View Full Version : Housing Prices Increase, WHY?
FilthyRich
30-04-12, 10:28
Simple demand and supply tells us that prices increase due to increasing demand.
However the irony with this is that Singapore has the highest home ownership in the world with up to 90%. If every one owns a house, why would there be such drastic increase in housing prices over the years?
42% for Private houses for the past 5 years
84% for HDB in the past 5 years
The only reason i can think of is due to
1. Increasing number of foreign talent?
Not really as they are not entitled to public housing.
2.Greed?
Not really as one is only entitled to 1 HDB per couple.
These factors generally contribute to the rise in prices for Private housing, but on the contrary, it is the public housing which are facing the most drastic changes in price.
ikan bilis
30-04-12, 10:54
heyz... bcoz all kena squeezed jialat jialat by govt lah...
affordable is not "relatively easy/senang to own/buy" hor...
to the govt's dictionary, affordable is "the maximum amount of force that could be used to squeeze every single drop of juice out from you"...
:scared-3: :scared-3:
I likes...:cheers6: :rolleyes:
heyz... bcoz all kena squeezed jialat jialat by govt lah...
affordable is not "relatively easy/senang to own/buy" hor...
to the govt's dictionary, affordable is "the maximum amount of force that could be used to squeeze every single drop of juice out from you"...
:scared-3: :scared-3:
the govt's dictionary, affordable is "the maximum amount of force that could be used to squeeze every single drop of juice out from you"...
:scared-3: :scared-3:
...so that once u bought, u will be a slave to your loans and no choice have to work till 80++ till you die. Retirement is not an option. The is no escape.
:doh:
FDI and the MNCs demand it...else there will be 'leakage' of those who might say "I have fully paid up PC, cash, etc etc - so why must I work so hard?".
So to keep everyone working harder, faster and cheaper ...you make them all in debt thro' higher housing debt. But the ones left behind are really behind ...relying on hand-outs. Polarised...now say must start to narrow the gap...
...so that once u bought, u will be a slave to your loans and no choice have to work till 80++ till you die. Retirement is not an option. The is no escape.
:doh:
Don't blame gahmen lah.... basic housing is not unachievable.
Nobody forced anybody to buy another property at $1600psf 99LH in the midst of a HDB estate and be indebted for life... especially when they cannot afford it.
heyz... bcoz all kena squeezed jialat jialat by govt lah...
affordable is not "relatively easy/senang to own/buy" hor...
to the govt's dictionary, affordable is "the maximum amount of force that could be used to squeeze every single drop of juice out from you"...
:scared-3: :scared-3:
Don't blame gahmen lah.... basic housing is not unachievable.
Nobody forced anybody to buy another property at $1600psf 99LH in the midst of a HDB estate and be indebted for life... especially when they cannot afford it.
Yeah I find that there is too much bickering on garmen this garmen tat. Its the PC dream each people have getting out of reach make people not happy. but at least there are alternative housing. Not like end up sleeping in streets leh.
PC to ex don't buy lor. live within ones means.
Simple demand and supply tells us that prices increase due to increasing demand.
However the irony with this is that Singapore has the highest home ownership in the world with up to 90%. If every one owns a house, why would there be such drastic increase in housing prices over the years?
42% for Private houses for the past 5 years
84% for HDB in the past 5 years
The only reason i can think of is due to
1. Increasing number of foreign talent?
Not really as they are not entitled to public housing.
2.Greed?
Not really as one is only entitled to 1 HDB per couple.
These factors generally contribute to the rise in prices for Private housing, but on the contrary, it is the public housing which are facing the most drastic changes in price.
I saw its GREED. Got developer sell got people buy. Willing buyer willing seller. Don't complain. if price not right. don't buy. why kill ones self over a PC? No buyers Developer will adjust it.
There is more to life then a PC.
Gahmen is good ..maybe too good.
But remember, it's all linked...schooling, tuition, 30+yr debt, low fertility rates etc.
So what if we can 'afford' - can our children gurantee can on their own power?
Yeah I find that there is too much bickering on garmen this garmen tat. Its the PC dream each people have getting out of reach make people not happy. but at least there are alternative housing. Not like end up sleeping in streets leh.
PC to ex don't buy lor. live within ones means.
heyz... bcoz all kena squeezed jialat jialat by govt lah...
affordable is not "relatively easy/senang to own/buy" hor...
to the govt's dictionary, affordable is "the maximum amount of force that could be used to squeeze every single drop of juice out from you"...
:scared-3: :scared-3:There is an apparent disparity even between HDB 2 room vs EA. All the examples used by MIW to counter the argument that HDB is not affordable were 2 room flats. So a family of say 6 (including old parents) will also make do with 2 room flats coz its affordable but never practical? :confused: Try saying the 5 room BTO at $380k as affordable? Wait MIW say if you only earn $1500/mth, then don't have such a big family :scared-1:! Then don't say Singaporeans don't want to have kids... or just throw our aging parents alone on the streets coz no money for aged home stay too...
Just like that somebody from MIW said, 'do u want to eat in coffeeshop or at restaurant?' :cheers6:
I saw its GREED. Got developer sell got people buy. Willing buyer willing seller. Don't complain. if price not right. don't buy. why kill ones self over a PC? No buyers Developer will adjust it.
There is more to life then a PC.Agreed! :cheers6:
I saw its GREED. Got developer sell got people buy. Willing buyer willing seller. Don't complain. if price not right. don't buy. why kill ones self over a PC? No buyers Developer will adjust it.
There is more to life then a PC.
Minority, as you can see we are the minority that can see this.
Over the years, in the name of motivating the workforce and economic progress, this country has stressed soooo much on material superiority! The rich is glorified, the poor condemned to receiving $300/$400 handouts and even a $3 increase has to be debated in parliament to further whack these people.
Everyone here wants to progress materially, they want to own more, get more money, buy this buy that, so that they can feel that they are superior than others. But they dont understand that human superiority is NOT a PC, not a car, not money in the bank account. Its the heart that matters.
Anyway, not many will understand what an Office Boy post also, so I keep it short.
DKSG
DKSG
If you are the Office Boy, then I am the Office Tea Lady. :cheers1:
How did the country (aka Gahmen) specifically stress on material superiority? How are the rich "glorified"? So are you saying we should give more handouts or less?
How is this any different in any country?
Minority, as you can see we are the minority that can see this.
Over the years, in the name of motivating the workforce and economic progress, this country has stressed soooo much on material superiority! The rich is glorified, the poor condemned to receiving $300/$400 handouts and even a $3 increase has to be debated in parliament to further whack these people.
Everyone here wants to progress materially, they want to own more, get more money, buy this buy that, so that they can feel that they are superior than others. But they dont understand that human superiority is NOT a PC, not a car, not money in the bank account. Its the heart that matters.
Anyway, not many will understand what an Office Boy post also, so I keep it short.
DKSG
DKSG
If you are the Office Boy, then I am the Office Tea Lady. :cheers1:
I'm the janitor :(
Allthepies
30-04-12, 12:13
...so that once u bought, u will be a slave to your loans and no choice have to work till 80++ till you die. Retirement is not an option. The is no escape.
:doh:
Through making some alternatives arrangement and not following the "normal" path like most couples, I can fully paid up my hdb if I want to buy now after 2 years of marriage. :D It all boils down to choice and willingness to embrace tradeoffs. No such things as working till 80+ la :tsk-tsk:
phantom_opera
30-04-12, 12:15
Minority, as you can see we are the minority that can see this.
Over the years, in the name of motivating the workforce and economic progress, this country has stressed soooo much on material superiority! The rich is glorified, the poor condemned to receiving $300/$400 handouts and even a $3 increase has to be debated in parliament to further whack these people.
Everyone here wants to progress materially, they want to own more, get more money, buy this buy that, so that they can feel that they are superior than others. But they dont understand that human superiority is NOT a PC, not a car, not money in the bank account. Its the heart that matters.
Anyway, not many will understand what an Office Boy post also, so I keep it short.
DKSG
When you were born as Singaporeans, you are destined to work your life for Singapore Inc already. Let me repeat our founding father Mr LKY speech:
To the Middle Class:
Singapore is surrounded by Muslim countries. Singapore has no natural resources. In order to survive, Singaporeans cannot be complacent, one mistake, the whole country can go back to kampong living standard. Singaporeans are deliberately trained to be kiasu, must recognize A-Z at the age of 2, must perform show and tell at the age of 6, start British Council lesson at the age of 4 , to respect Ah Gong decision of CPF 2.5% rate, to be materialistic. Most middle class will pay 500k for 4 cars in Singapore, another 500k for the only property they have, buy another 500k shit of insurance to dream of retirement .... once all your money is in Singapore ... there is no other way but to continue to be slaves
To the Upper Middle Class:
We will ensure property is a good investment. Please continue to own multiple properties in Singapore while some you may migrate to NZ, Australia, Canada. We will ensure property price is inflated and ensure you get good rental yield
To the Rich:
Welcome to our gambling dens and play ground for the rich
To the poor:
Please move to JB when you are old :banghead:
A pity, many citizens still didn't realize this FACT. By the time they do realize, their nx gen already screwed. Same like our previous gen, they are the ones who causes us to be screwed by voting for the wrong party.
When you were born as Singaporeans, you are destined to work your life for Singapore Inc already. Let me repeat our founding father Mr LKY speech:
To the Middle Class:
Singapore is surrounded by Muslim countries. Singapore has no natural resources. In order to survive, Singaporeans cannot be complacent, one mistake, the whole country can go back to kampong living standard. Singaporeans are deliberately trained to be kiasu, must recognize A-Z at the age of 2, must perform show and tell at the age of 6, start British Council lesson at the age of 4 , to respect Ah Gong decision of CPF 2.5% rate, to be materialistic. Most middle class will pay 500k for 4 cars in Singapore, another 500k for the only property they have, buy another 500k shit of insurance to dream of retirement .... once all your money is in Singapore ... there is no other way but to continue to be slaves
To the Upper Middle Class:
We will ensure property is a good investment. Please continue to own multiple properties in Singapore while some you may migrate to NZ, Australia, Canada. We will ensure property price is inflated and ensure you get good rental yield
To the Rich:
Welcome to our gambling dens and play ground for the rich
To the poor:
Please move to JB when you are old :banghead:
A pity, many citizens still didn't realize this FACT. By the time they do realize, their nx gen already screwed. Same like our previous gen, they are the ones who causes us to be screwed by voting for the wrong party.
So you feel "screwed" ? "screwed" by previous generation?
So which party do you think our last generation should have voted? ie.. the "right party" in your opinion. And since this is a property forum how do you think it will affect current property prices if the previous generation had voted differently. Or would it be the same, worse.... or better... and if better.. how and why.
Are you saying that if Singapore was less successful than property prices would be cheaper.... therefore the previous geneartion should have voted for a party that would make Singapore less successful.... hmm interesting
So you feel "screwed" ? "screwed" by previous generation?
So which party do you think our last generation should have voted? ie.. the "right party" in your opinion. And since this is a property forum how do you think it will affect current property prices if the previous generation had voted differently. Or would it be the same, worse.... or better... and if better.. how and why.
Are you saying that if Singapore was less successful than property prices would be cheaper.... therefore the previous geneartion should have voted for a party that would make Singapore less successful.... hmm interesting
Just one sentence for all your question marks.
Under a democratic gov, Singapore will be 10 times more successfull than it is today.
So if Singapore is 10 times more successful, will the property prices be 10 times more expensive?
Just one sentence for all your question marks.
Under a democratic gov, Singapore will be 10 times more successfull than it is today.
So if Singapore is 10 times more successful, will the property prices be 10 times more expensive?
There!.... Can't answer right....?
Thing is, if you are talking about socio-political issues there is no end to the debate. No one is right or wrong.. what we know now is with hindsight and with hindsight we can argue till the cows come home. Fact is I am not interested in the least who is in power.
But let's be practical and logical about it. Property prices are tied firmly to the economical success of the country. And as such, you can't have it both ways....ie. good economy with low property prices. The gahmen can only do so much to suppress the property prices. A lot is up to the market.
The feeling of being screwed is a "born loser" mentality. Look through the fog and deal with the reality of the situation.
So if Singapore is 10 times more successful, will the property prices be 10 times more expensive?
We will be going into a infinite loop to debate, sorry I hate to debate.
All the problems today were "man-made", the "2 is enough" policy back in the 70s explains all.
As for your question of 10 times successfull = 10 times more exp, hahahaha sorry I really dunno how to answer.:doh: everyone has a different gauge to measure success :D
There!.... Can't answer right....?
Wah I no need go toilet no need go lunch must die stick to the computer to check whether anyone asking me a question ah:doh: wait a while lah
Bro,
I was talking about property but you are talking about politics...Your scope is way bigger than mine... I can't win
Anyway, I don't want a debate either, however what I do notice is that increasingly Singaporeans are blaming their lot on factors other than themselves... that to me is a waste of time. Better to look at the situation, the challeges it presents and deal with it instead of moaning...
ok ... enough said... brgds.
We will be going into a infinite loop to debate, sorry I hate to debate.
All the problems today were "man-made", the "2 is enough" policy back in the 70s explains all.
As for your question of 10 times successfull = 10 times more exp, hahahaha sorry I really dunno how to answer.:doh: everyone has a different gauge to measure success :D
rattydrama
30-04-12, 14:01
So if Singapore is 10 times more successful, will the property prices be 10 times more expensive?
No if you have already bou 10 houses 10 years ago, you are ten times less stressful and 10 times more successful.
The gahmen can only do so much to suppress the property prices. A lot is up to the market.
Not when the problems were created by them :D
By opening the floodgate and let so much foreigners into sg within such a short period of time, this is how the market will react, price shoot upwards. Best thing is - more is coming, so what kind of CM will slow down the market?
Don't you think it is kinda oxymoron? Left hand open the floodgate right hand put some tiny stones to block the water?
Bro,
I was talking about property but you are talking about politics...Your scope is way bigger than mine... I can't win
Anyway, I don't want a debate either, however what I do notice is that increasingly Singaporeans are blaming their lot on factors other than themselves... that to me is a waste of time. Better to look at the situation, the challeges it presents and deal with it instead of moaning...
ok ... enough said... brgds.
Peace bro :D :cheers5:
rattydrama
30-04-12, 14:10
Not when the problems were created by them :D
By opening the floodgate and let so much foreigners into sg within such a short period of time, this is how the market will react, price shoot upwards. Best thing is - more is coming, so what kind of CM will slow down the market?
Don't think it is kinda oxymoron? Left hand open the floodgate right hand put some tiny stones to block the water?
adversity is opportunity.
those who foresee 2 years ago the floodgate will open and jumped in are smiling all the way to the bank now.
however, no use to look back just think of the future... and I think the answer is clear.
adversity is opportunity.
those who foresee 2 years ago the floodgate will open and jumped in are smiling all the way to the bank now.
however, no use to look back just think of the future... and I think the answer is clear.
Yupz, especially the developers, they r not stupid. They are still bidding top dollars for land due to the 6m population target.
My ex boss used to tell me, anything that has got to do with money = supply n demand. It can never be any other reason.
Bro,
I was talking about property but you are talking about politics...Your scope is way bigger than mine... I can't win
Anyway, I don't want a debate either, however what I do notice is that increasingly Singaporeans are blaming their lot on factors other than themselves... that to me is a waste of time. Better to look at the situation, the challeges it presents and deal with it instead of moaning...
ok ... enough said... brgds.
LIKE! :cheers5:
phantom_opera
30-04-12, 14:39
Let's not degenerate into political debate ... the reality is that the entire grand scheme of Singapore Inc is a product of the Lee family ... whether Singapore could have been more or less successful if the plan was different is subject to debate ... b
So for Singapore Inc, it is either you are with them or you are against them ... those middle class who don't play by the rules die pain pain 10X:
1. Tell you not to sell your HDB to make peanut $$, see lah ... now homeless
2. Singaporeans must be stupid to sell their HDB when garmen is spending $$ to ensure it is well maintained and you can rent out when you are old
3. People like Mr B will end up as losers
To the upper middle class who don't play by the rules:
1. They are losers
2. Sue them if they openly challenge us
upper middle class who are successful are MIWs or top civil servants ... don't worry, Ah Gong will take care
To the rich/ultra-rich (Indian miner bought Sentosa bungalow for weekend home)
1. Welcome welcome
Yupz, especially the developers, they r not stupid. They are still bidding top dollars for land due to the 6m population target.
My ex boss used to tell me, anything that has got to do with money = supply n demand. It can never be any other reason.
got. vice.
Let's not degenerate into political debate ... the reality is that the entire grand scheme of Singapore Inc is a product of the Lee family ... whether Singapore could have been more or less successful if the plan was different is subject to debate ... b
So for Singapore Inc, it is either you are with them or you are against them ... those middle class who don't play by the rules die pain pain 10X:
1. Tell you not to sell your HDB to make peanut $$, see lah ... now homeless
2. Singaporeans must be stupid to sell their HDB when garmen is spending $$ to ensure it is well maintained and you can rent out when you are old
3. People like Mr B will end up as losers
To the upper middle class who don't play by the rules:
1. They are losers
2. Sue them if they openly challenge us
upper middle class who are successful are MIWs or top civil servants ... don't worry, Ah Gong will take care
To the rich/ultra-rich (Indian miner bought Sentosa bungalow for weekend home)
1. Welcome welcome
You want to lim kopi eh? :D
You want to lim kopi eh? :D
Dont think Phantom they cannot find you ar!
Do be careful la ...
DKSG
You guys forgot phantom can hide inside a mirror, any mirror including those heavily guarded toilets in oxley road :D
Try this
http://forums.asiaone.com/showthread.php?t=49287#1
Let's be pragmatic. You know that you can't change the politics/policies.
The question becomes how you position yourself in the current situation. What do we know?
1) there's going to be 25k foreign talent coming in every year
2) interest rates are going to be low for the next 2 years, thanks to QEs
3) inflation is going to continue to be high.
4) there may be more CMs coming if prices continue to rise.
What should you do? The answer is obvious. There's never been a better time to be in debt.
Yes, there may be more CMs but that means prices are still going up. Perhaps there is more incentive to buy now before the next CM takes away your buying power!:cheers4:
phantom_opera
30-04-12, 17:52
Let's be pragmatic. You know that you can't change the politics/policies.
The question becomes how you position yourself in the current situation. What do we know?
1) there's going to be 25k foreign talent coming in every year
2) interest rates are going to be low for the next 2 years, thanks to QEs
3) inflation is going to continue to be high.
4) there may be more CMs coming if prices continue to rise.
What should you do? The answer is obvious. There's never been a better time to be in debt.
Yes, there may be more CMs but that means prices are still going up. Perhaps there is more incentive to buy now before the next CM takes away your buying power!:cheers4:
Yes, follow MIWs and chiong and own your dream landed properties, CCR or OCR condos ... don't you see they interviewed garmen servants who bought Sky Habitat ...
Let's be pragmatic. You know that you can't change the politics/policies.
The question becomes how you position yourself in the current situation. What do we know?
1) there's going to be 25k foreign talent coming in every year
2) interest rates are going to be low for the next 2 years, thanks to QEs
3) inflation is going to continue to be high.
4) there may be more CMs coming if prices continue to rise.
What should you do? The answer is obvious. There's never been a better time to be in debt.
Yes, there may be more CMs but that means prices are still going up. Perhaps there is more incentive to buy now before the next CM takes away your buying power!:cheers4:
I agree. Imagine the number of people who kanna it when the CM came out on the 40% deposit for second property ? Many of my friends were swept out of the market overnight! And they go back to the drawing board to study what to do next!
And while they are pondering over what to do next, property prices inched up 5% over the next 12 months!
So, without sounding like a broken record, please find a good buy and park your money into property. What we are seeing here is definitely a steady increase in prices in the next quarter or two (at least). The government's aim is to ensure that the market wont runaway and foreigners come in and buy up too many properties. This is the way of giving locals a chance at the pie first.
Remember, even if prices dip, the government is on our side, they can slowly remove the CMs and stop land sales to stablise any significant decrease.
DKSG
I wished Ah B is here to see these!
Agree 100% :D
Let's be pragmatic. You know that you can't change the politics/policies.
The question becomes how you position yourself in the current situation. What do we know?
1) there's going to be 25k foreign talent coming in every year
2) interest rates are going to be low for the next 2 years, thanks to QEs
3) inflation is going to continue to be high.
4) there may be more CMs coming if prices continue to rise.
What should you do? The answer is obvious. There's never been a better time to be in debt.
Yes, there may be more CMs but that means prices are still going up. Perhaps there is more incentive to buy now before the next CM takes away your buying power!:cheers4:
You guys forgot phantom can hide inside a mirror, any mirror including those heavily guarded toilets in oxley road :D
Try this
http://forums.asiaone.com/showthread.php?t=49287#1
You should post link to Edmond fb so that we can all go and carry his oh so big balls
25 Aug `10, 10:55AM
Netizen arrested by
police for posting anti-
YOG remarks on
Facebook
A netizen Abdul Malek
was arrested by the police
yesterday purportedly for
posting anti-YOG remarks
on Facebook.
Malek wrote on Facebook
that he was questioned by
the police from Bedok
Police Division on the
charge of “ inciting
violence and public
disorder” under Section
267 Chapter 244 of the
penal code. His laptop was
also seized.
[Source: I hate YOG
Facebook]
The New Paper reported
today that the founder of
the “I hate YOG Facebook”
Mr Edmund Khor has also
been called up for
questioning by the police.
According to unconfirmed
tip-offs we received, a raid
was conducted yesterday
which saw a dozen
netizens being arrested in
connection with the
involvement in the anti-
YOG Facebook.
Started only two weeks
ago, the Facebook has
garnered more than 2,700
friends so far.
-TR
UltimateAro888
01-05-12, 08:47
Garments capitalise on pple greed....
Absd, coe, high land bidder price,...
who gain most $.end of day sitting behind the scene?
I wished Ah B is here to see these!
didn't he transform into 'basically'?
Garments capitalise on pple greed....
Absd, coe, high land bidder price,...
who gain most $.end of day sitting behind the scene?
+1 that's the crux of the problem. All policy driven, not real market forces. As consumers, we are always in anticipation mode...anticipating when number of coe will fall/rise to make our purchasing decision, anticipating if more CMs coming, anticipating if more foreigners coming and their impact, the list goes on. Its one big casino if you asked me.
1) there's going to be 25k foreign talent coming in every year:cheers4:
to be more precious, it is at least 25,000 and not below 25,000 and the number here refers to the new citizens excluding the PRs and Work permit holders.
Now the questions, if a family of 4, does not means that the entire family is to be new citizens, or just one?
rattydrama
01-05-12, 10:05
to be more precious, it is at least 25,000 and not below 25,000 and the number here refers to the new citizens excluding the PRs and Work permit holders.
Now the questions, if a family of 4, does not means that the entire family is to be new citizens, or just one?
Its should be the entire family. Not all family will start with 4. My estimate is 25K/2 = at least 12.5k units/per year for citizens. The rest goes to PR & foreigners.
+1 that's the crux of the problem. All policy driven, not real market forces. As consumers, we are always in anticipation mode...anticipating when number of coe will fall/rise to make our purchasing decision, anticipating if more CMs coming, anticipating if more foreigners coming and their impact, the list goes on. Its one big casino if you asked me.
LIKE!!!!!........
FilthyRich
03-05-12, 09:52
Yes prices influenced by policy is the main point I would like to bring up.
Hope that a new approach could be implemented other than the BTO scheme which is implemented.
Singapore is a small country, continue building will only push up the price of land even further.
phantom_opera
03-05-12, 10:11
Yes prices influenced by policy is the main point I would like to bring up.
Hope that a new approach could be implemented other than the BTO scheme which is implemented.
Singapore is a small country, continue building will only push up the price of land even further.
it is scary that D16 land price is around $300psf during 2008/2009 ... now Jurong East is targeting 650psf, more than double
FilthyRich
03-05-12, 10:15
Remove all the Landed property go for high rise building! LOL
Let's be pragmatic. You know that you can't change the politics/policies.
The question becomes how you position yourself in the current situation. What do we know?
1) there's going to be 25k foreign talent coming in every year
2) interest rates are going to be low for the next 2 years, thanks to QEs
3) inflation is going to continue to be high.
4) there may be more CMs coming if prices continue to rise.
What should you do? The answer is obvious. There's never been a better time to be in debt.
Yes, there may be more CMs but that means prices are still going up. Perhaps there is more incentive to buy now before the next CM takes away your buying power!:cheers4:
Correction...now according to a new report....they are recommending 30K NEW citizens...:D
6.8M popn in 2030 .....quick computation...additional 1.8m residents in 2030 = 600K more households(assuming 3 per hsehold) = 33.3K new accommodation needed per yr from now till 2030 !!!! Glut or Deficit ????
Why more migrants needed in S'pore
By Imelda Saad | Posted: 03 May 2012 0935 hrs
SINGAPORE:
Another study has been released in support of Singapore's need to attract new migrants to slow down the impact of an ageing and dwindling population.
Released by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), the report is the first to take into account the country's non-resident population.
This includes those on work permits, long-term social visit passes and foreign students.
In its report, the institute sets out three scenarios.
One, where the proportion of foreigners remains at 25 per cent (or one in four) of the total population.
Two, where this proportion drops to 20 per cent (or one in five).
And three, where the proportion is raised to 33 per cent (or one in three).
For all scenarios, it is assumed that Singapore will take in 30,000 new citizens or Permanent Residents every year, and the country's Total Fertility Rate remains at 1.24
The report states that a higher non-resident population will mean a larger total population, from the current 5 million now to 6.8 million in 2030, if the proportion of foreigners in the population is raised to 33 per cent.
And while the average population will still get older, a higher proportion of non-residents will slow this process down.
The same is said for the support ration between a working adult and an elderly.
While the ratio will still decline, with more foreigners in the midst, the impact will be somewhat mitigated.
Assuming the country's Total Fertility Rate remains at 1.24 and it brings in 30,000 new citizens or PRs yearly with non-residents, the support ratio now for every one elderly aged 65 and above to a working adult is 1:10.3.
In about 20 years, this will be halved at 1:5.1, if foreigners make up 33 per cent of the population.
If Singapore takes in no immigrants, there will be only about two working adults supporting each elderly person, by then.
So, even with more foreigners in the mix, there will be fewer Singaporeans supporting the elderly.
But the paper shows that the problem is exacerbated without taking in migrants.
With or without foreigners, the labour force will be hit.
Even with the bumped-up crop of foreigners, the report shows the growth in total labour force will dip from the average 3.6 per cent annual growth which Singapore has been enjoying since the 70s.
With the current proportion of one in four foreigners in the midst, the labour force will grow by 1.04 per cent over the next 10 years.
Raising the proportion to one in three will see the labour force grow to 2.47 per cent annually, over the same period.
The IPS report comes just a week after a similar paper was issued by the National Population and Talent Division.
Both papers present population projections based on certain assumption and are not meant to be forecasts or predictions.
Together, the reports will form the basis of a national discussion on populations issues that will culminate in a White Paper to be released by the end of the year.
The White Paper on Population will set out issues important to Singaporeans and map out strategies for a sustainable population.
This will cover areas such as housing, transport and land use.
- CNA/wk
Correction...now according to a new report....they are recommending 30K NEW citizens...:D
6.8M popn in 2030 .....quick computation...additional 1.8m residents in 2030 = 600K more households(assuming 3 per hsehold) = 33.3K new accommodation needed per yr from now till 2030 !!!! Glut or Deficit ????
The next round of high population increase may only come after 2016 election, when the election is over, and more BTOs, MRT lines and road and hospital expansions are completed.
The next round of high population increase may only come after 2016 election, when the election is over, and more BTOs, MRT lines and road and hospital expansions are completed.
My gut feel is that it is already happening NOW. They will only slow down in 2014/15, one or two yrs before election with zero growth in 2016 so that when they are questioned, they can tell you with a straight face that population growth in 2016 was neglible yr-on-yr compared to 2014/15.
But you are right that after election in 2016, they will rev up the engine again.....fast & furious.
My gut feel is that it is already happening NOW. They will only slow down in 2014/15, one or two yrs before election with zero growth in 2016 so that when they are questioned, they can tell you with a straight face that population growth in 2016 was neglible yr-on-yr compared to 2014/15.
But you are right that after election in 2016, they will rev up the engine again.....fast & furious.
Its a necessary evil. WO injection of new population we cannot grow. Also all the older people holding to prop need to sell n pass the assets to children. So its a win win. We also want to buy something now n it worth more in 2030 don't we?also
rattydrama
03-05-12, 20:12
My gut feel is that it is already happening NOW. They will only slow down in 2014/15, one or two yrs before election with zero growth in 2016 so that when they are questioned, they can tell you with a straight face that population growth in 2016 was neglible yr-on-yr compared to 2014/15.
But you are right that after election in 2016, they will rev up the engine again.....fast & furious.
the land cost near MRT has gone up significantly. I doubt we will get any bargains in future. 2014/15 maybe a good chance for us to grab ccr, hopefully.
I shall be a property agent now
so many friends calling me now, and wanting to buy...
Yes prices influenced by policy is the main point I would like to bring up.
Hope that a new approach could be implemented other than the BTO scheme which is implemented.
Singapore is a small country, continue building will only push up the price of land even further.
Build will push price up, but don't build also will push price up..... like that how?
Subtlely Gahmen is trying to send msg to all...., we need more population (be it citizen, PR or FT) to grow, if not will stagnate. This is Gahmen belief..., need more of everything....:D
I shall be a property agent now
so many friends calling me now, and wanting to buy...
Worth considering, with ur knowledge of the market confirm huat. As an agent u will have more "feel" of the market & contribute here with us. Many here will support u. Cheong ah :cheers4:
I shall be a property agent now
so many friends calling me now, and wanting to buy...
Haha... My property agent fren told me I should be an agent.
The next round of high population increase may only come after 2016 election, when the election is over, and more BTOs, MRT lines and road and hospital expansions are completed.
Correct. But govt now doing the psyche work...so that when the tsunami arrives, we're prepared with open arms:scared-4:
Correct. But govt now doing the psyche work...so that when the tsunami arrives, we're prepared with open arms:scared-4:
I forgot to add that by 2016 or thereabouts all the developments now being built and sold will TOP. How's that for timing??? So there will no shortages and owners will be happy too 'coz no need fire sale. When we blamed the govt for not preparing the infrastructure the last time, I guessed they have learnt their lesson now.
Its a necessary evil. WO injection of new population we cannot grow. Also all the older people holding to prop need to sell n pass the assets to children. So its a win win. We also want to buy something now n it worth more in 2030 don't we?also
Yep...must observe population growth and time the mkt carefully....
the land cost near MRT has gone up significantly. I doubt we will get any bargains in future. 2014/15 maybe a good chance for us to grab ccr, hopefully.
If population target is really 6.8m, my rough calculation already estimate we need approx 33.3K new accomodation per YEAR from now till 2030 to house the new population. There will always be a lag between the supply coming onstream and the population increase. Must time entry into market but may be tough. If lucky, mebbe can still catch a CCR ppty in the lull period. Perhaps become property agent the best.....like Laguna...either way- sure win !
Subtlely Gahmen is trying to send msg to all...., we need more population (be it citizen, PR or FT) to grow, if not will stagnate. This is Gahmen belief..., need more of everything....:D
Why the obsession with growth? At any expense?
Cannot accept 3% growth?
china grow 7% and everyone scream slow down liao... bloody hell... still 7%.
Yep...must observe population growth and time the mkt carefully....
If population target is really 6.8m, my rough calculation already estimate we need approx 33.3K new accomodation per YEAR from now till 2030 to house the new population. There will always be a lag between the supply coming onstream and the population increase. Must time entry into market but may be tough. If lucky, mebbe can still catch a CCR ppty in the lull period. Perhaps become property agent the best.....like Laguna...either way- sure win !
If we reach 6.8mil, I'm not sure I want to be here. It'll be bloody crowded. Mind you, not so long ago HK was around this number. Man, it was so very crowded. Even today, in Singapore, we are already feeling cramped in.
If we reach 6.8mil, I'm not sure I want to be here. It'll be bloody crowded. Mind you, not so long ago HK was around this number. Man, it was so very crowded. Even today, in Singapore, we are already feeling cramped in.
Maybe time to look at Aussie properties...
2010 ~ 2030 = 20 years to go
as of 2010.
3.8mio SC+PR
about 340k 65yo <
about 742k 50yo~64 yo
deaths 17k in 2010
In other words above 50yrs 1mio <......divide by 3.8mio :scared-4:
Quite a number will be handing up their IC from now till 2030, those housing will be recycled into the market....
:cheers2: time to sleep.
Worth considering, with ur knowledge of the market confirm huat. As an agent u will have more "feel" of the market & contribute here with us. Many here will support u. Cheong ah :cheers4:
I passed the RES exam in March. Then I went for an operation, haven't collected the cert yet.
Which agenacy is a better one? any idea?
still got a good job offer on hand, but love the retired life so much.
Perhaps, could be better to be an agent....
regency321
04-05-12, 09:48
I passed the RES exam in March. Then I went for an operation, haven't collected the cert yet.
Which agenacy is a better one? any idea?
still got a good job offer on hand, but love the retired life so much.
Perhaps, could be better to be an agent....
start your own?
I passed the RES exam in March. Then I went for an operation, haven't collected the cert yet.
Which agenacy is a better one? any idea?
still got a good job offer on hand, but love the retired life so much.
Perhaps, could be better to be an agent....
Got distinction for the test?
Depends which segment you want to target bah, for new launches u need to find a good leader from what I heard. Also prepare to erect tentage...hahaha. Selling landed suits u better due to the potential buyers/sellers profile. Ur target 1 unit every 2 mths & still can enjoy ur semi retired lifestyle. Good bargains come along u can add onto ur collection. :cheers4:
I passed the RES exam in March. Then I went for an operation, haven't collected the cert yet.
Which agenacy is a better one? any idea?
still got a good job offer on hand, but love the retired life so much.
Perhaps, could be better to be an agent....
first thing PINCH yourself HARD HARD if you dont feel pain you are qualified to be an agent...i.e agent must be THICK skinned...:D:D:D
cannot be shy..cannot have emotions...must know how to lie/twist turn...:D
I passed the RES exam in March. Then I went for an operation, haven't collected the cert yet.
Which agenacy is a better one? any idea?
still got a good job offer on hand, but love the retired life so much.
Perhaps, could be better to be an agent....
Go for landed segment. With so many NEW citizens, the eligible pool of buyers is going to increase significantly and my feel is that it will be the hottest segment soon. Go for agencies which specialise only in landed.
Must be able to tell half truths as if its real truth without giving it away in your emotions. Puss in Boots look in Shrek!!! ;)
Yes prices influenced by policy is the main point I would like to bring up.
Hope that a new approach could be implemented other than the BTO scheme which is implemented.
Singapore is a small country, continue building will only push up the price of land even further.
Why would continue building push up price of land? Won't that generate more supply slowing growth?
new2mondrian
05-05-12, 08:56
What about this contrarian view. Old people all decanted to Iskandar? Free up resources for the younger ones? Infrastructure there is not bad. Hospitals there include parkway group and raffles medical too.Then this will free up pressure on land prices here... And original assumptions based on 6.8m folks may not be realistic?
What about this contrarian view. Old people all decanted to Iskandar? Free up resources for the younger ones? Infrastructure there is not bad. Hospitals there include parkway group and raffles medical too.Then this will free up pressure on land prices here... And original assumptions based on 6.8m folks may not be realistic?
This 6.8mil figure is new. I remember when they were talking about 6 mil 2-3 years back. How come the new target up 15%? Has something changed recently to confidently declare the nation is able to support this new high? If no GE effect, maybe the new number could be even higher...perhaps even 7.5mil. Time for plan B if that's the case.
Policy can change from time to time
This 6.8mil figure is new. I remember when they were talking about 6 mil 2-3 years back. How come the new target up 15%? Has something changed recently to confidently declare the nation is able to support this new high? If no GE effect, maybe the new number could be even higher...perhaps even 7.5mil. Time for plan B if that's the case.
This 6.8mil figure is new. I remember when they were talking about 6 mil 2-3 years back. How come the new target up 15%? Has something changed recently to confidently declare the nation is able to support this new high? If no GE effect, maybe the new number could be even higher...perhaps even 7.5mil. Time for plan B if that's the case.
Got more new citizens to vote for them now. They can just do whatever they want - biz as usual for the last 30+yrs.
FilthyRich
09-05-12, 10:20
will Singapore population exceed 10m one day? I wonder.
will Singapore population exceed 10m one day? I wonder.
yup 2 million BORN here and 8 Million,...IMPORTED:simmering:
yes, of which 3m stay in Iskandar
yes, of which 3m stay in Iskandar
u do realize we still have ubin and st john's island eh?
FilthyRich
09-05-12, 11:23
LOL wouldnt mind staying in pular ubin if im like this uber rich guy with a private boat haha
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