View Full Version : in real estate: govt, develpr, owners, agents, contractr all make $$, so who lose $$?
ikan bilis
20-07-12, 21:25
in real estate market: govt-gls, developers, owners, agents, builders, lawyers, renovators all make $$, like that who lose $$ ??
me fish-brain too small, i can only think of tenants lose $$... but some of them already suckz dry dry by landlord liow ended either every 10-min post bad news on websites, or camp at changi beach....
the tenants are also unable to supply those profits in billions x billions of $$ earned by govt, developers and owners... so who "supplied" those billions of $$ ??
so who lose $$ hur ??... billions of $$ came from where ??... i only know everyone (except tenants) make huge $$... can some old-birds here please help me with this questions, me fish-brain no powerful enough... :ashamed1: :(
There are 3 groups who lose $$$:
1) Those who keep singing that property will crash >30% and wait wait wait until cannot wait have to buy at sky high price! :p
2) Those who board (or "bought") the "boats" (here is "house") late, so the earlier to board (or "bought") the boat ("house") and hold long long (don't sell) the better! :D
3) Those who rent! :banghead:
Who supplied the billions of $$$ - Answer: Govts all over the world from paper money printing!
in real estate market: govt-gls, developers, owners, agents, builders, lawyers, renovators all make $$, like that who lose $$ ??
me fish-brain too small, i can only think of tenants lose $$... but some of them already suckz dry dry by landlord liow ended either every 10-min post bad news on websites, or camp at changi beach....
the tenants are also unable to supply those profits in billions x billions of $$ earned by govt, developers and owners... so who "supplied" those billions of $$ ??
so who lose $$ hur ??... billions of $$ came from where ??... i only know everyone (except tenants) make huge $$... can some old-birds here please help me with this questions, me fish-brain no powerful enough... :ashamed1: :(
I think you can add banks to the list too
in real estate market: govt-gls, developers, owners, agents, builders, lawyers, renovators all make $$, like that who lose $$ ??
me fish-brain too small, i can only think of tenants lose $$... but some of them already suckz dry dry by landlord liow ended either every 10-min post bad news on websites, or camp at changi beach....
the tenants are also unable to supply those profits in billions x billions of $$ earned by govt, developers and owners... so who "supplied" those billions of $$ ??
so who lose $$ hur ??... billions of $$ came from where ??... i only know everyone (except tenants) make huge $$... can some old-birds here please help me with this questions, me fish-brain no powerful enough... :ashamed1: :(
phantom_opera
20-07-12, 22:15
Not zero sum game
Not zero sum game
Agree! It is not a zero sum game since the values of properties go up and down.
The people who win are the people who know how to unlock the values of their assets at the appropriate time and reinvest at appropriate time.
At the end of the day, if the values of your assets increase during bad time, you are a real winner. However, if the value of your assets increase during good time and without unlocking their values, you are still not a winner yet.
Allthepies
20-07-12, 22:59
All make money, but not at the same time
1.Those who make money are those who buy early and had cashed out with profits already.
2.Those who lose money are those who buy high now and ended with more loans.
3.Those who lose big time are those who own nothing now, keep shouting property crash > 30% and wait and wait until cannot wait then buy at even a higher price from those at no. 2
4. Then when property crash, those belongs to no. 3 are baring all the loses.
And also those who buy at any pt of time but can't hold due to job retrenchment or personal financial mismanagement ended up forcing to sell at a loss.
That's why we hv this threat "many CCR selling at a loss"
I'm not referring to just CCR, I guess OCR can also happen as long as those with weak holding power.
If the govt can ensure that population and household incomes continue to grow, housing prices will continue to grow. The "losers" are the young working generation who are forced to work longer to service their houses way into previously defined retirement age.
In a sense, nobody loses financially according to the game plan of the Govt. Just work longer to service the debt, which raises productivity and prolongs life / minimises health costs.
Even housing loans as long as 50 years are allowed to enhance affordability.
Everybody "wins".
phantom_opera
21-07-12, 08:19
everybody wins if GDP continues to grow, everybody loses if depression strikes
or everybody gains initially but all die if like Spain:
Spain’s IBEX stock index fell 5.8 percent, its biggest one-day drop in two years, and the risk premium on government debt hit a euro-era high as its borrowing costs rose to 7.32 percent
everybody wins if GDP continues to grow, everybody loses if depression strikes
or everybody gains initially but all die if like Spain:
Spain’s IBEX stock index fell 5.8 percent, its biggest one-day drop in two years, and the risk premium on government debt hit a euro-era high as its borrowing costs rose to 7.32 percent
Well said. Refer below for more ideas:
http://www.straitstimes.com/STForum/Story/STIStory_824528.html
everybody wins if GDP continues to grow, everybody loses if depression strikes
or everybody gains initially but all die if like Spain:
Spain’s IBEX stock index fell 5.8 percent, its biggest one-day drop in two years, and the risk premium on government debt hit a euro-era high as its borrowing costs rose to 7.32 percent
Yes, IBEX dropped badly, Spain will not be able to live on this tpye of lending rate.
Look like ECB must print more....
phantom_opera
21-07-12, 13:23
Yes, IBEX dropped badly, Spain will not be able to live on this tpye of lending rate.
Look like ECB must print more....
Actually all of us are fighting against Central Banks as they simply press a button, the value of money will shrink in proportion so that they can rescue Wall Street, England, PIIGS, China economy etc. Ultimately, there is no perfect protection against printing of money other than owning something that is limited in supply. That's why properties in London, Manhattan, Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong can hold up well despite threat of deflation and crash of stock markets. In Singapore context, that will be properties in prime location or within walking distance to strategic MRT lines or having seaview, lakeview, golf course view, are commanding a premium just like rare paintings, diamonds, wine etc ... the more money is printing in the world, the more such properties will skyrocket in prices
Don't talk about growing your purchasing power ... what we should be worried is how to preserve our purchasing power. I have very good salary increment over the last few years but I feel like my purchasing power is shrinking :beats-me-man:
The title of this thread is getting irrelevant when rampant money printing by Central Bank is so pervasive
phantom_opera
21-07-12, 13:36
Don't be too excited about 1% capital appreciation per quarter for your gems, Your real enemy is the Central Banks:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/balu8.gif
The economic of the world right now as it is is certainly not normal. Low interest rate with high inflation is not normal. This should be viewed as temporary inbalance and eventually things would get back to normality. The fact that the US and EC are using the same medicine to try to cure their economies will prolong this inbalance..
It is not wrong given the present situation to buy hard assets. The risk attached is that when things return to normality, you may find yourself caught.
In the medium term, inflation will not kill you but the wrong investment decision will. Therefore, it is important to spread your risk and do not put all your eggs in one basket.
For those who could not really afford to buy hard assets, why stretch yourself just to fight inflation. Things will eventually return to normality.
For those who can afford to buy hard assets, buy with peace of mind as long as you need not bother by price correction when things return to normality.
For those who have not buy anything yet, just relax and wait a little bit more. This is the advice from our Finance Minister. He could not be that wrong all we will all be dead ducks.
:not-worthy: The old adage of what he advocate is not what he do applies....
It is like last time they tell your children to study IT & Computer Science, then Bio-Chem.... But their children don't become engineers and bio-chemists/techs... :scared-2:
The economic of the world right now as it is is certainly not normal. Low interest rate with high inflation is not normal. This should be viewed as temporary inbalance and eventually things would get back to normality. The fact that the US and EC are using the same medicine to try to cure their economies will prolong this inbalance..
It is not wrong given the present situation to buy hard assets. The risk attached is that when things return to normality, you may find yourself caught.
In the medium term, inflation will not kill you but the wrong investment decision will. Therefore, it is important to spread your risk and do not put all your eggs in one basket.
For those who could not really afford to buy hard assets, why stretch yourself just to fight inflation. Things will eventually return to normality.
For those who can afford to buy hard assets, buy with peace of mind as long as you need not bother by price correction when things return to normality.
For those who have not buy anything yet, just relax and wait a little bit more. This is the advice from our Finance Minister. He could not be that wrong all we will all be dead ducks.
:not-worthy: The old adage of what he advocate is not what he do applies....
It is like last time they tell your children to study IT & Computer Science, then Bio-Chem.... But their children don't become engineers and bio-chemists/techs... :scared-2:
Clap clap - a deep thinker finally.
I will only accept their advice if they declare they are not vested in properties and will not be vested beyond their primary residence for as long as they hold office.
It's a cruel world. Sad but true.
Leeds u really have this "arr Q" mind set .. :) (dun know what it is ? Ask any of your PRC friend)
1st of all if some one is a nobody (aka losers all the while), he will have nothing to be concerned about his wealth.
The situation described by phantom, and subsequently discussed, is for some one who already has some level of wealth. From middle class above. This group's purchasing power is decreasing by the day. And this group do have a real worry how to manage this situation.
The world is now fueled by endless credit. Back to normal ? What is "normal"? In normal way of spending, no country should have a current account deficit. Today, how many developed countries have current account surplus ?
I am no genius. We are just trying to deal with this as much as we can. So what do you have to offer for this group ? Doing nothing ?
If we look at the "shouting" or warning , for the lack of a better word, there seems to be truth in it, except that it may npt be as bad as it is.
Looking at that same peice of information, and the fact that Britain is having a TECH rececession, is it time to go in?
Saw todays ST , there are 3 group all competing for the same peice of buyers.
One at Tenary Wharf, ther other two cant remember. All goving 5 - 6 % yield.
Agent seems rather honest by advising the downside as well on Capital gain tax if the property appreciate. :cheers1:
Are prices already moderated and is this a good time to invest in London, ?
Looking at the exchanges rate and the interest rate, seems quite ok.
Anyone here knows about the downside of getting a PC in Britain ?
:47:
2.
The main problem with investors is that we need to keep invested. Because of the need to keep invested, we have to choose what to invest given the environment we live in now. As such, logic prevails and most of us now go and buy hard asests.
We buy now for fear of the future or we believe the future is what we believe to become. Could the current economic inbalance with high inflation and low interest rate continue to rule and become the new normal? This is the million dollar question and whoever get it right will be the real winner.
I believe that the low interest rate will stay for a few years. Can those countries pay back if the interest rate rises? Only by having a low interest, those countries might be able to pay back IF their economic goes back to normal.
Printing money could not solve the problem as those countries do not have the solution on how to build up their economy. So printing money gives investors the impression that ECB or US are trying to solve the problems. But are they? They do not have the political will to solve the problem.
My worry is currency war. By printing, the value of the money will decline and it makes the country seems cheap to import their products which they can earn money from exporting. Having the Yuen to appreciate while US dollar devalue, this makes China's products seems more expensive to import while US's products more cheaper. In the end, everyone try to make the current lower that create Currency war.
I do have worry as the current financial problem is not easy to solve as many countries are involved. Singapore commit to IMF for a sum to loan to them. If the loan is not enough for those countries and if they still ask for more money, is Singapore continue to help? It seems like big and deep hole that no amount of money could fill up.
If big recession happens, value of the money will decline a lot while property price will also drop. So there is no way you can protect yourself against big recession. Maybe, gold might be a protection.
The main problem with investors is that we need to keep invested. Because of the need to keep invested, we have to choose what to invest given the environment we live in now. As such, logic prevails and most of us now go and buy hard asests.
We buy now for fear of the future or we believe the future is what we believe to become. Could the current economic inbalance with high inflation and low interest rate continue to rule and become the new normal? This is the million dollar question and whoever get it right will be the real winner.
Allow me to attempt answering the million dollar question. The problem with the US started from the bottom with the people over leveraging and banks giving out loans easily. New money are not finding its way to the people but to financial institutions and finding their ways to Asia.
The problem with the EC started from the top where countries spend beyond their means. Governments and banks went bankrupt and new money are there to restore confidence. The money are not helping the EC in growing their economies but to patch up the holes of the banks and governments. People are not willing to take less resulting in a stalling economy.
All these new money are not going directly to the people to spend but to institutions which eventually find it way to Asia resulting in extremely low interest rate.
Could this be the new normal? It cannot be long because despite plenty of new money, recession is hitting US and Europe. China is feeling the cold with less exports to the West due to low demand. The likelhood is a global recession be it gradually or hard landing as some predicted.
Whatever the case, a global slowdown is a certainty. Asia being a nett exporter will be affected especially Singapore with its open economy. There is nothing I could see right now to tell me otherwise.
The last one holding the baby when the music stops loses money.
our children and grand children will pay the price.
Don't worry, they can start all over again with a new currency and a new regime just like Singapore after World War II... :D
our children and grand children will pay the price.
I read and re-read your passage but can't find the answer.... wait a minute, what's the million dollar question again?
Allow me to attempt answering the million dollar question. The problem with the US started from the bottom with the people over leveraging and banks giving out loans easily. New money are not finding its way to the people but to financial institutions and finding their ways to Asia.
The problem with the EC started from the top where countries spend beyond their means. Governments and banks went bankrupt and new money are there to restore confidence. The money are not helping the EC in growing their economies but to patch up the holes of the banks and governments. People are not willing to take less resulting in a stalling economy.
All these new money are not going directly to the people to spend but to institutions which eventually find it way to Asia resulting in extremely low interest rate.
Could this be the new normal? It cannot be long because despite plenty of new money, recession is hitting US and Europe. China is feeling the cold with less exports to the West due to low demand. The likelhood is a global recession be it gradually or hard landing as some predicted.
Whatever the case, a global slowdown is a certainty. Asia being a nett exporter will be affected especially Singapore with its open economy. There is nothing I could see right now to tell me otherwise.
I read and re-read your passage but can't find the answer.... wait a minute, what's the million dollar question again?
It seems that the question is whether the influx of hot money will sustain or continue to fuel the property boom.
I think its much more complex than just dollars and cents. There are steady and huge shifts in people's values. That enough will sustain a long term growth imo.
our children and grand children will pay the price.
Don't want them to pay the price??
Then buy a few freehold and keep for them in the future.. since ppl keep thinking property price is UP UP UP in the long term, yet KPKB since 5-rm 100k KPKB till now almost 1 mil.. :D
Actually the safest bet in this economic climate is to buy properties in top cities like Singapore. NY, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney...
No matter what happen, prime cities will still be prime cities...
properties in sub prime cities might fall....
they might even close down many suburban town in US due to lack of demand or $$$ but prime cities that generate economic value will always be there..
If prices goes down then so be it!!! stay in it, your children can also use them when they get married...
Lesser risk than buying other assets...
Actually the safest bet in this economic climate is to buy properties in top cities like Singapore. NY, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney...
No matter what happen, prime cities will still be prime cities...
properties in sub prime cities might fall....
they might even close down many suburban town in US due to lack of demand or $$$ but prime cities that generate economic value will always be there..
If prices goes down then so be it!!! stay in it, your children can also use them when they get married...
Lesser risk than buying other assets...
Exactly! if investors really need to invest or part their money somewhere given the current economic environment, the logic prevails and Singapore is one of the best bet. However, like you rightly pointed out, if prices go down due to the balancing of the current inbalance economic environment, you just need to stay in it and maybe pass it on to your children.
However, if you are not so fortunate in not having sufficient spare cash or need to borrow a lot to finance this hard asset, you might want to think hard instead of trying to be one of these investors. They have not much to lose even if prices correct.
ikan bilis
22-07-12, 12:59
Aiya…. Few pages liow and you guys are still like cannot give me some definite answers leh…
These days people are like assuming or take for granted holding some residential properties for ~10yr will make S$0.5-1mil…. try read this thread...
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?123658-9-years-to-make-few-hundred-K-worth-it
But me ikan bilis slog for more than 10yr my total work income also <0.5mil, and me still cannot figure out where that everyone's easy-$$-profit come from… :( :(
phantom_opera
22-07-12, 13:18
U must inflate yourself into bigger fish or take much more risk
I know who lose $$ in real estate. Those who are greedy and those who are ignorant! I have been greedy and I have been ignorant and both times, I lose money in real estate.
I know who lose $$ in real estate. Those who are greedy and those who are ignorant! I have been greedy and I have been ignorant and both times, I lose money in real estate.
Could you share with us your experience by elaborating further?
Aiya…. Few pages liow and you guys are still like cannot give me some definite answers leh…
These days people are like assuming or take for granted holding some residential properties for ~10yr will make S$0.5-1mil…. try read this thread...
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?123658-9-years-to-make-few-hundred-K-worth-it
But me ikan bilis slog for more than 10yr my total work income also <0.5mil, and me still cannot figure out where that everyone's easy-$$-profit come from… :( :(
Nobody loses. It's just that people are more willing to pay for premium or luxury housing. They pay they are happy. Govt, developers, sellers all happy. Buyers pay more but feel good too as not everyone can afford what they buy.
This is the true power of SG govt. No need to create anything with no natural resources. Just need to increase the willingness and ability to spend on housing and cars, by emphasizing the other things like safety and stability.
Aiya…. Few pages liow and you guys are still like cannot give me some definite answers leh…
These days people are like assuming or take for granted holding some residential properties for ~10yr will make S$0.5-1mil…. try read this thread...
:( :(
The thinking that holding property for some 10 years or so should profit half a million dollar is generally true but the timing of buying such property is important to make any profit at all. By this logic, look at those people who bought during the 1997 peak and only manage to breakeven today. These people hold on to their assets for 15 years only to breakeven not forgeting time value of money. Infact, they lost rather heavily buying their assets during the peak.
We are now experiencing another peak. Some said this peak could go even higher. If you take a calculated risk approach, would you think this peak could go higher and by how much? The answer is there but many choose to ignore it because the need to invest often out weight your own rationality.
Answer is there?... where???
The thinking that holding property for some 10 years or so should profit half a million dollar is generally true but the timing of buying such property is important to make any profit at all. By this logic, look at those people who bought during the 1997 peak and only manage to breakeven today. These people hold on to their assets for 15 years only to breakeven not forgeting time value of money. Infact, they lost rather heavily buying their assets during the peak.
We are now experiencing another peak. Some said this peak could go even higher. If you take a calculated risk approach, would you think this peak could go higher and by how much? The answer is there but many choose to ignore it because the need to invest often exceed your own rationality.
phantom_opera
23-07-12, 11:48
The thinking that holding property for some 10 years or so should profit half a million dollar is generally true but the timing of buying such property is important to make any profit at all. By this logic, look at those people who bought during the 1997 peak and only manage to breakeven today. These people hold on to their assets for 15 years only to breakeven not forgeting time value of money. Infact, they lost rather heavily buying their assets during the peak.
We are now experiencing another peak. Some said this peak could go even higher. If you take a calculated risk approach, would you think this peak could go higher and by how much? The answer is there but many choose to ignore it because the need to invest often out weight your own rationality.
If investment is so easy as to refer to historical cases then nobody has any value add anymore. Why do u think we are having the same peaking situation like 1997? The situation of today's credit-flooded world is vastly different from situation in 1997. In a separate thread, I highlighted that our medium family income including cpf is in a far better shape relative to 1997 (i.e. property prices now are much more affordable relative to 1997). So quoting of 1997 is useful to remind people to be vigilant but it cannot be used to be a reason for not investing in properties.
If investment is so easy as to refer to historical cases then nobody has any value add anymore. Why do u think we are having the same peaking situation like 1997? The situation of today's credit-flooded world is vastly different from situation in 1997. In a separate thread, I highlighted that our medium family income including cpf is in a far better shape relative to 1997 (i.e. property prices now are much more affordable relative to 1997). So quoting of 1997 is useful to remind people to be vigilant but it cannot be used to be a reason for not investing in properties.
It is to remind people the risk of buying at the peak and not the reason not to invest in properties.
phantom_opera
23-07-12, 11:54
It is to remind people the risk of buying at the peak and not the reason not to invest in properties.
Can you substantiate your claim first that we are at THE PEAK? Even Mr Basic thinks peak is in 2015 :p
Can you substantiate your claim first that we are at THE PEAK? Even Mr Basic thinks peak is in 2015 :p
Oh! Please read the entire text before asking people to subatantiate. I said: "we are now experiencing another peak. Some said this peak could goes higher". This is what I said.
asset inflation comes out from debt.. debt can be spun out via fiat money printing.
in this case, pple who hold pure money without physical assets loses. the value of their money saved through time is now worth much much less.
just think of banana money and german marks during and after WW1 and 2. or look to zimbabwe where inflation is 10,000%. whoever held on to cash will lose as $1 saved today could only be worth 50cts tmr.
so in an inflationary economy, everyone can earn. tat's why most central banks in major economies have target inflation around 2%. too low and it stops the positive cycle of asset inflation.. too high and riots will overthrow the govt as the poor will run out of money to purchase consumer staples. :hell-hath-no-fury:
on the other deflationary spiral, one can look at Japan where the govt has been trying to inflate the economy without success. in a deflationary economy, consumption stops as pple expect prices to come down more in future and hence delay spending now. capital expenditure also grinds to a halt and the vicious cycle continues with less work, less pay, less disposable income, more savings, less consumption and so on and on and on and on. :tongue3:
I said: "we are now experiencing another peak. Some said this peak could goes higher". This is what I said.
It simply means you dun know either, and you try to phrase it such that no matter what pans out you are not wrong.
I dun know whether this is peak. How can this be peak ? In 1996 Bt Timah already hit 2k psf, and at that time graduate pay was barely 2k. Today 15yrs later with all the inflation and easy credit, bt timah barely reached 2k.
Today as far as property business concerned it is very different from 1996. In 1996 there was no Internet, no REALIS data, not pty guru. Rumours every where. Speculation was the name of the game. That was a real bubble, even at that time.
Do you have any figures to support any of your assertions ?
The thinking that holding property for some 10 years or so should profit half a million dollar is generally true but the timing of buying such property is important to make any profit at all. By this logic, look at those people who bought during the 1997 peak and only manage to breakeven today. These people hold on to their assets for 15 years only to breakeven not forgeting time value of money. Infact, they lost rather heavily buying their assets during the peak.
We are now experiencing another peak. Some said this peak could go even higher. If you take a calculated risk approach, would you think this peak could go higher and by how much? The answer is there but many choose to ignore it because the need to invest often out weight your own rationality.
If you look at TVM but you ignore usage factor.
If a guy stayed in a house, enjoyed it for 15 years and still able to breakeven, how's that bad at all?
It can be ilogical if it was investment and owner wasn't able to rent it out at all. :eek:
Even if I can just a breakeven after 15 years, I will find basic fool to rent it out to, pay part of my installments :tongue3:
one word. Leverage. and nobody loses. just dont overdo it...
Problem is.... how much is considered overdoing it? does everyone know?
you see... that's why its not easy and there will always be losers... and of course winners as well
one word. Leverage. and nobody loses. just dont overdo it...
phantom_opera
23-07-12, 21:46
Problem is.... how much is considered overdoing it? does everyone know?
you see... that's why its not easy and there will always be losers... and of course winners as well
u will know it when u can't sleep and must come this forum to tcss like Mr B
u will know it when u can't sleep and must come this forum to tcss like Mr B
So those who post in this forum at 2-3am are likely overdoing it? :D
one word. Leverage. and nobody loses. just dont overdo it...
Yup, the multiplier effect of a single dollar created via fiat money will dictate how much paper riches can be conjured up and circulate through the economy.
For people who believe we are far from peak, good for you. For those who believe we are near to the peak, good for you too. We are probably closer to knowing the real thing as more events unfold globally.
Numbers tell you only the past and the present but not the future. The difference between a winner and a loser is the ability to see beyond today's numbers. However, the future is unknown. Many will get it wrong and some will get it right. Like a football game, you need some luck to be a winner.
Hopefully for all the bulls, luck is with you. For the bears, you do need some luck to make it through despite all the numbers before you.
He who stay caution in a trying environment will not loose all. He who stay caution during boom will not win all. And he who stay caution during downturn will not even win at all.
ikan bilis
23-07-12, 23:47
alamak !!... you hor... you kong kana boh-kong (talked like no-talked)... :D
Aiyoh.... a lot of rhetoric but content lacking again leh...
Haha... but it is funny to read though... its like a GP essay beating around the bush, lacking substance due to lack of subject matter knowledge.... trying to sound philosophical and laying it thick with irony.
I think have written many of such crap for my Econs paper when I forgot to study for the exams...
For people who believe we are far from peak, good for you. For those who believe we are near to the peak, good for you too. We are probably closer to knowing the real thing as more events unfold globally.
Numbers tell you only the past and the present but not the future. The difference between a winner and a loser is the ability to see beyond today's numbers. However, the future is unknown. Many will get it wrong and some will get it right. Like a football game, you need some luck to be a winner.
Hopefully for all the bulls, luck is with you. For the bears, you do need some luck to make it through despite all the numbers before you.
He who stay caution in a trying environment will not loose all. He who stay caution during boom will not win all. And he who stay caution during downturn will not even win at all.
At a respectable age of 47, this lady cannot attract others if she does not take any step to upgrade herself. She has to go for botox (land-reclamation), make-up, upgrade her perm and hair cut (gardening), socialise (casinos, festivals), and continue to make big posters of herself to promote her popularity and fame. She even has her "Own Day" celebrated in style overseas. With these upgrades, the europeans, the chinese, the americans, and possibly even the indians may treat her to nice dinners, buy her houses, jewellery and even let her manage some of their businesses. She gets young men to be her bodyguards because she is so well-maintained and popular that she puts the younger ones to shame. Men cannot keep their eyes off her and so they will continue to invest in her.
Who is losing money when everyone seems to be making money? - these external people of course :)
alamak !!... you hor... you kong kana boh-kong (talked like no-talked)... :D
In this forum, it is fine to challenge one's thinking or belief but not when one's interest is challenged. Unlike a social or technical forum, this forum have plenty of people with vested interests and they are going to put you down at all costs. It has become less enjoying than you much desire.
Aiyoh.... a lot of rhetoric but content lacking again leh...
Haha... but it is funny to read though... its like a GP essay beating around the bush, lacking substance due to lack of subject matter knowledge.... trying to sound philosophical and laying it thick with irony.
I think have written many of such crap for my Econs paper when I forgot to study for the exams...
For all that have been said, they are not at all philosophical. They are simply common sense. We have been bought up in a society where we rely so much on hard science that we loose our very own ability to common sense. Sad!
ikan bilis
24-07-12, 00:31
At a respectable age of 47, this lady cannot attract others if she does not take any step to upgrade herself. She has to go for botox (land-reclamation), make-up, upgrade her perm and hair cut (gardening), socialise (casinos, festivals), and continue to make big posters of herself to promote her popularity and fame. She even has her "Own Day" celebrated in style overseas. With these upgrades, the europeans, the chinese, the americans, and possibly even the indians may treat her to nice dinners, buy her houses, jewellery and even let her manage some of their businesses. She gets young men to be her bodyguards because she is so well-maintained and popular that she puts the younger ones to shame. Men cannot keep their eyes off her and so they will continue to invest in her.
Who is losing money when everyone seems to be making money? - these external people of course :)
haha... good one.... and reminds me of what george soros said: "Paris Hilton is famous because people pay attention to her. Everyone pays attention to her because she's famous. The cycle feeds off itself."
In this forum, it is fine to challenge one's thinking or belief but not when one's interest is challenged. Unlike a social or technical forum, this forum have plenty of people with vested interests and they are going to put you down at all costs. It has become less enjoying than you much desire.
Do feel free to disagree.
I think personal attacks should be avoided. Who knows what the future brings. There might or might not be the downturn just right ahead. All it requires is a major catastrophe such as the 911 incident. Nobody can guarantee anything.
My personal experience is the steady long term growth in property value over the last 30 years. Believe it or not, HDB cost 60+K in the 80s (30+K with some kind of re-location subsidy). Landed properties also cost not much above that then. It is a 500% appreciation in 30 years, and landed has appreciated more than 1000% in the same time frame.
Like you said, too many people have vested interest in this, including many of the current and ex policymakers in SG. It is unlikely that they will allow any significant drop. You just need to compare the harshness of CMs in China and SG to sense the different attitude.
At the big picture level for SG, there is also no strong rationale to allow a significant dip. It keeps people working for longer periods of time at their own choice, increases productivity, and reduces health-related problems and costs due to doing nothing. It also gives SG more funds to provide for important areas such as education.
Personally, I will just keep buying if I can afford it, but not sell. And I know many with the same attitude. Volatility is preferred by speculators, but stability is preferred by investors. The stability and steadiness in property value is increasingly being influenced more by investors and home buyers rather than speculators already weeded out by the various CMs. That is my projection and interpretation.
@kane probably still up trading US mkt lol at 3am
...beating around the bush, lacking substance due to lack of subject matter knowledge.... trying to sound philosophical and laying it thick with irony.
Exactly what I felt.
Is this a peak ? Only 3 answers, yes no and dun know. Pick your position and elaborate why. Instead of "if this if that".
More interesting to state a position and debate on it rather than sit on the fence and tell text-book theory of if aaa then bbb else ccc then ddd (either way, he becomes correct).... For that we can just read a text-book can already, don't have to read in the forum... :p
Exactly what I felt.
Is this a peak ? Only 3 answers, yes no and dun know. Pick your position and elaborate why. Instead of "if this if that".
If only life is that simple.
Who on earth really know the future behold? Who can say yes firmly and who can say no firmly.
A forum is not about debating who or what is right or wrong. Even the wise man never claim to be. It is about understanding and appreciating what others are thinking and knowing that people are different from us and hopefully able to learn something and live in harmony in face with diversity.
Obviously, we have failed as a nation in this aspect as much as we call ourselves first world. It seems so difficult to be graceful. Perhaps, this has been the result of the country pursuing economic growth at all costs at the expense of humanity. Sad!
Graceful?... you mean like a swan or a ballerina? ... or do you mean Gracious?
If only life is that simple.
Who on earth really know the future behold? Who can say yes firmly and who can say no firmly.
A forum is not about debating who or what is right or wrong. Even the wise man never claim to be. It is about understanding and appreciating what others are thinking and knowing that people are different from us and hopefully able to learn something and live in harmony in face with diversity.
Obviously, we have failed as a nation in this aspect as much as we call ourselves first world. It seems so difficult to be graceful. Perhaps, this has been the result of the country pursuing economic growth at all costs at the expense of humanity. Sad!
Graceful?... you mean like a swan or a ballerina? ... or do you mean Gracious?
It is a good start! At least you are picking up on some grammatical errors. Keep this spirit going!
phantom_opera
25-07-12, 10:57
50y mortgage:
If a borrower took out S$1 million under a 50-year mortgage at an interest rate of 1.7 percent, he will only pay around S$2,475 per month, compared with S$3,548 if it was a 30-year loan.
so about 1k less per month if interest around 2% .... ho say liao ... every developer will now partner with UOB to offer 50y mortgage
50y mortgage:
If a borrower took out S$1 million under a 50-year mortgage at an interest rate of 1.7 percent, he will only pay around S$2,475 per month, compared with S$3,548 if it was a 30-year loan.
so about 1k less per month if interest around 2% .... ho say liao ... every developer will now partner with UOB to offer 50y mortgage
And work for the bank! Till 80!
phantom_opera
25-07-12, 11:00
And work for the bank! Till 80!
But cash flow improves by 1k per month suddenly I can afford Trizon now BUY BUY BUY :scared-5: :scared-4: :p
Laugh a bit lah... why so sad?
It is a good start! At least you are picking up on some grammatical errors. Keep this spirit going!
Laugh a bit lah... why so sad?
Glad to sense the difference in you.
Sad with society but not with myself.
ikan bilis
25-07-12, 18:29
Ok,… now let’s look at the real estate winners….
Example,…
a parc centros 3bdr unit, 1141sqft, at S$1.05mil…
actual build up area could be 1000sqft (~15% non-useable space like balcony & aircon ledge, which do not take up any plot ratio)
http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Parc+Centros+in+Punggol+review%3A+this+condo+is+drawing+in+the+crowds/
http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Punggol+site+gets+13+bids/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
=> and here are our winners !!...
winner #1, govt: gls for parc centros at 350psf-ppr, so $350K out of $1.05mil of 1141sqft 3bdr purchase-price gone to govt’s pocket….
Winner #2, contractor: building cost about $350psf, but that needs lots of material and labour, so may be contractor make about $50psf or $50K from the 1141sqft 3bdr
Winner #3, developer: land price S$350psf, build price S$350psf, so may be they make about S$350K from the 1141sqft 3bdr (or 33% profit)
Winner #4, bank: 840K loan, 50yr, 1.7%.... bank making total $408K interest for the 50yrs… (haha,… I will not buy any banks’ shares,… but, anyway not much risks for the banks as they are using opm & govt need to bail them out if they are in trouble…)
Winner #5, govt, again : Property tax of 0.4% (let’s say 4% rental yield), so for the LH99 govt collects 95yr * 0.004 * $1.05mil ~= S$400K…. plus govt making other $$ like construction workers’ levy, coe, gst, bsd & ssd,…. Govt also could be printing lots of $$ and loan to banks and make some interest….
Winner #6, buyer: may be he could sell the unit at S$2mil in 10-15yr time...
There are other winners,… feel free to add on to the list….
All numbers are guesstimation only hor,…. Just for fun,… so please don’t flame me…. :rolleyes: ;)
phantom_opera
25-07-12, 20:15
Property developer, construction co, banks are in business. They take risk. If everything is ok, they are rewarded. If things turn ugly, property developers / construction cos could go bust easily. Banks can also collapse, just look at Spanish banks or Lehman Brothers.
High risk high gain, no risk no gain.
You write as if like there is no risk for them.
And any gain is nominal, you need to minus actual inflation to arrive at real gain
Allthepies
25-07-12, 20:24
Some "businesses" have zero risk and very high gain, people give or donate money to u willingly at regular interval :D :D :D Just manage ur account properly and within the law and u r set for life.
phantom_opera
25-07-12, 20:34
Some "businesses" have zero risk and very high gain, people give or donate money to u willingly at regular interval :D :D :D Just manage ur account properly and within the law and u r set for life.
MBS almost bankrupt post Lehman, QE1 saved it
Yesterday I saw an advertisement for a district 02 private apartment, leasehold, top 1970, 1270 sq ft, high floor, city view, asking price 880K. I called agent, asking what price can close. Agent said 850K, so I make appointment to view unit tomorrow. I was prepared to pay 820K although I think 850K is good value, under current market conditions.
This morning agent called, said unit only 850 sq ft. Ask me if I am still interested. I said no thanks. Cancel viewing appointment.
Am I a moron or what? Buy 40 years old leasehold apartment at around $1K per sq ft now can make money in the future?
phantom_opera
25-07-12, 20:40
it is risk free if you can bully people
France has been behind a push to give Europe's ESM bailout fund a banking licence as a way of tapping cheap ECB funding to take more aggressive action in the debt market crisis. The ECB has repeatedly rejected the idea, arguing it would be thinly disguised monetary financing of governments
ikan bilis
25-07-12, 20:44
Yesterday I saw an advertisement for a district 02 private apartment, leasehold, top 1970, 1270 sq ft, high floor, city view, asking price 880K. I called agent, asking what price can close. Agent said 850K, so I make appointment to view unit tomorrow. I was prepared to pay 820K although I think 850K is good value, under current market conditions.
This morning agent called, said unit only 850 sq ft. Ask me if I am still interested. I said no thanks. Cancel viewing appointment.
Am I a moron or what? Buy 40 years old leasehold apartment at around $1K per sq ft now can make money in the future?
bro... you very loaded ah... for 40yr old apartment bank can loan you for how many years ??... you must be paying with lots of ca$h, or all ca$h... wow !!.. :cool:
ikan bilis
25-07-12, 20:53
Property developer, construction co, banks are in business. They take risk. If everything is ok, they are rewarded. If things turn ugly, property developers / construction cos could go bust easily. Banks can also collapse, just look at Spanish banks or Lehman Brothers.
High risk high gain, no risk no gain.
You write as if like there is no risk for them.
And any gain is nominal, you need to minus actual inflation to arrive at real gain
heya.... bro,... i was trying to show you intrinsic value of that property may be at S$350psf... or $350K for that 1141sqft condo... actual build cost around S$350K but buyer need to pay total S$1.5mil including interest (alamak!!.. die-lah... lots of people will start bombarding me after me saying this... :D)
ok..ok... i failed to do that, and you gone for a big round... :ashamed1:
phantom_opera
25-07-12, 20:55
heya.... bro,... i was trying to show you intrinsic value of that property may be at S$350psf... or $350K for that 1141sqft condo... actual build cost around S$350K but buyer need to pay total S$1.5mil including interest (alamak!!.. die-lah... lots of people will start bombarding me after me saying this... :D)
ok..ok... i failed to do that, and you gone for a big round... :ashamed1:
Well if interest rate is below inflation for the loan period, in reality, in real term you are paying much less ... but who loses? ... it is the group that lends to the bank
And work for the bank! Till 80!
If u get a free hold for investment, the rental will more than cover the mortgage. U will have surplus and at the same time, the tenant is paying for your unit. Time value of money. Remember 20 or even 10 years ago, you had 100k. It was a lot. Today it is simply deflated. Over the years, your money become less and less because of inflation. After 50 year, even if you (or your kid) sell it at original purchased price, you would still have pocketed a cool 1 mil - paid by your tenant.
heya.... bro,... i was trying to show you intrinsic value of that property may be at S$350psf... or $350K for that 1141sqft condo... actual build cost around S$350K but buyer need to pay total S$1.5mil including interest (alamak!!.. die-lah... lots of people will start bombarding me after me saying this... :D)
ok..ok... i failed to do that, and you gone for a big round... :ashamed1:
Bid price already exceeds 350psf big time. Plus construction, marketing, breakeven easily 700 psf. No?
:D
And work for the bank! Till 80!
Thats where many buyers are wrong....
property is about CASH FLOW...
NEVER about paying off ALL the loans fully...
If after 50 years your FH property worth 300% more while the one who slog to be prudent and quickly pay off his LH property.... maybe only 50% higher due to lease decay...
So so wins?
Ultimately someone who takes a 50 years loan is playing with cash flow...
If his income increases he will upgrade his condo, buy another one, lump sum down payment etc....
I doubt there will be many who will stick with a property loan for 50 years...
Eg: a 29 years old guy take a 50 years loan... when he reaches 39 he can afford a freehold property so he sell his current place and take another 35 years loan...
then when he reaches 43 he refinance at a cheaper interest rate.... 30 years loan...
When he reaches 50 he sell his current place and downgrade to a smaller flat and start to think of retirement...
WHERE GOT 50 years loan????
phantom_opera
26-07-12, 09:25
So 50y loan is good for cashflow, 100y loan lagi best :p
@30yrs Spottiswoode Park right?
So 50y loan is good for cashflow, 100y loan lagi best :p
If got 100 yr loan, I take man. Only problem, bank look at your age. So as you get older, no of yr loan gets less and not in your favour.
Over a long period of time, everything inflates. Just compare10 yrs ago, then 20, then 40 and you will find prices always goes up. The only thing i saw coming down is IT price. haha
The unspoken strategy in property investing...
Its all about CASH FLOW...
Always max out the loan amount and loan tenure...
keep your money, and pay in lump sum when you feel richer
The unspoken strategy in property investing...
Its all about CASH FLOW...
Always max out the loan amount and loan tenure...
keep your money, and pay in lump sum when you feel richer
yeah, why government banned interest only mortgages?
if interest only mortgages banned, why dont banks banks introduce 999 year loans for FH and 999 condos?
for 99yr properties, ya maximum only 99.
i bet FH, and 999yr condo prices would shoot up.
phantom_opera
26-07-12, 14:28
NYC property price is little changed after 2008 and moving up slowly now
2008年，华尔街发生金融危机，美国出现房贷危机，美国的房屋市场会出现崩溃，但出乎意料，美国的纽约房地产市场实际上下跌幅度非常小，和洛杉矶的27%相比数字小很多。到今年的这个时候，房地产在纽约价格已经逐步的趋于稳定，而且也开始出现往上走的趋势。
yeah, why government banned interest only mortgages?
if interest only mortgages banned, why dont banks banks introduce 999 year loans for FH and 999 condos?
for 99yr properties, ya maximum only 99.
i bet FH, and 999yr condo prices would shoot up.
That is a bit too extreme...
There is no residual value in the property left for the banks...
so 50 years for 99 years property is still safe...
And you cant extend the loan longer than the life span of the borrower, or else who is going to pay the loan?
NYC property price is little changed after 2008 and moving up slowly now
2008年，华尔街发生金融危机，美国出现房贷危机，美国的房屋市场会出现崩溃，但出乎意料，美国的纽约房地产市场实际上下跌幅度非常小，和洛杉矶的27%相比数字小很多。到今年的这个时候，房地产在纽约价格已经逐步的趋于稳定，而且也开始出现往上走的趋势。
yes, my girl just spent two months in NY, and could not find a good buy or fire sale. The prices hardly come down.
That is a bit too extreme...
There is no residual value in the property left for the banks...
so 50 years for 99 years property is still safe...
And you cant extend the loan longer than the life span of the borrower, or else who is going to pay the loan?
japan has the 2-generation mortgage loans where the child has to take over the debt. :doh:
phantom_opera
26-07-12, 17:48
yes, my girl just spent two months in NY, and could not find a good buy or fire sale. The prices hardly come down.
and many big cos take advantages of super low rate in the US:
IBM on Wednesday sold $1bn in 10-year debt with a coupon of 1.875 per cent, the lowest interest rate for bonds of that maturity sold in the US, according to Dealogic, the data tracker. The sale beat the previous record low of 2 per cent in 10-year notes set by 3M in June.
phantom_opera
26-07-12, 18:11
It seems like every time people talk about dreaded peak of 1997 ... is like sure lose when buy in 1997, reality is it depends, the following is an EC:
#05-XX 969sqft
1997-04-16 425psf
2012-05-04 908psf
profit $468,027
It seems like every time people talk about dreaded peak of 1997 ... is like sure lose when buy in 1997, reality is it depends, the following is an EC:
#05-XX 969sqft
1997-04-16 425psf
2012-05-04 908psf
profit $468,027
That's cos the EC is now converted to private condo status Liao?
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