View Full Version : Singapore property, as an investment, is DEAD
phantom_opera
26-08-12, 19:48
What do u think? After so many CMs, it looks to me the capital appreciation potential in the medium term (5-10y) for Singapore properties, is only as good as bond, that means nothing exciting, a yield of 4%, just enough to hedge inflation, prices stay flat or up n down 1-2% per year
Would it be better just buy NTUC Income 3.65% 15y corp bond? 15X oversubscribed ...:scared-4:
It will not crash, Ah B will be disappointed, but nothing exciting ... forum becomes more like a place to TCSS (in Hokkien ''pak bang'' .. beat mosquitoes)
:sleep:
ikan bilis
26-08-12, 20:15
i like your thread title.... :cheers4:
are u baiting 50% dicount guy to come into this tread or have you cross over to the dark side :cheers1:
Not dead. Still alive and kicking after the CMs. ODR sold out in two days. Prices continue to rise after the CMs, despite the CMs, so no opportunity for boat missers like myself to buy cheap. Property bargain hunting excitement all gone now, so boring, so I too came here to tcss. I rather be ridiculous, crazy or moronic, than boring.
Now tcss thrills also declining. Few have exciting ideas to share. Many talk a lot but no substance, some just one liner, waste time reading nonsense.
So what should newbie like us do? Sit & watch the mosquitoes 飞来飞去 :confused:
are u baiting 50% dicount guy to come into this tread or have you cross over to the dark side :cheers1:
hearsay someone fainted in ODR after shouting no 50% drop no buy, muz be recuperating over the weekends
no should help clap clap kill them
with all the CMs enacted.. cannot play any more...
of course buy for own stay is a different story.
... prices stay flat or up n down 1-2% per year
:sleep:
For prices to stay flat or up n down 1-2% per year means that demand must meet supply almost perfectly. This is quite difficult in view of the many variables involved in property pricing.
buy 500k 1 bedder...dp 100k ltv 80%
rent out AVERAGE at $1500pm....for 30 years will pay ur installment....after 30 yrs assume price still at $500k and your still alive...:D....sell at $500k...
so 100k become 500k...thats about 5.5% compounded...:cheers1:
risks...are no tenant/your apt kena lightning and burn...:scared-1:/your wife divorce you and take your apt:scared-1:/your children make you sign over to them:scared-1:/you go casino loose money need to sell your apt:scared-1:
if your NOT in above risk category should be safe....:D
I think capital gain is slim. But if you have say a 1 m property, downpayment - 20%. 200k. Stamp duty = 25k. So total down = 230k
Say interest at 1.5% = 12k
Monthly maintenance = 3k
Property tax = 2.5k
Agent fee= 1.5k
Total = 19k
Monthly rent say 3k
Yearly rent = 36k
Net income per year = 17k
So over the last few years when interest rate was low, those who rented out actually made quite a fair bit of money on top of the capital gain.
So I expect interest rate to hold at least till 2014, so over 2 years, you would have made additional 34k.
I really feel market will be flat +/- 5%. So i feel it wil be range bound.
Investors are going overseas. There are still bright spots though.
I think capital gain is slim. But if you have say a 1 m property, downpayment - 20%. 200k. Stamp duty = 25k. So total down = 230k
Say interest at 1.5% = 12k
Monthly maintenance = 3k
Property tax = 2.5k
Agent fee= 1.5k
Total = 19k
Monthly rent say 3k
Yearly rent = 36k
Net income per year = 17k
So over the last few years when interest rate was low, those who rented out actually made quite a fair bit of money on top of the capital gain.
So I expect interest rate to hold at least till 2014, so over 2 years, you would have made additional 34k.
I really feel market will be flat +/- 5%. So i feel it wil be range bound.
but seriously will there be tenants forever and ever with so many apts/hdbs being built..thats a worry...:cool:
people come people go. as long as the value of Singapore as a proposition doesn't diminish. there will be people who will replace those who made it and return to homeland.
people come people go. as long as the value of Singapore as a proposition doesn't diminish. there will be people who will replace those who made it and return to homeland.
ya i suppose so...i never ever heard anybody buy apt as investment to rent out and cannot find tenant....dont think such thing ever happened in singapore before...:cool:
ya i suppose so...i never ever heard anybody buy apt as investment to rent out and cannot find tenant....dont think such thing ever happened in singapore before...:cool:
A lot of times, if you worry too much, you cannot even move. Worst come to worst, rent out cheap lah... I remember, during crisis, I rented out my 1,500 sq ft anchorage at 1.8k. Today, rental is >4k. Rent at market rate.
A lot of times, if you worry too much, you cannot even move. Worst come to worst, rent out cheap lah... I remember, during crisis, I rented out my 1,500 sq ft anchorage at 1.8k. Today, rental is >4k. Rent at market rate.
100% agree with you...:cheers5:....imp thing is get an apt that is EASILY rentable...near mrt/good sch...etc etc
100% agree with you...:cheers5:....imp thing is get an apt that is EASILY rentable...near mrt/good sch...etc etc
Only problem I have today is finding freehold condo. search and search... Give up... Haha
ya i suppose so...i never ever heard anybody buy apt as investment to rent out and cannot find tenant....dont think such thing ever happened in singapore before...:cool:
Is the occupancy rate that high for residential all these years?
I recalled an exodus of expats during the SARs and Post Lehmen Bros Crisis. I have heard of apartments begging for tenants even at subdued rental. Those who signed 2-year lease had a break as crisis was less than a year.
Presently, there are still many CCR properties advertising for rental.
Only problem I have today is finding freehold condo. search and search... Give up... Haha
No wonder One Dusun and Katong Regency snapped up like nobody's business...:banghead:
No wonder One Dusun and Katong Regency snapped up like nobody's business...:banghead:
Actually the last one I bot was a 2000 sq ft unit in D5 just last year. Still searching for free hold. If find good one, will buy and let go my 99 lh. Replacement. I feel FH getting less and less. Only way is by current land bank by developer which is almost zero or enbloc... So looking at resale...
There are fh developments around. It is just your budget and location.
phantom_opera
26-08-12, 22:45
.... I am turning pessimistic also whether 1 million HDB will be the norm by 2020 as garmen might not want this to happen by imposing another CM soon
however, a dead property market may not be a bad thing, at least upgraders will be happy that price does not suddenly go beyond affordability. On the other hand, developer must now squeeze more creative juice like 2br SOHO, more theme-based attractions (e.g. recent Sports theme from Parc Olympia) to be able to sell to genuine home buyers rather than speculators
over the next few years, developers must seriously think of how they can survive, especially if biz is largely dependent on SG residential market with speculators, foreigners and flippers totally absent
FEO might give baby discount for couples who have babies ... same like BTO :p
There are fh developments around. It is just your budget and location.
I look at potential gains and rental yield. I also have a few districts I have eye on. So to a certain extend, limited choice.
I look at potential gains and rental yield. I also have a few districts I have eye on. So to a certain extend, limited choice.
Just wondering if your decision to purchase also include future Enbloc Potential, possibility of renewed GPR of zone under new Masterplan. It was announced before that zones within 400m of MRT stations be maximised for convenience and the only way is to build higher ;)
So pte owners near MRT should be cheering :cheers4: if sold to developers. But then again, was told that URA usually increase plot ratio of 99LH and their own GLS. Is this true?
buy 500k 1 bedder...dp 100k ltv 80%
rent out AVERAGE at $1500pm....for 30 years will pay ur installment....after 30 yrs assume price still at $500k and your still alive...:D....sell at $500k...
so 100k become 500k...thats about 5.5% compounded...:cheers1:
risks...are no tenant/your apt kena lightning and burn...:scared-1:/your wife divorce you and take your apt:scared-1:/your children make you sign over to them:scared-1:/you go casino loose money need to sell your apt:scared-1:
if your NOT in above risk category should be safe....:D
that's a good plan:cheers2:
Price hikes happen in the last few years especially with the annoucement of new mrt lines. Speculation of new ERL has already lifted prices of properties along the lines. PM said last night that they will invest more in the new downtown of Marina (D1). Look at the new downtown line that is due to open in 2013. Knowledge of Concept Plan 2013 in advance will help to plan investment strategy. Around Bidadari may be a good area for investment.
I look at potential gains and rental yield. I also have a few districts I have eye on. So to a certain extend, limited choice.
phantom_opera
27-08-12, 09:58
M3 is stagnant
2012
Jan 455,057.0
Feb 453,410.0
Mar 462,461.7
Apr 458,498.9
May 460,546.2
Jun P 460,663.7
M3 is stagnant
What's the implication?
Why PO turned pessimistic? Just sold?
Why PO turned pessimistic? Just sold?
not pessimistic...just NEUTRAL...i.e proerty market NO UP NO DOWN testing his patience...so need to remove the mask and take closer look at bonds/stocks...LOOK at SAKARI.....:doh:...FN....APB....:doh:....
Regulators
27-08-12, 15:03
I heard in indonesia the luxury gds tax is 16%, so rich indons don't mind paying 10% absd to buy a pty in singapore as it is still cheaper. This was what an indon singapore pty agent cum investor told me.
I heard in indonesia the luxury gds tax is 16%, so rich indons don't mind paying 10% absd to buy a pty in singapore as it is still cheaper. This was what an indon singapore pty agent cum investor told me.
That's not all, in fact there are some developments absorbing 10% absd like thomson grand for foreigners. they even advertise in foreign magazines when I was flying an Indon airline lol...
phantom_opera
30-08-12, 11:45
The Federal Reserve has done a "masterful" job of keeping global markets relatively quiet, which for investors means stocks and bonds are unlikely to change much in the coming months, Bill Gross, Pimco's co-chief investment officer, told CNBC Wednesday.
Bill Gross
"What the Fed (learn more) has done, rather masterfully, in terms of asset markets, is to suppress volatility," Gross said on "Squawk on the Street."
"Because of that," he added, "we have volatility as reflected on the VIX (INDEX:vix) and volatility as reflected by measures in the bond market where things simply don't change much."
Although stocks, long-term bond prices and gold are all up for the year, Gross said, prices may not move much more even if the Fed decides to do a third round of quantitative easing, as many are expecting.
Gross expects the 10-year Treasury (U.S.:us10yt=xx) to end the year yielding 1.65 percent, about where it is now.
"That sounds rather boring and non-committal," Gross said, "but that's basically what the Fed wants. They want things to stay exactly where they are."
This new normal of low volatility also underpins Gross's recent pronouncement that the "cult of equities" is dead. (Read more below the video.)
(More From Bill Gross: Stocks Will Live, but 'Worship' of Them Is Dead.)
Big Ben and Your Money
Will another round of quantitative easing come out of Jackson Hole? Bill Gross, Pimco co-CIO, weighs in on Bernanke's next move and the best way to play the Treasury market.
"What we're talking about in terms of the 'cult of equity' or the 'cult of bonds' is basically that income or dividends will be the dominant emphasis going forward in terms of total returns," he said. "Prices in terms of double-digit price movements for stocks and those double-digit movements from long bonds are a thing of the past."
Investors will have to get comfortable with a 3 to 3.5 percent dividend yield in global large-cap stocks and a 3 percent yield from the bond market.
"Yes, low volatility is boring," Gross said. "Perhaps that's the mode going forward but investors should get used to it."
phantom_opera
30-08-12, 23:08
In Singapore, HDB borrows for free, almost
- S$450 million 5-year Fixed Rate Notes issue with a coupon of 1.11% per annum payable semi-annually in arrear. The Notes were issued on 30 August 2012 and will mature on 30 August 2017.
SGD yields are typically low.
Allthepies
30-08-12, 23:30
3.5% looks pathetic, tat wat CPF special acc gives :doh: :doh:
No wonder everybody buy house......
anyone here starting to discuss fixed rate loan conversion with the bank yet?
My China neighbour just told me that her 3 friends, all from China, just bot one each condo in Bt Timah for $3.6m each
phantom_opera
31-08-12, 09:10
My China neighbour just told me that her 3 friends, all from China, just bot one each condo in Bt Timah for $3.6m each
compared to CMs in China, Singapore is seen as less restrictive as long as you don't mind the 10% ABSD :rolleyes: With China stock market in a bad shape, hot money has no where to go, nowadays arts, painting, rare collection and even WALNUT is hot in China lol
still, boring years a head
My China neighbour just told me that her 3 friends, all from China, just bot one each condo in Bt Timah for $3.6m each
wow, do they need to take mortgage or all cash deal?
phantom_opera
05-09-12, 11:41
Stock market is rolling over to be range bound again, QE3 cannot save it ... the most important hint about economy comes from Fedex
But property will stay flat simply because low rate will be extended to 2016 now
5y/10y bond SGS / corp bond yield are now further depressed :doh:
10y SGS 1.33%
Gold has probably fully priced in QE3
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/09/Gold.png
phantom_opera
05-09-12, 14:35
StarHub announced that it has priced its S$220m 10-year bond at 3.08% :banghead:
Now even 10y corp bond is 3% .... NTUC Income 3.65% 15y bond looks attractive now :D
My China neighbour just told me that her 3 friends, all from China, just bot one each condo in Bt Timah for $3.6m each
wah kao!! :eek::scared-3:
$3.6m really peanut to them..
btw, they got daughters who is still single & available ?
:D
What do u think? After so many CMs, it looks to me the capital appreciation potential in the medium term (5-10y) for Singapore properties, is only as good as bond, that means nothing exciting, a yield of 4%, just enough to hedge inflation, prices stay flat or up n down 1-2% per year
Would it be better just buy NTUC Income 3.65% 15y corp bond? 15X oversubscribed ...:scared-4:
It will not crash, Ah B will be disappointed, but nothing exciting ... forum becomes more like a place to TCSS (in Hokkien ''pak bang'' .. beat mosquitoes)
:sleep:
Basically already peaked.. not much growth.... overseas might be more interesting now.
phantom_opera
05-09-12, 15:42
Basically already peaked.. not much growth.... overseas might be more interesting now.
Ah Kong will tighten M3 / immigration growth to stop the bubble ...
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