View Full Version : In the light of CM5, how many percent correction are you expecting in the next 24mths
how to have the link on the number of voters to show who voted what?
should have drop 80%! :p
poll away...
devilplate
10-12-11, 23:16
poll away...
Y no option for px to increase ar? Hahaha
phantom_opera
10-12-11, 23:19
40% .... garmen target 30%, swing on both sides always exceed target one
devilplate
10-12-11, 23:22
40% .... garmen target 30%, swing on both sides always exceed target one
Sure anot! Bro u more negative den me!
Den we shd all dump all our ppty now except our own roof?
Y no option for px to increase ar? Hahaha
if someone can tell me how to edit the poll i will be happy to add that option in.
Sure anot! Bro u more negative den me!
Den we shd all dump all our ppty now except our own roof?
dont let my posts and lelong pictures scared u le.. :)
devilplate
10-12-11, 23:32
dont let my posts and lelong pictures scared u le.. :)
I still maintain 20% drop on average just solely based on cm5 alone ;)
As for eu bubble, its anyone guess.....big or small? Hehehe
I still maintain 20% drop on average just solely based on cm5 alone ;)
As for eu bubble, its anyone guess.....big or small? Hehehe
if too big, everyone will die.. by then, no one on the street will talk or interested in property. so buy too many, aso hard to sell then.
small.. total discount 30-40%. swee swee
let the buying interest cycle come back, time to sell again
Akira Fudou
10-12-11, 23:59
y would a 10% tax made the property drop 40%? Drop 10% is already consider a break even for foreign investor and a 7% gain for Singaporean based on the current price. Please enlighten me.
Demand supply forces but not as drastic as 40% unless EU breaks up
However drop will be first in D 9 10 11. Every investor was betting on china investors
Doubt anyone here thinks foreign investors are 'lulu'/ idiots
They would Be even more savvy
Geylang OKT
11-12-11, 05:44
should have drop 80%! :p
you are quite close. My take is 70% drop thereabouts. :)
Next 3-6 months... maintain to drop max 10%
6-12 months... back up again by 5% and keep at this level until 2014
Hard to see 2015 and beyond... :D :D
:cheers4:
Yup... 10% from CM5. But if Euro crisis deepens, another 10%. If US crisis deepens, a further 10%. So max will be 30%... Hahahaha! :D
Going by past experiences of the gahmen, if property prices drop more than 20% all cm will be removed
Going by past experiences of the gahmen, if property prices drop more than 20% all cm will be removed
then our govt will be gone case in 2016.....
then our govt will be like malaysia govt standard.....no standard....down the drain....no credibility.....:)
No need to argue.... All will be revealed in due time....
phantom_opera
11-12-11, 08:24
Sti headline big big 30% can't see hah? All sti headlines pap ctrl one, then developer share price high volume crashing 14% to 20% in 2d very bad technical super bear signal as no more upside for investor until after next election, 40% then only reversed out as br will be 988psf then
phantom_opera
11-12-11, 09:06
CAPL/CDL/Wingtai recorded very high volume when gap down ... very bad sign ... it means much more downside to come as big funds unloading
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=C09.SI&t=6m&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=v&lang=en-SG®ion=SG
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=W05.SI&t=3m
We are following footsteps of China ...
Property stocks will suffer quite a bit because of the measure. They were on the downtrend and this accelerated it.
devilplate
11-12-11, 09:47
Property stocks will suffer quite a bit because of the measure. They were on the downtrend and this accelerated it.
Resale market oredi vy dead and wif this cm5, not surprising to see knee jerk firesale now
Resale market oredi vy dead and wif this cm5, not surprising to see knee jerk firesale now
Sure have a couple. Like in Jan.
phantom_opera
11-12-11, 09:53
Similar to the Chinese, low volume for a few months then one big developer cut price suddenly overnight by 20%, the risk is higher than ever especially for big quantum units
Big quantum units are always susceptible when rentals don't keep up.
Jonathan0503
11-12-11, 10:06
Resale market oredi vy dead and wif this cm5, not surprising to see knee jerk firesale now
Just wondering. If resale is already very dead and you don't really see price dropping, why would this CM result in firesale? It would just make the market more dead only right?
Unless we see this trend keep going on for maybe another 1 -2 years and interest rate shoot up (very unlikely given current economic conditions), else don't really think price will drop significantly. Maybe 5-10%...
phantom_opera
11-12-11, 10:09
Just wondering. If resale is already very dead and you don't really see price dropping, why would this CM result in firesale? It would just make the market more dead only right?
Unless we see this trend keep going on for maybe another 1 -2 years and interest rate shoot up, else don't really think price will drop significantly. Maybe 5-10%...
If so confident, In this case buy property stocks better right? down 14% for cdl already, that means those who sell write off sg resudential profit oredi
Property stocks technically like fiat money can print infinitely. Expansion of physical space is not as easily done.
rattydrama
11-12-11, 10:17
Just wondering. If resale is already very dead and you don't really see price dropping, why would this CM result in firesale? It would just make the market more dead only right?
Unless we see this trend keep going on for maybe another 1 -2 years and interest rate shoot up (very unlikely given current economic conditions), else don't really think price will drop significantly. Maybe 5-10%...
i think it is all about confidence level. some with multiple properties wud now try to lower down their exposure and keep more cash for future opportunities. and even if they sell at 10-20% discount now, they are still able to make as their entry price is still lower than the asking price now.
i think it is all about confidence level. some with multiple properties wud now try to lower down their exposure and keep more cash for future opportunities. and even if they sell at 10-20% discount now, they are still able to make as their entry price is still lower than the asking price now.Whatever it is, if need to sell, sell now. Don't wait till prices drop 20% or more then cry miss boat... :scared-3:
Whatever it is, if need to sell, sell now. Don't wait till prices drop 20% or more then cry miss boat... :scared-3:
this time is not miss boat, is sink the boat.
Titanic 2:scared-4:
rattydrama
11-12-11, 10:46
Whatever it is, if need to sell, sell now. Don't wait till prices drop 20% or more then cry miss boat... :scared-3:
quite confident rental still can hold. Replacement cost is high as will kenna another 3% + 4yr SSD if i intend to buy next property. Some more need to reduce price to let go.. no thanks, just use the rental to pay installments.
some still BUC sell to who? :p No choice hold lor.
Singapore is small, we should be quite nimble to glide like a fish in this perfect storm.:p
devilplate
11-12-11, 10:54
quite confident rental still can hold. Replacement cost is high as will kenna another 3% + 4yr SSD if i intend to buy next property. Some more need to reduce price to let go.. no thanks, just use the rental to pay installments.
some still BUC sell to who? :p No choice hold lor.
Singapore is small, we should be quite nimble to glide like a fish in this perfect storm.:p
Rental shd hold provided no major retrenchment hor....
Eu burst...tats it....
Those who bot low n only take 50% loan shd b ok.....i dun see how int rate can go up....
But one thing vy sad....inflation may go higher and yet rental and salary may drop....
Rental shd hold provided no major retrenchment hor....
Eu burst...tats it....
as i said, EU better dont burst too early.. in 2013-2014 swee la.
by then we can set up a survivalscondosingapore.com
It all boils down to the holding power of property owners. Low interest rates and liquidity on the sidelines have resulted in strong holding power. Volume will likely drop because the majority of buyers expect a price cut while the majority of sellers refuse to drop their asking prices.
Unless holding power is impacted by economic recession (which affects income and correspondingly the ability to hold), the stand-off should last for quite a while.
The U.S. economy is already showing signs of recovery with job numbers and other indicators improving somewhat stealthily and may, ironically, be the one to lead the world out of the woods. Obama will definitely want to receive credit for this so the good news has to be released in time for his re-election campaign.
It is also probable that the U.S. Fed will embark on QE3 to hasten this process. Given that the biggest consumer in the world is the U.S., this portends well for the big producers of the world also.
Just wondering. If resale is already very dead and you don't really see price dropping, why would this CM result in firesale? It would just make the market more dead only right?
Unless we see this trend keep going on for maybe another 1 -2 years and interest rate shoot up (very unlikely given current economic conditions), else don't really think price will drop significantly. Maybe 5-10%...
The local property counters are oversold. Once the initial panic/fear fades, buying interest will return.
If so confident, In this case buy property stocks better right? down 14% for cdl already, that means those who sell write off sg resudential profit oredi
Whatever it is, if need to sell, sell now. Don't wait till prices drop 20% or more then cry miss boat... :scared-3:
Sell now got ppl buy meh?
This is the reason why the swings are extreme. :) Greed and fear leading to quick surges and falls.
Whatever it is, if need to sell, sell now. Don't wait till prices drop 20% or more then cry miss boat... :scared-3:
Sell now got ppl buy meh?
nobody buy one la..
i already post 2 firesales, cheaper by 81k and another unit by 125k
who's buying..?? pls update us
devilplate
11-12-11, 11:06
Y not lets guess wats the sales volume for jan.....500? hehehe
There are also many who have ample ammunition (in spite of already having one or two investment properties with strong rental income on-hand) and are gunning for prices to fall so that they can accumulate more at lower prices.
i think it is all about confidence level. some with multiple properties wud now try to lower down their exposure and keep more cash for future opportunities. and even if they sell at 10-20% discount now, they are still able to make as their entry price is still lower than the asking price now.
Jonathan0503
11-12-11, 11:08
Whatever it is, if need to sell, sell now. Don't wait till prices drop 20% or more then cry miss boat... :scared-3:
If got ability to hold 5-10 years, why want to sell at discount now?
devilplate
11-12-11, 11:08
There are also many who have ample ammunition (in spite of already having one or two investment properties with strong rental income on-hand) and are gunning for prices to fall so that they can accumulate more at lower prices.
Toking abt urself?
I doubt this number is big la......just a small handful ;)
devilplate
11-12-11, 11:10
If got ability to hold 5-10 years, why want to sell at discount now?
Den dun sell
For those who oredi got gd cash on hand ....dun really hf to sell unless u can find a silly buyer to makan ur unit at only 5-10% discount......hehehe
nobody buy one la..
i already post 2 firesales, cheaper by 81k and another unit by 125k
who's buying..?? pls update us
Exactly. Also seller not stupid to be the first mover to drop pants if they can hold or get rent.
However I think garment has not solved liquidity problem, particularly those who have $50K or $100K cash. One way to safeguard that cash if you have not any property is still to buy newly launched units. Buyers have 3 years to pay and if by the time TOP can earn 15% more, it's ok.
As long as interest rate is near zero, developers will cheong and some will bite.
My views alone will not change how the market behaves. :)
I am neither bullish nor bearish but as part of investment discipline, I do try to read into events to determine the impact and adjust my actions accordingly.
Toking abt urself?
I doubt this number is big la......just a small handful ;)
If got ability to hold 5-10 years, why want to sell at discount now?Yes yes... I'm saying 'if need to sell' meaning no holding power... :o
Indeed, it is crucial to look beyond short-term aberrations in the markets. Acting on greed and fear in anything is a recipe for regret.
Exactly. Also seller not stupid to be the first mover to drop pants if they can hold or get rent.
However I think garment has not solved liquidity problem, particularly those who have $50K or $100K cash. One way to safeguard that cash if you have not any property is still to buy newly launched units. Buyers have 3 years to pay and if by the time TOP can earn 15% more, it's ok.
As long as interest rate is near zero, developers will cheong and some will bite.
rattydrama
11-12-11, 11:24
Rental shd hold provided no major retrenchment hor....
Eu burst...tats it....
Those who bot low n only take 50% loan shd b ok.....i dun see how int rate can go up....
But one thing vy sad....inflation may go higher and yet rental and salary may drop....
worse case scenerio, fight with HDB rental rate. hope it will not be too long.
hold tight tight during this period.
worse case scenerio, fight with HDB rental rate. hope it will not be too long.
hold tight tight during this period.
How much is hdb rental $2500?
rattydrama
11-12-11, 11:27
There are also many who have ample ammunition (in spite of already having one or two investment properties with strong rental income on-hand) and are gunning for prices to fall so that they can accumulate more at lower prices.
adversity means opportunity.
worse case scenerio, fight with HDB rental rate. hope it will not be too long.
hold tight tight during this period.
this period? As phantom forumer mention 5-7yrs zero growth.
this period will be pretty long time
Indeed. :)
adversity means opportunity.
rattydrama
11-12-11, 11:31
How much is hdb rental $2500?
thereabout..half price my rental should still be able to hold on for few years n rental can help to offset your interest and principal.
buying ppty is all about holding power.
devilplate
11-12-11, 11:32
How much is hdb rental $2500?
Sars period, hdb 3 rm flat 800-900, 2bdr ocr 1-1.5k
phantom_opera
11-12-11, 11:39
Is property still the best investment class in sg? Is thus cm5 signalling a switch of pap stance?
Could it be that tharman knows from his connections at the IMF that US definitely recovering and euro going to print money and buy euro bonds then all these funds will come looking for yield in sin and Asia hence gahmen is preempting another big surge in prices like in early 2009 ?
Or else why would they implement policies that target foreigners when its the locals that are driving up OCR condo?
Tharman is one of the smartest people in the cabinet today but even he will not know for sure as these have not been cast in concrete. He can only act based on probabilities. For him to embark on these pre-emptive measures means that the probabilities of these happening are very high.
Could it be that tharman knows from his connections at the IMF that US definitely recovering and euro going to print money and buy euro bonds then all these funds will come looking for yield in sin and Asia hence gahmen is preempting another big surge in prices like in early 2009 ?
Or else why would they implement policies that target foreigners when its the locals that are driving up OCR condo?
thereabout..half price my rental should still be able to hold on for few years n rental can help to offset your interest and principal.
buying ppty is all about holding power.Yes yes... must project a low low rental yield and assess if one can still commit to the mortgage payment before jumping into the fray... :cheers5:
I suspect HDB rental, being the lowest tier of the rental market, should hold out as rental demands might potentially go up... Think a 5 room in an ulu place can easily fetch $2.5k indeed! :cheers6:
Could it be that tharman knows from his connections at the IMF that US definitely recovering and euro going to print money and buy euro bonds then all these funds will come looking for yield in sin and Asia hence gahmen is preempting another big surge in prices like in early 2009 ?
Or else why would they implement policies that target foreigners when its the locals that are driving up OCR condo?
educate me. Isn't there already alot of liquidity in the market. What is the scenario you are talking about. -ve interest rate?
Allthepies
11-12-11, 11:54
Sars period, hdb 3 rm flat 800-900, 2bdr ocr 1-1.5k
Hdb will be worst hit, rental or sale wise... At this rental/price rate, most prefer to rent or buy OCR condos:D
Yes yes... must project a low low rental yield and assess if one can still commit to the mortgage payment before jumping into the fray... :cheers5:
I suspect HDB rental, being the lowest tier of the rental market, should hold out as rental demands might potentially go up... Think a 5 room in an ulu place can easily fetch $2.5k indeed! :cheers6:
No point just being able to hold. You also need to have spare ammunition to pick up new gems:cheers4:
The whole Euro-fiasco is about obtaining power and control. With the EU fiscal compact, effectively all the EU member nations are now subject to tight controls when it comes to their budgeting, spending (and consequently likely their incomes as well).
Without the massive debt problems that the member nations have landed themselves in, would they agree to subject themselves to such tight controls?
Monetary expansion is one of the tools that are used in this political game. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your stance), one of the consequences of this is an increase in inflation due to the increased money supply in the system (and also increased liquidity).
Fiat currencies thus get devalued over time and sooner than later, banks will begin to charge depositors a fee to safekeep their money because they are so flushed with money.
educate me. Isn't there already alot of liquidity in the market. What is the scenario you are talking about. -ve interest rate?
Down 14% for CityDev can buy mah? Now $9.xx. Last time I bought at <$5.00 in late 2008- early 2009 (and already sold at $14.xx). Must down >45% or below $5.00 to be worth the while! Remember, this round is worse than Lehman! World-wide global recession cum crisis coming! :scared-1:
Citizens & PRs buying 1st property, you wanna buy because the rules have been changed to favor you? :banghead:
If so confident, In this case buy property stocks better right? down 14% for cdl already, that means those who sell write off sg resudential profit oredi
Allthepies
11-12-11, 12:24
Citizens & PRs buying 1st property, you wanna buy because the rules have been changed to favor you? :banghead:
Most will wait for many years until they miss their boats again :doh:
Most will wait for many years until they miss their boats again :doh:
Brudder. Smtimes it's may be good to missed a leaking boat.
Look at this forum, some just bgt their 1st property before can smell the profits or topped to stay. gonna sit on losses
Come to think of it, if this property down will persist more than 4 years, then the SSD is as good as no CM liao... time for govt to remove that CM coz the market itself is already a deterrent for owners to sell liao! :)
Allthepies
11-12-11, 12:32
Brudder. Smtimes it's may be good to missed a leaking boat than some just bgt their 1st property before can smell the profits or topped to stay. gonna sit on losses
U wouldn't want to wait for many years before u bought ur place call home.... I'm referring to those who buying for stay
Hdb will be worst hit, rental or sale wise... At this rental/price rate, most prefer to rent or buy OCR condos:DWhy HDB worst hit... I suspect HDB the least hit coz all 1st time buyers or 1 property owners only so CM5 has absolutely no direct influence. If its indirect influence, it must be other sectors kana until smelly smelly already then HDB will kana... :rolleyes:
rattydrama
11-12-11, 13:07
Yes yes... must project a low low rental yield and assess if one can still commit to the mortgage payment before jumping into the fray... :cheers5:
I suspect HDB rental, being the lowest tier of the rental market, should hold out as rental demands might potentially go up... Think a 5 room in an ulu place can easily fetch $2.5k indeed! :cheers6:
i believed in worst case scenerio if the rental can cover the interest rate of your mortgage we are still able to breath and thus no need to lelong your ppty.
However, if you lost your job then tats different story.
rattydrama
11-12-11, 13:12
Is property still the best investment class in sg? Is thus cm5 signalling a switch of pap stance?
so far ppty price nvr down becos of cooling measures abeit looks like it is abit harsh.... my guess is it is preparing of the unknown so that there is a cushion for all.
prudent to stop the running up of prices now. the higher you climb the hardest you fall. prepare for the next bull run... LOL which is in 5-7 yrs but again cycle is shorter now.
i believed in worst case scenerio if the rental can cover the interest rate of your mortgage we are still able to breath and thus no need to lelong your ppty.
However, if you lost your job then tats different story.Sad sad... lazy little me thinking of entering semi-retirement but in order to still sustain my properties in the face of an impending recession, me need to shelf my thoughts till maybe I'm a little later... Lol! :cool:
so far ppty price nvr down becos of cooling measures abeit looks like it is abit harsh.... my guess is it is preparing of the unknown so that there is a cushion for all.
prudent to stop the running up of prices now. the higher you climb the hardest you fall. prepare for the next bull run... LOL which is in 5-7 yrs but again cycle is shorter now.You are right to point out that the most recent CM look abit harsh but I suspect that's all to it... only look but in actual fact, its only harsh to foreigners lah... still ok to the majority of buyers. And yes, cycle is shorter now or is it just coz we're still in the previous recession.. aka double dip? :cheers6:
rattydrama
11-12-11, 13:20
Hdb will be worst hit, rental or sale wise... At this rental/price rate, most prefer to rent or buy OCR condos:D
I am sure gov will do something about it. curb GLS, walk in selection, no more COV, 5% downpayment, IAS, deferred payment, no ppty tax, no stamp duty. It is enough to tie over. LOL
hopefully whatever extra SD collected from us since CM1, gov will return back to us. how nice!
rattydrama
11-12-11, 13:29
No point just being able to hold. You also need to have spare ammunition to pick up new gems:cheers4:
depending on individua lah... you can sell low and buy low to re-adjust your portfolio. someone say anal-list could be wrong. LOL. we are not GOD.
rattydrama
11-12-11, 13:32
You are right to point out that the most recent CM look abit harsh but I suspect that's all to it... only look but in actual fact, its only harsh to foreigners lah... still ok to the majority of buyers. And yes, cycle is shorter now or is it just coz we're still in the previous recession.. aka double dip? :cheers6:
double dip is a W right? so we are coming to the 2nd V which means bull is also coming?
ok let it drop 30% first and bounced back. I am sure all bros and sis here will be very happy.
I would like to vote for one of the categories that's not listed: price will increase.
Here's my guess:
Over the next 6 months, price will drop.
Subsequent 6 months, price will start to rise slowly.
By the end of 24 mths, the price would have increased.
Think about it, when SSD was increased this year, there was a pause, then 5 months later all hell broke loose. :hell-hath-no-fury:
Our government's job is for property value to increase over time. They will not impose policies to make the market crash. They want to achieve sustainable growth. They themselves own lots of properties! :rolleyes:
As much as govt don't want property prices to fall, they don't want it to rise too quickly either... 'additional'BSD means they will remove it once they achieve what they hoped for. If prices start to climb quickly again after 6 months (as you've projected), CM6 will be launched. Like you've rightly pointed out that the Jan CM allowed short period of cooling before prices took off again and thus the introduction of CM5. Anyway, I guess all these price fluctuations must be balanced together with the world wide economic uncertainties also... :scared-2:
Down 14% for CityDev can buy mah? Now $9.xx. Last time I bought at <$5.00 in late 2008- early 2009 (and already sold at $14.xx). Must down >45% or below $5.00 to be worth the while! Remember, this round is worse than Lehman! World-wide global recession cum crisis coming! :scared-1:
Citizens & PRs buying 1st property, you wanna buy because the rules have been changed to favor you? :banghead:
Is it true that CDL and some of the bigger guns have waiver on the 5 years development and completion rule ?
If so, time to pick up some bargains and invest in some of the better bonds.
then our govt will be gone case in 2016.....
then our govt will be like malaysia govt standard.....no standard....down the drain....no credibility.....:)
They already lost their credibility since GE. Saying pragmatic but action populist.
On hind sight, you guys were a little too pessimistic...
On hind sight, you guys were a little too pessimistic...
Property guru today news reads private property more affordable than resale based on affordability index
Actions taken should be in the public housing not private. Used to support miw........
Housing grants for the 10-12k income earners really a super big joke. Should be better spend on the low income and the needy. Very disgusting.
Property guru today news reads private property more affordable than resale based on affordability index
Actions taken should be in the public housing not private. Used to support miw........
Housing grants for the 10-12k income earners really a super big joke. Should be better spend on the low income and the needy. Very disgusting.
Report ignores e diff btw market price n BTO price tt buyer can reap as profit. The price diff is e other way round for pte. But I agree $12k shd not enjoy subsidy, n PR shd not b allowed to buy BTO so easily.
Price correction? Hardly... maybe in some districts in CCR but OCR??? HDB resale still up up up... :scared-4:
just realised i started this poll. it's been a tale of 2 regions thus far, CCR vs RCR/OCR.
Interim check on my projection at Q1 2012:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?p=218290&highlight=landed#post218290
Not too bad so far! :)
you were pretty close. :cheers5: OCR more than 500m didn't go down right?
Yes, prices remain firm, but cldnt move up higher. Temporary only. Waiting for more COEs to expire to break e ceiling.
Yes, prices remain firm, but cldnt move up higher. Temporary only. Waiting for more COEs to expire to break e ceiling.
Bulk of the coe will mature from 2016 onwards.
Yes. A smaller wave will come in 2013-2014. Tt's when warranty expires n pp need to change cars.
Yes. A smaller wave will come in 2013-2014. Tt's when warranty expires n pp need to change cars.
Yup, you'll probably get more 2nd hand bmw and merc on thenroad as the warranty expires.
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