View Full Version : Are SG property prices really 'high'
This a just a follow-on thought from another thread.
The govt benchmarks our prices based on the PPI at a certain year (4Q 1998 = 100)
They are saying that prices are 'high' now because we are reaching the peak of the curve (May '96) but is it really correct to term it as such?
Around '96, population was about 3mil and per capita GNI was S$36k.
In 2011, our population was 5.2m and per capita GNI is $62K
I do not have the statistics for the amount of land available for development but it would definitely be a lot more in '96 then it was in 2011.
Based on the above, is it right to say that our current property prices are 'high' just because it is nearing the peak in may '96?
The demographics then was a lot different. I am no economist but think that we adjusted prices for the population size and GDP/GNI, we are probably quite far from the peak in a REAL sense.
if still got pple buy, that mean it is still not expensive lor.. :D
Sengkang site attracts top bid of S$383.3m (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/en/property-management-news/2012/6/33230/Sengkang%20site%20attracts%20top%20bid%20of%20S$383.3m?utm_source=emailer-italerts&utm_medium=edm&utm_campaign=news-daily)
Jun 1, 2012 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
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http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/images/thumb/2/a/a/7/2aa73521289309_1_V235.jpgBy Romesh Navaratnarajah (https://plus.google.com/100211889324198007685/about?hl=en):
The Housing and Development Board (HDB) received a total of five bids for a residential site (pictured) at Sengkang (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/singapore-property-listing/hdb/sengkang) Square / Compassvale Drive, with the top bid of S$383.3 million offered by EL Development Pte Ltd.
Put up for tender on 16 April and slated for condo or flat development, the site measures 22,497.6 sq m and could yield around 710 units. With prior approval, the 99-year leasehold site may also be developed into a combination of flats and strata landed houses.
The second highest bidder was White Haven Properties Pte. Ltd., which offered S$348 million. This was followed by OUE Reef Development Pte. Ltd. (S$340.1 million), Opal Star Pte. Ltd; and Binjai Holdings Pte. Ltd (S$328 million); and Singland Development Pte. Ltd. and UOL Venture Investments Pte. Ltd (S$301.8 million).
Chia Siew Chuin, Director of Research & Advisory at Colliers International, noted that response for the site was “relatively lukewarm” compared to the 12 bids received for a residential site at Boon Lay Way (Jurong Gateway) on Tuesday. Colliers said this was due to the availability of many well-located condominium sites whereby the tenders will close next month.
“Nevertheless, EL Development Pte Ltd put in an optimistic bid, topping the five-way tender at S$383.33 million or S$527.65 psf per plot.”
Joseph Tan, Executive Director, Residential at CBRE, said: “Although only five bids were submitted for this site, the quantum of the bids signifies developers’ confidence in mass-market housing and in sites that are located near MRT stations.”
Tan added that the top bid could translate to a breakeven cost of between S$900 psf and S$950 psf.
The HDB will announce the successful tenderer after all the bids have been evaluated.
Meanwhile, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has announced the final tender results for the Boon Lay Way (Jurong Gateway) site (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2012/5/33196/boon-lay-way-site-hotly-contested-draws-12-bids).
MCL Land Limited won the tender after offering a top bid of S$369.388 million, which works out to around S$705.10 psf ppr. The 99-year leasehold site is estimated to yield 590 units.
phantom_opera
01-06-12, 18:01
This a just a follow-on thought from another thread.
The govt benchmarks our prices based on the PPI at a certain year (4Q 1998 = 100)
They are saying that prices are 'high' now because we are reaching the peak of the curve (May '96) but is it really correct to term it as such?
Around '96, population was about 3mil and per capita GNI was S$36k.
In 2011, our population was 5.2m and per capita GNI is $62K
I do not have the statistics for the amount of land available for development but it would definitely be a lot more in '96 then it was in 2011.
Based on the above, is it right to say that our current property prices are 'high' just because it is nearing the peak in may '96?
The demographics then was a lot different. I am no economist but think that we adjusted prices for the population size and GDP/GNI, we are probably quite far from the peak in a REAL sense.
M3
Dec 1996 148,494.7
Apr 2012 458,500.3
Almost 3X money is circulating now, you salary up 3X from 1996, if yes congrats, if no u lose
M3
Dec 1996 148,494.7
Apr 2012 458,500.3
Almost 3X money is circulating now, you salary up 3X from 1996, if yes congrats, if no u lose
Hmm, my salary has gone up 3X for the past 5 yrs leh. :D
And out of property investment just for the past 5 yrs, I've made almost 5 yrs worth of my current annual salary.
Back in 1996, I was still serving NS!
Hmm, my salary has gone up 3X for the past 5 yrs leh. :D
And out of property investment just for the past 5 yrs, I've made almost 5 yrs worth of my current annual salary.
Back in 1996, I was still serving NS!
what is your annual salary? :D
50K 100K 300K?
phantom_opera
01-06-12, 18:31
Not surprising, 1 out of 6 families in Singapore has 1 million to invest :p
what is your annual salary? :D
50K 100K 300K?
It doesnt matter how much my salary is. :rolleyes:
The underlying factor is the method/assumption pple use to measure national average income vs housing price is wrong. This only works for theories.
The truth is many folks who invested in properties are richer now to invest further. It is no longer just the income, it's the savings as well.
Not surprising, 1 out of 6 families in Singapore has 1 million to invest :p
Am I (My family household income + disposal income) belong to the one out of six families?
phantom_opera
01-06-12, 18:46
Am I (My family household income + disposal income) belong to the one out of six families?
No chance :p But with animal spirit, very soon :D
Not surprising, 1 out of 6 families in Singapore has 1 million to invest :p
$1M cash or $1M credit or 1 million guts? :scared-5:
No chance :p But with animal spirit, very soon :D
Let me get a 1.3-1.5mil SGD property to qualify then.
Let me get a 1.3-1.5mil SGD property to qualify then.
Yeah man, slowly build up your wealth over time through leverage and assets acquisitions. One day, you will join the landed gang.
Let me get a 1.3-1.5mil SGD property to qualify then.
bro, if someone has only 260k & dp for a 1.3mil hse, he become an instant millionaire? That's fast.
CondoInterested
02-06-12, 02:52
If I am not wrong, millionaire means liquid assets including cash, but excluding the 1 one you are staying if not fully paid. Any thing not paid and not making returns are liabilities, they are not assets and not in the millionaire assets equation.
Oh, forget, it's in USD somemore.
Means USD 1million in Investible assets. Usually does not include place of residence.
NorthernStar
02-06-12, 08:07
Let me get a 1.3-1.5mil SGD property to qualify then.
If u do that, u r much further to qualify it.
Let me get a 1.3-1.5mil SGD property to qualify then.
Quick. Act now.
you can't even bring your landed house with you when you die..
no point la..
i rather travel around the world x 80 times ..
than having a landed..
ikan bilis
02-06-12, 10:15
you can't even bring your landed house with you when you die..
no point la..
i rather travel around the world x 80 times ..
than having a landed..
ummm.... your wish can come true... buy a luxury boat house... you got both landed and can travel the world 80x.... ;)
you can't even bring your landed house with you when you die..
no point la..
i rather travel around the world x 80 times ..
than having a landed..
Hmm.....does anyone bring along any property when they die?? Personal dream I call this, which nobody can dispute...:o
ok la... i admit i am jealous of those who got landed house.. :banghead::banghead: :p
It is the legacy that passes on to next generation.
Hmm.....does anyone bring along any property when they die?? Personal dream I call this, which nobody can dispute...:o
This a just a follow-on thought from another thread.
The govt benchmarks our prices based on the PPI at a certain year (4Q 1998 = 100)
They are saying that prices are 'high' now because we are reaching the peak of the curve (May '96) but is it really correct to term it as such?
Around '96, population was about 3mil and per capita GNI was S$36k.
In 2011, our population was 5.2m and per capita GNI is $62K
I do not have the statistics for the amount of land available for development but it would definitely be a lot more in '96 then it was in 2011.
Based on the above, is it right to say that our current property prices are 'high' just because it is nearing the peak in may '96?
The demographics then was a lot different. I am no economist but think that we adjusted prices for the population size and GDP/GNI, we are probably quite far from the peak in a REAL sense.
my idea of high is simple. Common sense lah.
Can the average singaporean household afford to pay of their property with their INCOME at todays prices at the average interest rate of 3-4%
Example, average resale flat now is 600k? what is household income? then you do your maths lor.
Many can afford if postpone retirement :D
I think prices are between are good, no sharp ups or downs. A gd fren invested in a few shophouses in geylang. Very good rental yield lol.........
my idea of high is simple. Common sense lah.
Can the average singaporean household afford to pay of their property with their INCOME at todays prices at the average interest rate of 3-4%
Example, average resale flat now is 600k? what is household income? then you do your maths lor.
But the govt benchmark is comparing it with the peak in '96 when the psf prices were the highest. The psf price is a constant so are you saying that NOW, people's disposable income are lower and interest rates are higher than in '96?
I have already provided per capita GNI which has almost doubled compared to '96 and I recall that interest rates around 1996 to 98 was hovering around 5% vs the 2-3% now.
What I am saying is that if psf prices are adjusted for the income and population effect, we are far from the '96 peak and whether it is right to label current prices as high is debatable.
It is the legacy that passes on to next generation.
yea. if you got big family ..eg. 3-4 children
it is good to pass on to them but bad thing is they will be 'lazy' to go out work when know they got alot of $$ :D
felicia_sg
04-06-12, 09:39
New HDB BTO still cheap right? Gov say New HDB for citizens still cheap, so why you talk about resale HDB which is reserved for PRs to buy? As a citizen, won't it be better for resale HDB to be expensive? Or you are not Singapore citizen? Average citizens are better off now with HDB loan of 2.6% now (or 1.3% for loans from banks) vs the norm of 4-5% in 1990s. Looks like low interest will continue for very long time!
my idea of high is simple. Common sense lah.
Can the average singaporean household afford to pay of their property with their INCOME at todays prices at the average interest rate of 3-4%
Example, average resale flat now is 600k? what is household income? then you do your maths lor.
New HDB BTO still cheap right? Gov say New HDB for citizens still cheap, so why you talk about resale HDB which is reserved for PRs to buy? As a citizen, won't it be better for resale HDB to be expensive? Or you are not Singapore citizen? Average citizens are better off now with HDB loan of 2.6% now (or 1.3% for loans from banks) vs the norm of 4-5% in 1990s. Looks like low interest will continue for very long time!
BTO 3RM - $280k-$300k ? haven't include furnishing which can eat up another $50k or more.. :banghead:
ikan bilis
04-06-12, 12:21
But the govt benchmark is comparing it with the peak in '96 when the psf prices were the highest. The psf price is a constant so are you saying that NOW, people's disposable income are lower and interest rates are higher than in '96?
I have already provided per capita GNI which has almost doubled compared to '96 and I recall that interest rates around 1996 to 98 was hovering around 5% vs the 2-3% now.
What I am saying is that if psf prices are adjusted for the income and population effect, we are far from the '96 peak and whether it is right to label current prices as high is debatable.
good points!!... ;)
IMO, it boils down to their upbringing. Do you want them to have a few choices or no choice?
yea. if you got big family ..eg. 3-4 children
it is good to pass on to them but bad thing is they will be 'lazy' to go out work when know they got alot of $$ :D
phantom_opera
04-06-12, 15:34
IMO, it boils down to their upbringing. Do you want them to have a few choices or no choice?
It depends on whether there is still outstanding debt when u pass on to them :D
I am talking about fully-paid up properties with passive nett rental income.
It depends on whether there is still outstanding debt when u pass on to them :D
It depends on whether there is still outstanding debt when u pass on to them :D
Even if there is outstanding debt, sale of the property is sufficient to repay the loan and be able to cash out! :cool:
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