View Full Version : Is this even sustainable?
Eldenfirefly
21-02-12, 16:31
Our GDP per capita is now 50,714 USD. Its already one of the highest in the world. And current property prices are at above 1000 psf for OCR. Even HDB also not that cheap any more. Questions is, is this sustainable in the long term?
Buying a property is a function of your income. The more you earn, the bigger the housing instalment payment you can afford. (Most people don't have the kind of cash to pay for property in full). So, if we are already one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, how much higher can we go? The competition is global nowadays. If Singaporeans refuse to work unless starting pay is at least $3000 or more, companies can start looking overseas for much cheaper workers who will do so for a fraction of our cost.
We used to say compared to westerners, we are cheap. But Sing dollar so super strong while their currency keep on dropping. Its no longer true. Now, their salaries quite comparable to ours already. We are now longer cheap.
Those of you banking on property chiong up another 100% in 10 years. The big question is, does that mean our income will chiong up 100% also? If it doesn't where is all that buying power going to come from? Foreigners? They don't make up the majority of our property buyers, and I doubt if government wants them to come in and distort the market.
Nowadays loan already extend until cannot extend already. 35 years max. Extend till next generation to pay off? Interest rate already rock bottom, cannot fall further, only way is up.
So, where are we going to get all the money to afford 2000 psf for a property? Starting pay next time 6000 S$ per month? If western country keep going backwards and SGD keep on going up. 6000 per month there can hire manager or higher level already.
So, how? Someone tell me. Otherwise, I just cannot see property going up like that over the next 10 years. 40 years ago, we are far far behind other countries, but today, we are on par, if not more expensive than most other places already. So, how to go up another 100%? :beats-me-man: We don't live in a bubble.
Unless we say, only the rich foreigners and higher mortals can buy up all our peroperty, while the rest of us lower mortals no house to stay? I don't think Government will let that happen, not if it doesn't want to lose more seats...
Eldenfirefly
21-02-12, 16:54
To add to that. Other countries like Dubai have seen something like that before. See Dubai now, property crash 50% and looks like it will be in the slump for a long time. Foreigner money is quick in quick out, only local money is likely to stay for the long term. But in the long term, ability of locals to pay high property prices depend on their income. Can Singapore income grow so much on all levels?
So, taxi driver in Singapore next time earn more than manager in the US? :beats-me-man:
Better faster get on the boat and buy something. Sell it for profit when time comes. You know very well wages will never increase enough to match inflation and progress of young developing first world country.
Taxi driver ALREADY earn more than average manager in US, after taxes. Why else you think many a former CEO willing to retire and be cab driver.
1.) wage increase supported by going up the technological ladder (wide moat compared to the rest of region due to strong intellectual property rights here) and also increase in productivity
http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC120104-0000047/New-sectors-identified-to-increase-productivity
2.) asset prices supported by import of inflation from other countries who are currently debasing their currencies.
3.) agree that prices will come down when interest rates start going up, which is why the govt is moderating the bubble by cooling measures to make sure the landing wont be too hard later
4.) govt wont let mass mkt to not have roof over their heads.. thats why got public housing ... HDB prices are always moderated by the median income of residents (not foreigners)
i think singapore gonna follow hongkong & japan trend...
devilplate
21-02-12, 17:43
tats y MM is here to stay.
and everybody knows property goes in a cycle. wait for the next down cycle lor.....
MM sizes oredi cut till cannot cut liao......new mm launches psf oredi stagnant liao.....12xx-13xxpsf stuck there liao.....
big quantum ccr property rental on the way down oredi......
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2012/2/32377/rental-prices-down-20-in-singapore
CCR prices high chance gona drop soon......i am waiting for u ;)
I have cleared all my property holdings; the only residential property that I am now holding onto is the one in which my family stays. In the process, I have also deleveraged to reduce my exposure as the likelihood of a topping out market is increasing with each passing month.
Moving into 2013, we will need to watch interest rates closely as it is inevitable that the excess liquidity in the global financial system has to be mopped up one way or another. The rising rates will apply significant downward pressure on property prices locally.
Based on recent developments in those regions, we will also need to be wary of black swan events arising from the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. Given the current combination of the lack-lustre domestic situation in the U.S. and unstable politics in the Middle East, there is a chance of military-based developments taking place to distract from domestic economic issues.
tats y MM is here to stay.
and everybody knows property goes in a cycle. wait for the next down cycle lor.....
MM sizes oredi cut till cannot cut liao......new mm launches psf oredi stagnant liao.....12xx-13xxpsf stuck there liao.....
big quantum ccr property rental on the way down oredi......
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2012/2/32377/rental-prices-down-20-in-singapore
CCR prices high chance gona drop soon......i am waiting for u ;)
If our GDP becoming the world's highest.
Is our property prices among the world's highest?
Is the high prices in the cities with the highest GDP sustainable.... they have been high for a long time....
There's your answer.
If there is anything that is holding back high prices, it's our "public" housing policy. That forms the lowest denominator.
:2cents:
Our GDP per capita is now 50,714 USD. Its already one of the highest in the world. And current property prices are at above 1000 psf for OCR. Even HDB also not that cheap any more. Questions is, is this sustainable in the long term?
Buying a property is a function of your income. The more you earn, the bigger the housing instalment payment you can afford. (Most people don't have the kind of cash to pay for property in full). So, if we are already one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, how much higher can we go? The competition is global nowadays. If Singaporeans refuse to work unless starting pay is at least $3000 or more, companies can start looking overseas for much cheaper workers who will do so for a fraction of our cost.
We used to say compared to westerners, we are cheap. But Sing dollar so super strong while their currency keep on dropping. Its no longer true. Now, their salaries quite comparable to ours already. We are now longer cheap.
Those of you banking on property chiong up another 100% in 10 years. The big question is, does that mean our income will chiong up 100% also? If it doesn't where is all that buying power going to come from? Foreigners? They don't make up the majority of our property buyers, and I doubt if government wants them to come in and distort the market.
Nowadays loan already extend until cannot extend already. 35 years max. Extend till next generation to pay off? Interest rate already rock bottom, cannot fall further, only way is up.
So, where are we going to get all the money to afford 2000 psf for a property? Starting pay next time 6000 S$ per month? If western country keep going backwards and SGD keep on going up. 6000 per month there can hire manager or higher level already.
So, how? Someone tell me. Otherwise, I just cannot see property going up like that over the next 10 years. 40 years ago, we are far far behind other countries, but today, we are on par, if not more expensive than most other places already. So, how to go up another 100%? :beats-me-man: We don't live in a bubble.
Unless we say, only the rich foreigners and higher mortals can buy up all our peroperty, while the rest of us lower mortals no house to stay? I don't think Government will let that happen, not if it doesn't want to lose more seats...
From my observation, there is one trend that is repeating itself. An that is the PMET that are FT will promote their own race and leaving the locals aside.
Used to be that the IT engineers from India are cheap. Nowadays when I reach the office I am fighting for parking lots with engineers on work permit.
They are no longer cheap as you expect. So they have money to rent. Buying property here ?, not so sure.
So the real question now is, will the singaporean be displlace in our own country ?
Allthepies
21-02-12, 20:08
From my observation, there is one trend that is repeating itself. An that is the PMET that are FT will promote their own race and leaving the locals aside.
Used to be that the IT engineers from India are cheap. Nowadays when I reach the office I am fighting for parking lots with engineers on work permit.
They are no longer cheap as you expect. So they have money to rent. Buying property here ?, not so sure.
So the real question now is, will the singaporean be displlace in our own country ?
to be fair the foreigners working in the service sector have much better attitude and performance than our singaporean counterparts; it will be our lost if we dont hire them in this sector.i can't comment on PMETs though
PropertyNewbie
21-02-12, 21:29
Confirm not sustainable.
And the GOVT will not let prices say in RCR Yishun Woodlands or CCK go to crazy 2000psf levels.
They will simply release CM after CM to keep prices in check.
Reasons:
1. Political
Last GE already kena warning. PM acknowledged that complains about high property prices are affecting voting results. Whether or not it is right to interfere in the private property market is moot, for political survival they HAVE to do it.
2. Economy
GOVT does not want a housing bubble. For the health of the economy, for the health of the banks, for the health of Land Sales, etc...
3. Social
The GOVT is trying hard not to let the wealth/social gap run too wide. This will create discontent in the lower/middle classes. They WILL make housing, either public or private housing, affordable to a big strata of voters.
devilplate
21-02-12, 21:36
I have cleared all my property holdings; the only residential property that I am now holding onto is the one in which my family stays. In the process, I have also deleveraged to reduce my exposure as the likelihood of a topping out market is increasing with each passing month.
Moving into 2013, we will need to watch interest rates closely as it is inevitable that the excess liquidity in the global financial system has to be mopped up one way or another. The rising rates will apply significant downward pressure on property prices locally.
Based on recent developments in those regions, we will also need to be wary of black swan events arising from the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. Given the current combination of the lack-lustre domestic situation in the U.S. and unstable politics in the Middle East, there is a chance of military-based developments taking place to distract from domestic economic issues.
Tats fast! How u manage to sell so fast within these 2mths? Fetch current market px or?
You a real newbie? What you said didn't make sense as follow:
1. Most people complain HDB flat prices lah, not private properties. It is not govt's job to guarantee you or anybody a private property (since <20% household will own a private property).
2. For the sake of the state's coffer, land price will just have to increase to catch up inflation and hence property price will have to rise similar to inflation rate. Otherwise selling land below market value or fair value is called raiding of Singapore's reserve!
3. If govt ensure private property is so cheap, then who buy and live in HDB? Sure everybody want private property with facilities lah! Who want to work hard to upgrade when everything so cheap and affordable?
Gov's national responsibility is just to ensure you have a cheap (read "HDB") housing, nothing to do with private property! :p
The easiest way to achieve what you said "The GOVT is trying hard not to let the wealth/social gap run too wide. This will create discontent in the lower/middle classes." is to go back to communism! :doh::tongue3:
Confirm not sustainable.
And the GOVT will not let prices say in RCR Yishun Woodlands or CCK go to crazy 2000psf levels.
They will simply release CM after CM to keep prices in check.
Reasons:
1. Political
Last GE already kena warning. PM acknowledged that complains about high property prices are affecting voting results. Whether or not it is right to interfere in the private property market is moot, for political survival they HAVE to do it.
2. Economy
GOVT does not want a housing bubble. For the health of the economy, for the health of the banks, for the health of Land Sales, etc...
3. Social
The GOVT is trying hard not to let the wealth/social gap run too wide. This will create discontent in the lower/middle classes. They WILL make housing, either public or private housing, affordable to a big strata of voters.
2. Economy
GOVT does not want a housing bubble. For the health of the economy, for the health of the banks, for the health of Land Sales, etc...
Housing bubble, like it or not, is already here...else why so many CMs. Like all bubbles, no prize for guessing what happen when it pops!
May the mass x acceleration be with you!
No property bubble yet, says MM
Jun 28, 2010 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
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There is no bubble yet in the Singapore property market, said Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.
The sharp price increases that have been experienced were "part of the total liquidity in the whole world system", said Mr. Lee, adding that foreigners still see properties as affordable and interest rates are still low.
"Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it," he said. "And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos."
Mr. Lee said the Singapore government is convinced that there is an underlying demand for residential property. "So it’s probably not a bubble yet."
He stressed that the Singapore government has taken measures to address concerns regarding the market overheating such as releasing more land to property developers and putting in place more stringent policies for homebuyers when borrowing from banks to acquire a property.
"More land is being released, to dampen the enthusiasm of everybody rushing for the latest release, and we’ve told the banks to be more prudent and have a higher downpayment," said Mr. Lee.
"These are the precautions we can take, but it does not stop the Indonesians or the Thais or the Malaysian Chinese or the Filipino Chinese from coming here and saying, ‘Compared to what I have to pay in my country, this is cheap’."
http://www.condosingapore.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12359&page=7
Huh?... Jun 2010..?
No property bubble yet, says MM
Jun 28, 2010 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
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There is no bubble yet in the Singapore property market, said Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.
The sharp price increases that have been experienced were "part of the total liquidity in the whole world system", said Mr. Lee, adding that foreigners still see properties as affordable and interest rates are still low.
"Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it," he said. "And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos."
Mr. Lee said the Singapore government is convinced that there is an underlying demand for residential property. "So it’s probably not a bubble yet."
He stressed that the Singapore government has taken measures to address concerns regarding the market overheating such as releasing more land to property developers and putting in place more stringent policies for homebuyers when borrowing from banks to acquire a property.
"More land is being released, to dampen the enthusiasm of everybody rushing for the latest release, and we’ve told the banks to be more prudent and have a higher downpayment," said Mr. Lee.
"These are the precautions we can take, but it does not stop the Indonesians or the Thais or the Malaysian Chinese or the Filipino Chinese from coming here and saying, ‘Compared to what I have to pay in my country, this is cheap’."
http://www.condosingapore.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12359&page=7
http://www.propwise.sg/will-the-upcoming-supply-cause-property-prices-to-fall/
I had let most of them go below market value to clear fast - averagely about 5% to 10% below market value for all. One of my landed sold to the first buyer who came to view.
Tats fast! How u manage to sell so fast within these 2mths? Fetch current market px or?
I had been bullish on the local property market for the last few years (accumulated since 2008). A lot of the upside had been due to the convergence of several factors:
a. supply-demand mismatch (demand increased much faster than supply)
b. liquidity tsunami (money-printing presses working full-time in U.S. and now EU)
c. inflation (partly as a result of b but also due to currency tussle across the world)
d. low-interest rates (partly due to b but also due to artificial suppression by governments world-wide to increase the velocity of money in the global financial system)
e. momentum of rebound from trough in 2009
I have adjusted my stance from bullish to moderately bearish because of changes in the conditions:
a. supply has increased tremendously while demand is now being tempered through FT policy changes
b. the money-printing presses will be slowing down in the U.S. with the improved economic indicators (EU will still be at it for a while)
c. many countries are facing inflationary pressures and have adjusted their policies to keep inflation under control
d. cannot be forever, U.S. will need to adjust them going into 2013 once economic stimulation is no longer a viable reason to congress (even though they have "promised" to keep them low till 2014)
e. momentum has almost, if not already, peaked especially with the CMs coming in (resale volume and prices have stagnated and dipped in Jan 2012)
f. political/military-action risks arising from Middle-East and North Korea
g. political risks arising locally (especially moving into next GE)
http://www.propwise.sg/will-the-upcoming-supply-cause-property-prices-to-fall/
I had let most of them go below market value to clear fast - averagely about 5% to 10% below market value for all. One of my landed sold to the first buyer who came to view.
I recall bullman bought two landed about 10% below "market value" in recent months... could the buyer be...
devilplate
22-02-12, 08:00
I had let most of them go below market value to clear fast - averagely about 5% to 10% below market value for all. One of my landed sold to the first buyer who came to view.
icic...
interesting tat u dump ur asset even though u got holding power.
u got PM. ;)
Eldenfirefly
22-02-12, 08:49
Some of us think just keep HDB affordable, let private chiong can already. But its not as simple as that. Everything cascades down in effect. If a PR finds condo too expensive, then his next target would be to buy a resale HDB. If condo chiong up too high until only the very rich expats can afford, then automatically the resale HDB market will be flooded by PRs looking for a place to stay.
You let resale HDB chiong up, then your BTO got a problem also. The difference between resale HDB and a brand new BTO flat is just 5 years. So, are we saying, anyone just stay in a BTO for 5 years, immediately can get hundreds of thousands of dollars free? (if we artifically keep BTO price down).
Our Ginni Coefficient already one of the worst in the world, and this Ginni coeddicient is used to show that the gap between the rich and the poor here is already very big. If you open the floodgates to let in the rich to push up the property market, it will only get worse.
As seen from the latest measure. They are realising that there is too much hot money coming into Singapore, and some don't mind even earning close to nothing buying Singapore property. They are getting free money overseas because interest rates are close to zero. But they want to place it into real assets, and Singapore property is seen that one of those type of assets.
But we cannot accomodate all the rich from overseas that would want a piece of Singapore's real estate. It would cause a lot of problems (many of which we are already facing now). So, I think government will step in, and if the property market still doesn't cool enough for it, then the will do even more.
Like I said in my opening thread, is it even sustainable? So, in 10 years time, starting salary will be 6000 SGD per month? I will believe it only when I see it.
devilplate
22-02-12, 09:13
every bull run is not sustainable la.....everybody knows it......greed and fear wat......sames goes to every bear market is also not sustainable bcoz prices will never go all the way down.....LOL
its a matter of avoiding entering at the peak to win the game in the long run......look out for signs of peak peak lor......learn from history.....certain patterns may repeat itself
Some of us think just keep HDB affordable, let private chiong can already. But its not as simple as that. Everything cascades down in effect. If a PR finds condo too expensive, then his next target would be to buy a resale HDB. If condo chiong up too high until only the very rich expats can afford, then automatically the resale HDB market will be flooded by PRs looking for a place to stay.
You let resale HDB chiong up, then your BTO got a problem also. The difference between resale HDB and a brand new BTO flat is just 5 years. So, are we saying, anyone just stay in a BTO for 5 years, immediately can get hundreds of thousands of dollars free? (if we artifically keep BTO price down).
Our Ginni Coefficient already one of the worst in the world, and this Ginni coeddicient is used to show that the gap between the rich and the poor here is already very big. If you open the floodgates to let in the rich to push up the property market, it will only get worse.
As seen from the latest measure. They are realising that there is too much hot money coming into Singapore, and some don't mind even earning close to nothing buying Singapore property. They are getting free money overseas because interest rates are close to zero. But they want to place it into real assets, and Singapore property is seen that one of those type of assets.
But we cannot accomodate all the rich from overseas that would want a piece of Singapore's real estate. It would cause a lot of problems (many of which we are already facing now). So, I think government will step in, and if the property market still doesn't cool enough for it, then the will do even more.
Like I said in my opening thread, is it even sustainable? So, in 10 years time, starting salary will be 6000 SGD per month? I will believe it only when I see it.
if you are responding to teddybear's comment, don't waste your time.
I had been bullish on the local property market for the last few years (accumulated since 2008). A lot of the upside had been due to the convergence of several factors:
a. supply-demand mismatch (demand increased much faster than supply)
b. liquidity tsunami (money-printing presses working full-time in U.S. and now EU)
c. inflation (partly as a result of b but also due to currency tussle across the world)
d. low-interest rates (partly due to b but also due to artificial suppression by governments world-wide to increase the velocity of money in the global financial system)
e. momentum of rebound from trough in 2009
I have adjusted my stance from bullish to moderately bearish because of changes in the conditions:
a. supply has increased tremendously while demand is now being tempered through FT policy changes
b. the money-printing presses will be slowing down in the U.S. with the improved economic indicators (EU will still be at it for a while)
c. many countries are facing inflationary pressures and have adjusted their policies to keep inflation under control
d. cannot be forever, U.S. will need to adjust them going into 2013 once economic stimulation is no longer a viable reason to congress (even though they have "promised" to keep them low till 2014)
e. momentum has almost, if not already, peaked especially with the CMs coming in (resale volume and prices have stagnated and dipped in Jan 2012)
f. political/military-action risks arising from Middle-East and North Korea
g. political risks arising locally (especially moving into next GE)
Solid analysis!
But what are you going to do with your cash?
Some rich Chinese bought backrupted US bank for 60M USD.
http://www.zaobao.com.sg/cz/cz120222_006.shtml
My French friend who sold his condo last Dec sitting on 1M cash is thinking of buying farm land in France.
Thanks,
Richard
Eldenfirefly
22-02-12, 09:47
Stocks are still quite cheap now. If worry that stocks are risky, then diversify lor. Buy an equity fund managed by a fund manager.
devilplate
22-02-12, 09:59
Stocks are still quite cheap now. If worry that stocks are risky, then diversify lor. Buy an equity fund managed by a fund manager.
i only buy UT when i dun haf direct access to the stocks wor....for eg...i buy china and india UT instead....for HK, US, SG definitely go for direct stocks better
I had let most of them go below market value to clear fast - averagely about 5% to 10% below market value for all. One of my landed sold to the first buyer who came to view.
Hi samsara,
The newly launched are about 10% to 20% higher than comparable subsales. If you sell 10% below market, those new launches have to go down 30% or more for you to be able to "profit" by buying back. Don't you think you might miss the boat if property prices just consolidate and move up again in 2 or 3 years time? You might be left with no property exposure.
......learn from history.....certain patterns may repeat itself
already repeated.
massive no. of ECs coming out...
LH99 in areas where you would have NEVER even thought of trading at >1100 psf
.. btw I think this is not what TS meant though. He's onto a much broader context ;)
My reply:
1. In the first place, there should be no PRs for HDB public housing. Public housing must be reserved for Singapore citizens only! :D Whether PRs can buy resale HDB or not will depend on whether it is beneficial to singapore citizens or not.
2. Resale HDB prices too high is a problem? No, it won't when HDB provides sufficient new HDB flats for 1st and 2nd timers (which Khaw is doing in the right direction). HDB should have a free float of empty units for rental and sale so that 1st timers don't have to wait so long, so BTO is bad policy, although it definitely helps to control over-supply. What is the problem with rewarding people for being Singapore citizens by profiting from selling their BTO flats? This way, they can upgrade even more easily to private condos! More people vote for PAP! Hooray!
3. Forget about the Ginni coefficient. Does it matter because people are so rich and you red-eye? What if all citizens in Singapore are rich enough, got more a million $ in bank, work and live happily, does it even matter if Ginni coefficient is 0.99? Why should we care how rich the rich are as long as there is no poor singapore citizens? (PRs and foreigners don't need SG govt to take care, they can take care of themselves if they can exist in Singapore).
4. If we can sell $10k psf of properties to foreigners bringing money into Singapore, why not? These money will enrich local companies and govt coffers! All the 4-years SSD will ensure that "hot money" become "cool money" and become very good and welcomed in Singapore! :p
5. Since we cannot accomodate all the rich people, we should let them bid our limited private properties (regulate that they can only buy in, e.g. only CCR region) and sell them at >$100k psf also doesn't matter! Again, they are "cool money", they enrich our local developers, create well-paying jobs, and enrich govt coffers! :cheers6:
6. If BTO flats are so cheap, why would citizens need $6000 pm salary? Govt should just sell BTO 5rm flats at $150k only! Make all citizens have good life even with salary of $1500 pm! :D
In summary, the problem citizens have with govt is that they are selling BTO HDB flats so expensive (not because of private properties so expensive!). Govt don't own citizens a private property, but citizens definitely deserve a cheap public housing! If citizens want cheap private properties, very easy. My suggest to Khaw is to abolish the term "HDB" and "public housing", call all HDB flats to be "private flats", problem solved! Give all HDB flats a name, create MCST committees for all HDB flats and empower the residents will the power just like private properties! What more do these citizens want? Isn't it just a name, whether "HDB" or "private"? You still have to pay more for wanting more right? :tongue3:
if you are responding to teddybear's comment, don't waste your time.
Eldenfirefly[/b]]
Some of us think just keep HDB affordable, let private chiong can already. But its not as simple as that. Everything cascades down in effect. If a PR finds condo too expensive, then his next target would be to buy a resale HDB. If condo chiong up too high until only the very rich expats can afford, then automatically the resale HDB market will be flooded by PRs looking for a place to stay.
You let resale HDB chiong up, then your BTO got a problem also. The difference between resale HDB and a brand new BTO flat is just 5 years. So, are we saying, anyone just stay in a BTO for 5 years, immediately can get hundreds of thousands of dollars free? (if we artifically keep BTO price down).
Our Ginni Coefficient already one of the worst in the world, and this Ginni coeddicient is used to show that the gap between the rich and the poor here is already very big. If you open the floodgates to let in the rich to push up the property market, it will only get worse.
As seen from the latest measure. They are realising that there is too much hot money coming into Singapore, and some don't mind even earning close to nothing buying Singapore property. They are getting free money overseas because interest rates are close to zero. But they want to place it into real assets, and Singapore property is seen that one of those type of assets.
But we cannot accomodate all the rich from overseas that would want a piece of Singapore's real estate. It would cause a lot of problems (many of which we are already facing now). So, I think government will step in, and if the property market still doesn't cool enough for it, then the will do even more.
Like I said in my opening thread, is it even sustainable? So, in 10 years time, starting salary will be 6000 SGD per month? I will believe it only when I see it.
icic...
interesting tat u dump ur asset even though u got holding power.
u got PM. ;)
maybe bro samsara knows something we dont...
Bro Samsara
If prices really come down, which districts will u buy n why?
Do u go for CCR, RCR or OCR?
99/999/ freehold?
Or diversify?
Tks in advance!
Bro, just replied to your PM.
icic...
interesting tat u dump ur asset even though u got holding power.
u got PM. ;)
The following are what I have been doing with the cash that has been freed up:
a. buy into MYR over period of one year (15% of holdings)
b. buy over/invest in small local companies with good margins and promising business models but which need cashflow support (30% of holdings) - unfortunately I don't have $60M to buy up bankrupted banks
c. buy into gold on dips over period of six months (15% of holdings)
d. accumulate oil over period of six months (15% of holdings)
e. keep as liquid cash (25% of holdings)
What are your plans?
Solid analysis!
But what are you going to do with your cash?
Some rich Chinese bought backrupted US bank for 60M USD.
http://www.zaobao.com.sg/cz/cz120222_006.shtml
My French friend who sold his condo last Dec sitting on 1M cash is thinking of buying farm land in France.
Thanks,
Richard
Where UTs are concerned, IMHO, you can make money by starting and running one. The odds are against you when you buy into one...
i only buy UT when i dun haf direct access to the stocks wor....for eg...i buy china and india UT instead....for HK, US, SG definitely go for direct stocks better
IMHO, the Punggol Watertown "success" may be the straw that has broken the proverbial camel's back:
a. MND will definitely whack the property market hard with the next CM
b. Many first-timer "investors" are plunging their savings into new launches; the resale market which is dominated by the more experienced investors is facing strong resistance which has manifested itself as drastic drops in volume and increased incidence of lowering of asking prices
c. the pool of buyers in the market is being depleted quite quickly now
d. the "greed" level in the property market is hitting new highs
maybe bro samsara knows something we dont...
Bro, a lot depends on how the government fares in the next few years running up to the GE. The biggest risk in SG is political risk. There is a dearth of dedicated and passionate talent to fill the ranks in public office.
Public sentiment has become significantly more negative over the years and will unlikely improve unless there is an overhaul in how the government connects to the populace.
Singapore's success story is a miracle; can we repeat the same phenomenal growth over the next 40 years? Do we have a team today that has passion and calibre comparable to what the Lee Kuan Yew + Goh Keng Swee + Toh Chin Chye + Rajaratnam (etc) combination had?
How many truly talented Singaporeans are willing to sacrifice privacy and family time to take up the gauntlet and assume public office?
Bro Samsara
If prices really come down, which districts will u buy n why?
Do u go for CCR, RCR or OCR?
99/999/ freehold?
Or diversify?
Tks in advance!
Hi bro groggy,
My portfolio rebalancing is based on my own read of the market. There is no guarantee that it is 100% right. I still own the house that I am staying in as well as a commercial office unit. These are, IMO, adequate hedges for the upside scenario.
I feel the need to cater to the possible downside scenario by deleveraging, locking in my profits and reducing my exposure at this present moment due to changes in conditions in the macro environment.
Hi samsara,
The newly launched are about 10% to 20% higher than comparable subsales. If you sell 10% below market, those new launches have to go down 30% or more for you to be able to "profit" by buying back. Don't you think you might miss the boat if property prices just consolidate and move up again in 2 or 3 years time? You might be left with no property exposure.
Bro Samsara
Thank u for yr reply n sharing.
Very insightful indeed!
Cheers!
I thought those rush to sell Singapore properties are buying US property in cash. So I was wrong.
I am the very old fashion Chinese type: debt free.
Just fully paid up my HDB (happily noticed the legal fee was less than S$100);
Fully paid up my MM (wife is not working, so rental is her income).
These two are treated like my clothing or TV: price goes up or down is irrelevant to me.
The rest asset allocations are struggling with gold, stocks, unit trust and cash.
Thanks,
Richard
Like a knife, debt is a double-edged tool. It can provide benefits when it is used wisely. If it is misused, it becomes a lethal weapon. Its blade cuts both ways.
In today's context, mastery of debt equates mastery of financial investment because of several factors:
a. inflation chews (nowadays it chomps) away at the value of fiat currencies
b. leveraged arbitrage allows generation of income using monies borrowed at low-cost (almost free)
c. debt can enslave, it can also empower
Financial investment is a dance with the market. One needs to be agile, light-footed and adapt quickly to the tempo and gait of the dance partner.
I thought those rush to sell Singapore properties are buying US property in cash. So I was wrong.
I am the very old fashion Chinese type: debt free.
Just fully paid up my HDB (happily noticed the legal fee was less than S$100);
Fully paid up my MM (wife is not working, so rental is her income).
These two are treated like my clothing or TV: price goes up or down is irrelevant to me.
The rest asset allocations are struggling with gold, stocks, unit trust and cash.
Thanks,
Richard
devilplate
23-02-12, 08:13
I thought those rush to sell Singapore properties are buying US property in cash. So I was wrong.
I am the very old fashion Chinese type: debt free.
Just fully paid up my HDB (happily noticed the legal fee was less than S$100);
Fully paid up my MM (wife is not working, so rental is her income).
These two are treated like my clothing or TV: price goes up or down is irrelevant to me.
The rest asset allocations are struggling with gold, stocks, unit trust and cash.
Thanks,
Richard
looks like u duno wat to do wif ur spare cash and also preparing to retire.....hehe
Financial investment is a dance with the market. One needs to be agile, light-footed and adapt quickly to the tempo and gait of the dance partner.
"Like"
Partner is ah ben?
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 09:36
I don't think Government is going to make the kind of big massive changes that Teddybear was suggesting. I would rather assume that they will keep the situation now where PR still allowed to buy HDB, and BTO prices are not artifically kept low, but will continue to be guided by real resale HDB prices and the general market.
This means more measures are in store if the latest one didn't work. And on the HDB side, they are definitely going to up the supply as much as they can.
Just look at Dubai as the most obvious case. They tried to do exactly that, by giving subsidies and freebies to locals, and letting the foreigners come in and bid up the property to massive levels. When the property bubble burst there, everyone was hurt, because ultimately, the locals got into the act as well. How many would be happy with subsidied housing that won't go up if they see the foreigner participated property chiong up to the sky? They will all jump in too.
And when the property bubble burst in Dubai, the foreigners just left without paying while the locals are stuck because they can't leave. The banks have a deep hole because they lent so much for property, and Dubai had to be bailed out.
Singapore got no rich uncle to rely on to bail us out if a similar thing happen to us. I would rather not go down that route. Singapore is already becoming a more expensive place to live and stay. Just look at the latest COE prices.
However, is the kind of rate of increase sustainable? That's my biggest question. We don't live in a bubble. The competition is global. And Singapore is a small place and small market. The big boys can simply say Singapore is too expensive and choose to go elsewhere. They owe no loyalty to Singapore.
Scientists, engineers, managers. China, India can produce millions of these who will all be happy with the salaries that we already get for such professions here. And yet, these salaries must all go up! How to go up! But if they don't go up over the next 10 to 20 years, then how is property going to go up?
2000 psf means that even a 1000 sq foot place will cost 2 million. How much monthly salary need to earn to buy a property like that? And like I said, how are people's salary going to rise to that kind of level?
Or Singapore in future split into permanent 2 sides? The "lower mortals" who can only just get by and stay in subsidied housing with no hope ever of aspiring to higher? And a "higher mortal" side which include the rich foreigners who can and are able to afford 3 cars, multiple properties at 2000 psf?
You think the government will really allow us to reach that stage? Let's not forget that the majority of its voters are "lower mortals" who do not have multiple properties...
devilplate
23-02-12, 09:38
sian toking about COE......my new 3series oredi opened for booking lor.....ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 09:43
Hee, expensive cars is another example lor. You open the floodgates too much, then the people that will come are those that will not blink at buying a $200,000 car.
Are we going to say that only locals can drive car? But there are so many rich people out there in the world. And rich as in, those with the kind of money most people cannot imagine having.
Try telling a multi millionaire that he cannot buy even a BMW. Imagine what he would tell you? But Singapore already one of the places with the highest concentration of millinaires. If everyone has one million dollars, then one million dollars is nothing. But its just not possible to enable everyone to drive a car right?
And the multi millinaires, the billionaires. Those will not just have 1 car, they will have 5, or 10... or more...
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 09:47
I acutally don't think the property market here will crash despite what I am saying. But it could be that it will be difficult to see much gains for some time, maybe in the next ten years. We need to wait for the rest of the world to catch up.
Unless we are prepared to say that Singapore is going to be a millionaires playground only in future.
devilplate
23-02-12, 09:51
wun crash bcoz got so many CMs this cycle but i worry a slow long term downtrend.....every yr down 1-5% for like 5-10yrs? EEEEE
2000 psf means that even a 1000 sq foot place will cost 2 million. How much monthly salary need to earn to buy a property like that? And like I said, how are people's salary going to rise to that kind of level?
why not ? in my office I see a young couple not yet 30 both earning >10k a month before bonus. you have to admit there are ppl that are making this income.
The "lower mortals" who can only just get by and stay in subsidied housing with no hope ever of aspiring to higher? And a "higher mortal" side which include the rich foreigners who can and are able to afford 3 cars, multiple properties at 2000 psf?
what is so wrong about that ? 80% in subsidized housing, 20% who made it get the luxury. Why "with no hope ever" ? You make it, you get it. You do not make it, you do not get it. If some one with a 9 to 5 mundane job making 5k a month and is grumbling "no hope ever" for a condo dream, is the gov's job to make it happen ??
And why drag "rich foreigner" into this ? SG pty price today is not a result of foreign buying.
I find the tone of your analysis a very socialist one. In a capitalist model, the rich does get richer. In SG context, at least the smart ones in general have a better chance. Study well, get a good scholarship, you will be already on a successful path. There is always "hope" for those who try.
There have been many U-turns done in the last ten years: casinos (gaming), Singapore Grand Prix (racing), etc. The pioneer group of leaders opposed these because of the negative impact that they would have on society. The old guard believed that Singapore should be built upon a foundation pillared by ethics, integrity and moral values.
Moving into the 21st century, the world has changed tremendously. Moral values and ethics have given way to entertainment and sensual pleasures. There are occasional glimpses of the former but that is all they are - mere glimpses. The world now rotates around an axis of self - I, me, myself. The best selling phone for a while was the iPhone - the keyword underscoring the success is the single letter I.
The leaders of Singapore today recognise that by not pandering to what the world demands, especially now that we are so connected to the international arena, we would not be able to attract the deep-pocketed UHNWI and HNWI and the immense amounts of funds that they control - something that we need for continued economic growth of the nation.
Today the casinos are hallmarks of our embracing of the new world and the gold and glitter that it has to offer. The bottomline is now "why worry about moral values and ethics, having money is more important". That as long as the social fabric does not tear overnight, the introduction of vice to the general populace is not a major issue. The price that we are paying for economic growth has an intangible and almost invisible tag.
Singapore's leaders believe that money underscores everything. Every problem can be solved using money. Congestion on the roads, just raise the ERP rates. Not enough babies being born, incentivise would-be parents with baby bonuses. The message that is being drilled somewhat subconsciously into the minds of the people is "$$$$".
How can we lament the lack of graciousness when the root of graciousness (compassion) has been cast to one side in our educational processes? How can we complain about adult children abandoning their parents and pushing them to old folks homes when our young are tutored on mathematics and science 99% of the time and moral education is a cursory topic that does not warrant even 5 hours a week?
Perhaps I exaggerate but you see, we are seriously facing a talent shortage in public office. It is not rocket science that increasing tolls on roads would reduce road congestion. However, it takes a lot more grey matter to recognise that the congestion has underlying roots in insufficient capacity (too much demand, too little infrastructure supply).
So we spend $1.1b to buy a few more buses. Has anyone wondered if our existing road network can support the extra 800 buses plying the routes non-stop daily? Oh yes, higher ERP rates should get at least 1,600 cars off the road so that there is sufficient road-space for these buses.
We cannot draw true talent using $$$ alone. It does not work that way. Passion and calibre do not sit around waiting for a million-dollar ministerial job to come by. Passion to serve in public office has to be inculcated and nurtured in the young; it does not just happen overnight.
A luxury city-state with beautiful edifices and impeccably clean streets, teeming with cutting-edge technology and offering a decadent lifestyle (yes, decadent has actually become a positive word today) - Singapore in 2020 is a UHWNI and HWNI paradise. The only thing missing is her soul.
I acutally don't think the property market here will crash despite what I am saying. But it could be that it will be difficult to see much gains for some time, maybe in the next ten years. We need to wait for the rest of the world to catch up.
Unless we are prepared to say that Singapore is going to be a millionaires playground only in future.
Sam,
is a nice read...Cheers!
samsara
That is a very profound piece of writing there. Worthy of being in national newspapers (but not sure if the editor would print it due to the political references....)
Thank you so much for sharing your deep reflections with us on this forum. We are privileged. :not-worthy:
{"your England very strong"}
Thanks for sharing your thought, samsara.
:o
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 13:39
Very interesting reply Samsara. And I would agree. But no matter how much money is involved. At the end of the day, when elections are up, that millionaire gets the same number of votes as any other Singaporean - 1 vote.
The pressures are already here. Will they allow it to get that much worse? Public service means you don't just think about the millionaires, you have to think for the man on the street too (the ones that actually use public transport).
Housing is a very public topic because it close to most people's heart. Here in Singapore, we regard having housing as a basic right. It is not considered a luxury. So, like it or not, they can't only choose to cater to the rich where housing is concerned.
Here in Singapore, we regard having housing as a basic right. It is not considered a luxury.
This right is already given. HDB for 80% of the people. Why are you still complaining ?
I'm not following your argument.
I thought your main complaint was this :
..stay in subsidied housing with no hope ever of aspiring to higher?
sian toking about COE......my new 3series oredi opened for booking lor.....ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Incidentally I just came back from Mercedes Benz. Accompanied my friend to PML yesterday as he wanted to buy the 328i. In the end, walk over to Mercedes today and booked the E200 instead :D Great offer from Merc. Competition is good!
A luxury city-state with beautiful edifices and impeccably clean streets, teeming with cutting-edge technology and offering a decadent lifestyle (yes, decadent has actually become a positive word today) - Singapore in 2020 is a UHWNI and HWNI paradise. The only thing missing is her soul.
You are overly pessimistic.
I'm inclined to think this society is not getting worse by the day. The spirit of this society is not all about money. Neither is this government. To say "gov just thinks $$$ to solve a problem" is way overly simplistic. The infamous transportation issue, flooding issue, etc. Gov is trying. You only see as if "gov is just spending money to solve". It's so far from the truth. It only gets a sensational applause from oppositions. The gov is really trying to find solutions. But we all should know this is not at all easy. It's not as if there is a solution so blatantly available and of all ppl the ivy league scholars of gov are simply blind. (not that I think scholars are super competent. they are most definitely not stupid. and it will be an insult to say they are all money minded. I know a lot who are real passionate.) For example, 800 buses, who will drive them ? no singaporean wants to be a driver, we will end up having 800 more PRC drivers for sure. I can already imagine the spin ppl will bring along this topic.
... anyway this is getting political. way off topic already. GE is over so let's have peace...
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:00
Actually no. What I am trying to drive at is that the current HDB market is influenced by what happens to the rest of the property market as a whole. It does not exist in a bubble by itself. I believe the government is unlikely to change that.
And since that won't change, then all the earlier points made about the sustianability of big rises in the property market based on the average income levels of Singaporeans then remain invalid.
So far, the biggest solution offered is to decouple the HDB market from the private property market. Keep public housing cheap forever, let in the foreigners to bid up the private property market to whatever levels we want. Yes, nice try. I will believe it when I see it implemented and announced. Until then, that is wishful thinking.
In fact, I am not even sure I want to see that implemented. It is a simple brute force way of solving a complex social problem. It is not going to be so clear cut and straight forward in practise.
There have been many U-turns done in the last ten years: casinos (gaming), Singapore Grand Prix (racing), etc. The pioneer group of leaders opposed these because of the negative impact that they would have on society. The old guard believed that Singapore should be built upon a foundation pillared by ethics, integrity and moral values.
Moving into the 21st century, the world has changed tremendously. Moral values and ethics have given way to entertainment and sensual pleasures. There are occasional glimpses of the former but that is all they are - mere glimpses. The world now rotates around an axis of self - I, me, myself. The best selling phone for a while was the iPhone - the keyword underscoring the success is the single letter I.
The leaders of Singapore today recognise that by not pandering to what the world demands, especially now that we are so connected to the international arena, we would not be able to attract the deep-pocketed UHNWI and HNWI and the immense amounts of funds that they control - something that we need for continued economic growth of the nation.
Today the casinos are hallmarks of our embracing of the new world and the gold and glitter that it has to offer. The bottomline is now "why worry about moral values and ethics, having money is more important". That as long as the social fabric does not tear overnight, the introduction of vice to the general populace is not a major issue. The price that we are paying for economic growth has an intangible and almost invisible tag.
Singapore's leaders believe that money underscores everything. Every problem can be solved using money. Congestion on the roads, just raise the ERP rates. Not enough babies being born, incentivise would-be parents with baby bonuses. The message that is being drilled somewhat subconsciously into the minds of the people is "$$$$".
How can we lament the lack of graciousness when the root of graciousness (compassion) has been cast to one side in our educational processes? How can we complain about adult children abandoning their parents and pushing them to old folks homes when our young are tutored on mathematics and science 99% of the time and moral education is a cursory topic that does not warrant even 5 hours a week?
Perhaps I exaggerate but you see, we are seriously facing a talent shortage in public office. It is not rocket science that increasing tolls on roads would reduce road congestion. However, it takes a lot more grey matter to recognise that the congestion has underlying roots in insufficient capacity (too much demand, too little infrastructure supply).
So we spend $1.1b to buy a few more buses. Has anyone wondered if our existing road network can support the extra 800 buses plying the routes non-stop daily? Oh yes, higher ERP rates should get at least 1,600 cars off the road so that there is sufficient road-space for these buses.
We cannot draw true talent using $$$ alone. It does not work that way. Passion and calibre do not sit around waiting for a million-dollar ministerial job to come by. Passion to serve in public office has to be inculcated and nurtured in the young; it does not just happen overnight.
A luxury city-state with beautiful edifices and impeccably clean streets, teeming with cutting-edge technology and offering a decadent lifestyle (yes, decadent has actually become a positive word today) - Singapore in 2020 is a UHWNI and HWNI paradise. The only thing missing is her soul.
Well said. Very good points and observations raised by both of you :cheers4:
Bro - good piece and effort.
It's good to hear that some see things in a similar way.
But 'trade-offs' have been decided by our mandate given to the rulers of the day...
I also agree with you on cutting down risk during this period ...I guess it's linked to how much is enough and sleeping soundly at night...in Investment there's always tomorrow if you know what you're doing...
[quote=samsara]There have been many U-turns done in the last ten years: casinos (gaming), Singapore Grand Prix (racing), etc. The pioneer group of leaders opposed these because of the negative impact that they would have on society. The old guard believed that Singapore should be built upon a foundation pillared by ethics, integrity and moral values.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:09
Here's one possible scenario that might happen for the popular solution that keeps on getting mentioned. Say you do a special announcement. From today onwards, all HDB flast built by government will only cost $150k now max and forever, and only Singaporeans can buy. PR not allowed to buy.
The next day, HDB resale prices will plunge. Everyone who can get out will try and get out and switch to a private property instead. Because if we want to shell out so much for a property, we want it to be something that has a chacne to go up, not something that is going to stay 150k forever.
Overnight, Singapore splits into 2 classes. The 80% stuck in HDB who has jsut seen their net worth shrink massively overnight. The 20% who managed to have a private property in their name overnight has seen their wealth double. And you have the 3rd group of people. Displaced PR from HDB flats who can no longer afford private property who now either go back to their home country, or rent at super high prices.
I would like to see who wins the next general election goes if this came through. Like I said. Simple solutions are sometimes not so simple. It may not turn out the way you think it will.
... let in the foreigners to bid up the private property market to whatever levels we want...
again this is completely false. SG market level today is not a result of relentless foreign buying. I do not understand your resentment of foreigners.
In particular, I find it completely irrelevant to compare with Dubai. I have intimate knowledge of Dubai business. What happened there has very very little resemblance of what's happening here. The context is hugely different.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:13
I bear no animosity to foreigners at all. But one poster implied that Singapore's average salaries did not need to go up much because foreign buying can do all the heavy lifting, and that in itself is all that is needed to drive up the property market over the next 10 years.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:17
If we assume that foreign buying and foreigners have zero impact on Singapore's property market (debatable). Then my very first opening post and all the points raised then become in need of consideration. Because if foreign buying is not the key determinant of Singapore's property prices, or its growth going forward. Then I believe that future property price growth will then lie on the growth of the average incomes of Singaporeans.
And as my first opening post pointed out. We are already at the current level where it is already one of the highest in the world. And we can only getting more expensive while other countries are sliding backwards. So, how is this sustinable? And if its not sustainable, then how is another 100% upside in property over the next 10 years possible either?
.. all HDB flast built by government will only cost $150k now max and forever, and only Singaporeans can buy. PR not allowed to buy.
So you know it's not so simple to "keep HDB price low", as demanded by many ppl today (and in the GE) ?
The gov's idea of "HDB as an appreciating asset" is still being tested. I'm not genius, I cannot tell if such idea is workable. The very meaning of "appreciating asset" implies HDB prices HAVE TO go up over the years. The gov is trying to find the way to regulate the growth.
During GE, one very loud proposal is exactly what you said above. "HDB should be priced at building cost".
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:23
Correct. I don't believe the solution is so simple. That's why my opening post did not even mention this point. But it was raised as a counter argument during the thread that I didn't need to consider any of such "sustainability" because all government has to do, is to make HDB affordable permanently, by permanently decoupling the two housing markets and bam we have a solution.
I definitely don't agree that it is so easy to solve the problem. People often don't consider all the different angles and possible repurcussions and jump in on an easy solution. Things are never that straight forward.
. how is this sustainable? .
pty prices of course will have cycles. it does not need to be "sustainable".
but 10ys later I bet the price of CCR pties will be higher than now.
it doesn't change anything in the context of HDB.
So you are saying govt owe everyone in Singapore an affordable and cheap private property because it is their basic right? :o :scared-1:
I just can't see how that can be achieve unless you advocate go back to communism? Everyone get same thing? :banghead:
Very interesting reply Samsara. And I would agree. But no matter how much money is involved. At the end of the day, when elections are up, that millionaire gets the same number of votes as any other Singaporean - 1 vote.
The pressures are already here. Will they allow it to get that much worse? Public service means you don't just think about the millionaires, you have to think for the man on the street too (the ones that actually use public transport).
Housing is a very public topic because it close to most people's heart. Here in Singapore, we regard having housing as a basic right. It is not considered a luxury. So, like it or not, they can't only choose to cater to the rich where housing is concerned.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:31
It does have to be sustainable. At one point, the Japan property market was in a huge bubble. I was told it took 2 to 3 generations to pay off one housing loan. It crashed and never did quite come back.
Singapore is not in a bubble yet, not quite. But the Japan example shows that it definitely has to be sustainale, else it will just all come crashing down.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:33
Teddybear, look at Singapore. The earlier generation of leaders have been wildly successful. They have created a country where over 90% of the people have their own house. So, when you have reached such a stage, and people treat housing as a basic right, how do you go back? You can't.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:39
The next generation, the young adults. They look at their parents. Teachers, Engineers, some without a graduate degree was able to buy homes, condos, and see those appreciate hundreds of thousands of dollars.
They have studied hard, they graduated well. They are now in a profesional job. Will they expect to be able to obtain what their parents could? Yes, and more than that because their expectations will now be even higher!
Housing is not a given right, but you would be forgiven thinking it was one in Singapore simply because more than 90% already have a house.
They have studied hard, they graduated well. They are now in a profesional job. Will they expect to be able to obtain what their parents could? Yes, and more than that because their expectations will now be even higher!
NO they will NOT get what they want.
They will however get their HDB at a price where they still need to work.
why ? when a country goes from 3rd world to 1st, the growth 1st stage is always exponential. That means whoever living in that stage will see, and get, the most dramatic gain.
And the subsequent generation will NOT get this. This is a simple fact, the younger generation has to face it. You will NOT have the "easy" life as your parents so to speak. (Not that I implied the earlier life was "easy". It was a 3rd world country remember ?)
You are not the only one thinking along this line. I've met many. You can find the same sentiment in China. The graduates in 1990-2000 in China reaped the most benefits of the explosive growth then. The houses they bought then had appreciated more than 5 times. The same graduates coming out now are all lamenting "the good days are over".
once the price reaches stratosphere level, it will crash down to earth , no doubt there....and when time is right again, real estate price will rise up...nothing new here, history will repeat itself again and again...:2cents:
The way you are saying is you go 1 big round and still don't have any idea what is good and what is best and why then blaming the foreigners for the high private property prices? Who are the ones buying WaterTown at $1400 psf? Who are the ones buying Bedok Residences at $1500 psf? Didn't you hear that they are about >90% singapore citizens? :doh:
Keep HDB price cheap you say cannot?
Let HDB price rise you say cannot?
You say every citizen believe they have basic housing right? Isn't BTO HDB flat already given to every citizen at very cheap price compared to resale HDB flats? You don't want resale HDB flats to be high? Then how to make every citizen has valuable asset which they can monetize for retirement when they are >65 years old?
Are you full of contradictions? :confused:
And you then expect govt to provide every citizen a cheap private property? Yes can, I have a very easy solution for MND Minister. Ban the word "HDB flats" and from now on all HDB flats are called "private flats"! Problem solved? Just discarding the word "reservists" and can only "Operationally Ready NS men"? :p
Correct. I don't believe the solution is so simple. That's why my opening post did not even mention this point. But it was raised as a counter argument during the thread that I didn't need to consider any of such "sustainability" because all government has to do, is to make HDB affordable permanently, by permanently decoupling the two housing markets and bam we have a solution.
I definitely don't agree that it is so easy to solve the problem. People often don't consider all the different angles and possible repurcussions and jump in on an easy solution. Things are never that straight forward.
why ? when a country goes from 3rd world to 1st, the growth in the 1st stage is always exponential. That means whoever living in that stage will see, and get, the most dramatic gain.
And the subsequent generation will NOT get this.
as a proxy, you can look at Temasek's assets. It grows exponentially over the past few decades. Is it really because the people were so smart running it ? Of course not. It gets such growth simply because it's at that history stage. It's the same. Now as we are maturing to a (close to) 1st world economy, such growth will not be repeated for sure.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:53
NO they will NOT get what they want.
They will however get their HDB at a price where they still need to work.
why ? when a country goes from 3rd world to 1st, the growth 1st stage is always exponential. That means whoever living in that stage will see, and get, the most dramatic gain.
And the subsequent generation will NOT get this. This is a simple fact, the younger generation has to face it. You will NOT have the "easy" life as your parents so to speak. (Not that I implied the earlier life was "easy". It was a 3rd world country remember ?)
You are not the only one thinking along this line. I've met many. You can find the same sentiment in China. The graduates in 1990-2000 in China reaped the most benefits of the explosive growth then. The houses they bought then had appreciated more than 5 times. The same graduates coming out now are all lamenting "the good days are over".
Correct. Realistically speaking, it is not going to quite so easy anymore. Many will be disappointed. But people live on hope, and so, govt cannot go right out and tell them the brutal truth, that many will end up disappointed because today, we are a 1st world country and the competition is different, everything is different.
(BTW, I am not a graduate. But I see and hear the lament of many a graduate these days so I know how they feel).
Why you keep harping on the young generation must be able to buy a condo? Who guarantee them a condo? :doh:
Isn't it good to keep their expectations high and alive? Otherwise how to compete in this world? They are not competing just with others in Singapore but everybody in the world in this mobile and globalized world! If everything so easily achievable where got fighting spirit to improve further? :beats-me-man:
The next generation, the young adults. They look at their parents. Teachers, Engineers, some without a graduate degree was able to buy homes, condos, and see those appreciate hundreds of thousands of dollars.
They have studied hard, they graduated well. They are now in a profesional job. Will they expect to be able to obtain what their parents could? Yes, and more than that because their expectations will now be even higher!
Housing is not a given right, but you would be forgiven thinking it was one in Singapore simply because more than 90% already have a house.
Bro - you are very right on this...
It's like when there is a super-bull market ...any 'idiot' can take a dart and throw some money and make many times his initial investment.
Being there at the right time and place works wonders...Forest Gump school of investing...
as a proxy, you can look at Temasek's assets. It grows exponentially over the past few decades. Is it really because the people were so smart running it ? Of course not. It gets such growth simply because it's at that history stage. It's the same. Now as we are maturing to a (close to) 1st world economy, such growth will not be repeated for sure.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 14:58
The way you are saying is you go 1 big round and still don't have any idea what is good and what is best and why then blaming the foreigners for the high private property prices? Who are the ones buying WaterTown at $1400 psf? Who are the ones buying Bedok Residences at $1500 psf? Didn't you hear that they are about >90% singapore citizens? :doh:
Keep HDB price cheap you say cannot?
Let HDB price rise you say cannot?
You say every citizen believe they have basic housing right? Isn't BTO HDB flat already given to every citizen at very cheap price compared to resale HDB flats? You don't want resale HDB flats to be high? Then how to make every citizen has valuable asset which they can monetize for retirement when they are >65 years old?
Are you full of contradictions? :confused:
And you then expect govt to provide every citizen a cheap private property? Yes can, I have a very easy solution for MND Minister. Ban the word "HDB flats" and from now on all HDB flats are called "private flats"! Problem solved? Just discarding the word "reservists" and can only "Operationally Ready NS men"? :p
I am just raising some issues which I think simple solutions sometimes ignore. Its not so straight forward. Its a complex problem. Actually, I don't envy KBW for his job. Its a tough one, and the problem itself is a complex one which is not easy to solve.
This is also why, even though Singapore has many things going for it, but because we have already come so far and reached the current stage where we are quite expensive already, so I question if the property market can keep on going up over the next 10 years.
Thus my view is that we are more likely to see very slow growth or close to zero growth in property prices over the next ten years.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 15:05
Bro - you are very right on this...
It's like when there is a super-bull market ...any 'idiot' can take a dart and throw some money and make many times his initial investment.
Being there at the right time and place works wonders...Forest Gump school of investing...
That's true, but you still have to make it such that the conditions for that kind of super bull market is there. Where countries are concerned, there are more than 200 countries in the world, only a handful has experienced the kind of super bull run growth in economy, living conditions and standards which Singapore has, and only in that kind of situation will you have a situation where everything is growing so much even a idiot can throw dart and make many times his initial investment.
That time is now over. We are not near the top of the pile already. Others are copying us, or trying to leap frog us. The competition is global and much more intense. Sticking to doing just the same things won't work anymore.
Hence the asumption just buy any property and hold it for ten years and you sure make money. That is a very flawed assumption in itself as well! :)
I am just raising some issues which I think simple solutions sometimes ignore. Its not so straight forward. Its a complex problem. Actually, I don't envy KBW for his job. Its a tough one, and the problem itself is a complex one which is not easy to solve.
This is also why, even though Singapore has many things going for it, but because we have already come so far and reached the current stage where we are quite expensive already, so I question if the property market can keep on going up over the next 10 years.
Thus my view is that we are more likely to see very slow growth or close to zero growth in property prices over the next ten years.
Actually ... what is the problem ah?
I don't see any problem, market forces will decide. At the moment it seems carrot heads are driving the market.
devilplate
23-02-12, 15:06
anyway no worries la.....govt this round very kiasu kiasi liao.....so many CMs within 2.5yrs hor.....
cm5 practically stop hot monies flowing into residential sector liao wat.....it is not like govt is doing nothing to prevent a big bubble rite?
if u tink no more 100% ppty growth in future, sell now and invest in other 3rd world countries lor like our bro samsara did.....but dun ask me where....i aso duno....wakakakaa
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 15:07
If its just let market forces decide, then government won't have to implement what 5? 6 cooling measures up till now already. Just let market forces decide right?
Its precisely because if only allow market forces to decide, it will create serious imbalances and problems in Singapore, which is why they have had so many rounds of CM.
devilplate
23-02-12, 15:07
Actually ... what is the problem ah?
I don't see any problem, market forces will decide. At the moment it seems carrot heads are driving the market.
exactly wat i tot too!
wats the problem? oredi got cm5!!! foreigner wall of defence oredi set up wat....still scare foreigner push up further meh? 10% absd....let them buy la.....wakakakakkakaka
devilplate
23-02-12, 15:09
If its just let market forces decide, then government won't have to implement what 5? 6 cooling measures up till now already. Just let market forces decide right?
Its precisely because if only allow market forces to decide, it will create serious imbalances and problems in Singapore, which is why they have had so many rounds of CM.
so u oredi know govt r controlling our ppty px.....den wats ur motivation of setting up this thread???
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 15:13
anyway no worries la.....govt this round very kiasu kiasi liao.....so many CMs within 2.5yrs hor.....
cm5 practically stop hot monies flowing into residential sector liao wat.....it is not like govt is doing nothing to prevent a big bubble rite?
if u tink no more 100% ppty growth in future, sell now and invest in other 3rd world countries lor like our bro samsara did.....but dun ask me where....i aso duno....wakakakaa
No la. I won't do that. Very dangerous to invest into property in a country you are not familiar with. Not every country is like Singapore. In fact, it seems like countries that go through the kind of rapid urbanisation and growth which make property chiong up so much within such a short time are not that common.
I will stick to stocks and unit trusts, at least those I understand better. :)
Property here, I will wait more. I think it should take a breather before going to the next level. So, when it takes that breather, then I look for some bargains then. Just not yet.
The next generation, the young adults. They look at their parents. Teachers, Engineers, some without a graduate degree was able to buy homes, condos, and see those appreciate hundreds of thousands of dollars.
They have studied hard, they graduated well. They are now in a profesional job. Will they expect to be able to obtain what their parents could? Yes, and more than that because their expectations will now be even higher!
Housing is not a given right, but you would be forgiven thinking it was one in Singapore simply because more than 90% already have a house.
Obtaining a scholarship and graduating with a degree doesn't mean everything.
I'm 24, and I didn't do well for my studies at all. I still managed to pay for my investment property and when i compare myself to my peers now, many are still studying, spending their parent's money, "borrowing" $$ from their parents for their BTO down payment etc.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 15:14
so u oredi know govt r controlling our ppty px.....den wats ur motivation of setting up this thread???
Talk about property market lor! :) This is a property forum mah. So I set up the thread to voice my opinion on the property market lor. Its an indirect way of saying I am rather cautious on the current property market la. :ashamed1:
devilplate
23-02-12, 15:15
No la. I won't do that. Very dangerous to invest into property in a country you are not familiar with. Not every country is like Singapore. In fact, it seems like countries that go through the kind of rapid urbanisation and growth which make property chiong up so much within such a short time are not that common.
I will stick to stocks and unit trusts, at least those I understand better. :)
Property here, I will wait more. I think it should take a breather before going to the next level. So, when it takes that breather, then I look for some bargains then. Just not yet.
fair enough.....
actually this thread title abit like not so appropriate rite dun u tink?
if dun haf any CM, den this thread will be very relevant.....
If its just let market forces decide, then government won't have to implement what 5? 6 cooling measures up till now already. Just let market forces decide right?
Its precisely because if only allow market forces to decide, it will create serious imbalances and problems in Singapore, which is why they have had so many rounds of CM.
Yah so...? thru CMs banks are already protected, gahmen already score political points, so many warnings issued from MBT to KBW, CM after CM. What else can one expect?
I don't see a problem.
I am just raising some issues which I think simple solutions sometimes ignore. Its not so straight forward. Its a complex problem. Actually, I don't envy KBW for his job. Its a tough one, and the problem itself is a complex one which is not easy to solve.
This is also why, even though Singapore has many things going for it, but because we have already come so far and reached the current stage where we are quite expensive already, so I question if the property market can keep on going up over the next 10 years.
Thus my view is that we are more likely to see very slow growth or close to zero growth in property prices over the next ten years.
China has also decided to sing the same tune....Wen Jiabao is going to signal slower growth next month.....I somehow agree with you that ppty price has appreciated much faster than income growth. In fact, I have been holding on to this view since 2007.....
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 15:18
Ah, but seems like even with all the CM, property prices still creeping up! See all the new launches, going for 1200 psf even in far away places like Pungol. So, in that context, the thread title is relevant mah. How is this kind of property uptrend sustainable? :)
devilplate
23-02-12, 15:19
Talk about property market lor! :) This is a property forum mah. So I set up the thread to voice my opinion on the property market lor. Its an indirect way of saying I am rather cautious on the current property market la. :ashamed1:
gd tat u clarify....
bcoz i believe many bros here got confused......
so its more like u r voicing out ur personal opinion tat ppty in SG will hf limited growth and higher risk of correcting going forward.....
ppty px definitely limited one la.....govt cfm plus chop intro more herbal tea into the market if prices rise up ......govt prolly can only tolerate 1% growth per qtr from now.....
devilplate
23-02-12, 15:23
Ah, but seems like even with all the CM, property prices still creeping up! See all the new launches, going for 1200 psf even in far away places like Pungol. So, in that context, the thread title is relevant mah. How is this kind of property uptrend sustainable? :)
dun worry la...as i mentioned if px rise too fast again, expect more herbal tea.....hehehehe
one project alone dun make up the whole ppty market la.....y u dun mention parc vera.....8xx-9xxpsf in D19 but sales lukewarm nia.....
dun worry la...as i mentioned if px rise too fast again, expect more herbal tea.....hehehehe
one project alone dun make up the whole ppty market la.....y u dun mention parc vera.....8xx-9xxpsf in D19 but sales lukewarm nia.....
Location is still key! look at boathouse, parc vera and riversound..
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 15:27
Sometimes I still worry that the problem is not that government has not introduced 5 CMs. The problem is that humans get greedy, and ignore fundamentals. All they see is that property market keep on going up, and lots of dollar signs.
So, all the cooling measures introduced liao, but people just ignore. After a while, they convinced themselves that no matter what government do, pproperty prices can only go one direction ... up! And end up, they will create a bubble. And on the other sides, government, in trying to prevent that bubble, will overdo the CM.
Then, when the last person who willing to buy in at that kind of silly prices have bought, and the crash finally comes, it will be a big and bad one... :(
Then they still blame Govt lor ...but you're absolutely correct..
Johnny-come-lately coz they see their peers laughing everyday ...always happens
Sometimes I still worry that the problem is not that government has not introduced 5 CMs. The problem is that humans get greedy, and ignore fundamentals. All they see is that property market keep on going up, and lots of dollar signs.
So, all the cooling measures introduced liao, but people just ignore. After a while, they convinced themselves that no matter what government do, pproperty prices can only go one direction ... up! And end up, they will create a bubble. And on the other sides, government, in trying to prevent that bubble, will overdo the CM.
Then, when the last person who willing to buy in at that kind of silly prices have bought, and the crash finally comes, it will be a big and bad one... :(
The CMs must be given time to work. There are signs of fatigue in the market already. There are many examples... here's one... The Cascadia 100+ units empty, imagine freehold, Bukit Timah, future MRT, good schools..... etc.
You may think I am cold but why should I worry about these people who refuse to read warning signs?
Sometimes I still worry that the problem is not that government has not introduced 5 CMs. The problem is that humans get greedy, and ignore fundamentals. All they see is that property market keep on going up, and lots of dollar signs.
So, all the cooling measures introduced liao, but people just ignore. After a while, they convinced themselves that no matter what government do, pproperty prices can only go one direction ... up! And end up, they will create a bubble. And on the other sides, government, in trying to prevent that bubble, will overdo the CM.
Then, when the last person who willing to buy in at that kind of silly prices have bought, and the crash finally comes, it will be a big and bad one... :(
"Focus on the fundamentals" <- this works in every situation. One of the reasons why there is so much fire-fighting in the various areas which have suddenly become so visible lately is that the fundamentals have been ignored for far too long. The measures that have been thrown up so far have been more reactive than pro-active. They treat symptoms than target the actual malady. Taking paracetamol to artificial reduce the fever is not going to cure the viral infection.
What puzzles me is the nonchalant approach that the Ivy League scholars are taking towards the issues that are popping up. One problem pops up and they conjure up a band-aid to tackle the problem. Problem-solving boo-boos aside, have they not learned that the citizenry today is no longer the generation of quiet and obedient followers? The outpour of angst and frustration online is a manifestation of the lack of engagement by the younger generation who want to be heard.
Tap on that energy and harness it, convert it into a positive thing.
Focus on the fundamentals - do not worry about winning votes. Focus on the aspects of living that will allow the citizenry to live peacefully and discover a deeper meaning of life than working their whole lives for money. Instil in the young (and hopefully even the adults) moral values and compassion, help them develop wisdom so that they are able to help and guide one another. With the internet as a boundless source of information, keeping the masses ignorant is passe and no longer works.
以德服人 - virtue and benevolence move the hearts of people
You are overly pessimistic.
I'm inclined to think this society is not getting worse by the day. The spirit of this society is not all about money. Neither is this government. To say "gov just thinks $$$ to solve a problem" is way overly simplistic. The infamous transportation issue, flooding issue, etc. Gov is trying. You only see as if "gov is just spending money to solve". It's so far from the truth. It only gets a sensational applause from oppositions. The gov is really trying to find solutions. But we all should know this is not at all easy. It's not as if there is a solution so blatantly available and of all ppl the ivy league scholars of gov are simply blind. (not that I think scholars are super competent. they are most definitely not stupid. and it will be an insult to say they are all money minded. I know a lot who are real passionate.) For example, 800 buses, who will drive them ? no singaporean wants to be a driver, we will end up having 800 more PRC drivers for sure. I can already imagine the spin ppl will bring along this topic.
... anyway this is getting political. way off topic already. GE is over so let's have peace...
So... what are you saying?... the current CMs should have been in place since 2006?
"Focus on the fundamentals" <- this works in every situation. One of the reasons why there is so much fire-fighting in the various areas which have suddenly become so visible lately is that the fundamentals have been ignored for far too long. The measures that have been thrown up so far have been more reactive than pro-active. They treat symptoms than target the actual malady. Taking paracetamol to artificial reduce the fever is not going to cure the viral infection.
What puzzles me is the nonchalant approach that the Ivy League scholars are taking towards the issues that are popping up. One problem pops up and they conjure up a band-aid to tackle the problem. Problem-solving boo-boos aside, have they not learned that the citizenry today is no longer the generation of quiet and obedient followers? The outpour of angst and frustration online is a manifestation of the lack of engagement by the younger generation who want to be heard.
Tap on that energy and harness it, convert it into a positive thing.
Focus on the fundamentals - do not worry about winning votes. Focus on the aspects of living that will allow the citizenry to live peacefully and discover a deeper meaning of life than working their whole lives for money. Instil in the young (and hopefully even the adults) moral values and compassion, help them develop wisdom so that they are able to help and guide one another. With the internet as a boundless source of information, keeping the masses ignorant is passe and no longer works.
以德服人 - virtue and benevolence moves the heart of people
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 15:55
I like the way you think Samsara. But to be fair, the leaders today don't have an easier job than the leaders in the past. The leaders in the past could look at other countries which are further along the development path and see the mistakes they made.
What the people wanted back then was also simpler. Food, jobs, housing, education, and security were the top objectives. And people were less individualistic then.
Today, with many of the basic needs satisfied, what the people want has become a lot more varied. Today's people are more complex, and more individualistic also. And since we are now at the top, its harder to look around globally to see who we can learn. We need to forge ahead ourselves. That is scary, difficult and fraught with risks.
Today, you implement something. People know how to complain and make themselves heard. And somehow somewhere, they will always be one group of people whom were offended by what you did.
devilplate
23-02-12, 15:58
Sometimes I still worry that the problem is not that government has not introduced 5 CMs. The problem is that humans get greedy, and ignore fundamentals. All they see is that property market keep on going up, and lots of dollar signs.
So, all the cooling measures introduced liao, but people just ignore. After a while, they convinced themselves that no matter what government do, pproperty prices can only go one direction ... up! And end up, they will create a bubble. And on the other sides, government, in trying to prevent that bubble, will overdo the CM.
Then, when the last person who willing to buy in at that kind of silly prices have bought, and the crash finally comes, it will be a big and bad one... :(
there r many other stuff for u to worry about lor....
y not u worry more about those old folks wif no $$.....their kids ditch them....no luck in applying for a rental flat.....perhaps we shd contribute more to the society by doing more volunteering work instead of worry this and tat in front of the PC?
CMs are band-aids. They target the symptoms but do not tackle the underlying ailment. The policy-makers, with their asset enhancement policies, have basically painted themselves into a corner. The majority of the population hold a significant percentage of their wealth in the value of the properties that they own. Singaporeans have been shaped through these policies to think that properties are the best form of wealth-generation. This is the key reason why even the young today are jumping into the property market like lemmings, borrowing heavily from their parents to make the downpayments.
The closest I have seen the policy-makers done so far to reduce the momentum of this trend is the Enhanced Lease Buyback Scheme in the Singapore Budget 2012 - an early attempt to wean the populace (starting off with the elderly who are the most affected by the asset enhancement policies of the early years) off the dependence on properties as a source of retirement funds. Much more needs to be done to wean the rest of the populace off this dependence without creating damaging shockwaves.
So... what are you saying?... the current CMs should have been in place since 2006?
devilplate
23-02-12, 16:00
lets be more optismistic and lead a fulfilling life!
reach out and help the less fortunate from today ;)
It may be a little too late but had education focused as much on filial piety as trigonometry, these adult children would likely have been conditioned to care for their aged parents. We cannot reverse time and then teach these adult children the right values but what we can do is to instil the right values in the young today so that the aged parents of tomorrow will not be forsaken.
there r many other stuff for u to worry about lor....
y not u worry more about those old folks wif no $$.....their kids ditch them....no luck in applying for a rental flat.....perhaps we shd contribute more to the society by doing more volunteering work instead of worry this and tat in front of the PC?
So, are you saying that properties are not the best form of wealth-generation?
CMs are band-aids. They target the symptoms but do not tackle the underlying ailment. The policy-makers, with their asset enhancement policies, have basically painted themselves into a corner. The majority of the population hold a significant percentage of their wealth in the value of the properties that they own. Singaporeans have been shaped through these policies to think that properties are the best form of wealth-generation. This is the key reason why even the young today are jumping into the property market like lemmings, borrowing heavily from their parents to make the downpayments.
The closest I have seen the policy-makers done so far to reduce the momentum of this trend is the Enhanced Lease Buyback Scheme in the Singapore Budget 2012 - an early attempt to wean the populace (starting off with the elderly who are the most affected by the asset enhancement policies of the early years) off the dependence on properties as a source of retirement funds. Much more needs to be done to wean the rest of the populace off this dependence without creating damaging shockwaves.
The policy-makers, with their asset enhancement policies, have basically painted themselves into a corner.
in short u r against the asset enhancement policies.
I cannot say I agree with you on this topic.
This asset enhancement program does help a lot of people.
It's very easy to say this and that is wrong. it's much more difficult to find what the other alternative is.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 16:07
Some of the things holding people back is also legacy.
Take for example our huge foreign reserves. Its great to have built up so much. But there is such a thing as saving too much. But the problem is how to spend some of it wisely. How to distribute part of it wisely while still being able to keep it at a level which is more than sufficient for Singapore.
We usually keep within budget. So, every year, we end up slightly positive, and another 1 billion goes into our foreign reserves. Its already 100b? 200b? Let's assume its 200b. You are adding 1b to that every year, and 200b itself is also growing. Even assuming they are being more conservative, and only achieve 5% per annum.
At that rate, you will have nearly 600b by the end of another 20 years. Honestly speaking, do we need so much money stashed away? What kind of rainy day, catasrophere, global depression, etc is going to need even a fraction of that kind of money.
Look at the 2008 Lehman Brother's crisis. Something that hit the whole world, brought it into recession (including us), crashed markets 50%, and did we even take out much? We didn't. And we repaid it all back within 3 years.
I know its the hard work and savings built up by everyone before this, and contributed to by current tax payers even now. But there really is such a thing as too much savings. But its a legacy thing, and so, we will continue to build and build an even bigger and bigger foreign reserve. :beats-me-man:
devilplate
23-02-12, 16:08
It may be a little too late but had education focused as much on filial piety as trigonometry, these adult children would likely have been conditioned to care for their aged parents. We cannot reverse time and then teach these adult children the right values but what we can do is to instil the right values in the young today so that the aged parents of tomorrow will not be forsaken.
i am a nobody.....cannot influence the younger generation.....but wat we ALL can do is to help out the less fortunate now
LETS DO IT! ;)
Alamak! Blame gahmen again....
Do you think the children want to focus on trigonometry? Its the parents who tell them what to focus on.
How can an education system teach filial piety? You mean a teacher (ie. family outsider) in a classroom with textbook can tell a child more about how to treat his elders better than his parents? If a child is not filial, blame the parents first.
It may be a little too late but had education focused as much on filial piety as trigonometry, these adult children would likely have been conditioned to care for their aged parents. We cannot reverse time and then teach these adult children the right values but what we can do is to instil the right values in the young today so that the aged parents of tomorrow will not be forsaken.
Being a nation's leader is never an easy task. I understand this and therefore in spite of all my rhetoric in this forum, I have never spoken out against their million-dollar remuneration because seriously, I believe someone in that role carries enough responsibility to warrant it.
In any age, in any era, the fundamentals will always apply. It is true that people are getting more self-centred today, what with the influence of the western world getting pumped into our society full-force via television programming and the internet. Nevertheless, policies that are set based on fundamentals will always be relevant.
We need to start with the young. The Ministry of Education is one of the most important ministries in the government. The policies that are set by MOE affect everything in the nation through the dimensions of space and time - the young grow up to the adults of the future. To teach the young well, we need good educators who teach not because a teaching job pays well but because they are genuinely passionate about helping children learn the right values and attain the right abilities.
This whole thing is a vicious cycle. We are now even resorting to $$$ to draw teachers in. Not that all are like that but it would be hard to imagine that a teacher who teaches only because of the high pay would be able to convey the right moral values to the young ones.
How do we break this vicious cycle? That is the million dollar question.
I like the way you think Samsara. But to be fair, the leaders today don't have an easier job than the leaders in the past. The leaders in the past could look at other countries which are further along the development path and see the mistakes they made.
What the people wanted back then was also simpler. Food, jobs, housing, education, and security were the top objectives. And people were less individualistic then.
Today, with many of the basic needs satisfied, what the people want has become a lot more varied. Today's people are more complex, and more individualistic also. And since we are now at the top, its harder to look around globally to see who we can learn. We need to forge ahead ourselves. That is scary, difficult and fraught with risks.
Today, you implement something. People know how to complain and make themselves heard. And somehow somewhere, they will always be one group of people whom were offended by what you did.
Look at the 2008 Lehman Brother's crisis. Something that hit the whole world, brought it into recession (including us), crashed markets 50%, and did we even take out much? We didn't. And we repaid it all back within 3 years.
no no no... uncle Ben saved the world .. we were just lucky... that's not the example of how a recession looks like.
200bln today is all we have. it's nowhere near "enough". our budget is 50bln.
So what do you suggest we do with the money?
Some of the things holding people back is also legacy.
Take for example our huge foreign reserves. Its great to have built up so much. But there is such a thing as saving too much. But the problem is how to spend some of it wisely. How to distribute part of it wisely while still being able to keep it at a level which is more than sufficient for Singapore.
We usually keep within budget. So, every year, we end up slightly positive, and another 1 billion goes into our foreign reserves. Its already 100b? 200b? Let's assume its 200b. You are adding 1b to that every year, and 200b itself is also growing. Even assuming they are being more conservative, and only achieve 5% per annum.
At that rate, you will have nearly 600b by the end of another 20 years. Honestly speaking, do we need so much money stashed away? What kind of rainy day, catasrophere, global depression, etc is going to need even a fraction of that kind of money.
Look at the 2008 Lehman Brother's crisis. Something that hit the whole world, brought it into recession (including us), crashed markets 50%, and did we even take out much? We didn't. And we repaid it all back within 3 years.
I know its the hard work and savings built up by everyone before this, and contributed to by current tax payers even now. But there really is such a thing as too much savings. But its a legacy thing, and so, we will continue to build and build an even bigger and bigger foreign reserve. :beats-me-man:
devilplate
23-02-12, 16:16
If a child is not filial, blame the parents first.
YOU ARE VERY DAMN RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
remember to set GOOD example hor.....if u send ur parents to old folks hm, next time ur kids will FOLLOW!!!!!
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 16:22
The education system tries, but education cannot only rely on teachers. Parents, role models, etc must all come in. If a child learns to be neat in school, and then comes home to find that he can leave his toys anywhere and the maid will pick up after him, then who is the one at fault here?
I am not saying our education system is perfect, but in many other countries, the public education system is so bad that the elite only send their kids to private schools because they do not want to risk public schools.
We try and teach all sorts of good morals and stuff. There is a subject called moral education. I wonder how many countries in the world have that? :) But ultimately, the child not only learns from what he is taught in school, he learns from his friends, his environment, and his home too.
A teacher is as important as a parent in the imparting of the right values. A child today spends much of his waking time in school.
There is a chinese saying that is as follows: "一日为师，终身为父". In english, it means that "a day as a teacher, a lifetime as a father". Loosely explained, it refers to how a teacher's influence on a child is as significant as that of a father's.
The parents of today were the children of yesterday. They were shaped by the educational policies of yesteryear.
Alamak! Blame gahmen again....
Do you think the children want to focus on trigonometry? Its the parents who tell them what to focus on.
How can an education system teach filial piety? You mean a teacher (ie. family outsider) in a classroom with textbook can tell a child more about how to treat his elders better than his parents? If a child is not filial, blame the parents first.
All true, but just one problem, intelligence can be measured but how do you measure passion?
Being a nation's leader is never an easy task. I understand this and therefore in spite of all my rhetoric in this forum, I have never spoken out against their million-dollar remuneration because seriously, I believe someone in that role carries enough responsibility to warrant it.
In any age, in any era, the fundamentals will always apply. It is true that people are getting more self-centred today, what with the influence of the western world getting pumped into our society full-force via television programming and the internet. Nevertheless, policies that are set based on fundamentals will always be relevant.
We need to start with the young. The Ministry of Education is one of the most important ministries in the government. The policies that are set by MOE affect everything in the nation through the dimensions of space and time - the young grow up to the adults of the future. To teach the young well, we need good educators who teach not because a teaching job pays well but because they are genuinely passionate about helping children learn the right values and attain the right abilities.
This whole thing is a vicious cycle. We are now even resorting to $$$ to draw teachers in. Not that all are like that but it would be hard to imagine that a teacher who teaches only because of the high pay would be able to convey the right moral values to the young ones.
How do we break this vicious cycle? That is the million dollar question.
Someone pays for the increases in value. In the hypothetical case of ever-rising property prices, it would be the generations of the future.
in short u r against the asset enhancement policies.
I cannot say I agree with you on this topic.
This asset enhancement program does help a lot of people.
It's very easy to say this and that is wrong. it's much more difficult to find what the other alternative is.
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 16:28
Frankly speaking howgozit, I am not sure. Its not like we don't already spend money on stuff like public education, research, etc. Any kind of suggestion as moted by opposition parties are usually self serving and are just meant to cater to getting votes. They are temporary give outs which do not add to society as a whole, nor Singapore as a country.
This kind of thing should probably be thought about on much more seriously because it would likely involve tens of billions of dollars. And it has to be done right or it will just be money down the drain.
But who is going to do it? Legacy is that we just try to have surpluses and keep on adding to it. And it keeps on building on itself as well as money grows more money. So, why rock the boat?
If you want to be radical. Go down the list of resources that Signapore absolutely must have to be able to flourish in the next 100 years. We need fresh water, we need land, we need power (energy), we need people. We also need ideas.
So, channel the money into accumulating these things or ensuring that we will not lack for such assets.
Through a person's speech, his writings, the way he tackles issues, aspects of daily living.
How do you differentiate between a doctor who is in for the money and one who is truly passionate about helping his patients?
The former rushes through his diagnosis and treats patients as numbers, uncaring and unconcerned.
The latter is patient and does his best to understand the situation that the patient is in so that his assessment of the illness is sound. He probes and asks questions to discover more about the patient than what the patient may know himself.
All true, but just one problem, intelligence can be measured but how do you measure passion?
Someone pays for the increases in value. In the hypothetical case of ever-rising property prices, it would be the generations of the future.
already foresee it from the current crazy property price..
30yr old of debt for the young one..:o
The parents of today were shaped by the circumstances of yesterday. This includes education, financial status, lifestyle....etc.
The parents of tomorrow will be shaped by circumstances of today.
A teacher is as important as a parent in the imparting of the right values. A child today spends much of his waking time in school.
There is a chinese saying that is as follows: "一日为师，终身为父". In english, it means that "a day as a teacher, a lifetime as a father". Loosely explained, it refers to how a teacher's influence on a child is as significant as that of a father's.
The parents of today were the children of yesterday. They were shaped by the educational policies of yesteryear.
Agreed, however for the majority of children both of yesteryear and today, education plays a significant role in the shaping of mindsets, attitudes and aptitudes.
The parents of today were shaped by the circumstances of yesterday. This includes education, financial status, lifestyle....etc.
The parents of tomorrow will be shaped by circumstances of today.
So when you are hiring a teacher, how would you assess the applicant's passion?
An academically able applicant can speak, write and tackle issues well... so how do you measure his passion?
Through a person's speech, his writings, the way he tackles issues, aspects of daily living.
How do you differentiate between a doctor who is in for the money and one who is truly passionate about helping his patients?
The former rushes through his diagnosis and treats patients as numbers, uncaring and unconcerned.
The latter is patient and does his best to understand the situation that the patient is in so that his assessment of the illness is sound. He probes and asks questions to discover more about the patient than what the patient may know himself.
devilplate
23-02-12, 16:39
personally, parents plays the most important role in teaching their kids....follow by peer pressure/society and teachers
but i aso agree shd include more hours for moral education.....and organise more volunteering activities for the students and cultivate them to care and share BUT THEN the parents may complain say take up too much of their kids time and kiasu kiasi parents enrol all sorts of lessons for their kids!!!! FAINTZZZZZZZZZZZZ
devilplate
23-02-12, 16:43
many kiasu parents here too!!! many wants to enrol bestest sch for their kids....in a way it aso creates a problem for the kids rite? they will start to compare....u from which primary sch ar.....den wat sec sch ar.....all damn like to compare.....
so WHO TO BLAME????
Exactly, wrt moral education, the blame game should start from the family and cascade down to school, friends, society.. ...etc etc (ok if you like perhaps blame the gahmen too)
Honestly, I don't remember even taking any moral education, civics class...etc during my school days. But my parents have taught me civility, compassion, respect, charity....etc thru their actions. To me this sure beats a textbook pen and paper exercise. Imagine taking an exam on how to be filial... don't we have enough of that already?
personally, parents plays the most important role in teaching their kids....follow by peer pressure/society and teachers
but i aso agree shd include more hours for moral education.....and organise more volunteering activities for the students and cultivate them to care and share
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 16:50
Parents, the kids themselves, peers, the environment, everything shapes them into who they are. School is only one part of it.
devilplate
23-02-12, 16:51
kiasu parents focus too much on their kid's academic performance these days liao.....must study hard...score well....enter uni....if not earn little money...become cleaner next time.....u see....parents in a way teaching their kids to become $$$$ FACE!!!
but den parents will blame the govt/society lor....so expensive wat....everything needs $$$.....cleaner so low pay only $1k....how to survive like dat....
den how?? govt blame who? cannot follow Eu country rite.....HOW HOW???!!!
Eldenfirefly
23-02-12, 16:51
In some cases, its the person himself that decide to take the wrong road. Cannot blame parents, school or anyone else.
BTW, they are even trying to add in teach creative thinking in school these days. I wonder if that will be effective. lol. Creative thinking requires thinking out of the box. Can it actually be "taught"?
Much as it would simplify workflows if everything could be measured, not everything can be quantified and measured. How do you measure a person's love for his spouse? How do you quantify a son's extent of filial piety?
An aspiring teacher who has a passion for teaching children will find it a joy to be with the children. Her eyes will light up when she is given the opportunity to convey ideas and concepts to her ward. Put her in a class with the children and one should be able to tell whether that joy is genuine or pretentious.
So when you are hiring a teacher, how would you assess the applicant's passion?
An academically able applicant can speak, write and tackle issues well... so how do you measure his passion?
Everyone plays a part. I am not advocating the idea that moral education in school replaces parental guidance. It is however as important as parental guidance given the amount of time a child spends in school today.
many kiasu parents here too!!! many wants to enrol bestest sch for their kids....in a way it aso creates a problem for the kids rite? they will start to compare....u from which primary sch ar.....den wat sec sch ar.....all damn like to compare.....
so WHO TO BLAME????
Totally reasonable statement
Parents, the kids themselves, peers, the environment, everything shapes them into who they are. School is only one part of it.
What you are suggesting is very difficult to do, there is no instrument to measure a "light-up" in an applicant's eyes when you put him/her in a room of children.
Imagine turning down a truly passionate and qualified teacher applicant telling her "sorry we can't hire you, your eyes did not light up as much as the other applicants".
Much as it would simplify workflows if everything could be measured, not everything can be quantified and measured. How do you measure a person's love for his spouse? How do you quantify a son's extent of filial piety?
An aspiring teacher who has a passion for teaching children will find it a joy to be with the children. Her eyes will light up when she is given the opportunity to convey ideas and concepts to her ward. Put her in a class with the children and one should be able to tell whether that joy is genuine or pretentious.
Exactly, wrt moral education, the blame game should start from the family and cascade down to school, friends, society.. ...etc etc (ok if you like perhaps blame the gahmen too)
Honestly, I don't remember even taking any moral education, civics class...etc during my school days. But my parents have taught me civility, compassion, respect, charity....etc thru their actions. To me this sure beats a textbook pen and paper exercise. Imagine taking an exam on how to be filial... don't we have enough of that already?
Moral education has should not have exam lah. At least no exam during my time.
But I do agree that school is not the only one responsible for teaching moral education. Starts from the Family and leading by example is the best education to the young ones. If you live together with you parents and look after them. They will learn & know the responsibility to look after their parents (which is us) when they grow up.
Also, Education has to be consistent. If you learn something at home but school didn't teach, sometimes you tend to think it's not important. On the other hand if you also learn the same in school, it re-emphasizes the message & will burnt into the brain permanently. I still remember the story of crows looking after the parents when they grow up.
乌鸦反哺. Not sure if you guys also learn this before in primary school. This story has left a very deep impression in my early days.
However when they get married, there is no guarantee already as the other half is brought up differently & has different moral mindset. This is the most difficult one and has to be discussed & mitigated between the two of them.
confused about the points people trying to make.
so if we have morally upright people, property price won't go up so much and it will be sustainable, as per thread title?
confused about the points people trying to make.
so if we have morally upright people, property price won't go up so much and it will be sustainable, as per thread title?
It is veering off into a political direction.
Not everything in life can be quantified and measured using instruments. This does not mean that we cannot evaluate the non-quantifiable elements. Having conducted recruitment interviews before in the distant past, I am quite certain that the average human being is able to tell from the responses of an individual whether he is play-acting or if he is truly passionate about the subject matter.
What you are suggesting is very difficult to do, there is no instrument to measure a "light-up" in an applicant's eyes when you put him/her in a room of children.
Imagine turning down a truly passionate and qualified teacher applicant telling her "sorry we can't hire you, your eyes did not light up as much as the other applicants".
Indeed bro PN, education at home is important, as is education in school. It helps that both the school and home environments reinforce the same lessons being taught.
Moral education has should not have exam lah. At least no exam during my time.
But I do agree that school is not the only one responsible for teaching moral education. Starts from the Family and leading by example is the best education to the young ones. If you live together with you parents and look after them. They will learn & know the responsibility to look after their parents (which is us) when they grow up.
Also, Education has to be consistent. If you learn something at home but school didn't teach, sometimes you tend to think it's not important. On the other hand if you also learn the same in school, it re-emphasizes the message & will burnt into the brain permanently. I still remember the story of crows looking after the parents when they grow up.
乌鸦反哺. Not sure if you guys also learn this before in primary school. This story has left a very deep impression in my early days.
However when they get married, there is no guarantee already as the other half is brought up differently & has different moral mindset. This is the most difficult one and has to be discussed & mitigated between the two of them.
Perhaps it is the lack of finesse on my part but my posts are not meant to disparage any political group. I only wish to highlight the following points:
a. society is greatly affected by policies; the masses can be surprisingly malleable
b. politics is not about scoring points; it is about policy-making to help a nation grow in more dimensions than one (not just economic but also other aspects such as emotional, spiritual, etc)
c. as with all other things in life, keeping the fundamentals sound is key to making or breaking initiatives, even if the original intentions are valid
d. life is more than just about economic growth; holistic development is essential to meaningful living
It is veering off into a political direction.
Everything is linked and intertwined. Two seemingly disparate issues can have significant impact on each other. We talk now about education; though distant it may seem to be from the property market, it has everything to do with it.
The education of the young determines the behavior of the adults in future. This affects the prospects of a country which in turn influences the demand for local property and therefore the dynamics of the property market. This is cause and effect.
confused about the points people trying to make.
so if we have morally upright people, property price won't go up so much and it will be sustainable, as per thread title?
Techniques can be taught and can be learned. Mastery of these however depends on the individual's motivations, aptitude, industriousness and passion. The best student will learn a given technique and improve on it, and with it become even stronger than his teacher. The lackadaisical student will learn it for his exams, perhaps even score well by regurgitating every last bit but wash it out of his system after the tests are done.
In some cases, its the person himself that decide to take the wrong road. Cannot blame parents, school or anyone else.
BTW, they are even trying to add in teach creative thinking in school these days. I wonder if that will be effective. lol. Creative thinking requires thinking out of the box. Can it actually be "taught"?
Of course... that is my point too. Passion cannot be measured (among many other personal qualities)
MOE can only assess to the best of their abilities based on their experience. So what is wrong with using money to attract talent? It is not the best way, but what is the alternative? In life must be practical lah... don't always bash gahmen for the sake of it.
Not everything in life can be quantified and measured using instruments. This does not mean that we cannot evaluate the non-quantifiable elements. Having conducted recruitment interviews before in the distant past, I am quite certain that the average human being is able to tell from the responses of an individual whether he is play-acting or if he is truly passionate about the subject matter.
I am not a PAP-hater, neither am I their sympathiser. In case you have prematurely concluded that I am anti-government, please read the points that I have raised. Does it seem like I am bashing them for the sake of doing so?
Just because there are no apparent alternatives does not mean that we cannot be seeking them. Just because money accomplishes certain objectives does not mean that there are no better alternatives.
By trying to resolve most things using money, we only dig a deeper hole for ourselves because we become too lazy to think of other ways of resolving the issues, or even begin to understand that there are far more deep-reaching roots for certain situations than it appears.
Of course... that is my point too. Passion cannot be measured (among many other personal qualities)
MOE can only assess to the best of their abilities based on their experience. So what is wrong with using money to attract talent? It is not the best way, but what is the alternative? In life must be practical lah... don't always bash gahmen for the sake of it.
Firstly I am not defending any political group. I don't really care who is running the country. Nicole Seah or Tin Peh Lin can be the PM for all I care.
The policies implemented sometimes favour my plans sometimes it does not. Be it economic or educational policies, I don't bitch about it, I deal with it.
If my children talk back to me rudely, I won't blame the gahmen for not having enough moral education classes. If the gahmen introduce CMs, I won't blame gahmen too... I just deal with it.
Is this called apathy or just being realistic? I don't know... does it matter? If it is not a life and death issue, I couldn't care less.
Singaporeans have become too pampered and thinks everyone owes them something. Want a condo but can't afford it? Tough! Remain in HDB instead... what's wrong with that?
Perhaps it is the lack of finesse on my part but my posts are not meant to disparage any political group. I only wish to highlight the following points:
a. society is greatly affected by policies; the masses can be surprisingly malleable
b. politics is not about scoring points; it is about policy-making to help a nation grow in more dimensions than one (not just economic but also other aspects such as emotional, spiritual, etc)
c. as with all other things in life, keeping the fundamentals sound is key to making or breaking initiatives, even if the original intentions are valid
d. life is more than just about economic growth; holistic development is essential to meaningful living
blackjack21trader
23-02-12, 18:27
Brother howgozit attitude to life is correct. Many a times in life, you cannot have the best of all Worlds. So, just have to handle life little surprises.
Today I am an Alien code named : 1-7-8
:)
It is easy to be apathetic when you are not adversely affected by the situation. As you have mentioned, if it is not a life or death issue, why bother? If every Singaporean thinks this way, it will one day truly become a life or death issue when the survival of Singapore is at stake.
Much as I want to think that my family is encapsulated and my children can depend on my spouse and I to teach them the right values, they are influenced by many other things outside the family, amongst which school-time has significant influence.
We have a part to play in determining how the environment that our families live in, work in, study in and play in develops. We can choose to pretend that everything is all right even when it is not. Or we can decide to be more involved in the shaping of the environment that we are in.
Firstly I am not defending any political group. I don't really care who is running the country. Nicole Seah or Tin Peh Lin can be the PM for all I care.
The policies implemented sometimes favour my plans sometimes it does not. Be it economic or educational policies, I don't bitch about it, I deal with it.
If my children talk back to me rudely, I won't blame the gahmen for not having enough moral education classes. If the gahmen introduce CMs, I won't blame gahmen too... I just deal with it.
Is this called apathy or just being realistic? I don't know... does it matter? If it is not a life and death issue, I couldn't care less.
Singaporeans have become too pampered and thinks everyone owes them something. Want a condo but can't afford it? Tough! Remain in HDB instead... what's wrong with that?
Different people have different ways of handling life's little surprises. Some will just shrug them off while others do something about it. An internet forum is just that, a forum for sharing ideas. The onus is still on the individual to do his due diligence apart from indulging in on-line chatter.
Brother howgozit attitude to life is correct. Many a times in life, you cannot have the best of all Worlds. So, just have to handle life little surprises.
Today I am an Alien code named : 1-7-8
:)
samsara:
I think you have picked up a good point. Our Singapore education is not holistic enough at this point in time. I heard that one ex-Minister's kid and one highly ranked Singapore academic's kid both had straight As from Singapore JCs and were applying to Cambridge University. They went for interview at the colleges. Even though both kids had influential parents who were ex-alumni of Cambridge and knew some of the people there, but the kids failed to get in. The reason given was that at the interview, they lacked that special "spark". Unfortunately our education system is so geared to churning out As, that somewhere along the way, the kids didn't have time or opportunity to generate that something special that could inspire jaded academics. It looks like the "through train" stream in JC is a fast food outlet in disguise..........
Singaporeans have become too pampered and thinks everyone owes them something. Want a condo but can't afford it? Tough! Remain in HDB instead... what's wrong with that?
Nice one , Like :)
And to the other member, it's just SO easy to take a moral high ground. Yea should do this, should do that. Etc. Our ivy league scholars know that too. Look at the passage you posted , any one is concrete and with considerations of all repercussions ? It's one thing you wish for it, it's the other how, or even, can you do it. For example, no appreciation of HDB asset price "for th benefit of future generation". Really? You think it works ? Ever thought about what it means for a lot of older people ?
By the way, they also stressing "no appreciation of private property price for the benefit of future generation" otherwise the younger generation cannot effort.
Why should anybody make private property affordable to younger generation? Shouldn't private property be reserved for people who had make it, hence not for the young but the for middle age who had worked hard and make it to be able to afford? Isn't that a good enough incentive to make the young work hard when young rather than make everything cheap cheap for them and they can plainly sit back and relax and do little to be able to afford a private property? I fainted! Can't imagine what sort of young we have now! :doh:
All those 10% ABSD etc trying to give unfair advantage to the citizens? If really want to give privilege & advantage to citizens, should just kick all the foreigners out lah (including the PRs). Ha ha ha!
Nice one , Like :)
And to the other member, it's just SO easy to take a moral high ground. Yea should do this, should do that. Etc. Our ivy league scholars know that too. Look at the passage you posted , any one is concrete and with considerations of all repercussions ? It's one thing you wish for it, it's the other how, or even, can you do it. For example, no appreciation of HDB asset price "for th benefit of future generation". Really? You think it works ? Ever thought about what it means for a lot of older people ?
Yah... I am not adversely affected perhaps that's why I am apathetic. But then if everyone that is apathetic is also like me not adversely affected, then what is the problem?
If there are enough people adversely affected, don't worry there will be changes. That is the democratic process.
Despite your insistence of being apolitical, your postings have clear political leanings. That is Ok.... if you feel that the government is responsible for immoral behaviour that is OK too.
I am not advocating my values (as wrong as they may seem to you)... its just how I feel.
It is easy to be apathetic when you are not adversely affected by the situation. As you have mentioned, if it is not a life or death issue, why bother? If every Singaporean thinks this way, it will one day truly become a life or death issue when the survival of Singapore is at stake.
Much as I want to think that my family is encapsulated and my children can depend on my spouse and I to teach them the right values, they are influenced by many other things outside the family, amongst which school-time has significant influence.
We have a part to play in determining how the environment that our families live in, work in, study in and play in develops. We can choose to pretend that everything is all right even when it is not. Or we can decide to be more involved in the shaping of the environment that we are in.
This kind of examples only tell one side of the story... for example how do you know the kids you mentioned didn't get into Oxford, Yale or Harvard instead?
In any case, going to any of these unis should not be the sole objective of a student and should not be taken to be a failure of the system. We cannot be studying just to get into Cambridge or Oxford, if cannot get in... then die lah... fail....
Btw, the UK universities look for different things compared to the US ivy leagues during the interviews.
The IP route is a contentious one, I have to say it doesn't work for everbody. But for high-achievers, it is the way to go. The acceptance rate for the Ox-Bridge unis and US ivy league unis are the highest for each individual IP schools in Singapore, higher than many of the top schools in UK including Eton. Many already pre-accepted even before seating for the 'A' level exams, that is how reputable our IP schools are.
samsara:
I think you have picked up a good point. Our Singapore education is not holistic enough at this point in time. I heard that one ex-Minister's kid and one highly ranked Singapore academic's kid both had straight As from Singapore JCs and were applying to Cambridge University. They went for interview at the colleges. Even though both kids had influential parents who were ex-alumni of Cambridge and knew some of the people there, but the kids failed to get in. The reason given was that at the interview, they lacked that special "spark". Unfortunately our education system is so geared to churning out As, that somewhere along the way, the kids didn't have time or opportunity to generate that something special that could inspire jaded academics. It looks like the "through train" stream in JC is a fast food outlet in disguise..........
blackjack21trader
23-02-12, 20:20
The problem with Lion brothers and sisters is the ability to articulate the thoughts. Yes, you see...you guys speak so well on black and white but I bet when I meet some of you in person, you may not have that "spark" to present an idea across convincingly.
When I left NUS, my first job was at a US listed company. Every meeting with the angmo was cold sweat for me. I just lack that "spark". The effectiveness of the very same idea presented by me and the angmo can be like heaven and earth. Same concept, but when come outta my mouth..it sounds like....err..........sigh.....
However, after many nightmares at elmstreet, I finally managed to think on my feet. But by then....I was already interested in something else liao lor....
"You may have a goldmine in your head.. it is worthless till you learn how to present it to the World."- famous words by Blackjack21trader
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
blackjack21trader
23-02-12, 20:39
And you think it would not be true if Lion brothers and sisters use Hokkien, Mandarin or any other language. Let me tell you... the effect is still the same !!
I think I know why. The reason is the lack of "good" conversation with schoolmates and a severe lack of reading newspapers.
See, the angmo teenagers not only talk about girls and boys, they also talk about history, philosophy and such. But our teenagers talk what ? Who is our Prime Minister some also dunno. WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
blackjack21trader
23-02-12, 20:44
Sure, some educators told me the students here talk about newspaper and current affairs what....
I just kept silent. You know why?
because our students only talk about newspapers in class. They have no interest/ motivation to explore newspapers further outside of school life.
You know why I kept silent? So their kids cannot be better than mine next time in life lor....
Get it ?
blackjack21trader
23-02-12, 20:47
" A real World requires real problem solving skills, not an engineering manual ."- famous words by Blackjack21trader.
blackjack21trader
23-02-12, 20:50
this chia-zhar-bor got a point. we need a more holistic type of education because the World had already advanced.
Agree, but I think the problem lies with culture rather than the education. For better or for worse, it is slowly changing. Being articulate and outspoken has a price and the result is that you cannot expect our children to be as submissive and subservient. Unfortunately we can't have it both ways.
Btw, when they talk about the "spark", they are not referring speech ability but more referring to an "intellectual spark". Singaporean students vying for places in these top Unis are actually doing very well.
The problem with Lion brothers and sisters is the ability to articulate the thoughts. Yes, you see...you guys speak so well on black and white but I bet when I meet some of you in person, you may not have that "spark" to present an idea across convincingly.
When I left NUS, my first job was at a US listed company. Every meeting with the angmo was cold sweat for me. I just lack that "spark". The effectiveness of the very same idea presented by me and the angmo can be like heaven and earth. Same concept, but when come outta my mouth..it sounds like....err..........sigh.....
However, after many nightmares at elmstreet, I finally managed to think on my feet. But by then....I was already interested in something else liao lor....
"You may have a goldmine in your head.. it is worthless till you learn how to present it to the World."- famous words by Blackjack21trader
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
blackjack21trader
23-02-12, 20:57
..
Btw, when they talk about the "spark", they are not referring speech ability but more referring to an "intellectual spark". Singaporean students vying for places in these top Unis are actually doing very well.
oic, thanks for enlightening me. never get to even smell the angmo University.
The problem with Lion brothers and sisters is the ability to articulate the thoughts. Yes, you see...you guys speak so well on black and white but I bet when I meet some of you in person, you may not have that "spark" to present an idea across convincingly.
When I left NUS, my first job was at a US listed company. Every meeting with the angmo was cold sweat for me. I just lack that "spark". The effectiveness of the very same idea presented by me and the angmo can be like heaven and earth. Same concept, but when come outta my mouth..it sounds like....err..........sigh.....
However, after many nightmares at elmstreet, I finally managed to think on my feet. But by then....I was already interested in something else liao lor....
"You may have a goldmine in your head.. it is worthless till you learn how to present it to the World."- famous words by Blackjack21trader
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Wise words indeed...:D
blackjack21trader:
chia-zhar-bor reporting here. You have also improved your Eng-land writing skills hor. Your post is very interesting to read too.
Your experience about the way you and the ang-mor presenting the same things and how different it comes out... your humble sister here has also observed the same thing.
You know.... the way the kids are nurtured. in Lion City is different from ang-more kids. Young Lions are being presented with test papers from young age and also spend time going to enrichment classes in their "spare" time. Ang-mor kids are not bombarded with test papers. They are encouraged to express themselves freely and play and be themselves. My colleague was saying how different it is seeing his grandson grow up in Eng-land. The boy comes home from school and has no homework, no enrichment classes, no test papers. He just plays and watches TV. This Lion City grandad is scratching his head and asks his daughter in-law who grew up in ang-mor land why things are so slack for kids there. She said "Dad this is how I was at his age too. And look now I am a doctor." She shrugs her shoulders.
I suppose ang-mor kids have more time to develop their creative thinking and expression skills rather than their test paper-answering skills.
blackjack21trader
24-02-12, 03:52
blackjack21trader:
...
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I suppose ang-mor kids have more time to develop their creative thinking and expression skills rather than their test paper-answering skills.
I knew it has something to do with creative thinking and presentation skills but somehow I never knew how to identify the exact problems...You put it very nicely across, sister chia :)
A forum is for idea exchange, we are all entitled to our own views and it is positive that we are sharing our own perspectives. Thank you for your sharing! :)
Yah... I am not adversely affected perhaps that's why I am apathetic. But then if everyone that is apathetic is also like me not adversely affected, then what is the problem?
If there are enough people adversely affected, don't worry there will be changes. That is the democratic process.
Despite your insistence of being apolitical, your postings have clear political leanings. That is Ok.... if you feel that the government is responsible for immoral behaviour that is OK too.
I am not advocating my values (as wrong as they may seem to you)... its just how I feel.
blackjack21trader
24-02-12, 05:12
A forum is for idea exchange, we are all entitled to our own views and it is positive that we are sharing our own perspectives. Thank you for your sharing! :)
so early arh brother ? how it feels to be back into the samsara reality?
"I am awake while asleep and asleep while awake."- clever words by Blackjack21trader
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Have a good day ahead! :)
so early arh brother ? how it feels to be back into the samsara reality?
"I am awake while asleep and asleep while awake."- clever words by Blackjack21trader
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
blackjack21trader:
chia-zhar-bor reporting here. You have also improved your Eng-land writing skills hor. Your post is very interesting to read too.
Your experience about the way you and the ang-mor presenting the same things and how different it comes out... your humble sister here has also observed the same thing.
You know.... the way the kids are nurtured. in Lion City is different from ang-more kids. Young Lions are being presented with test papers from young age and also spend time going to enrichment classes in their "spare" time. Ang-mor kids are not bombarded with test papers. They are encouraged to express themselves freely and play and be themselves. My colleague was saying how different it is seeing his grandson grow up in Eng-land. The boy comes home from school and has no homework, no enrichment classes, no test papers. He just plays and watches TV. This Lion City grandad is scratching his head and asks his daughter in-law who grew up in ang-mor land why things are so slack for kids there. She said "Dad this is how I was at his age too. And look now I am a doctor." She shrugs her shoulders.
I suppose ang-mor kids have more time to develop their creative thinking and expression skills rather than their test paper-answering skills.
There is a quota to restrict the number of students who can attend school of medicine here. Hence no matter how bright the kids are, many cannot become a doctor. This is a policy mistake that resulted in lack of doctors (and hence the high medical costs) in Singapore now.
blackjack21trader
24-02-12, 05:37
Have a good day ahead! :)
You too ! bro samsara. Today I so happy everyone woke up so early lor.
There is a quota to restrict the number of students who can attend school of medicine here. Hence no matter how bright the kids are, many cannot become a doctor. This is a policy mistake that resulted in lack of doctors (and hence the high medical costs) in Singapore now.
My doctor friends tell me that the "shortage" of doctors is not as bad as perceived. Inefficient distribution of manpower is more of a factor. Do note that restructured hospitals also have a bottom line to meet and hiring foreign talent is cheaper than a local grad.
High medical costs in Singapore are also due to the advances in technology. The latest equipment and drugs are expensive. You don't expect the govt to subsidize everything. There is a limit to what they would subsidize. Manpower costs and utility costs are also high. Inflation also hits the medical sector. Please buy the best medical insurance that you can to protect yourself and your loved ones. You want to be able to afford that new wonder drug that can save lives if something unfortunate should happen.
My doctor friends tell me that the "shortage" of doctors is not as bad as perceived. Inefficient distribution of manpower is more of a factor. Do note that restructured hospitals also have a bottom line to meet and hiring foreign talent is cheaper than a local grad.
High medical costs in Singapore are also due to the advances in technology. The latest equipment and drugs are expensive. You don't expect the govt to subsidize everything. There is a limit to what they would subsidize. Manpower costs and utility costs are also high. Inflation also hits the medical sector. Please buy the best medical insurance that you can to protect yourself and your loved ones. You want to be able to afford that new wonder drug that can save lives if something unfortunate should happen.
I notice that there are more and more foreign doctors. The government mitigate the shortage by importing a lot of foreigners. In reality, local doctors are in shortage. Encouraging people to buy medical insurance is the government's way to shift the burden to the people. It doesn't address the root which is lack of doctors. Cost of consultation is still a very large part of medical bills. Equipment, medicines and consummables are charged separately in hospitals. Over here, property price rise has been effectively curbed with huge supplies.
Back to your point on why student can still be a doctor despite not studying as hard as local students, the issue lies in lack of opportunities via screwed up policies.
Allthepies
24-02-12, 06:38
i see the doctor quota is more a delibrate move to distribute talents across all sectors rather than a policy mistake. most people perceive being a doctor to a good pay and life. imagine each year cohot we have 20000 doctors. the other sectors will face serious shortage of talents. of course if we have unlimited talent pool and people, then we will have no prob.
i see the doctor quota is more a delibrate move to distribute talents across all sectors rather than a policy mistake. most people perceive being a doctor to a good pay and life. imagine each year cohot we have 20000 doctors. the other sectors will face serious shortage of talents. of course if we have unlimited talent pool and people, then we will have no prob.
A lot of jc students cant get into medicine end up in life science course, but having difficulty finding stable jobs.
A lot of jc students cant get into medicine end up in life science course, but having difficulty finding stable jobs.
omg. life science! :doh::doh::doh:
NorthernStar
24-02-12, 07:25
A teacher is as important as a parent in the imparting of the right values. A child today spends much of his waking time in school.
There is a chinese saying that is as follows: "一日为师，终身为父". In english, it means that "a day as a teacher, a lifetime as a father". Loosely explained, it refers to how a teacher's influence on a child is as significant as that of a father's.
The parents of today were the children of yesterday. They were shaped by the educational policies of yesteryear.
emm.. this chinese saying is basically teaching ppl to respect person who had taught you something even he/she is just a one day teacher to u.
There is another chinese saying: "养不教,父之过.教不严,师之惰" which i think this is more appropriate. My broken "eng-land" translation:"Raising a child but not educating/guiding them, this is the fault of the father (parent in modern world ;) ). Educate students loosely, this is the teacher's laziness.
Well, teachers today are tasked to educate the students with many things. I would think the teacher is good if he/she can transfer so many knowledge to the student. School today also promote green environment, charity events. Besides these, how do you expect the teacher to replace the parent's duty to teach them on filial or some other social morals, if they see their parent also dump their grand-parent to old folk home?
my :2cents:
A lot of jc students cant get into medicine end up in life science course, but having difficulty finding stable jobs.
I agree the allocation of slots to medical school has a lot to improve. For that matter law school and dentistry too.
In fact dentistry has more limited slots than medicine and make more money on the average than medicine and also take less time to get there too. Other than specialists, the average GP does'nt make that much. The polyclinic GP even worse.
... Agree...
Cheers and thanks!
A forum is for idea exchange, we are all entitled to our own views and it is positive that we are sharing our own perspectives. Thank you for your sharing! :)
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