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05-01-12, 18:01
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,472264-1325707140,00.html?
Published January 4, 2012
Home prices sputter, poised to fall this year
Anaemic Q4 growth hints at falling prices of private homes, HDB resale flats
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) Prices of both private homes as well as HDB resale flats are poised to fall this year. This was foreshadowed in the official flash estimates for the fourth quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in growth for both segments.
Urban Redevelopment Authority's private residential property price index rose a mere 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2011, its most anaemic growth in 10 quarters since the index bottomed out in Q2 2009.
From the 15.8 per cent q-on-q increase in Q3 2009, the index has now moderated for nine consecutive quarters, according to CBRE's analysis. The 0.2 per cent q-on-q hike in Q4 was lower than the 1.3 per cent q-on-q rise for Q3 last year. For the whole of 2011, the index rose 5.9 per cent - a marked slowdown from the 17.6 per cent jump in 2010.
Most market watchers say it is a given that prices will go down this year, amid the weaker economic outlook and poorer sentiment, especially after the introduction of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) last month.
'Developers know they need to cut prices but the difficulty is in gauging how much. If they don't cut enough, buyers are not going to act. But if they give too much, there's always a fear that buyers will expect a bit more. What you want to do is to give enough for the fence sitters to come back into the market. Despite the weaker economic outlook, there's still a lot of cash and liquidity in the market,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.
DTZ's head of Asia Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon predicts a 10-15 per cent drop in URA's overall private home price index in 2012 citing the ABSD which took effect on Dec 8 and the economic slowdown. The luxury housing segment, where there are more foreign buyers, is expected to take the biggest hit given the top ABSD rate of 10 per cent levied on their residential property purchases.
CRBE executive director Li Hiaw Ho expects overall demand for new private homes to be trimmed by 15-20 per cent this year.
'Prices of luxury/prime condos may fall by 10-15 per cent in 2012, and mass-market condos, by 5-10 per cent,' he added.
URA's flash estimates show that the price index for non-landed private homes in Outside Central Region (OCR) - where mass-market condo projects are located - was the star performer, though it has also dimmed somewhat. It rose 0.6 per cent q-on-q in Q4 last year, a slower rise than the 2.1 per cent increase in Q3 2011. The full-year 2011 increase of 7.7 per cent was also slower than the 15 per cent climb in 2010.
Prices of non-landed private homes in OCR increased the fastest as demand was supported by HDB upgraders as well as investors, notes DTZ's Ms Chua.
Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui notes: 'The strong run in the OCR market has led to their current (Q4 2011) prices being 28.3 per cent above their pre global financial crisis peak in 2008, while prices in Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) are only 6 per cent and 15.9 per cent higher than their respective 2008 peaks.'
The price index for non-landed homes in CCR - which includes the traditional prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove - appreciated 0.5 per cent q-on-q in Q4, following a 0.7 per cent gain in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 4 per cent, significantly lower than the 14.2 per cent rise in 2010. The index for RCR for Q4 was unchanged from the preceding quarter, taking the full-year appreciation to 4.4 per cent, after rising 17.6 per cent in 2010.
In the public housing segment, HDB's resale flat price index rose just 1.7 per cent q-on-q in Q4, after rising 3.8 per cent in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 10.7 per cent, slower than 2010's 14.1 per cent climb.
The ramp-up in supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats launched by HDB last year as well as the increase in buyers' monthly household income ceiling from $8,000 to $10,000 has led to more first-time home buyers switching to BTO flats from the resale market, say agents.
ERA's key executive officer Eugene Lim says that cash over valuations (COVs) stabilised at around $30,000-40,000 in Q4, based on transactions handled by ERA. 'Going by what happened in the last recession, flats were sold at or below valuation. If Singapore enters a recession this year, COVs may also turn negative and hence transacted prices also fall.' He predicts HDB's resale flat price index may ease 5-8 per cent for the whole of 2012 in such a scenario.
The drop will be more severe if the HDB proceeds to allot a higher proportion of new Build-To-Order (BTO) flats to second timer buyers, as this leads to further diversion of demand from the HDB resale market.
However, if Singapore escapes recession, the HDB resale flat price index should still increase by up to 5 per cent this year, even if the government sets aside more new flats to second timers, he added.
PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail forecasts a correction of up to 3 per cent in the index. Dennis Wee Group senior manager Lee Sze Teck reckons it could ease up to 5 per cent.
HDB will launch 3,890 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines this month.
Published January 4, 2012
Home prices sputter, poised to fall this year
Anaemic Q4 growth hints at falling prices of private homes, HDB resale flats
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) Prices of both private homes as well as HDB resale flats are poised to fall this year. This was foreshadowed in the official flash estimates for the fourth quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in growth for both segments.
Urban Redevelopment Authority's private residential property price index rose a mere 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2011, its most anaemic growth in 10 quarters since the index bottomed out in Q2 2009.
From the 15.8 per cent q-on-q increase in Q3 2009, the index has now moderated for nine consecutive quarters, according to CBRE's analysis. The 0.2 per cent q-on-q hike in Q4 was lower than the 1.3 per cent q-on-q rise for Q3 last year. For the whole of 2011, the index rose 5.9 per cent - a marked slowdown from the 17.6 per cent jump in 2010.
Most market watchers say it is a given that prices will go down this year, amid the weaker economic outlook and poorer sentiment, especially after the introduction of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) last month.
'Developers know they need to cut prices but the difficulty is in gauging how much. If they don't cut enough, buyers are not going to act. But if they give too much, there's always a fear that buyers will expect a bit more. What you want to do is to give enough for the fence sitters to come back into the market. Despite the weaker economic outlook, there's still a lot of cash and liquidity in the market,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.
DTZ's head of Asia Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon predicts a 10-15 per cent drop in URA's overall private home price index in 2012 citing the ABSD which took effect on Dec 8 and the economic slowdown. The luxury housing segment, where there are more foreign buyers, is expected to take the biggest hit given the top ABSD rate of 10 per cent levied on their residential property purchases.
CRBE executive director Li Hiaw Ho expects overall demand for new private homes to be trimmed by 15-20 per cent this year.
'Prices of luxury/prime condos may fall by 10-15 per cent in 2012, and mass-market condos, by 5-10 per cent,' he added.
URA's flash estimates show that the price index for non-landed private homes in Outside Central Region (OCR) - where mass-market condo projects are located - was the star performer, though it has also dimmed somewhat. It rose 0.6 per cent q-on-q in Q4 last year, a slower rise than the 2.1 per cent increase in Q3 2011. The full-year 2011 increase of 7.7 per cent was also slower than the 15 per cent climb in 2010.
Prices of non-landed private homes in OCR increased the fastest as demand was supported by HDB upgraders as well as investors, notes DTZ's Ms Chua.
Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui notes: 'The strong run in the OCR market has led to their current (Q4 2011) prices being 28.3 per cent above their pre global financial crisis peak in 2008, while prices in Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) are only 6 per cent and 15.9 per cent higher than their respective 2008 peaks.'
The price index for non-landed homes in CCR - which includes the traditional prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove - appreciated 0.5 per cent q-on-q in Q4, following a 0.7 per cent gain in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 4 per cent, significantly lower than the 14.2 per cent rise in 2010. The index for RCR for Q4 was unchanged from the preceding quarter, taking the full-year appreciation to 4.4 per cent, after rising 17.6 per cent in 2010.
In the public housing segment, HDB's resale flat price index rose just 1.7 per cent q-on-q in Q4, after rising 3.8 per cent in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 10.7 per cent, slower than 2010's 14.1 per cent climb.
The ramp-up in supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats launched by HDB last year as well as the increase in buyers' monthly household income ceiling from $8,000 to $10,000 has led to more first-time home buyers switching to BTO flats from the resale market, say agents.
ERA's key executive officer Eugene Lim says that cash over valuations (COVs) stabilised at around $30,000-40,000 in Q4, based on transactions handled by ERA. 'Going by what happened in the last recession, flats were sold at or below valuation. If Singapore enters a recession this year, COVs may also turn negative and hence transacted prices also fall.' He predicts HDB's resale flat price index may ease 5-8 per cent for the whole of 2012 in such a scenario.
The drop will be more severe if the HDB proceeds to allot a higher proportion of new Build-To-Order (BTO) flats to second timer buyers, as this leads to further diversion of demand from the HDB resale market.
However, if Singapore escapes recession, the HDB resale flat price index should still increase by up to 5 per cent this year, even if the government sets aside more new flats to second timers, he added.
PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail forecasts a correction of up to 3 per cent in the index. Dennis Wee Group senior manager Lee Sze Teck reckons it could ease up to 5 per cent.
HDB will launch 3,890 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines this month.