View Full Version : Citi sails against the wind, says housing glut unlikely
Citi sails against the wind, says housing glut unlikely
It says scenario is not likely to happen in 2013/14, citing 'severe shortage'
By UMA SHANKARI
(SINGAPORE) Citigroup believes that the expected surge in the supply of new HDB flats and private homes over the next few years will not lead to a housing glut in 2013 and 2014 - a view that is contrary to that held by most other analysts.
A different view: Citi says that the current 'undersupply situation will likely take several years to clear, just like the oversupply situation in the early 2000s' The bank's property analysts also said in a new report that the current 'severe shortage' of HDB flats is likely to provide support for mass-market prices and demand.
This is again different from most analysts' predictions that a step-up in HDB supply will dampen demand for mass-market private homes and hit prices in the segment.
'We believe the prolonged period of under-building in the 2000s has resulted in the current severe housing shortage,' wrote Citi's property analysts, led by Wendy Koh, in their June 26 report.
'We estimate that the deficit in housing units is in excess of 50,000 currently and this undersupply situation will likely take several years to clear, just like the oversupply situation in the early 2000s.'
'With a severe shortage, we are not overly concerned about the rise in supply in both HDB and private residential units . . . A housing glut in 2013/14 is an unlikely scenario, based on our estimates.'
Citi's estimates show that the upcoming HDB supply and the potential increase in the income ceiling for new HDB flats will reduce HDB resale transactions by 7-15 per cent at most. The impact on the private property market would be even smaller, Citi reckons.
Ms Koh also said that the undersupply situation in the HDB market will support demand for and prices of suburban mass-market homes.
'Occupancy rate for mass-market properties are at an all-time high of 97.5 per cent. With yields averaging at around 4.2 per cent versus mortgage rates of just between 1.2-1.6 per cent, investment demand for small units and mass-market units could remain strong,' Ms Koh said.
However, the report cautioned that any further price increase or spike in volume in the mass-market segment risks more property measures as the government is monitoring the market closely.
Citi's views are a departure from the prevailing industry consensus that a housing glut is likely. CIMB analyst Donald Chua, for example, said that 'looming oversupply' from both the private and HDB markets is a big worry for the sector.
'We believe an oversupply situation is looming, going by rising private and HDB physical completions and expectations of a less liberal immigration policy,' Mr Chua said in a note last week.
'Population growth, if it normalises to 65,000- 80,000 per year (from around 162,000 annually in 2006-2011), implies a mere 20,300 units of incremental demand, based on 3.5 persons per household. This would not be sufficient to absorb net supply (HDB and private) of 33,300 units per year, on our estimates.'
Morgan Stanley also recently said that it continues to see a risk of oversupply in terms of physical completion and units available for sale, and expects residential prices to fall by about 7 per cent over the next two years.
Citi's analysts were more negative on the outlook for high-end and luxury
homes as well as the office market.
Demand for high-end homes is likely to remain lacklustre given the uncertain global economic outlook and the strong rental competition among newly completed units, Citi said.
'We believe rental for the high-end segment has probably peaked and downside risks outweigh upside risk in the coming 6-12 months,' said Ms Koh.
'The current rental yields averaging at 2.4 per cent provides very little room for further yield compression.'
However, as long as interest rates remain at current low levels, prices are likely to hold, she added.
And in the office market, Citi's report said that competition for tenants is likely to intensify as around one million square feet of new space that will be completed this year is still uncommitted.
'Leasing activities have slowed and major financial institutions appear to have satisfied their space needs,' Citi said. 'Rental rates are likely to flatten out, and capital values are likely to have peaked.'
devilplate
28-06-11, 10:21
this citi analyst is a OCR supporter! hehe
teddy will not like it and most likely will not even want to read it:p
stalingrad
28-06-11, 10:32
this citi analyst is a OCR supporter! hehe
teddy will not like it and most likely will not even want to read it:p
teddy is known to be an ostrich hiding his little head in the sand, even with flood water up to his ass (since his head is in the sand) in his orchard home.
Wild Falcon
28-06-11, 10:55
I won't call him a OCR supporter lah. More like a investor looking at yields and future cash flows. The current yields for large units in CCR is really pathetic (2%?) and any increase in capital values will only lower the yields further to 1%+. In short, unless SUDDENLY the tenants want to pay a huge rental premium to live in the city (which is not happening), it is unlikely capital values can go up any further. So if OCR yields are currently at 4%, if capital value falls, it will increase to 5% and lots of investors will enter the market again, driving up capital values and hit an equilibrium yield of say 3%. In this forum, u realise a lot of people do not look at yields and many are still looking for primary residence. From an investor's standpoint, the only concern is future cash flows, wherever that is.
But I must say, the future supply is quite scary...
this citi analyst is a OCR supporter! hehe
teddy will not like it and most likely will not even want to read it:p
So if OCR yields are currently at 4%, if capital value falls, it will increase to 5% and lots of investors will enter the market again, driving up capital values and hit an equilibrium yield of say 3%.
what scenario will cause capital values to fall and rental remains the same and hence yield goes up to 5%?
Need to differentiate HDB and condo supplies. HDB will enjoy good demand due to subsidies and lower price. Condo supply is already a lot and many are still in the pipeline from GLS, but demand will suffer once the salary ceiling for HDB/DBSS/EC is lifted.
devilplate
28-06-11, 11:16
what scenario will cause capital values to fall and rental remains the same and hence yield goes up to 5%?
bad market sentiment(short period of time) while unemployment remains the same
devilplate
28-06-11, 11:17
Need to differentiate HDB and condo supplies. HDB will enjoy good demand due to subsidies and lower price. Condo supply is already a lot and many are still in the pipeline from GLS, but demand will suffer once the salary ceiling for HDB/DBSS/EC is lifted.
demand will suffer? results in px correction in ocr condo?
dun b so sure....i expect ocr pte condo px to rise when income ceiling for Dbss/EC is raised
unless KBW up HDB ceiling to 10k while DBSS/EC remains at 10k too.....den it will be very interesting...
immediate response will be HDB BTO super oversubscribed and more complaints!
devilplate
28-06-11, 11:22
HDB BTO income shd b raised to 10k but priority shd be given to those applicants below 8k.....:2cents: :D
and den raised EC to 12k and scrap or stop selling land for DBSS for time being
any comments? hehe:spliff:
demand will suffer? results in px correction in ocr condo?
dun b so sure....i expect ocr pte condo px to rise when income ceiling for Dbss/EC is raised
unless KBW up HDB ceiling to 10k while DBSS/EC remains at 10k too.....den it will be very interesting...
immediate response will be HDB BTO super oversubscribed and more complaints!
If couples with high combined salary can now buy ECs with subsidies, why should they go for overpriced condos? In addition, due to the better price support for ECs, condos prices will go up even higher, pricing even more people out. So overall mass market condo demand will fall in the short term and we will end up seeing more empty condos.
devilplate
28-06-11, 11:29
If couples with high combined salary can now buy ECs with subsidies, why should they go for overpriced condos? In addition, due to the better price support for ECs, condos prices will go up even higher, pricing even more people out. So overall mass market condo demand will fall in the short term and we will end up seeing more empty condos.
nvm la....we shall see la
i can also argue....Y BTO so so cheap and yet ppl choose to pay high COV for resale flats?
location and MOP does a big part my fren.......once EC is bot, for next 8yrs cannot invest in another pte ppty!!!! and ppl wants near MRT but new EC all in ulu locations!
btw, how many singaporeans 1st timer r buying pte condo NOW? not many can afford....those buying now is HDB upgradders or investors!
bad market sentiment(short period of time) while unemployment remains the same
Did such a thing happened in Singapore history before?
devilplate
28-06-11, 11:44
Did such a thing happened in Singapore history before?
right now, super low int rate+super high inflation rate+super high GDP for SG...ever happen in SG b4?:p
btw, how many singaporeans 1st timer r buying pte condo NOW? not many can afford....those buying now is HDB upgradders or investors!
Many SG graduates semi-rich now leh or got strong family backing. However, I also personally know of a few Gen Y pple with household income < $10k, who are 1st timers buying OCRs.
Actually that's a key reason why OCRs have been going up. The CCRs are out of reach, & hence to fulfill their condo dreams, many upgraders or Gen Y are turning to the OCR new launches or resale.
devilplate
28-06-11, 11:45
Many SG graduates semi-rich now leh or got strong family backing. However, I also personally know of a few Gen Y pple with household income < $10k, who are 1st timers buying OCRs.
Actually that's a key reason why OCRs have been going up. The CCRs are out of reach, & hence to fulfill their condo dreams, many upgraders or Gen Y are turning to the OCR new launches or resale.
wow...which means OCR still affordable !!! price still got room to rise!
rattydrama
28-06-11, 11:48
HDB BTO income shd b raised to 10k but priority shd be given to those applicants below 8k.....:2cents: :D
and den raised EC to 12k and scrap or stop selling land for DBSS for time being
any comments? hehe:spliff:
should give priorty to below 6K...BTO standard is the basic housing. some family may not have duo income.
When income ceiling rises, private condo demands will fall... coz those who were previously forced to buy PC will not turn to ECs and DBSS (maybe no takers for this group... :D). Then prices of OCR will automatically correct to accommodate this change in income ceiling allowance (aka new policy).
devilplate
28-06-11, 11:55
Agreed that when income ceiling rises, private condo demands will fall... coz those who were previously forced to buy PC will not turn to ECs and DBSS (maybe no takers for this group... :D)
let us rewind back....dun tok abt income ceiling now.....
when EC was introduced last time, did it cause a drop in demand for OCR condos? even if there is a drop in demand....did OCR condo price drop due to cheaper alternative ECs?
how to measure/quantify demand? by looking at sales volume rite? did EC ever cause a drop in sales volume for ocr condos?
right now, super low int rate+super high inflation rate+super high GDP for SG...ever happen in SG b4?:p
dont think so. also never have bank loan approved before without looking at income statement, FD statements. loose credit hur...
So now we live in interesting times. frankly i am going to liquidate all before SHTF (except for trillium.)
let us rewind back....dun tok abt income ceiling now.....
when EC was introduced last time, did it cause a drop in demand for OCR condos? even if there is a drop in demand....did OCR condo price drop due to cheaper alternative ECs?
how to measure/quantify demand? by looking at sales volume rite? did EC ever cause a drop in sales volume for ocr condos?The fun part is you'll never know! Drop or rise from previous quarters may be documented and recorded but drop or rise from potential numbers will always be a mystery. If no EC, maybe the demand might be much much stronger! :D But I do agree that prices are pretty stubborn and can potentially be independent of volume and demands. :o:o It really can swing either way... anybody's guess!
Eldenfirefly
28-06-11, 12:40
I think Citigroup may be right. As long as Singapore economy doesn't stumble, hard for prices to come down much. The funny thing also is that sometimes, the more you try and implemen measures to cool down a market, the more people want to jump in because it is now more expensive (hence more exclusive).
Its like those branded bags. The more they limit the supply, the higher they rise pices, the more women want to buy them.
Cars also. The higher the CEO price goes, the more people want to buy BMW, Mercedes, Audis...
Analysts at Credit Suisse also said in earlyJune that the multiple factors at play in the economy, govt policies and housing market combined should lead to a more balanced demand and supply situation over the next three to five years and result in more moderate price appreciation in the residential sector. The bank also did a sensitivity analysis, which showed that the expected completions of an average of 14,500 private homes a year from 2011 to 2014 could be absorbed by the market – provided immigration growth remains at or above 70,000 a year (below the 150,000 average from 2005 to 2009), with a household size of five persons.
Allthepies
28-06-11, 13:13
my view is very simple, if EC income ceiling raise to 12K, this signals to the developers that they can start raising their new EC selling price => mass market price will have to go up with EC supporting them :D
already sim lian case has shown that once government raise income ceiling to 10k, government is indirectly granting approval to developer to raise price :D
so Mr K is doing a good job to enrich existing owners.. hurray to Mr K :spliff:
my view is very simple, if EC income ceiling raise to 12K, this signals to the developers that they can start raising their new EC selling price => mass market price will have to go up with EC supporting them :D
already sim lian case has shown that once government raise income ceiling to 10k, government is indirectly granting approval to developer to raise price :D
so Mr K is doing a good job to enrich existing owners.. hurray to Mr K :spliff:Owners huat ah! But only if you sell! :o
I think Citigroup may be right. As long as Singapore economy doesn't stumble, hard for prices to come down much. The funny thing also is that sometimes, the more you try and implemen measures to cool down a market, the more people want to jump in because it is now more expensive (hence more exclusive).
I think a key unknown now is also the immigration policy. Will the inflow be around 60k to 70k yearly as estimated, or will we see further tightening? It's pretty hard to gauge what our dear Govt will do now.......
Ahhh... finally an analyst talking sense.....
Underbuilding is a fact that alot of people refuse to agree..... how many people are living in HDB in their favoured heartland looking forward to upgrade?
I can tell you.... IT"S REALLY ALOT OF THEM.
When they shift out to these heartland OCR condos, they will rent out their HDB or sell to foreigners or naysayers who expect property prices to dip.
However, the combined factors are driving up prices, i.e. low interest rates, enbloc buyers, HDB upgraders, SG being re-rated.
We are at the start of the Singapore bubble, better jump in early and jump out before the bubble bursts which i believe is still quite a distant time away.
I agree with Devilplate that if income ceiling raised to S$12k for EC/DBSS.... this will drive prices to even higher levels.
Gen Y complain HDB BTO prices high and not enough, government very smart..... "Ok, I give you what you want" but the real truth and consequence is their eventual private condo dream will get even further with escalating prices in the private sector.
Our government is very fair and subscribe to "give and take" policy. E.g. GST credits with GST hikes.
"SUBSIDIES COME WITH A PRICE".
Becareful of what we wish for, this is especially so for Gen Y with their reckless complains.
I think a key unknown now is also the immigration policy. Will the inflow be around 60k to 70k yearly as estimated, or will we see further tightening? It's pretty hard to gauge what our dear Govt will do now.......
By then, Market weak and Gen Y vested in their properties already.....
Government will step in....."Don't worry, the FT tap will open to support the economy!"
linchong84
28-06-11, 16:05
When they shift out to these heartland OCR condos, they will rent out their HDB or sell to foreigners or naysayers who expect property prices to dip.
I agree with Devilplate that if income ceiling raised to S$12k for EC/DBSS.... this will drive prices to even higher levels.
I think this is the trend that we are seeing nowadays.. A lot of people are aiming to rent out HDB, and buy a pte condo to stay in so that the HDB rental can cover the condo loan payments.. Problem is will there be enough rental demand to sustain this trend.. If this trend continues, flooding lots of rental supply into the market, rental yield might drop..
Regarding the income ceiling, if the govt is smart, they won't raise the income ceiling to 12k for EC.. Right now, everything is working fine as long as HDB continues to work hard in pushing out more BTOs, DBSS and ECs to satisfy the demand backlog.. In any case, KBW did not say that he will raise BTO ceiling to 10k.. It could be BTO to 9k and DBSS,EC remains the same at 10k..
devilplate
28-06-11, 16:20
I think this is the trend that we are seeing nowadays.. A lot of people are aiming to rent out HDB, and buy a pte condo to stay in so that the HDB rental can cover the condo loan payments.. Problem is will there be enough rental demand to sustain this trend.. If this trend continues, flooding lots of rental supply into the market, rental yield might drop..
Regarding the income ceiling, if the govt is smart, they won't raise the income ceiling to 12k for EC.. Right now, everything is working fine as long as HDB continues to work hard in pushing out more BTOs, DBSS and ECs to satisfy the demand backlog.. In any case, KBW did not say that he will raise BTO ceiling to 10k.. It could be BTO to 9k and DBSS,EC remains the same at 10k..
Too little supply of hdb whole unit rental now.....Can u imagine paying 2k for a CMI 2.4m ceiling ht corridor facing 30-40yo hdb flat of 60sqm?
Too little supply of hdb whole unit rental now.....Can u imagine paying 2k for a CMI 2.4m ceiling ht corridor facing 30-40yo hdb flat of 60sqm?
Do you know where to find the data for this supply of hole hdb unit? Oh cld you also advise what is cannot-make-it 2.4m ceiling ht corridor ... do you mean some pte that face hdb?
linchong84
28-06-11, 16:50
Too little supply of hdb whole unit rental now.....Can u imagine paying 2k for a CMI 2.4m ceiling ht corridor facing 30-40yo hdb flat of 60sqm?
Some have limited budget for housing due to stronger sgd.. And some just want a roof to sleep and choose to spend money on wine and girls instead.. Honestly, if i work overseas for 2 years, i just need convenience.. Swimming pool/tennis court aren't really impt to me..
Now there's still little supply of whole hdb, but come 13/14, when OCR huge supplies hit the shores, will the large number of upgraders choose to hold onto their precious HDB and rent them out.. Rental supply might become excessive.. And these are cheap rentals cos they are hdb..
I thought that under the new rules, you must sell your HDB within 6 months of purchasing private pty?
And if you own private pty, you have to dispose of it before buying HDB.
That's why there's limited supply.
The CM had made the cash cow fatter :hungry:
I suppose when the MM supply comes online, some of those ppl who would rent HDB would rent MM instead.
I thought that under the new rules, you must sell your HDB within 6 months of purchasing private pty?
And if you own private pty, you have to dispose of it before buying HDB.
Think only the latter apply i.e. should be only if you already owned a pte. :2cents: For those whose first property is hdb, they r allowed to keep ..
devilplate
28-06-11, 17:09
Do you know where to find the data for this supply of hole hdb unit? Oh cld you also advise what is cannot-make-it 2.4m ceiling ht corridor ... do you mean some pte that face hdb?
I m refering to those old old 3rm HDB flat
Www.hdb.gov.sg
Ahhh... finally an analyst talking sense.....
Underbuilding is a fact that alot of people refuse to agree..... how many people are living in HDB in their favoured heartland looking forward to upgrade?
I can tell you.... IT"S REALLY ALOT OF THEM.
\.
I know PLENTY of them. I am ONE of them too heheh. But all of us not in a hurry, so waiting for price to drop. We don't believe it won't drop.
devilplate
28-06-11, 18:01
I know PLENTY of them. I am ONE of them too heheh. But all of us not in a hurry, so waiting for price to drop. We don't believe it won't drop.
Cfm drop one day....
Crucial part of the equation for u guys who r waiting at the sideline, let say u sold cloverbythepark high flr park facing at 1200psf today, can u get back at 1kpsf during nxt downturn?:rolleyes:
It all depends how high can cbtp hit...let say 1500psf...den u may only buy back at 1200psf which make u a loser...govt wins on buyer stamp duty n agt earn comm! Hehe:p
For u guys who dun own any pte ppty now and curremtly staying in ur hdb...den no harm waiting lor....but headache whr to park ur money aso la....make sure dun get burn n become long term investors of a certain abc coy la:p
Cfm drop one day....
Crucial part of the equation for u guys who r waiting at the sideline, let say u sold cloverbythepark high flr park facing at 1200psf today, can u get back at 1kpsf during nxt downturn?:rolleyes:
It all depends how high can cbtp hit...let say 1500psf...den u may only buy back at 1200psf which make u a loser...govt wins on buyer stamp duty n agt earn comm! Hehe:p
For u guys who dun own any pte ppty now and curremtly staying in ur hdb...den no harm waiting lor....but headache whr to park ur money aso la....make sure dun get burn n become long term investors of a certain abc coy la:p
M not talking about resale, all of us waiting for new launches when price drop. Of course won't touch resale la, sure lose.
M not talking about resale, all of us waiting for new launches when price drop. Of course won't touch resale la, sure lose.
Interesting theory :p
linchong84
28-06-11, 18:15
M not talking about resale, all of us waiting for new launches when price drop. Of course won't touch resale la, sure lose.
When prices drop a lot, there will be very few new launches.. Resale is definitely sure win rather than sure lose cos u might be able to find firesales in the resale market.. but in the new launch market, strong developers will just landbank and hold till good times are back before they launch.. hard to sure win.. even if u managed to buy, gotta squeeze with devilplate to see whose cheque get balloted for choice units.. not easy...
When prices drop a lot, there will be very few new launches.. Resale is definitely sure win rather than sure lose cos u might be able to find firesales in the resale market.. but in the new launch market, strong developers will just landbank and hold till good times are back before they launch.. hard to sure win.. even if u managed to buy, gotta squeeze with devilplate to see whose cheque get balloted for choice units.. not easy...
I thought devilplate is so bullish he's already has all his money in property..
where get cheque when downtime comes?
linchong84
28-06-11, 18:23
I thought devilplate is so bullish he's already has all his money in property..
where get cheque when downtime comes?
If things remain constant, in mid-end 2012, i guess he will be busy divesting at least 50% of his holdings to take profit and gek power..
But if FT tap continue to gush out forcefully, then no need to divest liao.. It will be good news for everyone except people waiting on the sidelines..
When prices drop a lot, there will be very few new launches.. Resale is definitely sure win rather than sure lose cos u might be able to find firesales in the resale market.. but in the new launch market, strong developers will just landbank and hold till good times are back before they launch.. hard to sure win.. even if u managed to buy, gotta squeeze with devilplate to see whose cheque get balloted for choice units.. not easy...
Tot developers have to launch within a period after they bought the land? So many devp bought lands recent years so they might be forced to launch soon or even during bad times. No??
kingkong1984
28-06-11, 18:28
Tot developers have to launch within a period after they bought the land? So many devp bought lands recent years so they might be forced to launch soon or even during bad times. No??
nope, they just have to make sure they are built within the time frame allowed.
they eat their own units also can lah.
linchong84
28-06-11, 18:29
Tot developers have to launch within a period after they bought the land? So many devp bought lands recent years so they might be forced to launch soon or even during bad times. No??
Just look at CDL's pasir ris plots.. 4-5 years already still got 2-3 plots beside livia not launched yet.. During bad times there won't be much new launches one.. Developers are not stupid, they will just hold out.. Unless those that kena the quake midway thru launch, then suck thumb, gotta give discounts, air tickets, lucky draw prizes haha..
M not talking about resale, all of us waiting for new launches when price drop. Of course won't touch resale la, sure lose.
I thought new launches are overpriced, compared to resale.:confused:
Need to look hard for the hidden gems... like treasure hunt, how to be patient too....
I'm just the opposite... won't touch new launch... not now anyway.:(
nope, they just have to make sure they are built within the time frame allowed.
they eat their own units also can lah.
Just look at FEO's website. they have units completed years ago in their inventory.:)
nope, they just have to make sure they are built within the time frame allowed.
they eat their own units also can lah.
If watch FEO they are already busy cleaning there earlier eaten units.. getting ready for fresh meal :D
devilplate
28-06-11, 18:38
During downturn, find those subsale best best!
When market jus started to pick up, buy new projects.
During mid cycle buy resale.... End cycle gd luck hehe
I thought new launches are overpriced, compared to resale.:confused:
Need to look hard for the hidden gems... like treasure hunt, how to be patient too....
I'm just the opposite... won't touch new launch... not now anyway.:(
I think it is the mentality. Or I rather be the first owner and earn the most rather than letting the first owner earn then I got nothing left to earn anymore...Also the feeling of buying at the lowest price at new launch from developer. Firesales whereby owner willing to lose money not easy to wait. I also won't touch new launch now.
nope, they just have to make sure they are built within the time frame allowed.
they eat their own units also can lah.
So you mean develpers can buy land now, launch 10 yrs later?? No timeframe????
devilplate
28-06-11, 18:42
I think it is the mentality. Or I rather be the first owner and earn the most rather than letting the first owner earn then I got nothing left to earn anymore...Also the feeling of buying at the lowest price at new launch from developer. Firesales whereby owner willing to lose money not easy to wait. I also won't touch new launch now.
Tats one typical buyer who prefer to buy new launches.... Can aso la, like caspian ;)
devilplate
28-06-11, 18:45
So you mean develpers can buy land now, launch 10 yrs later?? No timeframe????
It wasnt vy clear on this.... I tink nid to complete within a timeframe n will kena levy if units remain unsold for certain timeframe after top.... Tat applies to gls land n foreigh developers n feo is excluded
Just look at CDL's pasir ris plots.. 4-5 years already still got 2-3 plots beside livia not launched yet.. During bad times there won't be much new launches one.. Developers are not stupid, they will just hold out.. Unless those that kena the quake midway thru launch, then suck thumb, gotta give discounts, air tickets, lucky draw prizes haha..
Was easy for them cause interest rate so low.. pain for them too if interest rate becomes high..
If watch propety stock they are already hammered hard..not good if hold too long..99LH remember..
StockHolder not happy if hold for too long..they are in development, not rental business, there are REITS for that..
Fast money for them..if can keep clearning stock and keep developing new ones.. no fun eating own units..
devilplate
28-06-11, 18:48
Was easy for them cause interest rate so low.. pain for them too if interest rate becomes high..
If watch propety stock they are already hammered hard..not good if hold too long..99LH remember..
StockHolder not happy if hold for too long..they are in development, not rental business, there are REITS for that..
Fast money for them..if can keep clearning stock and keep developing new ones.. no fun eating own units..
U duno the history of tat big plot of land so better dun assume too much.... Its not bot via gls.... They own tat land for many donkey yrs.... They jus nid to pay to top up the lease bck to 99 before they launch
It wasnt vy clear on this.... I tink nid to complete within a timeframe n will kena levy if units remain unsold for certain timeframe after top.... Tat applies to gls land n foreigh developers n feo is excluded
yah... for non-gls.... developers can take as long as they want to complete the project.
For foreign developers, they can't own land, so as long they strata title the completed units, sell a few units (not sure about %) and hold the rest for as long as they want.
yah... for non-gls.... developers can take as long as they want to complete the project.
For foreign developers, they can own land, so as long they strata title the completed units, sell a few units (not sure about %) and hold the rest for as long as they want.
hmmm so tat translate to only gls project will sell during downturn.. Any freehold gls? No right? possible to have freehold new launches during downturn?
I think a key unknown now is also the immigration policy. Will the inflow be around 60k to 70k yearly as estimated, or will we see further tightening? It's pretty hard to gauge what our dear Govt will do now.......
NO, ITS VERY CLEAR. Our Govt already spell it in your face already. magic no 6.5m. And we gave them the mandate. The news is in your face everyday. Just Visit URA center and you will x2 confirm the answer you want.
Those crying price crash are clearly pple whom missed the boat and unable to board the boat already. Other than shouting there's nothing else they can do , except threaten to vote for opposition or migrate. This is clear demonstrated by a GEn Y recently.
REport shows that 2nd Qtr price went up more than first qtr after cooling measure 4. Doesnt market know there are huge supply coming in 2 years time yet price is climbing? The price now factors in the supply news already, y issit still climbing then?
This only indicate 1 thing. THE CLEVER ONES blow big big news to tell u price going to crash while they pick up the gems. Most of the BROS here are holding multiple properties and letting go 1-2 to take some profit off the table but most are still vested. Also i observed Developers continue to launch at incredible price points.
...Unless those that kena the quake midway thru launch, then suck thumb, gotta give discounts, air tickets, lucky draw prizes haha..
For big players they can always sell to themselves. Setup a fund and buy all of them. Dun even need to lodge caveat ! A simple transfer of balance sheet.
kingkong1984
28-06-11, 23:45
For big players they can always sell to themselves. Setup a fund and buy all of them. Dun even need to lodge caveat ! A simple transfer of balance sheet.
That's in the past. Now with SSD... not likely.
There is genuine demand and people are buying a certain lifestyle. That's why units are snapped up. Whether it's sea view, park view, forest view, reservoir view, golf course view, MRT convenience, people are going after a preferred lifestyle that will enrich their lives and hopefully their pockets.
NO, ITS VERY CLEAR. Our Govt already spell it in your face already. magic no 6.5m. And we gave them the mandate. The news is in your face everyday. Just Visit URA center and you will x2 confirm the answer you want.
I dont think the 6.5m will come so fast, probably only when the various MRT projects are completed. Actually LKY in Hard Truths said he personally preferred 5.5m, but he's not the one making the call now......
After GE, I am sure the govt is thinking hard about this. So for the time being till 2016, I think the max is 5.5m. That should still support the property prices unless a major crisis strikes. My 2 cents worth, but imho, its a v likely 2 cents.......haha
I dont think the 6.5m will come so fast, probably only when the various MRT projects are completed. Actually LKY in Hard Truths said he personally preferred 5.5m, but he's not the one making the call now......
After GE, I am sure the govt is thinking hard about this. So for the time being till 2016, I think the max is 5.5m. That should still support the property prices unless a major crisis strikes. My 2 cents worth, but imho, its a v likely 2 cents.......haha
6.5 is definately a long term goal. If it's 5.5 in 6 years then nothing have changed, thats 100k per year. In this likely case iyho, then property sure chong Liao crazy for next 5 years. We are talking about 25k housing a year need x5 , that's 125k est needed. Huat till crazy wor.
I m thinking more along 40-50k annual population growth...... Till infrastructure are enhanced then perhaps more. BTW I LIKE YOUR 2 CENTS.
Wild Falcon
29-06-11, 10:03
FEO is different is because its 100% locally held. The new rules only apply to developers with foreign shareholders including all the listed co. The foreign developer has to complete residential developments within 5 years and to sell ALL units within 2 years of TOP. In short, cannot wait and hog land indefinitely.
http://www.asiaone.com/News/The%2BBusiness%2BTimes/Story/A1Story20101019-243149.html
Just look at FEO's website. they have units completed years ago in their inventory.:)
6.5 is definately a long term goal. If it's 5.5 in 6 years then nothing have changed, thats 100k per year. In this likely case iyho, then property sure chong Liao crazy for next 5 years. We are talking about 25k housing a year need x5 , that's 125k est needed. Huat till crazy wor.
I m thinking more along 40-50k annual population growth...... Till infrastructure are enhanced then perhaps more. BTW I LIKE YOUR 2 CENTS.
Actually my max 5.5m is overstating it already. I personally think the population will stagnate at around 5m to 5.1m. Between now & GE 2016, I think only DTL will be completed. Given the widespread complaints on overcrowding, dun think the DTL can alleviate that much. Already heard stories about Malaysian students in local uni not offered PRs liao. When has that happened before?
Not to mention that SG citizens population is shrinking, so 40k to 50k annual population growth will mean even more foreigners. The key for Govt is to convert more to citizens lah. Then the figures look better come GE time. I think the immigration tap is the key unknown to next 3 years property trend...
Actually my max 5.5m is overstating it already. I personally think the population will stagnate at around 5m to 5.1m. Between now & GE 2016, I think only DTL will be completed. Given the widespread complaints on overcrowding, dun think the DTL can alleviate that much. Already heard stories about Malaysian students in local uni not offered PRs liao. When has that happened before?
Not to mention that SG citizens population is shrinking, so 40k to 50k annual population growth will mean even more foreigners. The key for Govt is to convert more to citizens lah. Then the figures look better come GE time. I think the immigration tap is the key unknown to next 3 years property trend...
Yes people not getting easy PR anymore.. think cause SG people complain too much in last election..
I know a person waiting to buy, but cannot cause not PR and dont want to buy till PR, cause will have to in few weeks time if job gone....
No joke, u indeed know that area well.
U duno the history of tat big plot of land so better dun assume too much.... Its not bot via gls.... They own tat land for many donkey yrs.... They jus nid to pay to top up the lease bck to 99 before they launch
If economy continues to grow the gahmen have no choice but to grow the population... I think half the rate of increase ofnthe past fewnyears already quite a lot.... So expected at least 60k a year.... Anyway the issue here is not so much the ft tap in the next few years, the citi article stated hat in the last ten years when population went up 1m, what was the number of units built? I think it's average 6k per year for private and 3k for hdb... Does anyone has the data for the last ten years? Or last five years will do....
If that is the case then forummers whom have many properties don need to worry, no glut... The next three years is just to meet the actual demands in the last five to ten years.... And those who have not buy yet better buy now...
I really curious to findout the data man.. Anyone knows? Good for all of us
I don't see thousand of people setting up tents to sleep at the beach because there are not enough houses in the past few years. Many probably rented or stay with parents, and are switching to buying for own stay. The surge in HDB and condos units should address this issue. Then what will happen to those units they previously rented? They will add to the pool of new rental units.
Currently we don't have the exact figures on the number of would be buyers who are renting still. My belief is they are merely a minority, insignificant in absolute numbers. Most are probably staying with parents. However, there are probably a larger group of HDB upgraders who have sold their HDB and are currently renting from HDB flats in a hope that housing prices will fall. These group of people would probably form a larger number. :D
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