View Full Version : Resale prices of private homes continue to rise
Resale prices of private homes continue to rise (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1137625/1/.html)
By Mustafa Shafawi | Posted: 28 June 2011 1417 hrs
SINGAPORE: Resale prices of private homes continue to rise in the second quarter of this year.
According to DTZ Research, resale prices of private residential properties increased at a faster rate across all segments in the second quarter of this year compared to the first.
It says the average resale price of leasehold condominiums in the suburban areas rose the fastest by 3.9 per cent on-quarter, compared to 0.8 per cent in the first quarter.
The average resale price of freehold condominiums in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 grew by 3.3 per cent on-quarter compared to 0.4% per cent in the first quarter, based on a basket of completed condominiums tracked by DTZ Research.
The average resale price of luxury condominiums rose the least at 1.7 per cent.
But DTZ Research said it reflected an increase over the flat prices registered in the first quarter.
This it said is the only segment with prices still below the 2007 peak.
Ms Chua Chor Hoon, Head of DTZ South East Asia Research, said prices continue to trend upwards because sellers are benchmarking against the prices of new launches.
- CNA/fa
bargain hunter
28-06-11, 16:33
the way its written, it sounds a bit alarming leh. like MBT's CM4 cooled off for Q1 then after that bochap liao. maciam begging for CM5 like that. :scared-4:
Resale prices of private homes continue to rise (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1137625/1/.html)
By Mustafa Shafawi | Posted: 28 June 2011 1417 hrs
SINGAPORE: Resale prices of private homes continue to rise in the second quarter of this year.
According to DTZ Research, resale prices of private residential properties increased at a faster rate across all segments in the second quarter of this year compared to the first.
It says the average resale price of leasehold condominiums in the suburban areas rose the fastest by 3.9 per cent on-quarter, compared to 0.8 per cent in the first quarter.
The average resale price of freehold condominiums in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 grew by 3.3 per cent on-quarter compared to 0.4% per cent in the first quarter, based on a basket of completed condominiums tracked by DTZ Research.
The average resale price of luxury condominiums rose the least at 1.7 per cent.
But DTZ Research said it reflected an increase over the flat prices registered in the first quarter.
This it said is the only segment with prices still below the 2007 peak.
Ms Chua Chor Hoon, Head of DTZ South East Asia Research, said prices continue to trend upwards because sellers are benchmarking against the prices of new launches.
- CNA/fa
the way its written, it sounds a bit alarming leh. like MBT's CM4 cooled off for Q1 then after that bochap liao. maciam begging for CM5 like that. :scared-4:
Q2 HDB COV up, and now this. KBW is going to be busy.:)
devilplate
28-06-11, 17:06
the way its written, it sounds a bit alarming leh. like MBT's CM4 cooled off for Q1 then after that bochap liao. maciam begging for CM5 like that. :scared-4:
I oredi mentioned tat resale asking px is very similar to new launches recently....
Obviously sellers got holding power now due to low int rates and buyers no choice ?
devilplate
28-06-11, 17:08
Q2 HDB COV up, and now this. KBW is going to be busy.:)
He seems to b enjoying it....perhaps he is a ppty enthus like us? Hehe
linchong84
28-06-11, 17:24
50% LTV coming.. Maybe 20/15/10/5% SSD.. This should do the trick for OCR.. If new launch continue to huat while only resale suffer, then slap new launch with 20/15/10/5/5/5.. this will definitely do it..
devilplate
28-06-11, 17:33
50% LTV coming.. Maybe 20/15/10/5% SSD.. This should do the trick for OCR.. If new launch continue to huat while only resale suffer, then slap new launch with 20/15/10/5/5/5.. this will definitely do it..
No lor...i find tat resale px is closing the gap wif new launches for ocr liao....meaning to say ocr px is stabilising...
I am waiting for some power packed rcr locatiojs to laumch leh....my rcr nvr move leh
50% LTV coming.. Maybe 20/15/10/5% SSD.. This should do the trick for OCR.. If new launch continue to huat while only resale suffer, then slap new launch with 20/15/10/5/5/5.. this will definitely do it..
KBW should come up with more innovative measures other than 50% LTV lah. I had suggested a "Developer stamp duty" in the following order for new launches:
0% - units sold within 1 year
4% - units sold after 1 year
8% - units sold after 2 years
12% - units sold after 3 years
16% - units sold after 4 years
To counter resale COV, slap a 90% capital gains tax on sale of resale flats by PR, unless another HDB unit is bought within 6 mths. This tax would be waived if the PR converts to SG citizen. Win-win for all except screwed PRs.... haha
linchong84
28-06-11, 18:11
KBW should come up with more innovative measures other than 50% LTV lah. I had suggested a "Developer stamp duty" in the following order for new launches:
0% - units sold within 1 year
4% - units sold after 1 year
8% - units sold after 2 years
12% - units sold after 3 years
16% - units sold after 4 years
To counter resale COV, slap a 90% capital gains tax on sale of resale flats by PR, unless another HDB unit is bought within 6 mths. This tax would be waived if the PR converts to SG citizen. Win-win for all except screwed PRs.... haha
most developers launch their projects within 1 year, esp OCR where the prices need some curbing.. Anyway, u slap developer no use because the fact is buyers are continuing to buy at high prices, eg look at foresque and terrasse.. govt should slap buyers to wake them up haha.. but of course nobody hopes for that lah......
There are 2 groups of people
1) The property owners already in the market. This is one happy group of people. Prices still creeping up despite all the measures and everyone trying to talk down the market.
2) The second group for the ones still waiting for the market to "crash" in order to enter the market.
If the 2nd group has been holding back amidst all the noise since the last couple of CMs, they have lost out already. I'm guessing prices has gone up by 20% since CM3? Will the prices "correct" by 20% if it does? It goes back the price before CM3 They still lose:beats-me-man:
My point is... you can't time the market perfectly.... enter when you find a gem and not be overstretched. In the long run, you'll be fine...:2cents:
Wild Falcon
28-06-11, 18:59
Good news for some of us who focus on the resale market :)
There are 2 groups of people
1) The property owners already in the market. This is one happy group of people. Prices still creeping up despite all the measures and everyone trying to talk down the market.
2) The second group for the ones still waiting for the market to "crash" in order to enter the market.
If the 2nd group has been holding back amidst all the noise since the last couple of CMs, they have lost out already. I'm guessing prices has gone up by 20% since CM3? Will the prices "correct" by 20% if it does? It goes back the price before CM3 They still lose:beats-me-man:
My point is... you can't time the market perfectly.... enter when you find a gem and not be overstretched. In the long run, you'll be fine...:2cents:
you have missed out, the 3rd group already cash out 30-40% profits,and got the time to wait for other opportunties, since they alrdy made the monies to grow elsewhere
you have missed out, the 3rd group already cash out 30-40% profits,and got the time to wait for other opportunties, since they alrdy made the monies to grow elsewhere
Cm5 should look at the how developers bid for land. Most individual investors are sidelined by now. Higher SSD are likely to have a very marginal impact on resale prices, because the latest transaction prices are possibly reflective of real demand. I can't imagine many investors willing to punt with 4 years of punitive SSD.
phantom_opera
28-06-11, 20:53
Our PM Lee already made it very obvious in Indonesia:
If US gets its house in order, 'it will help ease inflation in region' ... said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong yesterday
It is a problem for all Asian tigers, China & India ... not just Singapore
There will be CM5, CM6, CM7, CM8 as long as US cannot get their house in order, low interest rate and high inflation rate is here to stay
joycewangwen
28-06-11, 20:58
For the property market, I think HongKong's today is Singapore's tomorrow...
My Hong Kong friend said, Singapore level is still far away from Hong Kong's 50% level.
This is really a crazy world.:doh:
Our PM Lee already made it very obvious in Indonesia:
If US gets its house in order, 'it will help ease inflation in region' ... said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong yesterday
It is a problem for all Asian tigers, China & India ... not just Singapore
There will be CM5, CM6, CM7, CM8 as long as US cannot get their house in order, low interest rate and high inflation rate is here to stay
when US gets their house in order, the more immediate reaction is a rally across all assets. only when things get stale there do we get the bust and cooling.
what does hong kong's 50% level mean?
phantom_opera
28-06-11, 21:05
The problem is that the probability is very low that US can get its house in order in next few years. The expectation of close to zero growth in US in the next few years is again reflected in 10y US bond yield, investors are willing to accept less than 3% interest for 10y bond :doh:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eTNX&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=m200&lang=en-US®ion=US
The problem is that the probability is very low that US can get its house in order in next few years. The expectation of close to zero growth in US in the next few years is again reflected in 10y US bond yield, investors are willing to accept less than 3% interest for 10y bond :doh:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eTNX&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=m200&lang=en-US®ion=US
investors are really desperate for yield. singapore's yield is even worst if i remember correctly, that's why there's some truth in a recent article that people are forced to consider property as an investment due to lack of reasonable yield returns from other asset classes.
phantom_opera
28-06-11, 21:18
investors are really desperate for yield. singapore's yield is even worst if i remember correctly, that's why there's some truth in a recent article that people are forced to consider property as an investment due to lack of reasonable yield returns from other asset classes.
10y SGS yield is ridiculous at 2.29%, if they peg your CPF SA/RA to 10ySGS +1%, you are going to get only 3.29% instead 4% now :eek:
The 5y SGS is laughable at 1.01% ... at least HDB offers 1.68% :doh:
And M3 expanded by 100% since May 2005 ... whereas it is only 20% growth from 2000 to 2005, 50-56% from 1995-2000 as well as 1990-1995
50% LTV coming.. Maybe 20/15/10/5% SSD.. This should do the trick for OCR.. If new launch continue to huat while only resale suffer, then slap new launch with 20/15/10/5/5/5.. this will definitely do it..
aiyah make it more firm.. buying 2nd prop 10 strokes of cane and 1mth jail. for 1s time offender.
10y SGS yield is ridiculous at 2.29%, if they peg your CPF SA/RA to 10ySGS +1%, you are going to get only 3.29% instead 4% now :eek:
The 5y SGS is laughable at 1.01% ... at least HDB offers 1.68% :doh:
And M3 expanded by 100% since May 2005 ... whereas it is only 20% growth from 2000 to 2005, 50-56% from 1995-2000 as well as 1990-1995
at such ridiculous yields and no thanks to minibonds, where else can people park their cash to withstand the attrition of inflation? we encourage people to better manage their own finances, so when it comes to the final selection across asset classes, what choices are they left with?
phantom_opera
28-06-11, 21:38
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)– The U.S. is facing a long period of slow growth and high unemployment unless it can get its fiscal house in order, said noted economist John Taylor in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
The odds of the U.S. falling back into recession in the next 18 months are “low,” but recent stimulus and monetary policy measures such as the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, are not helping.
=> US will become another Japan, near zero growth for years to come. This will be a big big big problem for countries like SG/HK with interest rate pegged to US Fed rate.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)– The U.S. is facing a long period of slow growth and high unemployment unless it can get its fiscal house in order, said noted economist John Taylor in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
The odds of the U.S. falling back into recession in the next 18 months are “low,” but recent stimulus and monetary policy measures such as the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, are not helping.
=> US will become another Japan, near zero growth for years to come. This will be a big big big problem for countries like SG/HK with interest rate pegged to US Fed rate.
that interest rate hike won't be coming as soon as many expected if that's the case.
Non-landed private home prices up 2.5% in May (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1137702/1/.html)
By Jonathan Peeris | Posted: 28 June 2011 2208 hrs
SINGAPORE : Non-landed private home prices in Singapore continued its uptrend in May, rising 2.5 per cent from April.
The National University of Singapore's Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) showed that the month-on-month increase in the overall index in May was sharper than the 1.1 per cent rise the month before.
NUS's price index for properties in the central area jumped 3.5 per cent in May, while non-central properties showed a 1.7 per cent increase. These compared with March's rise of 1.0 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively.
The SRPI is a transactions-based index that tracks the month-on-month price movements of private, non-landed residential properties in Singapore.
Compiled by the NUS Institute of Real Estate Studies, the index covers completed non-landed properties in the central and non-central regions.
- CNA/al
time to bring forward more land sales.
=> US will become another Japan, near zero growth for years to come. This will be a big big big problem for countries like SG/HK with interest rate pegged to US Fed rate.
That's what i've been saying all this while. We are in the era of ultra low interest rate environment, asset inflation is inevitable.
To counter this, central banks in SG/HK can only use admin methods. LTV50% will come in SG sooner or later. What follows will be multiple loan restriction. U cannot control interest rate, u restrict lending directly. SG at least has HDB so it can moderate the market directly. HK cannot. That's why HK now is contemplating reintroduction of public housing scheme, SG style, after 15 yrs.
devilplate
28-06-11, 23:56
time to bring forward more land sales.
Actually the root cause is due to the fact tat developers r allowed to sell off the plans.....tats y sg got nice boom bust ppty cycle:spliff:
devilplate
28-06-11, 23:58
That's what i've been saying all this while. We are in the era of ultra low interest rate environment, asset inflation is inevitable.
To counter this, central banks in SG/HK can only use admin methods. LTV50% will come in SG sooner or later. What follows will be multiple loan restriction. U cannot control interest rate, u restrict lending directly. SG at least has HDB so it can moderate the market directly. HK cannot. That's why HK now is contemplating reintroduction of public housing scheme, SG style, after 15 yrs.
Prohibiting sgd based loan for foreigners vy likely to happen soon:scared-5:
Actually the root cause is due to the fact tat developers r allowed to sell off the plans.....tats y sg got nice boom bust ppty cycle:spliff:
all the small developers can eat grass if they have to sell on completed buildings. if that is the case, the buyers may not be at an advantage as the oligopolistic structure by the bigger size developers with holding power results in less competitive pricing.
Regulators
29-06-11, 00:34
All these writers are probably anti property investment. Knn for nothing create a stir for kbw to come up with more cm. I think all these writers miss all the property boats just like the st journalist gladys :doh:
All these writers are probably anti property investment. Knn for nothing create a stir for kbw to come up with more cm. I think all these writers miss all the property boats just like the st journalist gladys :doh:
Some news are planted, prior to major announcements.
All these writers are probably anti property investment. Knn for nothing create a stir for kbw to come up with more cm. I think all these writers miss all the property boats just like the st journalist gladys :doh:KBW has been pretty quiet on CMs. He is evidently trying to avoid CM. Even the MM units min area, he also say let market decide. Think he don't want to come across as too artificially imposing. CM will probably be his final final draw! :p
Housing prices' upward trend is expected but cannot be too drastic or too big a jump. That's about it. :spliff:
You can roughly gauge the future housing policies based on what happened in health care industry. Did the treatment costs go down? We are talking about life and death issues here.
You can roughly gauge the future housing policies based on what happened in health care industry. Did the treatment costs go down? We are talking about life and death issues here.Cost will only rise, whether health care or housing or any other things coz of inflation. Then again you made your point! It'll be really naive if we think that housing prices will fall under his regime. Highly unlikely unless through external factors. :spliff:
KBW has been pretty quiet on CMs. He is evidently trying to avoid CM.
You know something that we don't? Are you his BFF?:)
proud owner
29-06-11, 10:41
You know something that we don't? Are you his BFF?:)
ahhaha
i didnt know BFF is being used also in singapore
devilplate
29-06-11, 10:51
ahhaha
i didnt know BFF is being used also in singapore
er wat it mean:ashamed1:
bf's fren?
phantom_opera
29-06-11, 11:31
高铁沿线站点城市房价逆势遭爆炒
廊坊、济南、常州、昆山……这些布局在京沪高铁沿线的城市，早已嗅到了高铁开通所带来的“升值效应”，与楼市调控大背景所导致的冷清萧条相反的是，这些二三线城市正在经历着一场由高铁而引发的楼市热潮。
=> Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail results in notable property price hike for cities along that line
er wat it mean:ashamed1:
bf's fren?
Best friends forever.....i think
devilplate
29-06-11, 12:24
Best friends forever.....i think
Both of us r so innocent:ashamed1:
That's what i've been saying all this while. We are in the era of ultra low interest rate environment, asset inflation is inevitable.
To counter this, central banks in SG/HK can only use admin methods. LTV50% will come in SG sooner or later. What follows will be multiple loan restriction. U cannot control interest rate, u restrict lending directly. SG at least has HDB so it can moderate the market directly. HK cannot. That's why HK now is contemplating reintroduction of public housing scheme, SG style, after 15 yrs.
There is a genuine supply / demand imbalance. Many more people want to buy property under the current zero interest rate regime. So even if property prices go up, the yield is still so much higher than interest rates.
Frankly with a million dollars in the bank one will get less than a hundred bucks a month. What options are there besides buying property?
devilplate
29-06-11, 12:38
There is a genuine supply / demand imbalance. Many more people want to buy property under the current zero interest rate regime. So even if property prices go up, the yield is still so much higher than interest rates.
Frankly with a million dollars in the bank one will get less than a hundred bucks a month. What options are there besides buying property?
Tats y lor....i m one of the silly ones tat r holding on to some banana notes....
Stocks dare not touch now....oredi kena burned by hutchi ipo(considered myself lucky when i saw the current px drop to 78cts:scared-1: ), bonds r worse to enter now....wat else? I jus park under mortgage1 lor....help to subsidise those who taking loans lor...:banghead:
bargain hunter
29-06-11, 13:13
u'd never know leh. if 80% of pple are doing the same thing, the 20% holding banana notes may soon not be so silly afterall. :tsk-tsk:
i feel its good to hold some banana notes. everyone seems so overwhelmed by the argument of bank deposit rates so low, must invest in something that i start to become contrarian. :ashamed1:
a savills analyst got the cheek to write in an article in "the edge" that implied that interest rates 1%+, luxury ppty rental 2%+ = very good reason to invest in high end. even if interest rates go up still got buffer he said. LOL. :confused:
Tats y lor....i m one of the silly ones tat r holding on to some banana notes....
Stocks dare not touch now....oredi kena burned by hutchi ipo(considered myself lucky when i saw the current px drop to 78cts:scared-1: ), bonds r worse to enter now....wat else? I jus park under mortgage1 lor....help to subsidise those who taking loans lor...:banghead:
phantom_opera
29-06-11, 13:25
u'd never know leh. if 80% of pple are doing the same thing, the 20% holding banana notes may soon not be so silly afterall. :tsk-tsk:
i feel its good to hold some banana notes. everyone seems so overwhelmed by the argument of bank deposit rates so low, must invest in something that i start to become contrarian. :ashamed1:
a savills analyst got the cheek to write in an article in "the edge" that implied that interest rates 1%+, luxury ppty rental 2%+ = very good reason to invest in high end. even if interest rates go up still got buffer he said. LOL. :confused:
Come on, the opposite is true, private property speculators are probably only 20%, M3 which includes bank deposits has expanded by 100% since 2005, majority is banana notes .. I know someone who paid his 1.5mio property in cash last year :tsk-tsk:
bargain hunter
29-06-11, 13:30
it never hurts to keep some cash for "unforeseen circumstances". :)
Come on, the opposite is true, private property speculators are probably only 20%, M3 which includes bank deposits has expanded by 100% since 2005, majority is banana notes .. I know someone who paid his 1.5mio property in cash last year :tsk-tsk:
Come on, the opposite is true, private property speculators are probably only 20%, M3 which includes bank deposits has expanded by 100% since 2005, majority is banana notes .. I know someone who paid his 1.5mio property in cash last year :tsk-tsk:
with low interest, isnt it make more sense to fund the property with loan and put the cash to better use
proud owner
29-06-11, 13:35
Come on, the opposite is true, private property speculators are probably only 20%, M3 which includes bank deposits has expanded by 100% since 2005, majority is banana notes .. I know someone who paid his 1.5mio property in cash last year :tsk-tsk:
however ..for every 1 such person, there are at least 20 others who find a property of above 1.5 mio hard to afford ...
i also know of MANY friends ...who keep alot of cash (apart from a few properties)
no doubt cash yield little to nothing ... but i am with Property hunter .. should keep some cash too , at least enuff to put as downs(50pct?) for another property
stalingrad
29-06-11, 13:35
it never hurts to keep some cash for "unforeseen circumstances". :)
yes, as ammunition when things begin to blow up in Euro zone or China.:D
cash is valuable as a means to benefit from disasters. It is as good as options. :D
Indeed, it makes sense to keep some of the powder dry. It's risky to be totally submerged and totally out of the water. Hedging with a safety buffer is a more steadfast approach.
it never hurts to keep some cash for "unforeseen circumstances". :)
Care to share how you would personally put the cash to better use?
with low interest, isnt it make more sense to fund the property with loan and put the cash to better use
phantom_opera
29-06-11, 13:54
Of course it is not wise to over-stretch yourself, what I meant was that majority of Singaporeans who can afford to at least invest in better-yielding asset has not done so. Most of them still keep their money in FD or CPF OA .... if you assume inflation rate @ 5% and FD rate at 1%, effective loss annually is -4%, for CPF OA, effective loss is -2.5% ouch :banghead:
And this situation is going to last for a long time simply because US economy will not go into double dip nor would it grow enough to jack up interest rate for next 5y (3y bond yield is 0.74%, 5y bond yield is 1.62%!!! Such is the market expectation of GDP growth in US :scared-4: )
The most scary part is if US suffers same fate as Japan, a prolonged near zero growth ... :scared-5:
Care to share how you would personally put the cash to better use?
It all depends on how much heart you got..
For me I lend my stocks at 4% at CDP to short sellers..
Property stocks are already beaten down.. can buy them if you think property gonna rise...
Thats all you get for free advise :tongue3:
bargain hunter
29-06-11, 14:06
you are right but the data alone may not tell the whole story. there is a large number of super rich who have so much money that they simply leave large $ quantum of cash lying around because they have no need for it whatsoever and do not mind the -2.5% loss. or they want to leave ammo to bid for GCBs but the bid and ask gap is too wide. that's where a lot of the cash is lying in the bank.
at the other end of the spectrum, there are many others who buy $1.25m condos after plonking in all their $500k in savings.
Of course it is not wise to over-stretch yourself, what I meant was that majority of Singaporeans who can afford to at least invest in better-yielding asset has not done so. Most of them still keep their money in FD or CPF OA .... if you assume inflation rate @ 5% and FD rate at 1%, effective loss annually is -4%, for CPF OA, effective loss is -2.5% ouch :banghead:
And this situation is going to last for a long time simply because US economy will not go into double dip nor would it grow enough to jack up interest rate for next 5y (3y bond yield is 0.74%, 5y bond yield is 1.62%!!! Such is the market expectation of GDP growth in US :scared-4: )
The most scary part is if US suffers same fate as Japan, a prolonged near zero growth ... :scared-5:
thomastansb
29-06-11, 14:25
It is not surprising. It is so expected. I have posted so many times since end 2009 that property will continue to chiong regardless of CMs if the economy is strong. It is just history lessons anyway. Just look at our URA chart and you can see only a massive crisis/shock can bring down property prices. If not, it just stay around that level.
The only time where prices drop quite badly is:-
1) 1997 - Asia financial crisis
2) 2008 - US financial meltdown
The others are just minor fluctuation. Even SARs period only drop less than 10%. Can anyone remember in 1997, we are talking about countries failing. Thailand basically went bankrupt after their currency crash. In 2008, even the biggest bank like Citibank and AIG sank. So you can imagine that kind of crisis we are talking about.
Now, economy at 7% growth. QE1 + QE2 liquidity still find ways around. How not to go up?
For those who sell and rent, then I say good luck to you. Either the biggest economy screws up again or you need a whole region to fail. Not those small region. But like Asia or whole of Europe. And even so, you only get like 30% off. Not worth the risk and not forgetting the rental you are paying every month. Anyone read the citibank analyst report?
Resale prices of private homes continue to rise (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1137625/1/.html)
By Mustafa Shafawi | Posted: 28 June 2011 1417 hrs
SINGAPORE: Resale prices of private homes continue to rise in the second quarter of this year.
According to DTZ Research, resale prices of private residential properties increased at a faster rate across all segments in the second quarter of this year compared to the first.
It says the average resale price of leasehold condominiums in the suburban areas rose the fastest by 3.9 per cent on-quarter, compared to 0.8 per cent in the first quarter.
The average resale price of freehold condominiums in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 grew by 3.3 per cent on-quarter compared to 0.4% per cent in the first quarter, based on a basket of completed condominiums tracked by DTZ Research.
The average resale price of luxury condominiums rose the least at 1.7 per cent.
But DTZ Research said it reflected an increase over the flat prices registered in the first quarter.
This it said is the only segment with prices still below the 2007 peak.
Ms Chua Chor Hoon, Head of DTZ South East Asia Research, said prices continue to trend upwards because sellers are benchmarking against the prices of new launches.
- CNA/fa
It is not surprising. It is so expected. I have posted so many times since end 2009 that property will continue to chiong regardless of CMs if the economy is strong. It is just history lessons anyway. Just look at our URA chart and you can see only a massive crisis/shock can bring down property prices. If not, it just stay around that level.
The only time where prices drop quite badly is:-
1) 1997 - Asia financial crisis
2) 2008 - US financial meltdown
The others are just minor fluctuation. Even SARs period only drop less than 10%. Can anyone remember in 1997, we are talking about countries failing. Thailand basically went bankrupt after their currency crash. In 2008, even the biggest bank like Citibank and AIG sank. So you can imagine that kind of crisis we are talking about.
Now, economy at 7% growth. QE1 + QE2 liquidity still find ways around. How not to go up?
For those who sell and rent, then I say good luck to you. Either the biggest economy screws up again or you need a whole region to fail. Not those small region. But like Asia or whole of Europe. And even so, you only get like 30% off. Not worth the risk and not forgetting the rental you are paying every month. Anyone read the citibank analyst report?
The correction period (rather than crash) in 2008 was rather short though. Prices start chionging up again in late 2009. Dunno how long was the window period in 1997?
thomastansb
29-06-11, 14:40
1 year I believe?
The correction period (rather than crash) in 2008 was rather short though. Prices start chionging up again in late 2009. Dunno how long was the window period in 1997?
The correction period (rather than crash) in 2008 was rather short though. Prices start chionging up again in late 2009. Dunno how long was the window period in 1997?
1997 was really v long man. Don't have the data on hand but I think the prices were stagnant for a prolonged period. I think it was 2003-04 before the prices really started moving significantly. Perhaps the older members in the forum can enlighten us? :)
bargain hunter
29-06-11, 14:47
in some cases it was until 2005 and some even 2006 before prices started to move up significantly again.
thomas is right about the 1 year, during 98/99 there was a very short rally but prices didn't exactly make a new high. then the other crisis like dot.com/911 and SARS came and that led the market to stagnate till 05.
thomas is also right that prices fell 10% during SARS but that's because before that, it already started falling after dot.com.
1997 was really v long man. Don't have the data on hand but I think the prices were stagnant for a prolonged period. I think it was 2003-04 before the prices really started moving significantly. Perhaps the older members in the forum can enlighten us? :)
yes, as ammunition when things begin to blow up in Euro zone or China.:D
cash is valuable as a means to benefit from disasters. It is as good as options. :D
If Euro zone or greek crisis, then what would happen? If ppty if fueled mostly by low interest rates might actually keep rates low for longer, so then ppty prices might continue to escalate.
phantom_opera
29-06-11, 15:19
We have about 25k marriages per year, 7.5k divorces per year .... Khaw keeps saying he will build 25k units .... call it ahead of demand ... :doh:
Would divorce means demand for another home? ;)
Greece default will only affect banks in Europe, hurting bank stocks ... I don't think it can kill the big banks. Only Spain is the real risk.
Again, China is always the last saviour ;)
Ha ha ha! What a apt reply!
Truth is, actually many are still keeping banana money in the banks, that is why interest rate can be so lowwwww.....! If everybody draws out their cash to invest, bank will not have so much capital available to lend, so will have to raise deposit interest to induce more people to deposit banana paper cash into the banks! :cheers1:
I knows of many who have been burnt in one way or another in the past few years and many are so conservative that they don't invest in anything other than keep their cash in FDs and deposit accounts spread over many banks and pay for their cars and house in cash! :scared-2:
Come on, the opposite is true, private property speculators are probably only 20%, M3 which includes bank deposits has expanded by 100% since 2005, majority is banana notes .. I know someone who paid his 1.5mio property in cash last year :tsk-tsk:
phantom_opera
29-06-11, 15:27
My watch collector fren said Rolex better than FD:
http://www.minus4plus6.com/PriceEvolution.htm
devilplate
29-06-11, 15:27
Ha ha ha! What a apt reply!
Truth is, actually many are still keeping banana money in the banks, that is why interest rate can be so lowwwww.....! If everybody draws out their cash to invest, bank will not have so much capital available to lend, so will have to raise deposit interest to induce more people to deposit banana paper cash into the banks! :cheers1:
I knows of many who have been burnt in one way or another in the past few years and many are so conservative that they don't invest in anything other than keep their cash in FDs and deposit accounts spread over many banks and pay for their cars and house in cash! :scared-2:
U r right to say banks got too much cash to lend....they can even reduce loading to 0.65% which is really unheard of last time! I remember sibor+0.8% is the lowest few yrs ago....now 0.65%!!!! Whahaha
Toking abt paying car in full, i only took car loan once n i realise abt the effective int rate plus rule 78 when i change car, den i nvr take car loan again liao....:ashamed1:
Fully paid ur primary home is ok....but really funny is they go n fully paid other investment ppty...hehe
You need a real contagion rather than talks of a contagion to bring the market down.
bargain hunter
29-06-11, 15:40
2007 there were already 0.70% and 0.75% + loading but sibor was high then.
U r right to say banks got too much cash to lend....they can even reduce loading to 0.65% which is really unheard of last time! I remember sibor+0.8% is the lowest few yrs ago....now 0.65%!!!! Whahaha
Toking abt paying car in full, i only took car loan once n i realise abt the effective int rate plus rule 78 when i change car, den i nvr take car loan again liao....:ashamed1:
Fully paid ur primary home is ok....but really funny is they go n fully paid other investment ppty...hehe
U r right to say banks got too much cash to lend....they can even reduce loading to 0.65% which is really unheard of last time! I remember sibor+0.8% is the lowest few yrs ago....now 0.65%!!!! Whahaha
Toking abt paying car in full, i only took car loan once n i realise abt the effective int rate plus rule 78 when i change car, den i nvr take car loan again liao....:ashamed1:
Fully paid ur primary home is ok....but really funny is they go n fully paid other investment ppty...hehe
fully paid investment property....easier to compare rental yield vs bank FD mah
fully paid investment property....easier to compare rental yield vs bank FD mah
A 20-30% leverage will be useful in juicing up the returns.
devilplate
29-06-11, 16:02
A 20-30% leverage will be useful in juicing up the returns.
I tot i were conservative oredi by taking 50-60% loan:scared-5:
Fully paid ur primary home is ok....but really funny is they go n fully paid other investment ppty...heheWell, the way I see it is this. Some people pay fully for their investment property because they have a slightly different idea of investment! I know of people who set aside one or two private condos fully paid to use the rents as household expenses so there's total provision for their family and when market is right, they can also sell and make another hefty profit. They will get a third investment property at 60% LTV for speculation. Therefore their mentality is more of semi or full retirement already. No need to care if he's working or not and family is well fed. No need to care if bank interest rates rises or not and family is well fed. Minimal risk! :o I would certainly love to retire with 2 or 3 fully paid condo feeding me for my 3-monthly tours around the world plus basic food and other hobbies! :p
Well, the way I see it is this. Some people pay fully for their investment property because they have a slightly different idea of investment! I know of people who set aside one or two private condos fully paid to use the rents as household expenses so there's total provision for their family and when market is right, they can also sell and make another hefty profit. They will get a third investment property at 60% LTV for speculation. Therefore their mentality is more of semi or full retirement already. No need to care if he's working or not and family is well fed. No need to care if bank interest rates rises or not and family is well fed. Minimal risk! :o I would certainly love to retire with 2 or 3 fully paid condo feeding me for my 3-monthly tours around the world plus basic food and other hobbies! :p
Well, devilplate has his point becos' for tax purposes, it is good to have some debt. The interest expense can be use to offset against rental revenue. If total rental revenue (without interest expense) pushes you over to a higher tax bracket, it may make sense to take on some debt so that nett taxable rental revenue has minimal impact and keeps you in a lower bracket.
Also, becos' capital outlay is smaller, ROI on each unit could be much higher if prices goes up.
Well, devilplate has his point becos' for tax purposes, it is good to have some debt. The interest expense can be use to offset against rental revenue. If total rental revenue (without interest expense) pushes you over to a higher tax bracket, it may make sense to take on some debt so that nett taxable rental revenue has minimal impact and keeps you in a lower bracket.Well its really a matter of choice. So is there a minimum loan amount to qualify you not to be in that undesirable tax bracket? Maybe a 20% loan might be that right compromise? :o
Well its really a matter of choice. So is there a minimum loan amount to qualify you not to be in that undesirable tax bracket? Maybe a 20% loan might be that right compromise? :o
Depends on a lot of factors:
Current taxable income from employment or bizness, rental revenue, interest rates, opportunity cost of holding cash etc...prudent tax planning will save you lots of $$$$
I tot i were conservative oredi by taking 50-60% loan:scared-5:
For those who are used to 0% loan. I think 50% is too much for comfort. So 20% is like baby steps.
I would love to buy even with 5% LTV..:ashamed1:
As long as I can pay almost nothing upfront am happy..
even 20% is too much upfront..
devilplate
29-06-11, 20:05
I would love to buy even with 5% LTV..:ashamed1:
As long as I can pay almost nothing upfront am happy..
even 20% is too much upfront..
Tats how subprime started
Zero cash down better rite
Btw shd be 95% ltv n not 5%ltv:p
Tats how subprime started
Zero cash down better rite
Btw shd be 95% ltv n not 5%ltv:p
As long as I can dump as unit in case of crash and run...:D
BTW people working in banks can still get 90%LTV..special priviledge :D
Unfortunately I work in investment bank with no retail unit in SG :banghead::banghead::banghead:
BTW people working in banks can still get 90%LTV..special priviledge :D
Unfortunately I work in investment bank with no retail unit in SG :banghead::banghead::banghead:
V strange. How come can get the additional 10% LTV? Unless bank lend the additional 10% to staff without the property as collateral? Dun understand leh.........
As long as I can dump as unit in case of crash and run...:D
BTW people working in banks can still get 90%LTV..special priviledge :D
Unfortunately I work in investment bank with no retail unit in SG :banghead::banghead::banghead:That's the problem. Difficult to dump the unit in case of crash! No buyers unless banks take back unit and you basically loose the 10% you've paid (as you mentioned about 90%LTV) which easily works out to be $100k for a $1m unit! That's too much to forfeit, isn't it? You probably need 2.1 years or $4k monthly rental to make that $100k. On top of the buyer's stamp duty paid as well as SSD (if you are buying now). Totally not worth lah!
Tats how subprime started
Zero cash down better rite
Btw shd be 95% ltv n not 5%ltv:p
Subprime was called subprime because the process of ascertaining debt service cover and income wasn't very robust.
That's the problem. Difficult to dump the unit in case of crash! No buyers unless banks take back unit and you basically loose the 10% you've paid (as you mentioned about 90%LTV) which easily works out to be $100k for a $1m unit! That's too much to forfeit, isn't it? You probably need 2.1 years or $4k monthly rental to make that $100k. On top of the buyer's stamp duty paid as well as SSD (if you are buying now). Totally not worth lah!
Thats why I am not a buyer :D
If they give me loan on 5% am ok to take risk.. 10% Not worth it.. 20% no way..
If 5% you can play big and see for few years how things go.. if doesnt works out.. just dump it on bank..:spliff2:
kingkong1984
29-06-11, 21:59
90 percent for staff only, banker privileges,
Thats why I am not a buyer :D
If they give me loan on 5% am ok to take risk.. 10% Not worth it.. 20% no way..
If 5% you can play big and see for few years how things go.. if doesnt works out.. just dump it on bank..:spliff2:
As long as you're a Singapore resident, the banks will get you to make good the difference if any. You can't walk away like in the US.
Thats why I am not a buyer :D
If they give me loan on 5% am ok to take risk.. 10% Not worth it.. 20% no way..
If 5% you can play big and see for few years how things go.. if doesnt works out.. just dump it on bank..:spliff2:With the current local housing market, 95% LTV belongs in the dream and some fairytale fable! :p
As long as you're a Singapore resident, the banks will get you to make good the difference if any. You can't walk away like in the US.The only way out I think is to declare yourself a bankrupt but that is really an unwise thing to do! :tsk-tsk:
V strange. How come can get the additional 10% LTV? Unless bank lend the additional 10% to staff without the property as collateral? Dun understand leh.........
Umm.. thats the normal practice.. all bank do this.. one of the incentive to join a bank :ashamed1:
..may be they put rest 10% on their books..
Also the interest rate is just Sibor .. no extra bank lending charges:cheers1:
.. can save arnd 10K just by taking 1M loan ;)..
rattydrama
29-06-11, 22:17
We have about 25k marriages per year, 7.5k divorces per year .... Khaw keeps saying he will build 25k units .... call it ahead of demand ... :doh:
Would divorce means demand for another home? ;)
Greece default will only affect banks in Europe, hurting bank stocks ... I don't think it can kill the big banks. Only Spain is the real risk.
Again, China is always the last saviour ;)
If HDB starts to build more flats, perhaps we will see more than 25k marriages a year....
We have about 25k marriages per year, 7.5k divorces per year .... Khaw keeps saying he will build 25k units .... call it ahead of demand ... :doh:
Would divorce means demand for another home? ;)
Greece default will only affect banks in Europe, hurting bank stocks ... I don't think it can kill the big banks. Only Spain is the real risk.
Again, China is always the last saviour ;)
7.5k divorces per year....
hmmm.... there's your 7.5k demand for MMs every year:D
No wonder MMs are selling like hotcakes:cheers1:
7.5k divorces per year....
hmmm.... there's your 7.5k demand for MMs every year:D
No wonder MMs are selling like hotcakes:cheers1:
Shit!..
why would they buy MM.. do they not wanna get married again?
think even divorcee would go for 2 bedder.. everyone wants to keep hopes alive :D
rattydrama
29-06-11, 22:26
Umm.. thats the normal practice.. all bank do this.. one of the incentive to join a bank :ashamed1:
..may be they put rest 10% on their books..
Also the interest rate is just Sibor .. no extra bank lending charges:cheers1:
.. can save arnd 10K just by taking 1M loan ;)..
we are paying 20% dp or 40% dp... you mean bank's people just 10%... something is very wrong with the system.
kingkong1984
29-06-11, 22:28
we are paying 20% dp or 40% dp... you mean bank's people just 10%... something is very wrong with the system.
Already said the world is not fair.
Shit!..
why would they buy MM.. do they not wanna get married again?
think even divorcee would go for 2 bedder.. everyone wants to keep hopes alive :D
no money mah.... cannot buy HDB, have to pay alimony....:mad:
Does it mean that bankers or anyone working in banks who receive that 90% LTV can get around the country's housing laws? Hmmm... don't sound right! :scared-4:
rattydrama
29-06-11, 22:39
Does it mean that bankers or anyone working in banks who receive that 90% LTV can get around the country's housing laws? Hmmm... don't sound right! :scared-4:
on one hand we have cm1-4 curbing the property price and one the other hand we have foreign buyer paying 10% as d/p... inevitably pushing up the property price...so we welcome foreigners to buy our ppty and push up the price....
on one hand we have cm1-4 curbing the property price and one the other hand we have foreign buyer paying 10% as d/p... inevitably pushing up the property price...so we welcome foreigners to buy our ppty and push up the price....So foreigners can invest in our properties at 10% d/p while citizens must fork out up to 40%? So govt is trying to say foreigners don't have to bring :2cents: :2cents: into our land but can take big :2cents: :2cents: away after they sell those properties to who else but Singaporeans? Let outsiders come and make money from citizens? Hmmm... :doh:
on one hand we have cm1-4 curbing the property price and one the other hand we have foreign buyer paying 10% as d/p... inevitably pushing up the property price...so we welcome foreigners to buy our ppty and push up the price....
don't think our kiasu kiasi garment will allow this loophole for local loans.... :mad:
complain to MAS lah :)
Then again most of these foreigners who come to invest in our properties and not physically here to work, etc usually have loads of cash so they probably will pay more than 10% d/p lah! :D But I suppose there are always exceptions?
flagship74
29-06-11, 22:47
Then again most of these foreigners who come to invest in our properties and not physically here to work, etc usually have loads of cash so they probably will pay more than 10% d/p lah! :D But I suppose there are always exceptions?
they paid cash 1 lah:cheers1:
rattydrama
29-06-11, 23:05
don't think our kiasu kiasi garment will allow this loophole for local loans.... :mad:
complain to MAS lah :)
I read somewhere DocBullShit is the one wor... how to complaint??
I read somewhere DocBullShit is the one wor... how to complaint??Don't need to say which bank. Just say you heard ... then make them accoutable so they bo pian go investigate and then :scared-1: that its DocBullShit. :D
rattydrama
29-06-11, 23:08
they paid cash 1 lah:cheers1:
around 64 here to work... all pay in cash? :beats-me-man: they bank people has the know how... nvr pay full but let $ work harder for them...
Think its always more difficult for foreigners to get bank loans so they'd rather save the trouble and pay cash! :D
90 percent for staff only, banker privileges,
But how does this actually work? Isnt this a blatant infringement of the 80% rule? The only way I can see this working, is for the bank to give a legally separate 10% staff loan without any collateral.
But this will surely be challenged in court right, under "substance over form"?
rattydrama
29-06-11, 23:35
Think its always more difficult for foreigners to get bank loans so they'd rather save the trouble and pay cash! :Deasy... they are bonded "high flyers"..
Don't need to say which bank. Just say you heard ... then make them accoutable so they bo pian go investigate and then :scared-1: that its DocBullShit. :D
its not a loophole, they give staff loan ONLY to property you are living in! on top of that, the rates are damn good, its SIBID - 1% with a min cap at 1%. So, SIBOR can hit 2% and you still pay 1%.....
its not a loophole, they give staff loan ONLY to property you are living in! on top of that, the rates are damn good, its SIBID - 1% with a min cap at 1%. So, SIBOR can hit 2% and you still pay 1%.....
Err......Staff rates gd I can understand, but can u explain why it does not contravene the 80% LTV? The rules doesn't differentiate betw whether you are living in or renting out right?
Anyway if it's the retail banks that are doing this, I can call up my RMs from the 3 local banks & Citi to understand more about this interesting loophole.......:D
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