what size/location of condo is best investment?

[condo888]

what size of condo is best investment and at which location?

size
1) shoes box size - 50m.sq
2) 2 bedroom - 80m.sq
3) 3 bedroom - 100m.sq
4) 4 bedroom - 130m.sq

location
A) Prime
B) City Fringe
C) Suburbia

Considerations:
1) rental returns
2) potential capital gain
3) initial capital cost
4) which will have hardest hit during recession or best gain during boom?

[devilplate]

what size of condo is best investment and at which location?

size
1) shoes box size - 50m.sq
2) 2 bedroom - 80m.sq
3) 3 bedroom - 100m.sq
4) 4 bedroom - 130m.sq

location
A) Prime
B) City Fringe
C) Suburbia

Considerations:
1) rental returns
2) potential capital gain
3) initial capital cost
4) which will have hardest hit during recession or best gain during boom?

For point number 4, big units in ccr hardest hit during the short 6mths firesale period in 2009......so many such units trying to sell at a loss.

[howgozit]

Would you also consider FH, 999LH, 99LH... etc as factors? Possible impact on potential capital gains no?

[DC33_2008]

Location and flipping of units are prime factors for capital gain.
Would you also consider FH, 999LH, 99LH... etc as factors? Possible impact on potential capital gains no?

[fiat500]

what size of condo is best investment and at which location?

size
1) shoes box size - 50m.sq
2) 2 bedroom - 80m.sq
3) 3 bedroom - 100m.sq
4) 4 bedroom - 130m.sq

location
A) Prime
B) City Fringe
C) Suburbia

Considerations:
1) rental returns
2) potential capital gain
3) initial capital cost
4) which will have hardest hit during recession or best gain during boom?
for best investment point of view..
1 bedder (above 500sq ft) in prime..eg: altez,clift,tribeca,metz
2 bedder in city fringe..eg: citylights,southbank,citysquare,belvedere,seafront.
avoid suburbia for investment,to live in is good.:cheers6:

[Regulators]

There is no such thing as avoiding any place for investment, anywhere can be good for investment if the entry price is right. For suburbia, you can see good rental returns place capital appreciation as well, depends where you buy and at what price. For prime, if you can stomach a drop from $2k psf to $1400psf during a crisis, you can go ahead to buy. For ocr, if you buy at $800psf, how low can the price go especially when you have hdb prices to act as a buffer.
for best investment point of view..
1 bedder (above 500sq ft) in prime..eg: altez,clift,tribeca,metz
2 bedder in city fringe..eg: citylights,southbank,citysquare,belvedere,seafront.
avoid suburbia for investment,to live in is good.:cheers6:

[amk]

Hmmm looks like suddenly we have many new members buying/looking to buy now... A sign of another bull run ?

[rockinsg]

Whyyya u looking to invest when cannot even sell within 4 years time...who know what next... cannot sell for 10 years.. :mad:

[azeoprop]

Whyyya u looking to invest when cannot even sell within 4 years time...who know what next... cannot sell for 10 years.. :mad:

Yah loh...I sold a studio and bought another 1 bedroom, now stuck with 4year ssd...bad move...sianz. :banghead:

[iwantgizmos]

what size of condo is best investment and at which location?

size
1) shoes box size - 50m.sq
2) 2 bedroom - 80m.sq
3) 3 bedroom - 100m.sq
4) 4 bedroom - 130m.sq

location
A) Prime
B) City Fringe
C) Suburbia

Considerations:
1) rental returns
2) potential capital gain
3) initial capital cost
4) which will have hardest hit during recession or best gain during boom?

frankly speaking, there is no such thing as "best" investment choice...
else everyone will be doing the same...
it's all up to how hungry you are in terms of risk appetite...
high risk would probably produce high returns...

if you ask me, best to invest in landed...
location wise, you have to do you own research... i ain't gonna tell it here... :)

[kingkong1984]

Go get beside railway before prices moved.

[fiat500]

There is no such thing as avoiding any place for investment, anywhere can be good for investment if the entry price is right. For suburbia, you can see good rental returns place capital appreciation as well, depends where you buy and at what price. For prime, if you can stomach a drop from $2k psf to $1400psf during a crisis, you can go ahead to buy. For ocr, if you buy at $800psf, how low can the price go especially when you have hdb prices to act as a buffer.
of coz there's a reason..a very strong reason in fact.:cheers6:
reason to avoid suburbia for investment is because in a downturn,your 1 bedder n 2 bedder in prime n city fringe location can still be rented out..
there will still be demand for these 1 n 2 bedders even though rental rates will be lower.
for suburbia? well......:sleep::sleep: :cheers6:

[kingkong1984]

Actually very easy to understand.

Just rank them all in terms of rental price

Scale of 10 to 1

Normal time, each with earn it's rent, 10, 7, 4 and 1 for example.

In bad times, 10 become 7, 7 become 4, 4 become 1, 1 die lor....

Wahahaha......

[yjcai]

In general

For capital appreciation -
suburbia (highest sq ft you can afford lowest psf to your liking) in super recessionary levels in decent periods of housing slumps provided you do not lose your jobs. Agents beg you to tour empty units and ghost units. You say no. 6m later they still call you back. You are considering because of super high. interest rates. You must have the buy to stay mentality and you decide to just buy when nobody is buying at low levels.

For rental -
prime and future JLD - consider more on investment factor and more homework needed. I would prefer to pick rental on 2 bedders on desired location and size. If mixed development of 2 bed, 1 bed and MM. I pick 2 bed to be the price setter. Imagine you buy MM to lower rates because the 2 bed lower its rental during sucky periods. I would compare hotel rates and expatriate traffic, ask myself why people will rent my unit given competition nearby. If minimal big units and mostly MM 1 bed, buy MM and 1-bedder.

[devilplate]

of coz there's a reason..a very strong reason in fact.:cheers6:
reason to avoid suburbia for investment is because in a downturn,your 1 bedder n 2 bedder in prime n city fringe location can still be rented out..
there will still be demand for these 1 n 2 bedders even though rental rates will be lower.
for suburbia? well......:sleep::sleep: :cheers6:
Not sure abt ocr 1bdr....

But cfm got demand for ocr 2bdr la

Entry px impt la.....2bdr ocr can easily get at 500k in early 07....jus rent out 1.5k aso can tahan recession la...

For me, all sectors abt the same now....ccr cfm not undervalued....those who say so simply use those ocr highest psf achieved in new launches to compare.....new launches in watever R aso overpriced now....

[kingkong1984]

R means run.... Better run if u haven't done so.... Hahaha

[dmon]

in D9, D10, D11 - have anyone realised there is quite a number of condo units that are vacant/not tenanted?

What about the situation in OCR?

[fiat500]

dont confuse the 1 who asked the original question!
just stick to this theory for investment:
1 bedder buy in prime area, 2 bedder buy in city fringe.
surbubia avoid.
what price to buy?when to enter? u decide yourself coz nobody knows!
5 years ago if u had told your friends that jurong area will hit 1000psf ,they would have laugh at u saying u must b crazy!
see what happened now? the best is go by your own gut feeling! :cheers6: :cheers6:

[devilplate]

dont confuse the 1 who asked the original question!
just stick to this theory for investment:
1 bedder buy in prime area, 2 bedder buy in city fringe.
surbubia avoid.
what price to buy?when to enter? u decide yourself coz nobody knows!
5 years ago if u had told your friends that jurong area will hit 1000psf ,they would have laugh at u saying u must b crazy!
see what happened now? the best is go by your own gut feeling! :cheers6: :cheers6:

So 5yrs later jurong 1500psf crazy anot?

[nobrainer32007]

I suggest you go and stock up those 1¢ shares. How low can it go right?

Kns logic


There is no such thing as avoiding any place for investment, anywhere can be good for investment if the entry price is right. For suburbia, you can see good rental returns place capital appreciation as well, depends where you buy and at what price. For prime, if you can stomach a drop from $2k psf to $1400psf during a crisis, you can go ahead to buy. For ocr, if you buy at $800psf, how low can the price go especially when you have hdb prices to act as a buffer.

[devilplate]

I suggest you go and stock up those 1¢ shares. How low can it go right?

Kns logic
Stocks n ppty is diff la....

For stocks, can get delisted....

Basic cost of construction is there oredi n due to
inflation, cost will rise further

So let say 300psf total cost for developer, how to lose money if u can find a 300psf freehold ppty?:p

[fiat500]

So 5yrs later jurong 1500psf crazy anot?
honestly speaking! nobody knows?
10 years ago,if u had told an american that they will have a black president soon,he would be thinking u were talking nonsense :cheers6: :cheers6:

[nobrainer32007]

Of course i know. It is just an analogy to show how logic is sometimes not necessary in places such as here...:tongue3:


Stocks n ppty is diff la....

For stocks, can get delisted....

Basic cost of construction is there oredi n due to
inflation, cost will rise further

So let say 300psf total cost for developer, how to lose money if u can find a 300psf freehold ppty?:p

[DC33_2008]

Sure, it will hit 1500psf. The question is when? SGD has devalued. What is a million compared to 10 years ago?
So 5yrs later jurong 1500psf crazy anot?

[devilplate]

Sure, it will hit 1500psf. The question is when? SGD has devalued. What is a million compared to 10 years ago?
My timeframe is within 5yrs....or rather shd ask whether jurong can hit 1500psf b4 nxt downturn?

[DC33_2008]

Unlikely within 5 years.
My timeframe is within 5yrs....or rather shd ask whether jurong can hit 1500psf b4 nxt downturn?

[Regulators]

Comparing two totally different investment vehicles, how shallow can you get. Property prices have this tagging effect and I can guarantee you that condo prices will not go lower than HDB prices for a given area which is what i mean by buffer. :doh: :doh:


I suggest you go and stock up those 1¢ shares. How low can it go right?

Kns logic

[rattydrama]

My timeframe is within 5yrs....or rather shd ask whether jurong can hit 1500psf b4 nxt downturn?

maybe those smaller units got chance. there are not many old condo projects in Jurong so far...coupled with lots of empty lands, the only way is to go up.

Jurong is an untested ground so if you belief in JLD, probably will bite.

[devilplate]

maybe those smaller units got chance. there are not many old condo projects in Jurong so far...coupled with lots of empty lands, the only way is to go up.

Jurong is an untested ground so if you belief in JLD, probably will bite.
My mentality is, jurong still jurong...jld is not gg to be like mbfc...hehe

So if jur hit 1500psf, places like buona vista, queenstown, redhill will hit 2kpsf+...wow...den ccr d1,2 prolly hit 3kpsf? :D :D

Anyway, jur, simei, abt the same psf....even livia in pasir ris hit 9xxpsf without any story....

Cheapest ocr in far north now at 8xxpsf....

[Ultroman]

Just feel that we shd not keep comparing against prices 5 years ago. Where was China 5 years ago now, Chinese buyers are coming in all directions. Now dat our government intends to decentralise, we may see prices in JLD, tampines or even woodland coming to 1200psf and close the gap with ccr. In any case, as long as foreigners willing to pay high rent for these areas, the price is supported by the yield :)

[rattydrama]

My mentality is, jurong still jurong...jld is not gg to be like mbfc...hehe

So if jur hit 1500psf, places like buona vista, queenstown, redhill will hit 2kpsf+...wow...den ccr d1,2 prolly hit 3kpsf? :D :D

it could be a self contained town so price may not move in tandem with the rest of the district.... probably will move faster.... tats why I say untested.... foreigners may push up the price....and they are not keen/recommended to know redhill or queenstown... SG is a small city, end to end is near in their mentality.

and big developer is in the play ...capland...
its gonna to attract a special group of people.

The FEO agent told me today that a 23 year old China NUS student bou woodhaven in cash and said its cheap after the deal is done... too much liquidity in SG and i think they are parking their money anywhere in SG. BTW, he actually bou casablanca ...just passby to take a look and in the end ink on the paper without a blink saying to rent out one and keep another for self stay..

the profile of the buyers in OCR seems not limited to local singaporeans now...and that could explain why OCR ppty is moving over the last 2Q.


:2cents: :2cents:

[rattydrama]

Just feel that we shd not keep comparing against prices 5 years ago. Where was China 5 years ago now, Chinese buyers are coming in all directions. Now dat our government intends to decentralise, we may see prices in JLD, tampines or even woodland coming to 1200psf and close the gap with ccr. In any case, as long as foreigners willing to pay high rent for these areas, the price is supported by the yield :)

Yes you are right in today's market. cheapest condo in OCR is around 6xxpsf....and high end ones 2xxxpsf....so there is still gap to breach...

If its 6xxpsf, how low can it go?

[linchong84]

i agree with devilplate.. jurong is afterall still jurong.. unless one fine day, all big offices and shopping centres move out from the city area.. otherwise prices should still have fixed hierachy depending on distance to town..

[devilplate]

it could be a self contained town so price may not move in tandem with the rest of the district.... probably will move faster.... tats why I say untested.... foreigners may push up the price....and they are not keen/recommended to know redhill or queenstown... SG is a small city, end to end is near in their mentality.

and big developer is in the play ...capland...
its gonna to attract a special group of people.

The FEO agent told me today that a 23 year old China NUS student bou woodhaven in cash and said its cheap after the deal is done... too much liquidity in SG and i think they are parking their money anywhere in SG. BTW, he actually bou casablanca ...just passby to take a look and in the end ink on the paper without a blink saying to rent out one and keep another for self stay..

the profile of the buyers in OCR seems not limited to local singaporeans now...and that could explain why OCR ppty is moving over the last 2Q.


:2cents: :2cents:
I will aso buy woodhaven instead of casalanca....dun undersand y casa so ex....pay 50psf more can get brandnew nxt door...hehe

[linchong84]

I will aso buy woodhaven instead of casalanca....dun undersand y casa so ex....pay 50psf more can get brandnew nxt door...hehe

Some people want to move in immediatly.. Some people want to start earning rental immediatly..

[rattydrama]

to this group of people 99LH is good enough. Ya one for self stay and once Woodhaven TOP, move to new condo and rent out old condo.

Anyway Chinese prefers anything new.

[devilplate]

Some people want to move in immediatly.. Some people want to start earning rental immediatly..
So now its not true tat new launches r much more ex den resale....

In fact, cheapest 2bdr was only 800psf for woodhaven during preview n casablanca 2bdr 820-850psf!

So those keep saying cm4 unfair to resale market is not true...hehe:p
Its bcoz resale px is not much cheaper den new launches

[linchong84]

So now its not true tat new launches r much more ex den resale....

In fact, cheapest 2bdr was only 800psf for woodhaven during preview n casablanca 2bdr 820-850psf!

So those keep saying cm4 unfair to resale market is not true...hehe:p
Its bcoz resale px is not much cheaper den new launches

Go tell teddy that haha..

I think initially when the new one is launched, it is true that the gap is big because nowadays new launch prices are quite crazy.. Maybe last time FEO set this trend with silversea and now every developer copycat with ease.. But once the neighbouring resale owners saw the gap, they will increase their asking price so eventually they will still gap up.. Most prob cm4 did not create that big an impact betw new and resale.. but i not sure of the volume though..

[Regulators]

That literally nobrainer guy will probably tell you to buy 1 cent stocks
Yes you are right in today's market. cheapest condo in OCR is around 6xxpsf....and high end ones 2xxxpsf....so there is still gap to breach...

If its 6xxpsf, how low can it go?

[linchong84]

That literally nobrainer guy will probably tell you to buy 1 cent stocks

1 cent stocks got 80-90% chance to go broke and made the investors lose everything.. but ocr condo won't collapse leh haha..

[flagship74]

2012...:scared-1:

[amk]

So those keep saying cm4 unfair to resale market is not true...hehe:p
Its bcoz resale px is not much cheaper den new launches

I still say CM4 has bias against resales ( I dun use "unfair" to describe this). MBT's idea is squeeze liquidity, and protect lenders, safeguarding buyer's interest (I.e. Babysit them) was the by product. However majority are short sighted, as long as there is no immediate cash upfront, the measure is far less effective. There is an average of 1.5 yrs before the next 20%, ppl are counting their future income and bonus to save up for this. Prudent financial planning is never a norm in pty buyers! Particularly in the group of upgraders buying OCR condos to fulfill their condo dream. Developers sense this, and realize high pricing still works. Excessive liquidity is the root of all this, and CM4 is not addressing it well for new sales.

[dmon]

everyone knows property prices will increase over time due to inflation and esp. and scarcity in SG. the only window is when prices fall and they do fall sharply in SG and HK when there is economy downturn

buy a few units in OCR when that happens.
investment returns higher than CCR.

CCR for foreign investors.

[devilplate]

I still say CM4 has bias against resales ( I dun use "unfair" to describe this). MBT's idea is squeeze liquidity, and protect lenders, safeguarding buyer's interest (I.e. Babysit them) was the by product. However majority are short sighted, as long as there is no immediate cash upfront, the measure is far less effective. There is an average of 1.5 yrs before the next 20%, ppl are counting their future income and bonus to save up for this. Prudent financial planning is never a norm in pty buyers! Particularly in the group of upgraders buying OCR condos to fulfill their condo dream. Developers sense this, and realize high pricing still works. Excessive liquidity is the root of all this, and CM4 is not addressing it well for new sales.
How u noe ppl r counting on future income n bonus to save up for nxt 20%? Based on ur own prediction? I dun tink any sane ppl will do tat

This purely ur own assumption n i totally disagree:p

Furthermore, without cm1,2,3,4, new launches always hotter den resale....so u cannot say cm4 favors new launches n bias against resale.....

Developer realised they goto cut n shrink sizes further inorderto maintaij the high prices la due to 60%ltv.....we r oredi seeing ocr big projects shrink sizes n consists of more n more proportion of smaller units....

[Regulators]

You underestimate the flocks that throng to show flats to snap up units. No doubt the majority may be hdb upgraders, but they are no fool. They know that GLS will spur future price increases in the private property market and the continual rise in hdb prices caused by under supply of good flats in matured estates would help to support those sub $1k psf that they are paying. I have yet to see a good reason why a person buying Orchard residences at $4k psf and the marq at $5500psf should enjoy a 20% increase and those buying OCR should have prices remain below $1k psf. Our govt's intention is to defocus people from cental living by rejuvenating suburban areas and make them as livable as prime locations. In fact for those working in the suburban areas and living there, they do not even need to travel to orchard our anywhere in the central for anything coz the town they live in is so convenient. Apart from red light areas, I think people are increasingly coming to terms with the fact that quality of life is not only be found in the central but in any satellite town.
I still say CM4 has bias against resales ( I dun use "unfair" to describe this). MBT's idea is squeeze liquidity, and protect lenders, safeguarding buyer's interest (I.e. Babysit them) was the by product. However majority are short sighted, as long as there is no immediate cash upfront, the measure is far less effective. There is an average of 1.5 yrs before the next 20%, ppl are counting their future income and bonus to save up for this. Prudent financial planning is never a norm in pty buyers! Particularly in the group of upgraders buying OCR condos to fulfill their condo dream. Developers sense this, and realize high pricing still works. Excessive liquidity is the root of all this, and CM4 is not addressing it well for new sales.

[linchong84]

You underestimate the flocks that throng to show flats to snap up units. No doubt the majority may be hdb upgraders, but they are no fool. They know that GLS will spur future price increases in the private property market and the continual rise in hdb prices caused by under supply of good flats in matured estates would help to support those sub $1k psf that they are paying. I have yet to see a good reason why a person buying Orchard residences at $4k psf and the marq at $5500psf should enjoy a 20% increase and those buying OCR should have prices remain below $1k psf. Our govt's intention is to defocus people from cental living by rejuvenating suburban areas and make them as livable as prime locations. In fact for those working in the suburban areas and living there, they do not even need to travel to orchard our anywhere in the central for anything coz the town they live in is so convenient. Apart from red light areas, I think people are increasingly coming to terms with the fact that quality of life is not only be found in the central but in any satellite town.

u have just issued an open invitation for teddy to write a long essay to rebuke you :scared-2:

Anyway better not go into CCR vs OCR anymore..

[devilplate]

everyone knows property prices will increase over time due to inflation and esp. and scarcity in SG. the only window is when prices fall and they do fall sharply in SG and HK when there is economy downturn

buy a few units in OCR when that happens.
investment returns higher than CCR.

CCR for foreign investors.
I totally disagree again....

I always bio ccr/rcr during downturn.....most rewarding so far:D :D :D

I buy ocr in early 07 when ccr become crazy:spliff: :D :D :D again, very rewarding as well:cheers1:

[amk]

It's not my assumption, it's my observation over the last few show flat visits, most recently in Thomson. All bankers there told me "oh there is another 1.5yr to save". Note it's the bank salesman, not the agent. Save another 100k over 1 and half year is not very unrealistic for a couple earning say 12k , with 2 bonus in between

[devilplate]

It's not my assumption, it's my observation over the last few show flat visits, most recently in Thomson. All bankers there told me "oh there is another 1.5yr to save". Note it's the bank salesman, not the agent. Save another 100k over 1 and half year is not very unrealistic for a couple earning say 12k , with 2 bonus in between
U heard from banker hungry for sales....u win liao lor:doh:

[amk]

Regulators what r u disagreeing with ? I'm talking about the effect of 40% on new sales and resales.

[amk]

U heard from banker hungry for sales....u win liao lor:doh:

What r u trying to drive at ? Banker at 1st hand realize there is this mentality, and advertise it prominently. Is this not an unintended effect of this policy ? Let's face it, majority of pty buyers are not savvy investors.

[devilplate]

What r u trying to drive at ? Banker at 1st hand realize there is this mentality, and advertise it prominently. Is this not an unintended effect of this policy ? Let's face it, majority of pty buyers are not savvy investors.
Den how do u explain y new launches always hottter den resale b4 cm4?

So my point is regardless of watever cm, new launches haf been hotter den resale and therefore, u cant conclude tat cm4 favors new launches

And in fact,many new launches in ocr did not priced at sky high price! I tot feo wud priced seasand from 9xx to 1100psf given tat they had priced greenwich 1k to 1400psf!

[Regulators]

I was highlighting the point that ocr buyers flocking to buy new launches does not necessarily mean they lack financial prudence. Low interest (at least for the next couple of years), high liquidity, weak euro/usd, high inflation and SSD are main factors that spur current buying sentiments. Since buyers would have to wait out 4 years not to incur SSD, it makes a lot of sense for these buyers to go for new launches which takes averagely four years to complete. I heard from my fund manager relative that he is seeing an increased influx of foreign funds coming to singapore and many foreigners also believe in parking money in a singapore for the medium to long term as sgd continues to outperform major currencies and remains a stable currency to hold. Many also see singapore properties as a sure way to grow their wealth. With malaysian and hong kong developers coming to singapore, we will turn into another hong kong in a matter of time. Just sime thoughts.
Regulators what r u disagreeing with ? I'm talking about the effect of 40% on new sales and resales.

[devilplate]

Since buyers would have to wait out 4 years not to incur SSD, it makes a lot of sense for these buyers to go for new launches which takes averagely four years to complete.

Y it make more sense to buy new launches wif this 4yrs ssd? Cant flip nor rent out....Now buy resale n collect rent is da best bcoz can leverage asap on low int rates n making ur actual roi much higher den the rental yield! Rent out at 3-4% n borrow at 1.5%!!! No brainer!

But having said tat, new launches recently jus priced abit more den resale nearby.....so if i were to buy now, i LL aso goto buy new launches selectively rather den resale

[Regulators]

if a 5-10yr condo is selling at 800psf now and a new launch in the same vicinity is going for 8xxpsf, which one do you think has more upside in terms of capital appreciation in five years time? Two ways to invest, buy an old project and collect rent immediately or new project to cash out with higher capital appreciation after five years. I personally prefer the former.
Y it make more sense to buy new launches wif this 4yrs ssd? Cant flip nor rent out....Now buy resale n collect rent is da best bcoz can leverage asap on low int rates n making ur actual roi much higher den the rental yield! Rent out at 3-4% n borrow at 1.5%!!! No brainer!

But having said tat, new launches recently jus priced abit more den resale nearby.....so if i were to buy now, i LL aso goto buy new launches selectively rather den resale

[devilplate]

if a 5-10yr condo is selling at 800psf now and a new launch in the same vicinity is going for 8xxpsf, which one do you think has more upside in terms of capital appreciation in five years time? Two ways to invest, buy an old project and collect rent immediately or new project to cash out with higher capital appreciation after five years. I personally prefer the former.
On the other hand, many wud prefer to go for cap gain without the hassle of dealing wif tenants

[Regulators]

Actually the old and the new will both appreciate in price when top for new project comes along. you will get to benefit from rental and cap appreciation from the old project. Speaking from personal experience.
On the other hand, many wud prefer to go for cap gain without the hassle of dealing wif tenants

[ysyap]

if a 5-10yr condo is selling at 800psf now and a new launch in the same vicinity is going for 8xxpsf, which one do you think has more upside in terms of capital appreciation in five years time? Two ways to invest, buy an old project and collect rent immediately or new project to cash out with higher capital appreciation after five years. I personally prefer the former.Another important appeal of resale is the cash committment required for a new launch. Its cash after cash output but no cash income at all until you sell... some people don't have that financial muscle to pull that through! :o I also personally prefer the former which you've mentioned. :D

[ysyap]

Actually the old and the new will both appreciate in price when top for new project comes along. you will get to benefit from rental and cap appreciation from the old project. Speaking from personal experience.Agreed, if chosen wisely and decisively, you may even get a resale with a high cap appreciation than a new launch... :D

[teddybear]

I strongly agree with this.

If you have the cash, you don't want to buy 1 newly TOP or resale one that can see & feel the quality (you have no risk of "what you see in show room is not what you get" (this is just too common!)) & collect rental immediately vs buying new launch & start paying interest with zero rental for a few years (except: (1) the benefit of 20% delay in down payment for 1.5-2years & (2) delay in taking over the property)? :beats-me-man:

Above already doesn't make sense even if all sell at same price, not to mention new launch higher price than newly TOP one?

So it seem obvious the motivation of such buyers?
(1) have time to accumulate cash before next 20% down payment is due (for buying 2nd property onwards)
(2) to delay taking over physical property to let price appreciate before flipping & now further benefit of waiting for 4years SSD to be over?

So overall, CM4 helps new launch to get more buyers & penalize resale buyers via immediate 40% downpayment & 4years SSD carrying costs (need 40% cash immediate + full loan draw down immediate, little room for flippers to play!)
Then again, common sense is that land sellers benefit?
No wonder coffee shop many talks saying there is significant self-interest in introducing CM4!
So far, many people raised these many times but still no actions to rectify, their actions proving coffee shops talks are correct? :scared-1:




I still say CM4 has bias against resales ( I dun use "unfair" to describe this). MBT's idea is squeeze liquidity, and protect lenders, safeguarding buyer's interest (I.e. Babysit them) was the by product. However majority are short sighted, as long as there is no immediate cash upfront, the measure is far less effective. There is an average of 1.5 yrs before the next 20%, ppl are counting their future income and bonus to save up for this. Prudent financial planning is never a norm in pty buyers! Particularly in the group of upgraders buying OCR condos to fulfill their condo dream. Developers sense this, and realize high pricing still works. Excessive liquidity is the root of all this, and CM4 is not addressing it well for new sales.

[Regulators]

I know of an ang mo who bought a ten year old 3 storey 99yr semi d in burgundy rise not too long ago for $1.2 mil and recently he was offered $1.8 mil but he did not want to sell. Most people would jump at the $600k profit in such a short time but he preferred renting out his unit for $7.5k-8k a month. You see his five bedroom semi d at that kind of price you will surely lau nua whether 99 year or not.
Agreed, if chosen wisely and decisively, you may even get a resale with a high cap appreciation than a new launch... :D

[teddybear]

Answers to your question below. CM4 basically increased the perceived benefits & advantages of buying new launch vs resale!

(1) have time to accumulate cash before next 20% down payment is due (for buying 2nd property onwards) after CM4.
+ benefit of delayed full loan draw down, less carry costs to flip (always).

(2) to delay taking over physical property to let price appreciate before flipping & now further benefit of waiting for 4years SSD to be over?

Fact is, in 198x, new launch always sell at 10-20% discount to newly TOP properties! In those times, people really buy mostly for own stay! (See, that is the difference when majority of buyers objectives are no longer for own stay!)

You too young to even know about this fact? :cheers1:


I strongly agree with this.

If you have the cash, you don't want to buy 1 newly TOP or resale one that can see & feel the quality (you have no risk of "what you see in show room is not what you get" (this is just too common!)) & collect rental immediately vs buying new launch & start paying interest with zero rental for a few years (except: (1) the benefit of 20% delay in down payment for 1.5-2years & (2) delay in taking over the property)? :beats-me-man:

Above already doesn't make sense even if all sell at same price, not to mention new launch higher price than newly TOP one?

So it seem obvious the motivation of such buyers?
(1) have time to accumulate cash before next 20% down payment is due (for buying 2nd property onwards)
(2) to delay taking over physical property to let price appreciate before flipping & now further benefit of waiting for 4years SSD to be over?

So overall, CM4 helps new launch to get more buyers & penalize resale buyers via immediate 40% downpayment & 4years SSD carrying costs (need 40% cash immediate + full loan draw down immediate, little room for flippers to play!)
Then again, common sense is that land sellers benefit?
No wonder coffee shop many talks saying there is significant self-interest in introducing CM4!
So far, many people raised these many times but still no actions to rectify, their actions proving coffee shops talks are correct? :scared-1:




Den how do u explain y new launches always hottter den resale b4 cm4?

So my point is regardless of watever cm, new launches haf been hotter den resale and therefore, u cant conclude tat cm4 favors new launches

And in fact,many new launches in ocr did not priced at sky high price! I tot feo wud priced seasand from 9xx to 1100psf given tat they had priced greenwich 1k to 1400psf!

[SpinCity]

I still say CM4 has bias against resales ( I dun use "unfair" to describe this). MBT's idea is squeeze liquidity, and protect lenders, safeguarding buyer's interest (I.e. Babysit them) was the by product. However majority are short sighted, as long as there is no immediate cash upfront, the measure is far less effective. There is an average of 1.5 yrs before the next 20%, ppl are counting their future income and bonus to save up for this. Prudent financial planning is never a norm in pty buyers! Particularly in the group of upgraders buying OCR condos to fulfill their condo dream. Developers sense this, and realize high pricing still works. Excessive liquidity is the root of all this, and CM4 is not addressing it well for new sales.
For people who choose to buy off-the-plan new launches due to insufficient cash for 40% down payment, I seriously doubt that they can save another 10%-20% in the next 1.5 years

for the purchase of a 1m property, 40% down payment is 400K
if a person only have 200K now, the chance that this person can save another 200K in 1.5 years exists but very slim
and they shall know it themselves

[ysyap]

For people who choose to buy off-the-plan new launches due to insufficient cash for 40% down payment, I seriously doubt that they can save another 10%-20% in the next 1.5 years

for the purchase of a 1m property, 40% down payment is 400K
if a person only have 200K now, the chance that this person can save another 200K in 1.5 years exists but very slim
and they shall know it themselvesSo they just choose one that needs 3 years to TOP and up till then pay about 60% of loan and quickly sell it so just pay 4% SSD instead of 16%. :spliff:

[devilplate]

Actually the old and the new will both appreciate in price when top for new project comes along. you will get to benefit from rental and cap appreciation from the old project. Speaking from personal experience.
If only 50-100psf diff n the resale ppty oredi more den 5yo....cap gain definitely much more for new launch 4yrs later.....

Brand new jus top and resale turning 10yo+, do u tink the px will stay at 50-100psf diff even if both r freehold? Resale 99lh largi more cui

[devilplate]

So they just choose one that needs 3 years to TOP and up till then pay about 60% of loan and quickly sell it so just pay 4% SSD instead of 16%. :spliff:
Wat toking u?:beats-me-man:

[SpinCity]

So they just choose one that needs 3 years to TOP and up till then pay about 60% of loan and quickly sell it so just pay 4% SSD instead of 16%. :spliff:

That's possible, I don't disagree with you . People buy new launches for various reason.
My point is, there many be people who buy new launches solely because of lack of cash for down payment at the time and counting on future income to make up the deficiency, but this group of people shall be rather small. That's all

[devilplate]

Anyway, i shall stick to my own strategy, buy resale/subsale during downturn and buy new launches during initial bull run and den may consider to sell some toxic ones away while keeping the gems n see if can find relatively undervalued gems in the resale market:D :D :D

[devilplate]

That's possible, I don't disagree with you . People buy new launches for various reason.
My point is, there many be people who buy new launches solely because of lack of cash for down payment at the time and counting on future income to make up the deficiency, but this group of people shall be rather small. That's all
Yes vy small.....unless they implement 60%ltv but dun hf 4yrs ssd....den mabe got some brave souls wana try to flip within 1.5yrs....even den, this group of buyers shd b just a small handful too

[kingkong1984]

Anyway, i shall stick to my own strategy, buy resale/subsale during downturn and buy new launches during initial bull run and den may consider to sell some toxic ones away while keeping the gems n see if can find relatively undervalued gems in the resale market:D :D :D
Expert lah... Reslae and sub sale when no tenants to target and economy bad.

Go into higher gear at the starting line. Dash to the finish line. We have already crossed the finish line now.

The biggest apple should be sold, grow new apple trees. That is call harvesting.

[devilplate]

Answers to your question below. CM4 basically increased the perceived benefits & advantages of buying new launch vs resale!

(1) have time to accumulate cash before next 20% down payment is due (for buying 2nd property onwards) after CM4.
+ benefit of delayed full loan draw down, less carry costs to flip (always).

(2) to delay taking over physical property to let price appreciate before flipping & now further benefit of waiting for 4years SSD to be over?

Fact is, in 198x, new launch always sell at 10-20% discount to newly TOP properties! In those times, people really buy mostly for own stay! (See, that is the difference when majority of buyers objectives are no longer for own stay!)

You too young to even know about this fact? :cheers1:

Dun make any sense to me...b4 cm4, ppl buy new launches wif the possibility to flip which is suitable for those who dunwan the hassle of dealing wif tenants...but now, cm4 actually favor resale since the main benefit of flpping b4 TOP is gone!

But bcoz resellers asking sky high px wif their rundown apts n low rental yield, buyers still continue to buy from developers!

In fact, developers like feo wasnt aggressive wif their recent projects in terms of pricing! However, resale px had close the gap wif new launches! Wat does tat show? i m toking abt actual facts n figures rather den ur own assmptions!:p

U keep saying resale market less demand...y not u try selling ur units at current market price ? Surely got takers one....but bcoz most resellers asking sky high px now tats y resale tx is low

[Lovelle]

Actually the old and the new will both appreciate in price when top for new project comes along. you will get to benefit from rental and cap appreciation from the old project. Speaking from personal experience.

fr 2006 - 2008 , many go for new and continute to buy-sell.

nobody interested in renting..

[devilplate]

fr 2006 - 2008 , many go for new and continute to buy-sell.

nobody interested in renting..
Partly bcoz int rate was 3.5% and rental yield abt the same as well....but now borrow cheaply n make more!

[Lovelle]

Partly bcoz int rate was 3.5% and rental yield abt the same as well....but now borrow cheaply n make more!

int rate was at <2% fr 2007 right ? or i was wrong..

also rental lag behind cap appreciation fr the beginning. only now started to catchup

[DC33_2008]

I am adopting similar strategy too. :)
Anyway, i shall stick to my own strategy, buy resale/subsale during downturn and buy new launches during initial bull run and den may consider to sell some toxic ones away while keeping the gems n see if can find relatively undervalued gems in the resale market:D :D :D

[devilplate]

int rate was at <2% fr 2007 right ? or i was wrong..

also rental lag behind cap appreciation fr the beginning. only now started to catchup
In 07 before subprime emerge, int rate ard 3.5%:D

So those who believe px may correct if int rate shoot up...well may nid to hit above 4% to see any impact:2cents: :D

[kingkong1984]

Yup, I think 4% will start to hurt. >5% is a warning sign already.

[devilplate]

Yup, I think 4% will start to hurt. >5% is a warning sign already.
I tink 4% warning sign....5% may cause px to correct liao:scared-5:

[teddybear]

I repeat, CM4 favors flippers buying new launch even more, very obvious ESP with 4 years SSD because with & without SSD, they still need to wait for3-4years for completion, don't need to deal with tenants (because that is best for flippers)!
Regardless of how high resellers are asking, it is obvious that they are much lower than new launch generally & true most of time, except when that new launch are made of tofu suspicious quality & design & usable area vs sold sqft. :doh:


Dun make any sense to me...b4 cm4, ppl buy new launches wif the possibility to flip which is suitable for those who dunwan the hassle of dealing wif tenants...but now, cm4 actually favor resale since the main benefit of flpping b4 TOP is gone!

But bcoz resellers asking sky high px wif their rundown apts n low rental yield, buyers still continue to buy from developers!

In fact, developers like feo wasnt aggressive wif their recent projects in terms of pricing! However, resale px had close the gap wif new launches! Wat does tat show? i m toking abt actual facts n figures rather den ur own assmptions!:p

U keep saying resale market less demand...y not u try selling ur units at current market price ? Surely got takers one....but bcoz most resellers asking sky high px now tats y resale tx is low

[devilplate]

I repeat, CM4 favors flippers buying new launch even more, very obvious ESP with 4 years SSD because with & without SSD, they still need to wait for3-4years for completion, don't need to deal with tenants (because that is best for flippers)!
Regardless of how high resellers are asking, it is obvious that they are much lower than new launch generally & true most of time, except when that new launch are made of tofu suspicious quality & design & usable area vs sold sqft. :doh:
I m toking abt ocr new launches now like seastrand, 8cy tats selling well...Subsale like livia r selling higher!

No way cm4 favors new launches....buy new launches is to flip b4 TOP and not after TOP for those speculators....Remember last time analyst say speculators nvr even take up loan! Jus got enuff for 20% dp! Den try to flip asap!

Anyway overpriced new launches in ccr aso cant move much prior to cm4...especially those in ur orchard area...hehe...after cm4 largi cant sell....tat overpriced project twin peak nid to use jackey to promote...aiyo so desperate....whahahha

Wow! Twin peak from jan till may only got 3 tx!!! So if cm4 really favors new launches, y only sell 3 units nia! Whahahahahahha:D

[teddybear]

If you want to compare apples with oranges then I have no words to say. I have no idea about Seastrand, 8CY vs Livia. May be you can enlighten us? they are within 1km of each other? They have similar facilities? They are of similar quality in build, materials, layout efficiency, appealingness etc? :beats-me-man:

Twin Peaks sell how much? Resale private properties surrounding of Twin Peaks sell how much? Still need to look at quality, layout, facilities, appealingness etc. Isn't Twin Peaks' surrounding sell so much much more cheaper? Even then still can sell 3 units despite such a large price premium, developers must be laughing until their teeth dropped!



I m toking abt ocr new launches now like seastrand, 8cy tats selling well...Subsale like livia r selling higher!

No way cm4 favors new launches....buy new launches is to flip b4 TOP and not after TOP for those speculators....Remember last time analyst say speculators nvr even take up loan! Jus got enuff for 20% dp! Den try to flip asap!

Anyway overpriced new launches in ccr aso cant move much prior to cm4...especially those in ur orchard area...hehe...after cm4 largi cant sell....tat overpriced project twin peak nid to use jackey to promote...aiyo so desperate....whahahha

Wow! Twin peak from jan till may only got 3 tx!!! So if cm4 really favors new launches, y only sell 3 units nia! Whahahahahahha:D

[amk]

Devil, CM4 favors OCR new sale buyers, because most of them are really upgraders looking for own stay, or small time investors who cannot really play CCR ( hope it doesn't sound snobbish, I'm stating fact, nothing against OCR investors, I was, and am still invested in OCR). OCR price quantum is much lower, the very reason ppl flock to it now.

Regulators, the root of all this is excessive liquidity. CM4 made resale much harder in terms of funding, exactly the purpose MBT wanted. For new sale, it's far less effective. A delay of 1 to 2 yrs is very significant, especially when this is an upgrade. This is the ONLY way with a limited budget, because otherwise it's just impossible. Say I have 300k now, I simply cannot buy a 1m resale, but I *can* buy a 1M new, if I'm very confident at my job. Or with 300k, for resale I can only buy a 800k unit, for new I can buy a similar priced 1m. I agree with u, many ppl see the interest rate is going to stay low for a long time. They want to put their savings in property. CM4 just drives them all to new sales.

SpinCity, the ppl concerned here could already have 30 or 40 %, but that's ALL they have. If buying resale, they have to use up ALL of their savings. But if just 20 % now, the rest give me 1 to 2 yr to do, it's far more attractive. Dun underestimate the effect of upfront cash. For example, car loan is the stupidest loan ever, and yet u see so many ppl taking loans. A brand new nice show flat has the same effect of a brand new car for a lot of ppl.

[devilplate]

If you want to compare apples with oranges then I have no words to say. I have no idea about Seastrand, 8CY vs Livia. May be you can enlighten us? they are within 1km of each other? They have similar facilities? They are of similar quality in build, materials, layout efficiency, appealingness etc? :beats-me-man:

Twin Peaks sell how much? Resale private properties surrounding of Twin Peaks sell how much? Still need to look at quality, layout, facilities, appealingness etc. Isn't Twin Peaks' surrounding sell so much much more cheaper? Even then still can sell 3 units despite such a large price premium, developers must be laughing until their teeth dropped!
Y not u show us some examples to justify cm4 favor new launches?

[devilplate]

Now become cm4 favor only ocr launches? Lol

Which r the ocr new launches tat r selling well after jan14 ? R they selling at a much higher premium over nearby resale? R we still seeing overpriced projects like scala n lakefront being snapped up ? Ocr new launches recently really becomes hotter? Prices of nearby resale asking price got close the gap anot? I oredi pointed out seastrand n 8cy as examples....Even tropica r selling similar psf as waterview now whichis next door now....still wana argue? I rest my case...:p

[amk]

u did not get my point.
CM4 dampen all segments. But new sales far less. OCR new sale did not get "hotter". It did not go dead ! Resale volume on the other hand, goes down significantly! The week after Jan, resale ads drop sharply. But look at new sale activity, no let down whatsoever. Look at URA number of transactions, every month jus a trickle of deals. Last year, every month u can scroll a few pages down. I dun understand why u so adamant resale is not affected.

[devilplate]

u did not get my point.
CM4 dampen all segments. But new sales far less. OCR new sale did not get "hotter". It did not go dead ! Resale volume on the other hand, goes down significantly! The week after Jan, resale ads drop sharply. But look at new sale activity, no let down whatsoever. Look at URA number of transactions, every month jus a trickle of deals. Last year, every month u can scroll a few pages down. I dun understand why u so adamant resale is not affected.
Bcoz i walk the ground! Resale in ocr still vy hot for those units asking at reasonable price!

Nvm la...i dunwan to argue liao....very simple....u got ocr ppty now rite? Y not test the market n see it for urself? If u r willing to sell at similar psf as recent tx , u surely got takers!

Pls look at those ocr projects i mentioned....did actual research urself....imagine u wana buy tat area and u compare the resale px nearby wif seastrand,8cy,woodhaven....den u will understand liao

[teddybear]

I have already justified with reasons but since you don't agreed & said:

I m toking abt ocr new launches now like seastrand, 8cy tats selling well...Subsale like livia r selling higher!

Why not you show how Seastrand & 8cy is comparable to livia to jutify your claim that resale now higher than new launch?
I believe because of all the measures favoring new launch for flipping, that is why new launch of comparable quality to resale are selling at significant premiums by as much as 50%! For you Livia 1 eg, I can give you 9 eg where new launch sell at significant premiums to resale! :p



Y not u show us some examples to justify cm4 favor new launches?

[amk]

I know ur point is, resale volume down not because of CM4, but because resale asking px super high, always another 50/100 psf higher than last traded. My point is, if not because of CM4, even at 100psf higher it will still be sold. that's the result of excessive liquidity. But now with CM4, similarly high priced resale is not moving, but new sale is moving.

[teddybear]

How about Thomson Grand to surrounding resale hah? :doh:
I believe there are many such eg but I can't mention all because I don't monitor OCR closely. Still, anyhow find also can prove what you say are exceptions because the condos are not of comparable qualities rather than the norm. :beats-me-man:


Now become cm4 favor only ocr launches? Lol

Which r the ocr new launches tat r selling well after jan14 ? R they selling at a much higher premium over nearby resale? R we still seeing overpriced projects like scala n lakefront being snapped up ? Ocr new launches recently really becomes hotter? Prices of nearby resale asking price got close the gap anot? I oredi pointed out seastrand n 8cy as examples....Even tropica r selling similar psf as waterview now whichis next door now....still wana argue? I rest my case...:p

[devilplate]

I know ur point is, resale volume down not because of CM4, but because resale asking px super high, always another 50/100 psf higher than last traded. My point is, if not because of CM4, even at 100psf higher it will still be sold. that's the result of excessive liquidity. But now with CM4, similarly high priced resale is not moving, but new sale is moving.
B4 cm4, new launches sell vy well despite having more den 20% premium but not now anymore.... Even feo used to priced super high but recently priced so low.... U noe for seastrand, those boutique apt oredi sold for close to 900 psf n seastrand 1st phase from 800psf only!

[devilplate]

How about Thomson Grand to surrounding resale hah? :doh:
I believe there are many such eg but I can't mention all because I don't monitor OCR closely. Still, anyhow find also can prove what you say are exceptions because the condos are not of comparable qualities rather than the norm. :beats-me-man:
After cm4, only those priced to sell ocr new launches selling well....
Anyway, its definitely not conclusive to say cm4 favor new projects.... Without cm, new projects always more sellable den resale..... U see ppl queing overnite etc, but nvr happen b4 for resale

[sh]

There colusion between the developers and the property valuers. How is it that the new launches can go for such high prices, because the valuers support the prices. Otherwise the banks will not grant the housing loans.

If you try to go a bank to ask for a loan based on the new launch price for an adjoining property. The valuer will not support it and the bank will laugh in your face.

Interestingly, the same people who do the valuations for the developers are the same agents selling in the launch..... CONFLICT OF INTEREST....:mad:

KBW.... if you're reading this.... legistrate that the company selling the property cannot value it as well....:)

[devilplate]

I have already justified with reasons but since you don't agreed & said:

I m toking abt ocr new launches now like seastrand, 8cy tats selling well...Subsale like livia r selling higher!

Why not you show how Seastrand & 8cy is comparable to livia to jutify your claim that resale now higher than new launch?
I believe because of all the measures favoring new launch for flipping, that is why new launch of comparable quality to resale are selling at significant premiums by as much as 50%! For you Livia 1 eg, I can give you 9 eg where new launch sell at significant premiums to resale! :p
New launch has been selling vy well at much higher premium b4 cm4....

I suggest u do some research on the ground b4 making sweeping comments

[teddybear]

Thomson Grand priced to sell? :doh:

Without CM, new projects already flippers favorite. After CM4 even more no brainers for flippers to only target new launch! ::rolleyes:

Did you ever see the queue overnight for new launch during bear market? :p
Resale sure no queue because have to prearrange time, always got so many agents fishing for deals, always got those adv super low price to fish buyers contacts but not price owners want. These agts spoilt the market & scare off potential buyers into believing that there are lowest price units available why pay more? If seller has no holding power, after adv for sale for >6 mths & they will sell at low price!
I not so stupid. I always fix my price & wait & wait until buyer hit my target, in general after adv for 1-2 years. Those bloody idiot agts who always try adv super low ones all give up liao after cannot persuade me to sell low & all those who want to sell low would have sold & the rest can hold ones start to use my benchmark asking price. :p


After cm4, only those priced to sell ocr new launches selling well....
Anyway, its definitely not conclusive to say cm4 favor new projects.... Without cm, new projects always more sellable den resale..... U see ppl queing overnite etc, but nvr happen b4 for resale

[teddybear]

New launch still can sell at significant premium to resale next door & at high volume as compared to before CM4.
On the other hand, resale volume crash like stone into ocean immediately after CM4 & price become stagnant. So it is very obvious CM4 hit resale much more than new launch!
If you don't agree, show the hard data to convince everyone here that what i said is not true? If can't show means you are making sweeping statements instead? :p



New launch has been selling vy well at much higher premium b4 cm4....

I suggest u do some research on the ground b4 making sweeping comments

[devilplate]

Tg one off case ah? Diff attributes? Compare orange wif apple? Whaha.... Tg selling well now? Really? Lol

New launches not selling well due to overpricing blah blah.... Den turn ard n say those selling well due to cm4 favoring new launches.... Win liao lor

[devilplate]

New launch still can sell at significant premium to resale next door & at high volume as compared to before CM4.
On the other hand, resale volume crash like stone into ocean immediately after CM4 & price become stagnant. So it is very obvious CM4 hit resale much more than new launch!
If you don't agree, show the hard data to convince everyone here that what i said is not true? If can't show means you are making sweeping statements instead? :p
U r the one who say cm4 favors new launches... U shd b the one showing hard datas

I m saying ur claim is not conclusive so now u goto convince me n not the other way

[teddybear]

How true that is! I go see new launch & bank can match valuation to selling price of developers. Then, I go see that condo nearby new launch & bank valued them at 20-30% below the new launch when that resale condo is FH, <10 years old, quality used is better, no useless big big planter areas!


There colusion between the developers and the property valuers. How is it that the new launches can go for such high prices, because the valuers support the prices. Otherwise the banks will not grant the housing loans.

If you try to go a bank to ask for a loan based on the new launch price for an adjoining property. The valuer will not support it and the bank will laugh in your face.

Interestingly, the same people who do the valuations for the developers are the same agents selling in the launch..... CONFLICT OF INTEREST....:mad:

KBW.... if you're reading this.... legistrate that the company selling the property cannot value it as well....:)

[teddybear]

So you can't prove what you say? I am anti-OCR so what ever I provide will be biased (in your opinion). Why not you provide real hard data that can be in your favor since you are so supportive of OCR & buying new launch & said CM4 didn't hit resale much more new launch?
Since my claim not conclusive, yours are even worse by just stating your opinions only, why not provide real hard data to support what you claimed?

Everyone here waiting because you are so adamant that you are right but you can't provide any real data to support what you say? :banghead:


U r the one who say cm4 favors new launches... U shd b the one showing hard datas

I m saying ur claim is not conclusive so now u goto convince me n not the other way

[andy]

U r the one who say cm4 favors new launches... U shd b the one showing hard datas

I m saying ur claim is not conclusive so now u goto convince me n not the other way

How about QE2 and QE2.5 favours new launches irregardless of CMX?

CM4 strangles resale?

[devilplate]

So you can't prove what you say? I am anti-OCR so what ever I provide will be biased (in your opinion). Why not you provide real hard data that can be in your favor since you are so supportive of OCR & buying new launch & said CM4 didn't hit resale much more new launch?
Lol...did i support ocr n new launch? I dun hf to prove anything.... U make ur claim n u goto convince ur theory wif hard facts ...

[devilplate]

How about QE2 and QE2.5 favours new launches irregardless of CMX?

CM4 strangles resale?
Duno... U goto prove it wif hard facts n den we discuss further

[devilplate]

Lets make it clear, i disagree with amk n teddy as both of them claimed cm4 favors new launch....their reasoning r non conclusive in my opinion....

Rewind bck, i did mentioned tat mm will get even more popular after cm4 when ltv reduced further to 60% n 4yrs ssd impact high end ccr the most

[DaytonaSS]

Lets make it clear, i disagree with amk n teddy as both of them claimed cm4 favors new launch....their reasoning r non conclusive in my opinion....
devil, in my opinion.... SSD CM4 affects resale more, rather than favors new launch. we look at both angles, supply and demand.

First CM4 removes a layer of supply , as some home owners doesnt want to sell and "upgrade" as they will be subjected to 4 years restriction. As rental is still good and loan interest is low, there is no incentive to rush into CM4.

This situation does not affect developers new launch supply. As more GLS comes up, supply can only increase.

2nd) Demand- Resale mentality is always squeeze blood from stone. Everyone is looking for firesale, everyone in theory wants to buy when market crash at lowest point. Sellers look at nearby launches and want even higher price from what they already asking. The 2 parties doesnt meet. Buyers except CM4 to crash prices, instead they are greeted with higher asking prices supported by incredible OCR new launch prices. Unrealistic expectations of price(pple shouting crash when economic conditions are +++) and more eg, pple wanna buy CCR properties @ $1k psf, even bring cheque book to showroom wanna buy at $1kpsf

New launches- 30% higher than resales but pple still buy, did CM4 stop them? Proof is in URA website. 6 months into CM4, the selling never stop, and buying continues. Demand for brand new is always there.

As CM4 applies to selling tax. Investors, more likely, pple whom buy to rent out and hedge against inflation and getting a yield, are more likely to think twice about getting into something which ties down their $$$ for 4 years. This group definitely wont buy new launch for sure, cos no yield and tied down $$$. Devil probably belongs to this group now.

Own stay buyers in new launches somehow brainwash themselves they are buying new to upgrade(own stay) in 4 years time , to them this tax doesnt really affect them.

So in conclusion, i think CM4 affects resale more in both demand and supply dimension . It doesnt favour which side more as it CM4 applies to both resale and new when one is selling.

[devilplate]

Will b interesting if someone can show stats on the % of buyers buying new launches without enough cash for 40% downpayment

[teddybear]

Ok lah, somebody provides some detailed info on OCR transactions for 2011 Q1 after CM4 vs before CM4. Apparently, CM4 has negligible effects on new launch vs resale, as we also know resale transactions dropped signficantly after CM4. Need I say more? :beats-me-man:

Effects of CM4 and seems to make people prefer lower absolute priced properties (courtesy of lowering LTV), paying even up to $1500 psf for MMs in OCRs VS the fact that they can also actually bought resale at $1500 psf in CCR at much more convenient locations. As such, effect of CM4 increased demand for OCR properties, precisely the area that govt is going to tame isn't it? >$2000 psf is the norm in prime & luxury segment, and it has stagant for many years. $1000 psf is the new norm now for OCR! All the new CMs supposed to cool this OCR signficiant price rise isn't it? Did all the CMs achieve what they are suppose to achieve? :doh:
On the other hand, the CMs has helped in shifting potential resale buyers to become new launch buyers! If I am the land sellers, I will be very happy to keep selling at the record land sale prices! Mua ha ha ha! The CMs have helped to encourage more potential buyers to buy new launch than resale (since resale go into individuals' pocket while new launch >90% go into you know who's pocket?) :scared-3:

Effects of CM4 shifted even more buyers & flippers & speculators to new launch vs buying resale. :rolleyes:



Lets make it clear, i disagree with amk n teddy as both of them claimed cm4 favors new launch....their reasoning r non conclusive in my opinion....

Rewind bck, i did mentioned tat mm will get even more popular after cm4 when ltv reduced further to 60% n 4yrs ssd impact high end ccr the most



http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC110708-0000127/Lets-take-a-closer-look-at-the-numbers

Let's take a closer look at the numbers

Ku Swee Yong dives into the details of the OCR to get a clearer view of where property prices in Singapore are trending

by Ku Swee Yong

02:25 PM Jul 08, 2011


As a follow up to "Massive home supply to hit outskirts" (Today, June 24), I'd like to take a closer look at the residential transactions in the Outside Central Region (OCR). In the June 24 commentary, I was concerned that "the proportion of units in the outskirts and mid-tier locations of Singapore will rise from 67 per cent to 74 per cent. Now, the percentage rise may seem mild but in absolute numbers, we can expect 8,686 units to be completed within the Outside Central Region and Rest of Central Region (RCR) in 2013, 13,014 units in 2014 and 14,510 units in 2015".

When taken together with the potential increase in supply of HDB flats in the new towns, there is a worry that demand may not keep pace with supply. Most of the properties that were launched for sale this year - assuming construction also begins this year - will contribute to completions in 2014 and 2015.

What's more, even tiny one-bedroom and studio units in the OCR have recently set and surpassed price records, on a per square foot basis.

Since the bottom of the market in the second quarter of 2009, the price index for OCR has risen slightly faster than the index for the Core Central Region (CCR). But these residential indices are merely derived numbers, with many assumptions behind them. While useful for tracking broad market directions and the relative magnitudes of rises and falls, indices provide no indications of the number of transactions nor the price per square foot of the average transaction.

To understand the price movements in the OCR segment, let's dive into the details to get a clearer view of where prices are trending and where the risks might be, if any.

In the past six quarters from the last quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of this year, there were about 20,000 transactions in this region (see tables on the next page for a list of locations that fall within the OCR). We're not looking at data from the second quarter as full data probably will be available only after August.

The total number of caveats of non-landed private residential properties filed in the first quarter of this year in the OCR was 3,076 and 1,030 (33.5 per cent) of these transactions were for properties priced above S$1,000psf. These transactions included developers' sales, sub-sales and resales.

Within those 3,076 transactions, 52 per cent involved properties that have yet to be completed. Given the increased Seller Stamp Duties, developers' sales, rather than sub-sales, accounted for the bulk of these transactions.

As you can see from the charts above, the total number of transactions priced at more than S$1,000psf grew strongly from 183 in the last quarter of 2009 to more than 1,000 transactions in the two most recent quarters.

In terms of proportion, the number of transactions priced at more than S$1,000psf rose from 7.1 per cent to 33.5 per cent.

What's more, the share of uncompleted properties transacted increased from 33 per cent to 52 per cent, reflecting the strength of new sales in the outskirts of Singapore in the last 18 months.



Even at a higher price point ...

Now, let's slice the data at a higher price point of, say, S$1,300psf. At this price level, an investor might well have considered older properties in Districts 9 and 10, but yet we see a clear increase in the number and proportion of transactions. Perhaps older properties in District 9 and 10 have a larger strata area, so investors would have to fork out a larger investment amount. This may be why investors prefer to pay a higher per square foot price level (but lower total investment amount) in the OCR.

Or it could it be because the investors simply did not do enough legwork in scouting for good-value gems in the central districts?



S$1,000psf - the new normal?

Some years ago, analysts forecast that mass market residential properties will rise to an average of S$1,000psf, thanks to rising household incomes and rising HDB prices. An upgrader who has accumulated a lot of equity in his 10-year-old HDB flat would be able to afford a private condominium if he sold the HDB flat, added some cash or CPF funds, and took on a new mortgage.

According to the data, it seems the mass market will be reaching that point soon.

While the size of the average unit shrunk from 1,265 sq ft to 1,131 sq ft in the OCR, the average value of each transaction increased from S$916,153 in the fourth quarter of 2009 to S$989,880 in the first quarter of this year.

As a result, the average price per square foot jumped from S$724 to S$875, a 20-per-cent leap over six quarters. And in each quarter, we see that peak transacted prices in the supposedly "mass-market" segment to have exceeded S$1,400psf.

Given that 33 per cent of transactions within the OCR in the first quarter of this year exceeded S$1,000psf and that the average price transacted was S$875psf, it seems that we are not too far off from reaching the new normal.

For those who have already purchased in the OCR at prices near S$1,000psf, perhaps there is still some room for capital gains as the average rises from S$875psf to S$1,000psf (another 20-per-cent rise).

For some who have purchased at the S$1,300psf mark and above, the price upside may be limited in the medium term while the mass market grapples with the strong supply in the outskirts from 2013 to 2015.

For the rest who have yet to invest but who are seeing the new normal in the mass market rise to S$1,000psf, perhaps we should ponder about whether the new normal in Districts 9 and 10 deserves to be S$2,000psf or S$2,500psf and the new normal for the prime district of Orchard Road to be even higher at S$5,000psf, S$6,000psf or S$7,000psf?



The writer is the founder of real estate agency International Property Advisor, which provides services to high-net-worth individuals. He is the author of Real Estate Riches: Understanding Singapore's Property Market in a Volatile Economy.

[howgozit]

Ok lah, somebody provides some detailed info on OCR transactions for 2011 Q1 after CM4 vs before CM4. Apparently, CM4 has negligible effects on new launch vs resale, as we also know resale transactions dropped signficantly after CM4. Need I say more? :beats-me-man:

Effects of CM4 and seems to make people prefer lower absolute priced properties (courtesy of lowering LTV), paying even up to $1500 psf for MMs in OCRs VS the fact that they can also actually bought resale at $1500 psf in CCR at much more convenient locations. As such, effect of CM4 increased demand for OCR properties, precisely the area that govt is going to tame isn't it? >$2000 psf is the norm in prime & luxury segment, and it has stagant for many years. $1000 psf is the new norm now for OCR! All the new CMs supposed to cool this OCR signficiant price rise isn't it? Did all the CMs achieve what they are suppose to achieve? :doh:
On the other hand, the CMs has helped in shifting potential resale buyers to become new launch buyers! If I am the land sellers, I will be very happy to keep selling at the record land sale prices! Mua ha ha ha! The CMs have helped to encourage more potential buyers to buy new launch than resale (since resale go into individuals' pocket while new launch >90% go into you know who's pocket?) :scared-3:

Effects of CM4 shifted even more buyers & flippers & speculators to new launch vs buying resale. :rolleyes:

Forgive me for saying so, I still don't see how CM4 favours new launch.

To me, you have not explained anything, you have just said it is so and that is that.

[devilplate]

it seems tat teddy goto admit tat cm4 so far got no negative impact on MM n OCR ppty....

i remember he said cm4 will not affect ccr bcoz ccr buyers traditionally dun take much loan n some of them paid in full....whereas, 60% ltv will impact negatively on ocr especially Mm as cm4 weed out speculator n ocr buyers will no longer afford the 40% downpayment....

den there is another theory tat majority ocr buyer only have 20% DP n will save the next 20% within the next 1.5yrs.....well, i dun rule out the possibility totally but to say Majority does tat really unbelievable.....it cud be just a handful of them.....

[Regulators]

With the 4 year holding period due to SSD, agents of new launches are telling all the buyers that it is better to buy new launches over resale coz both cases you cannot cash out in 5 years anyway. Also with new launches going at only a slight premium above resale, it is a no brainer for many buyers to choose new launches. Some buyers have also been psychoed to think that with the subsequent GLS all over the island, it will only boost the prices of their new purchases. If you ask why miltonia is selling so well, it is because the land beside is marked residential development and the prices will go even higher, same rationale for treehouse etc. But the important question now is how high can it go? FEO has set a benchmark for practically the whole of singapore eg hillview, bukit panjang, east coast and even yishun (greenwich). If you remember Yang Li Bing (ex-wife of Li Nan Xing) who happens to work for huttons now , even she was convinced in the potential of new launches that she bought a unit at Miltonia


Forgive me for saying so, I still don't see how CM4 favours new launch.

To me, you have not explained anything, you have just said it is so and that is that.

[howgozit]

Thanks for explaining. Heard the sales pitch by the agents at the showrooms before too, but I am still not getting it.

I am looking at this in a very simplistic view. As a buyer why would I pay more for a new launch when a I can get a resale nearby for a lower price? Plus I can capitalise on my purchase immediately rather than wait for completion whether to rent out or to stay. This is true regardless of CM4.

If I buy a new launch and I try to sell it 4 years later, it has become a resale, so what's the difference if I had bought a resale in the first place?
How does CM4 push the price up?

Why should the GLS all over island (which in effect add more supply) help to push the new launch price up? I think the developers are just trying their luck and fishing for a higher price. Sellers are cleverly pricing their properties just slightly below.

I just can't figure it out.

[ysyap]

Thanks for explaining. Heard the sales pitch by the agents at the showrooms before too, but I am still not getting it.

I am looking at this in a very simplistic view. As a buyer why would I pay more for a new launch when a I can get a resale nearby for a lower price? Plus I can capitalise on my purchase immediately rather than wait for completion whether to rent out or to stay. This is true regardless of CM4.

If I buy a new launch and I try to sell it 4 years later, it has become a resale, so what's the difference if I had bought a resale in the first place?
How does CM4 push the price up?

Why should the GLS all over island (which in effect add more supply) help to push the new launch price up? I think the developers are just trying their luck and fishing for a higher price. Sellers are cleverly pricing their properties just slightly below.

I just can't figure it out.Its housing economics. Supply and demand. If demand is there, you can always push the prices up a little, just enough to feel good as a buyer but not enough to attract no attention... talk to Sim Lian, they can tell you more... :D

[howgozit]

Its housing economics. Supply and demand. If demand is there, you can always push the prices up a little, just enough to feel good as a buyer but not enough to attract no attention... talk to Sim Lian, they can tell you more... :D

Ahh.. I see.. its all about marketing. Perceived market value.:)

Price it as much as people are willing to pay. Just like the ridiculous prices of Levi's/Dockers in Singapore compared to the US.

New launch agents are going all out to convince prospective buyers that the CM4 favours new developments. I still can't see that point of view, be it MM, OCR, CCR...etc. whatever. Maybe there is something in it that I am just missing.

The way I see it, people who buy now must hold a long term view (at least 4yrs). For investors, this is too long to tie up that kind of cash. The next 2-3 years in the finacial market presents the kind of volatilty that can possibly make more money than putting money in a sitting duck of a new launch.

Maybe somebody can enlighten me. Thanks!

[Regulators]

Property is a long term investment, the days of buying to to flip is over. If you are thinking of quick short term gain, you can go for stocks or trade in forex. If you want a steady stream of income from rental or looking to enjoy passive income and retire early, property is the way to go.
Ahh.. I see.. its all about marketing. Perceived market value.:)

Price it as much as people are willing to pay. Just like the ridiculous prices of Levi's/Dockers in Singapore compared to the US.

New launch agents are going all out to convince prospective buyers that the CM4 favours new developments. I still can't see that point of view, be it MM, OCR, CCR...etc. whatever. Maybe there is something in it that I am just missing.

The way I see it, people who buy now must hold a long term view (at least 4yrs). For investors, this is too long to tie up that kind of cash. The next 2-3 years in the finacial market presents the kind of volatilty that can possibly make more money than putting money in a sitting duck of a new launch.

Maybe somebody can enlighten me. Thanks!

[devilplate]

With the 4 year holding period due to SSD, agents of new launches are telling all the buyers that it is better to buy new launches over resale coz both cases you cannot cash out in 5 years anyway. Also with new launches going at only a slight premium above resale, it is a no brainer for many buyers to choose new launches. Some buyers have also been psychoed to think that with the subsequent GLS all over the island, it will only boost the prices of their new purchases. If you ask why miltonia is selling so well, it is because the land beside is marked residential development and the prices will go even higher, same rationale for treehouse etc. But the important question now is how high can it go? FEO has set a benchmark for practically the whole of singapore eg hillview, bukit panjang, east coast and even yishun (greenwich). If you remember Yang Li Bing (ex-wife of Li Nan Xing) who happens to work for huttons now , even she was convinced in the potential of new launches that she bought a unit at Miltonia

4yrs ssd really makes it better to buy new launches? I aso dun get it....I tink it actually favor resale market and tats y resellers seize the opportunity n ask sky high px now....reseller mentality now is sell only when there is a gd offer bcoz replacement cost n penalty simply outweigh the benefit of selling. So buyers turn to new launch instead lor...

Perhaps some only got 20% cash now n at the same time trying to sell away their current hse or other investment ppty....so hoot new launch first n den still got 1.5yrs time to sell the other ppty? Amk claimed many trying to save tat 20% within nxt 1.5yrs....i really curious wats the % of buyer tat falls into this category

[Regulators]

New launches set the momentum for resellers to ask for the sky and later new launches take advantage of the high resale prices and neighbouring new launches to price their units higher but yet within reach. To me this relationship is symbiotic, and a high liquidity low interest environment is like steroids
4yrs ssd really makes it better to buy new launches? I aso dun get it....I tink it actually favor resale market and tats y resellers seize the opportunity n ask sky high px now....reseller mentality now is sell only when there is a gd offer bcoz replacement cost n penalty simply outweigh the benefit of selling. So buyers turn to new launch instead lor...

Perhaps some only got 20% cash now n at the same time trying to sell away their current hse or other investment ppty....so hoot new launch first n den still got 1.5yrs time to sell the other ppty? Amk claimed many trying to save tat 20% within nxt 1.5yrs....i really curious wats the % of buyer tat falls into this category

[devilplate]

One thing is for sure....flippers r out of the game now

[SpinCity]

4yrs ssd really makes it better to buy new launches? I aso dun get it....I tink it actually favor resale market and tats y resellers seize the opportunity n ask sky high px now....reseller mentality now is sell only when there is a gd offer bcoz replacement cost n penalty simply outweigh the benefit of selling. So buyers turn to new launch instead lor...

Perhaps some only got 20% cash now n at the same time trying to sell away their current hse or other investment ppty....so hoot new launch first n den still got 1.5yrs time to sell the other ppty? Amk claimed many trying to save tat 20% within nxt 1.5yrs....i really curious wats the % of buyer tat falls into this category


Conceptually and in a more straight forward, or even simplistic, way without further and detail analysis on the cash flow outlay (including mortgage installments/rental income/maintenance/property tax) , CM4 (4Y ssd + 60% LTV) has less impact on new launches because:

1) 40% downpayment for new launches is stretched over 1.5 year, vs immediate outflow of 40% hard cold cash up front for resale

2) 4Y SSD starting from the day that OTP is exercised, some people's perception of 4Y SSD is that for resales it is a bloody 4 full years, while for new launches it is only 1 year after TOP. However, this perception does not really have any solid basis and more like a "feel-less-terrible" effect

I would think CM4 as a whole is slightly more favorable toward new launches due to the 60% LTV

[howgozit]

New launches set the momentum for resellers to ask for the sky and later new launches take advantage of the high resale prices and neighbouring new launches to price their units higher but yet within reach. To me this relationship is symbiotic, and a high liquidity low interest environment is like steroids

Agree, it is a vicious cycle and about the high liquidity/low interest rate environment.

But it seems the buyers of the new launches are worse off if they are paying the leading high price set by the developers. When they do sell, they are re-sellers like everyone else.

[Condo Kaiser]

there will be peple willing to enter the market at any price point given the economy is doing alright... people feel the jobs are quite secure so will try to get in the game fearing being left further behind...

they need to understand property has cycles...

[teddybear]

Now the flippers are only in new launch! Their target is to sell just before or during TOP! Heard too many of such buyers from my agents. :scared-1:


One thing is for sure....flippers r out of the game now

[Condo Kaiser]

Ya imagine thousands of these flippers trying to offload their units 3-4 years from now...

property prices need to go up at least 10% more for them to break even after BSD SSD and interest payments etc.

not all of them will come out of this alot richer...

[devilplate]

Now the flippers are only in new launch! Their target is to sell just before or during TOP! Heard too many of such buyers from my agents. :scared-1:
Tot tats vy common ?

Many projects tat gona TOP soon got lots of sellers now....

Buy new launch mentality, if can sell for gd profit....sell! Cannot den rent out....buy resale aso the same, prices shoot up liao, sell.....

Many of us here aso same....if profit is vy tempting, dun hf the intention to sell aso tink of selling lor....paper profit is imaginary until u sell it rite

[devilplate]

Ya imagine thousands of these flippers trying to offload their units 3-4 years from now...

property prices need to go up at least 10% more for them to break even after BSD SSD and interest payments etc.

not all of them will come out of this alot richer...
In a way its gd isnt it.....we got this golden window period to sell before they r able to! Whahaha

If not always any project sold out, the next day got ppl wana flip liao....haha...now at least goto wait 3-4yrs later.....less supply! Whaha

[teddybear]

Is that very common in your own words? Strange, why so common until MND doesn't know and can't come out with rules and regulations to deter such flippers which they say they want to target? They are that useless or??? Coffee shop talks ring ring ring? :beats-me-man:


Tot tats vy common ?

Many projects tat gona TOP soon got lots of sellers now....

Buy new launch mentality, if can sell for gd profit....sell! Cannot den rent out....buy resale aso the same, prices shoot up liao, sell.....

Many of us here aso same....if profit is vy tempting, dun hf the intention to sell aso tink of selling lor....paper profit is imaginary until u sell it rite

[devilplate]

Is that very common in your own words? Strange, why so common until MND doesn't know and can't come out with rules and regulations to deter such flippers which they say they want to target? They are that useless or??? Coffee shop talks ring ring ring? :beats-me-man:
Not common? Pls go n browse pptyguru on those projects tat going to TOP or jus TOP

those projects r launched way b4 all these CM

[howgozit]

Actually, I am not sure if selling after 3-4 years qualifies as flipping.

Leading up to the epic downturn in 1997, flipping was rampant and flippers were highly leveraged, holding several properties with minimum payment. I remember people were selling queue numbers to property launches and even these were flipped. Now that's real flipping...:ashamed1:

[devilplate]

Conceptually and in a more straight forward, or even simplistic, way without further and detail analysis on the cash flow outlay (including mortgage installments/rental income/maintenance/property tax) , CM4 (4Y ssd + 60% LTV) has less impact on new launches because:

1) 40% downpayment for new launches is stretched over 1.5 year, vs immediate outflow of 40% hard cold cash up front for resale

2) 4Y SSD starting from the day that OTP is exercised, some people's perception of 4Y SSD is that for resales it is a bloody 4 full years, while for new launches it is only 1 year after TOP. However, this perception does not really have any solid basis and more like a "feel-less-terrible" effect

I would think CM4 as a whole is slightly more favorable toward new launches due to the 60% LTV

Analysts been toking abt low int rate fueled ppty demand....so buyer shd look at ready projects to get immediate returns on their banana notes? Buy new launches dun benefit from the low int rate now and their 20% cash got zero returns....put in fd at least got close to 1%? Hehe

Ps repeat again: 4yrs ssd prevents flipping which took away the main benefit of buying new launches

[teddybear]

Buying with no intention to take physical possession of the property, if this is not flipping then what is? That is why the volume of sub-sale transactions has always been used as a gauge of how many flipping taking place (and closedly monitored by URA). Based on what is happening now, sub-sale transactions will shot through the roof in 2014-2015! :scared-1:


Actually, I am not sure if selling after 3-4 years qualifies as flipping.

Leading up to the epic downturn in 1997, flipping was rampant and flippers were highly leveraged, holding several properties with minimum payment. I remember people were selling queue numbers to property launches and even these were flipped. Now that's real flipping...:ashamed1:

[devilplate]

Actually, I am not sure if selling after 3-4 years qualifies as flipping.

Leading up to the epic downturn in 1997, flipping was rampant and flippers were highly leveraged, holding several properties with minimum payment. I remember people were selling queue numbers to property launches and even these were flipped. Now that's real flipping...:ashamed1:
Same tot....

I suspect govt only consider flipping if the ppty is bot n sold within 4yrs....tats y they set a 4yrs ssd to prevent ppl from flipping....

In 07, the moment a project is fully sold, flipper trying to flip liao....make 30-50k aso flip ar! U see the sail, some units actually changed hands more den 4 times b4 TOP! Tats wat i call flip flip roti prata..hehe

[devilplate]

Buying with no intention to take physical possession of the property, if this is not flipping then what is? That is why the volume of sub-sale transactions has always been used as a gauge of how many flipping taking place (and closedly monitored by URA). Based on what is happening now, sub-sale transactions will shot through the roof in 2014-2015! :scared-1:

Ppty sold after TOP and b4 CSC also considered as subsale

[teddybear]

Yah lor, those new launch buyers appear so stupid to you (as you made them out to be), are they?
1) don't benefit low interest rate
2) 20% cash got no returns and no rental income
3) need to wait for 4years to TOP before can touch their property they bought!

BUT advantages :rolleyes: :
1) people pay 40% downpayment immediate for a property (resale), they pay 20% immediate and the other 20% pay 2 years later.
2) the take possession of vacant brand new property, good for flipping!
3) If want to flip, don't want to take physical possession of the property, but hit with 4years SSD not much effect (vs resale) since they don't want to take possession of the property anyway and can flip when near TOP 4years later.

Mua ha ha! They don't seem so stupid after all! They are really smart aren't they? :beats-me-man:



Analysts been toking abt low int rate fueled ppty demand....so buyer shd look at ready projects to get immediate returns on their banana notes? Buy new launches dun benefit from the low int rate now and their 20% cash got zero returns....put in fd at least got close to 1%? Hehe

[devilplate]

Teddy, can i say u bey song govt give developer added advantage over resale market?

Without any cm, developer oredi got advantage by selling off the plans! last time worse, got deferred payment! Tats the best for flippers!

In order to be fair to resale market, developer can only sell upon TOP:D

[teddybear]

Wah, you are confirming that coffee shops talks are true? :beats-me-man:



Teddy, can i say u bey song govt give developer added advantage over resale market?

Without any cm, developer oredi got advantage by selling off the plans! last time worse, got deferred payment! Tats the best for flippers!

In order to be fair to resale market, developer can only sell upon TOP:D

[devilplate]

Wah, you are confirming that coffee shops talks are true? :beats-me-man:
Wat they toking abt?:confused:

But it will nvr happen la...

Mabe Govt shd aso ban subsale on top of 4yrs ssd....so those who bot from new launches can only sell after csc.....hehe

Den resale huat argh!:cheers6:

[amk]

Devil maybe we can do a poll, and see if most ppl agree CM4 favors new sale, ( or "affects resale more" ) ;)

Lighten up this a bit. U still looking to buy ? I'm out for the moment already. Not selling not buying. Going in equities now

[devilplate]

Devil maybe we can do a poll, and see if most ppl agree CM4 favors new sale, ( or "affects resale more" ) ;)

Lighten up this a bit. U still looking to buy ? I'm out for the moment already. Not selling not buying. Going in equities now
I ever since mid last yr oredi stop buying....might consider selling if prices up another 20% lor;) i still walking the ground...window shopping showflats....get the feel of the sentiment on the ground....u can try putting ur ready unit for sale n u will agree wif me tat its hot hot! :D

I still dare not enter equities yet.....:ashamed1: :scared-5:

[azeoprop]

Yah loh, if I were to sell now, I can't upgrade or buy back for similar cash upfront....Thanks to the 60% loan thing. Somemore kena the 4 years ssd. :(

[amk]

20% I also sell. Then I will know 1st hand ha ha.

But I doubt OCR can run another 20 lah. For now leave it rented no big deal. I'm happy to be proven wrong though :D

Equities small small play lah. Some times just for fun to see my gut feeling rite or not

[ysyap]

Yah loh, if I were to sell now, I can't upgrade or buy back for similar cash upfront....Thanks to the 60% loan thing. Somemore kena the 4 years ssd. :(If own stay then no need to worry abt 4 yr SSD. Just enter to buy. It's the investment that is :doh: . Must choose wisely. :o New or resale?

[devilplate]

20% I also sell. Then I will know 1st hand ha ha.

But I doubt OCR can run another 20 lah. For now leave it rented no big deal. I'm happy to be proven wrong though :D

Equities small small play lah. Some times just for fun to see my gut feeling rite or not
Actually i dun hf any ocr to sell....waiting for rcr n ccr to shine leh

[howgozit]

Buying with no intention to take physical possession of the property, if this is not flipping then what is?

Ha ha... ok you have a point.

I guess the term "flipping" is viewed differently by different people here. But globally the term is generally coined for the short time between transactions. Hence it's called a "flip", at 4 years its more like a "toss".

Btw, flipping can also occur on old projects as well so it may not show in subsale transactions.

Anyway what we think "flipping" means does not really matter. What matters is what MND think it means and what MND is trying to curb. And MND thinks of flipping as the short transaction interval.

Why? Bcoz what flipping does is to bring on an inflationary pressure on the price. At every transaction, the flipper adds a price increment. If there are no restrictions the prices will runaway as every flipper adds in a new increment in a very short time. This is exactly what is happening before CM4.(esp. in a favourable credit environment like now),

With CM4, the "flipper" as you call them can only add one increment to the price after 4 years and after that another 4 years before the next buyer can add another increment. 8 years!! for only 2 increments. If people still think prices will runaway like this, then go ahead, good luck!

To that end, I think MND has achieved its goal of curbing the effects flipping with CM4. In their view the inflationary pressure by flippers is seriously curtailed.

[devilplate]

Ha ha... ok you have a point.

I guess the term "flipping" is viewed differently by different people here. But globally the term is generally coined for the short time between transactions. Hence it's called a "flip", at 4 years its more like a "toss".

Btw, flipping can also occur on old projects as well so it may not show in subsale transactions.

Anyway what we think "flipping" means does not really matter. What matters is what MND think it means and what MND is trying to curb. And MND thinks of flipping as the short transaction interval.

Why? Bcoz what flipping does is to bring on an inflationary pressure on the price. At every transaction, the flipper adds a price increment. If there are no restrictions the prices will runaway as every flipper adds in a new increment in a very short time. This is exactly what is happening before CM4.(esp. in a favourable credit environment like now),

With CM4, the "flipper" as you call them can only add one increment to the price after 4 years and after that another 4 years before the next buyer can add another increment. 8 years!! for only 2 increments. If people still think prices will runaway like this, then go ahead, good luck!

To that end, I think MND has achieved its goal of curbing the effects flipping with CM4. In their view the inflationary pressure by flippers is seriously curtailed.
Totally agreed:cheers6:

[amk]

So no more CM ? HK did 50% LTV and no foreigner loan, SG can still out do them u know, if MBT style ;)

[devilplate]

So no more CM ? HK did 50% LTV and no foreigner loan, SG can still out do them u know, if MBT style ;)
How come ccr ppty in HK still doing well despite 50%ltv?

[ysyap]

So no more CM ? HK did 50% LTV and no foreigner loan, SG can still out do them u know, if MBT style ;)The fact of the matter is KBW style is simply so different from MBT style. Does MBT blog? Hmmm... anyway, KBW hasn't really reveal the plans he has up his sleeve. He kept giving assurance of knowing the ground plus reviewing the income ceiling plus the DBSS flat type. No action yet so must give a bit more time to know how he'll steer the MND... hope that more is done against developers and agents and not buyers and sellers only as with other CMs. :p

[devilplate]

The fact of the matter is KBW style is simply so different from MBT style. Does MBT blog? Hmmm... anyway, KBW hasn't really reveal the plans he has up his sleeve. He kept giving assurance of knowing the ground plus reviewing the income ceiling plus the DBSS flat type. No action yet so must give a bit more time to know how he'll steer the MND... hope that more is done against developers and agents and not buyers and sellers only as with other CMs. :p
Actually if developers cant sell, resale px will be affected too....

I m more den happy to see developers selling well at record px rather den the situation now....

[teddybear]

Because they don't have 4 years 16% SSD! :doh:
So HK policy is less harsh.


How come ccr ppty in HK still doing well despite 50%ltv?

[devilplate]

Because they don't have 4 years 16% SSD! :doh:
So HK policy is less harsh.
Ya hor...they only 2yrs ssd rite?

No wonder u virtually shifting ur money out of sg

[DaytonaSS]

Ps repeat again: 4yrs ssd prevents flipping which took away the main benefit of buying new launches

then its clear y pple are still buying~~! they are buying so they can stay in a new "nice" showroom glam factor house in few years time while they save up!!! Thats y OCR launches chonging!!! Pple are buying to stay near parents!

Investors will go resale for immediate rental gratification.

[Regulators]

which part of singapore are you walking the ground now? I am looking to get another ocr, new launch ocr if the price and location right or resale ocr if price and rental yield hard to resist.
I ever since mid last yr oredi stop buying....might consider selling if prices up another 20% lor;) i still walking the ground...window shopping showflats....get the feel of the sentiment on the ground....u can try putting ur ready unit for sale n u will agree wif me tat its hot hot! :D

I still dare not enter equities yet.....:ashamed1: :scared-5:

[devilplate]

which part of singapore are you walking the ground now? I am looking to get another ocr, new launch ocr if the price and location right or resale ocr if price and rental yield hard to resist.
Now ocr resale vy tough....u may wana look at rcr or ccr? Sm1 mention martin plc res.... I find interlace not bad

[SpinCity]

Analysts been toking abt low int rate fueled ppty demand....so buyer shd look at ready projects to get immediate returns on their banana notes? Buy new launches dun benefit from the low int rate now and their 20% cash got zero returns....put in fd at least got close to 1%? Hehe

Ps repeat again: 4yrs ssd prevents flipping which took away the main benefit of buying new launches
Agree that resale properties can generate immediate rental income, but at the current price level, it is relatively hard to find a deal that gives you more than 3% gross yield.

Without further clarification from you, I assume what you meant by flipping is the sell the property after a relatively short period of time from the day of purchase.
4ys does not prevent flipping, it just increase the cost of flipping, and in this regard it is fair to both resale and new launches. Actually, combined with 60% LTV, it actually favors new launches.
For example,
a new launch unit of 1.5m, down payment of 20% at exercising option, 20% 1.5 years after, the rest of 60% spread over the next 1.5 years with bank loan for 30y at 1.5%
a resale unit of the same 1.5m, down payment of 40% at exercising option, 60% bank loan 30y at 1.5%, gross rental yield 3% at 3750 per month, maintenance 300 per month, property tax 300 per month, you pay commission of 1 month rent for every 2 years, 2 weeks vacant to find a tenant, mortgage installment is about 3100 per month

if both properties have to be sold within the first 4 years, the new launches unit actually have a better return (IRR) most of the time if they can be sold at profit after SSD.
This example is simplified on some assumptions, I just want illustrate that 4Y SSD's effect on flipping on both resale and new launches for any one who is interested. There are too many variables and unknowns to draw a definite conclusion that 4Y SSD is favorable to new launches, but generally it is, due the the format of cash flow resulted from the 60% LTV

[devilplate]

Agree that resale properties can generate immediate rental income, but at the current price level, it is relatively hard to find a deal that gives you more than 3% gross yield.

Without further clarification from you, I assume what you meant by flipping is the sell the property after a relatively short period of time from the day of purchase.
4ys does not prevent flipping, it just increase the cost of flipping, and in this regard it is fair to both resale and new launches. Actually, combined with 60% LTV, it actually favors new launches.
For example,
a new launch unit of 1.5m, down payment of 20% at exercising option, 20% 1.5 years after, the rest of 60% spread over the next 1.5 years with bank loan for 30y at 1.5%
a resale unit of the same 1.5m, down payment of 40% at exercising option, 60% bank loan 30y at 1.5%, gross rental yield 3% at 3750 per month, maintenance 300 per month, property tax 300 per month, you pay commission of 1 month rent for every 2 years, 2 weeks vacant to find a tenant, mortgage installment is about 3100 per month

if both properties have to be sold within the first 4 years, the new launches unit actually have a better return (IRR) most of the time if they can be sold at profit after SSD.
This example is simplified on some assumptions, I just want illustrate that 4Y SSD's effect on flipping on both resale and new launches for any one who is interested. There are too many variables and unknowns to draw a definite conclusion that 4Y SSD is favorable to new launches, but generally it is, due the the format of cash flow resulted from the 60% LTV
I dun agree ur example is conclusive....irr better for new launches only if both new n resale manage to sell at the same profit within the first 1.5yrs....before the next 20% kick in for those who bot new launches

If the full 40% is oredi kicked in for new, irr is actually better for resale bcoz of rental income.....

As long rental yield is higher den int rate, its a positive yield....

[ysyap]

Actually if developers cant sell, resale px will be affected too....

I m more den happy to see developers selling well at record px rather den the situation now....Hahaha... you have properties on hand so of course you hope that prices will go up further, that magical number of 20% of price appreciation that you've mentioned... Well I also have properties on hand but not intending to let go yet so yes on a selfish note, I hope developers will be clamped down more... so I can buy... hahaha!!! :spliff:

[ysyap]

I dun agree ur example is conclusive....irr better for new launches only if both new n resale manage to sell at the same profit within the first 1.5yrs....before the next 20% kick in for those who bot new launches

If the full 40% is oredi kicked in for new, irr is actually better for resale bcoz of rental income.....Smaller projects new launches take less than 1.5 years. Its a matter of timing and market demands so yes its as mentioned by SpinCity, simplified based on some assumptions... :o

[devilplate]

Hahaha... you have properties on hand so of course you hope that prices will go up further, that magical number of 20% of price appreciation that you've mentioned... Well I also have properties on hand but not intending to let go yet so yes on a selfish note, I hope developers will be clamped down more... so I can buy... hahaha!!! :spliff:
I m both the angel n devil

I wud rather hf a crash den to haf a flat market

I got useless banana notes as well

I love crash n boom but hate flat.....

[SpinCity]

I dun agree ur example is conclusive....irr better for new launches only if both new n resale manage to sell at the same profit within the first 1.5yrs....before the next 20% kick in for those who bot new launches

No,Even if sold at year 3, new launches still have better IRR based on the same assumptions although the gap is smaller. In year 4 shall be quite close but I would imagine that new launches is still better but marginally. You can try out if you are interested

If the full 40% is oredi kicked in for new, irr is actually better for resale bcoz of rental income.....
What you say is true, as I have pointed out that
1) it is the combination of 60% LTV and 4Y SSD that has the effect described. That's a given. If the 60% LTV is scrapped then the game changes. 50% LTV will favor new launches even more, while 80% LTV put them on a more equal footing
2) there too many unknowns and variables but to make any analysis, you have to make fair assumptions
if you believe that resale can sell at higher profit, than of course resale is better, no need to analysis at all
If both cannot be sold at profit, there must be very compelling reasons for the owners to sell or they will just hold

[devilplate]

What you say is true, as I have pointed out that
1) it is the combination of 60% LTV and 4Y SSD that has the effect described. That's a given. If the 60% LTV is scrapped then the game changes. 50% LTV will favor new launches even more, while 80% LTV put them on a more equal footing
2) there too many unknowns and variables but to make any analysis, you have to make fair assumptions
if you believe that resale can sell at higher profit, than of course resale is better, no need to analysis at all
If both cannot be sold at profit, there must be very compelling reasons for the owners to sell or they will just hold
I mentioned both if sold at same profit....

If both new n resale oredi 40% kick in, irr is better for resale if both sold at same profit given low int rate environment now....its easy to find gross yield of 3% and nett yield i assume will still be above int rate of 1.5% and i goto assume tat int rate stays the same....

Btw ur irr is roi? Return on investment....i always use roi

And dun forget the 20% dp for new which earn zero yield....while resale will earn u some yield oredi

If int rate shoot up above 3%, and rental yield still at 3%, den of coz the nett rental yield will become negative and thus buy new is better

[devilplate]

Buy new can be better den resale for those who r jus short of let say 50k for the full 40% dp....another case i can tink of is the buyer short of the full 40% dp and aso in the midst of selling other assets, so naturally he goto buy new where he can buy himself extra time

[rockinsg]

I mentioned both if sold at same profit....

If both new n resale oredi 40% kick in, irr is better for resale if both sold at same profit given low int rate environment now....its easy to find gross yield of 3% and nett yield i assume will still be above int rate of 1.5% and i goto assume tat int rate stays the same....

Btw ur irr is roi? Return on investment....i always use roi

And dun forget the 20% dp for new which earn zero yield....while resale will earn u some yield oredi

If int rate shoot up above 3%, and rental yield still at 3%, den of coz the nett rental yield will become negative and thus buy new is better

But isnt it true that given 2 property being everything equal..It will be difficult to sell at equal profit..
Cause wear and tear caused by 4 years of rental will also be taken into account by new buyer..

[devilplate]

I mentioned both if sold at same profit....

If both new n resale oredi 40% kick in, irr is better for resale if both sold at same profit given low int rate environment now....its easy to find gross yield of 3% and nett yield i assume will still be above int rate of 1.5% and i goto assume tat int rate stays the same....

Btw ur irr is roi? Return on investment....i always use roi

And dun forget the 20% dp for new which earn zero yield....while resale will earn u some yield oredi

If int rate shoot up above 3%, and rental yield still at 3%, den of coz the nett rental yield will become negative and thus buy new is better

It aso depend on how much profit we r toking about....if the profit is only $1, den definitely resale roi is way better......bcoz at the end of the day, u earn on the nett rental yield while buy new earn u only $1....

[SpinCity]

I mentioned both if sold at same profit....

If both new n resale oredi 40% kick in, irr is better for resale if both sold at same profit given low int rate environment now....its easy to find gross yield of 3% and nett yield i assume will still be above int rate of 1.5% and i goto assume tat int rate stays the same....

Btw ur irr is roi? Return on investment....i always use roi

And dun forget the 20% dp for new which earn zero yield....while resale will earn u some yield oredi

If int rate shoot up above 3%, and rental yield still at 3%, den of coz the nett rental yield will become negative and thus buy new is better

I have already made it very clear, for new launches 20% at exercising option, another 20% after 1.5years
in Y3 new launches can still be better than resale, same for Y4
my IRR is IRR, you can find it in excel to calculate
Let me make it clear by repeating it one more time:
1) 4Y SSD does not kill new launch flipping, it just increases the cost of flipping
2) The combination of 60% LTV + 4Y SSD actually gives an edge to new launches over resale on the assumptions that they can be sold within a relatively short period of time at profit after SSD. That's "flipping" by definition, isn't it? and I am responding to "4y SSD takes away the possibility of flipping for new launches"
If the topic is "fire sale", then 4Y SSD is more likely favorable to resale mah

[Condo Kaiser]

wear and tear can be countered with selling with tenency... at least add 30-40k more to selling price.

[devilplate]

But isnt it true that given 2 property being everything equal..It will be difficult to sell at equal profit..
Cause wear and tear caused by 4 years of rental will also be taken into account by new buyer..
In the first place, if everything equal as in same psf and project is side by side, of coz i will go for new

[SpinCity]

It aso depend on how much profit we r toking about....if the profit is only $1, den definitely resale roi is way better......bcoz at the end of the day, u earn on the nett rental yield while buy new earn u only $1....

will you sell at $1 profit?
after TOP, new launches can generate rental income and potential higher than the resales bought 3 years ago

[devilplate]

I have already made it very clear, for new launches 20% at exercising option, another 20% after 1.5years
in Y3 new launches can still be better than resale, same for Y4
my IRR is IRR, you can find it in excel to calculate
Let me make it clear by repeating it one more time:
1) 4Y SSD does not kill new launch flipping, it just increases the cost of flipping
2) The combination of 60% LTV + 4Y SSD actually gives an edge to new launches over resale on the assumptions that they can be sold within a relatively short period of time at profit after SSD. That's "flipping" by definition, isn't it? and I am responding to "4y SSD takes away the possibility of flipping for new launches"
If the topic is "fire sale", then 4Y SSD is more likely favorable to resale mah
Mabe u can tabulate the actual irr n show it to us...:D

And aso based on different profit margin...$1 vs 100k vs 1mil.....the bigger the profit, buy new better...smaller den buy resale better...m i rite?:D

[howgozit]

For example,
a new launch unit of 1.5m, down payment of 20% at exercising option, 20% 1.5 years after, the rest of 60% spread over the next 1.5 years with bank loan for 30y at 1.5%
a resale unit of the same 1.5m, down payment of 40% at exercising option, 60% bank loan 30y at 1.5%, gross rental yield 3% at 3750 per month, maintenance 300 per month, property tax 300 per month, you pay commission of 1 month rent for every 2 years, 2 weeks vacant to find a tenant, mortgage installment is about 3100 per month

if both properties have to be sold within the first 4 years, the new launches unit actually have a better return (IRR) most of the time if they can be sold at profit after SSD.
This example is simplified on some assumptions, I just want illustrate that 4Y SSD's effect on flipping on both resale and new launches for any one who is interested. There are too many variables and unknowns to draw a definite conclusion that 4Y SSD is favorable to new launches, but generally it is, due the the format of cash flow resulted from the 60% LTV

I think your example is mathematically incorrect.

[SpinCity]

In the first place, if everything equal as in same psf and project is side by side, of coz i will go for new

of course hard to find everything equal in same psf and side by side projects where one is new launch one is resale
but you can always fix the total quantum at certain level mah. say you have 600K, the max you can buy is 1.5M so either by a 1.5M resale, or a 1.5M new launch mah

[devilplate]

of course hard to find everything equal in same psf and side by side projects where one is new launch one is resale
but you can always fix the total quantum at certain level mah. say you have 600K, the max you can buy is 1.5M so either by a 1.5M resale, or a 1.5M new launch mah
Yes but tat doesnt mean buy resale got lower profit rite?

So far, many of us agreed tat buy resale is better den new launches due to the high premium on new launches....

[devilplate]

will you sell at $1 profit?
after TOP, new launches can generate rental income and potential higher than the resales bought 3 years ago
U see...there is way too many vairables....

I can aso say its highly impossible for ur scenerio to happen too....how likely we can flip within a short period of time now wif 16 or 12% ssd n yet making gd profit margin?

[rockinsg]

In the first place, if everything equal as in same psf and project is side by side, of coz i will go for new

How abt
ppty 1- Just topped(day one)
ppty 2- new launch(possesion 4 years from now)..
same psf..same location..

Am sure 4 year from now ppty2 will be more then ppt1..cause 4 years old and one is newly topped..Even rental market will favour newly topped units...
Whatever ppl argue,selling with tenancy or not..ppty2 will be much higher then ppty1..
So you cannot just ignore wear and tear factor..

Resale seller are pricing it almost same as new launch...thats why people are buying new units..developers happy :D

[SpinCity]

Yes but tat doesnt mean buy resale got lower profit rite?

So far, many of us agreed tat buy resale is better den new launches due to the high premium on new launches....

I thought you just mentioned in other thread that the premium is getting less?
but the premium shall always be there as the ages of resale and new launch are different so will be the price
Anyway, I think I have made my point clear, the format of cash flow caused by 60% LTV + 4Y SSD does affect the return (in terms of IRR) of flipping
and it is favorable to new launches under certain assumptions
except for own-stay, I believe many people buy new launches with the mentality of 1) sell it any time if profit is good 2)otherwise rent out to generate passive income
so it is actually hard to draw a line between flipping and investing, flippers can turn investors any time and vice versa
but for true flippers who have to buy now and firmly believe that they can exit at profit before TOP, or even within 2 years, this 4Y SSD + 60% LTV is more toward their favor, that's all

[devilplate]

How abt
ppty 1- Just topped(day one)
ppty 2- new launch(possesion 4 years from now)..
same psf..same location..

Am sure 4 year from now ppty2 will be more then ppt1..cause 4 years old and one is newly topped..Even rental market will favour newly topped units...
Whatever ppl argue,selling with tenancy or not..ppty2 will be much higher then ppty1..
So you cannot just ignore wear and tear factor..

Resale seller are pricing it almost same as new launch...thats why people are buying new units..developers happy :D
Yes tat wat i have been toking about! Recently especially after cm4, new launches in ocr toned down on their pricing while resellers close the gap n almost on par wif new launches! So its not conclusive to say cm4 favor new based on continued strong new launch sales volume vs shrinking resale volume:D

[devilplate]

I thought you just mentioned in other thread that the premium is getting less?
but the premium shall always be there as the ages of resale and new launch are different so will be the price
Anyway, I think I have made my point clear, the format of cash flow caused by 60% LTV + 4Y SSD does affect the return (in terms of IRR) of flipping
and it is favorable to new launches under certain assumptions
except for own-stay, I believe many people buy new launches with the mentality of 1) sell it any time if profit is good 2)otherwise rent out to generate passive income
so it is actually hard to draw a line between flipping and investing, flippers can turn investors any time and vice versa
but for true flippers who have to buy now and firmly believe that they can exit at profit before TOP, or even within 2 years, this 4Y SSD + 60% LTV is more toward their favor, that's all

Premium getting lesser tats y ppl still buy new!

And for flipper, prior to cm4, theey r in much better position.....so actually after cm4.....flippers very disadvantaged!

[SpinCity]

U see...there is way too many vairables....

I can aso say its highly impossible for ur scenerio to happen too....how likely we can flip within a short period of time now wif 16 or 12% ssd n yet making gd profit margin?

Well, don't think any investor nor flipper will sell at negligible profits unless under certain extraordinary circumstances
At the end of the day, making money is the common goal shared by both flippers and investors
if flippers don't believe they can make money by flipping, why flip?
All I have to say that if you prefer flipping and have to enter the market NOW and choosing between resale and new launch, the 4YSSD+60%LTV will make new launch a better choice due to the cash flow resulted from it

[devilplate]

Well, don't think any investor nor flipper will sell at negligible profits unless under certain extraordinary circumstances
At the end of the day, making money is the common goal shared by both flippers and investors
if flippers don't believe they can make money by flipping, why flip?
All I have to say that if you prefer flipping and have to enter the market NOW and choosing between resale and new launch, the 4YSSD+60%LTV will make new launch a better choice due to the cash flow resulted from it
Without 4yrs ssd, its even better for flippers to buy new!

[SpinCity]

Without 4yrs ssd, its even better for flippers to buy new!

but 4y ssd and 60% is a given, right
anyway, I think we have made our points clear
btw, the possibility of the existence of 4yssd after 3 years is .... quite low I would think?

[howgozit]

I thought you just mentioned in other thread that the premium is getting less?
but the premium shall always be there as the ages of resale and new launch are different so will be the price
Anyway, I think I have made my point clear, the format of cash flow caused by 60% LTV + 4Y SSD does affect the return (in terms of IRR) of flipping
and it is favorable to new launches under certain assumptions
except for own-stay, I believe many people buy new launches with the mentality of 1) sell it any time if profit is good 2)otherwise rent out to generate passive income
so it is actually hard to draw a line between flipping and investing, flippers can turn investors any time and vice versa
but for true flippers who have to buy now and firmly believe that they can exit at profit before TOP, or even within 2 years, this 4Y SSD + 60% LTV is more toward their favor, that's all

People who buy with the intention to make money are investors. If they do it in double quick time, they are flippers. In a mathematical model, flippers are subsets of investors.

But nevermind what flippers or investors are, I think you need to recalculate again, my calculators are telling me a different story.

[devilplate]

but 4y ssd and 60% is a given, right
anyway, I think we have made our points clear
btw, the possibility of the existence of 4yssd after 3 years is .... quite low I would think?
So my point is: without cm4, new launches r far better for flippers den to buy resale.....and after cm4, it actually making new launches less advantage over resale! But still advantage over resale but less advantage! Bcoz there r many intanguble benefits of buying new as well! Can choose their choiced units, feel gd factor, first owner status, everyone buying similar px, px crash all lose tgt etc etc....so actually cm4 trying to make it fairer for the resale market!

[SpinCity]

People who buy with the intention to make money are investors. If they do it in double quick time, they are flippers. In a mathematical model, flippers are subsets of investors.

But nevermind what flippers or investors are, I think you need to recalculate again, my calculators are telling me a different story.

Thanks for the reminder and I have double checked my simplified model which seems fine to me
If your calculation tells you a different story, definitely you shall follow yours for any investment decisions

[DC33_2008]

More flippers in the development in the development is better as price will move up faster. It is bad news if majority of units in develpment are for owner occupancy.
Well, don't think any investor nor flipper will sell at negligible profits unless under certain extraordinary circumstances
At the end of the day, making money is the common goal shared by both flippers and investors
if flippers don't believe they can make money by flipping, why flip?
All I have to say that if you prefer flipping and have to enter the market NOW and choosing between resale and new launch, the 4YSSD+60%LTV will make new launch a better choice due to the cash flow resulted from it

[SpinCity]

So my point is: without cm4, new launches r far better for flippers den to buy resale.....and after cm4, it actually making new launches less advantage over resale! But still advantage over resale but less advantage! Bcoz there r many intanguble benefits of buying new as well! Can choose their choiced units, feel gd factor, first owner status, everyone buying similar px, px crash all lose tgt etc etc....so actually cm4 trying to make it fairer for the resale market!

Points taken and agree!

[DC33_2008]

If everything being equal between props 1 and 2, but prop 1 has a few plots of land nearby that is vacant as compared to prop 2 that is totally build-up. Price of prop 1 can move even though is older due to the launch price of new nearby developments.
How abt
ppty 1- Just topped(day one)
ppty 2- new launch(possesion 4 years from now)..
same psf..same location..

Am sure 4 year from now ppty2 will be more then ppt1..cause 4 years old and one is newly topped..Even rental market will favour newly topped units...
Whatever ppl argue,selling with tenancy or not..ppty2 will be much higher then ppty1..
So you cannot just ignore wear and tear factor..

Resale seller are pricing it almost same as new launch...thats why people are buying new units..developers happy :D

[devilplate]

More flippers in the development in the development is better as price will move up faster. It is bad news if majority of units in develpment are for owner occupancy.
And somebody oredi mentioned about the flipping inflationary pressure which i totally agreed...

So its aso better to buy a sizeable big size projects so tat there r more transactions vs a boutique apt....

Boutqiue apt when it gets old...hardly any transaction....if many yrs dun hf transaction den the bank somehow will still based on the past transacted px to indicate the value of ur ppty....sux thumb....whahaha

[devilplate]

If everything being equal between props 1 and 2, but prop 1 has a few plots of land nearby that is vacant as compared to prop 2 that is totally build-up. Price of prop 1 can move even though is older due to the launch price of new nearby developments.
How to be equal if they r in different locations?

[howgozit]

Thanks for the reminder and I have double checked my simplified model which seems fine to me
If your calculation tells you a different story, definitely you shall follow yours for any investment decisions

OK sir. I guess we may be taking different things into considerations.

I just think we should be more circumspect and make our own calculations instead of listening to the agents rhetoric. They tell you anything to make the sale.

But if you have done your own calculations and are convinced that it is more advantageous to buy a new launch then by all means go ahead. Best wishes!

[ysyap]

And somebody oredi mentioned about the flipping inflationary pressure which i totally agreed...

So its aso better to buy a sizeable big size projects so tat there r more transactions vs a boutique apt....

Boutqiue apt when it gets old...hardly any transaction....if many yrs dun hf transaction den the bank somehow will still based on the past transacted px to indicate the value of ur ppty....sux thumb....whahahaWhen economy is good, banks may value a unit based on past transacted price but are more than willing to grant those funds even if its way off those valuations based on these old transactions. But when times are bad, everything also very tight! :D

[devilplate]

When economy is good, banks may value a unit based on past transacted price but are more than willing to grant those funds even if its way off those valuations based on these old transactions. But when times are bad, everything also very tight! :D
For boutique apts, not true...i experienced it b4....vy frustrated....whahaha...luckily i patient enuff to wait n wait den finally got one neighbour sold at a higher px....den i peg onto it n sell mine at slightly higher px:D

For own stay, boutique apt is fine....for investment, better dun touch...at least buy a 200+ units project to be on the safer side

[SpinCity]

OK sir. I guess we may be taking different things into considerations.

I just think we should be more circumspect and make our own calculations instead of listening to the agents rhetoric. They tell you anything to make the sale.

But if you have done your own calculations and are convinced that it is more advantageous to buy a new launch then by all means go ahead. Best wishes!
Sure, prudence is a must when making investment decision
at the moment, I have no intention to buy new launch for investment
Actually, I am quite particular about new launches as my strategy is to buy, own-stay for a few years, before it is sold at my target profit, or rent out after 2-3 years of own-stay
this is to minimize the vacant time and avoid the competition for tenants when just TOP, also to enjoy the newness of it
But in general, I prefer to buy resale

[howgozit]

Sure, prudence is a must when making investment decision
at the moment, I have no intention to buy new launch for investment
Actually, I am quite particular about new launches as my strategy is to buy, own-stay for a few years, before it is sold at my target profit, or rent out after 2-3 years of own-stay
this is to minimize the vacant time and avoid the competition for tenants when just TOP, also to enjoy the newness of it
But in general, I prefer to buy resale

The way I see it, new launches are just recalibrating the progress payment process which was already there before CM4.

As a flipper myself, I would say flippers are opportunistic investors. I used to go for the new launches with the furthest date for TOP. This buys me time to transact before the next progress payment.

On the other hand, when I buy a resale, I immediately have to consider its rentability.

With CM4, I can no longer dabble with new launches, however my view/consideration towards resale remains the same. Of course, the outlay sum is now much more. This however over a 1.5yr period tilts it in favour of a resale with rental income based on my calculations (which I concede is contentious). Over a 4year period the tilt is even more away from the new launch.

Cheers!

[teddybear]

What makes you come to this conclusion?

How to define flippers? 2 definitions:
1) Flippers want to flip within a short period (as short as possible).
- In this case, flippers can buy new launch or resale depending on which he think can make more money (when there is no 4 years 16% SSD).

2) Flippers want to flip before taking physical possession of the property after inking an option to buy it or to flip immediately after TOP (that is why new launch is preferred! Remember, MND & URA monitors the number of sub-sale transactions as a sign of speculation by flippers! Sub-sale means new project just TOP but before CSC!)!
- With such mentality, sure buy new launch, don't need to consider anything else.

Now, we add:
3) With 80% LTV becoming 60% LTV, 2 cases to consider:
(i) Buy resale: need to come out 40% cash immediately.
(ii) Buy new launch: come out with 20% cash immediately and the rest of 20% cash come out 2 years later (best if don't have that 20% cash or invested somewhere else, do more with less money!).
- Conclusion: as a flippers, better buy new launch!
[Note: While I don't like to flip, I always play leverage to my advantage. Let me choose pay 40% immediately or pay 20% and the next 20% 2 years later, sure I choose the latter lah! No brainer! I keep that 20% and invest over 2 years can expect to earn 40% return rather than buy resale and collect 3% net rental? Stupid since in both buying new launch & resale cases, property already locked in and surely lock up less cash is better!!! Looking at the situation now, if I want to be flippers, I sure buy new launch!!! Simple logic!]

4) 4 years 16% SSD, 2 cases to consider:
(i) Buy resale: Need to take physical possession of property first, deal with tenants, etc. Too trouble & too many variables & unknown for flippers.
(ii) Buy new launch: For flippers, wah so nice, by the time TOP, 4years 16% SSD left 0-1 year only, can flip without much penalty (vs resale)! Less effect to flippers buy new launch relative to resale!
- Conclusion: as a flippers, better buy new launch when there is this 4 years 16% SSD in place!

So, in conclusion, to a flippers, by adding both 60% LTV and 4 years 16% SSD, it is better for them to buy new launch than resale! :banghead:

With the previous 80% LTV and no SSD, flippers only consider (2) to be to their advantage. Now we add (3) and (4), it is even more advantageous to buy new launch than resale! (no brainer!). So you conclusion is not valid. :p



Without 4yrs ssd, its even better for flippers to buy new!

[teddybear]

Oh my god! :doh:
Contrary to your statement, CM4 make it more advantageous for flippers to buy new launch (than resale) when the flippers are considering which to buy to flip!


So my point is: without cm4, new launches r far better for flippers den to buy resale.....and after cm4, it actually making new launches less advantage over resale! But still advantage over resale but less advantage! Bcoz there r many intanguble benefits of buying new as well! Can choose their choiced units, feel gd factor, first owner status, everyone buying similar px, px crash all lose tgt etc etc....so actually cm4 trying to make it fairer for the resale market!

[devilplate]

I tink teddy duno wats flipping means....

Previously without 4yrs ssd, i can try to flip the nxt day i exercise s&p....i jus nid to have 20%dp to join in the flipping game ...nvm i cant get bank loan....i still got 6-9mths b4 first 10% kicks in....or i can delay getting bank loan which will save me bank cancellations fees for me to flip

But if i wana flip witin few mths for resale, bank loan oredi kicks in...i goto worry abt paying mthly installment....

For new launches, its easier to flip compared to buying resale to flip....
All u nid to pray for is the project to be fully sold, den u can try to flip liao:D

In my own books, buy n sell upon TOP is not flipping....

Flipping is trying to sell the moment u bot it.....

[bfam]

Let's rewind (correct my facts if I am wrong), when CM3 introduced it was 70%LTV and SSD was on reducing: "If the property is sold within three years the full rate of SSD will be payable at 1% for the first $180,000, 2% for the next $180,000 and 3% on the balance. If the property is sold between one and two years after purchase then the owners faces paying two thirds of the SSD and if it is sold between two and three years than a third will be due."

Meaning a flipper needs only to fork out a 1% option money and as long as he can find someone willing to pay 3% premium over what he paid for, he would breakeven right?

So with that 4y SSD, it would deter small-time flippers (privy to the launches like ppty agents or relatives!) from coming out with a measly $10K (say 1% of $1m new launch) to inflate prices unnecessarily. Is that right?

[teddybear]

I think your reasoning is flawed. :beats-me-man:
I am also a flipper when it is easy to be one! Now not so easy with that 4-years 16% SSD but it is still more favorable for flippers to flip new launch than resale.
Also, that 60% LTV also favors flipping new launch vs resale! (new launch only come out 20% immediately and the other 20% can earn 40% return over 2 years vs coming out 40% immediately!). :cheers1:
Before that, it is 80% LTV and it is the same cash outlay immediately regardless of buying new launch or resale! :(


The way I see it, new launches are just recalibrating the progress payment process which was already there before CM4.

As a flipper myself, I would say flippers are opportunistic investors. I used to go for the new launches with the furthest date for TOP. This buys me time to transact before the next progress payment.

On the other hand, when I buy a resale, I immediately have to consider its rentability.

With CM4, I can no longer dabble with new launches, however my view/consideration towards resale remains the same. Of course, the outlay sum is now much more. This however over a 1.5yr period tilts it in favour of a resale with rental income based on my calculations (which I concede is contentious). Over a 4year period the tilt is even more away from the new launch.

Cheers!

[teddybear]

Why? You mean your definition is the ONLY right definition for "flipping"? Otherwise why say I don't know what is flipping?
Why URA monitor sub-sales as sign of speculation & flipping? Based on your definition, URA should just measure how fast a property has been resold rather than monitor sub-sales! URA so stupid you so clever? :p



I tink teddy duno wats flipping means....

Previously without 4yrs ssd, i can try to flip the nxt day i exercise s&p....i jus nid to have 20%dp to join in the flipping game ...nvm i cant get bank loan....i still got 6-9mths b4 first 10% kicks in....or i can delay getting bank loan which will save me bank cancellations fees for me to flip

But if i wana flip witin few mths for resale, bank loan oredi kicks in...i goto worry abt paying mthly installment....

For new launches, its easier to flip compared to buying resale to flip....
All u nid to pray for is the project to be fully sold, den u can try to flip liao:D

In my own books, buy n sell upon TOP is not flipping....

Flipping is trying to sell the moment u bot it.....

[SpinCity]

Let's rewind (correct my facts if I am wrong), when CM3 introduced it was 70%LTV and SSD was on reducing: "If the property is sold within three years the full rate of SSD will be payable at 1% for the first $180,000, 2% for the next $180,000 and 3% on the balance. If the property is sold between one and two years after purchase then the owners faces paying two thirds of the SSD and if it is sold between two and three years than a third will be due."

Meaning a flipper needs only to fork out a 1% option money and as long as he can find someone willing to pay 3% premium over what he paid for, he would breakeven right?

So with that 4y SSD, it would deter small-time flippers (privy to the launches like ppty agents or relatives!) from coming out with a measly $10K (say 1% of $1m new launch) to inflate prices unnecessarily. Is that right?

Think you are confused with flipping options and flipping properties.
For new launches, 5% when option is granted, and 15% down payment must be paid upon exercising the option, which is normally 2 weeks from the option is granted
for resales, 1% for option, 4% when exercise the option (by then you the buyer is contractually bond to the transaction), and the balance to be paid at completion which is normally 10-12 weeks from the option date

[devilplate]

Why? You mean your definition is the ONLY right definition for "flipping"? Otherwise why say I don't know what is flipping?
Why URA monitor sub-sales as sign of speculation & flipping? Based on your definition, URA should just measure how fast a property has been resold rather than monitor sub-sales! URA so stupid you so clever? :p
Quote u one eg of flipping...

Go check kovan grandeur....3 flipping done within 6mths from date of purchase...they incurred 3% ssd....if the project is launched after cm4, do u tink its still viable for them to flip within 6mths? Will they tink twice about buying kovan grandeur in the first place?

[devilplate]

Flipping and subsale got different meaning altogether...

I buy from resale today....tmr i sold it....its not a subsale..but its considered as flipping...

If i bot from new launch, i sold tmr, its a subsale and its also a flipping...

All agree?;)

[amk]

Flipping is always easier for new sale because the funding needed is less. Now with higher LTV the disparity wrt funding is even more pronounced.
I agree with SpinCity, SSD increases the cost for flipping in both resale and new sale. But because of the particular new sale nature, where most subsale is done around TOP, the SSD effect becomes less.

Rental consideration is a prerequisite when u decide to flip new sale or reesale. It cannot go into the equation AGAIN after.

For example u eying 2 pty, one new sale, one resale. Before CMs, you already made a judgement on which one to flip, considering resale having advantage of rent, new sale having advantage of funding. Now CM comes, the SSD and LTV adds weight on the new sale. U dun come again and put rent into the consideration again.

This is what we meant by CM4 favors new sale.

[amk]

Now how about genuine upgraders ? Should be a large proportion now rite ? For them, the most important thing is affordability, not returns. So no rental talk whatsoever. High LTV makes some resale just plain impossible, but new sale, possible. Again my old example, 300 k savings can buy me a 800k resale, but 1m new sale with a secured job. Or I have 400 k but 100k stuck in other assets. This 1-2 yr buffer is significant. For this group, the effect of CM4 should be very very obvious. I have relatives falling into this group.

[devilplate]

Flippers in the first plc only look at new n nvr consider resale bcoz they only go for cap gain n nvr want to hold physical ppty

So 4 yrs ssd remove flipping benefit from new launch

And 60ltv favors less cash upfront for new

So nett result is non conclusive

Ok getting bored wif this topic liao.... Last post on this....:sleep:

Been toking n repeating on same stuff:sleep:

One thing i strongly believe tat flippers r out of the game now which is gd

So wat if cm4 favor developer? Developer cant sell meaning it will benefit resale market? Tink harder.... If u dun wish to see prices coming down, u better pray developer continue to do well

[teddybear]

That 20% downpayment that I can pay 2 years later I can earn additional 40% out of it! If I put that 20% downpayment immediately into resale properties, earn 3% rental mah? Obvious isn't it? If got choice, why want to pay up 20% immediately rather than wait 2 years later (since in both cases, regardless of new launch or resale, for capital gains both are already locked in and you will stand to benefit from capital gain, except resale need to pay additional 20% cash upfront while new launch can pay 2 years later).


Now how about genuine upgraders ? Should be a large proportion now rite ? For them, the most important thing is affordability, not returns. So no rental talk whatsoever. High LTV makes some resale just plain impossible, but new sale, possible. Again my old example, 300 k savings can buy me a 800k resale, but 1m new sale with a secured job. Or I have 400 k but 100k stuck in other assets. This 1-2 yr buffer is significant. For this group, the effect of CM4 should be very very obvious. I have relatives falling into this group.

[DC33_2008]

I meant they are in the same area for example Bukit Timah. The immediate vicinity is a few plots of land for Prop 2.
How to be equal if they r in different locations?

[devilplate]

That 20% downpayment that I can pay 2 years later I can earn additional 40% out of it! If I put that 20% downpayment immediately into resale properties, earn 3% rental mah? Obvious isn't it? If got choice, why want to pay up 20% immediately rather than wait 2 years later (since in both cases, regardless of new launch or resale, for capital gains both are already locked in and you will stand to benefit from capital gain, except resale need to pay additional 20% cash upfront while new launch can pay 2 years later).
Can share the lobang u stated in red?

[amk]

Greek bond ! :D U dare ? :D

.. Or some strange distressed corporate bonds yielding > 10% ;)

[devilplate]

Greek bond ! :D U dare ? :D

.. Or some strange distressed corporate bonds yielding > 10% ;)
Hehe much better den buying ppty if can make 40% within 2 yrs :D

On la:D

[teddybear]

Such deals cannot be described in a few words & sentences, so can't really tell lah. :p


Can share the lobang u stated in red?

[teddybear]

Properties are better for long-term investment as outcome is more certain in the long-run.
Those 40% within 2 years I mentioned are already conservative estimates depending on the investment mix. Can also be 100% within 2 years but involves higher volatility and risks. :cheers1:


Hehe much better den buying ppty if can make 40% within 2 yrs :D

On la:D

[rattydrama]

So wat if cm4 favor developer? Developer cant sell meaning it will benefit resale market? Tink harder.... If u dun wish to see prices coming down, u better pray developer continue to do well


just 2 days ago was thinking of this too!.. So we must pray that SSD of 4 years starts from OTP, good enough to attract new buyer continue to bite on developers' projects with higher psf.

reslae psf sure continue to appreciate.

[howgozit]

Imagine if a new launch now is 100% sold out, chances are you will hardly see transactions (if any) in the next 4 years in that project. Without any transactions within the project, the inflationary pressure is less. Many of the projects (especially in the OCR) will largely be forgotten 4yrs from now.

After 4 years, when "flippers" start unloading, there is a deflationary pressure as there is a pent-up supply with the many waiting to sell. With no transactions in the past 4yrs, benchmarking the price in the same project becomes open to market with only the 4yr old price as the last reference. Of course the overall market will affect the pricing but that is the same with resale as well.

Meanwhile resale mature properties still flow with the market. If the economy still holds up and credit environment is still favourable, a mature project expects steady appreciation transaction upon transaction. This is an inflationary pressure which is not present in a new launch project.

Anyway, I guess everybody has their own point of view and I am not trying to convince anyone. It will take 4yrs to find out whose view is correct. Maybe my analysis is flawed but I am betting on the resale properties.

My guess is that people buying new launches now are genuine buyers. "flippers" if any buying new lauches are probably duped by the agents sweet talk with a fancy calculations.

Just for discussion. Cheers!

[ysyap]

Imagine if a new launch now is 100% sold out, chances are you will hardly see transactions (if any) in the next 4 years in that project. Without any transactions within the project, the inflationary pressure is less. Many of the projects (especially in the OCR) will largely be forgotten 4yrs from now.

After 4 years, when "flippers" start unloading, there is a deflationary pressure as there is a pent-up supply with the many waiting to sell. With no transactions in the past 4yrs, benchmarking the price in the same project becomes open to market with only the 4yr old price as the last reference. Of course the overall market will affect the pricing but that is the same with resale as well.

Meanwhile resale mature properties still flow with the market. If the economy still holds up and credit environment is still favourable, a mature project expects steady appreciation transaction upon transaction. This is an inflationary pressure which is not present in a new launch project.

Anyway, I guess everybody has their own point of view and I am not trying to convince anyone. It will take 4yrs to find out whose view is correct. Maybe my analysis is flawed but I am betting on the resale properties.

My guess is that people buying new launches now are genuine buyers. "flippers" if any buying new lauches are probably duped by the agents sweet talk with a fancy calculations.

Just for discussion. Cheers!May not wait 4 years. 3 years also can, just minimize profit. Flippers may not tahan so long. Anyway, also must look at market. If market down down down, then no choice but to carry on waiting lor... :spliff2:

[DC33_2008]

You hit the nail on its head. This group is either upgraders or 2nd/3rd home buyers. Their mentality is that they can wait and hope to sell and make some profit rather than leaving the downpayment $ in the bank or making use of CPF money. I believe some of us started off like them. It works very well in a uprising and buoyant market w/o CMs. Not sure about now like what you have highlighted earlier.
Imagine if a new launch now is 100% sold out, chances are you will hardly see transactions (if any) in the next 4 years in that project. Without any transactions within the project, the inflationary pressure is less. Many of the projects (especially in the OCR) will largely be forgotten 4yrs from now.

After 4 years, when "flippers" start unloading, there is a deflationary pressure as there is a pent-up supply with the many waiting to sell. With no transactions in the past 4yrs, benchmarking the price in the same project becomes open to market with only the 4yr old price as the last reference. Of course the overall market will affect the pricing but that is the same with resale as well.

Meanwhile resale mature properties still flow with the market. If the economy still holds up and credit environment is still favourable, a mature project expects steady appreciation transaction upon transaction. This is an inflationary pressure which is not present in a new launch project.

Anyway, I guess everybody has their own point of view and I am not trying to convince anyone. It will take 4yrs to find out whose view is correct. Maybe my analysis is flawed but I am betting on the resale properties.

My guess is that people buying new launches now are genuine buyers. "flippers" if any buying new lauches are probably duped by the agents sweet talk with a fancy calculations.

Just for discussion. Cheers!

[Ultroman]

Even buy resale still need wait for 4 yrs oso. Unless inflationary pressure fr bouyant rising mkt can translate to higher rental. But do agree that during the 4 yrs still have transactions along the way that will move with market direction. So resale prices more volatile?

[proud owner]

just 2 days ago was thinking of this too!.. So we must pray that SSD of 4 years starts from OTP, good enough to attract new buyer continue to bite on developers' projects with higher psf.

reslae psf sure continue to appreciate.


just a thought ...

renters in NY think that economy not doing well .. rent will stay low ...

economy not doing well .. developers hold back launches .. in fact no new apts in the city for the last few years ..

however people are still moving into the city ..which resulted in a shortage of rental units .. and the most recent data showed rents going up in manhattan ...


for singapore ..
if developers stop building ... what will happen ?
if developers cont to build ...what will happen to rental ?

assuming economy cont to do well
PR capped

[rockinsg]

just a thought ...

renters in NY think that economy not doing well .. rent will stay low ...

economy not doing well .. developers hold back launches .. in fact no new apts in the city for the last few years ..

however people are still moving into the city ..which resulted in a shortage of rental units .. and the most recent data showed rents going up in manhattan ...


for singapore ..
if developers stop building ... what will happen ?
if developers cont to build ...what will happen to rental ?

assuming economy cont to do well
PR capped

What needs to be matched is risk and rewards.. with all the CMs being introduced, reward is less.. even if prices rises fast..more CMs will kick in to stop the rise..
but risk is more, in case of anything wrong in 2013-2014 buyers will be punished..will too much supply and low rents..

Issue will always be economy..and who is willing to take risks..

People renters are renting cause still got high paying jobs..thus high rents..high home prices..
less job..less renters..low prices.. house ownwers will be hurt..

Renters will just move to low rent locations/their homes.. for transitory places like Singapore risk is people leaving once their is slight downturn in economy.. PR/foreigners are not bound with singapore...

[ysyap]

just a thought ...

renters in NY think that economy not doing well .. rent will stay low ...

economy not doing well .. developers hold back launches .. in fact no new apts in the city for the last few years ..

however people are still moving into the city ..which resulted in a shortage of rental units .. and the most recent data showed rents going up in manhattan ...


for singapore ..
if developers stop building ... what will happen ?
if developers cont to build ...what will happen to rental ?

assuming economy cont to do well
PR cappedOversupply lor... but I think the projected number of launches, whether in public or private market is pegged tightly to the PR cap that is being projected by MOM. Anyhow, this was an area of lapse which was highlighted in the last GE but I think it has since been bridged so things should look better in the years to come. :D

[rockinsg]

Oversupply lor... but I think the projected number of launches, whether in public or private market is pegged tightly to the PR cap that is being projected by MOM. Anyhow, this was an area of lapse which was highlighted in the last GE but I think it has since been bridged so things should look better in the years to come. :D

MOM and govt can decide on PRs caps and decide supply accordinly..
But can they predict how many of these PR will stay/buy house here?
How many won't return home on the first sign of any downturn in economy ?

In the worse situation these will be first to leave as some of them are sitting on handsome profit..and that would be opportunity to cash on it..

[amk]

Howgozit u made it sound like CM4 is a good policy ;)
And devil I'm also happy new sales doing well ;)

[ysyap]

MOM and govt can decide on PRs caps and decide supply accordinly..
But can they predict how many of these PR will stay/buy house here?
How many won't return home on the first sign of any downturn in economy ?

In the worse situation these will be first to leave as some of them are sitting on handsome profit..and that would be opportunity to cash on it..Therefore govt doing everything they can to ensure the economy will be resilient towards any downturn potentially occurring from Europe or US or even Asia or middle east. They stand to lose more than just these PRs during such down times. :D

[rattydrama]

You hit the nail on its head. This group is either upgraders or 2nd/3rd home buyers. Their mentality is that they can wait and hope to sell and make some profit rather than leaving the downpayment $ in the bank or making use of CPF money. I believe some of us started off like them. It works very well in a uprising and buoyant market w/o CMs. Not sure about now like what you have highlighted earlier.

so what are you going to do with the cash on hand? continue to keep in the bank?

[ysyap]

so what are you going to do with the cash on hand? continue to keep in the bank?Keep in bank only if property is falling in price and you are waiting to enter soon... :D

[Condo Kaiser]

go buy short dated distressed corp bonds....:hell-hath-no-fury: :hell-hath-no-fury:

[rattydrama]

just a thought ...

renters in NY think that economy not doing well .. rent will stay low ...

economy not doing well .. developers hold back launches .. in fact no new apts in the city for the last few years ..

however people are still moving into the city ..which resulted in a shortage of rental units .. and the most recent data showed rents going up in manhattan ...


for singapore ..
if developers stop building ... what will happen ?
if developers cont to build ...what will happen to rental ?

assuming economy cont to do well
PR capped

base on history, SG gov will stop the supply of land. With all the CMs, it restricts flippers. Currently all are potential buyers buying for own stay. maybe some are multiple owners and their existing units may not be restricted by CMs if they decide to sell now. And really the price over the past 3 years had appreciated quite a fair bite so I dont think they are making a lost.

going forward, I think if the PRs starts to flock in and only at this window period, then I think their is opportunity for buyers now.

economy cannt do well, the rent will go down..maybe condo can only rent out at 1k.

cheers

[rattydrama]

go buy short dated distressed corp bonds....:hell-hath-no-fury: :hell-hath-no-fury:

are you sure?

[rockinsg]

are you sure?

Can buy Capitaland stock.. if bullish on property...
Its beaten down.. funny, how come ppl so bullish on property.. but not on developer

[Condo Kaiser]

haha... don't take me as an investment guru but i think there is value in distressed corp bonds.. especially asian corp..

[Condo Kaiser]

Can buy Capitaland stock.. if bullish on property...
Its beaten down.. funny, how come ppl so bullish on property.. but not on developer

because stock prices are truer reflection on the market sentiment.... all the smart people in investment bank prop desk and fund houses know where to park their money and it is certainly not property counters in singapore, HK or China....

on the other hand.. property prices in singapore are largely driven by ordinary working people who out of sheer luck have accumulated a substantial amount of cash for them to feel rich enough to want to invest in property... all hoping to one day become biggest land lord....

unfortunately... the lay-man property buyers are never going to be smarter than the quant analysts... :tsk-tsk: :tsk-tsk:

the day u see fund houses start buying units in bulk then u know prices are at a reasnoable level...

[SpinCity]

because stock prices are truer reflection on the market sentiment.... all the smart people in investment bank prop desk and fund houses know where to park their money and it is certainly not property counters in singapore, HK or China....

on the other hand.. property prices in singapore are largely driven by ordinary working people who out of sheer luck have accumulated a substantial amount of cash for them to feel rich enough to want to invest in property... all hoping to one day become biggest land lord....

unfortunately... the lay-man property buyers are never going to be smarter than the quant analysts... :tsk-tsk: :tsk-tsk:

the day u see fund houses start buying units in bulk then u know prices are at a reasonable level...
stocks in natural are more liquid than properties, so the stock prices are meant to be more volatile than properties
institutional investors sell stocks for various reasons. They sell it today doesn't mean that they won't come back in tomorrow. Lots of the transactions are driven by technical signals and market sentiment, not necessary by fundamentals

just look back in the past 5 years, many funds paid hefty prices for commercial and residential buildings in SG and still holding on to their investments. Whether they are really long term investors or just got trapped is up to your view, but they are not necessary smarter in terms of real estate investment

[DC33_2008]

Fortunately, I do not have this problem as I have invested in properties way before the CM. There are still many other investment opportunities besides property. Will go back to property when the time is right unless there can really find a good buy at this point in time.
so what are you going to do with the cash on hand? continue to keep in the bank?

[rockinsg]

stocks in natural are more liquid than properties, so the stock prices are meant to be more volatile than properties
institutional investors sell stocks for various reasons. They sell it today doesn't mean that they won't come back in tomorrow. Lots of the transactions are driven by technical signals and market sentiment, not necessary by fundamentals

just look back in the past 5 years, many funds paid hefty prices for commercial and residential buildings in SG and still holding on to their investments. Whether they are really long term investors or just got trapped is up to your view, but they are not necessary smarter in terms of real estate investment

I agree that even the fund investors are not smarter..
But for singaporeans investing in singapore itself defy the logic of "divesification".

If singapore prosper they will prosper..but they will prosper anyway cause of good paying jobs..
but if singapore job growth/economy slows down..they will lose both job and property value..
How that justify diversification logic? I will have to say that average singaporean pouring money there money into property "investment" is bit stupid, if not well divesified...

[howgozit]

just a thought ...

renters in NY think that economy not doing well .. rent will stay low ...

economy not doing well .. developers hold back launches .. in fact no new apts in the city for the last few years ..

however people are still moving into the city ..which resulted in a shortage of rental units .. and the most recent data showed rents going up in manhattan ...


for singapore ..
if developers stop building ... what will happen ?
if developers cont to build ...what will happen to rental ?

assuming economy cont to do well
PR capped

Rental culture in places like US and Singapore are fundamentally different.

Society in the US expects an adult to live out on his/her own. Adults living with their parents are considered losers, a big social stigma. Even parents want to kick their adult children out. This creates a perpetual ready supply of renters as these young adults probably will not be able to afford to buy a property at this point. Renting is so prevalent that even later in life, for many Americans it is an acceptable lifestyle option. How many Singaporeans are comfortable with that idea? Perpetually renting.

Therefore, in Singapore the rental market for domestic consumption is comparatively low. Locals who rent are usually transitional renters, either those waiting for their homes to be renovated or those caught in between transactions. There are some young Singaporeans who do live out and rent, but they are too few and far in between to support the rental market.

In short, we are very dependant on foreigners to keep the rental market not just buoyant but viable.

If the economy falters, there will be an exodus of foreigners. Property investors are hit with a double whammy of loss in value and rental. Not just low rental but possibly even no rental.

[Condo Kaiser]

Totally agree with the above...

[ysyap]

Just ask the investors how many manage to rent to locals? The largest pool of local renters are probably for rooms near varsities and polytechnics. Seldom whole units to local families.

Then again I managed to rent to two local families but both are short term of about 1 yr while waiting to buy and then move to new place. :spliff:

[rattydrama]

Can buy Capitaland stock.. if bullish on property...
Its beaten down.. funny, how come ppl so bullish on property.. but not on developer

my observation is only buy ppty stock if the price is very low cos its the faster counter to drop.:2cents:

buy house still can hold & collect miserable rent.

[rattydrama]

In short, we are very dependant on foreigners to keep the rental market not just buoyant but viable.

If the economy falters, there will be an exodus of foreigners. Property investors are hit with a double whammy of loss in value and rental. Not just low rental but possibly even no rental.


we have a substaintial amount of foreigners with salary of 2-4k per month who are renters. they are willing to work long hours without good benefits with the view to get a PR in Singapore at a later time.

I think there are still renters in down market..it is just a matter of how much they are willing to pay.

[rockinsg]

my observation is only buy ppty stock if the price is very low cos its the faster counter to drop.:2cents:

buy house still can hold & collect miserable rent.

Property stocks are already beaten down.. and reflecting reality..its the property which is now out of sync..
miserable GDP.. Still people think property prices will remain this high?

No way property can stay up if stocks going down..
Stocks are liquid property is illiquid.. 6-7 months, property prices will start decline..

[SpinCity]

Property stocks are already beaten down.. and reflecting reality..its the property which is now out of sync..
miserable GDP.. Still people think property prices will remain this high?

No way property can stay up if stocks going down..
Stocks are liquid property is illiquid.. 6-7 months, property prices will start decline..
What if stocks recover by October or even Jan 2012 which is about 6 months from now? will property price still fall 6-7 months from now?

[rockinsg]

What if stocks recover by October or even Jan 2012 which is about 6 months from now? will property price still fall 6-7 months from now?

What I said was
"No way property can stay up if stocks going down.. "

Ofcourse if stock recovers then property will stay strong...property is always last to react and thats a fact..

its always risk reward game.. and risk isnt worth it now to buy property..
Even stocks are better play then property right now...

[DC33_2008]

Good time to buy stock now then to buy property. Just like two days ago. It is really like Yo-Yo these days. Make $ from stock and wait to buy property. :)
What I said was
"No way property can stay up if stocks going down.. "

Ofcourse if stock recovers then property will stay strong...property is always last to react and thats a fact..

its always risk reward game.. and risk isnt worth it now to buy property..
Even stocks are better play then property right now...