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ikan bilis

21-08-11, 22:49

常在後悔中

　　香港股市大跌15%後，一晚與太太晚飯，發覺她愁眉深鎖，問她是否在股票市場損失了很多錢，答案是出乎意料之外，她說﹕「在股票下跌前已經沽售了一半所持有的股票，現在只不過在後悔為甚麼當時不將股票全部沽清」。太太的說話使我想起家母以前曾經說過，若參與股票市場，很容易「常在後悔中」。

　　其實家母所說的理由亦非常簡單，當股票上升時，股民可能會後悔買得太少；當下跌時，則後悔為甚麼不將手上股票沽走，就算賺錢亦不開心，但又說不出一個已然。總之，就是不開心。

　　股神說﹕「越下跌越要買」，我有多少不明白，我記得另一位股神曾經說過一些投資股票戒條，其中有一條是永不溝淡，Never Average。現在越跌越買，亦即是溝淡，究竟兩位股神誰的投資策略正確？大家自己作一個判斷。

　　畢菲特所說﹕「越跌越買」，其實在賭場上，這是一條叫「神仙過鐵橋」的反方程式。若果閣下有足夠的現金，就算股票一直下跌，而你一直購買，但只要股票上升，必能使一部份股票賺錢，若升至最初購買時的股價，一定會有可觀的利潤，問題始終是否有足夠資金支持。

　　無論是「神仙過鐵橋」抑或是逆「神仙過鐵橋」方法，都不涉及槓桿原理。大不了全副身家輸掉，但是購買物業的人士大多數從銀行方面得到大部分資金，從八十年代9成按揭，到現今的5成按揭。若果槓桿比例太高，樓市一跌便走避不及，最終變成銀主盤，銀行再劈價出售。

　　本來，事情已經告一後落，但世事始終是有高低潮，樓市在1997年高峰下滑至2003年谷底，不少優質物業變成銀主盤被劈價出售，當2003年後，樓價節節上升，現在中原指數雖然與1997年高峰期時大致相同，但其中有個別優質物業升幅比高峰時以倍數計。今日，曾經擁有該些物業的人，面對如此升幅，實在是後悔非常，但投資是自己決定，一切與人無尤，又怨得誰。

　　友人問，股市大「冧」，樓市會不會大「冧」？我反問，在過去年多，政府為壓止樓價升勢，已經做了不少工作，又特別印花稅，又收緊按揭，但對股票市場不但沒有干預，反而加長了營業時間，美其名是與世界各地接軌，但實際上是希望各位再賭一會。就算股市大「冧」，導致樓市大「冧」，只要將實施的措施稍為放寬一些，供應減一些，樓市的跌勢便會調節過來，如此，樓市如何大「冧」？

　　樓市一日不「冧」，一日便會有很多人後悔，那些在2008、2009年錯信專業評論的人，將自住樓宇出售，等待時機回購。本來是與人無尤，但不斷有人挑釁，說樓市上升是由炒家做成，故此要政府出招滅絕炒家，反而將最主要因素「供應」忽略，當炒家滅絕，真正的因素浮現出來時，已經是遠水不能救近火，政府官員亦為此後悔不已。故此慌忙推出土地，又遇上股災，地產商對大型土地敬而遠之。雖然土地是以底價成交，但樓市仍不為所動，究竟樓市出了些甚麼狀況？

　　道理真的是很簡單，香港的業主都知道，現在將物業出售，就算真的是眼光獨到，但是樓市沒有15%以上跌幅，其實是得不償失，現在借貸又艱難，利息又比以前高出很多，一不小心，樓市不跌，則會變成無殼蝸牛。況且，真的是沒有專家說樓市會有15%以上跌幅，他們只會說可能有15%以上跌幅，故此，一動不如一靜，無謂他日自怨自艾「長在後悔中」。

汤文亮紀惠集團行政總裁
2011/08/16

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Sorry, these people sometimes wrote in cantonese-chinese... google language translation does not work.... :D

hyenergix

21-08-11, 22:59

any English translation?

你是不是龙的传人? :confused:

21-08-11, 23:23

Can summarise and give the gist of the story?
One or 2 sentences will do:D

howgozit

21-08-11, 23:26

你是不是龙的传人? :confused:

我是新加坡人. 你是什么人?

I thought this is an English forum that's why I asked.

Ok never mind... my Chinese not so powderful (especially traditional Chines) but I hope the rest of you guys enjoy the article.

21-08-11, 23:42

i only know this time is different from 2008.. inflation, jobs, blah blah there's why property price will hold and not drop. zhun bo?:D

solsys

22-08-11, 00:19

Funds flooding into Singapore.... Property prices should hold up but those looking for good deals can try coz some will let go for fear markets taking a turn for the worst.

Question is would it be worse than Lehman?

Sovereign debt news taking centrestage but economic fundamentals still ok I think.

Arcachon

22-08-11, 16:18

Often in regrets
Hong Kong stock market fell 15% after a late dinner with his wife and found her locked in distress, and asked her if she lost in the stock market a lot of money, the answer is unexpected, she said: "In selling the stock before the fall half of the shares owned, but now regret that I was not at all the stock sold out. " Wife's words reminded me of my mother said before, if the stock market, it is easy to "common in regrets."
In fact, my mother said the reasons are very simple, when the stock rises, investors may regret buying too little; when dropped, then the regret that I did not put away the stock on hand, even if money is no fun, but could not say a already. In short, is not happy.
Warren said: "The more down to buy more," I do not know how many, I remember another Warren once said that investing in stocks of some doctrine, which is never a ditch light, Never Average. Now more or more to buy, that is, ditch light, what two shares of the investment strategy of God who is right? We all make a judge.
Bi Buffett said: "The more or more to buy", in fact, in the casino, which is a called the "iron bridge over the gods," the anti-formula. If you have enough cash, even if the stock has been down, and you have to buy, but as long as stocks rise, part of the stock will make money if the share price rose to the initial purchase, there will be considerable profit, the question always whether there is sufficient financial support.

Whether it is "God over the iron bridge" or the reverse, "god over the iron bridge" method, do not involve leverage. Big deal to spend all his possessions lost, but most people who buy property to get most of the money from the banks, 90% mortgage from the eighties, to today's 5% mortgage. If the leverage ratio is too high, then fled the property market have fallen less, and ultimately becomes repossessed, the bank and then split prices.

Originally, things have come one after the other down, but things always have highs and lows, the property market peak in 1997, fell to the bottom in 2003, many high-quality properties become repossessed by splitting the sale price, when after 2003, prices steadily rise, although the index is now the Central Plains and the peak in 1997, when roughly the same, but there are some quality properties increase than the peak to multiply. Today, once people have used the property, the face of such increases, it is very sorry, but the investment is to decide for themselves, all with no particular person, and who complain too.

Friends asked, stock market, "Min", the property will not be great, "Min"? I asked, in the past year, the government press only prices rally, has done a lot of work, and especially stamp duty, and tighten the mortgage, but not only did not intervene in the stock market, but lengthened the hours of operation, the United States its name with the systems around the world, but then you actually want to bet for a while. Even if the stock market, "Min", resulting in the property market, "Min", as long as the measures will be implemented in slightly relax, reduce the supply of some, the decline in the property market will adjust over, so, how big the property market, "Min"?

Day is not property, "Min", a day many people will regret that mistake in 2008 and 2009 who believe professional reviews, will be owner-occupied housing for sale until they buy back. With no particular person had, but, there have been provocative, that made the property market rose by speculators and therefore the government moves to extinction speculators, but the most important factor "supply" ignored, when speculators become extinct, the real factors emerge, the is far from water can not put near the fire, government officials have this regret. So hurried introduction of land, are faced stock market crash, real estate developers for large land arm's length. Although land is the opening price, but the property market is still unmoved, what property of what situation?

Is really very simple reason that Hong Kong's owners know that the sale of their properties, even if true is a unique vision, but no more than 15% decline in the property market, is worth the candle, now lending and difficult, much higher interest off than before, accidentally, the property does not fall, it will become a snail without a shell. Moreover, experts say do not have more than 15% decline in the property market, they will say that there may be more than 15% decline, therefore, an action was better than, unnecessary future self-pity "long in regrets."

Tang Wenliang Yukie Group Chief Executive
2011/08/16

Arcachon

22-08-11, 16:24

Property following the stock market crash?
Recent weeks, the spate of bad news, the stock market remain under pressure. Many have experienced the property market bubble and the 1997 Asian financial crisis of 1998 potential buyers are worried that the property market will follow the same year as the stock market crash. Let the author to analyze.
Different sources of storm
Ten years ago, the property market turn down, mainly due to the overheated property market, regardless of the contribution rate, interest rate and inflation rate showed a poor ill-health, coupled with speculation and Mount goods traded very much, many investors can not afford on the Council, any adverse factors which bear engraved buyers would rather set off for the tart, stop-loss to leave. Time, the Asian currencies (including Hong Kong) is predators attack, the whole of Asia into a financial mess, also directly avalanche down the property market.
Today, the stock market upward move by the financial tsunami top two percent callback promise, mainly due to debt crisis in Europe and the U.S. sovereign rating lowered, raising the prospects for global economic worries, and concerns about stagflation occurred. Word is, the core of the storm is not Asia, but the two former European market economic powerhouse, the local housing market, speculators are not at all impossible for people who type panic step down, showing that the two center of the storm of financial crisis not the same.
Psychological impact of short-term fundamentals still look
Property market in the short term, does the stock market and economic news will be affected by the impact of so many psychological barriers to buyers and sellers, landlords are more willing to dump prices, and potential buyers bid on the more conservative. But from the perspective of a long line, not too far that would look at the history of the past decade. Readers can easily find, since SARS in 2003, HSI has risen to 07, and the property market rose early in 2005 after the main places rampant, but in October 2007 after the stock market peaked, prices started upward move, even if 2008 financial crisis, the stock market fell to 2004 levels, only the callback property to the early 2007's upward move. Today, the stock market peak in 2007 has not yet returned, but the prices have more than 2008 before the financial tsunami, an increase of about 5 percent.
Thus, the stock and property markets are the two markets, although the economy will affect their performance, but each subject to different fundamental factors, the leading property market factors, such as: less new supply, low interest rates, low unemployment, high inflation and other factors In the coming year has not changed. Therefore, the analysis of property market in the stock market when compared with the blind bear in mind to affect judgments.

August 20, 2011

Hui pen on the floor - Kwong Chi Fai

Managing Director of Century 21 Property Tseung Kwan O, Hong Kong in 2004 was appointed vice president of the Chamber of Professional Property Consultants, the real estate business for over Nianzai, rooted in Tseung Kwan O. 15 years. Their experience with you about the property market, on the policy.

hyenergix

22-08-11, 16:33

我是新加坡人. 你是什么人?

I thought this is an English forum that's why I asked.

Ok never mind... my Chinese not so powderful (especially traditional Chines) but I hope the rest of you guys enjoy the article.

10 years later I think Chinese economy (if there is no crash in China) might rule the world. Our trade with China is increasing and we will be more dependent on China for non-oil export: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/economy/ess/essa67.pdf My Chinese language is not strong either, but I'm trying my best to read so that I can keep up with the changes.

howgozit

22-08-11, 18:09

10 years later I think Chinese economy (if there is no crash in China) might rule the world. Our trade with China is increasing and we will be more dependent on China for non-oil export: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/economy/ess/essa67.pdf My Chinese language is not strong either, but I'm trying my best to read so that I can keep up with the changes.

Yep you are right China is on track to rule the world.

But for me, to know Chinese is more for heritage reasons rather than economic reasons. The truth is, even our best Singapore student in the Chinese language is only considered average in China, we'll never beat them.

For me, I am just working on a proficiency that hopefully doesn't embarass that's all. Traditional Chinese? haha..worse, but not to worry, Hong Kongers and Taiwanese will forgive me lah.

Cheers!

ikan bilis

23-08-11, 18:40

Everything shrinking... I went to best denki: fridge becomes slimmer but taller.. washing machine also so slim that like drum could hit/knock the sides easily... and most of the dinning tables drawn on new 2bdr floorplans are KFC size tables... :banghead:

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(BizTimes) Published August 23, 2011

More units cranked out as home sizes shrink

Study shows that actual number of private homes on GLS sites exceeded estimates

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE)

A study by Savills Singapore has put some hard numbers to the big lure of small apartments. Developers have been squeezing out more units on sites bought at state land tenders in recent years than was initially estimated.

The study was based on 51 private housing sites including seven executive condo (EC) plots sold under the 2006-2010 Government Land Sale (GLS) Programme and took in projects launched up to Aug 10 this year.

The total number of private homes actually generated on these sites will exceed the GLS Programme estimates by about 11 per cent. Excluding EC sites, the surplus supply is slightly higher at 12 per cent.

Urban Redevelopment Authority's spokesperson said: 'The estimated number of residential units in the GLS announcement is intended to serve as a guide only.'

Once developers that have bought sites at state tenders receive planning approvals, URA uses actual supply numbers for estimating pipeline supply.
Savills' study shows that the supply from projects on each of eight sites exceed the supply estimate in the GLS Programme by more than 40 per cent. Savills found that a substantial portion of units in these developments are below 800 sq ft, and in some cases, even under 500 sq ft.

While shoebox units have fuelled the trend of developers minting more units in their projects, this was mitigated by ECs, a public-private hybrid housing form targeted at families and where units are larger. The government began selling EC land in 2010 after a five-year hiatus.

Another finding in the study is that the trend of producing 'surplus' units over the GLS Programme supply estimate gathered momentum after 2007. Private residential sites tendered under the 2007 GLS Programme generated just about 3 per cent more units than estimated in the Programme. This surplus increased to 9 per cent for sites sold in the 2008 GLS slate, 14 per cent for 2009 plots and - if EC sites are included - 15 per cent for 2010 GLS sites. If EC sites are excluded, the last figure would be 19 per cent.

During the 2007 luxury housing boom, large apartments were in vogue, but demand for them thinned when the Global Financial Crisis erupted in 2008. 'When the home buying recovery began in 2009, developers took to building smallish units to make the lumpsum apartment price more affordable to a larger pool of buyers while achieving higher per square foot prices,' notes Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong. Besides shoebox units (loosely defined as below 500 sq ft), sizes of two and three-bedders have also shrunk to 'compact' units at some projects.

Savills highlighted that projects with more than 40 per cent 'surplus units' generally have a substantial portion of small units. Examples include Allgreen's Suites at Orchard at Handy Road, where 47 per cent of the project's total 118 units are below 800 sq ft, and the 360-unit Skysuites@Anson at Enggor Street, with 44 per cent of units under 500 sq ft and 88 per cent below 800 sq ft.

Far East Organization projects The Greenwich at Seletar Road, The Tennery in Bukit Panjang and the recently launched Euhabitat at Jalan Eunos have 50 per cent, 67 per cent and 59 per cent respectively of units below 800 sq ft - though all units are above 500 sq ft.

Savills' figures show that 'surplus production' tends to be smaller for EC plots - in line with the fact that EC projects do not include one bedders. If EC sites are excluded, the proportion of surplus private homes on sites sold under the 2010 GLS Programme against the supply estimate was 19 per cent. If ECs are included, the surplus is just 15 per cent.

This difference is more pronounced for plots in the H2 2010 slate, with 19 per cent 'surplus units' if EC sites are excluded and 13 per cent if they are included. This is on the back of three EC projects released on H2 2010 sites - the 315-unit Belysa in Pasir Ris, the 602-unit Blossom Residences at Segar Road and 504-unit RiverParc Residence in Punggol.

URA said it regularly reviews space standards, that is, gross floor area per housing unit, used to estimate the number of homes that can be generated from GLS sites for residential developments. 'The most recent review, which covers residential projects in all locations..., was done in 2010 and the updated space standards were adopted since the H1 2011 GLS Programme,' its spokesperson said.

DTZ South-east Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah observed that over the past 15-20 years, the typical size of a three-bedroom apartment has shrunk from about 1,600 sq ft to 1,200 sq ft, with compact three bedders at 1,000-1,100 sq ft.

'This trend has been driven by the increase in land prices and pressure to keep lumpsum home prices affordable, as well as population increase, smaller family sizes, advent of small home appliances - even vacuum cleaners are smaller these days - and changes in lifestyle patterns with the Gen Y wanting their own place,' said Mrs Ong.

ikan bilis

23-08-11, 22:16

this 1 not that real estate related but provides glimpse into current world economy.... :beats-me-man:

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Aug 22, 2011

Nouriel Roubini: Is Capitalism Doomed?

The massive volatility and sharp equity-price correction now hitting global financial markets signal that most advanced economies are on the brink of a double-dip recession. A financial and economic crisis caused by too much private-sector debt and leverage led to a massive re-leveraging of the public sector in order to prevent Great Depression 2.0. But the subsequent recovery has been anemic and sub-par in most advanced economies given painful deleveraging.

Now a combination of high oil and commodity prices, turmoil in the Middle East, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, eurozone debt crises, and America’s fiscal problems (and now its rating downgrade) have led to a massive increase in risk aversion. Economically, the United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan are all idling. Even fast-growing emerging markets (China, emerging Asia, and Latin America), and export-oriented economies that rely on these markets (Germany and resource-rich Australia), are experiencing sharp slowdowns.

Until last year, policymakers could always produce a new rabbit from their hat to reflate asset prices and trigger economic recovery. Fiscal stimulus, near-zero interest rates, two rounds of “quantitative easing,” ring-fencing of bad debt, and trillions of dollars in bailouts and liquidity provision for banks and financial institutions: officials tried them all. Now they have run out of rabbits.

Fiscal policy currently is a drag on economic growth in both the eurozone and the UK. Even in the US, state and local governments, and now the federal government, are cutting expenditure and reducing transfer payments. Soon enough, they will be raising taxes.

Another round of bank bailouts is politically unacceptable and economically unfeasible: most governments, especially in Europe, are so distressed that bailouts are unaffordable; indeed, their sovereign risk is actually fueling concern about the health of Europe’s banks, which hold most of the increasingly shaky government paper.

Nor could monetary policy help very much. Quantitative easing is constrained by above-target inflation in the eurozone and UK. The US Federal Reserve will likely start a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), but it will be too little too late. Last year’s $600 billion QE2 and $1 trillion in tax cuts and transfers delivered growth of barely 3% for one quarter. Then growth slumped to below 1% in the first half of 2011. QE3 will be much smaller, and will do much less to reflate asset prices and restore growth.

Currency depreciation is not a feasible option for all advanced economies: they all need a weaker currency and better trade balance to restore growth, but they all cannot have it at the same time. So relying on exchange rates to influence trade balances is a zero-sum game. Currency wars are thus on the horizon, with Japan and Switzerland engaging in early battles to weaken their exchange rates. Others will soon follow.

Meanwhile, in the eurozone, Italy and Spain are now at risk of losing market access, with financial pressures now mounting on France, too. But Italy and Spain are both too big to fail and too big to be bailed out. For now, the European Central Bank will purchase some of their bonds as a bridge to the eurozone’s new European Financial Stabilization Facility. But, if Italy and/or Spain lose market access, the EFSF’s €440 billion ($627 billion) war chest could be depleted by the end of this year or early 2012.

Then, unless the EFSF pot were tripled – a move that Germany would resist – the only option left would become an orderly but coercive restructuring of Italian and Spanish debt, as has happened in Greece. Coercive restructuring of insolvent banks’ unsecured debt would be next. So, although the process of deleveraging has barely started, debt reductions will become necessary if countries cannot grow or save or inflate themselves out of their debt problems.

So Karl Marx, it seems, was partly right in arguing that globalization, financial intermediation run amok, and redistribution of income and wealth from labor to capital could lead capitalism to self-destruct (though his view that socialism would be better has proven wrong). Firms are cutting jobs because there is not enough final demand. But cutting jobs reduces labor income, increases inequality and reduces final demand.

Recent popular demonstrations, from the Middle East to Israel to the UK, and rising popular anger in China – and soon enough in other advanced economies and emerging markets – are all driven by the same issues and tensions: growing inequality, poverty, unemployment, and hopelessness. Even the world’s middle classes are feeling the squeeze of falling incomes and opportunities.

To enable market-oriented economies to operate as they should and can, we need to return to the right balance between markets and provision of public goods. That means moving away from both the Anglo-Saxon model of laissez-faire and voodoo economics and the continental European model of deficit-driven welfare states. Both are broken.

The right balance today requires creating jobs partly through additional fiscal stimulus aimed at productive infrastructure investment. It also requires more progressive taxation; more short-term fiscal stimulus with medium- and long-term fiscal discipline; lender-of-last-resort support by monetary authorities to prevent ruinous runs on banks; reduction of the debt burden for insolvent households and other distressed economic agents; and stricter supervision and regulation of a financial system run amok; breaking up too-big-to-fail banks and oligopolistic trusts.

Over time, advanced economies will need to invest in human capital, skills and social safety nets to increase productivity and enable workers to compete, be flexible and thrive in a globalized economy. The alternative is – like in the 1930s – unending stagnation, depression, currency and trade wars, capital controls, financial crisis, sovereign insolvencies, and massive social and political instability.

ikan bilis

26-08-11, 10:44

26 Aug 2011... TODAYonline
=> Colin Tan's advice (To newbie): Go for subsidised new HDB flats, and hold back any investment on private condo.... ;)

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Advice for newly-formed households

Go for subsidised new HDB flats - it is your entitlement
by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Aug 26, 2011

In a weekend feature article, prospective buyers of homes - both for own occupation and for investment - got a huge dose of advice from property experts, consultants and even developers. Much of the advice was not new but there were many good reminders amid the volatile and uncertain economic environment - both locally and globally.

However, the needs of newly-formed households were not addressed as most had assumed that the majority in this group do not really have a choice but to apply for new public housing flats.

But in case you are one of those new households in a dilemma as to what you should do because you have a choice, I would say: Go for new public housing flats if you qualify, even if you can afford better. After all, it is every citizen's entitlement to subsidised housing. Why buy a private unit that is not subsidised?

And unless your housing needs leave you with no choice, avoid buying HDB resale flats as prices today are determined by a very unusual set of market circumstances - a combination of a severe supply crunch and a wayward price spiral in the private housing market. With sounder housing policies being put in place, such a scenario would not likely happen again for a very long time.

For all households, affordability should be a top concern. You do not want to spend your whole life working to pay off your mortgage or have your chances of upgrading minimised. Remember, HDB resale flat prices are at their highest now. Yes, they may continue to rise for a bit more due to the current supply crunch - but what after that?

Also in my opinion, the current prices are unsustainable. The majority of new households just cannot afford them, which is why the HDB is selling a lot more new flats - 25,000 units this year and another 25,000 in the next. Leave the market to those who do not have a choice. The premium factor for resale flats today may also negate whatever CPF housing grant you may be receiving.

With the recent raising of the household income ceiling to S$12,000 per month for Executive Condominium (EC) units, more households now qualify for them. If you are one of those thinking of EC apartments as your first buy, do remember that the units are priced to achieve a profit and at a level that the market can bear. Under the current market conditions, who do you think has the upper hand? Moreover, you are competing with the sandwiched class who have no choice but to apply for ECs.

If you are thinking of the investment potential of your first buy and you want to buy something other than new HDB flats, you would be wise to set this thought aside in the current economic environment. It is already difficult to arrive at a "correct" choice in a stable market, what more when the present environment is in such a turmoil.

Nobody can predict the future. When you consider the investment potential of a purchase, you are actually gambling. You are taking a position on the market - that it will continue to rise in the future. It was less of a gamble in the past as Singapore - or the world for that matter - was a lot less complex than it is today.

Most new households are not sophisticated in that they do not follow the developments in the housing market closely. But those who do may be worried about the oversupply of HDB resale flats some seven to eight years down the road. This is because the 50,000 HDB flats sold this year and the next will mature then. Will resale prices be depressed then?

Anything can happen between now and then to drastically alter the market scenario. Nevertheless, with more selling their units, you can expect prices to be softer. And if there is no support from HDB upgraders, mass market private prices will have to come down to link the two markets again.

If you think about it, it is not really a negative situation to sell low and buy low when upgrading. In fact, it is the ideal situation. The loan quantum needed is actually smaller to sell lower and buy lower by, say 10 per cent, than to sell higher and buy higher by 10 per cent. Work it out yourself.

The writer is head of research & consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

ikan bilis

01-09-11, 23:32

Sorry ah... another one in cantonese-chinese... no translation... :beats-me-man:

公屋-rental flat, like HDB rental flat
居屋-govt subsidised flat, like BTO-HDB here
置業-Buy/Own properties
樓奴-Mortgage slave
止蝕-Cutting loss
特別印花稅- SSD, Special Stamp Duty, Similar to our Seller's Stamp Duty

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買樓自住，何需理會世界經濟形勢

　　很多人在網上討論樓市去向，往往引經據典，印圖列表，甚至將世界經濟形勢，國與國之間的和睦關係亦作考慮。如此小心、謹慎，最後的結果是永遠亦不用置業。

　　但又不能說他們是錯的，置業是人生大事，畢生投資，有時勝負真的是在此一役。若果將置業的問題簡化一些，置業是自住的話，亦即是個人的需要，只要因應個人的能力，何需理會世界經濟形勢。

　　三國時，司馬懿說諸葛亮一生謹慎，不會佈空城計，因此不敢揮軍進入空城，錯失大好良機。其實，司馬懿又何嘗不是謹慎？若果，他當時量力而為，分兵一半進入空城，諸葛亮亦會成為階下囚。

　　若果購買自住物業持相當謹慎的態度，又要憂天下之憂而憂。而世界經濟形勢，又瞬息萬變，正是顧得頭來腳反筋，如何會置業？最後，一定會錯失很多機會。依我所見，毋須理會那些因素，只考慮純個人問題，量力而為，是否置業？這個問題便會簡單得多。

　　當某人決定置業時，便會出現很多軍師，並不是說「Location，Location，Location」，而是說「小心，小心，小心」，這些都是紅鬚軍師，倒米壽星。若果是置業者同輩，他們的說話實際帶有醋味，若果是置業者長輩，凡事叫人小心這一條是金科玉律。不過，亦沒有鼓勵性、積極性，不說也罷。

　　若果有後輩問我置業的問題，我只會回答一個字「好」，要我再加上一些句字，我只會再說「要量力而為」。

　　其實，有很多人在置業時心大心細，不斷問人，其實並不是尋求答案，而是心裡仍未決定置業，只不過當有人向他們說，要小心，要看世界經濟形勢，置業要認真考慮。他日，他們未有置業，但樓價上升，他們便會指責曾經出主意的朋友，說若果不是他們阻撓，便會一早置業，現在是損失慘重，所以，有人問我，我真的是只會說一個「好」字。

　　初次置業者並不是不需要考慮，反而要作多方面考慮。首先，置業後定必要放棄一些優質生活，少坐的士，少上餐館，少蒲酒吧，因為家裡便是一個安樂窩，但慢慢地會發覺一切的犧牲都是值得的，十年八載後，物業升值，亦即是個人資產增多，回想過往的辛酸，淡淡哀愁中亦有快感。願有物業者，共勉之。

　　與此同時，他們可能亦會受到同輩嘲笑，說他是「樓奴」，何不申請「公屋」，他日更有機會申請「居屋」，不用給地產商搾取利潤，亦見同輩終日優哉游哉，此實在是最難抵擋的挑戰及誘惑。

　　從第二間物業開始，置業者亦要有所改變，今次一定要謹慎為主，亦要參詳外來因素，供需問題，利息走勢，因為第二個物業並不能夠分類成為個人需要，而是投資，為此亦要看清形勢，否則，投資錯誤是會影響個人及家庭，必需小心。

　　不過，尚未作出首次置業的人士亦不用太心急，若樓市繼續向上，政府必定會再出辣招，使樓價向下調整。當樓價下跌一定時間後，政府必家會放寬一些措施，銀行亦會放寬按揭，來使樓價穩定。屆時，是入市良機，請注意。

汤文亮紀惠集團行政總裁
01/09/2011

Komo

02-09-11, 08:19

Must read in Cantonese then can appreciate the article:D :D

ikan bilis

06-09-11, 09:30

About speculators, flippers, investors, stuckists, self-staying, market critics... :scared-2:

短炒- flipping
套現- Cash out
地產霸權- Real Estate Bullies, refering to big HK developers
居屋- Subsidized flats, same as BTO-HDB here
客觀- Objective point of view
興之所至- Driven by mood/enthusiasm
筍盤- undervalue property (笋在广东话里面是好,划算的意思,这是音译,平时广东话里说的"笋嘢",就是指好的,划算的东西或事情. 笋盘在这里指的就是性价比好的楼盘,这是完完全全的广东话音译, Source: Baidu)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
買樓最忌口不對心
文章日期：2011年9月5日

【明報專訊】若有人問筆者，投資包括買樓的最大敵人為何？我一定會回答是「口不對心」，又或是對自己不誠實。

實在見得太多，有人明明是想短炒，但市道逆轉時，卻變成了長線投資者，才會出現所謂被人「一Q清袋」的情。又有一些人，入市時說自己是長線投資者，但只要樓價稍錄升幅，便急不及待地賣樓套現，然後說錢放進口袋裏，才是自己的，之後，樓市升完再升，便歸咎「地產霸權」害人。

又好像一些不斷要求政府復建居屋的人士，市場明明有大量二手居屋供應，卻等了又等，非新居屋不買，但如2008年金融海嘯時，政府出售居屋貨尾，申請人數卻又是慘不忍睹。

對自己不誠實難客觀部署

一些說自己是用家，但卻不怕貴的只會追買高水新盤，買了後發覺樓價升幅不及同區二手樓，又會說被發展商所騙……。

筆者不是為發展商說話，只是想說，當一個人對自己也不誠實，又如何會客觀的分析市道，以及作理智的部署？從來，成功的投資者，都不會是興之所至做入市或出市決定，而是早早作出部署，當遇到機會，便會按早已作出的計劃行動，又或當市道與預期有所出入時，也能冷靜面對，從容應付。

本報在7月時舉辦的樓市研討會，當時邀得管理市值近200億元資產的紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮作演講嘉賓，他當時指出，樓市確存在不明朗因素，現時炒家不能做，自住看能力，作為有實力的投資者，則可繼續做「收租佬」，採取「不賣少買」的策略，即既不用沽出優質物業，但要入貨，則要遇見「筍盤」才考慮。

廖太少買不賣說到做到

他是否只說不做，又或口不對心？紀團集團近期確未見減磅，而湯文亮更在上周五，為其姐姐、紀惠主席廖湯慧靄簽約，以2.51億元，以私人身分購入九龍塘施他佛道4號屋地，每呎樓面成交地價高達4.16萬元，創區內屋地地價新高，以行動印證其「不賣少買」的說法。
前述的成功投資者要有部署，更要有實力，就如這宗成交，原來廖太早於4年前已以2.38億元購入毗鄰的施他佛道6至8號，今回再購入4號，地皮價值勢可產生協同效應。想一想，如廖太一早因6至8號屋已大幅升值而沽出獲利，又或在近期銀行收水喉而實力不足，便也難趁調整市，完成「千金難買相連地」的機會。

■本文同時收錄在逢周一至周五「明報置業網」：
property.mpfinance.com的《陸振球專欄》
陸振球

Laguna

06-09-11, 10:38

why, so many are now interested in HK property market?

some of the news/opinions I read
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.com/info.html
http://www.ricacorp.com.hk/cms/template.aspx?series=1
http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci.htm
http://forum.hkpropertycity.net/phpbb2/index.php

The articles in this topic were copied from one of these links

ikan bilis

19-09-11, 16:23

I have no intention to buy any HK properties. Me just a small fish... :ashamed1:

Following HK news closely because of HK market is very similar to S’pore market, and HK side their responses/reactions are faster and more volatile.
- Both markets flooded with liquidity
- Both markets having problems of low interest rate
- Foreign buyers (Mainland China) buying up the properties in both markets
- Similar types of cooling measures, SSD 15-16%, Low LTV (40-50% downpayment)
- Same problems of shortages of subsidized flats

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This writer here had been always a big BULL in real estate, so please read with a big spoon of salt. :D

Anyway, what he says is quite true… Some buying-power “Energy” keeps building up, and when will be the next volcanic eruption?
- People’s savings building up
- More liquidity/carry trade from USA/Europe
- More immigrants or FT
:beats-me-man:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
市場購買力何時會爆發？

　　政府壓抑樓價，打擊炒樓，收緊按揭，但樓價不跌，成交量則減少了很多。事實上，每一日市場上都會積聚一些購買力，連同外來因素。若果，他日購買力爆發，樓價只有上升一途，問題是﹕幾時？

　　無論股市、樓市或其他商品，都會有不同聲音，不同理論說上升，抑或下跌。在年初時，差不多所有股票大師都說恒指今年會超越28,000點，其中又有不少大師已經修改，現在他們又改口說﹕「恒指今年內會下跌至18,000點，亦應有支持力」。不過，大家亦不在意，因為近年港人炒賣股票已經沒有往日那麼瘋狂，投資金額亦不會很大，所以輸贏都不大上心。況且，大家都設定了一條死線，到達底線便入貨，達到頂線便沽貨，亦不理會甚麼專家的言論，所以政府又要加時，又要開拓多一些品種美其名說來吸引投資，其實是炒賣。對此以下，又以各種措施打壓樓市，真的是有點無可奈何。

　　當市道上升時，股票與樓宇是有不同，在股票市場，正如股神四叔所說，在升至某一點會放一些股票，升至另一點亦會放一些，其他人亦會是一樣，當股票越升，股民手上的股票會越少，樓市便不同，當市民積聚了一批購買力，而政府亦開始放寬措施，樓市上升，市民本身的資產便會形成了購買力，推動樓市繼續上升，而市民的資產繼續升值，形成了更多購買力，直至樓價與市場脫節或者政府再度使出打擊炒樓措施。

　　今次政府使出打擊炒樓措施，最初的如意算盤是樓價可以急速地下跌30%，讓那些未有上車的人把握機會上車，該批購買力可以將樓價穩定下來，慢慢再將樓市推上。

　　但出招後，樓價是出乎意料之外，不跌反升，在出招前未有置業的人士依然未有置業，再加上一年來積聚的購買力，實在是非同小可，幾時會爆？可以這樣說，隨時。

　　本來，按正常情況，美國應該加息，而香港金管局要求的壓力測減利率亦訂於4.5%，在此利率下，將會消耗殆盡很多人置業的信心，但佰南克宣佈長期低息政策，無形中加強港人置業信心，使人們覺得在現時情況，樓市下跌的機會已經不大，只有等候大家一起行動的時間，屆時，便會一窩蜂地置業，樓市會有一輪急速升勢。

　　日後樓市的走勢不會是波浪形，將會是每一次都會急速的上升，時間快而短。當購買力消耗殆盡後，樓市便會維持在該水平，或者會有小幅度下調，直至市場又儲蓄一定購買力，再爆發，再上升。是甚麼形態？是梯形。

　　當然，樓市的走勢又不是如此這般的容易預測，但是這樣的升市最少可以維持2次至3次，樓市亦會會有大約15%至20%升幅。若果是預測準確，政府將會受很大壓力，當日相信政府有能力將樓價壓下去的人，不但已經付了很多年租金，樓價更上升至一個更難負擔的水平，他們不會將怨氣指向政府，而是將怨氣指向一些有樓人士，或者當然是地產霸權。在利息未上調前，政府唯有增加供應來減低樓價升勢，但若果供應太多，適逢利息上調，樓價便會有很大壓力，亦非政府及普羅市民之福，應小心處理。

　　昨天賣地後，有投行表示港樓價會下跌三成，其實，今次賣地成績比九肚山好，地價相差1仟多元，他日售價一定相差5仟多元。其次，其他中、小型地產商有能力參與拍賣的土地成交價其實不俗，所以，政府應改變一下勾地及土地拍賣方法。

　　樓市瞬間萬變，現階段應一動不如一靜，大家應保護自己資產，待謀定而後動，一於「任憑風浪起，穩坐釣魚船」。

汤文亮紀惠集團行政總裁
07/09/2011

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樓市尚未具備大跌條件

　　甚麼是大跌？我相信是最少跌3成或以上。換句話說，以中原指數最高點大約100點計算下跌3成，即是下跌至70點。雖然有評論員、有學者認為有可能，但我個人認為，樓市尚未具備下跌至如此地步的條件。

　　有人會說，樓市從1997年高峰，下跌至2003年，足足有70%，今次下跌3成怎麼不大可能，說這話的人一些未經歷過1997年樓市的風險，他們當然經歷過1997，但只是在其年份，並不身處樓市買賣交易當中，故此說這話。若果他們知道人們在1997年怎樣投資物業，其瘋狂程度與現今的人相比，可以說是一在地平一在天，沒有瘋狂的上升，又何來會沒有理性急挫？況且，現在投資物業的人，早已吸取前人投資失誤的教訓，小心投資，所以我這樣說，大跌的條件尚未形成。要大跌，首先全港參與投資物業的人數激增，「摸」貨轉讓頻繁，樓價只是出現乾升現象。現在，最新「摸」貨成交量佔市場不足1%，而且，成交的物業大多數是宣佈徵收特別印花稅前已買入。現在獲利「摸」走而已，沒有「摸」貨影響，樓價上升是確確實實，要下跌亦要確確實實，並不是撻訂便算了。這樣，持貨的人要三思後才會將物業出售。

　　其次是欠債比率，我沒有確實數據1997當時的物業持有人的平均欠債比率，但「摸」貨撻訂導致樓市急速下挫三成，不少物業已經變成銀主盤。如今，欠債比率是54%，就算樓市下跌3成，銀主盤亦不會多，沒有銀主盤，即是銀行沒有權將按揭物業劈價出售，樓市大跌的可能性亦不大。

　　促使業主不將物業出讓其中一個主因是回報，1997年物業空置率偏高，業主們不斷降價求租，將租金推低至一個極不合理的水平。有些商業大廈，租金與管理費差不多，實在是非常恐怖。當時的業主或投資物業的人，都是抱著做一日和尚敲一日鐘的心態，亦知道物業會隨時變成銀主盤，只是希望風雨早一日過去而已。

　　回報差，但是支出大。正常的利息支出已經比現在大了數倍，若果是資不抵債的話，更加要付出多一些利息，可以說是百上加斤。當時擁有物業的人，若借貸太重，利息是每日蠶食資產，若情況不改變，總有一日會變成負資產者，所以有不少人迫不得已將物業出售。

　　今日當然是不同，低息早已持續多年，伯南克表明最少亦有兩年低息，但租金則超越1997，更有上升趨勢。換句話說，今日的業主每日都會減少一些債項，終有一日，所擁有的物業變成「零」負債。若果不過分投資，現今投資物業可以說是有贏冇輸，就算現在買樓都不是傻仔。

　　大家可能有一個誤解，認為國內人士炒賣香港的樓宇。其實，每一位國內人士他們只不過買一層樓作自住或投資，很少牽涉炒賣，但人數實在太多，他們只是買貴香港樓宇。

　　尚有很多利好的因素，例如失業率比1997年低得多，移民離開的人減少，而回流的人增多，物業亦是必需品，在供少需多的情況下，樓價上升亦是正常的。

　　但是今日閣下問是否是置業良機？我認為既然這麼多年都沒有買樓，倒不如多等一會，就算樓價上升只是損失了機會，倘若下跌就會輸掉老本，不值得冒險。

汤文亮紀惠集團行政總裁
19/09/2011

ikan bilis

19-09-11, 16:33

Some news here...
Beijing Sub-Urban property prices crashed by 50%
GuangZhou property prices crashed by 20%

... Ummm... how true??... :scared-4:
... HeeHee... me also don't know... :D

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://society.people.com.cn/GB/15670706.html

京郊楼盘降价一半以上退房或补差价缺乏法律依据

人民网记者曾高飞
2011年09月15日17:58 来源：人民网 (http://www.people.com.cn/) 手机看新闻 (http://mms.people.com.cn/GB/)

　　在中央政府对房价宏观调控影响下，北京住房市场观望情绪继续加剧，开发商在2011年中秋假期出师不利，期待“金九银十”赚一把的想法正在落空。

　　价格战悄然拉开京郊楼盘降价一半以上

　　很多开发商都想打好“金九银十”的开局之仗。所以，他们备足了资源，准备中秋假期大干一场。

　　位于北京通州的京贸国际城把房价一调再调，从2010年的2.6万/平米下调到1.98万元/平米，但近日再推特价房，直降6000元，均价降至1.4万—1.5万元/平米，仅为最高值的约50%。

　　通州曾经领涨北京房市。由北京珠江房地产开发有限公司开发的珠江拉维小镇曾经领涨通州。在中秋期间，拉维小镇成了“降价急先锋”。记者看到，拉维小镇在建项目的围墙上刷着斗大的墙体广告语，就是以价格为主要诉求点，那几个大字为“直降50万”。

　　据业内人士介绍，北京偏远郊县房价已经跌回到两年前，即与2009年底的价格不相上下。最高时卖到2.8万元/平米的通州地王房产项目润枫领尚，目前出现了不到最高价时一半的价格，即1.3万元/平米。在通州以半价出售的楼盘，已经不止润枫领尚一家。通州二手房十大低价楼盘均价已经低至6400元/平米。

　　大兴和房山，低价楼盘已经批量出现，新楼盘价格已经明显下降。9月11日，有微博称，大兴地铁口附近多个二手楼盘均价已经跌破1万元/平米。海淀也出现了1.4万/平米的楼盘。曾经平均价格接近3万/平米的望京，均价跌破了2万/平米，有的已经喊出了1.9万/平米。链家地产销售员小李向记者介绍，低价楼盘在北京已经小规模出现，最近均价在1.5万/平米的楼盘数量已经突破了十家。

　　产经观察家彭雄江认为，目前市场对房价下行幅度还有很大预期，开发商不下“猛药”已经无法刺激消费者的购房“欲望”，与此同时，开发商面临年终业绩盘点和资金紧张等问题“逼宫”，到了把价格作为提升销量主要手段的关键时刻。

　　“金九”已经过半，从上半场的情况来看，今年金九褪色几成定局。据中原地产统计，中秋假期，北京新房成交仅为199套，同比不到50%。而业内预计北京年内库存量或超过13万套。

　　退房和补偿差价无法理依据专家呼吁理性购房

　　房价快速下降刺激着业主的神经，不少在高位价格购房的业主，已经表现出明显的悔意，要开发商退房或者要求补偿差价成为他们的主要诉求。

　　京贸国际城一位急着退房的黄姓业主对记者抱怨：我们当初购房碰上房价涨得厉害，所以在最高点入市了，现在一下子掉到一万四五，不到一年时间100多万资产说没就没了。

　　负责世华泊郡开发的世纪鸿城销售副总经理陈维其向记者透露，已经有业主由于不满当初售价过高，现在要求退房。半年降价6000元的京贸国际城，则在中秋假期遭遇了业主集体要求退房和补偿差价的风波。

　　中国营销学会副理事长洪仕斌认为，随着调控导致的房价下跌，要求退房情况或将规模出现，因为购房价格实在太高，现在房价下降空间很大，巨大落差难让购房者心理平衡。

　　洪仕斌认为，从开发商自身利益和目前形势来看，开发商是不愿意退房和补偿差价的，特别是在房产市场形势不好的关键时候，如果退房和补偿差价的闸门一旦打开，局面将变得难以收拾。

　　购房合同一旦签订，买和卖似乎是周瑜打黄盖——一方愿打，一方愿挨的事。开发商不愿退房和补偿差价，也合情合法，只能怪业主购房时没把握好机会。“除非购房合同有约定，房价下降开发商需要补偿差价外，业主购买房产就应承担房价波动的风险。”湖南溥天律师事务所唐波律师在接受记者采访时表示，购房合同双方是平等法律关系主体，只要开发商已经取得了法律规定的证件，合同内容本身合法，签订的购房合同是具有法律效力的。不会因房价的波动，而影响购房合同本身的效力。

　　唐波认为，目前普遍采用的购房合同是房产局的范本，此范本不包括房价下跌业主可以要求退房或者补偿差价的规定。所以，消费者理智购房才是上策。

　　洪仕斌表示，政府调控效果显现，此轮房价涨跌的经验教训有利于培养房产市场的理智消费意识，而理性购房时代的到来将有利于促进房地产市场的稳定规范发展。

（责任编辑：崔东）

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http://house.people.com.cn/GB/15658049.html

中秋三日广州楼市销量同比跌六成均价降近二成

赵燕华
2011年09月14日15:18 来源：《羊城晚报》 (http://www.ycwb.com.cn/) 手机看新闻 (http://mms.people.com.cn/GB/)

　　中秋三天，广州一手楼市遭遇了一轮“冷空气”侵袭，全市成交量同比大幅跌落61.8%，成交均价同比下降18.2%。

　　记者踩盘发现，相较于当前众多开发商抢先推货，试水“十一”的热闹场面，购房者则心态谨慎。有业内人士则表示，整体来看今年下半年楼市成交量仍然会较淡。

　　根据网易房产监控阳光家缘数据显示，今年中秋三天(9月10日-9月12日)全市十区二市一手住宅网签成交量为355套，同比去年中秋三日(9月20日-9月22日)的929套，下滑幅度达61.8%。成交均价方面，今年中秋三天全市成交均价为11309元/平方米，同比去年中秋三日13831元/平方米的成交均价，下降了18.2%。

　　中秋三日各区冷热不均较明显。根据阳光家缘数据显示，全市十区在今年9月10日-9月12日三天的成交量仅为255套，相较于去年中秋三日787套的成交量，下降幅度达67.6%。而增城、从化两市成交量(100套)同比仅下降29.6%，可见十区成交量的大幅下降拉低了全市的成交量成绩。

　　在当前众多郊区盘大打优惠战的时候，中心城区的房价仍显坚挺。根据网易房产数据中心今日发布的“中秋三日全市网签成交均价前十榜”显示，榜上有名的十“贵”楼盘均位于广州市内十区范围，其中越秀区的爱群荟景湾、天河区的瑞安创逸和荔湾区的龙津华府名列前三，成交均价皆在2万元/平方米以上，爱群荟景湾均价甚至高达5万元/平方米，且无任何优惠。

　　数据显示，中秋三日广州新四区二市(花都、南沙、番禺、黄埔、增城、从化)的成交量为271套，占全市成交量76.3%，其同比下降的幅度也小于中心六区。

　　另外，阳光家缘数据也显示，“金九银十”首周(9月1日-9月9日)仅萝岗、黄埔、花都、南沙四区的成交量就达869套，比上月同期增长了119个百分点。可见，在全市成交量趋冷的情况下，中心六区以外的部分区域楼市仍较为乐观。值得一提的是，目前打折和优惠活动频繁的楼盘也多集中在广州近郊四区与增城、从化两市。

　　广州经纬房产研究部经理朱欣苑表示：“目前的楼市的确较淡。”据其调研发现，目前就整体而言，开发商仍显得比较淡定，大举打折降价的情况也较少。就接下来的十一黄金周来说，由于外部环境不甚乐观，开发商很有可能会继续保持谨慎态度，楼市也会显得相对稳定。

　　另外，朱欣苑分析认为，上半年销量波动较大的中心区，在下半年将呈现供应减少的情况，除了个别楼盘成交量可能会见涨，整体而言中心区下半年成交量将不如上半年。记者赵燕华报道

（责任编辑：孙红丽）

Laguna

20-09-11, 18:10

The impact of the cooling measures is being felt now.
Limiting 2 units per household..and no foreigers' purchase allowed unless with a year stay in the city concerned

Laguna

20-09-11, 18:41

pl read news from bloomberge

China Home Prices Rise in All Cities, Defying State Curbs

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-19/china-home-prices-rise-in-all-cities-defying-state-curbs.html

westman

20-09-11, 19:26

Good information and it save alot of trouble to go to other websites to read.
No offend to fellow forumer, SBR :ashamed1: and I hope more postings like ikan bilis and less "SBR" type of postings. ;)

ikan bilis

21-09-11, 22:05

“Alternative asset classes”

1. All types of real estates to the HongKongers (or HongKi) are “fry-able”… as long as good profit potential… they have car park space fried up to S$200-300K… :scared-4:

2. The write up on Business Time (15 Sep) is very comprehensive... => All you need to know about investing in industrial properties... Cool!.. :spliff:

But hor, I do not suggest anybody to cheong industrial properties now, :tsk-tsk:
as...
- All the speculators had been chased over to industrial properties due to low quantum and no SSD. No bubble in residential (control too tight until you cannot breath) but bubble could form in industrial (boh chenghu there)
- Price already too high now, for example now you could get a 10yr old near MRT EC at ~700psf, but the near MRT 60yr new industrial properties at UBI already hitting ~650psf (bare unit).

BTW: I bought 1 small unit industrial space at ~$150K 4-5yrs ago. Market price at >$320K now, rented out at $2.1K (Heehee... cannot tell you which location/estate)... ;)

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http://the-sun.on.cc/cnt/finance/20110921/00436_020.html

本小利大車位喪炒

政府舊年推出額外印花稅措施遏炒，令住宅炒賣成本大增，唔少投資者轉去炒車位同工商物業，劉Sir有個住喺九龍站擎天半島嘅朋友，年頭已經想買番個車位自用，但最近發現車位價格升幅驚人。睇番擎天半島多達20幾宗車位成交係今年買入再轉售，個別車位更喺半年間五度易手，期內做價累積升一倍。

九龍站屋苑中，以擎天半島車位今年升幅最顯著，依家有部分車位做價已突破100萬元。

好似M層一個雙號車位，今年一月初以約55萬元登記易手，之後喺一月中、三月下旬同四月底三度登記轉售，成交價依次近73萬、近86萬同近100萬元，每名業主賺幅約15至32%。

不過，咁都未算犀利，上述個車位喺今年中又再賣出，成交價已經逼近114萬元，即短短半年做價已累升一倍。

凱旋門車位208萬又破頂

依家九龍區最值錢嘅車位集中喺九龍站，早前創下200萬元九龍區最貴車位嘅凱旋門，最近做價再破頂，一個B1樓車位以208.8萬元售出，輕微打破屋苑對上一次紀錄，保持九龍區首名位置。

而有力挑戰九龍區車位紀錄嘅何文田雅利德樺臺，繼○九年有車位以170萬元賣出後，近期有車位以200萬元賣出，足以媲美九龍站水平。
至於港島區大型屋苑之中，一向以西區嘅寶翠園車位做價遙遙領先，但近年有唔少新樓盤落成，令港島區最高車位價出現平分天下的局面。

港島南南灣近期有單號車位以200萬元易手，平咗寶翠園最高車位價紀錄，而該車位原業主持貨約三個月，帳面速賺47萬元，升幅高逾三成。

近期市況未明，嚟緊政府仲會唔會出招再㩒一㩒住宅樓價升勢仍然係未知，而投資車位相對本小、風險低，相信搶手嘅豪宅車位，炒風依然未完。

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Strata-titled units rising in popularity
Business Times, Published September 15, 2011

TAN BOON LEONG explains how high yields, improved designs and other factors have drawn investors to such industrial properties

PROPERTY investors are channelling more of their funds into alternative asset classes, one of which is the industrial sector. Especially for non-traditional industrial property investors, thinning profit margins from residential developments as a result of high prices and government intervention have led to the switch. New industrial projects offering higher gross rental yields at lower capital outlay have thus become a welcome investment option.

Because of strong demand for strata industrial properties, developers have shown keen interest in building industrial properties. They have been competing for industrial sites, putting in strong bids for some of the recent Government Land Sales (GLS) tenders.

For instance, land bids received for three 30-year industrial sites located next to one other along Pioneer Road North leapt by more than 250 per cent over a 19-month period. The first site sold in December 2009 attracted a top bid of $48 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) and the second plot transacted 12 months later fetched $87 psf ppr. A third site was sold in July this year for $176 psf ppr. The aggressive bids demonstrated developers' confidence in the industrial market in Singapore.

Competition for GLS sites has also gotten tougher with more contenders in the fray. Non-traditional industrial developers have jumped onto the bandwagon to take part in industrial land bidding exercises.

The stellar performance of industrial strata-titled property seen after the Lehman crisis in late 2008 therefore begs two questions: What has been the driving force for the strong performance? Do strata-titled industrial properties make good investments?

Understanding industrial properties

Industrial properties in Singapore are under Business 1 (B1) or Business 2 (B2) zoning. Developments classified under B1 use are meant for light and clean trades which are non-polluting. Such developments are usually found within housing estates. Polluting and general trades are kept in industrial developments zoned for B2 uses and they are located in suburban areas.

The tenure for industrial strata-titled developments can be either freehold or leasehold. A majority of strata-titled developments are built on GLS sites, with tenure ranging from 30 to 60 years.

Similar to residential developments, an industrial development can be divided into many units with individual title. These strata-titled industrial properties are either flatted or terrace developments, with the typical unit size ranging from 1,000 sq ft to 2,000 sq ft for the former, and 5,000 sq ft to 30,000 sq ft for the latter.

Drivers behind the strong performance

* Shift in demand from residential properties to industrial properties

The allure of strata-titled industrial properties was greatly enhanced when stricter government measures were implemented to cool the residential property market. For instance, regardless of the number of industrial properties owned, buyers need to pay only a 20 per cent down payment for each property they purchase, provided they are for their own use. This is much lower than the 40 per cent down payment required for residential property purchasers if they have one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home purchase.

Also, unlike residential property purchasers, industrial property purchasers are not subjected to a high stamp duty if they decide to dispose of their property within one year from the date of purchase.

* Limited strata stock in other asset classes

Unlike other property types such as office and retail which have limited stock for strata sale, there has been a good line-up of strata-titled industrial properties launched in the market. Some of the recent launches include North Spring Bizhub, CT Hub, 9@Tagore, Oxley Bizhub and T5@Tampines, among others.

* Improved design and specifications

Property purchasers have become more sophisticated and they look for better products and specifications. To cater to purchasers' expectations and to differentiate products from competitors', industrial developers are embarking on the creative route to offer better quality industrial buildings in terms of aesthetics, functionality and specifications.

Industrial strata-titled developments have undergone a great transformation over the last three years. New projects now boast of cutting-edge architectural designs and have amenities such as ramps which allow vehicular access to all levels - some are even designed for 40-foot containers to park right next to the unit. Features not commonly found in older industrial developments such as swimming pools, gymnasiums, landscaped gardens and hotel-like lobbies can be found in newer developments.

* Spill-over demand from office

The industrial property market has continued to benefit from spill-over demand from office users. Qualifying office users in sectors such as software design and information technology, and financial institutions with backend operations, are taking up cheaper industrial premises to seek refuge from high office rents. This has been a strong driving force in raising end-user demand in the market.

* Low interest rates

The current all-time-low SOR (swap offer rate) is highly favourable for genuine buyers. For investors, this translates to either an opportunity to afford larger premises or a lower mortgage payment. For instance, a buyer taking an 80 per cent loan on $500,000 for a 1,500 sq ft unit in North Spring Bizhub would need to make a monthly mortgage payment of $1,400 - based on a 30-year loan with a 1.68 per cent interest per annum. This sum, compared to the latest bid monthly rent of $4,200 for a 1,819 sq ft unit in YS-One (an industrial development next to North Spring Bizhub), has made it more attractive for one to buy a unit than to rent one in the long term.

* Divestment of JTC flatted factories

In July, JTC said that it will be divesting its high-rise ready built factories to the private sector to promote competitiveness and vibrancy in the industrial property market. As a result, existing tenants in these premises will no longer enjoy rental rates which are up to 20 per cent below market rate, especially if the property they are occupying is spun off into a real estate investment trust. Instead of paying a higher rent, some tenants are now finding it more worthwhile to purchase their own premises.

* Good investments

Many investors are attracted to the lower equity needed for industrial properties. The availability of smaller strata-titled industrial units of about 1,000 sq ft to 1,500 sq ft has appealed to a wider range of investors as they are much more affordable compared to residential properties.

For instance, units in a 60-year leasehold industrial property located within a matured industrial location such as Paya Lebar, Ubi and Kallang are currently transacting at about $650 psf to $820 psf. The absolute price for a typical unit is in the range of $650,000 to $1.23 million. Meanwhile, similar units in suburban locations such as Yishun and Woodlands are transacting in the region of about $280 psf to $380 psf. The total price for a typical unit would range from $280,000 to $570,000.

As for buyers who wish to purchase more than one industrial property for their businesses, they are not subject to a higher down payment policy.

The yield generated by industrial leasehold properties is also more attractive than that for other asset classes. Currently, the average yield for 30-year or 60-year leasehold industrial properties ranges from 5 per cent for those located in matured industrial estates to 9 per cent for those in suburban areas.

Downsides

Just as for any type of investment, one should have a good understanding of the product and the market, and should be aware of the downsides before diving in. Some pointers to note when buying an industrial property:

* Unlike buying a residential property, an industrial property buyer has to factor in a 7 per cent Goods and Services Tax on the purchase price. This is because sellers are usually developers which are GST-registered companies.

* Similar to buying commercial properties, the use of CPF money is not allowed for the purchase of industrial properties.

* For owner-occupiers, the Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit is up to 80 per cent of the purchase price. For investors, the LTV is much lower at 60 to 70 per cent.

* When calculating the projected yield, one should consider the possibility of an increase in interest rates in the near future. Initial interest rates are subject to a first-two-year lock-in period.

* Strata-titled industrial properties with a 30-year tenure might be more difficult to dispose of in the resale market, as compared to those with a 60-year tenure.

Conclusion

Current uncertainties in the local stock market and expected higher inflation would have minimum impact on buying sentiment as property investment is generally viewed as a safer investment alternative and also as a hedge against inflation.

The industrial market is expected to see continued interest from investors, given that the fundamentals are generally healthy and improving. This asset class would also continue to benefit from funds diverted from the residential sector, which is facing increasing risks of a supply glut and government intervention.

Moreover, given that interest rates are expected to stay low for another two years coupled with rising inflation, industrial properties would greatly appeal to genuine investors, as it offers the highest yield compared to other property types.

However, the intense competition among developers for GLS industrial sites would translate to a higher break-even cost and units in new developments are likely to be priced higher. Moreover, new amenities would also contribute to higher costs of developing these new developments.

Sellers of existing or older industrial properties, especially those situated in the same vicinity as some of the new developments, would then raise their asking prices. The industrial market would likely undergo another round of price increment, but it would be limited by economic issues such as the US debt crisis, eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the tightening of China's monetary policy.

The outlook for the industrial property market is expected to remain stable with prices and rental growth trending at 5 to 10 per cent for the rest of the year.

Given the strong demand drivers in the market and the attractive returns that industrial properties can offer, strata-titled industrial properties are expected to remain a top choice for investors in the next few years.

The writer is director of industrial services at Colliers International

ikan bilis

26-10-11, 14:54

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pa3.cfm?File=20111026/paa01/agba1h.txt

Close to half of HongKong's new launches bought by "foreigner"-buyers... :scared-3:
But... do not know how accurate is the data analysis... Their govt like dare not publish the data.... :banghead:

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新盤上季成交額內地客首佔逾半
文章日期：2011年10月26日

【明報專訊】雖然今年以來內地持續收緊銀根，但上季內地資金依然撐起香港樓市，尤其一手市場更甚。據中原研究部資料統計顯示，上季一手私樓買賣登記宗數及金額中，內地客分別佔42.1％及51％，兩者均創出有紀錄以來新高。

買一手樓宗數大增佔四成

該數據是於2007年起按季統計，今年次季內地客佔一手買賣宗數比例達31.1％，上季大幅增加11個百分點，達42.1% ，以金額計算更首次突破一手盤銷售的一半。中原研究部聯席董事黃良昇表示，數據反映內地即使收緊銀根，以及本港銀行收緊樓按信貸，仍然無阻內地資金流入香港樓市。

買二手宗數金額同新高

內地客多鍾情一手樓，購入二手物業的比例相對較低，不過上季亦有所增加，佔二手買賣宗數比例約10.1％，金額則佔14.2％，兩者分別按季增加0.9及1.1個百分點。若以整體計算，內地客佔一二手買賣宗數達12.5％，金額則佔22.7％，兩者均創新高，其中金額比例更首度突破兩成。

代理﹕掃貨潮遜去年氣氛不弱

資料顯示，上季一手買賣登記主要涉及新地奧運站瓏璽、嘉里黃大仙現崇山、長實大圍名城2期盛薈，以及恒地大埔比華利山別墅等，其中內地客佔買家比例最高達四成。據代理表示，雖然內地掃貨熱潮明顯不及去年，但每逢周六及周日，售樓處現場仍可見「一車車」內地掃貨大軍到港。

事實上，個別內地豪客更為香港豪宅創出新紀錄，早前已有市場消息指出，湖北武漢出生、於本港上市的卓爾發展主席兼行政總裁閻志或有關人士，以超過1.5億元購入奧運站瓏璽一個天池屋單位，呎價約4.4萬元，不但創下奧運站分層物業新高呎價紀錄，亦成為九龍分層豪宅的第三高價樓王。

股市波動現蝕讓最多兩成

不過，隨近月股市波動，有個別內地客因為班資回朝需蝕讓豪宅。除日前快將入伙的上水天巒首錄內地客勁蝕個案後，巿場消息指出，大埔比華利山別墅3期富匯半島，其中一幢位於銀池道的單號屋，面積5062方呎，一名中港兩地經營生意的內地商人，去年10月以一手價4480萬元購入該項物業，今年上半年因為急於套現，曾經以叫價4500萬元放售；其後隨近期股市波動，剛在一周前再減價900萬元，以3600萬元放售，較原買入價低近兩成。

■明報報料熱線[email protected]/ 9181 4676

Laguna

27-10-11, 09:03

溫州失血中國痛

不甘寂寞的溫州！在溫州動車追尾，展示了溫州人在中國到處炒樓，到山西內蒙古煤礦有色金屬那種居奇買賣的投機行為之外，原來也有人性的溫情。而數月來慢慢發哮的溫州高利貸崩盤傳說，也因溫州眼鏡龍頭企業信泰集團老闆，人稱“眼鏡大王”的胡福林的逃跑進入“跑路”高潮，驚動了中央，連總理溫家寶也帶同央行行長周小川等高官，動車事故剛不到三個月再次親臨這個名聞遐邇的浙南小鎮。

兩年多前，曾經有一位僑居巴黎的溫州朋友賣掉餐館，離開留在法國妻子兒女，回到國內辦實業。幾個月後，在電話中，他向我透露了在安徽合肥正在做“民營信貸”的生意，也就是高利貸。我這位朋友是一個典型溫州人的寫照：草莽出身，離開中國的時候一無所有，來到巴黎白手興家。一天工作十六小時的勤勞，省吃省穿，把累積的錢都投到房地產。有義氣，拿自己辛苦賺的錢幫助朋友

- “實業很難做。炒房地產的人很多，”我的朋友正奔向二線城市投資房地產。
- “你也來合肥看看，我們有一班朋友，有個照顧。”
- “我剛開始做一些小額信貸，”聽他的語氣有點迷惑。“一定要好好控制風險。風險挺大的。”

以溫州為模式的高利貸旋風，就在溫家寶面對華爾街金融風暴的四萬億刺激經濟方案的啟動掀開了帷幕。原本就依賴民間信貸，包括“呈會”或“台會”等中國傳統民間的集資方式，在央行貨幣政策一面倒的傾向於完成刺激經濟方案的基建專案融資，對民企已經困難的資金需求更加雪上加霜。另一方面，小企業經濟的不景氣和房地產投機的暴利，更吸引了民間資金的流向。許多實體企業，包括我的朋友在內，也投入房地產的炒作，高利貸的地下錢莊活動。中國央行的極端寬鬆貨幣政策，尤其是超過三個百分點的負利率政策，成了驅逐銀行儲蓄流向民間高利貸的動力。

百分之三十，四十，甚至年利率百分之六七十，世界上沒有一個企業能夠承受起高利貸的利息支出。民間的高利貸風潮的爆破，只不過是一個時間的問題。在溫州，近來相繼有百位的企業老闆因無法償還高利貸而跑路，相信這現象不是局限於溫州。安徽的合肥，內蒙古的鄂爾多斯…，也有傳聞。溫州民間信貸，對中國中小企業的發展做出了巨大的貢獻，以致發展到今天的高利貸，可以說是中國央行貨幣政策的產物，因為央行的貨幣政策，徹底的扭曲了一個自由經濟體制的正常運作，民間地下錢莊高利貸在供求規律而應運而生。很可惜，央行長期的寬鬆貨幣政策和負利率政策，大力推動通貨膨脹和房地產泡沫，把民間資本引向投機倒把，民間信貸利率也因而不斷攀升，引發泡沫的爆破。這是中國今天經濟的一個縮影。溫州出血，疼在中國的整個經濟。

無論是溫州的高利貸危機的影響範圍有多大，是否波及其他地區和城市，中央的介入可能使情況越加糟糕。其實，一切的革命，包括經濟和金融，都有一班前仆後繼的先烈，他們可能成為犧牲的一群，也有可能脫穎而出，不單止為建立新的金融程式作出貢獻，他們自己也建立起他們的金融王朝。我相信根本不需要溫家寶，溫州的民間或更時髦的“影子銀行業”，會因為這次的高利貸風潮而更加壯大，推動中國金融業走向市場，中國的民間金融業得到壯大。自中國改革開放以來，溫州從來都是見不到中央高官達人的三不管山區和港口，但它卻是街知巷聞的“中國猶太人”出生地。你只要給它自由，它就自己展示出它的生機。“喬家大院”細說了清末的晉商銀號，徽商胡雪岩以錢莊生意賓士中華大地，今天的溫州民間錢莊，會不會製造出浙商的金融神話？溫州人的“影子銀行”，祝你在中華大地好運！

source
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.net/column/?author=PHK_CHANTSANGTO&id=14979

Lovelle

27-10-11, 09:23

ikan bilis

31-10-11, 13:02

note:

this writer is still a real-estate bull hor... his company owns ~HK$20bil in real estate assets...

centaline's index is the most watched real-estate index in hk
http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci.htm
the value is 100 during peak of 1997. Now it is also hovering around that value,

total about ~1000+ of negative equity for housing loan happened in last month, out of all hk mortgages. Those cases are mainly due to high leverage of >90% LTV

The is some slight dip of ~5% in property index of HK in past month, i think it is due to:
- index=100 is a psychological level, it reminds people of the 1997 bubble
- anything crossing index>100, people are expecting the HK govt to come out more harsh property cooling measures
- Govt restarted building of subsidized flats. It had stopped since 2003 (the previous 85K subsidized flat was blamed to crashed the hongkong property market)
- The banks are up-ing the spread portion of mortgage loan (i.e., hibor+x%, the x portion or banks' profit is increased)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

請給我一個樓市下跌30%理由

汤文亮紀惠集團行政總裁
31/10/2011

　　中原指數連跌3週，比最高峰時下跌了3-4點，立即有很多輿論說樓市會調整，我網上的朋友在回應裡亦說，樓市應下調30%，但其他人問他們何以有此理論，但又說不出一個己然，總之是否人云亦云，樓市便會下跌30%。

　　講樓市，不少專家在一年內已經轉軚數次，最近，大家都不其然說，樓市已到達強弩之末，在未來幾年將會下跌50%，既然大家都認定樓市下跌，為什麼又說不出一個理由，這點實在是令人費解。

　　有人說，利息將會颷升，他們的說法沒有錯，利息在不合理的低水平維持了相當耐的時間，但美國經濟仍未復甦，歐洲救市機制已經啟動。若現時歐，美將利息提高，無形中抵銷了一部份救市動力，利息一定要歐，美經濟在真正的復甦出現時，才有機會向上調，現在這個時間似乎仍然是遙遙無期，況且，提出這個論調的專家幾年前已經提出了這個可能性，再提出實在已經是不無新意，希望他們看見有一些實質現象時再提出利息向上這個假設，這樣比較令人信服。

　　雖然最近香港銀行加息，其實亦只不過將低利息提升至一個合理的水平，現在普遍新做按揭實質利息在2.5%，按情理，這仍然是一個低水平，仍然比金管局的壓力測試利率4.5%為少，估計，這個利率將會維持一段相當長的時間，與此同時，回報率普遍有3%以上，相比以往利息長期高於回報已經是好得多。

　　政府將會大量供應土地，樓宇供應數目亦將大幅提高，特首在最後一份施政報告大開綠燈，不但復建居屋，並且廣推土地，令小型住宅單位數目將急劇提升。其實，報告的作用與曹操的望梅止渴差不多，六年才建17,000居屋單位，並且會視乎環境需要而減少，所推的土地最快亦要3-5年才建成，就算新廈落成，地產商亦會視乎需求才決定公開發售的時間表，政府是限制他們建樓的時間，但並沒有限制出售的時間。最後，私人樓宇供應量始終在地產商手中，若市道不佳，他們一定會暫停出售，最主要的原因是香港所有地產商的財政非常穩健，毋需賤賣樓宇套現。

　　人們說我是大好友，其實我並不是，我最擔心會令樓市下跌的原因其實已經出現，負資產個案由3拾多宗大幅飈升3拾多倍，達1,600多宗，雖然相比全盛時期拾多萬宗是不可同日而語，但不要忘記，中原指數只是下跌4點，已經千多宗，若果中原指數回落至89點，亦即是去年11年20日，政府出招時水平，按現時進度，估計負資產個案會上升至2萬宗，大家開始會驚慌，賣盤增多，指數下跌，負資產增加，這是一條連環程式，到那時候，樓市真的是在毫無先兆下調3-4成，這亦不是什麼危言聳聽理論，有話實說而已。

　　不過仍不需要擔心，今次突如其來的負資產者其實都是特權人仕，大多數是在銀行工作的人，95%按揭，就算願意購買保險銀行亦不會批核，既然是特權人仕，銀行亦不會採取行動，負資產變成銀主盤的機會是很少，沒有銀行將銀主盤劈價出售，樓市大跌的可能性變不大，大家亦毋需擔心。

　　其實，真的是有很多理由導致樓市上升，或者下跌，但某些理由又會被另外一些動力抵銷，加加減減，最後亦只會在原地踏步，我真的希望有人給我下一個樓市下跌30%理由。

phantom_opera

31-10-11, 15:28

央行货币政策委员会委员、清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵:

对于房地产调控，李稻葵的观点很坚决：“房地产的调控没有回头路，不可能再回到过去那几年每年10%以上的快速上升阶段。”李稻葵认为，中国经济增长速度再往下降，房地产也不会重新回到过去的形势。他认为，中国经济靠卖地、靠房地产发展的模式已经过去了。

至于货币政策，李稻葵表示：“相信未来五到十年都不会有重大放松，会比较谨慎"

==============

“今天的市场虽然惨淡，不过十年之后再看2011年，或许你的子女会埋怨你为何当年没能有所作为。”在10月29日举行的 2011汇丰财富论坛上，清华大学金融学教授、央行货币委员会委员李稻葵语出惊人。
==================

至于欧洲目前面临的债务危机问题，在李稻葵看来，其实不如美国的问题严重：“未来两三年之内，欧洲问题必有答案，因为它拖不起，必须要改革，而现在它已经在赶考了

============

此外，他还提出，如果中国的外储不购买欧洲稳定基金（EFSF）债券，那就意味着只能继续购买美国国债，相当于在帮助美国。

ikan bilis

04-11-11, 13:19

todayonline, this week's article by colin tan....

"nothing is more effective in managing runaway real estate markets - in the absence of a recession - than a bout of credit tightening"

.... and like that hor, die lah... will MAS tightening our creadit here.... squeezing the banks?..
(and i think hor...)
- is that practical?.... might be a bit hard lah? big buaya could finance from offshore.
- will it work for private properties?... i believe it will freeze mass market segment to hard frozen.
- will it work for hdb?... no, that's real basic need and real demand... (mnd cannot just correct past mistake like that)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nothing works like credit tightening
by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Nov 04, 2011

Judging from the recent experience of countries in the region, it appears nothing is more effective in managing runaway real estate markets - in the absence of a recession - than a bout of credit tightening.

Other cooling measures like higher downpayment rules, steeper stamp duties and property taxes coupled with various caps and limits on purchases have been shown to be less effective without the accompaniment of some form of credit tightening.

In the region, the booming property markets in India and Australia were among the first to be tamed by interest rate hikes. These tightening moves were soon followed by the monetary authorities in neighbouring countries. The major motivation for the rate hikes was to combat runaway inflation but real estate and other businesses suffered collateral damage.

I remember a period when the pace of credit tightening in India was so relentless that it elicited loud howls of protest from the business community. Indian developers fanned out across the region, some of them coming to Singapore - which was seen as an oasis of liquidity - to seek fresh funds from investors or partners in a bid to rescue stalled projects.

What happened to India some years back is now happening to China. The debt crisis in the southern city of Wenzhou is a good example of how severe the fallout on other sectors of the economy can be.

For India, the housing market seems to have caught hold of a second wind and the property cycle for some cities is on the upswing again.

However, the problem of high property prices is so huge in China that, even as the screws on credit grow ever tighter, some city authorities see it fit to introduce even more drastic measures.

On Tuesday, the southern city of Zhuhai set a cap for home prices at 11,285 yuan (S$2,264) per sq m, possibly the most extreme property price-tightening measure imposed by a Chinese city so far. Developers asking for a price higher than that will be refused the permits to sell their projects.

Other blunt measures introduced earlier in some Chinese cities included limiting each household to a single purchase. This led to some "paper" divorces as some investors tried to get around the rule.

The compounding effect of the slew of cooling measures in China has now led to falling sales and prices in some cities and to huge discounts for some projects whose developers are having cash flow problems. If overall prices have not yet been corrected in China, it looks like this may happen within the next few months.

Chinese developers who were on the brink of tipping over three to four years ago were given a reprieve when Beijing pumped trillions of yuan into the economy in response to the global financial crisis resulting from the US sub-prime fiasco. Will another global crisis be their saviour this time?

Being so close to China, both in distance as well as in economic links, it was only a matter of time before trends taking place in China were mirrored in Hong Kong.

The overall value of housing transactions halved last month in Hong Kong from a year ago. In terms of residential units, sales dropped 2.2 per cent from September. Although direct purchases from developers rose from the previous month, these were not enough to offset the slide in secondary market transactions. Trend-wise, it was the 10th straight month of declining home sales.

A fund manager based there told me that Hong Kong developers will stubbornly resist lowering their prices until it begins to hurt. In the meantime, he feels sales volume will continue to decline.

Barclays Capital Research recently issued a report which predicted that Hong Kong residential property prices would drop 35 to 45 per cent over the next two years. Will it come to pass?

For Singapore property investors, the tension must be building up although they are not showing signs of panic.

Let us wait and see what happens to Hong Kong. It might also be comforting to know that a recent survey released in Shanghai showed that nearly half of Chinese who have assets worth more than 10 million yuan are considering emigration.

Can these be the potential new citizens who will come to our rescue?

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

ikan bilis

17-11-11, 20:53

:beats-me-man:

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pa3.cfm?File=20111117/pab01/pr41724k.txt

中原：首11個月豪宅屋苑呎價升7.7%
文章日期：2011年11月17日

中原地產研究部聯席董事黃良昇指出，2011年首11個月全港30個主要豪宅屋苑的二手買賣平均呎價暫時錄得14,273元，較2010年12月升7.7%。雖然近期本地樓市調整，二手豪宅市道氣氛轉淡，但豪宅樓價仍受到支持，在高位企穩，並較去年底錄得升幅。

黃良昇指，今年首11個月君臨天下的呎價升幅最多，上升29.6%。帝景園的呎價上升25.7%居次。嘉富麗苑的呎價暫有24.2%升幅，排名第三位。

2011年首11個月，以地區計，九龍區平均呎價暫錄14,610元，較去年12月升9%；港島區15個豪宅屋苑平均呎價為15,931元，升7.3%。新界區5個屋苑的平均呎價暫錄8621元，升5.4%。

(即時地產)

amk

17-11-11, 21:07

This is very interesting ;)

I'm waiting for tomorrow official China propery price data for the big cities.

amk

18-11-11, 10:31

Official china pty price data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities registered a price drop. Average drop is < 0.5%, and the biggest drop in Wenzhou, only 4.6%. Beijing price unchanged.

bargain hunter

18-11-11, 11:22

4.6% month on month drop in wenzhou? really crashing there huh?

Official china pty price data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities registered a price drop. Average drop is < 0.5%, and the biggest drop in Wenzhou, only 4.6%. Beijing price unchanged.

devilplate

18-11-11, 13:14

4.6% month on month drop in wenzhou? really crashing there huh?

i dun tink we shd use the word crashing wor.....

overall more like a soft landing

basic.....poor thing....LOL

devilplate

18-11-11, 13:18

Official china pty price data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities registered a price drop. Average drop is < 0.5%, and the biggest drop in Wenzhou, only 4.6%. Beijing price unchanged.

yo, can provide the link?

its mthly resale px index?

amk

18-11-11, 15:35

yo, can provide the link?

its mthly resale px index?

It's monthly new home price.
I read it from bloomberg terminal, not internet.
From internet, u go bloomberg.com, look for the top market news on the right. Headline is "china home price fall most on curbs"

devilplate

18-11-11, 15:40

It's monthly new home price.
I read it from bloomberg terminal, not internet.
From internet, u go bloomberg.com, look for the top market news on the right. Headline is "china home price fall most on curbs"

tq got it;)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-18/china-home-prices-fall-in-33-of-70-cities-in-worst-performance-this-year.html

amk

18-11-11, 15:41

4.6% month on month drop in wenzhou? really crashing there huh?

Wenzhou I'm not surprised. Small city full of small filthy rich business men.
The important ones to watch for is Beijing, shanghai. My friend's pty in Beijing 4th ring has no price movement at all.

Anyway this is not crash. Before this month it's 3 months' of 0 growth, i.e. stalled. Bloomberg analyst call this latest data " turning point for china pty market"

U know Chinese market is one of the most strange market in the world. Apart from Dubai, this is probably the only place most ppl buy pty using cash.

devilplate

18-11-11, 15:47

tq got it;)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-18/china-home-prices-fall-in-33-of-70-cities-in-worst-performance-this-year.html

Home prices will fall between 15 percent to 30 percent in the next two years, Mark Mobius, who oversees $40 billion as Hong Kong-based executive chairman of Franklin Templeton Investments’ Emerging Markets Group, said before today’s release. BNP Paribas predicted a 10 percent decline by the second half of next year.

i tot basic said ppty px in china oredi fall 10-40% ???

den y analyst still predicts 15-30% while another said 10% drop nxt yr?:rolleyes:

so who is making up stories?:D

ikan bilis

18-11-11, 15:48

i think they compare oct 2011 pricing with oct 2010 pricing... that's their way of doing statistic (like their inflation number)... and publish every month... :confused:

hard to find some established property price index in china, think closest is sofun...

:beats-me-man: :beats-me-man:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/business/2011-11/18/c_131255086.htm

More cities post home price declines in October

BEIJING, Nov. 18 (Xinhua) -- More Chinese cities posted monthly home price declines in October following the government's campaign to calm the runaway property market.

In October, 34 of the statistical pool of 70 major cities saw declines in new home prices from September, compared with 17 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Friday.

New home prices in 20 cities stayed flat last month from September, and the growth rates of home prices in the other cities were all below 0.2 percent, according to an NBS statement on its website.

On a year-on-year basis, two cities -- Wenzhou and Ningbo in eastern China's Zhejiang province -- out of the 70, saw prices decline in October, compared with one in September. Gains of new home prices eased in 59 cities, the statement said.

Prices of new homes in the four top cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, saw month-on-month price drops after staying unchanged for three months.

New homes are defined as new commercial residential apartments excluding affordable housing, according to the statement.

Prices of existing homes fell in 38 cities in October, an increase of 13 cities from September, while those in 19 cities stayed flat, according to the statement.

Since April 2010, China has imposed a raft of measures aiming to calm property prices. They include higher down payments, limits on the number of houses that people can own, the introduction of a property tax in some cities and the construction of low-income housing.

NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun said last month that the government's efforts had achieved positive results.

During a visit to Russia last week, Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated the stance that the government would not waiver on the tightening measures and pledged to lower prices to a reasonable level.

Also last week, China's housing authority announced it had met its goal of starting construction of more than 10 million units of affordable housing by the end of October.

That was part of the government's plan to build 36 million subsidized housing units in the five years to 2015, in a bid to cater for low-income families.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20111118D18JF610.htm

China October Property Prices Ease; First Decline Since Government Curbs

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--
Average property prices in 70 Chinese cities covered in a government survey fell a tad in October from a month ago, recording its first on-month decline since Beijing started a two-year tightening campaign to cool the red-hot property market and possibly marking a turning point for prices.

The National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Friday that prices of newly built homes in 34 of 70 large and medium-sized Chinese cities it surveyed fell in October from the previous month, up from 17 cities in September.

The survey also showed that prices of newly built homes in 16 of the 70 cities rose on month in October, lower than the 24 cities in September.
Prices of newly built homes in major cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou were marginally down compared with September, the statement said.

Based on Dow Jones Newswires' calculations, prices in the 70 cities fell by a marginal 0.13% on average in October from a month ago, compared to a 0.01% increase in both September and August. Prices rose 3.0% on average in October from a year earlier, moderating from a 3.7% increase in September.

China's residential real-estate market has been cooling due to a two-year government campaign aimed at bringing the overheated sector under control.

amk

18-11-11, 15:58

Devil a hedge fund like mark möbius always like to "estimate" big numbers, that's what they do. He is probably short on china developers.

As far as official data is concerned, big crash has not happened. Every one wants to be like Andy Xie , or that NYU professor. It's far easy to be a doomsday expert than a boom day expert ;)

Thanks ikan bills for the posting of the exact article. This forum needs you to provide real info, not those colorful sensational self conjured up stories.

devilplate

18-11-11, 16:00

amk

18-11-11, 16:03

den y analyst still predicts 15-30% while another said 10% drop nxt yr?:rolleyes:

In bloomberg talk, this translates To "market has no consensus". Basically no one knows. With current euro crisis, no way it can be up, so have to forecast a drop.
I read bberg every day. Articles like this are very common

amk

18-11-11, 16:04

sounds like comparing this mth data wif previous mth leh.....am i right?

Today's result is month on month. Before this month the last 3 are flat.

devilplate

18-11-11, 16:14

In bloomberg talk, this translates To "market has no consensus". Basically no one knows. With current euro crisis, no way it can be up, so have to forecast a drop.
I read bberg every day. Articles like this are very common

bro, i meant to poke basic one lor.....hehehe:D

bargain hunter

18-11-11, 19:22

first read a lot about wenzhou entrepreneurship boom. then read about wenzhou enterpreneurs owe loan sharks run road or committed suicide and now their ppty prices are falling faster than average. wenzhou fly by night conmen hahahahahahaha. so where are the wenzhou fellas who are supposed to be snapping up our sg ppties? are they still coming? :)

Wenzhou I'm not surprised. Small city full of small filthy rich business men.
The important ones to watch for is Beijing, shanghai. My friend's pty in Beijing 4th ring has no price movement at all.

Anyway this is not crash. Before this month it's 3 months' of 0 growth, i.e. stalled. Bloomberg analyst call this latest data " turning point for china pty market"

U know Chinese market is one of the most strange market in the world. Apart from Dubai, this is probably the only place most ppl buy pty using cash.

ikan bilis

18-11-11, 20:11

now i know why agents always see me no up .... :simmering:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pa3.cfm?File=20111118/pab01/pr51251k.txt

中國人買走新加坡3成豪宅
[12:51] 文章日期：2011年11月18日

《新京報》周五引述世邦魏理仕提供的數據顯示，近15個月以來，新加坡30%的豪宅被中國人買走。

據高鴻置地中國區董事總經理葉丹表示，這是由於受限購令政策的影響，國內富豪在國內購房受限，他們轉而將目光瞄準海外市場。而新加坡由於是以華人為主的社會，沒有語言障礙、寬鬆的移民政策和信貸政策，吸引中國買家前來置業。

近兩年來，隨著投資、移民、留學等需求的增加，海外置業成為熱門話題。而繼加拿大、澳洲後，新加坡也成為中國人海外置業的熱門選擇地。

據世邦魏理仕私宅部執行董事陳金道指出，到新加坡置業的外籍人士中，印尼和馬來西亞人原本佔有50%的比例，但近15個月以來，中國人在新購房的比例上有了一個較大提升，佔到外籍人士的30%，躍升為新加坡豪宅第一外籍買家。

據悉，新加坡最貴豪宅之一麗思卡爾頓公寓由高鴻置地開發，項目2008年開盤至今已售出四成，其中不乏來自中國內地的買家。該項目最貴的兩套頂層複式戶型其中一套就被來自中國內地買家以3500萬新幣買走，約合2億元人民幣。

據了解，新加坡80%的人口居住在政府提供的組屋中，20%的富裕階層居住在私宅中。新加坡對於購買組屋有國籍限制，但對於私宅卻並沒有國籍的限制，新加坡寬鬆的投資環境吸引了中國內地買家前來置業。

據了解，近幾年新加坡樓市的發展規律與中國樓市相似。受金融危機影響，新加坡樓市在2008年底跌入谷底，之後強勁反彈，但時至今日新加坡樓市價格仍未恢復到2007年最高水平。

陳金道表示，目前新加坡房地產市場的銷售均價相對於2007年的市場價格，仍低10%左右，因此對於置業者來說，目前仍是投資新加坡豪宅的好時機。

此外，目前新加坡購房政策頗為寬鬆，外籍買家在新加坡也可只支付兩成的首付，享受80%的貸款，有了信貸政策的支持，購房門檻大大降低，而貸款利率也處於低位，僅為0.8%。而新加坡的租金也比較高，租金回報率約為2.5%至3%，購買豪宅用來出租投資也是比較划算的。

不過，值得注意的是，面對國外買家強大的購買需求，新加坡政府也及時推出了一系列政策，抑制投資炒房，避免價格攀升過快。如購入首年進行交易的，要繳16%的交易稅，以後逐年遞減4%，到第五年免稅。

據了解，由於中國內地買家強勁的購買力，新加坡發展商如遠東國際、凱德、高鴻也看好中國市場，紛紛來中國推銷豪宅，重點面向北京、上海、廣州這樣的一線城市推廣。

即時地產）

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

內地34城市上月樓價下降[17:02]文章日期：2011年11月18日
國家統計局公布，70大中城市中有34個城市上月新房價格環比下降，38個城市二手住宅價格環比下降。

與去年同月相比，70個大中城市中，價格下降的城市有2個，比9月份增加了1個。漲幅回落的城市有59個。10月份，同比漲幅在5.0%以內的城市有57個，比9月份增加了8個。

二手住宅方面，與上月相比，70個大中城市中，價格下降的城市有38個，持平的城市有19個。與去年相比，70個大中城市中，價格下降的城市有13個，比9月份增加了6個。同比漲幅回落的城市有43個。10月份，同比漲幅在5.0%以內的城市有51個，比9月份增加了1個。

另外，中國銀監會日前發布的2011年第三季度《中國銀行業運行報告》稱，三季度房地產業新增貸款環比首次出現負增長。《報告》稱，隨著國家房地產調控政策的推進，目前部分城市房屋銷售量已經出現下滑，房價有所回落，土地流拍或底價成交現象明顯增多。

統計顯示，三季度商業銀行新增貸款投向冷熱分明，主要集中於三大領域：個人貸款（佔比29．4％）、批發和零售業（佔比29％）、製造業（佔比28．4％）。

（即時地產）

hyenergix

18-11-11, 20:13

dtrax

19-11-11, 16:14

I AM fortunate in the sense that occasionally I get invited by some really savvy retail investors to their informal gatherings. I usually glean a lot of wisdom, insights and inspiration from such sessions.

Two weeks back, I was invited to lunch with a full-time investor and his friends. Amongst them were business owners, investment and real estate professionals. The group talked about their investment philosophies, their views of the market, and what they are doing now.

One man was very generous in sharing the lessons he learnt in his investment journey. He used to work as a chief trader in a foreign bank trading instruments such as money market products and swaps. He left the bank many years back because he felt that he could do much better on his own than in the bank.

Since then, he has bought and sold private businesses, properties, equities, among other things. He is still running a few businesses on a small scale (because he doesn't believe in doing anything big), and at the same time he is also managing his own investments.

In the initial years, he lost a fair amount of money in his investments in private businesses. 'But I learnt so much in the process.'

The first million

Getting to the first $1 million, he said, usually takes the longest time. After that, the wealth can grow pretty fast if one is able to grab the right opportunities.

From the conversations, it seems that he - let's call him Mr A - made a few astute bets on the Singapore property market. In late 2006, he started to pick up units in Pearl Bank Apartments in Outram. That was when the en bloc fever was hotting up, and news emerged that the owners of the iconic development were exploring collective sale as an option.

He picked up four units of various sizes between November 2006 and September 2007. And he exited all his trades in September and October 2007. For the first unit he paid $645,000 and sold it for $1.5 million. Another he bought at $788,000 and sold at $1.88 million.

He felt that the en bloc price demanded was too high, and decided to sell his units as quickly as possible. So he told the real estate agents who specialised in that project at that time to bring any potential buyers to him first. He'd pay them a commission of 1.5 per cent, instead of the normal one per cent. As such, he was able to offload all four units in a short time.

True enough, the en bloc sale in 2007 fell through. So did the one in 2008. Earlier this year, the owners of the ageing development put the building up for sale again. Still, they failed to find a buyer.

Another lucrative deal Mr A managed to complete around the same time was of a landed property in Upper Bukit Timah. He paid some $500,000 for the property, tore it down and rebuilt it at a cost of $1 million. He sold the property which has a lease of just 38 years left for $3.8 million.

Like many investors, Mr A subscribes to Warren Buffett's rules when it comes to investing. Mr Buffett has two famous rules: Rule 1, Don't lose money. Rule 2, Don't forget Rule No 1.

Exit strategy

Mr A has another rule. Always decide on your exit strategy right from the outset. 'I'd do that when I go to a new place, say a hotel, as well. I'd check out where all the exits are so that I know what to do when anything happens. In other words, I don't have to frantically look for an exit in a panicky state,' he said.

Mr A shared a story of a friend who came to him for advice. This friend had bought into a warrant, whose price had plunged from 20 cents to seven cents. The friend asked what he should do with his holding. Mr A advised him to sell and take back whatever cash he could. There was a high likelihood the warrant would become worthless, he reckoned.

The friend managed to get back $50,000 in cash. Again, he asked Mr A what he should do with the money. Coincidentally, Mr A was looking at Novena Holdings at that time. It was the time when Oei Hong Leong offloaded his holdings in Novena amid his lawsuit against Citigroup. Mr Oei had alleged that Citi had misled him into losing some $1 billion from foreign exchange and United States Treasury bond transactions.

Mr Oei sold Novena at eight cents a share, compared with the 21 cents each that he had paid for them. As one of Mr A's strategies is to track the transactions of major league smart investors, he suggested that his friend might want to take a look at Novena. 'What? Buy this stock when Oei Hong Leong is selling?' his friend asked. Mr A answered: 'He didn't want to sell. He was forced to sell.' So the friend got in, and fortunately for him, Novena doubled in the next nine months. He advised his friend to take his profits.

Since then, Novena has changed its name to Viking. Although Mr A advised his friend to exit the counter, he himself held on. Today, Viking trades at about 10 cents a share, and Mr A is sitting on a paper loss of some $400,000. But he said he is keeping faith in the stock.

Having caught the property market in one of the major bull runs, Mr A is of the view that the next money to be made is in the equity market.

He said he is still raising cash, and is waiting for an opportune time to get into the market. He deployed 10 per cent of his cash hoard into the market in early October, but after seeing the sharp rebound in the market despite the fact that there was no fundamental change in outlook, he cashed out again.

He said he learnt from the last crisis. Then, he was adamant that he would only put all his cash to work when the Straits Times Index fell to 1,250 points. It never did, and so only 10 per cent of his cash managed to ride the market up in 2009. This time round, he said he would gradually deploy his cash at a 'low enough' level.

Sitting on cash

Another investor in the group, Mr B, managed to catch the bottom in the last crisis, when the STI hit 1,500 points. Then, convinced that equities were just too cheap, he mortgaged his properties, paying an interest rate of 2 per cent, and plonked the entire sum into Reits, which were yielding 10-plus per cent at that time.

He has since exited the market completely and is sitting on cash. In addition, he has raised additional cash from banks using his three properties as a pledge. This time, he is paying an even lower rate of 1.5 per cent. And he is looking to get into the market when the STI falls to 2,500 points. Again, he is intending to put his money in Reits which own prime properties.

The group however noted that over-leveraging can wipe out an investor. But they acknowledged the relative soundness of Mr B's strategy of raising cash from his real estate at a cheap rate, and deploying it into the stock market during a crash. This is a far smarter move than taking up share margin financing during a bull market.

On the macro front, the investment professional in the group said there is one trend that is playing out, and that is the world economic growth is slowing. Corporate earnings will be downgraded, and equities will continue to be derated. During this period too, the markets may intermittently be shaken by the panic caused by the crisis in Europe. He is advising his clients to keep their cash, but to get ready to put it to work over a six-month period next year.

Tremendous liquidity

While the group agreed that there isn't yet any real solution to the euro crisis - Greece leaving the eurozone may be one solution although that may cause upheavals in the market in the short term - the fact is there is tremendous amount of liquidity on the sidelines. These funds would be very eager to get back into the market, and so the rebound in equities, when it comes, might be very sharp.

As the conversations wound down, Mr B reminded the group not to forget to appreciate life even as they busy themselves with work. One of his friends just passed away from a heart attack. The key, agreed everyone, is to maintain a balanced life.

The lunch ended on a very heartening note when the group talked about the pro-bono work they are doing in their various communities. One said that a private investor, who was single, left behind $13 million when he passed away to his community development association. The instruction was that the capital cannot be touched for a certain number of years, and only the dividends can be used to pay for the education of needy kids.

Another investor is working with volunteers to make monthly visits to low-income families and coach them on their budgeting. Yet another runs a childcare for the low-income group.

All lament the lack of volunteers in their organisations, but admitted that getting funds might not be that big an issue. My contribution to the conversation: Perhaps they should seriously consider employing full-time staff to run some of these programmes. I'm sure the programmes will be better administered as a result, and more help will reach those who really need it.

ikan bilis

22-11-11, 18:38

Some data: PR owns 5-6% of HDB flats
(=> think number like that got lots of room to grow)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(Business Times, Sgp) Published November 22, 2011

Permanent residents own 48,700 HDB flats as at September

SINGAPORE permanent residents (PRs) owned some 48,700 HDB flats as at September this year, according to fresh figures released by the Ministry of National Development (MND) yesterday.

The number of flats in the hands of PRs was made known in parliament yesterday after Member of Parliament for Ang Mo Kio GRC Ang Hin Kee requested for an update.

Mr Ang also asked how many PRs who are not residing in Singapore have received approval from the HDB to rent out their flats.

In a written response to Mr Ang, MND said that 4 per cent, or 1,967 of the 48,700 flats owned by PRs, were being sublet with HDB's approval. MND added that these flats were granted approval as their owners have met their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP). Another 295 PR households have obtained HDB's approval to sublet their flats during the MOP, of which 261 of them are working overseas.

kane

22-11-11, 19:11

Dtrax, thanks for sharing. Looks like your A friend made much more on properties than other assets.

ysyap

22-11-11, 19:44

hyenergix

22-11-11, 23:37

ikan bilis

26-11-11, 11:27

Weird market condition? Both HK island (prime district) and S’pore CCR price are depressed/sinking. But mass market sector price holding or up trend. In sgp, mass market below S$1mil 2-3BR pricing still moving up...

Note:
Sgp zoning: CCR-> RCR->OCR
HK zoing: HK Island->Kowloon->New Territory East-> New Territory West

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://trans.wenweipo.com/gb/paper.wenweipo.com/2011/11/26/ME1111260005.htm

　香港文汇报讯（记者赵建强）二手市场减价个案不断，反映楼价走势的中原城市领先指数下行，其中港岛区楼价七个星期已下跌6.65%，几乎已抵销今年全年升幅。全港整体楼价亦相应下跌2.71%，CCL最新报97.09，较上星期再跌0.20%。

中原CCL按周跌0.2%

　中原地产研究部联席董事黄良升指，港岛区指数连跌7周后，已创今年2月20日的103.25点之后，近39个星期新低，全年楼价几乎打回原型。黄良升认为，在港岛楼价率先领跌下，跌势将扩至九龙及新界，个人预料港岛区CCL将回落至100点，而整体楼价CCL则会下跌至95点。

　本港当前二手成交量之惨淡，几乎已跌至2008年金融海啸时的水平，而且欧债危机恶化，市场预料楼价将会继续调整。面对上述情况，业主希望卖楼便需减价出货，拖累楼价下挫，中原城市领先指数CCL最新报97.09点，按周下跌0.20%，七周累跌2.71%。中原城市大型屋苑领先指数CCL Mass最新报94.48点，按周下跌0.05%，七周累跌2.29%。

　资料显示，今年1月23日，港岛区楼价指数率先突破100点报100.24点，至6月5日港岛区楼价指数报111.88点，创出历史新高，整体楼价CCL亦同步升至100.72点高位，首次突破100点水平。

devilplate

26-11-11, 11:33

ikan bilis

27-11-11, 19:26

Some bear talk from HK side,... but this 1 from a heavy weight bear... 王文彦-中原地产创办人兼大股东... so "don't play-play"!!,.... writer had been bearish for very long liow... :scared-5: :D

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
樓市已經確定轉角，請自求多福

王文彥
怡居地產常務董事
2011年11月25日

樓市現在基本上可以確定已經轉角。這裏有兩個參考性指標：

1. 截至11月6日前的6周，反映二手樓價的中原城市領先指數連續下跌。如果翻查中原城市領先指數有紀錄以來(由1994年1月起)的數據，大家會發現所有連跌5周或更長的連跌紀錄，皆是樓市下跌周期中出現，包括1994年至95年、1997年亞洲金融風暴前後以及2008年海嘯前後那三次下跌浪。在樓市上升周期中，沒有一次調整是5連跌或以上的；

2.今年恆指的高點為4月8日的24,469點，低點為10月4日的16,250點，至11月23日祇能勉強反彈至17,864點。在過往7個月，股市及地產股已大幅下跌，跌幅二、三成的藍籌地產股比比皆是，以龍頭地產股新地為例，現價較去年底的高位跌了33%。以往藍籌地產股出現這樣的跌幅後，通常可以確認樓市已經轉角或不久(三至九個月)就會看到樓市轉角。

究竟今次樓市轉角是甚麼時候出現？根據中原城市領先指數，它是在今年7月初出現的，那時是100.29點。自此以後，點數基本上是一浪低於一浪地出現。如果我們檢視一些藍籌屋苑，太古城、康怡花園、海怡半島、杏花邨、黃埔花園及沙田第一城的樓價高點分別在今年5月(平均呎價$10,421)、5月(平均呎價$8,144)、6月(平均呎價$8,230)、7月(平均呎價$8,249)、5月(平均呎價$8,067)及6月(平均呎價$6,007)出現，較中原城市領先指數所顯示的拐點更早一、兩個月。

為甚麼樓市會轉角？除了上述兩個參考性指標，還有甚麼原因令我那樣確定樓市已經轉角，而不是一個上升浪中的較大調整？樓市轉角主因如下：

1.2008年金融海嘯爆發後，各國央行紛紛採取大印銀紙的量貸寬鬆貨幣政策救市。這種政策治標不治本，對實體經濟幫助不大，而且有許多嚴重的後遺症。二、三年下來，美國經濟復甦似有若無，十分緩慢，失業率居高不下(總在9%以上)；歐債危機惡化，大有機會陷環球經濟於衰退；內地收緊銀根以打遏樓市泡沫和通脹，經濟放緩；隨著外圍經濟惡化，香港經濟開始轉弱，出口轉口貿易顯著放緩，公司裁員的現象已陸續出現。曾特首11月9日在美國發表「技術性衰退」論，預料今年本港經濟增長由去年的7%下跌至5%，2012年更有機會下跌至2%。在這情況下，股市首先大跌，房地產價格亦開始下跌；

2.歐盟國基會總幹事拉加德已經提出警告，全球經濟將會面臨失落十年的風險。德國總理默克爾更明言解決歐債危機需時至少十年。香港屬開放型經濟，無可避免受外圍經濟興衰影響，那就意味香港很有可能長期(十年左右)面對經濟衰退的風險，而房地產價格已開始的下調，亦因此不免長期延續；

3.過去兩年餘，主要利好房地產因素不外四個：土地(最終亦即住宅單位)供應不足、超低利率、源源不絕的外來熱錢(特別是國內的，大部份集中於購買香港豪宅)及通脹。但隨著經濟放緩，樓價不斷下調，市民對物業的需求大減，住宅單位供不應求不再存在；內地收緊銀根，企業資金短缺，不少民企為了籌措資金，不惜付出高昂代價向地下錢莊求借。能夠以較低成本在香港借到錢的內企，自是樂於在港融資。對香港銀行來說，貸款予內地企業，遠較本地按揭貸款利潤高。各取所需下，香港銀行「水緊」壓力有增無已，港元貸款升幅高於港元存款，除節流(少做本港按揭)外，銀行也致力於開源，匯豐和永隆等多間銀行已相繼推出新的港元存款優惠(主要是加息)吸引存款。港元成本不斷上升，按揭利率最終不斷被拉高，在短短不足半年內，按揭利率已由低位的不足一厘，上升至3.25厘，而且還有上升空間。也就是說，過往二、三年在美國主導下的超低息局面，在香港的特殊環境下，不知不覺已經灰飛煙滅；由於香港物業價格已見頂回落，而國內銀根緊縮及房地產價格開始大幅回落，內地客近期不但不再大力吸納香港的豪宅，還著手拋售在港物業，以解國內資金之急。以內地買家熱中於投資的九龍站地區為例，旺市時每月動輒百餘二百宗買賣成交，今年1月成交仍在百宗以上，其後每月交投則有如坐滑梯，一瀉如注，最近數月每月成交不外20至30宗，11月至18日為止，僅錄得六、七宗成交。內地買家已大幅減少，內地客熱錢支撐香港樓市的局面好景不再。另一方面，由於歐債危險，環球資金都走到美元避險，美匯趨升。美匯反彈驅使大量熱錢流出香港；至於通脹，國內最近基本上已成功將它控制於5%左右，若再將之下降一、兩個百份點，通脹就不足為患。如果這樣，深受入口國內貨物價格影響的香港，通脹亦有望降低。
不難發覺，四個有利本港樓價的因素，已成明日黃花。

4.特區政府在過去一年多，實施了不少有力的壓抑樓市政策或措施(特別是額外印花稅、收緊按揭成數)，趕絕炒家，大量減少了虛假需求，物業供不應求的形勢頓時180度扭轉。在外圍經濟不濟的情況下，這些依然保持的政策或措施，加速了樓市的調整；

5.今年1月，美國顧問公司Demographia公佈的一份調查報告指出，香港住宅樓價相當於家庭每年收入中位數的11.4倍，比率數字全球最高，屬於極難負擔的水平。報告列出的82個人口達到100萬以上的城市，各地樓價負擔中位數祇是4倍，可見香港樓價的確處於一個極其偏高的水平，遠遠超出市民的購買力。樓價位高勢危，早就想覓機調整，一旦遭遇外圍經濟惡化，終極一跌自是避無可避。

綜觀上述原因，利好樓價的因素已陸續消逝或作用大減，但不利的因素則愈來愈多，愈來愈惡化，樓市的繁榮期還怎可持續下去！這是我那麼肯定樓市已經轉角，自此從繁榮期踏入衰退期的因由。

ikan bilis

29-11-11, 17:36

from BizTimes, 20 Nov 2011

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Published November 29, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
China property prices slip down a tricky slope
Many are braced for a sharp correction next year but hope that a crash will be averted

By VIRGINIE MANGIN
IN BEIJING

CHINA'S real-estate market is starting to hurt. In October the number of cities posting a drop in prices doubled from September. Property sales dropped 24 per cent month-on-month and 14 per cent from a year earlier.

Developers struggling for cash have had to suspend further land acquisitions and construction, sending shock waves through the economy. A Credit Suisse survey on construction companies said that their major concern in the coming months would be delayed payments from developers. Construction projects have also already started to drop.

It's a strange turnaround for a sector that the government has been trying to rein in for the past two years. To check speculation and rocketing prices, the government restricted bank lending, raised downpayments and restricted buying in major Chinese cities.

Now the worry is that the property market could be heading for a crash.

In the best case scenario analysts expect a 10-20 per cent correction in prices in the coming 12 months which should not be too painful for the developers and the economy as a whole. They argue that underlying demand is still strong and supported by resilient income growth and a high savings rates. 'I don't expect the secondary market to be affected much,' explains Kevin Tsang, analyst with Moody's. 'The government will try to make sure the impact remains moderate for developers.'

BNP Paribas thinks the developers should be able to take the hit though some consolidation is expected in China's 80,000 developers. The big industry names are to benefit most.

Price cuts so far have been limited to specific developments and are far from being a nationwide phenomenon. Some projects have seen prices drop by up to 30 per cent but most analysts don't expect massive price cuts across the board. Social risks are too high, and in 2008 many developers had to retract after announcing big price cuts.

However, some market watchers are more pessimistic and say that the market could be heading for a major downturn.

'China wants to move towards more consumption-led growth. This is not possible while so much of the savings go to the real estate sector. The government wants to send a clear signal to the market,' explains Jingson Du, property analyst with Credit Suisse, who says it will take a lot more than a mild correction for the government to intervene.

'The key indicator we should be looking at is not prices published by the statistics bureau but the consumer sentiment. The question will be: will people keep buying once prices drop?' And for him the answer is clearly no.

The Chinese economy relies heavily on real estate to support and the consequences of a slowdown in this sector could spill to other sectors: construction, steel, cement. Societe Generale estimates 1-2 percentage points could be knocked off GDP growth next year.

There could also be a political backlash from local governments who desperately need revenue from land sales. Some have already openly said price cuts were 'totally against local regulations'. Sporadic protests have sprung up around Shanghai as hundreds of angry homeowners asked for their money back.

So even though the central government openly opposes any policy changes, there are signs that a degree of flexibility could be allowed at the local level. With the 18th Communist Party Congress looming, 2012 will be an important political year for China and no one will want to take the blame for social unrest. Chongqing has just been allowed to promote a tax rebate for first time buyers - a move seen by Nicole Wang, analyst with CLSA, as significant since the municipality is often aligned with Beijing's policy direction.

The housing market will also indirectly benefit from a few loosening measures already in place. New loans grew month-on-month in October and five rural agencies in Jiangsu saw their requirement reserve ratio drop which could suggest a broader national move in the same direction.

So if officially the tightening measures will remain in place for some time, Beijing still has some leeway to act on the market.

'The government cannot afford the market to collapse. They just want to correct it,' says Kevin Tsang with Moody's.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Published November 29, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Non-landed private home prices up 0.9% in October
Rise comes after three months of zero or negative growth, SRPI shows

By UMA SHANKARI

(SINGAPORE) The monthly Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) showed that prices of non-landed private homes climbed 0.9 per cent in October 2011 - reversing a three-month trend of zero or negative growth.

The index, which is compiled by the National University of Singapore, tracks prices of completed projects. It showed that prices were flat in July, and then fell 0.2 per cent in August and another 0.1 per cent in September.

The index is now at a fresh high. Analysts said that October's climb in the index was caused by resale home prices catching up to those fetched by new launches.

'In the last 3-4 months, we have seen zero or negative price growth for resale homes, but during the same period, new launches continued to be priced strongly,' said Ku Swee Yong, chief executive of International Property Advisor. 'Resale prices could now be catching up.'

Market sentiment also recovered somewhat in October, noted Knight Frank's head of research and consultancy Png Poh Soon.
'We believe the increase (in October's SRPI) could be a reflection of the improvement in market sentiment due to a broad-based recovery of the stock market, arising from possible positive developments in the European Debt Crisis. This could have led some to believe that the debt deal struck in Europe could be a sustainable solution,' said Mr Png.

'Coincidentally, there was also positive news coming out from the US and China, which also encouraged home buyers who might be looking to capitalise on the still low interest rate environment to purchase properties.'

Yesterday's flash estimate showed that the SRPI Small index, which covers completed non-landed private homes island-wide of up to 506 sq ft, rose 0.9 per cent in October after falling 3.5 per cent in September. Analysts noted that the SRPI Small unit sub-index could be more volatile than the other indices as the sample size for the index is likely to be limited.

The estimates also showed that prices in both the 'central' and 'non-central' locations rose in October.

Prices of completed private apartments and condos (excluding small units) in the central region rose by one per cent, while prices in the non-central region (excluding small units) rose 0.8 per cent.
Looking ahead, Mr Ku said that resale prices could continue to trend upwards as new launches from developers set benchmark prices in certain locations.

And sellers could continue to up their asking prices because some units in new launches in the vicinity of their homes command benchmark prices, noted another market watcher.

phantom_opera

29-11-11, 17:49

already reflected in share price

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/2y/0/0960.hk

ikan bilis

02-12-11, 12:02

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC111202-0000097/The-REIT-stuff

The REIT stuff
by Ong Kah Seng 04:46 AM Dec 02, 2011

In recent years, as buyers sought physical property amid fears of missing the market as prices continued to hit record highs, real estate investment trusts (REITs) have remained popular, though not with the same level of interest as before.

K-REIT's announcement that it was acquiring Ocean Financial Centre triggered a rash of discussions on REITs and the financial diagnosis point to a consensus that not all such trusts deliver the envisaged investment returns.

While the financial mathematics seem to put selected REITs in disfavour, the entire sector should not be tarred with the same brush. The REIT sector should be looked at holistically, including how they contribute to property market development and how they bring in the best market practices, notwithstanding the competition they create.

REITs stiffen competition?

It has been contended that REITs, which mainly hold portfolios of non-residential properties, create stiff competition and are a leading cause of rental increases.

Some of these non-residential properties may be the livelihoods of small business operators and affordability becomes a concern. In the context of a retail operation, there are also concerns that businesses may quickly pass on the rising rents to consumers, thus contributing to inflation. However, it must be said that retailers, particularly the smaller ones which have weaker financing power, can opt away from REIT-operated malls.

Some of these retailers could have been dazzled by the vibrancy in REIT-operated malls and committed to the shop without a thorough evaluation of overall business cash flows. Consumers who find prices beyond their budget can forgo the purchase or look for lower-cost alternatives. If it is beyond one's budget and yet one chooses to purchase an item, it could very well be a desire to "get it out of one's system".

It may be the same for some occupiers of REIT offices and industrial premises who opt for such space or continue to renew their tenancies, although it must be said relocations do come with a cost. Nevertheless, for highly-specific, non-homogenous space, e.g. some industrial units, the users may indeed have no choice but to renew, although rightfully, exclusive space providers can price their properties at a premium.

The previous office market upswing and space crunch in 2007 prompted developers to start many projects but when they were completed in 2009 and last year, the anticipated demand had dissipated. Hence, building owners have learnt the need to be contrarian, to refurbish their assets during market slowdowns so that they can potentially receive a better response in the subsequent upswing.

As REIT-operated properties have better funding, the managers are likely to be in a better position to execute these newer and more efficient property market strategies.

REITs drive asset prices?

There have also been arguments that REITs drive up asset prices, especially the properties they seek to acquire for their portfolios as part of growth strategies. However, asset prices are often appraised prior to acquisitions although the decision to buy at fairly high costs poses challenges, especially in the current situation where property market sentiment has moderated.

The appraisal for investment properties will hence require a skilled and sharp judgment for long-term income projections. The range projected may be either near or far from the current property income, depending on how close the current market condition is to a "steadier state", often derived from historical averages.

However, historical performance may have different underpinnings - the users' intentions or requirements may have since changed. The market expectations for the value of a property can be very different from that of the buyer or seller. The difference can be justified if the appraiser's skills are unparalleled.

REITs bring changes

REITs have brought about significant changes in the property sector. First, spaces are creatively conceptualised and usage maximised more often than before. This can be seen very prominently in the REIT-operated malls where the function of the retail space is to offer excitement to shoppers, who will then be more likely to spend money.

The creative and frequent innovations by the REITs have become a reference for other landlords. Such moves to innovate and differentiate are also positive for property market development as a whole, particularly in the context of new or forthcoming supply.

REITs improve transparency

Property market information, specifically of leases and rentals, have never been transparent until the arrival of REITs. A whole range of REIT-related financial and property information are released every quarter by the trusts. This strengthens overall market knowledge and also raises the profile of industrial and office properties, which may be less familiar to investors or less close to their hearts.

A product for everyone, someone for each product

An evaluation of REITs, fundamentally of their longer-term contributions beyond mere financial perspectives, shows that the product should continue to be relevant. Perhaps the price to pay for all the benefits is intense competition and aggressive expansion strategies that may be felt to be out of sync with market norms.

But such stimulation is often necessary in maturing property markets which have hit the plateau of mere buying and selling and other standard transactions.

Having raised property standards over the past decade, the next stage for REITs is to justify the value of newer standards and expansion strategies. Major challenges confront REIT managers, who really have to work hard to justify acquisitions to help unit holders maximise returns.

The quieter market resulting from an expected economic slowdown next year may be a good time to revisit and formulate long term growth strategies. When the fundamentals eventually improve, it could be a case where REITs find their real fans - those who really feel their money will be safest in nowhere other than REITs.

As REIT holders have chosen to leave the management of the trust to a specific party, the factor they can control is the timing of the investment, although vocal investors may find it meaningful to express their views to REIT managers when necessary.

Ong Kah Seng is a director at R'ST Research, an independent property market research firm in Singapore.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
some related info on s-reit here: yield, NAV, gear ratio, dpu

http://reitdata.com/

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(note: now might not be a good time to get some reits, waves of rights issueing could be coming...)

ikan bilis

02-12-11, 17:20

(Biz Times, sgp, 02 Dec 2011)

Published December 2, 2011

Property sector seen more resilient than in 2008/09

Credit Suisse sees prime office rents to be 'at worst, flat'

By MICHELLE TAN

ASSET values are expected to be more resilient than in the 2008/2009 days and the situation within the office space may not be as gloomy as consensus paints it to be, says Credit Suisse.

In-house research analyst Tricia Song commented: 'While developer uptake could slow by 12 per cent to 15 per cent to 14,000 from the current 16,000 in 2012 on market uncertainties, we expect physical prices of properties that are well located to hold up on low speculation, genuine and pent-up demand, low interest rates, and strong household balance sheets.'

On property speculation worries, Ms Song opined that such activities are likely to have been 'weeded out' following multiple rounds of 'demand-side' measures which comprised harsh stamp duty penalties for sellers.

In fact, the implemented measures have proved to be highly effective with subsales falling to just 7 per cent of all transactions, she said.

Concerns over a supply glut may also be unfounded, as a relaxation of immigration policies arising from the need to buffer a tight labour market could well quell the matter by 2014.

The Swiss-based house expects Singapore to register positive GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 3.5 per cent in 2012, lending further weight to its view, as GDP and residential prices tend to share a strong historical correlation.

Cash calls are also unlikely in current times, with average gearing levels of developers standing at about 26 per cent as opposed to 56 per cent back in 2008, leaving adequate debt headroom for any attractive acquisitions that may come by.

On the office front, the sector also seems to be standing on firmer legs as compared to the 2008 to 2009 period.

With prime office rents still 40 to 50 per cent below pre-sub-prime peaks and 50 per cent lower than Hong Kong's central rents, coupled with 'benign yet- to-be committed supply' in the Central Business District (CBD) over 2012 to 2014, Ms Song expects prime office rents to be 'at worst, flat' in the times ahead.

Highlighting a preference for top quality Prime Grade A office space, Ms Song noted: 'Recent transactions came in at better-than-expected capital values, despite global uncertainties, suggesting demand for prime offices remains strong and that unlike the 2008 to 2009 sub- prime days, where private funds were more active and highly leveraged, there are fewer such desperate sellers in the market today.'

Should the European Central Bank be pressured into quantitative easing, the property sector may benefit from increased liquidity which may flow into Asia, supporting domestic property prices and the sector's stocks.

Notably, the risk-reward profile for certain developers and real estate investment trusts (Reits) - such as City Developments, CapitaLand, CapitaCommercial Trust, K-Reit, and CDL Hospitality Trusts - were deemed by the analyst to be particularly attractive.

DC33_2008

06-12-11, 15:32

land118

06-12-11, 15:35

A Seattle woman who is receiving welfare assistance from Washignton state also happens to live in a waterfront house on Lake Washington worth more than a million dollars (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=13vhe6u1g/EXP=1324369714/**http%3A//www.king5.com/news/local/Feds--Seattle-welfare-recipient-lived-in-million-dollar-home-134943613.html). "Search warrant documents unsealed Friday in federal court reveal that she received more than $1,200 a month in public housing vouchers, plus monthly cash from the federal and state government for a disability, as well as food stamps."

Guess, this may be one of many cases yet to be uncovered..., Rich but miking the US Government dry...:doh:

ikan bilis

09-12-11, 04:53

(Biztimes, sgp, 09 Dec 2011)

Published December 9, 2011

New terms may hit large collective sales

To avoid paying ABSD, developers must build, sell all units on residential sites within 5 years

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) The latest measures unveiled by the government are expected to have major implications for developers buying residential land, especially involving collective sale sites. They will have to develop any residential sites they buy from Dec 8 and sell all the units in the new project within five years - if they want to avoid paying the new 10 per cent additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD).

'This can be very onerous especially when the property market is slow,' said Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui.

Drew & Napier head of tax practice Ong Sim Ho said: 'For developers, it has become more difficult and costly to land bank.' He suggested one intention of the new rule could be to give more certainty to supply numbers on the completion of private homes.

Information in the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore e-tax guide on the ABSD indicates that the new 10 per cent ABSD is payable by corporate entities buying vacant land and development sites for residential use - although they can apply for upfront remission if the buyer (developer) undertakes to develop and dispose of all units in the new development (which must have more than four residential units) within five years of the date of contract or agreement to buy the site, among other conditions.

If this condition is not met, the ABSD (with interest) becomes payable immediately upon the expiry of five years. The residential sites include Government Land Sales (GLS) plots and private-sector sites including en bloc sales.

Market watchers say that with the five-year limit to complete the project and sell all units, developers will have to weigh their land purchase decisions more carefully.

'They must be confident of developing the project and disposing of all residential units in it within five years - taking into account the possibility of any turn in market conditions and in the case of en bloc sales, the risk of a possible delay in court approval,' says Lee Liat Yeang, partner in real estate practice group at law firm Rodyk & Davidson.

For en bloc sales, the date of contract or agreement refers to the date when the site is awarded by the Sales Committee. From this point, it can take six to 12 months or even longer for legal completion of the site's purchase (including court approval of the en bloc sale).

This additional time eats into the five-year limit the developer has to complete building the new residential project on the site and selling all the units, said Mr Lee.

But for sites bought through the GLS programme, the impact will be less as there is certainty that the legal completion of the land purchase will take place by the 90th day of the site's award (the latter is deemed date of contract), added Mr Lee.

Credo's managing director Karamjit Singh said the new rules will hit big collective sales very badly. 'For the small and medium-sized en bloc sale sites, most developers would already aim to buy the site, develop it and sell new units within five years, even before the new rules kicked in - whereas for the bigger sites it can be very difficult to be certain that you can clear all your units within five years.'

This will further reduce the attraction of bigger en bloc sale sites, which have already put developers off due to their steep pricing, say analysts.

There has not been any collective sale deal this year exceeding $200 million.

KPMG partner, tax services, Leonard Ong, said: 'The ABSD will certainly increase the costs of acquisition by developers who are unable to meet the conditions for remission.

'These costs are then likely to be passed on to end-buyers when the developed residential properties are sold. This would be regardless of who the properties are eventually sold to, including first-time home buyers. This cannot be the intention of the government.'

Under the new rules that took effect yesterday, foreigners and non-individuals (that is, corporates) buying any private residential property in Singapore will pay the 10 per cent ABSD. However, foreigners of certain nationalities - the United States, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Ireland - who fall within the scope of respective free trade agreements will be accorded the same treatment as Singapore citizens.

Singaporeans pay a 3 per cent ABSD for their third or subsequent residential property purchase. Permanent residents pay the same ABSD rate when they buy their second or subsequent home in Singapore.

Even before the ABSD kicked in yesterday, any developer buying a GLS residential site has been given a five-year limit by the state to complete the project, although the GLS conditions do not stipulate any timeframe on the sale of units.

However, when it comes to buying a private sector residential site (for example, through an en bloc sale), foreign developers have to obtain a Qualifying Certificate, conditions for which include a five-year limit to obtain Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) for the project and another two years from TOP date to finish selling all the units in the project.

Any developer with even a single non-Singaporean shareholder or director is deemed 'foreign'. Hence all the big listed developers, including City Developments and CapitaLand, are counted as foreign developers.

Hitherto, Singapore developers (such as Far East Organization and Hoi Hup) have been spared any time limit for completing or selling a residential project on a private site, although they face the five-year limit to complete GLS projects.

'So now the Singapore developers too will face a time limit to complete and sell units in all residential projects on sites bought from Dec 8, - if they wish to avoid ABSD,' said Mr Lee.

devilplate

09-12-11, 08:05

BESTEST!!!!!!!!!!

singkies all dun buy from developer from now onwards ok.......5yrs later den BUY!!!!!!!!!! whahahahahahahahaha

devilplate

09-12-11, 08:07

'Under the new rules that took effect yesterday, foreigners and non-individuals (that is, corporates) buying any private residential property in Singapore will pay the 10 per cent ABSD. However, foreigners of certain nationalities - the United States, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Ireland - who fall within the scope of respective free trade agreements will be accorded the same treatment as Singapore citizens.'

KNS!!!

den those PR lower priviledge den USA, swiss, norway, ireland? whahahahahaha

maisonjai

09-12-11, 08:57

wah, punishment for developers :scared-3: .

hopeful

09-12-11, 09:17

devilplate

09-12-11, 09:20

really dont want PRC buyers :)
and indians....LOL

land118

09-12-11, 09:21

(Biztimes, sgp, 09 Dec 2011)

Published December 9, 2011

New terms may hit large collective sales

To avoid paying ABSD, developers must build, sell all units on residential sites within 5 years

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

.

For en bloc sales, the date of contract or agreement refers to the date when the site is awarded by the Sales Committee. From this point, it can take six to 12 months or even longer for legal completion of the site's purchase (including court approval of the en bloc sale).

This additional time eats into the five-year limit the developer has to complete building the new residential project on the site and selling all the units, said Mr Lee.

But for sites bought through the GLS programme, the impact will be less as there is certainty that the legal completion of the land purchase will take place by the 90th day of the site's award (the latter is deemed date of contract), added Mr Lee.

Credo's managing director Karamjit Singh said the new rules will hit big collective sales very badly. 'For the small and medium-sized en bloc sale sites, most developers would already aim to buy the site, develop it and sell new units within five years, even before the new rules kicked in - whereas for the bigger sites it can be very difficult to be certain that you can clear all your units within five years.'

This will further reduce the attraction of bigger en bloc sale sites, which have already put developers off due to their steep pricing, say analysts.

There has not been any collective sale deal this year exceeding $200 million.

. All those dreamers at Laguna, Neptune, Pandan V, Pine G can kiss their dream away for now, wait long long for next round..., more years will be eroded from their leasehold properties..

land118

09-12-11, 09:30

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20111208-315176.html

Singapore best place in Asia for expats: survey

Thursday, Dec 08, 2011
AsiaOne

http://business.asiaone.com/A1MEDIA/business/12Dec11/images/20111208.163232_dec0811_expat_350x175.jpg http://business.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gifhttp://business.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gifSingapore is the best place in Asia and third best in the world for expats in terms of wealth and finances.

Latest findings from the 2011 Expat Explorer survey commissioned by HSBC Expat show that in areas such as earning levels, disposable income, spending, saving, investing patterns and the impact of the current global financial climate, Singapore is tops.
Half of those surveyed here earn over US$200,000 (S$257,000) per annum, placing Singapore second in the world for expat income. They also benefit from low taxation with over three quarters (84 per cent) spending less on taxes since relocating.
A little more than half also said that their income has increased since moving to Singapore, compared to just about a third over all.
However, accommodation expenses contribute to the higher cost of living here with 82 per cent spending more on this, compared to the global average of just 50 per cent.
Food is also a factor, with 65 per cent spending more on this here compared to the 50 per cent global average.
The survey also revealed that while the economic unrest around the world has caused expats to have little confidence in their local economy, it is not true for Singapore. On the flipside, 68 per cent of expats here are upbeat about the economy, and think the Singapore economy is strong. This can perhaps account for why only 29 per cent of expats here are actively looking to relocate.
Three main concerns of expat parents are childcare, health and wellbeing, and integration of children. Singapore scores highly in this regard, with expats here ranked first in being most satisfied with education here.
However, majority of expats surveyed say that the overall cost of raising children has increased since relocating here. They incur the highest average costs for children's education across the world (US$20,122 compared to the global average of US$11,559). Countries which ranked higher in expat income, such as Singapore (second position), are more likely to send their children to an international school (73 per cent compared to the global average of 50 per cent).
With all this, it is no surprise then that Singapore (9 per cent) emerged as the third ideal expat destination behind Australia (10 per cent) and the United States (10 per cent). In addition to being a favourite among expats, the study reveals that Singapore is also highly regarded as the ideal expat location which can offer the best of both worlds in terms of better quality of life (66 per cent expats who picked Singapore as ideal location think so) and career prospects (65 per cent).
Expat Explorer surveyed 3,385 expats from over 100 countries, an increase in reach from 2010. The report covers every aspect of life overseas, from managing finances and the economic benefits of relocating, to lifestyle issues and raising children

ikan bilis

09-12-11, 17:00

http://trans.wenweipo.com/gb/paper.wenweipo.com/2011/12/09/FI1112090001.htm

港府忧楼价急跌额印税或松绑
(额印税- Similar to our SSD in S'pore)

[2011-12-09]

　香港文汇报讯　(记者颜伦乐) 欧债问题困扰全球经济，加上压抑楼市措施连番推出，本港楼市近月交投急跌至「沙士」期间水平，有地产代理计划大裁员，政府昨日「放风」指会研究放宽过去一直「从紧」的楼市政策，包括额外印花税及按揭成数等。市场对此消息反应态度不一，切身利益的地产界几乎一面倒支持；学者则指现阶段放宽言之尚早，政策不宜朝令夕改。

　正在南非约翰内斯堡访问的财政司司长曾俊华(见图)昨晨接受外电访问时指出，当前楼市正缓慢下跌，预计会持续一段时间，希望楼价可以出现「软着陆」。不过，若楼价进一步下跌，加上欧洲债务危机恶化及全球经济下滑，本港会采取「逆周期」措施应对，放松之前针对楼市的措施。他并指，留意到欧美企业为应付欧债危机，可能会调拨资金回国，令资金流出本港。

楼市摸货已收敛七成

　运房局局长郑汝桦其后出席公开场合时，被记者追问有关放宽细节，她表示，引进额外印花税时，当局已承诺24个月后检讨，有需要可以提早进行，政府会密切留意楼市整体情况，适时推出措施。至于会否放宽按揭成数，她则回应说，按揭成数就银行体系整体稳定而作出，早前炒风比较炽热，当局适时和适当地推出了措施，也看见楼市「摸货」已收敛约7成。

　昨日财爷及郑汝桦的言论，引起市场很大反响，地产商和代理纷纷和应，同声支持；地产代理股美联物业(1200)应声升近9%。

　不过，政府发言人昨晚澄清，财爷所指主要是政府会针对经济和市场表现采取「逆周期」的措施，这番言论主要是就金管局有关按揭市场表现作出评论。意味除额外印花税外，政府亦打算从按揭方面入手，为楼市「松绑」。

　而就按揭方面，金管局回应，当局自2009年起，推出四轮逆周期物业按揭贷款监管措施，目的是提升银行风险管理，当局会继续密切监察市场发展，因应市场环境，不时检讨有关措施是否合适。

二手成交料跌四成

　翻查资料，政府去年底推出额外印花税时，市场对措施半信半疑，交投曾因此急跌，但随后极速反弹，但炒风的确被压抑，买卖以用家为主，「摸货」已收敛大概七成，可见政府措施有成效，但亦一直惹人指责，指措施可能会「错杀良民」。由于楼价不跌反升，政府今年中再收紧按揭，又推出大量土地，令楼市6月开始回调。
　不断「从紧」的楼市措施，令本港交投逐步回落，最近数月外围经济急剧转坏，楼市更进入「冰封期」。二手注册量已连续5个月不足5,000宗，业界预测今年二手成交只有75,000宗，按年下跌40%之余，更与04年沙士后情况相若，估计明年更剧减至42,660宗，较03年沙士时的市况更差，明年楼价料最多跌30%（见表）。近3个月来，约50家小型代理结业，大型代理中原亦准备裁员500人。（尚有相关新闻见B1和B10版）

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://trans.wenweipo.com/gb/paper.wenweipo.com/2011/12/09/YO1112090017.htm

中原500人料失饭碗裁员潮一触即发

[2011-12-09]

　香港文汇报讯　(记者颜伦乐、周颖) 政府推出一系列压抑楼市措施已经收效，楼市成交持续萎缩，平均6名代理只有一宗成交，过去3个月，约有50家小型地产代理公司结业。代理业已经进入「冰河时期」，龙头大行中原计划过年后，向每月营业额少于3万元约500名前线员工开刀。代理业裁员潮一触即发。

　中原地产亚太区董事总经理陈永杰昨表示，暂无裁员计划，但据集团的半年审核制度中，前线员工中有约1,500人于过去半年每月营业额少于6.8万元，有500人每月营业额少于3万元，个别员工更出现半年每月营业额为零的情况。集团将会在明年1月向该批员工发出严重警告信，数目是08年金融海啸以来最严重。中原当前前线代理员工约3,600人，后勤员工400人。

美联暂无裁员计划

　而美联集团副主席兼董事总经理黄锦康表示，未有裁员计划，但楼市若未来一段时间转差，例如回到97或03年水平，不排除会裁员。

　其他中型代理行，虽然没有裁员计划，但市况差，对行业前景均有所保留。世纪21奇丰物业主席及行政总裁李峻铭表示，楼市回软，未来会想办法寻求新发展，例如代理更多新盘、海外盘、内地盘等；前线员工会采自然流失方式淘汰，现时150名员工中约6至7%未达标准，未来会暂停扩充计划。

细行逆市扩充增人手

　大行收缩，但亦有细行趁机扩充。祥益地产总裁汪敦敬指出，集团于过去11个月未有盲目扩张高价抢铺，专注主力发展屯门区内二手成交，旗下30间分行，员工200余人，反而人人有「单开」，公司反而得以保存实力。当前市况反而是细行逐步挺进的好机会，未来2至3个月计划增聘50名员工，未来3至4个月增开3至5间分行。

ikan bilis

09-12-11, 21:24

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC111209-0000093/Private-property-prices-may-slide-in-next-6-months

Private property prices may slide in next 6 months

by Ong Kah Seng 04:46 AM Dec 09, 2011

The Government's latest round of property market cooling measures - imposing a range of additional buyer's stamp duties on private home purchases - helps most genuine owner-occupier buyers, specifically citizens and permanent residents who may be affected by affordability issues.

More importantly, it gives a clearer direction for the private home market, which had exhibited optimism despite the last round of cooling measures in January and the uncertainty in the external environment. Prices are expected to fall up to 8 per cent in the first half of next year.

Direct impact on foreigners

The most immediate impact of the measures will be a slowdown in foreigner purchases - a natural result of the hefty 10 per cent additional duty. The duty can be considered appropriate as foreigners have had sufficient opportunities to enter the market and have been stepping up purchases of private homes in recent years, with no policies specifically targeted at them.

The measure may also provide some support for the leasing market now that fewer foreigners are expected to buy a private home. There will be some foreigners who will not be put off by the 10 per cent additional duty as Singapore appeals to them as a politically stable and physically safe country. But this group is expected to consist of the really affluent, whose wealth is unscathed by the current economic headwinds from the United States and Europe, and who need a property in a place with excellent fundamentals.

Demand for non-residential property to rise

The January measures sparked a move to strata-titled non-residential property as investors sought out alternatives. The new measures will likely encourage investors to continue to sniff out such non-residential units - i.e. office, retail and industrial spaces.

But it must be highlighted that an excessive run-up in the prices of such properties may also prompt the Government to react as the viability of smaller businesses is challenged. Nevertheless, the shift to non-residential property investments in a bid to avoid the private home buyer stamp duty can be viewed as a positive for an investor as he or she will be diversifying his or her entire property portfolio.

Psychological deterrence

Singaporeans and PRs who are genuine owner occupiers, as well as citizens not buying a third or subsequent home, will not have to pay the additional buyer's stamp duty. While the number of locals who do not "stop at two" may not be large in the first place, the new measures mean that what is left in the pool of private property purchasers will now be strictly first and second home buyers.

Although the Singaporeans or PRs who have to pay the additional buyer's stamp duty will pay a lower rate than foreigners, they may still be deterred. Psychologically, the duty creates a disincentive, for such buyers are indeed paying more than their peers, particularly in the case of developer sales where prices are fairly uniform.

Selective property re-pricing

With the new measures, a persistent demand contraction leading to price falls will be more likely, especially amid global economic challenges. Private home prices may fall by up to 8 per cent in the first half of next year but this is still expected to be fairly property-specific and short-lived as there are many opportunistic buyers looking to purchase their dream property.

The desire for the dream property has intensified as society becomes increasingly sophisticated and individuals aspire to a higher quality of life. Also, as first time private home buyers do not have to pay the additional duty, they may stop hesitating on the purchase decision and realise their dream.

Ong Kah Seng is a director at R'ST Research, an independent property market research firm in Singapore.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC111209-0000075/New-cooling-measures--Shifting-the-goalposts

New cooling measures: Shifting the goalposts

by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Dec 09, 2011

Are the latest cooling measures - specifically targeted at the private housing market - what many Singaporeans have been waiting for since the General Election in May?

Wednesday's announcement of an additional buyer's stamp duty of 10 per cent for foreigners and 3 per cent for Permanent Residents already owning one or more properties and for Singaporeans already owning two or more properties caught the market by surprise.

The reaction of the Real Estate Developers Association of Singapore (REDAS) was understandably one of deep disappointment. Almost a whole year of residential land sales have been snapped up. Millions of dollars have been poured into these ventures. The sudden introduction of the measures is akin to shifting the goalposts halfway during the game.

The problem is probably one of miscommunication. In all its actions to date, the authorities have not let on that investment buys could be a problem. In fact, all four earlier sets of cooling measures were aimed at reducing speculation and stabilising prices. Now, it seems all of us were fooled. A statement or two indicating otherwise would have been greatly appreciated. At least, some developers would have factored this in as a risk when bidding for sites.

Then again, aren't developers supposed to factor in such risks?

Many analysts have singled out luxury homes as the market segment that stands to lose the most. Are we not forgetting that buyers in this segment are more concerned with the product than its price. Is an outlay of a mere 10 per cent more going to deter the ultra-rich from any of these purchases.

For sure, nobody likes to be discriminated against. All the developer has to do is to raise the price by 10 per cent but offer to absorb the additional stamp duty. The problem is psychological rather than real. Admittedly, sales for this market segment have been slow but it will not be any slower because of the new measures, unless of course, the product is more high-priced than high-end.

Wednesday's announcement came very soon after Minister of National Development Khaw Boon Wan's wish that the HDB first-timers' application rate for the Build-To-Order launch would fall below 2 times was fulfilled way beyond his expectations. Has the focus now shifted to fulfilling citizens' upgrading aspirations? It appears to be so.

The supply of Executive Condominiums (ECs) has been raised for next year. On the Government's Confirmed List of land sales for the first half of next year, five are for ECs. It is also probably recognition of the fact that the latest stamp duty changes would not correct private property prices soon enough or at least not enough to fulfil some of the upgrading aspirations. Depending on demand, we can expect more EC sites to be offered for sale in the coming years.

Apart from what is likely to have been miscommunication, I would say the measures are finally addressing the problem of excessive liquidity and the dangers it could pose for a small open economy like Singapore's.

Compared to the earlier changes in January, where up to 16 per cent in seller's stamp duty may be imposed depending on the timing of the divestment, the current set of changes is actually less drastic but more effective. But will it be enough?

To potential first-time private home buyers expecting a sharp drop in prices, it is too early to cheer. Even if property prices were to start to correct from today, it may be many months before they reach your affordability levels.

Time and time again, I have advised against under-estimating the liquidity challenge. How many of us thought that the cooling measures imposed in January marked the start of a decline of the residential market. I can tell you there were many red faces thereafter, some of them of very prominent market analysts.

How many times have our neighbours played our local investors out by changing the rules mid-way, but has this stopped property investments in these countries? The answer is no.

It is well-known that Hong Kong and Singapore are two favourite property investment destinations for mainland Chinese investors. If you have not been monitoring Hong Kong property prices, take a look now and then look at Singapore's. Then tell me whether the effectiveness of the current measures can be sustained over time.

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

ikan bilis

10-12-11, 04:09

(Biztimes) Published December 10, 2011

Divided views over buyer stamp duty effect
While foreigners are seen turning to the leasing market, consultants differ over direction of rent movements

By MINDY TAN

WHILE consultants think that the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) imposed earlier this week is expected to drive foreigners to the leasing market, they remain divided over next year's rent trend.

According to research by Savills Singapore, the leasing market is likely to benefit in the short term; it posited that total leasing volume this year could hit a new high of between 44,000 and 45,500 transactions. Leasing demand for Q4 is expected to reach between 10,000 and 10,500 transactions.

However, rentals may correct by a further 1-2 per cent next year. Savills attributes this to 'more private homes being completed in the coming months and expatriate housing budgets shrink(ing) in tandem with cost-cutting measures adopted by more and more multi-national companies'.

Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui agreed, saying that 2012 would see increased downward pressure on rents and the leasing market.

'Rental demand comes mainly from expatriates and foreigner workers, and this is expected to moderate in 2012 when the economy slows,' he said.

Lee Sze Teck, senior manager of research and consultancy at Dennis Wee Group, too cited an increase in the supply of homes as one of the factors stabilising rents.

It would fall on the shoulders of new expatriates coming into Singapore to see how much rental rates increase, he said.

'There might be an increase in transaction volume in 2012, but the impact will not be immediate because those who have rented units will continue to rent,' he said.

According to Mr Lee, both transaction volumes and rental rates should stay stable next year, increasing by up to 5 per cent.

Png Poh Soon, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore, too held the view that prices would remain stable, with the possibility of a slight increase.

'Notwithstanding a possible increase in leasing queries and demand, we will not expect the rates to increase significantly as new supply coming on stream next year and year after next will result in offsetting effects on rentals,' he said.

If the economic performance next year is within expectations (growth of 1-3 per cent), we can expect rents to improve by up to 3 per cent for 2012; conversely, rentals might fall by some 3-5 per cent under a pessimistic scenario, he added.

In its report, Savills noted that by region, rental growth of non-landed properties in the core central region rose by 4 per cent year-on-year to $4.56 psf per month in October.

Rental growth in non-landed properties in the rest of central region, and outside central region rose by 7 per cent and 11 per cent respectively, to $3.40 psf per month, and $2.92 psf per month.

The total transaction value for all properties hit a record $186 million over the first 10 months of the year. Estimated average monthly rent of high-end non-landed residential properties was $5.27 psf per month in Q4, dipping 2 per cent q-o-q.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~``

(Biztimes) Published December 10, 2011

Residential curb spells boon for alternative assets
By UMA SHANKARI

INVESTMENTS into strata-titled office, retail and industrial units in Singapore, as well as overseas homes, are set to pick up as investors search for alternative assets to buy following fresh government measures to cool the residential market here.

Analysts expect to see a sharp drop in demand from foreigners and corporations for private homes in Singapore, which will lead to a moderate drop in overall demand. Liquidity could instead flow into other asset classes, the analysts said.

The government on Wednesday announced fresh measures to curb demand for private homes, including an additional buyer's stamp duty of 10 per cent for foreigners and corporations on top of the existing buyer's stamp duty of up to 3 per cent.

'The latest measure could divert activity to other segments, such as strata-titled commercial and industrial sectors, since these are not affected by the additional stamp duty,' said DBS Group Research.

Nicholas Mak, head of research at SLP International, likewise noted that interest in small strata-titled industrial and office units could pick up.

Interest in such properties began to slow down in August, when negative news from the eurozone started to adversely affect local investment sentiment. Prices of small industrial units have also climbed by about 30 per cent year-on-year, making them less attractive to investors. But now, interest could pick up again as cash-rich investors look for assets to soak up liquidity.

'There could be a small percentage of buyers who may shift from buying a home in the core central region (CCR) to buying industrial properties,' said Mr Mak, noting that 'most property investors are still unfamiliar with the industrial property market'.

Small retail shops (sometimes as small as 150 square feet) have also started to appear on the market of late, market watchers said. They could find more takers going forward.

Interest in overseas properties could also heat up. In addition to foreigners who will now look elsewhere, Singaporeans - who now have to pay an additional buyer's stamp duty of 3 per cent when they buy their third and subsequent residential properties - might also look abroad.

'As the latest measures by Singapore government would turn away funds for property investment from foreigners, some of these funds could find their way to other overseas markets, such as those in countries with transparent rules and large Asian migrant communities,' said Mr Mak.

'These countries include Australia, Canada, UK, New Zealand and the US coastal cities.'

Camilla Dell, a managing partner at UK-based property consultancy Black Brick Property Solutions, said that her firm is already starting to see an increase in the level of enquiries from Asian and other overseas investors who were previously considering investing in the Singapore property market, but have now changed their mind because of the tax hikes.

In addition to the additional buyer's stamp duty, investors in Singapore have to pay a seller's stamp duty of between 4 and 12 per cent if they re-sell their units within four years of purchase, she pointed out.

'All of this makes Singapore far less attractive for property investors, and London is bound to benefit as a result, where the tax system is far more favourable, particularly for overseas investors who pay no sellers tax or capital gains tax if they are a UK non-resident,' Ms Dell said.

'Stamp duty can also be significantly reduced in the UK as if the property is owned in a company name, buyers pay very little or no tax on the acquisition.'

Analysts also noted that most of the demand for strata-titled commercial and industrial units and overseas properties will mostly shift from the prime CCR area, which includes the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove.

According to data compiled by SLP International, foreigners and corporations bought 36 per cent of all homes sold in the CCR from January to November 2011.

'A foreign buyer of a private home here in Singapore will have to take a very bold move in investing amidst the global crisis and a grim economic outlook in 2012,' said PropNex Realty chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

In contrast, in the outside central region or OCR (which is a proxy for suburban mass market locations), foreigners and corporations accounted for just 16 per cent of all sales in the first 11 months of this year, according to SLP's analysis of caveat data from URA Realis.

Singaporeans bought 71 per cent of all home sold in the OCR, and demand from this buyer segment is expected to hold somewhat.

ikan bilis

16-12-11, 08:36

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC111216-0000070/Cooling-measures-bite-market-segments-differently

Cooling measures bite market segments differently
by Ong Kah Seng 04:45 AM Dec 16, 2011

The year is ending on a sombre note for the private residential market, with severe cooling measures announced earlier this month imposing an additional buyers' stamp duty (ABSD) of 10 per cent on purchases by foreigners.

While prospective buyers, including locals who may be affected by the 3 per cent ABSD, are expected to remain on the sidelines in the next few months, not all private homes will suffer the same impact from the measures.

Landed homes seen resilient

Landed homes will likely be the most unscathed, while speculative products, such as shoebox apartments, will likely experience weakened buying interest. The difference is underpinned by product heterogeneity, foreigners' participation and also the financing capabilities of the buyers' for each product type.

Landed homes are expected to enjoy resilient buying interest next year, as the buyers are predominantly locals who are the least affected by the cooling measures while the supply of such homes is limited. However, non-landed residential properties in the prime districts, which are fairly exclusive, may be more affected as foreigners account for a large share of buyers.

Shoeboxes to be worst hit

Shoebox apartments, particularly those smaller than 500 sq ft each, have gained popularity from 2009 but the success is set to come to a halt next year. There is less motivation to consider buying smaller-sized apartments, particularly when average prices moderate. The typical buyer who finds the shoebox unit acceptable during the price run-up from 2009 to this year may no longer prefer such a home or investment if there are better and larger offerings.

Even before the latest cooling measures were imposed, various developments with shoebox units had been scheduled for completion next year, meaning there will be increased competition between sellers. Although owners will generally hold shoebox units, especially those who had purchased this year and want to avoid paying the hefty sellers' stamp duty, there are some who bought in 2009 and last year who have enjoyed capital appreciation and are considering selling.

Moreover, if a Singaporean can at most hold two private residential properties to avoid paying ABSD for his new purchase, there is less incentive to purchase a smaller-sized apartment. The buyer will likely wish to exercise his limited option on buying a larger or standard-sized unit. There may also be some shoebox home owners who hope to relinquish their units in order to go for more attractive larger sized apartments if prices ease next year.

Suburban condo interest not excessively weakened

The suburban condominium market, with fairly homogenous offerings, will likely see moderated buying interest due to economic challenges. However, as the buyers are mostly HDB upgraders or those owning fewer than two private properties, interest is unlikely to be excessively weakened by the ABSD.

Although the economic slowdown will severely affect job stability, there are still home seekers working in the "evergreen" or fairly recession-proof industries, such as oil and gas, education or statutory boards. They may have continued confidence in financing their homes and appropriately-priced suburban condominiums can appeal to this profile of buyers.

This year has been intense for the private residential market as prices jumped notwithstanding the cooling measures implemented in January that included sellers' stamp duties of as high as 16 per cent. While there is less justification for this month's cooling measures given that economic conditions had moderated late in the year, the latest measures are likely to achieve the best effect in reining optimism in market sentiment.

The dichotomy in the market means that owners of properties which are expected to see weaker buying interest should strive to hold on and emerge from the uncertainty. Property owners can also take a longer-term view by consenting to competitive rental rates, as ultimately there may be opportunities to renew leases at higher rents or even resell at better prices, should the economic and intrinsic property market fundamentals eventually improve.

Ong Kah Seng is a director at R'ST Research, an independent property market research firm in Singapore.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC111216-0000052/Much-ado-about-nothing

Much ado about nothing
by Colin Tan 04:45 AM Dec 16, 2011

The dive in property stock prices following the Dec 7 announcement of additional cooling measures is an admission by the market that it believes that the bulk of home buying in recent quarters - if not years - were investment purchases and not driven by owner-occupiers or upgraders as many had claimed for so long.

How else can we interpret the strong reaction and thinly-disguised anger and bitterness in some of the comments in news reports over the recent days? I was actually more taken aback by these comments than the actual measures themselves. However, the party which should be the most aggrieved - the developers - appears to have taken the latest measures far better than others.

The day after the announcement of the additional buyers' stamp duties of between 3 and 10 per cent on certain transactions, the developers came out in droves - 22 in all - to bid for a landed housing site in Chestnut Ave in Upper Bukit Timah. There is no doubt that the buyers of landed homes are less affected by the cooling measures, but the number of bids and the prices were above expectations. Only one developer was successful, which means 21 others had spare cash to spend. Is this a sign of vulnerability?

If indeed the majority of home purchases this year had been underpinned by strong demand fundamentals - shrinking household sizes and rapid population growth that had resulted in severe undersupply as suggested by some analysts four to five months ago - why is there a panic reaction now?

We have been overwhelmed by numerous negative comments, with almost all analysts predicting at least a 10-per-cent drop in home prices in the next year, with some forecasting a plunge as much as 30 per cent. This translates to an average loss of 2.5 per cent per month or 7.5 per cent per quarter.

Such a steep drop in such a short period - if it occurs - indicates a severe loss of market confidence. Maybe we are thinking about the last decline during the global credit crisis that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers. However, we should not forget that Singapore experienced its deepest post-independence recession then. Are we expecting a recession of the same magnitude next year? The latest economists' forecast is that the Singapore economy will grow 3 per cent next year.

If you had read the report in question, the 30-per-cent drop was predicated on slower population growth and unprecedented home supply, not on slower economic growth or a recession. Some analysts have also drawn comparisons to the 1996 price decline which was precipitated by the introduction of anti-speculation measures in May that year. It is not a fair comparison as the problem then was rampant speculation and it was nipped in the bud. There was no low-interest rate environment.

From the statements accompanying the announcement of the latest measures, it is clear that the authorities see potential destabilising investment flows as the problem. Clearly, they are saying that it is a money issue first before it is a real estate problem. However, most of our market analyses thus far have largely ignored this aspect or dwelt on it only in passing.

Many continue to treat it as a real estate problem, ignore the economic aspect of it and then still expect buyers to be rational in their buying. It will be by pure chance if their calls turn out to be right. I am not saying these analysts are wrong but if you truly understand the complexity of the real problem, it is premature to call a drop in prices at this point in time.

I would also not be unduly worried by some analysts' comments that the heavier stamp duties are making a dent in Singapore's standing as a major property investment destination while giving rivals such as Hong Kong a boost. These comments do not give due recognition to what many respected economists are warning about - the destabilising investment flows into our part of the world.

To continue with a non-interventionist approach in the face of such hot money would be foolhardy - it would be courting disaster. In fact, I would say the current measures have enhanced Singapore's standing as a safe haven and an extremely attractive property investment destination.

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

dmonddd

16-12-11, 13:45

dmonddd

16-12-11, 13:50

What I hear and read is OCR condos will be priced $1500psf whilst prime condos will be priced $1400psf.

Is it logical? The price discrimination should flow from CCR to OCR. Let's see

Alan Shearer

16-12-11, 14:07

Who you hear that from? Mr Bean?

dmonddd

16-12-11, 14:30

Can see those who just give one liner response -shooting from hip. Cowboys. Throwing such boomerang question

From the forumers here la.
If you sum up the posts of certain group of forumers especially those who don't rationalize

Retirees agents housewives - they have better views than the expert analysts

dmonddd

16-12-11, 14:34

Interesting read from today's paper on china property market.
When I was there end of last month I asked my chinese colleagues about their shanghai market. Most will comment that it will hold ignoring the fact of slower sales and developers offices stormed. Sound familiar. Pre crisis same optimism I saw then.

sunrise

16-12-11, 15:11

All talks about foreigner coming in to buy- yes normally at D9,10,11

my FT buddies always complained about our highly priced $$$ condos and also cars.

Indonesian malaysian and china Chinese are 3 key investors.
All 3 countries are also facing the economic crunch in home countries

Watch future interest rate curves

they will continue to dump in $$$ becos singapore can protect their asset.
they are rich but they are not safe in hometown. they can spend what ever they want here, just observe taka and vivo. partial of their spending is from the property gain. they have the power to hold becos they make tons from hometown. right to say our hometown is their safebox. CM5 mainly benefits the garments. without them many of us here will be jobless. who should you vote?

dmonddd

16-12-11, 15:17

they will continue to dump in $$$ becos singapore can protect their asset.
they are rich but they are not safe in hometown. they can spend what ever they want here, just observe taka and vivo. partial of their spending is from the property gain. they have the power to hold becos they make tons from hometown. right to say our hometown is their safebox. CM5 mainly benefits the garments. without them many of us here will be jobless.

yes...their spending and gambling in singapore...our gain.
but who are these investors...business owners? professionals

for business owners..what will be key to them? business cashflows or assets.
when crunch comes...they dont buy properties to make money. they focus their cash resources on business or wait for opportunities in property market

ask an indonesian chinese, if they have a condo /condos here? yes
will they buy now? ask them. agents? any? their wives probably. Businessman is the most shrewd of us all when it comes to making$$$
i definitely cant make the cut to be a successful businessman

unless they are blind not to sense the current global issues. oil prices my take will shoot up up up further. What'll be the impact?
think think...inflation galloping again

dmonddd

16-12-11, 15:20

singapore is better vs other south east asean countries

malaysia is second on the list, not bad but invest after elections
cheaper? if i'm fund manager i will be watching malaysia property market closely

only malaysia biggest problem - public security

Alan Shearer

16-12-11, 15:20

For those who can pay 2 to 20m cash, the 10% is irrelevant

CM5 will have zero effect except slowdown for 3 or 4 weeks

dmonddd

16-12-11, 15:37

the rich capitalizes when market is weak.
like they said why the rich gets richer

check out the private banking customers - every penny/cent they calculate.
listening to others who dont have ground feel will mislead others ..myopia vision

slowdown in international trade..less resources/raw materials required...food consumption flat level..biz needs higher margins because lower sales...oil price higher inflation...less jobs offered....biz cu operating costs especially the fixed operating costs, no pay rise...individual disposal income negative..banks faces competition .. lower margins/profits....higher unemployment rates

sunrise

16-12-11, 15:41

dmonddd

16-12-11, 17:11

wouldn't they invest in London/HK/US (florida/New york) properties?

btw the 5 properties for US$200k in US.
checked with buddies from states. Guaranteed rental yield
but those properties were built century ago....they themselves don't buy
rented to low income level citizens...indirectly US gahmen taking foreigners' $$ to subsidize their citizens.

the data seems not to reflect the real ground situation. Same in most countries.
For example the inflation rate..all know the inflation rate takes basket of goods and doesnt reflect the prices we pay when we buy food..or it should...the owners/businessmen are the ones making super normal profits?

what if tmw interest rates (lending) SIBOR goes up to double?
would all now afford mass market? rent cashflow sufficient to cover monthly installments or subsidize monthly installments using disposable income?

Challenging? remember minister KBW did mention that rates would not be forever low......

ikan bilis

16-12-11, 17:13

biztimes sgp, 16 Dec 2011,.... but not my cup of tea....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Published December 16, 2011

Johor property poised to draw spotlight
Iskandar Malaysia, new stamp duty on S'pore property deals drive interest

By PAULINE NG
IN KUALA LUMPUR

MORE costly private homes in Singapore - the result of new taxes - as well as perceivable improvements to Iskandar Malaysia, could turn the spotlight on Johor real estate next year.

Analysts expect the southern Malaysian state to benefit from the recent move by the Singapore government to make home ownership more within reach of a wider group, with UEM Land looking in good position to capitalise on the changes given its very sizeable landbank in Iskandar.

Last week, the Singapore government slapped foreign buyers with an additional 10 per cent tax on the value of residential properties acquired. Permanent residents buying second and subsequent homes and Singaporeans acquiring third or subsequent houses were also hit, albeit with an extra 3 per cent tax.

Around the same time, Malaysia's Genting group officially opened South-east Asia's first branded discount Premium Outlets in Kulai Jaya, north of Johor. Already, the Johor Premium Outlets (JPO) has attracted hordes of shoppers to its 70 stores - many apparently from Singapore - few leaving without bags. So encouraged are its owners, Genting Plantations and Premium Outlets, that they are already talking about the second phase of 60 additional stores and a water theme park in three to four years' time.

Local daily The Star reported that in total some RM1 billion (S$410.5 million) would be invested in the JPO project with other components in the pipeline to include a 2,000 room hotel with facilities for the lucrative meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions segment.

Although not within the special economic zone, JPO will certainly bring more locals, Singaporeans and other foreigners to Johor. This is set to benefit Iskandar Malaysia which five years to its launch is beginning to look more appealing in part also because a number of infrastructure projects have been completed.

If UEM Land's property sales this year are any indication, interest is mounting. The government linked company sold nearly RM1.8 billion worth of properties in the first nine months compared to RM948 million for the whole of last year.

In the third quarter, the flagship zone of Nusajaya contributed RM382 million compared to non-Nusajaya new sales of RM367 million.

In a client report, CIMB noted demand in Nusajaya appears to be gathering momentum as Q3's new sales topped 1H11's RM357 million. But UEM Land does not expect Nusajaya sales to exceed non-Nusajaya sales until 2013.

Landbanking is also on the rise, with the report noting a buyer's interest in 100 plus acres of Nusajaya land valued at over RM100 million. The sale is only expected to be concluded next year.

At the Putri Harbour area, UEM Land's maiden condo project of 246 units soft-launched in September is 61 per cent sold.

Prices averaged RM725 psf, 'a figure unheard of in Johor,' the stockbroker observed.

Four out of ten buyers were Malaysians, the rest from Singapore and Japan. Several purchased units because they plan to send their children to EduCity where Marlborough College and the medicine faculty of Newcastle University will be located.

UEM Land is apparently toying with the idea of bringing forward two condo projects but marketed under the Sunrise brand, having bought out the shareholders of the luxury condo developer last year.

dmonddd

16-12-11, 17:20

and you see in some threads that forumers show strong historical sales for past 11 months.....historical shows future?

you can sure learn from history but would not be able to show the current map for next 6/12 months. dont talk about 2015/2020. NOW 6-12 months horizon is difficult to predict.

I always wanted to be a property agent...good commissions income during good times...no brainer as everything can sell.

same when downturn as risk is on sellers/buyers. Nothing to lose.

watch our gahmen's moves and actions (you may get some good hints)....I cant find any reason for a gahmen that wants to kill their citizens (majority) - Singapore. other countries within south east asia I cannot vouch for same

dmonddd

16-12-11, 17:32

iskandar - interesting versus heart of Malaysia - Kuala Lumpur/Penang

why Penang - check the majority race there. Taiwanese like this city

Why iskandar - demand from singaporeans who find the properties cheap. weekend homes. Buddy who visited some of the estates...houses empty during weekedays. weekends occupied. excellent security few levels with gurkhas guard
another buddy posed a valid question - you still need to drive out of high security estate and would you be Safe?
good if there's a Mrt straight from woodlands to iskandar

kuala lumpur - at least there are investors other than singaporeans...more international? perhaps middle easterners, taiwanese...fund managers been always eyeing this city for opportunities. but nowadays oversupply of condo..take mont kiara. need to ensure condo you are interested in, can be differentiated from others.

my take - KL

dmonddd

16-12-11, 17:35

2 countries/cities that interests me as a property investor - Hong kong and Shanghai.

ikan bilis

16-12-11, 18:12

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pb3.cfm?File=20111216/pba01/1.txt

論負資產的禍害

文章日期：2011年12月16日

近期香港的負資產數字出現回升，但大多數人都掉以輕心，更有議員認為樓價仍跌不夠，政府應維持打擊樓市措施。其實，大多數人都可能忽視了若負資產再急升，可能做成如何大的負面影響；或許，金管局總裁陳德霖日前在一個經濟論壇所發表的講辭，能夠予大家對負資產的禍害，有更深入的認識。

陳德霖指出，「當一個國家長期入不敷支，靠發債度日，以債養債，變成泥足深陷，遲早會出大事。屆時唯一救亡之路便是要減債，同時要承受去槓桿化所帶來的強烈痛楚。槓桿化或借貸一般會創造一段時間的繁華現象：就業機會和收入增加、消費、投資和信貸需求旺盛，資產升值，又帶來百業興旺。相比之下，去槓桿化剛好相反，它會帶來很大的痛楚。」

「中央銀行大幅注資銀行體系從而壓低利率，的確可以為部分欠債者紓困，因為他們可以利用較低的利率去融資和還債，減輕利息負擔。然而，美國很多家庭目前並不能享受按揭利率愈來愈低的好處。因為很多家庭陷入負資產的困局，無辦法去轉按，所以即使按揭利息再低，對這些家庭也並無太大好處。而且當利率被壓低至近乎零，就會剝奪了謹慎儲蓄者的利息收入。在近乎零利息的環境下，包括領取養老金人士在內的眾多儲蓄者，都因為日常利息收入大跌而必須節衣縮食，減低消費，這又會抵銷低息環境刺激消費和投資的意欲的作用。」

「有些學者指出，美國實行量化寬鬆貨幣政策效用不彰的其中一個重要原因，就是美國房地產市場仍未見底和美國家庭仍然要繼續去槓桿化。美國近期不少政策，都旨在紓解國民在房價下跌時的困境，並拖慢房屋被銀行回收的過程和速度。」

「現時，雖然美國房屋價格已大幅下跌，在部分地區更據說跌近一半，但很多潛在買家仍不太願意入巿，因為他們擔心大量被回收銀主盤遲早會重投市場，大大增加供應。又或者利率會重上較正常水平，令樓價再度下跌。」

「換言之，雖然推出減慢樓價下調速度的政策有其良好的政治意願，但它卻阻慢了市場取得新平衡點，達致所謂新的均衡價格。我認為這只會延遲了房地產市場的真正復甦，並拖慢家庭資產負債表修復的速度，而令到消費者信心和需求復元之日亦會變得更加遙遠。」

總言之，若一地的樓價大跌並形成了大量負資產，不要以為只要政府改變政策，便可以輕易將樓價托上去。這時候，就算政府壓低新做按揭利率，負資產也已喪失了轉按的能力，而屆時低息環境，又會打擊了主要靠食息的退休族，形成惡成循環。

撰文：陸振球 (明報地產版主管)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
=> so you people better don't suka suka keep hoping for price to crash... ;)

http://property.mpfinance.com/image/shim.gif

dmonddd

16-12-11, 20:34

how all those with properties wish that prices are up...

but you cant deny that every economy will go through cycles like industries

otherwise there wont be these terms called property cycle, bulls and bears
we need to be cognizant of the cycle trend

just read the russian customs seizure of radioactive material on route to Iran
good at least they stop disaster...greater concerns on higher oil prices....

dmonddd

16-12-11, 20:36

what singapore gahmen is preparing all - how to buffer the tsunami shock if it comes...

same with other gahmens

dmonddd

16-12-11, 20:41

shanghai is still growing....

interesting article.

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=490192&type=Business

amk

16-12-11, 20:52

what singapore gahmen is preparing all - how to buffer the tsunami shock if it comes...

By introducing CM5? Not at all ! To prepare for it, the prudent thing to do is to further tighten lending, not to force a negative equity, especially knowing a crisis is coming. What we need is a soft landing, not hard landing.

The Chinese article quoted above is worth a good read.

dmonddd

16-12-11, 21:21

tighten lending...a fire tool dangerous to play with.
CM5 contains $$$ flows in and out

remember the experiences we and other countries had - tightening lending.
the engine die-ded...developers will face issues on take out source of their bridging loans...buyers end financing...developers will not buy land..developers would not want to use its reserves cash to build projects

not to forget the impact on supporting businesses

remember buyers then were practically begging to get loans.

banks were caught....took alot of deposits liabilities paying interests to depositors but nowhere to lend - scared/constrained.

dmonddd

17-12-11, 11:25

more good news will come...EU will resolve their problems with some plans
US will report good stats in coming 2012

but above doesn't translate to higher prices in property market in Asia
good news will lead to flat prices in 2012....whilst bad news will spiral down the prices

why? all companies are preparing for tougher 2012....company I'm working in is all ready on standby for stormy weather.

"need" comes first priority. "want" is no longer in talk.

"Need" to have a place to stay,
"Want" to buy few more properties for investments -?

can't stand those who continue to paint non logical/senseless picture.
like i said i do have 2 rented apartments - do i want prices to crash..definitely NO. do i want to sell? yes...discounted ? yes...profits ? yes.

why am i selling? deleveraging and more downsides...world happenings beyond my control BUT selling and realizing profits are ..1/2 glass empty ok. if wait for full glass...worried the glass will crack and ended no water. have to wait to repair glass crack and wait to refill water in another 2 years.

chinese proverb so long can stay alive in mountains, no worry that there's no fire wood.

cant understand those forumers who hope and hope that world happenings are as if within their control LOL

good luck...am just seeing my buddy agent

please other forumers here who are agents..dont pm me...my buddy agent is more helpful and truthful on ground happenings cant let her down

DC33_2008

17-12-11, 11:30

Mid-term speculators are affected but not long-term speculator. Just pass on the properties as long as they are units in good location and FHs.;)

ysyap

17-12-11, 11:34

No one is every sure of the future... best is estimate and hope against hope... sell or buy is totally within one's control. Cheers! :spliff:

Allthepies

17-12-11, 12:04

dmonddd

17-12-11, 13:05

agree but also to ensure the banks are not hit in case the foreigners run..like in Dubai

jwong71

17-12-11, 14:25

No one is every sure of the future... best is estimate and hope against hope... sell or buy is totally within one's control. Cheers! :spliff:
Look ard and knowing those "special pple" have 1st hand news, know what's going on.
Look at their portfolio, probably is a gd indicator.

buttercarp

17-12-11, 15:23

The only reason why the government introduced CM5 under the current bad economy is becos the government expect a large inflow of capital... CM 5 just help to reduce or block this inflow of capital....:2cents: :2cents: :2cents:

Coz they scared there will be a mass outflow of liquidity when the economy picks up?
But with property, it cannot just efflux so quickly.
Need the right time to sell.
So I can't comprehend the need for CM5.

amk

17-12-11, 19:16

So I can't comprehend the need for CM5.

I said this many many times already, it's political.

ikan bilis

22-12-11, 21:27

for other people, just one single land parcel size is for like 10,000 condo units... equivalent to our 1 yr GLS... :scared-4:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20111222-317765.html

Hongkong Land buys $795mil site in Chongqing http://business.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gif

HONG KONG – Hongkong Land said on Thursday it had bought a 52-hectare site in the western Chinese city of Chongqing for 3.9 billion yuan (S$795 million).

The site is next to the company’s existing Yorkville development, land it bought in 2010.

The new land is in the district of Zhaomushan, near a new special economic zone laid out by Beijing.

Hongkong Land will use the new site for a luxury residential development, with around 1 million square meters of real estate.

Hongkong Land already has two joint venture projects in Chongqing, the economic hub of southwestern China, on a tributary of the Yangtze river.

kane

22-12-11, 21:45

ikan bilis

23-12-11, 12:45

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC111223-0000039/A-tale-of-two-cities

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A tale of two cities

by Tan Chin Keong 04:45 AM Dec 23, 2011

Avid readers of regional newspapers would have noticed an interesting trend recently: While headlines in Hong Kong and China have highlighted declining transaction volumes and sliding prices in their residential property markets, local newspapers are still reporting healthy demand, especially for mass-market homes, with prices reaching record highs.

An interesting case in point is the recent launch of Bedok Residences, which attracted strong interest from buyers who queued for days to book their choice units. To be sure, Bedok Residences has strong and unique selling points, being integrated with Bedok bus interchange and situated next to Bedok MRT Station. Still, the overwhelming response stood in stark contrast to the declining buyer interest in Hong Kong and China.

A look at past residential property market cycles would reveal that Singapore and Hong Kong tend to track each other closely. Some market observers even argue that Hong Kong's residential prices tend to lead Singapore's by a few quarters. This was evident in 2008/2009, when prices of private homes in Hong Kong started to recover around the end of 2008, whereas prices in Singapore did so only in the second quarter of the following year.

This close correlation between Singapore and Hong Kong residential prices is to be expected given that both cities are vibrant and highly-open economies with scarce land supply (in contrast with China, which has abundant land resources).

Governments intervene with cooling measures

Perhaps not surprisingly, the governments of both Hong Kong and Singapore have been trying to cool home prices over the last two years - through the imposition of harsh measures and the introduction of record pipeline supply of residential land bank.

In Hong Kong, the government imposed last year a special stamp duty on residential property sold within two years of purchase. This year, it also set a land sales target that would supply 20,000 units a year for the next 10 years, higher than the take-up rates for last year and this year.

In Singapore, the Government imposed early this year a seller's stamp duty of 4 to 16 per cent on private residential properties sold within four years of purchase. This month, the Government also introduced an additional buyer's stamp duty on certain categories of residential purchases - 10 per cent for foreign buyers; and 3 per cent for both permanent resident buyers who already own a home and citizens who already own two residential properties.

Mortgage rates make the difference

So what contributed to the recent decoupling of Singapore and Hong Kong home prices?

The simple answer is mortgage rates.

Driven by strong loan growth and rising loan-to-deposit ratios, Hong Kong banks have raised their mortgage rate spreads since early this year. This has resulted in higher mortgage rates and reduced demand for residential properties, which in turn led to the slide in private home prices since September.

On the other hand, the Government's property cooling efforts have so far been thwarted by very low mortgage rates. With base interest rates remaining near record lows and Singapore banks charging very low mortgage spreads, affordability remains high.

However, there is a risk that Singapore mortgage rates would rise next year from their current low levels. Like their Hong Kong peers, Singapore banks have also experienced strong loan growth over the past year, which in turn has pushed up their loan-to-deposit ratios - although it must be said that ratios in Singapore dollars are generally still low.

Moreover, with the debt crisis that is plaguing the European Union, there has been anecdotal evidence that some European banks are pulling back their credit lines in Singapore to help boost capital ratios as required by the EU debt plan. If these banks continue to deleverage, it could result in less competition in the lending market for Singapore banks, which may then feel comfortable enough to raise their lending spreads, including mortgage spreads.

In fact, during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, local banks such as UOB and OCBC were able to increase their net interest margins as foreign banks reduced their lending activities in Singapore.

Thus, while the recent decoupling in Singapore and Hong Kong residential property prices may make for an interesting read, we do not expect it to last for long, especially with the latest round of cooling measures introduced in Singapore.

Tan Chin Keong is an analyst at UBS Wealth Management Research.

ikan bilis

23-12-11, 17:00

(BizTimes, sgp) Published December 23, 2011

Prices of resale HDB flats seen correcting
Sales volume could fall slightly, say analysts

By MINDY TAN

(SINGAPORE) While HDB resale prices are expected to remain stable in 2012, with marginal softening of the COVs (cash-over-valuation), leading to an overall price correction of between 1 and 5 per cent, sales volumes could fall slightly as buyers assess their options beyond the resale market.

Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of PropNex Realty, feels that the overall price of HDB resale homes will see a 1 to 2 per cent correction.

'Overall, we believe that HDB resale prices will remain, with marginal softening of the COVs only in the second half of 2012,' he added.

According to Lee Sze Teck, senior manager of research and consultancy at Dennis Wee Group (DWG), HDB resale flat prices could correct by up to 5 per cent.

ERA Realty Network's key executive officer Eugene Lim, on the other hand, countered that resale prices are likely to rise by between 5 and 6 per cent for the first half of 2012, on account that there is still a supply crunch in the resale HDB market.

'So far, much has been said that Singapore's economic growth may slow down or even run into a recession should the global situation deteriorate. Whilst the threat remains, things have not yet turned bad,' he added.

Beyond the historical under-supply of HDB flats in the 2001 to 2010 decade, some of the key reasons for the supply crunch lie in policies that have been effected in recent times.

As part of the cooling measures implemented in August last year, it was mandated that resale flat buyers who are private property owners had to dispose of their private homes within six months of purchasing their HDB resale unit.

In addition, the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) of non-subsidised flats was increased from three to five years.

This means that HDB upgraders might be reluctant to sell their HDB flats because it may be more difficult for them to buy a HDB flat in the future, said DWG's Mr Lee. These upgraders will be looking to rent out their HDB flats, resulting in less supply of resale flats.

ERA's Mr Lim added: 'We are likely to see around 24,000 to 25,000 resale transactions for 2011. This is possibly the lowest ever recorded. Over the last five years, the average is around 30,000 a year.'

'Though the DBSS programme is put on hold, we are expecting executive condominium (EC) launches to be stepped up in 2012; and this may affect the resale market demand for 2012,' he said.

Indeed, with the 25,000 new BTO flats slated to be released in 2012, the success rate of getting a new home for first-time buyers is going to be higher, pointed out Propnex's Mr Ismail.

'The increase in the income ceiling for homebuyers of ECs and BTOs would encourage more to buy BTOs. As such the HDB resale sales volume is likely to drop,' he said.

In August, the monthly household income ceiling was raised from $8,000 to $10,000 for applicants of new HDB flats; ECs had a new raised income ceiling of $12,000.

'This would have diverted demand away from the resale market as many buyers would now be able to qualify for new flats as their income fell within the raised ceiling,' added Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui.

Png Poh Soon, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore, added: 'Supply in the form of BTO and ECs are likely to be a key threat to the resale market.

'BTO buyers with budget constraints will evaluate the options of buying new and paying at a more attractive level for their homes. Homebuyers who are considering upgrade options may consider ECs as more ECs are planned in 2012 and the recent ABSD (additional buyer's stamp duty) does not apply to them.'

Sigrid Zialcita, managing director for research services in Asia Pacific for Cushman & Wakefield, agreed to a certain extent: 'The larger supply of BTO flats as well as the raising of the income ceiling will go some way in reining in COV, but the effect is unlikely to be immediate . . . Mature estates have well-established amenities and older flats have a larger floor area, so the attitudes to buying a BTO flat would need some time to catch on.'

That being said, transaction volumes for resale flats might dip, in light of the new cooling measures.

While the HDB market is relatively insulated from the ABSD measures announced earlier this month - given that most buyers are first-timers or owner- occupiers rather than investors or foreigners - consultants acknowledge that buyers may take a wait-and- see approach.

'If private market prices come down, and buyers think they can afford to go into the private market, this will have an impact on the resale market,' said DWG's Mr Lee.

'If economic conditions take a turn for the worse and monthly sales figures (in the developers' sales market) drop below 1,000 units, prices could slip up to 10 per cent in 2012 . . . this will also affect the HDB resale market and prices in the HDB resale market could ease by up to 5 per cent,' he added.

'Lastly, construction costs could pick up in 2012 and beyond. The large amount of BTO flats sold in 2011, shorter construction period for BTO flats and the reduction in project completion to five years for private residential sites means that there will be competition for construction resources and that could drive up costs,' warns Mr Lee.

'The expected slowdown in the property market and possible increase in construction costs could be a double whammy for the property market in 2012.'

ikan bilis

24-12-11, 20:50

(biztimes, sgp) Published December 24, 2011

Industrial property momentum seen slowing
Prices and rentals next year are unlikely to escalate at the pace witnessed in 2011, says SLP International

By UMA SHANKARI

INDUSTRIAL real estate prices are expected to increase by 5-10 per cent next year, while rentals should register more moderate growth of 3-8 per cent year on year, said SLP International in a report.

'With the Singapore government's 2012 growth forecast for the country at only one per cent to 3 per cent, industrial real estate prices and rentals are unlikely to escalate at the pace witnessed in 2011.'

However, demand for landed terrace factory space should hold up better than other types of industrial property in the event of an economic slowdown, the property firm's analysts predicted. This is due to strong occupier demand for such space and limited stock, they said.

On the other end of the spectrum is small strata-titled factory units. This asset class has attracted considerable investor demand over the past quarters, leading to 'near speculative' prices that could collapse should the economy witness a significant and prolonged dip, SLP said.

'For the whole of 2011, the industrial property segment has witnessed a general increase in the proportion of investors to owner-occupiers in primary sales launches.

'When the economic climate turns cautious, this group of investors can also be expected to tighten their purse strings, possibly leading to an overall moderation of buying demand.'

And as for businesses or owner-occupiers, an uncertain business environment in the coming year is unlikely to motivate an expansion of production space.

In addition, a contraction in demand for space is likely should production levels remain hampered by the global predicaments. Therefore, the growth in demand from owner-occupiers would also be limited by the widely expected softer economy, SLP said.

On top of this, supply is set to be ramped up. According to SLP, an estimated 13.1 million square feet of net factory space could enter the market over 2012 - the second heaviest yearly supply load to be introduced in history.

However, SLP also pointed out in its report that all those downsides should be mitigated by an expectant influx of investment interest from the residential property market, which is likely to be hit given the new government measures to cool demand.

Other analysts have similarly said that growth in rents and prices of industrial space would taper off next year on the back of falling demand and fears of a supply glut.

In particular, industrial real estate investment trusts (Reits) will adopt a more cautious stance as leasing activity is likely to be limited to mostly renewal and consolidation rather than expansion - at least in Q1 2012, said OCBC Investment Research analyst Kevin Tan.

'From the industrial Reits' perspective, we believe these developments may likely induce them to take on a more cautious stance and be more selective on their acquisition plans,' he said.

This is especially true for those Reits with a higher than average leverage, as raising capital - notably equity fund-raising - in such uncertain market conditions would almost certainly attract the ire from unitholders, he said in a December 19 report.

Similarly, Reits with large portfolios may also find it increasingly difficult to make sizeable yield-accretive investments, exacerbated by the fact that the capital values of industrial properties have held up well so far, Mr Tan added. But he also noted that industrial Reits now have stronger financial positions and greater access to capital, unlike what was seen in the global financial crisis. OCBC maintained its 'overweight' call on the industrial Reits sector.

peterng8

24-12-11, 21:02

ikan bilis

27-12-11, 17:18

(BizTimes, sgp) Published December 27, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Hard landing in China? Not in 2012: analysts
Politics is the main reason - it'll be a year leading up to a power transfer in early 2013

By SHU-CHING JEAN CHEN
IN HONG KONG

IF China is headed for a hard landing, it is unlikely to happen in 2012.

The primary reason quoted by analysts is politics. In a year of a power transfer, a China landing, soft or hard, would resemble more a slow-motion drama than an action film. Its day of reckoning will be delayed by a government determined to defend the Communist Party's image and its economy by all means possible, ahead of the handover to the next central leadership in March 2013.

The second reason is fundamentals. The central government is backed by years of fiscal surpluses outstripping its GDP growth - so much so that it has become a subject of scorn at home. One analyst compared it to an imperial court.

Still, the right question to ask in the coming year is no longer how fast China will grow, but how quickly it will slow down, and then rebound.

The implications for the global economy cannot be overstated. China likely accounted for 42 per cent of global growth in 2011 on a purchasing power parity basis and, together with India, is poised to contribute almost 60 per cent of global growth in 2012, according to Nomura.

The official Xinhua News Agency captured the mood of China's top leaders gathering for the nation's top economic-planning session called the Central Economic Working Conference held each year in mid-December with the headline: 'Shifting Economic Growth to Self-sufficiency'.

The leaders themselves summarised the theme in 2012 in four words: 'pursuing progress amid stability' - terms that are not exactly worry-free in China's cryptic official vocabulary.

The challenges are many. President Hu Jintao and his top lieutenant Premier Wen Jiabao spoke at the conference of the 'very significant conflict and problems in the nation's unbalanced, inconsistent, unsustainable economic development; the coexistence of downward pressure on economic growth and upward pressure of price inflation; the difficulty faced by some enterprises; the obstacles on the road to energy savings; and lurking risks in finance'.

The worry about inflation and the announcement to keep the yuan's exchange rate stable are at odds with the expectation of Goldman Sachs, said its economist Yu Song. Goldman thinks that the fight against inflation is largely over. It also spots a shift to allow a weaker yuan to stabilise exports - a sector on which many small and medium enterprises depend for their survival.

The leadership also surprised the market by leaving no doubt about its stand on real estate. It declared 'an unswerved insistence on micro-managing policies of the real estate industry'.

Beijing seems to be more worried about China's economic development than most analysts in the region. HSBC and Merrill Lynch both predict 8.6 per cent GDP growth in 2012, down from 9.2 per cent in 2011.

CLSA's Francis Cheung, head of China and Hong Kong strategy, went further by suggesting that things are 'getting easier' for China. He expects the Chinese authorities to start pump- priming the economy through loosening credit. CLSA's economists forecast a rise in China's growth trajectory from the nadir of 8 per cent in the first quarter of 2012, all the way back to a quarterly 9 per cent growth by year-end.

The gloomiest assessment so far comes from Nomura's team. Its China economists Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen predict Chinese GDP growth will slide to 7.9 per cent in 2012 - the first below-8 per cent performance since Asia's regional financial crisis in 1997-98.

'Exports will be a headwind, but we do not expect deep negative growth like in the first half of 2009,' they write in a year-end report. 'Instead, the main drag on GDP will be a pullback in property investment, with likely knock-on effects on heavy industry, such as steel and cement, and possibly wealth effects on consumption.' They see a one-in-three probability of a hard landing commencing before end-2014.

Merrill Lynch's China economist Ting Lu, in contrast, expects China to achieve a soft landing in 2012.

'We think the property market is easier to manage for China than exports, which are totally out of its control,' he said in a recent briefing, while also acknowledging the major domestic risk is 'a possible plunging' in fixed-asset investment by developers.

Mr Lu's main calculation of a soft landing also lies in property. 'Social housing will be a crucial factor. We don't doubt the Chinese government's determination in building more social housing (for the low-income group),' he said.

But China's property sector is where consensus is hardest to find.

For CLSA's Mr Cheung, a property bubble in China is virtually non-existent. He tracked property prices in the first-tier cities in the 10 years to 2011 and found their pace of growth has been slower than GDP growth and that the affordability ratio is within a 41 per cent tolerance band of per capita disposable income. He said China's problem is a wealth gap, not a property bubble. Because of the low leverage of China's homebuyers, he feels the risk in the New Year is in property policy itself.

For China's leaders, however, the wealth gap is a problem that cannot be taken lightly - certainly no less so than a property bubble. As 2012 will make clear, there won't be an easy way out for either issue.

ikan bilis

27-12-11, 17:20

(BizTimes, sgp) Published December 27, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Redas, industry studying cooling measures: sources
Suggestions also being raised, some may be presented to the authorities

By UMA SHANKARI

(SINGAPORE) The Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) has been holding a series of meetings with industry players to look into the impact of the latest round of property curbs, sources told BT.

According to the sources, meetings were held recently with stakeholders such as developers, property consultants, brokerage analysts and lawyers.

They discussed the intended objectives of the cooling measures - which include an additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) of 10 per cent for foreigners - as well as the likely consequences.

BT understands that several suggestions for a more 'calibrated' approach were also raised at the meetings. Some of those proposals, which are still being explored and fine-tuned, could eventually be tabled and presented to the authorities, sources said.

One idea floated was to identify 'hot spots' for foreign investments according to postal district codes, and then apply tiered stamp duties.

According to a recent CBRE analysis of URA's caveat data lodged from January 2011 to November 2011, almost 29 per cent of private homes in the core central region - which includes the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove - were purchased by foreigners.

By contrast, the foreigners' share was only just over 14 per cent in the outside central region, which is a proxy for suburban mass market locations.

Industry players also suggested that instead of singling out foreigners to bear heavier taxes, the authorities could give more incentives to support Singapore citizens and Permanent Residents (PRs). One proposal was to provide more generous subsidies for first-time homebuyers.

Under the latest round of measures announced on Dec 7, foreigners and corporations have to pay an ABSD of 10 per cent - on top of the existing buyer's stamp duty of up to 3 per cent.

The new duty will also apply to PRs buying their second or subsequent homes and Singaporeans buying their third residential property or more - though only to the tune of 3 per cent.

Those at the meetings noted that foreign buyers have not significantly contributed to the increase in mass market home prices.

Based on a list collated by Redas ahead of the meetings, foreigners had a strong presence in only three out of 33 selected projects launched recently.

At least 50 per cent of the units in the three projects, all of which are targeted at mid to high-end buyers, were sold to foreigners, PRs and corporations. And only one project had more than 50 per cent of units sold purely to foreigners.

Industry players also noted that the new measures do not address the rising prices of resale HDB flats - which are thought to underpin the demand for mass market private homes and the subsequent price surge in that segment.

Analysts are split over whether the ABSD is here to stay. CBRE's executive director for residential, Joseph Tan, thinks that the duty is not likely to be around forever.

'We are of the opinion that these measures are unlikely to be a permanent feature because of the nature of Singapore's highly open economy,' he said in a recent report.

But Chua Hak Bin, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the government is shifting to a 'Singaporeans first' policy, and that the differentiated buyer's stamp duty may therefore become a permanent fixture.

'The differentiated buyer's stamp duty may remain even after property markets cool, as the government moves towards differentiating the privileges and rights of Singaporeans, permanent residents and foreigners,' Dr Chua said in a Dec 15 note.

Any relaxation would likely occur by way of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios or the seller's stamp duty, he added.

When the measures were announced, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of National Development said that they were introduced to moderate investment demand for private homes and promote a more stable and sustainable market.

But industry players have speculated that in addition, the government could have unstated intentions such as lowering the cost of living, implementing a 'Singaporeans first' policy, and managing foreign investments into Singapore.

hyenergix

27-12-11, 19:42

REDAS is courting death for hinting to government to come out with CM6 for public housing and shoot themselves in the foot in the mass market condos segment.

"Industry players also noted that the new measures do not address the rising prices of resale HDB flats - which are thought to underpin the demand for mass market private homes and the subsequent price surge in that segment."

teddybear

27-12-11, 20:18

No lah, they are pointing out the sorely obvious problem currently existing (the same one I pointed previously, else how to explain Bedok Residences selling at average of $1350 psf!!!) but yet they come out with a CM to kill something (the foreigners) that has nothing to do with the problem! :doh:

At $1350 psf, I just need to pay 10% more and I can buy a mid-end property in the central River Valley area rather than that ulu Bedok mass market condos! :beats-me-man:

REDAS is courting death for hinting to government to come out with CM6 for public housing and shoot themselves in the foot in the mass market condos segment.

"Industry players also noted that the new measures do not address the rising prices of resale HDB flats - which are thought to underpin the demand for mass market private homes and the subsequent price surge in that segment."

proud owner

28-12-11, 07:41

kane

28-12-11, 07:58

REDAS appears to be 'desperate' now cos the latest CM affects their prime developments....

Marq may have established new highs but its not selling well ...

These series of meetings ..why no representative from the public ?

Doesnt Redas want to know what the buyers are thinking ?
They are probably afraid that the arrow will be pointed at them for their rediculous pricing ..

Frankly if they feel that foreigners don't contribute a great deal to their sales nor are they tthe definers in the residential spac.e, they don't need to bother having a series of meetings

Jonathan0503

28-12-11, 07:59

hyenergix

28-12-11, 08:02

No lah, they are pointing out the sorely obvious problem currently existing (the same one I pointed previously, else how to explain Bedok Residences selling at average of $1350 psf!!!) but yet they come out with a CM to kill something (the foreigners) that has nothing to do with the problem! :doh:

At $1350 psf, I just need to pay 10% more and I can buy a mid-end property in the central River Valley area rather than that ulu Bedok mass market condos! :beats-me-man:

These type of news will be circulated directly to the senior managements of MND and the agencies. Confirmed all the points highlighted in the article will be put under microscope for further analysis for potential future measures.

avo7007

28-12-11, 08:26

ikan bilis

28-12-11, 13:52

teddybear

28-12-11, 15:22

If that is the real mission, what has that got to do with property price? :scared-2:
Might as well tax all incoming "hot" money that didn't go into real business at 10% easier! :tongue3:
Otherwise they will causing all the hot money to go into other places like commercial, retail, and office properties, causing rampant inflation! My plate of chicken rice already got so little chicken meat & rice left and I need to buy 2 plates to fill my stomach! Soon I will need to buy 3 plates to fill my stomach (and yet such "modified price increase" will never show up in CPI)! :doh:
Yah right, even with such "modified price increase" which will not show up in CPI, why CPI still up 5.7%? If all these "modified price increase" has been accounted for, real CPI will be up >20%? :scared-1:

I know what you mean, but the political price is high to implement CM that hurts citizen. Hitting foreigner is politically more palatable. And CM5 is more about taking the steam off "hot" money rather than why BR is selling at $1350psf......

amk

28-12-11, 15:31

CM5 is not really for "taking steam off hot money" lah.
It's more for political purpose. The gov wants to help Singaporeans to fulfill the "condo upgrade" dream.

hyenergix

28-12-11, 15:35

NUS -Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI)

November 2011 Flash SRPI Values
SRPI Basket as at December 2009

Index Value

(Dec 2001= 100)

Month-on-month

change

SRPI Overall

170.9

1.7%

SRPI Central (excluding small units)

169.8

1.5%

SRPI Non-Central (excluding small units)

175.0

1.8%

SRPI Small Units

163.9

-0.2%

(Reflective of transactions received as at 21 December 2011)

I don't recall seeing FH/999LH MM prices dropping during my "tour" of showflats recently. In fact the their psf are still climbing based on my observations at the showflats and recent launches in Propertyguru. The most active launches are those in Geylang and their psf is hitting $1300+ from 1200+ earlier this year. Most likely the drop is attributed to sales of MM in 99LH mass market condos.

teddybear

28-12-11, 15:37

An impossible "condo upgrade" dream? Might as well fence up every 10 blocks of HDB flats, give them a fancy name, and call them all with "CONDOMINIUM" as suffix - that is achievable. :p

Don't they understand that the problem is not with "condo" or not? The problem is with when a significant number now live in "condos" (e.g. >10%), many who can't afford better will now want to have more and when others have more, they also want to have even more to catch up, e.g. need to have tennis courts, beside golf courses, and then govt going to ensure they are able to Mercedes" since many others also drive? :doh:

Will not be surprising that after these people upgraded, they will the condo prices now to shoot up, the faster the better, although they are now calling for crash in order to make it affordable for them to buy. :doh:
However, another group will now cry father cry mother for prices to crash. :banghead:

CM5 is not really for "taking steam off hot money" lah.
It's more for political purpose. The gov wants to help Singaporeans to fulfill the "condo upgrade" dream.

amk

28-12-11, 15:40

I don't recall seeing FH/999LH MM prices dropping during my "tour" of showflats recently. In fact the their psf are still climbing based on my observations at the showflats and recent launches in Propertyguru.

The NUS index is for resale pties. What you mentioned, new launches and such, are not in the index.

hyenergix

28-12-11, 15:46

The NUS index is for resale pties. What you mentioned, new launches and such, are not in the index.

I see! Thanks.

devilplate

28-12-11, 16:44

ikan bilis

28-12-11, 16:54

(BizTimes, sgp)

Published December 28, 2011

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Developers, govt agree to disagree
Redas chief calls ABSD 'Another Bad Shock for Developers', minister says that it is necessary

By MINDY TAN AND FELDA CHAY

(SINGAPORE) That the government and developers disagree over the latest cooling measures was made plain at last night's Redas dinner, where deeply divergent views were publicly aired.

The Real Estate Developers Association of Singapore's 52nd anniversary dinner was the first public function for the industry since the government announced the cooling measures, including the Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) on Dec 7.

In the presence of Tan Chuan-Jin, Minister of State for National Development and Manpower, who was the guest-of-honour at last night's event, Redas president Wong Heang Fine called the ABSD an 'Another Bad Shock for Developers'.

In his speech, Mr Tan acknowledged that he did not expect developers to welcome the measures, but reiterated that the measures were implemented in the common interest for a stable and sustainable property market.

'Our small property market is attractive to foreign funds . . . (So) the latest measure is a targeted and measured move to moderate such investment demand in order to avoid the need for a major correction down the road,' he said.

Mr Wong, however, had a different take. Beyond the short-term concerns of property sales volume and prices falling, there are other longer-term concerns, he pointed out. Mr Wong is also the chief executive of CapitaLand's Singapore residential arm.

Not only could the government measures lead to a higher cost structure for developers due to higher land acquisition cost, they could potentially have a knock-on effect on mortgages resulting in a possible decline in home equity values and consequently, shrinking wealth, he said.

The measures may also risk hurting the already frail economy and dampening foreign investments and business prospects in Singapore.

'One analyst is even of the view that these harsh measures could tip the economy - already on the edge - into recession,' said Mr Wong, in a publication issued by Redas to celebrate its 52nd anniversary, Building an Outstanding Global City.

'With real estate activities accounting for some 5.2 per cent of GDP, a 25 per cent fall in property transactions in 2012 could shave GDP growth by about 1.3 per cent,' he warned.

In December, the government rolled out the ABSD to moderate investment demand for private residential property. Foreigners and companies buying any private residential property now pay an ABSD of 10 per cent of the purchase price or market value, whichever is higher.

A 3 per cent ABSD applies to permanent residents buying their second and subsequent homes, and Singaporeans buying their third and subsequent residential property.

Another point of contention was the government's lack of consultation with Redas and other industry players, before implementing the cooling measures.

'It is Redas's wish to continue to engage the government in close dialogues even on sensitive matters such as cooling measures before they are implemented,' said Mr Wong.

However, Mr Tan countered that while there are many areas of mutual interest in which the government would be 'happy to engage in closer dialogue', the government 'may not be able to consult Redas on every issue, especially those that are market-sensitive'.

'Importantly, it is not about common consensus, but about doing the right thing and implementing the right policy,' he said.

Further, Mr Tan said that the Ministry of National Development was prepared to release more land for the development of 5,000 executive condominiums (ECs) next year to help more higher-income Singaporeans own private housing.

This follows the government's move, in August this year, to raise the monthly income ceiling for the purchase of new ECs from $10,000 to $12,000. According to Mr Tan, around 220 households have since benefited from the higher income ceiling.

He reiterated that the government remains committed to helping first-time owners and newlyweds address their housing needs, and will begin to pay more attention to helping HDB second-timers next year.

Noting that it is still too early to comment on the impact of the measures on property prices, Mr Wong said that Redas will continue to assess the impact of the latest measures in consultation with industry players, before providing appropriate feedback.

Noting that the policy is 'short term' in nature, to address the influx of funds from foreign investors into the property market, Mr Wong said: 'Let the measures take its natural course, and then we'll look at it.'

ikan bilis

28-12-11, 17:00

(BizTimes, sgp) Published December 28, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
COMMENTARY
Danger of froth in strata industrial, office segment can be averted
Solution already lies in restrictions that come with government land sales

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

WITH the additional buyer's stamp duty expected to cool the private home market, many have predicted that monies will continue to flow to other property segments, most notably strata industrial, office and shop units.

Possibly aware that this could lead to a spiral of rising prices in this sector, the authorities have already started putting certain restrictions in place.

Some developers have found a cosy niche selling small strata industrial and office units to cater to demand from those looking to park their monies in a place that's been shielded from the government's cooling measures that have been targeted at the private residential sector.

Strata industrial and commercial units are attractive to property speculators and investors with deep pockets; Central Provident Fund savings can't be used to purchase non-residential properties. The appeal of investing in strata commercial and industrial units is strong given low interest rates and volatility in financial markets.

However, excessive investment demand has potential dangers. For one, it drives up prices of such properties and genuine industrialists and other businesses that need such space for their use may find their occupation costs going up, whether they buy such premises or rent them. Investors who have paid a high price for strata industrial units, for instance, will have a high rental expectation. Alternatively, if they plan to flip their units, an end-user in the market may find the price too expensive.

Competition for land from developers keen on building strata industrial or office projects too will drive up bids for such sites at Government Land Sales (GLS) tenders - the primary source for such land. When developers pay steep amounts for sites, they will naturally try to sell their units at a high price, fuelling a cycle that will translate to higher occupation costs for end-user businesses.
Developers of strata industrial projects or their marketing agents may also tout such properties to potential buyers for office use - even though such use is unauthorised.

Market watchers reckon the authorities are probably keeping a close eye on sales of strata industrial and office units to gauge whether unhealthy demand including speculation has set in. They could come up with measures to cool demand in this segment just as they've done for the residential sector.

However, an easier solution for the authorities could be to tackle the problem at source - when they sell land through the GLS Programme. To some extent, the government has already started doing this. For instance, an industrial site near Aljunied MRT Station on the reserve list of the current H2 2011 Industrial GLS Programme that was made available for application last month, comes with the condition that strata subdivision of the development on the site is not allowed in the first 10 years after the project is completed.

Strata restrictions

Even when strata units are allowed in the development after the 10-year period, the minimum floor plate size per strata unit is set at 150 square metres. 'Based on feedback from industrialists, the typical floor plate requirement for Business 1 activities is around this size. Hence a minimum floor plate of 150 sq m for the strata units will ensure that the proposed industrial development will continue to cater to the needs of Business 1 activities,' reads the Questions and Answers section for this site listed by Urban Redevelopment Authority, land sales agent for the plot.

Business 1 use typically covers clean and light industrial and warehouse use.

On the initial 10-year bar on strata subdivision, URA says: 'Having a single owner for the first 10 years after the development is completed will ensure better management of the industrial space and provides greater flexibility in the customisation of floor plate sizes and development layouts to meet the needs of industrial users.

'The condition is not imposed for the full duration of the lease (60 years for most industrial sites) to provide the owner some business flexibility to respond to future market conditions such as requests from some industrialists to own the space they are operating in.'

The location profile, tenure and zoning for the Aljunied plot, at the corner of Aljunied Road and Sims Drive, are similar to the earlier GLS sites on which the Oxley BizHub 1 and 2 projects - with strata industrial units for sale - are being developed. The two plots, in a prime industrial location at Ubi Road 1, are between Tai Seng and MacPherson MRT stations. All three plots are zoned Business 1 and have 60-year leasehold tenure.

Such attractive industrial locations near MRT stations and close to the city are more appealing to strata industrial investors. So perhaps the government has started imposing restrictions on strata subdivisions on projects on such sites. This makes sense. It remains to be seen whether such conditions will appear on more sites in the upcoming H1 2012 Industrial GLS Programme.

hyenergix

28-12-11, 17:02

Developers have been giving bad shocks to buyers for so many years :simmering: REDAS chief was very daring to blatantly fire at MOS during REDAS anniversary. Expect relations to sour further.

kane

28-12-11, 17:05

What an awkward dinner. Haha.

DC33_2008

28-12-11, 17:12

Just to tell KBW not to have further CMs.

DC33_2008

28-12-11, 17:14

Wonder which project has got 50% foreign investors.

kane

28-12-11, 17:14

And for KBW to tell them not to stretch the pricing at every new launch. Haha.

kane

28-12-11, 17:17

Wonder which project has got 50% foreign investors.
I'm gonna guess the Marq. To borrow the famous word our dear forum member basic would use frequently, only "morons" will buy at that price!

DC33_2008

28-12-11, 17:19

No fault of developer. Home buyers are not forced to buy but have a choice to decide. They can boycott. Developer is more worried about the outflow if cannot sell within 5 years.

phantom_opera

28-12-11, 17:57

Wonder which project has got 50% foreign investors.

Reported recently: Rivergate

kane

28-12-11, 18:10

Reported recently: Rivergate

Rivergate long sold out no? So no longer in the equation.

DaytonaSS

28-12-11, 18:25

I'm gonna guess the Marq. To borrow the famous word our dear forum member basic would use frequently, only "morons" will buy at that price!

cannot call them morons lah.... they are too rich liao. i refuse to believe a billionaire is a moron. i can only conclude, 20m more or less in their bank account makes no difference to them. Wanna collect the most expensive condo only. I passed by near christmas, they even have their own Christmas lighting on the ground floor......

kane

28-12-11, 23:12

heh, just being sarcastic, to pay that sort of premium, money must be no object in the first place.

ecimbew

28-12-11, 23:36

Happen to stumble upon some interesting info on the Pallete, ATT , etc

Do you believe in Feng Shui? Read on

http://knowyourlifestory.blogspot.com/p/case-studies-on-selecting-good-property.html

peterng8

29-12-11, 10:37

Happen to stumble upon some interesting info on the Pallete, ATT , etc

Do you believe in Feng Shui? Read on

http://knowyourlifestory.blogspot.com/p/case-studies-on-selecting-good-property.html

very interesting...thank you:D

minority

29-12-11, 10:56

teddybear

29-12-11, 11:51

Those that didn't engage him to see feng shui surely no good!!! :p

every project also say good... which 1 is not good?

ikan bilis

29-12-11, 18:21

(BizTimes, sgp)
Published December 29, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
How long will ABSD stay in the market?
Remark about 'short-term' step gets an airing

By MINDY TAN

(SINGAPORE) The president of the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore raised eyebrows on Tuesday by asserting that the latest cooling measures were likely to be short-term in nature.

Yesterday, many consultants and industry players agreed with Wong Heang Fine's assessment.

'After the measures have been implemented long enough for it to be efficient, the government would most likely review it, in accordance to market conditions, especially in 2012,' said Ong Kah Seng, director of R'ST Research.

The measures, which came into effect on Dec 8, include the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) of 10 per cent on foreigners' home purchases, and require developers to build and sell all units in their projects within five years, or pay a stamp duty of 10 per cent.

The measures were a 'targeted and measured move to moderate investment demand (from overseas) in order to avoid the need for a major correction down the road' said Tan Chuan-Jin, Minister of State for National Development and Manpower at the 52nd Redas anniversary dinner on Tuesday.

Lee Sze Teck, senior manager of research and consultancy at Dennis Wee Group, agreed with Mr Wong that the ABSD was likely to be a short-term strategy, but could be in place for a few years yet.

'Looking at how our government has implemented policies in the past, it is unlikely to be short term in the sense of a few months. We could be looking at a few years,' he said.

If the government intended for stamp duty to be a long-term measure, it would have adjusted the buyers stamp duty rate, instead of imposing an additional stamp duty, he added.

'This way, they have the liberty to suspend it, withdraw it, and do whatever changes they want.'

Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui, noted that the longevity of the measures would largely depend on foreign demand.

'Whether the ABSD is seen as a short or long-term measure depends on the trend of foreign buying,' said Mr Ong. 'If China and India continue to do well with more of their citizens investing overseas in the longer term, including Singapore, then this may not be seen as a short-term trend.'

'While policymakers could review and lift the ABSD if foreign demand slackens, they would still keep their eye on the ball and reintroduce the measures if foreign demand comes back strongly,' he added.

Knight Frank chairman, Tan Tiong Cheng said: 'There is expectation from buyers that residential prices will ease following the latest measures . . . With the amount of liquidity in the market, any fall of 10 per cent should attract buying again, which would help to stabilise the market.

'In that sense, a 30 per cent fall is less likely unless there is global recession, then the government would then step in to review all the measures.'

He concluded: 'I am sure the government will tweak it if it is not achieving the original objective of a stable, affordable property market.'

ikan bilis

29-12-11, 18:29

(BizTimes, sgp) Published December 29, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
US$ Sibors hit 52-week highs
Shrinking supply of US dollars and rising demand are pushing up interest rates

By EMILYN YAP

(SINGAPORE) Less supply and more demand for US dollars in the banking system here are showing up in fast rising benchmark interest rates.

The three-month US dollar Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (USD Sibor) was 0.57278 per cent yesterday, staying at a 52-week high.

It has more than doubled in a mere four months, from 0.257 per cent at the start of August.

The one-month, six-month and 12-month USD Sibors were also at or hovering near peaks in the year.

'Liquidity is not as abundant as before,' said UBS wealth management research chief investment strategist in Singapore, Kelvin Tay.

USD Sibors have climbed swiftly since August as fears of a banking crisis brewing in the eurozone grew.

Some market watchers point to the wave of deleveraging by European banks as a reason for the hike. As they trimmed lending in Asia to boost their capital positions back home, the pool of US dollars available here shrank, they said.

Reluctance among banks to lend to one another could also have increased as the eurozone debt crisis shows no signs of clearing, some observers suggested.

The distrust is especially evident in the eurozone, where banks reportedly parked a record 452 billion euros (S$765.6 billion) at the European Central Bank's (ECB) overnight facility on Tuesday, even though they would have earned higher interest rates lending the money to other banks.

This came just days after the ECB lent 489 billion euros to 523 banks in an attempt to pump liquidity into the system.

'Most European banks took the ECB longer-term refinancing operations to shore up their balance sheets and partly swapping into the US dollar rather than lending to the economy,' said Maybank economist Saktiandi Supaat.

A reduced supply of funds may not be the only reason for steeper USD Sibor rates. 'I think it reflects increased dollar demand in Singapore, largely due to an increase in US dollar borrowings by Chinese corporates facing tight liquidity conditions at home,' said Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho.

Rising USD Sibors mean that banks here face higher costs of US dollar funding, but few market observers are raising alarms. In fact, the climbing rates give banks a chance to raise the spreads on the loans that they extend.

'If rising USD Sibor sustains, we believe banks will start to push up lending yields,' said CIMB analyst Kenneth Ng in a report in September, written shortly after USD Sibors started climbing.

'After all, all three Singapore banks did enjoy some of their best lending spreads during Q4 2008-2009, when foreign banks became risk-averse and cut their lending activities.'

OCBC economist Selena Ling also said that rising USD Sibors 'should be seen more as a normalisation from record low rates'. The 3-month USD Sibor for instance, remains much lower today than in 2008, when it peaked at over 4.79 per cent.

US dollar funding in Singapore is unlikely to dry out, Mr Saktiandi said. 'Central banks in the region already have the capability to ensure that US dollar liquidity is there, via existing US dollar swap lines (for instance),' he said.

ikan bilis

29-12-11, 18:48

analysts really can talk a lot,.. based on some NUS-SRPI number,.. of which old resale MMs do not have significant number of units built... :beats-me-man:

(BizTimes, sgp) Published December 29, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Shoebox apartment prices continue dipping in Nov
Buyers may have pulled back since August due to volatile climate

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) The prices of shoebox apartments and their prospects are back in the limelight.

Flash estimates from NUS's Institute of Real Estate Studies show that prices of completed small apartments peaked in August and have since fallen 3 per cent to November. In November alone, the dip was 0.2 per cent month on month.

Meanwhile, prices of larger apartments in both the Central and Non-Central regions continued to climb last month.

Since last year, the price increase for small apartments islandwide has been slower than for larger apartments in the Non-Central region (where mass-market condos are located) but faster than for larger apartments in the Central Region.

Yesterday's flash estimates for the Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) show that the sub-index for small apartments islandwide (up to 506 sq ft or 47 sq metres) fell 0.2 per cent month on month in November. The index has fallen 3 per cent since peaking in August.

Month on month, the SRPI for Non-Central Region (excluding small apartments) rose 1.8 per cent while the sub-index for Central region (also excluding small units) climbed 1.5 per cent in November. The Overall SRPI rose 1.7 per cent month on month in November, an improvement from the one per cent (revised) month-on-month rise in October.

The Central Region comprises Districts 1-4 (which includes the financial district and Sentosa Cove) as well as the traditional prime residential districts of 9-11.

SRPI tracks prices of completed private apartments and condos, excluding executive condos.

Year to date (November 2011 against December 2010), the strongest price performance of 13.4 per cent has been posted by the sub-index for the Non-Central region. This towers above the increase of 8.7 per cent for small apartments and the 6.1 per cent gain for Central region.

Year on year too, the Non-Central region has been the star performer with a 15.3 per cent price hike, followed by an 11.5 per cent price appreciation for small units and 7.3 per cent rise in Central region.

DTZ Southeast Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah reckons that many buying small apartments may be investors on relatively lower budgets who may have pulled back since August given the volatile investment climate.

Looking ahead, she said that small apartments may be an underperformer. 'As more of these units are completed, those who can't hold may be under pressure to sell. So far, rents of small apartments have held well, but competition for tenants may intensify when more such stock is completed.'

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng added: 'Small apartments are more likely to be bought for investment and at the end of the day, this market will be driven by rental income.'

While small units command a substantial percentage premium in per square foot pricing over larger units, a tenant may not be prepared to pay quite the same percentage premium in rent. However, Mr Tan added that investors on a limited budget will still look at a price price point of view. 'If my budget is only $600,000, I may still buy a shoebox unit even if the rental yield (in future) is lower, say about 3.2 per cent, compared with say 3.5 per cent for a bigger apartment which is beyond my price budget.'

Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui cautioned that while the 0.2 per cent month-on-month price dip in SRPI for small apartments seems to suggest weakening in this market segment, 'we must bear in mind that the bulk of transactions of small units are in the new sales market'.

NUS's SRPI basket of properties, on the other hand, covers only completed projects.

Credo's analysis of URA Realis caveats data shows that year to date, 84 per cent of the 2,383 caveats lodged for small apartments (up to 47 sq m) were new sales (by developers).

While total transactions for non-landed private homes (excluding ECs) declined from 24,697 in the first nine months of 2010 to 21,097 in the same period this year, those for small apartments rose from 1,591 to 2,107.

Buyers with HDB addresses make up about 40 per cent of purchasers of non-landed private homes (excluding ECs) this year, but they account for a much higher 56 per cent share of small unit transactions. Small units may offer a more affordable avenue for such buyers, said Mr Ong.

Douk

29-12-11, 21:54

every project also say good... which 1 is not good?
No good? Later sue by developer.

ikan bilis

30-12-11, 04:27

(BizTimes, sgp) Published December 30, 2011

Govt acts to rein in industrial space prices
New regime will benefit genuine end-users and take away speculative fizz

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Those hoping to make a quick buck by investing in small strata industrial units are in for a reality check.

The government has taken steps to make industrial land affordable for genuine industrialists. The move may also stop froth from spilling over to industrial property from the recently-cooled residential sector.

It will rein in investors who have been making industrial space too costly for genuine end-users.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry is stepping up land supply for the Industrial Government Land Sales Programme for the first half of 2012 to a total of nearly 24 hectares (through both confirmed and reserve lists) - up from 16 hectares in the current H2 2011 slate.

And for industrialists seeking to build their own customised premises at affordable prices, MTI is offering 18 smallish sites located off Tuas South Avenue 12 on 19-year tenure - shorter than the typical 30 and 60-year tenure for industrial plots on the GLS Programme.

More controls will ensure that strata industrial developments are built to industrial property specifications - and not snapped up by investors looking for small units. The conditions will apply for GLS parcels from Jan 1, 2012.

For selected sites near MRT stations, for example, strata subdivision of an industrial development will not be allowed for the first 10 years after the project is completed. For strata sub-divisions after that period, developers must adopt a minimum strata unit size of 150 square metres gross floor area (GFA). The thinking is that genuine industrialists will require units of at least this size, while smaller units might be snapped up by investors or touted for unauthorised office use.

This condition was already stipulated for a reserve-list plot near Aljunied MRT Station in the current H2 2011 slate when it was made available for application last month.

This plot will now be transferred to the confirmed list of the H1 2012 GLS slate. Three new plots will also fulfil the same condition. Two sites are near Tai Seng MRT Station (one each in the confirmed and reserve lists) while the third is a confirmed list plot at Bukit Batok St 23.

The minimum 150 sq m strata unit size shall also apply to multiple-user industrial developments on sites that don't have the initial 10-year bar on strata subdivision. Even if the developer holds the project for rental income, units cannot be under 150 sq m, so long as it's a multiple-user industrial project.

MTI's spokesman said: 'We have assessed that 150 sq m is the minimum working space that true industrialists require.'

Meanwhile, all multi-storey industrial developments will have to meet minimum requirements for goods lifts and loading bays.

Units in the industrial GLS project will also have to comply with minimum technical specs for an industrial project with regard to floor loading, floor-to-ceiling height and electrical provision. Industrial market watchers told BT that some recent strata industrial projects do not comply with such standard industrial specs. In at least one instance, a strata industrial project does not have a single cargo lift.

Marketing agents often tout strata industrial units to potential buyers for office use - even though such use is unauthorised. This has drawn investors to the strata industrial market and pushed up prices.

Many strata industrial projects on the market now have units mostly of 90-100 sq m. 'This is too small for industrial use. In the past few months, investors have found 100 sq m industrial units a good alternative (to residential investment) as the lump sum is affordable. So raising the minimum size for strata industrial units to 150 sq m will help take away this pool of investors, who are pushing up prices,' said Lim Kien Kim, senior director (industrial) at Knight Frank.

Said MTI's spokesman: 'All the conditions are to better meet the industrialists' requirements and will benefit genuine end-user industrialists looking for premises, whether to rent or to buy.'

MTI's H1 2012 confirmed list will have 16 sites. Besides the eight Tuas plots on short tenure and below one hectare each, the other confirmed list sites are located in Mandai Link (2.2 ha), Tampines Industrial Crescent (3.88 ha), Bukit Batok St 23 (1.5 ha), Serangoon North Ave 4 (0.8 ha), Aljunied Rd, Tai Seng Link, Kaki Bukit Rd 5/Ave 6, and Yishun Ave 9.

Welcoming MTI's announcement, Mr Lim said: 'I've heard enough cries from real users of industrial space that rents and prices have gone up to such a ridiculously high level that they find it difficult to do business here.

'Especially in the past 12 months, the industrial property market has become more speculative, like residential.'

ikan bilis

30-12-11, 04:33

(BizTimes, sgp) Published December 30, 2011

Increase in industrial land supply expected to soften prices, rents
MTI also announces new conditions on strata subdivision of projects on GLS sites

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

THE planned increase in land supply under the Industrial Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme in H1 2012 will help soften industrial property prices and rents to a level within reach of genuine end users, say some property consultants.

Another change announced by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) yesterday that will be a boon to industrialists who have been priced out of the market will be the new conditions on strata subdivision of projects on sites sold through the MTI's Industrial GLS Programme from next year. This will put a lid on the proliferation of small industrial units that have been chased by property speculators and investors, driving up industrial property values in the process. Developers of such projects have also, in turn, pushed up the price of industrial land at state tenders.

Developers who have been building strata industrial projects will now take a step back and see what's happening, said Knight Frank senior director (industrial) Lim Kien Kim.

This is likely to tame tender prices for industrial land in the GLS Programme which, as DTZ South-east Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah noted, have roughly doubled generally in the past year.

Another big plus for industrialists will be the 18 small plots located in the Tuas View Extension that are being offered on short tenure of 19 years. The plots are small (mostly up to a hectare each) and have a 1.0 plot ratio (ratio of maximum gross floor area to land area), which suggests that they will be turned into landed factories.

The short tenure is likely to push developers out of tenders for such sites as it may be difficult for them to develop factories on such sites and sell them for a profit. For one thing, it will not be easy for buyers to get a loan on such short-tenure property. 'This will mean less competition from developers bidding for sites and give end users a chance to build their own premises at a reasonable (cost),' said Mr Lim.

SLP International managing director Peter Ow noted: 'Such small sites of less than a hectare are not easy for industrialists to find and develop on their own.'

Giving his take, Colliers International director (industrial) Tan Boon Leong said: 'MTI's announcement is clearly aimed at providing more avenues for genuine industrial end-users to participate in the market.'

Mrs Ong noted that there has been concern that the recently introduced additional buyer's stamp duty on residential property purchases may divert investment interest to non-residential assets such as industrial. 'Introduction of the conditions on sale and minimum strata size are probably a pre-emptive (measure).'

The conditions will likely lead to a 'better reflection of industrial land prices, and ensure that there is sufficient supply to meet the needs of our industrialists, be they SMEs (looking to rent or purchase) or MNCs', she added.

hyenergix

30-12-11, 05:27

19 years is very short. Development would be consumed about 1 year. Considering land cost + development cost, maybe it is cheaper and has lesser risk to rent.

kane

30-12-11, 08:18

They're tackling industrial space as one. Maybe this space will see its CM1 some time in the near future.

ikan bilis

30-12-11, 12:14

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC111230-0000024/MRT-stations-and-property-prices

MRT stations and property prices

by Ku Swee Yong
04:46 AM Dec 30, 2011

As more and more MRT stations are built in Singapore, there has been much discussion over whether the presence of an MRT station will boost the prices of residential units nearby.

Let's use the recently completed Circle Line for discussion. According to one school of thought, when the Circle Line and the locations of its stations were first announced in the early 2000s, prices of developments within walking distance to the stations started to pick up. Very quickly, advertisements for developers' new launches and classified ads placed by real estate agents highlighted the benefits of the future MRT stations: Accessibility and travel convenience, resulting in increased demand from both owner-occupiers and tenants, leading to improved rentals and higher transacted prices.

Some investors believe in entering the market early because with the view that when the MRT stations are completed and the line starts running, the market for residential properties nearby would have already "priced in" the premium of the convenience. There is also a view that in the very long term, most Singaporeans will be living within 500m from an MRT station and any "price premium" arising from such proximity will disappear.

It seems that we still lack solid data to substantiate and quantify the effects. But I think it is correct to say that there is an initial euphoria as sellers of properties around the named stations will immediately raise their prices.

CONSTRUCTION INCONVENIENCE

However, what follows after is about five to seven years of construction work for the MRT lines and the stations. During this period, there will be traffic diversions and residents in the vicinity are inconvenienced by the noise, dust and poor traffic conditions.

Based on our observations from serving investors and tenants, expatriates and locals looking for units to rent or buy typically shun condominiums where there is construction nearby. This is especially true for condominiums that suffer limited access due to the construction works for the MRT line and the stations.

For example, residents of LevelZ, Spanish Village and Gallop Gables at Farrer Road were inconvenienced during the construction of the Circle Line's Farrer Road Station, when there was reduced access to their main entrances. Farrer Road itself had many changes and diversions, with new twists and turns appearing every few months or so. Residents had to bear with dust, noise and the occasional movement of heavy construction equipment. The result: Lower occupancy rates and longer periods of vacancies between tenants, which led to weaker rentals and, in many cases, lower-than-market transaction prices.

As completion nears and the streetscape is brought back to normal, with roads straightened and potholes patched up, prospective tenants are more willing to consider renting these properties in the knowledge that the MRT line will begin operating soon. Once the station is open, tenants are willing to pay a bit more and may also make quicker decisions on signing the tenancy agreements. Therefore rentals rise and as yields in Singapore remain within 3 per cent per annum, the prices of the condominiums will grow with the rental growth.

It is difficult, almost impossible, to use a standard yardstick to measure the opportunity costs or the relative underperformance of property values affected by MRT construction. Some cases can be pretty obvious as evidenced by the retail outlets around Chun Tin Road and Beauty World Centre. Due to a reduction in parking lots and traffic congestion, patronage of the food outlets is reduced and, therefore, rentals drop.

In the case of residential properties, things are less obvious. Rental data is not rich for comparison and over the five-to-seven-year period, rentals and sale prices may go up or down depending on the overall external economy, en bloc exercises and new launches, etc.

However, we do have snippets of data that can support our empirical observations. From the chart, we can compare the median rental prices for residential properties around Lorong Chuan and Farrer Road MRT Stations over the last three years.

We see that from May to Sept 2009, when Lorong Chuan MRT Station began operating, median rentals climbed 55 per cent from S$1.97 per sq ft per month to S$3.06 psf per month. Over the same period, median rentals along Farrer Road rose about 30 per cent from a three-month average of S$3.01 psf per month (Note: I have used the average of April to June 2009 because of the spike in May) to S$3.91 psf per month in Sept 2011. In fact, during the period in May to Dec 2009, when rentals around Lorong Chuan station were creeping up steadily, the average rentals along Farrer Road were flattish, due to the fact that Farrer Road was still in a mess as far as the traffic flow and the MRT construction were concerned.

WHAT TO INVEST IN AND WHEN?

I would summarise it as such: Prices of residential properties rise due to exuberant expectations when the locations of the MRT stations are announced, subsequently underperform the rest of the market during the construction period, and then trend up again when the work is completed.

So, buy at the correct time: When the MRT stations are about to be completed, not when the stations are announced and certainly not when the construction is at its peak.

In a previous commentary in Today, I had recommended that investors avoid Upper Bukit Timah, Thomson and Upper Thomson, especially the latter locations as two major infrastructure projects will be built at the same time - the North South Expressway and the Thomson MRT line - choking north-south traffic until 2020.

With Circle Line's Stages 4 and 5 - from Marymount to Harbourfront - running since October and cutting travelling times to Holland Village, Buona Vista, Science Park, NUS, etc, where the working population and student population are high, I am optimistic that the residential markets will begin to show rental and price growth.

Furthermore, I believe that price growth will not be limited to the two new stages. Stage 3 of the Circle Line (Bartley to Marymount) began operations in May 2009, while Stages 1 and 2 (Dhoby Ghaut to Bartley) commenced services last April. Looking at the potential of the residential segments across these stations, I believe there are several locations that are particularly promising:

1) At Bartley MRT Station, where works on the Bartley viaduct and the Paya Lebar underpass had inconvenienced traffic for several years, watch out for a new condominium launching soon between Lorong How Sun and Bartley Road. This residential precinct has been neglected by investors for a while due to the lack of new projects and the traffic situation. Now that traffic has improved and the environment is nice and neat like it used to be over 10 years ago, property values can begin to rise with the convenience of the expressways and the Circle Line.

2) Lorong Chuan MRT Station is surrounded by a cluster of private condominiums. Several international schools and major shopping malls are within a five-to-10 minute drive. In the past, a resident here would take 30 minutes to an hour to commute by public transport to Alexandra, Pasir Panjang or NUS. Today it takes 20 to 40 minutes. The 10-year-old condominiums there are priced at S$800 to S$1,100psf, with rental yields of 3.5 per cent per annum and higher.

3) Pasir Panjang MRT Station, where freehold condominiums are trading around S$1,000psf. I would consider them undervalued relative to mass market locations at the same price level, given that these condominiums are within a five-to-10 minute drive to the financial district and both the integrated resorts.

Ku Swee Yong is the founder of real estate agency International Property Advisor, specialising in property services for high-net-worth clients. He is the author of Real Estate Riches: Understanding Singapore's Property Market in a Volatile Economy.

DC33_2008

30-12-11, 14:06

Thomson and Upper Thomson are not so good area in the next 10 years?

ikan bilis

01-01-12, 12:02

http://orientaldaily.on.cc/cnt/finance/20111231/00202_005.html

(东方日报)港府出招樓市仍升9.4%

雖然今年本港樓市面對政府種種掣肘，近月市況明顯回落，但綜觀全年樓價仍有不俗升幅，一份反映樓價走勢的指數顯示，該指數最新報96.68點，雖較年中高位回落約4%，但相比去年底仍上升約9.4%。另環球經濟不穩，本港樓市升勢亦跑贏世界各地，早前亦有報告指出，截至第三季本港樓價按年升約19.3%，冠絕全球。

本港樓市面對政府種種掣肘下仍有不俗升勢，中原表示，截至本月二十五日，中原城市領先指數報96.68點（反映本月五至十一日市況），按周下跌約1%，相比今年六月初高位100.72點，亦回落約4%。不過，綜觀全年走勢，仍較去年底錄得的88.4點顯著上升約9.4%。

新界西最凌厲

若以地區劃分，今年四個主要地區樓價以新界西升勢最強，該區樓價指數最新報76.35點，較去年底升約12%，其次九龍區亦升約11.1%至95.52點，新界東及港島區樓價指數今年亦錄約10.6%及8.1%增長。

本港樓市今年走勢一枝獨秀，據萊坊早前公布的全球住宅樓價指數顯示，香港第三季樓價按年錄約19.3%升幅，升幅為統計範圍內的51個國家及城市之首。

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/Finance/20111231/News/eb_ebd1.htm

炒家轉戰工商舖今年屢創天價

2011年12月31日【明報專訊】政府限制住宅摩貨 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_News2KW(45);)(未完成交易已轉手)，令一眾炒家轉投工商舖物業市場。業界預期，2011年商廈摩貨宗數及金額將錄約290宗及40.8億元，分別較2010年高48.7%及53.7%。炒風熾熱令2011年商舖物業同錄不少天價成交(見表)。但受到外圍市拖累，無論工、商、舖物業，均呈現先升後回情，下半年成交量及金額均較上半年急挫。

土地註冊處資料顯示，本年截至12月15日，商廈註冊量錄得2930宗，涉及394.77億元為97年後新高。美聯商業營業董事周永亨估計，截至12月底，註冊量可達3000宗，較2010年下調約8.8%；而註冊金額則錄得410億元，較09年上升約9.2%。金額得以跑贏買賣量，主要是因為年內不乏大額成交。

皇后大道中九號全層錄商廈最高呎價

要數今年最矚目的商廈成交，定是今年初「四叔」李兆基等人以3.78億元沽出皇后大道中九號20樓全層，物業面積13,742方呎，平均呎價27,507元，至今仍是全港最高呎價商廈。但周永亨指出，踏入下半年，整體樓市氣氛受影響，加上累積多月升幅後，投資者需時消化，令寫字樓買賣成交放緩，下半年註冊量較上半年下跌45.3%；而金額同樣錄得45.9%跌幅。

舖位方面，中原(工商舖)商舖部董事黃偉基表示，截止12月22日，2011年全年暫錄得4857宗買賣註冊，金額約529.99億元，反映投資者入市積極度的摩貨統計，2011年下半年暫錄得122宗，涉及14.51億元，宗數及金額均較2011年上半年顯著回落，幅度更分別達37%及46%。

不過，由於零售市道持續向好，商場、商舖今年市場上亦有多宗超級成交，當中7月份，太古 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0019) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()以188億元的天價，把旗下九龍塘又一城商場出售予新加坡主權基金 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_club(4);)豐樹產業，涉及樓面超過120萬方呎，創本港歷年最大宗物業買賣。而於1月份，英皇國際 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0163) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()就以3.8億元購入銅鑼灣波斯富街76號地舖，成交呎價高達63.33萬元，成為歷年呎價最高的舖位。

Komo

01-01-12, 17:37

Thomson and Upper Thomson are not so good area in the next 10 years?

i expect prices will shoot up instead:D

ikan bilis

02-01-12, 20:26

http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC120102-0000002/Could-DBSS-make-way-for-executive-condos?

Could DBSS make way for executive condos?
by Esther Ng (http://forums.condosingapore.com/)

04:46 AM Jan 02, 2012

SINGAPORE - With the Government ready to supply more land sites for executive condominiums (EC) this year, property analysts feel the ramp-up could stabilise prices in the mass private property market and possibly spell the end of the Design, Build and Sell Scheme flats.

It took 16 years since ECs were introduced in 1995 to amass 14,600 apartments, and though some 3,000 units are coming on stream, 5,000 units could be launched this year - a move announced by Minister of State for National Development Tan Chuan Jin last week.

Property analysts attribute the ramp-up to the Government's drive to meet the aspirations of those who cannot afford private property.

"ECs become popular when private property prices increase and are approaching their peak," said Chesterton Suntec International's head of research and consultancy Colin Tan.

Concurring, PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail said: "Mass market property prices have gone up a fair bit and are beyond reach for some, but the income ceiling for ECs has increased, allowing more to qualify, so therefore more ECs have to be built to cater to this demand."

In part, the large-scale injection is National Development Minister Khaw Boon Way's way of tackling the housing problem, said Mr Tan.

"He has read the situation of Build to Order (BTO) flats correctly and ramped up supply, now he's tackling the aspirations of first-time private property home buyers and Housing and Development Board upgraders," he said.

Mr Ismail felt that the availability of more EC units will "put pressure" on developers to be "price sensitive" when bidding on land for the mass market.

"ECs compete with the mass market, so the launch of these many units will stabilise mass market pricing," he said. "2011 was an all-time record launch of Build to Order flats, so 2012 will be an all-time record launch of ECs."

For SLP International's research head Nicholas Mak, the "flood" of EC units could herald the "demise" of Design Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) flats, as the latter "has an in-built mechanism to inflate prices". "A developer bids high in a property boom and has to sell the units at an even higher price," he explained. "This pushes up resale HDB flat prices and this is not in line with the government policy of today, which is to provide affordable homes."

Mr Ismail, too, noted the "high cost and selling price" being passed to the consumer, and felt that the DBSS should be scrapped. "The argument for DBSS, that private developers can come up better designs, does not hold up any more. HDB is capable of building high-end BTO flats - the Pinnacle is an example," he said.

Moreover, ECs become semi-private after five years and fully private after 10, while DBSS remain "essentially HDB", Mr Mak pointed out.

He noted that while the income ceiling of BTOs and ECs had risen, the ceiling for DBSS had not, another indication that the product was likely to be phased out.

But Mr Tan did not think the step-up of EC units meant the end of DBSS. "The objective of introducing DBSS was to give variety in public housing … The Government has to decide whether it is an objective worth pursuing and if so what needs tweaking," he said. Sale of land for DBSS projects was put on hold last July while the Government carries out a review.

As for prices of DBSS flats almost on par with EC units - a five-bedroom DBSS unit at Centrale 8 in Tampines was revised to S$778,000 while a similar-sized EC unit, The Arc at Tampines, was transacted for S$747,000 - Mr Tan pointed out that DBSS flats were closer to the town centre.

"The premium depends on the location," he said.

However, Mr Mak noted that some ECs, especially the older ones like Simei Green, Nuovo in Ang Mo Kio and Yumei Green in Chua Chu Kang, were located near MRT stations. "These older ECs were a lot bigger - 1,400 to 1,500 sq feet - compared to newer units now," he said.

ikan bilis

03-01-12, 10:10

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20120103-319565.html

Tuesday, Jan 03, 2012
AsiaOne

Price increase for private homes, resale flats moderate in Q4 2011

The rate of increase of prices for both private homes and HDB resale flats have seen a moderation from the third quarter, according to flash estimates released today by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and the Housing & Development Board (HDB).

HDB's flash estimate of the 4th Quarter 2011 Resale Price Index (RPI) is 190.4, an increase of 1.7 per cent over 3rd Quarter 2011. The increase is lower than the 3.8 per cent seen in the previous quarter. The RPI provides information on the general price movements in the public residential market.

Meanwhile, URA's flash estimate of the private residential property index for 4th Quarter 2011 shows that the rate of increase in private residential property prices has continued to moderate for the 9th consecutive quarter since 4th Quarter 2009.

The private residential property index rose from 205.7 points in 3rd Quarter 2011 to 206.2 points in 4th Quarter 2011. This represents an increase of 0.2 per cent, compared to the 1.3 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 0.5 per cent in Core Central Region and by 0.6 per cent in Outside Central Region in the quarter. There was no change in the prices in Rest of Central Region. In comparison, in 3rd Quarter 2011, prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 0.7 per cent in Core Central Region, 1.2 per cent in Rest of Central Region and 2.1 per cent in Outside Central Region.

The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold by developers. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 4th Quarter 2011 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured.

The RPI for the full quarter and more detailed public housing data for 4th Quarter 2011 will be released on Jan 27.

[email protected]

ikan bilis

03-01-12, 11:57

if you hold a hdb from beginning of 2007 (index at 105) to End 2011 (index at 190), the price is about doubled .... add another extra $100-200K if BTO...

wah-lah... like better investment than pte condo... :scared-3:

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10321p.nsf/w/BuyResaleFlatResaleIndex?OpenDocument

and for now, may be better go cheong ExecCondos (if eligible) ??... ;)

ikan bilis

03-01-12, 12:00

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2012/1/32010/feo-starts-year-with-overwhelming-demand-for-secon

FEO starts year with overwhelming demand for second SOHO project

Jan 3, 2012 - PropertyGuru.com.sg

Far East Organization (FEO) has received a strong take-up rate for its second SOHO development, The Hillier, which was launched on 1 January 2012.

As of today, around 225 of the 333 one- and two-bedroom SOHO units released at the project have been sold at an average of S$1,175 psf, with most of the buyers being Singaporeans and permanent residents (PRs).

Located along Hillview Avenue, The Hillier comprises 528 SOHO residences atop HillV2, a trendy two-storey retail and lifestyle mall.

“The Hillier brings to life the Far East SOHO vision, this time upping the excitement by incorporating a new retail and lifestyle component. The Far East SOHO community at The Hillier will be able to create their own live-work-play spaces with upscale amenities,” said Mr Chia Boon Kuah, Chief Operating Office of Property Sales at FEO.

“In addition, the HillV2 provides added vibrancy and a lifestyle node for like‐minded individuals to interact.”

He noted that the strong demand for the project “underscores the market’s confidence for the Far East SOHO concept and reaffirms its value proposition.”

“It is a testimony on how the product resonates with today’s home buyers and investors.”

“It is comfortably situated in an exclusive spacious and green enclave, and yet remains connected to the city within easy reach through a multitude of transport options. More than half of The Hillier buyers to date are existing residents of this area who continue to appreciate its connectivity and locale,” added Chia.

Meanwhile, the 55,500 sq ft HillV2, which will be integrated with The Hillier, will complement well‐established amenities such as Junction 10, West Mall and The Rail Mall.

When completed in end 2013, HillV2 will cater to the needs of the Hillview community with its own mix of service, retail and F&B providers, making its mark in this exciting revitalization of the Hillview area.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

=> we need CM6 lah.... :rolleyes:

ikan bilis

04-01-12, 13:11

風雲變幻2012 投資首選店舖

2012年1月4日

蔡志忠
亞洲地產董事總經理
香港專業地產顧問商會副會長
香港東區工商業聯會常務副會長

　　送走了喧鬧爭吵的2011年，迎來了風起雲湧的2012年。未來的香港充滿挑戰，歐美經濟不穩，勢將拖累本港，而中央領導接班換屆、港府改朝換代和立法會選舉等，今年將會是風雲變幻的一年！

　　去年的香港在爭拗不斷中結束，正如港澳辦主任王光亞所指，房屋問題已演化成政治問題，政府屈服於少數反對地產霸權的抗議聲音，連續推出多項遏抑樓市措施，招式之多連地產界人士也記不清，而最刻骨銘心的、也是最令樓市致命的一招，當然就是「額外印花稅」。

　　「額外印花稅」的推出，踫上歐債危機的來臨，使去年香港樓市先甜後苦。在通脹急升加風四起的環境下，上半年小業主慶幸手持物業得以保值，好彩懂得投資「磚頭」以免銀紙縮水，可下半年樓市卻出現極大變化，種種不利因素使物業成交跌至低於「沙士」期間，樓價亦由上升軌道急轉向下，新樓市場發展商銷售策略奇招出百，勉強還可保持原有優勢，可憐那些無助的二手小業主，如要急於套現賣樓談何容易，即使僥倖賣得出，也要大幅減價才行。從報章雜誌報導，不難看到近期轉售的物業買賣中，出現不少虧損的成交個案。

舖位受惠自由行價租齊升

　　踏入2012年，面對這樣一個不穩定的政治和經濟環境，香港樓市可說是內憂外患，幾乎沒有人看好2012年，專家評論均指住宅樓價將會下跌10%至15%，買賣成交量亦將跌至近年新低。從事地產方面的人士和眾多小業主們，必須認清目前樓市形勢，盡早作出適當部署，以免招致不必要的損失。

　　樓價下跌或許未必是人所共識，然而通脹急增卻是眾所週知。新年伊始，電費、舖租、物價等馬上要加，物品消費繼續上漲，令普羅市民最感頭痛。加上環球經濟不景，歐美量化寛鬆政策勢在必行，港元將進一步貶值，面對如此境況，港人處於劣勢之中，買樓投資怕價格下跌，購買股票、債券或外幣又怕風險高，總不能白白看著銀紙一直在縮水，那麼應該如何是好？

　　筆者認為還是應該投資在物業上，當然不是住宅市場，而是要投資在沒有受「額外印花稅」影響的工商舖市場。其中尤以店舖為首選，經濟前景不明朗，工業樓和寫字樓租金有下調趨勢，相反在自由行高消費的帶動下，商舖租金卻進一步上升，舖位價格也隨之上揚，因此投資店舖自然就勝算較高。

　　香港是一塊福地，對比世界各地經歷戰爭、海嘯和水災等，我們應學懂珍惜，活在當下。喜見報導指港人「幸福指數」有所回升，在此祝各位讀者新年進步，投資有道！

ikan bilis

04-01-12, 16:55

(BizTimes, sgp) Published January 4, 2012

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Home prices sputter, poised to fall this year
Anaemic Q4 growth hints at falling prices of private homes, HDB resale flats

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Prices of both private homes as well as HDB resale flats are poised to fall this year. This was foreshadowed in the official flash estimates for the fourth quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in growth for both segments.

Urban Redevelopment Authority's private residential property price index rose a mere 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2011, its most anaemic growth in 10 quarters since the index bottomed out in Q2 2009.

From the 15.8 per cent q-on-q increase in Q3 2009, the index has now moderated for nine consecutive quarters, according to CBRE's analysis. The 0.2 per cent q-on-q hike in Q4 was lower than the 1.3 per cent q-on-q rise for Q3 last year. For the whole of 2011, the index rose 5.9 per cent - a marked slowdown from the 17.6 per cent jump in 2010.

Most market watchers say it is a given that prices will go down this year, amid the weaker economic outlook and poorer sentiment, especially after the introduction of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) last month.

'Developers know they need to cut prices but the difficulty is in gauging how much. If they don't cut enough, buyers are not going to act. But if they give too much, there's always a fear that buyers will expect a bit more. What you want to do is to give enough for the fence sitters to come back into the market. Despite the weaker economic outlook, there's still a lot of cash and liquidity in the market,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

DTZ's head of Asia Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon predicts a 10-15 per cent drop in URA's overall private home price index in 2012 citing the ABSD which took effect on Dec 8 and the economic slowdown. The luxury housing segment, where there are more foreign buyers, is expected to take the biggest hit given the top ABSD rate of 10 per cent levied on their residential property purchases.

CRBE executive director Li Hiaw Ho expects overall demand for new private homes to be trimmed by 15-20 per cent this year.

'Prices of luxury/prime condos may fall by 10-15 per cent in 2012, and mass-market condos, by 5-10 per cent,' he added.

URA's flash estimates show that the price index for non-landed private homes in Outside Central Region (OCR) - where mass-market condo projects are located - was the star performer, though it has also dimmed somewhat. It rose 0.6 per cent q-on-q in Q4 last year, a slower rise than the 2.1 per cent increase in Q3 2011. The full-year 2011 increase of 7.7 per cent was also slower than the 15 per cent climb in 2010.

Prices of non-landed private homes in OCR increased the fastest as demand was supported by HDB upgraders as well as investors, notes DTZ's Ms Chua.

Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui notes: 'The strong run in the OCR market has led to their current (Q4 2011) prices being 28.3 per cent above their pre global financial crisis peak in 2008, while prices in Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) are only 6 per cent and 15.9 per cent higher than their respective 2008 peaks.'

The price index for non-landed homes in CCR - which includes the traditional prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove - appreciated 0.5 per cent q-on-q in Q4, following a 0.7 per cent gain in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 4 per cent, significantly lower than the 14.2 per cent rise in 2010. The index for RCR for Q4 was unchanged from the preceding quarter, taking the full-year appreciation to 4.4 per cent, after rising 17.6 per cent in 2010.

In the public housing segment, HDB's resale flat price index rose just 1.7 per cent q-on-q in Q4, after rising 3.8 per cent in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 10.7 per cent, slower than 2010's 14.1 per cent climb.

The ramp-up in supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats launched by HDB last year as well as the increase in buyers' monthly household income ceiling from $8,000 to $10,000 has led to more first-time home buyers switching to BTO flats from the resale market, say agents.

ERA's key executive officer Eugene Lim says that cash over valuations (COVs) stabilised at around $30,000-40,000 in Q4, based on transactions handled by ERA. 'Going by what happened in the last recession, flats were sold at or below valuation. If Singapore enters a recession this year, COVs may also turn negative and hence transacted prices also fall.' He predicts HDB's resale flat price index may ease 5-8 per cent for the whole of 2012 in such a scenario.

The drop will be more severe if the HDB proceeds to allot a higher proportion of new Build-To-Order (BTO) flats to second timer buyers, as this leads to further diversion of demand from the HDB resale market.

However, if Singapore escapes recession, the HDB resale flat price index should still increase by up to 5 per cent this year, even if the government sets aside more new flats to second timers, he added.

PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail forecasts a correction of up to 3 per cent in the index. Dennis Wee Group senior manager Lee Sze Teck reckons it could ease up to 5 per cent.

HDB will launch 3,890 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines this month.

teddybear

04-01-12, 16:59

See, CM5 sure cause property prices to fall! We should just go to poll after property prices crash >20% and see how many people support their property crashing policy! :p

(BizTimes, sgp) Published January 4, 2012

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Home prices sputter, poised to fall this year
Anaemic Q4 growth hints at falling prices of private homes, HDB resale flats

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Prices of both private homes as well as HDB resale flats are poised to fall this year. This was foreshadowed in the official flash estimates for the fourth quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in growth for both segments.

Urban Redevelopment Authority's private residential property price index rose a mere 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2011, its most anaemic growth in 10 quarters since the index bottomed out in Q2 2009.

From the 15.8 per cent q-on-q increase in Q3 2009, the index has now moderated for nine consecutive quarters, according to CBRE's analysis. The 0.2 per cent q-on-q hike in Q4 was lower than the 1.3 per cent q-on-q rise for Q3 last year. For the whole of 2011, the index rose 5.9 per cent - a marked slowdown from the 17.6 per cent jump in 2010.

Most market watchers say it is a given that prices will go down this year, amid the weaker economic outlook and poorer sentiment, especially after the introduction of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) last month.

'Developers know they need to cut prices but the difficulty is in gauging how much. If they don't cut enough, buyers are not going to act. But if they give too much, there's always a fear that buyers will expect a bit more. What you want to do is to give enough for the fence sitters to come back into the market. Despite the weaker economic outlook, there's still a lot of cash and liquidity in the market,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

DTZ's head of Asia Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon predicts a 10-15 per cent drop in URA's overall private home price index in 2012 citing the ABSD which took effect on Dec 8 and the economic slowdown. The luxury housing segment, where there are more foreign buyers, is expected to take the biggest hit given the top ABSD rate of 10 per cent levied on their residential property purchases.

CRBE executive director Li Hiaw Ho expects overall demand for new private homes to be trimmed by 15-20 per cent this year.

'Prices of luxury/prime condos may fall by 10-15 per cent in 2012, and mass-market condos, by 5-10 per cent,' he added.

URA's flash estimates show that the price index for non-landed private homes in Outside Central Region (OCR) - where mass-market condo projects are located - was the star performer, though it has also dimmed somewhat. It rose 0.6 per cent q-on-q in Q4 last year, a slower rise than the 2.1 per cent increase in Q3 2011. The full-year 2011 increase of 7.7 per cent was also slower than the 15 per cent climb in 2010.

Prices of non-landed private homes in OCR increased the fastest as demand was supported by HDB upgraders as well as investors, notes DTZ's Ms Chua.

Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui notes: 'The strong run in the OCR market has led to their current (Q4 2011) prices being 28.3 per cent above their pre global financial crisis peak in 2008, while prices in Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) are only 6 per cent and 15.9 per cent higher than their respective 2008 peaks.'

The price index for non-landed homes in CCR - which includes the traditional prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove - appreciated 0.5 per cent q-on-q in Q4, following a 0.7 per cent gain in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 4 per cent, significantly lower than the 14.2 per cent rise in 2010. The index for RCR for Q4 was unchanged from the preceding quarter, taking the full-year appreciation to 4.4 per cent, after rising 17.6 per cent in 2010.

In the public housing segment, HDB's resale flat price index rose just 1.7 per cent q-on-q in Q4, after rising 3.8 per cent in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 10.7 per cent, slower than 2010's 14.1 per cent climb.

The ramp-up in supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats launched by HDB last year as well as the increase in buyers' monthly household income ceiling from $8,000 to $10,000 has led to more first-time home buyers switching to BTO flats from the resale market, say agents.

ERA's key executive officer Eugene Lim says that cash over valuations (COVs) stabilised at around $30,000-40,000 in Q4, based on transactions handled by ERA. 'Going by what happened in the last recession, flats were sold at or below valuation. If Singapore enters a recession this year, COVs may also turn negative and hence transacted prices also fall.' He predicts HDB's resale flat price index may ease 5-8 per cent for the whole of 2012 in such a scenario.

The drop will be more severe if the HDB proceeds to allot a higher proportion of new Build-To-Order (BTO) flats to second timer buyers, as this leads to further diversion of demand from the HDB resale market.

However, if Singapore escapes recession, the HDB resale flat price index should still increase by up to 5 per cent this year, even if the government sets aside more new flats to second timers, he added.

PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail forecasts a correction of up to 3 per cent in the index. Dennis Wee Group senior manager Lee Sze Teck reckons it could ease up to 5 per cent.

HDB will launch 3,890 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines this month.

ikan bilis

05-01-12, 03:58

(BizTimes, sgp) Published January 5, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Developers launch a slew of projects before CNY

By MINDY TAN

DEVELOPERS are off to a running start in 2012, rolling out a host of housing projects before Chinese New Year.

Qingjian Group will be launching their 99-year leasehold condominium Riversound Residence on Saturday, while City Developments Ltd (CDL) will open applications for its executive condominium (EC) - a public-private housing hybrid - The Rainforest from today. On the public front, Low Keng Huat (LKH) will be unveiling Parkland Residences under the Design, Build, and Sell Scheme (DBSS) tomorrow.

PropNex Realty CEO Mohamad Ismail noted that it is unusual for developers to launch new projects just before Chinese New Year, given that it is traditionally a quieter period.

Developers could be launching early in light of the government's reiteration that it will introduce measures accordingly to keep Singapore's property market stable, pointed out Ku Swee Yong, chief executive of International Property Advisor (IPA).

'I think developers are trying to launch as soon as possible to reduce their financial risk, and reduce the risk of having more new policies (aimed at cooling the market) introduced,' he said.

Knight Frank's head of research and consultancy Png Poh Soon added: 'Since the implementation of the fifth round of cooling measures, developers may be looking to test market sentiment but in a cautious manner. One direct way is to offer residential projects that are attractively priced and with strong attributes to see how buyers react.'
LKH's 680-unit Parkland Residences, located along Upper Serangoon Road, consists of four 18-storey towers.

Prices of three-room flats (721 sq ft) range from $359,000 to $404,000; four-room units (990 sq ft) range from $485,000 to $571,000; and five-room units (1,173 sq ft) range from $606,000 to $676,000. Five-room premium units (1,206 sq ft) - with four bedrooms - range from $608,000 to $706,000. This translates to an average selling price of $549 psf.

R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng noted: 'The pricing on the project is considered reasonable and still quite affordable for eligible buyers, but not significantly attractive for buyers who are on the sidelines and those at the crossroads of deciding between buying a public flat, DBSS flat, or EC.'

E-applications for Parkland Residences start tomorrow and end on Jan 10.

Separately, 99-year leasehold EC The Rainforest, located along Choa Chu Kang Avenue 3, consists of 466 apartments, of which the majority are three-bedroom units.

Developed by CDL and TID - a joint venture between Hong Leong Group and Mitsui Fudosan - prices for units range from approximately $601,000 for a two-bedroom plus study unit (818 sq ft), from $688,000 for a three-bedroom unit (947 sq ft), and from $896,000 for a four- bedroom unit (1,238 sq ft).

A two-bedroom plus study unit ranges from 818 to 1,033 sq ft while penthouses range from 1,819 to 2,174 sq ft. Average selling price for The Rainforest ranges from $720 to $730 psf.

'Resale prices for five-room HDB range from $450,000 to $510,000 while executive HDB flat types are transacting from $520,000 to $600,000. The gap is not wide and most upgraders may look to purchase while locking in at low attractive mortgage rates. Clearly, the pricing of The Rainforest has these upgraders in mind,' said Knight Frank's Mr Png.

Applications for eligible EC buyers are open from today till Jan 9. Bookings will be conducted on Jan 11.

On the private market front, Qingjian Group's 590-unit Riversound Residence will be launched on Saturday.

Situated at Sengkang East Avenue, the 590-unit development comprises six 18-storey blocks. Unit sizes range from 452 sq ft for a one-bedroom unit; 1,184 sq ft for a three-bedroom dual-key unit; and between 2,508 and 2,734 sq ft for a four-bedroom penthouse.

Units are priced at an average of about $850 psf, with early-bird buyers entitled to attractive discounts.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(BizTimes, sgp)
Published January 5, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Curbs on property, foreign workers to stay: economist
Policies reflect structural shift in growth strategy

By KENNETH LIM

(SINGAPORE) Recent curbs on property and foreign workers are here to stay because Singapore is now trying to raise productivity instead of its population to drive growth, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin.

The government may unveil stimulus measures to help ease transition pains, but the country will still face prolonged slow growth and high costs amid global economic turbulence, he added.

'It's probably not a good time to embark completely (on this) when the whole world is in a storm and you're trying to force this structural change,' Mr Chua said at a press conference organised by the bank yesterday.

Singapore will probably enter a technical recession in the first quarter of 2012, with a 30 to 40 per cent chance of negative growth in the second quarter, Mr Chua said.

The gradual slowdown suggests that a sharp V-shaped recovery is unlikely, he noted. Economic activity has not fallen far and fast enough from potential output to ignite a quick bounce-back, and the current foreign worker policy prevents companies from fully capitalising on growth momentum.

'The point is that even after that negative quarter, when you do resume growth, it will not be as strong an uplift as we saw in the past,' Mr Chua said.

Ever since 2011's watershed general elections, in which the ruling People's Action Party saw its share of the vote fall to its lowest level since independence, Singapore has tried to move towards a new growth model that emphasises productivity-led growth, Singaporeans first and inclusiveness, Mr Chua said.

That was partly an acknowledgement of the limitations of the previous population-led model, in which high growth was achieved at the expense of productivity and income equality, he added.
The change was a reintroduction of politics into economic policy, and a sharp change from the tone of previous years.

'It actually strikes at the heart of what Singapore was five years ago, because Singapore was pitched to be a very open place,' Mr Chua pointed out. 'Open to capital, open to foreigners, and open to ideas. I guess we're still evolving to see how far this will go.'

This change in policy direction suggests that the Additional Buyers Stamp Duty on foreigners' property purchases will not be scrapped even if the economy recovers because it targets foreigners, Mr Chua said.

But measures that affect seller's stamp duty and loan-to-value limits could be eased, he added.

Those views were echoed by other observers.

Associate professor Hui Weng Tat of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy said that Singapore's land constraints make extremely high property prices problematic for citizens. 'It doesn't make sense for Singapore to allow home prices to go sky-high,' he said. 'Why not divert your energy elsewhere?'

One property equity analyst, who declined to be named, also thought that the seller's stamp duty measures, which try to curb speculative selling, could be eased. 'It sort of prevents the market from setting a clearing price,' the analyst said.

By pursuing productivity, Singapore will be pursuing a risky strategy that can offer about 3 per cent growth, before labour force growth of about 2 per cent, in a best-case scenario, Mr Chua reckoned.

Productivity can be elusive in downturns.

'If the production surge fails, such that it proves more of a mirage, there's a danger of inflation being sticky and staying here, which actually we're starting to see,' Mr Chua said.

Echoing a common worry among economists, Mr Chua said 'we seem to be heading into a stagflation scenario because this new model actually is pushing a lot of wage costs up'.

'You're in a bad place,' he noted. 'You're heading into a recession, you're supposed to ease monetary policy, but with inflation above 5 per cent, I doubt they're going to ease.'

The government will probably announce some stimulus measures in its budget announcement in February, but is likely to leave current measures alone.

'In the budget in February, (Minister for Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnam) could probably give some rebates - the usual conservancy rebates, utility rebates for the lower income groups, the HDB households to mitigate (inflation),' Mr Chua said.

'And some of those enter the CPI, which kind of depresses the figures. But are they going to reverse the (vehicle ownership) COE policy of making sure it's only 0.5 per cent from July? I don't think so.'

For the year ahead, Mr Chua sees possible vulnerabilities from Singapore's large exposure to European banks with growing expectations that the eurozone will head into a recession. Claims from European institutions form 60 per cent of Singapore's total bank claims, or 83 per cent of GDP, he noted.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is also predicting a soft landing for China's economy, defined as a slowdown of GDP growth to 8.6 per cent in 2012 from 9.2 per cent in 2011. A hard landing would hit Singapore's growth to the tune of about 0.7 percentage points for every one percentage point slowdown in China, Mr Chua said.

But South-east Asia should be able to weather a hard landing relatively well, in the sense that a sharp slowdown in China is unlikely to create a systemic credit crisis like in the global financial crisis, he explained.

The bank is predicting an even chance of a new round of monetary stimulus from the United States in the first half of 2012, which would send capital into Asian economies.

South-east Asian central banks will probably ease policy in response to global pressures. The Monetary Authority of Singapore could maintain its 'modest and gradual' target for currency appreciation because of high inflation, but the risk tilts toward a shift to neutral, Mr Chua said.

Mr Chua is forecasting GDP growth of -3 per cent in a bear scenario and 5 per cent in a bull scenario, with his baseline prediction at 2.8 per cent.

ikan bilis

05-01-12, 11:56

為甚麼一手銷情火熱，二手冷凍？

汤文亮紀惠集團行政總裁
2011/08/16
2012年1月5日

　　香港地產商一向掌握市場脈搏，知道購買力何時會出現，但萬萬想不到今次政府出招，二手如預期所料，陷入冰封狀態，但一手銷情火熱，愈戰愈有，今個聖誕新年假期更加將這個情況很明顯的表現出來。地產商當然開心，但二手業主並無不滿，他們心態就是收住租先，況且賣了樓，沒有20%跌幅是不化算，所以，不賣就不賣，而大家有此心理因素，二手如何不冰封？

　　有人歸究地產商高佣政策，說得不錯，若果改為地產商有系統地的高佣政策，比較合適。過往，地上商採用3%的高佣政策，令各地產經紀私底下回贈給買家，大家鬥過你死我活。我曾經有朋友獲回贈是樓價2.75%，亦即是說物業代理行只能收取0.25%，試問在這情況下，物業代理如何會積極推銷新盤？做二手盤分分鐘有2%佣金，所以二手成交量一向不俗。

　　地產商改變策略，用跳BAR制，要取得3%或最高佣金，該物業代理行一定要有相當多銷量，亦相信沒有一個代理單人取得最高佣金，亦即是說，就算有代理願意回贈，他的力度有限，買家的回贈亦有限。故此，現在地產商在新樓盤付出的佣金，大多數全落入地產代理行及經紀口袋裡，如此豐盛的佣金，怎麼不教物業代理努力工作？

　　有一批人受到政府出招影響，在銀行收緊按揭下未能夠付出足夠首期，但又恐怕樓價繼續飈升，在這情況下，唯有把心一橫，買新樓，只付10%至15%首期，希望在入伙時政府放寬有關法例，他們可以順利上會，否則，地產商現時為求去貨，大多數表示買家有需要時可以提供二按，二手物業市場並沒有業主願意提供這項優惠，結果購買力都給新樓盤搶去了。

　　其實香港物業市場購買力自然增長，連同國內湧至的購買力，需求量驚人，樓價飈升，政府惟有出招打壓，炒風是消滅了，但是購買力並沒有削弱的跡象，尤其是國內購買力，國內人士在港若果不足購買豪宅的話，絕大多數是會選擇新樓盤，貪其貨真價實，貴些少反而不是問題，再加上一些香港地產商品牌效應，所以，新樓銷情一直不俗，甚至出乎地產商意料之外。

　　政府在未開徵特別印花稅時，已經不准轉售樓花，故此打擊炒樓措施對樓花影響不大，反而，不准轉售樓花，地產商將樓花出售後，購買者兩年內不會轉售，亦即是不會變成為競爭對手。這點對地產商大大有利。首先不會因樓盤出售初期，折扣率大，購買者在樓盤後期，或者樓宇有一個百分比升幅時，初期的購買者會將手上擁有的物業出售而獲利，直接使樓盤供應量增加，地產商可以準確控制銷售情況，而少了競爭對手，開價亦可以進取一些。

　　其次是每一層新樓售出時不准轉讓，亦即是每一層新樓只得一個交易，撻訂的機會減少了，所以，不斷有人說SSD其實是幫地產商，但我相信政府未必會如他們所說幫地產商，但政府未能了解內情，胡亂出招，擾亂形勢而不自知。

ikan bilis

06-01-12, 07:41

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC120105-0000049/China-home-prices-drop-for-4th-straight-month

China home prices drop for 4th straight month

04:46 AM Jan 05, 2012

BEIJING - China's home prices fell for a fourth month in December as the government prolonged a crackdown on speculation that risks deepening the slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy.

Property values in 100 major Chinese cities dropped 0.25 per cent to 8,809 yuan (S$1,800) per sq m in December from November, according to the China Real Estate Index System and online real-estate brokerage SouFun Holdings.

Prices slid in 60 of 100 cities, remained flat in three and rose in 37 cities.

Compared with a year earlier, average home values climbed 2.86 per cent in December, a slower increase than November's annual 4.06 per cent rise.

China has in the past two years implemented measures to curb property speculation and make housing more affordable. Home sales and prices have subsequently fallen, although this has put pressure on developers and local governments that depend on land sales for revenue.

Two government researchers said in the People's Daily yesterday that while Beijing is resolved to continue intervening in the property market, that will not necessarily result in a hard landing in the sector, and warned about the exaggeration of such risks. Agencies

ikan bilis

06-01-12, 07:44

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120106-0000078/Private-home-prices,-rents-up-but-,,,

Private home prices, rents up but ...
by Millet Enriquez (http://forums.condosingapore.com/)

04:48 AM Jan 06, 2012

SINGAPORE - Private home prices and rents in Singapore went up in 2011 from the previous year, despite the cooling measures that include imposing seller's stamp duty and reduction in loan-to-value limit, said property consulting firm DTZ.

However, the growth is expected to have tapered off last month and is likely to continue falling this year, it said.

"Historically, significant price falls have been triggered by external events that affect the economy rather than cooling measures. The projected economic slowdown in 2012 will thus have a more significant impact on buyer sentiment and consequently on demand and prices," said Ms Chua Chor Hoon, DTZ's head of Asia Pacific Research.

In a report released yesterday, DTZ said the resale prices of leasehold condominiums in suburban areas rose 8.2 per cent from a year ago.

This makes it the fastest-growing segment among non-landed housing, according to a basket of completed condominiums tracked by DTZ.

Fourth-quarter flash estimates released also showed Housing and Development Board resale prices went up last year by 10.7 per cent, but prices of luxury condominiums only saw 1.0 per cent on-year growth in 2011.

DTZ said the global economic uncertainties dampened demand for luxury condominiums, dragging prices down by 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Home prices in the prime freehold segment also took a hit, growing only 4.6 per cent on-year compared to 8.3 per cent in 2010.

This is in contrast to resale prices of freehold landed homes, which rose 12.8 per cent on-year in the prime districts. Leasehold landed homes in suburban areas also rose 12.4 per cent last year.

Rents, meanwhile, were also higher last year, led by condominium rents which inched up 8.9 per cent.

This was due to demand from foreign professionals with higher housing allowances.

But rents for luxury condominiums only grew 1.3 per cent on-year.

From January to November last year, private home sales of 15,393 units already outpaced the 15,288 units sold in the same period in 2010.

Overall, DTZ expects take-up rate for the year at 16,000 units or slightly lower than the 16,292 units sold in 2010.

ikan bilis

06-01-12, 18:18

(BizTimes, sgp) Published January 6, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Some return units to developers, fearing price dip

They prefer to forfeit 1.25% of unit price; developers still sanguine

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Developers of major projects released in November and early December have seen some units being returned. Market watchers say this could be a knee-jerk reaction to the introduction of the additional buyer's stamp duty.

Those who do not exercise their option to buy forfeit a quarter of the 5 per cent option fee, equivalent to 1.25 per cent of the purchase price of the unit. But this would be a small price to pay for those who believe that private home prices may slide sharply.

Even in routine times, some units get returned to developers for a host of reasons.

At CapitaLand's Bedok Residences, which was released on Nov 23, about 4 per cent or around 20 of the 495 options issued were not exercised by the deadlines.

In Pasir Ris, where City Developments Ltd (CDL), Hong Leong Holdings and Hong Realty released The Palette condo in the first half of November, buyers for about 4 per cent or around 17 of the 436 units granted options have decided not to exercise them, said a CDL spokeswoman.

At the Archipelago condo facing Bedok Reservoir Park, about 12 per cent or 15 of the 130 units for which options were issued since the project was previewed on Dec 2 are being returned to developers UOL Group and Singapore Land.

The average price for the 577-unit five-storey, 99-year leasehold condo is about $1,000 psf. 'All 15 or so units returned are apartments; none of the strata semi-detached homes sold in the project have been returned,' said a spokesman for UOL.

A seasoned property agent said: 'While Bedok Residences and The Palette were released in November, Archipelago's preview began just five days prior to the additional buyer's stamp duty being announced on the evening of Dec 7, and hence (buyers) had a longer window to exercise options post-Dec 7.

'There was a higher chance of a knee-jerk reaction among Archipelago buyers deciding to let options lapse on fears of an overall price correction in the Singapore private residential market.'

On a more positive note, UOL's spokesman said: 'The fact that around 90 per cent of those who had been granted options at Archipelago have decided to go ahead with their purchase shows they are confident about the pricing of the development, notwithstanding the latest curbs. We will release the returned units to the pool available for sale.'

CDL's spokeswoman said the units returned at The Palette may not necessarily be due to the cooling measures. Personal reasons and financing matters could also be at play.

To date, 450 of the total 892 units in the project have been released. The project is now selling at about $890 psf on average.

CapitaLand Residential Singapore's spokeswoman said yesterday: 'Eighty five per cent of the 583 available units at Bedok Residences have been sold, mainly to Singaporeans and permanent residents. To date, over 95 per cent of buyers have signed their Sales and Purchase Agreements, which reinforces the strong appeal of the development.' The condo is priced at $1,350 psf on average.

Earlier project launches with units returned to developers include The Tennery in Choa Chu Kang, with nearly 6 per cent or 13 of the 220 units that had been sold in December 2010 (when the project was released) returned by the following month.

Eight Courtyards in Yishun saw 2.9 per cent or 10 of the 340 units sold in April last year being returned in May.

BT surmised the above figures from a comparison of developers' monthly sale declarations to the Urban Redevelopment Authority; but in fact the actual returned units could be higher, suggest analysts, since developers could have seen units being returned within the same month of options being granted and would just declare the net units sold by month-end to URA.

ikan bilis

07-01-12, 21:21

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pd3.cfm?File=20120107/pda01/gaa1.txt

香港業主打贏巴菲特
去年港樓價升8％股神輸錢4.7％

文章日期：2012年1月7日

回顧2011年，香港仍處在高通脹和低利率的大環境下，加上外圍經濟和金融市場極為動盪，要保存擁有的財富殊不容易。不過，香港的業主卻做到了，過去一年的成績更加跑贏了「股神」巴菲特！

可不是嗎？香港去年的通脹率高逾5％，但存款利率卻仍然接近零，大家都為保存現金的購買力而頭痛。若然因看不通後市，而選擇將銀行放在活期紅簿仔，則存款經過一年以後，大概不見了5個巴仙的購買力。而若選擇買股，恒指去年跌了約20％，對股民而言，除非獨具慧眼，否則可說是哀痛的一年。

更可悲的是，大部分打工仔都要供款的強積金，去年也錄得約8.4%的負回報！或許，一般港人較熟悉的投資工具中，還有黃金在去年升了10％，但大家要忍受得了期間的大幅波動。

相比之下，香港業主可說是去年較幸運的一群，雖然因政府不斷打壓樓市和增加土地供應，加上按揭利率回升和股市受壓等不利因素，樓價去年中起終稍見回落，但一般住宅樓價全年計仍錄得接近8％的升幅，這還未計期內享有3至4厘的租金回報！

文首說香港業主過去一年的戰績跑贏了股神，可不是亂說的。事實上，雖然美國股市去年表現不太差，標普500指數全年接近「打和」，但股神的投資旗艦巴郡，股價全年卻下跌了4.7%，跑輸了美股和香港的一般住宅樓價！

除了股神外，近年聲名大噪的「沽神」、在次按爆煲一役勁賺的保爾森，其旗艦基金Advantage Plus股價更在一年內勁挫達52％，至於有「債王」稱號的格羅斯，旗下的主力基金Total Return同樣表現不濟，全年僅升4.2%，不單輸給96%的同業，也不是香港業主的對手！

去年動盪港樓調整相對溫和

當然，筆者不是說股神不濟，而是去年整體投資環境確實太過動盪，好淡因素多樣化，而且變化速度極高，相對之下，香港樓市雖然近月也開始出現了調整，但主要體現在成交萎縮，加上港人住屋或換樓需求依然強勁，樓價迄今的調整幅度亦相對溫和。

另外，正如銷售基金或其他投資工具時需要指出的是，過往的價格走勢和回報表現，並不代表未來會一樣，去年香港樓價堅挺，不代表今年仍一定可跑贏大市。這裏不評論現時是應否入市買樓自住或投資，但也想提醒大家，正如金管局前總裁任志剛所言，在香港沒有自住物業，與「沽空」樓市效果相若，因樓價和租金固然會有機會下調，但也絕不能保證不會回頭上升！

若賣樓炒股賠了夫人又折兵

其實，過去一年，相信最惆悵的，還是那些賣了樓等樓價跌，卻又手痕將套現了的資金轉投股市的人，變成賠了夫人又折兵！

還有，大家更不要以為「跑贏」了股神，便沾沾自喜，筆者近日訪問了一位知名基金經理，他便說論投資成績，不能單以數月或一年便為英雄或狗熊，而是要經歷整個投資周期以後，才知誰是最後勝利者。而過去數十年，股神之所以成為股神，雖也有個別年份失手，但以十年或廿年計，卻是大贏特贏，而香港樓市也曾經歷多個起落周期，當中有曾賺大錢，也有被大浪走，當然也有永遠做塘邊鶴，過了數十年，仍是無殼蝸牛。

說到股神的致勝策略，他月前接受美國CNBC電視台訪問，其對答頗值得參考。訪問中，主持問他：「你是如何處理不確定性的？你是忽略所有的不確定性，還是說，你會想法處理這些不確定性，並做出投資決策？」

股神教路 眼資產長期潛力

股神回應說：「世界總是不確定的。即使聯儲局主席伯南克來見我，在我耳邊小聲告訴我們他明天將會做這件事那件事，我也根本不會改變我對自己想要買入股票的公司的看法。將來肯定會出現各種各樣的大事件，肯定會有各種各樣的不確定性，最終真正重要的是你持有的公司、農場、房子未來這些年份表現如何。我無法確定買入和賣出的具體時間。」

若應用於樓市，我們永遠都不可能確定市場的短期變化，最重要是個人的分析和看法，不要受短期消息或人家意見的過度影響，而是在意買入物業的長期潛力。

明報記者陸振球

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

URA All Residential index up about ~5% in 2011... NUS-SRPI resale index up about ~10% in 2011 (estimated,.. final number only available 2-3 wks later...)
SGX STI stock index down by -17% in 2011

:im-so-happy:

richwang

07-01-12, 22:05

Pls try google translate, it is much better compared with 5 years ago. I use it in my daily work because I need to support global customers who speak Arab, Germany, French, Japanese, etc.

translate.google.com

I seriously don''t understand why you need to setup 100M fund to prompt bi-lingual. Money cannot buy everything. Just ask the President to pass PSLE Higher Chinese Oral Exam will be good enough to show the nation how important a language is. LKY learned his Chinese to win the voters, I am sure the President can do the same - since he doesn't have much things to do anyway.

Thanks,
Richard
Here is a sample of the translation of the 1st article. No need for me to do the rest since you know the "fishing" now.

=============================================

The property market following the stock market crash?

Recent weeks, the spate of bad news, the stock market continued to pressure. Many have experienced the property market bubble and the 1997 Asian financial crisis of 1998 potential buyers are worried that the same property would be like to follow the stock market crash that year. Let the author to analyze.

Different sources of storm

Ten years ago, the property market turn down, mainly due to the overheated property market, regardless of the contribution rate, interest rate and inflation rate showed a poor ill-health, coupled with speculation and Mount traded goods very much, many investors can not afford on the Council, any adverse factors that bear engraved buyers would rather set off for the tart, stop-loss to leave. When Asian currencies (including Hong Kong) is predators attack, the whole of Asia into a financial mess, the direct property market is also down avalanche.

Today, the stock market by the financial tsunami upward move into the top two callback promise, mainly due to debt crisis in Europe and the U.S. sovereign rating lowered, raising the prospects for global economic worries, and concerns about stagflation occurs. Words are, the core of the storm is not Asia, but U.S. and European markets both old economic engine, the local housing market, speculators are not at all impossible for people who type panic step down, showing the two center of the storm of financial crisis not the same.

Also see short-term psychological impact of fundamental factors

Property market in the short term, does by the stock market and economic news, so that buyers and sellers more psychological barriers, the owners are more willing to dump prices, and potential buyers bid on the more conservative. But from the perspective of a long line, do not say too far, they look at the history of the past decade. Readers can easily find, since SARS in 2003, HSI has been increased to 2007, and the property market rose early in 2005 after the main places rampant, but in October 2007 after the stock market peaked, prices started upward move, even if 2008 financial crisis, the stock market fell to 2004 levels, the callback property only to the early 2007's upward move. Today, the stock market peak in 2007 has not yet returned, but prices have more than before the financial tsunami of 2008 increased by about 5 percent.

Thus, the stock and property markets are the two markets, although the economy will affect their performance, but each subject to different fundamental factors, leading the property market factors, such as: new supply low, low interest rates, low unemployment, high inflation and other factors In the coming year has not changed. Therefore, the analysis of the property market when the stock market compared with the blind Remember affect judgments.

amk

10-01-12, 13:03

ok my turn to post some interesting news. (btw forgot to mention, 信和 is the FEO in HK)

2012 first successful HK "hot" launch. This is not mass market cheap projects. psf S$2500 to $3000.

由信和等發展的西九龍御金．國㗖，樓盤開售至今已售出超過五百五十伙，佔整體約七成半，反應不俗。發展商繼續密鑼緊鼓加推單位應市，已推達六百二十伙。

　　本年度熱銷新盤，由信和，南豐，嘉華及華置合作發展的西九龍御金國㗖，發展商表示，樓盤開賣至今已售出單位超過五百五十伙，佔整體七百四十伙的約七成五，銷情理想。

　　同時，發展商日前第十一度加推單位，推出十二伙標準戶和一伙特色單位應市。而單計目前加推的單位數量已達五百七十八伙，連同首張價單的五十伙，樓盤現已推出六百二十八伙。換言之，該盤僅餘一百一十二個單位尚未推出。

　　據價單顯示，十二個標準戶涵蓋所有座數，單位分布於http://www.singtao.com.hk/adfolder/advhead2.gif
五樓三十三樓，面積由五百一十至二千零五十二方呎，平均呎價一萬五千六百一十九元。

　　另外，該批價單中的特色戶，為一座三十七樓A室，面積一千九百二十三方呎，附設一個面積四十三方呎的平台，單位定價為三千九百一十九萬元，平均呎價二萬零三百八十元。

　　市場消息人士透露，發展商考慮最快在今日就未推的單位加價，大單位的加幅為百分之三，而細單位則加價約百分之四。而項目昨約錄十一宗成交，當中包括一客連購兩伙，為一座的三十二樓A及B室，面積分別為一千四百七十八方呎及一千二百零七方呎，分別以二千四百五十五萬八千元及一千九百六十九萬八千元成交，呎價介乎一萬六千三百二十元至一萬六千六百一十六元。

amk

10-01-12, 13:06

another one record psf deal for that area.

由嘉華等發展的香港仔豪宅新盤深灣9號，發展商昨日公布，項目九座頂層複式單位成交，作價一億零五百五十萬元，平均呎價三萬九千六百四十七元，創該盤開售以來新高，更屬香港仔一帶呎價高位。發展商指不排除複式戶「賣一間加一間」，但預料加幅溫和，最快於農曆新年後有新部署。

　　由嘉華、信和與南豐合作的香港仔豪宅盤深灣9號，昨日發展商公布落實首宗頂層複式單位成交，為九座三十三樓B室，面積二千六百六十一方呎，另設有六百七十六方呎平台，成交價約一億零五百五十萬元，平均呎價三萬九千六百四十七元，為該盤自去年十月開售以來，最高成交呎價的一伙。

ikan bilis

10-01-12, 16:51

BizTimes, sgp

January 10, 2012, 5.22 pm (Singapore time)
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
5 bids for Mt Vernon Rd condo plot, top bid at S$388.11m

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

A state tender for a 99-year leasehold private condominium housing plot at Mount Vernon Road, near Bartley MRT Station, has attracted five bids.

The top bid - which came from a consortium comprising Hong Leong Holdings, City Developments and TID - was about $388.11 million or $495 per square foot per plot ratio.
The lowest bid was $250.8 million.
The tender was conducted by Urban Redevelopment Authority and closed on Tuesday, Jan 10, 2012.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BizTimes, sgp

Published January 10, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
All eyes on GLS tenders for condo sites
Developers will be cautious but remain fleet-footed if sentiment improves

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) As the first Government Land Sales (GLS) tender for a 99-year leasehold private condo plot for 2012 closes today for a site at Mount Vernon Road near Bartley MRT Station, expectations are running high that the cautious bidding seen during the last state tender closing in 2011 (at Punggol Place) will continue.

The Punggol tender, which closed on Dec 15, a week after the latest property cooling measures were announced on Dec 7, drew 13 bids but big property developers were mostly absent. The top bid by Wee Hur Development of about $354 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) was 12.8 per cent shy of the $406 psf ppr paid for the nearby site a year earlier that is currently being developed into A Treasure Trove condo.

If this pattern continues, today's tender may similarly see the top bid lower than the $620.61 psf ppr that a nearby plot next to Bartley MRT Station fetched in March last year.

To begin with, the latest site is not as coveted as the earlier plot, which is right next to the MRT station and surrounded by a landed housing estate, as a seasoned developer points out. The current plot is in a more mixed sort of environment, surrounded by Bartley Secondary School, SPCA and the Gurkha Cantonment. Also likely to temper developers' bids at today's tender is the more cautious bidding climate - given Singapore's weaker economic outlook in 2012 and the Dec 7 cooling measures.

Starting Dec 8, a 3 per cent additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) became payable by permanent residents purchasing their second and subsequent residential property and by Singaporeans buying their third and subsequent residential property. The ABSD is set at 10 per cent on any private homes here bought by foreigners.

Most analysts expect the ABSD to clip foreign buying and demand for investment homes. This, in turn, will soften the prices at which developers can sell their projects. Another reason for developers to temper their land bids is the new five-year limit the government has set for developers buying residential sites from Dec 8 to finish building their project and, more critically, to sell all the units in the project - if they want to avoid paying a 10 per cent ABSD.

From a developer's standpoint, there's less room to price projects aggressively as there is a risk of being stuck with a substantial number of unsold units at the end of the five years. To be on the safer side, developers will be more cautious in formulating land bids.

The cumulative supply building up from previous Government Land Sales sites will also weigh on developers' minds when buying land.

Even before the Dec 7 cooling measures, there was evidence that private home prices were plateauing, as seen in the 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase in the Urban Redevelopment Authority's private home price index for Q4 2011. This was based on transactions in the first 10 weeks of the quarter, which would be till Dec 10.

So logically, all the signs point to developers pricing their bids cautiously at GLS tenders this year.

But then, sentiment can be a very fickle thing. If for instance after an initial standoff, buyers return to showflats in large numbers or there's some other positive newsflow, some developers could feel hungrier for land.

Last year saw demand adjusting to the 'new normal' fairly soon after shocks such as the US debt timebomb, eurozone crisis and the stockmarket tanking in July/August.

On Aug 11 last year, a tender for a site at Pheng Geck Avenue next to Potong Pasir MRT Station received a top bid by Tuan Sing which was 6.6 per cent lower than the price that Qingdao Construction had paid in June 2010 for the neighbouring Nin Residence plot.

The trend was also visible at a September tender, when a plot at Upper Serangoon Crescent was sold at lower than prices for comparable sites three months and 10 months earlier.

By October, developers had grown more confident, with top bids for 99-year leasehold private condo plots at state tenders once again surpassing the prices for comparable sites sold in 2010, as an analysis by Credo Real Estate shows.

The year ahead could prove challenging for crystal ball gazers.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
:cutedoggy: ....run for your life, take cover... :D

ikan bilis

12-01-12, 13:45

umm... let's listen to some perma-bull talking in hk university... ;)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://news.mingpao.com/20120112/lam1_print.htm

紀惠CEO湯文亮：購買力凝聚今年樓市先跌後升

【明報專訊】2011年樓市先升後回，成交卻不斷萎縮，踏入2012年，樓市又會有何方向？管理逾200億元私人家族物業的紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮，剛於本周一在理工大學為地產代理監管局作演講嘉賓，向近千名代理分析了今年樓市的最新形勢。

湯文亮認為，樓市短期或會繼續輕微調整，但購買力正在凝聚，待年中以後銀行或會放寬按揭，到時便會價量回升，至年尾時更可能出現「厄爾尼諾」現象，出現短暫的買家搶入市情，屆時反而要小心樓價急升後會急回。

湯文亮指出，很多評論員、經濟學者，甚至風水先生對今年樓市已經作出評論、預測。絕大多數人都對樓市表現看得較灰，說樓市下跌比上升大約是9比1，即是10個人9個會說今年樓市下跌，而多數預測今年會跌10%至15%，若真的是如此，只可以說是調整，談不上下跌。

旗下物業99.9%租出加租不俗

他說，有記者問他對2012年樓市預測，他便回到公司查一查數簿，見旗下物業出租率有99.9%，加租幅度亦不錯，又見到街上人頭湧湧，消費強勁，機場出入班次又破紀錄，第三條跑道亦事在必行。在這種情下，又如何可預測樓市有10%至15%跌幅？

「我相信樓市在政府監察下，要大升是沒有可能，但是實在有需要調整，亦不會大跌。」湯預期，在上半年，尤其是在首季，樓市或者會向下稍微調整，但隨「內保外貸」的資金回籠，銀行將會稍為放寬按揭，其實已經開始有銀行這樣做，利息會回落，樓價會回穩，下半年銀行轉趨積極，樓價會進一步攀升，但是幅度不會很大，估計在10%以內。

「若果樓市如我所料，將會在今年尾，或者明年初置業人數會急升，樓價亦會升。議員們又會發難，新特首及各問責官員又要諗計。其實，官員們在這時亦不需要太擔心，這個現象我叫『呃汝黎落搭』，即是『呃你落搭』。與天文學上『聖嬰現象』，或者我們時常聽到的『厄爾尼諾現象』相若。」

「什麼是『厄爾尼諾現象』？若果要我用天文學解釋，將會是解釋得不明不白，聽得亦不明不白，所以，我將這個現象社會化。」

或現地產厄爾尼諾現象

「話說，有一家餐廳在晚上開，七時有大約70%客人訂了位，8時半則大約有60%訂了位，但在傍晚6時半下大雨，訂了7時位的人因為塞車，大多數要在7時半之後才陸陸續續到達餐廳，但在8時15分，訂了晚上8時半位子的人恐防塞車，情願早一點到達。到晚上9時，訂7時位的顧客仍未進餐完畢，雖然有一半訂了8時半的客人可以進入餐廳，但依然有一半人，佔整體30%要在門口等候。在街外人看來，這間餐廳是非常旺場，其實這只不過是『厄爾尼諾現象』。」

按揭一鬆綁購買力釋放

「若果今年地產市道如我所說『乘風破浪』，在今年底或者明年初亦會出現地產界『厄爾尼諾現象』。政府打擊炒樓經過一年多時間，成交量降至一個極低水平。若果銀行放寬按揭，必定有一批熱切期待的置業人士上車，大多數人亦知道，當銀行放寬按揭，亦是最好時機，這時購買力釋放。這還不止，有一批未需要置業的人士，見銀行放寬按揭，樓價上升，恐防他日政府再度收緊按揭，亦急不及待上車……一大堆要置業的人士，在供不應求的情下，樓價自然會升。但特首及問責官員對此不需恐慌，此為地產界『厄爾尼諾現象』，當稍後供應增加，需求減少，樓價自然會回復正常。」

明報記者陸振球

amk

15-01-12, 11:11

ikan bilis

15-01-12, 11:44

haha... sorry lah :ashamed1: , bro,... me never heard of that news yet... i think your news source faster....

recently hot selling is like 升御门, most of the other news are negative news, either for new launch, resale or rental market.... :beats-me-man:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

信和推新春优惠吸客(成报)

2012年1月14日

　　近日巿况淡静，为提高入巿意欲，发展商相继推出买楼优惠。继长江实业（001）旗下三新盘推出新春大优惠后，信和置业（083）早前除推出按揭优惠后，昨日再公布春节买楼优惠，价值逾1.3万元。

　　昨晚加推1座1,833平方尺（实用面积1,452平方尺）的标准单位，位於第6座37楼A室，尺价20,076元（实用尺价25,344 元），售3680万元。另外，巿传早前加推的1伙位於第3座26楼A室、2,052平方尺（1,622平方尺）的单位获买家预留。该单位建筑尺价 17,443元，售3579.4万元。

　　信和营业部总经理田兆源表示，旗下大埔天赋海湾、九龙塘逸珑、西九龙御金・国峯三新盘提供礼券优惠。由昨日起至初八（本月30日）期间的买家可获赠信和酒店礼券，价值13,888元。

　　荟点不加入优惠战

　　至於累售37伙，套现1.27亿元的红磡荟点，宏安（1222）助理总经理杨桂玲表示，暂未计划推出新春优惠予买家。她认为春节过后，买家会陆续回归巿场睇楼，相信届时客源续渐增加，有助销情，料销量会稳步上扬。

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

=> (..... but hor, you might be right. Because HK's floor area is construction area, which is like 15-25% bigger than use-able floor area or the build-in area)

ikan bilis

15-01-12, 12:08

kane

15-01-12, 13:46

HK 2012 best new launch, the FEO's west Kowloon project, had just recorded new high psf, 30000HKD.
Separately Kerry Properties also recorded sales of its luxury Altitude project.
All these happening while secondary market is totally frozen.

Ikan bro can you find the original HK paper reports on this ?

Too much M3 floating in the system. And too Mich sideline money itching for a piece of the market. This kind of price still selling like hot cakes? Maybe HK will have one CM to catch up with us.

CCR

15-01-12, 16:47

wow...,
sgp most expensive marq record price S$6K+, average S$4K+
hk kowloon west already hit S$4Kpsf.... :scared-4:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
sgp zoning: CCR >> RCR >> OCR
hk zoning: HK Island >> Kowloon >> NT East > NT West

Does anyone knows what is the transacted prices of those condos above the Kowloon mtr station? The location where W hotel is located right after the tunnel to hong kong island?

Is that west Kowloon?

ikan bilis

15-01-12, 17:17

wikipedia - west kowloon...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Kowloon

and note that future train line into china, cut throught futian-shenzhen... also note the numbers of mtr lines at west kowloon....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_projects_of_the_MTR

;)

ikan bilis

16-01-12, 16:52

CM5 squeezing until all sales volume dried up... :banghead:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(BizTimes, sgp)
January 16, 2012, 1.00 pm (Singapore time)
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Developers' private homes sales slides to 632 units in December

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

Developers' private home sales dropped to 632 units, excluding executive condos (ECs) in December.

This was 62.9 per cent lower than the 1,702 units developers sold in November, show latest figures from Urban Redevelopment Authority released on Jan 16.

December's sales decline followed the government's announcement of the additional buyer's stamp duty on Dec 7.

The 632-unit sales figure for Dec 2011 was the lowest monthly sales figure since June 2010, when developers sold 847 units.

Including executive condos, which are a public-private housing hybrid, developers sold 670 units in December, down 63.9 per cent from November.

bargain hunter

16-01-12, 18:39

no lah. its coz hillier kelong, going to recognize all 332 units sold so far in jan 2012.

CM5 squeezing until all sales volume dried up... :banghead:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(BizTimes, sgp)
January 16, 2012, 1.00 pm (Singapore time)
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Developers' private homes sales slides to 632 units in December

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

Developers' private home sales dropped to 632 units, excluding executive condos (ECs) in December.

This was 62.9 per cent lower than the 1,702 units developers sold in November, show latest figures from Urban Redevelopment Authority released on Jan 16.

December's sales decline followed the government's announcement of the additional buyer's stamp duty on Dec 7.

The 632-unit sales figure for Dec 2011 was the lowest monthly sales figure since June 2010, when developers sold 847 units.

Including executive condos, which are a public-private housing hybrid, developers sold 670 units in December, down 63.9 per cent from November.

ikan bilis

18-01-12, 12:44

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pb3.cfm?File=20120118/pba01/1.txt

美45％富豪家庭擬增房產投資

文章日期：2012年1月18日

有錢人並不總是對的，不過，至少他們以往的投資行為，總是對多過錯，否則也不會成為有錢人。所以，你可以憎恨富人，但卻不應該忽視他們的投資行為，因那可能是搭上財富順風車的法門。

《華爾街日報》引述私人投資者研究機構（Institute for Private Investors，IPI）一份名為「家庭業績追蹤」（Family Performance Tracking）的專題研究，調查了可投資資產不低於3000萬美元的美國富豪家庭，這些被訪家庭認為，2012年標普指數的平均回報率會達6.4%。但從這些人的實際投資計劃中可以看出，他們對美國經濟前景的看法較為悲觀，因為打算增加持有全球股票（其中包括海外股）的人雖然最少有44%，卻低於去年64%的比例。

富豪今年更喜歡大宗商品、房地產、私營企業和現金。2012年，打算增加大宗商品資金配置的人至少佔48%，增加房地產資金配置的人佔45%，打算減少現金持有的只有36%。

調查又發現，超過一半的富豪家庭希望增加對私營企業的直接投資，而且他們還愈來愈看好黃金、土地，以及藝術品等有形資產。

據《華爾街日報》報道，IPI創始人兼首席執行長拜爾（Charlotte Beyer）說，今年我們聽到投資者普遍說的是，他們要減少對公開市場的風險敞口，以及對金融工具和交易策略的依賴，很多投資者將繼續採取防守姿勢。即是說，對有關富豪來說，財富保值比財富增值更加重要。另外，他們亦非常關注通脹對財富的影響。

撰文﹕陸振球（明報地產版主管）

ikan bilis

19-01-12, 11:13

大C肺腑之言 (2) – 只怕凡人心不堅

汤文亮紀惠集團行政總裁
2012年1月19日

　　大C功力深厚，喜歡雲遊四方，普渡眾生。一日，屈指一算，香江樓市呈跌市現象，但奈何百萬香江業主，齊心非常，就算政府推出打擊炒樓措施，但樓價不跌反升。

　　大C見香江業主冥頑不靈，有必要點醒他們，於是騰雲駕霧，一瞬間已到香江，不但擺下論壇，並在報章發表。香港樓市敗象已成，雖然樓市跌幅不大，但租金亦下調，樓市距離大跌的時候不遠矣。論壇下大C見各小業主憂心忡忡，甚喜。說樓市將大跌5成，期間可能有小陽春，不過這是各位的逃生門，大C並強調我在去年甚至過去幾年一直預測樓市會下沉，今次一定一語中的，不期然笑了出來。

　　大C的論壇當然是大C的支持者聽，他們跟隨大C多年，在股壇上已損失不少，又沒有置業，每兩年業主加一次租，今年租約到期，不知業主要加租多少？故面露憂戚，不過令大C誤會，以為他們擔心樓市下跌。況且，年近歲晚，百物騰貴，比去年同期加幅20%至30%比比皆是，花農說春雨，加幅30%，豬農反壟斷，不准超市減價。論壇下有聽眾不明所指，大C說租跌，但是每一個業主都加租，於是有信眾問大C，為何你說租跌？但我的業主加租，今年百物騰貴，如何過年？請大C指點。

　　大C顯得不耐煩，對信眾說﹕「這是天機，不可洩漏」，我說﹕租跌，租便跌，這不是創世紀，是創港紀，總之租一定跌，樓價一定跌，為何會跌？無可奉告。全場氣氛急轉直下，從大家憂心變成劍拔弩張，僵持不下。

　　一位大C信眾在這時偷偷地將這件事用i-pad打在我的文章回應箱內，並強調大C是衝著我而來，在下真的是莫名其妙，小弟乃收租佬一名，閒時舞文弄墨，將自己投資愚見放在網上，不貽笑大方已經是萬分慶幸，何需要大C出手？「衝著我而來」實在是太言重。

　　既然讀者有提點，於是I send from my I Pad對那位信眾說，「大C所說的是宏觀，作為個人置業與否，應因應個人能力量力而為，或量力而不為，並不能因大C一席話，或一本通書睇到老」。其實，每個人對自己的情況最了解，若心平氣和，心堅意定，每個人都是自己的大C，正是「三十三天天外天，九霄雲外有大C，大C乃是凡人變，只怕凡人志不堅」。

　　各位業主，大C的言論是否正確閣下不用理會，若果樓市真的下跌，閣下亦無能為力，只要閣下維持供款，銀行是不會昂昂然追收差額，此為上策。況且現在利息與租金尚有一段差距，若果擔心，將差額儲蓄起來，以備不時之需。若果不擔心，消費多一些，做一個開心快活人。

　　若果有樓人士堅持說樓市不跌，一定會給一些未置業的人攻擊，說有物業者冷血，為甚麼不讓樓價下跌三成，而讓希望置業的人士上車。其實，這幾年有物業的人已經得盡好處，利息又平，物業又升值，口舌之爭，讓一讓他們便算了。

　　大C見論壇不甚成功，於是打道回道觀，見有一封信，一看，大C亦嚇一驚，業主要加租5成，「他媽的」。

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
... (Mr C here is some stock analyst in HK. Even in stock market, read in forums that some HKers also complaining C's stock analysis is some "reverse indicator"....)

ikan bilis

21-01-12, 18:47

(BizTimes, sgp) Published January 21, 2012

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Secondary market deals shrink last year

Surge in new supply at developer launches from earlier land sales sends buyers flocking to primary market

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

THE percentage of private homes purchased in the primary market, that is, from developers, increased last year while conversely the proportion bought in the secondary market declined.

This comes as buyers found a bigger hunting ground at developers' launches arising from the step-up in land sales since 2010.

Analysts also point to another advantage of picking up an uncompleted property from a new project: Payment to the developer is spread over a few years according to the stage of the project's completion, compared with having to fork out the entire purchase price upfront when buying a completed property in the secondary market. This would appeal especially to specuvestors.

Some market watchers also say the seller's stamp duty, which is aimed at discouraging short-term property trading, has shrunk the pool of properties available for sale in the subsale market, again shrinking the secondary market's share of deals.

Credo Real Estate's analysis of URA caveats data shows that out of a total of 29,094 caveats lodged for private home purchases (excluding executive condos) last year, 43.3 per cent were from the primary market, up from a 38.8 per cent share in 2010.

The secondary market - which covers resales (involving sales of projects that are completed, that is, which have received Certificate of Statutory Completion, or CSC) and subsales (involving projects without CSC) - saw the volume of deals shrinking 26.7 per cent last year, and sending the secondary market's share sliding from 61.2 per cent in 2010 to 56.7 per cent last year.

Mapping the primary and secondary market shares against land sales all the way back to the 1990s, Credo concluded that a major reason for increases in proportion of primary market sales is the surge of primary market new supply, especially after active periods of Government Land Sales (GLS) and collective sales.

'In response to the buoyant market in the mid-90s, we saw active GLS and en bloc sales between 1994 and 1997, and this led to increasing primary market share while secondary market proportion declined up to 1998,' observes Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui.

'Declining land sales in 1997 and its absence in 1998 reduced primary market share in 1999/2000 but a pick-up of land sales in 1999/2000 caused primary market share to increase in 2001/02.

'Subdued land sales from 2001 to 2005 resulted in falling primary market share between 2003 and 2008.'

For 2008, the proportion of private homes sold in the primary market plunged to a low of 30.2 per cent.

Although land sales picked up in 2006/07, 2008 was a bad year with many launches held back.

'However, a resumption of new project sales in 2009 saw the primary market share increasing. And of course the robust GLS and en bloc sale market recovery in 2010 contributed to a further increase in primary market share in 2011,' commented Mr Ong.

He also offers a reason for property specuvestors to favour buying a unit in a new project from a developer rather than a completed property in the secondary market.

'The revised seller's stamp duty (SSD) imposed in January 2011 could also have led some investors to prefer primary market properties where they minimise their capital exposure due to progress payments. Also by the time the property is completed in about three years, they would be penalised only by a relatively small 4 per cent SSD if they sell in the fourth year, or escape it altogether if they hold a bit longer,' said Mr Ong. This would appeal to someone who does not want to have to find a tenant for a newly completed property, he added.

A developer says the SSD regime has caused the supply of properties available for sale in the secondary market, especially in the subsale market, to shrink.

The SSD is set at 16, 12, 8 and 4 per cent for those who buy a private home from Jan 14, 2011 and sell it within the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively.

The developer reckons the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD), which took effect on Dec 8 last year, will also dry up secondary market transactions. 'A foreigner who's not a Singapore permanent resident may not want to give up his existing property here because if he buys another property in Singapore, he would have to pay a 10 per cent ABSD on it,' he explains.

'The ABSD and SSD have changed the dynamics of the willing buyer-willing seller interaction,' he added. 'Shrinking volumes in the secondary market aren't a good thing because interior designers, renovation contractors, agents doing home leasing will all be affected.'

DTZ's Southeast Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah expects the primary market share of private home purchases to continue to increase vis-a-vis the secondary market, pointing to a still substantial quantum of new homes launched by developers on sites acquired from the GLS programme. 'Those who've bought properties (after Jan 13, 2011) will be subject to the SSD, which reduces the availability of properties for sale in the secondary market.'

Laguna

22-01-12, 11:07

Does anyone knows what is the transacted prices of those condos above the Kowloon mtr station? The location where W hotel is located right after the tunnel to hong kong island?

Is that west Kowloon?

yes, that is West Kowloon, u can find the transacted price

http://hk.centadata.com/paddresssearch1.aspx?type=district17&code=202
but Master Piece and Coronation are not above the Kowloon station/
Coronation just launched, and sales were good

There were couple of real firesales lately at the Kowloon station but also got units done at sky high price

http://forum.hkpropertycity.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=46108&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=760

maisonjai

23-01-12, 00:45

QE3 May Come in April, Credit Suisse’s Jersey Says: Tom Keene
By Austen Sherman and Tom Keene Jan 21, 2012

The Federal Reserve may implement a third round of quantitative easing this spring to bolster the economy, according to Credit Suisse Group AG’s Ira Jersey.
“We do think the Fed is going to do another round of asset purchases later in the quarter, probably aiming for April,” Jersey, director of U.S. rates strategy at Credit Suisse in New York, said today in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “We are growing, we just don’t feel prosperous. It is a part of the job of the Fed to assure prosperity, one of the ways to do that is to kick- start housing,”
The policy-making Federal Open Market Committee meets Jan. 24-25. The central bank is forecast to keep its target for the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25 percent. The target has been at that level since December 2008 and the Fed has pledge to keep it there until mid-2013.
The central bank has purchased $2.3 trillion of mortgage and government bonds in two rounds of so-called QE. In September, it announced plans to sell $400 billion of short-term debt and use the proceeds to buy an equal amount of longer- maturity securities, in a program as nicknamed Operation Twist after a similar action in 1961 designed to contain borrowing costs for companies and consumers.

Round Three
Jersey said a third stimulus effort may be more focused toward the housing market and buying mortgage-backed securities.
A Bloomberg news survey conducted in November found 16 of the 21 primary dealers of U.S. government securities said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow policy makers would start another purchasing program during the first half of 2012. The dealers’ estimated that the Fed may buy about $545 billion in home-loan debt.
“We need to get confidence up, in particular business confidence up,” Jersey said. “That would help stimulate jobs, which helps stimulate the residential housing market, and that’s what gets you out of the doldrums.”
The Fed will wait for more economic data before deciding whether more bond buying is merited, the Wall Street Journal reported today. The central bank is planning to announce a revised communications strategy, including more information about interest-rate projections and objectives for inflation and jobs, the report said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-20/qe3-may-come-in-april-credit-suisse-s-jersey-says-tom-keene.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-20/qe3-may-come-in-april-credit-suisse-s-jersey-says-tom-keene.html)

Laguna

23-01-12, 09:02

In HK, the area with the concentration of most expensive properties is around the Repulse Bay area
the psf price can be as high as HK$70,000psf

kane

24-01-12, 16:07

that's a cool $11,500psf. talk about money is no object...

ikan bilis

27-01-12, 11:09

URA 2011Q4 data out liow... go read yourselves... ;)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2012/pr12-08.html

27 January 2012
Private housing price increase continues to slow down in 4Q2011
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the real estate statistics for 4th Quarter 2011.

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES
Prices and Rentals

The rate of price increase has continued to moderate for nine consecutive quarters. Prices of private residential properties increased by 0.2% in 4th Quarter 2011, lower than the 1.3% increase in the previous quarter and is the smallest increase since 3rd Quarter 2009. For the year 2011 as a whole, prices of private residential properties increased by 5.9%, significantly lower than the 17.6% increase in 2010.
All property segments experienced a slower rate of price increases compared to the previous quarter and previous year. Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region (CCR)1 increased 0.5% in 4th Quarter 2011, compared with the 0.7% increase in the previous quarter. For Rest of Central Region2 (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR), prices increased by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively in 4th Quarter 2011, lower than the corresponding increases of 1.2% and 2.1% in the previous quarter (see Annexes A-1 (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a1.pdf), A-2 (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a2.pdf), A-6 (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a6.pdf) & A-7 (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a7.pdf)3 ). For the year 2011 as a whole, prices of non-landed properties increased by 4.0% in CCR, 4.5% in RCR and 7.7% in OCR, compared with 14.2%, 17.6% and 15.0% respectively in 2010 (see Annexes A-1a (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a1_1.pdf) and A-2 (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a2.pdf)).
Similarly, rentals of private residential properties4 registered a lower rate of increase compared to the previous quarter and year. Rentals increased by 0.4% in 4th Quarter 2011, less than the 0.8% increase in the previous quarter (see Annexes A-3 (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a3.pdf) & A-4 (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a4.pdf)5 ). For the year 2011 as a whole, rentals of private residential properties increased by 3.8%, lower than the 17.9% increase in 2010 (see Annex A-3a (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a3_1.pdf)).

......................

Rosy

27-01-12, 11:21

I am pleasantly surprised that prices did not fall.

I had expected a knee jerk reaction

It is a Quarterly data. So there is a chance that prices did fall in the month of Dec

ikan bilis

27-01-12, 11:24

hdb whole year 2011 cheong-ed 10.7%...

Year : Quarter : Index : % Change from Previous Quarter

2011 IV 190.4 1.7%
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/icons/ecblank.gif;pv55d2e5c4866eb850
III 187.2 3.8%
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/icons/ecblank.gif;pv55d2e5c4866eb850
II 180.3 3.1%
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/icons/ecblank.gif;pv55d2e5c4866eb850
I 174.8 1.6%

2010 IV 172.0 2.5%
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/icons/ecblank.gif;pv55d2e5c4866eb850
III 167.8 4.0%
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/icons/ecblank.gif;pv55d2e5c4866eb850
II 161.3 4.1%
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/icons/ecblank.gif;pv55d2e5c4866eb850
I 155.0 2.8%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p.nsf/PressReleases/7BA9762E5CBE9E404825799100305172?OpenDocument

Release of 4th Quarter 2011 Public Housing Data

Date issued : 27 Jan 2012

This press release provides housing data for the HDB resale and rental market in 4th Quarter 2011.

HDB Resale Market

2HDB’s Resale Price Index (RPI) rose from 187.2 in 3rd Quarter 2011 to 190.4 in the 4th Quarter 2011. This is an increase of 1.7% over the previous quarter (see Annex A (http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/CORPORATE_PR_27012012_Annex%20A/$file/Annexes+A1+&+A2.pdf) http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/INFOWEBICON/$file/icon-pdf.gif (PDF 16KB)). This is the same as the flash estimate released on 3 Jan 2012.

3Resale transactions increased slightly by 0.3%, from 5,903 cases in 3rd Quarter 2011 to 5,921 cases in 4th Quarter 2011. However, the total number of resale transactions in 2011 was 24,633, a decline of 24% over 2010 (see Annex B (http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/CORPORATE_PR_27012012_Annex%20B/$file/Annex+B.pdf) http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/INFOWEBICON/$file/icon-pdf.gif (PDF 11KB)).

4The median resale prices and Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) amounts in the various towns are tabulated in Annexes C (http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/CORPORATE_PR_27012012_Annex%20C/$file/Annex+C.pdf) http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/INFOWEBICON/$file/icon-pdf.gif (PDF 17KB) and D (http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/CORPORATE_PR_27012012_Annex%20D/$file/Annex+D.pdf) http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/INFOWEBICON/$file/icon-pdf.gif (PDF 17KB).

...................

ikan bilis

28-01-12, 08:08

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC120128-0000055/Private-home-market-has-peaked--Analysts

Private home market has peaked: Analysts

URA residential priceindex up 0.2% in Q4; pace of increase the weakest since Q3 2009

04:46 AM Jan 28, 2012

SINGAPORE - The rise in private home prices in Singapore slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter last year, with property analysts saying the data showed that the market had peaked as they forecast prices to fall 5 to 10 per cent this year.

While the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) said yesterday its private residential property price index hit a new record high of 206.2 in the fourth quarter, the rise was a mere 0.2 per cent from the previous three months, compared with the third quarter's 1.3 per cent rise. The pace of increase, marking the weakest showing since the third quarter of 2009, was the same as the URA's preliminary estimates released on Jan 3.

For last year as a whole, prices of private homes rose 5.9 per cent, significantly lower than the 17.6 per cent increase in 2010, according to the URA.

Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer at property consultancy ERA Realty Network, said the slowdown of the price rise cannot be solely attributed to the additional buyers' stamp duties (ABSD) of between 3 and 10 per cent, as these were only introduced from Dec 8.

"Unfavourable global market conditions have started to affect market sentiment in the last quarter of 2011," he said.

He added: "The slowdown in price increase could also indicate high liquidity and cheap housing loans have become less effective in driving market demand as property price increases have outpaced wage increments."

ERA is of the view that private home prices had peaked in 4Q 2011, saying that the ample supply of uncompleted properties in the pipeline, including an estimated 2,900 executive condominiums that can be yielded from the first half 2012 Government Land Sales programme, as well as global economic uncertainties would likely cause the market to ease in the coming months.

At the end of the fourth quarter, there was a total supply of 77,089 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline, the highest ever recorded. Of these, 39,184 units remained unsold, the URA said.

Property consultancy PropNex said that market cooling measures imposed last year - including the ABSD, the lower loan-to-value ratio cap of 60 per cent to individuals with one or more housing loans, the extended minimum holding period for sellers' stamp duty (SSD) to four years, and SSD as high as 16 per cent - had encouraged more home buyers to adopt a mid-to-long-term view for their property purchase.

For this year, PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail is forecasting an overall 5 to 8 per cent decline in prices for private homes in the core central region. Mass market condominiums in the outside central region should see a 3 to 5 per cent dip, as new developments in this area are launched at prices that are sensitive to the cooler market sentiment, he said. For the overall private home market, Mr Ismail expects a 5 per cent dip this year.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior manager of Research and Consultancy at property consultancy DWG, said the market could ease around 10 per cent this year, noting that prices "are showing signs of peaking in 4Q 2011, (with) the decreasing rate of appreciation evident across all property types and localities". AGENCIES

DKSG

28-01-12, 10:03

Hopefully these analysts are correct for once, then we can all get our next properties at lower prices.

Since they predicted 30% decrease after CM5, I sort of lost faith in these so-called analysts. They just want to gain fame when media publish their stories. But by telling everybody that it has peaked, at least more buyers will be unwilling to pay higher than last done.

But any reasons for sellers to be motivated to sell 10% below last done (or valuation) ? I seriously doubt leh. Though I also hope many will la!

DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool

DC33_2008

28-01-12, 10:12

How much drop will a buyer re-enter the market to buy again after incurring cost like agent commission, penalty of early capital repayment of bank loan, etc, in selling the previous unit? 10%, 20%, 30% correction?

Arcachon

28-01-12, 14:07

that's a cool $11,500psf. talk about money is no object...

The old man say it in 26 June 2010 and I quote “Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it. And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos,”

He got lot more data input then any of us in the forum.

http://www.tremeritus.com/2010/06/26/lee-kuan-yew-forecasts-no-property-bubble-in-singapore-yet/

ikan bilis

28-01-12, 17:37

(BizTimes, sgp)

Published January 28, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Private property prices and rentals at standstill
Q4 data hints that market may have peaked; secondary-market volumes are slowing down

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(Singapore)
PRICE rises for private homes almost ground to a halt last quarter while rental increases also tapered off. The latest official data has sparked a discussion in property circles on whether the market has peaked.

Most observers say that either the peak has already been touched, or will be touched very soon.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's benchmark private home price index inched up just 0.2 per cent quarter on quarter (q-o-q) in Q4 last year, its ninth consecutive quarter of moderation. For the full year, the index's 5.9 per cent rise was a third of the 17.6 per cent gain registered in 2010. The figures were identical to flash estimates released on Jan 3.

And for the first time since Q3 2009, the increase in URA's landed property sub-index was lower than that for the non-landed property sub-index. The landed sub-index rose just 0.1 per cent q-o-q in Q4 2011, compared with 0.3 per cent for the non-landed sub-index. In fact, for semi-detached houses, the price index actually fell 0.6 per cent q-o-q in Q4.

'In that quarter, prices of semi-detached houses in the east fell 1.6 per cent while those in the north-east softened by 1.3 per cent. This shows that some segments of the landed market are facing stronger price resistance,' says Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui. 'However, landed prices have risen 80 per cent from the market trough in Q2 2009, outperforming the 48 per cent increase for non-landed for the same period.'

URA's overall rental index for private homes rose 0.4 per cent q-o-q in Q4, or half the 0.8 per cent rise it had posted in Q3. Full year 2011, the index was up 3.8 per cent - a fraction of the 17.9 per cent gain it had put on in 2010.

The outlook for private home prices looks bleak. CBRE predicts a price drop of 5-15 per cent this year, with luxury/prime properties taking the bigger hit and mass-market homes being the least affected.

Credo's Mr Ong says: 'It's difficult for prices to regain momentum as the recently imposed ABSD (additional buyer's stamp duty) and the economic slowdown could ease demand. Sustained supply and competition among sellers will also keep a lid on prices.'

Giving a different take, Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong said: 'We still believe it's difficult to conclude if we've reached an inflexion point, if any at all.'

Mr Cheong cites the oligopolistic nature of the Singapore residential property market, with large developers with deep pockets who're likely to resist any price cut. 'A cocktail of low interest rates till at least late-2014 (as pledged by the US Federal Reserve) and higher inflation will in due course reignite another round of interest in the residential market as it's deemed a good hedge against inflation,' he said.

Credo's Mr Ong paints two scenarios. 'In the best-case scenario, if the economic slowdown is milder than expected, then buying sentiment may remain positive, translating to sustained buying activity which will help to keep prices stable amid the build-up in supply. In the worst-case scenario, if there's a recession, we can expect demand to slacken, creating downward pressure on prices.'

Lamenting the difficulty in making accurate predictions, Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said: 'Each time after the government has announced cooling measures in the past two years, I thought the measures would be sufficient to cool the market. But things have turned out to be otherwise.'

He admits that the ABSD will have some effect in curbing investment and foreign demand for private homes. 'Prices will come down - but to what degree before they go up again? What's the alternative for people with savings? Where should they put their money? If you believe in the longer term, property is as good a bet as any. After all, interest rates are expected to stay low for the next couple of years.'

Price declines could be exacerbated by the secondary market, where volumes have slowed down more sharply than in the primary market (that is, developer sales). The number of units (excluding executive condos, or ECs) sold by developers fell 2.4 per cent from 16,292 units in 2010 to 15,904 units in 2011. However, the number of homes sold in the secondary market (resales and subsales combined) slipped 27.6 per cent, from 22,608 in 2010 to 16,357 in 2011.

Developers are wooing buyers with nice showflats and appealing ad pitches. The ease of stretching out progress payments over a few years - compared with having to pay the full price upfront when buying a completed home in the secondary market - is another reason to buy a home directly from a developer.

DTZ's Asia Pacific research head Chua Chor Hoon said: 'When secondary volumes come down, eventually it will affect prices. If demand slows down and sellers find it hard to sell after a few months hanging on to their prices, some owners will start to reduce prices. There will be more bargaining power for buyers as well as occupiers as rents start to ease.'

URA stats also show that developers completed 12,469 private homes (excluding ECs), up 19.9 per cent from the 10,399 in 2010. This has begun to weigh on residential rents, which are rising at a slower rate.

Savills Singapore expects a 'mild correction' of 5 per cent in rentals this year as more new apartments come on stream in the months ahead. It also expects the number of private residential leasing deals (excluding ECs) to hover around 45,000 in 2012, after hitting an all-time high of 45,062 leases last year. The figure for 2010 was 41,573.

'The strong 2011 showing may be attributed to Singapore becoming the preferred location among MNCs for their regional HQs. This has also attracted more senior and top executives to relocate here,' said Savills' residential leasing head Patrick Lai.

DTZ's Ms Chua said rental pressure is greater in Core Central Region but this is likely to shift to Outside Central Region in three to four years due to expected completion of projects in suburban areas arising from the ramp-up in Government Land Sales since the second half of 2010.

ikan bilis

30-01-12, 11:03

Haha... ok,,ok,,.... crash liow... :banana: :character0029:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NUS-SRPI for Dec 2011

SRPI Overall 169.2 -0.8%
SRPI Central (excluding small units) 169.2 -0.4%
SRPI Non-Central (excluding small units) 172.4 -1.0%
SRPI Small Units 168.6 3.4%

http://www.ires.nus.edu.sg/webapp/srpi/SRPI_Main.aspx

phantom_opera

30-01-12, 11:21

CCR

30-01-12, 15:01

Contrary to what analyst is shouting... i believe OCR will drop more than CCR...

Nobody in CCR will sell if they can hold on to it...

Just like developers.... quickly sell OCR for cash flow and profit but dont bother to launch their CCR development...

teddybear

30-01-12, 15:15

Why developers not selling CCR at discount hah? :simmering:

Contrary to what analyst is shouting... i believe OCR will drop more than CCR...

Nobody in CCR will sell if they can hold on to it...

Just like developers.... quickly sell OCR for cash flow and profit but dont bother to launch their CCR development...

CCR

30-01-12, 15:30

Why developers not selling CCR at discount hah? :simmering:

Coz land in prime district hard to come by... GLS unlimited...
once sold developers cannot buy it back unless they pay high prices so they rather keep and sell only when it reaches the prices it deserve...

Actually if prices in CCR drop a lot, most people will quickly liquidate their HDB and OCR properties and buy in CCR....

No matter how much Stalingrad shouts about how good OCR is, obviously the developers are not listening to him.... either the developers are all dumb or Stalin is a genius, you all decide...

ikan bilis

31-01-12, 16:53

(BizTimes, sgp) Published January 31, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif

Small apartment prices climb 11.8% in 2011
Larger units in Central Region up 5.7%; those elsewhere up 11.7%

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Prices for small apartments islandwide as well as for larger apartments outside the Central Region rose about twice as fast as prices of larger apartments in the Central Region last year. This trend, while similar to the one in 2010, was more pronounced last year.

According to flash estimates released by the National University of Singapore for its Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) series, the sub-index for small apartments islandwide (up to 506 square feet) rose 11.8 per cent for the whole of 2011.

The sub-index for Non-Central Region (excluding small apartments) climbed 11.7 per cent while that for Central Region (excluding small apartments) increased 5.7 per cent in 2011. Central Region comprises Districts 1-4 (which includes the financial district and Sentosa Cove) and the traditional prime residential districts of 9, 10 and 11. The overall SRPI rose 9.2 per cent last year.

For 2010, the sub-index for small apartments gained 13.8 per cent and that for the Non-Central Region (excluding small apartments) climbed 14.9 per cent. The Central Region sub-index (excluding small units) was up 7.7 per cent. The overall SRPI rose 11.7 per cent.

For the month of December compared with the preceding month, only the small apartments sub-index posted a gain (3.4 per cent). The sub-indices for the Central and Non-Central regions dipped 0.4 per cent and one per cent respectively, taking the overall index down by 0.8 per cent.

SRPI tracks prices of completed private apartments and condos, excluding executive condos. The current SRPI basket, fixed in December 2009, comprises 363 private residential projects completed from October 1998 to September 2009. NUS's Institute of Real Estate Studies (IRES), which compiles the index, is revising the basket and the new basket will be reflected in the SRPI for January 2012. Among other things, IRES will add some projects completed between October 2009 and September 2011. These projects must have at least 40 units each and be relatively well transacted. At the same, IRES is expected to remove from its basket projects which are over 10 years old.

Urban Redevelopment Authority figures released recently show that developers sold 15,904 private homes in 2011, down 2.4 per cent from the record 16,292 units in 2010. Including ECs - a public-private housing hybrid - developer sales totalled a record 18,787 units in 2011, up 8.3 per cent from 2010.

Some consultants suggest that home buying could come off 10-20 per cent in 2012, given the weaker economy and the recently introduced additional buyer's stamp duty which seeks to cool home buying by investors and foreigners.

However, some market watchers note that going by anecdotal evidence at least, interest remains strong among Singaporeans. 'People say they believe prices are not going to come down too much. They're waiting to buy for upgrading, investment and, in some cases, to provide an annuity for retirement, ie, rental income,' says DTZ South-east Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah. 'While low interest rates are spurring interest in property, buyers are taking a longer-term view - including the limited supply of land in Singapore.'

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng reckons that a price reduction of about 10 per cent may be enough to entice most buyers in the mid and mass markets. 'The high-end still has an oversupply, so a bigger price reduction may be necessary to encourage both local and foreign buying.'

Fragrance Group and World Class Land have sold 181 units at Parc Rosewood condo in Woodlands since Saturday. The average price is $960 per square foot. The five-storey, 99-year leasehold project will have 689 apartments.

A good mix of units - one, two and three bedders - have been taken up. Singaporeans are believed to account for 80-85 per cent of buyers, with permanent residents making up the rest. Buyers comprise singles, young couples, families and investors - some living in the surrounding Woodlands area.

Far East Organization, Fraser Centrepoint and Sekisui House continue to achieve impressive sales at Watertown in Punggol, moving 148 more units over the weekend. They have now sold 744 units in the project since Jan 18. Transacted prices range from $980 psf to $1,500 psf.

So far, 901 of the project's 992 units have been released. The most popular are the one and two-bedroom suites (527-646 sq ft) and the two- and three-bedroom units (904-1,259 sq ft). All 385 suites have been been sold. Ninety per cent of the project's buyers are Singaporeans.

Market watchers credit strong sales to the developers' marketing strategy, offering much-coveted waterfront living integrated with a mall (Waterway Point) and the Punggol MRT Station.

Next to the upcoming Hillview MRT Station, where Far East is developing another mixed-use project, The Hillier, the property giant found buyers for another 26 residential units over the weekend, taking total sales to 386 units. It has released 479 of the project's 528 units. The most popular are one-bedroom Soho-style apartments (506-624 sq ft). Singaporeans account for over 80 per cent of buyers.

Far East also sold 19 units at other projects over the weekend.

teddybear

31-01-12, 17:10

I think the developers are all DEAF! They didn't hear what he said! Luckily they are deaf otherwise they will soon found that they "lose" most of their money and have to keep shouting "CCR Crash! CCR Crash!" in an attempt to chase back their "lost" money! :p

Coz land in prime district hard to come by... GLS unlimited...
once sold developers cannot buy it back unless they pay high prices so they rather keep and sell only when it reaches the prices it deserve...

Actually if prices in CCR drop a lot, most people will quickly liquidate their HDB and OCR properties and buy in CCR....

No matter how much Stalingrad shouts about how good OCR is, obviously the developers are not listening to him.... either the developers are all dumb or Stalin is a genius, you all decide...

Rosy

31-01-12, 18:29

Coz land in prime district hard to come by... GLS unlimited...
once sold developers cannot buy it back unless they pay high prices so they rather keep and sell only when it reaches the prices it deserve...

Actually if prices in CCR drop a lot, most people will quickly liquidate their HDB and OCR properties and buy in CCR....

No matter how much Stalingrad shouts about how good OCR is, obviously the developers are not listening to him.... either the developers are all dumb or Stalin is a genius, you all decide...
partly because GLS is all 99LH and developers are only given 5years time frame. If developers are allowed to hold on to 99LH landbank and top up the lease later on, it will be different.

CCR

31-01-12, 21:10

partly because GLS is all 99LH and developers are only given 5years time frame. If developers are allowed to hold on to 99LH landbank and top up the lease later on, it will be different.

True.....And since there are so many GLS, they will take their time to slowly market the prime CCR coz once sold.... Difficult to find good plot

ikan bilis

02-02-12, 03:21

(BizTimes sgp) Published February 2, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
SMEs blame Reits for growing rental pains

JTC asked to review its current policy of divesting industrial space to private entities

By MINDY TAN

(SINGAPORE) Rising rentals for commercial and industrial space have emerged as a pressing issue for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and the fingers are pointed squarely at the dominance of real estate investment trusts or Reits as landlords.

The Reits' drive to enhance yields and returns for unit holders - which usually translates into rental hikes - have left many SME owners, who feel they have limited alternatives here, fuming.

It has also led to calls - including a recommendation by the newly formed SME Committee - for JTC Corp to review its current policy of divesting industrial space to private entities like Reits and return to its previous role of an industrial landlord, so that it can provide ready and affordable industrial space to SMEs.

'Rentals and capital values of properties are going up, impacting business costs for SME owners and eating into their bottomline,' said Lawrence Leow, chairman of the SME Committee.

According to Abdul Rohim Sarip, president of the Singapore Malay Chamber of Commerce & Industry (SMCCI), rental forms between 40 per cent and 50 per cent of operational costs for small businesses. So the increase in rental costs has had a significant impact on their bottom-line.

'About 40 per cent of these companies (from the retail and manufacturing industries) who seek advisory assistance from EDC@SMCCI have difficulty in sustaining their operational costs and are in need of short-term loans from banks, which is another challenge,' he added.

Noted Low Cheong Kee, managing-director of Home-Fix DIY: 'Reits are commercial entities. They will do what they can to keep upping the rent at every renewal whereas JTC had a national agenda to stabilise rent.'

JTC, a statutory board, oversees the development of industrial infrastructure in Singapore. There is clearly frustration among SME owners. An SME owner who did not wish to be named told BT she is currently in negotiations with her landlord, a Reit trust manager, to renew her lease for an additional three years. The new lease agreement is for $28,000 per month, plus 3 per cent of the store's monthly gross turnover (GTO). She currently pays $17,000 for her 1,000 sq ft unit.

Another SME owner said his rent for a 50,000 sq ft business space in Tuas increased by 56 per cent from $50,000 to $78,000 when he tried to negotiate to renew his lease for eight months.

According to official statistics, rental rates of multiple-user factory space increased 16.2 per cent year on year in 2011, while rental at multiple user warehouse rose 13.3 per cent.

Retail rents also rose on Singapore's success as a world-class shopping and event destination, but are expected to stabilise in 2012 due to a more muted economic outlook and oncoming supply. Average rents at prime Orchard Road malls went up 4.6 per cent year on year last quarter, while those at prime suburban malls edged up 2.2 per cent, according to CBRE Research.

What rankles too is the perception SMEs have that the odds are stacked in favour of the landlords.

Retailers argue that the practice of requiring tenants to reveal their GTO figures gives landlords an unfair advantage when negotiating rents. Said an SME owner: 'The current retail market is unbalanced in favour of landlords . . . (since) in the prime retail spaces, you will find that 80 per cent to 90 per cent of landlords insist that their tenants reveal their monthly sales numbers.'

There is also the problem of landlords working in a clause that allows them to terminate tenancy agreements. 'So even though the lease may be signed for two to three years, and there's no breach of contract, landlords still have the right to terminate the tenancy of the tenant simply because the landlord feels that another tenant might be able to bring in a better image, sales, or rental . . . So your future is never secure,' he said.

Greenpac's chief executive Susan Chong not only had the plus-two-years clause of her lease terminated following the sale of her factory building to a Reit, but is also unable to negotiate a renewal on her existing lease with the new owner. According to Ms Chong, she has been trying to arrange for a lease renewal since October last year. Her lease expires in April.

Her frustration is palpable, given that she only requires the space for an additional eight months. 'I'm currently building my own factory so I'm asking that they either allow me to rent for an additional eight months, or a year,' she said. While she will only require the facilities for the next eight months, she is willing to renew the lease for a whole year, she emphasised. But thus far, the landlord's response to requests to negotiate has been a firm no, citing potential tenants who are looking to lease the property for a minimum three-year term.

Reit managers are quick to point out that rents are a function of market forces, and that they are simply looking to achieve market rates. They say tenants have a choice as to where to locate their business and it would be impossible for Reits to charge rental rates above what the market can bear and what other landlords are charging.

'Industrial Reits collectively own about 15.8 per cent (about six million sqm) of the total stock of about 38.2 million sqm of industrial property stock as at 2011. Are they able to dictate rental rates?' asked an Ascendas Funds Management spokesperson rhetorically.

'Recent media headlines of high percentage increase in rental rate in certain segments of the industrial property market is a result of catching-up to market rent level as a result of the change from public to private ownership,' the spokesperson added.

According to a CapitaMall Trust Management Ltd spokesperson, rental reversions for malls in CMT's portfolio averaged 2.1 per cent a year in the last two years.

'In that same period, our tenants' sales have increased even faster - by more than 6 per cent a year - showing that our tenants continue to do well in our malls,' it added, crediting its strong track record in asset enhancement, which has helped increase shopper traffic and thus tenants' sales.

Still, business owners look back to the time when JTC was a benevolent landlord. Allen Ang, group managing director of Aldon Technologies Services, pointed out that JTC initiated a rent reduction of 15 per cent during the 2009 financial crisis.

Rent now makes up about 11 per cent of the group's overhead costs. 'This is a substantial sum in an operation like ours. Considering our operations/business and industry norms, ideally the rents should stay at around 7 per cent to 8 per cent,' Mr Ang said.

He has signed a third lease for a three-year term, from 2010 to 2013. The monthly rent for year one is $40,295, while monthly rent for year two is $43,498, a year-on-year increase of 8 per cent.

The SME Committee's recommendation for JTC to review its role is an attempt to address these issues. A second recommendation calls for a one-off grant to help relocate SMEs with low value-added activities to lower-cost countries.

The recommendations, among others, will be presented to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Trade and Industry ahead of Budget 2012.

hyenergix

02-02-12, 06:10

JTC awards properties to Soilbuild and Mapletree
Jul 4, 2011 - CommercialGuru.com.sg

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2011/7/30693/jtc-awards-properties-to-soilbuild-and-mapletree

JTC Corporation (JTC), one of Singapore’s leading industrial infrastructure specialists, has announced that it will be divesting two tranches of its properties to Soilbuild Group Holdings Ltd and Mapletree Industrial Trust for a total of S$688,628,000 as part of the second phase of its divestment activity.

These divestments will comprise a total of more than 300,000 sq m of property space.

Consisting of 10 blocks of flatted factories and amenity centres, the first tranche will be sold to Soilbuild Group at an indicative price of S$288,328,000.

Meanwhile, the second tranche, which comprises 11 blocks of flatted factories and amenity centres, will be divested to Mapletree Industrial Trust for S$400,300,000.

“The aim of JTC’s divestment exercise is to promote competitiveness and vibrancy in the industrial property market so that existing and prospective tenants may benefit from more options and choices,” said Manohar Khiatani, Chief Executive Officer of JTC.

“The market for ready built facilities in particular is sufficiently mature with active private sector developers to promote a strong competition in the industrial property market. In this 2nd phase of our divestment exercise, we are happy that we received quality proposals from major industry players.”

He added, “Soilbuild Group Holdings and Mapletree Industrial Trust were selected after a rigorous two-stage tender process. Both are established players with a good understanding of the Singapore industrial property market.”

To contact the journalist, you may send your message to [email protected]

Mapletree is 100% owned by Temasek Holdings. Aim is to benefit tenants :2cents:

ecimbew

02-02-12, 06:20

Didn't SMEs know JTC's mission has changed? JTC is now all about planning and developing innovative industrial landscape.

Ascendas is part of Singapore state-owned industrial landlord JTC Corp. It manages offices and industrial parks.

It's investment unit is called A-REIT.

http://areit-cn.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20110608_173020_A17U_E3AFECE840C03EB8482578A90033E974.1.pdf

ikan bilis

02-02-12, 11:35

http://news.mingpao.com/20120202/lam1.htm

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

基金經理黃國英﹕買樓勝算高水位有限

【明報專訊】知名基金經理、豐盛金融資產管理董事黃國英，向以投資手法靈活見稱，每每長短線同時出擊，更是不限長倉、短倉（沽空），而成績也相當可人。

他接受訪問時表示，有本事的，要在金融市場發達不難，但一般人則是較容易在物業市場賺錢，並總括出﹕「買股票賠率高、成功率低，買樓則賠率低、成功率高」，買樓少有令人變得超級富有，但投資風險也較低。

首次置業買夾屋輸錢售回房協

在股票市場上獲利甚豐的黃國英坦言，自己炒股回報高，加上以前一直與母親居住在旺角，因此不感買樓的迫切性，於97年婚後才首次置業，就是在沙田買了一個夾屋單位，遇上金融風暴輸光成副身家，幸而懂得「壯士斷臂」將夾屋售回予房協，不然輸得更慘烈。黃國英表示，這個沉痛教訓令他明白，不可抱中國人傳統思想——「一定要有樓」，該次經歷與現時市相類似，建議入市要看價錢，亦要謹慎選擇物業類型，「夾屋冇exit（離場）渠道，對特殊屋resell（轉售）能力需要考慮！」

買愉景灣收租好升值慢

第二次買入位處離島區的愉景灣之經驗，則令黃國英明白選擇物業區域的重要性，他在2004年購入愉景灣，現時作收租之用，每年淨袋20萬元租金，「收租就係一個唔錯選擇，但for capi (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_News2KW(635);)tal gain（資本盈利）就唔好，如果我當時買貝沙灣就贏多好多」，所以有心買樓，要小心選擇物業區域，以免因位置偏僻而難於轉售。

時下年輕人愛揀新樓，但一手樓入伙時卻容易面臨租售困難。早前黃國英一手買入九龍塘新樓尚御，「個盤入住率兩成都冇，80幾個單位得10幾個入住，無論租或者resell都唔係咁容易，短期要消化（放盤）壓力 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_News2KW(645);)先得」，黃打算將物業出租，但預期要短期內租出不是易事，笑言若買京士柏二手樓君頤峰，租賃會比較易。

買新盤注意轉售出租不易

他總結，「因為太多人類似你咁，新盤市場好crowded（擁擠）」，炒家比例太高，例如尚御有八成業主競爭，甫入伙市場即湧現大批放盤，租金及買賣價都有壓力，當炒家、投機者主導市場，「個市會繼續上的空間有限，只可以平放租」，所以新樓未必適合希望在短時間內租出或沽售物業的業主。在購入尚御之時，本打算自住，但當時樓盤仍未入伙，因此在薄扶林購入一個單位自住，現在住慣了薄扶林的單位，已不打算遷出，並指該單立有被鄰近樓盤發展商收購重建的潛質。

炒股八成人輸買樓八成人贏

專注於股票市場的黃國英坦言，自己不會視物業為增加財富的主要工具，因為他的資產絕大部分投放於股市，「樓只係用park住錢（停泊資金），會focus（聚焦）股市多，我唔係好緊樓，只係我的asset allocation（資產配置）的一部分」。黃續稱，對一般投資者來說，買樓是「storage of wealth（財富的儲存）」，「香港人大部分得財富，好多時都係靠物業，炒股票有八成幾人係輸，買樓係有八成幾人係贏」，因為股票市場較虛無，樓市「衰極有個譜」，因此不諳股市的人，可以樓市作為資產配置。

有人會選擇在樓市賺得第一桶金，然後套現再在股票市場中滾大，黃國英不建議賣樓買股票，因為「（炒賣）股票難度高，唔明白股票係生意，（上市公司）有機會滅亡」，由於做生意的入門門檻降低，公司能賺錢的日子大為縮短，「（將股票）放度唔理會好大劑，所以要睇得好緊」，所以在股市中掘金的技術要求和壓力，均較買樓大；反觀樓市是實物，有實際需求，投資樓市不至一無所有。他說，總括而言，買股票賠率高、成功率低，買樓則賠率低、成功率高，買樓少有令人變得超級富有，但投資風險相對低。

樓市大彈機會微上車宜等等

近期二手住宅買賣零星，黃國英從需求上分析，預期樓市在短期內大彈機會不大。他認為，首次置業人士應抱wait-and-see attitude（觀望態度），不論唐英年 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_News2KW(2);)或梁振英 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_News2KW(432);)當選新特首，相信也會推出針對幫助上車人士的政策，所以毋須急於入市。

至於換樓客，黃指現時受到按揭收緊及息口上升的因素影響，換樓變得困難，成交量自然偏少。內地資金會否繼續流入港樓市，則視乎內地政策，加上現時港樓不像從前升得熱烘烘，「好懷疑內地客需求仲會唔會咁勁，因人民幣升值，若香港樓價不升，以人民幣計價，內地客其實已蝕了錢」。

既然樓市暫時難有起色，應否轉買地產股呢？黃國英指早前地產股低殘，經過一輪升市，現時也不太吸引，加上地產股不單純跟市場走，當中涉及管理等因素，所以一般投資者寧可買樓。

買樓儲首期可買REITs

不少人在未有足夠首期買樓錢，會先投資，希望可賺得首期買樓。黃國英認為，地產股，尤其有「紙地產」之稱的REITs（房地產信託基金），會是可儲首期的投資選擇。

黃指出，REITs表現與地產表現相關，且有對冲通脹之效，如領匯的租金是往往跟通脹走，去年的升幅達17%。地產好市時，REITs也會升值，令儲得的「首期」也水漲船高，若市道不景，REITs的股價跌了，但樓價也跌了，「首期」縮水也不怕。

選擇REITs也要親力親為，下多點功夫，譬如到商場視察，減低「中招」機會，例如有商場連電話網絡也接收不到，升值潛力自然也有限。另外，也要花時間了解公司的財政狀況及派息表現，留意商戶組合。然而，買REITs始終較投資商場舖位容易，因賣散商場業權分散，難以為商場增加價值，如想舉辦一次大型活動，也需要眾多業權持有人同意兼夾錢，並非易事。

記97教訓跌市要知止蝕

投資除了要懂得看市場大勢，更涉及心理上的交戰，否則很易「一鋪清袋」。黃指出，聰明人最容易在金融市場上找到第一桶金，但提醒在股票市場上炒賣要小心，他自己曾在97年輸掉所有財產，但經歷過失敗，令他明白贏錢是虛無之物，所以不可因心雄而忘掉止賺，跌市更要懂得止蝕。

撰文﹕鄒凱 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_News2KW(371);)婷、陸振球

ikan bilis

03-02-12, 09:39

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120203-0000065/Secondary-market-for-private-homes-heading-for-doldrums

:beats-me-man:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Secondary market for private homes heading for doldrums

by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Feb 03, 2012

The secondary market for private homes is shrinking. Of that, there is no doubt. The trend has been clear since the second half of 2010, but what is unnerving is the rate at which demand is shrinking.

Official figures show that the number of resale and sub-sale deals have fallen by more than a quarter last year compared to 2010. Their market share of total sales has also fallen to about 57 per cent from 61 per cent in 2010.

Many property watchers have pointed to the revised seller's stamp duty (SSD) imposed in January last year as the primary cause of the decline. They say it may have channelled more purchases towards units offered at project launches. Likewise, they say, the situation is going to get worse following the introduction of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) in December last year.

With the ABSD, foreigners have to pay a duty of 10 per cent on top of the existing buyer's stamp duty of about 3 per cent. Permanent residents who buy a second and subsequent residential property will pay 3 per cent more in stamp duty. Singaporeans who already have two residential properties will have to pay the extra 3 per cent on their third and subsequent home purchases.

With respect to the SSD, those buying a private home on or after Jan 14 last year have to pay a duty of 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent if they sell the property within the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase, respectively.

Analysts say the majority of investors prefer to buy uncompleted properties at project launches as they can minimise their capital exposure with progress payments. Also, by the time the property is completed in about three to four years, they would be hit only by a relatively small 4 per cent SSD, if at all.

Yet others say the higher number of project launches and wider range of properties offered may have diverted buyers' attention away from the secondary market.

Both are valid arguments.

But most investors have a preference for either uncompleted or completed properties. Only a small proportion invests in both.

Also, the sales at project launches did not show any significant increase. Rather, sales in the primary market have held firm while those in the secondary market have plunged.

So, if not the revised SSD, what could have caused the slump?

While we may disagree on the extent, most of us would agree that the majority of buyers at project launches today are predominantly investors. The majority of upgraders or owner-occupiers would have been priced out of the primary market by now.

If they are still looking to buy private homes, they would most probably be viewing the completed ones. However, the falling sales seem to suggest that this group of buyers may also be fast disappearing from the secondary market.

Besides the imposition of the SSD, what else was new last year that could have triggered the decline in sales?

Last year was the first full year that executive condominiums (ECs) made their presence felt again in the non-HDB housing market. There were more than 2.7 times the number of ECs sold last year than in 2010.

For the first time in a very long time, a third alternative had emerged for upgraders and owner occupiers - apart from just choosing between units offered at project launches and those in the secondary market. If we include ECs in the analysis, it is obvious where the demand has shifted to.

The raising of the monthly income ceiling to purchase new ECs from S$10,000 to S$12,000 on Aug 15 last year may have accelerated the swing in demand to ECs.

The recent announcement that the number of EC sites to be sold in the first half of this year would be raised to six, with five on the Government's Confirmed List, also does not bode well for the secondary market for private homes.

Sites expected to yield 3,500 EC units will be made available in 1H2012, including five on the Confirmed List that will yield 3,000 EC units. This Confirmed List quantum is comparable to the 3,000 EC units from five sites sold for the whole of last year.

Some may question the sharp increase in supply of ECs and ask whether there is enough demand to sustain sales. My own feeling is that with this swing in demand, there will be more than enough demand to absorb the increased supply.

I fear investors may find it increasingly difficult to dispose of their completed properties from this year onwards unless prices at launches resume their climb, which may alter the dynamics between the different markets yet again.

But what are the chances of this happening?

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

ikan bilis

03-02-12, 09:44

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120203-0000067/Wave-of-supply-to-hit-property-market

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Wave of supply to hit property market

by Ku Swee Yong
Updated 09:30 AM Feb 03, 2012

Fourth-quarter data released last Friday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) point to a massive, unprecedented wave of upcoming supply in the residential, commercial and industrial segments, sounding a clear warning to investors who may have entered the market recently at high prices.

RESIDENTIAL OVERHANG

Four quarters ago, the expected private home completions for last year and this year were 8,430 and 8,116 units, respectively. As we can see from Chart 1, we ended last year with 12,469 units completed, 48 per cent higher than the number published four quarters ago. The number for this year has also been revised upwards to 13,308 units, about 64 per cent higher than the 8,116 we were told to expect last year.

Let's examine the data in Table 1. Included in the expected 31,001 units that are expected to obtain TOP (temporary occupation permit) in 2015 are 9,501 units that were already under construction in 4Q2011. To have 9,501 units taking another up to four years to complete is unlikely. Most residential projects are completed between 24 and 36 months after piling begins. Therefore, the bulk of the 9,501 units should be completed in 2013 or 2014.

Looking ahead, we can expect the completion of residential projects to be ahead of schedule, i.e. the wave of supply will hit us sooner. This time round, the avalanche of supply might coincide with a faltering global economy amid weak occupier demand. Investors should seriously take these "earlier-than-expected supplies" into consideration before making their investments.

The rate of vacancy of private homes have already crept up from 5 per cent (or 12,883 units) at the end of 2010 to 5.9 per cent (15,980 units) last December. The imminent flood of supply will likely push this higher.

DEVELOPER'S APPETITE

The oft-heard counter-argument goes like this: There's nothing to worry about because most of these units have been pre-sold by developers way before TOP is obtained. In the last few weeks, despite the introduction of the fifth round of cooling measures with the Additional Buyers' Stamp Duty, we saw rapid take-up at developers' mass-market projects such as Watertown in Punggol and The Hillier in Hillview.

Backed by a fast pace of pre-sales, developers have also rushed to replenish their land banks. The Government Land Sales (GLS) programme is well subscribed, or over-subscribed in the case of choice sites connected by transportation infrastructure or rare sites such as the plot for landed homes in Chestnut Avenue. Since early 2010, developers have actively tendered for residential land parcels and turning around the projects for launch within nine months - and even the introduction of repeated sets of cooling measures did not dampen the number of bidders for each tender.

From Table 2, the developers' appetites seem insatiable because they are backed by the fast pace of pre-sales at launch and, therefore, the GLS must keep rolling on. Because, as the rationale goes, increasing land supplies can lead to a cooling of prices. Perhaps. Perhaps not.

OTHER PROPERTY SEGMENTS

Table 3 shows the current total stock, including public sector stock, of floor space in the commercial and industrial segments. In each segment, the proportion of the upcoming supply versus the current available floor space is around 15 per cent, with the Business Park segment seeing the fattest pipeline of supply at 33 per cent of current stock.

Given the weakening macro- economic environment, market analysts are revising downwards the rental values for these segments. Vacancy rates are also expected to increase as the pace of business expansion slows on the back of the strong supply.

PAIN LIES AHEAD

The flood of supply seems to be sweeping across almost all segments. While holding power is strong today due to low interest rates, real estate valuations may deteriorate quickly once the macro-economic environment collapses, causing pain especially to the recent investors who have bought high.

Ku Swee Yong is the chief executive of real estate agency International Property Advisor and author of Real Estate Riches - Understanding Singapore's Property Market in a Volatile Economy.

bargain hunter

03-02-12, 11:41

Colin and Swee Yong every friday try to talk down market on TODAY? :D

smarian

05-02-12, 13:54

peterng8

05-02-12, 14:22

Colin and Swee Yong every friday try to talk down market on TODAY? :D

this is the very first few times I see both of them concurring with each other's view...:o

DC33_2008

05-02-12, 15:36

Garment just needs to turn on the FT and PR taps. I am sure KBW is working closely with Manpower Ministry.
It will be a tsunami

Laguna

05-02-12, 20:51

I hv tracked Ku's talks and opinion since 2005/6, he uses many numbers, but one must be very careful on his calls
He is now moving his clients to London.

ikan bilis

06-02-12, 16:55

where is minister kbw.... consultants see your CM5 "no-up" hor.... can you please bring out your big gun... :scared-2:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(BizTimes, sgp) Published February 6, 2012

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
ABSD only a temporary deterrent: consultants
Rental properties benefit as expats wait for clarity, look out for good buys

By MICHELLE TAN

(SINGAPORE) The additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) slapped on foreigners has not stopped expatriates from looking for well-priced buys, say consultants.

Said Jones Lang LaSalle's head of residential and national director Jacqueline Wong: 'International buyers are still looking to buy.'

Ms Wong highlighted that though foreigners have decided to sit on the fence till the second quarter of the year awaiting further clarity, many are still keeping a sharp eye on the market for good buys, pointing to a sustained interest in local properties.

But while they wait, many expatriates who come with families in tow, need a temporary place to stay.

As such, key beneficiaries of this 'waiting game' are seen to be rental properties comprising private homes, serviced residences as well as long stay accommodations.

In fact, some consultants have pointed out that there has been a noticeable pick-up in the rental market post-ABSD, but acknowledged that the cooling measure may not have been the sole driver.

Having said that, The Club at Capella Singapore - a long stay residence situated on Sentosa island - has seen a 'slight but noticeable growth' in inquiries since the ABSD kicked in, though other factors could also be at play - such as the residence's growing brand name in the luxury long stay accommodation industry.

Property agents have also noticed a pick up in rental inquiries from foreigners, especially for larger home units in well-located areas since.

Even serviced residences like Pan Pacific Serviced Suites Singapore say that they are seeing faster take up rates for advance bookings after the measure.

Hartaj Sewa Singh, a resident who has signed a two-year lease agreement at The Club, said that he has always been keen to invest in a property in Singapore as he is here for the long haul. But he has been deterred by headlines harping on the government's efforts to lower property prices.

Mr Singh, who is also a businessman, said that he might buy a home in Singapore when the overall sentiment turns for the better. He feels that many expatriates will buy eventually if they plan to stay in Singapore for the long term.

Furthermore, some developers have gone ahead to absorb part if not all of the additional stamp duty to alleviate the cost burden for foreigners, as well as dish out five-digit furniture vouchers.

Speaking of ABSD, Chia Siew Chuin, director of research & advisory, Colliers International, said: 'Whether the measure will be effective in the medium to longer term will hinge upon a host of factors, including macro-economic conditions as well as the condition of property and investment market in other countries, among others.'

Ms Chia highlighted that if the Singapore property market outperforms its foreign peers and maintains its reputation as a 'safe investment haven', the downside effects of the ABSD would be mitigated and in turn support buying demand.

Said Chua Yang Liang, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle: 'The market, I believe, will eventually find its balance. In the longer term this additional stamp duty will not necessarily deter those genuine foreign buyers. Long term investors local, foreigners and corporate alike, will factor this as part of the overall cost of transaction.'

As such, it seems most feel that ABSD will deter foreigners from buying local properties only temporarily and not forever.

Mr.Keh

06-02-12, 18:28

It will be a tsunami

Interesting articles. Indeed in any phase of the market cycle, one shouldn't loan too much just to buy properties. If really need to loan a lot, then one should loan from hdb. Play safe, if prices crash no need to jump cliff.

DC33_2008

06-02-12, 21:10

Can loan to max to leverage on low interest but make sure there is sufficient fund to make capital repayment when there is a surge in interest rate or requires to top up cash.
Interesting articles. Indeed in any phase of the market cycle, one shouldn't loan too much just to buy properties. If really need to loan a lot, then one should loan from hdb. Play safe, if prices crash no need to jump cliff.

ikan bilis

08-02-12, 04:09

(BizTimes, sgp)Published February 8, 2012http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif

Residential property prices ripe for correction: Credo
But situation could look much brighter if S'pore gets away with mild slowdown

By MICHELLE TAN

THE odds seem stacked against residential property prices in Singapore, historical data compiled by Credo Real Estate shows.

Notably, negative residential price corrections were reflected in the years 2008, 2000 and 1983 following several quarters of price moderation to levels close to zero - a pattern which became apparent in the final quarter of 2011.

Slowing to a meagre 0.2 per cent from 1.3 per cent in the previous quarter, the residential property price index for the fourth quarter of 2011 seemed supportive of the view that current values are nearing their apex.

More worryingly, the fall in prices tended to coincide with periods of negative GDP (gross domestic product) growth or deteriorating economic conditions, which in most cases evolved into recessions.

Said Credo Real Estate's executive director and head of research and consultancy, Ong Teck Hui: 'If a recession occurs this year, it will certainly lead to a correction in the residential market. Even if a recession does not occur this year but economic conditions deteriorate ultimately leading to a recession, the market is also likely to correct.'

The debate over when the correction will take place has been going on for a while, with many analysts arguing that property prices would weaken this year as a result of economic uncertainty, mounting supply and cooling measures by the government. However, the situation could look a lot brighter if Singapore manages to escape with a mild slowdown.

'If economic conditions turn out to be better than expected, we are likely to see a fairly stable market, albeit with uneven performance amongst different market segments and with price adjustments within a narrow range,' said Mr Ong.

In particular, the suburban primary mass market could stay 'relatively healthy' due to firm underlying demand should a recession be averted, though the secondary market, which is experiencing weaker volume, could face a wave of price moderations.

Slower activity in the prime residential segment is also expected as foreign buyers take time to come to terms with the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD).

Alan Shearer

08-02-12, 05:49

Another expert stating the obvious and sitting on the fence.

He forgot to add what happens if economic conditions turn out to be much better than expected.

I.E. prices will continue to rise athrough 2012 as I expect will be the case!

ikan bilis

10-02-12, 07:29

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120210-0000081/Playing-the-waiting-game

=> colin tan asks the bear-bears to tankuku....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Playing the waiting game

by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Feb 10, 2012

It has been nine weeks since the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) on residential property was imposed. Have private home prices made their long-awaited move downwards?

At this week's Singapore Property Analytics Conference 2012, opinion from the floor - comprising mainly property agents - was divided. These are people who interact with buyers and sellers everyday. If prices have come off in a significant way, you would expect them to be among the first to know. Judging from the reaction of the majority, if prices did actually dip, they were probably too small to notice.

Flash estimates of the Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) released by the National University of Singapore a week earlier showed the sub-index for small apartments last December gaining 3.4 per cent from the previous month, while the sub-indices for the Central and Non-Central regions dipped 0.4 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively, taking the overall index down by 0.8 per cent.

Again, I ask: Is this the worst it can get? Can it only get better over time as the market gradually adjusts to the ABSD?

The SRPI tracks prices of completed private apartments and condominiums, excluding Executive Condos. With prices not coming off in a rapid and significant manner despite many days of headlines screaming of a sharp downward correction, the market has turned into a waiting game, with the number of participants growing by the month.

A news report published a few days ago suggested that the 10 per cent ABSD imposed on foreigners had not stopped expatriates from looking for well-priced buys. International buyers are still in the market even as they have been deterred by headlines that they have perceived as harping on the Government's efforts to lower prices.

Property agents quoted said that foreigners decided to sit on the fence to await further clarity in the market. They went on to say that the immediate beneficiary was the rental market comprising private homes, serviced residences, as well as long-stay accommodation.

The agents pointed out that there had been a noticeable pick-up in the rental market activity following the ABSD. I can confirm this. Whether more deals were actually closed or not, I am not sure.

In fact, only two days ago, it was reported that data from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) showed both rental rates per square foot and rental yields had gone up in the Core Central and Rest of Central regions since the implementation of ABSD.

Surprise, surprise. Only about a month ago, every comment on the rental market was negative, with many saying leasing volume for this year was set to drop and rentals were on their way downwards.

Honestly, it is really hard to call the rental market these days as the market is very fluid and very dynamic. It is continually reacting to market trends as reported in the news.

But I do not think that only the expatriates are playing this waiting game. Locals with an appetite for risk are into it as well. Some are selling their only home at the peak of the market just to rent. I also get readers asking me whether they should buy today as many people are advising them to wait.

Ironically, by choosing to rent, this waiting group is giving support to investors who would otherwise have to sell if they cannot lease out their apartments.

Another factor - one that helped support the private housing market last year - is showing up again. Two freehold sites - Crystal Tower and Seletar Garden - were offered for collective sale within days of two other freehold sites in Balestier being put on the market. Despite what some analysts may say, I think it is premature to write off the collective market.

Analysts claim that developers will be cautious about buying such sites as they have to build and sell all units within five years or pay a 10 per cent stamp duty under the ABSD if they fail to do so .

If recent developer sales numbers are anything to go by - an unofficial count showed between 1,700 and 1,800 housing units may have been sold last month as compared to only 670 in December - five years is a long time.

Also, the recent tender for a residential site in Jervois Road attracted 17 bidders, which continues to show that they are more interested developers than there are sites for sale at the moment.

Finally, if we need a reminder that there is still a lot of liquidity in the market, the recent vehicle Certificate of Entitlement (COE) tender showed premiums jumping across the board. The COE for cars 1,600cc and below climbed S$4,697 to S$52,809 while the COE for cars above 1,600cc surged S$6,001 to an eye-popping S$73,890.

For prospective home buyers eyeing a market decline, I suspect it is going to be one long wait.

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

kane

10-02-12, 07:46

The crowd queueing at restaurants and thronging the malls just doesn't seem to reflect a market top signal.

amk

10-02-12, 10:38

I'm beginning to like Colin Tan now :) At least he is honest : the above article basically says "I really have no clue what the market is going now".

ikan bilis

13-02-12, 17:04

(BizTimes, sgp) Published February 13, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Companies brace for eurozone split
Some seek legal or hedging advice on euro holdings, obligations

By EMILYN YAP

(SINGAPORE) Companies may have no hold over the eurozone, but they are trying to get a grip on their exposures to the troubled region. From investment houses to energy firms, many are seeking legal advice or tapping risk models to protect themselves from a potential break-up of the bloc.

'It's important to realise that this is not a black swan, it's a widely discussed possible event,' said Laurence Wormald, research head at investment technology provider SunGard APT.

While few businesses wish to see the common currency area split, several such scenarios - of a weak country losing its membership or of a complete disintegration - are looming.

Last Monday, Citigroup raised the likelihood of a Greek exit over the next 18 months to 50 per cent, up from 25-30 per cent, as core eurozone members grow increasingly impatient with Greece's failure to meet bailout conditions.

For investment firms, the volatility that comes with a change in eurozone membership would wreak havoc on their portfolios. Hedge funds in Singapore, pension funds in London and asset managers in the United States are among those which have approached SunGard for help analysing the impact.

'What we've been asked very much by our clients recently is to help them understand the particularly dangerous risk scenarios associated with the eurozone,' said Dr Wormald.

'They want to hang on to what they think of as good investment positions but hedge them sensibly against certain contingencies ... It's a very expensive thing to do, and so you have to get it right.'

Drawing on economic research and shock transmission mechanisms seen in recent market swings, SunGard simulated the movements of various asset classes under five eurozone break-up scenarios using its risk modelling APT system.

In the mildest case, only Greece leaves the bloc, potentially leading to a 10 per cent fall in eurozone equities, a 5 per cent drop in Asia Pacific equities, and a 5 per cent slide in oil prices, among other movements. In the worst case, the eurozone falls apart, causing the same assets to dive 40 per cent, 30 per cent, and 50 per cent respectively.

'A number of (clients) told me that they were quite surprised that some things they thought would be good hedges didn't turn out to be good hedges, and that is the nature of this highly correlated set of shocks,' Dr Wormald said.

Some companies are knocking on lawyers' doors for advice on dealing with a eurozone split. 'We are receiving a number of enquiries from clients in industries such as banking and finance, energy, transportation, technology, pharmaceuticals and others in Singapore and indeed, across all jurisdictions,' said Norton Rose (Asia) partner and head of South-east Asia, Jeff Smith.

For firms which have contracts based in euros or own assets in the region, there are messy implications. Say, for instance, that a country pulls out of the eurozone and mandates that obligations be converted from euros into its new national currency.

Should the new currency depreciate sharply, which is often the case when the state is fiscally weak and economically uncompetitive, companies which used to accept payments in euros but now receive them in the new currency would be hurt.

Several factors will determine if companies can prevent their euro-based obligations from being converted. Studying the legal aspects of a re-denomination, analysts at Nomura highlighted a key factor to consider - the legal jurisdiction which applies.

If the obligation is governed by the exiting country's local law, that country would probably be able to convert the obligation from euros into the new local currency by law, they said in a January report. But, 'if the obligation is governed by foreign law, then the country which is exiting the eurozone cannot by its domestic statute change a foreign law'.

Apart from contracts, there are the financial and physical assets in eurozone to worry about.

Norton Rose partner Richard Calnan said that companies are also concerned about major euro holdings placed on deposit in less financially secure nations, and are looking at places to move these assets to should the situation worsen. Germany, France and the United Kingdom are destinations under consideration, he said.

For foreign exchange trading service providers, the introduction of new currencies by exiting eurozone members would have a direct impact on their businesses. OANDA Asia Pacific head of sales Marion Lang said that OANDA's foreign currency trading platform is prepared to deal with the addition of multiple European currencies, and the firm has retained historical exchange rates dating back to 1990.

There are companies which remain in wait-and-see mode, especially those with limited exposures to the eurozone, and those which believe the region will remain intact.

Qian Hu exports ornamental fish to the eurozone but prices them in Singapore dollars. The management team has talked about the eurozone situation and 'we think the risk is not that high yet', said executive chairman Kenny Yap.

Among market observers, many still expect the eurozone to stay together because the consequences otherwise would be nasty.

'Our base case for the euro is that the monetary union will hold together, with some kind of fiscal confederation (providing automatic stabilisers to economies, not transfers to governments),' said UBS Investment Research economists.

avo7007

15-02-12, 08:43

The crowd queueing at restaurants and thronging the malls just doesn't seem to reflect a market top signal.

Looking at the unemployment figures and household income stats, no wonder lah.:)

smarian

15-02-12, 18:36

Check out this link guys

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/videonc.cfm?PROMO_CODE=CACB-1

ikan bilis

17-02-12, 04:18

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120217-0000034/Industrial-strata-units-as-an-alternative-investment?

Industrial strata units as an alternative investment?

by Lee Sze Teck
04:46 AM Feb 17, 2012

The recently imposed Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) on certain categories of residential properties had some analysts predicting a spillover of demand to non-residential properties like industrial, retail or office strata units, but the situation might not be as straightforward as it seems.

Industrial strata units have always been an alternative investment to residential properties given its relatively affordable quantum.

The pick-up in industrial strata transactions since 2009 is in part due to the number of Government Land Sales (GLS) sites which led to more industrial strata project launches as well as the spike in residential prices since 2Q09.

Increases in industrial rents and the low interest rate environment also prompted more ownership/investment so that rental cost is controlled for companies while investors get to enjoy better returns. The remarkable economic and manufacturing growth in 2010 injected confidence into the industrial market and boosted demand for such properties.

This led to the Government releasing more sites for industrial development last year. Another 11 industrial GLS sites were sold last year and most of them are expected to be launched for sale this year.

Buyers of strata industrial units

If interest in industrial strata units has picked up since early 2009, who are actually the buyers of such units?

According to caveats logged with the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), slightly more than 70 per cent of buyers of industrial strata units are companies, with Singaporeans making up around 25 per cent and foreigners the remainder.

While the number of Singaporeans buying industrial strata units have increased in absolute terms over the past 11 quarters, their proportion in percentage terms have actually dipped to 21.8 per cent in 3Q11 from 35 per cent in 2Q09.

Why aren't more Singaporeans buying?

Shorter Tenure

Industrial strata developments are built on lands with tenure varying from 30/60/99/999-year leasehold or freehold. But the most common tenure for industrial developments is either 30- or 60-year leasehold as they are built on lands sold under the GLS Programme. Comparatively most residential, office and retail strata developments sit on lands with a 99-year lease. This means that investors in industrial strata units face higher risk as the tenure is shorter.

Unfamiliarity with the product

Singaporeans are more familiar with residential developments as it is a part of their life but not industrial developments, and not many understand the technical requirements of tenants of industrial developments.

Cannot be used for personal enjoyment

If the investor is unable to rent out his industrial strata unit, the unit will be left vacant. It is unlike a residential unit where he can move in to stay for a while looking for a tenant.

CPF cannot be used

With effect from July 1, 2006, CPF monies cannot be used to purchase non-residential properties. This means that if the property is not tenanted, the investor has to use their monthly income to service the monthly mortgage payments.

GST is payable

As this is a non-residential property purchase, investors have to pay Goods and Services Tax (GST) on their purchase of an industrial strata unit.

Higher interest rate

Interest rate on loans for non-residential property is higher than that charged by banks for loans on residential property.

Non-Residential Strata Properties Worth Considering?

Because of the higher risk involved in a non-residential property purchase, investors are compensated in the form of higher rental returns for such properties. Typically for a leasehold non-residential property, the gross yield is between 4 and 6 per cent, higher than the 2 to 4 per cent for a residential property.

Instead of comparing the two investment products by location or unit size (sq ft), a better comparison would be the price quantum since investors will have an investment amount in their mind when they want to invest and we are looking at the financial aspects in terms of downpayment, stamp duty and ABSD.

Generally, a studio or one-bedroom private residential unit can cost between S$500,000 and S$600,000, while an industrial strata unit can cost around S$500,000.

Based on upfront cash alone, investors would be better off investing in an industrial strata unit rather than a private residential unit. But it should be noted that the tenure for the two types of properties are different. The price difference between a 99-year leasehold and a 60-year leasehold property can be as much as 25 per cent.

After accounting for the difference in tenure, investors would be better off buying a private residential unit. But if tenure is not an issue, investors can consider buying an industrial strata unit since it offers better rental returns in exchange for the risks involved.

In short, there might not be spillover demand to the strata non-residential market. By imposing the ABSD, the Government is simply trying to balance out the demand in both the residential and non-residential market, letting investors decide if the difference is sufficient to cover the risks.

The ABSD quantum of 3 per cent or 10 per cent depending on the residential status and number of properties owned is probably derived from studying the upfront cash difference between investing in a residential unit and a non-residential unit.

The recent policy on a minimum size for an industrial strata unit means that investors have to fork out a higher quantum upfront thereby increasing their risk exposure.

Lee Sze Teck is a senior manager for research and consultancy at DWG.

ikan bilis

17-02-12, 04:20

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120217-0000026/Private-housing-market--Second-wind?

Private housing market: Second wind?

by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Feb 17, 2012

When last December's dismal showing of only 632 private homes sold were revealed in the middle of last month, many were bracing themselves for further shocks in the coming months. They did receive one just two days ago - only, not the kind they expected.

Developers sold 1,872 new homes in January, almost treble the number sold the previous month. Yes, sales were dominated by a few projects but that has always been the case.

Some have written off the robust sales as one-off - attributing the strong showing to two well-located mixed-use projects - which cannot be sustained. Well, it depends on who is doing the buying.

A few have attributed the strong buying to first-timers and second-home local investors who are not affected by the new additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD). Well, we know that there are a large pool of such buyers in the market. The trick is to make it affordable to most of them.

What about the "hard-core" investors as some have described themselves? Feedback from agents reveal that their presence at showflats have not diminished.

These hard-core investors are particularly attracted to projects by developers with pricing strategies which protect the investments of early-bird investors.

The only negative from the latest set of figures is the continued low sales to foreigners, judging from statistics provided by the project developers themselves.

But this is to be expected. If you are already receiving a good response from locals, why bother crafting a marketing strategy to attract foreign buyers? That will be saved for a later phase when the going gets tougher and the competition keener.

The new pricing approach adopted by some developers of marking up prices and then giving discounts or absorbing the ABSD appears to have paid dividends.

Looking at the median prices for the popular projects, we can conclude that transacted prices for new homes are definitely trending up. We will have a clearer picture when the National University of Singapore next releases its price index for completed apartments for January later this month.

Should a price decline be recorded again for non-landed properties sold in the secondary market, it may be just enough to offset any rise in prices for new homes.

A liquidity problem?

I have always maintained that the strong buying in our private housing market is largely liquidity-driven. So, it was with great interest when I read the comments of one of Hong Kong's wealthiest businessman who was in town recently to give a talk at the NUS Business School on "the future of Asia amid a crisis-laden and flattened world".

Billionaire entrepreneur William Fung - executive deputy chairman of Hong Kong-listed Li & Fung - warned that Europe's push to recapitalise its banks to contain further shocks to the system could lead to a funding crunch in Asia, but few in Asia are paying attention to this danger.

A fund manager recently pointed out to me the trend of Hong Kong companies, including developers, tapping on the strong liquidity levels in Singapore for funding. At this rate, he warned that we in Singapore might wake up one day to a credit crunch.

More recently, Australian banks raised their mortgage rates independently of the central bank, breaking the practice of recent years. The banks have blamed higher funding costs globally, as the European debt crisis leads investors to demand greater compensation for lending to banks everywhere as well as surging borrowing costs in their domestic market.

When Chinese developer Qingjian Realty announced plans to raise up to S$500 million in a Singapore listing by the beginning of next year, it really made me sit up.

Are we letting our guard down and taking our low borrowing costs for granted?

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

ikan bilis

20-02-12, 12:35

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/Finance/20120220/News/eb_ebl1_er.htm

買樓「七式」賺千萬
林本利教授置業「升呢」三部曲

2012年2月20日【明報專訊】由「無殼蝸牛」、「買樓初哥」到「置業專家」，退休大學教授林本利只用了十多年的時間，便實現了他買樓「升呢」三部曲。靠的，是一套腳踏實地、無花無巧的置業「七式」，林本利表示，他現時的「實戰投資組合」，多達六至七成是投資於物業、一成是股票、一成是外匯 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_club(62);)，至於餘下一至兩成，則由港幣以及人民幣 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_club(71);)存款平分。過去10年，其「實戰投資組合」每年帶來20%的回報，即使於去年亦逆市上升11%，遠遠跑贏大市，故可供年輕人借鏡。

林本利說長遠他看好本港樓市，樓價從高位跌兩成便開始值得吸納。他正留意海怡半島的細單位，近期成交價約470萬元，若回落至420至430萬元，他便會考慮再入市。萬事起頭難，林本利坦言，當年他大學畢業後，也足足花了9年的時間，才「儲夠錢」買入他第一個私樓單位。他表示：「我是於嬰兒潮的時候出生，那時社會上的置業需求也很大，買樓的難度不比今日低。」

「買樓無捷徑置業靠儲錢」

因此，林本利的置業第一式就是「買樓無捷徑，置業靠儲錢」。他認為，踏入社會工作後的頭10年非常重要。他表示：「如果你拚命『碌卡』消費，對不起，我可以坦白告訴你，你的結局一定是破產。相反，如果你可以努力儲錢，並且累積50萬至60萬元作為置業的首期，那要成為一個小富翁並不是難事。」

因此，林本利建議，年輕人踏入社會工作後，應該繼續與家人同住，這樣一來可以分擔家人的負擔，二來亦可以儲錢，假設收入有萬多元，每年最低限度也可以儲4萬至5萬元。

對於「儲夠錢」的首次置業人士，林本利再提供另外三式。第二式是「唔熟唔買」。林本利建議，首次置業人士應該選擇自己熟悉區域的樓盤，例如一直居住的地區。事實上，他第一個買入的私樓單位，便是位於他居住多年的鴨洲。當然，「熟」的意思並不是單單指了解該區的居住環境這麼簡單，事實上，於訪問當中，林本利每每談及其置業經驗時，總是能夠立即說出所購入的單位以及其鄰近單位的買入價，以至其過去數年的價格走勢，他對這些單位的熟悉程度，由此可見一斑。

發水嚴重不實用忌買新樓

而第三式，則是「忌買新樓」。林本利表示：「近年推出的新樓，竟然要一萬元一呎，其上升空間一定遠遠少過同區的二手樓。」

此外，林本利又指出，一些於2001後推出的「發水樓」，其建築面積「話就話」有1000呎，實用面積卻只有700呎，相比之下，一些舊樓如太古城的建築面積雖然只有800呎，然而實用面積卻同樣有700呎，所以「發水樓」並不「抵買」。

至於第四式，則是「按揭比率要高，供款年期要長」。林本利表示，他一般不贊成投資者利用槓桿進行投資，買樓卻是例外。他認為，對於年輕的置業人士，按揭比率最好是三成，而供款年期亦最好是30年。

先問回報升市須具持續性

對於想買入第二甚至第三、四個單位作投資的人士而言，林本利再提供了另外三式。第五式是「先問回報有多少」。他認為，投資的回報一定要跟風險掛，而買樓屬於中高風險投資，所以如果未來兩、三年，每年未能提供10%或以上的實質回報(實質回報=名義回報-通脹率)，便不宜沾手。

而第六式，則是「先問樓價可否持續」。林本利認為，樓價的可持續性，主要建基於兩點，第一是香港人的負擔能力，供樓負擔比率要維持於40%或以下才算合理；第二是長遠利率走勢。

1997年時，香港的供樓負擔比率高達85%，當時海怡半島一個單位要過千萬元，與港島半山看齊，林本利認為這當中一定有泡沫，所以於96年末、97年初，他一口氣賣了兩個單位，將手上持有的物業數量減至三個單位。

事實證明，林本利沒有看錯市，其後樓價真的大跌，手上現金充足的他更趁樓價於98年回落五成時入市，先以500多萬元買入一個97年時值940多萬元的單位，到01年時，再斥資450多萬元買入旁邊另一個單位(97年時值980多萬元)。

現金要充足進可攻退可守

所以第七式，就是「現金要充足」。才可以進可攻，退可守。林本利表示：「不少人於03年、08年時被公司裁走，逼於無奈下只好賣樓套現，而03年時的供樓負擔比率只不過是20%，只要捱得過，他們其實已可以翻身。」

早年低買，造就了近年高沽的機會。早於前年6、7月時，由於租戶提前解約，林本利將碧瑤灣一個單位放售，賣出價為1400多萬元，相比起04年時的買入價586萬元，帳面足足賺了800多萬元。來到去年4月，林本利預期樓價已見頂，於是再將海怡半島一個單位放售，賣出價為1115萬元，相比起06年時的買入價588萬元，帳面亦賺了500多萬元。

只買實力股不買概念股

2012年2月20日【明報專訊】林本利的財富增值主要是買樓而來，股票、債券 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_club(97);)、外幣及現金佔他的投資組合約30％，股票佔10％。不少香港股票基金 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_club(21);)經理去年錄得負回報，全行平均回報為負20.62％，林本利坦言，自己股票組合多年來跑贏基金經理，去年他在股票方面也錄得負11％，但扣除股息後，跌幅只是單位數字。

看好今年股市最近沽電力股

林本利買股守則要息高風險低，曾持有匯控 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0005) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()、恒生 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0011) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()、中電 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0002) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()及電能(0006) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()，但這些股份都已沽出。另外，他有買中移動 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0941) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()、中石油 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0857) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()及領匯 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0823) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()。「我會買高息、有實力、有具體業務公司的股票，不會買概念股，風險波幅太大了，好似電盈 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()(0008) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()及內銀股，就不會沾手。」他現時的股票投資，平均每年為他帶來4厘股息。

他表示，自己在2009年因要做電力專家證人，參與政府與兩電差餉訴訟。當時想買兩電股票也因為避嫌沒有買入。直至完成兩宗訴訟工作(包括出庭作供)，去年開始預期股市將大調整，於是再購入兩電股票，結果逆市賺錢。

但今年不同，他預期經濟會在下半年開始好轉，股市多會先經濟走先大約半年，加上他主持港台《自由風自由 Phone 》時事評論節目，有機會探討電費調整問題，故將兩電沽出避嫌，轉買一些增長較快股份。

買股靠閒錢沽買皆分段

他表示，股市不可以估頂及估底，投資股票是用閒錢，特別是要留多些現金，分段吸納，沽售也應分段。現時恒指平均市盈率 (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_News2KW(4);)十多倍，是入市的時機，但當恒指升至25000點、市盈率達20倍時，便應該減持。

他研究公用事業政策，熟悉本地及內地電訊、能源及交通市場發展，確實有助投資。過去多年憑這些研究，避過科網股災及於適當時間購入中國移動(0941) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()、中石油(0857) (http://javascript:KeywordsURL_financeKW()及兩電等股票避險。去年股市大跌，個人投資組合表現勝恒指，可算是研究公用事業政策意外收穫。

他表示，價值投資及長線投資未必適用現今社會，因為現時衍生工具活躍，令港股波動加大，故投資股票未必適宜長。所以如果價格合適可以分段買入，沽出也宜分段。

政府不打壓首戰商廈獲利

2012年2月20日【明報專訊】接受訪問前，林本利事先要求記者拜讀他的著作《理財有道》。結果訪問當日，林本利劈頭第一句便問：「你們有看過我的書吧？」幸好，記者一早已經做足「功課」，回答起來才不至於「口窒窒」。

於整整兩個多小時的訪問中，退休之前任職大學教授的林本利，基本上是由頭說到尾，連水也沒有喝一口，看來不像是在接受訪問，反倒像是在大學授課，而談到他的置業經驗，他更是侃侃而談，來到訪問中段，他索性帶記者進入他的辦公室，展示一個包含他過去10年「戰績」的Excel檔案。

訪問完結後，林本利更帶記者參觀了由他創立的「活道教育中心」的校舍。他表示，這是他第一次進軍商廈的「戰利品」，早於2010年8、9月的時候，他便斥資800多萬元，一口氣掃入這兩個位於北角英皇道的商廈單位。

買單位辦學年多已升值

為甚麼他會忽然興起轉戰商廈市場的念頭呢？林本利表示，理由很簡單，就是因為他認為政府不會出手打壓商廈。而林本利這個「商廈初哥」，第一次入市即有「斬獲」。他表示︰「我其中一個單位的買入價是三百多四百萬元，聽說現在叫價已上升至500多萬元。」不過他表示，買入上述單位的主要目的是作辦學用途，故暫時不會考慮割愛。

ikan bilis

24-02-12, 16:53

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120224-0000047/Why-HDB-resale-flat-prices-will-not-fall-any-time-soon

Why HDB resale flat prices will not fall any time soon

by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Feb 24, 2012

When property agency bosses at a seminar early this month predicted a 3 to 5 per cent fall in the prices of Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats for this year, possibly declining up to 10 per cent should economic conditions worsen, it prompted a few prospective buyers to ask me whether this was news too good to be true.

The forecast was reinforced by data released a week later by three major agencies specialising in HDB resale flats. It showed that the overall median cash-over-valuation (COV) amount for all flat types based on last month's deals has dropped in the range of S$4,700 to S$8,000 or by some 20 to 30 per cent in most flat types.

COV is the sum that the buyer of a HDB resale flat pays above the flat's valuation.

It would be foolhardy to call a price correction based only on the shrinking trend of COV amounts as it has been shown to widen and narrow several times at various points of the present up-cycle. It may very well widen within the next few months as the COV amounts are not only influenced by demand and supply factors but only by the pace at which the market moves and by other non-market factors.

Although no concrete numbers were provided, key factors cited for the downward pressure on prices were dampened demand from the falling numbers of foreigners entering Singapore - which typically contributes to strong demand for rental and resale flats - and the record supply of new flats.

A supply crunch

My contention has always been that the present high resale flat prices have been supported not so much as by demand but by a supply crunch.

The problem of heightened investment demand has already been taken care off by cooling measures introduced on Aug 30, 2010. Under the new rules, those buying a HDB resale flat must dispose of their private property - including any held overseas - within six months of the purchase. This was to ensure that HDB flats go to owner occupiers first and are not viewed as an investment. Then, an average one in 10 resale flat-buyers own private property.

The record number of new BTO flats launched and the promise of even more has also lessened demand from first-timers considerably.

While resale volumes have fallen by a quarter since then, prices have remained stubbornly resilient.

Typically, the biggest supply of new resale flats which matters comes from households who have lived in their new flats for between five (the minimum occupation period is five years) and 10 years. These are the upgraders to the private housing market. Ten years is a good gauge for households to know whether they can afford and have the means to upgrade to a private home. If by the 10th year they have not upgraded, they are probably less likely to do so.

Then there are those who upgrade within the HDB housing market. Their numbers are less important as they do not add to the net supply, contributing to both supply and demand.

If you go through the HDB statistics over the years, you will find that the number of flats built over the five-year period between 2003 and 2007 is about three quarters less than the number built over the previous five-year period between 1998 and 2002.

This means, that on average, there is 75 per cent less new resale supply this year and for the year going back up to 2008. No matter how much you try to discount these numbers, the decline is substantial and very significant.

Going forward, the numbers built in the next five years from 2008 onwards is not much better until possibly 2017. This is because new supply was ramped only in 2010. This takes into account the two-year construction period and the minimum five-year occupation period.

What about demand?

You can only siphon off so much demand towards new flats. There will always be a core demand comprising PRs, downgraders from the private housing market and first timers who need their flats urgently as well as those who are - for reasons of their own - fixed in their choice of flat location. In fact, this core demand can only grow should there be more successful collective sale of private housing developments.

Recent feedback also show more and more upgraders are keeping their HDB flats - which reduces resale flat supply further - even as they re-locate to their private homes. They feel that if they can afford to keep them, they will do so as it is difficult to re-enter the HDB resale market once sold.

In the meantime, they are intending to use the rental income from leasing their resale flats to pay off part of the monthly mortgage of their private property. Most think this is a win-win situation for them.

My conclusion: In the absence of a severe recession, it is hard to see resale flat prices correcting this year.

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

devilplate

24-02-12, 16:55

COV drop doesnt mean HDB price drop

ikan bilis

24-02-12, 16:55

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120224-0000039/REITs--Both-benefits-and-costs

REITs: Both benefits and costs

by Tan Chin Keong
04:46 AM Feb 24, 2012

Recent newspaper articles have increasingly laid blame on real estate investment trusts (REITs) for the rising occupancy costs in retail and industrial properties.

In fact, in my earlier article in this newspaper titled "Hawker centres and REITs: An inflation face-off?" (Nov 25, 2011), I also highlighted that REITs, in their relentless pursuit of superior shareholder returns, have generally been very proactive and efficient in raising the rental rates of their investment properties. This is in the best interests of REIT shareholders; unfortunately, it also results in higher rental costs, which eventually filter through to the inflation basket.

However, while potentially resulting in higher inflation, REITs also have their benefits. And having followed the Singapore REIT sector since its birth in 2002, I feel it is my responsibility to also highlight such benefits.

First, the introduction of REITs has provided a cost-effective way for investors, especially the retail investors, to gain exposure in a pool of diversified commercial or industrial properties. Before REITs were introduced, ordinary investors were largely shut out of commercial and industrial real estate due to the generally large amount of capital involved. REITs have helped to attract retail money into these previously inaccessible property sectors, thus expanding the investment options of ordinary Singaporeans.

This, in turn, has boosted the supply of commercial and industrial properties in Singapore. Even if REITs mainly purchase existing buildings from property developers, they effectively free up capital in the property developers, who then gain the incentive to build new commercial and industrial buildings. In fact, many property developers who are large REIT sponsors in Singapore, have been recycling the capital they generate from the sales of their investment properties to their sponsored REITs to build new retail properties. This helps to create a more vibrant retail mall scene in Singapore. One might even say REITs have helped to boost Singapore's profile as a tourist and commercial hub.

Second, REITs also help to improve the quality of existing commercial and industrial buildings. Due to their focus on shareholder returns, REITs are normally very active in enhancing the premises, facilities and services of their investment properties whenever the opportunity arises. This has resulted in better quality investment properties (especially the retail malls) that are more exciting to visit. For example, many retail malls (such as Plaza Singapura and IMM Building) have been successfully refurbished and enhanced by their REIT owners.

Last but not least, the Singapore REIT sector was created to provide an additional high-yielding financial instrument for Singaporeans to invest their savings in order to secure a steady income upon retirement. This is especially important given Singapore's ageing society. The sector has developed well over the past decade with more than 20 REITs being listed currently, offering investment opportunities into different investment property asset classes. In fact, the Singapore REIT sector is currently the second-largest in Asia, just behind Japan, another ageing society.

Thus, like in most situations, the case for or against REITs is not a straightforward one as it entails both social and financial benefits and costs. I guess the key question is whether Singapore as a society values the social and financial benefits of REITs more than its costs.

Tan Chin Keong is an analyst at UBS Wealth Management Research.

teddybear

24-02-12, 21:20

Let me repeat what I said previously again: Avoid REITs like plague! :scared-1:

Again, I repeat that the govt should be tackling commercial REITs as they are the main cause of inflation! Don't understand why those they need to tackle they didn't and they keep mantling with private residential properties talking about pro-active steps to cool private residential properties? :banghead:
Why no pro-active steps to kill the main source of inflation - REITs! :confused:
Why no pro-active steps to cure Bedok Residences transacting at S$1500 psf! :hell-hath-no-fury:

The advantage he mentioned is not real advantage because like unit trusts, they use heavy leverage to achieve higher yield and they creamed off most of the gains & profits and leave crumbs to you! :doh:

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120224-0000039/REITs--Both-benefits-and-costs

REITs: Both benefits and costs

by Tan Chin Keong
04:46 AM Feb 24, 2012

Recent newspaper articles have increasingly laid blame on real estate investment trusts (REITs) for the rising occupancy costs in retail and industrial properties.

In fact, in my earlier article in this newspaper titled "Hawker centres and REITs: An inflation face-off?" (Nov 25, 2011), I also highlighted that REITs, in their relentless pursuit of superior shareholder returns, have generally been very proactive and efficient in raising the rental rates of their investment properties. This is in the best interests of REIT shareholders; unfortunately, it also results in higher rental costs, which eventually filter through to the inflation basket.

However, while potentially resulting in higher inflation, REITs also have their benefits. And having followed the Singapore REIT sector since its birth in 2002, I feel it is my responsibility to also highlight such benefits.

First, the introduction of REITs has provided a cost-effective way for investors, especially the retail investors, to gain exposure in a pool of diversified commercial or industrial properties. Before REITs were introduced, ordinary investors were largely shut out of commercial and industrial real estate due to the generally large amount of capital involved. REITs have helped to attract retail money into these previously inaccessible property sectors, thus expanding the investment options of ordinary Singaporeans.

This, in turn, has boosted the supply of commercial and industrial properties in Singapore. Even if REITs mainly purchase existing buildings from property developers, they effectively free up capital in the property developers, who then gain the incentive to build new commercial and industrial buildings. In fact, many property developers who are large REIT sponsors in Singapore, have been recycling the capital they generate from the sales of their investment properties to their sponsored REITs to build new retail properties. This helps to create a more vibrant retail mall scene in Singapore. One might even say REITs have helped to boost Singapore's profile as a tourist and commercial hub.

Second, REITs also help to improve the quality of existing commercial and industrial buildings. Due to their focus on shareholder returns, REITs are normally very active in enhancing the premises, facilities and services of their investment properties whenever the opportunity arises. This has resulted in better quality investment properties (especially the retail malls) that are more exciting to visit. For example, many retail malls (such as Plaza Singapura and IMM Building) have been successfully refurbished and enhanced by their REIT owners.

Last but not least, the Singapore REIT sector was created to provide an additional high-yielding financial instrument for Singaporeans to invest their savings in order to secure a steady income upon retirement. This is especially important given Singapore's ageing society. The sector has developed well over the past decade with more than 20 REITs being listed currently, offering investment opportunities into different investment property asset classes. In fact, the Singapore REIT sector is currently the second-largest in Asia, just behind Japan, another ageing society.

Thus, like in most situations, the case for or against REITs is not a straightforward one as it entails both social and financial benefits and costs. I guess the key question is whether Singapore as a society values the social and financial benefits of REITs more than its costs.

Tan Chin Keong is an analyst at UBS Wealth Management Research.

ikan bilis

26-02-12, 16:00

:beats-me-man:

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20120226-330260.html

ECB prepares to open liquidity floodgates again http://business.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gif

FRANKFURT - The European Central Bank is preparing to flood eurozone banks with cheap money again this week in the second of two such operations aimed at preventing a credit crunch in the euro area.

In an unprecedented move last December, the ECB announced it would lend as much as banks wanted at an ultra-low interest rate of 1.0 per cent for a period of three years so as to keep credit flowing in Europe at a time when banks are increasingly wary of lending to each other in the current debt crisis.

In the end, some 523 banks lined up to borrow a record 489.2 billion euros (S$823 billion).

At the time, ECB chief Mario Draghi said that a second such three-year auction of funds - known as a long-term refinancing operation or LTRO - would be held on February 29 and he estimated that demand for the new cash would likely be just as strong.
Draghi, in office only since November, has since been keen to draw attention to the success of the operation.

In an interview with the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Friday, Draghi said "the impact of the three-year tender was underestimated when I announced it in December, because many people expected the ECB to expand its government bond purchases, the famous 'bazooka'.

"Maybe I should have called the tender 'Big Bertha' when I announced it, then everyone would have listened," Draghi said.

Tensions in the banking system do indeed appear to have eased, borrowing costs for debt-wracked countries such as Spain and Italy have come down, stock markets across Europe have rallied and confidence is on the rise.

Ever since the eruption of the crisis, the ECB has come under intense political pressure to step in and save eurozone countries sinking under huge mountains of debt.

But the bank has argued from the very beginning that it is up to overspending governments to get their finances in order and restore the markets' confidence in their ability to repay their debts, which is the underlying cause of the eurozone's current ills.

The ECB insists its fire-fighting efforts must be limited to acting as lender of last resort for banks only and not for governments.

Nevertheless, economists and ECB watchers are impressed with Draghi's performance so far, after just four months in office: in addition to a wide range of liquidity measures, the bank has cut interest rates twice, effectively reversing two rate hikes last year.

Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman, writing in the New York Times, was full of praise for Draghi.

He "brushed aside the inflation-worriers and engineered a large expansion of credit, which was just what the doctor ordered," Krugman wrote.

John FitzGerald of the Economic and Social Research Institute, a Dublin-based think tank, similarly believed the LTRO has worked "surprisingly well in getting the ECB off the hook.

"There was always talk of the ECB's 'big bazooka'" to solve the eurozone crisis and this was it, FitzGerald told AFP.

"If (Draghi) pulls this off and gets the ECB out of this hole, the pressure to act, without infringing on statues, then he'll have done a very good job," the economics professor said.

While Draghi said the aim of the new funding was for banks to lend to households and businesses, there have been concerns that banks are simply hoarding the cash instead, as banks have been parking record amounts of cash in the central bank's overnight storage facility.

Furthermore, in its regular quarterly bank lending survey, the ECB calculated that growth in loans to the private sector slowed substantially in December.

"The banks need to play the game, to redistribute part of the loans from the ECB. But that's a question of priorities, since they themselves are facing constraints," said Natixis analyst Cyril Regnat.

Marie Diron, economist at Ernst & Young, noted banks had responded enthusiastically to the ECB's first three-year loan offer "and we expect a significant take-up again next week."

But she saw some downsides to the LTRO, too.

"It threatens to make banks in some countries dangerously dependent on ECB financing. Italian and Spanish banks now have five per cent of their assets financed by the ECB and the more this rises, the more difficult it may be for banks to attract other financing," she said.

"Overall, we think that the ECB was right to step up its support to the banking sector. But we would warn against any statement that this marks a 'mission accomplished' as one ECB official suggested," she said.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://news.yahoo.com/euro-zone-deal-firewall-awaits-germany-001447722.html

G20 inches toward $2 trillion in rescue funds

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Germany is easing its opposition to a bigger European bailout fund, officials said, smoothing the way for the world's leading economies to secure nearly $2 trillion in firepower to prevent further fallout from the euro-zone's sovereign debt crisis.

Finance leaders from the Group of 20, meeting in Mexico City this weekend, are trying to build up massive international resources by the end of April to convince financial markets they can prevent the euro-zone's deep problems from inflicting more damage on a still-fragile world recovery.

It would mark their boldest efforts since 2008 when the G20 mustered $1 trillion to rescue the world economy from the credit crisis, which blew up in the United States and caused the worst recession since the 1930s.

They are demanding that Europe build up its war chest first and then other G20 countries would contribute extra money to the International Monetary Fund. As Europe's richest economy, Germany's support for a larger European fund is critical.

A senior G20 official said Berlin was prepared to discuss boosting the firewall in March, but it saw no reason to increase the bailout fund for now because the situation in financial markets has been improving.

The plan is to merge Europe's temporary and permanent bailout funds, the European Financial Stability Fund and the European Stability Mechanism, to create one 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) fund. Increased IMF resources would back that up.

"Everyone in the euro zone and even in European Union is reasonably happy with combining the ESM and the EFSF, even Germany, but it is too early to say if this will be decided at the EU summit at the beginning of March," said Margrethe Vestager, economy minister of current EU president Denmark.

Merging the funds would mark a softening of Berlin's stance. It has warned that a bigger fund would remove pressure on deeply indebted countries to enact the tough fiscal measures and economic reforms needed to bring their budgets under control.

G20 finance chiefs are piling the pressure on Germany as they try to line up the roughly $2 trillion in resources by the time they next meet in April and draw a line under the two-year-old euro-zone crisis.

"I do want to encourage Germany to take that leadership role very seriously and come up with an overall euro zone plan," said Canada's Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

Some diplomats have said Germany's reticence to back the bigger bailout plan was linked to a key vote on Monday by German lawmakers on Greece's new financial lifeline, another part of the broader push to ring-fence the euro zone crisis.

Europe's problems have weakened the global recovery and roiled financial markets, which have locked highly indebted countries -- Greece, Ireland and Portugal -- out of debt markets and forced them to seek bailouts. Italy and Spain also are under threat, and bank credit has tightened.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told bankers in Mexico City that he was worried that the root causes of Europe's problems have not been tackled sufficiently and showed no sign that he was ready to announce a shift in course on issues such as common euro zone bonds as well as bigger bailout funds.

"It does not make any economic sense to follow the calls for proposals which would be mutualizing the interest risk in the euro zone, nor in pumping money into rescue funds, nor in starting up the ECB printing press," Schaeuble said.

BIG BAZOOKA

A European agreement during March to merge the EFSF and the ESM to create a $1 trillion war chest would clear the way for other G20 countries in April to meet the IMF's request for $500-$600 billion in new resources, on top of its current $358 billion in funds.

Put together, this would total around $1.95 trillion in firepower. But the G20 has no intention of easing the pressure on Europe by giving it a strong signal now that new IMF money is in the bag.

A G20 communique at the end of the ministerial meetings on Sunday will merely state that the world's leading economies will review the resources of the IMF in April without setting a date for a deal, G20 officials said.

Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, said more funds are essential. "In order to overcome the crisis, you have to get ahead of the curve and have a big enough bazooka," he told reporters.

"The negotiations are now going on," Rehn said, adding he was confident that a decision to merge the European funds would be taken in March.

A euro zone official said a deal is unlikely to come in time for a summit of European Union leaders next week which could nonetheless reveal some flexibility by Berlin: "What we can expect, at most, is a reference in the conclusions suggesting Germany is not closing the door."

GERMANY NEEDS TIME

Diplomats said Germany appears to be playing for time. It faces a critical vote on Monday to win support in the German parliament for Greece's second rescue package. Many Bundestag members are skeptical that Greece can meet tough fiscal conditions required to bring its public debt down to 120 percent of GDP by 2020.

Similar votes are scheduled in the Netherlands and Finland next week. Germany also wants to see whether enough investors sign up for Greece's debt swap, which Athens wants to complete by March 12, a euro zone official said.

"Most euro zone countries are ready to move now, but I am afraid that Germany will need more time to agree to the increase, mainly to be able to better manage the Bundestag," one euro zone official said.

The United States has said it will not provide more funds for the IMF. But it is not standing in the way of other countries lending to the Fund and is keeping up the pressure on Europe to put forward first more of its own money.

"I hope that we're going to see, and I expect we will see continued efforts by the Europeans ... to put in place a stronger, more credible firewall," Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Saturday.

Policymakers said they were hopeful that putting in place a strong firewall against further crises in Europe would help strengthen the world economy.
"The economy is somewhat picking up in the world as a whole including Japan and (we) want to put an end to the Europe crisis in the early spring and to accelerate the global economic growth," Japan's Finance Minister Jun Azumi said.

(Additional reporting by Louise Egan, Glenn Somerville, Tetsushi Kajimoto,; Alonso Soto, Dave Graham and the G20 reporting team.; Writing by Stella Dawson; editing by William Schomberg)

ikan bilis

28-02-12, 12:41

Yeah!!... continual crashed for 2-months liow.... shiok!!.. :im-so-happy:

SRPI Dec 2011 (Revised)

SRPI Overall 168.4 -1.0% -0.8%
SRPI Central (excluding small units) 168.3 -0.6% -0.4%
SRPI Non-Central (excluding small units) 171.7 -1.3% -1.0%
SRPI Small 166.7 2.3% 3.4%

SPRI Jan 2012

SRPI Overall 167.6 -0.4%
SRPI Central (excluding small units) 165.0 -1.9%
SRPI Non-Central (excluding small units) 173.3 1.0%
SRPI Small 165.1 -1.0%

ikan bilis

02-03-12, 08:07

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120302-0000024/China-curbs-drag-home-prices-down-further

China curbs drag home prices down further

04:46 AM Mar 02, 2012

SHANGHAI - China's home prices for last month posted the biggest decline in 19 months as the government pledged to maintain curbs on property, according to SouFun Holdings, the nation's biggest real-estate portal.

And market watchers expect prices to continue to fall, with no signs of the curbs easing in sight.

Home prices dropped 0.3 per cent last month from January, according to SouFun, which began compiling the figures in July 2010 when housing values fell 1.3 per cent.

Residential prices slid in 72 of 100 cities tracked by the company last month, 12 more than in January, it said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.

Shanghai restated home purchase restrictions that allow only local permanent residents to buy a second home on Tuesday, a week after a newspaper affiliated with state-run Xinhua News Agency said China's financial centre had broadened its definition.

Premier Wen Jiabao has maintained that China would not waver on its real estate controls and efforts to bring prices down to a reasonable level.

"Home prices will continue to fall in the coming months because it's pretty clear that the central government won't ease the tightening soon," said Mr Zhao Zhenyi, a Shanghai-based property analyst at Yuanta Securities. "Developers will launch more projects as inventories increase."

Local governments have attempted to ease property tightening policies with little success. The eastern Chinese city of Wuhu on Feb 13 reversed its decision to relax property curbs.

The mid-sized city in Anhui province had planned to waive a deed tax and subsidise some purchases on Feb 9, becoming the first Chinese city this year to signal its intention to ease property measures.

Developers' performances fall

Average home prices nationwide climbed 0.93 per cent last month from the same time in 2011 to 8,767 yuan (S$1,740) a sq m (10.76 sq ft), the slowest pace of growth since August, SouFun said.

The month-on-month decline last month was the sixth straight drop, the longest losing streak since SouFun started tracking the data.

Chinese property developers fell in Hong Kong trading and made up nine of the 10 biggest decliners on the MSCI China Index as of yesterday morning.

China Overseas Land and Investment, the nation's biggest developer listed in Hong Kong, declined 3.3 per cent, the most since Feb 13.

Some Chinese developers are allowing first-time home buyers to delay their down payments to boost sales, China Business News reported on Monday, citing unidentified sales agents.

Developers in cities including Nanjing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Wuhan sold some projects with a 10 per cent down payment, the newspaper reported.

The sellers advanced the remaining 20 per cent, which buyers do not have to pay back for as long as three years in some cases, the newspaper said, citing agents and sales people it did not identify.

First-home buyers in China need a minimum 30 per cent down payment.

Home prices in the western city of Chengdu fell 1.1 per cent from January, the biggest decline among China's 10 biggest cities, while Beijing dropped 0.6 per cent, according to SouFun.

The property market will remain challenging this year, although there would not be a "collapse" as leading cities prove more resilient, according to a Citigroup report yesterday, led by analyst Oscar Choi. BLOOMBERG

ikan bilis

09-03-12, 08:31

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120309-0000053/The-squeeze-factor

The squeeze factor

by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Mar 09, 2012

The recent saga in Toh Yi estate where a petition by some residents to stop the building of a block of studio apartments for the elderly in their neighbourhood, as well as the earlier case of Woodlands residents opposing to an eldercare centre being built at their void deck, shocked many right-minded Singaporeans.

Are some of us so caught up in the rat race that we have become so uncaring and unfeeling towards our fellow Singaporeans? Surely, the housing needs of the elderly are of greater importance than the open space of a void deck, greenery, a playground or a car park?

Were the affected residents right to act as they did? Some reasons given were selfish ones, such as the perceived loss in the value of their flats.

In the case of Toh Yi estate, residents cited the loss of a basketball court, jogging track and community garden - the area's main recreational facilities. How many of them actually use these facilities? And of these, how many actually objected? Probably just a few, so why the hue and cry?

However, if you read deeper into their reasons, you will realise that it is not so much the loss of amenities that matter but the open spaces that come with them. I would include the void deck in this list.

I am thinking: Is this more a problem of overcrowding than a loss of amenities or hard-to-quantify material gains?

OVERCROWDING TAKES ITS TOLL

I used to live in an HDB slab block in a mature estate where the spacing between blocks was a lot more generous than in today's newer estates and where there were many shrubs and other greenery.

Today, when I pay a visit to my parents' place, car parks occupy what used to be greenery. And half the void decks in the precinct are occupied by facilities such as childcare centres, social service centres and day-care rehabilitation centres for the elderly. The residents have no complaints but the neighbourhood feels a lot less spacious and, in a way, claustrophobic.

Scientific studies have shown that rats kept in boxes that are progressively made smaller ended up biting each other.

Are the residents with a lower threshold of tolerance beginning to feel the negative effects of overcrowding? Are they just hitting out without really understanding why they are reacting this way?

The loss of the open spaces provided by void decks could not be avoided in the older estates as we could not have anticipated that we would require so many other social amenities that come with the changes in the population profile. In any case, it was a lot faster and cheaper to provide them at void decks than erect another physical structure to house the amenity.

Today, with the benefit of hindsight and experience, could we not with proper planning cater ahead for the provision of these social amenities without taking away our void decks.

Depending on the designs, it could certainly help a lot with lowering any perception of overcrowding, if not now, than in the future when our population density rises even further.

And if void decks are no longer part of the HDB architects' designs, could we not re-instate them even if they are not so spacious with more tower block configurations?

As Singapore becomes more built-up and as our population density rises, void decks and open spaces will become more of a treasured amenity.

MARGINAL IMPACT OF NEW EC RULE ON HDB RESALE PRICE

Still on housing policies, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan recently unveiled a host of new measures, including a six-fold increase in the executive condominium (EC) allocation and a three-fold increase in the Built-To-Order (BTO) flat supply allocation in non-mature estates for second-timers.

I am asked if this would help relieve some the pressure on HDB resale prices.

Previously, a second-timer could realistically only turn to HDB resale flats to upgrade themselves as their chances of securing an EC or a BTO flat were very low.

If more of them turn to ECs and BTOs, their numbers would not add to the supply of resale flats as the owners still need to occupy them while their new units are being built. This means the impact on prices would be marginal.

Of course, some may choose to sell now and rent while waiting for their keys to the new flats. I am just not sure how sophisticated this group of second-timer buyers are.

However, what is certain is that the volume of resale transactions will be reduced, depending on the numbers opting to buy ECs and BTO flats - and with it, HDB resale estate agents' commissions.

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

ikan bilis

09-03-12, 23:13

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/My%2BMoney/Property/Story/A1Story20120223-329773.html

Mass-market segment still going strong

By Han Huan Mei

2011 was a record year for mass market home sales. Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) numbers indicate that 10,374 units or 65 per cent of the total number of new private homes sold were in the Outside Central Region (OCR). The figures exclude executive condominiums (ECs).

In comparison, home sales in the OCR numbered 7,357 units (45 per cent share) in 2010 and 6,060 units (41 per cent) in 2009. It is our view that this segment of the residential market, particularly projects with good location and product attributes, will continue to be fairly resilient in the coming months.

URA defines Core Central Region (CCR) as districts 9, 10, 11, Downtown Core and Sentosa while the Rest of Central Region (RCR) comprises the Central Region excluding districts 9, 10 and 11, Downtown Core and Sentosa.

OCR comprises the rest of the island outside the Central Region. Most of the HDB new towns and private mass-market housing are located in the OCR.

The strong take-up of new mass-market homes in 2010-2011 could be attributed to both population growth and supply, under a climate of healthy economic fundamentals and low interest rates.

According to the Department of Statistics, Singapore’s total population grew from five million in 2009 to 5.08 million and 5.18 million in 2010 and 2011 respectively.

The proportion of households living in private apartments/ condominiums grew from 10.4 per cent in 2009 to 11.2 per cent in 2010. The proportion in 2011, although not available, ought to be higher. Moreover, Singapore’s open economy continued to attract foreigners to our shores.

URA’s figures show that the number of foreigners and permanent residents who bought new private homes increased from 2,911 in 2009 to 3,887 in 2010 and to 4,337 in 2011.

On the supply side, developers launched a total of 17,710 new homes in 2011, 6.8 per cent more than the 16,575 units launched in 2010. Of this number, 11,248 units (64 per cent) were located in OCR, 4,419 units (25 per cent) in RCR and 2,043 units (11 per cent) in the CCR.

In 2010, developers launched 7,866 units (47 per cent) in OCR, 4,731 units (29 per cent) in the RCR and 3,978 units (24 per cent) in the CCR.

Developers were able to put on the market the large volume of homes in these past two years as they built up sizeable land banks through the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme and private collective sales when the market recovered in H2 2009.

Between H2 2009 and 2011, developers bought a total of 43 GLS sites in the OCR (excluding executive condominiums). These sites can potentially yield over 18,300 new homes.

From the pool of private sites, developers bought at least 52 sites in the OCR which can be developed into 2,600 homes or more. To date, developers have launched about 60 per cent of the total supply on GLS and private sites.

Based on caveats lodged for mass-market homes sold in 2009 to 2011, the median price of new non-landed homes rose by 35 per cent from $688 psf in 2009 to $927 psf in 2010. And in 2011, the rate increased 4 per cent to $966 psf.

2009 saw the highest proportion of buyers, or 76 per cent, forking out less than $1 million for their new homes. The proportion was 56 per cent in 2010 and 62 per cent in 2011.

Interestingly, since 2009, the median size of OCR homes has been shrinking from 115 sq m to 97 sq m in 2010 and 85 sq m in 2011. Clearly, developers have been careful to manage the rise in prices by building smaller units.

Innovative approaches used by developers in recent years have proven to be popular with homebuyers.

Firstly, the provision of a higher percentage of studios, one- and two-bedrooms have found a ready pool of buyers – singles, young professionals, retirees who are downgraders and/or empty-nesters and investors looking for rental income. Then there is the introduction of Soho-style units to facilitate a live-work-play lifestyle.

Thirdly, large-scale residential-and-mall developments which are linked to an MRT station are able to attract homebuyers even in a more cautious market. The success of Bedok Residences and Watertown testify to the popularity of this lifestyle concept.

A fourth innovative strategy by developers has been the provision of strata houses within condominium projects. Prices of these houses range from $2.5 million to $4 million each and these properties have proved especially popular among foreigners, who may buy strata landed homes that are within approved condominium developments without seeking government approval.

In 2012, we expect to see more innovations in the mass-market projects to continue to attract a steady stream of buyers. Developers face more challenging market conditions in the new year.

Under the new additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) tax regime, developers participating in the H1 2012 GLS Programme will have to assess the risks involved.

Developers buying any residential sites from Dec 8, 2011, will have to pay a 10 per cent ABSD.

However, upfront remission of this can be granted to licensed housing developers provided they undertake to complete developing projects on such sites and selling all the units in these projects within five years from the date of contract or agreement to purchase the site, among other conditions.

For sites with strong attributes for example near an MRT station, developers may not need to factor in ABSD as they will be more confident of selling the entire project within five years.

However, they will be cautious in their bids so that they can manage costs. Since land costs are fixed once committed, developers will be as creative as possible to manage construction and marketing costs to sell units.

Homebuyers will remain price sensitive, especially to projects with poorer location and product attributes. Moreover, some of the demand could be satisfied by executive condominiums.

The writer is associate director at CBRE Research.

ikan bilis

13-03-12, 15:09

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pd3.cfm?File=20120310/pda01/gaa1.txt

「末日博士」麥嘉華﹕美元勢變廢紙黃金房產不可無

文章日期：2012年3月10日

【明報專訊】人稱「末日博士」的麥嘉華（Marc Faber），與近年其他新興末日博士不同，其實他並非時刻唱淡，卻是真正的相反理論者，往往能提供「另類」觀點，極有啟發性。他最近在自己的博客寫道，對孩子的最佳理財教育，是買一張100美元債券，然後用相架鑲起來，放在當眼處，用來教育下一代何謂通脹﹕這張債券，會在20年後變成接近廢紙！現金（美元）又何嘗不是？

美元購買力過去30年損耗逾八成

事實上，美國於1971年放棄金本位制後，等同美國可以自由印銀紙，令貨幣供應量不再受限，自始美元購買力便江河日下，美元的購買力，於1971年至今，不見了83％（見圖）！

要知道，香港在1983年開始採用聯繫匯率制度，自始港元與美元掛，美元購買力下跌，港元便也面對相同困境，在1983年至今，美元的購買力跌幅，也達到57％！所謂購買力下跌，主要體現在通脹，以及美元匯價貶值之上，近年美匯不斷下跌，香港由於經濟與中國日益密切，中國通脹高企，令香港的面對輸入通脹，情遠較美國嚴峻，以至港元購買力的損耗，可能較美元更快和更差！

港通脹較美元嚴重港元貶值壓力更大

對抗通脹，一般人都會想起黃金和房產。事實上，麥嘉華也剛在美國財經電視台CNBC接受訪問時表示，由於各國仍然大印錢紙，通脹難免，而全球資金亂竄將持續，只會令未來數年全球經濟和金融市場更加波動。他又預期，美國股市即將調整，但在通脹環境下，卻不宜全線持有現金。

麥嘉華建議，在通脹和波動的經濟下，可將資金分成4份，將其中25％持有黃金，另外25％持有房地產或與地產相關股份，另外25％買股，餘下的作為現金，如此就進可攻，退可守。他特別指出，不要持有債券。

末日博士在他的博客提到，他最近到了美國鳳凰城，與當地的士司機談話，對方說現時當地的5間房住宅，只要12萬美元便可購得，折算港元也不用100萬元，廉得匪夷所思。他說，可考慮購入有關物業，保留其中一個房間自住，其餘4間則作出租……

麥嘉華不相信現金和債券，卻認為要擁有房產，股神巴菲特日前在CNBC接受訪問時也說，如果可行的話，他願意買光美國所有的獨棟住宅。巴菲特表示，美國房市和股市一樣，都是眼下非常具吸引力的投資目標。

對於實物房產投資，巴菲特稱，如果以低利率水平購買並長期持有，房產投資的回報將高於股票。他建議購房者進行30年期的抵押貸款，並且在利率下降時進行再融資。

分析股神的說法，筆者認為重點有三，一是如要投資房產，要選對對象，即只在低價購入物超所值的洋房，二是要長期持有，三是若低息持續，房產回報會更勝股票！

香港正進行特首選舉，自然為市民大眾所關心，新特首7月上場後，其經濟和房屋等政策，估計也會有所變動。有趣的是，有電視台做街頭調查，大多數被訪者原來分不清三位特首候選人的政綱，卻是將關心主要放在黑材料和花邊消息之上。

不過，也不是所有市民如此，筆者曾為《樓市敗局——十大不買樓的理由》第2版寫序的作者金道夫（筆名），便聯同他的另外兩個朋友，剛合作出了一本新書﹕《特首開工喇﹕未來施政通識藍圖》（圖），為香港未來的經濟及社會規劃作出建議，希望未來不論哪人當上新特首，也可作參考。

放寬積金用途限制「儲蓄」買樓更易

該書其中有關房政的部分，指出若想打破「地產霸權」，最簡單方法莫如積極發展新界土地，增加供應，自然便令發展商難以壟斷稀有的土地資源，並建議香港政府應仿效新加坡，放寬強積金用途限制，讓市民更容易藉「儲蓄」上車買樓。

中原剛公布城市領先指數CCL最新報96.69點，指數創11周新高，按周上升1.62%，升幅是50周以來最大。看來，今次「小陽春」威力不小，對於早前沽了自住物業等樓價跌後再入市的人，又要面對一定的心理壓力。

明報記者陸振球

ikan bilis

16-03-12, 12:12

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120316-0000085/Home-leasing-market-to-slow-but-downside-seen-mitigated

Home leasing market to slow but downside seen mitigated

by Ong Kah Seng
04:46 AM Mar 16, 2012

Leasing activity in the private residential market is expected to slow this year as the uncertain economic outlook causes companies to be more cautious in hiring expatriates. But there may be some leasing opportunities arising from recent property market cooling measures, particularly December's announcement of the 10 per cent additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) on foreigners who purchase private homes.

Expatriates who are liable to pay the ABSD are expected to avoid buying private homes as far as possible. Even those who are not liable to pay the duty may continue to lease homes in the fear that housing prices may fall shortly after they make their purchases. This provides some support for the residential leasing market and mitigates drastic falls in rentals.

There are typically two groups of foreigners who buy residential property: The first comprises those who are not in Singapore and purchase properties here for investments, while the other group consists of those who work here and decide to buy a home after growing familiar with Singapore.

The spate of corporate expansions in 2010 and the first half of last year resulted in an increase in expatriates coming to Singapore, whether on partial or full housing packages or on local terms. Some of these foreigners who signed one-year leases may have bought a residential property last year, while some who signed two-year (or one-plus-one year) leases will be ready to look for a property to buy.

But with the ABSD, this group of foreign buyers is even more likely to think twice before committing to a private home in case prices slide after the purchase, particularly for resale homes. Given the new measures, this group may hold back their buying decision and renew leases for a year, or extend by half a year if this is possible.

About 12,000 new homes will be completed this year, in excess of the 15-year average of about 10,000 new units per year. This number is not considered shocking as the recent years have seen rapid population growth in Singapore.

The new units that will come on stream this year will be seen as moderate supply if there is continued economic growth momentum. This means the leasing market this year will be demand-led instead of supply-driven. The real supply-led concerns will surface in 2014, when about 20,000 units are expected to be completed.

The challenging economic conditions this year are expected to encourage new property owners to be more realistic in their asking rentals in order to secure tenants. As rentals for new units become competitively priced, older apartments in poorer physical condition will suffer rental pressure. There may be some "flight to quality" by tenants whose leases expire, to relocate to newer apartments if the asking rents are attractive.

The slowdown is not a new phenomenon in a mature property market such as Singapore. After going through quite a few property market cycles, homeowners here recognise that property ownership and investment is for the long term.

Having a long-term view also means that many owners of centrally-located properties know that they have to "put up a little" during the year by offering more competitive rentals. There can be potential for raising rentals eventually when economic growth picks up pace again. While this reflects increasing the maturity and market sensitivity of owners, it also means that competition in the leasing market will become more intense as more owners become increasingly strategic.

The challenging economic climate is eroding the financial stability of some property owners, including those who have bought homes for owner-occupation.

More owners, including some who bought resale apartments in centrally-located areas for own stay last year and are liable for seller's stamp duty if they resell their properties within four years, are now considering renting out a room or two to ease their financial burden.

Meanwhile, more mid- to senior level expatriates are opting to live in lower-cost accommodation upon lease expiry in light of the weakened economic and business conditions. Expatriates with housing allowances are focusing more on functionality than on luxury, reflecting their sensitivity to the companies' running costs in Singapore.

As such, luxury apartments of 2,000 sq ft and above may lose some shine to the "second best high-end" apartments in the central area. The latter include the River Valley and Somerset area, where "walkability" to the main Orchard Road area can be an attraction to young professionals. Some well-positioned areas like Novena, Bukit Timah, East Coast, or even new growth areas like one-north may also be quite attractive for the mid-level expatriates who are on partial housing allowances or on local terms.

Ong Kah Seng is a director at R'ST Research, an independent property market research firm in Singapore.

ikan bilis

16-03-12, 12:15

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120316-0000061/Land-prices-at-equilibrium

Land prices at equilibrium

by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Mar 16, 2012

A few days ago, a Hong Kong businessman told me he felt that a lot of supposedly "independent" property analysts were bent on pouring cold water on the private housing market in Singapore.

Well, not all, but he is right to an extent. The rhetoric may have cooled somewhat but the negativity remains. I can understand where they are coming from. A number have made judgement calls that housing prices will most certainly head south after the latest cooling measures - in particular the additional buyer's stamp duty - were introduced in early December.

In any case, it is too early for them to admit that they were wrong or else they would end up looking like they did not do their homework and dished out wishy-washy analyses.

Over the past few days, a more matter-of-fact report emerged. This study analysed about 100 bids for government land sales from 2007 until last month. It concluded that developers have been trimming down their bids as they can no longer feel sure that prevailing home prices will hold up until the time they are likely to sell the project.

If this downward trend in land prices can be sustained, it would be welcome news as developers might be encouraged to price their units more realistically or even slightly lower to move their sales as a priority, rather than go for the highest price that the market can bear. This could be the soft landing that I am sure our policy-makers would like.

But is this too good a silver lining to hope for? I am saying this because a sharp and sudden correction does no one any good. Then again, two recent events appear to suggest that the downward trend in land prices may not be as straightforward as we hope.

The first was the "overly-optimistic" top bid for a 99-year residential site along Hillview Avenue 10 days ago.

A little-known company, Kingsford Development - owned by three Chinese nationals, put in the highest bid of S$243.2 million or S$638 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr) for the 136,147 sq ft site. This was a whopping 18.6 per cent higher than the next best bid.

What some of us may not know is that this company had also put in a bid for a previous government land tender for a residential site at Bedok South Avenue 3 last month.

Its bid of S$301.1 million was the third highest, about 13 per cent behind the winning one of S$345.9 million or S$534.22 psf ppr from joint bidders, Far East Organization's FE Lakeside, Frasers Centrepoint's FCL Topaz and Sekisui House Singapore.

I am not sure if these same investors had participated in even more tenders under a different company name or had joined forces with others in joint venture bids. Whatever it is, they seem impatient to secure a site and this could explain the aggressive bid.

The second event was the successful collective sale last week of Seletar Garden for S$96.2 million, well above market expectations and the asking price of between S$80 million and S$85 million. The sale of the freehold mixed development of walk-up flats and shops was concluded after a hotly contested five-cornered fight.

The sale was a surprise for two reasons: One, the selling price far exceeded expectations and two, many of us had thought that the collective sale market was dead and buried. We later learned that there were two other successful en bloc sales which together with Seletar Garden totalled S$145 million since the start of the year.

These two events illustrate the simple fact that there are more developers seeking sites than there are sites for sale.

Simple economics tells you that when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. Of course, I am not saying that prices would trend upwards for sure. The uncertain future will act to cap prices but it is difficult to see them trending downwards under present conditions. Instead, we will likely see land prices fluctuating around a stable price equilibrium.

The Seletar Garden sale also shows us that developers will compete hard for good sites when they feel that these would be a good hedge against the uncertain future. As for Kingsford Development, it is definitely not the first nor will it be the last party to submit an over-the-top bid for a development site.

Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

ikan bilis

16-03-12, 12:20

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC120316-0000096/New-home-sales-surge-in-Feb,-mass-market-projects-lead-the-way

New home sales surge in Feb, mass market projects lead the way

04:46 AM Mar 16, 2012

SINGAPORE - Unfazed by the uncertain economic outlook and the hefty additional buyer stamp duties (ABSD) imposed since December, buyers turned out in force to snap up new private homes last month, as sales momentum continued to surge after rising sharply in January.

A total of 2,413 new private homes were sold in February, up almost 29 per cent from the previous month, and the highest number since July 2009, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said yesterday. Including Executive Condominiums, a total of 3,138 new homes were sold last month, up 51 per cent from January.

Analysts said the strong buying interest was sparked by developers launching attractively-priced projects in good locations as interest rates remained at rock bottom levels.

Ms Chia Siew Chuin, director of research and advisory at Colliers International, said: "The creative promotions and sweeteners dangled by developers in various forms to cushion the impact of the ABSD - such as part absorption of the stamp duty, price discounts, early bird or VIP preview prices, as well as furniture and fit-out vouchers - have also encouraged home buyers to commit."

Analysts said the strong momentum would likely extend into this month although they did not think this would translate into higher prices.

Mr Ong Teck Hui, head of research at Credo Real Estate, said: "Prices are likely to stay stable because there is a huge amount supply coming on. If you look at the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme, there have been quite a number of sites that have been sold already and queuing up to be launched. With that in mind, I think the developers will not be able to up the pricing."

Mass market projects continued to lead the charge last month. The best-selling developments include Parc Rosewood in Woodlands, Guillemard Edge in Geylang, Tampines Trilliant, and Watertown at Punggol Central.

Mr Mohammed Ismail, chief executive of PropNex Realty, added that many of the buyers of these private homes are first-timers or local second-home investors and are, therefore, not affected by the ABSD.

Some analysts think the Government will step in yet again to try to cool demand if the buying surge continues.

Ms Chua Chor Hoon, head of Asia-Pacific at real estate consultancy DTZ, said: "After the December cooling measures, you see that sales volume has in fact increased a lot more in January and February. And if it continues to be at a high level, say, above 1,500 units per month excluding ECs, then it is very likely that the Government will come up with more cooling measures."

Meanwhile, more supply will be released into the housing market, with the Government to make available this month four 99-year leasehold sites that could yield a total of 2,415 homes as part of the 14,100 units under the GLS for the first half of this year.

The Housing and Development Board (HDB) yesterday launched under the Confirmed List of the GLS two EC sites located at Woodlands Avenue 5 and Tampines Central 7 that together can be developed into about 1,300 homes.

In addition, the URA would be releasing two private residential sites at Tampines Avenue 10 for sale. One will be under the Confirmed List while the other will be made available for application for sale on the Reserve List. The two sites can potentially yield another 1,115 housing units.
AGENCIES, WITH ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY LYNDA HONG

ikan bilis

16-03-12, 12:32

=> invest, don't flip... ;)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
奇妙的複式效應

　　如果閣下有1,000元，收取年息10厘，40年後連本帶利可一次過可能收取5,000元。但如果將該筆存款每十年提取一次，再存入，四十年後變成16,000元。

　　若果每年重複提款、存款，四十年後，你估大約有多少錢？根據72定律，該筆款項每7.2年便會一番，四十年共5番加四年複利息，大約46,800元，是不是分別很大？

　　上述這些數學是我小時候，我阿嫲教我關於利息的學問，她常說﹕食不會窮，著不會窮，不會打算一世窮。若果將這條奇怪的複式效應用在投資物業方面，結果比上述數字更加驚人。

　　有一些人，一生中會遇上這些奇怪的複式效應，若能把握機會，結果亦是驚人，舉例說，一些政府公務員，他們每年加薪是會根據兩方面，首先是該公務員年資，其二是該公務員有沒有晉升。若果某人能把握機會，刻苦耐勞，贏盡所有加薪機會，到退休時，他的地位薪金與當初已經不能同日而語，退休金亦然。

　　上述這些奇怪的複式變化，相對投資物業，尤其是投資舖位所產生的複式效用，真的是小巫見大巫，所以，若果在30至40年前已經了解這個理論，今日閣下已經坐擁巨資，但今日重新了解、領悟，說不定亦可以是他日閣下財富的來源。

　　有些人投資物業，見有小小微利，便立即沽貨，其實這是非常眼淺做法。若果今日閣下買一個舖位，雖然只有2至3厘回報，與貸款利息相若，但在買舖位時又要付釐印費、代理佣金，其實不是十分化算，但最奇怪的是，你說不化算，但當買入後又會有人給予閣下利潤。這是投資物業最吸引的地方，經常會令人柳暗花明的感覺，亦是做出快速出售物業的主要原因。

　　其實投資物業最初的回報是不大重要，而業主最大的工作是持有該物業十年或以上，十年後的租金回報才可以說是正式的回報，因為閣下尚可以擁有該物業多年，以購入後十年的租金作回報計算，這會比較好一些。不要說我錯誤，該物業的租金尚有幾十年升值，若以十年後的租金計回報，可能還是業主著數一些。

　　租金升值只是該物業其中一項效應，香港亦如其他城市一樣，不斷成熟，亦不斷進化。商業圈子、生活圈子、消閒圈子亦不斷擴大，當有一日，閣下所買的物業歸納入任何一種生活圈子，這樣，閣下的物業將會大大升值，如果是舖位更加是不可同日而語，這是第二個效應。

　　第一個效應，收租可以協助閣下持有該項物業，不會因為欠供款而轉變成為銀主盤，其實是等待第二個效應出現。假定，十年內閣下所買物業或者舖位未能受惠於城市發展，唔緊要，再等，只要有租金收入，租客替您供樓，一定會守得雲開見月明。

　　有人一等便是40至50年，最近，一個50年前購入舖位出讓，升值600多倍；美孚一單位，封塵40年，升值百倍。這些例子，不時會發生，只要記著，投資物業是需要非常長時間才能見其巨大成果，有可能第一代只是播種，第二代除草，第三代才有收成，似乎不適合現今社會

汤文亮紀惠集團行政總裁

Leeds

16-03-12, 22:21

Higher Feb private home sales raises cooling riskBy Kang Wan Chern

As confidence returns to the market and consumers begin to spend more freely once again, local home buyers are returning to the showrooms, looking for smaller but more affordable units.
Despite the higher number of residential property launches, demand was robust with home sales up by 51% in the month of February compared to January.
In Feb, buyers snapped up a total of 3,138 units, the highest number since July 2009. Excluding the sale of executive condominiums (EC) during the month, private home sales rose by about a third to 2,413 units m-o-m with demand for both old and new properties going strong at 1.1 times.
Of the transactions that took place during the month, about 75% were within the Outside Central Region areas, with about 1,830 units sold. Demand for condo units at new launches such as Bartley Residences (174 units at $1,260 psf) and Casa Cambio (155 units at $1,393 psf) as well as older projects including Parc Rosewood (380 units at $994 psf) were among the strongest. Indeed, Parc Rosewood saw all of its smaller 1-2 bedroom units snapped up, while three EC projects -- Rainforest, Trilliant and Twin Waterfalls -- also saw strong sales.

Meanwhile, 527 homes were snapped up in the Rest of Central Region, with more than half the units sold taking place at the Guillemard Edge at $1,215 psf. Guillemard’s units -- which combine bedrooms with an office -- were sold out in February, “with significant investment interest due to its good facilities and small total quantum,” analysts at CIMB note.

High policy risk
However, the red hot property market could lead to another spate of cooling measures by the government in the months ahead, analysts warn. “We expect supplies to increase from the configuration shift in favour of smaller units,” writes CIMB in a March 16 note. “As developers dangle more carrots to entice buyers, we see strong volumes as warning signs for tightening measures.”
Analysts at DBS Vickers agree. With sales in January and February already breaching 4,200 units – which represents a third of their home sales estimates in 2012 – and sales in March looking good with at least four mass- to mid-market projects up for launch this year, the risk of the government implement tighter policies is high. The upcoming launches -- Seletar Park Residences and Ripple Bay and Palm Isle in Pasir Ris and Sky Habitat in Bishan -- are expected to add another 1,800 units to the market.
“Registration of buyers’ interests is currently ongoing for the preview of the projects and initial feedback seems to suggest take-up should be relatively decent,” DBS Vickers writes. “Meanwhile, increasing number of public and private housing completions should accelerate from 2H12 and could be a drag on price outlook. Hence, we are maintaining our expectation for a 5% drop in average selling prices for this year.”
In that light, the brokerage is recommending buys on CapitaMalls Asia, CapitaLand and Global Logistic Properties to ride out the potential dip in the property market. “Given the higher risk in the residential sector now, we would avoid stocks with greater residential exposure and prefer those with non-residential or diversified focus,” they write.

ikan bilis

17-03-12, 18:01

(BizTimes, sgp) Published March 17, 2012
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Shoe-box factories and unlawful tenants

Khaw puts onus on developers but analysts blame lack of affordable commercial space

By BRYAN KOH

THE shoe-box factory has caught the national development minister's attention, and it's not all good.

Writing in his blog, Khaw Boon Wan said that shoe-box apartments serve a purpose as many singles do find them adequate for their housing needs. 'But shoe-box factories? As small as 50-80 sqm (smaller than a typical 7-Eleven shop)? Can a factory truly operate in such a small space?'

He noted that many tenants of shoe-box units in industrial parks are legitimate non-industrial tenants providing relevant support services to the industrial tenants for which the park is built. 'For example, some are staff canteens and in-house clinics serving the factory workers.

'However, there are some who appear to be unauthorised non-industrial tenants. They appear to be abusing the lower rentals at industrial land/parks for normal commercial/office activities which should rightly be in commercial land/sites. This is wrong.'

He said that offices and shops are not considered industrial use and are not allowed within industrial developments.

But he added that non-industrial activities such as child-care centres, staff canteens and showrooms are allowed within industrial developments, provided they support the main industrial activities and, together with lift lobbies and other circulation areas, do not occupy more than 40 per cent of the industrial development.

Mr Khaw concluded his blog post by putting the onus on developers and property agents, saying that they must make it clear to prospective buyers that industrial units can only be used for industrial activities.

'They must not mislead buyers into misusing industrial land/ parks for non-industrial activities,' he wrote.

When contacted, Dennis Yeo, Colliers International managing director, told BT that occupation by unauthorised non-industrial tenants stems from, among other things, a lack of affordable commercial space.

'It's really a mixed bag of issues. Unauthorised use of industrial land is not driven by the size of the unit. Unauthorised use in industrial land occurs because it is the cheaper option, and also because of the scarcity of cheap commercial and office space.'

He believes that the government must exercise caution in the event that it implements measures to curb the misuse of industrial land, stressing that the issue of commercial land shortage cannot be resolved overnight.

'There is a pressing need for more commercial space to be built and to cater to the small businesses as they cannot afford the rent at prime locations . . . but all this takes time.'

Nicholas Mak, head of research at SLP International, agreed, adding that the government must bear in mind the potential implications that policy changes might have on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

'In order for Singapore to be competitive and provide employment, you need SMEs, and they are vulnerable to economic changes and rising costs. If the government were to suddenly chase everyone out, where would they go? Some would close down . . . while other may go to Iskandar Malaysia and create jobs there.'

Another difficulty is how the government should go about facilitating the process of weeding out these unauthorised non-industrial tenants.

Mr Yeo said: 'The government cannot discriminate between the industries and industrial buildings as there would be repercussions. It cannot be enforced now and the enforcement cannot be phased. If not, everybody would be pleading to be put at the last phase.'

To solve the underlying problem of unauthorised non-industrial tenants thus requires addressing the fundamental shortage of commercial space, he said.

According to Mr Mak, the government can take a cue from the latest Industrial Government Land Sales Programme, where smaller parcels of industrial land were made available. 'One way is to sell smaller parcels of office space, perhaps in the city fringe area. Some suggestions include Toa Payoh or Braddell.'

To ensure consistency between commercial tenants and unauthorised non-industrial tenants who are taking advantage of the lower rental costs, the government could consider imposing a levy, tax or developmental charge, said Mr Mak.

Refining and expanding the present definition of what constitutes industrial activities could be another alternative, said Mr Yeo. 'You can widen the definition and redefine what is allowed under industrial use to include product life cycle. If you are involved at any point of the product life cycle, you can qualify under this definition.'

ikan bilis

23-03-12, 08:37

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120323-0000055/A-two-tier-private-housing-market?

A two-tier private housing market?

by Tan Chin Keong
04:45 AM Mar 23, 2012

The prime and mass-market private housing segments in Singapore are facing starkly different fortunes.

According to recent industry data, while the mass-market segment is still enjoying healthy demand and price increases, the prime segment seems to be suffering from waning demand as foreign investors exit the Singapore residential property market.

Take the January and February sales figures as a case in point. Prime property accounted for only 1 to 2 per cent of total developer sales, while foreign buyers made up only 4 to 6 per cent of the caveats lodged during the first two months of this year. We believe the additional buyer's stamp duty imposed last December is one of the main reasons foreign investor interest in the Singapore residential market has shrunk significantly, thus resulting in the weak demand for the prime housing units in which they traditionally invest.

This development leads us to ask: Will we see a decoupling of the two segments, resulting in a two-tier private housing market in Singapore? Will mass-market prices continue to trend up, while prime prices weaken due to a lack of foreign demand?

While a decoupling of the different segments of the Singapore housing market is rare, it did happen for a certain period during the last global financial crisis. From early 2008 to mid-2009, private residential prices fell significantly across the board - by an average of 25 per cent - while HDB resale flat prices trended slightly higher. However, we believe this decoupling and the strength of HDB prices were driven mainly by a shortage of supply, as the actual completion of HDB flats plunged from around 28,000 units in 2000 to only around 2,000 units in 2008.

Now, looking at the supply conditions in the mass-market private residential segment, we estimate that around 3,000 units were completed last year. We expect this to increase to around 4,000 units this year and 7,000 units in 2013.

The popularity of these properties, especially the so-called shoebox units, which really took off in late 2009 and early 2010, had resulted in the subsequent launch of a significant number of mass-market private residential projects. Factoring in a three-year construction period, some of these projects should be completed by late 2012 and significantly more in 2013.

In addition, looking at the Government Land Sales programme in the second half of 2011 and as planned in the first half of this year, the bulk of the land sales - an estimated 75 per cent by the number of units - is in the mass-market segment. This would ensure that the supply of mass-market private residential units would remain ample from 2014 onwards.

Taking these two factors into account - the narrowing price premium between prime and mass-market properties over the last two years, and the outlook for ample mass-market supply starting next year - we believe any decoupling of the two segments will be short-lived. This means that while mass-market private residential demand and prices are currently still doing well, any potential further weakness in the prime segment could eventually spread to the mass market.

Tan Chin Keong is an analyst at UBS Wealth Management Research.