View Full Version : Impact of the ABSD
I read from some articles and find them interesting to share :
1) Transaction cost for investors will increase substantially, killing
investment demand. Foreigners and companies will be the hardest hit. For example for a $1 million dollar purchase, the effective buyer’s stamp duty will increase from $24,600 to $124,600, a $100,000 or 500% increase! The effective tax rate will increase from 2.5% to 12.5%. This will effectively stamp out any investment demand from all but the wealthiest who may have other noninvestment considerations.
2) Even for Singaporeans who already own two and PRs who own one unit, they will
be heavily discouraged from investing in property as their effective stamp duty for the $1 million purchase will increase from $24,600 to $54,600, a 220% increase. The message to the rich is clear: “Don’t invest in residential properties.”
Transaction volumes will fall. Some analysts are looking for a 20% fall in volumes next year. With investing sentiments dampened by the continuous stream of government measures and the unstable economy in Developed countries, this is quite probable. Bid-ask spreads between buyers and sellers will increase, tanking volumes and setting the
stage for price decreases later.
3) The impact on prices will be negative but uncertain. The measures were
unexpected as property price momentum has already been falling for the past eight quarters. Some analysts expect a 10-15% fall in prices, but the impact is uncertain as interest rates remain low and unemployment hasn’t rise, so property owners still have holding power. Furthermore economists are still expecting a 3-5% GDP growth rate for Singapore in 2012, which is not bad, although this number is volatile and can be revised downwards quickly if the external environment deteriorates. The large spike in supply is expected in 2014- 2015 so the market could be hit then if
this measure is still in place.
4) Foreigners will shrink as a percentage of all buyers. The recent wave of
foreigners (especially the Chinese) coming to Singapore to buy property will
think twice. Foreigners (excluding PRs) made up 18% of new units sold in 3Q11, versus ~15% in 1H11 and the last peak of 15% in 2007.
Negative impact on high-end market will be larger. The impact is likely to be
larger on the high end residential market as the share of foreign buyers there is higher. Foreigners (excluding PRs) and companies accounted for 34% of new sales in 3Q11 versus 17% in suburban locations. Some analysts are predicting a 40% fall in volumes in prime districts.
to be continued...
5) IRAS levy the ABSD on developers if they fail to sell all the units in a residential project within five years. Developers will thus be more careful about stocking up on land
bank unless they are sure they can develop and sell it within that timeframe.
Developers are also incentivized to cut prices to move inventory if they are
approaching this deadline. As the ABSD is based on land price, the impact is likely to be less significant versus general sentiment and investment interest.
Investors may focus on the commercial market instead. Now that the residential property market has been effectively closed to investors both local and foreign, will they turn their attention to the commercial property market? The problem is that with an uncertain global environment and Singapore’s open economy, office and industrial rents could also moderate.
All things considered, it is believed that the ABSD
will be the turning point of the market. Given
the current negative sentiment and slowing
price growth (prices were up just 1.3% in
3Q11), these heavy-handed measures are
likely to be the straw that breaks the camel’s
back and may mark the turning point of the
property cycle. 2012 could turn out to be a
year of woe for those who are heavily invested
and leveraged, and one of bargain hunting for
cashed-up long term investors and end users
phantom_opera
13-12-11, 09:03
China/HK turned already then we follow, we already a laggard,
China A down 0.9% at 2270 .... if the world factory is not making profit ... u know what happen la
Looking hard at the CM,it does not much affect locals buying their first and second properties. Even if the locals want to buy their 3rd or 4th properties, they could always use their family members to buy in name instead. Unless there is a serious crisis outbreak or negative economic grow or big retrenchment, the locals may fill the gap of the foreigners. This is a possible scenario which could not be ruled out.
Looking hard at the CM,it does not much affect locals buying their first and second properties. Even if the locals want to buy their 3rd or 4th properties, they could always use their family members to buy in name instead. Unless there is a serious crisis outbreak or negative economic grow or big retrenchment, the locals may fill the gap of the foreigners. This is a possible scenario which could not be ruled out.
why do locals buy..?
- capital gain,
- hot monies,
- to sell to foreigners..
so if there's no-foreigners to sell to, then sell to locals..?
u scratch my back, and i scratch urs..? or u sell me urs, and i sell u mine.??
now, locals have little hopes in buying now, and to sell to anyone for profits in future
phantom_opera
13-12-11, 09:10
Our PAP is no way as harsh as CCP but it can be :tsk-tsk:
Jim Rogers:
Some Parts Of The Chinese Economy Are Going To Have A Hard Landing
Some parts of the Chinese economy are going to have a hard landing. The Chinese for two years now have been tightening up. They have raised interest rates six times. They have raised reserve requirements a dozen times. Just recently they started to loosen this up a little bit but they are trying. They are trying to bring down real estate, they are trying to make real estate developers go bankrupt so you are going to have a hard landing to use your terms in things like property in China.
But other parts of the Chinese economy are going to continue to boom: water treatment, agriculture, farmers are not going to know that the real estate speculators in Beijing and Shanghai are going bankrupt because they are working too hard and making too much money so you are going to have sectors of the Chinese economy with serious problems but it’s not the whole Chinese economy. It’s not like it was here. - in The Globe & Mail
phantom_opera
13-12-11, 09:11
why do locals buy..?
- capital gain,
- hot monies,
- to sell to foreigners..
so if there's no-foreigners to sell to, then sell to locals..?
u scratch my back, and i scratch urs..? or u sell me urs, and i sell u mine.??
now, locals have little hopes in buying now, and to sell to anyone for profits in future
Ah Kong only want HDB upgraders to buy just one PC, keep their HDB for rental and stay in PC ... Ah Kong learn from China CCP and this is the only way to ensure huge victory in next election without cutting Minister's Pay
Ah Kong don't care about elites or Indon Chinese who own multiple Orchard properties anymore
Pinnacle@Duxton may not be able to sell first 1 million unit anymore because similar unit @ Icon is going to be 1 million only :banghead:
remember alots of forummers support PAPA in last polling with blah blah reason on property price up....and later again on the Dr, whose of the perceived reason that can contribute to help solve economy crisis as the most experienced candidate in another recent polling...so dont give up continue to support:o :o
phantom_opera
13-12-11, 09:30
In fact HDB resale price will also go down once KBW starts to flood the market with BTO for 2nd timers next year i.e. the resale market has no Singaporeans first timers, no second timers ... only SPRs
HDB 400psf, prime HDB & OCR 600psf, RCR 800psf, CCR 1000psf
buttercarp
13-12-11, 09:41
My neighbour is FT Indian who are now PR.
They are still renting the unit cos they said it was too expensive to buy.
Now with the CM, if prices dive, they may buy a unit rather than continue with the rental.
In fact HDB resale price will also go down once KBW starts to flood the market with BTO for 2nd timers next year i.e. the resale market has no Singaporeans first timers, no second timers ... only SPRs
HDB 400psf, prime HDB & OCR 600psf, RCR 800psf, CCR 1000psf
It's not true that the HDB resale mkt will only cater to PRs. How about citizen 1st-timers like me who are not eligible for BTOs and ECs? Resale will be an avenue.
There's also the younger generation who want to marry but dont want to wait 3 years for the BTO. They will buy resale. The resale mkt however, will be hit by KBW's new BTOs in 2 years time though, esp. if population stagnates at 5.2m. KBW's strategy is to let the resale mkt slide gradually through completion of BTOs, so that he will not bear the brunt of current HDB owners' ire.
My neighbour is FT Indian who are now PR.
They are still renting the unit cos they said it was too expensive to buy.
Now with the CM, if prices dive, they may buy a unit rather than continue with the rental.
will buy, if prices dive.
lately on the street talks, pple are waiting for 2012. for prices to dive down.
so if Mr A wanna buy a property now, Mr B will tell him to wait for 2012.
in 2012 drop by 10%, Mr C will tell him to wait for 20%.
if drop by 20%, Mr D will tell him to wait for 30%...
心理学
devilplate
13-12-11, 09:47
My neighbour is FT Indian who are now PR.
They are still renting the unit cos they said it was too expensive to buy.
Now with the CM, if prices dive, they may buy a unit rather than continue with the rental.
rental will crash after px crash
LOL
In fact HDB resale price will also go down once KBW starts to flood the market with BTO for 2nd timers next year i.e. the resale market has no Singaporeans first timers, no second timers ... only SPRs
HDB 400psf, prime HDB & OCR 600psf, RCR 800psf, CCR 1000psf
I'm of the view that HDB prices in prime districts will continue to climb gradually. Watch out for HDBs near Jurong East MRT and Tanjong Pagar/Tiong Bahru/ Queenstown MRT. The more the MRT network develops, the more valuable these HDBs in these areas will be. It is hard for KBW to create BTOs in these areas, as the land is designated for more GLS to generate revenue for the government.
devilplate
13-12-11, 09:50
hdb px may not crash so easily..at most correct abit nia.....
its condo tat will suffer big crash....zzzzzzzzzz
u see more foreigners will stop looking to buy liao.....they will go apply PR....once they got PR, they can actually look at resale HDB instead of condo
hdb px may not crash so easily..at most correct abit nia.....
its condo tat will suffer big crash....zzzzzzzzzz
u see more foreigners will stop looking to buy liao.....they will go apply PR....once they got PR, they can actually look at resale HDB instead of condo
yup. that wad the cbcp foreigner said on tv, ytd nite.
apply pr, may consider hdb. or then pc
rental will crash after px crash
LOL
rental crash.
hdb rental cash, lead to unable to cover condo mortgages.
then.. u know, i know, history cycles know
yup. that wad the cbcp foreigner said on tv, ytd nite.
apply pr, may consider hdb. or then pcSmart move by our govt... more FT applying for PRship in Singapore. Lol!
rental crash.
hdb rental cash, lead to unable to cover condo mortgages.
then.. u know, i know, history cycles know
Foreigners are slowly downgrading to HDBs. HDB rental in prime districts will not crash.
Ah Kong only want HDB upgraders to buy just one PC, keep their HDB for rental and stay in PC ... Ah Kong learn from China CCP and this is the only way to ensure huge victory in next election without cutting Minister's Pay
Ah Kong don't care about elites or Indon Chinese who own multiple Orchard properties anymore
Pinnacle@Duxton may not be able to sell first 1 million unit anymore because similar unit @ Icon is going to be 1 million only :banghead:Ah gong only care about whether there are sufficient foreign talents/workers around us to stay and work (not foreign investors who come, buy property and go). Check out our latest foreign worker...
After taking a detour to avoid a traffic jam, an SBS Transit (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=12thik2h8/EXP=1324954723/**http%3A//sg.search.yahoo.com/search%3Fp=SBS%2BTransit%26ei=UTF-8%26fr=moz35) bus driver lost his way, ending up taking more than 10 passengers on a more than two-hour journey.
Channel 8 news reporter Wu Liang Xiang happened to be on SBS bus service 52, which was headed toward Bishan from Jurong East interchange on Sunday.
While travelling along Bukit Timah road, its driver took a left turn off the road to avoid getting stuck in a congested section, but eventually lost his way, Wu reported in a video (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=11f8ibmpl/EXP=1324954723/**http%3A//youtu.be/Wh3yd1DqRk4) for the TV channel.
Passengers on board the bus at the time expressed their annoyance at the driver, telling Channel 8 that their time was being wasted.
The news bulletin also reported that a number of passengers on the bus offered to help provide directions to the driver, but were turned down because of a “need to follow the SBS control centre’s instructions”, leading some to lament that the driver and SBS Transit should be more flexible in situations like the one they were in.
“If our passengers are willing to help the driver, and most of us have already been stranded in the bus for about two hours, the control station should allow him to listen to our views,” said an English-speaking passenger in the video.
The report added that ComfortDelgro (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=12t6re405/EXP=1324954723/**http%3A//sg.search.yahoo.com/search%3Fp=ComfortDelgro%26ei=UTF-8%26fr=moz35), which owns SBS Transit, has issued an apology, and are currently investigating the incident. The transportation company, which also controls Singapore’s largest fleet of taxis (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=12seu7rop/EXP=1324954723/**http%3A//sg.news.yahoo.com/increase-in-flag-down-fares--comfortdelgro.html), has not yet responded to queries from Yahoo! Singapore.
phantom_opera
13-12-11, 10:13
HDB price not crash lah ... just dun expect anymore upside like 1 mio HDB
My neighbour is FT Indian who are now PR.
They are still renting the unit cos they said it was too expensive to buy.
Now with the CM, if prices dive, they may buy a unit rather than continue with the rental.
See, we're not that foreigner unfriendly after all!
:D
devilplate
13-12-11, 10:15
See, we're not that foreigner unfriendly after all!
:D
yeah
cm5 is to protect our beloved foreigners!!!
sad to hear more singkies entering the market even after cm5......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
yeah
cm5 is to protect our beloved foreigners!!!
sad to hear more singkies entering the market even after cm5......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Well, you know what bro equalizer says, Denial....:banghead:
Sinkies flushed with cash, dunno where to throw...
Well, you know what bro equalizer says, Denial....:banghead:
Sinkies flushed with cash, dunno where to throw...
seller still hold high high price if not rather hold that is the common answer now...:p
HDB price not crash lah ... just dun expect anymore upside like 1 mio HDB
>$1 million HDB http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/singapore-property-listing/property-for-sale/2?property_type=H&minprice=1000000&distance=1.0&submit=Search&items_per_page=30
Just wait for those at Tanjong Pagar and Queenstown to meet 5 years MOP...
why do locals buy..?
- capital gain,
- hot monies,
- to sell to foreigners..
so if there's no-foreigners to sell to, then sell to locals..?
u scratch my back, and i scratch urs..? or u sell me urs, and i sell u mine.??
now, locals have little hopes in buying now, and to sell to anyone for profits in future
The thinking is that hot money does not confine to just foreigners. Many cash rich locals also do not know where to part their excess cash. They will continue to buy properties for investment. A friend of mine who is cash rich went ahead to buy just before the CM knowing that prices are likely to fall even without the CM. His thinking was that it is better to get rental income than bank interest. He prefers to get $3000 rental than $1000 bank interest for the $1m property he invested. There are many cash rich people who think this way. There are also locals who buy for own stay and will buy as long as the price fits their budget. They care not about capital gain.
If developers continue to hold on to prices, these group of locals can still create some demand with the usual marketing tactics by less than professional developers. The market can be rather distorted in this case.
The thinking is that hot money does not confine to just foreigners. Many cash rich locals also do not know where to part their excess cash. They will continue to buy properties for investment. A friend of mine who is cash rich went ahead to buy just before the CM knowing that prices are likely to fall even without the CM. His thinking was that it is better to get rental income than bank interest. He prefers to get $3000 rental than $1000 bank interest for the $1m property he invested. There are many cash rich people who think this way. There are also locals who buy for own stay and will buy as long as the price fits their budget. They care not about capital gain.
If developers continue to hold on to prices, these group of locals can still create some demand with the usual marketing tactics by less than professional developers. The market can be rather distorted in this case.
1 million property rental 3k..
once drop to 800k value, rental..?? 3k..?? or 2.5k..??
so ur frd doesnt mind lose on 200k, if he see rental..??
why not ask ur frd pass me 1 million, i can give him 3k for next 12months.
then his principal amount i returned 800k.:D
mine is the best, cos the 3k is net net.
do not have to minus off mortgages, maintaince fee, and property taxes. which eventually he get per month basis 1-1.5k from props
The thinking is that hot money does not confine to just foreigners. Many cash rich locals also do not know where to part their excess cash. They will continue to buy properties for investment. A friend of mine who is cash rich went ahead to buy just before the CM knowing that prices are likely to fall even without the CM. His thinking was that it is better to get rental income than bank interest. He prefers to get $3000 rental than $1000 bank interest for the $1m property he invested. There are many cash rich people who think this way. There are also locals who buy for own stay and will buy as long as the price fits their budget. They care not about capital gain.
If developers continue to hold on to prices, these group of locals can still create some demand with the usual marketing tactics by less than professional developers. The market can be rather distorted in this case.
in short, the rich do not mind to lose a 100-300k. as long got rental..?
indeed very smart rich one, then i wonder hw they acculmate their wealth through such smartness
buttercarp
13-12-11, 12:04
Well, you know what bro equalizer says, Denial....:banghead:
Sinkies flushed with cash, dunno where to throw...
Better buy property than leave it in bank.
Property especially residential, can keep for future generation.
in short, the rich do not mind to lose a 100-300k. as long got rental..?
indeed very smart rich one, then i wonder hw they acculmate their wealth through such smartness
People are not born equal. Some are smart, some are smarter. Some are rich, some are even richer. If all smart and/or rich people think alike, then there is no one smarter or richer.
On a more serious note, some rich people (not all) do not need to time their purchase. They buy according to their needs. They do not quite bother about price coming down 20% because they are not going to sell anyway. They will hold and collect rental and in the longer term, they still gain.
On the contrary, many not so rich people will want to time the market because they could not afford to hold when price falls drastically. These are the people likely to miss the boat because they try too hard to time the market. No offend to many such people and probably I am one of them.
People are not born equal. Some are smart, some are smarter. Some are rich, some are even richer. If all smart and/or rich people think alike, then there is no one smarter or richer.
On a more serious note, some rich people (not all) do not need to time their purchase. They buy according to their needs. They do not quite bother about price coming down 20% because they are not going to sell anyway. They will hold and collect rental and in the longer term, they still gain.
On the contrary, many not so rich people will want to time the market because they could not afford to hold when price falls drastically. These are the people likely to miss the boat because they try too hard to time the market. No offend to many such people and probably I am one of them.
rich do not time their purchase,
but this time is different,
when HEADLINES is that big!! All will time their purchase
message from the govt is so loud and clear..
why need to time the market, coz this time round is known as wait for the market..
when there's no big news, they wait = time(pure guessing) the market,
when there's big news, they wait = wait for the market. (to max out the profits)
ok:D
when there's no big news, they wait = time(pure guessing) the market,
when there's big news, they wait = wait for the market. (to max out the profits)
ok:DArmy lingo... rush to wait, wait to rush... :D
:rolleyes:
will buy, if prices dive.
lately on the street talks, pple are waiting for 2012. for prices to dive down.
so if Mr A wanna buy a property now, Mr B will tell him to wait for 2012.
in 2012 drop by 10%, Mr C will tell him to wait for 20%.
if drop by 20%, Mr D will tell him to wait for 30%...
心理学
thats what happened in early 2009...:rolleyes:
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 18:50
yeah
cm5 is to protect our beloved foreigners!!!
sad to hear more singkies entering the market even after cm5......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
come on la, brother devilplate. You really meant to say protect Singaporean. Write too fast.
:rolleyes:
thats what happened in early 2009...:rolleyes:
to be exact, from 2008.. last til 2009 march.
until alexis and few condos launched in feb onwards, wf good sales
restored market confidence.. leading the rebounce
to be exact, from 2008.. last til 2009 march.
until alexis and few condos launched in feb onwards, wf good sales
restored market confidence.. leading the rebounce
this time with double dip possibilities, eu breakdown, hk/china property prices drop
more CMs on the cards, to address to GE issues, need to makeup and gain back votes etc..
totally killed off confidence
Killing off confidence... that's what some people are working overtime on lately. :)
this time with double dip possibilities, eu breakdown, hk/china property prices drop
more CMs on the cards, to address to GE issues, need to makeup and gain back votes etc..
totally killed off confidence
Killing off confidence... that's what some people are working overtime on lately. :)
siao onz, to safeguard their job..??
Allthepies
13-12-11, 21:25
After pondering hard for several days and nights, I finally see the light of the latest CM!
our government indeed has excellent foresight/friend. the CM is like what our brother blackjack has said, it is meant to protect ALL Singaporeans from the damage that is to come 2013. well done!!! :cheers1:
After pondering hard for several days and nights, I finally see the light of the latest CM!
our government indeed has excellent foresight/friend. the CM is like what our brother blackjack has said, it is meant to protect ALL Singaporeans from the damage that is to come 2013. well done!!! :cheers1:
after pondering few days.. any classic story too..??:D
i wanna hear story le.
protect sgporeans to speculate..? or prevent crisis hit hard..?
Allthepies
13-12-11, 21:31
after pondering few days.. any classic story too..??:D
i wanna hear story le.
protect sgporeans to speculate..? or prevent crisis hit hard..?
the target is not Singapore, but collateral damage will be great.. so CM to hopefully reduce the collateral damage :D
it's the fight between the 2 titans....
just negotiated for 20% increase of rental:cheers5:
Congrats. Seal the deal by signing the agreement and e-stamping it quickly. Just done mine this morning w/o agent.
just negotiated for 20% increase of rental:cheers5:
Congrats. Seal the deal by signing the agreement and e-stamping it quickly. Just done mine this morning w/o agent.
What if the tenant wants to terminate the lease early? Just have to give a few months notice right?
hdb px may not crash so easily..at most correct abit nia.....
its condo tat will suffer big crash....zzzzzzzzzz
u see more foreigners will stop looking to buy liao.....they will go apply PR....once they got PR, they can actually look at resale HDB instead of condo
Buy HDB from Singaporean then Singaporean go upgrade buy condo!.. So its ok!
blackjack21trader
14-12-11, 15:32
After pondering hard for several days and nights, I finally see the light of the latest CM!
our government indeed has excellent foresight/friend. the CM is like what our brother blackjack has said, it is meant to protect ALL Singaporeans from the damage that is to come 2013. well done!!! :cheers1:
so did you also meet the same morning bird which told me this ? Woahahahaha
But seriously, because of the lower interest rates, foreigners who come here to work wants to buy instead of rent before CM5. They may not be here for long term, more like medium terms ones also want a piece of our property pie. Then who wants to rent in our rental markets? somemore they will definately sell once their employment contracts expire.
Our government is quick to see this.Which government in the World is so worldclass?
And indeed CM5 is a really good move to protect not only Singaporean home buyers but landlords also.
blackjack21trader
14-12-11, 15:48
so did you also meet the same morning bird which told me this ? Woahahahaha
But seriously, because of the lower interest rates, foreigners who come here to work wants to buy instead of rent before CM5. They may not be here for long term, more like medium terms ones also want a piece of our property pie. Then who wants to rent in our rental markets? somemore they will definately sell once their employment contracts expire.
Our government is quick to see this.Which government in the World is so worldclass?
And indeed CM5 is a really good move to protect not only Singaporean home buyers but landlords also.
The danger sign will emerge once those seemingly uninterested in our property market foreigners also start to take up a loan to buy our property; without any intention of becoming PR or Singaporean. once they leave their job and start to unwind their loans, even our banks will suffer. this category is the borderline ones, with monthly income of maybe S$7,000.
devilplate
14-12-11, 15:51
The danger sign will emerge once those seemingly uninterested in our property market foreigners also start to take up a loan to buy our property; without any intention of becoming PR or Singaporean.
Dun nid to dream foreigner will invest liao la
Only 2 scenario they will buy.....px drop more den let say 20% and or cm5 removed....
Px crash.....cm5 lifted....foreigners buy again......who lose? Snkies lor....give up their ppty at a loss to foreigners.....
so did you also meet the same morning bird which told me this ? Woahahahaha
But seriously, because of the lower interest rates, foreigners who come here to work wants to buy instead of rent before CM5. They may not be here for long term, more like medium terms ones also want a piece of our property pie. Then who wants to rent in our rental markets? somemore they will definately sell once their employment contracts expire.
Our government is quick to see this.Which government in the World is so worldclass?
And indeed CM5 is a really good move to protect not only Singaporean home buyers but landlords also.
Yes more CMs to protect us plsssss:D
Dubai is different from Singapore?
gahmen CM5 prevent this?
Stricken Dubai prices 'to crash 30 per cent'
By MAIL ON SUNDAY REPORTER
Last updated at 4:10 PM on 30th November 2009
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Dubai's property market could plummet by up to 30 per cent from current levels - already down 50 per cent from peak - and may take more than a decade to recover, a senior real estate analyst warned this weekend, writes Abul Tahir.
His warning came as it was revealed that Dubai is in danger of defaulting on its debt of more than £48billion.
The main cause of the debt is Dubai World, the stateowned port operator and real estate holding company, believed to have liabilities exceeding £36billion.
Oversupply: Dubai is experiencing an exodus of foreigners
Saud Masud, a real estate analyst for UBS based in Dubai, predicts property prices will fall by up to 30 per cent in the next few months.
He forecast..........
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-1232142/Stricken-Dubai-prices-crash-30-cent.html#ixzz1gVM4M8d1
Dubai is different from Singapore?
gahmen CM5 prevent this?
Dubai has more similarities to Iskandar IMHO. They share the same philosophy of "Build it and they will come":)
not so much on characteristics of projects
am talking about will Singapore be like dubai if foreigners run when market
tanks
CAN the Analyst be TRUSTED?
resale mARKET IS expected to be dead meat ...:o
Analysts expect property prices to soften in 2012
The Singapore private residential property market was hit with two rounds of cooling measures in 2011 – moves widely described by analysts as harsh.
Coupled with an expected slowdown in the global economy, home-buying decisions may stall in 2012.
And developers may also roll out more incentives to prop up sales.
Despite the uncertain economic outlook in 2011, home-buying interest remained healthy judging by the long queues at recent property launches.
Analysts expect new private homes sales to hit a total of 15,000 to 16,000 units this year, compared to nearly 16,300 units sold in 2010.
Next year, crowds at property launches could get thinner as weak economic sentiment undermines the confidence people have in keeping their jobs.
Sales volume for 2012 is likely to dip further to under 14,000 units for the whole year.
Dr Chua Yang Liang, Research Head, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “If the transaction volumes were to declined and sustained into 2012, then prices are expected to be affected. From our forecast we think possibly between 10 to 15 percent on the downside.”
Analysts say there is no chance of recovery for high-end property next year, with prices likely to slide 20 per cent.
The sale of high-end units was already lacklustre before the government imposed an Additional Buyers’ Stamp duty in December, which will further dampen demand from foreigners.
Market watchers expect some diversion of investor interest from residential, to other real estate including office and strata industrial properties.
Meanwhile, the cheaper home loans and genuine latent occupier demand are expected to continue to drive the mass market home segment.
However, prices for such homes could see a downward correction of about 10 per cent next year
To mitigate the impact of the cooling measures, experts say developers are likely to dangle a carrot in front of home buyers.
Chia Siew Chuin, Director, Research & Advisory, Colliers International, said: “They may have to even align their prices to move the sales or even look at incentives, soft sale kind of measures, probably extending rebates in the sense of discounts or even absorbing stamp duty on behalf of buyers or extending other kinds of incentives not only to buyers but also to agents to help them move sales.”
Developers will also continue to launch new projects, especially those in the suburban areas.
Donald Han, Vice Chairman, Cushman & Wakefied, said: “We will continue to see more launches coming up for mass market, mainly because the government sales of sites that have been launched in the last 24 months…a record number of over 20 sites will have to come into the market. They (the developers) have to do it now as these are on 99-year leases, unlike the high-end or mid-end projects which are traditionally freehold projects having a longer tenure life.”
Analysts say developers will also be more measured in their land bids next year, and prices for sites that are less attractive could dip by some 10 to 12 per cent.
will Singapore be like dubai if foreigners run when market
tanks
I don't think so. If you look at the private pty mkt alone, Singapore's ratio of foreign vs local holdings is like 3:7 but Dubai's is something like 8:2. So when foreign investor flee Singapore, the impact will be smaller than Dubai's.
Wild Falcon
15-12-11, 10:09
That is why the ABSD is targeted at the foreigners speculating in our property market. Because no matter what, the Singaporeans and PRs will call Singapore home and even in a crisis, we are unlikely to sell everything and disappear. But these foreigners (non PR) don't even stay here. They merely speculate in property and will be the first to run away at the first sign of trouble. It is already worrisome that these foreigners (mainly PRCs) are already buying up >40% of our luxury property which means it's already a big bubble, despite the lacklustre performance.
not so much on characteristics of projects
am talking about will Singapore be like dubai if foreigners run when market
tanks
I don't think so. If you look at the private pty mkt alone, Singapore's ratio of foreign vs local holdings is like 3:7 but Dubai's is something like 8:2. So when foreign investor flee Singapore, the impact will be smaller than Dubai's.
Prices up due to demand from who? locals /foreigners for own stay or rent out
if locals are not borrowing - not alarming.
Are locals borrowing because of low interest rates? LTV 60% - doesn't matter. if interest rates double, what would be the impact
unemployment is another driver as some quoted.... does local holdings help in a speculative market? Are we in a speculative market?
with the ABSD....would this start to filter the investors local and foreign.
HK investors have started deleveraging.
My neighbour is FT Indian who are now PR.
They are still renting the unit cos they said it was too expensive to buy.
Now with the CM, if prices dive, they may buy a unit rather than continue with the rental.
second to that...alot of FTs my colleagues share the same thoughts
prices are too high they claimed...
secondly they want to make $$ here and go back home to retire
even my senior mgmt FT they have plenty of investment properties back home. they either rent/buy 1 only. rest of their salary repatriated back to homeland. Now with rupees weakened so much...they are sending $$$ home.
some forumers are retirees or housewives who are disconnected from real world
thought that they can now speculate and rent when complete ..what if there's no demand esp. with the unemployment rate/layoffs increasing
anyway demand will come back but during the slowdown...cashflow sustainability
buying is not a problem...downpayment...the part that kills is the cashflow.
Dubai has more similarities to Iskandar IMHO. They share the same philosophy of "Build it and they will come":)
same kinda people..:cool:
they may be correct....developers would not sit back and await death.
dangle carrot to cover ABSD.
But the buyers/foreigners are cautious esp. when they are in international scene....HK is sliding, CN is softening.
market will slow indefinitely but impact and for how long?
CAN the Analyst be TRUSTED?
resale mARKET IS expected to be dead meat ...:o
Analysts expect property prices to soften in 2012
The Singapore private residential property market was hit with two rounds of cooling measures in 2011 – moves widely described by analysts as harsh.
Coupled with an expected slowdown in the global economy, home-buying decisions may stall in 2012.
And developers may also roll out more incentives to prop up sales.
Despite the uncertain economic outlook in 2011, home-buying interest remained healthy judging by the long queues at recent property launches.
Analysts expect new private homes sales to hit a total of 15,000 to 16,000 units this year, compared to nearly 16,300 units sold in 2010.
Next year, crowds at property launches could get thinner as weak economic sentiment undermines the confidence people have in keeping their jobs.
Sales volume for 2012 is likely to dip further to under 14,000 units for the whole year.
Dr Chua Yang Liang, Research Head, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “If the transaction volumes were to declined and sustained into 2012, then prices are expected to be affected. From our forecast we think possibly between 10 to 15 percent on the downside.”
Analysts say there is no chance of recovery for high-end property next year, with prices likely to slide 20 per cent.
The sale of high-end units was already lacklustre before the government imposed an Additional Buyers’ Stamp duty in December, which will further dampen demand from foreigners.
Market watchers expect some diversion of investor interest from residential, to other real estate including office and strata industrial properties.
Meanwhile, the cheaper home loans and genuine latent occupier demand are expected to continue to drive the mass market home segment.
However, prices for such homes could see a downward correction of about 10 per cent next year
To mitigate the impact of the cooling measures, experts say developers are likely to dangle a carrot in front of home buyers.
Chia Siew Chuin, Director, Research & Advisory, Colliers International, said: “They may have to even align their prices to move the sales or even look at incentives, soft sale kind of measures, probably extending rebates in the sense of discounts or even absorbing stamp duty on behalf of buyers or extending other kinds of incentives not only to buyers but also to agents to help them move sales.”
Developers will also continue to launch new projects, especially those in the suburban areas.
Donald Han, Vice Chairman, Cushman & Wakefied, said: “We will continue to see more launches coming up for mass market, mainly because the government sales of sites that have been launched in the last 24 months…a record number of over 20 sites will have to come into the market. They (the developers) have to do it now as these are on 99-year leases, unlike the high-end or mid-end projects which are traditionally freehold projects having a longer tenure life.”
Analysts say developers will also be more measured in their land bids next year, and prices for sites that are less attractive could dip by some 10 to 12 per cent.
they may be correct....developers would not sit back and await death.
dangle carrot to cover ABSD.
But the buyers/foreigners are cautious esp. when they are in international scene....HK is sliding, CN is softening.
market will slow indefinitely but impact and for how long?
the last straw that wil trigger an immediate PRICE reduction will be the interest RATE that will counteract the low holding cost...this will be the mother of all CM (although it might not be man made)...:o
the last straw that wil trigger an immediate PRICE reduction will be the interest RATE that will counteract the low holding cost...this will be the mother of all CM (although it might not be man made)...:oAbsolutely... But this CM will not come anytime soon, or will it?
phantom_opera
15-12-11, 11:41
All things moves up/down, prolonged period of low SIBOR will be followed by prolonged period of high SIBOR, beware
http://www.salary.sg/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/historical-sibor2.png
Today's Biz Times - SOR and SIBOR up....but not so much as to threaten.
US vows to keep rates low till 2013.
But liquidity might be affected with the Eurozone issues.
Banks may insure themselves via higher margins.
So some good and no-so good news...either way the lows of SOR/SIBOR was seen 3 months ago...
But this CM will not come anytime soon, or will it?
But this CM will not come anytime soon, or will it?
Hard to say when it will strike.. but of course hopefully it will never come too soon.. :o if not those highly leverage will dump definitely as this is a strike /stab to the heart....:o
devilplate
15-12-11, 11:54
faster crash deeper better
faster crash deeper better
CM5 effectiveness has yet to be seen till a few months down the road as now most ellers have this thought "why sell low? can hold if not rent " :o so one way "your faster crash deeper better" will realise is interest rate up and coupled with the current CMs...all hell breaks loose.
Absolutely... But this CM will not come anytime soon, or will it?
I don't think SOR or SIBOR will jump drastically. But somebody should keep an eye out on the bank's spread when risk premium gets higher. If the bank's internal memo is indicating a impending pty correction, we can expect LTV to drop and spread to widen.......
Prices up due to demand from who?
Bedok 1350psf buyers and Sengkang 1100psf buyers are predominantly local.
Landed prices are totally driven up by locals.
Dun kid yourself: the purpose of this CM has more political agenda than economical. PAP has listened. Pty investment, whether for rent or for capital appreciation, is a sin. The gov wants to stop all the complaints that "housing prices are out of reach for ordinary singaporeans". And by the way, nice to have headline news for "slapping foreigners" too. Best way to win over voters.
so did you also meet the same morning bird which told me this ? Woahahahaha
But seriously, because of the lower interest rates, foreigners who come here to work wants to buy instead of rent before CM5. They may not be here for long term, more like medium terms ones also want a piece of our property pie. Then who wants to rent in our rental markets? somemore they will definately sell once their employment contracts expire.
Our government is quick to see this.Which government in the World is so worldclass?
And indeed CM5 is a really good move to protect not only Singaporean home buyers but landlords also.
Foreigners are not necessary working here. They are just merely investor nia.
Bedok 1350psf buyers and Sengkang 1100psf buyers are predominantly local.
Landed prices are totally driven up by locals.
Dun kid yourself: the purpose of this CM has more political agenda than economical. PAP has listened. Pty investment, whether for rent or for capital appreciation, is a sin. The gov wants to stop all the complaints that "housing prices are out of reach for ordinary singaporeans". And by the way, nice to have headline news for "slapping foreigners" too. Best way to win over voters.
out of city condo exceeding million all this are the deeds of local....:o and all the CM have failed, will CM5 has any effect down the road a few months later next year? Interest rate is the mother of all CMs...seems is the only way which cannot and must not happen...people will die...:o
Always the same story ...market go up, Govt give warnings and then start CMs but market don't bother. More and more CMs and then the external factors will cause the market to crash just when the last CM is the harshest...happened last in 1997.
out of city condo exceeding million all this are the deeds of local....:o and all the CM have failed, will CM5 has any effect down the road a few months later next year? Interest rate is the mother of all CMs...seems is the only way which cannot and must not happen...people will die...:o
Bedok 1350psf buyers and Sengkang 1100psf buyers are predominantly local.
Landed prices are totally driven up by locals.
Dun kid yourself: the purpose of this CM has more political agenda than economical. PAP has listened. Pty investment, whether for rent or for capital appreciation, is a sin. The gov wants to stop all the complaints that "housing prices are out of reach for ordinary singaporeans". And by the way, nice to have headline news for "slapping foreigners" too. Best way to win over voters.
bedok and sengkang - agree demand pushed by singaporeans but majority for own stay/rent? I know a few of buyers thinking to rent. majority?
landed is separate animal unless you are talking about sentosa
anyway, cant stop all complaints as the singaporeans who have multiple properties will still curse. capital appreciation is not a sin..buy and sell with profits. GLS? but appropriate pricing and gradual climb instead of steep climb
if I have few private condos I will now curse and swear as last mths market quiet on resale condos now it is even worst
So u agree foreigners are not the reason of pty prices. For locals, gov of course cannot tell if locals are buying for investment or stay. The preemptive move is to make it clear: buy for investment is not welcome, and hope by removing another segment of demand, the price has no way to go but down. Judging by the response in Internet and press, clearly it has won many votes. Ppl are saying their dreams are alive again. Whether or not it really brings down the prices does not matter. Recession is coming, price can only go down regardless.
Ppl with pte pties as investment asset now will of course complain. However since 70% of the households are in HDB, the majority, including those (sorry) who cannot make it in the first place, are now happier, because "justice is now perceived to be done"
So u agree foreigners are not the reason of pty prices. For locals, gov of course cannot tell if locals are buying for investment or stay. The preemptive move is to make it clear: buy for investment is not welcome, and hope by removing another segment of demand, the price has no way to go but down. Judging by the response in Internet and press, clearly it has won many votes. Ppl are saying their dreams are alive again. Whether or not it really brings down the prices does not matter. Recession is coming, price can only go down regardless.
Ppl with pte pties as investment asset now will of course complain. However since 70% of the households are in HDB, the majority, including those (sorry) who cannot make it in the first place, are now happier, because "justice is now perceived to be done"All else being equal, the recent CM might have quieten the investors but inevitably unleashed the influence of the hdb upgraders and the many who are waiting painfully by the side to tilt the balance again. In the end, prices might still hold because of this phenomenon... Hmmm... curbing the 30% of investors, foreign or local, but releasing the untapped potential of the remaining 70% is :scared-1:.
let's check the ground and post here.....
conversation with my FT buddies for sure they are not buying but will rent.
and they are scouting for cheaper rent. they also read that market is soft on demand and negotiating for cheap rent.
asked Singaporean buddies who are buying to invest....their responses wait la till next year. more choices and cheaper fire sale. no urgency.
buddies owners who hold few properties - looking to sell at high psf. pasar malam approach..quote high but willing to negotiate. deleveraging as worried about next year outlook. they did mention that agents trying to wise them on realizable psf. they still have profits but agents highlighted to them that profits may disappear due to uncertainties.
ground report......
Sorry maybe my England not good enough... Exactly what's ur point ? Pty sentiment is very low that's obvious, what else can it be ?
The other thread phantom mentioned his take on the market. I personally shared the same view. What's your take ?
let's check the ground and post here.....
conversation with my FT buddies for sure they are not buying but will rent.
and they are scouting for cheaper rent. they also read that market is soft on demand and negotiating for cheap rent.
asked Singaporean buddies who are buying to invest....their responses wait la till next year. more choices and cheaper fire sale. no urgency.
buddies owners who hold few properties - looking to sell at high psf. pasar malam approach..quote high but willing to negotiate. deleveraging as worried about next year outlook. they did mention that agents trying to wise them on realizable psf. they still have profits but agents highlighted to them that profits may disappear due to uncertainties.
ground report......
what are your buddies rental budget?
Much ado about nothing
by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Dec 16, 2011
The dive in property stock prices following the Dec 7 announcement of
additional cooling measures is an admission by the market that it believes
that the bulk of home buying in recent quarters - if not years - were
investment purchases and not driven by owner-occupiers or upgraders as many
had claimed for so long.
How else can we interpret the strong reaction and thinly-disguised anger and
bitterness in some of the comments in news reports over the recent days? I
was actually more taken aback by these comments than the actual measures
themselves. However, the party which should be the most aggrieved - the
developers - appears to have taken the latest measures far better than
others.
The day after the announcement of the additional buyers' stamp duties of
between 3 and 10 per cent on certain transactions, the developers came out
in droves - 22 in all - to bid for a landed housing site in Chestnut Ave in
Upper Bukit Timah. There is no doubt that the buyers of landed homes are
less affected by the cooling measures, but the number of bids and the prices
were above expectations. Only one developer was successful, which means 21
others had spare cash to spend. Is this a sign of vulnerability?
If indeed the majority of home purchases this year had been underpinned by
strong demand fundamentals - shrinking household sizes and rapid population
growth that had resulted in severe undersupply as suggested by some analysts
four to five months ago - why is there a panic reaction now?
We have been overwhelmed by numerous negative comments, with almost all
analysts predicting at least a 10-per-cent drop in home prices in the next
year, with some forecasting a plunge as much as 30 per cent. This translates
to an average loss of 2.5 per cent per month or 7.5 per cent per quarter.
Such a steep drop in such a short period - if it occurs - indicates a severe
loss of market confidence. Maybe we are thinking about the last decline
during the global credit crisis that followed the collapse of Lehman
Brothers. However, we should not forget that Singapore experienced its
deepest post-independence recession then. Are we expecting a recession of
the same magnitude next year? The latest economists' forecast is that the
Singapore economy will grow 3 per cent next year.
If you had read the report in question, the 30-per-cent drop was predicated
on slower population growth and unprecedented home supply, not on slower
economic growth or a recession. Some analysts have also drawn comparisons to
the 1996 price decline which was precipitated by the introduction of
anti-speculation measures in May that year. It is not a fair comparison as
the problem then was rampant speculation and it was nipped in the bud. There
was no low-interest rate environment.
From the statements accompanying the announcement of the latest measures, it
is clear that the authorities see potential destabilising investment flows
as the problem. Clearly, they are saying that it is a money issue first
before it is a real estate problem. However, most of our market analyses
thus far have largely ignored this aspect or dwelt on it only in passing.
Many continue to treat it as a real estate problem, ignore the economic
aspect of it and then still expect buyers to be rational in their buying. It
will be by pure chance if their calls turn out to be right. I am not saying
these analysts are wrong but if you truly understand the complexity of the
real problem, it is premature to call a drop in prices at this point in
time.
I would also not be unduly worried by some analysts' comments that the
heavier stamp duties are making a dent in Singapore's standing as a major
property investment destination while giving rivals such as Hong Kong a
boost. These comments do not give due recognition to what many respected
economists are warning about - the destabilising investment flows into our
part of the world.
To continue with a non-interventionist approach in the face of such hot
money would be foolhardy - it would be courting disaster. In fact, I would
say the current measures have enhanced Singapore's standing as a safe haven
and an extremely attractive property investment destination.
Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec
International.
question: anyone asked what if there's no ABSD to be paid by Buyer A singaporean, will he get same ABSD in form of cash/furniture vouchers?
if not, it is not equitable since developer only compensate those who have to pay ABSD?
if developers are prepared a sum to pay for ABSD shouldn't it be across the board?
anyone can contribute...anyway, if have time...will pop by showroom FEO
was just reading colin's article 2 years ago - LH vs FH
he supported LH based on yield return...I am not a fan of LH
but anyone had experiences of steeper price drop for LH when there's a downturn?
if EU banks are stronger/sustainable in operations for next2-3 years and now not pulling funds away from Asia...his article holds
when the shit hits the fence everyone will take cover for themselves.
other analysts who forecast a drop in prices, link to much lower economic activities globally?
question: anyone asked what if there's no ABSD to be paid by Buyer A singaporean, will he get same ABSD in form of cash/furniture vouchers?
if not, it is not equitable since developer only compensate those who have to pay ABSD?
if developers are prepared a sum to pay for ABSD shouldn't it be across the board?
anyone can contribute...anyway, if have time...will pop by showroom FEOThe statement reads stamp duty reimbursement for those affected... if you are not affected, then no further reimbursement lor... why must it be across the board. All still pay the same amount for purchase of the unit. Govt collect more money at the expense of developer lor...
was just reading colin's article 2 years ago - LH vs FH
he supported LH based on yield return...I am not a fan of LH
but anyone had experiences of steeper price drop for LH when there's a downturn?
if EU banks are stronger/sustainable in operations for next2-3 years and now not pulling funds away from Asia...his article holds
when the shit hits the fence everyone will take cover for themselves.
other analysts who forecast a drop in prices, link to much lower economic activities globally?To me, LH beside MRT is better than FH near or away from MRT based on rental yield returns... just my observation.
LOL....still see it as not being fair.
o i c didnt realize that CT runs a real estate sales training school.
I now understand why the article is written.
To me, LH beside MRT is better than FH near or away from MRT based on rental yield returns... just my observation.
one is a want the other is a need.
one is a want the other is a need.Just remember for rental, tenants do not care if its FH or LH. It is only buyers who are concerned about such stuff... :cheers6:
Just remember for rental, tenants do not care if its FH or LH. It is only buyers who are concerned about such stuff... :cheers6:
I always look from a buyer's perspective.
Which price drop is steeper during downturn? Buyers have more FH options?
I always look from a buyer's perspective.
Which price drop is steeper during downturn? Buyers have more FH options?Actually you are quite right to look from buyer's perspective when it comes to investment properties coz you'll always look to sell it to the next buyer when the opportunity strikes. As such, assessing through the buyer's perspective is reasonable... :cheers5:
Think i agree with the earlier assessment that LH price drop is steeper during downturn but its price appreciation is probably also steeper during upturn. But again I'm only commenting based on what I've observed and particularly referring to LH near MRT. :D
Price drop faster in poorer locations regardless of FH or LH.
Actually you are quite right to look from buyer's perspective when it comes to investment properties coz you'll always look to sell it to the next buyer when the opportunity strikes. As such, assessing through the buyer's perspective is reasonable... :cheers5:
Think i agree with the earlier assessment that LH price drop is steeper during downturn but its price appreciation is probably also steeper during upturn. But again I'm only commenting based on what I've observed and particularly referring to LH near MRT. :D
Apology for diverting.
I still find the compensation unfair as developers have set aside their funds and should give to all. Imagine if the whole project is being bought by foreigners
I always prefer completed projects for cash-flow reason
Now I would not even take a look at new projects
Should one day consider to be developer
At launch psf determined by demand forces. HK did away this year
More upside for developers as set baseline psf, anything above it is extra bonus
Risk flows to buyers.
Apology for diverting.
I still find the compensation unfair as developers have set aside their funds and should give to all. Imagine if the whole project is being bought by foreigners
I always prefer completed projects for cash-flow reason
Now I would not even take a look at new projects
Should one day consider to be developer
At launch psf determined by demand forces. HK did away this year
More upside for developers as set baseline psf, anything above it is extra bonus
Risk flows to buyers.
nothing wrong with whole project bought by foreigners right? isn't that the hallmark of an open economy that welcomes foreigners? i thought some people were earlier accusing the govt as having turned socialist due to cm5. :)
Apology for diverting.
I still find the compensation unfair as developers have set aside their funds and should give to all. Imagine if the whole project is being bought by foreigners
I always prefer completed projects for cash-flow reason
Now I would not even take a look at new projects
Should one day consider to be developer
At launch psf determined by demand forces. HK did away this year
More upside for developers as set baseline psf, anything above it is extra bonus
Risk flows to buyers.So does it mean that you'd prefer no compensation to be given by developers at all in order to ensure fairness? :cheers1:
it's either left or right. no subsidy or all gets subsidy.
some may be disagree with my 2 extremes decision..
August - no no no i'm not driving at foreigners buying into one project. I'm looking from developer's angle that what if all buyers are foreigners..conservatively they then need to set aside ABSD for all units. Now because some buyers are singaporeans/PRs...their cashout on subsidy is much lower.
why not developer do positive marketing and give out subsidy to singaporeans/PR as well, i.e. to all buyers..
foreigner- ABSD subsidy
singaporeans - subsidy in the form of cash/furniture vouchers...or throw in A class ID
just need one developer to set this standard...and all units 100% sold out
anyway....just in time with completion of DTL
my take - everywhere on Singapore island is connected..with new lines.
so not much advantage even if near MRT.
advantage if nearer to CBD..working place.
anyway....just in time with completion of DTL
my take - everywhere on Singapore island is connected..with new lines.
so not much advantage even if near MRT.
advantage if nearer to CBD..working place.
referring to hillier
another interesting article
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=490313&type=Business
if i m a chinese in china...with the discounts 15-20% for luxury properties in china offered by developer vs absd in singapore..where would i place my money?
just a thought...need to touch base with some buddies in china
everywhere ppl is the same...when go good deal...you jump and wait and see.
am surprised to see how fast the chinese developers react and willing to go with reality..do we see commonality in Singapore developers now?
another interesting article
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=490313&type=Business
if i m a chinese in china...with the discounts 15-20% for luxury properties in china offered by developer vs absd in singapore..where would i place my money?
just a thought...need to touch base with some buddies in chinaThe biggest determining factor is the risk tagged to the two economies... :rolleyes:
Looking at some forumers who strongly viewed that china chinese will be the be buying into Singapore property market
Setting aside the china and singapore economic outlook (china is growing at GDP rate very much higher than us) the discounts make it more basis for china Chinese to reinvest into their market. Like stock buying accumulate when prices drop LOL.
Question is if china is down will singapore or other economies remain flat or be also down. Lets see.
Who strongly view china Chinese will be buying into SG pties after ABSD ?
Before CM5, china Chinese were buying into prime. It's a fact.
After CM5, no foreigner, including china Chinese, will be buying into anything.
VTO at some areas....even that no one dare to offer now...buyers are sitting on the fence observing...see who blinks first...:o
Regulators
18-12-11, 15:09
I am still thinking whether it is worth swallowing the 3% absd for the next purchase. There is no serious drop in prices so far, I think only a few developers absorbing absd, but they would have upped the px by 20% first
do you have to pay ABSB and be worst off compared to your neighbor?
dleedon - neighbor bought early june before ABSD...no 3%
now i am buying my 3rd property....need to pay 3% ABSD
same f'loor same unit size opposite each other
who has the advantage when selling?
rattydrama
18-12-11, 15:34
do you have to pay ABSB and be worst off compared to your neighbor?
dleedon - neighbor bought early june before ABSD...no 3%
now i am buying my 3rd property....need to pay 3% ABSD
same f'loor same unit size opposite each other
who has the advantage when selling?
wat about project like hillier, all buyers have to pay ABSB will they sell well with a reduced pricing?
rattydrama
18-12-11, 15:36
Who strongly view china Chinese will be buying into SG pties after ABSD ?
Before CM5, china Chinese were buying into prime. It's a fact.
After CM5, no foreigner, including china Chinese, will be buying into anything.
was told foreign buyer now focus on OCR property as the total outlay is lower. they are not looking at ccr now.
not sure if this is really the case.
wat about project like hillier, all buyers have to pay ABSB will they sell well with a reduced pricing?
Am comparing those who bought before and after ABSD
Hillier is different as all buyers whether foreigner or Singaporeans or PR enter same time
FEO smart to adjust prices to capture sales
But their moves already tell us something.
was told foreign buyer now focus on OCR property as the total outlay is lower. they are not looking at ccr now.
not sure if this is really the case.
Question probably can be answered by those in priority banking and those watching the influx of foreigners
2 groups the ultra rich and the working professionals
As mentioned my FT buddies who are the working professionals rather invest back home.
First group ultra rich 10% absd probably negligible to them to their total assets value but they also rationalize.
With the increasing discounts offered by developers in china for luxury properties wouldn't they buy more into china property market or into hong kong. Hong kong resale market is also having discounts sale not firesale. If firesale all will be burnt. Let's hope not for latter.
Just my 2 Viet dong inputs.
Let's see 2 months down the road.
With the increasing discounts offered by developers in china for luxury properties wouldn't they buy more into china property market
If u mentioned this u dun know much about china Chinese buyers. They buy overseas mainly to get money out of china. They will never buy china "luxury" projects.
With ABSD china Chinese will look elsewhere , more like US, London, or Auz
rattydrama
18-12-11, 16:03
Am comparing those who bought before and after ABSD
Hillier is different as all buyers whether foreigner or Singaporeans or PR enter same time
FEO smart to adjust prices to capture sales
But their moves already tell us something.
this will also mean that those launched and half sold projects might need to cut price to move sales.
on the other land, new projects to cut price and absorb ABSB. clearly the price will have to be lower than the peak price in order to clinch a sale.
i think FEO strategy is good as it breaks the psychological barrier. whichever way the market turns, they are still the winner and all buyers goes to them. LOL
the land cost is 67xpsfppr, about 1.2psf for 1 bedder with 3.6m height loft unit and 51x sq (proper siize 1bedder) and with mall and mrt...better buy then many other projects during this period. also they are not competiting the rest of the condo nearby. 1 bedder is kinda rare in this area.
devilplate
18-12-11, 16:05
Singkies still buying for investment.....hmmm
Heard only 30outlets within the mall.....how come so little....lol
For resale market a foreigner has to absorb 10% ABSD plus SSD max 16%
So if a foreigner wants to buy one now he has to ensure his margins are better than 26% otherwise no meat.
so if I'm seller I have to push Up the prices and allow negotiation and later bring it down to psf I want. For eg if I want to take home 888psf I need to price it at $1200psf. Buyer will think that he got a great deal
Ura previous transactions at 1000psf. Seller would hold at $1000psf
Seller will have caught a sucker? so seller will continue to price higher than ura price and stamp on ad negotiable. seller agent would have convinced buyer that seller is absorbing the ABSD and some SSD
devilplate
18-12-11, 16:07
Actually the pricing not cheap leh....
Its about tennery initial preview px wat.....1150psf average
rattydrama
18-12-11, 16:10
Singkies still buying for investment.....hmmm
Heard only 30outlets within the mall.....how come so little....lol
cannot manage too many empty units, not so successful else where, thus less units.
this will also mean that those launched and half sold projects might need to cut price to move sales.
.
I will storm developer office if I bought before ABSD as I'm discriminated against new buyers buying after ABSD. Lol
That's what happening in china The Chinese developers are smarter but giving options to earlier buyers to buy at discounts in future projects. Read the article it's interesting.
Lets see but the complication creates unpleasant tastes for me
My take hold back.
People are off loading units. These buyers are so desperate?
Actually the pricing not cheap leh....
Its about tennery initial preview px wat.....1150psf average
Rattydrama agree with you. The winner at the end is developer
What to do - we all have IFS or IBS itchy finger/butt syndrome
For guys when we have surplus $$ either buy car or get new girlfriend.
Same syndrome applies on all asset classes
Resale market at out of city will not be better with this ABSD, as it has affected buying sentiments as before that it was alrready not promising, ...not as if the price will drop overnight but due to low interest rate, sellers can still hold tight tight the price for those not in need to sell..but for those serious sellers offer VTO...no buyers want to offer after viewing and sellers are not expecting alot less anyway, see who blinks first is the mentality....unless come across a buyer who does not care about price movement than possibly will bite it..if not who want to commit now as it is uncertain?:o
Resale transaction vol will be low going ahead and this might result in price going down next year coupled with macro environment which is not going to be better anyway...by how mcuh drop? 10 %to 20% is my prediction ...:o
rattydrama
18-12-11, 16:18
For resale market a foreigner has to absorb 10% ABSD plus SSD max 16%
So if a foreigner wants to buy one now he has to ensure his margins are better than 26% otherwise no meat.
so if I'm seller I have to push Up the prices and allow negotiation and later bring it down to psf I want. For eg if I want to take home 888psf I need to price it at $1200psf. Buyer will think that he got a great deal
Ura previous transactions at 1000psf. Seller would hold at $1000psf
Seller will have caught a sucker? so seller will continue to price higher than ura price and stamp on ad negotiable. seller agent would have convinced buyer that seller is absorbing the ABSD and some SSD
everyone can check the URA ceveat price, buyer cannot be so stupid.
but interestingly with this 26% "taxes", is this the reason everyone is expecting the property price to drop 30%? LOL.
Actually no one is buying now unless you see things differently so maybe the food/agent is too good and u wont want to refuse.
to devil, this location is preferred in comparision with tennery.
devilplate
18-12-11, 16:18
People are off loading units. These buyers are so desperate?
1kpsf den can consider....wakaka
devilplate
18-12-11, 16:20
everyone can check the URA ceveat price, buyer cannot be so stupid.
but interestingly with this 26% "taxes", is this the reason everyone is expecting the property price to drop 30%? LOL.
Actually no one is buying now unless you see things differently so maybe the food/agent is too good and u wont want to refuse.
to devil, this location is preferred in comparision with tennery.
Both tennery and hillier cmi leh....
I prefer br leh....y br not selling for 11xxpsf? Wakaka
Higher the better as it will be better for me. :D
1kpsf den can consider....wakaka
rattydrama
18-12-11, 16:21
I will storm developer office if I bought before ABSD as I'm discriminated against new buyers buying after ABSD. Lol
That's what happening in china The Chinese developers are smarter but giving options to earlier buyers to buy at discounts in future projects. Read the article it's interesting.
Lets see but the complication creates unpleasant tastes for me
My take hold back.
no way to storm, I received a sms shortly after my visit last 5 units developer to absorb additional stamp duty. developer also play hard to get wor...LOL
If u mentioned this u dun know much about china Chinese buyers. They buy overseas mainly to get money out of china. They will never buy china "luxury" projects.
With ABSD china Chinese will look elsewhere , more like US, London, or Auz
I probably may not. Wonder why the last few years luxury properties in china snapped up and highly demanded
My colleagues in china were telling me that you be surprised to see most vacant. Let's see if they will come. Maybe coming in droves to sentosa. Hong kong used to have them coming in bus loads for hong kong new launches
But I can only say that Chinese are majority risk takers and sharp at opportunities. Otherwise we wouldnt have built the casinos
no way to storm, I received a sms shortly after my visit last 5 units developer to absorb additional stamp duty. developer also play hard to get wor...LOL
Hillier probably not a good example to see impact
Like you said those launched and only half sold will be beter proxy of impact.
Lets hear more from the ground. Cheers
devilplate
18-12-11, 16:25
no way to storm, I received a sms shortly after my visit last 5 units developer to absorb additional stamp duty. developer also play hard to get wor...LOL
Mabe able to get 3% absd rebate plus 2% fv hor....
But still very ex leh.....1kpsf plus additional 3+2% can consider la....wakaka
rattydrama
18-12-11, 16:26
Both tennery and hillier cmi leh....
I prefer br leh....y br not selling for 11xxpsf? Wakaka
hillier got green along dl2, not that bad lah...layout also good.
br - pure investment grade but whats the price for 1 bedder? layout cmi right?
devilplate
18-12-11, 16:29
hillier got green along dl2, not that bad lah...layout also good.
br - pure investment grade but whats the price for 1 bedder? layout cmi right?
Br i like bcoz mrt just a lift away...and the mall looks quite big and promising....capland malls usually ok one
Hiller...well i rather pay 8xxpsf for fh nearby
rattydrama
18-12-11, 16:30
Mabe able to get 3% absd rebate plus 2% fv hor....
But still very ex leh.....1kpsf plus additional 3+2% can consider la....wakaka
10% discount + 5% peview discount, + 3% loyalty discount + 4% furni + 3% ABSD about 25% lah.
no more liao..
well, i will consider if its 400k....lousy fading also grab.
devilplate
18-12-11, 16:33
10% discount + 5% peview discount, + 3% loyalty discount + 4% furni + 3% ABSD about 25% lah.
no more liao..
well, i will consider if its 400k....lousy fading also grab.
After toking so much....u ended up more hiong den me.....i ask for 1kpsf and u ask for 800psf....wakakaka
rattydrama
18-12-11, 16:36
Br i like bcoz mrt just a lift away...and the mall looks quite big and promising....capland malls usually ok one
Hiller...well i rather pay 8xxpsf for fh nearby
cannot be too big, seeing big crowd can be quite a headache thing. wud prefer v near mrt but less crowded mall, a mrt stop away also good. Price to pay also cheaper.
u are right capland and fraser are good in mall mgmt.
devilplate
18-12-11, 16:41
cannot be too big, seeing big crowd can be quite a headache thing. wud prefer v near mrt but less crowded mall, a mrt stop away also good. Price to pay also cheaper.
u are right capland and fraser are good in mall mgmt.
Br buy for investment mah.....target yuppies tenants one.....Especially gers who dun like to sweat.....can retain their swee swee makeup....wahahaha
Good for air stewardess too.
Br buy for investment mah.....target yuppies tenants one.....Especially gers who dun like to sweat.....can retain their swee swee makeup....wahahaha
cannot be too big, seeing big crowd can be quite a headache thing. wud prefer v near mrt but less crowded mall, a mrt stop away also good. Price to pay also cheaper.
u are right capland and fraser are good in mall mgmt.
Imagine all the angry faces when u reach home if mrt breaks down.
So how's the turnout at showrooms this weekend. Bad weather plus Christmas season plus absd.
well i see new condos near mrt no diff from others. can analogy to a bald guy who just grew hair whilst everyone else has thick hair all along.. no offense to bald forumers
i want to shave bald to ..prosperous as they say
9/10 bald men - prosperous
nothing to get excited. bukit panjang also have Mrt line hooked to cbd
yishun/woodlands have the mrt line to orchard for a long time
pasir ris also
back to ABSD, the global economies will unfold its 2012 chapters ..all waiting to see and hold cash.
elections in asia countries Taiwan, malaysia hongkong US Korea
challenge for newly elected PM -thailand
banks in europe under tremendous pressure
good news on US stats will continue.
please add on
rattydrama
18-12-11, 17:18
So how's the turnout at showrooms this weekend. Bad weather plus Christmas season plus absd.
hillier still crowded but it is not packed untill cannot walk.
rattydrama
18-12-11, 17:21
Br buy for investment mah.....target yuppies tenants one.....Especially gers who dun like to sweat.....can retain their swee swee makeup....wahahaha
earlier posted br is under my radar but as all said, keep bullet for better buys be it price or location.
hillier main concern is the fh surrounding them.
1 br only...400k is my price now...who knows maybe it is achivable. LOL
I am not a fan of 1br.
devilplate
18-12-11, 17:23
earlier posted br is under my radar but as all said, keep bullet for better buys be it price or location.
Target ccr now.....
I m looking at reflections leh.... Do u remember wats the launch px for low flr golf facing?
devilplate
18-12-11, 17:24
Imagine all the angry faces when u reach home if mrt breaks down.
Den u shd buy high end orchard.....
Ocr surely got ppl take mrt one lor
Make sure no large feature columns in the living room for firesale units.
Target ccr now.....
I m looking at reflections leh.... Do u remember wats the launch px for low flr golf facing?
devilplate
18-12-11, 17:26
earlier posted br is under my radar but as all said, keep bullet for better buys be it price or location.
hillier main concern is the fh surrounding them.
1 br only...400k is my price now...who knows maybe it is achivable. LOL
I am not a fan of 1br.
Everything possible.....hillview last time only 4xxpsf
devilplate
18-12-11, 17:27
Make sure no large feature columns in the living room for firesale units.
Do u rem the launch px?
Or any helpful bros can help to check?
Got column nvm, offer 10% lower lor....wakaka
rattydrama
18-12-11, 17:31
Target ccr now.....
I m looking at reflections leh.... Do u remember wats the launch px for low flr golf facing?
went batam recently and seeing reflections from the ferry near distance make me tempted to buy. Its very nice.
i think it was about 1500psf and in 2009 dropped to 1200psf? - not sure wat is the facing. stand to be corrected.
it this better than the sph project you are eyeing?
devilplate
18-12-11, 17:33
went batam recently and seeing reflections from the ferry near distance make me tempted to buy. Its very nice.
i think it was about 1500psf and in 2009 dropped to 1200psf? - not sure wat is the facing. stand to be corrected.
it this better than the thomson unit you are eyeing?
Thomson? U mean viva?
1200psf golf course can grab leh if haf now :D
rattydrama
18-12-11, 17:48
Thomson? U mean viva?
1200psf golf course can grab leh if haf now :D
that sph project. viva good recommendation.
now cannot buy anything. market uncertain.
devilplate
18-12-11, 18:03
that sph project. viva good recommendation.
now cannot buy anything. market uncertain.
Sky11 definitely better......more exclusive....:D
Now window shop shop lor....px drop den buy la....no drop no buy :D
buttercarp
18-12-11, 19:07
went batam recently and seeing reflections from the ferry near distance make me tempted to buy. Its very nice.
i think it was about 1500psf and in 2009 dropped to 1200psf? - not sure wat is the facing. stand to be corrected.
it this better than the sph project you are eyeing?
Yeah.......
I went to Peach Garden Restaurant which was in Reflections last year and the view was already great on the first level.
rattydrama
18-12-11, 19:23
Sky11 definitely better......more exclusive....:D
Now window shop shop lor....px drop den buy la....no drop no buy :D
overlooking the port/cable car, sentosa and next ppty distance away should be better?
when the club gets taken back, the golf course view will be gone...
Do u trust their views?
S’pore housing market to decline next year
The threat of a global economic double-dip and additional property cooling measures in Singapore may result in a decline of buying interest in the next six months, according to latest residential market report by Savills.
This year, Savills expects new home sales (excluding executive condominiums) to hover between 15,000 units and 15,500 units, a slight decline from last year’s record of 16,292 units.
On the other hand, leasing volume is expected to rise further as more foreigners shift from buying to renting homes.
Due to the rise of expatriates relocating to Singapore for job opportunities, leasing demand is expected to reach between 10,000 and 10,500 transactions in Q4.
Savills expects total leasing volume to reach a record high of between 44,000 and 45,500 transactions this year.
According to its data, prices of super-luxury and high-end homes are expected to remain stable in Q4, after a decline in the previous quarter.
The average unit price for non-landed high-end private homes rose marginally by one percent to S$2,268 psf in Q4, while the average price for super-luxury residential properties dropped marginally by 0.2 percent to S$3,661 psf in the same period.
Prices for new mass-market non-landed homes may grow by one percent in Q4 2011.
Meanwhile, after factoring in several creative marketing packages, prices of new mass-market homes could fall five percent for the whole of next year, while prices of high-end non-landed homes may slip by 10 percent.
In addition, rents may correct by five percent next year as a result of more completed homes in the coming months and shrinking expatriate residential budgets
Are they sure?
Analyst says new measures to stay for good
The additional buyer’s stamp duty could become a permanent fixture in the residential property market even after prices cool, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Chua Hak Bin, an economist at the bank, said cooling measures implemented in 1996 to differentiate between local and foreign buyers were eventually repealed but this new measure is different.
“The 1996 measures were seen as more of a move to cool the market, but this round seems more like a political move,” he said.
He noted that the latest measures aim to differentiate between the rights and privileges of Singaporeans, permanent residents (PRs) and foreigners.
Under these rules, foreigners are required to pay an additional 10 percent stamp duty when acquiring residential property. PRs who purchase second and subsequent homes and Singaporeans who buy third and subsequent homes have to pay an extra three percent stamp duty.
“The measures come at a time when foreigners make up around 40 percent of the luxury market and are seen to be making headway into the mass-market home segment. Singapore is also seen as a good place to park capital,” he said.
Meanwhile, Sing Tien Foo, Associate Professor at the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) department of real estate, cautioned that the effects of the new measures could be disastrous if the Eurozone debt crisis continues.
“While the measures will help stabilise the market and eliminate speculators, it will also block liquidity from entering the property market,” he said, adding that “this may result in a sharp downward spiral of prices.”
Analyst always get it wrong, either their prediction or timing..., maybe flipping a coin is better.
Analysts are best at doing post-event rationalising...:doh:
So is... "Singaporeans continue to argue over whether a rise in foreign property investors is a good thing" ?
A lot of my friends at the sidelines are starting their shopping, hoping this CM5 will finally give them an opportunity to come in on the pullback.
A lot of my friends at the sidelines are starting their shopping, hoping this CM5 will finally give them an opportunity to come in on the pullback.Tell them to give the market 3 months to react before their shopping spree... but must sign within another 3 months before market will reflect an increase in demand again from all these shoppers :D and then rebound! All provided recession remains at bay. :sleep:
Have not bought anything since early 2009. No good sale. Reserve $ for firing.
Have not bought anything since early 2009. No good sale. Reserve $ for firing.Start oiling and cleaning your rifle le... ;)
Yup! Hope it can really get a good shot with the platinum bullet. :D
Start oiling and cleaning your rifle le... ;)
Yup! Hope it can really get a good shot with the platinum bullet. :DAll the best... must be a sniper... one shot one kill... unless you have many platinum bullet... :D
I think left mostly 99LH to be launched at discounts. Got to wait long long for FH and 999LH launches for discounts.
Allthepies
22-12-11, 06:52
for investment purpose now go for stocks, no stamp duty and no political intervention : ) if die die must buy wait for next GE : ) ??
devilplate
22-12-11, 07:19
I think left mostly 99LH to be launched at discounts. Got to wait long long for FH and 999LH launches for discounts.
Go for resale n subsale mah
devilplate
22-12-11, 07:20
for investment purpose now go for stocks, no stamp duty and no political intervention : ) if die die must buy wait for next GE : ) ??
Y donate money to experienced traders? Unless u r one of them :D
Just a small timer. Still learning from people here.
All the best... must be a sniper... one shot one kill... unless you have many platinum bullet... :D
Go for resale n subsale mah
I doubt the owners will want to release their units at low prices because they bought them quite cheap and holding costs are low. It's developers who have to worry as the CMs and other new property regulations are hitting them hard, and they should be at their weakest point from 2H 2012 onwards.
devilplate
22-12-11, 08:50
I doubt the owners will want to release their units at low prices because they bought them quite cheap and holding costs are low. It's developers who have to worry as the CMs and other new property regulations are hitting them hard, and they should be at their weakest point from 2H 2012 onwards.
there bound to be owners wana deleverage since they bot it cheap
Then the breaking point is when interest rates go up... will see more sales then... :cheers6:
I think left mostly 99LH to be launched at discounts. Got to wait long long for FH and 999LH launches for discounts.
Go for LH99 only if its within 500m from mrt station, FH/LH999 discount got to wait i think.
Don't need to wait if you are going for resale/subsale ones.
Go for LH99 only if its within 500m from mrt station, FH/LH999 discount got to wait i think.
Then the breaking point is when interest rates go up... will see more sales then... :cheers6:
I dunno...wouldn't that also hit buyers as well? :scared-4:
Ok, not 'rich' mainland Chinese with suitcases full of cash, but you know what I mean :p
I dunno...wouldn't that also hit buyers as well? :scared-4:
Ok, not 'rich' mainland Chinese with suitcases full of cash, but you know what I mean :pTrue true but referring to those who are already waiting for golden durian drop so they have ready cash so bank rates have no effect on them but it will certainly affect the holding power of owners... :cheers5:
I doubt the owners will want to release their units at low prices because they bought them quite cheap and holding costs are low. It's developers who have to worry as the CMs and other new property regulations are hitting them hard, and they should be at their weakest point from 2H 2012 onwards.
also those buyers who bought at peak or high price....:o
Regulators
22-12-11, 12:47
developers of suburban condos will remain buoyant coz majority of those who buy are first time singaporean and pr pte pty buyers or singaporean buyers of second pty. Only those singaporeans buying third pty, pr buying second pty and foreigners affected, making that probably less than 10% of mass market home buyers imo. I am not sure about whether ownership of pty overseas constitute ownership of one pty for the purposes of absd, anyone care to clarify on that?
devilplate
22-12-11, 13:49
Overseas Ppty not counted
also those buyers who bought at peak or high price....:o
:o who always made the new launch price so HIGH?:o
:o who always made the new launch price so HIGH?:o
Developers?
Developers?Its a combined effort between developers and govt. Land parcels are always awarded to the one with the highest bid so prices are just pushed up up and away! :( Only in uncertain times like now (after the latest CM and facing potential recession) will developers refrain from bidding ridiculous prices.
Then again, it is the govt's duty to keep housing prices going up simply because of greater repurcussions if prices start to fall... :eek: but also cannot rise too quickly thus the CM.
Developers?
the singkies upgraders he he he...nobody points a gun at them to buy at so high...they bite at whatever throw at them at new launch...:D
the singkies upgraders he he he...nobody points a gun at them to buy at so high...they bite at whatever throw at them at new launch...:D
speaking of high high, anyone any idea what is HDB rental for a 4/5 room flat nowadays?
the singkies upgraders he he he...nobody points a gun at them to buy at so high...they bite at whatever throw at them at new launch...:D
Ya Lor. Resales cheaper than developer launch what.
Don't need developer to give discount already affordable.
Many brothers here have units available and value for money. ;)
Buy Buy Buy resales :D
speaking of high high, anyone any idea what is HDB rental for a 4/5 room flat nowadays?Just log onto propertyguru.com and all information is there... rental price varies quite a bit across various parts of the island but I guess its almost certainly between $2.2 to $3.2k. :)
Are those transacted rental or asking rental?
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