View Full Version : Prices of Private Residential Properties Register Marginal Decline in 1st Qarter 2012
bargain hunter
02-04-12, 13:53
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2012/pr12-33.html
2 April 2012
Prices of Private Residential Properties Register Marginal Decline in 1st Quarter 2012
URA's flash estimate of the private residential property price index for 1st Quarter 2012 indicates that overall private residential property prices have declined from the quarter before. This is the first price decline since 2nd Quarter 2009 and follows the trend of stabilising prices over the past 9 consecutive quarters.
The private residential property price index declined marginally from 206.2 points in 4th Quarter 2011 to 206.0 points in 1st Quarter 2012. This represents a decrease of 0.1%, compared to the 0.2% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-33a.pdf)).
Prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 0.9% in Core Central Region and 0.7% in Rest of Central Region in the quarter. Prices in Outside Central Region however increased by 1.2%, compared to the 0.6% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex B (http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-33b.pdf)).
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold by developers. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 1st Quarter 2012 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.
bargain hunter
02-04-12, 14:27
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p.nsf/PressReleases/E5E5AFB2FCD9DAE0482579D400001FE5?OpenDocument
Date issued : 02 Apr 2012
HDB’s flash estimate of the 1st Quarter 2012 Resale Price Index (RPI) is 191.6, an increase of 0.6% over 4th Quarter 2011 (see Annexes A-1 (http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/1ST%20QUARTER%202012%20RESALE%20PRICE%20INDEX%20%20Annex%20A1/$file/ANNEX+A1.doc) http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/INFOWEBICON/$file/icon-doc.gif;pv6811151c260a2755 (DOC 26KB) and A-2 (http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/1ST%20QUARTER%202012%20RESALE%20PRICE%20INDEX%20%20Annex%20A2/$file/ANNEX+A2.doc) http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/INFOWEBICON/$file/icon-doc.gif;pv6811151c260a2755 (DOC 28KB)). This is lower than the 1.7% increase in the previous quarter and is the lowest RPI growth since 3rd Quarter 2006* .
2The RPI provides information on the general price movements in the public residential market. Transacted prices of individual flats (by block and flat type) can be found on HDB’s website and detailed online enquiries can be made at http://services2.hdb.gov.sg/webapp/BB33RTIS/BB33PReslTrans.jsp (http://services2.hdb.gov.sg/webapp/BB33RTIS/BB33PReslTrans.jsp)
3The RPI for the full quarter and more detailed public housing data for 1st Quarter 2012 will be released on 27 April 2012.
ha... 1/2 filled or 1/2 empty ..... :scared-1:
blackjack21trader
03-04-12, 05:40
any price movement less than 5% is considered not significant in property.:confused:
Its flat that's what its means.
This is below the inflation figure. Not a good sign.
This is below the inflation figure. Not a good sign.
Can't always be running ahead of inflation. If not we will be at CM10 by now.
This is below the inflation figure. Not a good sign.
Inflation is an annualised number whereas this is a quarterly number, to annualise, x4
any price movement less than 5% is considered not significant in property.:confused:
0.9% decline per quarter will give you around 4% per year.
It does not feel like a price correction by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Apr 03, 2012
in Today
Colin Tan concluded
I may have more bad news for those waiting for a more meaningful price correction. The feedback I am getting from housing agents is that the resale market - yes, you heard it right - has picked up recently and that momentum is building up once again.
Not the kind of news some want to hear right now.
It does not feel like a price correction by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Apr 03, 2012
in Today
Colin Tan concluded
I may have more bad news for those waiting for a more meaningful price correction. The feedback I am getting from housing agents is that the resale market - yes, you heard it right - has picked up recently and that momentum is building up once again.
Not the kind of news some want to hear right now.
Agreed. But should I buy now or wait and monitor?
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 10:14
I think the higher PSF is because of downsizing of units. Or else prices would have crashed in the index. I read in the paper few days ago, the average size of a new unit (country-wide) is only approx 650sqft, a reduction of 40% from a year ago. The average size of new OCR unit is larger at 750sqft. Assuming 70% in OCR, this means average size of CCR/RCR unit is less than 500sqft. So not surprising, CCR/RCR prices are dropping because they cannot go any smaller than that. I hv mentioned this before, the reason I believe 2 years ago why OCR has upside is because at that time the downsizing has not happened in the region. Now, downsizing has come to OCR as well, albeit average size of new OCR units still much larger than CCR/RCR. But at some point in time, the downsizing has to stop, that is when OCR will start suffering the same fate as CCR/RCR/
wohoo 1million property just became 990000..:D...wont mr B B dissapointed:eek:
I think the higher PSF is because of downsizing of units. Or else prices would have crashed in the index. I read in the paper few days ago, the average size of a new unit (country-wide) is only approx 650sqft, a reduction of 40% from a year ago. The average size of new OCR unit is larger at 750sqft. Assuming 70% in OCR, this means average size of CCR/RCR unit is less than 500sqft. So not surprising, CCR/RCR prices are dropping because they cannot go any smaller than that. I hv mentioned this before, the reason I believe 2 years ago why OCR has upside is because at that time the downsizing has not happened in the region. Now, downsizing has come to OCR as well, albeit average size of new OCR units still much larger than CCR/RCR. But at some point in time, the downsizing has to stop, that is when OCR will start suffering the same fate as CCR/RCR/
URA has refused the calls to separate its index for MM units believing that MM units are not significant to influence its index. The latest index shows its weaknesses. The high psf prices for small units are distorting URA's price index. If not for the small units in the mass market, prices would have fallen evenly in CCR, RCR and OCR.
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 10:26
But even if they split MM units, I think it will affect CCR/RCR more. Because most OCR 1+1 units are still in the region of 600+sqft which is still larger than MM.
URA has refused the calls to separate its index for MM units believing that MM units are not significant to influence its index. The latest index shows its weaknesses. The high psf prices for small units are distorting URA's price index. If not for the small units in the mass market, prices would have fallen evenly in CCR, RCR and OCR.
Agreed. But should I buy now or wait and monitor?
It depends on your personal circumstances. If you need a roof over yr head, I think you should consider buying. The longer you wait, the more you will waste on rent (this is literally money down the drain and helps to pay your landlord housing loan). And the less years you will have to be able to pay your own housing loan.
If it's for investment, then it's not so clear-cut. You do it at your own risk. In the long term it will probably be OK if you choose a well-located unit (not mickey-mouse hor).
*S'pore among favourite cities of the super-rich* by Venus Hew 04:45 AM Mar 31, 2012 SINGAPORE - The Republic has been ranked the fifth most important city in the world - up two notches from its previous ranking - by high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), according to The Wealth Report 2012 by Citi Private Bank and property consultancy Knight Frank. London took top spot in the ranking, followed by New York, Hong Kong and Paris. The survey assesses the importance of key cities to HNWIs based on the state of world affairs, opportunities for wealth creation, economic risks and political stability. When asked for their views on leading cities in 10 years' time, the respondents kept Singapore, London and New York in their current spots. Beijing and Shanghai were viewed as the fastest-growing, reflecting the impact of the flourishing economies of the East. They were deemed to be the third and fourth most important cities in 10 years, knocking Paris and Hong Kong down the list. HNWIs are keen on investing in prime residential and commercial properties in these top global cities because they are viewed as "safe havens" for long-term investments or as second homes, Knight Frank said. "If you look at property investment, most of the HNWIs' attitudes have changed ... for the longer-term perspective and a longer holding period," said Mr Png Poh Soon, head of consultancy and research at Knight Frank. "Nobody wants to make a loss. So certainly people are concerned about the impact of the market," he added. Despite cooling measures, experts say luxury property prices here will remain resilient due to the continued interest among the global super-rich in Singapore properties. The survey was conducted on 4,000 individuals worth an average of US$100 million (S$126 million) each.
wohoo 1million property just became 990000..:D...wont mr B B dissapointed:eek:
I thot u will be disappointed too?
But even if they split MM units, I think it will affect CCR/RCR more. Because most OCR 1+1 units are still in the region of 600+sqft which is still larger than MM.
I can't believe you are trying to find every single piece of data and spin it to assert your CCR/OCR theory.
The report u mentioned is for NEW SALE transactions of the last 3 months. In the last 3 months, how many CCR new sales were done ?? The nb of transaction is so little the index is irrelevant.
On the other hand, for the OCR segment, the number is very relevant, because Feb/Mar we see *record* nb of OCR new sales!
What this data meant is very simple: OCR buyers are now buying into MMs (or quasi MMs) hoping as "investment pty". aka FEO's watertown. Out of almost 5000 new OCR sales, more than half are <700 sqft "investment pty" for rental. This is the best example of a *bubble*.
and you still think OCR are better buys ?
It depends on your personal circumstances. If you need a roof over yr head, I think you should consider buying. The longer you wait, the more you will waste on rent (this is literally money down the drain and helps to pay your landlord housing loan). And the less years you will have to be able to pay your own housing loan.
If it's for investment, then it's not so clear-cut. You do it at your own risk. In the long term it will probably be OK if you choose a well-located unit (not mickey-mouse hor).
Thanks.
BTW, what are all these term OCC,OCR etc mean? :beats-me-man:
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 11:56
why are you and teddybear ever so sensitive?
have you read the papers about downsizing? Real stats:- the average size of new sales is now only 650sqft and OCR is 750sqft. This means if you know maths and assuming 70% of new sales is in OCR:-
(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650). Assuming y is average size of CCR unit. Y is actually a very small number <500 sqft. Which means new sales in CCR is now very small units and slow to a trickle. Sometimes we have to dissect and interprete statistics right? Cannot just agree blindly with what the reporter says. And for goodness sake, nobody is bashing CCR. People are just analysing how and why CCR prices are going down. And even OCR wil follow suit once the unit size falls to "y".
I have no idea why you and teddybear and always jumping up and down over nothing. I'm indirectly telling the guy up there, don't buy if you buying for investments because size can't get any smaller already.
In fact, I like this forum because it has 3-4 years of past advice by different forummers. And on hindsight, you can tell who is more objective and predict better based on same set of stats.
I can't believe you are trying to find every single piece of data and spin it to assert your CCR/OCR theory.
The report u mentioned is for NEW SALE transactions of the last 3 months. In the last 3 months, how many CCR new sales were done ?? The nb of transaction is so little the index is irrelevant.
On the other hand, for the OCR segment, the number is very relevant, because Feb/Mar we see *record* nb of OCR new sales!
What this data meant is very simple: OCR buyers are now buying into MMs (or quasi MMs) hoping as "investment pty". aka FEO's watertown. Out of almost 5000 new OCR sales, more than half are <700 sqft "investment pty" for rental. This is the best example of a *bubble*.
and you still think OCR are better buys ?
The high psf prices for small units are distorting URA's price index. If not for the small units in the mass market, prices would have fallen evenly in CCR, RCR and OCR.
and all the CASHBACK, furniture voucher, stamp duty rebate etc.. not reflected in caveat price. (Different developer does it differently)
Real stats:- the average size of new sales is now only 650sqft and OCR is 750sqft. This means if you know maths and assuming 70% of new sales is in OCR:-
(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650).
look the report says "median" not "average". u formula is not applicable. (I assume u understand the meaning of median ok?)
it's not I (or teddybear) am sensitive. you are. maybe u didn't realize. look what you insist in this post:
But even if they split MM units, I think it will affect CCR/RCR more. Because most OCR 1+1 units are still in the region of 600+sqft which is still larger than MM.
on the contrary, my interpretation of this report is this:
OCR buyers are now buying into MMs (or quasi MMs) hoping as "investment pty". aka FEO's watertown. Out of almost 5000 new OCR sales, more than half are <700 sqft "investment pty" for rental. This is the best example of a *bubble*.
I dun think this is an unreasonable conclusion. For the last 3 months, practically nil CCR new sale transactions. This report can even be seen as describing the OCR new sales at 90% accuracy.
and yes this has nothing to do with CCR/OCR who outperforms who issue (which is a separate a debate. and please, ABSD changes everything)
Search Results: 2072 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC), Executive Condominium
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012
---------
Search Results: 939 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC), Executive Condominium
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012
Based on URA, small homes of 70sqm max probably abt 50% of total new sales for OCR for q1 [Update to Mar 23]
Comparison to same qr last yr:
Search Results: 2352 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC), Executive Condominium
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Contract Date : JAN 2011 - MAR 2011
-------------------------
Search Results: 634 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC), Executive Condominium
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70
Contract Date : JAN 2011 - MAR 2011
from 27% last yr on Q1 to 50% this yr on Q1
Search Results: 41 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC)
Market Segment : Core Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012
------
Search Results: 18 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC)
Market Segment : Core Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012
Thanks.
BTW, what are all these term OCC,OCR etc mean? :beats-me-man:OCR - Outside Central Region; CCR - Core Central Region; RCR - Rest of Central Region. OCC - ???
Search Results: 41 record(s) retrieved
Market Segment : Core Central Region
------
Search Results: 18 record(s) retrieved
Market Segment : Core Central Region
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70
Thanks dtrax ! see WF, CCR new sale figures are basically negligible
OCR - Outside Central Region; CCR - Core Central Region; RCR - Rest of Central Region. OCC - ???
Thank you for the clarification.:)
Very funny, I can't imagine somebody can talk so much about data and statistics and seemingly able to conclude something and end up the basic fundamental data used to begin with are all wrong! :doh:
I am jumping up and down not over nothing because you are propogating wrong information and yet you said as though you are an expert and your conclusion is definitely right! (but end up proven wrong)! :scared-1:
why are you and teddybear ever so sensitive?
have you read the papers about downsizing? Real stats:- the average size of new sales is now only 650sqft and OCR is 750sqft. This means if you know maths and assuming 70% of new sales is in OCR:-
(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650). Assuming y is average size of CCR unit. Y is actually a very small number <500 sqft. Which means new sales in CCR is now very small units and slow to a trickle. Sometimes we have to dissect and interprete statistics right? Cannot just agree blindly with what the reporter says. And for goodness sake, nobody is bashing CCR. People are just analysing how and why CCR prices are going down. And even OCR wil follow suit once the unit size falls to "y".
I have no idea why you and teddybear and always jumping up and down over nothing. I'm indirectly telling the guy up there, don't buy if you buying for investments because size can't get any smaller already.
In fact, I like this forum because it has 3-4 years of past advice by different forummers. And on hindsight, you can tell who is more objective and predict better based on same set of stats.
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 16:02
Doesn't matter. still means the median CCR unit is smaller.
BTW, maybe your English is really bad. Average is a term used to measure of central tendency, e.g. mean, median etc are all averages, just different modes of computing average. So to use "average" to define median is CORRECT.
Now that you highlighted no transaction, I think the situation is more dire.
look the report says "median" not "average". u formula is not applicable. (I assume u understand the meaning of median ok?)
it's not I (or teddybear) am sensitive. you are. maybe u didn't realize. look what you insist in this post:
on the contrary, my interpretation of this report is this:
I dun think this is an unreasonable conclusion. For the last 3 months, practically nil CCR new sale transactions. This report can even be seen as describing the OCR new sales at 90% accuracy.
and yes this has nothing to do with CCR/OCR who outperforms who issue (which is a separate a debate. and please, ABSD changes everything)
Muz get the true pic, which I think is pretty obvious from all the rosy news article: CCR resale numbers are many times more than CCR new sales whereas OCR resale numbers are a fraction OCR new sales. The behavioral pattern from these 2 categories are totally different based on current buyer behavior. FT shunning, Upgraders/Mass market buyers chionging. Current resale for CCR doing well because of some transaction which presents a huge psf gap difference for OLD condo vs New condo which developers are not yet slashing new launch CCR units
BTW, maybe your English is really bad. Average is a term used to measure of central tendency, e.g. mean, median etc are all averages, just different modes of computing average. So to use "average" to define median is CORRECT.
wow you mean you REALLY dun know what a "median" is , as compared to "average" ?? :cool:
look, at the very minimum I expected you to say "oh sorry I made a mistake" and move on. but no you dun even acknowledge it.. and look at the kind of language u used :cool:
Average not equals to median. Particularly when you have a bunch of extremes, it will skew the median further from the average.
I am jumping up and down because you are propogating wrong information and yet you said as though you are an expert (EVEN AFTER proven wrong)!
this is how I felt ....
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 16:51
Average is NOT "Mean". Get it?
Average can be arithmetic mean, geometric mean, median, mode
Or did you guys confuse average with mean? :tsk-tsk:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average
First time I got to use wikipedia. Average is a measure of central tendency. Central tendency can be measured using various methods whichever is more appropriate. In this case, the average is computed using median. PERIOD. Still doesn't change the fact the average size of a CCR (using median methodology (if you guys need to be pedantic) is smaller.
Average not equals to median. Particularly when you have a bunch of extremes, it will skew the median further from the average.
Wow I am "impressed"! Somebody who say "median" "are all averages" and can "use "average" to define median is CORRECT" must be a superb linguists who are all out to impress! But oh no, a linguist can invent their own language and words but please don't use standard mathematical term out there like "median" and give them different meaning! :scared-1: :doh:
Doesn't matter. still means the median CCR unit is smaller.
BTW, maybe your English is really bad. Average is a term used to measure of central tendency, e.g. mean, median etc are all averages, just different modes of computing average. So to use "average" to define median is CORRECT.
Now that you highlighted no transaction, I think the situation is more dire.
Very funny ha ha ha! Use wikipedia? :banghead:
Did you check whether they got it wrong or not? :scared-1:
Average is NOT "Mean". Get it?
Average can be arithmetic mean, geometric mean, median, mode
Or did you guys confuse average with mean? :tsk-tsk:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average
First time I got to use wikipedia. Average is a measure of central tendency. Central tendency can be measured using various methods whichever is more appropriate. In this case, the average is computed using median. PERIOD. Still doesn't change the fact the average size of a CCR (using median methodology (if you guys need to be pedantic) is smaller.
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 16:59
Scroll down.
Very funny ha ha ha! Use wikipedia? :banghead:
Did you check whether they got it wrong or not? :scared-1:
Where in wikipedia they say specifically that "Average can be arithmetic mean, geometric mean, median, mode"? :doh:
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 17:01
You and amk really same same one track mind and pedantic.
Scroll down. There is more than one way of measurement of central tendency (i.e. average).
OK. Rephrase average PSF using median methodology ok? Really pedantic.
Very funny ha ha ha! Use wikipedia? :banghead:
Did you check whether they got it wrong or not? :scared-1:
Where in wikipedia they say specifically that "Average can be arithmetic mean, geometric mean, median, mode"? :doh:
let's do a math test:
(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650)
is this median or mean ?
why is it so difficult for you to say you misread the data ??
By Esther Teo, Property Reporter
Singapore home buyers are squeezing into ever smaller homes in order to be able to afford that prized apartment.
Figures show the median size of new homes sold in the three months to today is now a very cosy 667 sq ft - a touch smaller than a squash court.
Wildfalcon is correct. There are various websites and textbooks that gave the definition of Average. However, Average is often and almost always associated with the arithmetic mean. Even the formula in Excel defines he function of "=Average()" as the arithmetic mean. Hence, an advance level maths exam question will not ask the student to calculate the "average" but instead is very specific and ask for "mean", "median", "mode" etc etc.
Example of another website:
http://math.about.com/od/glossaryofterms/g/Definition-Of-Average.htm
Definition: This is a term that is used, mis-used and often over used. Typically, many individuals refer to average when they really mean the arithmetic average (mean). Average can mean the mean, the median and the mode, it can refer to a geometric mean and weighted averages.
Although most people use the term average for this type of calcuation:
Four tests results: 15, 18, 22, 20
The sum is: 75
Divide 75 by 4: 18.75
The 'Mean' (Average) is 18.75
(Often rounded to 19) The truth of the matter is that the above calculation is considered the arithmetic mean, or often referred to as the mean average.
Search Results: 2072 record(s) retrieved
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012
---------
Search Results: 939 record(s) retrieved
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012
Based on URA, small homes of 70sqm max probably abt 50% of total new sales for OCR for q1 [Update to Mar 23]
and dtrax even gave you the detail numbers. this is almost median by definition: median of OCR new sales is pathetically < 70sqm
what is wrong with you ??
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 17:10
Y = average CCR size (defined by median CCR size)
Get it? 750sqft is median OCR size. For the median countrywide size to be 650sqft, no matter how u twist and turn your maths hor, the median CCR size must be way smaller than 650sqft, esp when the weightage is more towards OCR. Think about it. I don't know the exact weightage because its not disclosed, but in life, got to make intelligent estimates, easily weighted 70% in OCR.
Agree to disagree. And I've not asked anyone to buy anywhere in the past year, including OCR.
let's do a math test:
is this median or mean ?
why is it so difficult for you to say you misread the data ??
By Esther Teo, Property Reporter
Singapore home buyers are squeezing into ever smaller homes in order to be able to afford that prized apartment.
Figures show the median size of new homes sold in the three months to today is now a very cosy 667 sq ft - a touch smaller than a squash court.
Ok ok, think I got tricked because when I look at your below equation:
(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650). Assuming y is average size of CCR unit. Y is actually a very small number <500 sqft.
and then look at the news story which says their data is "median", I don't know how you can use median and plug into the above equation. "Median" by itself, may have no calculable relation to other data in the data set (other than chronological order).
E.g. a set of data = 30 30 30 30 30 50 400 400 400 400 400
So the median is 50. Can you use average to arrive at 50? How to plug the 50 into equation like you show and show that is a statistic representative of the data set?
Y = average CCR size (defined by median CCR size)
Get it? 750sqft is median OCR size. For the median countrywide size to be 650sqft, no matter how u twist and turn your maths hor, the median CCR size must be way smaller than 650sqft, esp when the weightage is more towards OCR. Think about it. I don't know the exact weightage because its not disclosed, but in life, got to make intelligent estimates, easily weighted 70% in OCR.
Agree to disagree. And I've not asked anyone to buy anywhere in the past year, including OCR.
You and amk really same same one track mind and pedantic.
Scroll down. There is more than one way of measurement of central tendency (i.e. average).
OK. Rephrase average PSF using median methodology ok? Really pedantic.
why are you and teddybear ever so sensitive?
have you read the papers about downsizing? Real stats:- the average size of new sales is now only 650sqft and OCR is 750sqft. This means if you know maths and assuming 70% of new sales is in OCR:-
(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650). Assuming y is average size of CCR unit. Y is actually a very small number <500 sqft. Which means new sales in CCR is now very small units and slow to a trickle. Sometimes we have to dissect and interprete statistics right? Cannot just agree blindly with what the reporter says. And for goodness sake, nobody is bashing CCR. People are just analysing how and why CCR prices are going down. And even OCR wil follow suit once the unit size falls to "y".
I have no idea why you and teddybear and always jumping up and down over nothing. I'm indirectly telling the guy up there, don't buy if you buying for investments because size can't get any smaller already.
In fact, I like this forum because it has 3-4 years of past advice by different forummers. And on hindsight, you can tell who is more objective and predict better based on same set of stats.
I already told u, for 46 CCR transactions, such "statistics" is irrelevant, (because the sample rate is too low)
for 2000 OCR transactions, the statistics is very relevant. the median of that shows half of the OCR buyers are buying into "quasi-MMs".
and please, dun run away from your own formula: all the while you are doing arithmetic mean !
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 17:19
Dig out that article about size of OCR units have shrunk to 750sqft thereabouts. its not on internet. pls don't be pedantic and tell me it should be 764 (whatever in that article) and not 750. If I recall its higher than 750.
and dtrax even gave you the detail numbers. this is almost median by definition: median of OCR new sales is pathetically < 70sqm
what is wrong with you ??
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 17:22
You can't since we don't have all the info right? But its an intelligent guess.
No matter how u twist, the CCR average (as defined by median) has to be smaller for the national average to be smaller.
As to amk's point that the CCR sample size is too small and not meaningful, well, its up for you to interpret lah. Everyone interpret data differently. Some say up, some say down. We are here to share.
OK. back to topic.
Ok ok, think I got tricked because when I look at your below equation:
(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650). Assuming y is average size of CCR unit. Y is actually a very small number <500 sqft.
and then look at the news story which says their data is "median", I don't know how you can use median and plug into the above equation. "Median" by itself, may have no calculable relation to other data in the data set (other than chronological order).
E.g. a set of data = 30 30 30 30 30 50 400 400 400 400 400
So the median is 50. Can you use average to arrive at 50? How to plug the 50 into equation like you show and show that is a statistic representative of the data set?
pls, can u just say u r wrong ?
For the median countrywide size to be 650sqft, no matter how u twist and turn your maths hor, the median CCR size must be way smaller than 650sqft, esp when the weightage is more towards OCR.
for the median to move, there is NO NEED for CCR size to be "way smaller than 650". and there is NO WEIGHTAGE to speak about, at all.
That report, for all intent and purpose, describes current OCR buying phenomenon: half are buying for quasi-MMs for "investment". This is clear sign of bubble.
No need to drag CCR whatever in it. It's irrelevant.
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 17:40
I've read my original post to make sure I use the word "assumption" everywhere and I did. When you don't have all the information, you make assumptions to make educated guess right? That's life. And all the assumptions are there for you to see.
Frankly, the smallest units are in RCR (not CCR). And if you look at my orignal post, since I don't have RCR numbers, I lump CCR with RCR. We work with incomplete information all the time and make best out of it. That's life. There's no 100% accuracy. I'm sure if one wants to be pedantic, can find so many faults. But we were here to share different opinions.
And the general "message" I was trying to convey is, downsizing is causing the average PSF to go up. OCR is catching up with CCR/RCR with respect to downsizing, and one day OCR will suffer the same fate as prices in CCR/RCR. Period.
I already told u, for 46 CCR transactions, such "statistics" is irrelevant, (because the sample rate is too low)
for 2000 OCR transactions, the statistics is very relevant. the median of that shows half of the OCR buyers are buying into "quasi-MMs".
and please, dun run away from your own formula: all the while you are doing arithmetic mean !
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 17:42
It is relevant to other people. Do you understand? It is glaring in the article, that CCR prices have come down while OCR continues to go up. It appears that is a divergent trend which is abnormal. In fact, lots of researchers are talking about it. Is the divergence real? Is it going to continue? And for how long?
pls, can u just say u r wrong ?
for the median to move, there is NO NEED for CCR size to be "way smaller than 650". and there is NO WEIGHTAGE to speak about, at all.
That report, for all intent and purpose, describes current OCR buying phenomenon: half are buying for quasi-MMs for "investment". This is clear sign of bubble.
No need to drag CCR whatever in it. It's irrelevant.
Rosegarden
03-04-12, 18:37
It would be fair to assume that a reasonable person will take the word average to mean arithmetic mean in a normal sentence. If a person wants to say median, he should say median and not average. Likewise, if someone says "he traveled in a car", most reasonable persons will take it to mean motorcar and not railroad car.
:scared-2:
Condo Kaiser
03-04-12, 18:47
lol... nicely put....
Rosegarden
03-04-12, 18:51
BTW, isn't there a NUS Index that separately tracks MM and non-MM?
Actually I don't understand why many people buying OCR MMs got do with CCR and you insisting on saying that because OCR MMs are 750 sqft (or whatever) means CCR MMs must be smaller? :beats-me-man:
And OCR-CCR price divergence means divergence. What do you mean by divergence real or not? You mean URA manipulate the data otherwise why not real? :doh:
It is relevant to other people. Do you understand? It is glaring in the article, that CCR prices have come down while OCR continues to go up. It appears that is a divergent trend which is abnormal. In fact, lots of researchers are talking about it. Is the divergence real? Is it going to continue? And for how long?
Originally Posted by amk
pls, can u just say u r wrong ?
for the median to move, there is NO NEED for CCR size to be "way smaller than 650". and there is NO WEIGHTAGE to speak about, at all.
That report, for all intent and purpose, describes current OCR buying phenomenon: half are buying for quasi-MMs for "investment". This is clear sign of bubble.
No need to drag CCR whatever in it. It's irrelevant.
the divergence is real. this shows that CCR prices have peaked, but whether OCR has peaked is still unclear. and imho, OCR prices will continue to climb, which to me is normal. CCR prices is so out of reach all the time, and hence mass market will forever be in demand. unless CCR prices declines into a palatable level that mass market middle class can afford. otherwise, i don't see why mass market will go into CCR property.
It is relevant to other people. Do you understand? It is glaring in the article, that CCR prices have come down while OCR continues to go up. It appears that is a divergent trend which is abnormal. In fact, lots of researchers are talking about it. Is the divergence real? Is it going to continue? And for how long?
to use another analogy, the chicken rice stall will always have customers because the chicken rice is priced at $2.50. over the years chicken rice will just inch up, $2.55, then $2.60....$3.00. there is a huge customer base.
whereas the chicken rice restaurant at a hotel started selling its chicken rice at $25.00. at first a lot of tourists go and eat, but after that govt slap a tax of 10% i.e. total $27.50. tourists turned off, give up on eating the chicken rice. the restaurant lan lan, reduce to $22.00 people still think it's expensive, no customer.
meanwhile, the locals at the hawker centre are paying $4.50 for chicken rice at the food court within a year, they feel the pinch, but they also lan lan. would they start eating restaurant chicken rice at $22.00 since prices have dropped?
you know the answer. :banghead:
to use another analogy, the chicken rice stall will always have customers because the chicken rice is priced at $2.50. over the years chicken rice will just inch up, $2.55, then $2.60....$3.00. there is a huge customer base.
whereas the chicken rice restaurant at a hotel started selling its chicken rice at $25.00. at first a lot of tourists go and eat, but after that govt slap a tax of 10% i.e. total $27.50. tourists turned off, give up on eating the chicken rice. the restaurant lan lan, reduce to $22.00 people still think it's expensive, no customer.
meanwhile, the locals at the hawker centre are paying $4.50 for chicken rice at the food court within a year, they feel the pinch, but they also lan lan. would they start eating restaurant chicken rice at $22.00 since prices have dropped?
you know the answer. :banghead:
Agree.. Ocr quantum so much cheaper. Can never afford ccR if quantum remains.. Unless income rose sharply. It's all about affordability. Todays market also make those with spare cash be more prudent when it comes to spending big money. Ocr prices can risk la, at least they can still keep some spare cash after buying ocr..
to use another analogy, the chicken rice stall will always have customers because the chicken rice is priced at $2.50. over the years chicken rice will just inch up, $2.55, then $2.60....$3.00. there is a huge customer base.
whereas the chicken rice restaurant at a hotel started selling its chicken rice at $25.00. at first a lot of tourists go and eat, but after that govt slap a tax of 10% i.e. total $27.50. tourists turned off, give up on eating the chicken rice. the restaurant lan lan, reduce to $22.00 people still think it's expensive, no customer.
meanwhile, the locals at the hawker centre are paying $4.50 for chicken rice at the food court within a year, they feel the pinch, but they also lan lan. would they start eating restaurant chicken rice at $22.00 since prices have dropped?
you know the answer. :banghead:
Part 2
The prices at hawker centre continues to rise, from 4.50 to $8, while restaurant price drops to $18. In the meanwhile, the quantity of chicken rice at the hawker centre gets smaller and smaller while the plate gets larger and larger. And have to queue in the heat for the hawker centre stall some more... :simmering:
At what point do people realise that there's better value in the restaurant chicken rice?
Don't even need to use chicken rice, we use real property data:
1) Bedok Residences - $1500 psf! Ops!
2) Valley Park - $14xx psf! Ops!
CCR cheaper than OCR! Ops! Why people not buying CCR? No, it has nothing to do with price in terms of $PSF!
Why? Because BR absolute price cheaper? May be.
Because buyers got no CASH to renovate? May be.
Because buyers got no 40% CASH upfront and buy new launch to get 20% deferred payment and 5% CASH-BACK? May be.
Because the OCR Bedok Residences is new? Nah! This must be one of the most stupid reason! 5 years later become old! and left 94 years lease! Meanwhile, Valley Park is freehold, lease never expire, land price never depreciate!
Part 2
The prices at hawker centre continues to rise, from 4.50 to $8, while restaurant price drops to $18. In the meanwhile, the quantity of chicken rice at the hawker centre gets smaller and smaller while the plate gets larger and larger. And have to queue in the heat for the hawker centre stall some more... :simmering:
At what point do people realise that there's better value in the restaurant chicken rice?
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 21:18
I really think it is pedantic when so many people just harped on the word "average" when I obviously was recollecting an article and didn't have the exact word on hand. A normal person knows average can be based on different methodologies, be it weighted average, arithmetic mean or median. In fact I can tell you for sure, none of the index is EVER based on arithmetic MEAN, even though the word average is widely used. Most of the time, it is based on weighted on a basket of properties. Perhaps, this will open your eyes to different methodologies instead os assuming a reasonable person will assume everytime average means the entire population's arithmetic mean. Sorry, I believe an average person is more intelligent then that. Perhaps I over-estimated the quality of the forum.
Average index = arithmetic mean? Really? Think deeper. Learn statistics.
It would be fair to assume that a reasonable person will take the word average to mean arithmetic mean in a normal sentence. If a person wants to say median, he should say median and not average. Likewise, if someone says "he traveled in a car", most reasonable persons will take it to mean motorcar and not railroad car.
:scared-2:
eh, then my FH landed house in D15 also very cheap what, i ask for $1300 psf only why nobody buy leh?
quantum, my friend, quantum!
Don't even need to use chicken rice, we use real property data:
1) Bedok Residences - $1500 psf! Ops!
2) Valley Park - $14xx psf! Ops!
CCR cheaper than OCR! Ops! Why people not buying CCR? No, it has nothing to do with price in terms of $PSF!
Why? Because BR absolute price cheaper? May be.
Because buyers got no CASH to renovate? May be.
Because buyers got no 40% CASH upfront and buy new launch to get 20% deferred payment and 5% CASH-BACK? May be.
Because the OCR Bedok Residences is new? Nah! This must be one of the most stupid reason! 5 years later become old! and left 94 years lease! Meanwhile, Valley Park is freehold, lease never expire, land price never depreciate!
eh, then my FH landed house in D15 also very cheap what, i ask for $1300 psf only why nobody buy leh?
quantum, my friend, quantum!
Fully agree, quantum is the WORD
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 21:31
And the key point of the discussion is the divergence of the subsegments of the index which was my point. And I have a whole bunch of smart alec insisting that average has to mean arithmetic mean and nothing else (then we need statisticians?), as if that makes any difference to the observation that there is indeed divergence in the index. Perhaps the discussion can be more productive and not so pedantic.
Thank you.
WF I think u owe me an apology when u blatantly attack me personally along the line of "your English is so bad" etc etc, whereas eventually u r the one proven to have misunderstood the article. I even posted part of the original ST article where it clearly said "median". Dtrax even posted actual figures to show half of OCR new buys are small units. And Teddybear even had to write a long maths example to show you how silly your formula is. And you are still trying to find ways to justify your misunderstanding and even writing this "average" blah blah to insult people ?? :tsk-tsk:
Part 2
At what point do people realise that there's better value in the restaurant chicken rice?
i think all of the people realize their is better value in the restaurant chicken rice i.e. imported ingredients, cooked by 3* michelin chef, impeccable personalized service.
the question we shld be asking is, at what point can people AFFORD restaurant chicken rice?
Wild Falcon
03-04-12, 21:44
Perhaps. I think that's why while average* (oops!!!) PSF has gone up, it was reported that the average* quantum has already come down compared to a year ago.
*Pls refer to separate research report for definition and methodology for deriving "average" as it may vary.
Fully agree, quantum is the WORD
The gist of the matter is, you made an assertion based on a misunderstanding of a report. I pointed out to you the mistake. Instead of acknowledging it, you started churning out languages that are totally uncalled for. And upon proven wrong, you find ways to go around it and demand other people's goodwill to be understanding and go back to a "productive discussion".
You forgot to ask stalingrad? Think he got PhD in statistics?! :p
And the key point of the discussion is the divergence of the subsegments of the index which was my point. And I have a whole bunch of smart alec insisting that average has to mean arithmetic mean and nothing else (then we need statisticians?), as if that makes any difference to the observation that there is indeed divergence in the index. Perhaps the discussion can be more productive and not so pedantic.
Thank you.
Oh no, soon we will see 3BR private properties of <500 sqft! :scared-1:
eh, then my FH landed house in D15 also very cheap what, i ask for $1300 psf only why nobody buy leh?
quantum, my friend, quantum!
ya lor...in fact now 600sqft can squeeze 3BR.....LOL. 600sqft is the size of my balcony....:banghead:
Oh no, soon we will see 3BR private properties of <500 sqft! :scared-1:
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