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Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...
http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-investment-in-the-singapore-property-market/
So, where are we today?
Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...
http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-investment-in-the-singapore-property-market/
So, where are we today?
thanks bro chestnut. thought you are on holidays. interesting article that phases out what many of us already knows.
i think we are in the flat phase of late bull that is consolidating... going forward, it may continue in either direction, depending on external factors, but at worst probably in a plateau fashion. this is what our govt wants as well.
thanks bro chestnut. thought you are on holidays. interesting article that phases out what many of us already knows.
i think we are in the flat phase of late bull that is consolidating... going forward, it may continue in either direction, depending on external factors, but at worst probably in a plateau fashion. this is what our govt wants as well.
Bro, I travel for a living... Hahaha sort of... My work requires me to travel within se Asia + a few countries....
I roughly know this but it is very difficult to articulate it... But this link, actually articulates it quite well...
After the bull, there will always be the bear... U cannot run away from that... Just look out for tell tale signs... If u have 2, difficult to play... U sell 1, bloody price, continue to run, it is diffult to go in again.... Then, by the time it drops, u may be too 'old' and bank shorten your tenure...
Aiya, to elaborate, too long.... U guys smart enough to know wat I talking about lah... Enjoy the link...
seems like we are at early bear with news of 8 projects with large unsold units. The problem with this statement is with every new launch, the take up rate seems to indicate a new phase of bull . So is there such a term as segmented bull n bear market?
Bro, I travel for a living... Hahaha sort of... My work requires me to travel within se Asia + a few countries....
I roughly know this but it is very difficult to articulate it... But this link, actually articulates it quite well...
After the bull, there will always be the bear... U cannot run away from that... Just look out for tell tale signs... If u have 2, difficult to play... U sell 1, bloody price, continue to run, it is diffult to go in again.... Then, by the time it drops, u may be too 'old' and bank shorten your tenure...
Aiya, to elaborate, too long.... U guys smart enough to know wat I talking about lah... Enjoy the link...
bro, do you enjoy your overseas trip?
eg. tiring?
bro, do you enjoy your overseas trip?
eg. tiring?
Overseas work trip... I used to travel like taking bus... But nowadays 1 trip every 1 trip every 2 month...ave... More likely 3 trips within a month... Rest 3 month...hahahaha
I only use my brain,.... The rest of the trip, people entertain me,,, my only fear is FOOD. Too much of it,l. Must be damn discipline to control all the good food in front of me,,,
Sucker for food...
Overseas work trip... I used to travel like taking bus... But nowadays 1 trip every 1 trip every 2 month...ave... More likely 3 trips within a month... Rest 3 month...hahahaha
I only use my brain,.... The rest of the trip, people entertain me,,, my only fear is FOOD. Too much of it,l. Must be damn discipline to control all the good food in front of me,,,
Sucker for food...
lol~
do take care of your health..
you are what you eat :p
We are in the middle of bull market. Stock prices still a far cry from crazy level. US Interest rate is very low. During end of the bull, penny stocks, even profit losing company stock prices up few times even lousy company also make money. Interest rate will be above 5%. But We still don't see that now. If no cooling measures property price will continue to up by large percentage.
seems like we are at early bear with news of 8 projects with large unsold units. The problem with this statement is with every new launch, the take up rate seems to indicate a new phase of bull . So is there such a term as segmented bull n bear market?
those 8 projects are in the luxury segment, which is well controlled by the CM. that's why they are not moving, and "normal" sinkies cannot afford them (me inclusive).
the new launches nowadays all OCR, within affordability levels, that's why high take up. and with each new CM, some buyers are eliminated, but others jump in for fear of MTB.
the charts only indicate the general mkt sentiment. in bad times, all are not spared. in good times, all cheong. because of CM, the mkts become segmented. the segmentation is just a minor distraction, now just waiting for global crash. i can say generally we are at end bull, but when will it cross into early bear is anybody's guess.
now just waiting for global crash. i can say generally we are at end bull, but when will it cross into early bear is anybody's guess.
many already prepare for a minor dip ~10%
many already prepare for a minor dip ~10%
think most of us are mentally prepared for 10-20% dip. that's what the 80% LTV (or lower) is for.
the worrying one is when >-40% will come. if ever.
Ccr not selling because of decentralisation of the cbd. When we purchase ocr at 1000 psqft that is the "new" historical low. U can never buy cheaper in the future.
Ccr not selling because of decentralisation of the cbd. When we purchase ocr at 1000 psqft that is the "new" historical low. U can never buy cheaper in the future.
ocr is like around 900-1000psqft nowadays..
is this just the starting point of some great run only?
:o
many already prepare for a minor dip ~10%
Many prepared years ago after hearing analyst say properties will corrext 50%
phantom_opera
21-11-12, 08:26
He just wanna sell his books
I prefer to read charts at ZeroHedge and arrives at my own conclusion :p
ocr is like around 900-1000psqft nowadays..
is this just the starting point of some great run only?
:o
No matter how the economy is doing or how much interest rate chiong, ocr at 1000 psqft is the bottom price. If any lower we would be in jakarta, bangkok, KL price's territory.
Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...
http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-investment-in-the-singapore-property-market/
So, where are we today?
Anal ysts are always good at looking things backwards. Otherwise wont be called so rite.
Anyway, dont time market, buy what u can afford and can hold. Properties are never to be sold anyway (except nonFH), so cycle up down dont apply.
Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...
http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-investment-in-the-singapore-property-market/
So, where are we today?
The "late bear" stage seems so short.. very difficult to aim :scared-5:
If 80%LTV is to prepare for 20% crash...so new 60% LTV loan means....
What the CM is to prepare everyone for the worst..
This prudence will bring property price down especially now the govt now knows the ones who push the mkt up is neither the buyer or seller. But the banks
Many prepared years ago after hearing analyst say properties will correct 50%
The so-called analyst.. talked BIG BIG correct 50%.. quietly entered the market during the last 2-yrs..
As for the others.. still waiting & waiting & waiting.. end up cannot tahan.. lan lan act blur do "copy & paste" of bad news lor :D
He just wanna sell his books
I prefer to read charts at ZeroHedge and arrives at my own conclusion :p
Great !!!!!
I finally found someone who can do some research and have a clue of the next recession... Signs are via charts, historical analyst, happening - like QE which alters the cause, etc....
But it gives us a clue... Not 100% but an idea...
Like looking at clouds to predict rain. Weather forecast. 4 Seasons as a guide... Winter does not happen on a specific date... It happens around a certain month...
Bro, when u spot certain signs, please let me now... I am not a chartist like u... My sign readins are different...
Thanks
:cheers5:
Thanks for the chart Chestnut :cheers5:
Seems like there are different readings of the chart. Some say we are in the middle of a bull. Some say early bear. I think we are late bull:D
Whatever it is, buy if you can afford and also holding power and not get muddied in the amidst of playing the market
Thanks for the chart Chestnut :cheers5:
Seems like there are different readings of the chart. Some say we are in the middle of a bull. Some say early bear. I think we are late bull:D
Whatever it is, buy if you can afford and also holding power and not get muddied in the amidst of playing the market
i also say...:cheers5::spliff:
i say before he is the guru...:D
Bro, thanks for compliment, but I cannot wear this hat... Please do not call me that... Call me bro, please... If not I will disappear... Really... I am here to learn...
Bro, for all investments, please be void of emotions... Unless say u bot another home and your first home rent per out... Then don't sell 1st because it holds a lot of happy memory....
My townhouse in Pasir Panjang is like this... The price is good, rental sucks big time... But refuse to sell because family home for 15 years... My entire family has good memories of it and one of my kids will inherit this place...
As for the rest of my properties, it is but a ATM machine for my old (oops) mid age retirement....
Hahahahahah :cheers5:
Thanks for the chart Chestnut :cheers5:
Seems like there are different readings of the chart. Some say we are in the middle of a bull. Some say early bear. I think we are late bull:D
Whatever it is, buy if you can afford and also holding power and not get muddied in the amidst of playing the market
Wat I am trying to say is what goes up, must come down... As for the down, it depends on how deep and how long is the recession....
Now that prices are up, we need to look out for signs of down... I think it will still go up and this year scorecard will show it...how long, how much more, i don't know... We just need to keep looking out of our window to spot dark clouds..
If it is sunny, let's go out and play....
..:cheers5:
phantom_opera
21-11-12, 10:20
This thread is so long ... my only contribution is better quickly rent out ... yield compression will strike hard soon
This thread is so long ... my only contribution is better quickly rent out ... yield compression will strike hard soon
I agree. But please elaborate your reasons for this outlook. Thanks:cheers5:
Wat I am trying to say is what goes up, must come down... As for the down, it depends on how deep and how long is the recession....
Now that prices are up, we need to look out for signs of down... I think it will still go up and this year scorecard will show it...how long, how much more, i don't know... We just need to keep looking out of our window to spot dark clouds..
If it is sunny, let's go out and play....
..:cheers5:
Oh yes I agree whole-heartedly on What goes up must come down. I was caught in the 2003 bear and luckily held on (while trying to sell but no takers!) till it recovered and still managed to get one more in 2006 :D or I'll be crying my heart out till now :spliff:
This is a good forum and kudos to all the forummers for sharing their experiences (good or bad) which sometimes you need to pay tuition fees to learn if you want to get involved in the property market.
This thread is so long ... my only contribution is better quickly rent out ... yield compression will strike hard soon
My opinion, yield compression will be insignificant. Come december 15 2015 when asean economy community come into place, singapore will be inundated by wave of asean workers and investors. I don't believe sg gov is purposely building itself into over supply. No other country on earth is as nimble and agile as sg government. Or as forward planning.
Oh yes I agree whole-heartedly on What goes up must come down. I was caught in the 2003 bear and luckily held on (while trying to sell but no takers!) till it recovered and still managed to get one more in 2006 :D or I'll be crying my heart out till now :spliff:
This is a good forum and kudos to all the forummers for sharing their experiences (good or bad) which sometimes you need to pay tuition fees to learn if you want to get involved in the property market.
Hahahaha... Bro, I was caught in 97 and went in again in 2005 there abouts... So same route... Learn from mistake and came out smarter...
Many refrain after the burn....
:cheers5:
Chestnut, thanks for the article.
I think the signal is kind of mixed.. One of my relative trying to sell his property in d10, condo for 5.5m 6 month ago and now will let go at 4.6m. No offer so far. Tenant left in July, vacant till now so maybe the reason to sell lower. From asking rental 13k to now 9k.
This is not run down property, well renovated.
So where are we now. :tsk-tsk:
If 80%LTV is to prepare for 20% crash...so new 60% LTV loan means....
What the CM is to prepare everyone for the worst..
This prudence will bring property price down especially now the govt now knows the ones who push the mkt up is neither the buyer or seller. But the banks
exactly what i mean.
that's why i am worried about >-40% down. that is something even govt is not prepared for.
Can give clue how big and roughly where?
Doing some stats...
CCR badly hit with Absd....
I go in Absd will be 138k + sd about 100k... Already down 238k... Rent at 9k, will take 2 years to recover
:eek:
Chestnut, thanks for the article.
I think the signal is kind of mixed.. One of my relative trying to sell his property in d10, condo for 5.5m 6 month ago and now will let go at 4.6m. No offer so far. Tenant left in July, vacant till now so maybe the reason to sell lower. From asking rental 13k to now 9k.
This is not run down property, well renovated.
So where are we now. :tsk-tsk:
My opinion, yield compression will be insignificant. Come december 15 2015 when asean economy community come into place, singapore will be inundated by wave of asean workers and investors. I don't believe sg gov is purposely building itself into over supply. No other country on earth is as nimble and agile as sg government. Or as forward planning.
i am not pro govt but give credit where it is due. they do not have the distraction of messy politics, therefore they can do good planning. with 2011, some things have changed in the equation, but they are still doing decent work, IMHO. abit of kick in their backside is not a bad thing.
Chestnut, thanks for the article.
I think the signal is kind of mixed.. One of my relative trying to sell his property in d10, condo for 5.5m 6 month ago and now will let go at 4.6m. No offer so far. Tenant left in July, vacant till now so maybe the reason to sell lower. From asking rental 13k to now 9k.
This is not run down property, well renovated.
So where are we now. :tsk-tsk:
any idea how many bedder condo?
if it is large, i think chance of finding expat family might be difficult(not too sure) ..other member might want to comment on large size condo (3 bedder onward)
I was told 2500 sq ft, 4 room in holland, fh. Not too sure which development cos I don't want so sound too Kay Poh. Haha
Rental 9k @ $4.6m seem like subsidizing the tenant to stay on...
But now vacant, shd be good for people who want to buy for own stay rite...
Maybe quantum too big...
I think my relative also cannot tahan no rental going forward. He bought at 4.2m 2-3 years ago.
auroraborealis
21-11-12, 11:32
just for tcss sake, say u own a few rcr/ocr price risen from 30-60%
if the situation of ccr price drop persist while rcr/ocr remain strong,
will u sell the rcr/ocr to buy 1 ccr?
must admit have been thinking but no conclusion so far :confused:
Bro, thanks for compliment, but I cannot wear this hat... Please do not call me that... Call me bro, please... If not I will disappear... Really... I am here to learn...
Bro, for all investments, please be void of emotions... Unless say u bot another home and your first home rent per out... Then don't sell 1st because it holds a lot of happy memory....
My townhouse in Pasir Panjang is like this... The price is good, rental sucks big time... But refuse to sell because family home for 15 years... My entire family has good memories of it and one of my kids will inherit this place...
As for the rest of my properties, it is but a ATM machine for my old (oops) mid age retirement....
Hahahahahah :cheers5:
cheers....BRO...thanks for sharing:cheers5:...u also seem the sort that would rather tcss in the forums as compared to tcss with people in real life...:confused:...am i right...:spliff:
cheers....BRO...thanks for sharing:cheers5:...u also seem the sort that would rather tcss in the forums as compared to tcss with people in real life...:confused:...am i right...:spliff:
you still trying to psycho him to buy your neighbouring unit? :tongue3:
Chestnut, thanks for the article.
I think the signal is kind of mixed.. One of my relative trying to sell his property in d10, condo for 5.5m 6 month ago and now will let go at 4.6m. No offer so far. Tenant left in July, vacant till now so maybe the reason to sell lower. From asking rental 13k to now 9k.
This is not run down property, well renovated.
So where are we now. :tsk-tsk:
Ok here is my take....:spliff:
Would you rather buy 1 x 5M D10....condo or 5 x 1M OCR condo....:D:D:D
with 5 x OCR condo what u can do is this....
1 x Family stay
3 X Rental
1 X MOTHER IN LAW stay....:scared-1::scared-1::scared-1::scared-1::scared-1::D:D:D:D:D
Please ignore another stupid but FARNY idea from channel@08
you still trying to psycho him to buy your neighbouring unit? :tongue3:
bro mine low end one...my neighbours all pitch tent and go fishing at the beach...:spliff:...very soon i will join them..take a stroll down with my guitar...me and my wife will sit down under tree and i will play some some slow rock tunes from scorpions...rainbow..deep purple...then i will say to all bros/sis here....RELAK LA BRUDDER:D:D:D:D
bro mine low end one...my neighbours all pitch tent and go fishing at the beach...:spliff:...very soon i will join them..take a stroll down with my guitar...me and my wife will sit down under tree and i will play some some slow rock tunes from scorpions...rainbow..deep purple...then i will say to all bros/sis here....RELAK LA BRUDDER:D:D:D:D
bro dun say low or high end lah.
chinese got one saying, something like: gold house or silver house, best is still your own dog house.
your place is nice. holiday feeling. like everyday go chalet. shiok ah.
just for tcss sake, say u own a few rcr/ocr price risen from 30-60%
if the situation of ccr price drop persist while rcr/ocr remain strong,
will u sell the rcr/ocr to buy 1 ccr?
must admit have been thinking but no conclusion so far :confused:
If I am you, I will sell OCR/RCR and buy CCR for own stay. Siok
If I am you, I will sell OCR/RCR and buy CCR for own stay. Siok
ok i see how ccr living is like my sister renting apt in balmoral are next month she coming over to stay...:spliff:...can see sexy ang-moh i heard:D
same theory as when HDB and private price is very close, of course people will cross over.
My opinion, yield compression will be insignificant. Come december 15 2015 when asean economy community come into place, singapore will be inundated by wave of asean workers and investors. I don't believe sg gov is purposely building itself into over supply. No other country on earth is as nimble and agile as sg government. Or as forward planning.
didnt this "forward planning" resulted in the govt's recent admission that it could have planned better? :o
hindsight is 20/20, the govt planned well in the past, but not in recent yrs.
just for tcss sake, say u own a few rcr/ocr price risen from 30-60%
if the situation of ccr price drop persist while rcr/ocr remain strong,
will u sell the rcr/ocr to buy 1 ccr?
must admit have been thinking but no conclusion so far :confused:
There are 2 ways to read this.
1. RCR prices will recede after having moved too high or
2. CCR will move up naturally if the RCR prices persist to be stubborn
No one knows will it's go... a million $$ question
For me i'll go for a FH CCR as the downside is less compared to a LH RCR but bearing in mind of the ABSD and when you buy and sell. It might not be worth your while :banghead:
phantom_opera
21-11-12, 13:33
Ok here is my take....:spliff:
Would you rather buy 1 x 5M D10....condo or 5 x 1M OCR condo....:D:D:D
with 5 x OCR condo what u can do is this....
1 x Family stay
3 X Rental
1 X MOTHER IN LAW stay....:scared-1::scared-1::scared-1::scared-1::scared-1::D:D:D:D:D
Please ignore another stupid but FARNY idea from channel@08
If so much money, diversify liao, does not make sense to put all into properties
cheers....BRO...thanks for sharing:cheers5:...u also seem the sort that would rather tcss in the forums as compared to tcss with people in real life...:confused:...am i right...:spliff:
Bro, my tcss in real life more... I still adjusting to forum life... All this seem complicated to me... Truely....
:cheers5:
Bro, my tcss in real life more... I still adjusting to forum life... All this seem complicated to me... Truely....
:cheers5:
cheers bro i dont talk much in real life...but here i am champion...toolazy to meet people sit down and tcss except family...:cheers5:
didnt this "forward planning" resulted in the govt's recent admission that it could have planned better? :o
hindsight is 20/20, the govt planned well in the past, but not in recent yrs.
now they planning...
http://news.asiaone.com/A1Business/News/Story/A1Story20121121-384831.html
One guru labelled this as the perfect storm for Singapore properties.
The current 2006-2012 boom is attributed to :-
1) Demand Side - Govt intend to go to 6million population rumours and finally confirmation
2) Supply Side - Undersupply of HDB Flats, Not necessarily of pte.
3) Affordability Ratio - Low interest rate as a result of QE and safe-haven by Europeans/US/Rich people to AAA-Rated country. It does not mean the rich are parking money in assets like real estate in singapore as evident in the lacklustre sales of CCR properties. It means money are just repatriated into financial institutions as a holding ground amid the crisis. The low interest rate translate to massive affordability for Singaporeans/PRs looking at OCR/RCR properties. Probably when they could only afford a 800k property, the low interest allows them to go up to $1.5mil.
When everything seems so rosy and the boom continues forever...the perfect storm is building up. He noted USA is in the midst of a recovery and it will most definitely be able to recover by 2014 onwards. Forward FX pricing of USD suggests traders are betting 2015 is the last year of QE(or Low interest rate).
1) Demand Side - Govt will continue with the 6million population plan.
2) Supply Side - HDB ramping up supply to meet the demand for public housing(80% of population). Massive completion of pte properties (build mainly for housing expats or as investments). Will there really be demand for so many properties if the population is capped at 6million? or the governments announced intent of 1/3 foreign legion(mostly 80% in HDB,20% in pte) in our population.
3) Low Interest Rate - The recovery will USA will mean reversal of carry-trade and rich money moving onto risk-on assets in US(in spite of any tax hikes). Liquidity(hot money) will moved massively out of Singapore and the low interest rate will not be there anymore. Your average singapore affordability of OCR/RCR properties at 1% suddenly is exploded into 3-4% and negative yields come in. Prices need to dropped in order for yield to be positive again (unless you forsee rentals increase which is unlikely if there is a massive oversupply in pte properties and adequate supply in HDB). Probably why the governmeent has started preparing current buyers for the 4% interest rate environment thru' the 40-60% LTV and 30yrs loan tenure.
He forsee a stable price environment for 2013 till 2014..Whether the storm will come to fruition in 2014-2015 is anybody's guess.
But he noted that some OCR properties are now priced like a prime property in Manhatten,usa. Is this the peak or the bottom in Singapore. Is that the peak or the bottom in USA. He noted investors(rich) moves money to where it is best treated. The rich buy in anticipation of a recovery, the poor buy in anticipation of further capital appreciation.
When we hit 6.5 million by 2020, most of the RCR will become CCR, and OCR will become RCR. I believe JLD could become the next CCR by 2020.
If the West recovers, they will resume to consumption mode, which will boost trade between East and West. Prob Singapore can cream off some of additional money that flows between East and West. Hopefully the higher interest can be off-set by higher pay and bonus.
phantom_opera
21-11-12, 14:45
OCR 700psf is long gone, last seen only during Lehman crisis ... here is Japan export growth data .. now u know why any OCR condo will be minimum 1000psf??
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/11/20121120_JPY4_0.png
When we hit 6.5 million by 2020, most of the RCR will become CCR, and OCR will become RCR. I believe JLD could become the next CCR by 2020.
If the West recovers, they will resume to consumption mode, which will boost trade between East and West. Prob Singapore can cream off some of additional money that flows between East and West. Hopefully the higher interest can be off-set by higher pay and bonus.
If US economy improve, rents will go up further which will offset the higher interest rates and need for property prices to decline to maintain yield.
Are we all not waiting for US economy to improve for better times here?
OCR 700psf is long gone, last seen only during Lehman crisis ... here is Japan export growth data .. now u know why any OCR condo will be minimum 1000psf??
Size is dropping...that's how $1000 psf or higher can be achieved in OCR.
auroraborealis
21-11-12, 14:53
yes but size is demographics drive so unlikely to turn back unless birthrates up to > 2 :tsk-tsk:
Size is dropping...that's how $1000 psf or higher can be achieved in OCR.
If US economy improve, rents will go up further which will offset the higher interest rates and need for property prices to decline to maintain yield.
Are we all not waiting for US economy to improve for better times here?
Higher GDP/growth prob means more consumption, which is at the expense of environment. I recently tested out this theory for JB that is now destroying its environment at a rapid rate to achieve very good economic growth despite global recession.
OMG the sky is falling run bros/sis run...said CHICKEN LITTLE....sorry today family day watching this stupid show with my kids at home...:D:D:D
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8d/Chickenlittlesoundtrack.jpg/220px-Chickenlittlesoundtrack.jpg
thanks bro, thought it's better to continue our discussion here and not take up the ATT thread.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showpost.php?p=339177&postcount=1531
i din take into account the marriage figures.
but did you look at the supply that is coming on-stream?
From 2006 to 2011
Population increase in resident : 261K
Private built (page 15): 35K
HDB built (11.11) : 43K
Total : Properties built = 78K
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/the.../marriages.pdf
No of marriages total :147K
Have not included those employment pass who need dwelling.
Ok... Now figure it out...
Here's my take:
From 2006 to 2011
Population increase in resident : 261K (i thought should be 292k)
[SUPPLY]
Total supply between 2006 and 2011, plus future:
Private built: 35k
private condo future supply: 85,724 (11.2)
HDB built: 43k
HDB future supply: 27k (announced 2012), at least 20k for 2013
[DEMAND]
New residents: 292k
Assuming birth-rate=death rate, the net change is solely due to incoming residents, 292/3=97k families (assuming one household=3 heads)
HDB demand: 80k, condo demand: 17k
New marriages: 147k
Assume 80% new marriages and of these,
80% buy new house, and of these,
82% buy HDB:
ie: 77k (hdb), 17k (condo)
[CONCLUSION]
total demand for HDB: 80k+77k=157k
total demand for condo: 17k+17k=34k
total supply for HDB: 43k+27k+20k=90k
total supply for condo: 121k
my maths fail, so hope din miss out anything. give or take, we are about equal for demand and supply going forward. is my conclusion same as yours?
Bro u must stop at 2011. If u want to include 2012 and 2013 for hdb, u need to include in 20k+ marriage for 2012 and 2013.
That's why hdb shortage.
Bro, sorry, I too lazy. All home to me still shortage. Watch out for population size next yr. u still need to include rental... A lot of elements. Hahaha
thanks bro, thought it's better to continue our discussion here and not take up the ATT thread.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showpost.php?p=339177&postcount=1531
i din take into account the marriage figures.
but did you look at the supply that is coming on-stream?
Here's my take:
From 2006 to 2011
Population increase in resident : 261K (i thought should be 292k)
[SUPPLY]
Total supply between 2006 and 2011, plus future:
Private built: 35k
private condo future supply: 85,724 (11.2)
HDB built: 43k
HDB future supply: 27k (announced 2012), at least 20k for 2013
[DEMAND]
New residents: 292k
Assuming birth-rate=death rate, the net change is solely due to incoming residents, 292/3=97k families (assuming one household=3 heads)
HDB demand: 80k, condo demand: 17k
New marriages: 147k
Assume 80% new marriages and of these,
80% buy new house, and of these,
82% buy HDB:
ie: 77k (hdb), 17k (condo)
[CONCLUSION]
total demand for HDB: 80k+77k=157k
total demand for condo: 17k+17k=34k
total supply for HDB: 43k+27k+20k=90k
total supply for condo: 121k
my maths fail, so hope din miss out anything. give or take, we are about equal for demand and supply going forward. is my conclusion same as yours?
proud owner
04-12-12, 16:01
Bro u must stop at 2011. If u want to include 2012 and 2013 for hdb, u need to include in 20k+ marriage for 2012 and 2013.
That's why hdb shortage.
Bro, sorry, I too lazy. All home to me still shortage. Watch out for population size next yr. u still need to include rental... A lot of elements. Hahaha
in 2005 i did a simplier calculation
target : population increase from 4 mil to 6 mil
thats 2mil ...
assuming PR + new citizens
assuming its a family of 4 ... parents + 2 kids
2mil / 4 = 500,000
500,000 homes (units ) needed ...
on a high year ..spore can build 14k unit..( in a year)
500,000/14,000 = 35
35 yrs to fully house them ..
when i saw that ... in 2005/6 i whacked already ..
Bro u must stop at 2011. If u want to include 2012 and 2013 for hdb, u need to include in 20k+ marriage for 2012 and 2013.
That's why hdb shortage.
Bro, sorry, I too lazy. All home to me still shortage. Watch out for population size next yr. u still need to include rental... A lot of elements. Hahaha
See numbers until I see stars. Long story short, supply still chasing after demand hence HDB is building flats like mad, Govt is releasing GLS like no tomorrow, developers are bidding like they never see a piece of land in their life.
Honestly I was just too plain lazy to do all the analysis and my rule of thumb was simple. How much did property prices dip in the last major financial crisis i.e. Lehman? It was 15% and something I could stomach and the rest was history. :D
Bro u must stop at 2011. If u want to include 2012 and 2013 for hdb, u need to include in 20k+ marriage for 2012 and 2013.
That's why hdb shortage.
Bro, sorry, I too lazy. All home to me still shortage. Watch out for population size next yr. u still need to include rental... A lot of elements. Hahaha
hahah, that's why i asked for model answer. but then, the calculatoin helped to substantiate your claims. thanks and glad to know i am on safe grounds. 15% dip for lehman. i can stomach too. in fact, i was prepared for 40% down.
See numbers until I see stars. Long story short, supply still chasing after demand hence HDB is building flats like mad, Govt is releasing GLS like no tomorrow, developers are bidding like they never see a piece of land in their life.
yah, i thought so too. govt is not stupid, they will do something to appease voters, but not at the expense of a huge supply overhang. furthermore i noticed concept plan 2011 until now also not released. they must be busy trying to figure out what is the equilibrium.
yah, i thought so too. govt is not stupid, they will do something to appease voters, but not at the expense of a huge supply overhang. furthermore i noticed concept plan 2011 until now also not released. they must be busy trying to figure out what is the equilibrium.
Haha, the govt have a room full of scholars that does nothing except analyze data like these all day. the govt always pride itself for planning way ahead (though they did screw up on the COEs and the immigration policy) so no way will they want to get it wrong this time. :D
I have great faith in our paramount leaders! :D :D
U really think they want equilibrium??
Hahahaha
U really think they want equilibrium??
Hahahaha
wah.. very cheem statement leh
wah.. very cheem statement leh
Bro, if equilibrium, u think hdb price will go up?
Why they come out with bto?
I could be wrong.. Hahahaha... Most of the time I tcss..
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f6/Equilibriumposter.jpg
:D :D :D
Bro, if equilibrium, u think hdb price will go up?
Why they come out with bto?
I could be wrong.. Hahahaha... Most of the time I tcss..
dunno. i am law abiding citizen. i am sure our govt do everything for our own good.
:not-worthy:
Haha, the govt have a room full of scholars that does nothing except analyze data like these all day. the govt always pride itself for planning way ahead (though they did screw up on the COEs and the immigration policy) so no way will they want to get it wrong this time. :D
I have great faith in our paramount leaders! :D :D
External parameters affecting Singapore are changing too fast and are too intertwined to analyze accurately. Acumen rather than analysis may work better. Good to take pro-active action yourself to protect your own wealth.
dunno. i am law abiding citizen. i am sure our govt do everything for our own good.
:not-worthy:
Me 2.... That's why I love the govt.
:cheers4:
This thread is so long ... my only contribution is better quickly rent out ... yield compression will strike hard soon
As I have been saying, yield will be hit. No doubt ppl have holding power, there will be pockets of people who will be impatient. They will let go as their yield sucks, price not moving for ccr. Asking prices are soft.
Slowly price will come down. Vol is already down. Will it
Roll into something bigger? That's the million question.
Usa seems to be recovering and china also seems to have avoided a hard landing.
I will not expect any property correction for sg in 2013. 2cents.
Think I shared this before quite many times.
In Sg, it is not too difficult to forecast or detect price corrections.
If u still don't know, then got to study the market harder, go show flats more often, see who are the people buying and what cause them to sell they properties to you are a loss.
Property prices are more sticky on the way down than up because NOBODY likes to sell at a loss. In fact, most people, all at costs, will want to make some profits.
DKSG
As I have been saying, yield will be hit. No doubt ppl have holding power, there will be pockets of people who will be impatient. They will let go as their yield sucks, price not moving for ccr. Asking prices are soft.
Slowly price will come down. Vol is already down. Will it
Roll into something bigger? That's the million question.
Agree that price is moving slower now. volume down is becoz less and less pple are buying due to CM. the pool of potential buyer becomes smaller and smaller with each new CM.
Whether it will crash? unlikely given low interest rate scenario. soft landing perhaps.
Yield sucks let go, but provided got decent profit (minimum 20-30%). so only those who bought early early are in this league. Many? Don't think so. GLS still coming out fast and furious.
Think I shared this before quite many times.
In Sg, it is not too difficult to forecast or detect price corrections.
If u still don't know, then got to study the market harder, go show flats more often, see who are the people buying and what cause them to sell they properties to you are a loss.
Property prices are more sticky on the way down than up because NOBODY likes to sell at a loss. In fact, most people, all at costs, will want to make some profits.
DKSG
sorry ah.. who do u think are buying? mostly sgporeans who MTB and now jumping in?
What I don't understand is, so many of us here can make the simple calculation of the amount of new residents coming in and hence correspondingly, we need a certain number of new hdb and condo units...
How can our government screw that up? Till now I am trying find out what happen in the last five years..... The cabinet ministers meet every week... Don't they share? Manpower minister will say I will let a certain number of people to come ine and naturally the health minister and transport minister and nationL development minister will know what to do right?
I maybe too simplistic, but till now I really cant figure out how they got it so wrong....
What I don't understand is, so many of us here can make the simple calculation of the amount of new residents coming in and hence correspondingly, we need a certain number of new hdb and condo units...
How can our government screw that up? Till now I am trying find out what happen in the last five years..... The cabinet ministers meet every week... Don't they share? Manpower minister will say I will let a certain number of people to come ine and naturally the health minister and transport minister and nationL development minister will know what to do right?
I maybe too simplistic, but till now I really cant figure out how they got it so wrong....
Bro, u had the Lehman issue. What if we go deep into recession, we need to send all this foreigners back leh.... So better to under supply than over supply? Which one more detrimental?
If u are in biz, better to understock or overstock?
What I don't understand is, so many of us here can make the simple calculation of the amount of new residents coming in and hence correspondingly, we need a certain number of new hdb and condo units...
How can our government screw that up? Till now I am trying find out what happen in the last five years..... The cabinet ministers meet every week... Don't they share? Manpower minister will say I will let a certain number of people to come ine and naturally the health minister and transport minister and nationL development minister will know what to do right?
I maybe too simplistic, but till now I really cant figure out how they got it so wrong....
Can be partly traced back to 2002-2004 period when there were retrenchments at HDB due to oversupplies of HDBs and a deep slump in the construction industry.
Can be partly traced back to 2002-2004 period when there were retrenchments at HDB due to oversupplies of HDBs and a deep slump in the construction industry.
those days when jurong west new HDB lelong discount also no takers. now... hot like mad. somemore JLD. if follow concept plan 2001, should have whack jurong west HDB sure make $$$.
those days when jurong west new HDB lelong discount also no takers. now... hot like mad. somemore JLD. if follow concept plan 2001, should have whack jurong west HDB sure make $$$.
Bro. A few reasons:
1. People cannot catch hints
2. People have no patience
3. People cannot 'see' economy directions
That's why 80/20 rule apply. 20 will make it. So eventually people need to help themselves. The other 80 rely on govt. This 80 will 'bitch' but that's life. So if anyone wants to reach the 20, must 'work' lor. Like in school. The rewards will fall on the 20 who put in effort, then they will be rewarded. Sad but true. Surely get hamtam for this statement but the truth hurts. No choice.
4. Herd instint.
People dun buy, sure not good. then you buy for what?
4. Herd instint.
People dun buy, sure not good. then you buy for what?
I am living in the vicinity. There are some concerns about the air quality here, and i can't say that they are unfounded. Nonetheless, it is something the whole country needs to be always aware of.
I am living in the vicinity. There are some concerns about the air quality here, and i can't say that they are unfounded. Nonetheless, it is something the whole country needs to be always aware of.
that's true. however, i hang out in the west quite alot. my grandma in law stayed in the west all her life, living to ripe old age of 101. hard to say about long term effects. if you went up high and looked over the west, can see a layer of smog floating over it.
i was considering summerdale/parc oasis/mayfair at one point in time. but the industry view (and air) put me off.
I am living in the vicinity. There are some concerns about the air quality here, and i can't say that they are unfounded. Nonetheless, it is something the whole country needs to be always aware of.
Has been the case since I was studying in NTU eons ago. I'm surprised the situation has not changed.
Has been the case since I was studying in NTU eons ago. I'm surprised the situation has not changed.
I always thot it was coco smell.... Hahahaha
I always thot it was coco smell.... Hahahaha
There is really a cocoa smell, Cadbury's factory is located there!
It's not just the smell, there seems to be a lot of impurities in the air there, my nose used to act up once I hit Boon Lay in the past!
Has been the case since I was studying in NTU eons ago. I'm surprised the situation has not changed.
same here.. this funky chocolate smell at NTU and Jurong West.. I will always remember!
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-q3Js2cwkB6g/UMA5SRIeOII/AAAAAAAAFCY/sfnOLJUPHiE/s800/2013-2025.jpg
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-tL2r9lqgegw/UMA5SV29noI/AAAAAAAAFCc/Cf7gGFrMvfk/s800/2025-2040.jpg
East Lover
06-12-12, 13:31
any explaination for the color?
I noticed not the whole plot oppt waterview will be developed, but new plot next to TP will be developed also. That site is door step to Tampines West MRT ;) wondering how much will it be - next to MRT, reversior view (possible?), one stop to Tampines Central....
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-q3Js2cwkB6g/UMA5SRIeOII/AAAAAAAAFCY/sfnOLJUPHiE/s800/2013-2025.jpg
hi Shanhz
interesting
where did u get all this maps?
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-q3Js2cwkB6g/UMA5SRIeOII/AAAAAAAAFCY/sfnOLJUPHiE/s800/2013-2025.jpg
Is this map from Master Plan 2013 draft? Puggol, Sembawang and Kallang Riverside are the top 3 areas with most population.
hi Shanhz
interesting
where did u get all this maps?
this is frm the skyscraper forum
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=96730438&postcount=361
if you all free nothing to do, can go and read.. they have very intensive discussion on MRT lines, future town devp, etc. true or not.. ownself decide
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