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http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/top-the-news/story/fewer-people-investing-residential-units-20121024
Fewer people investing in residential units
Proportion of investors among homebuyers drops significantly
Published on Oct 24, 2012
By Rachel Chang
THE proportion of investors looking to profit from the residential property market has fallen significantly among homebuyers in recent years, according to latest figures from Credit Bureau Singapore.
After several rounds of cooling measures, the percentage of those taking out new home loans who already have existing mortgages has fallen from 38per cent in 2010 to 33.5per cent last year.
And for the first eight months of this year, it has dropped further, to 31.8per cent.
With more cooling measures introduced earlier this month, analysts foresee the full 12-month figure for this year to be even lower.
But despite the fall in the proportion of homebuyers who are investing in a second property or more, they still account for a sizeable proportion of the market, numbering almost one in three.
This investor group took out 2,037 mortgages for the first eight months of this year. Last year, the annual figure was 2,142 loans.
This, said analysts, may partly have accounted for the latest move to cap the tenures of home loans.
The latest curbs include capping the length of home loans at 35 years. The new rules also require a buyer who wants to take a loan past 30 years, or which extends beyond the retirement age of 65, to stump up a higher downpayment of 40per cent for the first loan and 60per cent for the second or subsequent loan.
These measures will further lower the proportion of investors among new homebuyers, said R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng.
But it would be "at an incremental pace as the aspirations for private housing among HDB owners is still very intense, and the ongoing low interest rates will still encourage home buying," he said.
The government measure that has brought the proportion of investors down most effectively thus far is the January 2011 round of restrictions, said analysts like Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong.
At the time, speculative activity was "decimated", he said.
The January 2011 changes included raising the downpayment for a second or subsequent property from 30per cent to 40per cent, and imposing a stamp duty of up to 16per cent on owners selling property within a year.
But some investors found a way to escape the tighter financing rules, by using their children's names for their second or third mortgage, said International Property Advisor chief executive Ku Swee Yong.
"Due to the young age of the new borrowers, the loan tenure has been stretched so that they can afford bigger apartments based on their current income," he noted.
It led to the latest cooling measure, he said, referring to the capping of loan tenure.
Investor Betty Chang, who has four home mortgages, taken out in 2008 and 2009, said she knows of "one or two" investors who used their children's names.
The accounting manager, 58, has no children and counts herself fortunate that she "got into the market earlier".
"If I was starting from zero now, I would not be able to sustain so many properties."
In the pool of mortgages held by major banks here, multiple-property owners took out 55,701 mortgages, which make up 12.5 per cent of all home mortgages. This is a rise from 9.7 per cent in 2007, said the credit bureau, which gathers data from the banks.
This group is also slightly more in debt than compared to five years ago. Among those holding multiple home loans, the average is 2.5 loans, up from 2.3 in 2007.
[email protected]
are you sure...reporter...:D:D:D
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showpost.php?p=322592&postcount=13
Bro, I don't understand what you trying to say? What is the correlation with the link?
Bro, I don't understand what you trying to say? What is the correlation with the link?
reporter say less people investing but this property SKY green even before official launch 80% snapped up...so obviously people trying to talk down the market but the reality is people still snapping up property...or i could be wrong...:cheers1:
buttercarp
24-10-12, 22:19
I saw this report the first thing in the morning when my husband flipped open the papers. My first thought : Are they in a stage of denial ?
Or are developments which sold out or almost sold out prior to launch just freak cases ?
reporter say less people investing but this property SKY green even before official launch 80% snapped up...so obviously people trying to talk down the market but the reality is people still snapping up property...or i could be wrong...:cheers1:
OIC. Bro, it says investors took out about 2 k loans. Which means investors bought 2000 units. Some maybe paid full - so ignore that number. How many units were sold in first 8 mths? So what he is saying, there are lesser investors. So there are many home buyers.
I again apply the 80/20 rule. 80% home buyers and 20% investors.
The numbers may vary +/- 10%.
Input how many condos were sold in 8 mth and you will get your ratio.
So his statement is correct.
:cheers6:
OIC. Bro, it says investors took out about 2 k loans. Which means investors bought 2000 units. Some maybe paid full - so ignore that number. How many units were sold in first 8 mths? So what he is saying, there are lesser investors. So there are many home buyers.
I again apply the 80/20 rule. 80% home buyers and 20% investors.
The numbers may vary +/- 10%.
Input how many condos were sold in 8 mth and you will get your ratio.
So his statement is correct.
:cheers6:
honestly bro day in day out go so many figures and data on singapore property market in the news...papers...forums...etc etc...after i while..i see stars....:D:sleep::D
I saw this report the first thing in the morning when my husband flipped open the papers. My first thought : Are they in a stage of denial ?
Or are developments which sold out or almost sold out prior to launch just freak cases ?
he he i saw it when my wife flipped the papers i was too busy digging into a plate of nasi lemak at marine terrace mkt...:D:D:D...stomach first papers later..:cheers1:
honestly bro day in day out go so many figures and data on singapore property market in the news...papers...forums...etc etc...after i while..i see stars....:D:sleep::D
Bro, embrace numbers. Numbers tell u a story. Numbers are clues. Just need to know what the numbers are telling you. Numbers don't lie, the people who interpret the numbers can lie.
Bro, numbers are like evidents in a crime scene. Just put on your CSI coat and you will find the answer.
The numbers are pointing to upward prices. GLS sales, interest rates, inflation causing material to go up, ECB bond purchase which will help spain and Greece, QE, immigration.
Bro, embrace numbers. Numbers tell u a story. Numbers are clues. Just need to know what the numbers are telling you. Numbers don't lie, the people who interpret the numbers can lie.
Bro, numbers are like evidents in a crime scene. Just put on your CSI coat and you will find the answer.
The numbers are pointing to upward prices. GLS sales, interest rates, inflation causing material to go up, ECB bond purchase which will help spain and Greece, QE, immigration.
your right bro..up is where its going...200 plus points drop on the dow jones has got NO effect on world financial markets anymore...:).
".....This investor group took out 2,037 mortgages for the first eight months of this year. Last year, the annual figure was 2,142 loans."
Based on the record, possibly there are 2-3 months worth of numbers of loans not added on the first 8 moth fig yet.....is the reporter excluding that or is expecting less than 125 loans to be taken in the next months?......with latest launches flying off the shelves, plus a few much anticipated launches in the coming months such as Eco Sanctuary and Hillview Peak plus the numbers from Yishun side possibly not in the computation yet.....? Isn't the conclusion too premature?
Sleepyhead
25-10-12, 07:32
Ya, the way I read it, despite the drop in % of people taking out 2nd mirtgage, overll number will still exceed last year's.... Which contradict the main point of the article. :banghead:
The numbers are pointing to upward prices. GLS sales, interest rates, inflation causing material to go up, ECB bond purchase which will help spain and Greece, QE, immigration.
Upward prices for new launches yes but old units seemed to be lagging quite badly leh.
Tanah Merah is a good case in point.
Upward prices for new launches yes but old units seemed to be lagging quite badly leh.
Tanah Merah is a good case in point.
Bro, you need time. When vision was launched, the price of blue horizon took some time.
When thomson grand was launched, the price of gardens at bishan took some time.
Things need time to move. If you have Tanah Merah project, just wait - if economy is constant, the move will kick in.
In the pool of mortgages held by major banks here, multiple-property owners took out 55,701 mortgages, which make up 12.5 per cent of all home mortgages. This is a rise from 9.7 per cent in 2007, said the credit bureau, which gathers data from the banks.
This group is also slightly more in debt than compared to five years ago. Among those holding multiple home loans, the average is 2.5 loans, up from 2.3 in 2007.
Secretariat, here goes :
There are 55,701 multiple loans (total of 1 house + investment unit/s).
Ave is 2.5 loans. so asume 1 loan for house and 1.5 loan for investment(this part you should understand - no need for me to explain and I do not intend to explain).
So 55,701 divide by 2.5 multiply 1.5 = 33.4K of investment units on loan.
There are some who already paid off their first house and took 1 loan on investment which is not reflected - put in a figure you are comfortable.
Another few scenario - own stay paid and some investment unit paid and took up 1 loan for investment. -paid full for own stay and investment.
There are total 200K pte. So roughly you get 80/20 rule. 80 own stay and 20 investor. Again +/- 10% to the rule.
So the main drivers are home buyers, not investors.
Once you got the report with you, I will share with you what are areas to look at to determine drivers.. Of course if you got it all figured out, just let me know and hopefully, you can share with me. Hahahaha
:cheers4:
Secretariat
25-10-12, 11:08
Secretariat, here goes :
There are 55,701 multiple loans (total of 1 house + investment unit/s).
Ave is 2.5 loans. so asume 1 loan for house and 1.5 loan for investment(this part you should understand - no need for me to explain and I do not intend to explain).
So 55,701 divide by 2.5 multiply 1.5 = 33.4K of investment units on loan.
There are some who already paid off their first house and took 1 loan on investment which is not reflected - put in a figure you are comfortable.
Another few scenario - own stay paid and some investment unit paid and took up 1 loan for investment. -paid full for own stay and investment.
There are total 200K pte. So roughly you get 80/20 rule. 80 own stay and 20 investor. Again +/- 10% to the rule.
So the main drivers are home buyers, not investors.
Once you got the report with you, I will share with you what are areas to look at to determine drivers.. Of course if you got it all figured out, just let me know and hopefully, you can share with me. Hahahaha
:cheers4:
33,400 investment loans, this OK.
Report? From bro Focus leh.
Secretariat
25-10-12, 11:10
Upward prices for new launches yes but old units seemed to be lagging quite badly leh.
Tanah Merah is a good case in point.
How much, in absolute $, and in %, for comparable size and location.
Don't mind sharing...:D
Bro, you need time. When vision was launched, the price of blue horizon took some time.
When thomson grand was launched, the price of gardens at bishan took some time.
Things need time to move. If you have Tanah Merah project, just wait - if economy is constant, the move will kick in.
rising tides raises all boats...but some slower some faster...:)
rising tides raises all boats...but some slower some faster...:)
Conviction is the key. Patience is a virtue.
33,400 investment loans, this OK.
Report? From bro Focus leh.
Aiya, you already so champion, dont want to share is it???
Just joking la. For me, I keep the report in my brain. What about u?
Conviction is the key. Patience is a virtue.
did confucis say that...:D
maybe he was confused...:D:D:D
did confucis say that...:D
maybe he was confused...:D:D:D
No la. I said it just now because I was confused by some forummers talking about en bloc. I share with them until I give up. But their weird thinking stuck in my mind. At the end of the day, I tell myself, dont argue. If anyone refuses to open up their mind to discussion, I just say they win and let them be lor. If not, I also kanna influence by their weird thinking and may start a losing streak in my investment. Hahahaha:cheers1:
Upward prices for new launches yes but old units seemed to be lagging quite badly leh.
Tanah Merah is a good case in point.
....but 15 year old Castle green keeps going up.....the last 2 bedder went for 870K (920 psf).....in mid-2013 was hovering around 800-810K that's a 5% increase in 6 mths.....
Upward prices for new launches yes but old units seemed to be lagging quite badly leh.
Tanah Merah is a good case in point.
Second hand properties are not lagging. They are on the right course.
It's only the new launches are selling at future prices to help pump in the maximum profit for developers. Who knows what will happen tomorrow? Make hay while the sun shines.
Ya, the way I read it, despite the drop in % of people taking out 2nd mirtgage, overll number will still exceed last year's.... Which contradict the main point of the article. :banghead:
Good one, u totally said what i wanted to.
Headline tak match content. Lol
....but 15 year old Castle green keeps going up.....the last 2 bedder went for 870K (920 psf).....in mid-2013 was hovering around 800-810K that's a 5% increase in 6 mths.....
mid 2013 wow back to the future...:scared-4:
mid 2013 wow back to the future...:scared-4:
ooops mid 2012....
Bro, you need time. When vision was launched, the price of blue horizon took some time.
When thomson grand was launched, the price of gardens at bishan took some time.
Things need time to move. If you have Tanah Merah project, just wait - if economy is constant, the move will kick in.
Oops, realised that there were replies to this statement I made that I didn't reply.
Am vested in an old TM 15 year old condo and have intention to sell it until the 60LH experiment came out. It's fully paid now so I suppose I am in no hurry to cash out...
How much, in absolute $, and in %, for comparable size and location.
Don't mind sharing...:D
Actually not really comparing apples to apples. The size of an old 3BR condo is equivalent to a new 4BR one these days!
http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a184/offshore_chicane/TMComparison.jpg
....but 15 year old Castle green keeps going up.....the last 2 bedder went for 870K (920 psf).....in mid-2013 was hovering around 800-810K that's a 5% increase in 6 mths.....
Second hand properties are not lagging. They are on the right course.
It's only the new launches are selling at future prices to help pump in the maximum profit for developers. Who knows what will happen tomorrow? Make hay while the sun shines.
The old ones are indeed moving up but is still a far way from the prices of the new launches (or at least I think so). :beats-me-man:
slim chance to get 4% yield if you buy now ,right?:o
....but 15 year old Castle green keeps going up.....the last 2 bedder went for 870K (920 psf).....in mid-2013 was hovering around 800-810K that's a 5% increase in 6 mths.....
if i'm not wrong, castle green is unique due to upcoming thomson line
Need to clarify this point about older properties catching up.
Please be mindful that there is a limit of catching up.
There is a new-old premium people willing to pay.
With the newer buyers, this premium is now significantly higher than say 3-5 years ago. 3-5 years ago, new-old premium (say 5-8 years) is about 15%. Now it can be easily 20%.
This doesnt mean it will ultimately catch up.
I have been advising people to be careful when doing such comparisons. Doesnt mean that Martin Place Residences hit $2,200 than Waterford will soon hit $1,950 ... there is a chance that it will NEVER.
So, when assessing this new-old thing, please be careful.
DKSG
Need to clarify this point about older properties catching up.
Please be mindful that there is a limit of catching up.
There is a new-old premium people willing to pay.
With the newer buyers, this premium is now significantly higher than say 3-5 years ago. 3-5 years ago, new-old premium (say 5-8 years) is about 15%. Now it can be easily 20%.
This doesnt mean it will ultimately catch up.
I have been advising people to be careful when doing such comparisons. Doesnt mean that Martin Place Residences hit $2,200 than Waterford will soon hit $1,950 ... there is a chance that it will NEVER.
So, when assessing this new-old thing, please be careful.
DKSG
just compare seletaris vs northwood vs TN/CR
Need to clarify this point about older properties catching up.
Please be mindful that there is a limit of catching up.
There is a new-old premium people willing to pay.
With the newer buyers, this premium is now significantly higher than say 3-5 years ago. 3-5 years ago, new-old premium (say 5-8 years) is about 15%. Now it can be easily 20%.
This doesnt mean it will ultimately catch up.
I have been advising people to be careful when doing such comparisons. Doesnt mean that Martin Place Residences hit $2,200 than Waterford will soon hit $1,950 ... there is a chance that it will NEVER.
So, when assessing this new-old thing, please be careful.
DKSG
Nah, was never under the illusion that the old will ever catch up with the new.
Question is more on what's the right premium, if you see my earlier comparison, the difference can be close to 40% in the TM area! :o
Nah, was never under the illusion that the old will ever catch up with the new.
Question is more on what's the right premium, if you see my earlier comparison, the difference can be close to 40% in the TM area! :o
opportunity for arbitrage!
opportunity for arbitrage!
After Eco, there's Urban Vista plus the plot of land recently won by Keppel Land.
Let's see if these new launches stir up more interest! :D
opportunity for arbitrage!
How to short a new property?
How to short a new property?
hahah, is it a half glass full or half glass empty?
If all else being the same, new vs old should not be more than 10% difference... :beats-me-man:
However, if we adjust for the more useless space (some as much as 25%!) in the new development for same quoted size in Sq Ft, really old should be worth same as new or even more!
Need to clarify this point about older properties catching up.
Please be mindful that there is a limit of catching up.
There is a new-old premium people willing to pay.
With the newer buyers, this premium is now significantly higher than say 3-5 years ago. 3-5 years ago, new-old premium (say 5-8 years) is about 15%. Now it can be easily 20%.
This doesnt mean it will ultimately catch up.
I have been advising people to be careful when doing such comparisons. Doesnt mean that Martin Place Residences hit $2,200 than Waterford will soon hit $1,950 ... there is a chance that it will NEVER.
So, when assessing this new-old thing, please be careful.
DKSG
If all else being the same, new vs old should not be more than 10% difference... :beats-me-man:
However, if we adjust for the more useless space (some as much as 25%!) in the new development for same quoted size in Sq Ft, really old should be worth same as new or even more!
But too bad majority of buyers are suckers. Of they can think indepth, new launches wont sell like hotcakes.
But too bad majority of buyers are suckers. Of they can think indepth, new launches wont sell like hotcakes.
the same reason why some pple die die must buy new car.
Most of the TOP projects experience substantial price jumps except for some ccr projects. There are buyers willing to fork out premium for newly TOP projects.
Sometimes buy the right new launches can reap good profits upon TOP.
Wrong metality may be? People buy new car may be because if used over full 10 years period + know sure no problem with car because of previous wrecking accident, flooded vehicles etc hidden problems which are just patched up temporarily (i.e. "lemon" vehicles) is still worth it vs buying old and going to garage every few months for repair (down time considerable => time wasted and time is money!). :beats-me-man:
However, properties always can patch up, sure no problem. In fact, new BUC properties may have a lot of problems because you don't even know the end product and quality until they are a few years old! :banghead:
the same reason why some pple die die must buy new car.
U never know if someone is murdered, has committed suicide, or chased by Ah Long in an old house.
U never know if someone is murdered, has committed suicide, or chased by Ah Long in an old house.
That is the tenants problem. Maybe some of them like to see ghost also
That is the tenants problem. Maybe some of them like to see ghost also
V hard to sell next time.
auroraborealis
03-12-12, 14:54
but BUC also got accidents or murder cases, so not totally clean
it's whether these cases are reported or not
further, most BUC the 1st occupants are the construction workers :doh:
ever heard some workers discussing which "units" they gg to sleep in "tonight" for a newly TOP project... one replied "top-floor PH" :banghead:
U never know if someone is murdered, has committed suicide, or chased by Ah Long in an old house.
the same reason why some pple die die must buy new car.
new car last u 10 years u loan 10 years....then bye bye...:banghead::banghead::banghead:
new property last u 95years...u loan 20 to 30 years then its urs...:):):)
so what should we buy...:cool:
new car last u 10 years u loan 10 years....then bye bye...:banghead::banghead::banghead:
new property last u 95years...u loan 20 to 30 years then its urs...:):):)
so what should we buy...:cool:
best part is if u're renting it out, someone else is paying for u during the 20 to 30 years :cool:
OIC. Bro, it says investors took out about 2 k loans. Which means investors bought 2000 units. Some maybe paid full - so ignore that number. How many units were sold in first 8 mths? So what he is saying, there are lesser investors. So there are many home buyers.
I again apply the 80/20 rule. 80% home buyers and 20% investors.
The numbers may vary +/- 10%.
Input how many condos were sold in 8 mth and you will get your ratio.
So his statement is correct.
:cheers6:
correct dude..:)
but BUC also got accidents or murder cases, so not totally clean
it's whether these cases are reported or not
further, most BUC the 1st occupants are the construction workers :doh:
ever heard some workers discussing which "units" they gg to sleep in "tonight" for a newly TOP project... one replied "top-floor PH" :banghead:
I saw the workers sleeping in my unit under construction. But the developer better make sure things are done up nicely when I take over, else I will make noise.
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