View Full Version : No QE3 - will the property party end?
My outlook now is slightly more bearish. I think it will end next year...
Property party will have to be postponed to a later date. It is war zone now. Even COE is responding to the bearish market.
My outlook now is slightly more bearish. I think it will end next year...
as long as there is iquidity and ft in the mkt i dont see any major crash coming....softening in prices maybe....:cool:
My outlook now is slightly more bearish. I think it will end next year...
Long overdue....without QE 1 & 2, party would've ended in 09. QE only serve to prolong the brain dead with life support. Yet, instead of reinvesting the printed $, companies used it for unproductive measures like share buyback & speculation. We humans are always greedy.
Somebody need to press the reset button.....and I believe even our govt will be powerless....even unwinding of all CM 1-4 will probably be useless as again greed will cause humans to wait & buy cheaper, with or without FTs. Now is still not the time.
I have talked to so many bosses, all unwilling to invest even when they have so much cash. Simple reason, they are not confident of the demand. From 2009 till now, all my review of companies balance sheets show 99% of my clients didn't increase plant & equipment, in fact net value decrease due to depreciation.
Not sure. This can be worst than lethman. Countries and banks will be affected.
as long as there is iquidity and ft in the mkt i dont see any major crash coming....softening in prices maybe....:cool:
East Lover
24-09-11, 09:08
as long as there is iquidity and ft in the mkt i dont see any major crash coming....softening in prices maybe....:cool:
I thought u should be the very person to wish to see the market drop, then can pick up free durian??:D
Option exercised, should be very secure right??
devilplate
24-09-11, 09:09
as long as there is iquidity and ft in the mkt i dont see any major crash coming....softening in prices maybe....:cool:
Bro, i wud expect u to sound alot more bearish:p
Bro, i wud expect u to sound alot more bearish:p
I tink he is speaking from wat he sees and tink and not trying to influence wat other to tink :D :D :D
He is confused:confused:
Bro, i wud expect u to sound alot more bearish:p
stalingrad
24-09-11, 15:31
hot money is leaving the country, as evidenced by the plunging Sin dollar. since hot money normally targets prime properties, I think
(1) prime properties will drop at least 20%;
(2) OCR properties will be almost unaffected, maybe down 3 to 5%.
but if QE3 comes in 2012, and I think it will come, every thing will be back to normal.
CCR units already undervalued? Drop another 20%? Sure? :scared-4:
hot money is leaving the country, as evidenced by the plunging Sin dollar. since hot money normally targets prime properties, I think
(1) prime properties will drop at least 20%;
(2) OCR properties will be almost unaffected, maybe down 3 to 5%.
but if QE3 comes in 2012, and I think it will come, every thing will be back to normal.
hot money is leaving the country, as evidenced by the plunging Sin dollar. since hot money normally targets prime properties, I think
(1) prime properties will drop at least 20%;
(2) OCR properties will be almost unaffected, maybe down 3 to 5%.
but if QE3 comes in 2012, and I think it will come, every thing will be back to normal.QE 3 will come only as a last resort. The first 2 didn't really help alot. More like delaying the inevitable. More practical to implement cost cutting and cost saving measures. The US election is probably the last straw to bring in QE3.
Will not be approve so easily. It will be used as a political instrument. Just like what everyone is talking about ISA now.
QE 3 will come only as a last resort. The first 2 didn't really help alot. More like delaying the inevitable. More practical to implement cost cutting and cost saving measures. The US election is probably the last straw to bring in QE3.
stalingrad
24-09-11, 16:25
QE 3 will come only as a last resort. The first 2 didn't really help alot. More like delaying the inevitable. More practical to implement cost cutting and cost saving measures. The US election is probably the last straw to bring in QE3.
with oil and copper price plunging, headline inflation is going to drop, allowing Bernanke and his deputies to push through QE3 in 2012, unless perry wins the election. If perry or any republican candidate wins, no QE3 and bernanke will get fired.
thus, wait for the result of the presdential election in january. If republicans win, sell your properties. If obama wins, which I think is very unlike, properties will be king again.
Obama will likely to go. Given a chance to change but change for the worst. :doh:
with oil and copper price plunging, headline inflation is going to drop, allowing Bernanke and his deputies to push through QE3 in 2012, unless perry wins the election. If perry or any republican candidate wins, no QE3 and bernanke will get fired.
thus, wait for the result of the presdential election in january. If republicans win, sell your properties. If obama wins, which I think is very unlike, properties will be king again.
devilplate
24-09-11, 17:09
CCR units already undervalued? Drop another 20%? Sure? :scared-4:
Resale undervalued but new launches way way overvalued
The marq shd drop at least 30%:rolleyes:
Resale undervalued but new launches way way overvalued
The marq shd drop at least 30%:rolleyes:
Waiting for them to drop.
when dow is at 8000, you see qe3 coming out.
2012, the year of revelation!!! :rolleyes: If buy now the stuck with SSD for 2012. Hmm...
my views are probably wrong - flat or slight increase in prices for prime properties. Looks like everyone is singing the Teochew song - take care of yourself....foreign investors are taking care of investments in own country- first priority
interest rates are to increase...US cant hold their interest rates low for too long..will kill growth...and later US will just collapse into coma..
demand falling as seen from home index - but due to ghost festival mth or everyone is cautious. home price index dropping.
every company i know is cutting back on expenditure and hiring. where's the growth. no growth no demand
liquidity is tightening for $$$....those with dollar liabilities ...how to source
just need one big conglomerate to announce major losses and kabooom all hell will breaK LOOSE...country in europe is going down one by one..banks suffer losses. Korean banks what happened????
European banks with major exposure to european countries still not clean up their books? what's taking them so long?
back to the old time quote - survival of the fittest. small and medium size firms regardless of which industry will be tested.
friends and I realised that we need to sell off the properties asap and not hold on to prices as interest from buyers is dying. more projects coming to completion. like they always said $$ in my pocket is better than those unrealistic calling prices out there ( i used to ask for unbelievable prices)..my agent told me earlier you better run fast faster than owner neighbours...shld have listened to her earlier
natural disasters will kill supply and people will scramble for commodities and wa lah...another prices increase ...inflation.
dont panic just be realistic and cautious.
You mean with such bad news prime properties will still hold?
I think those that sell at 6k psf will be susceptible to pull backs.
my initial views were prime properties prices will hold or increase
i probably am wrong
mass market will not as well if prime properties cant hold. the onstream supply sad :(
devilplate
25-09-11, 12:17
I think those that sell at 6k psf will be susceptible to pull backs.
Only marq command more den 6k psf leh, the rest in orchard range from 2k+ to 4k+ psf ....
I thought u should be the very person to wish to see the market drop, then can pick up free durian??:D
Option exercised, should be very secure right??
they call it reverse pyschology....:D:D:D
The property bullrun looks set to be over next year. The show is over. Take a bow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihIfM5VVcjk
thomastansb
26-09-11, 14:17
Prime or no prime, if it drops, all drop. No such thing call prime drop but RCR holds. That is bullshit. If up, all up. The thing in question is the % up or down only.
devilplate
26-09-11, 14:20
Prime or no prime, if it drops, all drop. No such thing call prime drop but RCR holds. That is bullshit. If up, all up. The thing in question is the % up or down only.
Previous rd, hdb like nvr drop at all leh:tongue3:
Prime or no prime, if it drops, all drop. No such thing call prime drop but RCR holds. That is bullshit. If up, all up. The thing in question is the % up or down only.Also the timing. Which sector will drop first or rise first! The rest will follow! :D
Anyway, I honestly think it's all speculation here.... We will all not know whether property prices will drop or go up.... I always thinksthat if you can afford it and you need to eithe ruby for own stay or need to park your money somewhere for investment then now is actually a good time to buy as sellers more realistic.... I just spoke to a few property agents, and they all said market slow, a lot of viewing but no committment yet, my conclusion, there are a lot of demand.... Waiting on the sidelines.... Once global market stabilize demand will come back....
Only marq command more den 6k psf leh, the rest in orchard range from 2k+ to 4k+ psf ....
Exactly, outliers are the mmost susceptible in the mean reversion process.
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