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Will election results affect the housing market?
by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Apr 29, 2011
With the General Election (GE) just around the corner, several people have asked me whether I think the poll results would have an impact on the private housing market.
If you are asking whether investor confidence in private property here would be affected, the answer is a definite no. Whatever the outcome of the polls, be it by a clear margin or a narrow victory for the ruling party, I feel the liquidity factor is just too strong and I am convinced the buying, as well as prices, will not drop.
But if you are asking whether the level of risk would change following the elections, the answer is likely yes. The most obvious change would be in the level of policy risk. Depending on how the ruling party reads the results of the elections and what it interprets the electorate wants done, it may take an entirely different tack on how it has been handling the housing problem.
With the exception of the most recent set of cooling measures in January, quite a few property analysts believe the authorities have been tackling the housing market with kid gloves as they have one eye on the GE. This distraction will soon be gone.
Most of the measures have been very focused and targeted mainly at speculators. Of course, the authorities are assuming that this group of opportunists are the main culprits - get rid of them and the problem is solved - forgetting perhaps that investors can also behave irrationally.
Our Government has won many admirers both within and outside Singapore for its creativity in coming up with effective measures in tackling our problems. In my opinion, it just needs clear feedback on what voters want. I think its present measured approach is what it feels would produce the outcome that will make the overwhelming majority happy, or at least not make them unhappy. I think it will not alter its approach if it is not convinced otherwise.
The GE is one opportunity where citizens can give feedback to the ruling party on what it wants. And so, depending on the voting patterns, it may not necessarily mean more of the same measures such as lower loan limits. Let us brace ourselves come Polling Day.
For now, the liquidity beast tormenting our housing market would not just lie still and die. Instead, it has grown stronger.
Compared with what other regional countries, such as China, India or Australia, are doing to cool their property markets, we seem to be behind the curve.
As a laggard in this respect, we are probably viewed by most regional investors as having the most market upside. This is probably providing the strong underlying support for the robust developers' sales we have experienced so far.
Lately, some market comments on this issue appear to suggest that we need not worry too much about the high volume of sales because this has now become the norm.
We are treading into dangerous territory if we buy this argument. How can the current level of sales coming after four sets of cooling measures culminating in one of the most stringent - a punitive sellers' stamp duty - be considered normal? If we remove these cooling measures today, how high do you think the buying will soar to?
This reminds me of the fable about a frog being cooked by a slow flame in a beaker of water. Because the temperature of the water was raised gradually, the frog did not realise the danger it was in as it adjusted to each degree rise in temperature as the norm.
If you are still not convinced, let us take the low-interest rate environment. It has been with us for the longest time ever experienced by our housing market. Can we consider this the new norm?
Colin Tan is head, research and consultancy, at Chesterton Suntec International.
If borrowing interest rates go up will it push the prices up?
devilplate
07-05-11, 14:15
If borrowing interest rates go up will it push the prices up?
Nid to noe wats the basis for int rate to go up
Nid to noe wats the basis for int rate to go up
With the US unemployment at 9% and all the other factors, not sure if rates will go up. SOR just came down yesterday.
Geylang OKT
07-05-11, 22:15
Properties will crash until buay jin chu if the opposition gains inroads into Parliament :D :D :D
devilplate
07-05-11, 22:26
Properties will crash until buay jin chu if the opposition gains inroads into Parliament :D :D :D
Stocks crash till delisted from monday onwards:D
Geylang OKT
07-05-11, 23:01
Stocks crash till delisted from monday onwards:D
why wenqing never say we fearmongering har? :D :D :D
Regulators
07-05-11, 23:47
I think nobody in any party mentioned about stepping up on anti-vice and send the china and thai chickens home
Geylang OKT
07-05-11, 23:50
This goes to show that we are well loved by all parties :D :D :D
Regulators
07-05-11, 23:52
I think you should send the winning PAP candidates some chickens to congratulate them :D
This goes to show that we are well loved by all parties :D :D :D
Geylang OKT
07-05-11, 23:55
History in the making. WP wins Aljunied.
Poor Georgie Yeo.... the tiger got killed in the mountain :o :( :o
History in the making. WP wins Aljunied.
Poor Georgie Yeo.... the tiger got killed in the mountain :o :( :oThe worthy casualties in this GE were George Yeo and Mr Chiam CT.
Geylang OKT
08-05-11, 08:42
I am not going to touch any properties located in the aljunied grc.
Buy anything there sure cheong downwards until buay jin chu :scared-1: :scared-1: :scared-1: :scared-1:
too bad that tan jee say lost. I like his idea of more service industries.
Geylang OKT would be happy. Can promote his chicken service industry :D.
devilplate
08-05-11, 09:24
too bad that tan jee say lost. I like his idea of more service industries.
Geylang OKT would be happy. Can promote his chicken service industry :D.
If u realise, his proposal is in line wif current direction except tat pap will not phase out manufacturing completely
Come make Aljunied your new home...its the new prime district of Singapore where dreams come true. :D :p
Come make Aljunied your new home...its the new prime district of Singapore where dreams come true. :D :p
Place where residents need not live in fear..., actually not bad. U know something NEX is under Marine Parade GRC, so Aljunied resident esp those near Kovan, they vote for WP but facilities like Nex, which is nearby is in PAP ward...., lives still go on, normal...
They still have hope for the next round. President elect next. Tan Kin Lian coming standing in or he is preparing for next election with this team?
too bad that tan jee say lost. I like his idea of more service industries.
Geylang OKT would be happy. Can promote his chicken service industry :D.
Potong Pasir prices will go up now with a new waterfront proposal. Too bad this must have won a lot of the new residents in this area.
Properties will crash until buay jin chu if the opposition gains inroads into Parliament :D :D :D
devilplate
08-05-11, 09:48
Potong Pasir prices will go up now with a new waterfront proposal. Too bad this must have won a lot of the new residents in this area.
I tink only the hdb there benefitted
Potong Pasir prices will go up now with a new waterfront proposal. Too bad this must have won a lot of the new residents in this area.
Think those residents in new condos in PP that TOP during the last 5 years may have swing the votes in favor of PAP....., now wait for land tender beside PP MRT for private to build shopping mall....., 8@woodleigh price will go up further...
Not really. Potong Pasir is quite small and those new development like One Leicester, Wood28, etc will benefit from it as it is all walking distance.
I tink only the hdb there benefitted
URA will sell the land (large field) that is next to the PP MRT stn for commercial purpose very soon.
Think those residents in new condos in PP that TOP during the last 5 years may have swing the votes in favor of PAP....., now wait for land tender beside PP MRT for private to build shopping mall....., 8@woodleigh price will go up further...
devilplate
08-05-11, 10:06
Ok huat argh!!!!!
Nin residences will relaunch at 2000psf haa haa... :rolleyes:
Another residential site between the landed propeties and PP mrt stn will be selling at higher price.
Nin residences will relaunch at 2000psf haa haa... :rolleyes:
devilplate
08-05-11, 10:24
Even though i got vested interest in PP.... i dun tink pp condo px is lagging behind.... Its only their hdb px lags behind.
And we r oredi in the mid cycle of the bull run.... Downturn is imminent within the next 2-3yrs.... May not b able to see PP transformed in time....
The govt should have heard the people loud and clear:
- They want HDB housing prices pegged closer to their costs than so-called "subsidized market rate".
- They want priority to be given for CITIZENS (not their so-called "Singaporeans" that includes PRs (otherwise they should ask PRs to vote for the PAP)) in terms of jobs.
- They want priority to be given for CITIZENS in terms of schools vacancies (e.g. P1 registration, university places etc).
- They want better control of prices for GLCs which are controlling monopoly or duopoly businesses in Singapore (e.g. PUB prices, buses, MRT fares etc).
- They want MPs (regardless of party they are from) who can can serve them, listen, and air their greivance to the govt and see that policies implemented have been robustness debated and which will benefit CITIZENS & not PRs & foreigners.
Above implications means low-level foreigners should be kept out as they compete for jobs directly with the lower and middle-classes Singapore citizens.
High-level foreigners will still be welcomed to come here to live, stay, spend money here, buy properties, set up businesses, create jobs for Singapore citizens, all for the benefits of the economy of Singapore,
What are the implications of above? My take is:
a) HDB prices :- Most likely new HDB prices lower, resale HDB prices stagnant to lower.
b) mass market private condos:- Most likely lower with lower resale HDB prices since less HDB upgraders with increasing gap between HDB and condo prices, less middle-income foreigners here hence lesser demand.
c) prime and luxury market private condos :- Most likely no effect since there are relatively few mass market to luxury market upgraders, high-end foreigners coming in not affected.
devilplate
08-05-11, 13:12
Teddybear getting despo.... Mass market demand drop not gona benefit ccr....
U just nid mbt to strike off 4yrs ssd
Teddybear getting despo.... Mass market demand drop not gona benefit ccr....
U just nid mbt to strike off 4yrs ssdWith the new mandate given by the people of Tampines (not Singapore), he'll strike off 4 yr SSD and introduce 6 yr SSD.... :spliff2:. He'll add LTV to 40% and lay down a new rule.. no one is to own more than 3 properties in Singapore!!! He'll then have to sell his 3 other properties to meet this new ruling... :D
devilplate
08-05-11, 13:36
With the new mandate given by the people of Tampines (not Singapore), he'll strike off 4 yr SSD and introduce 6 yr SSD.... :spliff2:. He'll add LTV to 40% and lay down a new rule.. no one is to own more than 3 properties in Singapore!!! He'll then have to sell his 3 other properties to meet this new ruling... :D
Haha vy gd idea.... Tats it for sg
The govt should have heard the people loud and clear:
- They want HDB housing prices pegged closer to their costs than so-called "subsidized market rate".
- They want priority to be given for CITIZENS (not their so-called "Singaporeans" that includes PRs (otherwise they should ask PRs to vote for the PAP)) in terms of jobs.
- They want priority to be given for CITIZENS in terms of schools vacancies (e.g. P1 registration, university places etc).
- They want better control of prices for GLCs which are controlling monopoly or duopoly businesses in Singapore (e.g. PUB prices, buses, MRT fares etc).
- They want MPs (regardless of party they are from) who can can serve them, listen, and air their greivance to the govt and see that policies implemented have been robustness debated and which will benefit CITIZENS & not PRs & foreigners.
Above implications means low-level foreigners should be kept out as they compete for jobs directly with the lower and middle-classes Singapore citizens.
High-level foreigners will still be welcomed to come here to live, stay, spend money here, buy properties, set up businesses, create jobs for Singapore citizens, all for the benefits of the economy of Singapore,
What are the implications of above? My take is:
a) HDB prices :- Most likely new HDB prices lower, resale HDB prices stagnant to lower.
b) mass market private condos:- Most likely lower with lower resale HDB prices since less HDB upgraders with increasing gap between HDB and condo prices, less middle-income foreigners here hence lesser demand.
c) prime and luxury market private condos :- Most likely no effect since there are relatively few mass market to luxury market upgraders, high-end foreigners coming in not affected.
I think the fact the opposition is stronger in general means that overall the property price will be more moderate in years ahead since in general opposition represents a more socialist rather than capitalist/investment mindset. Policies like in australia where foreigner owned properties can only be sold to a citizen/PR may be implemented.
As PM says, there is a distinct shift in political landscape and ultimately this will have bearing on the housing market.
devilplate
08-05-11, 15:05
Many failed to distinguise hdb and pte ppty...
Mbt failed too..... He go disturb the rich playground by imposing 4yrs ssd n mabe tats y we see rich folks voting against pap.... One of them cud b teddy
Mbt goto wake up his idea.... Control n implement more policies on hdb resale px rather den pte ppty......
For pte ppty just nid to work on LTV
He made 2 very deadly mistakes:
1) Didn't control spiralling upwards new HDB prices and grossly insufficient supply (newspaper said about 20% of new voters, potentially people looking to buy their first property as well).
2) Impose 4 yrs SSD and 60% LTV on private properties, making many of the top 20% private property owners voting against him & PAP (as you said) as they scare will lower their private property values? :p
3) the other 60% existing HDB flats owners are neutral on spiralling property prices but got fed up with forever increasing costs of living (inflation >5%) while their salary stagnanted (heard friends saying salary increase 1% late last year) despite so-called robust economic growth and the Ministers getting about 30% pay rise. :o
Lose-lose actions! :banghead:
Many failed to distinguise hdb and pte ppty...
Mbt failed too..... He go disturb the rich playground by imposing 4yrs ssd n mabe tats y we see rich folks voting against pap.... One of them cud b teddy
Mbt goto wake up his idea.... Control n implement more policies on hdb resale px rather den pte ppty......
For pte ppty just nid to work on LTV
What is the difference between PRs and foreigners? You know as long as you have no criminal record and you bring in a big sum of money (think is $10m?), you can instantly become PR despite now that PR is difficult to get (difficult only for working middle class)? As such, any future policy that favors citizens/PRs and restrict selling to citizen & PR will affect mass market properties badly while neutral effect on prime market properties. It is obvious which sector you should invest in private properties going forward. :cheers1:
I think the fact the opposition is stronger in general means that overall the property price will be more moderate in years ahead since in general opposition represents a more socialist rather than capitalist/investment mindset. Policies like in australia where foreigner owned properties can only be sold to a citizen/PR may be implemented.
As PM says, there is a distinct shift in political landscape and ultimately this will have bearing on the housing market.
What is the difference between PRs and foreigners? You know as long as you have no criminal record and you bring in a big sum of money (think is $10m?), you can instantly become PR despite now that PR is difficult to get (difficult only for working middle class)? As such, any future policy that favors citizens/PRs and restrict selling to citizen & PR will affect mass market properties badly while neutral effect on prime market properties. It is obvious which sector you should invest in private properties going forward. :cheers1:
PR have more vested interest to buy and invest for longer term. For instance, right now many foreigners are buying because interest rate is so low and to them it is like renting for free. 3M property for 30K interest a year. If foreigner can only sell to PR or citizen then he will think twice since when he need to leave Spore and sell, he may not get back all the capital he invested since there will be a lower buyer base.
They can make more $ when they sell with the strong SGD.
PR have more vested interest to buy and invest for longer term. For instance, right now many foreigners are buying because interest rate is so low and to them it is like renting for free. 3M property for 30K interest a year. If foreigner can only sell to PR or citizen then he will think twice since when he need to leave Spore and sell, he may not get back all the capital he invested since there will be a lower buyer base.
devilplate
08-05-11, 16:56
PR have more vested interest to buy and invest for longer term. For instance, right now many foreigners are buying because interest rate is so low and to them it is like renting for free. 3M property for 30K interest a year. If foreigner can only sell to PR or citizen then he will think twice since when he need to leave Spore and sell, he may not get back all the capital he invested since there will be a lower buyer base.
U failed to distinguish between hdb n pte....
Who dare to complain if they cant afford to upgrade to condo? Ppl r only worried for the 1st timer for not being able to get a hdb flat
Aussie dun hf so call subsidize flats for their citizens ... Tats y they got more rules to curb on the ppty..
Many failed to distinguise hdb and pte ppty...
Mbt failed too..... He go disturb the rich playground by imposing 4yrs ssd n mabe tats y we see rich folks voting against pap.... One of them cud b teddy
Mbt goto wake up his idea.... Control n implement more policies on hdb resale px rather den pte ppty......
For pte ppty just nid to work on LTV
Ya, agree, basic fundamentals, he failed to distinguish..., maybe he also got caught up in the craze..., maybe they should made all key people involved in MBT ministry including himself declare property transactions at certain time period before any new policies is made, like 3 mths before measures is implemented, they cannot buy or sell properties, if they do, they should declare, like listed companies directors, they need to declared vested interest, etc.
Well, you are right. Only middle-class foreigners sell (the mass market properties). The real rich usually don't sell (their prime & luxury properties) as they like to maintain many different properties in many different countries which they can use at any time. Properties are part of their investment and diversification strategy as getting cash back is worse in the face of rapid depreciation of paper money. :cheers1:
PR have more vested interest to buy and invest for longer term. For instance, right now many foreigners are buying because interest rate is so low and to them it is like renting for free. 3M property for 30K interest a year. If foreigner can only sell to PR or citizen then he will think twice since when he need to leave Spore and sell, he may not get back all the capital he invested since there will be a lower buyer base.
...property price will be more moderate in years ahead since in general opposition represents a more socialist rather than capitalist/investment mindset
Not so fast yet... PAP is still in full control... The principle of gradual asset appreciation is not wrong. The current problem is just misguided policies, which can be adjusted. Just a few more loud voices in parliament are not going to influence policy makers.
kingkong1984
08-05-11, 21:02
Superb growth muted.
Normal growth expected.
Deliberate regressive prices expected in short term.
How to do it right?
Wait and see.
Take profit while you can!!!!!!!
Geylang OKT
08-05-11, 22:41
I think the fact the opposition is stronger in general means that overall the property price will be more moderate in years ahead since in general opposition represents a more socialist rather than capitalist/investment mindset. Policies like in australia where foreigner owned properties can only be sold to a citizen/PR may be implemented.
As PM says, there is a distinct shift in political landscape and ultimately this will have bearing on the housing market.
I agree and I say the direction going forward for the property market is down :eek: ;) :spliff2: :scared-5: :spliff: :cheers6: :cheers1: :D
I agree and I say the direction going forward for the property market is down :eek: ;) :spliff2: :scared-5: :spliff: :cheers6: :cheers1: :DIt will only go down if MBT introd CM5. Otherwise, unlikely lah... :D
kingkong1984
08-05-11, 23:02
The votes are cm5
Wake up wake up
devilplate
08-05-11, 23:09
The votes are cm5
Wake up wake up
if only Sti is red and the rest is green tmr.....den we really goto repent for 5yrs:scared-5:
bargain hunter
09-05-11, 00:08
seems like sg and rest of asia still seeing fund outflows so prossibly all red tomorrow. LOL.
if only Sti is red and the rest is green tmr.....den we really goto repent for 5yrs:scared-5:
Wild Falcon
09-05-11, 11:45
Waterfront proposal means more nonsensical construction for the next 5 years that may not benefit you. Look at Bishan Park now. Used to be a nice park where everyone including dogs can enjoy. Ever since they started building a $1.2 billion artificial river, the place now look horrible and worse still, cause so much flooding in Bishan. Think twice before u embrace every single "upgrading" projects - some are complete waste of money and only increase conservancy charges.
Potong Pasir prices will go up now with a new waterfront proposal. Too bad this must have won a lot of the new residents in this area.
Wild Falcon
09-05-11, 11:52
Just ban PR from buying HDBs. I'm sure prices will moderate.. But those who own HDB better not kpkb.
Many failed to distinguise hdb and pte ppty...
Mbt failed too..... He go disturb the rich playground by imposing 4yrs ssd n mabe tats y we see rich folks voting against pap.... One of them cud b teddy
Mbt goto wake up his idea.... Control n implement more policies on hdb resale px rather den pte ppty......
For pte ppty just nid to work on LTV
devilplate
09-05-11, 11:58
Just ban PR from buying HDBs. I'm sure prices will moderate.. But those who own HDB better not kpkb.
if MBT is smart....he wud just do so and explain it nicely tat he listens to the people and opposition teams proposals......den nobody can kpkb:D :D :D
phantom_opera
09-05-11, 12:02
Ban PRs from HDB? Then PRs still cannot afford condos, then PRs rent HDBs, rental goes up, Singaporeans become happy landlord ?? :tsk-tsk:
devilplate
09-05-11, 12:03
Ban PRs from HDB? Then PRs still cannot afford condos, then PRs rent HDBs, rental goes up, Singaporeans become happy landlord ?? :tsk-tsk:
yes.....win-win
nobody will complain about receiving higher rental wat....only complain resale px too high:D
and if PR finds the rental too high....they can always balek kampong
less PR, less overcrowding of MRT.....all happy:D
Ban PRs from HDB? Then PRs still cannot afford condos, then PRs rent HDBs, rental goes up, Singaporeans become happy landlord ?? :tsk-tsk:
Only Singaporeans can be landlord. Welcome all FT in and they work for us, we collect rent shake legs at home haa haa... :rolleyes:
Did not know the project has caused so much inconvenience to people in Bishan. Why they did not vote MIW out?
Waterfront proposal means more nonsensical construction for the next 5 years that may not benefit you. Look at Bishan Park now. Used to be a nice park where everyone including dogs can enjoy. Ever since they started building a $1.2 billion artificial river, the place now look horrible and worse still, cause so much flooding in Bishan. Think twice before u embrace every single "upgrading" projects - some are complete waste of money and only increase conservancy charges.
MBT has already relaxed the rule on this to allow HDB dwellers to make some pocket $. Otherwise, the result at Tampines could have been worst.
Only Singaporeans can be landlord. Welcome all FT in and they work for us, we collect rent shake legs at home haa haa... :rolleyes:
devilplate
09-05-11, 12:13
MBT has already relaxed the rule on this to allow HDB dwellers to make some pocket $. Otherwise, the result at Tampines could have been worst.
more can be done....
listen to people! ban PR from buying resale flat! convert den buy lor....hahaha
we only want real talents(RT) to come to SG and not FAKE TALENTS(FT)
those Faked talents come over here to fight for 2-4k jobs shd be clamped:D
only allow 5k++ foreigner to come over....push up pte condo!! HUAT ARGH!
RT with higher rental budget too! Huat Ah!
more can be done....
listen to people! ban PR from buying resale flat! convert den buy lor....hahaha
we only want real talents(RT) to come to SG and not FAKE TALENTS(FT)
those Faked talents come over here to fight for 2-4k jobs shd be clamped:D
only allow 5k++ foreigner to come over....push up pte condo!! HUAT ARGH!
Quoted by teddybear :
"Above implications means low-level foreigners should be kept out as they compete for jobs directly with the lower and middle-classes Singapore citizens.
High-level foreigners will still be welcomed to come here to live, stay, spend money here, buy properties, set up businesses, create jobs for Singapore citizens, all for the benefits of the economy of Singapore."
Not only they compete for jobs, they also snatch people's husband, so S'pore should only welcome true talent and high-level foreigners. Don't know what is their actual motive, a 23 yrs old girl willing to go with a 46 yrs old married man, thus causing people's family to breakoff, the most pitiful is their children. I think the girl might want to make use of the man to get the PR and then after getting it, kick him out. So stupid!!!! :banghead:
This is golden rule in Econ theory & will always be followed (except communist countries). Almost all countries practice it.
Not so fast yet... PAP is still in full control... The principle of gradual asset appreciation is not wrong. The current problem is just misguided policies, which can be adjusted. Just a few more loud voices in parliament are not going to influence policy makers.
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