but what crisis? Singapore $ now super strong... Japan disaster also had no effect on our property prices. Even the 2008 crisis only lasted about 18 months then Singapore bounced back quickly. Singapore very resilient leh... :D

Actually no need to worry crash... even when Singaporeans no $ to buy, foreigners will enter to help us keep prices up... :doh:

Let me share my side of story. When I bought a unit in early 2009, my friends were laughing at me and said I bought too early and should have waited till end 2009 (think many experts were predicting that the crash will happen end 2009). At that time (early 2009), almost everyone was waiting for the market to crash due to the financial crisis. But I made an offer to a seller just on the basis of what I think should the price at that location (based on gut feeling and on the basis of take it or leave it).

The seller bited the bait, although I was quite reluctant as the everyone seemed to be waiting for the market to crash and I looked like a fool to buy at that time. Then, the price started to skyrocket in the mid 2009. I think there were many people withholding their purchase and waiting for market crash to happen. It never really happen or it was so short as the market recovered real fast in mid 2009. I am still on the learning route in property market and I have learned from this episode that don't follow the herd instinct too much.

Sometimes, you have to consider whether there is penned-up demand in the market where everyone is waiting to enter or the measures implemented actually kill the demand totally! If there is penned-up demand, and if you enter the market, together with the herd, likely is that you may have missed the opportunity.

DaytonaSS
10-04-11, 11:26
Let me share my side of story. When I bought a unit in early 2009, my friends were laughing at me and said I bought too early and should have waited till end 2009 (think many experts were predicting that the crash will happen end 2009). At that time (early 2009), almost everyone was waiting for the market to crash due to the financial crisis. But I made an offer to a seller just on the basis of what I think should the price at that location (based on gut feeling and on the basis of take it or leave it).

The seller bited the bait, although I was quite reluctant as the everyone seemed to be waiting for the market to crash and I looked like a fool to buy at that time. Then, the price started to skyrocket in the mid 2009. I think there were many people withholding their purchase and waiting for market crash to happen. It never really happen or it was so short as the market recovered real fast in mid 2009. I am still on the learning route in property market and I have learned from this episode that don't follow the herd instinct too much.

Sometimes, you have to consider whether there is penned-up demand in the market where everyone is waiting to enter or the measures implemented actually kill the demand totally! If there is penned-up demand, and if you enter the market, together with the herd, likely is that you may have missed the opportunity.

congrats on your wonderful buy!

TKT
10-04-11, 11:58
Seriously, isnt it a bit late to buy anything now?

Prices are at all-time highs, volumes are shrinking, population growth being curtailed (at least for now), etc, etc....

DC33_2008
10-04-11, 12:23
Not really anything but some are still good buy. Just a bit more difficult to find now compared to a year ago.
Seriously, isnt it a bit late to buy anything now?

Prices are at all-time highs, volumes are shrinking, population growth being curtailed (at least for now), etc, etc....

teddybear
10-04-11, 12:32
When there are many people asking same questions as you, may be the night is still young for buying? :D
This is the same as Avatar's story when many people believe it is too early to buy in early 2009 as they believe price is too still too high? :cheers1:


Seriously, isnt it a bit late to buy anything now?

Prices are at all-time highs, volumes are shrinking, population growth being curtailed (at least for now), etc, etc....

3C
10-04-11, 17:18
In actual facts prices went up too steep within a short period and not
really correspond to the real economic growth.

Locals are buying small on cheap interest rate and foreigner
are buying to park their money with uncertainties back home.

It is not really herdinstinct problem but things changes fast and caught
everyone by surprise.
Seriously situation is volatile and will be more so in the coming months
and years. Watch US....

Can afford and buy for own stay should enjoy now. With inflation coming fast & furious how much can developer lower prices..:confused:

kane
10-04-11, 18:59
When there are many people asking same questions as you, may be the night is still young for buying? :D
This is the same as Avatar's story when many people believe it is too early to buy in early 2009 as they believe price is too still too high? :cheers1:

On the one hand, there are many bears which is a healthy sign, on the other hand, you have a very zealous regulator looking to clamp down on any exuberance. Decisions, decisions, decisions...

chiaberry
10-04-11, 20:40
I think there are more risks now to buying property compared to a year ago. And I am not sure this "herd-instinct" to purchase MM units is justified. Where to find so many tenants and where to find so many buyers for future disposal of these units? I am not sure if so-called MM unit means "Mickey Mouse" or "Mass Market". Expats with families would prefer to rent/buy larger units and singles on budget might find it more cost-effective to share a larger unit with a few others.

devilplate
10-04-11, 20:43
I think there are more risks now to buying property compared to a year ago. And I am not sure this "herd-instinct" to purchase MM units is justified. Where to find so many tenants and where to find so many buyers for future disposal of these units? I am not sure if so-called MM unit means "Mickey Mouse" or "Mass Market". Expats with families would prefer to rent/buy larger units and singles on budget might find it more cost-effective to share a larger unit with a few others.
If ltv shrink further, mm even more popular:scared-1:

chiaberry
10-04-11, 20:50
I hope that mm don't become white elephants in the future. Note that the more mm units are produced, the higher the competition will be for tenants and buyers.

If buying for own stay at this point in time and looking at time frame of 10 years or so, should be OK. But if buying mm for investment and to flip in 4 years (under current rules), I'm not so sure it would be a sure bet. Just make sure you got the holding power in case you can't rent it out continuously or sell it. Interest rates might not stay low. The rental market might not be good during certain periods of time. Let's see how small these mm units will be when completed or how easy they are to rent out. That market segment has not been tested. Too bad a lot will TOP to test the market around the same time. :scared-1: Really is going to be a mass market flood of MM.

Lovelle
10-04-11, 20:55
I hope that mm don't become white elephants in the future. Note that the more mm units are produced, the higher the competition will be for tenants and buyers.

If buying for own stay at this point in time and looking at time frame of 10 years or so, should be OK. But if buying mm for investment and to flip in 4 years (under current rules), I'm not so sure it would be a sure bet. Just make sure you got the holding power in case you can't rent it out continuously or sell it. Interest rates might not stay low. The rental market might not be good during certain periods of time. Let's see how small these mm units will be when completed or how easy they are to rent out. That market segment has not been tested. Too bad a lot will TOP to test the market around the same time. :scared-1: Really is going to be a mass market flood of MM.

mm won't overtake bigger units, mm was intro not too long ago compared to nornmal size unit. still mm is a good thing by giving tenants more options...

devilplate
10-04-11, 20:57
Oredi quite a number of mm projects TOPed since 2009

devilplate
10-04-11, 21:00
If u only hf a budget of 500k, u can only buy mm....

Real test will b 2 yrs later.... Hehe

amk
10-04-11, 21:30
I hope that mm don't become white elephants in the future. Note that the more mm units are produced, the higher the competition will be for tenants and buyers.


I'm not worried abt "competition" for tenants/buyers. Totally diff market.
Neither am I worried they will become white elephants. Who cares. You buy with ur eyes open. Gov cannot babysit every investment decision ( even though for resources point of view it's a waste).
MM is a niche market. It has its place no doubt. The question is where.

3C
10-04-11, 21:40
I'm not worried abt "competition" for tenants/buyers. Totally diff market.
Neither am I worried they will become white elephants. Who cares. You buy with ur eyes open. Gov cannot babysit every investment decision ( even though for resources point of view it's a waste).
MM is a niche market. It has its place no doubt. The question is where.

Agreed. It is individual choice and objectives.
Some just buy for weekend stay or retirement nest.
But definitely not for me - can go crazy staying in MM. :D
Rather stay in HDB.

CCR
10-04-11, 22:14
Why would I want a crash when I am holding on to a couple of properties? :D

I am just pointing to a potential oversupply situation in the year ahead. One can't fight or deny facts or reality :hell-hath-no-fury:

Donch be so sensitive lah and donch shoot the messenger :D

So you need to quickly sell all your properties and wait for crash....

ysyap
11-04-11, 06:38
I think there are more risks now to buying property compared to a year ago. And I am not sure this "herd-instinct" to purchase MM units is justified. Where to find so many tenants and where to find so many buyers for future disposal of these units? I am not sure if so-called MM unit means "Mickey Mouse" or "Mass Market". Expats with families would prefer to rent/buy larger units and singles on budget might find it more cost-effective to share a larger unit with a few others.

Agreed that expats would prefer larger units coz companies will pay for them. Always feel that MMs are for rich foreign students or young couples. Certainly not for families with kids. Anyway, risk or no risk depends on purpose of purchase. If for own stay, no risk lah coz prices will surely climb... slow but steady. If for investment, unless have holding power, if not sure risky....

dtrax
11-04-11, 07:04
Agreed that expats would prefer larger units coz companies will pay for them. Always feel that MMs are for rich foreign students or young couples. Certainly not for families with kids. Anyway, risk or no risk depends on purpose of purchase. If for own stay, no risk lah coz prices will surely climb... slow but steady. If for investment, unless have holding power, if not sure risky....

I'm sure anyone who purchase by now would already have substantial holding power which I am talking about investors who most likely already have purchase at least 1 prior to any current purchase and since subsequent properties are at 60% LTV. This is the reason why transaction vol are dropping. Different condo-class different market, so cannot compare apples and oranges. Best not to put all eggs in 1 basket (all into MMs). Regardless the basic property fundamentals still count, i.e good condo facilities, within walking dist to MRT, close to amenities, centrally located and such is definitely a huge draw especially for rental and more so MM units.

JuzMe
11-04-11, 08:11
No point waiting, sell now and take profit. Can't see much more upside versus potential downside.

Laguna
11-04-11, 10:00
I am looking for properties > 30 years old, with good enbloc potential
bit size of <$200m for the land
any suggestion

devilplate
11-04-11, 10:07
I am looking for properties > 30 years old, with good enbloc potential
bit size of <$200m for the land
any suggestion

even u found one enbloc potential project....u aso cant find any seller....got aso will b asking for future enbloc px...hehe

can only spot enbloc potential project during downturn

gn108
11-04-11, 10:09
Above 30 years old very difficult to find...at least with a willing seller.
Better to 'widen' your search to pre-1988 TOP as these are the typical ones with EB potential.
What's the budget? Coz typically these units tend to be bigger units.



I am looking for properties > 30 years old, with good enbloc potential
bit size of <$200m for the land
any suggestion

Laguna
11-04-11, 10:10
even u found one enbloc potential project....u aso cant find any seller....got aso will b asking for future enbloc px...hehe

can only spot enbloc potential project during downturn

yes, ur right
I spotted one, there were only 6 trx in 2010 out of total of >300 units
hardly any seller

ysyap
11-04-11, 10:15
I am looking for properties > 30 years old, with good enbloc potential
bit size of <$200m for the land
any suggestion
Difficult to call for enbloc now... competing with govt who's releasing so many lands and some are really near MRT... difficult to get buyers now... Even Arcadia Condo asking for lease extension and they got 100% of residents to agree on the extension le.. impressive...

Wild Falcon
11-04-11, 10:20
Lease extension not approve anyway. The perils of 99LH - the only hope is to join the enbloc queue and pray.


Difficult to call for enbloc now... competing with govt who's releasing so many lands and some are really near MRT... difficult to get buyers now... Even Arcadia Condo asking for lease extension and they got 100% of residents to agree on the extension le.. impressive...

chiaberry
11-04-11, 10:22
I think owners of older condos with good location/size might think twice abt selling en bloc these days. Unless the price is really really good. They got holding power. Can hang on and in the meantime enjoy their property. Owners of FH units shd not be in rush to sell unless the pty is really old/crumbling. When next upturns come, there is potential to get an even higher price.

devilplate
11-04-11, 10:26
I think owners of older condos with good location/size might think twice abt selling en bloc these days. Unless the price is really really good. They got holding power. Can hang on and in the meantime enjoy their property. Owners of FH units shd not be in rush to sell unless the pty is really old/crumbling. When next upturns come, there is potential to get an even higher price.

depends how old the person is? cash out and enjoy the fruits not a bad idea...life is short anyway....duno wat will happen tmr

proud owner
11-04-11, 10:28
Lease extension not approve anyway. The perils of 99LH - the only hope is to join the enbloc queue and pray.

so whats going to happen ?

if lease top up not approved ..and no developer wants to enbloc it ?

the condo will depreciate from say now of 1000 psf to 0.0 over the next 40 years ?

gn108
11-04-11, 10:29
I agree with you on a personal note.
If you're owner-occupier and the property is not in disrepair, you'll be motivated to hold on.
But then there is the ones who rent out and if the yield is very low (<2%), they maybe more motivated to sell, esp if maintenace fees are increasing.
Whole bunch of factors, but the Occupier-to-Landlord mix is one of them.


I think owners of older condos with good location/size might think twice abt selling en bloc these days. Unless the price is really really good. They got holding power. Can hang on and in the meantime enjoy their property. Owners of FH units shd not be in rush to sell unless the pty is really old/crumbling. When next upturns come, there is potential to get an even higher price.

ysyap
11-04-11, 16:59
so whats going to happen ?

if lease top up not approved ..and no developer wants to enbloc it ?

the condo will depreciate from say now of 1000 psf to 0.0 over the next 40 years ?

It will never drop to $0 psf, not for condos but the same can't be said for landed... At $100 psf, developers will rush in to buy then sell at $1000 psf, earn 900%. Wow!!! Anyway, at the rate Singapore is expanding to accomodate 6.5m population, high chance the condo will kanna relocation to build new infrastructure of new MRT or other stuff. Difficult that for 99 years, that area is untouched unless u stay at the Tanjong Pagar train station :D .

kane
11-04-11, 21:33
i wonder why the lease extension not approved. if developers can take estates and top up the lease, why not this?

sh
11-04-11, 21:40
It will never drop to $0 psf, not for condos but the same can't be said for landed... At $100 psf, developers will rush in to buy then sell at $1000 psf, earn 900%. Wow!!! Anyway, at the rate Singapore is expanding to accomodate 6.5m population, high chance the condo will kanna relocation to build new infrastructure of new MRT or other stuff. Difficult that for 99 years, that area is untouched unless u stay at the Tanjong Pagar train station :D .

If the 99LH has 1 year left.... it will be close to $0. If the 99 run out... it will be 0. Don't kid yourself. :(

If the developer wants to buy it, the development charge will be close to or equal to the price if he buys from open market.

amk
11-04-11, 21:46
It will never drop to $0 psf.

Yes it will. This already happened in UK, where this whole idea of "lease hold" started. Not only the "tenant" was asked to move out (from the property), the property itself became the asset of the landlord, not the "tenant", even though the "tenant" built it.
SG is too young to witness this 1st hand.

Geylang OKT
11-04-11, 21:55
So you need to quickly sell all your properties and wait for crash....

Oversupply is no good for urgent sellers :D

chiaberry
11-04-11, 21:56
That's why it's risky to buy 99 LH property. It ultimately goes back to the Govt. It's a win-win situation for the Govt. They get money at the beginning for the GLS and at the end of the 99 years, the land still belongs to them.

Geylang OKT
11-04-11, 21:59
That's why it's risky to buy 99 LH property. It ultimately goes back to the Govt. It's a win-win situation for the Govt. They get money at the beginning for the GLS and at the end of the 99 years, the land still belongs to them.

Sometimes the land goes back to the private developer. The former Rose Gardens site (now marketed as The Shore Residences) at Amber Road is one example. :D

chiaberry
11-04-11, 22:03
Hmm... I wonder if more developers will do that. Buy FH and resell as 99 LH. FH condo owners shouldn't rush to dispose of their condos. They could become an endangered species in the long term.

devilplate
11-04-11, 22:13
Hmm... I wonder if more developers will do that. Buy FH and resell as 99 LH. FH condo owners shouldn't rush to dispose of their condos. They could become an endangered species in the long term.
But we only live tat lonf

Trust me, when prices getting more out of reach.... One day, govt will start to sell 60 lh:hell-hath-no-fury:

kane
11-04-11, 22:14
Hmm... I wonder if more developers will do that. Buy FH and resell as 99 LH.

i would not even get touch such a property with a 10 ft pole. I would rather buy a LH where the government is the landlord.

Geylang OKT
11-04-11, 22:16
i would not even get touch such a property with a 10 ft pole. I would rather buy a LH where the government is the landlord.


Sometimes the land goes back to the private developer. The former Rose Gardens site (now marketed as The Shore Residences) at Amber Road is one example. :D

Agreed... I also would never touch a 99LH held by a developer with FH title deeds :tongue3: :tongue3: :tongue3:

land118
11-04-11, 22:21
Agreed... I also would never touch a 99LH held by a developer with FH title deeds :tongue3: :tongue3: :tongue3:Is The Shore by FEO is the only one tat is FH title deed but sold as LH? Can't think of another...

kane
11-04-11, 22:22
picture yourself in a lease extension discussion or en bloc sale with a developer as the owner cum landlord... i wonder what is that going to be like??

Geylang OKT
11-04-11, 22:23
picture yourself in a lease extension discussion or en bloc sale with a developer as the owner cum landlord... i wonder what is that going to be like??

Heads I Win, Tails You Lose :D :D :D

kane
11-04-11, 22:27
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose :D :D :D

well, that could be our imagination running wild, but in any case, i'm not inclined to test the validity and limits of my imagination with my hard earned money.

lifeline
11-04-11, 22:41
Is The Shore by FEO is the only one tat is FH title deed but sold as LH? Can't think of another...

Cabana and The Greenwood.
http://hsrproperty.com/2009/12/30/103-year-lease-on-freehold-land-feo/

Spring Grove belongs to US govt apparently.

DaytonaSS
11-04-11, 22:45
But we only live tat lonf

Trust me, when prices getting more out of reach.... One day, govt will start to sell 60 lh:hell-hath-no-fury:

is that what they have in Hong Kong? Maybe we heading in that direction.... But i was thinking will the market be able to accept that?

kane
11-04-11, 23:01
no choice right, just have to accept no?

bargain hunter
12-04-11, 00:28
8 @ Mount Sophia too. FH land is owned by someone else who is not the developer and not government.


Cabana and The Greenwood.
http://hsrproperty.com/2009/12/30/103-year-lease-on-freehold-land-feo/

Spring Grove belongs to US govt apparently.

devilplate
12-04-11, 00:38
peots villas
amaryllis ville
rochelle

land118
12-04-11, 00:55
Wow, didn't realize so many...already...

ysyap
12-04-11, 02:54
Yes it will. This already happened in UK, where this whole idea of "lease hold" started. Not only the "tenant" was asked to move out (from the property), the property itself became the asset of the landlord, not the "tenant", even though the "tenant" built it.
SG is too young to witness this 1st hand.

It will never happen not because it cannot happen but because there are just too many obligations for both the govt and developers to allow it to happen. Singapore is such a small country. What happens in Pulau Ubin will be heard in Jurong within half a day. Too much incentives and benefits for both govt and developers to reap. How to win votes during election if calls for help to govt goes unheard as lease expires? :D

hyenergix
12-04-11, 06:22
You will be surprised. Why are the plots at city center and near MRT mostly 99 LH? This is to allow the government to either take back the plots for redevelopment or re-sale at higher value, or if the government doesn't have any plans then they allow lease top-up.

chiaberry
12-04-11, 06:52
It will never happen not because it cannot happen but because there are just too many obligations for both the govt and developers to allow it to happen. Singapore is such a small country. What happens in Pulau Ubin will be heard in Jurong within half a day. Too much incentives and benefits for both govt and developers to reap. How to win votes during election if calls for help to govt goes unheard as lease expires? :D

hmmm...quite smart of the Arcadia owners to get their story in the papers near to election time. Maybe something can be done for them now that whole of Singapore know about their plight.

hyenergix
12-04-11, 07:27
I doubt the government will reverse its decision. They owners are rich guys (you know who they are from the photo) who just want to try their luck by publicity. If this precedent case is set, the government will have a hard time getting back the 99 LH plots in future.

ysyap
12-04-11, 09:32
I doubt the government will reverse its decision. They owners are rich guys (you know who they are from the photo) who just want to try their luck by publicity. If this precedent case is set, the government will have a hard time getting back the 99 LH plots in future.

Govt can always get back those plots of land by saying they are building some transport system that runs into the property... FH also can take back...

Anyway, govt won't suffer coz if sold to developer for 99LH, developer also need to top up to 99 years before they build the condos. Can just charge the owners directly instead of through the developers. No loss for govt.

proud owner
12-04-11, 09:50
hmmm...quite smart of the Arcadia owners to get their story in the papers near to election time. Maybe something can be done for them now that whole of Singapore know about their plight.


really doubt they will succeed

govt sure have their reason for not approving it ...

and they are not prepared to disclose WHY yet ... in case people speculate on it and push prop up again ??

devilplate
12-04-11, 10:01
tat piece of land is currently underutilised.....so govt dunwan to top up? waste of resource?:beats-me-man:

bargain hunter
12-04-11, 10:14
who owns the land for amaryllis and rochelle? not the developer rite?


peots villas
amaryllis ville
rochelle

devilplate
12-04-11, 10:18
who owns the land for amaryllis and rochelle? not the developer rite?

yes for rochelle(was told during preview launch tat belongs to a clan)....amaryllis i not sure

bargain hunter
12-04-11, 10:27
oh yeah. now i remember. a clan used to sit on the piece of land or maybe the land that is beside it.


yes for rochelle(was told during preview launch tat belongs to a clan)....amaryllis i not sure

fclim
12-04-11, 12:13
Can the owners of Acadia form a private company, enbloc the whole development to themselves cheaply and top up the lease? Is this legal?

ysyap
12-04-11, 12:19
Can the owners of Acadia form a private company, enbloc the whole development to themselves cheaply and top up the lease? Is this legal? Authorities will prob only approve of top up of lease for new projects (not old ones) so no matter they form private company or convince another developer to buy over and pay them subsequently to return the purchase after successful top up, it'll not be approved if no new project is built on that land for top up... Correct me if I'm wrong but I think govt won't be so naive de. :D

devilplate
12-04-11, 12:25
Can the owners of Acadia form a private company, enbloc the whole development to themselves cheaply and top up the lease? Is this legal?

top up only if they gona tear down and redevelop.....goto pay DC charge too on top of lease top up! haha

fclim
12-04-11, 12:31
Sentiments get in the way of logic. Nothing is permanent in Singapore, only change. Should just enbloc and move on. The longer the wait, the lower will be the enbloc offer price.

bargain hunter
12-04-11, 12:33
2nd condition is must have LAND USE INTENSIFICATION (according to the URA). if can meet that condition maybe can.



Can the owners of Acadia form a private company, enbloc the whole development to themselves cheaply and top up the lease? Is this legal?

kane
12-04-11, 16:06
This island needs to hold more people. Maybe if they built a few more blocks in their compound to house more families, the lease top up might be approved.

sh
12-04-11, 20:09
really doubt they will succeed

govt sure have their reason for not approving it ...

and they are not prepared to disclose WHY yet ... in case people speculate on it and push prop up again ??

If gov agree to this, every LH99 property will want a top up too. URA/SLA will be very busy.:)

kane
12-04-11, 21:29
If gov agree to this, every LH99 property will want a top up too. URA/SLA will be very busy.:)

Where is the extra million people going to be housed then?

sh
12-04-11, 21:36
Where is the extra million people going to be housed then?

errr. topping up existing LH land without intensifying use does not add homes....

Sell more land lor....

ysyap
12-04-11, 21:38
Where is the extra million people going to be housed then?

Buy from developers who's selling at record prices lor... or buy from HDB resale market for PRs so Singaporeans can upgrade to condo lor... :spliff:

stalingrad
12-04-11, 21:44
I actually like the idea of allowing top-ups for LH properties not bought up in enbloc sales. doing so allow existing buildings to be used longer and therefore is more environmentally friendly.

besides, why do we always want to allow larger more spacious units to be replaced by MM units as would be the case in enbloc sales?

government that allows top-ups only for enbloc condos will be perceived to be in cahoots with the developers.

ysyap
12-04-11, 21:53
I actually like the idea of allowing top-ups for LH properties not bought up in enbloc sales. doing so allow existing buildings to be used longer and therefore is more environmentally friendly.

besides, why do we always want to allow larger more spacious units to be replaced by MM units as would be the case in enbloc sales?

government that allows top-ups only for enbloc condos will be perceived to be in cahoots with the developers.

As much as I agree and support the idea of lease top up and so preserve existing buildings, it is not so simple as being environmentally friendly coz older buildings need alot more maintenances. Structural stability needed to be assessed more often as well as carrying out of upgrading works like water proofing and re-tiling of floor areas and 40 year old swimming pool. On top of this, lift maintenance must be done too. Alot of other considerations... Otherwise it'll look like a ghost town. :D

sh
12-04-11, 22:32
Where is the extra million people going to be housed then?

build more micro MMs:D

kane
12-04-11, 23:38
For those guys in arcadia, i'm sure they have all the money to do up the entire place.

Maybe they should carve out a plot and built MMs, see if they can get lease top up.

chiaberry
12-04-11, 23:45
For those guys in arcadia, i'm sure they have all the money to do up the entire place.

Maybe they should carve out a plot and built MMs, see if they can get lease top up.

Form their own company, inject funds for redevelopment and lease top up. Would have to comply with land intensification mandate of the govt.

But then perhaps the govt. has some other long-term plan for that area that we do not know.......:beats-me-man:

teddybear
12-04-11, 23:59
Regardless of what, maintaining a building is more environmentally friendly then to tear down a 40 years old building and use fresh new materials to rebuild a new one. Cement and stone building can last several hundred years! (so no reason to tear down even at 99 years old). :cheers1:

The reason not to allow for lease top up is that if Arcadia can do that, all other estates can also do that. End up all estates become too old and keep going, resulting in:
1) Estates all look so old and govt cannot force rejuvenation.
2) Not much demand for the lands govt going to sell anymore since much less people changing house.
3) Got bidding can sell higher price mah, lease top up? Based on whose valuation and how to determine best optimal price? :p


As much as I agree and support the idea of lease top up and so preserve existing buildings, it is not so simple as being environmentally friendly coz older buildings need alot more maintenances. Structural stability needed to be assessed more often as well as carrying out of upgrading works like water proofing and re-tiling of floor areas and 40 year old swimming pool. On top of this, lift maintenance must be done too. Alot of other considerations... Otherwise it'll look like a ghost town. :D

DaytonaSS
13-04-11, 00:24
Back to topic,

Just attended a price negotiation session with my cousin! Confirm its still a seller's market. Seller price is rock hard, refuse to budge! Just saw 2 tanscations done last 2 wks. Not sure abt OCR, but RCR n CCR is creating new highs psf.

hyenergix
13-04-11, 06:17
Regardless of what, maintaining a building is more environmentally friendly then to tear down a 40 years old building and use fresh new materials to rebuild a new one. Cement and stone building can last several hundred years! (so no reason to tear down even at 99 years old). :cheers1:

The reason not to allow for lease top up is that if Arcadia can do that, all other estates can also do that. End up all estates become too old and keep going, resulting in:
1) Estates all look so old and govt cannot force rejuvenation.
2) Not much demand for the lands govt going to sell anymore since much less people changing house.
3) Got bidding can sell higher price mah, lease top up? Based on whose valuation and how to determine best optimal price? :p

Concrete buildings in Singapore cannot last that long. I would give at most 50 years to be in decent condition. Recall that the pre-war shophouses in the city center were decaying badly by 1980s and had to be rebuilt with only the facade left intact. In HDB, the pipes corrode within 10 years and ceiling concrete start to spall within 20 years.

chiaberry
13-04-11, 07:45
Where is the extra million people going to be housed then?

Simpang New Town (east of Yishun), the western side of Punggol and Sengkang will be expanded. I believe more land will also be released in the Lentor area. The North-South expressway and new MRT lines will help to ease congestion from these areas or else the CTE going into CBD will be super jammed by the time these projects are completed. That is why the urgency to get the Northern part of the transport system in place by the end of this decade.

ysyap
13-04-11, 07:53
Simpang New Town (east of Yishun), the western side of Punggol and Sengkang will be expanded. I believe more land will also be released in the Lentor area. The North-South expressway and new MRT lines will help to ease congestion from these areas or else the CTE going into CBD will be super jammed by the time these projects are completed. That is why the urgency to get the Northern part of the transport system in place by the end of this decade. CTE's infamous jam started way back. How come it took so long before work is started for road widening (think only in 2009) and the new NS highway not even started. For the last 20 years of CTE jam, drivers saw COE reached a record 100+k and have been paying ERP like drinking water and still get stuck in traffic jams. Isn't ERP for regulating traffic? Pay and still wait in jam... :doh:

Anyway, very little land left in Singapore to do up for residential stay... maybe only going up further north and north east. Or take Pulau Ubin and convert to residential area like Sentosa Cove?

kane
13-04-11, 08:12
Pulau ubin does boast waterfront living without that many big tankers parked offshore.

proud owner
13-04-11, 08:24
Regardless of what, maintaining a building is more environmentally friendly then to tear down a 40 years old building and use fresh new materials to rebuild a new one. Cement and stone building can last several hundred years! (so no reason to tear down even at 99 years old). :cheers1:

The reason not to allow for lease top up is that if Arcadia can do that, all other estates can also do that. End up all estates become too old and keep going, resulting in:
1) Estates all look so old and govt cannot force rejuvenation.
2) Not much demand for the lands govt going to sell anymore since much less people changing house.
3) Got bidding can sell higher price mah, lease top up? Based on whose valuation and how to determine best optimal price? :p


also developers will have no more business

chiaberry
13-04-11, 08:32
CTE's infamous jam started way back. How come it took so long before work is started for road widening (think only in 2009) and the new NS highway not even started. For the last 20 years of CTE jam, drivers saw COE reached a record 100+k and have been paying ERP like drinking water and still get stuck in traffic jams. Isn't ERP for regulating traffic? Pay and still wait in jam... :doh:


You don't know arh? PAP = Pay And Pay.

Yes I agree that the NS Expressway is long overdue. Now that they are releasing more and more land in the N/NE, it is about time they hurry up and get going with this project. Same goes for the Thomson line. HURRY up and finalise the details and get going. Since we have to Pay And Pay, give us more value for our $$$

teddybear
13-04-11, 08:37
If you reasoning is correct, we should tear down & rebuild Chijmes, Tanjong Pagar Railway Station, the Parliament House, etc as these buildings are all >50 years old, some even >70 years old! :eek:
Why are buildings of 500 years old still standing overseas? Some say Singapore hot and humid. But these oversea countries got 4 seasons, temperature goes from -30 to 25 degree celsius and humidity also fluctuates great (vs Singapore only 6 degree celsius temperature change), these type of extreme temperature change won't change more damage to structure mah? Still can last 500 years or more and habitable? The people there are not human or Singaporeans only want new buildings? (100 years old stone wall vs 0 years old stone wall got much difference mah?) :beats-me-man:


Concrete buildings in Singapore cannot last that long. I would give at most 50 years to be in decent condition. Recall that the pre-war shophouses in the city center were decaying badly by 1980s and had to be rebuilt with only the facade left intact. In HDB, the pipes corrode within 10 years and ceiling concrete start to spall within 20 years.

silver023
13-04-11, 08:39
Back to topic,

Just attended a price negotiation session with my cousin! Confirm its still a seller's market. Seller price is rock hard, refuse to budge! Just saw 2 tanscations done last 2 wks. Not sure abt OCR, but RCR n CCR is creating new highs psf.

Yup, sellers are still raising their asking prices despite all the newspaper reports that prices have stabalized.

Units at Amber Rd / Meyer Road asking more than 2k psf :scared-4:

DC33_2008
13-04-11, 09:11
We have the URA: Urban Renewal Authority. Of course it has to be renewed and continue to have income from DC, etc.
If you reasoning is correct, we should tear down & rebuild Chijmes, Tanjong Pagar Railway Station, the Parliament House, etc as these buildings are all >50 years old, some even >70 years old! :eek:
Why are buildings of 500 years old still standing overseas? Some say Singapore hot and humid. But these oversea countries got 4 seasons, temperature goes from -30 to 25 degree celsius and humidity also fluctuates great (vs Singapore only 6 degree celsius temperature change), these type of extreme temperature change won't change more damage to structure mah? Still can last 500 years or more and habitable? The people there are not human or Singaporeans only want new buildings? (100 years old stone wall vs 0 years old stone wall got much difference mah?) :beats-me-man:

fclim
13-04-11, 09:26
If you reasoning is correct, we should tear down & rebuild Chijmes, Tanjong Pagar Railway Station, the Parliament House, etc as these buildings are all >50 years old, some even >70 years old! :eek:
Why are buildings of 500 years old still standing overseas? Some say Singapore hot and humid. But these oversea countries got 4 seasons, temperature goes from -30 to 25 degree celsius and humidity also fluctuates great (vs Singapore only 6 degree celsius temperature change), these type of extreme temperature change won't change more damage to structure mah? Still can last 500 years or more and habitable? The people there are not human or Singaporeans only want new buildings? (100 years old stone wall vs 0 years old stone wall got much difference mah?) :beats-me-man:

Wrong comparison. We are talking about residential homes, not national monuments that have to be conserved for their architectural and cultural values. Conservation comes at a very high cost which includes complete interior refurbishment and constant structural integrity checks. The structures may last many years, but not the M&E systems such as pipings, electrical wiring, lifts, airconditioning etc.

hyenergix
13-04-11, 09:40
If you reasoning is correct, we should tear down & rebuild Chijmes, Tanjong Pagar Railway Station, the Parliament House, etc as these buildings are all >50 years old, some even >70 years old! :eek:
Why are buildings of 500 years old still standing overseas? Some say Singapore hot and humid. But these oversea countries got 4 seasons, temperature goes from -30 to 25 degree celsius and humidity also fluctuates great (vs Singapore only 6 degree celsius temperature change), these type of extreme temperature change won't change more damage to structure mah? Still can last 500 years or more and habitable? The people there are not human or Singaporeans only want new buildings? (100 years old stone wall vs 0 years old stone wall got much difference mah?) :beats-me-man:

Those buildings u mentioned had undergone or need to undergo extensive preservation.

stalingrad
13-04-11, 10:04
Regardless of what, maintaining a building is more environmentally friendly then to tear down a 40 years old building and use fresh new materials to rebuild a new one. Cement and stone building can last several hundred years! (so no reason to tear down even at 99 years old). :cheers1:

The reason not to allow for lease top up is that if Arcadia can do that, all other estates can also do that. End up all estates become too old and keep going, resulting in:
1) Estates all look so old and govt cannot force rejuvenation.
2) Not much demand for the lands govt going to sell anymore since much less people changing house.
3) Got bidding can sell higher price mah, lease top up? Based on whose valuation and how to determine best optimal price? :p

teddy, I totally agree with you, this urban rejuvenation thing is just a disguised attempt by the government to raise taxes.

A lot of buildings in Taipei, for example, look old and run down, but the city has character, unlike Singapore, which is just a glass and steel jungle, totally taste and flavorless.

Laguna
13-04-11, 10:15
[quote=stalingrad]teddy, I totally agree with you, this urban rejuvenation thing is just a disguised attempt by the government to raise taxes. /quote]

agreed
these include
1. stamp duty by the developer to buy the land
2. stamp duty by the buyers
3. GST for the construction cost
4. top up lease fee
5. development charge

ysyap
13-04-11, 10:33
If you reasoning is correct, we should tear down & rebuild Chijmes, Tanjong Pagar Railway Station, the Parliament House, etc as these buildings are all >50 years old, some even >70 years old! :eek:
Why are buildings of 500 years old still standing overseas? Some say Singapore hot and humid. But these oversea countries got 4 seasons, temperature goes from -30 to 25 degree celsius and humidity also fluctuates great (vs Singapore only 6 degree celsius temperature change), these type of extreme temperature change won't change more damage to structure mah? Still can last 500 years or more and habitable? The people there are not human or Singaporeans only want new buildings? (100 years old stone wall vs 0 years old stone wall got much difference mah?) :beats-me-man:
3 points to consider (no right or wrong):

1. Those buildings you've mentioned are essentially low rise buildings that are not subjected to huge vertical loadings. Consider the amount of loads sustained by a 25 storey point block. Different comparisons! We are probably looking more at old tall buildings like the Empire State building if we're to make logical comparisons.

2. Again those places you've mentioned are more commercialized than residential therefore there is a constant pumping of $$ to continually conduct structural stability checks as well as refurbishing required to allow sustained usage. For residential areas, who'll continually conduct these checks and who wants to pay? Maybe only the rich who can afford it but certainly not HDB dwellers who are largely not so well off. Setting the precedence in condo would inevitably raise concerns from the heartlanders in time to come so govt very careful lor...:tsk-tsk:

3. Just to push a little further, buildings standing for 500 years or even the Egyptian pyramids do not use concrete like modern technology. It uses expertly cut huge stone blocks, and stacked one on top of another. Different construction methods altogether.

DaytonaSS
13-04-11, 10:44
Yup, sellers are still raising their asking prices despite all the newspaper reports that prices have stabalized.

Units at Amber Rd / Meyer Road asking more than 2k psf :scared-4:

Stablise mean price increase slow vs increase rapidly.

thomastansb
13-04-11, 10:45
Anyway, property is a no brainer.

If those first buyers of Icon didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Pasir Ris now (750 psf)

If those first buyers of Sail didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Tampines now (900 psf)

If those first buyers of MBR didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Balestier now (1450 psf)

ysyap
13-04-11, 10:50
If those first buyers of MBR didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Balestier now (1450 psf) but still don't buy, can only buy Tampines later.

If those first buyers of Sail didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Tampines now (900 psf) and still don't buy, can only buy Pasir Ris later.

If those first buyers of Icon didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Pasir Ris now (750 psf) and still don't buy can only buy HDB later.

stalingrad
13-04-11, 10:56
Anyway, property is a no brainer.

If those first buyers of Icon didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Pasir Ris now (750 psf)

If those first buyers of Sail didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Tampines now (900 psf)

If those first buyers of MBR didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Balestier now (1450 psf)
property is a bubble waiting to burst.

If people buy Icon today, they would not be able to buy Icon two years from now at Pasir Ris prices (750 psf)

If people buy Sail today, they would not be able to buy Sail two years from now at Tampines prices (900 psf)

If people buy MBR now, they would not be able to buy MBR two years from now at Balestier prices (1450 psf)

thomastansb
13-04-11, 11:05
In 2009, you also say property prices will go down :doh::doh::doh:

Anyway, property moves up and down but up most of the time. That is what I am trying to say.




property is a bubble waiting to burst.

If people buy Icon today, they would not be able to buy Icon two years from now at Pasir Ris prices (750 psf)

If people buy Sail today, they would not be able to buy Sail two years from now at Tampines prices (900 psf)

If people buy MBR now, they would not be able to buy MBR two years from now at Balestier prices (1450 psf)

thomastansb
13-04-11, 11:07
Haha. I like your continuation.




If those first buyers of MBR didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Balestier now (1450 psf) but still don't buy, can only buy Tampines later.

If those first buyers of Sail didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Tampines now (900 psf) and still don't buy, can only buy Pasir Ris later.

If those first buyers of Icon didn't buy, they can only afford to buy Pasir Ris now (750 psf) and still don't buy can only buy HDB later.

DaytonaSS
13-04-11, 14:14
Stanlingrad..... Get on the next boat quickly and make sure you stick to CCR....


http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...34403,00.html?

Published April 12, 2011

Staying in the moment with his landbank

By KALPANA RASHIWALA


(SINGAPORE) SC Global has a considerable inventory of about one million square feet gross of saleable floor area in various luxury residential projects in Singapore, but chairman and CEO Simon Cheong is in no hurry to sell it off, mindful of the difficulty of finding replacement landbank in Singapore's top-end segment, which is his company's niche.

In fact, replenishing the landbank will be the biggest challenge facing Singapore's luxury residential market this year, he argues.

The one million sq ft gross floor area of space available for sale comprises units which have yet to be sold in existing projects such as The Marq on Paterson Hill, Hilltops, Martin No 38 and Seven Palms, Sentosa Cove, as well as a project that the group has yet to develop on the site of The Ardmore.

'For SC Global, we decided that we shouldn't sell ourselves short by selling out too early, prematurely, when to replace our kind of high-end landbank literally a few minutes away from the Orchard Road area is going to be tough.

'So normally we don't price our projects to sell ourselves short. The way we price is (based on) my replacement cost. I have to make a qualification because I have to be very careful here not to go into other people's turf because we're just high-end players. We play in the 9, 10 and 11 districts.'

The situation is unlike the case for the mass-market where government is always there to supply land, he adds.

Mr Cheong suggests that in five to 10 years' time, finding land in Singapore's choicest districts near Orchard Road could become as difficult as finding development land today in New York's Central Park and London's Hyde Park locations.

He also stresses that SC Global's concept of launching a project is not of the run-of-the-mill variety. 'We do put limited units for sale but we don't have launches with big fanfare, balloons outside, like a carnival. It is very different, because this is high end. And the ticket item we are talking about is huge. So we have to adapt the whole marketing.

SC Global's gearing (net debt to equity) - stripping out AVJennings' borrowings and cash - has fallen from 2.7 times at end-2009 to 2.2 times at end-2010, according to Nomura Singapore's calculation.

At end-2010, the group had $831.8 million of current financial liabilities, mostly land loans tied to its development projects The Marq, Hilltops and Martin No 38. The Marq received Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) in January this year and Hilltops is expected to be completed soon. Martin No 38's residential component will also receive TOP later this year.

Nomura analyst Sai Min Chow expects the company to roll over the debt, securing it against unsold completed units in the development.

'Because the banks typically give a higher loan-to-value for completed units and for SC Global the value is typically quite high, I don't think they will have an issue getting the debt rolled over. Moreover, it is clear the banks have been very supportive of the company so far,' says Mr Sai.

Mr Cheong says that Singapore has all the elements that will make for a 'very positive outlook for the luxury market this year'. He readily gives credit to the government for reinventing Singapore over the past five years by paving the way for the two integrated resorts, upgrading Changi Airport and positioning Singapore as a wealth management hub.

'Singapore is already beginning to be an oasis for well-heeled individuals who want to put their funds (here) or diversify their funds to other countries, and Asia is a growth area. The removal of the estate duty completely removes any doubt for family trusts that want to put money in Singapore. I think our fund management and private banking structure also speaks volumes for us and for rich individuals who want to diversify their funds to a safe-haven city, Singapore is well positioned.'

Mr Cheong also argues that Singapore's luxury residential prices are still reasonable compared with other markets such as New York, London, Paris, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

'No property play in any country will succeed without the right infrastructure, environment and transparency that we have.'

The 54-year-old, formerly a real estate banker before venturing into property investment and development, is married with two daughters aged 22 and 21 and a nine-year-old son.

The experience of building up SC Global into a formidable brandname in Singapore's high-end sector over the past 10 years has left him more convinced that 'if we work hard and stay true to our passion, values and vision, in the long run we can achieve something truly unique and special'.

'The value of having good relationships and friends is so very important in every way imaginable in life.'

Mr Cheong developed an appreciation for Chinese tea about 10 years ago. 'Sometimes I brew tea in the office while waiting to solve the next problem. It can be rather therapeutic. Of course, tea has many health benefits too. Some people really drink tea, they gulp it like beer; but tea has to be sipped to be enjoyed.'

His favourites include Pu Er, Da Hong Pau and Long Jing - 'depending on the time and mood of the day'. He visits tea houses in Chinatown during weekends, appreciating his passion anonymously with fellow tea connoisseurs, as he goes unrecognised clad casually in jeans.

Mr Cheong gives some tips on tea brewing: 'Always 'rinse' tea leaves, so the first two servings should be discarded. Good tea should not be 'cooked'; there's a difference between brewing and cooking. Selecting the right tea pot is also important; it's similar to using the right wine glasses for different wines.

There's nothing quite like sipping Chinese tea to the strains of the Chinese erhu or guzheng and watching the smoke dance from sandalwood incense - to stay in the moment.

kane
13-04-11, 23:07
i'm surprised simon is taking a back seat after a fast and furious 2005-2007 for him.

CCR
14-04-11, 00:09
If all the previous en bloc land is sold as new development then where can we find more land in 9 1011?I think Simon is right..... The gap is really too small between CCR and OCR... Look at this comparison.... Orchard residences 3500 psf.... Dleedon is 1750 psf on average, that is half price different for a 5 mins drive... But go all the way to sengkang and it's 1000 psf? When it's 30 mins drive... So don't younthink OCR is over priced?

devilplate
14-04-11, 00:18
If all the previous en bloc land is sold as new development then where can we find more land in 9 1011?I think Simon is right..... The gap is really too small between CCR and OCR... Look at this comparison.... Orchard residences 3500 psf.... Dleedon is 1750 psf on average, that is half price different for a 5 mins drive... But go all the way to sengkang and it's 1000 psf? When it's 30 mins drive... So don't younthink OCR is over priced?

just hoot ur dleedon la....

kane
14-04-11, 00:51
You should thank those who create the overpriced situations, they create for you the underpriced opportunities.

CCR
14-04-11, 00:51
So really good investment for dleedon? I bought a three bedroom unit there Liao.... I really think it's under priced.... Bendeemeer also can bid 700+ psf land cost... Sure launch above 1400 psf... So dleedon cheap lolx.... Hope I am right

kane
14-04-11, 00:55
They'll be there to take the first hit if things go pear shaped.

teddybear
14-04-11, 06:49
I think you are right. Want to short OCR property but doesn't seem to have any instrument to do so?


If all the previous en bloc land is sold as new development then where can we find more land in 9 1011?I think Simon is right..... The gap is really too small between CCR and OCR... Look at this comparison.... Orchard residences 3500 psf.... Dleedon is 1750 psf on average, that is half price different for a 5 mins drive... But go all the way to sengkang and it's 1000 psf? When it's 30 mins drive... So don't younthink OCR is over priced?

wind30
14-04-11, 09:38
If all the previous en bloc land is sold as new development then where can we find more land in 9 1011?I think Simon is right..... The gap is really too small between CCR and OCR... Look at this comparison.... Orchard residences 3500 psf.... Dleedon is 1750 psf on average, that is half price different for a 5 mins drive... But go all the way to sengkang and it's 1000 psf? When it's 30 mins drive... So don't younthink OCR is over priced?

got 30mins meh? If got jam then maybe. but in that case Farrer road jams pretty badly in the morning. your 5 min is assuming smooth traffic right?

IF smooth traffic, I can get to the city in 15 mins from places like AMK.

I don't know where orchard residence is but is it within walking distance to Orchard? I think got big difference between drive and walking.

Once you need to drive, 5min vs 15mins what is the difference? you probably spend more time looking for parking, walking out, etc.

chiaberry
14-04-11, 09:47
Farrer road jams are much better since they realigned the road after completing the MRT station (I travel that way every morning). I think the traffic from Upper Thomson area to town is smoother than trying to get in from Sixth Avenue side in fact (that is reported to be a nightmare during peak hours).

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:00
So really good investment for dleedon? I bought a three bedroom unit there Liao.... I really think it's under priced.... Bendeemeer also can bid 700+ psf land cost... Sure launch above 1400 psf... So dleedon cheap lolx.... Hope I am right
haha, good luck. I will ask god to look after you. The economist magazine just reported that Singapore properties are 20% overvalued.

The news about d'leedon has been grim recently. the developer couldn't find buyers in Sin and had to try to sell to Chinese and Indians. tulip garden couldn't find a buyer for a en bloc sale.

and you bought d'eedon. you are the king!!!!

devilplate
14-04-11, 10:06
i remember CCR said b4 he cant afford a 2bedder in Dleedon...:beats-me-man:

fclim
14-04-11, 10:07
If all the previous en bloc land is sold as new development then where can we find more land in 9 1011?I think Simon is right..... The gap is really too small between CCR and OCR... Look at this comparison.... Orchard residences 3500 psf.... Dleedon is 1750 psf on average, that is half price different for a 5 mins drive... But go all the way to sengkang and it's 1000 psf? When it's 30 mins drive... So don't younthink OCR is over priced?

Distance/location is not the only criteria nowadays. There are other considerations like views, size of the units etc. OCR has many projects with waterfront and reservoir views that make them attractive and in demand. With new quality malls, business parks and improved transport networks in the OCR, the gap will actually narrow, not widen. For a foreigner used to 2 hour drives to the city in his country, 30 mins is nothing. Only Singaporeans feel that it is too far..

chiaberry
14-04-11, 10:07
ahem...off topic...should we be shorting Capitaland shares? They are heavily vested.

devilplate
14-04-11, 10:08
the whole Sg is a City

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:10
ahem...off topic...should we be shorting Capitaland shares? They are heavily vested.


I definitely will short capitaland. I think the fair value is less than $3 a share. In three years, it will be down to $2.

blackpepperj
14-04-11, 10:14
I definitely will short capitaland. I think the fair value is less than $3 a share. In three years, it will be down to $2.

Oh ya, your short position is 3 years? :doh:

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:14
Distance/location is not the only criteria nowadays. There are other considerations like views, size of the units etc. OCR has many projects with waterfront and reservoir views that make them attractive and in demand. With new quality malls, business parks and improved transport networks in the OCR, the gap will actually narrow, not widen. For a foreigner used to 2 hour drives to the city in his country, 30 mins is nothing. Only Singaporeans feel that it is too far..

yes, hedges park in D17 at less than $800 psf on my radar now. that area may be undervalued. Given the business activity there now and in the future, there would be strong rental demand.

d'leedon is for old timers whose idea of singapore is the out of date.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:15
Oh ya, your short position is 3 years? :doh:
I don't think I can be short a stock that long in singapore.

chiaberry
14-04-11, 10:15
I definitely will short capitaland. I think the fair value is less than $3 a share. In three years, it will be down to $2.

The value of the land/property portfolio is inflated by their recent "expensive" purchases and really one needs to take a good hard look at what they have in their books and see if the valuations are justified. Hmmm...wondering if Mr. Liew might be retiring some time soon (on his laurels) and jack up the price so that he can go off with fanfare. Or maybe he get extra bonus based on excellent performance on paper so far. Thereafter price drop.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:17
The value of the land/property portfolio is inflated by their recent "expensive" purchases and really one needs to take a good hard look at what they have in their books and see if the valuations are justified. Hmmm...wondering if Mr. Liew might be retiring some time soon (on his laurels) and jack up the price so that he can go off with fanfare. Or maybe he get extra bonus based on excellent performance on paper so far. Thereafter price drop.
precisely. I have zero respect for this chap:

CapitaLand bonus: a question on revaluation http://www.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gif By UMA SHANKARI
CAPITALAND revealed last week that it had awarded chief executive Liew Mun Leong a bonus of $20.52 million for 2007 and a comparatively more modest bonus of $2.98 million for 2008.
Mr Liew's award for 2007 was a reward for the group's record profit of $2.76 billion that year. Profits more than doubled from 2006's $1.01 billion, for which Mr Liew was paid $6.36 million.

CapitaLand also said the bonus accrued to Mr Liew in 2007 was due primarily to an economic value added (EVA) bonus payment. Essentially, EVA measures the net operating profit after tax of the group minus the cost of all capital employed. In 2007, CapitaLand's EVA was $2.3 billion. The amount fell to a smaller $660 million in 2008, leading to a significantly smaller bonus for Mr Liew. Predictably, the figure of $20.52 million has come under fire. The amount is unprecedented here, even among the three listed local banks, whose management typically draw high bonuses. CapitaLand's disclosure led at least one commentator to draw a parallel to the public anger in the United States and some parts of Europe over excessive CEO compensation.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:19
capitaland is up to its eyebrows in chinese properties. It that market crashes, watch out.

chiaberry
14-04-11, 10:22
precisely. I have zero respect for this chap:



But you have to admit he is doing pretty well for himself (and the company). I was walking in Bishan J8 and realised the high bid for the land there will benefit J8 greatly (with the increased patronage right AT THE DOORSTEP). Can jack up rents there like there's no tomorrow. Thus the great rush to launch. They have vested interest in that area for sure. :scared-5: :D

chiaberry
14-04-11, 10:23
capitaland is up to its eyebrows in chinese properties. It that market crashes, watch out.

Woah. Sitting on two big bubbles. David Copperfield hats off to them.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:25
I don't think Lew deserves the bonus in 2007. EVA is a concept that doesn't work for developers.

ysyap
14-04-11, 10:28
I don't think Lew deserves the bonus in 2007. EVA is a concept that doesn't work for developers.Often people don't care if concept work or not. So long as it makes $$$, he'll be recognized. Also how do u gauge if concept work or don't work?

chiaberry
14-04-11, 10:30
i remember CCR said b4 he cant afford a 2bedder in Dleedon...:beats-me-man:

Maybe he is the one who bought at that very "special" price listed in URA website???

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:32
Often people don't care if concept work or not. So long as it makes $$$, he'll be recognized. Also how do u gauge if concept work or don't work?
EVA means economics value added. this measures profit net of capital charge. this measure is best suited for firms that creates value every year individually.

developers are different. their profit is spread over the periods over which construction takes place. So as long as you sell a lot of condos in one year, you guarantee yourself 4 to five years of high profit in the future regardless of market conditions.

Thus, EVA doesn't apply to developers like capitaland.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 10:39
Maybe he is the one who bought at that very "special" price listed in URA website???

either that or he has too much money in his pocket burning a hole.

DaytonaSS
14-04-11, 10:57
I definitely will short capitaland. I think the fair value is less than $3 a share. In three years, it will be down to $2.

Your knowledge or property market is as good as your knowledge on stocks. My assumption u r here to fish for information while make world class statements. NAV is 336 cents. U know what that means? U can goggle it n read then come here n share y it's $2.

If u do have a direct line to god, u should seek assistance immediately.

Grimloq
14-04-11, 11:03
Your knowledge or property market is as good as your knowledge on stocks. My assumption u r here to fish for information while make world class statements. NAV is 336 cents. U know what that means? U can goggle it n read then come here n share y it's $2.

If u do have a direct line to god, u should seek assistance immediately.


Haven't you realized by now that Stalingrad is full of shit?

DaytonaSS
14-04-11, 11:08
Haven't you realized by now that Stalingrad is full of shit?

Sometimes I wonder what foreign talent PAP talk abt.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 11:15
Your knowledge or property market is as good as your knowledge on stocks. My assumption u r here to fish for information while make world class statements. NAV is 336 cents. U know what that means? U can goggle it n read then come here n share y it's $2.

If u do have a direct line to god, u should seek assistance immediately.
of course, I know what NAV is. that is just what the developer thinks the value of thie net assets is. the key word is "thinks."

I guess talking to you local morons is a waste of my time.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 11:17
Sometimes I wonder what foreign talent PAP talk abt.

you are a typical example of what local talent is like.

DaytonaSS
14-04-11, 11:36
you are a typical example of what local talent is like.

Yup, locals usually are non shitty, n the back up their statement with FACTS. Local teachers usually teach students not to bullshit.

Serious ah, now u r accountant? NAV is what they think their value? So now u accuse the accounting world of disillutional.

But then again stock is a zero sum game, don't have smart Alec how to make $$$$. Good luck with your shorts. Since your last short on US market till now u should be sitting on fat fat loses right. Wonder how long your shorts are? 3 years????? Hahaha

devilplate
14-04-11, 11:39
tok cork sing song....say short capland...mabe secretly buying instead....who knows

DaytonaSS
14-04-11, 11:40
of course, I know what NAV is. that is just what the developer thinks the value of thie net assets is. the key word is "thinks."

I guess talking to you local morons is a waste of my time.

Like I say u not NOT proven y u THINK it's worth $2. come substaintiate your statement! did u imagine it to be $2?

stalingrad
14-04-11, 11:40
Yup, locals usually are non shitty, n the back up their statement with FACTS. Local teachers usually teach students not to bullshit.

Serious ah, now u r accountant? NAV is what they think their value? So now u accuse the accounting world of disillutional.

But then again stock is a zero sum game, don't have smart Alec how to make $$$$. Good luck with your shorts. Since your last short on US market till now u should be sitting on fat fat loses right. Wonder how long your shorts are? 3 years????? Hahaha

haha, you are wrong. I closed my short before the market started going up again. I made more money in one week than you can make in your lifetime. haha.

devilplate
14-04-11, 11:45
haha, you are wrong. I closed my short before the market started going up again. I made more money in one week than you can make in your lifetime. haha.

ya rite.....

DaytonaSS
14-04-11, 11:49
haha, you are wrong. I closed my short before the market started going up again. I made more money in one week than you can make in your lifetime. haha.

congrats on making $10m in a week. U are indeed a foreign talent. i didnt know pple whom can make 15% in a week using $67m capital stay in crab location n buy $800 psf houses.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 11:52
ya rite.....

I did make money. I took a short position on S&P about 5 days before the earth quake in Japan. I closed the position either last week or the week before.

I was just kidding that I made more in one week than that chap make in his whole lifetime. but that was just a rhetorical flourish.

but the money is not peanuts.

teddybear
14-04-11, 11:59
You forgot to consider:

1) High-rise buildings have more stringent requirement to low-rise. The truth is, landed properties' qualities are known to be much more inferior to say a condo of >20 storeys high. Somehow, landed properties repair costs and frequency are much higher than condos. Also, lots of leakage problems and clogging, particularly the roof top.

2) E.g. Chijmes are not used as residential, but as commercial. They still need smooth and clean running water, electricity, environment etc right? If people want to live in why not? Why can't?

3) Many of the castles in UK are several hundreds years old. Many of the lords and rich still living in there.

4) If we consider tear down and rebuild for own stay vs maintenance, it seems that it is cheaper to just maintain than rebuild, and this is particularly so for condos. On the other hand, for developers to maximize land use and create fanciful things to justify to sell at higher price, it is better to rebuild (and create more useless space like big big air-con ledges and balconies vs the old which doesn't have these!).


3 points to consider (no right or wrong):

1. Those buildings you've mentioned are essentially low rise buildings that are not subjected to huge vertical loadings. Consider the amount of loads sustained by a 25 storey point block. Different comparisons! We are probably looking more at old tall buildings like the Empire State building if we're to make logical comparisons.

2. Again those places you've mentioned are more commercialized than residential therefore there is a constant pumping of $$ to continually conduct structural stability checks as well as refurbishing required to allow sustained usage. For residential areas, who'll continually conduct these checks and who wants to pay? Maybe only the rich who can afford it but certainly not HDB dwellers who are largely not so well off. Setting the precedence in condo would inevitably raise concerns from the heartlanders in time to come so govt very careful lor...:tsk-tsk:

3. Just to push a little further, buildings standing for 500 years or even the Egyptian pyramids do not use concrete like modern technology. It uses expertly cut huge stone blocks, and stacked one on top of another. Different construction methods altogether.

teddybear
14-04-11, 12:04
Sengkang to D'Leedon - My experience is that if totally smooth, about 30 mins. Got jam, all hell break lose, >1 hour? :banghead:


got 30mins meh? If got jam then maybe. but in that case Farrer road jams pretty badly in the morning. your 5 min is assuming smooth traffic right?

IF smooth traffic, I can get to the city in 15 mins from places like AMK.

I don't know where orchard residence is but is it within walking distance to Orchard? I think got big difference between drive and walking.

Once you need to drive, 5min vs 15mins what is the difference? you probably spend more time looking for parking, walking out, etc.

DaytonaSS
14-04-11, 12:08
I did make money. I took a short position on S&P about 5 days before the earth quake in Japan. I closed the position either last week or the week before.

I was just kidding that I made more in one week than that chap make in his whole lifetime. but that was just a rhetorical flourish.

but the money is not peanuts.

then i apologise for the outburst, u are "kidding" on most of your post and i shouldnt take you seriously. U should say earlier, cos i took you seriously on most of your post.

My bad, i just read it with a pitch of salt since u r kidding most of the time.

teddybear
14-04-11, 12:11
Have you actually tried that?
a) 1 hour drive, smooth flow and traffic, scenic surroundings, almost zero motorcycles vs
b) 30 mins stop-start traffic, nothing to see all around, people cutting in at will without signalling, all those motorcycles squeezing in from any places and both sides?

Foreigners will tell you that they rather prefer (a) than (b)! :doh:


Distance/location is not the only criteria nowadays. There are other considerations like views, size of the units etc. OCR has many projects with waterfront and reservoir views that make them attractive and in demand. With new quality malls, business parks and improved transport networks in the OCR, the gap will actually narrow, not widen. For a foreigner used to 2 hour drives to the city in his country, 30 mins is nothing. Only Singaporeans feel that it is too far..

devilplate
14-04-11, 12:11
Sengkang to D'Leedon - My experience is that if totally smooth, about 30 mins. Got jam, all hell break lose, >1 hour? :banghead:

y sk to dl?

y use dl as reference point?

devilplate
14-04-11, 12:12
Have you actually tried that?
a) 1 hour drive, smooth flow and traffic, scenic surroundings, almost zero motorcycles vs
b) 30 mins stop-start traffic, nothing to see all around, people cutting in at will without signalling, all those motorcycles squeezing in from any places and both sides?

Foreigners will tell you that they rather prefer (a) than (b)! :doh:

too much assumptions

teddybear
14-04-11, 12:12
Naive! You can short a stock as long as you like (there are instruments to do that). :rolleyes:
However, there is no way to short just OCR properties (excluding CCR)! Don't know any instruments to do that. :p


I don't think I can be short a stock that long in singapore.

devilplate
14-04-11, 12:17
Naive! You can short a stock as long as you like (there are instruments to do that). :rolleyes:
However, there is no way to short just OCR properties (excluding CCR)! Don't know any instruments to do that. :p

yes...can long term short....jus nid to pay interest

anyway, tok cork sing song nia la....haha

can only short OCR by selling all ur OCRs now

teddybear
14-04-11, 12:22
You are sooooo sharp! :cheers1:

Got friends own 4 bungalows in D10/11, own 3 cars (BMW 7xx, Mercedes 7 seaters, BMW sports convertible), got 3 maids, 1 chaffeur. He just totally tear down and rebuild his own bungalow. Daughter and son tuitions and enrichment classes fully lined up, all rounded (other than English, Chinese, Math, Science, etc, include lessons like takwando, piano, swimming, tennis, skating, etc (got all best teachers and tuition centres, e.g. in Goldhill Plaza, United Square)). He said not to show off when I teased him but just that since can afford to pay to get more luxury life, why not? Does he need to torture himself and his family members to save money when his reserve can last 3 generations even with ZERO SALARY income (the other 3 bungalows earning rental) and monthly expenses of $25k per month? :p


congrats on making $10m in a week. U are indeed a foreign talent. i didnt know pple whom can make 15% in a week using $67m capital stay in crab location n buy $800 psf houses.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 12:22
Naive! You can short a stock as long as you like (there are instruments to do that). :rolleyes:
However, there is no way to short just OCR properties (excluding CCR)! Don't know any instruments to do that. :p

easy, just borrow my OCR condo and sell it now, and buy it back in two years' time and return it to me.

chiaberry
14-04-11, 12:22
yes...can long term short....jus nid to pay interest

anyway, tok cork sing song nia la....haha

can only short OCR by selling all ur OCRs now

I got not OCRs to short. What I thought in my portfolio to be OCR was RCR and what I thought to be RCR was CCR (fringes). :mad: That was before I know of this type of terminology OCR/RCR/CCR. Only found out with the new URA website revamp where they list the pty as wadever CR (O/R/C). hmmm in the past anyhow buy, don't even know what I am buying. Never look to see what CR is waht. :ashamed1:

devilplate
14-04-11, 12:24
You are sooooo sharp! :cheers1:

Do we need to torture ourselves and our family members to save money when our reserve can last 3 generations even without ZERO income and monthly expenses of $25k per month? :p

UHNWI TEDDY!!!

amk
14-04-11, 12:26
I did make money. I took a short position on S&P about 5 days before the earth quake in Japan. I closed the position either last week or the week before.

look, u've got to admit your were actually "saved" by the earth quake, dun u ? without it how could u ever make anything ? now even with the japan crisis, the US market is still up. pls dun tell everyone you were so smart to predict a japan crisis

stalingrad
14-04-11, 12:27
look, u've got to admit your were actually "saved" by the earth quake, dun u ? without it how could u ever make anything ? now even with the japan crisis, the US market is still up. pls dun tell everyone you were so smart to predict a japan crisis

haha, amk, you are so smart. kudos to you.

teddybear
14-04-11, 12:28
ai yoh short $1m only and still so cumbersome? :doh:


easy, just borrow my OCR condo and sell it now, and buy it back in two years' time and return it to me.

stalingrad
14-04-11, 12:29
ai yoh short $1m only and still so cumbersome? :doh:
no, more than $2 million now.

teddybear
14-04-11, 12:33
Didn't know you were so smart!

By the way, why give yourself so much stress? I LONG S&P500 long ago and it is still going up (just ignore the fluctuations). Don't have to think so hard on the short term to get in and out since we are not god to predict short-term movements, which are pretty random. History has shown that all short-term traders either die a tragic death, suicide, or die broke with broken families, main cause being too much uncertainty, up and down, too much stress! :banghead:
Point you to Jesse Livermore story, the trader who was once richer and more powerful than J.P. Morgan! :cheers1:


haha, you are wrong. I closed my short before the market started going up again. I made more money in one week than you can make in your lifetime. haha.