View Full Version : 2013/4 oversupply? just do not have that feeling leh…
ikan bilis
20-09-11, 23:33
Real estate glut in 2013/4 ??
there will be minor price corrections and price cheong along the way to 2013/4, price up and down, but I just do not have the feeling/thinking there will be oversupply in 2013/4. Main reason of cannot find evidence of big bubble forming or over investment now... :beats-me-man:
- is like there is too much govt restriction now: 40% down, SSD, just cannot find any big bubble…
- people are so cautious now… like this forum… so many bulls… but all non-cheong bulls…
- once in a while there will be Europe financial crisis, USA debt limit problems, middle east political crisis,... all these are holding back people from over investing/speculating in real estate.
- After that 1997 experience, buyers now are more looking at "sustainability" (rental income, employment security, economy crisis) before making their baby steps.
of course there are lots of factors like supply, demand, unsold units, immigrants, rental, interest rate, liquidity, inflation, unemployment, gdp, govt policies, carry trade and etc that really matters…
I’m not looking at these complex factors… it is too complex when all summed up… :tsk-tsk: ...Me small fish got small brain… :D
I’m simply looking from the angle of if any bubble forming or any over investment now... And to make it simple: If i were have to bet if there is any property glut in 2013/4... i will bet on non...
You guys have more experience and what do you guys think ??..
devilplate
20-09-11, 23:49
I always believe that our local property market is more sentiment driven rather den based on basic fundamental of supply vs demand
Recent GLS bidding prices seem to suggest downward trend...:2cents:
iwantgizmos
21-09-11, 00:42
Recent GLS bidding prices seem to suggest downward trend...:2cents:
developer buy cheap cheap, but sell high high...
developer buy cheap cheap, but sell high high...
For sure. ;)
However, bidding lower may also be a sign of lack of confidence. :2cents:
thomastansb
21-09-11, 09:17
More realistically, 2017/2018.
I always believe that our local property market is more sentiment driven rather den based on basic fundamental of supply vs demand
Agreed! Some ppl keep saying our property price should be base on fundemental.. there's all bullshit!
Oversupply is not an overnight phenomena. It gradually becomes more apparently when properties TOP one after another, leading to a quantity bubble. I believe pte condo rental market has started to soften.
The immediate solution is to increase immigration, which I think will happen but in a disguised form. The better alternate solution is to reduce GLS, which has a good chance of happening also since bid prices are softening.
As long as the government takes care of its citizens in terms of housing, education, medical care, job security and political rights, I'm all for immigration to grow our economy.
More realistically, 2017/2018.
Or maybe as early as 2016.. not sure.
There is a side effect of the SSD 3%-1%, especially the 4-yrs SSD 16%-4%. All transaction done from 2010 till 2015, most likely there won't be a subsale or resale of these units into the market for the next 4-yrs. The more units sold, the less units available for subsale/resale later.
Maybe the tap will start to open in 2016 onwards after 4-yrs when owners will start to sell their units (quite similar to COE when the supply will comes in 2015/2016:cool: )
I always believe that our local property market is more sentiment driven rather den based on basic fundamental of supply vs demand
How many friends you know can afford or is willing to pay $4500 rental every month to live in 2 bedder apartment?
devilplate
21-09-11, 10:43
How many friends you know can afford or is willing to pay $4500 rental every month to live in 2 bedder apartment?
recently,most units at clift found a tenant within 1mth upon TOP (realistic landlords) at 3.8-3.9k on average for 1bdr and 5k for 2bdr:D
LOCATIONX3!:spliff:
devilplate
21-09-11, 10:45
How many friends you know can afford or is willing to pay $4500 rental every month to live in 2 bedder apartment?
orchard condos alot r vacant....u can say cant find tenants and rental yield below 3% but their px r not dropping......only drop when deep shyt hit
some seniors told me tat during 96 peak peak, rental yield was very low at around 2% and prices still keep going up until asia crisis hit den everybody wake up....LOL....i also heard tat time int rate was more den 4%.....so basically negative rental yield of at least 2% (borrow 4% and get 2% return)
recently,most units at clift found a tenant within 1mth upon TOP (realistic landlords) at 3.8-3.9k on average for 1bdr and 5k for 2bdr:D
LOCATIONX3!:spliff:
Forget about what peope are paying at the moment. Are you willing to pay this kind of money for rental?
I cashed out on my properties but am looking to invest again...I also have the feeling that correction may not happen so soon, if at all...
Now looking at areas with better potential (read - ulu places where birds dun lay eggs) :D
I cashed out on my properties but am looking to invest again...I also have the feeling that correction may not happen so soon, if at all...
Now looking at areas with better potential (read - ulu places where birds dun lay eggs) :D
Cash out, put your money in the CPF, enjoy the 2.5% and wait. The opportunity will come and when it comes. Only question is if you will dare to enter the market when your job might be at stake.
devilplate
21-09-11, 10:59
Forget about what peope are paying at the moment. Are you willing to pay this kind of money for rental?
who cares whether i am willing anot?
the market out there is so BIG
devilplate
21-09-11, 11:01
Cash out, put your money in the CPF, enjoy the 2.5% and wait. The opportunity will come and when it comes. Only question is if you will dare to enter the market when your job might be at stake.
den how about jobless ppl like me?:o :p
devilplate
21-09-11, 11:03
I cashed out on my properties but am looking to invest again...I also have the feeling that correction may not happen so soon, if at all...
Now looking at areas with better potential (read - ulu places where birds dun lay eggs) :D
actually i feel tat now its better to look at ccr/rcr
even yishun,woodlands and now punggol hit 900psf liao
who cares whether i am willing anot?
the market out there is so BIG
Isnt that very hypocritical to sell something that you claim is value for money while at the same time you wont be willing to pay for it?
when the shit hit the fan, then you will know how BIG is that hole.
devilplate
21-09-11, 11:06
Isnt that very hypocritical to sell something that you claim is value for money while at the same time you wont be willing to pay for it?
when the shit hit the fan, then you will know how BIG is that hole.
totally out of point....expats/tenants vs landlords? i am willing to pay 2200psf for another clift if no 4yrs ssd but r the tenants willing to pay? so wat toking u man?!?!:tongue3:
nvm la....my money wat....who cares......
u and ur GOLD lor.....who cares too?
u tink GOLD cannot correct? drop back to 1k also possible
den how about jobless ppl like me?:o :p
You do have a job selling property, you only dont really have a career.
devilplate
21-09-11, 11:10
You do have a job selling property, you only dont really have a career.
sorry hor, i am NOT a ppty trader
and if u follow my comments since day one, i strongly discourage ppl from flipping
i advocate wealth accumulation
actually i feel tat now its better to look at ccr/rcr
even yishun,woodlands and now punggol hit 900psf liao
ccr lousy rental yield leh
rcr some places still ok but i woul rather look for rcr areas that have been defined as ocr instead :D:D:D
totally out of point....expats/tenants vs landlords? i am willing to pay 2200psf for another clift if no 4yrs ssd but r the tenants willing to pay? so wat toking u man?!?!:tongue3:
nvm la....my money wat....who cares......
u and ur GOLD lor.....who cares too?
u tink GOLD cannot correct? drop back to 1k also possible
I think you should say that you are willing to pay 2200psf for the clift as long as they are suckers out there who is willing to pay ridicules rental to live in them.
Have you ask where are these suckers coming from and what they do for a living?
devilplate
21-09-11, 11:22
I think you should say that you are willing to pay 2200psf for the clift as long as they are suckers out there who is willing to pay ridicules rental to live in them.
Have you ask where are these suckers coming from and what they do for a living?
:sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep:
:sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep:
I can understand, its a boring job
u tink GOLD cannot correct? drop back to 1k also possible
what is your logic behind the gold sudden correction?
devilplate
21-09-11, 11:35
what is your logic behind the gold sudden correction?
gold is a concept....
y gold is valuable?
a roof is a basic necessity, how about gold?
there is a huge gold correction last time and those who got stuck got to hold the baby for so long without dividend but slammed with holding cost instead
u shd also ask those suckers who r buying gold at 18xx now wats their motive and do they really noe wat r they buying into?
how many of ur frens r willing to buy gold at current px now?:tongue3:
bargain hunter
21-09-11, 11:41
Now, for $7 trillion (roughly all the gold in the world), there are roughly a billion of farm— acres of farmland in the United States. They’re valued at about $2 1/2 trillion. It’s about half the continental United States, this farmland. You could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven ExxonMobiles, and you could have $1 trillion of walking around money. And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67-foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, you know, I mean touching it and fondling it occasionally, you know, and then saying, you know, `Do something for me,’ and it says, `I don’t do anything. I just stand here and look pretty.’ And the alternative to that was to have all the farmland of the country, everything, cotton, corn, soybeans, seven ExxonMobiles. Just think of that. Add $1 trillion of walking around money. I, you know, maybe call me crazy but I’ll take the farmland and the ExxonMobiles.
gold is a concept....
y gold is valuable?
a roof is a basic necessity, how about gold?
there is a huge gold correction last time and those who got stuck got to hold the baby for so long without dividend but slammed with holding cost instead
u shd also ask those suckers who r buying gold at 18xx now wats their motive and do they really noe wat r they buying into?
how many of ur frens r willing to buy gold at current px now?:tongue3:
Unfortunately, there is nothing very basic about the roof here in Singapore. 2200psf and you call that BASIC? you must be out of your mind?
Gold is an internationally traded commodity, so you should go find out how many kg of gold is currently being transacted every day, rather than asking if my friends are buying them.
If people buying gold are suckers?? what about people buying property in Singapore at the moment?? SMART?
devilplate
21-09-11, 11:51
Unfortunately, there is nothing very basic about the roof here in Singapore. 2200psf and you call that BASIC? you must be out of your mind?
Gold is an internationally traded commodity, so you should go find out how many kg of gold is currently being transacted every day, rather than asking if my friends are buying them.
If people buying gold are suckers?? what about people buying property in Singapore at the moment?? SMART?
u r the one who say tenants r suckers blah blah....i am just merely using back ur style of debate back to u....let u have a taste of ur own medicine?
a roof is a basic necessity....y bring in a price tag into the argument? trying to confuse?
rather den asking y tenants r willing to pay for ridiculous rental anot, u shd just look at ura website to check out the average rental psf and how many rental deals r done mthly:tongue3:
Now, for $7 trillion (roughly all the gold in the world), there are roughly a billion of farm— acres of farmland in the United States. They’re valued at about $2 1/2 trillion. It’s about half the continental United States, this farmland. You could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven ExxonMobiles, and you could have $1 trillion of walking around money. And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67-foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, you know, I mean touching it and fondling it occasionally, you know, and then saying, you know, `Do something for me,’ and it says, `I don’t do anything. I just stand here and look pretty.’ And the alternative to that was to have all the farmland of the country, everything, cotton, corn, soybeans, seven ExxonMobiles. Just think of that. Add $1 trillion of walking around money. I, you know, maybe call me crazy but I’ll take the farmland and the ExxonMobiles.
Buffet is heavily invested in USA and his investment are all in USD denomination. I see no reason why Warren Buffet would promote gold at the expense of USD.
u r the one who say tenants r suckers blah blah....i am just merely using back ur style of debate back to u....let u have a taste of ur own medicine?
a roof is a basic necessity....y bring in a price tag into the argument? trying to confuse?
rather den asking y tenants r willing to pay for ridiculous rental anot, u shd just look at ura website to check out the average rental psf and how many rental deals r done mthly:tongue3:
When you talk about gold at $1800 an ounce, of course I would have to compare to buying property @ 2200psf because that is the amount you are willing to pay for necessity of having roof above your head.
East Lover
21-09-11, 12:12
I like this "so many bulls here but all non-cheong bulls"! any of you are buying now? or say say only??
devilplate
21-09-11, 12:19
I like this "so many bulls here but all non-cheong bulls"! any of you are buying now? or say say only??
r u tinking i am one of them? i actually totally discourage ppl to buy ppty after 14th Jan 2011 but at the same time, i also discourage ppl for selling their GEMs(if its a overhyped ppty, lousy facing etc of coz can sell by all means)
in fact, i am waiting to sell some if px increase further....hehe
how to cheong wif 4yrs SSD?
buy HDB got 5yrs MOP but ok lor bcoz its 'subsidized' but wat about pte ppty?
devilplate
21-09-11, 12:22
When you talk about gold at $1800 an ounce, of course I would have to compare to buying property @ 2200psf because that is the amount you are willing to pay for necessity of having roof above your head.
u got it wrong la
roof is a basic necessity but gold is wat?
u got it wrong la
$2200psf roof is a basic necessity but gold is wat?
gold is the money that you use to buy the roof over your head and food that you put on the table everyday.
devilplate
21-09-11, 12:35
gold is the money that you use to buy the roof over your head and food that you put on the table everyday.
tats b4 fiat money was introduced isnt it?
bargain hunter
21-09-11, 13:02
gold is:
`I don’t do anything. I just stand here and look pretty.’
u got it wrong la
roof is a basic necessity but gold is wat?
bargain hunter
21-09-11, 13:06
buffett doesn't need to promote usd, nor would he bother.
i just find this statement, `I don’t do anything. I just stand here and look pretty.’
humourous and sort of true, that's why i quoted it. no offence to gold lovers. :ashamed1:
Buffet is heavily invested in USA and his investment are all in USD denomination. I see no reason why Warren Buffet would promote gold at the expense of USD.
thomastansb
21-09-11, 13:35
The 4 years 16% SSD is more powerful. At least we know until 2016, there won't be a lot of firesales going around. After 2016 and after GE, just nice to open the tap big big to absorb the supply..
Or maybe as early as 2016.. not sure.
There is a side effect of the SSD 3%-1%, especially the 4-yrs SSD 16%-4%. All transaction done from 2010 till 2015, most likely there won't be a subsale or resale of these units into the market for the next 4-yrs. The more units sold, the less units available for subsale/resale later.
Maybe the tap will start to open in 2016 onwards after 4-yrs when owners will start to sell their units (quite similar to COE when the supply will comes in 2015/2016:cool: )
...........
how many of ur frens r willing to buy gold at current px now?:tongue3:
I for one bought gold at that price, accumulating physical gold. My Silver futures for speculation only.
Just look at gold in CHF, when CHF pegged to Euro, effectively devaluation, gold in CHF up. Good for those Swiss folks who stored their wealth in gold.
what other commodity is quoted in so many currencies, other than USD?
You know USD strengthen alot against Rupiah, from 8500 to 9000 in just a few days. Even though gold drop in USD, against Rupiah, it didnt go down so much.
Also SGD depreciate also, but the drop in S$ of Gold also not so much.
Jonathan0503
21-09-11, 13:36
orchard condos alot r vacant....u can say cant find tenants and rental yield below 3% but their px r not dropping......only drop when deep shyt hit
some seniors told me tat during 96 peak peak, rental yield was very low at around 2% and prices still keep going up until asia crisis hit den everybody wake up....LOL....i also heard tat time int rate was more den 4%.....so basically negative rental yield of at least 2% (borrow 4% and get 2% return)
Are the vacant ones mostly the big units?
MMs and 1-2 bedders take up rate still quite high right?
Jonathan0503
21-09-11, 13:42
Cash out, put your money in the CPF, enjoy the 2.5% and wait. The opportunity will come and when it comes. Only question is if you will dare to enter the market when your job might be at stake.
Yah, with inflation at 4-5% pa, you will see your CPF saving diminishing in value also
thomastansb
21-09-11, 14:23
Not many people know this... They can see the money grew in number but in reality, it shrinks.
Yah, with inflation at 4-5% pa, you will see your CPF saving diminishing in value also
Not many people know this... They can see the money grew in number but in reality, it shrinks.
shrinks to inflation, better than kena wiped out in market 96/97, 07.
isn't it??
devilplate
21-09-11, 14:53
I for one bought gold at that price, accumulating physical gold. My Silver futures for speculation only.
Just look at gold in CHF, when CHF pegged to Euro, effectively devaluation, gold in CHF up. Good for those Swiss folks who stored their wealth in gold.
what other commodity is quoted in so many currencies, other than USD?
You know USD strengthen alot against Rupiah, from 8500 to 9000 in just a few days. Even though gold drop in USD, against Rupiah, it didnt go down so much.
Also SGD depreciate also, but the drop in S$ of Gold also not so much.
U r holding rupiah, so ur case is quite different from me:2cents:
Yah, with inflation at 4-5% pa, you will see your CPF saving diminishing in value also
I cant think of a better and safer alternative to keep your money if your intention is to use the money for property investment during the down turn.
What would you recommend?
iwantgizmos
21-09-11, 16:05
I cant think of a better and safer alternative to keep your money if your intention is to use the money for property investment during the down turn.
What would you recommend?
Fixed depo...
U r holding rupiah, so ur case is quite different from me:2cents:
What do you mean by different?
Both Rupiah and S$ depreciated against US$ by almost the same percentage over the past few weeks.
Fixed depo...
what interest are you getting for your FD?
Jonathan0503
21-09-11, 17:29
Fixed depo...
FD is worse than CPF interest rate.
Should be less than 1% now
Jonathan0503
21-09-11, 17:30
I cant think of a better and safer alternative to keep your money if your intention is to use the money for property investment during the down turn.
What would you recommend?
Maybe preference shares of banks which i understand is of very low risk and pays 4-5% returns
Jadey, u will love Vietnam
At least 500 tonnes of Gold Bullion – over $24 billion worth – is hoarded away, reckons Huynh Trung Khanh, deputy chairman of the Vietnam Gold Business Council. It's hidden in mattresses and buried in the garden. But gold is not just a store of value in Vietnam. It is also used as a medium of exchange. This is why, in a day-to-day sense, it also functions as money.
You can put gold in a bank and earn interest. People quote house prices in gold, and pay for them with tael Gold Bars – each bar weighing approximately 1.2 troy ounces. This makes sense when you consider that Vietnam is a largely cash society. A single property can cost up to 4 billion Vietnamese Dong. That's a lot of paper to count and check.
Submit blank cheque don't work here, must carry gold bars. haha
rattydrama
21-09-11, 21:41
actually i feel tat now its better to look at ccr/rcr
even yishun,woodlands and now punggol hit 900psf liao
rcr are really undervalued - pale in comparision if we look at Woodlands and Yishun prices. I kept getting offers for my rcr.
devilplate
21-09-11, 22:43
What do you mean by different?
Both Rupiah and S$ depreciated against US$ by almost the same percentage over the past few weeks.
Shortsighted
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