Yet Another pessimistic view of the prop mkt.. [Archive] - Condo Forum Singapore Property Review Mortgage Loan Buy Rent Sell Real Estate

blackjack21trader

10-01-12, 05:06

Anal-lists try to predict the future. I am different.。。。。。。。。。。，

I AM THE FUTURE.

2012: MEGA ECONOMIC BOOM

Our Solar Sun and Earth, will start to align themselves into a straight line with *the Center Star of the Galaxy Milky Way- The Galactic Center called Sagittarius & Leo.

Beginning Feb 2012 until Dec 2012, when finally they will be in a Perfect Straight Line summoning the Arrival of the Universal Golden Era which occurs only once in a million years.

Human Knowledge will be elevated many levels up in connection with the Galactic Center.

In early 2012, The US will recover from her recession ( happening now ! )and Europe’s debts problems will find a solution ( happening soon !). It will be the Golden Age in the East leading the West into a full economic recovery.

A Quad-Polar World will start to take form- with US, Europe, Russia and China leading the Globe into a New Era of World’s Peace.

The Main Focus of the New Age will be the Pursue of New Alternative Energy. ( happening in the US now as she unbind herself from the Middle East oil fields and gas slowly )

Dow will touch 15,000 and beyond and so will STI hit more than 4000. World’s stock markets will rally beyond never seen before highs.

Singapore property will continue to be in very high demand. Visitors and tourists to Singapore will rise beyond anybody’s imagination. The tentative figure has been whispered by the Sky People *to be at least 18 million in 2012.

2012: Mega Global Economic Booms in the Making………

神龙股侠。

blackjack21trader

10-01-12, 05:21

ysyap

10-01-12, 05:33

The smarter fools try to predict the future using the past.

The stupid fools try to predict the future using the present and past.

I am THE MOST INTELLIGENT AND HANDSOME......I AM THE FUTURE.Lol! Handsome man... if you are the future, then you don't exist now... only Arnie in Terminator and Michael J Fox in Back to the Future came to the present from the future... :D

ysyap

10-01-12, 05:34

yup but its the waiting period thats killing...:doh:In the mean time, tcss lor... anyway its only a prediction... may happen sooner but may also happen later... Oops! :scared-5:

kane

10-01-12, 08:11

The person who started this thread should be responsible for updating this at the end of Q1,2,3,4 of 2012.

It was just a few weeks ago that analysts are confidently predicting 30% decrease in 2012~~!!

Now this is 12.5%. We will have to watch and monitor whats the next prediction.

Of course drop will be good for all la! Can buy cheap, but then if u look back, after every CM, people predict market will crash.

As usual, stay calm and cool la!

DKSG
Stay Calm & Cool

Cos they didn't expect Cm5 to have such a muted response. And hence, they adopt aa less bearish stance.

HP65

10-01-12, 09:06

Ok lah, at least not a major crash of 50% haa haa....A combined 20% drop at the end of 2013 will bring it back to early 2010 pricing, which is good for most people.

:)

I reckon no need to wait so long. I went to view a resale D10 project last weekend, asking price is already 10% lower than URA Dec 2011 price. Seller's agent even actively hint to me to try offering at 13% below Dec 2011 price, telling me very motivated seller, seller has left country already, don't want to hold it. And this unit is a quieter, more pleasant unit than the other unit.

CCR

10-01-12, 14:49

HP65

10-01-12, 15:20

I really dont agree that prime luxury will drop more than others...In the last 3 years OCr properties went up so much, so if CCR properties drop the most so there is no gap between a Sengkang condo and an Holland road condo? Is that even possible????Holland road condo only 1500+ to 1800+ psf.... if drop 20% then become 1300 psf to 1500 psf? then who wants to stay in Sengkang?

Actually there is a going to TOP D11 LH project whose asking price is the same (PSF) as Bedok Residences :doh: While that project is not `sitting' on top of an MRT, its walkable <500m. There might be a short period where the gap is close and when people notice the small gap, I reckon OCR will drop. Of coz as I mentioned, new developer sales will remain sticky and resale/ subsale can find some good deals. Resale/ subsale owners are more willing to nego.....

stalingrad

10-01-12, 15:33

condo prices for prime areas would go down 20%. those for outlying areas will barely budge.

teddybear

10-01-12, 15:48

CCR condos like Aspen Heights at $1450 psf go down 20%. That becomes $1160 psf. Oh my god! Cheaper than Bishan resale private property! Not to mention those Bedok Residences at $1350 psf! Possible or folly? :p

condo prices for prime areas would go down 20%. those for outlying areas will barely budge.

peterng8

10-01-12, 16:03

The prices of Singapore’s residential property (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/) will decline by 12.5 percent this year and a further 8 percent during 2013 according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“We maintain our view of a 2012 inflection point for residential pricing driven by excess supply, demand moderation and slowing economic growth,” noted the report which was published today.

“We forecast prices to fall 12.5 percent in 2012 and 8 percent in 2013 and would avoid exposure to residential developers. Despite recent price declines, we think it is too early to turn positive and would wait for evidence of a physical market correction before re-visiting the sector.”

Commenting on the latest attempts to cool the market which were introduced in early December, the authors of the report said: “While the first rounds of cooling measures did not succeed in bringing prices down, they did slow the pace of price acceleration. We believe the introduction of the additional buyers stamp duty will tip the scale and put a dent on investment demand, particularly from foreigners who account for 20 percent of volumes. We expect the measures to accelerate pricing declines.”

Bank of America Merrill Lynch had previously forecast a 7.5 percent decline of residential property prices during 2012 and 10 percent in 2013. The company is now predicting a combined 20 percent drop during the next two years.

The company is also predicting substantial oversupply in the private market (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/condo-directory) during the next four years.

“We believe the high-end will be impacted more severely from a reduction in foreign participation while mass-market will be hit by affordability concerns and HDB policies. Historic high supply will easily absorb any pent-up demand. During 2012-2015, we expect 60,000 new private homes to be delivered, equating to 15,000 new units per annum (70 percent above the 15-year historic average). Together with HDB supply, we estimate an addition of 150,000 units (+13 percent) to housing stock. Even after we account for estimated pent-up demand of 14,000 units, we see oversupply of up to 25,500 units in the private market by 2015, hence putting pressure on prices.”

samuelk

11-01-12, 05:10

The smarter fools try to predict the future using the past.

The stupid fools try to predict the future using the present and past.

I am THE MOST INTELLIGENT AND HANDSOME......I AM THE FUTURE.
Bro.. must find out where u buy yr srong coffee from. Must have the same sprit when I go to office.:cool:

peterng8

11-01-12, 10:19

NOT i say one hor...:p

New property fees seen to drive away foreign buyers
Published: 2 hours 36 min ago (11 Jan 2012)
The 10% increase in transaction cost is expected to slow down foreign buying transactions this year.
In a statement, UOB Kay Hian said the jump in property fees will likely act as a “strong deterrent” against foreigners looking to purchase properties.
Foreign buyers, whose proportion has been increasing steadily from 11% in 3Q10 to 19% in 3Q11 accounted for about 21% of overall non-landed transactions (excluding executive condominiums) in 4Q11.
Meanwhile, the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) latest flash estimates indicate that private home prices stayed flat at +0.2% qoq in 4Q11 vs +1.3% in the previous quarter.
This is the ninth consecutive quarter of moderation in private residential prices. Overall in 2011, private property prices increased about 6% while public housing prices advanced at a slower pace of 1.7% qoq versus 3.8% in 3Q11.
UOB Kay Hian said that while the flash estimates saw a mere moderation in physical property prices, the final figures due in the last week of January will likely reflect a downturn in property prices.
According to the analyst, its recent show flat visits affirm the trend of falling volumes (about 20-30%) and moderating prices despite hefty discounts offered by developers.
For 2012, it expects transaction volumes to slow by 20-30% and prices to fall by 10-15%.

teddybear

11-01-12, 11:53

They so late? I already said that since the measure came out in Dec 2011. :o
Ok lah, since they not worth buying, have to rent lor! Rental cheong ah! All landlords should just jack up renewal rental by 20%! :p

NOT i say one hor...:p

New property fees seen to drive away foreign buyers
Published: 2 hours 36 min ago (11 Jan 2012)
The 10% increase in transaction cost is expected to slow down foreign buying transactions this year.
In a statement, UOB Kay Hian said the jump in property fees will likely act as a “strong deterrent” against foreigners looking to purchase properties.
Foreign buyers, whose proportion has been increasing steadily from 11% in 3Q10 to 19% in 3Q11 accounted for about 21% of overall non-landed transactions (excluding executive condominiums) in 4Q11.
Meanwhile, the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) latest flash estimates indicate that private home prices stayed flat at +0.2% qoq in 4Q11 vs +1.3% in the previous quarter.
This is the ninth consecutive quarter of moderation in private residential prices. Overall in 2011, private property prices increased about 6% while public housing prices advanced at a slower pace of 1.7% qoq versus 3.8% in 3Q11.
UOB Kay Hian said that while the flash estimates saw a mere moderation in physical property prices, the final figures due in the last week of January will likely reflect a downturn in property prices.
According to the analyst, its recent show flat visits affirm the trend of falling volumes (about 20-30%) and moderating prices despite hefty discounts offered by developers.
For 2012, it expects transaction volumes to slow by 20-30% and prices to fall by 10-15%.

peterng8

11-01-12, 12:42

not i say one hor again...:p

Singapore property developers are losing momentum

published on 9 Jan 2012

As residential property prices grew a measly 0.2% in 4Q11.
DMG foresees a drop off in transaction volume with potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude and expects prices in new launches at the lower end of expectations leading to lower overall residential prices from 2Q12.
Here’s more from DMG:
URA released its flash estimates for the 4Q11 residential PPI, which saw a +0.2% QoQ increase in residential property prices. This latest data point follows from a rise of +1.3% in 3Q11, which reflects further moderation of the upward momentum in private residential prices. From a sub-segment perspective, notably the mass segment is showing significant easing in price momentum rising +0.6% in 4Q11 versus +2.1% in 3Q11.
Private residential sales continue to decelerate. URA released its flash estimate for the residential PPI for 4Q11, which saw a +0.2% QoQ increase in residential property prices. This latest data point follows from a rise of +1.3% in 3Q11, which reflects further easing in the upward momentum of private residential prices as the rate of increase in prices continue to moderate for the 9th sequential quarter. Prices in the CCR, RCR and OCR increased by 0.5%, 0% and 0.6% respectively during the quarter, compared to 0.7%, 1.2% and 2.1% respectively in 3Q11.
Mass segment projects to test market demand. Since the flash estimates are compiled based on transactions in the first ten weeks of each quarter, we believe post ABSD policy impact is yet to be reflected in the industry figures. In the near term, we may see potential new launches in the mass segment to test market demand in 1Q12 eg. Hillier by Far East (Hillview, 528 units; TOP 2015) of which according to press reports half of project has been sold after launch post ABSD, Watertown by F&N/Far East/Sekisui (Punggol, 992 units; TOP 2017) and CDL’s The Rainforest EC (CCK, 466 units; TOP 2015).
Expect range-bound performance, NEUTRAL on developers. Moving forward i) we foresee a drop off in transaction volume with potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude ii) while we think there is still buying demand in the mass segment with first time buyers unaffected by the new measures, we expect prices in new launches at the lower end of expectations leading to lower overall residential prices from 2Q12.
While we think potential negatives are likely priced in, a lack of upside catalysts from a potential plateau in property prices and policy overhang suggests a lack of equity investors’ interest is likely to persist and developers’ share price performance likely to be range bound

peterng8

11-01-12, 12:44

peterng8

11-01-12, 13:19

another pcs of news not i say ..:p

Property shock: Developer pays 20% less than land bid for similar site last year

Published: 2 hours 52 min ago(11 Jan 2011)
Yes, prices are going down.
OCBC Investment Research said:
A CDL subsidiary, Sunmaster Holdings Pte. Ltd., was part of a consortium that put in the top bid (S$388.1m or S$495 psf) for a 99- year residential GLS site at Mt. Vernon Rd yesterday. This bid was 7.6% above the 2nd bidder in a tender exercise that attracted five bidders.
For this development, we estimate the breakeven ASP at ~S$880 psf. Assuming a 33% effective stake and average selling prices of S$1,050 psf, we expect an accretion of four S-cents to CDL’s RNAV and three Scents to its fair value estimate. Note that transactions over the last year at nearby 8@Woodleigh, a 99-year condominium, are at S$1,100 psf on average.
Hence we believe that the price paid for this site is fairly reasonable, despite uncertainty in the domestic residential space, and expect the share price to have a neutral/slightly positive reaction on this acquisition.
Recall that the consortium had acquired a nearby GLS residential site at Bartley Rd/Lorong How Sun in Mar 11 at a price which was 25% higher (S$621 psf). Though the Mt. Vernon site is further out from the MRT station, the starkly lower top bid and reduced bidder interest (there were eight at the Mar 11 tender) clearly reflects heightened cautiousness among developers, in our view.
Moreover, we think the bid could also have reflected, to an extent, additional strategic value the site holds for the consortium; a stronger bid would prevent otherwise even softer land prices in that vicinity and also provide the flexibility to control the launch schedules of both sites.

teddybear

11-01-12, 13:53

Oh my God! CM5 benefits developers because they can pay 20% less for land and yet sell at same price as before!!! :doh:

another pcs of news not i say ..:p

Property shock: Developer pays 20% less than land bid for similar site last year

Published: 2 hours 52 min ago(11 Jan 2011)
Yes, prices are going down.
OCBC Investment Research said:
A CDL subsidiary, Sunmaster Holdings Pte. Ltd., was part of a consortium that put in the top bid (S$388.1m or S$495 psf) for a 99- year residential GLS site at Mt. Vernon Rd yesterday. This bid was 7.6% above the 2nd bidder in a tender exercise that attracted five bidders.
For this development, we estimate the breakeven ASP at ~S$880 psf. Assuming a 33% effective stake and average selling prices of S$1,050 psf, we expect an accretion of four S-cents to CDL’s RNAV and three Scents to its fair value estimate. Note that transactions over the last year at nearby 8@Woodleigh, a 99-year condominium, are at S$1,100 psf on average.
Hence we believe that the price paid for this site is fairly reasonable, despite uncertainty in the domestic residential space, and expect the share price to have a neutral/slightly positive reaction on this acquisition.
Recall that the consortium had acquired a nearby GLS residential site at Bartley Rd/Lorong How Sun in Mar 11 at a price which was 25% higher (S$621 psf). Though the Mt. Vernon site is further out from the MRT station, the starkly lower top bid and reduced bidder interest (there were eight at the Mar 11 tender) clearly reflects heightened cautiousness among developers, in our view.
Moreover, we think the bid could also have reflected, to an extent, additional strategic value the site holds for the consortium; a stronger bid would prevent otherwise even softer land prices in that vicinity and also provide the flexibility to control the launch schedules of both sites.

Montaigne

11-01-12, 15:07

I understood that for 99LH plot, once acquired have to launch and sell within 5 years. How about for FH enbloced plot? Is there a window period to launch and sell?

peterng8

11-01-12, 15:09

Oh my God! CM5 benefits developers because they can pay 20% less for land and yet sell at same price as before!!! :doh:

so the potential buyers dont gong gong go and buy high high from the develpers and contribute to their already fat coffer worse of all then trigger the bloody CM6 ..all die together.....sucks:p

CCR

11-01-12, 15:11

condo prices for prime areas would go down 20%. those for outlying areas will barely budge.

I can bet you that will never happen!!!!!

I mean honestly.... put your hands to your heart... does that even sound logical????? LV bag same price as Furla / Coach bag?????

hopeful

11-01-12, 15:22

I can bet you that will never happen!!!!!

I mean honestly.... put your hands to your heart... does that even sound logical????? LV bag same price as Furla / Coach bag?????
in Indonesia, a new mercedes is more expensive than a new kijang.
10 years later, the 10 year old kijang is more expensive than the 10 year mercedes.
why? kijang spare parts is cheaper than the mercedes spare parts.

any connection to LV bag and Coach bag? i dont know :beats-me-man:.

CCR

11-01-12, 15:33

in Indonesia, a new mercedes is more expensive than a new kijang.
10 years later, the 10 year old kijang is more expensive than the 10 year mercedes.
why? kijang spare parts is cheaper than the mercedes spare parts.

any connection to LV bag and Coach bag? i dont know :beats-me-man:.

For property... all maintenance the same for CCR or OCR properties... so that shouldnt happen

teddybear

11-01-12, 16:53

CCR good quality ones need less maintenance lah! :p
Others leak here, leak there, spoil here, spoil there, each lift every 3-4 months spoil 1 time, each time down a few days, if private lift - gone case! Give their residents a chance to do more exercise - climb the staircase! :scared-1:

For property... all maintenance the same for CCR or OCR properties... so that shouldnt happen

11-01-12, 21:11

in Indonesia, a new mercedes is more expensive than a new kijang.
10 years later, the 10 year old kijang is more expensive than the 10 year mercedes.
why? kijang spare parts is cheaper than the mercedes spare parts.

any connection to LV bag and Coach bag? i dont know :beats-me-man:.

It all depends on whether its FH or LH. LH mercedes will be cheaper than FH Kijang... it's a matter of time....:tongue3:

peterng8

12-01-12, 08:55

i never mention anything hah, ...so don't flame me:p

Residential prices will erode till 2013: BAML

(12 Jan 2012)

Expect a 12.5% decline in 2012 and a subsequent 8% fall in 2013 for Singapore housing.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said a bulging inventory coupled with retreating demand will hammer down prices in the next couple of years.
"We maintain our view of a 2012 inflection point for residential pricing driven by excess supply, demand moderation and slowing economic growth. We forecast prices to fall 12.5% in 2012 & 8% in 2013 and would avoid exposure to developers with significant exposure to domestic residential - CIT & WINGT and would prefer developers with stable income from commercial exposure – UOL & OUE," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a new 2012 property outlook report.
For the broader property market, BAML is bearish on Chinese expansions but is bullish that retail spaces and S-REITS in general will weather the storm.
"Singapore developers have aggressively deployed capital into the China, seeking growth beyond their home market. While stocks enjoyed the benefit of the 06/07 China re-rating, they have subsequently been penalized, underperforming peers & showing declining profitability. We expect the China physical market will suffer from a cyclical downturn and would hinder the performance of KPLD & CAPL," said BAML.
"Retail is the most defensive asset class across our coverage. For exposure to resilient domestic malls, strong earnings growth and stable yield, we like FCT & CMT. In contrast, we would avoid retail developer CMA where higher costs from new mall openings is eroding profitability resulting in weak 2012 earnings growth," it added.
"Be selective within the REITs: S-REITs are better positioned to weather a crisis vs GFC given more conservative asset values, stronger balance sheets & lower refinancing risks. Despite attractive yields of 7.5%, we would stick to defensive names with healthy earnings growth," it said further.

stalingrad

12-01-12, 08:58

I can bet you that will never happen!!!!!

I mean honestly.... put your hands to your heart... does that even sound logical????? LV bag same price as Furla / Coach bag?????

CCR is still 50% or more more expensive than OCR. the gap will narrow to 20-30% in the long run. That is why I made that prediction. yes, I believe in what I said. I am putting my palm on my heart.

Douk

12-01-12, 09:26

I understood that for 99LH plot, once acquired have to launch and sell within 5 years. How about for FH enbloced plot? Is there a window period to launch and sell?
This applies to all enbloc land, FH and LH.

teddybear

12-01-12, 10:41

Based on what you said, why not you go buy New Jersey instead? Since it is near New York, soon NJ will be about 20-30% gap in the long run from the current several times difference in price. You sure will make better profits than in Singapore! Don't have to wait time here and earn not even 100% gain vs several hundred % gain over there! :p

Not that I suggest a ulu place to you, but I know many Americans who work in NY but can't afford core NY properties live in NJ and communicate everyday to NY to work. Some may be like you, waiting for NJ price to close the gap for >100 years now! :eek:

CCR is still 50% or more more expensive than OCR. the gap will narrow to 20-30% in the long run. That is why I made that prediction. yes, I believe in what I said. I am putting my palm on my heart.

stalingrad

12-01-12, 10:51

Based on what you said, why not you go buy New Jersey instead? Since it is near New York, soon NJ will be about 20-30% gap in the long run from the current several times difference in price. You sure will make better profits than in Singapore! Don't have to wait time here and earn not even 100% gain vs several hundred % gain over there! :p

Not that I suggest a ulu place to you, but I know many Americans who work in NY but can't afford core NY properties live in NJ and communicate everyday to NY to work. Some may be like you, waiting for NJ price to close the gap for >100 years now! :eek:

living in Manhattan and NJ are as different as day and night. Living in OCR and CCR are pretty much the same, the same shopping, and the same schools. what is there to distinguish the living experiences? none.

peterng8

12-01-12, 10:52

switch to DBSS new launch at hougang

:p but not i say one , just cut and paste the full version ...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Less than twice as many applications as units were seen in the latest DBSS project in Hougang, as applications for units closed yesterday.

The 680-unit Parkland Residences (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/hdb-for-sale-dbss-parkland-residences-8529545), which features three- to five-room units, had received 956 applications as of yesterday evening.

The response was a little weaker than expected, said Lee Sze Teck, Senior Manager of Research and Consultancy at Dennis Wee Realty.

“This could be because there's a lot of uncertainty in the housing market. Rather than committing quickly, people seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach,” he said. Potential buyers may still crowd showflats, although they may not apply straight away.

According to experts, some prospective buyers expect the property cooling measures (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2011/12/31989/new-cooling-measures-may-be-scrapped-if-economy-wo) to reduce prices, as the economic slowdown has hurt buying sentiment.

mantrix

12-01-12, 10:57

living in Manhattan and NJ are as different as day and night. Living in OCR and CCR are pretty much the same, the same shopping, and the same schools. what is there to distinguish the living experiences? none.

if one wants to compare NJ and NY, a fairer analogy is Johor and SG, not OCR and CCR.

teddybear

12-01-12, 11:38

Why? Go from NJ to NY need to clear custom is it? Otherwise how to compare to Johor and SG? :doh:

if one wants to compare NJ and NY, a fairer analogy is Johor and SG, not OCR and CCR.

teddybear

12-01-12, 11:42

Try telling that to Londoners living in Zone 4 that soon their Zone4 property prices will close gap to only 20-30% that of Zone 1 vs >6x now! These people will be damned happy with you if you can make it happen. They had been waiting for centuries and it still didn't happened! :tongue3:
And the whole London is about the size of Singapore, so good comparison. :D

living in Manhattan and NJ are as different as day and night. Living in OCR and CCR are pretty much the same, the same shopping, and the same schools. what is there to distinguish the living experiences? none.

Jonathan0503

12-01-12, 12:14

CCR is still 50% or more more expensive than OCR. the gap will narrow to 20-30% in the long run. That is why I made that prediction. yes, I believe in what I said. I am putting my palm on my heart.

How many years would your long run be?

Based on current condition (infrastructure, amenities, convenience, etc), if a brand new condo in orchard is only 20% more expensive then a brand new condo of equal size in Sembawang, will anyone buy the condo in Sembawang?

chengerh

12-01-12, 13:04

How many years would your long run be?

Based on current condition (infrastructure, amenities, convenience, etc), if a brand new condo in orchard is only 20% more expensive then a brand new condo of equal size in Sembawang, will anyone buy the condo in Sembawang?

I guess when people are wealthier they tend compare/hao lian down to even the very trivial details. If not all those 'branded" stuff would have already close shop. Having a "branded" home address is the same... its not just pure technically a 5 mins more to move from point A to B.

teddybear

12-01-12, 14:20

1. Many of these "branded" stuff are not just "branded" for nothing. they are "branded" because of quality!
You try buying some stainless steel water shower from neighbourhood hardware shop and you can start seeing water spots and rusts within 6 months! But if you install Hansgrohe/AXOR etc they will still be shiny as ever even after 10 years! Many people just don't understand until they experience it! (but they may never experience it and keep complaining why quality so poor? Branded ones also like that one lah! :banghead:).

2. Similar to (1), much has been said about "branded" home address is not just about being "branded", I won't repeat here. Again, Many people just don't understand until they experience it! However, they probably have no chance to experience it in their current life time, hence all the complains and talks about these "branded" address are useless lah! :p

I guess when people are wealthier they tend compare/hao lian down to even the very trivial details. If not all those 'branded" stuff would have already close shop. Having a "branded" home address is the same... its not just pure technically a 5 mins more to move from point A to B.

stalingrad

12-01-12, 14:51

Try telling that to Londoners living in Zone 4 that soon their Zone4 property prices will close gap to only 20-30% that of Zone 1 vs >6x now! These people will be damned happy with you if you can make it happen. They had been waiting for centuries and it still didn't happened! :tongue3:
And the whole London is about the size of Singapore, so good comparison. :D

teddy, I heard that argument from you four years ago, and you have been wrong both times. since you mouthed that argument, CCR prices have not moved much, while OCR prices have doubled. so, let's not argue. Let's let facts speak for themselves.

DaytonaSS

12-01-12, 16:56

Prime CCR orchard is 3x of OCR price (new to new). M I of wrg perception ?

CCR

12-01-12, 17:09

Rosy

12-01-12, 17:59

amk

12-01-12, 19:05

teddy, I heard that argument from you four years ago, and you have been wrong both times. since you mouthed that argument, CCR prices have not moved much, while OCR prices have doubled. so, let's not argue. Let's let facts speak for themselves.

Stalingrad, your carabelle latest px is 1043psf, and your favorite duchess residence last px is 1919psf ;) doesn't look like moving to your liking ;)

teddybear

12-01-12, 19:10

Wow! That means OCR even worse! Why got people pay record high OCR price of >$1200 psf when in same vicinity they can get $6xx psf?

not logical to use record high OCR psf to make CCR look cheap. there are 6xxpsf OCR condo avail

land118

12-01-12, 19:17

Parvis at Holland Hill 1700+ psf..... Bedok residence 1350 psf...
Luxurie Sengkang 1100psf....

D'leedon 1600psf....

I think singaporean never explore enough....
They only look for condo near where they are staying now...

If CCR properties build those 900 sqft - 3 bedrooms at 1700 psf sure people cheong...its only 1.5m
Good examples, there are good value for some CCR now..., but most masses who wants to upgrade to private, like what u say just look at places where they are staying or familiar with, which most of the time is OCR areas. District 10 Parvis u mention is only 350psf more than Bedok R, and FH vs LH!

amk

12-01-12, 19:20

not logical to use record high OCR psf to make CCR look cheap. there are 6xxpsf OCR condo avail

Actually the px differential on the quantum is still there. A decent sized CCR unit is usually at least 2 to 3m. OCR units are still hovering around 1m.

Bedok u have 1350psf LH99. Do you know you can find real prime LH99 in orchard not far from taka at around 1390psf as recent as nov 11 ? And that is a much better built project. what's the catch ? The minimum px of this one is 4.5m. There is no 900 sqft 3bds here.

Look this recent OCR psf boom only benefited developers. Average mass market buyers didn't get a lot richer really. As long as it's called a condo, within 1m, people will bite, never mind the tiny rooms. Really a pity. You think ppl buying branded are howlian ? How about buying a 900sqft 3bd condo to stay just to say " I live in condo" , isn't that more howlian ?

teddybear

12-01-12, 19:42

900 sqft can squeeze in 3 bedrooms+kitchen+living especially after deducting 10% for balcony and another 10% for air-con ledge? (That makes available usable space about 720 sqft!). Built for dwarfs is it? :beats-me-man:

These people just want to be seen living in condo regardless of the size as long as the condo is "affordable" in absolute quantum? :scared-1:

Actually the px differential on the quantum is still there. A decent sized CCR unit is usually at least 2 to 3m. OCR units are still hovering around 1m.

Bedok u have 1350psf LH99. Do you know you can find real prime LH99 in orchard not far from taka at around 1390psf as recent as nov 11 ? And that is a much better built project. what's the catch ? The minimum px of this one is 4.5m. There is no 900 sqft 3bds here.

Look this recent OCR psf boom only benefited developers. Average mass market buyers didn't get a lot richer really. As long as it's called a condo, within 1m, people will bite, never mind the tiny rooms. Really a pity. You think ppl buying branded are howlian ? How about buying a 900sqft 3bd condo to stay just to say " I live in condo" , isn't that more howlian ?

Rosy

12-01-12, 19:51

Wow! That means OCR even worse! Why got people pay record high OCR price of >$1200 psf when in same vicinity they can get $6xx psf?
Which project are you refering to?

teddybear

12-01-12, 20:39

Which project you referring to? :confused:

Which project are you refering to?

CCR

12-01-12, 23:21

not logical to use record high OCR psf to make CCR look cheap. there are 6xxpsf OCR condo avail

I am comparing new condo in OCR against new condo in CCR.... i can't find brand new OCR property at 600+psf... now DBSS also higher than this liao...

If want to compare old property... even better...
Pandan valley freehold lees than 1kpsf....

Old Balmoral vicinity condo only 1500psf.... and its FH... why dont consider them? strange.....

Rosy

12-01-12, 23:59

I am comparing new condo in OCR against new condo in CCR.... i can't find brand new OCR property at 600+psf... now DBSS also higher than this liao...

If want to compare old property... even better...
Pandan valley freehold lees than 1kpsf....

Old Balmoral vicinity condo only 1500psf.... and its FH... why dont consider them? strange.....
Only agents use record high psf to sell cheaper projects.

As discerning buyers and investors, we use the cheapest in the vicinity to make comparison

peterng8

13-01-12, 09:45

Another one from established insitution..so far a few of them (OCBC etc etc) open their mouths already which i have posted for sharing and for info only... not i say one hor :p Can they be trusted?:p

Investors unanimously bearish on Singapore property: CIMB
(13 Jan 2012)
Bleak market outlook adopted as steep price declines hit the residential sector.
The office sector will also feel the price pinch as financial firms downsize in 2012. Singapore developers with China exposures are even doubly at risk.
As a result, investors are fleeing to defensive hideouts like S-REITs. What other stocks are gaining traction in this declining property market?
Here's more from CIMB:
Investors generally preferred S-REITs to developers with the retail and industrial segments being the favoured hideouts. Stocks drawing the most interest were GLP and CDLHT – Outperforms. Stock ideas which met the most resistance were AREIT and CMA. Maintain Underweight.
Bearish throughout. Investors’ views on the SIN residential market were unanimously bearish. Many are looking for physical prices to decline this year. Much of the focus was on the impact of the Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty (ABSD), with many surprised at the extent to which foreigners account for current take-up. Many were interested to know what could trigger the price decline. We believe a softening secondary (sales and rental) market could lead this cycle. Investors also appeared less sanguine on the office sector, highlighting rising job cuts in the financial sector. While the FSTRE has underperformed the broader market by 10% since Jan 11, investors appeared unconvinced on trades.
China worries. Some believed that SIN developers with meaningful exposure to China are unlikely to do well this year as price cuts are only just beginning. Our channel checks with several China developers corroborate this; cash flows are now their top priority. While well-capitalised, we believe SIN developers in China will bear the derivative brunt of declining prices and volumes. Investors agreed that China could pose another source of RNAV (and earnings) downgrades.
Feedback on stock ideas. Our key calls of GLP and CDLHT received the most positive feedback with some resistance to our views on AREIT (O) and CMA (U). Most had no issues with our calls on CityDev (U), CapLand (N) and KepLand (U).

peterng8

13-01-12, 10:06

hopeful

13-01-12, 10:12

action speaks louder than words.

since you/the article mention OCBC, CIMB, use them as reference:
1) Is it as easy as before to get loan from OCBC/CIMB?
2) valuation from OCBC/CIMB high as before?
3) is loan packages from OCBC/CIMB are attractive as before?

teddybear

13-01-12, 10:15

use the cheapest which nobody want (which buyers don't want as well) to bargain to buy other good property cheap cheap? Buyers' tactic! :scared-3:

Only agents use record high psf to sell cheaper projects.

As discerning buyers and investors, we use the cheapest in the vicinity to make comparison

peterng8

13-01-12, 10:19

not only these two...there are others UOB kayhian etc..check the threads...I am sharing info only and open for all the experts here to debate and share further view..dont flame me...OR better i dont post ...:o

teddybear

13-01-12, 10:19

My prediction: HDB flats prices will go no where and even down in forseenable future, so much so for store of value! No appreciation potential who wants when there are so much supply? :scared-3:
If I have HDB flat, I sure sell while sentiment is so good! They ain't see those big big supply coming to market yet! :scared-2:

Not i say one har...:o from colliers intl, can trust them or not ?

New year, new house? Don’t buy just yet

The influx of new housing supply at the time of global economic woes might drive home prices down this year.
Colliers International said in a statement that home buyers are “expected to hold a cautious stance and hold out for possible price declines” with the foreseen cooling of the housing market due to Singapore’s easing of its GDP projection for 2012 from 4-5% to between 1 and 3%.
The property adviser said “another catalyst” for price decline would be the moderation in the developers’ level of participation given the abundant incoming supply. A drop in land bid prices are also likely, the firm said.
Colliers International noted, however, that the imposition of the additional buyer’s stamp duty effective from 8 December 2011 could shave off some level of buying demand.
The high-end/luxury and mid-tier markets are expected to be worse hit as foreign buyers, which will be affected by the ABSD, form a major demand base in these segments.
Prices of the higher-end /luxury segment could correct by up to 15% in 2012, Colliers International said.
In the mass-market segment, the grim market outlook and job prospects could stall buying decisions, the property adviser said.
Prices for the segment could correct by up to 10% as prices are likely to be affected by the arrival of an ample supply of mass-market homes.

peterng8

13-01-12, 12:01

Leeds

13-01-12, 13:20

Singapore's property market has a direct bearing with that of Hong Kong and historically lack the HK's market by a few quarters. BT reported the following failed land tender today in Hong Kong. Is this coming our way soon? Looks likely!!!!

January 13, 2012, 2.07 pm (Singapore time)
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
HK developer caution leads to failed land tender

HONG KONG - The failed sale of a development site in Hong Kong's New Territories is a further indication of caution among Hong Kong developers as home prices in the city soften, market watchers say.
'Developers are more cautious on the property market outlook for the next two to three years,' said Patrick Wong, Hong Kong property analyst at Samsung Securities.
On Thursday, MTR Corp said the offers for its site t the Bayside in Tsuen Wan had been refused.
A spokesman said on Friday that it planned to tender the project again at a later date, although the company had yet to decide when.
Wong said with property prices falling in the city, developers were more picky about sites, favouring central areas on Hong Kong Island and in Kowloon, rather than New Territories neighbourhoods such as Tsuen Wan.
The Hong Kong government has committed to delivering land for 20,000 flats per year, although it said in December that it would increase the amount of land it sells this fiscal year, ending in March, after hitting its target early.
According to a South China Morning Post report on Friday, the MTR tender drew bids from Hong Kong's biggest developers, Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd and Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd, as well as Sino Land Co Ltd and a consortium of New World Development Co Ltd, Nan Fung Development and Wheelock Properties. MTR did not disclose the companies bidding for the project.
Chinachem Group won a separate, smaller tender in Tsuen Wan, next to its headquarters. It said it had bid conservatively on the project, which it won for US$335 million.
Also on Thursday, the Lands Department said Fortune Precision, a subsidiary of Wheelock Properties, the property arm of Wheelock & Co Ltd, won the tender for a residential site in Tseung Kwan O for HK$1.86 billion.
Analysts noted that bids for all three sites were low.
Brokerages have so far born the brunt of the slowdown rather than developers. Shares in Hong Kong property brokerage Midland Holdings Ltd were down 6.6 per cent on Friday morning, after the company warned on Thursday that would post a loss for the second half of last year.
Shares in MTR Corp were up 0.2 per cent on Friday morning, despite the company withdrawing the Bayside tender. The Hang Seng Index was flat. -- REUTERS

peterng8

13-01-12, 13:36

Foreign property developer is more bullish as compared to local?:o
are foreign developers such as from china are making singkies paying more? are singkies again take the bite?:o any control by game master (our garmen) to contain the foreign developers or let them conitnue to buy air first?:o if only singkies dont bite:p

What the Jalan Lempeng tender bid means for unit prices

(13 Jan 2012)

Units for the site are estimated to have a breakeven cost of $950-$980 psf so expect to pay more.

Colliers International made the ballpark estimate after the bids for Jalan Lempeng topped at $408 million or $554.35 psf ppr from Malaysian developer IOI Properties Berhad.
This winning bid for the private non-landed residential site was 13% and 22.2% higher than the second- and third-highest bids.
"The price range reflects the keen interest of IOI Properties Berhad on the site amid continued cautiousness among other developers," said Colliers International in its bid result comments.
"The interest stems from the site’s location, which is also a stone’s throw away from the Clementi MRT Station, bus interchange and tertiary educational institutions (e.g. National University of Singapore, the upcoming School of Science & Technology Singapore and Singapore Polytechnic)," it added.

CCR

13-01-12, 14:00

Only agents use record high psf to sell cheaper projects.

As discerning buyers and investors, we use the cheapest in the vicinity to make comparison

Where can find new OCR properties at 600+ psf?

amk

13-01-12, 15:35

...the following failed land tender today in Hong Kong.

aiyo this is not "failed" tender. the 4 biggest developers purposely put in low bids, HK gov refused to sell , very much the same case as our Paya Lebar case :rolleyes:

CCR

13-01-12, 16:06

aiyo this is not "failed" tender. the 4 biggest developers purposely put in low bids, HK gov refused to sell , very much the same case as our Paya Lebar case :rolleyes:

Haha you are absolutely right....

chengerh

13-01-12, 16:10

Not i say one har...:o from colliers intl, can trust them or not ?

New year, new house? Don’t buy just yet

The influx of new housing supply at the time of global economic woes might drive home prices down this year.
Colliers International said in a statement that home buyers are “expected to hold a cautious stance and hold out for possible price declines” with the foreseen cooling of the housing market due to Singapore’s easing of its GDP projection for 2012 from 4-5% to between 1 and 3%.
The property adviser said “another catalyst” for price decline would be the moderation in the developers’ level of participation given the abundant incoming supply. A drop in land bid prices are also likely, the firm said.
Colliers International noted, however, that the imposition of the additional buyer’s stamp duty effective from 8 December 2011 could shave off some level of buying demand.
The high-end/luxury and mid-tier markets are expected to be worse hit as foreign buyers, which will be affected by the ABSD, form a major demand base in these segments.
Prices of the higher-end /luxury segment could correct by up to 15% in 2012, Colliers International said.
In the mass-market segment, the grim market outlook and job prospects could stall buying decisions, the property adviser said.
Prices for the segment could correct by up to 10% as prices are likely to be affected by the arrival of an ample supply of mass-market homes.

For myself if i have the money i rather pay more to buy something of my preference i.e. FH near MRT etc... so for me whether they release more supply doesnt really matter. Its the profile of the projects that matters. In that sense if no one is buying due to crappy launch does that mean that the price will come down coz alot of unsold? Of course basic supply demand still applies but its not just looking at pure numbers especially for private properties.

The question is also what are the profile of the buyers out there today? Do they have no place to stay or paying high rental need to get one asap or mostly just waiting to pick one they like?

azeoprop

13-01-12, 16:21

aiyo this is not "failed" tender. the 4 biggest developers purposely put in low bids, HK gov refused to sell , very much the same case as our Paya Lebar case :rolleyes:

Actually if all developers here bid $1 for all future land sales then govt refuse to sell = auto restrict supply? Then existing projects can sell high high?

:D

HP65

13-01-12, 18:56

Actually if all developers here bid $1 for all future land sales then govt refuse to sell = auto restrict supply? Then existing projects can sell high high?

:D

Then I suggest HDB establish a private ppty division to build condos. Sell cheap2, people sure happy. If developer here dare to challenge govt, I'm sure kbw will whack back.

focus

13-01-12, 22:58

Actually if all developers here bid $1 for all future land sales then govt refuse to sell = auto restrict supply? Then existing projects can sell high high?

:D

You are assuming there is only those few local players with landbank around.
Unfortunately, there are countless smaller property developers as well as foreign developers who are keen to get into the market. So no.. your plan will not work.

Rosy

13-01-12, 23:13

Where can find new OCR properties at 600+ psf?
You are biting on the figures which is not the main point i was driving at.

Rosy

13-01-12, 23:17

use the cheapest which nobody want (which buyers don't want as well) to bargain to buy other good property cheap cheap? Buyers' tactic! :scared-3:
Buyers have to depend on themselves to source for good reasonable deals whereas sellers just need to set a high price and leave the job to the agents.

Rosy

13-01-12, 23:20

Then I suggest HDB establish a private ppty division to build condos. Sell cheap2, people sure happy. If developer here dare to challenge govt, I'm sure kbw will whack back.
This will change the whole SG property landscape. Pte property will become high class HDBs

CCR

13-01-12, 23:50

You are biting on the figures which is not the main point i was driving at.

And the main point is? Sorry i didnt catch it.... can you elaborate?

Rosy

14-01-12, 00:16

And the main point is? Sorry i didnt catch it.... can you elaborate?
Do not use record high psf in other projects.
always use the cheaper projects in the vicinity to compare

CCR

14-01-12, 00:26

Do not use record high psf in other projects.
always use the cheaper projects in the vicinity to compare

ok ok.... so 99 years projects in Sengkang about 950+ and holland road condo FH at 1650 psf+ ok?

LH Nin Residences at Potong Pasir 1200+ psf...

Rosy

14-01-12, 00:43

ok ok.... so 99 years projects in Sengkang about 950+ and holland road condo FH at 1650 psf+ ok?

LH Nin Residences at Potong Pasir 1200+ psf...
It is not my interest with regards to the figures. Originally, i just wanted to comment that your reasoning was not logical in my opinion

CCR

14-01-12, 08:53

:confused: which part of it is not logical? ok, lets not debate anymore and let the matter rest...

peterng8

16-01-12, 13:25

another write out ..not i say one hor:p pls read in conjunction with the previous posts put up in this threads and draw your own conclusion...:o

Private home sales plummet 63% in December

(published on 16 jan 2012)

The Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty has nearly paralyzed sales activity in the market.
After a remarkable performance in November, private home sales in December plummeted M-on-M, with a total of 632 private homes transacted compared to 1,701 transactions (excluding Executive Condominiums) in the previous month, according to PropNex Realty's report. This was a decrease of 1,069 units or a plunge of 63% M-on-M. The Outside Central Region was the most buoyant, contributing 64.7% of all units sold.
“The slowed sales activity is mainly attributed to the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty implemented on December 8, the December festive holidays as well as the uncertain economic outlook for 2012. This result was as predicted when the policy was implemented - transaction volume dived by 57% in the core central region. This latest round of cooling measure had been prohibitive for potential foreign investors and the impact is evident in the record lowest transaction volume in the Core Central Region in 2011," says Ms Carolyn Goh, Corporate Communications Manager of PropNex Realty.
"Cautious sentiments prevails in December, with potential private homebuyers preferring to keep their options open before committing to any purchase in waiting for price corrections. Home owners or investors are now holding out with their property portfolio and watching the market trends while make plans to rent out their property as an alternative,” she added.
The signs of lower land bid prices may indicate that prices will be adjusting to the market demands in the private residential market in the coming months of the year. Also, some home buyers might be delaying their purchase decision in anticipation of the wave of new launches expected after Chinese New Year.
In December, the top selling projects were—Archipelgo at Bedok Reservoir Road, which sold 103 units with median prices of $1,118psf, The Nautical at Sembawang Road sold 84 units at a median price of $882psf and The Palette at Pasir Ris sold 61 units at $901psf, while Cardiff Residences sold 30 units at $1,328psf.
Private sales volume in December had seen a 69.2% nosedive in OCR M-on-M, and the record lowest private sales volume was in the Core Central Region mainly consisting of foreign buyers. “Overall, sales activities have been strong in 2011 which is evident in the top selling
32 projects mainly in the OCR, 9 projects were from RCR while others were Executive Condominiums. This is 11.5% increase in transaction volume with a total of 16,306 units sold, compared with 2010. 2011 had seen more HDB upgraders fulfilling their aspiration of owner private property homes as the bulk of activity is in the OCR mass market condominiums. It will be interesting to see the results of private property sales from first quarter of 2012 onwards, especially after the ABSD cooling measures so as to get a clearer picture of where the market is heading.
Potential buyers (Singaporeans and foreigners) are now adopting a wait and see attitude, analysing the impact of this latest cooling measure and its correction before entering the market again. However, given the uncertainty in stock markets and with interest rates remaining low, in the long term, private property in Singapore will continue to attract investors, both local and foreign,” remarked Carolyn Goh

latour

16-01-12, 14:24

Interesting statements, for ponder:-

"...Potential buyers (Singaporeans and foreigners) are now adopting a wait and see attitude, analysing the impact of this latest cooling measure and its correction before entering the market again."
... how long will be the waiting time? 3, 6, 9months or 1 to 2 years?

"However, given the uncertainty in stock markets and with interest rates remaining low, in the long term, private property in Singapore will continue to attract investors, both local and foreign,” remarked Carolyn Goh"
... speculators and short-term investors are all outst, property must be for longer term now (as it always should have been).

peterng8

16-01-12, 20:44

richie$$$

17-01-12, 21:32

Outlook bad. Countries downgraded
If I hv $$ I still buy now knowing mkt will go down.

peterng8

18-01-12, 11:37

another one this time is from DBS vickers , wao bo gong(i nvr say),pls read in conjunction with other reports POSTED here PREviously in this thread.( colliers,DMG, BAML etc and etc ...) and draw your own conclusion..:o

Primary home crash seen in 2012

(18 jan 2012)

Only 12,000 primary homes is expected to be sold this year far below the usual 16,000 levels.
Already, 2011 saw primary homes sales dip to 16,025 units from 16,357 sales in 2010, according to a DBS Vickers research report.
The property market has soured enough to dampen sales even further in 2012 as foreigners balk at more restrictive property measures like the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty, and locals hold off on purchases until prices plummet to bargain levels.
Here's more from DBS Vickers:
Weighed down by latest policy move. As expected, primary home sales in December was sharply lower at 670 units. Excluding ECs, sales dropped by 63% m-o-m to 632 units, the lowest since 1Q10. This is the result of buyers taking a wait and see attitude after the imposition of Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) announced on 8 Dec while the year end holiday season also meant a slower pace of launches by developers. A total of 937 units were offered, half of that in Nov, translating to a take up rate of just 67%. That said, ASPs remained firm with prices in the OCR and CCR seeing flat or moderate growth. For the year, primary sales came in at 16,025 units, a shade below 2010’s 16,357 units.
Market activity to fizzle out after recent policy measures. Going into 2012, we expect overall primary transaction volume to taper down to 11,000-12,000 units, as the latest policy restrictions are likely to affect investment and foreigner demand. Owner occupier buyers are likely to hold back in anticipation of a dip in prices. Recent land tenders have also moderated, which reflect developers’ cautious outlook. We expect home prices to retrace by 5% this year --muted impact due to the extended low
interest rate environment.

peterng8

18-01-12, 11:39

china ....

Strong brake on Chinese property investment: OCBC

But will it reach abysmal single-digit growth in 2012?
Not really, if China pulls off its huge public housing pipelines without a hitch, but the choke on property investment will be substantial.
Government-enacted cooling measures and a widespread developer cash crunch have already started to diminish investment in late 2011. OCBC expects a worsening effect this year.
What else is in store for the China property market and economy as a whole?
Here are snippets from an OCBC viewpoint:
Fixed investment grew 23.8% yoy in 2011, down slightly from the 24.5% yoy in January to November. Real estate investment slowed further to 27.9% yoy in 2011, down from the 29.9% growth pace in the first eleven months.
The decline in property investment was a result of tightening measures and the tight liquidity faced by developers; however the figure was far from concerns on China’s hard landing. We expect property investment to moderate further this year. Nevertheless it is quite unlikely for property investment growth to fall back to single digit growth given the support from China’s massive public housing projects.
External demand may remain the drag on China’s growth. External demand was the main drag on China’s growth in 2011 with net export weighing GDP growth down by about 0.55% points.
External demand is likely to remain weak this year amid rising global economic uncertainty. We expect annual export growth to slow from 20.9% yoy in 2011 to about 10-15% in 2012, while import growth may remain resilient around 15-20% in 2012. This may lead a further narrowing of the trade surplus.
Overall, we are still comfortable with our 8.5% call for China’s growth this year as China’s resilient domestic demand, coupled with ongoing public housing projects and increasing fiscal support to agriculture industry, is likely to provide a buffer to any negative shocks from weak global demand given China’s local government debt problem is still manageable.

peterng8

19-01-12, 09:03

From Colliers...read with an open mind:o

From luxury to mass market: All home property will fall

(19 Jan 2011)

No segment will be spared in the approaching 2012 demand drought, says Colliers.
After December 2011 saw a shocking 63% decline in private residential homes, the property brokerage predicts a year of hurt for property across the price spectrum.
High-end to mid-tier segments will see a trickle of foreign buyers, many of which may have been repelled by the ABSD measure, while mass-market segment suffers from oversupply.
"Although the low interest rate environment could continue to support home buying in 2012, mounting downside risks are expected to weigh down demand for homes and weaken prices," said Colliers International in a release.
"The slowing global and domestic economies are likely to affect employment prospects and salary growth and this is expected to ruffle homebuyers’ confidence and dampen demand. Additionally, the imposition of the ABSD will shave off some level of buying demand, particularly from foreigners. All these could drag down demand further as prospective purchasers continue to adopt a cautious stance and hold out for possible price declines. Thus, take-up for new homes in 2012 could potentially drop to between 9,000 and 11,000 units from 2011’s 16,027 units," it said.
"The high-end/luxury and mid tier markets which are already slow in sales activity are expected to be harder hit. This is in view that foreign buyers currently form a major demand base of buyers for private home sales in these segments and they are likely to be deterred by the imposition of the ABSD to some extent," Colliers added.
"In the mass-market segment, although there is demand from genuine and first-time buyers, the grim market outlook and job prospects as well as the abundant land supply in the pipeline from the 1H 2012 Government Land Sales programme for residential property development could stall buying decisions," it said further.

peterng8

19-01-12, 12:37

More and more LAnd sales.....spoilt for choices:o

Tender alert: Government releases two residential sites

The sites at Hillview Avenue and Upper Serangoon View/Upper Serangoon Road are estimated to yield 805 housing units.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority, which launched the sites with the Housing Development Board, said:
The two land parcels are launched for sale under the Confirmed List of the 1st half 2012 (1H2012) Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme. Together, these sites will yield about 805 units, as part of the total 7,000 residential units to be launched under the GLS Programme for 1st half 2012.
Land Parcel at Hillview Avenue
The land parcel, with a site area of about 1.26 ha, is located within an established residential estate in the west region. The site can potentially yield about 370 private housing units and is near the future Cashew and Hillview MRT Stations.
Land Parcel at Upper Serangoon View/Upper Serangoon Road
The land parcel, with a site area of about 1.24 ha, is located in the north-east region and is in close proximity to Hougang MRT Station and Bus Interchange. Earmarked for an executive condominium development, the site can potentially yield about 435 units and is easily accessible via nearby TPE, KPE and CTE.
Tender for the residential sites at Hillview Avenue and Upper Serangoon View/Upper Serangoon Road will close at 12 noon on 6 March 2012 and 1 March 2012 respectively.

CCR

19-01-12, 13:32

12000 units a year sales is good....

16k a year home sales is too hot...

5% drop is not bad for a breather in the property market...

Rent out your property for one year, should be able to cover the drop in property prices...

richie$$$

19-01-12, 21:26

Office rent dropped
Why? Biz closing down?

peterng8

27-01-12, 09:59

Almost 40,000 private residential units remained unsold in Q4

(27 Jan 2012)

The pipeline supply of 77,089 units was the highest ever recorded since 1999.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority, releasing the real estate statistics for 4th Quarter 2011, said:
As at the end of 4th Quarter 2011, there was a total supply of 77,089 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline, higher than the 76,255 units in 3rd Quarter 2011. The pipeline supply of 77,089 units was the highest ever recorded since such data was first available in 1999.
Of the supply in the pipeline, 39,184 units remained unsold as at 4th Quarter 2011. The unsold units comprised 10,741 units in CCR, 8,350 units in RCR and 20,093 units in OCR

peterng8

27-01-12, 10:06

Housing alert: Rate of price increase continues to moderate

(27 Jan 2012)

For 2011, prices of private residential properties increased by 5.9%, significantly lower than the 17.6% increase in 2010.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority, releasing the real estate statistics for 4th Quarter 2011, said:
The rate of price increase has continued to moderate for nine consecutive quarters. Prices of private residential properties increased by 0.2% in 4th Quarter 2011, lower than the 1.3% increase in the previous quarter and is the smallest increase since 3rd Quarter 2009.
For the year 2011 as a whole, prices of private residential properties increased by 5.9%, significantly lower than the 17.6% increase in 2010. All property segments experienced a slower rate of price increases compared to the previous quarter and previous year.
Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region (CCR) increased 0.5% in 4th Quarter 2011, compared with the 0.7% increase in the previous quarter. For Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR), prices increased by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively in 4th Quarter 2011, lower than the corresponding increases of 1.2% and 2.1% in the previous quarter.
For the year 2011 as a whole, prices of non-landed properties increased by 4.0% in CCR, 4.5% in RCR and 7.7% in OCR, compared with 14.2%, 17.6% and 15.0% respectively in 2010.
Similarly, rentals of private residential properties registered a lower rate of increase compared to the previous quarter and year. Rentals increased by 0.4% in 4th Quarter 2011, less than the 0.8% increase in the previous quarter.
For the year 2011 as a whole, rentals of private residential properties increased by 3.8%, lower than the 17.9% increase in 2010.

peterng8

27-01-12, 10:09

Read with an open mind...

Home sales volume doomed to fall

(27 Jan 2012)

Primary market sales are expected to be reduced to 11,000 units per annum for this year and the next.
King Eng’s Wilson Liew reported:
Few signs of demand letting up. Merely a month after the introduction of the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), anecdotal evidence suggests that the sense of caution experienced following the implementation was just temporary as both homebuyers and property developers appear to be resuming their activities.
In our opinion, such a phenomenon may not last and we remain neutral on the Singapore-based developers, preferring the diversified property plays instead.
Developers still vying for land. From the three residential Government Land Sales tenders that closed after the introduction of the ABSD, it appears that developers are still looking to acquire well-located sites.
While the Mt. Vernon Road tender suggests that developers are pricing in a potential drop in property prices, the two most recent tenders for the sites at Clementi Ave 6 and Simon Road still attracted healthy interest of 8 and 12 bids respectively.
We also noted that foreign developers continue to be actively bidding for land, perhaps less daunted by the medium-term uncertainty.
Emboldened by recent launches. Recent launches of mass market projects and Executive Condominiums (ECs) continue to see healthy demand despite growing concerns over the economy. For example, Far East Organization’s The Hillier at Hillview (~$1,200 psf) and Watertown at Punggol Central (~$1,100 psf) have both attracted strong demand.
In the near-term, demand for attractive suburban projects may continue to be supported by the benign interest rate environment and our economists are not expecting interest rates to hike up markedly before 2H13. This may have encouraged some developers to continue to acquire sites to meet upgraders’ demand.
Risky bet against time. The developers with mass market projects on their hands may be facing a race against time to launch their recently acquired projects.
We estimate that from the sites that have been sold under the GLS which have yet to be launched, the potential supply that may come onto the market over the next 12 months stands at 12,248 condominium units and 2,495 EC units, and counting. Developers could find it harder to find suitable windows of opportunity to launch projects.
ASPs and sales volume set to fall. Faced with a more daunting income/employment outlook due to economic concerns and ample housing options, we believe that upgraders will inadvertently adopt greater caution when reality bites, potentially by mid-2012. That may then lead to the precipitation of mass market prices of up to 20% by end-2013. We also expect primary market sales to be reduced to 11,000 units p.a. for 2012 and 2013.

bigapplefan

27-01-12, 10:12

ABSD: Clarifications and Initial Impact (http://forums.condosingapore.com/blog/tag/absd-clarifications-and-initial-impact)

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By Mr Propwise (http://forums.condosingapore.com/blog/contributor/13)Jan 26, 2012
Mr. Propwise is the founder of the Singapore property blog www.propwise.sg (http://www.propwise.sg), which aims to help people make better real estate...
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It's still early days, but in this article we look at the early impact of the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) on sales in December 2011, and also some clarifications by the tax authorities on the finer details of whom it applies to.

Clearer guidelines on ABSD
With the revision of the e-Tax Guide by the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS), several points of confusion over the ABSD were clarified.

Does ABSD apply on the pre-discount or post-discount price?
As many developers have started to offer cash rebates and vouchers to attract buyers, one question involves the amount of stamp duty that a foreigner has to pay - 10% of the discounted price or of the pre-discount price. The answer to this is that if not all buyers had received the discount and the final price paid is lower than what most other buyers paid, the foreign buyer will have to pay the ABSD based on the pre-discount price.

Will the ABSD be levied on sites with unclear zoning?
On whether the ABSD will be levied on sites with unclear zoning, it was stated that the ABSD will only be levied for sites that are zoned residential in the Master Plan. If the land was rezoned residential when it was not originally so in the Master Plan, the ABSD will have to be paid for the development charge paid for rezoning and remissions will not be applicable. Companies purchasing industrial or commercial buildings (http://www.commercialguru.com.sg/) that sit on a land zoned residential will also have to pay the ABSD.
Questions on the remission of ABSD

On whether remission will be granted, IRAS stated that remission of the ABSD for sites that yield four or less units may be allowed on a case-by-case basis if the developer is developing the residential properties for sale (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/singapore-property-listing/property-for-sale/1) and is a firm "lawfully carrying on the business of housing development."
Previously, only licensed developers developing projects yielding five or more units were allowed remission. Should developers purchase more plots of land to amalgamate with their first and the ABSD was not levied on the first plot purchased, whether remission will be granted on the second plot will be considered on a case-by-case basis.

Other clarifications
The ABSD will also not be levied on development charges since there is no buyer's stamp duty (BSD). Inheritance is no longer considered a means of acquiring property, and the date range for a developer to maintain a majority stake in its subsidiary to qualify for remission of ABSD is also qualified.

Fewer private home sales in Dec 2011
With the introduction of the ABSD in early December 2011, private home sales, excluding Executive Condominiums (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/condo-directory) (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/condo-directory)(ECs), have fallen by 63% to 632 units versus November 2011. Including ECs, private home sales fell by 63.9% from the previous month.

The introduction of the new stamp duty also created some buyer's remorse, as about 100 units (including ECs) were returned to developers, up from 70 in November.

Nonetheless, a record of 18,920 units was sold in 2011, up from 17,344 in 2010. If ECs are excluded from the figure, the total sales for 2011 will be 16,027 units, slightly below the 16,292 units in 2010.

2011 was a record year for home sales, but if December is anything to go by, 2012 will be a much tougher year. The strength of sales in the Year of the Dragon will depend on the economic situation (not looking good at the moment with the lowered guidance given the precarious global situation), the prices set by developers (still unwilling to cut prices aggressively) and the foreign demand (the unknown factor).

peterng8

27-01-12, 10:31

based on the articles by several major institution (all posted in this thread)...what is your view on the followings in general for would be owner/existing owner/seller:

-how much do u trust them based on their data and analysis?
- will there be further upside?
- will u buy now for own stay or investment?
- will the risk be higher to buy now than later?
- will u sell now or continue to hold it for rental?
- will resale continue to be dead meat compared to new launch or EC which pull potential buyers away..
- is SOHO and EC more hot now than other type devpt due to concept and pricing?
etc etc etc....

interesting...:o

bigapplefan

27-01-12, 10:37

peterng8

29-01-12, 13:29

Read for info....:o

Private home market has peaked: Analysts

URA residential priceindex up 0.2% in Q4; pace of increase the weakest since Q3 2009

The rise in private home prices in Singapore slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter last year, with property analysts saying the data showed that the market had peaked as they forecast prices to fall 5 to 10 per cent this year.

While the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) said yesterday its private residential property price index hit a new record high of 206.2 in the fourth quarter, the rise was a mere 0.2 per cent from the previous three months, compared with the third quarter’s 1.3 per cent rise. The pace of increase, marking the weakest showing since the third quarter of 2009, was the same as the URA’s preliminary estimates released on Jan 3.

For last year as a whole, prices of private homes rose 5.9 per cent, significantly lower than the 17.6 per cent increase in 2010, according to the URA.

Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer at property consultancy ERA Realty Network, said the slowdown of the price rise cannot be solely attributed to the additional buyers’ stamp duties (ABSD) of between 3 and 10 per cent, as these were only introduced from Dec 8.
“Unfavourable global market conditions have started to affect market sentiment in the last quarter of 2011,” he said.

He added: “The slowdown in price increase could also indicate high liquidity and cheap housing loans have become less effective in driving market demand as property price increases have outpaced wage increments.”

ERA is of the view that private home prices had peaked in 4Q 2011, saying that the ample supply of uncompleted properties in the pipeline, including an estimated 2,900 executive condominiums that can be yielded from the first half 2012 Government Land Sales programme, as well as global economic uncertainties would likely cause the market to ease in the coming months.

At the end of the fourth quarter, there was a total supply of 77,089 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline, the highest ever recorded. Of these, 39,184 units remained unsold, the URA said.

Property consultancy PropNex said that market cooling measures imposed last year – including the ABSD, the lower loan-to-value ratio cap of 60 per cent to individuals with one or more housing loans, the extended minimum holding period for sellers’ stamp duty (SSD) to four years, and SSD as high as 16 per cent – had encouraged more home buyers to adopt a mid-to-long-term view for their property purchase.

For this year, PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail is forecasting an overall 5 to 8 per cent decline in prices for private homes in the core central region. Mass market condominiums in the outside central region should see a 3 to 5 per cent dip, as new developments in this area are launched at prices that are sensitive to the cooler market sentiment, he said. For the overall private home market, Mr Ismail expects a 5 per cent dip this year.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior manager of Research and Consultancy at property consultancy DWG, said the market could ease around 10 per cent this year, noting that prices “are showing signs of peaking in 4Q 2011, (with) the decreasing rate of appreciation evident across all property types and localities”.

phantom_opera

29-01-12, 14:51

Really useless analyst Watertown already proves price supported by almighty upgraders who suddenly realize 5.5% inflation erodes their savings away and will be the norm for next 10y

bigapplefan

29-01-12, 15:20

Really useless analyst Watertown already proves price supported by almighty upgraders who suddenly realize 5.5% inflation erodes their savings away and will be the norm for next 10y

Without all these analyst, you think developers would give discount?

danntbt

29-01-12, 16:45

Without all these analyst, you think developers would give discount?
...they give discount after jacking up the prices.....

DKSG

29-01-12, 18:05

Without all these analyst, you think developers would give discount?

I think you are mistaken. There is NO DISCOUNT given.

In fact, prices just went up a notch with Watertown.

Last time Punggol, new developments for 800-850 psf.
Now, I think 1,000 is the new 800 ...

Punggol prices just went UP 20% !:eek:

:jaw-dropping:

bigapplefan

29-01-12, 20:29

I think you are mistaken. There is NO DISCOUNT given.

In fact, prices just went up a notch with Watertown.

Last time Punggol, new developments for 800-850 psf.
Now, I think 1,000 is the new 800 ...

Punggol prices just went UP 20% !:eek:

:jaw-dropping:

oh? I didn't monitor the prices before discount, but the way newspapers and their agents said, there were like lots of discounts given.. so I thought there were discounts...

samuelk

29-01-12, 20:33

oh? I didn't monitor the prices before discount, but the way newspapers and their agents said, there were like lots of discounts given.. so I thought there were discounts...

I think its "preceived" discount.

Similar to buying stuff at a mall during a sale. If u are not careful, u are actually helping vendor clear stocks.

kane

29-01-12, 21:21

it's the oldest tactic in the marketing book but it worked. heh.

peterng8

30-01-12, 09:21

Read for info....

Which Singapore region faces wilting property values?

Private home owners in the Core Central region should brace for a 5 to 8% decline in residential prices.
Mass market condominiums located in the peripheral Outside Central areas are also vulnerable to a 3 to 5% dip in values to match the newer developments that have slashed their prices in response to more tepid demand.
These price declines can be blamed on a torrent of property cooling measures introduced to the housing market, according to a projections release from PropNex Realty.
"The latest round of cooling measure which include, the ABSD, a lower Loan-To-Value ratio cap of 60% and an extended minimum holding period for imposition of Sellers’ Stamp Duty (SSD) to four years, with the SSD increased to up to 16%, targeted at speculators and encouraged more home buyers to adopt a mid-to-long term view for their property purchase/investment. The impact is evident in the lowest transaction volume in the Core Central Region (CCR) in 2011," said Propnex Realty.
For 2012, there will be an overall 5–8% decline in prices for private residential properties in CCR, predicts Propnex Realty CEO Mr Mohamed Ismail.
"Mass market condominiums in the Outside Central areas should see a moderation of 3–5% dip, as new developments in this area are launched at prices that are sensitive to the cooler market sentiment," he added.
"With the introduction of more Executive Condominiums in 2012, the mass market private properties should see price stabilization as the ‘sandwich’ class is given more opportunities of owning a private property," he said further.
With increased supply anticipated, an overall price correction of approximately 5% dip in the private property price index will be felt in 2012, Mr Ismail said.

peterng8

30-01-12, 09:39

MIXED devpt(what is it? watertown, hillier, tennery, bedok residences for eg) and EC will be hottest this year..but resale will be dead ..):o

need prediction? as maj. reports already shown their indication ...the questions are can they be trusted ?

made the decision and call yourself as money belongs to you....

another write out for reading pleasure..
Brisk home sales only temporary: DMG

There's no escaping a 20% decline in primary home sales in 2012 despite a Chinese New Year surge.
OSK-DMG observed a healthy take-up for a Watertown project at Punggol and other mixed developments, but attributed this to a property binge driven mainly by horoscope beliefs. The year of the Dragon is supposedly prosperous for home purchases.
But most other properties are reeling from a dampened buyer's market, no thanks to the recent Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty measures.
Here's more from OSK-DMG:
Auspicious Dragon spurs property buying? According to the Chinese horoscope, the Dragon year is supposedly great for prosperity, which in turn is believed to be a good year for property purchases. At least this may be what Singapore homebuyers are thinking, as the Watertown project at Punggol (99-yr LH, 992 units; D19; TOP 1Q17) has seen strong sales since preview last week.
Following press reports of c.550 units sold to date of which c.90% are Singaporeans/PRs, from our visit to the showflat today we continue to observe a robust turnout of visitors for this project going into the 5th day of the Lunar New Year.
What a buyer is getting now. According to agents on site, c.590 units have been sold as of Friday afternoon today. Prices for the units range from S$1,000-S$1,400 psf, depending on the facing (road facing or waterfront facing) or whether the unit is a SOHO (which is priced higher due to the “double volume”). This is markedly higher than projects eg. A Treasure Trove (Sim Lian, ASP c.S$880 psf) and Prive EC (NTUC, ASP c.S$700 psf) in the vicinity.
Buyers are offered discounts of 15% off the list prices, as well as a further 3% stamp duty rebate after 8 weeks and a further 2% furniture voucher upon TOP. Mortgage rates remain at low levels, with mortgage bankers quoting mortgage rates of 3MSIBOR+0.65-0.7% for the first three years, 3MSIBOR+1% thereafter.
Unique positioning for mixed development. Singapore property buyers seem to have a penchant for mixed developments eg. Compass Heights, Orchard Residences, Hillier and the recent Bedok Residences, and the strong take-up for the Watertown project is another testament to this notion.
This project by a Far East/FCL/Sekisui House JV is an integrated waterfront development sitting on top of a retail mall, Waterway Point with 4 floors and 3 basement levels yielding NLA c.370,000 sf. Sited in a good location beside the Punggol MRT/LRT station, the project is along the Punggol Waterway which is expected to be host to recreational activities including cycling tracks and water sports, as part of the Master Plan for Punggol 21 plus.
Strong sales due to unique positioning; fall off in transactions inevitable. With a likely strong relation between developers’ share prices and transaction volume, we believe part of the recent positive share price performance for developers is likely attributed to healthy take up of recent residential projects like the Watertown project.
We reckon apart from a good location beside a transport node as well as developer discounts, this project’s unique positioning as a mixed development is likely the main draw to strong sales bucking the trend of other projects post ABSD measures affecting buyers’ sentiment.
Moving forward, we continue to believe primary transaction volume is likely to see a decrease at around -20%YoY for 2012.....

peterng8

30-01-12, 12:12

read for info....if thinking of More ECs, GLS coming out n with current CMs plus other considerations such as more units TOPs, units unsold etc ...than more will need to be done to get their proj going?...:o

Lower price draws buyers to Parc Rosewood

The launch of Parc Rosewood condominium over the weekend saw 70 per cent of the 236 units that were offered being sold. But this is after developer Kensington Land decided to price the units at between 8 and 10 per cent lower than comparable transacted home prices in the same area.

Located close to Woodlands Regional Centre, prices were from about S$398,000 for a one-bedroom unit, S$568,000 for a two-bedroom unit and S$778,000 for three-bedroom units. This works out to be about S$925-S$998 psf.

Kensington Land (a joint venture between developers Fragrance Group and World Class Land) said the “very attractive price” is meant to offset any impact on sales from the recently-implemented additional buyers’ stamp duty.

The 670-unit Parc Rosewood is marketed by ERA Realty Network and its key executive officer Eugene Lim said that, based on recent transacted prices of comparable condominium units in the area, it could have been priced at between S$1,030-S$1,100 psf.

However, to ensure sales, the eventual selling price was reduced. “Developers who are realistic will recognise that this is the way to chalk up sales,” he added.
Mr Lim said the buyers were a mix of singles, young couples and PMEBs. “The market is not dead. Buyers are just more discerning now. They know there is more supply coming up and are looking for both pricing and facilities offered,” he said.

Mr Nicholas Mak, executive director, Research & Consultancy Department, SLP International Property Consultants, noted that the healthy sales at Parc Rosewood suggest that there is still latent demand for property.
“Home buyers are waiting for the right price to come to the market,” he added.

Over at the newly-launched 670-unit Tampines Trilliant executive condominium by Sim Lian Group, foot traffic through the showflat was equally brisk.

Mr Kuik Sing Beng, executive director of the Sim Lian Group, said there was a mix of first and second-time home-buyers visiting the showflat over the weekend.

Prices start from S$682,000 for a three-bedroom unit and from S$971,000 for a four-bedroom unit.
Sim Lian also gave updated sales figures for Parc Vera, with 50 per cent of its 452 units sold to date while the 882-unit Treasure Trove in Punggol Central is more than 80 per cent sold.

peterng8

30-01-12, 13:33

:o resale market is dead? with more EC, more new launch, more mixed devpt..more CMs...etc...:o

Outlook for secondary market worsens

Guess what else is giving the secondary market trouble aside from buyers’ growing wariness.
CIMB said:
While new private-home sales touched a new high of 19.2k units in 2011, resale volumes fell 21% qoq in 4Q11 (2.4k units) and 29% yoy in 2011 (13.5k units). Median prices also dipped 2% qoq, going by URA estimates. We believe this trend reflects buyers’ growing wariness.
The secondary market has become a buyers’ market across the board as falling resale prices/volumes extend to the mass market. Agents note buyers’ increasing preference for new homes over resale units.
Worsening the outlook for the secondary market is another upgrade of 2012 physical-completion estimates by the URA, to 13.3k units from 12k in 3Q11. Residential rents have already flattened, up 0.4% qoq in 4Q11 vs. 0.8% in 3Q11.
Inventory remained high with around 40k units still unsold and a pipeline supply of 77k units still the highest since 1999. Not surprisingly, vacancy rates rose to 6% in 4Q11 from 5% in 4Q10.
[quote]

DKSG

30-01-12, 14:25

[quote=peterng8]:o resale market is dead? with more EC, more new launch, more mixed devpt..more CMs...etc...:o

Outlook for secondary market worsens

Guess what else is giving the secondary market trouble aside from buyers’ growing wariness.
CIMB said:
While new private-home sales touched a new high of 19.2k units in 2011, resale volumes fell 21% qoq in 4Q11 (2.4k units) and 29% yoy in 2011 (13.5k units). Median prices also dipped 2% qoq, going by URA estimates. We believe this trend reflects buyers’ growing wariness.
The secondary market has become a buyers’ market across the board as falling resale prices/volumes extend to the mass market. Agents note buyers’ increasing preference for new homes over resale units.
Worsening the outlook for the secondary market is another upgrade of 2012 physical-completion estimates by the URA, to 13.3k units from 12k in 3Q11. Residential rents have already flattened, up 0.4% qoq in 4Q11 vs. 0.8% in 3Q11.
Inventory remained high with around 40k units still unsold and a pipeline supply of 77k units still the highest since 1999. Not surprisingly, vacancy rates rose to 6% in 4Q11 from 5% in 4Q10.

The resale market have to be analysed together with new home sales.
People will always be attracted to new home sales because of the marketing. However, it will not take too long before people realised that they are paying 20% more for a new condo compared to one that just TOP a few months back. This will then bring things back into equilibrium.

There are some examples to enhance your understanding, but I dont feel like sharing it here.

DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool

jwong71

30-01-12, 14:33

CCR

30-01-12, 14:53

DC33_2008

30-01-12, 15:05

Not sure if it is a wise move to pay 20-25% premium for a new 99LH unit which will become old someday. There could be some difference when it is new for rental but may not make a difference between a 3 and 6 years units after some years. Well, people like new things.
If buyers are rushing to buy these integrated development at crazy prices, that only fatten the developers margins...

The developers would have cream off all potential upside....

Sometimes its good to think contrarian...

peterng8

30-01-12, 15:07

[quote=DKSG]

what took the buyers so long to realised they are paying 20% or more for a new..?? for them to go back to resales..??

common answer: buying time for top date, to wait out the 4yrs SSD and hope for profits if economy turn out well..

most are in the market for sometime, would have notice this;
- the buyer's character.

very small % of resale can move, not dead. just crawling almost to halt

;)

peterng8

30-01-12, 15:16

If buyers are rushing to buy these integrated development at crazy prices, that only fatten the developers margins...

The developers would have cream off all potential upside....

Sometimes its good to think contrarian...

the next thing other developers might do Whenever possible , all rush to launch more waterpoint, more hiliers, more bedok residences :p how can only let one developer eat all:p ..after that, another CM lo...:p

peterng8

02-02-12, 11:49

More EC to pull away potential buyers from Private and EC also offers alternative choice to potential buyers..the question is in the first place the buyers are getting lesser and are beng diluted from so many ECs ,PC projs and mixed devpt currently and in the pipeline...:o :o not to mention resale ...dead...and not to look at more going TOPs and with so many CMs in place and current economic situation..your view ?

Lukewarm response to Tampines Trilliant

Applications for the recently-launched Tampines Trilliant Executive Condominium hit about 1,000 at the close of its first launch on Tuesday.

The 670-unit condo, developed by Sim Lian Group, saw large crowds turning up at its launch last Friday, but whether this translates to actual buyers taking up the units is still unclear.

Bookings for the apartments will close this weekend.

City Developments’ 466-unit The Rainforest Executive Condominium project, which was launched in early January, has to date sold just over a third of its units, even though more than 800 applications were received.

Analysts said the performance of Tampines Trilliant over the opening weekend is considered below expectations, possibly because it is priced higher than other similar developments.

Prices for the project range from S$682,000 for a three-room unit to S$971,000 for a four-room unit.

Eugene Lim, executive officer at ERA Realty, said: “The EC (Executive Condo), BTO (Build-To-Order) market is likely to continue to be active going forward in 2012 because at the end of the day, there is still a lot of demand.

“But consumers are aware that there is a lot of choice, so they are likely to be more discerning and will compare what is being offered versus what they have to pay for it.”

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 1 Feb 2012

ysyap

02-02-12, 12:34

The EC at Punggol will be next in line... Hmmm... will it be as popular as Watertown? :rolleyes:

peterng8

02-02-12, 12:57

The EC at Punggol will be next in line... Hmmm... will it be as popular as Watertown? :rolleyes:

I think (only)no doubt Mixed devpt and EC will be the hottest in 2012(i mean in the limelight) ...if Choa chu kang and tampines EC(both are near to MRT) are selling with so so outcome maybe puggol will be better if pricing is low low at this location and with the so called hype effect generated recently we may see it is attractive to singkies...:o but again the application maybe good but takeup rate will be another thing...as too many choices already...buyer market now??

peterng8

03-02-12, 08:07

the next thing other developers might do Whenever possible , all rush to launch more waterpoint, more hiliers, more bedok residences :p how can only let one developer eat all:p ..after that, another CM lo...:p

Singapore property developers cautious about market outlook

February 3, 2012 ⋅

Property developers seem pessimistic about the outlook for Singapore’s real estate market in 2012, with some analysts foreseeing a five to ten percent drop in property prices this year.

But market watchers also say the strong interest in recent property launches could defy these forecasts and even lead to more cooling measures.

Celebrations continue but property developers are still in the dark about the outlook for Singapore’s property market in 2012.

Mr Wong Heang Fine, President, Real Estate Developer’s Association of Singapore, said: “We are cautious. On the market going forward, it all depends on how the global economy goes in the next eleven months. So it’s really anybody’s guess.”

URA data shows the rate of price increase for private residential properties moderating for the ninth consecutive quarter with rentals also tapering off.
Still, the strong interest in recent property launches show that there is liquidity in the markets.

But while home sales in January are expected to be high, REDAS warned that the healthy figures do not indicate how the rest of the market will perform this year.

Mr Wong Heang Fine, President, Real Estate Developer’s Association of Singapore, said: “I think January figures, you must look at it more in perspective. Actually January figures are generated by the new launches of two or three projects. So the numbers itself does not really reflect the entire state of the market. “

Although it is unusual for developers to talk down the market, it may be that they have other concerns on their minds.

Png Poh Soon, Director, Consultancy & Research, Knight Frank, said: “Against a good take-up and when sales volume start increasing, will there be a sixth round of cooling measures? I think the additional buyer’s stamp duty had some impact on buyer sentiment. Already there are some analysts and generally the market have been saying that there will knee-jerk effect on the residential sector.”

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone debt crisis and the additional buyer’s stamp duty weighing on sentiment, analysts say property developers will continue to offer attractive lifestyle products to potential homeowners.

And these are likely to come in the form of integrated developments such as the Watertown and the Hillier.

The last thing they want are more cooling measures.
Instead, they are hoping for some respite in the upcoming Budget.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 2 Feb 2012

DC33_2008

03-02-12, 10:17

REDAS president is pre-warning KBW not too implement another CM as Jan sales volume will double that of Dec sales volume.

gn108

03-02-12, 10:30

KBW told him not to worry liao ...one month sales will not move him to take action...but wait and see near July - Sept period. Don't worry...yet!

REDAS president is pre-warning KBW not too implement another CM as Jan sales volume will double that of Dec sales volume.

peterng8

03-02-12, 10:35

REDAS president is pre-warning KBW not too implement another CM as Jan sales volume will double that of Dec sales volume.

I wonder who is the game master who set the rules for the games...REDAS or KBW? :p

gn108

03-02-12, 10:39

Both play poker with our money as chips ...it's called playing with Other People's Money (OPM).

I wonder who is the game master who set the rules for the games...REDAS or KBW? :p

DC33_2008

03-02-12, 10:44

What will happen to the period jul - sept?
KBW told him not to worry liao ...one month sales will not move him to take action...but wait and see near July - Sept period. Don't worry...yet!

gn108

03-02-12, 10:57

Rosy

03-02-12, 11:12

You guys are so optismistic. Property prices can rise by alot this year of let say >5% to warrant a further CM?

peterng8

03-02-12, 11:37

Secondary market for private homes heading for doldrums

The secondary market for private homes is shrinking. Of that, there is no doubt. The trend has been clear since the second half of 2010, but what is unnerving is the rate at which demand is shrinking.

Official figures show that the number of resale and sub-sale deals have fallen by more than a quarter last year compared to 2010. Their market share of total sales has also fallen to about 57 per cent from 61 per cent in 2010.

Many property watchers have pointed to the revised seller’s stamp duty (SSD) imposed in January last year as the primary cause of the decline. They say it may have channelled more purchases towards units offered at project launches. Likewise, they say, the situation is going to get worse following the introduction of the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) in December last year.

With the ABSD, foreigners have to pay a duty of 10 per cent on top of the existing buyer’s stamp duty of about 3 per cent. Permanent residents who buy a second and subsequent residential property will pay 3 per cent more in stamp duty. Singaporeans who already have two residential properties will have to pay the extra 3 per cent on their third and subsequent home purchases.

With respect to the SSD, those buying a private home on or after Jan 14 last year have to pay a duty of 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent if they sell the property within the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase, respectively.

Analysts say the majority of investors prefer to buy uncompleted properties at project launches as they can minimise their capital exposure with progress payments. Also, by the time the property is completed in about three to four years, they would be hit only by a relatively small 4 per cent SSD, if at all.

Yet others say the higher number of project launches and wider range of properties offered may have diverted buyers’ attention away from the secondary market.
Both are valid arguments.

But most investors have a preference for either uncompleted or completed properties. Only a small proportion invests in both.
Also, the sales at project launches did not show any significant increase. Rather, sales in the primary market have held firm while those in the secondary market have plunged.

So, if not the revised SSD, what could have caused the slump?

While we may disagree on the extent, most of us would agree that the majority of buyers at project launches today are predominantly investors. The majority of upgraders or owner-occupiers would have been priced out of the primary market by now.

If they are still looking to buy private homes, they would most probably be viewing the completed ones. However, the falling sales seem to suggest that this group of buyers may also be fast disappearing from the secondary market.

Besides the imposition of the SSD, what else was new last year that could have triggered the decline in sales?

Last year was the first full year that executive condominiums (ECs) made their presence felt again in the non-HDB housing market. There were more than 2.7 times the number of ECs sold last year than in 2010.

For the first time in a very long time, a third alternative had emerged for upgraders and owner occupiers – apart from just choosing between units offered at project launches and those in the secondary market. If we include ECs in the analysis, it is obvious where the demand has shifted to.
The raising of the monthly income ceiling to purchase new ECs from S$10,000 to S$12,000 on Aug 15 last year may have accelerated the swing in demand to ECs.

The recent announcement that the number of EC sites to be sold in the first half of this year would be raised to six, with five on the Government’s Confirmed List, also does not bode well for the secondary market for private homes.

Sites expected to yield 3,500 EC units will be made available in 1H2012, including five on the Confirmed List that will yield 3,000 EC units. This Confirmed List quantum is comparable to the 3,000 EC units from five sites sold for the whole of last year.

Some may question the sharp increase in supply of ECs and ask whether there is enough demand to sustain sales. My own feeling is that with this swing in demand, there will be more than enough demand to absorb the increased supply.

I fear investors may find it increasingly difficult to dispose of their completed properties from this year onwards unless prices at launches resume their climb, which may alter the dynamics between the different markets yet again.

But what are the chances of this happening?
By Colin Tan – of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

CCR

03-02-12, 13:04

Hopefully, nothing.
Just the duration between CM is around 12 months but the last one was only 11 months. So earliest - sld be Aug/Sep if any.

REDAS just wayang-wayang show that it has 'influence' - but KBW also say takes months to see how market reacts to each CM. REDAS no real power ...anyway their members are profit machines not power-chasing.

No need for REDAS to wayang...

Did you notice that since KBW became MND Minister her never attend any REDAS events? He is keeping an arms length... last year was Tan Chuan Jin that went... this week its Transport minister.... lol..

He is sending the msg that he is not MBT... will not cosy up to them... work is work :o

maisonjai

03-02-12, 13:53

Did you notice that since KBW became MND Minister her never attend any REDAS events? He is keeping an arms length... last year was Tan Chuan Jin that went... this week its Transport minister.... lol..

He is sending the msg that he is not MBT... will not cosy up to them... work is work :o
Got leh, carry lattern....
Close to 380 distinguished guests and captains of the industry attended this year’s REDAS Mid-Autumn Lunch held on 9 September 2011 at the Shangri-la Hotel Singapore. The occasion was the first time Mr Khaw Boon Wan, Minister for National Development attended a REDAS’ event as the Guest-of-Honour

CCR

03-02-12, 14:07

Got leh, carry lattern....
Close to 380 distinguished guests and captains of the industry attended this year’s REDAS Mid-Autumn Lunch held on 9 September 2011 at the Shangri-la Hotel Singapore. The occasion was the first time Mr Khaw Boon Wan, Minister for National Development attended a REDAS’ event as the Guest-of-Honour

Oh yes..... but after CM5 then dont want to go liao lol...

peterng8

04-02-12, 08:19

Wave of supply to hit property market

Fourth-quarter data released last Friday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) point to a massive, unprecedented wave of upcoming supply in the residential, commercial and industrial segments, sounding a clear warning to investors who may have entered the market recently at high prices.
RESIDENTIAL OVERHANG
http://luxuryasiahome.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/chart1.jpg?w=750Four quarters ago, the expected private home completions for last year and this year were 8,430 and 8,116 units, respectively. As we can see from Chart 1, we ended last year with 12,469 units completed, 48 per cent higher than the number published four quarters ago. The number for this year has also been revised upwards to 13,308 units, about 64 per cent higher than the 8,116 we were told to expect last year.
http://luxuryasiahome.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/table1.jpg?w=750Let’s examine the data in Table 1. Included in the expected 31,001 units that are expected to obtain TOP (temporary occupation permit) in 2015 are 9,501 units that were already under construction in 4Q2011. To have 9,501 units taking another up to four years to complete is unlikely. Most residential projects are completed between 24 and 36 months after piling begins. Therefore, the bulk of the 9,501 units should be completed in 2013 or 2014.
Looking ahead, we can expect the completion of residential projects to be ahead of schedule, i.e. the wave of supply will hit us sooner. This time round, the avalanche of supply might coincide with a faltering global economy amid weak occupier demand. Investors should seriously take these “earlier-than-expected supplies” into consideration before making their investments.
The rate of vacancy of private homes have already crept up from 5 per cent (or 12,883 units) at the end of 2010 to 5.9 per cent (15,980 units) last December. The imminent flood of supply will likely push this higher.
DEVELOPER’S APPETITE
The oft-heard counter-argument goes like this: There’s nothing to worry about because most of these units have been pre-sold by developers way before TOP is obtained. In the last few weeks, despite the introduction of the fifth round of cooling measures with the Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty, we saw rapid take-up at developers’ mass-market projects such as Watertown in Punggol and The Hillier in Hillview.
Backed by a fast pace of pre-sales, developers have also rushed to replenish their land banks. The Government Land Sales (GLS) programme is well subscribed, or over-subscribed in the case of choice sites connected by transportation infrastructure or rare sites such as the plot for landed homes in Chestnut Avenue. Since early 2010, developers have actively tendered for residential land parcels and turning around the projects for launch within nine months – and even the introduction of repeated sets of cooling measures did not dampen the number of bidders for each tender.
http://luxuryasiahome.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/table2.jpg?w=750From Table 2, the developers’ appetites seem insatiable because they are backed by the fast pace of pre-sales at launch and, therefore, the GLS must keep rolling on. Because, as the rationale goes, increasing land supplies can lead to a cooling of prices. Perhaps. Perhaps not.
OTHER PROPERTY SEGMENTS
Table 3 shows the current total stock, including public sector stock, of floor space in the commercial and industrial segments. In each segment, the proportion of the upcoming supply versus the current available floor space is around 15 per cent, with the Business Park segment seeing the fattest pipeline of supply at 33 per cent of current stock.
http://luxuryasiahome.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/table3.jpg?w=750Given the weakening macro- economic environment, market analysts are revising downwards the rental values for these segments. Vacancy rates are also expected to increase as the pace of business expansion slows on the back of the strong supply.
PAIN LIES AHEAD
The flood of supply seems to be sweeping across almost all segments. While holding power is strong today due to low interest rates, real estate valuations may deteriorate quickly once the macro-economic environment collapses, causing pain especially to the recent investors who have bought high.
By Ku Swee Yong – chief executive of real estate agency International Property Advisor and author of Real Estate Riches – Understanding Singapore’s Property Market in a Volatile Economy

peterng8

06-02-12, 09:26

resale ...not moving, with more EC launch, double whammy , ECs hot...:o

Demand for ECs to stay despite economic outlook: analysts

Property analysts said subscription rates for executive condominiums (ECs), remain healthy in spite of the uncertain economic outlook. And it is also precisely because of the economic climate that analysts said demand for such housing is likely to stay.

In January, about 1,000 people had indicated their interest to buy one of the 670 units at The Tampines Trilliant – which analysts said was a healthy 1.5 subscription rate. A balloting process was held on Saturday.
Steven Tan, Managing Director of OrangeTee, a real estate agency, said: “We have a very good mixture of first timers and second timers, and we do see that there’s a very strong demand from young couples staying near their parents in the area, so they want to buy an EC which is convenient to visit their family in future.”

Developer Sim Lian Group said prices start from S$682,000 for a three-bedroom unit, and S$971,000 for a four-bedroom unit.

However, compared to private condominiums, property analyst Chris Koh said buying an EC may be a worthwhile investment if one does not mind the restrictions imposed, and waiting 10 years for it to be privatised.

He said: “It may be one ticket to getting your private condominium. I’ve had friends who have bought an EC before. While condominiums were going for S$800,000 to S$900,000, they bought it at S$600,000. But today, 10 years later, when the EC has privatised, it’s now worth S$1 million. So prices have escalated over the 10 years by easily 40 to 50 per cent, or even more.

“But the point is this, in absolute terms, they paid a lot lesser than one who had bought a condominium in that area. So that’s really the savings that one makes when they buy an EC. And if they hold it for 10 years, they would have got the private property that they wanted.”
Even with the uncertain global economic outlook, analysts said demand for ECs is likely to stay.

Mr Koh said: “If the economic situation is not favourable, then all the more they would not be so daring to jump into the private property and buy a brand new condo, or even a resale condo. So what would they do? They’ll fall back and say ‘Perhaps I’ll buy an EC’. So I foresee there will still be a demand.”

Mr Koh added that ECs are attractive to buyers because they are very similar to condominiums.
He said: “In terms of finishings, in terms of facilities, an EC doesn’t lose out to a condominium at all. One, it’s developed by a private developer, so you know he will put in all the facilities to make that EC as classy as a condominium.”

Mr Koh added that most EC buyers are not speculators because there is a minimum occupation period of five years.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 4 Feb 2012

august

06-02-12, 10:24

Just curious, the 5 yr MOP starts from TOP right?

price

06-02-12, 10:26

Just curious, the 5 yr MOP starts from TOP right?

Yup!! Only after you move in

Laguna

06-02-12, 10:28

Just curious, the 5 yr MOP starts from TOP right?

from date of key collection

peterng8

08-02-12, 13:31

EC hot....but mostly to upgraders....so going ahead resale??
More buyers shifting to non-HDB homes

An increasing number of home buyers are now turning to non-HDB homes, with ECs becoming their top choice, according to R’ST Research.

Purchases for non-HDB homes such as landed, non-landed private and EC units hit a record of 13,910 units in 2011, up from 13,769 units in 2010. ECs now account for 42 percent of the sales transactions across the non-HDB housing segment, according to URA Realis data.

ECs notched another record with the largest growth in demand from upgraders, growing 123 percent year-on-year with 2,407 units sold in the sale and resale segments.

“The interest for ECs was due to the large supply of EC units which were launched in 2011 and specifically, new EC projects cater to the needs of the sandwich home buyers, who were mostly HDB dwellers with income falling within the limits of a new EC purchase,” said Ong Kah Seng, Director at R’ST Research.

The location of many projects, along with the growth corridors and the quest for better housing have also strengthened sales. Moreover, upgraders now have deeper pockets with the rise in resale prices of HDB flats, partly due to higher cash-over-valuation (COV) numbers.

Ong added that the appreciation in public flat prices has “psychologically motivated” some owners to shift to private homes.
Source : PropertyGuru – 7 Feb 2012