View Full Version : Will there be an oversupply in OCR Condos?
I have gathered some data from latest URA and HDB figures to determine if we will run into an oversupply situation in OCR.
It Includes ECs and landed.
Total OCR units (Aug 2011, includes recent launches such as Luxurie, Boathouse, Treasure Trove, EUHabitat etc)
= 31,504
Total unsold (of those that are launched) = 2,993 (11.7% unsold of those launched).
Total unlaunched = 5,978
Total No. of units unlaunched and unsold = 8,971
Estimated no. of units coming on stream next 12 months = 14,400 (includes sold and confirmed sites, URA and HDB)
Total estimated no. of units available next 12 months (including existing unlaunched and unsold ones) = 23,371
Assuming upgraders are mostly HDB 5 roomers and Exec Apt owners.
Total HDB resale transactions (5Rm and Exec) last 4Q of 2010 and 1st 2Q of 2011 = 6,155
Projected HDB resale transactions next 2Q (assuming same rate as 1st 2Q 2011) = 4,000
Total = 10,155
So, we have a pool of upgraders who will form roughly 50% of the OCR supply available next 12 months. This is potential demand,
although not all will buy pte condos.
Combined with other private ppty owners, foreigners and investors, we might see a healthy take up rate in the next 12 months.
Current take up rate is an astonishing 88% of those launched units, notwithstanding the US debt and euro crises.
Much will depend on whether the government will roll out more GLS.
The current 4year SSD means that flippers are restrained from adding to the supply pool, for the time being.
The 25,000 BTO flats might take away some of the demand, but developers could also calibrate the supply,
given the current low holding costs and healthy take up rate.
Excluding those fully sold projects (which might skew the data), the remaining projects have sold on average, 70% of the total units in the project, which means
most of the developers have already broken even.
A couple of poorer performing ones (sizeable non-landed) include Foresque and My Manhattan (both 38% sold against total units), but still,
the take up rate is 88% and 71% sold based on launched units respectively.
Only the developers of these two projects know why just about 50% of the total units are launched thus far.
Barring any severe prolonged recession, prices should still hold firm in the next 12 months due to a healthy demand and low interest rate environment. Beyond that will be hard to tell. But, if you are amongst the 6,000 (5 rm and execs) who have sold off your HDB flat recently, would you be prepared to wait 3 to 4 years for the price to fall and then go in and buy? If it is a new project, you may have to wait a further 3 years for TOP.
Brilliant. Thank you.
Anyone has something for the prime CCR districts?
I have gathered some data from latest URA and HDB figures to determine if we will run into an oversupply situation in OCR.
It Includes ECs and landed.
Total OCR units (Aug 2011, includes recent launches such as Luxurie, Boathouse, Treasure Trove, EUHabitat etc)
= 31,504
Total unsold (of those that are launched) = 2,993 (11.7% unsold of those launched).
Total unlaunched = 5,978
Total No. of units unlaunched and unsold = 8,971
Estimated no. of units coming on stream next 12 months = 14,400 (includes sold and confirmed sites, URA and HDB)
Total estimated no. of units available next 12 months (including existing unlaunched and unsold ones) = 23,371
Assuming upgraders are mostly HDB 5 roomers and Exec Apt owners.
Total HDB resale transactions (5Rm and Exec) last 4Q of 2010 and 1st 2Q of 2011 = 6,155
Projected HDB resale transactions next 2Q (assuming same rate as 1st 2Q 2011) = 4,000
Total = 10,155
So, we have a pool of upgraders who will form roughly 50% of the OCR supply available next 12 months. This is potential demand,
although not all will buy pte condos.
Combined with other private ppty owners, foreigners and investors, we might see a healthy take up rate in the next 12 months.
Current take up rate is an astonishing 88% of those launched units, notwithstanding the US debt and euro crises.
Much will depend on whether the government will roll out more GLS.
The current 4year SSD means that flippers are restrained from adding to the supply pool, for the time being.
The 25,000 BTO flats might take away some of the demand, but developers could also calibrate the supply,
given the current low holding costs and healthy take up rate.
Excluding those fully sold projects (which might skew the data), the remaining projects have sold on average, 70% of the total units in the project, which means
most of the developers have already broken even.
A couple of poorer performing ones (sizeable non-landed) include Foresque and My Manhattan (both 38% sold against total units), but still,
the take up rate is 88% and 71% sold based on launched units respectively.
Only the developers of these two projects know why just about 50% of the total units are launched thus far.
Barring any severe prolonged recession, prices should still hold firm in the next 12 months due to a healthy demand and low interest rate environment. Beyond that will be hard to tell. But, if you are amongst the 6,000 (5 rm and execs) who have sold off your HDB flat recently, would you be prepared to wait 3 to 4 years for the price to fall and then go in and buy? If it is a new project, you may have to wait a further 3 years for TOP.
thomastansb
06-09-11, 13:14
To me, OCR, RCR or CCR are the same. If it drops, all drop. If go up, all up. Pretty in line with each other. Of course +- a bit for certain projects.
Brilliant. Thank you.
Anyone has something for the prime CCR districts?
CCR and RCR appear to be doing not too badly too.
CCR:
Total Units = 18,491
Total launched = 13,279
Total sold = 11,950 (65% against total units, 90% against launched).
RCR:
Total Units = 17,361
Total launched = 15,430
Total sold = 13,845 (80% against total units, 90% against launched).
The total units includes those recently or not yet launched projects (eg where data is still not available and reflected as zero sold. Thus, the percentages could be higher.
A couple of poor performing ones include D'leedon(CCR), Eleven@Holland (CCR), Nottinghill Suites (RCR) and The Cape (RCR).
The current massive GLS is confined largely to OCR. So, the supply side for CCR and RCR is limited. When the well-heeled investors return, it might cause a spike in CCR prices since it is not possible to suddenly create the supply to meet the immediate demand.:2cents:
To me, OCR, RCR or CCR are the same. If it drops, all drop. If go up, all up. Pretty in line with each other. Of course +- a bit for certain projects.
OCR can only go up so much due to affordability. But, for CCR, the sky is the limit or maybe as far as the eyes can see into the ocean. People are prepared to pay $19M for an apartment. Try to beat that. Btw, I am an OCR guy. No Vit M for CCR.
This is Singapore. Over the last few years, the housing sector has shown resiliance that frightens durian grabbers waiting impatiently by the sides and simply attracts more and more investors. This is a place where an intricate self-sustaining ecosystem is evolving. External factors like the recent world economic crises at the very best shook the habitat a little and scares away some intruders but that system still survives and restores normalcy in double quick time. Strangest housing phenomenon ever witnessed over the past decade or so! :doh: Today, numbers are picking up again like nothing ever happened! :confused:
OCR can only go up so much due to affordability. But, for CCR, the sky is the limit or maybe as far as the eyes can see into the ocean. People are prepared to pay $19M for an apartment. Try to beat that. Btw, I am an OCR guy. No Vit M for CCR.
can buy 19 OCR apartments lor. Simon is going to be happy after all.
This is Singapore. Over the last few years, the housing sector has shown resiliance that frightens durian grabbers waiting impatiently by the sides and simply attracts more and more investors. This is a place where an intricate self-sustaining ecosystem is evolving. External factors like the recent world economic crises at the very best shook the habitat a little and scares away some intruders but that system still survives and restores normalcy in double quick time. Strangest housing phenomenon ever witnessed over the past decade or so! :doh: Today, numbers are picking up again like nothing ever happened! :confused:
Just like gold.. SG leh, dun park money here for properties park where? So many deep pockets around. I think price still have room to go up. But not sure for 2013. I m still holding on to cash for one.. still have yet found the one to jump in.
Just like gold.. SG leh, dun park money here for properties park where? So many deep pockets around. I think price still have room to go up. But not sure for 2013. I m still holding on to cash for one.. still have yet found the one to jump in.Hope you are not waiting for 2013 to jump in. Just like Jan 2011, everybody talking about the new measures to cool property market and just take a look at what happened since! Its a homerun for the housing prices. No sign of slowing. The recent roller coaster in the DJ and STI did little to dampen the market. The bulk of the slow Aug sales came on the back of the ghost month more than economic scare (I think). 2013 may well not see any price dip. We can trust Singaporeans to plunge in to prevent any dip. Just a 5% correction and investors queue up already. How to see drop? :doh: I used to think prices will come down but I have been waiting till neck long long since 2007 and still waiting. :tsk-tsk: That was probably the reason MBT said he gave up and so retired! :cheers1:
Just like gold.. SG leh, dun park money here for properties park where? So many deep pockets around. I think price still have room to go up. But not sure for 2013. I m still holding on to cash for one.. still have yet found the one to jump in.
U r looking at Bliss@Kovan? Interest rate is too low. It is driving up inflation n property prices.
can buy 19 OCR apartments lor. Simon is going to be happy after all.Yeah man... 19 OCR apartment each rent @ $2.5k also have about $50k monthly rental yield. All splurge on one apartment can hardly gain even $25k monthly rental yield. Anyway, for own stay is a different story lah! :p
kingkong1984
06-09-11, 19:14
Hope you are not waiting for 2013 to jump in. Just like Jan 2011, everybody talking about the new measures to cool property market and just take a look at what happened since! Its a homerun for the housing prices. No sign of slowing. The recent roller coaster in the DJ and STI did little to dampen the market. The bulk of the slow Aug sales came on the back of the ghost month more than economic scare (I think). 2013 may well not see any price dip. We can trust Singaporeans to plunge in to prevent any dip. Just a 5% correction and investors queue up already. How to see drop? :doh: I used to think prices will come down but I have been waiting till neck long long since 2007 and still waiting. :tsk-tsk: That was probably the reason MBT said he gave up and so retired! :cheers1:
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/5660197/for-sale-grandeur-8
Valuation Price: S$ 1,200,000 - 10% below valuation
S$ 870.65 psf (built-in)
1,206 sqft / 112.04 sqm (built-in)
This one already 10% correction. U joined the que?
but I dun think the valuation is right...
12 Ang Mo Kio Central 3 #16-19
$839, 1216, $1020k, 27 May 11
Hope you are not waiting for 2013 to jump in. Just like Jan 2011, everybody talking about the new measures to cool property market and just take a look at what happened since! Its a homerun for the housing prices. No sign of slowing. The recent roller coaster in the DJ and STI did little to dampen the market. The bulk of the slow Aug sales came on the back of the ghost month more than economic scare (I think). 2013 may well not see any price dip. We can trust Singaporeans to plunge in to prevent any dip. Just a 5% correction and investors queue up already. How to see drop? :doh: I used to think prices will come down but I have been waiting till neck long long since 2007 and still waiting. :tsk-tsk: That was probably the reason MBT said he gave up and so retired! :cheers1:
i doubt so for a 5% drop, many will dive in.
just like previous cycle, sgporean mentality like to wait and wait til it bottomed.
OR like to chase and chase the prices skyhigh.
kingkong1984
06-09-11, 19:26
i doubt so for a 5% drop, many will dive in.
just like previous cycle, sgporean mentality like to wait and wait til it bottomed.
OR like to chase and chase the prices skyhigh.
excellent point!
when it is falling and falling..
people start waiting and waiting
when it hit bottom...
people duno its the bottom and still kept on waiting waiting
when it rises...
people know it is out of the bottom and try to play catching
catching and catching for choice buys
then u have people running and running
then chasing and chasing..
lastly... dying and dying lah.
if not its harvesting!!!
linchong84
06-09-11, 19:31
The real correction and firesales will come when STI or some europe countries start collapsing.. People got burnt in stock market and begin to divest their properties in a hurry to raise some liquidity..
Not yet..
According to my measure against gold price (around USD 1900 now), property prices have indeed dropped compared to a few months ago. But we are likely to be mired in stagflation. It's simply more money floating around looking for AAA assets to buy, not necessary better economy.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/5660197/for-sale-grandeur-8
Valuation Price: S$ 1,200,000 - 10% below valuation
S$ 870.65 psf (built-in)
1,206 sqft / 112.04 sqm (built-in)
This one already 10% correction. U joined the que?
but I dun think the valuation is right...
12 Ang Mo Kio Central 3 #16-19
$839, 1216, $1020k, 27 May 11Think you are right to point out that the valuation is questionable! And so the agents strike again. Its always so easy to put a valuation price in their advertisement which is slightly higher than what the banks are currently offering then when an offer comes in, agent will submit request to bank and hope it goes through. Such scenarios occur either when market is very hot and banks are competing like crazy (the current market is not super hot but interest rates are so low that it becomes naturally competitive) or when the market is super cold and banks got no business so will be ready to up valuation (very unlikely coz all valuations in a cold housing market tend to be low to begin with).
There is a good chance Singapore could attract more international organisations to set up, due to political and geographic stability, and proximity to the fast growing countries that do not have serious debt problems. Given the massive problems in the West, MM Lee was correct to emphasize on English proficiency as the West shifts their focus to the East. If that happens and the immigration rules are relaxed for these officials and staff, we will not run into over-supply of condos.
http://www.pmo.gov.sg/content/pmosite/mediacentre/inthenews/ministermentor/2011/January/MM_Lee_stresses_English_proficiency.html
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1151448/1/.html
U r looking at Bliss@Kovan? Interest rate is too low. It is driving up inflation n property prices.
Yep, I am waiting for the launch price to be out. On top of that I will need to see the response and feedbacks..
Yep, I am waiting for the launch price to be out. On top of that I will need to see the response and feedbacks..
My sense is that one will be hot. Good to register to preview first.
Geylang OKT
07-09-11, 07:08
My sense is that property prices are on the way down. If you can wait for another few months, you can probably get at least 10% cheaper across the board.
And if the global financial turmoil (especially on the European front) continues unabated, one will be able to cherry pick projects at least 20% cheaper easily, going forward next year. ;)
My sense is that property prices are on the way down. If you can wait for another few months, you can probably get at least 10% cheaper across the board.
And if the global financial turmoil (especially on the European front) continues unabated, one will be able to cherry pick projects at least 20% cheaper easily, going forward next year. ;)
It would b nice if price corrected by 50%. Imagine a landed property tt used to b $2mil being priced at $1mil.
My sense is that property prices are on the way down. If you can wait for another few months, you can probably get at least 10% cheaper across the board.
And if the global financial turmoil (especially on the European front) continues unabated, one will be able to cherry pick projects at least 20% cheaper easily, going forward next year. ;)I believed that at the beginning of the year but have since become cynical. :D
kingkong1984
07-09-11, 08:25
Yep, I am waiting for the launch price to be out. On top of that I will need to see the response and feedbacks..
http://bliss-at-kovan.com/
Developer did a wonderful joke and making u blur!
cannot really see the floor plans
and how come got free shark fins?
$3 a bowl and $30 a bowl is the real difference.
http://bliss-at-kovan.com/
Developer did a wonderful joke and making u blur!
cannot really see the floor plans
and how come got free shark fins?
$3 a bowl and $30 a bowl is the real difference.Some of the floor plans can guess your way through... but really lousy uploading! :doh:
Double click on the box"1:1" and it will be enlarged. Not bad layout given the floor area for 1 or 2 bedder. Pool view will be quite good. Do take note of the nearby temple. It is about 6-8 minutes walk from the mrt station depending on your pace.
http://bliss-at-kovan.com/
Developer did a wonderful joke and making u blur!
cannot really see the floor plans
and how come got free shark fins?
$3 a bowl and $30 a bowl is the real difference.
ikan bilis
07-09-11, 09:12
heya... guys... some property agents had uploaded all e-brochure on website lah... about all new projects there.... :D
http://www.propertylaunch.sg/Singapore-Property-New-Launch/BLISS-Kovan.php
http://www.propertylaunch.sg/
It would b nice if price corrected by 50%. Imagine a landed property tt used to b $2mil being priced at $1mil.
wah 50%. alot of forumers sure whack a dozen?? or min a few units at a go:D
It would b nice if price corrected by 50%. Imagine a landed property tt used to b $2mil being priced at $1mil.Once it hit 10% or 15% correction, seasoned investors will rush in already. Prices will not fall further! :rolleyes:
To story the oversupply of OCR, ask those central banks to stop printing fiat currency. Cheap money applies to both buyers as well as developers.
Wild Falcon
07-09-11, 10:02
Pls look in relation to the land area.
18,491 units coming on board based on how many sq km? Therefore how many units per sqkm? How many more pple u r sqeezing into the same area?
Then u can see where the oversupply is coming. How big is OCR compared to CCR? OCR is HUGE ranging from Bedok to Upper East Coast to Tampinese to Pasir Ris to Sengkang to Hougang to Punggul to Sembawang to Seletar to Yishun to Ang Mo Kio to Upper Thomson to Bishan to Upper Serangoon to Clementi to West Coast to Jurong to Dover to Upper Bukit Timah to Bt Batok to Bt Panjang to Choa Chu Kang etc etc. so even if there are 30,000 units in the pipeline, is there an oversupply?
And if prices correct, all areas will correct. In fact check out the latest NUS index. CCR is the first to correct. The correction has started.
CCR and RCR appear to be doing not too badly too.
CCR:
Total Units = 18,491
Total launched = 13,279
Total sold = 11,950 (65% against total units, 90% against launched).
RCR:
Total Units = 17,361
Total launched = 15,430
Total sold = 13,845 (80% against total units, 90% against launched).
The total units includes those recently or not yet launched projects (eg where data is still not available and reflected as zero sold. Thus, the percentages could be higher.
A couple of poor performing ones include D'leedon(CCR), Eleven@Holland (CCR), Nottinghill Suites (RCR) and The Cape (RCR).
The current massive GLS is confined largely to OCR. So, the supply side for CCR and RCR is limited. When the well-heeled investors return, it might cause a spike in CCR prices since it is not possible to suddenly create the supply to meet the immediate demand.:2cents:
Anything can happen, once sentiment is affected.
With on-coming supply, SSD, political pressure on migrants/EP - world recession can tip the market over. If Singapore has retrenchments, 20% correction very possible. But for now, low rates and full employment supports the prices.
Once it hit 10% or 15% correction, seasoned investors will rush in already. Prices will not fall further! :rolleyes:
Wild Falcon
07-09-11, 10:04
The way I see it, OCR land area is at like 10x that of CCR. But the supply is onlt 1.6x (30k/18k). It is clear on a per sqkm basis, which area is grossly oversupplied, squeezing in every inch of space. Imagine squeezing in more and more pple within the same sqkm. Can get suffocating.
Once it hit 10% or 15% correction, seasoned investors will rush in already. Prices will not fall further! :rolleyes:
Price may not fall further, but it may remain flat for a long time, and under such situation, most investors would rather go bottom fishing in for bluechip stocks rather than sinking their money in property and be trapped with the 16% SSD.
Price may not fall further, but it may remain flat for a long time, and under such situation, most investors would rather go bottom fishing in for bluechip stocks rather than sinking their money in property and be trapped with the 16% SSD.
Stocks could have been a better option, but even bluechips have seen wild swings and that's scaring investors away.
Stocks could have been a better option, but even bluechips have seen wild swings and that's scaring investors away.
When people are scared that is really the time to buy. having said that, one should only pick stocks which you understand, dont just buy based on hearsay or report.
Problem with property investment now is that is the hefty 40% downpayment and also the SSD which will lock up your money for 3 to 4 years.
And if the property do indeed jump by more than 10% a year while unemployment is still high, then sure there will be more CM to moderate the market.
I can see this happening too. Flat/+-8% movement in property for awhile.
I reckon people look at the stats and they conclude property is a real asset (can touch) and never seems to go down. But those who went through 1997 should realise that it can go down and with leverage/bank loans - the feeling can be equally gut-wrenching.
Price may not fall further, but it may remain flat for a long time, and under such situation, most investors would rather go bottom fishing in for bluechip stocks rather than sinking their money in property and be trapped with the 16% SSD.
The way I see it, OCR land area is at like 10x that of CCR. But the supply is onlt 1.6x (30k/18k). It is clear on a per sqkm basis, which area is grossly oversupplied, squeezing in every inch of space. Imagine squeezing in more and more pple within the same sqkm. Can get suffocating.
If what you say is correct, i.e., CCR is already so built up, squeezing every inch of space, then there will be limited supply going forward, isn't it? You cannot build anymore. In the long term, there will be undersupply in CCR. No? ;)
If what you say is correct, i.e., CCR is already so built up, squeezing every inch of space, then there will be limited supply going forward, isn't it? You cannot build anymore. In the long term, there will be undersupply in CCR. No? ;)
need to consider the demand side of the equation too.
e.g. i build 10 units when there is only demand for 1 = oversupply
i build 10 units when there is demand for 20 = undersupply
of course, we need to look at the market segments and types of demands for CCR units.
need to consider the demand side of the equation too.
e.g. i build 10 units when there is only demand for 1 = oversupply
i build 10 units when there is demand for 20 = undersupply
of course, we need to look at the market segments and types of demands for CCR units.
Agree. Well, if you are "squeezing more and more people into a sqkm", I take it that there is huge demand. Market segment wise, CCR more playing to the world stage and therefore more vulnerable to current US debt and Euro crises situation.
Agree. Well, if you are "squeezing more and more people into a sqkm", I take it that there is huge demand. Market segment wise, CCR more playing to the world stage and therefore more vulnerable to current US debt and Euro crises situation.
however, figures don't show a huge demand leh.......CCR prices declined.....furthermore with reports that gone are the days when expats receive a exorbitant amount of housing allowances, doesn't exactly help boost sentiments about CCR units.
Agree. Well, if you are "squeezing more and more people into a sqkm", I take it that there is huge demand. Market segment wise, CCR more playing to the world stage and therefore more vulnerable to current US debt and Euro crises situation.
We need to remember that the difference between a CCR and OCR region is only a few km away from each other. And the demand for CCR properties could easily swing to OCR when the economy slows down.
Living in CCR is a luxury for many, not really a necessity, and with the massive build up over the last 5 to 6 years, living in CCR is no longer that exclusive anymore.
The outlook for the banking industry look bleak, and this is going to have huge impact on CCR properties.
stalingrad
07-09-11, 11:46
there is no oversupply of OCR condos. upgraders from HDB will guarantee that.
There is an oversupply of CCR condos. the fact that speculators from overseas have vanished will gurantee that.
When your job is on the line - even upgrading can wait. So even OCR is at risk.
CCR - if US/Europe cheapen their money, maybe still got scope to rise.
But once they stabilize and US housing is back on its feet - money will flow back to the USA. Then we have to depend on China buyers.
there is no oversupply of OCR condos. upgraders from HDB will guarantee that.
There is an oversupply of CCR condos. the fact that speculators from overseas have vanished will gurantee that.
CCR has always been a playground for the well off. Except those MMs created by shrewd developers to get those not so well off to play. Supply is almost entirely market driven because there is no gov land. So when market is up, supply will come; when market is down, supply will stop. What u see now is mostly a 2007 hangover.
"supply per sqr km" is nonsense. Pte pty is for the top 20% of the population. Top 20% will choose to live in a place "better". How is it better ? U ask ur self. Why every morning the entire traffic of SG are all coming to one direction ? Pty is not a homogenious product like shares. They are not fungible.
Crowded CCR ? U count nb household per sqm, I bet Clementi is a much crowded town than Holland.
The current OCR phenomenon is a market for the upgraders. With tiny condo size and huge HDB resale price, plus 0 interest rate, developers realize pte condo can now be afforded by 30% of the households, nd they are capitalizing on this. Oversupply probably not, but it's a fundamental shift towards HK style of tiny housing.
CCR has always been a playground for the well off. Except those MMs created by shrewd developers to get those not so well off to play. Supply is almost entirely market driven because there is no gov land. So when market is up, supply will come; when market is down, supply will stop. What u see now is mostly a 2007 hangover.
"supply per sqr km" is nonsense. Pte pty is for the top 20% of the population. Top 20% will choose to live in a place "better". How is it better ? U ask ur self. Why every morning the entire traffic of SG are all coming to one direction ? Pty is not a homogenious product like shares. They are not fungible.
Crowded CCR ? U count nb household per sqm, I bet Clementi is a much crowded town than Holland.
The current OCR phenomenon is a market for the upgraders. With tiny condo size and huge HDB resale price, plus 0 interest rate, developers realize pte condo can now be afforded by 30% of the households, nd they are capitalizing on this. Oversupply probably not, but it's a fundamental shift towards HK style of tiny housing.
The supply for CCR will not stop because there will always be developers looking for en bloc projects in that area.
I would say that only a small part of CCR is fit to be call the playground for the wealthy. Many parts of CCR are so over build and congested that they have lost the exclusivity and charm.
Agreed.
There will always be different phases for adding density.
First build outward (OCR), then upward (previous en bloc), next is build smaller (current en bloc). What's next? Maybe increase plot ratios and height restriction and the process repeats...another 30 years of building.
But the roads system can't handle it and we need to wait for the MRT system to catch up.
The supply for CCR will not stop because there will always be developers looking for en bloc projects in that area.
I would say that only a small part of CCR is fit to be call the playground for the wealthy. Many parts of CCR are so over build and congested that they have lost the exclusivity and charm.
How about the sandwiched region "RCR"?
there is no oversupply of OCR condos. upgraders from HDB will guarantee that.
There is an oversupply of CCR condos. the fact that speculators from overseas have vanished will gurantee that.
The supply for CCR will not stop because there will always be developers looking for en bloc projects in that area.
I would say that only a small part of CCR is fit to be call the playground for the wealthy. Many parts of CCR are so over build and congested that they have lost the exclusivity and charm.
Agree as well. Also, some CCR and RCR projects are separated by a few metres only.
in fact, many RCR and OCR projects feel more exclusive. Those really good CCR projects will be those near to MRT or those in the new prime area (Marina Bay / Shenton way)
Nowadays many RCR or even OCR condos are worth more than some CCR ones, and with better rental yield - nuff said
I believe every regions, "CCR, RCR and OCR", vary in demand on the micro factors like proximity to mrt, malls, schools, etc. The physical line between the regions in the URA zonal map is very vague.
Agree as well. Also, some CCR and RCR projects are separated by a few metres only.
in fact, many RCR and OCR projects feel more exclusive. Those really good CCR projects will be those near to MRT or those in the new prime area (Marina Bay / Shenton way)
Nowadays many RCR or even OCR condos are worth more than some CCR ones, and with better rental yield - nuff said
Agreed. New RCR/OCR condos near to MRT and amenities could be much easier to rent out than old CCR condos.
Do not agree with this statement. Old CCR units which were bought earlier can rent out at lower $psf may still attract prospective tenants.
Agreed. New RCR/OCR condos near to MRT and amenities could be much easier to rent out than old CCR condos.
Jonathan0503
07-09-11, 13:30
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/5660197/for-sale-grandeur-8
Valuation Price: S$ 1,200,000 - 10% below valuation
S$ 870.65 psf (built-in)
1,206 sqft / 112.04 sqm (built-in)
This one already 10% correction. U joined the que?
but I dun think the valuation is right...
12 Ang Mo Kio Central 3 #16-19
$839, 1216, $1020k, 27 May 11
Valuation at close to $1K psf for a 6 year old, 99LH, low floor and in AMK??
It can't be right.
I believe every regions, "CCR, RCR and OCR", vary in demand on the micro factors like proximity to mrt, malls, schools, etc. The physical line between the regions in the URA zonal map is very vague.
This is a more balanced view. There is no such blanket "CCR" area that are automatically "prime" by virtue of a D number.
What is less obvious and often misunderstood is that, CCR freehold properties are primarily market driven, unlike OCR where the Gov has huge leverage controlling the supply. "there will always be developers looking for enbloc in CCR", when market is up. When market is down like 2009 there was almost none.
The current OCR record breaking prices are in psf only not quantum. And it's creating illusions (yet again just like 1996) that pty prices cannot go down due to this and that. Lots and lots not so well off households are drawn to this pty business, no thanks to the mismanaged FT policies creating artificial HDB resale prices. Mass market pties are subjected to the Gov's whims. The moment PAP feels 700k HDB price is illogical or politically incorrect, u will see mass market projects heading for correction. CCR projects by and large a reflection of the SG economy. It's market sensitive, not so much PAP sensitive.
As to "most CCR areas no more exclusive/prime/good/etc", this has been debated a zillion times already so let's not beat that again
This is Singapore. Over the last few years, the housing sector has shown resiliance that frightens durian grabbers waiting impatiently by the sides and simply attracts more and more investors. This is a place where an intricate self-sustaining ecosystem is evolving. External factors like the recent world economic crises at the very best shook the habitat a little and scares away some intruders but that system still survives and restores normalcy in double quick time. Strangest housing phenomenon ever witnessed over the past decade or so! :doh: Today, numbers are picking up again like nothing ever happened! :confused:
quite surprising yes. it's as if nothing happened with the recent financial shocks. Market just resumes it's rise.....
IMO properties which have high capital and rental rentals are prime and not determined that few so call Prime district.
This is a more balanced view. There is no such blanket "CCR" area that are automatically "prime" by virtue of a D number.
What is less obvious and often misunderstood is that, CCR freehold properties are primarily market driven, unlike OCR where the Gov has huge leverage controlling the supply. "there will always be developers looking for enbloc in CCR", when market is up. When market is down like 2009 there was almost none.
The current OCR record breaking prices are in psf only not quantum. And it's creating illusions (yet again just like 1996) that pty prices cannot go down due to this and that. Lots and lots not so well off households are drawn to this pty business, no thanks to the mismanaged FT policies creating artificial HDB resale prices. Mass market pties are subjected to the Gov's whims. The moment PAP feels 700k HDB price is illogical or politically incorrect, u will see mass market projects heading for correction. CCR projects by and large a reflection of the SG economy. It's market sensitive, not so much PAP sensitive.
As to "most CCR areas no more exclusive/prime/good/etc", this has been debated a zillion times already so let's not beat that again
stalingrad
07-09-11, 15:37
This is a more balanced view. There is no such blanket "CCR" area that are automatically "prime" by virtue of a D number.
What is less obvious and often misunderstood is that, CCR freehold properties are primarily market driven, unlike OCR where the Gov has huge leverage controlling the supply. "there will always be developers looking for enbloc in CCR", when market is up. When market is down like 2009 there was almost none.
The current OCR record breaking prices are in psf only not quantum. And it's creating illusions (yet again just like 1996) that pty prices cannot go down due to this and that. Lots and lots not so well off households are drawn to this pty business, no thanks to the mismanaged FT policies creating artificial HDB resale prices. Mass market pties are subjected to the Gov's whims. The moment PAP feels 700k HDB price is illogical or politically incorrect, u will see mass market projects heading for correction. CCR projects by and large a reflection of the SG economy. It's market sensitive, not so much PAP sensitive.
As to "most CCR areas no more exclusive/prime/good/etc", this has been debated a zillion times already so let's not beat that again
OCR properties are just like consumer staples, CCR properties are like consumer discretionary. when economy hits the skids, analysts advice clients to buy consumer staples, and avoid consumer discretionary.
Now, recession is looming on the horizon again. which type of properties will fare relatively well vs. the other?
Regulators
07-09-11, 16:27
A prime condo costing you $3 million is tenanted for $7k monthly, is that good rental to you?
IMO properties which have high capital and rental rentals are prime and not determined that few so call Prime district.
A prime condo costing you $3 million is tenanted for $7k monthly, is that good rental to you?
average rental cost per room in CCR is about $2500. is that sustainable?
Gross rental yield of 2.8% is not good. Over 4% is good rental yield.
A prime condo costing you $3 million is tenanted for $7k monthly, is that good rental to you?
stalingrad
07-09-11, 17:13
Gross rental yield of 2.8% is not good. Over 4% is good rental yield.
even 4% is considered low in the west. In Canada, rental yields exceed 6% to be considered adequate.
All these CCR condos with rental yields lower than 3% are just accidents waiting to happen.
You must know that maintenance cost is a lot more in the west and lending rate is a lot more higher. In my past, my units can get 8% rental yield in OCR.
even 4% is considered low in the west. In Canada, rental yields exceed 6% to be considered adequate.
All these CCR condos with rental yields lower than 3% are just accidents waiting to happen.
devilplate
07-09-11, 17:19
even 4% is considered low in the west. In Canada, rental yields exceed 6% to be considered adequate.
All these CCR condos with rental yields lower than 3% are just accidents waiting to happen.
Wats the mortgage rate at canada?
Wats the mortgage rate at canada?
stalingrad will never reply you on this question
the mortgage rate in US has recently hit a new low at around ... 4.5%
It shall be higher in Canada, I reckon
stalingrad will never reply you on this question
the mortgage rate in US has recently hit a new low at around ... 4.5%
It shall be higher in Canada, I reckon
side track a bit, i always curious to find out, is SG having the lowest mortgage rate in the world? how come we able to keep it so low :)
linchong84
07-09-11, 18:58
Correction in progress!
Pte condo site bid 291psf.. i guess it has been 1-2 years or so since we last seen a <300psf pte site land bid.. It was just months ago when EC land bids are hovering around 3xx psf and nearly touch 400psf.. Now pte condo become 2xxpsf!!!
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p.nsf/PressReleases/A2263A395E48A13848257904002EE210?OpenDocument
Correction in progress!
Pte condo site bid 291psf.. i guess it has been 1-2 years or so since we last seen a <300psf pte site land bid.. It was just months ago when EC land bids are hovering around 3xx psf and nearly touch 400psf.. Now pte condo become 2xxpsf!!!
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p.nsf/PressReleases/A2263A395E48A13848257904002EE210?OpenDocumentIf they bought low and the market is sizzling hot, developer can still sell high and make a big earning out of it! Don't be naive lah! Developers are the most 'kan' people around. They suck you bone dry! :D
if there is downturn, Sg and HK govt will lift up the cooling measures and make them in heating up measures
linchong84
07-09-11, 20:39
If they bought low and the market is sizzling hot, developer can still sell high and make a big earning out of it! Don't be naive lah! Developers are the most 'kan' people around. They suck you bone dry! :D
If ATT really sell at 880psf avg, how can this site sell high? This site area is a bit oversupplied with enormous number of new developments. I think the location is as sucky as boathouse. No views, no amenities, no MRT/LRT, located at junction. If they try to price high, people will just switch to buy neighbouring EC (a lot a lot in the area) or might as well go ATT.
Once again i'm puzzled over why the neighbouring EC sites seem to be better located than pte sites.
If ATT really sell at 880psf avg, how can this site sell high? This site area is a bit oversupplied with enormous number of new developments. I think the location is as sucky as boathouse. No views, no amenities, no MRT/LRT, located at junction. If they try to price high, people will just switch to buy neighbouring EC (a lot a lot in the area) or might as well go ATT.
Once again i'm puzzled over why the neighbouring EC sites seem to be better located than pte sites.An agent revealed to me that ATT ave $880psf is not very accurate. The 3 bedders are actually priced closer to $920psf. Anyway, EC will naturally be better positioned than PCs because site usage/purposes are controlled and regulated. Govt must always ensure that their lowest tier of housing, whether public or private, must be sold before the higher tiers to ensure a healthy housing market. Such strategic positionings help to ensure that! :spliff:
linchong84
07-09-11, 21:10
Anyway, EC will naturally be better positioned than PCs because site usage/purposes are controlled and regulated.
Bro, u joking? How can it be justified that EC location is better than PC! They are subsidised housing and so much cheaper!
You must know that maintenance cost is a lot more in the west and lending rate is a lot more higher. In my past, my units can get 8% rental yield in OCR.
Now getting 4-5% is still not a problem...facts speak for themselves
If ATT really sell at 880psf avg, how can this site sell high? This site area is a bit oversupplied with enormous number of new developments. I think the location is as sucky as boathouse. No views, no amenities, no MRT/LRT, located at junction. If they try to price high, people will just switch to buy neighbouring EC (a lot a lot in the area) or might as well go ATT.
Once again i'm puzzled over why the neighbouring EC sites seem to be better located than pte sites.
If you agree that this is a lousy location, then the bids are realistic. How can you conclude then that such bids signal the onset of a market correction? Only 3 bidders. No one interested in this place and most are keeping their bullets for more plum sites. Wait for the one at Simon road.
devilplate
08-09-11, 00:02
If you agree that this is a lousy location, then the bids are realistic. How can you conclude then that such bids signal the onset of a market correction? Only 3 bidders. No one interested in this place and most are keeping their bullets for more plum sites. Wait for the one at Simon road.
I dun understand y the previous one at punggol received 8bids?:confused:
I dun understand y the previous one at punggol received 8bids?:confused:
Punggol tender better located in terms of being near to LRT, Punggol Plaza and future park.
Bro, u joking? How can it be justified that EC location is better than PC! They are subsidised housing and so much cheaper!Check out the housing types around MRT station all across the island. How many stations are surrounded by HDB and how many are surrounded by condos? Looking at NEL, from Punggol down, Buangkok and Potong Pasir have a healthy mix of HDB, PC and upcoming EC (Buangkok). Kovan has PC with HDB further away. Woodleigh has PCs only. The other stations are jam packed with HDB flats with PCs further away like Punggol, Seng Kang, Hougang, Serangoon and Boon Keng, etc. See the point? :D
Then again I suppose its only natural and expected because there are so many more HDB flats than PCs (80% of Singaporeans stay in HDB flats). More HDB flats will inevitably be situated nearer to MRT.
kingkong1984
08-09-11, 08:40
And when u get one that is close to mrt... Phaw!!! Developer come up with cut throat prices....
And when u get one that is close to mrt... Phaw!!! Developer come up with cut throat prices....
you're definitely right on this! the development just above bedok mrt is rumored to be going at 1400-1500psf!!!! :scared-4:
When is capitaland having VIP preview for this development?
you're definitely right on this! the development just above bedok mrt is rumored to be going at 1400-1500psf!!!! :scared-4:
Wild Falcon
08-09-11, 10:37
Still looking for star architect... kekeke...
When is capitaland having VIP preview for this development?
Check out the housing types around MRT station all across the island. How many stations are surrounded by HDB and how many are surrounded by condos?
actually for the upcoming downtown line, almost all stations are surrounded by private pties. At least for the section from marina to upper bt timah.
actually for the upcoming downtown line, almost all stations are surrounded by private pties. At least for the section from marina to upper bt timah.You are referring to a part of Singapore that govt cannot plant HDB flats otherwise those flats will cost above $1mil and what public subsedized flats will they become? Why Orchard has no HDB flats? Cannot compare with this part of Singapore lah! :o Can talk about EW line from Pasir Ris to Jurong minus the centre region and you will again noticed how many HDB flats around the MRT stations! :cheers1:
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