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Residential price recovery has overstayed its welcome
by Tan Chin Keong
04:46 AM Apr 15, 2011
The Singapore residential property market has had a very strong recovery since mid-2009 and prices are hitting record highs. However, the recovery has also prompted the Government to announce four rounds of residential property market cooling measures since September 2009.
The harshest so far has been the latest round introduced in January, consisting of further hikes in the seller's stamp duty and reductions in mortgage loan-to-value ratios.
The cooling measures have caused cracks in the market. Private residential sales volume and price gains have recently slowed and we see potential downside for prices in Singapore. Mass market private properties, which have led the current recovery, could fall 10 to 15 per cent this year, while prime properties could lose zero to 5 per cent. Our cautious outlook is predicated not only on the harsh cooling measures but also on a number of structural drivers of the current recovery that we believe could turn negative over the next one to two years.
Current recovery driven by a confluence of supportive factors
With little doubt, Singapore's strong economic growth and record-low interest rates have been the two main drivers of the residential property market recovery. The stellar 14.5 per cent gross domestic product growth last year has resulted in strong employment conditions and higher salaries, which in turn boosted home demand. Meanwhile, record-low interest rates have helped keep mortgages affordable despite rising property prices.
Another driver for the recovery has been Singapore's steady population growth. From 2000 to 2009, Singapore's successful repositioning as a global city and its liberal immigration policy ushered the population to grow from 4 million to 5 million - an annual growth rate of 2.4 per cent.
Amid this steady increase, the supply of residential property units actually plummeted. In 2000, about 37,000 homes were completed, of which some 28,000 were Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, and 9,000 were private residential units. However, the total number of completed units fell to a low of around 9,000 in 2006 (HDB 3,000; private residential 6,000), and a still-paltry 17,000 in 2009 (HDB 7,000; private residential 10,000).
The culprit, in our view, was the HDB's adoption of the Build-to-Order scheme in 2001, which significantly slowed down the HDB flat construction process.
Supportive factors expected to wane
We believe these market supportive factors will wane. Singapore's economic growth is expected to slow down to between 4 and 6 per cent this year as export growth tapers off, and employment and income growth, though healthy, may not be as strong as last year.
And while interest rates could remain depressed, they will not stay low forever. In recent speeches, United States Federal Reserve officials have reignited market concerns about the end of quantitative easing and the eventual tightening of monetary policy.
Given that Singapore interest rates tend to follow US interest rates, the day of reckoning for mortgages in Singapore may not be far away. UBS expects the Fed to start hiking rates in the first quarter of next year, which means Singapore interest rates could also rise early next year.
The Government has also tightened some of its permanent residence policies, resulting in a drop in the annual population growth rate to 1.7 per cent last year. Foreign worker levies will also be raised further as announced in this year's Budget. All this would mean that population and housing demand growth should slow.
In addition, the HDB has been very active in launching new supply of public flats over the past year and this should result in a significant increase in completed HDB flats by late 2012 or early 2013. We estimate that 16,000 HDB flats would be completed in 2013.
In the private residential property market, the Urban Redevelopment Authority has been actively launching new sites, especially mass market ones in suburban areas, through both its confirmed and reserve lists. This should help address the residential property supply shortage that has built up in recent years.
For these reasons, we expect Singapore residential prices to decline. For potential home-buyers, this means a potential price relief. For investors, better returns could be achieved this year from office and industrial property exposure, where rentals have continued to rise recently driven by healthy occupier demand.
Tan Chin Keong is an analyst at UBS Wealth Management Research.
It is quite alarming that while in 2000, HDB built more flats for Singaporeans than the private sector, in 2006, the number of completed HDB flats was miserably lower than private houses. This trend probably lasted through to 2009. This is a clear indication that those couples who needed to buy during this period of time had very limited choice. BTO!!! :scared-4:
Good observation... How can hdb constitute 80% of singapore housing but build less than condo?
This guy very brave huh, predict 10 to 15% drop this year alone in mass market prices ;)
The last report I read from CLSA predicts 5% drop only.
mass market condo selling at $1200-$1300 after dropping 10% is still $1080-$1170. Scant consolation.
When will OCR prices surpass not so prime CCR prices? :D
devilplate
19-04-11, 00:40
When will OCR prices surpass not so prime CCR prices? :D
in terms of PSF....'prime' OCR oredi surpass those old old CMI CCR
When such thing happen, we know OCR TOP (not "T.O.P." but PEAK) liao! :scared-1:
in terms of PSF....'prime' OCR oredi surpass those old old CMI CCR
devilplate
19-04-11, 00:58
When such thing happen, we know OCR TOP (not "T.O.P." but PEAK) liao! :scared-1:
hehe...how abt OCR MM.....super peak peak? hehe
even cheapest super cui 8courtyard 1bedder priced close to 1kpsf
History will always repeat themselves, but in another form that is not so easily recognizable. The gullibles are always the gullibles putting themselves on the chopping board. They will never understand that CHEAP or EXPENSIVE is not based on the absolute price...... :scared-3:
hehe...how abt OCR MM.....super peak peak? hehe
even cheapest super cui 8courtyard 1bedder priced close to 1kpsf
:doh:
we're going the way of hk much earlier than expected.
turn left, kok into shoerack, turn right kok into sofa.
hehe...how abt OCR MM.....super peak peak? hehe
even cheapest super cui 8courtyard 1bedder priced close to 1kpsf
:doh:
we're going the way of hk much earlier than expected.
turn left, kok into shoerack, turn right kok into sofa. Actually the super MM cannot have sofa and shoes... You put bed on baywindow. One small table and one small wardrobe. Nothing else... Standing in the centre of the room, you can stretch your hand to touch the kitchen and toilet door as well. :scared-1:
Really dread this new MM phenomenon.... Make our city no class.... People will laugh at how miserable Singapore is.... I was once so proud that we are a small island but can accommodate so many people yet have nice comfortable homes to stay and nice open spaces.... All these are going away with over crowding everywhere
Actually what determine the desirable population size in a country? Is it the demographic needs? Like in 15 years, there'll be 30% people above 65 years old so we'll need another **% to help take care??? If its purely replacement ratio, then the number just have to stay constant for next many years can already? Just bring in foreigners to cover the pathetic birth rate in the country can already?
We're living in a city of hotels at the rate of MMs are built.
devilplate
19-04-11, 20:21
We're living in a city of hotels at the rate of MMs are built.
not so bad la....MM projects usually boutique apts mah....those big projects so far still good size even though 2bedder shrunk to 7xxsqft
one project like 8courtyard oredi 600 + units of gd size units ........each geylang MM project about 50-80units+-.....total about 8-10 such MM projects equal to 1 8courtyard wor.....dun be so alarmed:D
so assuming this comes to singapore, does that mean there are people who will actually rent such a shoebox condo versus a 3 room hdb flat? :scared-4:
Actually the super MM cannot have sofa and shoes... You put bed on baywindow. One small table and one small wardrobe. Nothing else... Standing in the centre of the room, you can stretch your hand to touch the kitchen and toilet door as well. :scared-1:
not so bad la....MM projects usually boutique apts mah....those big projects so far still good size even though 2bedder shrunk to 7xxsqft
one project like 8courtyard oredi 600 + units of gd size units ........each geylang MM project about 50-80units+-.....total about 8-10 such MM projects equal to 1 8courtyard wor.....dun be so alarmed:D
So many precious land at spottiswoode and anson road used to build a big number of MMs. Well, that's just my opinion.
kingkong1984
19-04-11, 21:29
So many precious land at spottiswoode and anson road used to build a big number of MMs. Well, that's just my opinion.
Small is beautiful. Make small, sell high, sure will make someone happy. Last owner worry only.
Singapore want to be world class city right? In world class cities like new york, london, tokyo, MMs are common.
World class city (wanna be) = world class prices (not there yet) = smaller units (happening now) = MM (viola!).
This is just the beginning.....:(
so assuming this comes to singapore, does that mean there are people who will actually rent such a shoebox condo versus a 3 room hdb flat? :scared-4:
I rather rent 3 room hdb buy better furnishings to spruce up e place but if mm I cannot stand it sure claustrophic!!
I rather rent 3 room hdb buy better furnishings to spruce up e place but if mm I cannot stand it sure claustrophic!!
Bachelor pad ard 600sqft in prime location sounds like a good idea. Tons of successful 30++ single women/man ard. Feel there is a market for this group of individuals. 600sqft in D10 quiet corner + 2 seater convertable. Lifestyle man!
I rather rent 3 room hdb buy better furnishings to spruce up e place but if mm I cannot stand it sure claustrophic!!
ya manz.. rental for a 3room hdb is 2k-2.4k in some location.
buy and throw into rental market.
meanwhile if opportunities come, condo just buy in parents' name.
best of both world.
some of the three room flats have been transformed to look really really nice. only no security guard and swimming pool.
kingkong1984
20-04-11, 03:01
some of the three room flats have been transformed to look really really nice. only no security guard and swimming pool.
So?
Who cares when u lock your front door and don't swim. The internal space is the same private space everywhere in the island.
some of the three room flats have been transformed to look really really nice. only no security guard and swimming pool.
Just find a HDB flat right beside the swimming pool and gym. Go down can access these facilities le. Buy a security system from cisco. As good as condo le. However, it is the surrounding area like corridor and carparks that you really cannot do anything about it. Plus the fact that people will just come and throw rubbish advertisement into your house or come sell ice cream, etc. These stuffs remain. :doh:
Heard lots of complains about urinating in HDB lifts.
Just find a HDB flat right beside the swimming pool and gym. Go down can access these facilities le. Buy a security system from cisco. As good as condo le. However, it is the surrounding area like corridor and carparks that you really cannot do anything about it. Plus the fact that people will just come and throw rubbish advertisement into your house or come sell ice cream, etc. These stuffs remain. :doh:
Heard lots of complains about urinating in HDB lifts.There you've heard it... its not a myth... its here to stay... in lifts, carparks, everywhere... :scared-1:
proud owner
20-04-11, 08:36
Singapore want to be world class city right? In world class cities like new york, london, tokyo, MMs are common.
World class city (wanna be) = world class prices (not there yet) = smaller units (happening now) = MM (viola!).
This is just the beginning.....:(
should be :
world class city (wanna be ) = world class prices (there already) = world class amenities (far from it)
Bachelor pad ard 600sqft in prime location sounds like a good idea. Tons of successful 30++ single women/man ard. Feel there is a market for this group of individuals. 600sqft in D10 quiet corner + 2 seater convertable. Lifestyle man!
If want to impress chicks a MM beats three room hdb hands down... Near town, after party short drive home, nice lift lobby, then go up and have some action.... Next morning, swim with bikini babe then breakfast in town then bs k home for more action.... tell me how to beat that?
proud owner
20-04-11, 10:38
If want to impress chicks a MM beats three room hdb hands down... Near town, after party short drive home, nice lift lobby, then go up and have some action.... Next morning, swim with bikini babe then breakfast in town then bs k home for more action.... tell me how to beat that?
good for ONS
but hor singaporean cha bor (majoirty) are SPG ..
if you are ang moh ... ride sooter , take MRT , stay HDB they also think you are COOL ... can blend with the people , sociable, smart ..etc
if you local .. they think you are poor, cheapskate, CMI, UNCLE, etc etc
good for ONS
but hor singaporean cha bor (majoirty) are SPG ..
if you are ang moh ... ride sooter , take MRT , stay HDB they also think you are COOL ... can blend with the people , sociable, smart ..etc
if you local .. they think you are poor, cheapskate, CMI, UNCLE, etc etc
That's true. Therefore, at least get a 2 bedder. In case accident happen, you don't have to scramble and buy a bigger house.
ahh.. now i understand why MMs are selling like hot cakes. :D
If want to impress chicks a MM beats three room hdb hands down... Near town, after party short drive home, nice lift lobby, then go up and have some action.... Next morning, swim with bikini babe then breakfast in town then bs k home for more action.... tell me how to beat that?
devilplate
20-04-11, 10:44
That's true. Therefore, at least get a 2 bedder. In case accident happen, you don't have to scramble and buy a bigger house.
ONS leh...if accident happen...abortion one lor:p
devilplate
20-04-11, 10:46
ahh.. now i understand why MMs are selling like hot cakes. :D
yeah....i got a yng tenant...mid 20s, rather pay more for my MM den nearby 3rm flat....hehe
my young and single colleague says the same thing, that he'd rather buy an MM condo than a bigger hdb. :beats-me-man:
any good MMs to recommend for around $600k?
yeah....i got a yng tenant...mid 20s, rather pay more for my MM den nearby 3rm flat....hehe
ahh.. now i understand why MMs are selling like hot cakes. :D
Tons of pple not getting married cos too successful n dont wanna be tied down. Good size "Bpad" ensures the fun "lifestyle" without the commitment!
ONS leh...if accident happen...abortion one lor:p
AHAHHA. to add to it! Raw is War issit it?
If want to impress chicks a MM beats three room hdb hands down... Near town, after party short drive home, nice lift lobby, then go up and have some action.... Next morning, swim with bikini babe then breakfast in town then bs k home for more action.... tell me how to beat that?
you must be one ugly dude..:)
my young and single colleague says the same thing, that he'd rather buy an MM condo than a bigger hdb. :beats-me-man:
any good MMs to recommend for around $600k?
Gen Y? MM seems designed for this generation.
devilplate
20-04-11, 11:01
my young and single colleague says the same thing, that he'd rather buy an MM condo than a bigger hdb. :beats-me-man:
any good MMs to recommend for around $600k?
buy from our bro 'i luv mm' lor....his Doasia....but hor u goto top up ur budget:D
you must be one ugly dude..:)
hahahhahah condo is not like car/cash/watch, u cant flash it when u picking up the chick.
proud owner
20-04-11, 11:05
ONS leh...if accident happen...abortion one lor:p
can abort consider heng
otherwise kana claim rape
by then wish you have bought HDB
cannot ahh.. sink in 40% cash very heartpain.
got big development w many MMs and big pool? so that i can sit there lim kopi every morning watching spg bikini babes. :D
acherly, WFI studio would be nice, but exceed my puny budget lei..
buy from our bro 'i luv mm' lor....his Doasia....but hor u goto top up ur budget:D
devilplate
20-04-11, 11:12
cannot ahh.. sink in 40% cash very heartpain.
got big development w many MMs and big pool? so that i can sit there lim kopi every morning watching spg bikini babes. :D
acherly, WFI studio would be nice, but exceed my puny budget lei..
i tot WFI within 600k?:confused:
devilplate
20-04-11, 11:13
can abort consider heng
otherwise kana claim rape
by then wish you have bought HDB
anyhow aso can claim rape.....so dun ONS lor....LOL
izit? tot i heard from agent fren reservoir view units above 600k and all snapped up.
i tot WFI within 600k?:confused:
you must be one ugly dude..:)
jadey youn sound like a cool chick.... Why you say I am ugly?
Gen Y? MM seems designed for this generation.MM seems designed for this generation of unmarried people... Honestly, children not = MM. :doh:
devilplate
20-04-11, 11:23
izit? tot i heard from agent fren reservoir view units above 600k and all snapped up.
whr got reservoir facing 1bedder in WFI? pathetic mini pocketed view counted meh? u shd go for the cheaper units....after furniture vouchers will be <600k
oic, okok thanx i go research deeper.
any other recommendations for MMs w big pool? :D
whr got reservoir facing 1bedder in WFI? pathetic mini pocketed view counted meh? u shd go for the cheaper units....after furniture vouchers will be <600k
devilplate
20-04-11, 11:26
oic, okok thanx i go research deeper.
any other recommendations for MMs w big pool? :D
now only left with hedges park.....can rent to happening air steward/stewardess....they dun nid MRT one......always take cab to airport:D
still got 48xk studio units when i go there over the wkend
devilplate
20-04-11, 11:29
jadey youn sound like a cool chick.... Why you say I am ugly?
jadey eyeing ugly but rich dudes? :D
ooh.. 480k sounds yummy, but why would i want to rent to happening steward. krkrkr.
thanx again, i take a closer look at both.
now only left with hedges park.....can rent to happening air steward/stewardess....they dun nid MRT one......always take cab to airport:D
still got 48xk studio units when i go there over the wkend
devilplate
20-04-11, 11:33
ooh.. 480k sounds yummy, but why would i want to rent to happening steward. krkrkr.
thanx again, i take a closer look at both.
oooo.....u wana buy one for ur own pleasure ar? krkrkr:D
no lah, buy ocr mm in case market turns, i can give to son next time. muahaha.
oooo.....u wana buy one for ur own pleasure ar? krkrkr:D
MM seems designed for this generation of unmarried people... Honestly, children not = MM. :doh:
heeheehee ya, i also got this feeling it attracts gen Y youngsters. My Gen X grow up in good size HDB, thus find MM very hard to swollow.
good for ONS
but hor singaporean cha bor (majoirty) are SPG ..
if you are ang moh ... ride sooter , take MRT , stay HDB they also think you are COOL ... can blend with the people , sociable, smart ..etc
if you local .. they think you are poor, cheapskate, CMI, UNCLE, etc etc
tats why always has a saying "ANG MO TUA KI ah!!!"
now only left with hedges park.....can rent to happening air steward/stewardess....they dun nid MRT one......always take cab to airport:D
still got 48xk studio units when i go there over the wkend
happening and pretty ones no need to rent, they usually stay in for free.
jadey eyeing ugly but rich dudes? :D
MM = rich? :doh:
good for ONS
but hor singaporean cha bor (majoirty) are SPG ..
if you are ang moh ... ride sooter , take MRT , stay HDB they also think you are COOL ... can blend with the people , sociable, smart ..etc
if you local .. they think you are poor, cheapskate, CMI, UNCLE, etc etc
True case. a frd's aunt used to be pretty,Wf a married ang
Moh as his mistress spg from her 20s til 40.. Finally kena disposed off.
cool.. Spg transformed into a spinster!! From a wonderful fairytale turned in lone pathetic unwanted aunty.
Woman/man. Who depreciate more and faster,even if both men woman are equally rich and successful.??
NOT true lah. If you own a MM in Orchard and drive a Sports Convertible, the girl still still you more up then if are Ang Mo but living in 3-rm flat in Yishun and driving a scooter. :p
good for ONS
but hor singaporean cha bor (majoirty) are SPG ..
if you are ang moh ... ride sooter , take MRT , stay HDB they also think you are COOL ... can blend with the people , sociable, smart ..etc
if you local .. they think you are poor, cheapskate, CMI, UNCLE, etc etc
devilplate
21-04-11, 09:09
NOT true lah. If you own a MM in Orchard and drive a Sports Convertible, the girl still still you more up then if are Ang Mo but living in 3-rm flat in Yishun and driving a scooter. :p
yeah, singka gers not tat silly la....
angmor=goodie?:tsk-tsk: :tsk-tsk:
got $$=goodie
who's richer= BETTER
Actually those who still think ang mo rich must be really silly.... Singapore property prices so high, in fact it's one of the highest in the world, so singaporeans who owns properties must be one of the richest in the world.... Unless you Are referring to the senior management type ang mo, where their salary are much higher.... But usually these are married and old Liao.... No sure if they still can bring the cha bo home haha....
so if sin ladies who are materialistic still look to nag mo then good luck to them.... Coz those I come across are really damn stingy man....
proud owner
21-04-11, 09:44
yeah, singka gers not tat silly la....
angmor=goodie?:tsk-tsk: :tsk-tsk:
got $$=goodie
who's richer= BETTER
have u ever seen any cases in singapore ...
where ang moh kana arrested becos ONS girls claim kana rape ?
almost NEVER
so far all arrested are non ang moh
so MM or HDB still SPG go for ang moh first
poor asian man have to spend $$ buy MM, convertible , etc just to get laid
devilplate
21-04-11, 09:53
have u ever seen any cases in singapore ...
where ang moh kana arrested becos ONS girls claim kana rape ?
almost NEVER
so far all arrested are non ang moh
so MM or HDB still SPG go for ang moh first
poor asian man have to spend $$ buy MM, convertible , etc just to get laid
very questionable leh....
all the gers i noe dun like angmor leh....they prefer asians.....
mabe the gers i mix wif r diff from urs....my english vy broken ones....so i dun mix wif 'jiat cantang' gers:ashamed1: :D
Do ang mo girls like sing boys?
Wild Falcon
21-04-11, 11:00
No sad no sad.
The best looking girl and best quality usually still get choped by the SG guys.
Most of the SPGs are fugly. The ang moh has different taste when it comes to Asians, they like the "exotic-look", more towards the Filipino type of look, on the slutty side. So seriously, different target.
have u ever seen any cases in singapore ...
where ang moh kana arrested becos ONS girls claim kana rape ?
almost NEVER
so far all arrested are non ang moh
so MM or HDB still SPG go for ang moh first
poor asian man have to spend $$ buy MM, convertible , etc just to get laid
Hi Jadey are you an oil trader?
Reading the title reminds me of a phrase, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid".
buy from our bro 'i luv mm' lor....his Doasia....but hor u goto top up ur budget:D
Up budget oso bo liao lah... SOLD AT NEW HIGH abv 1300psf
Actually those who still think ang mo rich must be really silly....
Trust me, so many silly SPG here u cannot even imagine. The ang mos I know are mostly selfish, stingy, mcp, and not necessarily rich. But silly girls throw themselves at them.:cool: some of them are quite chiao. Never understood their mindset. One of them told me, sporean men are useless, childish, no fun, chor lor, etc. :cool: U want to find one ? Go to Brix any nite.
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