View Full Version : How to id The property bubble
blackjack21trader
14-04-12, 14:43
Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.
BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?
The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.
This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.
Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. ALL the time, it will be too late liao.
Good Luck.
Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.
神龙股侠。
We are living in a global credit bubble. Wonder when it will burst? :scared-4:
Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.
BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?
The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.
This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.
Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. Most of the time, it will be too late liao.
Good Luck.
Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.
神龙股侠。
blackjack21trader
14-04-12, 14:48
We are living in a global credit bubble. Wonder when it will burst? :scared-4:
Well, brother DC33_2008, :( I wish I have the answer....but the sad fact is, I have no answer .
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHHAHAHAHAH
Japan gone on for 20 years. Still going on... Big brother can probably go on for at least 4 times of that. I will not be able to see it in my lifetime.
Well, brother DC33_2008, :( I wish I have the answer....but the sad fact is, I have no answer .
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHHAHAHAHAH
resale is a bubble formed already
Why? I thought it is new sale. Anyway, it is all boils down to credit.
resale is a bubble formed already
Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.
BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?
The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.
This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.
Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. ALL the time, it will be too late liao.
Good Luck.
Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.
神龙股侠。
in 2008, vista park 1 bedder asking for 480k, reduce to 400k. reduce to 380k..
got window-shoppers but no offers.
finally reduce to 340k, no one offered.. but me.
that's the market when prices keep reducing, pple just shop and wait for further discount..
Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.
BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?
The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.
This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.
Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. ALL the time, it will be too late liao.
Good Luck.
Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.
神龙股侠。
There is no "bubble" yet in Singapore's residential market and the government is taking steps to ensure the sector does not overheat, the city-state's senior statesman Lee Kuan Yew said on Friday.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2010/06/25/singapore-economy-property-idUKSGE65O0EV20100625
Look at history and you will know the first sign of bubble. There is no sign.
When the property is support by rental and low interest rate after 12 months it will be still the same.
Just need to pray to the Jesus. Ask and it will be given to you; seek and you will find; knock and the door will be opened to you.
There is no "bubble" yet in Singapore's residential market and the government is taking steps to ensure the sector does not overheat, the city-state's senior statesman Lee Kuan Yew said on Friday.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2010/06/25/singapore-economy-property-idUKSGE65O0EV20100625
Look at history and you will know the first sign of bubble. There is no sign.
When the property is support by rental and low interest rate after 12 months it will be still the same.
Just need to pray to the Jesus. Ask and it will be given to you; seek and you will find; knock and the door will be opened to you.
in year 2008 4th quarter, interest rate also pretty low.. 1.5%- 1.8% max.
pls correct me if % is wrong
phantom_opera
14-04-12, 15:35
Simple bishan indicator, if sky habitat sold out in 2 weeks at 1700psf
what are the effect of credit bubble? :D
what are the effect of credit bubble? :D
Huat Ah.:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
in year 2008 4th quarter, interest rate also pretty low.. 1.5%- 1.8% max.
pls correct me if % is wrong
http://www.brimg.net/images/charts/charticle-2.gif
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/federal-reserve/qe1-financial-crisis-timeline.aspx
The World don't know what is money printing then. QE3 coming soon :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
It started in 1968 and reagan the actor has really made it big time.
http://www.brimg.net/images/charts/charticle-2.gif
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/federal-reserve/qe1-financial-crisis-timeline.aspx
The World don't know what is money printing then. QE3 coming soon :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
siao sia...
Market participants with overvalued assets tend to spend more because they "feel" richer (the wealth effect). Many observers quote the housing market in the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Spain and parts of the United States in recent times, as an example of this effect.[citation needed] When the bubble inevitably bursts, those who hold on to these overvalued assets usually experience a feeling of reduced wealth and tend to cut discretionary spending at the same time, hindering economic growth or, worse, exacerbating the economic slowdown.:scared-3::scared-3::scared-3:
Very easy to spot a bubble:
when the gov officers keep telling u there is no bubble!
Be it Greenspan or L**
It can be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back... sending a sharp prick into the bubble.
And suddenly everyone realises that the emperor is not wearing any clothes.....
Simple bishan indicator, if sky habitat sold out in 2 weeks at 1700psf
in 2008, vista park 1 bedder asking for 480k, reduce to 400k. reduce to 380k..
got window-shoppers but no offers.
finally reduce to 340k, no one offered.. but me.
that's the market when prices keep reducing, pple just shop and wait for further discount..
So you the one who bought... I was looking at it too... Only concern was place very old... But huge plot.
Mediacorp has 3000 people moving around that area in 2015. Should not have problem renting it out at good yield.
So you the one who bought... I was looking at it too... Only concern was place very old... But huge plot.
So you the one who bought... I was looking at it too... Only concern was place very old... But huge plot.
i could bgt it at 320k, engaged into a price war with another agent's buyer..
How to spot a bubble ... very simple!
I believe most people here own properties.
So it makes the job easy.
List your property for sale, ask for 5% above last done.
Tell agent base price is last done.
Then sit back and wait to see if there is a bubble.
If you get offer --> market still healthy.
If you DONT get offer --> lower price by 5% see if you get offer.
If get, market is inching downwards but stable.
If u you still dont get offer after inching it down by more than 15%.
Then ... BUBBLED and its BURSTING!! !!!
Hope the above can help u !
DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool (even got bubble)
I think we are in the midst of a property bubble, but the government is taking care not to blow it up too much (controlled by the series of small CMs) nor allowing it to deflate too quickly (controlled via GLS reserve price and BTO's valuation). I'm afraid the Sky Habitat is setting a new benchmark and the rest of the market will follow soon.
The next project launching next week is the one at Bendemeer. Cannot be higher than this as they have no renowed architect.
I think we are in the midst of a property bubble, but the government is taking care not to blow it up too much (controlled by the series of small CMs) nor allowing it to deflate too quickly (controlled via GLS reserve price and BTO's valuation). I'm afraid the Sky Habitat is setting a new benchmark and the rest of the market will follow soon.
The next project launching next week is the one at Bendemeer. Cannot be higher than this as they have no renowed architect.
It just have to b slightly lower to draw e buyers.
If Caspian at Lake Side was remembered as the turning point for a bottom,
Sky Habitat will be remembered as the turning of a top.
If Caspian at Lake Side was remembered as the turning point for a bottom,
Sky Habitat will be remembered as the turning of a top.
dont worry FEO will not take it lying down!!!
blackjack21trader
15-04-12, 06:45
How to spot a bubble ... very simple!
I believe most people here own properties.
So it makes the job easy.
List your property for sale, ask for 5% above last done.
Tell agent base price is last done.
Then sit back and wait to see if there is a bubble.
If you get offer --> market still healthy.
If you DONT get offer --> lower price by 5% see if you get offer.
If get, market is inching downwards but stable.
If u you still dont get offer after inching it down by more than 15%.
Then ... BUBBLED and its BURSTING!! !!!
Hope the above can help u !
DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool (even got bubble)
Absolutely INGENIOUS ! Why I never thought of using that ! :)
Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.
BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?
The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.
This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.
Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. ALL the time, it will be too late liao.
Good Luck.
Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.
神龙股侠。
you seems to B a new convert. :D
if we had been crying that the sky is falling in2010, then most of us would not be staying in modest gain property.
at end 2011 , I too felt that the prices then was a tad high n the prices should moderate.
the fact that the key to the reserves was not called for suggest that it is bad but not dooms day bad.
however, during the last election , many changes has been in place. Adjustment to salary ceiling means more are going ec. Avalance of new bto and land that was bidded with high prices was also quickly sold by people who fear of missing the boat.
my take is that as long as the land parcel bid prices dun fall, prices will remain high. Its something like a fixed component of a car where coe is a x doallaer value. The build cost is fixed more or less. Labour cost is still going up marginally.
so how much can the prices moderated. I think the next wave where there are people buying and carefully considering the layout any prices will be the sign of stage 1 of the bubble. Stage 2 will be when price war begin but developer margin still intact. Stage 3 where is starts to burst is where share prices of the developer plunges and there are major loss incurred by developer. That time will be whenwe really start to B coverted as well :scared-2:
blackjack21trader
15-04-12, 08:30
you seems to B a new convert. :D
.......................... That time will be whenwe really start to B coverted as well :scared-2:
brother samuelk, me no B convert la:) Am merely explaining the signs of a pre-bubble from my own personal experience. It occurs to me to let the newbies here know the signs after I read an article on property bubbles. Not saying it is going to happen here or not.
If Caspian at Lake Side was remembered as the turning point for a bottom,
Sky Habitat will be remembered as the turning of a top.
Sky Habitat = Bishan 8 part 2 :D
How to spot a bubble ... very simple!
I believe most people here own properties.
So it makes the job easy.
List your property for sale, ask for 5% above last done.
Tell agent base price is last done.
Then sit back and wait to see if there is a bubble.
If you get offer --> market still healthy.
If you DONT get offer --> lower price by 5% see if you get offer.
If get, market is inching downwards but stable.
If u you still dont get offer after inching it down by more than 15%.
Then ... BUBBLED and its BURSTING!! !!!
Hope the above can help u !
DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool (even got bubble)
bro, need to factor in location too if using this technique...:o
I believe we can identify the propery bubble through the price and buyers profile. Propery bubble burst not just due to no buyers, but also force to sell.
When interest rate head north, how many of the current buyers need to liquidate, government knows the answer. We can only guess the answer, maybe with 70/80% accuracy.
How to spot a bubble ... very simple!
I believe most people here own properties.
So it makes the job easy.
List your property for sale, ask for 5% above last done.
Tell agent base price is last done.
Then sit back and wait to see if there is a bubble.
If you get offer --> market still healthy.
If you DONT get offer --> lower price by 5% see if you get offer.
If get, market is inching downwards but stable.
If u you still dont get offer after inching it down by more than 15%.
Then ... BUBBLED and its BURSTING!! !!!
Hope the above can help u !
DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool (even got bubble)
When you market at less 15% and no takers then it not bubbled and bursting.it WAS bubble and its bursted. You are already late.
Trick would be to know before it bursts. Which ain't easy.
The next project launching next week is the one at Bendemeer. Cannot be higher than this as they have no renowed architect.
Bendemeer and Bishan although both B have very different image and occupant profiles...
If Caspian at Lake Side was remembered as the turning point for a bottom,
Sky Habitat will be remembered as the turning of a top.
One is the deep sea and ocean. One is sky high. Sounds about right.
brother samuelk, me no B convert la:) Am merely explaining the signs of a pre-bubble from my own personal experience. It occurs to me to let the newbies here know the signs after I read an article on property bubbles. Not saying it is going to happen here or not.
no worries. Anything with smiley icon cannot be taken seriously. I mean you no malice.
I guess most buyers already know that the property prices is at its peak or start to go flat as some have mentioned. Lots of buyers I guess with spare cash could not accept that their money sitting in the bank with miserable interest and decided to dumb their money into property, snapping up those small units with low quantum. They are careful not to over commit. So those who are waiting for fire sale & inerest rates goes up, etc and bubble gum burst may need to be a bit patient.
Former has more potential for growth than the latter if former has lower asking price (20-25% lower). :)
Bendemeer and Bishan although both B have very different image and occupant profiles...
Back to 1997 when HK property price was at its peak, we were furiously debating whether we were in a bubble.
Looking back, the simple fact of more and more people starting to debate is a good sign of the bubble is going to bust.
Are we doing exact the same right now?
So we are at the peak!
bro, need to factor in location too if using this technique...:o
Tell u what u sell us ur prop at 15% below we help u gauge if its bubble or not?
Back to 1997 when HK property price was at its peak, we were furiously debating whether we were in a bubble.
Looking back, the simple fact of more and more people starting to debate is a good sign of the bubble is going to bust.
Are we doing exact the same right now?
So we are at the peak!
Those days queue up also can earn thousands of dollars overnight.
Is this happening?
If you guys look at the property price index, you will find a correlation betwwen the state of economy and the price of property. All crashes happens when economy crashes and unemployment is high. All bubbles form when economy is booming, employment is great and stock market is booming. So to determine when market will crash, very simple - next recession. The recession needs to be deep and long, for crash to take place. The 2008/9 was brief because recovery was fast. During recession, first thing to happen - people lose job. Then next they sell shares. Them they sell car, then finally sell house and downgrade. So, if recession don't take place and everybody has a job and economy is doing great, don't expect bubble to burst. This all boils down to supply and demand. Think about it - from 2004 till now, population increased by 1 million, where do you house all this influx of people? Every year, more then 20,000 marriages are registered but the number of hdb and condos do not match this figures. This price increase over the past years were due to increase in demand and inflation. I too feel the prices are high, but the next high should be higher then previous high taking inflation into account. Right now, we have just past 1997 high base on ura's price index. So don't under estimate this run. As for me, I am staying at the sidelines. Already quite vested, so not going in anymore.
Many people here are waiting for that moment. :D
If you guys look at the property price index, you will find a correlation betwwen the state of economy and the price of property. All crashes happens when economy crashes and unemployment is high. All bubbles form when economy is booming, employment is great and stock market is booming. So to determine when market will crash, very simple - next recession. The recession needs to be deep and long, for crash to take place. The 2008/9 was brief because recovery was fast. During recession, first thing to happen - people lose job. Then next they sell shares. Them they sell car, then finally sell house and downgrade. So, if recession don't take place and everybody has a job and economy is doing great, don't expect bubble to burst. This all boils down to supply and demand. Think about it - from 2004 till now, population increased by 1 million, where do you house all this influx of people? Every year, more then 20,000 marriages are registered but the number of hdb and condos do not match this figures. This price increase over the past years were due to increase in demand and inflation. I too feel the prices are high, but the next high should be higher then previous high taking inflation into account. Right now, we have just past 1997 high base on ura's price index. So don't under estimate this run. As for me, I am staying at the sidelines. Already quite vested, so not going in anymore.
Tell u what u sell us ur prop at 15% below we help u gauge if its bubble or not?
sure or not? on what assumption did u base on that 15% lower that u will be able to eat it up? some old resale unit Now at some out of place location 15% below valuation (again valuation is not like HDB)also hard to find buyer...some old resale units at good location, 5% lower u can still get generate some interest.. again generate interest does not mean it is translated into real sale or transaction(window shopping also can rite?)...:p
I suggesting counting the no. of adds in the papers. i.e. property ads verses electronic ads or verses news.
This SAT the no. of Property Ads are amazing ! A lot!
I think alot of resale unit sellers who are serious to sell their units are trying every possible way to get rid of their units ASAP..be it their tenanted or own stay unit if they are serious to sell.. some unit is even advertised by mulitple agents and turning up to be the same unit...:p They are not sitting in the dark they are aware of the market situation now which news is galore frequently on the property market trend....:p
blackjack21trader
15-04-12, 17:40
If you guys look at the property price index, you will find a correlation betwwen the state of economy and the price of property. All crashes happens when economy crashes and unemployment is high. All bubbles form when economy is booming, employment is great and stock market is booming. So to determine when market will crash, very simple - next recession. The recession needs to be deep and long, for crash to take place. The 2008/9 was brief because recovery was fast. During recession, first thing to happen - people lose job. Then next they sell shares. Them they sell car, then finally sell house and downgrade. So, if recession don't take place and everybody has a job and economy is doing great, don't expect bubble to burst. This all boils down to supply and demand. Think about it - from 2004 till now, population increased by 1 million, where do you house all this influx of people? Every year, more then 20,000 marriages are registered but the number of hdb and condos do not match this figures. This price increase over the past years were due to increase in demand and inflation. I too feel the prices are high, but the next high should be higher then previous high taking inflation into account. Right now, we have just past 1997 high base on ura's price index. So don't under estimate this run. As for me, I am staying at the sidelines. Already quite vested, so not going in anymore.
very great insight ! bumpz up
many Mr B wannabe here? :D
anyway, if your head is not big ..don't wear so big hat lor..just sit back & do your usual stuff...ignore the market.. :D
The 1M population are NOT residents, you will be surprised to see how fast they disappear when recession comes. (And unemployed Singaporean voters will cry to throw them out - regardless the actual result is a much smaller economy pie.)
It is already happening to those with S$10M (FIS program is gone!)
So if it is that simple... may I humbly ask are we in a bubble now?
if yes... why?
if no.... why not?
Can't answer right?.... because it is not simple at all... what you have just stated are simply the effects of a recession of which a property crash is one among other effects like unemployment.
IMHO, I think what you have pointed out does not help in identifying a bubble at all. When the things you say happens, it is already overtaken by events.
If you guys look at the property price index, you will find a correlation betwwen the state of economy and the price of property. All crashes happens when economy crashes and unemployment is high. All bubbles form when economy is booming, employment is great and stock market is booming. So to determine when market will crash, very simple - next recession. The recession needs to be deep and long, for crash to take place. The 2008/9 was brief because recovery was fast. During recession, first thing to happen - people lose job. Then next they sell shares. Them they sell car, then finally sell house and downgrade. So, if recession don't take place and everybody has a job and economy is doing great, don't expect bubble to burst. This all boils down to supply and demand. Think about it - from 2004 till now, population increased by 1 million, where do you house all this influx of people? Every year, more then 20,000 marriages are registered but the number of hdb and condos do not match this figures. This price increase over the past years were due to increase in demand and inflation. I too feel the prices are high, but the next high should be higher then previous high taking inflation into account. Right now, we have just past 1997 high base on ura's price index. So don't under estimate this run. As for me, I am staying at the sidelines. Already quite vested, so not going in anymore.
The 1M population are NOT residents, you will be surprised to see how fast they disappear when recession comes. (And unemployed Singaporean voters will cry to throw them out - regardless the actual result is a much smaller economy pie.)
It is already happening to those with S$10M (FIS program is gone!)
You are right. But Over the past few yrs, where do u house this people? That's why prices shot up. If you are looking for price drop, u need to figure out when they will leave- that is during recession when companies retrench.
In 08 lehman crisis, I thot this round will be bad and waited. Then us pulled the QE stunt, stocks started shooting up and before u know it, properties started shooting. So I changed tact and went in to snap clover in 09. In 10, bot gardens at bishan at a steal while waiting for Cheung kong to launch Thomson grand.
So if u want to see massive price drop, a long deep recession is required. If not, u wll only see a dip and things will bounce back.
When us and Europe is down, everyone will bang on Asia. Remember during the 1997 when Asia was done, capital flight took to us... Now it is the reverse. So I think Asia will continue to do well for the next 2 yrs. but remember, when things change your plan needs to change. Don't be stubborn. See everything and re-evaluate on a periodic basis and change course if situation changes. Like the previous QEs.
The 1M population are NOT residents, you will be surprised to see how fast they disappear when recession comes. (And unemployed Singaporean voters will cry to throw them out - regardless the actual result is a much smaller economy pie.)
It is already happening to those with S$10M (FIS program is gone!)
not sure about them leaving. But I do know one angmo who was retrenched. They normally still have like a month kind of thing even whenthey are serve the notice from where I used to work.
so I ask what is his plans and would he be heading back to australia.
the reply was in au is even worst as the job are less and takes a fair bit longer as they need to do all sort of checks before they get employed.
+ the family is here. What surprise me was, he then decided to take up a PR in singapore and that helps extend his stay.
so unless this is a strategy to get many of them to reconsider yheir PR status, this is one way to get more FT to turn PR.
he was also commenting that been angmo is a leg up as the local are more submissive and normally do what he ask. So its easier to work in sg thenanywhere else especially bad is HK.
so for hk to still be able to commend a premium over sg in the long run may soon be normallise.
blackjack21trader
15-04-12, 20:12
You are right. But Over the past few yrs, where do u house this people? That's why prices shot up. If you are looking for price drop, u need to figure out when they will leave- that is during recession when companies retrench.
In 08 lehman crisis, I thot this round will be bad and waited. Then us pulled the QE stunt, stocks started shooting up and before u know it, properties started shooting. So I changed tact and went in to snap clover in 09. In 10, bot gardens at bishan at a steal while waiting for Cheung kong to launch Thomson grand.
So if u want to see massive price drop, a long deep recession is required. If not, u wll only see a dip and things will bounce back.
When us and Europe is down, everyone will bang on Asia. Remember during the 1997 when Asia was done, capital flight took to us... Now it is the reverse. So I think Asia will continue to do well for the next 2 yrs. but remember, when things change your plan needs to change. Don't be stubborn. See everything and re-evaluate on a periodic basis and change course if situation changes. Like the previous QEs.
I knew it ! the way you replied in your previous post. I already know u are a seasoned investors liao lor.
PS: Not trying to 3-legged you hor...WOAAHHAHAHAHAH
speculator
15-04-12, 23:20
You are right. But Over the past few yrs, where do u house this people? That's why prices shot up. If you are looking for price drop, u need to figure out when they will leave- that is during recession when companies retrench.
In 08 lehman crisis, I thot this round will be bad and waited. Then us pulled the QE stunt, stocks started shooting up and before u know it, properties started shooting. So I changed tact and went in to snap clover in 09. In 10, bot gardens at bishan at a steal while waiting for Cheung kong to launch Thomson grand.
So if u want to see massive price drop, a long deep recession is required. If not, u wll only see a dip and things will bounce back.
When us and Europe is down, everyone will bang on Asia. Remember during the 1997 when Asia was done, capital flight took to us... Now it is the reverse. So I think Asia will continue to do well for the next 2 yrs. but remember, when things change your plan needs to change. Don't be stubborn. See everything and re-evaluate on a periodic basis and change course if situation changes. Like the previous QEs.
One of the best sensible posting... Good one
Did the same during Europe crisis. Before Greece collapse they pulled out LTRO.
Now don't know what new tricks again by ECB for Spain
Each time they end up causing inflation to rise
If you guys look at the property price index, you will find a correlation betwwen the state of economy and the price of property. All crashes happens when economy crashes and unemployment is high. All bubbles form when economy is booming, employment is great and stock market is booming. So to determine when market will crash, very simple - next recession. The recession needs to be deep and long, for crash to take place. The 2008/9 was brief because recovery was fast. During recession, first thing to happen - people lose job. Then next they sell shares. Them they sell car, then finally sell house and downgrade. So, if recession don't take place and everybody has a job and economy is doing great, don't expect bubble to burst. This all boils down to supply and demand. Think about it - from 2004 till now, population increased by 1 million, where do you house all this influx of people? Every year, more then 20,000 marriages are registered but the number of hdb and condos do not match this figures. This price increase over the past years were due to increase in demand and inflation. I too feel the prices are high, but the next high should be higher then previous high taking inflation into account. Right now, we have just past 1997 high base on ura's price index. So don't under estimate this run. As for me, I am staying at the sidelines. Already quite vested, so not going in anymore.
Finally see someone posted this. :cheers4:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_cG9b-pC70Aw/SaDBoiqUXQI/AAAAAAAAAII/bFE4BndgzhE/s1600/overall.png
http://market-uncle.blogspot.fr/2009/02/property-prices-how-much-lower-can-it.html
http://www.asiaone.com/static/business/gallery/110613_charts/images/pic1.jpg
http://www.asiaone.com/static/business/gallery/110613_charts/images/pic2.jpg
http://www.asiaone.com/static/business/gallery/110613_charts/images/pic3.jpg
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My%2BMoney/Property/Story/A1Story20110613-283799/4.html
http://www.um.mo/fba/irer/papers/past/vol1_pdf/045-063Sing.pdf
Shortly after the completion of this paper, the government announced first a reduction of land to be sold in 1998, and later a complete deferral of remaining land to be sold this year to next year. The window for completion of 99-year leasehold projects was extended from five to eight years with a substantial reduction of the penalty for delays. These measures lead to a cutback in the immediate and future supply, which is partly what the developers asked for in order to maintain the price level.
http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2149&context=soe_research
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2d9z2jxJ5bQ/T4ssHz9gLLI/AAAAAAAAHPM/ALz50i84jig/s1600/gdp.JPG
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My+Money/Property/Story/A1Story20100426-212422.html
And as a result of the very low interest rates today, an investor who takes up an 80 per cent loan to be paid off over 30 years can entirely service his or her monthly mortgage payment from the rental income. Here, the mortgage rate is calculated based on the one-year interbank rate plus 1.5 percentage points.
Based on URA's numbers, the median price of an apartment in the first quarter of 2010 was $9,952 per sq metre (psm), and for condominiums, $10,490 psm. Let's take the average of the two to represent the median price of a non-landed property. That works out to $10,221 psm. A 100 sq metre unit would cost some $1.02 million. Assume that an 80 per cent loan is taken and that the housing loan rate is 1.5 percentage points above the interbank rate, which was at 0.625 per cent. For a $818,000 loan on a 2.125 per cent interest over 30 years, the monthly mortgage payment is $3,074.
On the rental side, the median for a non-landed private property is $34.06 psm per month. So the rental income from a 100 sq metre unit would be $3,406. That more than covers the mortgage payment. However, additional expenses relating to owning a property like property tax or property maintenance are not taken into consideration.
http://www.capitalandinside.com/index.php/investment/620-taming-the-singapore-housing-market
Developers will be leery of bidding aggressively for new land.In addition to the measures above, the IRAS will also levy the ABSD on developers if they fail to sell all the units in a residential project within five years. Developers will thus be more careful about stocking up on land bank unless they are sure they can develop and sell it within that timeframe. Developers are also incentivized to cut prices to move inventory if they are approaching this deadline. As the ABSD is based on land price, the impact is likely to be less significant versus general sentiment and investment interest.
http://www.propwise.sg/additional-buyer%E2%80%99s-stamp-duty-%E2%80%93-the-straw-that-breaks-the-camel%E2%80%99s-back/
Getty goh's again....go into the link and scroll down...:p
http://www.propwise.sg/getting-perspective-on-the-property-market-numbers/
Haha, read already like never read. Still doesn't explain whether to buy or not to buy.
regency321
16-04-12, 08:47
Haha, read already like never read. Still doesn't explain whether to buy or not to buy.
It means he also doesn't know what's going on. But still need to publish that regular newsletter so bo bian poop a pile of sh.it to fool readers.
Haha, read already like never read. Still doesn't explain whether to buy or not to buy.
ha ha ....interpretation of Getty's report is the reader's JOB lol ...:p
Here is my take on the property market as of now.
Those who bought a few years ago are already up on their property purchase. They paid a down payment anywhere from 0% to 20% and would have collected a fair bit on their rental over the past few years. If they have saved, this money will be good for rainy days.
Those who bought recently as investment would have downed 40% as down payment. This group of people have holding power.
The above group have holding power. They would have technically saved for 6 months of contingency in the event of losing their job. So, if the economy tanks for more then 2 quarters,and people start losing their job, you will see major correction only after 6 months. That's why during the Lehman period, there was only a few fire sales and this were snapped up by people with connections with property agents and this sales mainly involved quick cash exchange. I was expecting the recession to last longer then 6 months but it reversed so quickly. Thus I changed tactics and bot in 09.
So, if you guys are looking at a minor recession, like Lehman period, don't expect a big crash across many properties. Only a few fire sales.
1997 was a long recession thus prices continued to drop across many units and likewise for SARs period.
Next, I will bring you guys back in time. In 1988, a colleague of mind sold his semi d in katong for 500k expecting the prices to drop. He rented for many years but the prices crept up all the way to 1996. He bot an apartment in 1995(there abouts). Count the rental he paid. And on top of that, he bought the apartment at a higher price than his semi-d or about that amount. During that time, people were saying, how can a semi d be 1 mil. No way. Today it is 3mil and above. In 1990, lagoon view was going for 270k. Who would have thot that it is worth >1mil today. I remember my friend bought waterside for 800k in 1991. Today it is worth >3mil. Inflation causes the above. Check out coke, bread, noodle price every 10 years from today and compare the price.
There will be ups and downs for sure. You need to identify when the down will be but always review as things changes. Nothing is constant. When recession happens, you have evaluate. If the governments all come together and pump money, do you expect the economy to get better. Like QE. I really did not expect the US government to act as such. When they did, I expected the economy will pick up thus, I had no choice but to change my mindset.
So, there are tell tale signs, but remember, always re-evaluate your position regularly. Don't be stubborn and say the price will always go up. I am looking at 2014 to be a critical point as the fed will review interest rate and Greece next payment is due then. I will also be looking out for signs on a regular basis to realign my position on the economy. No one can predict for sure when the economy will tank and stick to it.
Finally, think about it. The US have pumped so much money, do you think they will make the same mistake they made like the great depression period. During that period, they pumped a lot of money. They thot things were good and they stopped pumping money which resulted in the great depression which lasted 4 years.
Well said.. thumbs up for you :):)
Here is my take on the property market as of now.
Those who bought a few years ago are already up on their property purchase. They paid a down payment anywhere from 0% to 20% and would have collected a fair bit on their rental over the past few years. If they have saved, this money will be good for rainy days.
Those who bought recently as investment would have downed 40% as down payment. This group of people have holding power.
The above group have holding power. They would have technically saved for 6 months of contingency in the event of losing their job. So, if the economy tanks for more then 2 quarters,and people start losing their job, you will see major correction only after 6 months. That's why during the Lehman period, there was only a few fire sales and this were snapped up by people with connections with property agents and this sales mainly involved quick cash exchange. I was expecting the recession to last longer then 6 months but it reversed so quickly. Thus I changed tactics and bot in 09.
So, if you guys are looking at a minor recession, like Lehman period, don't expect a big crash across many properties. Only a few fire sales.
1997 was a long recession thus prices continued to drop across many units and likewise for SARs period.
Next, I will bring you guys back in time. In 1988, a colleague of mind sold his semi d in katong for 500k expecting the prices to drop. He rented for many years but the prices crept up all the way to 1996. He bot an apartment in 1995(there abouts). Count the rental he paid. And on top of that, he bought the apartment at a higher price than his semi-d or about that amount. During that time, people were saying, how can a semi d be 1 mil. No way. Today it is 3mil and above. In 1990, lagoon view was going for 270k. Who would have thot that it is worth >1mil today. I remember my friend bought waterside for 800k in 1991. Today it is worth >3mil. Inflation causes the above. Check out coke, bread, noodle price every 10 years from today and compare the price.
There will be ups and downs for sure. You need to identify when the down will be but always review as things changes. Nothing is constant. When recession happens, you have evaluate. If the governments all come together and pump money, do you expect the economy to get better. Like QE. I really did not expect the US government to act as such. When they did, I expected the economy will pick up thus, I had no choice but to change my mindset.
So, there are tell tale signs, but remember, always re-evaluate your position regularly. Don't be stubborn and say the price will always go up. I am looking at 2014 to be a critical point as the fed will review interest rate and Greece next payment is due then. I will also be looking out for signs on a regular basis to realign my position on the economy. No one can predict for sure when the economy will tank and stick to it.
Finally, think about it. The US have pumped so much money, do you think they will make the same mistake they made like the great depression period. During that period, they pumped a lot of money. They thot things were good and they stopped pumping money which resulted in the great depression which lasted 4 years.
speculator
20-04-12, 22:11
Here is my take on the property market as of now.
Those who bought a few years ago are already up on their property purchase. They paid a down payment anywhere from 0% to 20% and would have collected a fair bit on their rental over the past few years. If they have saved, this money will be good for rainy days.
Those who bought recently as investment would have downed 40% as down payment. This group of people have holding power.
The above group have holding power. They would have technically saved for 6 months of contingency in the event of losing their job. So, if the economy tanks for more then 2 quarters,and people start losing their job, you will see major correction only after 6 months. That's why during the Lehman period, there was only a few fire sales and this were snapped up by people with connections with property agents and this sales mainly involved quick cash exchange. I was expecting the recession to last longer then 6 months but it reversed so quickly. Thus I changed tactics and bot in 09.
So, if you guys are looking at a minor recession, like Lehman period, don't expect a big crash across many properties. Only a few fire sales.
1997 was a long recession thus prices continued to drop across many units and likewise for SARs period.
Next, I will bring you guys back in time. In 1988, a colleague of mind sold his semi d in katong for 500k expecting the prices to drop. He rented for many years but the prices crept up all the way to 1996. He bot an apartment in 1995(there abouts). Count the rental he paid. And on top of that, he bought the apartment at a higher price than his semi-d or about that amount. During that time, people were saying, how can a semi d be 1 mil. No way. Today it is 3mil and above. In 1990, lagoon view was going for 270k. Who would have thot that it is worth >1mil today. I remember my friend bought waterside for 800k in 1991. Today it is worth >3mil. Inflation causes the above. Check out coke, bread, noodle price every 10 years from today and compare the price.
There will be ups and downs for sure. You need to identify when the down will be but always review as things changes. Nothing is constant. When recession happens, you have evaluate. If the governments all come together and pump money, do you expect the economy to get better. Like QE. I really did not expect the US government to act as such. When they did, I expected the economy will pick up thus, I had no choice but to change my mindset.
So, there are tell tale signs, but remember, always re-evaluate your position regularly. Don't be stubborn and say the price will always go up. I am looking at 2014 to be a critical point as the fed will review interest rate and Greece next payment is due then. I will also be looking out for signs on a regular basis to realign my position on the economy. No one can predict for sure when the economy will tank and stick to it.
Finally, think about it. The US have pumped so much money, do you think they will make the same mistake they made like the great depression period. During that period, they pumped a lot of money. They thot things were good and they stopped pumping money which resulted in the great depression which lasted 4 years.
:cheers5:
change tactic and reevaluate position is the key. Nicely said
can someone post this in Basic's thread. :banghead:
blackjack21trader
21-04-12, 08:17
Here is my take on the property market as of now.
Those who bought a few years ago are already up on their property purchase. They paid a down payment anywhere from 0% to 20% and would have collected a fair bit on their rental over the past few years. If they have saved, this money will be good for rainy days.
Those who bought recently as investment would have downed 40% as down payment. This group of people have holding power.
The above group have holding power. They would have technically saved for 6 months of contingency in the event of losing their job. So, if the economy tanks for more then 2 quarters,and people start losing their job, you will see major correction only after 6 months. That's why during the Lehman period, there was only a few fire sales and this were snapped up by people with connections with property agents and this sales mainly involved quick cash exchange. I was expecting the recession to last longer then 6 months but it reversed so quickly. Thus I changed tactics and bot in 09.
So, if you guys are looking at a minor recession, like Lehman period, don't expect a big crash across many properties. Only a few fire sales.
1997 was a long recession thus prices continued to drop across many units and likewise for SARs period.
Next, I will bring you guys back in time. In 1988, a colleague of mind sold his semi d in katong for 500k expecting the prices to drop. He rented for many years but the prices crept up all the way to 1996. He bot an apartment in 1995(there abouts). Count the rental he paid. And on top of that, he bought the apartment at a higher price than his semi-d or about that amount. During that time, people were saying, how can a semi d be 1 mil. No way. Today it is 3mil and above. In 1990, lagoon view was going for 270k. Who would have thot that it is worth >1mil today. I remember my friend bought waterside for 800k in 1991. Today it is worth >3mil. Inflation causes the above. Check out coke, bread, noodle price every 10 years from today and compare the price.
There will be ups and downs for sure. You need to identify when the down will be but always review as things changes. Nothing is constant. When recession happens, you have evaluate. If the governments all come together and pump money, do you expect the economy to get better. Like QE. I really did not expect the US government to act as such. When they did, I expected the economy will pick up thus, I had no choice but to change my mindset.
So, there are tell tale signs, but remember, always re-evaluate your position regularly. Don't be stubborn and say the price will always go up. I am looking at 2014 to be a critical point as the fed will review interest rate and Greece next payment is due then. I will also be looking out for signs on a regular basis to realign my position on the economy. No one can predict for sure when the economy will tank and stick to it.
Finally, think about it. The US have pumped so much money, do you think they will make the same mistake they made like the great depression period. During that period, they pumped a lot of money. They thot things were good and they stopped pumping money which resulted in the great depression which lasted 4 years.
brother chestnut ! you certainly deserved to stay in chestnut drive ! You make this so clear and easily grasped. Thanks !:)
Clear and Concise! Chestnut. :)
Here is my take on the property market as of now.
Those who bought a few years ago are already up on their property purchase. They paid a down payment anywhere from 0% to 20% and would have collected a fair bit on their rental over the past few years. If they have saved, this money will be good for rainy days.
Those who bought recently as investment would have downed 40% as down payment. This group of people have holding power.
The above group have holding power. They would have technically saved for 6 months of contingency in the event of losing their job. So, if the economy tanks for more then 2 quarters,and people start losing their job, you will see major correction only after 6 months. That's why during the Lehman period, there was only a few fire sales and this were snapped up by people with connections with property agents and this sales mainly involved quick cash exchange. I was expecting the recession to last longer then 6 months but it reversed so quickly. Thus I changed tactics and bot in 09.
So, if you guys are looking at a minor recession, like Lehman period, don't expect a big crash across many properties. Only a few fire sales.
1997 was a long recession thus prices continued to drop across many units and likewise for SARs period.
Next, I will bring you guys back in time. In 1988, a colleague of mind sold his semi d in katong for 500k expecting the prices to drop. He rented for many years but the prices crept up all the way to 1996. He bot an apartment in 1995(there abouts). Count the rental he paid. And on top of that, he bought the apartment at a higher price than his semi-d or about that amount. During that time, people were saying, how can a semi d be 1 mil. No way. Today it is 3mil and above. In 1990, lagoon view was going for 270k. Who would have thot that it is worth >1mil today. I remember my friend bought waterside for 800k in 1991. Today it is worth >3mil. Inflation causes the above. Check out coke, bread, noodle price every 10 years from today and compare the price.
There will be ups and downs for sure. You need to identify when the down will be but always review as things changes. Nothing is constant. When recession happens, you have evaluate. If the governments all come together and pump money, do you expect the economy to get better. Like QE. I really did not expect the US government to act as such. When they did, I expected the economy will pick up thus, I had no choice but to change my mindset.
So, there are tell tale signs, but remember, always re-evaluate your position regularly. Don't be stubborn and say the price will always go up. I am looking at 2014 to be a critical point as the fed will review interest rate and Greece next payment is due then. I will also be looking out for signs on a regular basis to realign my position on the economy. No one can predict for sure when the economy will tank and stick to it.
Finally, think about it. The US have pumped so much money, do you think they will make the same mistake they made like the great depression period. During that period, they pumped a lot of money. They thot things were good and they stopped pumping money which resulted in the great depression which lasted 4 years.
thanks for the excellent post, chestnut..
me saving up money for my first home until 2014.. :o
see can hoot any cheaper home to start my family or not.. :ashamed1:
thanks for the excellent post, chestnut..
me saving up money for my first home until 2014.. :o
see can hoot any cheaper home to start my family or not.. :ashamed1:
This run up in prices from 2005 was due to afew reason:
1. What comes down will go up. What goes up will come down. 2005 was at lowest point.
2. Economy was doing well.
3. Demand was more than supply.
Check this out. Population in 2005 was 4.265mil and 2011 was 5.183 = 0.918mil. No of resident = 1.146mil. As for the 2005, you will need to find out the figure. You should find tha the number of population outstrips the number of house available.
If you looking at your first home, remember this.
1. When the prices are high, buy hdb... So when the prices drop, your loss is lower. But if the prices go up, at least you are vested.
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.
Do your homework and you will be more confident with your investments.
This run up in prices from 2005 was due to afew reason:
1. What comes down will go up. What goes up will come down. 2005 was at lowest point.
2. Economy was doing well.
3. Demand was more than supply.
Check this out. Population in 2005 was 4.265mil and 2011 was 5.183 = 0.918mil. No of resident = 1.146mil. As for the 2005, you will need to find out the figure. You should find tha the number of population outstrips the number of house available.
If you looking at your first home, remember this.
1. When the prices are high, buy hdb... So when the prices drop, your loss is lower. But if the prices go up, at least you are vested.
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.
Do your homework and you will be more confident with your investments.
hindsight is 20/20.
based on current situation, people can buy until 2014, that's when US review the rates?
hindsight is 20/20.
based on current situation, people can buy until 2014, that's when US review the rates?
1. US recession started in dec 2007and ended Jun 09.so we should see US doing well. They have already pump inso much money, so if they do see signs of a slow down, they will pump in more money. So US in my opinions out of the equation of a recession.
2. Europe is a major concern. Spain's next payment is 2014. The issue is what about spain and the rest of EU. We do not understand it well enough. Just like the subprime and the CDOs.
3. Asia, as of now, the money is flowing into Asia. The question is when it will flow out and to get out before it does.
So if each region takes turn, it should be ok. The timeline of 2014 is critical but you need to watch out for other timeline. You need to watch out for the rest of eu.
Right now, do you see everyone talking about stocks? Aunts, uncle? When retired uncle and aunts start playing shares, bubble is about to burst.... We did not see that.
Tis time, the government CM is tremendous, so the thing stopping the bull run is all the CM. The prices have doubled since 2005. Will it double for the next 6 yrs is anyones guess but my opinion is very, very, very unlikely as the gov will intervene. So I see minimal meat.
This run up in prices from 2005 was due to afew reason:
1. What comes down will go up. What goes up will come down. 2005 was at lowest point.
2. Economy was doing well.
3. Demand was more than supply.
Check this out. Population in 2005 was 4.265mil and 2011 was 5.183 = 0.918mil. No of resident = 1.146mil. As for the 2005, you will need to find out the figure. You should find tha the number of population outstrips the number of house available.
If you looking at your first home, remember this.
1. When the prices are high, buy hdb... So when the prices drop, your loss is lower. But if the prices go up, at least you are vested.
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.
Do your homework and you will be more confident with your investments.
thanks bro for the great advice!! :cheers5:
i will probably go for a resale HDB first to enjoy my entitlement...lol:D
thanks bro for the great advice!! :cheers5:
i will probably go for a resale HDB first to enjoy my entitlement...lol:D
That is very wise. Go for resale HDB, biggest you can find with a good layout and no odd corners etc. Would be useful to get it near intended sch for your (future) kids. BIG resale unit will become a rarity in the future as the HDBs are also shrinking like the pte condos. BIG also means easier to rent out if you need to in the future.
starrynight
22-04-12, 09:27
Fully agree.
The other takeaway from your post, to me at least, is that one should not play the property market with the property you need to sleep in every night. I know too many friends who sold, thinking the prices will drop, but instead lose on (i) rental paid and/or (ii) price increase instead.
Here is my take on the property market as of now.
Those who bought a few years ago are already up on their property purchase. They paid a down payment anywhere from 0% to 20% and would have collected a fair bit on their rental over the past few years. If they have saved, this money will be good for rainy days.
Those who bought recently as investment would have downed 40% as down payment. This group of people have holding power.
The above group have holding power. They would have technically saved for 6 months of contingency in the event of losing their job. So, if the economy tanks for more then 2 quarters,and people start losing their job, you will see major correction only after 6 months. That's why during the Lehman period, there was only a few fire sales and this were snapped up by people with connections with property agents and this sales mainly involved quick cash exchange. I was expecting the recession to last longer then 6 months but it reversed so quickly. Thus I changed tactics and bot in 09.
So, if you guys are looking at a minor recession, like Lehman period, don't expect a big crash across many properties. Only a few fire sales.
1997 was a long recession thus prices continued to drop across many units and likewise for SARs period.
Next, I will bring you guys back in time. In 1988, a colleague of mind sold his semi d in katong for 500k expecting the prices to drop. He rented for many years but the prices crept up all the way to 1996. He bot an apartment in 1995(there abouts). Count the rental he paid. And on top of that, he bought the apartment at a higher price than his semi-d or about that amount. During that time, people were saying, how can a semi d be 1 mil. No way. Today it is 3mil and above. In 1990, lagoon view was going for 270k. Who would have thot that it is worth >1mil today. I remember my friend bought waterside for 800k in 1991. Today it is worth >3mil. Inflation causes the above. Check out coke, bread, noodle price every 10 years from today and compare the price.
There will be ups and downs for sure. You need to identify when the down will be but always review as things changes. Nothing is constant. When recession happens, you have evaluate. If the governments all come together and pump money, do you expect the economy to get better. Like QE. I really did not expect the US government to act as such. When they did, I expected the economy will pick up thus, I had no choice but to change my mindset.
So, there are tell tale signs, but remember, always re-evaluate your position regularly. Don't be stubborn and say the price will always go up. I am looking at 2014 to be a critical point as the fed will review interest rate and Greece next payment is due then. I will also be looking out for signs on a regular basis to realign my position on the economy. No one can predict for sure when the economy will tank and stick to it.
Finally, think about it. The US have pumped so much money, do you think they will make the same mistake they made like the great depression period. During that period, they pumped a lot of money. They thot things were good and they stopped pumping money which resulted in the great depression which lasted 4 years.
speculator
22-04-12, 09:39
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.
Judging from URA data from the most recent Lehman Global Financial Crisis, I don't think there are many with guts.
Most people just empty talk about waiting on the sideline for the right opportunity and Fire Sale.
When it comes, guts shrink. :eek:
Judging from URA data from the most recent Lehman Global Financial Crisis, I don't think there are many with guts.
Most people just empty talk about waiting on the sideline for the right opportunity and Fire Sale.
When it comes, guts shrink. :eek:
In a group, the top 10% will be diff from the crowd. The major difference is the brain. Getting data - anyone can get if they try hard enough. But some don't even get there. The biggest challenge is getting the right data to come to a conclusion. Then executing it. Some people will just get data to point them to doomsday. While some will just get data to point them to happy days ahead. Be neither of the above. Get data to show current and future state.
Just do a survey in this blog and you will know how many bought during the lethman crisis.
Judging from URA data from the most recent Lehman Global Financial Crisis, I don't think there are many with guts.
Most people just empty talk about waiting on the sideline for the right opportunity and Fire Sale.
When it comes, guts shrink. :eek:
Very inspiring and thoughtful posts. So what is your take on:
1) Europe crisis - Will it pass as a scare from now on or become full blown in future?
2) USA economy - Will get better or just a blip up only?
3) China economy - Will it crash and bring the world down along with it or will it still grow but at a slower pace (just a scare only)?
2) What is the direction of property prices going forward with respect to resale vs new launch, CCR vs RCR vs OCR?
Here is my take on the property market as of now.
Those who bought a few years ago are already up on their property purchase. They paid a down payment anywhere from 0% to 20% and would have collected a fair bit on their rental over the past few years. If they have saved, this money will be good for rainy days.
Those who bought recently as investment would have downed 40% as down payment. This group of people have holding power.
The above group have holding power. They would have technically saved for 6 months of contingency in the event of losing their job. So, if the economy tanks for more then 2 quarters,and people start losing their job, you will see major correction only after 6 months. That's why during the Lehman period, there was only a few fire sales and this were snapped up by people with connections with property agents and this sales mainly involved quick cash exchange. I was expecting the recession to last longer then 6 months but it reversed so quickly. Thus I changed tactics and bot in 09.
So, if you guys are looking at a minor recession, like Lehman period, don't expect a big crash across many properties. Only a few fire sales.
1997 was a long recession thus prices continued to drop across many units and likewise for SARs period.
Next, I will bring you guys back in time. In 1988, a colleague of mind sold his semi d in katong for 500k expecting the prices to drop. He rented for many years but the prices crept up all the way to 1996. He bot an apartment in 1995(there abouts). Count the rental he paid. And on top of that, he bought the apartment at a higher price than his semi-d or about that amount. During that time, people were saying, how can a semi d be 1 mil. No way. Today it is 3mil and above. In 1990, lagoon view was going for 270k. Who would have thot that it is worth >1mil today. I remember my friend bought waterside for 800k in 1991. Today it is worth >3mil. Inflation causes the above. Check out coke, bread, noodle price every 10 years from today and compare the price.
There will be ups and downs for sure. You need to identify when the down will be but always review as things changes. Nothing is constant. When recession happens, you have evaluate. If the governments all come together and pump money, do you expect the economy to get better. Like QE. I really did not expect the US government to act as such. When they did, I expected the economy will pick up thus, I had no choice but to change my mindset.
So, there are tell tale signs, but remember, always re-evaluate your position regularly. Don't be stubborn and say the price will always go up. I am looking at 2014 to be a critical point as the fed will review interest rate and Greece next payment is due then. I will also be looking out for signs on a regular basis to realign my position on the economy. No one can predict for sure when the economy will tank and stick to it.
Finally, think about it. The US have pumped so much money, do you think they will make the same mistake they made like the great depression period. During that period, they pumped a lot of money. They thot things were good and they stopped pumping money which resulted in the great depression which lasted 4 years.
You know how to set up a vote for it? May be include buy 1, 2, 3 or more?
Just do a survey in this blog and you will know how many bought during the lethman crisis.
Judging from URA data from the most recent Lehman Global Financial Crisis, I don't think there are many with guts.
Most people just empty talk about waiting on the sideline for the right opportunity and Fire Sale.
When it comes, guts shrink. :eek:
To your surprise, many in this forum bought during the 09.
Will be keen to know how many in this forum bought units in the last one year?
To your surprise, many in this forum bought during the 09.
Will be keen to know how many in this forum bought units in the last one year?
I will be surprise if many did.:D
speculator
22-04-12, 11:48
me saving up money for my first home until 2014.. :o
see can hoot any cheaper home to start my family or not.. :ashamed1:
To your surprise, many in this forum bought during the 09.
More inclined to accept numbers supported by facts than Survey
Lehman Bro collapsed on September 15, 2008 the next subsequent 1 over year is all doom and gloom news on a daily basis. Nobody know how deep and wide this largest Financial Crisis is going to be.
Using new sale data as a gauge, See Attached URA Data.
I would say not many. These are not hear say but real facts and figures :scared-4:
and comparing against now how many units were sold in March 2012?
Many in this forum bought during 09? Yes I am indeed very surprise. :eek:
How many people on the sideline will genuinely have the guts to buy when prices dip big time. Again, I say not many even though many sincerely at this point in time now thought they'll and they can do it.
I will be surprise if many did.:D
I did. Bot in 05, 07, 09, 10, 11:)
I did. Bot in 05, 07, 09, 10, 11:)
You already back by huge profit to invest in 11.:cheers1:
Actually by 1st half of 09, sky has clear up. Though not many expect price to rebounce sharply, it is 60% sure price almost reach bottom. At that time, in the forum, there were some starbuys mentioned in some projects.
When market moves in late 09, i still remember them overjoy with the star purchase.
More inclined to accept numbers supported by facts than Survey
Lehman Bro collapsed on September 15, 2008 the next subsequent 1 over year is all doom and gloom news on a daily basis. Nobody know how deep and wide this largest Financial Crisis is going to be.
Using new sale data as a gauge, See Attached URA Data.
I would say not many. These are not hear say but real facts and figures :scared-4:
and comparing against now how many units were sold in March 2012?
Many in this forum bought during 09? Yes I am indeed very surprise. :eek:
How many people on the sideline will genuinely have the guts to buy when prices dip big time. Again, I say not many even though many sincerely at this point in time now thought they'll and they can do it.
I did. Bot in 05, 07, 09, 10, 11:)
Yr or districts?
blackjack21trader
22-04-12, 17:44
This run up in prices from 2005 was due to afew reason:
1. What comes down will go up. What goes up will come down. 2005 was at lowest point.
2. Economy was doing well.
3. Demand was more than supply.
Check this out. Population in 2005 was 4.265mil and 2011 was 5.183 = 0.918mil. No of resident = 1.146mil. As for the 2005, you will need to find out the figure. You should find tha the number of population outstrips the number of house available.
If you looking at your first home, remember this.
1. When the prices are high, buy hdb... So when the prices drop, your loss is lower. But if the prices go up, at least you are vested.
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.
Do your homework and you will be more confident with your investments.
My third eye told me this Chestnut is no simple chestnut. The way he is thinking, most likely of a CEO level. How I know? Cause my brain is also so brainy lah.. WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
神龙股侠。
speculator
22-04-12, 17:45
thanks bro for the great advice!! :cheers5:
i will probably go for a resale HDB first to enjoy my entitlement...lol:D
Good work. Buy HDB. It's Leasehold but treated like Freehold.
When it's old, Govt do SERS.
After SERS you can still get fantastic profit.
E.g. TPY SERS
http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Toa+Payoh+Central+5-room+resale+flat+hits+%24894%2C000/
So to all interested buyers out there. PLEASE PLEASE do everyone else a favour. Buy HDB. Stop making this already expensive PC market more expensive. :2cents: :2cents: :2cents:
HDB, you won't go wrong. Leasehold but Freehold treatment. Best of all world. :D
Hardly pay any property tax too. After all the property tax rebate.
Also get Utility rebate, town council rebate. Perfect purchase. Buy HDB ! Don't hesistate :cheers3:
Yr or districts?
My first investment was in 1994. What I mentioned was yr.
My third eye told me this Chestnut is no simple chestnut. The way he is thinking, most likely of a CEO level. How I know? Cause my brain is also so brainy lah.. WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
神龙股侠。
Haha. I stay in district 5 and I am a simple man who uses his brain. Really, I found out that the key to success is 90% analyzing. I really want to share with everyone that no one that predict 2 to 5 years from today and stick to it all the way. Things changes along the way and plans need to change as well. Even in e army, we need to do things like hasty deployment.
blackjack21trader
22-04-12, 18:28
Haha. I stay in district 5 and I am a simple man who uses his brain. Really, I found out that the key to success is 90% analyzing. I really want to share with everyone that no one that predict 2 to 5 years from today and stick to it all the way. Things changes along the way and plans need to change as well. Even in e army, we need to do things like hasty deployment.
Simple man can write computer programs meh....WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
This run up in prices from 2005 was due to afew reason:
1. What comes down will go up. What goes up will come down. 2005 was at lowest point.
2. Economy was doing well.
3. Demand was more than supply.
Check this out. Population in 2005 was 4.265mil and 2011 was 5.183 = 0.918mil. No of resident = 1.146mil. As for the 2005, you will need to find out the figure. You should find tha the number of population outstrips the number of house available.
If you looking at your first home, remember this.
1. When the prices are high, buy hdb... So when the prices drop, your loss is lower. But if the prices go up, at least you are vested.
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.
Do your homework and you will be more confident with your investments.
if prices are high, buy a EC and sell as high as PC in 5yrs time.
if meanwhile prices drip, EC prices drop is minimize.
and pump money to pick PC durians under a company's name..
this way, u vested in a EC looking to sell as PC prices.
And you still buy more PC if prices go low.
if prices are high, buy a EC and sell as high as PC in 5yrs time.
if meanwhile prices drip, EC prices drop is minimize.
and pump money to pick PC durians under a company's name..
this way, u vested in a EC looking to sell as PC prices.
And you still buy more PC if prices go low.
ThIs is a bad piece of advice... How do u buy EC as and when u like?? This is not property investing. It's just buying a home.
Very inspiring and thoughtful posts. So what is your take on:
1) Europe crisis - Will it pass as a scare from now on or become full blown in future?
2) USA economy - Will get better or just a blip up only?
3) China economy - Will it crash and bring the world down along with it or will it still grow but at a slower pace (just a scare only)?
2) What is the direction of property prices going forward with respect to resale vs new launch, CCR vs RCR vs OCR?
What is your take? The view will be very subjective but I definitely have a take. I will share a portion of it and wait for yours.
China
Let me ask a simple question on china. When was China's last recession. No country I recall has done such a feat as this. So when will it go into recession? They do not follow the norm and there is no history as reference. But one day it will come down. And when it does, it will be BIG. But china is at its infant stage and not everyone has a tv yet. So bottom line. I really cannot tell when it will fall but when it does, it will be big. And I am always on a look out for signs. Currently, it looks like it is not going to fall.
You tell me your analysis of the rest of the questions. My answers are not always right. Just an analysis to the best of my knowledge. Some other people may know more then me and may contradict my findings, but I will only buy in if there are facts to support it.
ThIs is a bad piece of advice... How do u buy EC as and when u like?? This is not property investing. It's just buying a home.
for joint singles sibling, married couple to buy EC. safest bet.
what so difficult abt buying a EC.? for those who qualify and if pple wanna buy and play around the system. go explore loopholes. for them to know and for them to find out.
for only singles, refer to chestnut posts: buy a hdb
thanks for the excellent post, chestnut..
me saving up money for my first home until 2014.. :o
see can hoot any cheaper home to start my family or not.. :ashamed1:
Roly8. Buying the first home to me has no right or wrong. It depends on your strategy.
Here is my advise from an investment standpoint.
In 2014 if the prices are still all time high.
Get the cheapest flat and the smallest that will accommodate your family without suffering. I believe the date 2014 is because you are getting married then.
Next, continue to save money and wait for a drop in property price. When it drops and ultimately it will drop, go in for your 2nd property which is PC. You can then decide to stay in your PC and rent out your hdb (if you or your family want to enjoy life) or rent out your PC which will allow you to save more because your rental will be higher.
Remember, if you stinge and die early, you will regret not having enjoyed. On the other hand, if yur enjoy like crazy without saving, your biggest fear is living to 80 years old. So strike a balance. As for me, I really stinge during the early years(I was not born with a golden spoon neither did I marry a rich woman) and thank goodness can at least enjoy life now. Whew... If not, regret like shit.
You will need to decide your destiny - 1. enjoyment now, 2. Thrifty now 3. A balance. Only you can decide.
I did. Bot in 05, 07, 09, 10, 11:)
I bought in 2001, late 09, n 11.
but din follow thru on location location location. All based on affordability n design of the units.
the one in 01 has mutiple up n down n only about 40% gain. :doh:
Simple man can write computer programs meh....WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
Huh? Computer program?
Btw, I really do like your postings.
One of the reasons why I post more frequent now is I actually want to share my views with fellow forummers who have given me some insights into the property market here and there, which I left out. One more thing, never ever believe any one without doing your own homework to verify. Remember, you answer to your own destiny.
I bought in 2001, late 09, n 11.
but din follow thru on location location location. All based on affordability n design of the units.
the one in 01 has mutiple up n down n only about 40% gain. :doh:
Huh? The one bot in 2001 would have doubled easily regardless of location. it is the 09 n 11 that location counts. In the case of location, I am not referring to prime. I Am referring to major/many launches by developers. Example. Guilin is a fantastic project w access to mrt, but prices did not trend like the market because there were no new launches with higher prices. So the references are the caveats recorded in URA at the same time, it is not under the radar of investors.
Say Vision caused the price of blue horizon to go up. Thomson g caused the price of gardens at bishan to go up. Ascentia sky caused the prices of metro to go up, etc......
for joint singles sibling, married couple to buy EC. safest bet.
what so difficult abt buying a EC.? for those who qualify and if pple wanna buy and play around the system. go explore loopholes. for them to know and for them to find out.
for only singles, refer to chestnut posts: buy a hdb
Can u buy 2 3 ECs?? Indeed there're loopholes etc. But still the mop, renting restrictions etc is not exactly meant for all investors.. How does one with a few property buy another hdb?? How do u buy a hdb at the age of 24 and single?
Roly8. Buying the first home to me has no right or wrong. It depends on your strategy.
Here is my advise from an investment standpoint.
In 2014 if the prices are still all time high.
Get the cheapest flat and the smallest that will accommodate your family without suffering. I believe the date 2014 is because you are getting married then.
Next, continue to save money and wait for a drop in property price. When it drops and ultimately it will drop, go in for your 2nd property which is PC. You can then decide to stay in your PC and rent out your hdb (if you or your family want to enjoy life) or rent out your PC which will allow you to save more because your rental will be higher.
Remember, if you stinge and die early, you will regret not having enjoyed. On the other hand, if yur enjoy like crazy without saving, your biggest fear is living to 80 years old. So strike a balance. As for me, I really stinge during the early years(I was not born with a golden spoon neither did I marry a rich woman) and thank goodness can at least enjoy life now. Whew... If not, regret like shit.
You will need to decide your destiny - 1. enjoyment now, 2. Thrifty now 3. A balance. Only you can decide.
Roly, if 2014, prices drop and recession is in. Prepare at least 6 month contingency and plunge in. When to plunge in will depend on your comfort feeling and also job security. If fear kicks in, just get a hdb. You will be rewarded either way. Have a plan but be flexible.
Can u buy 2 3 ECs?? Indeed there're loopholes etc. But still the mop, renting restrictions etc is not exactly meant for all investors.. How does one with a few property buy another hdb?? How do u buy a hdb at the age of 24 and single?
I'm saying to buy a EC and buy PC if cheaper. so my answer is buy 1 EC.
MOP, renting etc.. hdb dont come do checks on EC for illegal rentals. Etc whitewater EC my manager rented out for 5years from the 1st day til he sold it recently.
i didn't mention anything abt one with few property to buy another hdb..
at age 24 and single to buy hdb.. for you to explore.
I'm saying to buy a EC and buy PC if cheaper. so my answer is buy 1 EC.
MOP, renting etc.. hdb dont come do checks on EC for illegal rentals. Etc whitewater EC my manager rented out for 5years from the 1st day til he sold it recently.
i didn't mention anything abt one with few property to buy another hdb..
at age 24 and single to buy hdb.. for you to explore.
Ya so my point is how is being able to buy one considered an investment?? Just like ur only able to buy one lot of SIA, after that nothing else. Is that an investment?
I explored and didn't find a method
Ya so my point is how is being able to buy one considered an investment?? Just like ur only able to buy one lot of SIA, after that nothing else. Is that an investment?
I explored and didn't find a method
is owning property assets also part of investment? regardless hdb, EC or PC..?
is owning property assets also part of investment? regardless hdb, EC or PC..?
Home and property investment is different. U maybe lucky in life to buy your home at a right time. But how do you call one a property investor if all he owns is his own home??
What I'm pointing at is that ur above advise was not for investors.
is owning property assets also part of investment? regardless hdb, EC or PC..?
1st unit is your home.
2nd and 3rd unit is to generate income when you are retired.
your 4th unit is a investment :cheers1:
1st unit is your home.
2nd and 3rd unit is to generate income when you are retired.
your 4th unit is a investment :cheers1:
Agreed. :D :cheers2:
blackjack21trader
22-04-12, 21:23
Huh? Computer program?
Btw, I really do like your postings.
One of the reasons why I post more frequent now is I actually want to share my views with fellow forummers who have given me some insights into the property market here and there, which I left out. One more thing, never ever believe any one without doing your own homework to verify. Remember, you answer to your own destiny.
dun bluff la, you are too humble... my third eye told me you are in the computer industry and someone of a high decision making position hor.maybe VP or MD level.
thanks for liking my posts- not many can appreciate my wisdom hiddened within the posts. Reading my posts is like digging into rubbish to find the 4D paper hiddened within hor-
Me too simply love your post. I can discern that it is someone of a higher intelligence. In fact, what you said just rang a bell in my head and.....I shall reveal them on 9 August 2012.
keep them coming, brother chestnut :) Your contribution is invaluable.
神龙股侠。
blackjack21trader
22-04-12, 21:36
BTW, my third eye knows exactly what is on the minds of the recent OCR condos buyers. I can read their minds like a story book. And from this story book, I know what exactly are their plans and their next move.
heheheheheheheheheheheh
blackjack21trader
22-04-12, 21:38
And my third eye also told me that if you held any CCR or RCR resale properties- better dun sell them yet. I held 2 in D9 and 1 in D15. Not going to sell them anytime soon.
hehehehehehhehehe
blackjack21trader
22-04-12, 21:40
I let a little hint for you... these buyers bought at a low quantum, no doubt the psf is high. As a result ,they have the holding power although their home incomes maybe around $10K.
I let a little hint for you... these buyers bought at a low quantum, no doubt the psf is high. As a result ,they have the holding power although their home incomes maybe around $10K.
My household income is 7k+ with 2k+ rental = 10kSGD.
Why am I not buying then? Am I too conservative, aka Kiasi?
blackjack21trader
22-04-12, 21:42
These young people are very smart.... they are more educated and intelligent than any of us CEOs here hor. How I know? well, I happened to overhead one young couple conversation in the showroom...heheheheheheh
blackjack21trader
22-04-12, 21:44
My household income is 7k+ with 2k+ rental = 10kSGD.
Why am I not buying then? Am I too conservative, aka Kiasi?
Nope. You are not kiasi. Reserve your firepower for CCR and RCR panic spiders lor. These uncles and aunties are no match lah... they will be the panic spiders in the next few months.
speculator
22-04-12, 21:46
My household income is 7k+ with 2k+ rental = 10kSGD.
Why am I not buying then? Am I too conservative, aka Kiasi?
household income too low considering prices in todays market
household income too low considering prices in todays market
I reckon that so. Having said that, I am looking forward to the Aug 2012 relevation.
These young people are very smart.... they are more educated and intelligent than any of us CEOs here hor. How I know?well, I happened to overhead one young couple conversation in the showroom...heheheheheheh
:D every recession same story :D
many kaputz no job no money to service 2 loans end up pitch tent
These young people are very smart.... they are more educated and intelligent than any of us CEOs here hor. How I know? well, I happened to overhead one young couple conversation in the showroom...heheheheheheh
What did they (couple) says then?
I have no idea. I only can tell you what I hear:
1) USA - Economy is recovering, although slower than people would like it.
2) Europe - The credit crisis is not over, but probably will pass as people get used to it and time heals.
3) China is the biggest unknown, so very difficult to say.
What is your take and analysis on above? Thanks.
What is your take? The view will be very subjective but I definitely have a take. I will share a portion of it and wait for yours.
China
Let me ask a simple question on china. When was China's last recession. No country I recall has done such a feat as this. So when will it go into recession? They do not follow the norm and there is no history as reference. But one day it will come down. And when it does, it will be BIG. But china is at its infant stage and not everyone has a tv yet. So bottom line. I really cannot tell when it will fall but when it does, it will be big. And I am always on a look out for signs. Currently, it looks like it is not going to fall.
You tell me your analysis of the rest of the questions. My answers are not always right. Just an analysis to the best of my knowledge. Some other people may know more then me and may contradict my findings, but I will only buy in if there are facts to support it.
I have no idea. I only can tell you what I hear:
1) USA - Economy is recovering, although slower than people would like it.
2) Europe - The credit crisis is not over, but probably will pass as people get used to it and time heals.
3) China is the biggest unknown, so very difficult to say.
What is your take and analysis on above? Thanks.
Based on what I can tell. You can double check and confirm. I will share with you on time 1. Shared with you on item 3 already.
Remember, this is based on past history to guide me and then to look out for signs.
1. Typically, when us is down, either Europe or asia is up. When Asia is down, either us or Europe is up. Each continent takes 1 turn to support the economy. The only time which i can recall a simultaneous down is the great depression and 1985 or there abouts. Tis time round, us has been down since 2007. This recession in the us is one of the worst. But the economy is now better and things looks better. Having been down, the economy can only be flat or better. So my current stand is us is recovering.
As for Europe. Time for you to do your homework. It will be good for you. During the subprime period and Lehman, I spend hrs every night reading up on the great depression and understanding ht effects, etc.... Never rely on someone's read of the situation. You need to understand the situation yourself and then engage in the discussion/debate, if not there will be no progression.
D your homework, express your views, be prepared for nasty remarks and start a constructive argument.
So my current stand is us is recovering.
I m no expert in economics but do allow me to voice my views on this.
My observations are such;
USA
I would say US is nowhere near to recovery or recovering - this is a election year 2012 and same as all other election years they cook up the numbers in order to stay in power. Many jobs were gone for good and will not come back thanks to globalisation. Measures taken were more like to postpone the recession to a later date instead of eradicating the actual issues. And having zero reserves - the next meltdown will be a lot worse. And when they print more money like what they did in 2009, the same 2010 sg property price surge will repeat itself in sg again.
Europe
just SPAIN alone and you can see it's a no bottom hole(20% jobless), the greeks if they are lucky would take them at least a decade enroute to recovery(debt). The Europe problem is going to be a long one.....as long as everyone is still in euros - god knows how long:beats-me-man:
China
their growth has already slowed down. Though there are rumors of tons of provincial government HIDDEN debts but even if there is a recession, they have heaps of reserves to pump into their economy. Short term recession at most but their commodities suppliers will be in deeper sh*t especially the aussies.
China will be the one who leads the recovery on the next round of recession, forget about USA - iphones and windows alone wont be able to save USA.
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 05:58
Until the 1970s, amount of currency in our World was limited by the quantity of gold. This is because in pre-70s, the US$ was pegged to the gold value. During that era, there were few advanced economies like Japan or Hong Kong in Asia. As a matter of factly, there were more under developed economies than developed economies. This system place a limit on the advancement of technology and the growth in GDP in general. Because there is only such limited amount of US$ allowed in the global system. If you are discerning enough, you would realise the World did not make much advancement in computer technology until after the 70s. And herein lies the answer to this article I am going to enlighten you.
After the termination of US$ against gold, it means that gold is no longer a form of currency limiter. This gave the Central Banks much power to print paper currency. This is good as it removed the cap or limit on the amount of growth of GDP and also the research on the advancement of technologies. From the 70s till 2008, we saw remarkable progress in GDPs of emerging economies all around the globe. Standard of livings was increasing at a rapid rate in economies like China and India. If ever the US$ was still pegged to gold, this would not have happened. And how so ? Simply because there will not be enough US$ to circulate among these emerging economies. This is the arrival of the New Era: Post Bretton Woods.
The change in China consisted of two types. First, the focus of capital controls changed from “encouraging inflows and discouraging outflows” to “neutral one” first in order to achieve a better balance in the external position.
The increased capital transaction cost from late 2008 through 2009 clearly reflected exchange risks associated with the global financial crisis in the aftermath of the Lehman shock. During the period from 2003 through 2010 as a whole, deviations from the parity for the on-shore market were by and large greater than those for the cross-border market.
The West cannot afford any defaults on their debts and they will never allow it. They may just drag and drag and drag, but they will never press the magic button. Well, they can drag on for a 100 years, yet they will never press the button because of what happened in China (Yuan Dynasty- about 700 years ago ) ,Poland , Hungary, Argentina and the more recent more subduced inflation in Brazil.
First of all,the Americans are decendants from Paris and France is the Most technologically advanced nation on planet Earth.( Bet you did not know that, right? You always thought is USA , right? Now you know you are WRONG! ). If ever anyone in Europe defaulted on their debts, that will bring down the Euro and the whole of EU. ..That is like 70% of the Western Civilisation ! The French will never allow that.. Because in the West, they are the masterminds while the Germans are merely the innovators.
That is why I think the recovery will start in EU once the banks there start to realise their global investment and take back their funds from the global markets. They have been investing aggressively in Asia while the Americans were sleeping after 2008. For your record, Europeans are the largest investors in Singapore... Surprise !
The real leader to recovery in USA will be from Europe...and you heard it here from me first. Meanwhile, no EU recovery, no USA recovery...
So, what is going to happen next? Well, I shall reveal on 9 August 2012.
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 06:20
Prelude to the BJ21t composition on 9 August 2012:
The World has not seen a depression after Post Bretton Woods. The World is no longer the same place you, me, our fathers, grandfathers used to know.
There is a major transformation in mindset and structural change coming within the next 5 years. Yes, you heard it right. It will be only 5 years before the next major paradigm shift.
This shift will dislodge all who had timed the market incorrectly and leave the borderline middle class way way behind the affluent class. The signs are all there..but no policy makers except a few on our Planet Earth have discerned the coming era and they are now preparing their citizens for it and not telling you or me.
If it ever occurred to your brilliant mind at all, FIAT CURRENCY is here to stay for good.The only difference is that it will be in the form of electrons and photons within the next 5 years.
A shadow economy had already been test running for the last 20 years, and the education system in the West had already prepared their new generation for the emergence of this shadow economy. Conspirarcy theory, you say and laugh at me. Let your ugly brother here tell it in your face: this shadow economy is called ebay, Amazon, Paypal, Visa, Master,Clouds,wifi, 3G, 4G and in many many other names etc..
You still dun get it, do you? Well, let's wait for 9 August 2012.
神龙股侠。
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 14:20
Prelude 2: The Paradigm Shift
The following are the seeds of this coming great shift:
1) A whole new generation of higher intellectual class is emerging. For example, I know of this young developer child, who is a heaven sent for the aging developer father. This child when in polytechnic, was already bidding lands against competing uncles and aunties developers in Singapore. The child is so accurate in timing market that a whole group of uncles and aunties secretly followed the bidding.
2) A frightening middle class population expansion in China is coming. This class, we in the know called it the farmers crossland. This class are the kids of the farmers who became rich after selling the farm land back to the Chinese government. They tell you there are many empty apartments in China- think again, who is building these apartments and why are they building it and leaving them empty.
A result of our Internet Age ? I let you be the judge after reading my composition in August. You think I am bullshiting ? Go to some of the land auction and see for yourself.
In 2004, I told of OCR hitting beyond S$1200psf. I was sniggered at.
In 2005, I told of the coming inflation and again I was laughed at.
In 2007, I told of the SGD will be becoming stronger and few believed me.
In 2008, I told of to be careful about facebook and the young moroons and I got kicked in the butt.
In 2009-2010 I disappeared into the Indian forest to meditate.
In 2011, I told of the coming Singapore River and again I was taken as a joker.
In 2012, I told you of the Water Dragon and the Star Alignment and was called a fool.
In 2013, I will be telling you of the coming Great Paradigm Shift and let's see what you will call me.
神龙股侠。
NIL SINE LABORE!
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 14:49
"As always, before the next shift, the wolves shall be out for the sheeps."- wise words by BJ21T
check this site
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
US in my opinion is already stabilized. In the event of a drop in economy, QE will begin.
To me, it is about watching out for china and Europe.
One more thing, there is a correlation between sti and property prices. Stocks are 6 month ahead. So to identify burst of bubble, look at sti. Remember, economy tank, stocks tank, retrenchment, sell stock, sell car, sell house.
I really don't see property price to shoot up a lot and that is my view. Why? CM will take place should price spike.
IMHO....
A lot of write-up on this thread... unfortunately no real insights.... just a lot of hot air.
This statement is ridiculous " So to identify burst of bubble, look at sti. Remember, economy tank, stocks tank, retrenchment, sell stock, sell car, sell house."
If the economy/stocks tank and there is widespread retrenchment.... it is already too damn late to sell your house.
What are you talking about? :doh: This is no way to ID a bubble... bcoz when all that you have written has happened.... the bubble has already burst. The whole idea of trying to ID a bubble is pre-empt the burst.
check this site
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
US in my opinion is already stabilized. In the event of a drop in economy, QE will begin.
To me, it is about watching out for china and Europe.
One more thing, there is a correlation between sti and property prices. Stocks are 6 month ahead. So to identify burst of bubble, look at sti. Remember, economy tank, stocks tank, retrenchment, sell stock, sell car, sell house.
I really don't see property price to shoot up a lot and that is my view. Why? CM will take place should price spike.
IMHO....
A lot of write-up on this thread... unfortunately no real insights.... just a lot of hot air.
This statement is ridiculous " So to identify burst of bubble, look at sti. Remember, economy tank, stocks tank, retrenchment, sell stock, sell car, sell house."
If the economy/stocks tank and there is widespread retrenchment.... it is already too damn late to sell your house.
What are you talking about? :doh: This is no way to ID a bubble... bcoz when all that you have written has happened.... the bubble has already burst. The whole idea of trying to ID a bubble is pre-empt the burst.
Haha. Go and ask warren how he identify? Actually basic already told you when? What have you contributed? Tell you honestly, you will be the sat person I tell before it happens.. Haha
Don't need to tell me anything.... you are passing off rubbish as research and insight anyway.
What have I contributed?... nothing ... so?
Haha. Go and ask warren how he identify? Actually basic already told you when? What have you contributed? Tell you honestly, you will be the sat person I tell before it happens.. Haha
Haha. Go and ask warren how he identify? Actually basic already told you when? What have you contributed? Tell you honestly, you will be the sat person I tell before it happens.. Haha
Ok, so you quite/ i mean very blur. Sti tank means burst, right... Blur sotong.... Before sti burst, all aunties and uncles come out to play... Get it, you blur sotong... Or do I need to write in bold... The problem with people like you is you like to be spoon fed. I give up:doh: :doh:
:banghead: :banghead:
More rubbish....
Ok, so you quite/ i mean very blur. Sti tank means burst, right... Blur sotong.... Before sti burst, all aunties and uncles come out to play... Get it, you blur sotong... Or do I need to write in bold... The problem with people like you is you like to be spoon fed. I give up:doh: :doh:
:banghead: :banghead:
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 21:34
psssst! ....tell u guys something...: last weekend hor, the crowds are back in the showrooms...I mean, not those newly launch projects hor...but those already launched sometime liao. I know u are busy quarelling to take notice, so thought I drop by to tell you..BUT i must say, not sure if this is a one off thing or it will last la...so can only confirm much later..shhhhhhhhh...hehehhehehehehehe
wah??? no need to get so worked up leh....everyone has their own opinion, maybe right maybe wrong only time can tell.
btw, buffet didnt see 2008 coming....he lost something like 15b.:doh:
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 21:39
wah??? no need to get so worked up leh....everyone has their own opinion, maybe right maybe wrong only time can tell.
btw, buffet didnt see 2008 coming....he lost something like 15b.:doh:
are u serious? 15b is 15,000,000,000..let's see....how many zeros...hahahahahhaha
psssst! ....tell u guys something...: last weekend hor, the crowds are back in the showrooms...I mean, not those newly launch projects hor...but those already launched sometime liao. I know u are busy quarelling to take notice, so thought I drop by to tell you..BUT i must say, not sure if this is a one off thing or it will last la...so can only confirm much later..shhhhhhhhh...hehehhehehehehehe
I was at a few showrooms there. But, I just couldnt afford it despite call(s) from you that it is going down...
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 21:42
psssttt... tell u guys something hor...I saw many mediacop artistes in I12 Katong Shopping Mall recently...you guys free can try your luck there too...hehehhehe
psssst! ....tell u guys something...: last weekend hor, the crowds are back in the showrooms...I mean, not those newly launch projects hor...but those already launched sometime liao. I know u are busy quarelling to take notice, so thought I drop by to tell you..BUT i must say, not sure if this is a one off thing or it will last la...so can only confirm much later..shhhhhhhhh...hehehhehehehehehe
Someone mentioned resale market is picking up again.
psssttt... tell u guys something hor...I saw many mediacop artistes in I12 Katong Shopping Mall recently...you guys free can try your luck there too...hehehhehe
Shopping or doing new advertisment for Katong condo?
are u serious? 15b is 15,000,000,000..let's see....how many zeros...hahahahahhaha
http://www.etfguide.com/research/96/8/Down-$16-Billion---Has-Warren-Buffett-Lost-His-Touch?/
http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2008/11/02/youre-not-alone-warren-buffett-lost-billions-too/
googled :D
are u serious? 15b is 15,000,000,000..let's see....how many zeros...hahahahahhaha
Wow..... bro BJ21, you achieved enlightenment liao. :scared-4:
Why still talking about $$$$
钱乃身外之物。 :D
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 21:51
I was at a few showrooms there. But, I just couldnt afford it despite call(s) from you that it is going down...
aiya...look at resale la many already down 10% liao...help you do this math hor:
new sales price +13% stamp meaning next time the foreigner buyers will sell at least +13% above market.that is, this group are locked 13% above the market anytime they want to sell when market turns around hor. unless they wanna cut loss and sell during recession then nobody can stop them, tiobo ?
resales can easily hitch this +13% ride next time when the economy turns around la.
New sales 0% + 13%= +13%
Resales -10%+13% = +23%
Disclaimers: The calculations are purely my own imagination - please do your own homework and dun blame me for anything. Also next round more new completed units will be competing with older units hor..so choose wisely la !
wah??? no need to get so worked up leh....everyone has their own opinion, maybe right maybe wrong only time can tell.
btw, buffet didnt see 2008 coming....he lost something like 15b.:doh:
Precisely, but you must understand that he is vested. And when it dropped, he pumped in some more. Before 07,I was already quite vested. After 07, I am even more vested. So far out of my entire collection, I only sold 1 unit - Botannia.
I wish you guys all the best as I will be too busy posting from tonite onwards. Maybe on and off..... All the best... Moving into us stocks liao....
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 21:52
Shopping or doing new advertisment for Katong condo?
I always lim kopi there la....heheheheheh
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 21:53
Wow..... bro BJ21, you achieved enlightenment liao. :scared-4:
Why still talking about $$$$
钱乃身外之物。 :D
Well said ! brother PN. I totally absolutely agree with you hor. Just that I still got loans to repay leh...hehehehehehehe
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 21:56
Someone mentioned resale market is picking up again.
really ? thanks for the info... must go check this out :)
Someone mentioned resale market is picking up again.
little chance..
relatives or friends choosing new over old/ resale..
most shld know the answers la..:D
unless its huge discount
I always lim kopi there la....heheheheheh
Can we have tea together some day? Will like to learn more from you in person.
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 22:02
http://www.etfguide.com/research/96/8/Down-$16-Billion---Has-Warren-Buffett-Lost-His-Touch?/
http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2008/11/02/youre-not-alone-warren-buffett-lost-billions-too/
googled :D
brother House, if you happen to meet this Buffett guy, tell him to donate some zeros to this Blackjack21 guy. Thanks.
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 22:05
Can we have tea together some day? Will like to learn more from you in person.
brother yowetan, so happy you invited me .
One fine day I might just meet up with brothers here. But now is not the time la...because I am really darn ugly and badly needed a plastic job. If I meet any of you here, I will loose my standing in your heart hor especially the hearts of the sisters here.
Then, after which what I said will not be convincing anymore liao hor...
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
You think I am handsome? I BLUFF YOU ONE LA...hehehheheheh
brother yowetan, so happy you invited me .
One fine day I might just meet up with brothers here. But now is not the time la...because I am really darn ugly and badly needed a plastic job. If I meet any of you here, I will loose my standing in your heart hor especially the hearts of the sisters here.
Then, after which what I said will not be convincing anymore liao hor...
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
You think I am handsome? I BLUFF YOU ONE LA...hehehheheheh
I am keen in your insight not Outsight (looks).
I am keen in your insight not Outsight (looks).
many many humorous pple in this forum I like :D
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 22:15
I am keen in your insight not Outsight (looks).
My insights are stolen in bits and pieces from the brothers and sisters here. Opppppss... and my third eye is bluff one also. I merely studied psychology and use the way someone writes to guess his occupation and traits. Now you know who is the real smart one.. IT IS YOU.
heheheheheheh
blackjack21trader
23-04-12, 22:18
Take for example, why I started this thread is not because I know how to ID the property bubble, but rather I gathered the inputs from the forum and then come to my conclusions with some economic facts from news like Bloomberg or Channelnewsasia, etc.. of course I have my grassroots in the actual battle field to confirm my so called "insights".
buttercarp
23-04-12, 22:25
Yowetan... i like your sense of humour too!
To echo BJ21's Great Paradigm Shift,
I can see shops closing down:
Bookstores are already closing down;
Retail Clothing shops will be the next
(shoe shops will be the exception - need sisters here to confirm);
Office shops will move more and more to home
- no more traffic jam
- just hope people don't move too far and cross the causeway
What will be left?
Hair salons
Hospitals
... those require absolute human touch.
Thanks,
Richard
Food......
To echo BJ21's Great Paradigm Shift,
I can see shops closing down:
Bookstores are already closing down;
Retail Clothing shops will be the next
(shoe shops will be the exception - need sisters here to confirm);
Office shops will move more and more to home
- no more traffic jam
- just hope people don't move too far and cross the causeway
What will be left?
Hair salons
Hospitals
... those require absolute human touch.
Thanks,
Richard
To echo BJ21's Great Paradigm Shift,
I can see shops closing down:
Bookstores are already closing down;
ehh....I thought bookstores closed down coz of ebooks? CD shops kaput also coz of iTunes.
many many humorous pple in this forum I like :D
Hmmm "House".....nice nick... good use of Gregory House as avatar... and appropriate to the topic of discussion... clever!
I will not order clothing, handbag, shoes etc online. I need to try it and feel the material.
Hmmm "House".....nice nick... good use of Gregory House as avatar... and appropriate to the topic of discussion... clever!
thanks!:D
but me actually very the ah gong....came here to understand more stuffs cos can see many many high intelligent beings posting here :D
we do not need to predict when, how and why.
let nature takes its course. we examine and take it from there.
psssst! ....tell u guys something...: last weekend hor, the crowds are back in the showrooms...I mean, not those newly launch projects hor...but those already launched sometime liao. I know u are busy quarelling to take notice, so thought I drop by to tell you..BUT i must say, not sure if this is a one off thing or it will last la...so can only confirm much later..shhhhhhhhh...hehehhehehehehehe
I agree with you on this one. Some people on the sidelines are starting to take action given the resilience of the market. Very much so for the CCR. My visits to showflats tells me that many buyers are Singaporeans.
On another note, there are alot of qualitative factors at play making Singapore a place to be in the region. I had a preview of the Gardens by the Bay and you will understand why so many foreigners want to take a stake in Singapore. I am from the tourism industry and this is something I have not seen overseas. Go and see when it is open on 29 June and you will know what I mean. It is really world class and I can imagine the property prices for developments around the garden in due time!
blackjack21trader
24-04-12, 15:30
I agree with you on this one. Some people on the sidelines are starting to take action given the resilience of the market. Very much so for the CCR. My visits to showflats tells me that many buyers are Singaporeans.
On another note, there are alot of qualitative factors at play making Singapore a place to be in the region. I had a preview of the Gardens by the Bay and you will understand why so many foreigners want to take a stake in Singapore. I am from the tourism industry and this is something I have not seen overseas. Go and see when it is open on 29 June and you will know what I mean. It is really world class and I can imagine the property prices for developments around the garden in due time!
Yes indeed brother. But I wish these new buyers will keep in mind the 3Ls when buying property. Property purchases are long life items and affects one's financial position directly. Do hope they look at returns and not potential capital gains.
My household income is 7k+ with 2k+ rental = 10kSGD.
Why am I not buying then? Am I too conservative, aka Kiasi?
Good to be on the conservative side. My bro and his wife combined income $25K only go for max $1.5M FH landed property which he bought in 2010. On hindsight it's a wise choice as price has gone up 40 to 50% in today's value.
Good to be on the conservative side. My bro and his wife combined income $25K only go for max $1.5M FH landed property which he bought in 2010. On hindsight it's a wise choice as price has gone up 40 to 50% in today's value.
It depends i guess.... your bro accept lower profits for less risk.... if he had bought two now make 100%
I agree with you on this one. Some people on the sidelines are starting to take action given the resilience of the market. Very much so for the CCR. My visits to showflats tells me that many buyers are Singaporeans.
On another note, there are alot of qualitative factors at play making Singapore a place to be in the region. I had a preview of the Gardens by the Bay and you will understand why so many foreigners want to take a stake in Singapore. I am from the tourism industry and this is something I have not seen overseas. Go and see when it is open on 29 June and you will know what I mean. It is really world class and I can imagine the property prices for developments around the garden in due time!
MBT initiated this project. Cost 2bio leh
MBT initiated this project. Cost 2bio leh
To create the artificial environment for the exotic plants is very costly. Another costly stupid project is the retrofitting the Bishan Park as part of ABC Waters programme - it is already a nice park to begin with but I'm not sure why the need to make it look like a swamp. I think there are other ways to spend the money more effectively.
I think this is subjective... Singapore needs an edge.
At this day and age the Chinese Garden at Jurong or Toa Payoh Gardens may not cut it, very "obiang". In the '70s and '80s people were so fond of taking wedding pictures there and when you had a foreign visitor, Chinese Gardens was one of the places that you might bring them to visit. But now you'll be lucky if delinquents are willing to hang out there
You are right that Bishan Park was already nice... but now its fabulous. The only silly thing IMHO was the name change... now it is called Ang Mo Kio-Bishan Park.
To create the artificial environment for the exotic plants is very costly. Another costly stupid project is the retrofitting the Bishan Park as part of ABC Waters programme - it is already a nice park to begin with but I'm not sure why the need to make it look like a swamp. I think there are other ways to spend the money more effectively.
blackjack21trader
25-04-12, 18:59
Young Punks, take note who your target market segment is when buying properties hor:
Studio : Retired Elderly, Elderly Singles, Young Singles, Young couple with no kids. Likely professions: Executives and Students. Rental Budget Max: S$3000. Likely percentage in the market: 35% ( Takes the MRT )
2-Bedders: 2 young professionals can share one unit, Young Family with not more than 2 kids, Middle and Senior Managers. Likely professions: Management.Rental Budget :S$5000- S$7000. Likely percentage in the market:35% (Drives )
3-Bedders: 3 professionals can share one unit, Executives with more than 2 kids, Senior Managers and Directors. Likely professions: Management. Rental Budget: S$7000- S$9,000.Likely percentage in the market: 25% ( Drives )
Bungalows: CEO or chairperson who needs to entertain. Likely profession: TalkCorkSingSong. Rental Budget: Above S$15,000. Likely percentage in the market: 3%-5%. ( usually this class only go for bungalows )
Disclaimers: Above from my experience inside my brain, not from reports outside my brain. Thank You.
神龙股侠。
Devilplate disappeared = big bubble. :scared-3:
blackjack21trader
25-04-12, 19:22
Devilplate disappeared = big bubble. :scared-3:
DEVILPLATE COME OUT HERE !
Young Punks, take note who your target market segment is when buying properties hor:
Studio : Retired Elderly, Elderly Singles, Young Singles, Young couple with no kids. Likely professions: Executives and Students. Rental Budget Max: S$3000. Likely percentage in the market: 35% ( Takes the MRT )
2-Bedders: 2 young professionals can share one unit, Young Family with not more than 2 kids, Middle and Senior Managers. Likely professions: Management.Rental Budget :S$5000- S$7000. Likely percentage in the market:35% (Drives )
3-Bedders: 3 professionals can share one unit, Executives with more than 2 kids, Senior Managers and Directors. Likely professions: Management. Rental Budget: S$7000- S$9,000.Likely percentage in the market: 25% ( Drives )
Bungalows: CEO or chairperson who needs to entertain. Likely profession: TalkCorkSingSong. Rental Budget: Above S$15,000. Likely percentage in the market: 3%-5%. ( usually this class only go for bungalows )
Disclaimers: Above from my experience inside my brain, not from reports outside my brain. Thank You.
神龙股侠。
Which districts are likely to fall within the respective categories?
blackjack21trader
25-04-12, 19:56
Which districts are likely to fall within the respective categories?
One day, I was drinking coffee at I12. A very beautiful angmo lady emerged from nowhere and approached me.
she asked me , " How to go to Singapore Sports Council at Kallang".
I looked at her big....big.......................big eyes and replied , " take a bus, lady ."
she insisted, " no, I want to walk. in Germany, I walk like 10km everyday."
"be my guest", i told her and gave her the direction.
Good Luck.
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
One day, I was drinking coffee at I12. A very beautiful angmo lady emerged from nowhere and approached me.
she asked me , " How to go to Singapore Sports Council at Kallang".
I looked at her big....big.......................big eyes and replied , " take a bus, lady ."
she insisted, " no, I want to walk. in Germany, I walk like 10km everyday."
"be my guest", i told her and gave her the direction.
Good Luck.
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
Hahaha good one:cheers4:
One day, I was drinking coffee at I12. A very beautiful angmo lady emerged from nowhere and approached me.
she asked me , " How to go to Singapore Sports Council at Kallang".
I looked at her big....big.......................big eyes and replied , " take a bus, lady ."
she insisted, " no, I want to walk. in Germany, I walk like 10km everyday."
"be my guest", i told her and gave her the direction.
Good Luck.
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
It's true. I was e Ang Mo lady.
blackjack21trader
26-04-12, 11:31
It's true. I was e Ang Mo lady.
I thought so... no wonder i find the way she speaks sound freaking alike to someone here.........:scared-5:
I think this is subjective... Singapore needs an edge.
At this day and age the Chinese Garden at Jurong or Toa Payoh Gardens may not cut it, very "obiang". In the '70s and '80s people were so fond of taking wedding pictures there and when you had a foreign visitor, Chinese Gardens was one of the places that you might bring them to visit. But now you'll be lucky if delinquents are willing to hang out there
You are right that Bishan Park was already nice... but now its fabulous. The only silly thing IMHO was the name change... now it is called Ang Mo Kio-Bishan Park.
hahaha... those were the days in the 70s.. remember Toa Payoh garden?
I have not been to the new Bishan park yet, but from where I stand at the golf range, it does not looks impressive. I went to Ponggol and Seng Kang and I like it.
Devilplate disappeared = big bubble. :scared-3:
yah lor. where is he? I miss his posts
Yes totally remember Toa Payoh Gardens... used to enjoy meals at the restaurant there until I read in the Straits Times that Adrian Lim (convicted child murderer) had dinner there with his wife and mistress after torturing and murdering one of the kids. After that... just didn't feel like going there anymore.
Anyway, in highly urbanised Singapore we are going in the way of Hong Kong. I think it is a commendable effort to retain and/or enhance whatever greenery that we have. We distinctly trump Hong Kong in this area. I think it is a step in the right direction.
I like the green spaces in Punggol and Seng Kang too. Bishan park after the revamp is more contoured but at the same time looks less cultivated (wild)... sounds like a contradiction... but good fun for the family and exercise enthusiasts. Bishan and AMK residents are lucky.
hahaha... those were the days in the 70s.. remember Toa Payoh garden?
I have not been to the new Bishan park yet, but from where I stand at the golf range, it does not looks impressive. I went to Ponggol and Seng Kang and I like it.
yah lor. where is he? I miss his posts
I think he is posting with a new nick...
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