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14-02-12, 17:44
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/premiumstory/0,4574,477403-1328990340,00.html?
Published February 11, 2012
Developer sentiment weakens: poll
Most cite impact of Additional Buyers Stamp Duty on purchase of properties
By MINDY TAN
DEVELOPERS' sentiments of the market have weakened compared to last quarter, particularly in the residential sector, in large part due to the impact of the Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) introduced late last year.
According to the latest survey by the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) and the National University of Singapore (NUS), the Current Sentiment Index - where respondents rate Singapore's real estate market conditions vis-Ã -vis six months ago - slipped to 3.5 in Q4 from 3.6 in the previous quarter.
The index ranges from 0 to 10, with a score above 5 indicating improving market conditions.
The Future Sentiment Index - in which respondents rate overall property market conditions over the next six months - fell to 3.1 in Q4 from 3.4 in Q3. As a result, the Composite Sentiment Index slipped to 3.3 in Q4, from 3.5 the previous quarter.
Of the sectors, the residential sector is expected to perform the worst. Current and future net balance for the prime residential sector (difference between respondents who thought the sector would fare better versus those who thought it would fare worse) slid from -30 per cent and -48 per cent in Q3 to -67 per cent and -79 per cent respectively in Q4. Suburban residential's net balance of current and future performance is -26 per cent, and -57 per cent respectively.
The office sector too worsened from -16 per cent and -57 per cent previously, to -52 per cent and -67 per cent in Q4.
Prime and suburban retail sectors saw future net balances of -39 per cent and -19 per cent respectively; the business park/ high-tech space and industrial/ logistics sectors saw future net balances of -33 per cent and -35 per cent respectively.
Only the current net balance of the hotel/serviced apartment sector was in positive territory (+17 per cent); net balance of future performance is expected to be -8 per cent.
In addition, 54 per cent of developers expect more residential units to be launched over the next six months. A further 18 per cent expect launches to stay at the same level.
Some 67 per cent of respondents expect primary residential market prices to soften, up from 37 per cent the previous quarter, while 8 per cent anticipate a major decline in prices in the near term. Thirty-six per cent of those polled expect levels of interest in the Government Land Sales programme to remain unchanged; 54 per cent expect lesser interest. Forty-nine per cent compared to 5 per cent the previous quarter anticipate lower level of interest in the en-bloc sales market over the next six months.
On the introduction of ABSD, 94 per cent of the respondents say the measures have a moderate to significant impact on the purchase of private residential properties by foreigners and PRs for investment purposes, and the demand for high end/luxury and mid-tier properties at 92 per cent and 88 per cent respectively.
On the other hand, the ABSD is expected to have minimal impact on purchase by Singaporeans for owner-occupation (70 per cent) and demand for mass market properties (43 per cent).
Published February 11, 2012
Developer sentiment weakens: poll
Most cite impact of Additional Buyers Stamp Duty on purchase of properties
By MINDY TAN
DEVELOPERS' sentiments of the market have weakened compared to last quarter, particularly in the residential sector, in large part due to the impact of the Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) introduced late last year.
According to the latest survey by the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) and the National University of Singapore (NUS), the Current Sentiment Index - where respondents rate Singapore's real estate market conditions vis-Ã -vis six months ago - slipped to 3.5 in Q4 from 3.6 in the previous quarter.
The index ranges from 0 to 10, with a score above 5 indicating improving market conditions.
The Future Sentiment Index - in which respondents rate overall property market conditions over the next six months - fell to 3.1 in Q4 from 3.4 in Q3. As a result, the Composite Sentiment Index slipped to 3.3 in Q4, from 3.5 the previous quarter.
Of the sectors, the residential sector is expected to perform the worst. Current and future net balance for the prime residential sector (difference between respondents who thought the sector would fare better versus those who thought it would fare worse) slid from -30 per cent and -48 per cent in Q3 to -67 per cent and -79 per cent respectively in Q4. Suburban residential's net balance of current and future performance is -26 per cent, and -57 per cent respectively.
The office sector too worsened from -16 per cent and -57 per cent previously, to -52 per cent and -67 per cent in Q4.
Prime and suburban retail sectors saw future net balances of -39 per cent and -19 per cent respectively; the business park/ high-tech space and industrial/ logistics sectors saw future net balances of -33 per cent and -35 per cent respectively.
Only the current net balance of the hotel/serviced apartment sector was in positive territory (+17 per cent); net balance of future performance is expected to be -8 per cent.
In addition, 54 per cent of developers expect more residential units to be launched over the next six months. A further 18 per cent expect launches to stay at the same level.
Some 67 per cent of respondents expect primary residential market prices to soften, up from 37 per cent the previous quarter, while 8 per cent anticipate a major decline in prices in the near term. Thirty-six per cent of those polled expect levels of interest in the Government Land Sales programme to remain unchanged; 54 per cent expect lesser interest. Forty-nine per cent compared to 5 per cent the previous quarter anticipate lower level of interest in the en-bloc sales market over the next six months.
On the introduction of ABSD, 94 per cent of the respondents say the measures have a moderate to significant impact on the purchase of private residential properties by foreigners and PRs for investment purposes, and the demand for high end/luxury and mid-tier properties at 92 per cent and 88 per cent respectively.
On the other hand, the ABSD is expected to have minimal impact on purchase by Singaporeans for owner-occupation (70 per cent) and demand for mass market properties (43 per cent).