At which stage is sg property bubble?

[phantom_opera]

New poll, since situation has changed

[CondoInterested]

Who voted after peeping at the result first?

Well I didn't and surprises to see it's 100%.

Don't want to sell HDB and no bullet how to buy & buy?

[samuelk]

With QE3 and the revise 60 LH been pitch, is it viable to start looking at 999 or Freehold condos. Which will hold its value better.?

[latour]

Hold on to HDB and Freehold PC tight tight.

[phantom_opera]

I begin to worry ... Sentiment is too bullish compared to last poll

[CondoInterested]

Did you read today paper? HK scolding US going to crash HK property market with QE3 infinity.

[phantom_opera]

Kenobi wan will not act as long as new sales not hitting record Psf relative to resales in same area

the last poll more than 25pc voters are bearish, what a sudden change

[Laguna]

Did you read today paper? HK scolding US going to crash HK property market with QE3 infinity.

which paper?
link?

[phantom_opera]

http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/f_1m.yzIKnPEhO5n.SSCWw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0yNTY7cT04NTt3PTUxMg--/http://globalfinance.zenfs.com/images/HK_AFTP_MINGPAO/_15eb003__new_09_2012_original.jpg

買家無懼政府出招繼續入市，昨晚開售的馬鞍山新盤迎海，估計全晚售近300伙，佔可售單位近九成，是今年6月房協深水埗喜雅後，首天沽售比例最高的大型新盤

http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/RDS7CPUQZhDziBNJVAdIMw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0zNDE7cT04NTt3PTUxMg--/http://globalfinance.zenfs.com/images/HK_AFTP_MINGPAO/_15eb005__new_09_2012_original.jpg

買家張小姐以500餘萬元購入一個600餘方呎兩房單位作自住，並會承造7成按揭；她認為，買樓「最緊要是自己計到數，政府是否出招，對自己沒有影響。」

5 million+ HKD (about 850k SGD) for 600sqft 2br, 1400+psf

This project is at east of NT (New Teritorry)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/eb/Ma_Liu_Shui_Panorama_1.JPG/1200px-Ma_Liu_Shui_Panorama_1.JPG

[CondoInterested]

Bro laguna

Paisei leh, it was a hard copy paper. I trying to search, but cannot find. But really come across the article. Warning QE3 may crash HK property market.

I thought was today, but flip through ST and TODAY cannot find.

Flipped yesterday TODAY, only the QE3 guy cock and bull story.

[kane]

Nice view but a far out place i think.

[East Lover]

Bro laguna

Paisei leh, it was a hard copy paper. I trying to search, but cannot find. But really come across the article. Warning QE3 may crash HK property market.

I thought was today, but flip through ST and TODAY cannot find.

Flipped yesterday TODAY, only the QE3 guy cock and bull story.
Is this One??
汇丰：美联储推QE3为香港高房价火上加油
就美国推出新一轮的量宽QE3，汇丰亚太区业务策略及经济顾问梁兆基今日表示，此举将制造更多流动资金，因为美联储每月买400亿美元按揭抵押债券的额度，相等于美国按揭抵押债券市场规模的一成。梁兆基指出，由此新增的流动性资本不会留在美国本土，反而会再次流入亚洲乃致香港市场，将令香港炽热的楼市火上加油。

[HP65]

Bro laguna

Paisei leh, it was a hard copy paper. I trying to search, but cannot find. But really come across the article. Warning QE3 may crash HK property market.

I thought was today, but flip through ST and TODAY cannot find.

Flipped yesterday TODAY, only the QE3 guy cock and bull story.

From CNA...

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1226023/1/.html

[hyenergix]

It sort of went out of steam in Q2 this year, but the anticipation and arrival of QE3 in Q3 gave a new breathe of life into the property bubble. Probably another 5% increase by mid of next year if there is no fresh CM for 2/3 bedders. It could be higher if you take into account corner cuttings by developers on material quality.

[CondoInterested]

Is this One??
汇丰:美联储推QE3为香港高房价火上加油
就美国推出新一轮的量宽QE3,汇丰亚太区业务策略及经济顾问梁兆基今日表示,此举将制造更多流动资金,因为美联储每月买400亿美元按揭抵押债券的额度,相等于美国按揭抵押债券市场规模的一成。梁兆基指出,由此新增的流动性资本不会留在美国本土,反而会再次流入亚洲乃致香港市场,将令香港炽热的楼市火上加油。Similar content but English Version.

Didn't recall read CNA.

Yalor, fire still add oil. Beside HK, China and SG will kanna also. Wondering why people with the cash not go speculate US property until it crash again.

[blackapple]

Similar content but English Version.

Didn't recall read CNA.

Yalor, fire still add oil. Beside HK, China and SG will kanna also. Wondering why people with the cash not go speculate US property until it crash again.

That is what they want to achieve. After stabilise the housing, they want to increase housing price now..

[Laguna]

Bro laguna

Paisei leh, it was a hard copy paper. I trying to search, but cannot find. But really come across the article. Warning QE3 may crash HK property market.

I thought was today, but flip through ST and TODAY cannot find.

Flipped yesterday TODAY, only the QE3 guy cock and bull story.

your efforts are deeply appreciated.....

And also thanks everyone here.....

[Mr.Keh]

Who voted after peeping at the result first?

Well I didn't and surprises to see it's 100%.

Don't want to sell HDB and no bullet how to buy & buy?

I didn't peep at the results before voting for 1. QE will cause property prices to rise.

I am not surprised that many in this forum share the same view.

[proper-t]

CNA excerpt...



Title:Hong Kong warns of property bubble from Fed plan By:Date:14 September 2012 1738 hrs (SST) URL:http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1226023/1/.html

HONG KONG: Hong Kong's Monetary Authority warned Friday that the loosening of monetary policy in the United States could lead to overheating in the territory's already hot property sector.

HKMA Chief Executive Norman Chan said the latest US stimulus plan announced Thursday could increase the risk of a property market bubble forming in the southern Chinese city.

He said the de facto central bank would take measures to cool local asset markets if necessary, and had already required banks to tighten lending requirements for people with multiple mortgages.

"We expect that the period of exceptionally low interest rates and abundant global liquidity will stay with us longer and the risk of overheating in the property market in Hong Kong will increase," Chan told reporters.

"HKMA is concerned that borrowers with multiple mortgages loans will pose high risk to the banks."

Chan's comments came after the US Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee announced a new, open-ended US$40 billion-a-month bond-buying programme to stimulate growth and employment in the world's biggest economy.

The third round of so-called quantitative easing, or "QE3", will take the US central bank's total monthly purchases to US$85 billion a month.

Hong Kong's currency peg to the US dollar means monetary policy in the United States flows directly into the local economy.

The Asian financial centre has some of the highest property prices in the world, driven by limited supply and speculation from wealthy mainland Chinese investors.

Hundreds of thousands of working people are forced to live in tiny, windowless "cubicle" apartments because they can't afford to rent decent accommodation or buy their own homes.

The government has promised to alleviate the situation with measures including boosting public housing and releasing more land for development, but so far the policies have made little difference to housing affordability.

Chan said there was no prospect of the peg being dropped, despite calls earlier this year from the former head of the HKMA, Joseph Lam, for a review of the government's monetary options.

- AFP/ck

[speculator]

Hong Kong implement Cooling measure immediately after QE3 announcement. MND is still sleeping.

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/money/story/hk-curbs-home-loans-prevent-bubble-after-fed-stimulus-20120914-0

HK curbs home loans to prevent bubble after Fed stimulus
*
Published on Sep 14, 2012

Hong Kong's Monetary Authority (HKMA) warned on Friday that the loosening of monetary policy in the United States (US) could lead to overheating in the territory's already hot property sector. -- PHOTO: REUTERS

HONG KONG (REUTERS) - Hong Kong's de facto central bank has ordered banks to curb home loans to borrowers with more than one mortgage to prevent the city being flooded with hot money after the United States (US) announced an aggressive new stimulus plan to spur growth.

The former British territory has among the most expensive residential property prices in the world, driven higher in recent years by voracious demand from rich buyers from mainland China.

But the runaway real estate market has created festering social and political problems, and forced the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) into uncharacteristic action in a territory known for its open economy.

In another step taken on Friday, the HKMA said it would restrict the maximum length of a mortgage to 30 years. Some banks had been offering home loans of up to 40 years.

TO READ THE FULL STORY...

[speculator]

The full story here

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE88D0IX20120914

[phantom_opera]

not enough seats in showflat for eager buyers in ECO, the ultimate sign of bubble??

GLS breaking record at Prince Charles ....

my target of OCR near MRT at 1400psf is almost there :scared-1:

please continue to vote !!!

i think we are just about to reach "Greed" level :p

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/images/bubble-lifecycle.gif

[phantom_opera]

hk property prime down, OCR up ...:confused:

representing txns 2012/09/10 to 2012/09/16

[Centa-City Leading Sub-index]

　 This Week Previous Week Previous Month
HK 113.26 -3.37 % -3.47 %
KLN 107.89 -0.61 % +1.55 %
NT (East) 106.17 +1.8 % +4.51%

Note New Territory East up by 4.5% month on month

[carbuncle]

what bubble??? go n speak to Ms Teh HL

[phantom_opera]

what bubble??? go n speak to Ms Teh HL

who is Teh HL?

[carbuncle]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/reporter/teh-hooi-ling-0

[marktkt22]

Love tis, reversion to the mean




not enough seats in showflat for eager buyers in ECO, the ultimate sign of bubble??

GLS breaking record at Prince Charles ....

my target of OCR near MRT at 1400psf is almost there :scared-1:

please continue to vote !!!

i think we are just about to reach "Greed" level :p

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/images/bubble-lifecycle.gif

[phantom_opera]

wow this looks like in final stage of bubble

http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/X0GhBvEdbpLmOvJ8u4gVWw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://media.zenfs.com/zh-Hant-HK/blogs/tokuhon/20120925_tokuhon1.jpg

[jwong71]

wow this looks like in final stage of bubble

http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/X0GhBvEdbpLmOvJ8u4gVWw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://media.zenfs.com/zh-Hant-HK/blogs/tokuhon/20120925_tokuhon1.jpg

wu ya bo.. sakali it continue cheong through the roof

[Arcachon]

By Gerald Tay (guest contributor)
Yes, it’s Operation Screw all over again. They never learn from the past do they? The same mistakes are repeating all over again. The geniuses at the Federal Reserve have concocted a bold new plan to revive the U.S. economy – print a bunch of money, loan it to Americans at super low interest rates so they can speculate on rising real estate prices, extract the appreciated equity and spend it on consumer goods.
The last time the Fed tried to create a housing bubble to stimulate the economy, it ended in a global disaster. Throughout history, governments have destroyed economies by destroying currencies. Only this time it will be a major currency crisis in the making, with a huge sovereign debt crisis already underway, and more tears and misery globally.
Peter Schiff, one of the few economists who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis and worldwide best-selling author of How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes says, “This is a date that will indeed live in infamy, because this is the date that the Federal Reserve went all in on Quantitative Easing (QE). Rather than reviving the economy, the Fed has just sealed its fate and has driven the final nail in the coffin of the U.S. dollar and with it, the entire U.S. economy.”
Peter points out that in actuality, this decision from the Federal Reserve, their great “solution” to USA economic woes, is to… Inflate another housing bubble! Because that worked so well the last time… The Fed is going to buy $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities every month in an attempt to bring down mortgage interest rates, because they want to “spur the housing market”. Why?
The Wealth Effect and Rising (Inflated) Property Prices in Singapore
Governments around the world, including Singapore, know rising property prices can be one of the most useful political tools to entice happy voters. When property prices go up, home owners feel ‘wealthier’ and will therefore spend more money (mostly on things they don’t need). Singapore’s property prices have appreciated tremendously since 2009 from private homes to HDBs, due to a combination of QE1, QE2 and China’s Trillion Dollar Stimulus Program.
Because of this ‘illusionary’ wealth created in many homes, many went out on a spending spree, upgrading their Toyotas to BMWs (BMW beats Toyota sales for the first time), upgrading from HDB to private homes (with an increasing proportion of local buyers accounting for private transactions), and even to willingly fork out $1 million for a HDB flat.
However, there is a fatal flaw here. These people are in fact spending money they have not earned and are borrowing at deceptively low interest rates. Consumers are taking on too much debt and wrecking their personal balance sheets.
The governments believe that if they can get home prices to rise, then people will realise they can make money buying houses, and more people will buy houses because they are going up in price, which will encourage more land sales, more property taxes, more taxes through more consumer spending, more happy voters to secure their political seats, and of course rich government coffers.
What will QE Do to Ordinary Singaporean Folks?
Unsurprisingly, gold, silver, oil, commodities and agriculture is going to go up. In other words, inflation will likely be higher than what it already is today. If you are an employee working for a fixed salary, you’re screwed. If you’re hoping to retire with your CPF money, you’re screwed. If you are a saver, you are screwed. If you own bonds, you are screwed. If you’ve a savings account, you’re screwed. And of course, if you own Dollars, you’re screwed.
What will QE Do to the Singapore Property Market?
This ridiculous display of incessant money printing will spell higher inflation for our property market. Singapore is one of the destinations people look to as a safe haven. Property prices will continue to climb, more land sales will be expected from the government and property developers will take advantage of this influx of hot funds to sell over-inflated properties to ignorant buyers. Of course, it is too early to ascertain the impact QE3 may have (if any) on the Singapore property market. Last December’s Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) measure has so far been effective in curbing asset inflation in the property market sector .
A Bigger Property Bubble?
No government wants a massive asset bubble bursting in their own backyard. It certainly does not win political favours with voters. Governments only want more consumer spending, higher GDP growth for foreign investments and more job creation. In other words, the more debt consumers borrow, the more the economy will grow. Credit is the lifeblood of any economy. The government does not want to see you in a financial crisis, They only want you to borrow more on low interest rates and take on more debt. However, things often go the other way like during the 2008 financial crisis, the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the many other crises that have been around throughout history.
The Singapore government could well introduce new measures or tweak existing ones to prevent a bubble from forming. But they are also trying to toe a fine line, being mindful of the fact that when you tighten too much you never know how it will unravel.
So Will Singapore Property Prices Remain Resilient?
I do not know about you but my investments certainly never rely on ‘experts’ who keep talking about how resilient our property market is. These experts seem to do better selling snake’s oil than trying to ‘fortune tell’ the market’s direction.
In December 2007, a well-known real estate analyst wrote in the Straits Times, “Although sentiment in the residential sector has been hit by concerns over the US sub-prime market, the office sector is expected to remain resilient. Investment sentiment is expected to remain positive in 2008, given continued economic growth.”
In January of 2008, a very well-known CEO of a large property agency said, “Prices of residential property in the outer regions are still lagging behind the previous peak recorded in 1996.” He said there is more room for growth for private homes in the Outside Central Region and forecasted that the private residential property sector for 2008 will continue to perform well. “Thus, the price index for 2008 is predicted to grow in the region of 15 to 18 per cent,” he added. We all know what came next.
Risks to the Singapore Property Market
Like it or not, being a highly dependent export economy, no matter what property measures are introduced, our inflated property prices will always be shocked by global events. Risks to the global economy are rife: a potential global slowdown, the risk of spill-over from Europe’s sovereign crisis, the looming raft of tax increases and spending cuts set to kick in at end of the year unless US congress acts, potential wars in Iran, China and Japan, and of course any dreaded black swan events that may happen. All could shock the economy and send it back into a recession even worse than the 2008 financial crisis.
What Does This Mean To You As An Investor?
Smart investors always buy properties on immediate cash flow that generates returns higher than current inflation rates. Amateurs will ‘try’ the market, hoping and waiting for capital gains to happen. With QE3 and even with the four years Seller Stamp Duty, there will still be many foolish investors buying on hope of capital appreciation.
Low interest rates make me rich because I buy an asset, borrow for 30 years, rent by the month and put cash flow into my pockets. Unfortunately, low interest rates make most people poor because they borrow and spend ‘future money’ they do not have, and hope their ‘asset’ makes them money through capital appreciation.
Avoid buying new sales or properties that do not generate cash flow immediately. This is your only defence against the many uncertainties plaguing the global economy today. The property market is too volatile to speculate on capital gains.
By guest contributor Gerald Tay, CEO and Chief Trainer at CREi Academy Group. Posted courtesy of www.Propwise.sg, a Singapore property blog dedicated to helping you understand the real estate market and make better decisions. Click here to get your free Property Beginner’s and Buyer’s Guide.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/qe-3-operation-screw-singapore-property-market-100658232.html