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economist
21-01-13, 09:11
Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

thomastansb
21-01-13, 09:26
The demand has definitely shrink. No doubt. I don't think a lot of singaporean 2nd buyer will pay 7%. We very niao ji niao lan one. Unless he/she can rebate back the 7% but that also means the current property will be back into the market.

As for desperate owner, I don't really think so. Unless those who bought at ridiculous price but still, why would they sell at a loss if they have the money to buy at ridiculous pricing? I think the problem will start when rental starts dropping. CCR already softening so unless rental picks up, life is going to be hard for those who bought at high price. Then see who blink first. CM8 or CM9 is not going to affect much if rental stays strong.





Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

economist
21-01-13, 09:32
That's right, the 7% and 10% has really turned off many of the potential buyers.

I didn't mean owners are desperately selling, I meant some of them are desperately posting here to defend their rhetoric theory, I did't actually want to post until I saw a thread today which almost made me laugh. Yes, sellers will not panic sell, supply will actually be reduced, what matters is that demand will be reduced much more than that!! As a result, more likely than not, residential prices will drop.


The demand has definitely shrink. No doubt. I don't think a lot of singaporean 2nd buyer will pay 7%. We very niao ji niao lan one. Unless he/she can rebate back the 7% but that also means the current property will be back into the market.

As for desperate owner, I don't really think so. Unless those who bought at ridiculous price but still, why would they sell at a loss if they have the money to buy at ridiculous pricing? I think the problem will start when rental starts dropping. CCR already softening so unless rental picks up, life is going to be hard for those who bought at high price. Then see who blink first. CM8 or CM9 is not going to affect much if rental stays strong.

kane
21-01-13, 09:39
Resale sellers don't have an absd "absorption" scheme. Makes sense to go for developer sales no?

buttercarp
21-01-13, 09:50
Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

Hi TS.......
I think most property owners here (at least the active ones who post are not desperate). We are just sharing why we think that the prices may or may not correct.
The property market will not change because of us expressing our opinion.

IMHO.... the desperate ones are not property owners, but the ........
You go fill in the blank (up to your imagination).

Regarding the resale units.... how do you know if there are no buyers?
You just need 1 serious buyer to cause a transaction to take place.

indomie
21-01-13, 09:53
That's right, the 7% and 10% has really turned off many of the potential buyers.

I didn't mean owners are desperately selling, I meant some of them are desperately posting here to defend their rhetoric theory, I did't actually want to post until I saw a thread today which almost made me laugh. Yes, sellers will not panic sell, supply will actually be reduced, what matters is that demand will be reduced much more than that!! As a result, more likely than not, residential prices will drop.
There are 2 types of people here. There are end users and also investors. For investor like myself, constantly testing my investment theory in this forum. I also delighted at people who has opposing view. I am sure there are big players in the industry at this forum. The more extreme the view the better for me, so we can anticipate every possible outcomes. Looking forward to your kind contributions.

economist
21-01-13, 10:02
That's a very gracious post. Thanks.


There are 2 types of people here. There are end users and also investors. For investor like myself, constantly testing my investment theory in this forum. I also delighted at people who has opposing view. I am sure there are big players in the industry at this forum. The more extreme the view the better for me, so we can anticipate every possible outcomes. Looking forward to your kind contributions.

Tek888
21-01-13, 10:05
Hi,

I am also a newbie in this forum. Since discovering this forum recently, I have never failed to login everyday to read up the interesting posts here. I must say the folks here are very knowledgeable and willing to share as well. I really picked up a lot in the past few weeks.

Since this is an open forum, everyone is free to share their own views. As readers, we have the responsibility to do our own due diligence before making any purchases. We are using our own money to make the purchases, not the forumers here. So it is up to us to digest the info here, make our own deduction before making our own moves.

If things go well based on the info here....great! If not, we have only ourselves to blame.

Just my 2 humble cents. ;)

pentium
21-01-13, 10:07
These is no denial that property prices are will be affected by CM7. However, it is still too early to tell the impact. It may take abt 6 mths to see the real effects of the CM7.

What we can see now is that developers are already absobing the 7%, effectively prices has drop by 7% for those who bought last month.

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:21
I think TS is a newbie to the cyber world. I have been in the Internet property forums since like 2006. WOAAHAHEHEHEHEHHEHEHEH

Doom
21-01-13, 10:27
Ditto Economist views. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines, waiting to come in only if there is cut in prices. Some developers have already blinked. Like Q Bay. Like D'leedon. Have been getting calls from agents saying other developers are also willing to give extra discounts. And these are genuine discounts, because these are for projects I am familiar with. To say that CM7 will have no impact is hoping against hope. As Economist says, such comments are more vociferous than before previous CM. So are there some deep seated doubts lurking underneath?

cnud
21-01-13, 10:29
Ditto Economist views. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines, waiting to come in only if there is cut in prices. Some developers have already blinked. Like Q Bay. Like D'leedon. Have been getting calls from agents saying other developers are also willing to give extra discounts. And these are genuine discounts, because these are for projects I am familiar with. To say that CM7 will have no impact is hoping against hope. As Economist says, such comments are more vociferous than before previous CM. So are there some deep seated doubts lurking underneath?

The ones to look out are those which did not sell out before CM7. They are a little panicky right now... I feel..

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:30
Well, the situation of the middle class in Singapore is also a bit different than other advanced economies. I do not know to call it a blessing or was it an unintentional policy which in actual fact protected us all from any external shocks.

You see, in overseas economies, the jobs are provided by domestic companies. But here in Singapore, we have globalised companies which pledge no allegience to any government. They are concerned only with efficiency and professionalism of a workforce. And because of our kiasu educational system, our middle class are mostly professional managers who lies above the retenchment axe in the event of any external shocks.

Unlike in USA, where you have this same group of middle class deeply rooted in self run small/home businesses. That is the spirit they have, but unfortunately works no magic in our current crisis as their income is directly affected by their domestic economy. Our middle class is different, they lies just above the axe and that explains why in the past 2 financial crisis, we managed to tide over steadily and engraved a great track record for us. This track record signals we are going to tide over many times. This is not my view, but the views of many CEOs of globalised MNCs.

Because of all the previous USA QEs added together, the global banks are now hoarding massive cash reserves. However, these banks cannot simply park their cash for too long, they must make their cash works. And how to make the cash work is through giving loans.

Unfortunately, they are only lending to low risks individuals or big businesses for expansion and not high risk entities. They will only lend to MNCs, well known brand names, and Singaporean. Yes, you heard it right, Singaporean !

the US has 3 past records of resetting her debt. in the 1930 there is no hyperinflation during the great depression because US dollar was not a fiat currency. after 1950 all that changed and now every currency is a fiat currency. is this ur fear? Thread Starter ? u feared what keynesia said abt his monetary policy before he died that " we will all be dead by then" is this ur fear? tell me brother.

isit u fear about the fake boom coming after the US election? is it ? that US will start to re absorb all her currency back and therefore creating another interest rate hike to 23% like during Regean's time? is this ur fear?

tell me ur fear, my third eye will enlighten u, brother

the time will come. the key is the signal. and my fourth eye knows when. tell me ur fear leh

isit, brother economist, u worried abt the effects of qe which is hyperinflation? ur fear is not unfounded, we are all in that red alert zone now, this is the effect of qe we are experiencing. isit something u know that is better than my fourth eye, brother? tell me n i will enlighten u.

isit u believe they can know better than me, who is from the Darkside?

wohahahhahahhahahahhhhhhehhehehehehehhe

Leeds
21-01-13, 10:30
There are 2 types of people here. There are end users and also investors. For investor like myself, constantly testing my investment theory in this forum. I also delighted at people who has opposing view. I am sure there are big players in the industry at this forum. The more extreme the view the better for me, so we can anticipate every possible outcomes. Looking forward to your kind contributions.


That's a very gracious post. Thanks.

Indeed indomie is one vested investor who respect opposing views. My engagement with him this far has been enriching. It has been a joy engaging with him. This is what a healthy forum should be.

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:31
I am the Elite of the Elites,
The Master from the Darkside.
I have many names,
Illuminati, Blackjack21, the Third Eye, and the
Shadow.

brother... u scared or not leh?

woahahahhhehehehe

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:33
I am the Elite of the Elites,
The Master from the Darkside.
I have many names,
Illuminati, Blackjack21, the Third Eye, and the
Shadow.

brother... u scared or not leh?

woahahahhhehehehe

ALL BILLIONAIRES ARE UNDER MY COMMAND.

When I hail left, they dare not go right.

WOAHAHAHAHAHHHEHHEHEH

nav14
21-01-13, 10:33
The seasoned investors are not going to get jittery as long as interest rates remain below 4% and the world economy is stable.
They know the govt is not engineering a crash but trying very hard to stabilise the market and the CMs will be reversed at the first sign of prices falling more than 10%.
The serious long term investors will welcome a slight fall in prices as they know it is good for the long term health of the property market.

cnud
21-01-13, 10:34
The seasoned investors are not going to get jittery as long as interest rates remain below 4% and the world economy is stable.
They know the govt is not engineering a crash but trying very hard to stabilise the market and the CMs will be reversed at the first sign of prices falling more than 10%.
The serious long term investors will welcome a slight fall in prices as they know it is good for the long term health of the property market.

We may not dare to go in when it suddenly drops 10%.

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:35
The seasoned investors are not going to get jittery as long as interest rates remain below 4% and the world economy is stable.
They know the govt is not engineering a crash but trying very hard to stabilise the market and the CMs will be reversed at the first sign of prices falling more than 10%.
The serious long term investors will welcome a slight fall in prices as they know it is good for the long term health of the property market.

Now yes, you are one certain enlightened being:) I totally agree with you from my heart. Well said :)

DaytonaSS
21-01-13, 10:36
Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

In theory only, today resale market must be dead quiet. As a buyers, its clear that buying from developer is much more easier and is much easier on the pocket with the discount galore! Its also more sexy in walk in swanky showroom.

As for buyers, the first time buyers are coming out in Doves for qbay to grab the discounts. These are the only type of buyers left .

Look out for white paper coming out soon, it will provide some injection of confidence to confirm the signals LTA had give by announcing the 15 years mrt expansion plan.

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:37
watch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TUMxDhEZB4

august
21-01-13, 10:37
These is no denial that property prices are will be affected by CM7. However, it is still too early to tell the impact. It may take abt 6 mths to see the real effects of the CM7.

What we can see now is that developers are already absobing the 7%, effectively prices has drop by 7% for those who bought last month.

it just means developer has marked up by 7 to 10% and then give buyers a "feel good" 7% discount. :o

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:39
watch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TUMxDhEZB4

Dear good brothers,

It is good that you have doubts about any policy. This is good. Although I am not qualified to explain to you, let me be the handsome man thick skin enough to answer you.

Good brothers,

Policing the real estate of any capitalist country is never easy, because there exist an unholy alliance between the banks and real estate. This is because property prices are heavily influenced by financial activities like liquidity and loans. Financial activities are heavily influenced in turn by property construction or development.

But one thing I do know about policing the property markets is that it is the most complicated process of a country as it involves the quality of life, the banks, the GDPs, economic activities, forex, foreign investments, hot money, hedge funds, stock markets and ultimately a substainable growth of a nation.

It is never easy. In fact, it is easier to police Cooling Measures within a heated property market, than to try to re-inflate or stimulate a crashed property market. One very good recent example is the US property market crash in 2007. After 6 years, they are still trying to revive the market.

We are a very young nation. This country is still younger than many of us (70% of us are aged between 15-64 years old ) .I for one, is merely 3 years younger than Singapore.

For a young nation to make such economic progress within 47 years is really remarkable. As a matter of fact, we already well surpassed many developed economies in the World. One then wonders, what makes Singapore tick where others failed.

Look for Substainable and Resilient Growth with Self-Discipline Risk Taking, as I always hinted to my business brothers.

Laguna
21-01-13, 10:39
My friend bot a condo unit at River Valley yesterday. In fact, they started viewing before CM6.

Their calculation :
Inflation is 4.5% a year, it will stay high, how to fight with this inflation?
Interest rate low, and remain low.

How they do?
transfer the name of the only private propperty as single owner, pay only 3% of the half portion (subject to confirmation from lawyer)

buy the second property under the other's name as first property and still taking 80% loan.

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:40
Singapore HDB policy is Santa Claus Policy.

"What? Am I hearing this correctly," many young bothers and sisters now wondering if I am now typing from the IMH ( Institute of Mental Health).

Let me explain before you jump to any conclusion.

A NEW HDB gave the buyer an UNFAIR ADVANTAGE over the rest of the market segments. How so?

Because it is a very Heavily Subsidised Investment. So UNFAIR that your humble brother sometimes imagine the HDB to be headed by Santa Claus giving away free monies !

The construction costs itself for a single unit already well surpassed the price each citizen pay for a new HDB. Let alone if we were to take into consideration infrastructural costs or intangible benefits like lift lobby, carparks, gardens, public facillities like libraries and shopping malls.

To add to this ridiculous charitable act, the Singapore Government actually built MRT stations ( or MTR as known in Hong Kong, or Subways as known in angmo cities ) and light rails system within walking distance of the new projects.

Not surprisingly, the new HDB or new EC are always closer to MRT stations than the private condos. There is only one exception in the Lion City and that is ION Orchard.

What were they thinking? Unlike the Minister who spent countless sleepless nights thinking about how to curb the sizzling hot Singapore property market; your humble brother here spent countless sleepless nights wondering if HDB is really headed by Santa Claus.

Where on this Planet's developed cities can you find a new 900sqft 3 bedder apartment selling for less than S$500,000? If you convert that into British Pound or Swiss Franc, it looked even more ridiculous!

Indeed, HDB is giving you free monies- albeit not in the form of hard cold cash, but in a form of market asset value which eventually you can choose to convert into cash if you want to.

A quick mental work by your humble brother, for each new HDB unit, the buyer stands to gain at least S$20,000 from the construction costs, and at least an additional S$80,000 if you compare a similar sized HDB resale unit.

A new BTO investment of about S$300,000 would be worth around S$400,000 if put into the resale market after complying the minimum occupation period. And that is just conservatively calculating.

Then, for those uncles and aunties who bought their Marine Parade New HDB for less than S$100,000 20 years ago, it became even more ridiculous when a recent unit there was sold for a COLD HARD S$1,000,000.

Now, if we even take a high inflation modal rate of 5% annually for 20 years, the uncles and aunties still stand to gain more than S$700,000 in present value terms !


NOW YOU GET IT?

Well, if you are a young investor with little capital, you should try to get married and then ballot for Executive Condo, BTO or HDB. Then, get a loan from HDB or bank to service your asset.

Getting a HDB immediately after your marriage will have gotten you started a few hundred meters ahead from the rest of your peers in the long property investment marathon.

PAP government is on the right track, dun be brainwashed by the Internet forums.

see what my mentor said:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7D3_eGaO5k


HDB Policy is also my Grandmother's Policy.

"You can't be serious," I heard young punks saying this infront of their iPhones to me again.

Read My Lips: HDB POLICY IS MY GRANDMOTHER'S POLICY !

wow...that was just scary man......before you tell on me and get me to lim kopi, let me quickly tell you a story:

Only a few brothers and sisters here are aware, I got to where I am today because I was born with a silver spoon. Or... I was born into a disgustingly rich family la. But anyway, that's another story.

You see, I got a head start in property investment using a S$500,000 seed money given by my 100 years old grandmother on my 19th birthday la. ( Very paiseh...I play cheat la.....WOAHAHAHEHHEHEHEHEH )

However, all is not lost! The roads to Rome are all different, but the destination is the same, my good young brothers and sisters.

"I feel like smashing his face," indeed, my third eye heard you !

Anyway, before you got all angry...listen to me for a sec.

When you buy a HDB, the subsidised rate they gave you, is.......

JUST LIKE THE SEED MONEY MY GRANDMOTHER GAVE ME !


BINGO! Now you believe that I am an enlightened being with a THIRD EYE liao bo?

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:41
My friend bot a condo unit at River Valley yesterday. In fact, they started viewing before CM6.

Their calculation :
Inflation is 4.5% a year, it will stay high, how to fight with this inflation?
Interest rate low, and remain low.


Your friend is so smart ! Here's WHY:

When you buy a Singapore property, you BUY with it the following:

1) Citizen Security provided by Government

2) Asset Security provided by Singaporean Banks

3) Health Security provided by Healthcare Service

4) Currency Security provided by MAS

5) Future Security provided by Singaporean Schools

6) Employment Security by Singaporean Businesses & MNCs

7) Social Security by Enforcement Agents

8) Time Security by Efficient Statutory Boards

9) Hedging against Natural Events like disasters

10) Hedging against Global Currency Risks

11) Hedging against commodity risks like Gold

12) Hedging against Water Crisis by New-water

nav14
21-01-13, 10:42
Ditto Economist views. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines, waiting to come in only if there is cut in prices. Some developers have already blinked. Like Q Bay. Like D'leedon. Have been getting calls from agents saying other developers are also willing to give extra discounts. And these are genuine discounts, because these are for projects I am familiar with. To say that CM7 will have no impact is hoping against hope. As Economist says, such comments are more vociferous than before previous CM. So are there some deep seated doubts lurking underneath?

I will ignore the discounts given by Qbay and D'Leedon. While other projects were getting sold off within days, D'Leedon has been struggling in their sales for quite some time abd it would have given that additional discount even if there was no CM7. For Qbay were the initial prices reasonable in the first place ?
We will get a clearer picture in about 3 months time. Premature to start claiming that CM7 already had its effect. We have gone through this before. It might eventually have an impact but these 2 projects are poor examples.

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:45
Which Government on planet Earth will give you a TOTALLY NEW REPLACEMENT FLAT when they need to use your OLD and USELESS HDB ?

Which Government on planet Earth will allow you to take out equity from your HDB lease when you are OLD and NOBODY wants your old flat anymore?


Which Government?

ANSWER: Only in Singapore can you find this Government.

Which bank in Singapore dare to behave like the angmo banksters?

Which bank ?

Answer: You cannot find one single Singaporean bank like that, and they will also guarantee your deposits.

I predict with MY THIRD EYE, MASSIVE FOREIGN FUNDS WILL START TO FLOOD OUR SINGAPOREAN BANKS by MARCH 2013.



Place your BETS !

Remain outside the Lion City and watch your money become a SITTING DUCK, or GRAB A STAKE here and sleep soundly every night !


I hope they upgraded their IT system liao la.



I predict, with my THIRD EYE, that:

Global Investors in flocks and flocks of flying machines, under the guise of Tourists, WILL JAMPACK our ONLY Airport by JUNE !

Place your bets !

Put your wealth in SAFE LIONS PAWS or put them in the SHAKY AND SWEATY CLAWS !

Doom
21-01-13, 10:52
Point taken. While premature to say that CM7 has significant impact, it is also premature to predict that CM7 will have no impact. Which is actually the essence of the message being made here. Besides the 2 projects mentioned - for The Sennett, developer is getting cold feet and will definitely NOT launch at the prices they were firm on BEFORE CM7. Same with Bartley Ridge, which (from my sources) will now be launched at same (or slightly below) Bartley Residence prices. So there are other concrete examples. One project I am eyeing at District 12 is also giving extra 4% discount . . . the list goes on . . . while premature to say what impact CM7 will have eventually, it is starting to have some sting . . .

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:58
RECESSION? FISCAL CLIFF ? ECONOMIC COLLAPSE ? ......

SO ?

I recalled back during 1978-1997 in my grandmother's jewellery factory, the same shouting had been going on for donkey years by our business friends. They shouted in 1978 until in 1990 when we finally bought our own buildings.

http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/Copyof14220003_zps62890b78.jpg


After we bought our buildings, the prices continue to climb and climb until in 1997, when interest rates edged up to 9%. Property prices dropped indeed, but never to the prices we paid.

Drop in Singapore property can only come when interest rates reach 12% or above. But interest rate at the moment is:IN American JAIL la.

BTW, brothers here can recall how many recessions between 1978-1997? I was too young to remember. :P


1978, Uncle Larry, our business friend to my uncle:

" wah...property prices drop liao hor? next year will be worse."

1985 Uncle Larry: " wah..recession hor, property markets cham liao lor."

1990 Grandma bought our first Freehold 7 storey Industrial Building for S$7million.

1992 Uncle Larry:" wah recession hor, property drop liao lor ."
Bank valued the Industrial building at S$12million. We bought our second Office Building in Orchard for S$20million.

1994 Uncle Larry:" wah...property price drop liao hor."
industrial Building: S$18million
Office Building : S$25million

1996 Uncle Larry: " wah...si liao hor...recession coming ."
Industrial Building: S$22million
Office Building S$50million

1997 Uncle Larry:" FINANCIAL CRISIS LAI LIAO LOR...SI LIAO ARH ! PROPERTY CRASH BIG TIME."
Both valuation stagnant

2011 Uncle Larry passed away.
Industrial Building: S$140million
Office Building: S$225million

HE DIED ALREADY MY GRANDMA STILL HAVEN'T DIE ARH WOAHAHAHAHAHA

I haven't even start to tell you about our Hong Kong properties.


and of course, our long term property holding strategy does not work in all economies. Only economies with the following trait will enjoy the unstoppable rise in asset appreciation:

1) GOOD GOVERNANCE ( Well managed economy by government ) that ensure continual city and urban redevelopment and advancement.

2) PROPERTIES ARE BOUGHT by a Fully employment population ( In US recent crash, the property crash resulted from properties bought by many unemployed or low income population )

3) TINY ( AS reminded by brother3C)

even with a major recession. i doubt Singapore property will drop. maybe no price increase or just drop a little. the demographic of the current buyers just show that they are not uneducated and ill informed like last time.

last time, there were just one segment ( indonesian and singaporean) of the population in the market. now, there are many segments ( prcs, indians, etc ) of the population staking in property here now.


to crash the market. u need to increase interest rates to 12 % which i doubt anyone dare to do it, since big brother already warned the rest of the world liao. those rebellious ones all kena sued one by one u can see not?


interest rate will only go up when liquidity in the system subsided. or when usa makan back all her us$. at present moment, she will not risk that for the middle class. because that will cause a major inflation in the US and destabilises the forex. i bet on the brother with the biggest gun.


brothers and sisters here noticed something? That when USA prints, nobody dare not to print especially Japan. This is to make up for the exchange rates difference and to stabilise domestic currency and interest rates. There are however, a few exceptional economies, for example, that will not print:

1) Singapore
2) Hong Kong
3) China ( China is being watched by USA, so she cannot any-o-how print)
4) Germany
5) Swiss
6) England
7) European Union

brothers and sisters know why? Well, the answer is simple. The first 5 economies have low unemployment rates EXCEPT for item (7).

if an economy has high unemployment rates, and you do not print, it will mean prices will go up. This includes social welfare costs will also go up. And see what happened to Greece when it is pegged to Euro?Of course it is no fault of Greece since her currency is Euro and not under her control.


And if you dun print, what happens?

So clever: ANS: INFLATION.


And if you have high unemployment and still dun print what happens?

So clever again !

ANS: GREECE.


And if you print and print like USA, what happens?

ANS: You will need to take care of the REVENUE side which is either:

a) Do away with welfare and risk rebellions.

b) Tax the rich and make Skywalker happy.


And that is exactly what Obama is trying to do now, to take care of the REVENUE side and you know what is so unique about Singapore CCR properties, OCR Condos or HDBs in all districts (except I explained before, ONLY LANDED WILL DROP)that I am so confident that prices will not drop?

HINT: No, nothing to do with inflation, safe haven or strong GDP. something else, so obvious that even the professors,analysts,bankers, stock brokers,property developers, world leaders and phds in economics CAN miss it when it is staring right in their faces.

I will share with you this in this forum later :)



WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

sh
21-01-13, 11:06
Don't have to wait for 3 months, just observe how many buyers (bought before announcement) not exercising their options in the next few weeks.

The real desperate people will be the agents. we all agree that volume will take a severe hit. Will desperate agents off-load their properties?

sherlock
21-01-13, 11:07
I do read this forum almost everyday and I find most of the forummers helpful and kind.

There are always 2 sides of the coin (or views in this aspect) so take the views and comments with a pinch of salt :tsk-tsk: If one has a crystal ball he wont be here already... :cool:

I am vested but I am also ok if prices do drop. Isnt this what the eco-system is all about? Who wants to sell if the graph is a straight line up?

Leeds
21-01-13, 11:15
I do read this forum almost everyday and I find most of the forummers helpful and kind.

There are always 2 sides of the coin (or views in this aspect) so take the views and comments with a pinch of salt :tsk-tsk: If one has a crystal ball he wont be here already... :cool:

I am vested but I am also ok if prices do drop. Isnt this what the eco-system is all about? Who wants to sell if the graph is a straight line up?

Absolutely!

I like what you said: "Who wants to sell if the graph is a straight line up?".

economist
21-01-13, 11:18
to blackjack21, or the third eye, bro, a lot of your post is on macro economy, or singing the virtue of Singapore. The conclusion I draw from your post is: you are doubtless a true Singaporean proud of Singapore, same as many of my friends from many other cities of other countries who think of their cities as the best in the world and look down upon Singapore as a smallish, non-competitive and volatile. I don't usually argue with them or defend Singapore, as I know everyone loves his own countries/cities. The point I want to make is, your posts don't seem too relevant.

btw, I hear a lot of similar says from agents, almost identical to what you said, for a few years already. Sorry, no offense, just an observation.

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 11:19
Absolutely!

I like what you said: "Who wants to sell if the graph is a straight line up?".

well, you are very bias. I wrote tons and you never praise me. this guy wrote like less than 1 paragraph and you praised him :(

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 11:20
to blackjack21, or the third eye, bro, a lot of your post is on macro economy, or singing the virtue of Singapore. The conclusion I draw from your post is: you are doubtless a true Singaporean proud of Singapore, same as many of my friends from many other cities of other countries who think of their cities as the best in the world and look down upon Singapore as a smallish, non-competitive and volatile. I don't usually argue with them or defend Singapore, as I know everyone loves his own countries/cities. The point I want to make is, your posts don't seem too relevant.

btw, I hear a lot of similar says from agents, almost identical to what you said, for a few years already. Sorry, no offense, just an observation.

Thanks bro ! You praise me like that I very happy leh. I not offended la. This is what a forum is for, dun you think? To advance our knowledge through various viewpoints :)

as for the agents, of course you hear what I wrote. they are trained by me mah.WOAHHAHAHAHHAHHEHEHH

economist
21-01-13, 11:23
May not be straight line anymore after CM7. History may not repeat itself. Complacency is the biggest enemy.


Absolutely!

I like what you said: "Who wants to sell if the graph is a straight line up?".

economist
21-01-13, 11:26
:-) sorry i couldn't reply all your posts as you posted too fast, i have to attend to my other jobs. btw, i'm not new here as your other post said, i have been reading this forum for years.


Thanks bro ! You praise me like that I very happy leh. I not offended la. This is what a forum is for, dun you think? To advance our knowledge through various viewpoints :)

as for the agents, of course you hear what I wrote. they are trained by me mah.WOAHHAHAHAHHAHHEHEHH

Rysk
21-01-13, 11:27
Having been a long time silent observer of this forum,...

I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

1. Why you need to be a silent observer for so so long.. right from CM 1 till CM 6.. then finally after CM7 come out & talk :rolleyes:

2. You have noticed not many sellers yet you are saying now sellers are desperate :banghead:

And you reminds me of one person called TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT MR B :D

economist
21-01-13, 11:29
lol, no conspiracy theory, please :-). I already answered your questions in the first page of this thread, the third post.


1. Why you need to be a silent observer for so so long.. right from CM 1 till CM 6.. then finally after CM7 come out & talk :rolleyes:

2. You have noticed not many sellers yet you are saying now sellers are desperate :banghead:

And you reminds me of one person called TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT MR B :D

pentium
21-01-13, 11:33
Should we propose to MND to implement capital gain tax and hike in rental imcome tax, since so much hot money coming to singapore? If successfully implemented, our government make tons of money, simultaneously cooling the market , as well as postpone any GST hikes. In the long run, everyone benefits from those exploiting the loopholes :D

Rysk
21-01-13, 11:34
lol, no conspiracy theory, please :-). I already answered your questions in the first page of this thread, the third post.

I saw that.. It was a "quick twist & turn" from the 1st post.. well done :D

Ricade
21-01-13, 11:34
May not be straight line anymore after CM7. History may not repeat itself. Complacency is the biggest enemy.

bro economist,

i think you are considering the viewpoint only from the perspective of a property buyer / investor.

have you ever considered what could be the viewpoint of the singapore government? Maybe one needs to expand their horizon, which government in the world (in their right mind) would want to dampen its own market for the sake of ruin? Ok unless their bureaucracy is corrupted.. bad.. only care for their own gain. Do you see that the Singapore government is as such?

PAP / Singapore has been building up a brand ever since it became independent from colonial and Malaya rule.. With meticulous, dedicated planning, and great foresight they have build up the brand to be what it is today.

Perhaps if you see beyond direct effect of the cooling measures on the borderline buyers, do you think that the government has run out of ideas to further support the local property market?

check out the sunday times on 20th January 2013.. about that Sri Lankan business owner -> is he looking for property to buy in Singapore now? even with CM7? one can only wonder why.. ;)

PS: I want to thank sifu Blackjack21 for his great contribution.. wan sui wan sui!

Laguna
21-01-13, 11:36
Should we propose to MND to implement capital gain tax and hike in rental imcome tax, since so much hot money coming to singapore? If successfully implemented, our government make tons of money, simultaneously cooling the market , as well as postpone any GST hikes. In the long run, everyone benefits from those exploiting the loopholes :D

Do u know what is seller stamp duty?

windcar
21-01-13, 11:37
CM7 does have a negative impact on CCR properties and the price gap between CCR and OCR will narrow even further. Almost all CMs affects properties as an investment more than ordinary home upgraders.

Rysk
21-01-13, 11:37
That's right, the 7% and 10% has really turned off many of the potential buyers.

I didn't mean owners are desperately selling, I meant some of them are desperately posting here to defend their rhetoric theory, I did't actually want to post until I saw a thread today which almost made me laugh. Yes, sellers will not panic sell, supply will actually be reduced, what matters is that demand will be reduced much more than that!! As a result, more likely than not, residential prices will drop.

Your explanation that the price will drop.. really "made me laugh" till I cannot tahan :D

sherlock
21-01-13, 11:39
well, you are very bias. I wrote tons and you never praise me. this guy wrote like less than 1 paragraph and you praised him :(
I've also been reading your nice posts though never say anything. ;)

sherlock
21-01-13, 11:40
Do u know what is seller stamp duty?
This one no gains also kena taxed! albeit for 4 yrs :rolleyes:

Laguna
21-01-13, 11:41
I've also been reading your nice posts though never say anything. ;)

well, BJ21T wants u to write something good, big and red red on him lah!

do something, and make him happy

pentium
21-01-13, 11:41
Do u know what is seller stamp duty?


Capital gains tax is different from seller stamp duties. Its an additional taxation for profits made , selling stamp duties is fixed amt whether you made or lose money. When combine, its very powderful measures to curb speculations

Rysk
21-01-13, 11:41
I've also been reading your nice posts though never say anything. ;)

So you are another "silent observer"?? :D

sherlock
21-01-13, 11:43
well, BJ21T wants u to write something good, big and red red on him lah!

do something, and make him happy
Hmmm... must call mcmlixxiv or carbuncle! :eek:

sherlock
21-01-13, 11:46
So you are another "silent observer"?? :D
Today i quite `talkative'... 5 posts in 1 morning. A record!

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 11:49
I've also been reading your nice posts though never say anything. ;)

thanks bro, u r a true bro indeed like many brothers and sisters here :)

economist
21-01-13, 11:51
The last round ABSD had this effect on foreigner:
"foreigners who were not Singapore PRs accounted for just 6.2 per cent of the 23,312 caveats lodged for private homes excluding executive condos in the first nine months (2012) - down from their 17.5 per cent share in full-year 2011."

So why are we still talking about foreigners flocking into Singapore? There was perhaps a little increase of the percentage in 4Q2012, but with the new ABSD, the percentage of foreign buyers is going to stay low for a considerable amount of time...


bro economist,

check out the sunday times on 20th January 2013.. about that Sri Lankan business owner -> is he looking for property to buy in Singapore now? even with CM7? one can only wonder why.. ;)

PS: I want to thank sifu Blackjack21 for his great contribution.. wan sui wan sui!

samuelk
21-01-13, 11:51
Well, the situation of the middle class in Singapore is also a bit different than other advanced economies. I do not know to call it a blessing or was it an unintentional policy which in actual fact protected us all from any external shocks.

You see, in overseas economies, the jobs are provided by domestic companies. But here in Singapore, we have globalised companies which pledge no allegience to any government. They are concerned only with efficiency and professionalism of a workforce. And because of our kiasu educational system, our middle class are mostly professional managers who lies above the retenchment axe in the event of any external shocks.

Unlike in USA, where you have this same group of middle class deeply rooted in self run small/home businesses. That is the spirit they have, but unfortunately works no magic in our current crisis as their income is directly affected by their domestic economy. Our middle class is different, they lies just above the axe and that explains why in the past 2 financial crisis, we managed to tide over steadily and engraved a great track record for us. This track record signals we are going to tide over many times. This is not my view, but the views of many CEOs of globalised MNCs.

Because of all the previous USA QEs added together, the global banks are now hoarding massive cash reserves. However, these banks cannot simply park their cash for too long, they must make their cash works. And how to make the cash work is through giving loans.

Unfortunately, they are only lending to low risks individuals or big businesses for expansion and not high risk entities. They will only lend to MNCs, well known brand names, and Singaporean. Yes, you heard it right, Singaporean !

the US has 3 past records of resetting her debt. in the 1930 there is no hyperinflation during the great depression because US dollar was not a fiat currency. after 1950 all that changed and now every currency is a fiat currency. is this ur fear? Thread Starter ? u feared what keynesia said abt his monetary policy before he died that " we will all be dead by then" is this ur fear? tell me brother.

isit u fear about the fake boom coming after the US election? is it ? that US will start to re absorb all her currency back and therefore creating another interest rate hike to 23% like during Regean's time? is this ur fear?

tell me ur fear, my third eye will enlighten u, brother

the time will come. the key is the signal. and my fourth eye knows when. tell me ur fear leh

isit, brother economist, u worried abt the effects of qe which is hyperinflation? ur fear is not unfounded, we are all in that red alert zone now, this is the effect of qe we are experiencing. isit something u know that is better than my fourth eye, brother? tell me n i will enlighten u.

isit u believe they can know better than me, who is from the Darkside?

wohahahhahahhahahahhhhhhehhehehehehehhe
I have to disagree with you. While it is true that we have a disipliine work force, the banks n the financial industry has very few singaporean work force.

but that's good in a way because it boost rental returns no?

not really because now even the FT finds buying cheaper then renting.

jeaprp
21-01-13, 12:00
Capital gains tax is different from seller stamp duties. Its an additional taxation for profits made , selling stamp duties is fixed amt whether you made or lose money. When combine, its very powderful measures to curb speculations
combination of both, won't not only curb speculation.
It will crash the mkt also. haha:cool:
don;t think they want that to happen
As it stands now, think short term investor are out of this game

Ricade
21-01-13, 12:00
The last round ABSD had this effect on foreigner:
"foreigners who were not Singapore PRs accounted for just 6.2 per cent of the 23,312 caveats lodged for private homes excluding executive condos in the first nine months (2012) - down from their 17.5 per cent share in full-year 2011."

So why are we still talking about foreigners flocking into Singapore? There was perhaps a little increase of the percentage in 4Q2012, but with the new ABSD, the percentage of foreign buyers is going to stay low for a considerable amount of time...

bro.. u are still missing the point here. try to forget about the CM and all the negativity for a while.. and consider.

Mentor BJ21 already explain that the next world superweapon is not the nuclear bomb, or some new chemical weapon. it is BRAINPOWER and TALENT! :):)

Now.. do you think our government has been doing a pretty good job with the local singaporeans in that aspect? Now for the next part.. our government has yet to unleash their efforts in bringing in top talents into singapore.. that will come, or already happening in the background.. why do you think this Sri Lankan guy is now staying in SG, renting top floor at D1 currently.. and wanting to buy SG property in the near future? A few have come before him.. gong li, jet li, eduardo saverin, jim rogers..

have faith ;)

jeaprp
21-01-13, 12:05
The last round ABSD had this effect on foreigner:
"foreigners who were not Singapore PRs accounted for just 6.2 per cent of the 23,312 caveats lodged for private homes excluding executive condos in the first nine months (2012) - down from their 17.5 per cent share in full-year 2011."

So why are we still talking about foreigners flocking into Singapore? There was perhaps a little increase of the percentage in 4Q2012, but with the new ABSD, the percentage of foreign buyers is going to stay low for a considerable amount of time...

this cm7 can at least give SG first timer and upgrader a window to buy
their first prop.:cool:
otherwise with the high prices , no way can they buy.
I just hope the mkt will not collapse with this cm, sign:doh:

RCT
21-01-13, 12:09
What super weapon.. All war is won with money.. Since thousand years ago, chinese already know that...三军未动,粮草先行.

Shanhz
21-01-13, 12:21
i notice alot of newly registered users in this post. all jan 2013. all dual or triple personalities?

proud owner
21-01-13, 12:23
I think TS is a newbie to the cyber world. I have been in the Internet property forums since like 2006. WOAAHAHEHEHEHEHHEHEHEH


he has been a silent reader ....for a long time ... according to him/her.

but has decided to join in this month

welcome welcome welkommen

Ricade
21-01-13, 12:26
What super weapon.. All war is won with money.. Since thousand years ago, chinese already know that...三军未动,粮草先行.

yes and that is also why, we must all trust the gahmen.. how can they build this small little red dot with nothing, and turn it into the modern city today with no consideration whatsoever for the big $$$$$$$$$$?????

more than you or me, more than property investors.. the gahmen is the one raking in all the big $$$$ :) thats why.. try to think macro and appreciate the value of the singapore brand.

taught to all the forummers here by mentor BJ21 - cheers! :cheers4:

proud owner
21-01-13, 12:32
well, you are very bias. I wrote tons and you never praise me. this guy wrote like less than 1 paragraph and you praised him :(



hahahhahhahhahahhah

bro BJ21T

you are really funny

i think i would like you very much if you are a personal friend

proud owner
21-01-13, 12:43
this cm7 can at least give SG first timer and upgrader a window to buy
their first prop.:cool:
otherwise with the high prices , no way can they buy.
I just hope the mkt will not collapse with this cm, sign:doh:

i agree

this CM7 basically tie up the hands and legs of those who already have 2 or more props and have some $ to buy another

this CM7 is to give first timer a window to buy ...and stop complaining ...

once the gate is opened to achieve 7 mio population ...this window will close .. cos these new comers will buy up more than there is available ..

so first timer ..better take this opportunity to buy from desperate developers who are giving discounts and from weak prop owners who arent too ambitious in their selling price...

radha08
21-01-13, 12:45
i notice alot of newly registered users in this post. all jan 2013. all dual or triple personalities?

i waiting for radha09 radha10...:D :D :D

rockinsg
21-01-13, 12:45
this cm7 can at least give SG first timer and upgrader a window to buy
their first prop.:cool:
otherwise with the high prices , no way can they buy.
I just hope the mkt will not collapse with this cm, sign:doh:
Exactly, this is a very small window of opportunity to buy. With 5% inflation after a year govt might accept 5% rise as natural rise.
But as always many people will miss this boat too thinking they can get price at 7% Less.
There are plenty of PRs and foreigners looking to buy as soon as CM are lifted they will come back.
Missed the boat will stay missed the boat cause they can't except the fact that all govt want is to stablize market. By a years time current process would be considered as reasonable by govt too.

radha08
21-01-13, 12:46
well, you are very bias. I wrote tons and you never praise me. this guy wrote like less than 1 paragraph and you praised him :(

i like ur post bro super long winded but funny...:D :D :D ...nil sine labore:)

jeaprp
21-01-13, 13:00
i agree

this CM7 basically tie up the hands and legs of those who already have 2 or more props and have some $ to buy another

this CM7 is to give first timer a window to buy ...and stop complaining ...

once the gate is opened to achieve 7 mio population ...this window will close .. cos these new comers will buy up more than there is available ..

so first timer ..better take this opportunity to buy from desperate developers who are giving discounts and from weak prop owners who arent too ambitious in their selling price...

Hi, what's yr take on this window?
3-6 mths, 20% drop in price?
CM8 or stabilise.
My take is 20% before buyers start biting again
I doubt they will remove the CM:cool:

rockinsg
21-01-13, 13:03
Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

Also you failed to mention why owners are desperate?
Cause interest rate are so low?
Cause rental is still strong?
Cause govt making more mrt?
Cause govt release population figures of 7m?

Without any backing and few properties you know of, you are sounding like mr B doomsday man.
Would we nice to hear from you what situation owner was in, that you concluded them desperate?

rockinsg
21-01-13, 13:12
Hi, what's yr take on this window?
3-6 mths, 20% drop in price?
CM8 or stabilise.
My take is 20% before buyers start biting again
I doubt they will remove the CM:cool:
With 80% ownership ? Go and ask how many People want prices to drop by 20%.
You think govt is stupid or trying to lose next election?
My take is +/- 5-10% before govt start removing or adding CMs.

proud owner
21-01-13, 13:18
Hi, what's yr take on this window?
3-6 mths, 20% drop in price?
CM8 or stabilise.
My take is 20% before buyers start biting again
I doubt they will remove the CM:cool:




3-6 mths mkt will stagnate ...to slight down ...max 15 %

if u do see a 15 0r 20 % discount ...it may not mean mkt is falling... simply developer is taking less profit ...

if u are first timer or upgrader ...this is a good time to go shopping


i have this funny thought suddenly ..

if one walks into a showroom today and sign in with a HDB address ... one may be treated like King ...

while another who sign in with a condo address ...hhhmmm agent may think you are coming in just to check around and have no intention to buy

:doh:

jeaprp
21-01-13, 13:18
With 80% ownership ? Go and ask how many People want prices to drop by 20%.
You think govt is stupid or trying to lose next election?
My take is +/- 5-10% before govt start removing or adding CMs.

Q'bay 22% discount, d'Leedon 15% discount, FEO various project, -4%:cool:

jeaprp
21-01-13, 13:22
3-6 mths mkt will stagnate ...to slight down ...max 15 %

if u do see a 15 0r 20 % discount ...it may not mean mkt is falling... simply developer is taking less profit ...

if u are first timer or upgrader ...this is a good time to go shopping


i have this funny thought suddenly ..

if one walks into a showroom today and sign in with a HDB address ... one may be treated like King ...

while another who sign in with a condo address ...hhhmmm agent may think you are coming in just to check around and have no intention to buy

:doh:

Agreed. But the earlier buyer lost 15%-20% compare to those buying now:cool:. they just got screwed by the developers.
Volume will really slow down after this grp of first timer

economist
21-01-13, 13:23
Think I mentioned already that drop in demand would be larger than drop in supply. Owners are not yet desperate in selling, but they will first start being desperate in posting to support each other, singing the repetitive songs like "this CM is just like the previous one, don't worry", "oh, yes, i like your post", "i will hold my property tight tight", sort of mentally supporting each other...


Also you failed to mention why owners are desperate?

proud owner
21-01-13, 13:27
Agreed. But the earlier buyer lost 15%-20% compare to those buying now:cool:. they just got screwed by the developers.
Volume will really slow down after this grp of first timer


this is a lesson to all ....

doesnt mean D10 will be sold out
doesnt mean famous architect will be sold out
doesnt mean famous developer will be sold out

such a big plot ... LH ... selling at same PSF as nearby FH ...
buyers ought to do their home work instead of following the ass of the wilderbeest in front during a migration

proud owner
21-01-13, 13:29
this is a lesson to all ....

doesnt mean D10 will be sold out
doesnt mean famous architect will be sold out
doesnt mean famous developer will be sold out

such a big plot ... LH ... selling at same PSF as nearby FH ...
buyers ought to do their home work instead of following the ass of the wilderbeest in front during a migration

then again after all these discounts ... the eventual PSF may be more justifiable ...

jeaprp
21-01-13, 13:37
Think I mentioned already that drop in demand would be larger than drop in supply. Owners are not yet desperate in selling, but they will first start being desperate in posting to support each other, singing the repetitive songs like "this CM is just like the previous one, don't worry", "oh, yes, i like your post", "i will hold my property tight tight", sort of mentally supporting each other...

With the whit paper research from DBS, 7m population should cushion this CM.
Why would existing owners get desperate when they got only 1 prop???
CM Doesn't affect them, right???

Instead could be an opportunity for them to consider upgrade:cool:

Sam88
21-01-13, 13:40
With the whit paper research from DBS, 7m population should cushion this CM.
Why would existing owners get desperate when they got only 1 prop???
CM Doesn't affect them, right???

Instead could be an opportunity for them to consider upgrade:cool:

because many believe that the condo are owned by investors. they failed to see that actually about 20% are rented out. they think there are many people who own 2 properties or more. look around you and see how many % of your friends own 2 properties or more?

jeaprp
21-01-13, 13:46
because many believe that the condo are owned by investors. they failed to see that actually about 20% are rented out. they think there are many people who own 2 properties or more. look around you and see how many % of your friends own 2 properties or more?

Haha, nice one.
economist very the look up on us lah. :cool:
80% of SG live in HDB leh.
condo owners can't be so desperate since they are rich enough to own PC.
They are the top 20% in sgp, right!!!

roly8
21-01-13, 13:51
i have this funny thought suddenly ..

if one walks into a showroom today and sign in with a HDB address ... one may be treated like King ...

while another who sign in with a condo address ...hhhmmm agent may think you are coming in just to check around and have no intention to buy

:doh:


HAHAHAHAH!!!! :D:D:D:D

Sam88
21-01-13, 13:59
Haha, nice one.
economist very the look up on us lah. :cool:
80% of SG live in HDB leh.
condo owners can't be so desperate since they are rich enough to own PC.
They are the top 20% in sgp, right!!!

actually, economist will be proven right. here is why
those who are staying in condos belong to the following category
- those who have only 1 unit and staying in it will not sell.
- those who have multiple units but will not sell because reinvesting is expensive with absd
so the market has lost a huge supply in the market. so who are those who will sell.
- those who have bought a bigger unit say 2.5 mil and now need to sell their 1.2 mil condo. this folks will have difficulty finding buyers and will be desperate to sell to get the monies. they may let go at a discount as they have already made from the a low entry, so in absolute term, it is still a positive gain, just lesser, thats all.
so you will see a negative record on the ura ppi in coming months. if i am not mistaken, new sales from developers will not be included in the ura ppi, thus not reflected.
previous cm also saw dips in 1 to 2 quarters and this round the effect is greater to those who have just recently upgraded.
so from statistical standpoint, the cm will show an effect.

rockinsg
21-01-13, 13:59
Q'bay 22% discount, d'Leedon 15% discount, FEO various project, -4%:cool:

Haha this is really funny. Developer got 22% discount since years ago.
No wonder people rushing to showrooms :doh:

These discounts are on marked up prices. I say my 1M property worth 2M and then give u 30% discount lah. U happy?
You don't believe me, but believe developers?
You buy qbay for 900+ and think that's cheap? :scared-5:

leftfield
21-01-13, 14:01
Govt already say ABSD and LTV not permanent for CM7. The moment there is a discernible unhealthy drop, rest assured the shackles will be released.

Just like when the govt feel that mkt is too hot, they impose CM, they can do the reverse when they think market losing its steam.

So question is who knows what the govt think is the threshold before they act on it? :D

buttercarp
21-01-13, 14:02
Think I mentioned already that drop in demand would be larger than drop in supply. Owners are not yet desperate in selling, but they will first start being desperate in posting to support each other, singing the repetitive songs like "this CM is just like the previous one, don't worry", "oh, yes, i like your post", "i will hold my property tight tight", sort of mentally supporting each other...

It is good to support one another.
That's what friends and forummers are for.

TS, do you hope that owners will become desperate in selling?
Will you go to their rescue?

Sam88
21-01-13, 14:05
have you wondered if there were no cm7 and the following news came out

- singapore will have two new MRT lines
- dbs vickers expects an upcoming white paper on Singapore's population to raise its population target to 7 million

now, just imagine there were no cm7, what would happen today:confused:

eng81157
21-01-13, 14:10
Haha this is really funny. Developer got 22% discount since years ago.
No wonder people rushing to showrooms :doh:

These discounts are on marked up prices. I say my 1M property worth 2M and then give u 30% discount lah. U happy?
You don't believe me, but believe developers?
You buy qbay for 900+ and think that's cheap? :scared-5:

this is a real old sales tactic. just like fashion retailers brandishing posters screaming of '30%', but upped the retail price by 20%

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 14:11
All the good brothers and sisters here so nice to me. Thanks esp. to brother radha08 and proudowner, your are the best :)

Actually I got something I wanna to say but cannot. Something if I say liao sure my handphone will ring la.

So, I better keep that until the next media report.

( This post marked herein 21 Jan 2013 3:11PM )

Paulder
21-01-13, 14:12
I really like BJ21T and his posts, may sound silly and crazy or over ego but there are insightful points to pick up too from his long posts.

Just sometimes I wonder if 2 different persons are using the same nick to post, the writing styles can be totally different..

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 14:17
I really like BJ21T and his posts, may sound silly and crazy or over ego but there are insightful points to pick up too from his long posts.

Just sometimes I wonder if 2 different persons are using the same nick to post, the writing styles can be totally different..

You are so smart...hehehehehhehe

economist
21-01-13, 14:19
The market force of supply and demand will work its way out, the market force is greater than any individual.



TS, do you hope that owners will become desperate in selling?
Will you go to their rescue?

leftfield
21-01-13, 14:22
The market force of supply and demand will work its way out, the market force is greater than any individual.

In Singapore, Govt > Market Force! :scared-5:

taggy
21-01-13, 14:29
have you wondered if there were no cm7 and the following news came out

- singapore will have two new MRT lines
- dbs vickers expects an upcoming white paper on Singapore's population to raise its population target to 7 million

now, just imagine there were no cm7, what would happen today:confused:

it will be cheong ah !!!!:D

jwong71
21-01-13, 14:30
With 80% ownership ? Go and ask how many People want prices to drop by 20%.
You think govt is stupid or trying to lose next election?
My take is +/- 5-10% before govt start removing or adding CMs.
Announcement of increasing population to 6-7mio, aren't they stupid enuff to shot themselves on their foot, for next ge? :doh:

Sam88
21-01-13, 14:31
it will be cheong ah !!!!:D

so now you know why we have cm7

Paulder
21-01-13, 14:36
You are so smart...hehehehehhehe


Got prize anot? hahaha

Simi
21-01-13, 14:39
I really like BJ21T and his posts, may sound silly and crazy or over ego but there are insightful points to pick up too from his long posts.

Just sometimes I wonder if 2 different persons are using the same nick to post, the writing styles can be totally different..

Ya,

One post with the 3rd eye on

the other post when the mosquito was around :ashamed1:

charm
21-01-13, 14:45
The seasoned investors are not going to get jittery as long as interest rates remain below 4% and the world economy is stable.
They know the govt is not engineering a crash but trying very hard to stabilise the market and the CMs will be reversed at the first sign of prices falling more than 10%.
The serious long term investors will welcome a slight fall in prices as they know it is good for the long term health of the property market.

for the past 3 years, contributors to the current high peak price majority are not seasoned invenstors in my opinion.:beats-me-man:

charm
21-01-13, 14:47
it just means developer has marked up by 7 to 10% and then give buyers a "feel good" 7% discount. :o

Agree. fake 7% :doh:

thomastansb
21-01-13, 14:55
If so, Government will have been successful with CM2. Market force far exceed Govt. Even CM7 also didn't stop QBay from selling 210 units in 1 day.

Unless CM8 capital gain tax 50% within 10 years, SSD 8 years, bank interest +2% as tax, 2nd property 20% ABSD and foreigners 40% ABSD.




In Singapore, Govt > Market Force! :scared-5:

eng81157
21-01-13, 14:59
If so, Government will have been successful with CM2. Market force far exceed Govt. Even CM7 also didn't stop QBay from selling 210 units in 1 day.

Unless CM8 capital gain tax 50% within 10 years, SSD 8 years, bank interest +2% as tax, 2nd property 20% ABSD and foreigners 40% ABSD.

the proposed CM8 would work if not for the fact that, Singapore is selling itself as a global financial centre and trying to attract FDI. unless we are paris or new york, where people are dying to enter the country, it's economically suicidal to do so.

proud owner
21-01-13, 15:00
If so, Government will have been successful with CM2. Market force far exceed Govt. Even CM7 also didn't stop QBay from selling 210 units in 1 day.

Unless CM8 capital gain tax 50% within 10 years, SSD 8 years, bank interest +2% as tax, 2nd property 20% ABSD and foreigners 40% ABSD.


this not only will kill the market

it will cause a huge pct of citizens to give up the citizenship and take up PR or citizenship in other countries

taggy
21-01-13, 15:01
GCBs still hot despite cooling measures (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2013/1/35059/gcbs-still-hot-despite-cooling-measures)

er, at least these owners not scare :D

Sam88
21-01-13, 15:01
please read this important site.

http://population.sg/

DaytonaSS
21-01-13, 15:08
CM7 does have a negative impact on CCR properties and the price gap between CCR and OCR will narrow even further. Almost all CMs affects properties as an investment more than ordinary home upgraders.

are you say OCR prices will increase after CM7 or u mean CCR will drop more than OCR?

leesg123
21-01-13, 15:22
Actually to some extend, TS Economist is true.

Though most are not selling, it is during such a time guniang investors will panic and sell resulting in a drop in price. imagine 100 condo, only need 1 joker to panic and fire sale while the other 99 hold on dearly, the valuation and price of the 99 condo will drop. Which is why you will see that when price drop, the volume is thin too.

Ricade
21-01-13, 15:23
The market force of supply and demand will work its way out, the market force is greater than any individual.

this comment, my dear economist, i agree with you. But even with supply and demand, the government can influence to a certain extent whether they want to make singapore a more attractive place to live, work and travel to compared to other nations.. and must i say they have been doing a good job.

(alamak say this in repeat mode at least 3 times liow today.) :doh:

my friend, another advice to you, if you look ard in other investment asset classes, you can 'feel' that mkt is actually not toppish yet at this moment. more upside still compared to downside.. dont let fear cloud your judgement, learn more read more think more and you will find inner peace ;)

Laguna
21-01-13, 15:28
my friend, another advice to you, if you look ard in other investment asset classes, you can 'feel' that mkt is actually not toppish yet at this moment. more upside still compared to downside.. dont let fear cloud your judgement, learn more read more think more and you will find inner peace ;)

fully agreed with you.

economist
21-01-13, 15:36
Yeah, garment has been doing a good job to make Singapore as it is today, though i feel like someone from garment while typing this, ha.

The yield isn't as attractive as 2 years ago, it is certainly less appealing, albeit higher than risk-free rates. I would have agreed with u before CM7, but now, the larger effect of dramatic reduction of demand will come into play, which may likely result in a reduction of price, and then Mr. Khaw will proudly present in Parliament claiming a victory, while removing CM7.


this comment, my dear economist, i agree with you. But even with supply and demand, the government can influence to a certain extent whether they want to make singapore a more attractive place to live, work and travel to compared to other nations.. and must i say they have been doing a good job.

(alamak say this in repeat mode at least 3 times liow today.) :doh:

my friend, another advice to you, if you look ard in other investment asset classes, you can 'feel' that mkt is actually not toppish yet at this moment. more upside still compared to downside.. dont let fear cloud your judgement, learn more read more think more and you will find inner peace ;)

eng81157
21-01-13, 15:43
fully agreed with you.

Shhhh..........don't let KenoBiWan hear you or else he will unleash the Jedi-Deathstar-Mother-of-all-CMs

leftfield
21-01-13, 16:44
If so, Government will have been successful with CM2. Market force far exceed Govt. Even CM7 also didn't stop QBay from selling 210 units in 1 day.

Unless CM8 capital gain tax 50% within 10 years, SSD 8 years, bank interest +2% as tax, 2nd property 20% ABSD and foreigners 40% ABSD.

Not kill the market lah, moderate it!

Govt will always > Market Force cos they will never let market forces run amok here be it up or down! :D

ZeeWee
21-01-13, 17:06
Your friend bought The Pier?

One of the unit my buyer is targeting was just sold :D :D


My friend bot a condo unit at River Valley yesterday. In fact, they started viewing..

blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 17:09
Those that missed this better watch again before I explain later:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TUMxDhEZB4

otherwise later I explain liao you dun understand dun blame the handsome me hor:doh:

price
21-01-13, 17:30
this comment, my dear economist, i agree with you. But even with supply and demand, the government can influence to a certain extent whether they want to make singapore a more attractive place to live, work and travel to compared to other nations.. and must i say they have been doing a good job.

(alamak say this in repeat mode at least 3 times liow today.) :doh:

my friend, another advice to you, if you look ard in other investment asset classes, you can 'feel' that mkt is actually not toppish yet at this moment. more upside still compared to downside.. dont let fear cloud your judgement, learn more read more think more and you will find inner peace ;)
precisely why in Singapore, the greatest risk in property investment = political risks

price
21-01-13, 17:35
So TS, you've created much discussion here. Why not share with us which group of buyer/investor/seller u belong to?

economist
21-01-13, 17:44
Yes, am delighted to see my first thread generating so much interest, and in general, the discussion has been quite gracious.

I probably belong to all three groups here, I therefore do not like the ABSD, neither the SSD, but I try to strike an objective tone.


So TS, you've created much discussion here. Why not share with us which group of buyer/investor/seller u belong to?

Ricade
21-01-13, 18:02
Yes, am delighted to see my first thread generating so much interest, and in general, the discussion has been quite gracious.

I probably belong to all three groups here, I therefore do not like the ABSD, neither the SSD, but I try to strike an objective tone.

hahaha.. then the cooling measure is in fact my friend, created for people like you :)

worry not i also belong to the same boat.. so.. just enjoy the ride and look for better pastures elsewhere ;)

indomie
21-01-13, 18:09
Yes, am delighted to see my first thread generating so much interest, and in general, the discussion has been quite gracious.

I probably belong to all three groups here, I therefore do not like the ABSD, neither the SSD, but I try to strike an objective tone.
Keep the discussion going. I found some of the bros and sis here are very likeable and very keen to help. Not to mention some really has a great sense of humour. By posting my opinion, it actually helps me to conceptualised my thinking and chart the course of actions.

economist
21-01-13, 18:11
haha, speaking of the better pastures elsewhere, I hear lots of bankers talking about a risk-on stock market in 2013, but that's another topic...


hahaha.. then the cooling measure is in fact my friend, created for people like you :)

worry not i also belong to the same boat.. so.. just enjoy the ride and look for better pastures elsewhere ;)

Sam88
21-01-13, 18:50
they will most likely target about 25k new citizens

http://www.nptd.gov.sg/content/NPTD/home/_jcr_content/par_content/download_1/file.res/Occasional%20Paper%20-%20Citizen%20Population%20Scenarios.pdf

Ricade
21-01-13, 19:09
haha, speaking of the better pastures elsewhere, I hear lots of bankers talking about a risk-on stock market in 2013, but that's another topic...

well i kinda feel that there is a sense of truth to risk on attitude.. take a look at gold price.. for the better part of 2008-2012.. everytime market rise gold price seems to be positively corelated witht the increase..

but more recently after the fiscal cliff debacle in late December 2012, gold seems to be showing less positive corelation and on the other hand it starts to exhibit negative corelation to general equity..

if this theory holds true, and lots of big money is being moved away from gold to other asset classes, i am sure you can recognise what kind of price movement we will see in the other asset classes...

but ultimately if you still want to look at property still as an asset class, there are still other pastures that you can explore other than Singapore Residential properties.. this of course requires more dilligence, homework, research and many careful consideration by the potential investor :)

black cat white cat flower cat mosquito cat, as long as the cat can catch a rat, the cat is a good cat :) Huat ah everyone!

Shanhz
21-01-13, 19:17
Those that missed this better watch again before I explain later:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TUMxDhEZB4

otherwise later I explain liao you dun understand dun blame the handsome me hor:doh:

Watch Already. Story please.

hyenergix
21-01-13, 19:23
Even if there is no additional new immigrants, this year will be a decent year for Singapore economy. No need to b desperate.

minority
21-01-13, 19:39
Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.


dont think so.. go look at the show flat there where u find the desperate people

indomie
21-01-13, 20:18
dont think so.. go look at the show flat there where u find the desperate people
But I am sure there are a few desperate housewife
http://images.wikia.com/desperate/images/c/c1/Retro_desperate_housewives.jpg

Rysk
21-01-13, 20:27
Also you failed to mention why owners are desperate?
Cause interest rate are so low?
Cause rental is still strong?
Cause govt making more mrt?
Cause govt release population figures of 7m?

Without any backing and few properties you know of, you are sounding like mr B doomsday man.
Would we nice to hear from you what situation owner was in, that you concluded them desperate?
I already knew this Economist is MR B lah.. Cos the title is the same style like "Property price is coming down fast"..
He will use all kind of stup!d reason to prove that his title is right.. The only thing is.. This time round he will try to tahan not to scold ppl a moron for now :D

Simi
21-01-13, 20:41
Those that missed this better watch again before I explain later:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TUMxDhEZB4

otherwise later I explain liao you dun understand dun blame the handsome me hor:doh:

Bro Handsome

simi lai ay

1st the car heading to Jurong

then turn off to Garden and into an empty basement car park

liak bo kiew :doh:

Rysk
21-01-13, 21:11
I didn't mean owners are desperately selling, I meant some of them are desperately posting here to defend their rhetoric theory, I did't actually want to post until I saw a thread today which almost made me laugh. Yes, sellers will not panic sell, supply will actually be reduced, what matters is that demand will be reduced much more than that!! As a result, more likely than not, residential prices will drop.

So from your "some of them.." you have concluded that your title should be "Many pty owners are desperate" hah!!

Likewise.. from your "tons in strait times classified & propertyguru... you assume you go & ask sure can get 10-20%..." and you concluded your title to be "Property price is coming down fast" hah :D


tons in strait times classified & propertyguru....go & ask for it, you will get, 10-20%...
I sold what I need to...only fools still keep now....in next 1-2 yrs, you will know....

ekl2ekl2
21-01-13, 21:34
Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

Have also just been to view some small resale units after CM7. Was surprised that there are still viewers, thought I would be alone. The owners were certainly not desperate to sell, its the agents that appeared anxious.

As for forumers here defending property prices, this is to be expected bec this is afterall a property forum. Almost everyone here is a owner of at least 1 or more units and many are waiting for prices to drop to buy more. Everyone hopes prices will continue to inch up. I would guess that most of the seasoned property investors have made their bucks and are already out of the local ppty market for the past 1-2 years.

Regardless of how many of forumers are defending the prices, certainly all of us who are deepy rooted here would wish that all these CM would be good for all of us in the long run and as long as Singapore has a good government, there is no need to lose sleep over the price of your property esp when you have already have a roof over your head.

economist
21-01-13, 21:38
Quite well said...



As for forumers here defending property prices, this is to be expected bec this is afterall a property forum. Almost everyone here is a owner of at least 1 or more units and many are waiting for prices to drop to buy more. Everyone hopes prices will continue to inch up. I would guess that most of the seasoned property investors have made their bucks and are already out of the local ppty market for the past 1-2 years.

Regardless of how many of forumers are defending the prices, certainly all of us who are deepy rooted here would wish that all these CM would be good for all of us in the long run and as long as Singapore has a good government, there is no need to lose sleep over the price of your property esp when you have already have a roof over your head.

kane
21-01-13, 21:38
haha, speaking of the better pastures elsewhere, I hear lots of bankers talking about a risk-on stock market in 2013, but that's another topic...

when people make money in stocks, they buy car, watches, house and everything else they can get their hands on. consequently, when they lose money they sell everything. there was lambo and patek phillipes sold to second hand dealers on the cheap during lehman crisis.

ahkongkid
21-01-13, 21:41
fwah so many investors (agents) talking here ah :sleep:

DKSG
21-01-13, 22:02
The way to read the heading is wrongly construed.

What it means is ... property investors are getting desperate ...

They cannot do what they love most now, INVEST!
They will have to hold on to their units tightly now.

I HATE (I seldom hate) people who likes to stir up emotions, these are lousy people of the lowest class.

In an educated forum like this, we talk facts, figures and observations. Not stupid statements like people feeling desperate, emo, happy, horny (oops, sorry, I digress).

Let Office Boy tell u some facts as promised.

If you have visited Alexandra Central showroom today, you will know the meaning of desperate! There are more than 1,000 cheques up for the 100+ commercial units. For each unit, there are like 70-80 bidders~!

This is worse chance than getting a HDB flat!

And these are not Simei uncle or Yew Tee aunties hor! These are people with net worth of at least a million EACH. Even spotted MediaCorp folks waiting anxiously for the balloting !

Too bad Office Boy must work in Office, else can record and show u live footages (like the way mentor BJ does it - the human version) ...

DKSG
PS: Ok la! Tell u all the news I want to tell u all liao ...

hyenergix
21-01-13, 22:06
The way to read the heading is wrongly construed.

What it means is ... property investors are getting desperate ...

They cannot do what they love most now, INVEST!
They will have to hold on to their units tightly now.

I HATE (I seldom hate) people who likes to stir up emotions, these are lousy people of the lowest class.

In an educated forum like this, we talk facts, figures and observations. Not stupid statements like people feeling desperate, emo, happy, horny (oops, sorry, I digress).

Let Office Boy tell u some facts as promised.

If you have visited Alexandra Central showroom today, you will know the meaning of desperate! There are more than 1,000 cheques up for the 100+ commercial units. For each unit, there are like 70-80 bidders~!

This is worse chance than getting a HDB flat!

And these are not Simei uncle or Yew Tee aunties hor! These are people with net worth of at least a million EACH. Even spotted MediaCorp folks waiting anxiously for the balloting !

Too bad Office Boy must work in Office, else can record and show u live footages (like the way mentor BJ does it - the human version) ...

DKSG
PS: Ok la! Tell u all the news I want to tell u all liao ...

Where will e people invest if they fail to get a unit?

DaytonaSS
21-01-13, 22:08
The way to read the heading is wrongly construed.

What it means is ... property investors are getting desperate ...

They cannot do what they love most now, INVEST!
They will have to hold on to their units tightly now.

I HATE (I seldom hate) people who likes to stir up emotions, these are lousy people of the lowest class.

In an educated forum like this, we talk facts, figures and observations. Not stupid statements like people feeling desperate, emo, happy, horny (oops, sorry, I digress).

Let Office Boy tell u some facts as promised.

If you have visited Alexandra Central showroom today, you will know the meaning of desperate! There are more than 1,000 cheques up for the 100+ commercial units. For each unit, there are like 70-80 bidders~!

This is worse chance than getting a HDB flat!

And these are not Simei uncle or Yew Tee aunties hor! These are people with net worth of at least a million EACH. Even spotted MediaCorp folks waiting anxiously for the balloting !

Too bad Office Boy must work in Office, else can record and show u live footages (like the way mentor BJ does it - the human version) ...

DKSG
PS: Ok la! Tell u all the news I want to tell u all liao ...

This must be the significant news you were talking about yest. Perhaps like Alexis is the starting point of MM, Alexandra Central is the starting point for commercial Run up!

JAFCO
21-01-13, 22:11
Your friend is so smart ! Here's WHY:

When you buy a Singapore property, you BUY with it the following:

1) Citizen Security provided by Government

2) Asset Security provided by Singaporean Banks

3) Health Security provided by Healthcare Service

4) Currency Security provided by MAS

5) Future Security provided by Singaporean Schools

6) Employment Security by Singaporean Businesses & MNCs

7) Social Security by Enforcement Agents

8) Time Security by Efficient Statutory Boards

9) Hedging against Natural Events like disasters

10) Hedging against Global Currency Risks

11) Hedging against commodity risks like Gold

12) Hedging against Water Crisis by New-water



Its good you point this out. But the last two cards that hold these securities is national security(from a terrorist bomb or racial riot) and ruling party political security. Can a nation of naive youngstar hold the first in face of distrust among the races here....and can a poltical party be ruling in the face of mistrust betwen the islander and foreign invaders....i exaggerate but in good times we forget the underlying currents and licve in false sens of security as a young nation.

DKSG
21-01-13, 22:12
This must be the significant news you were talking about yest. Perhaps like Alexis is the starting point of MM, Alexandra Central is the starting point for commercial Run up!

Commercial has been quietly and discreetly running up since CM5.

Places like East Village, Robinson whatever, Eon Shenton, Oxley Tower ... If you have diligent enough, you will certainly know the trend and see the kinda price escalation per launch.

Ok la .. tell u all so much already, the rest is up to you all lo!

DKSG

DaytonaSS
21-01-13, 22:16
Its good you point this out. But the last two cards that hold these securities is national security(from a terrorist bomb or racial riot) and ruling party political security. Can a nation of naive youngstar hold the first in face of distrust among the races here....and can a poltical party be ruling in the face of mistrust betwen the islander and foreign invaders....i exaggerate but in good times we forget the underlying currents and licve in false sens of security as a young nation.

Well , when everyone get whats they want, no problem lah. They say no City State have survived in the long pages of history. So make Hay while there is sunshine.

If the gen Y dont self destruct, the next generation of well dwellers and keyboard warrior most certainly will.

kane
21-01-13, 22:19
The way to read the heading is wrongly construed.

What it means is ... property investors are getting desperate ...

They cannot do what they love most now, INVEST!
They will have to hold on to their units tightly now.

I HATE (I seldom hate) people who likes to stir up emotions, these are lousy people of the lowest class.

In an educated forum like this, we talk facts, figures and observations. Not stupid statements like people feeling desperate, emo, happy, horny (oops, sorry, I digress).

Let Office Boy tell u some facts as promised.

If you have visited Alexandra Central showroom today, you will know the meaning of desperate! There are more than 1,000 cheques up for the 100+ commercial units. For each unit, there are like 70-80 bidders~!

This is worse chance than getting a HDB flat!

And these are not Simei uncle or Yew Tee aunties hor! These are people with net worth of at least a million EACH. Even spotted MediaCorp folks waiting anxiously for the balloting !

Too bad Office Boy must work in Office, else can record and show u live footages (like the way mentor BJ does it - the human version) ...

DKSG
PS: Ok la! Tell u all the news I want to tell u all liao ...

wah, hotter than IPO. lol.

So what was the psf?

DaytonaSS
21-01-13, 22:20
Commercial has been quietly and discreetly running up since CM5.

Places like East Village, Robinson whatever, Eon Shenton, Oxley Tower ... If you have diligent enough, you will certainly know the trend and see the kinda price escalation per launch.

Ok la .. tell u all so much already, the rest is up to you all lo!

DKSG

Office boy is multi- discipline. Very PeiFu. Keen on shophouses, but by the time store enough bullets , the door is closed again. Painful to see door open but cannot walk in.

But i shall be like office boy, muster more bullets and wait for another door to open.

dtrax
21-01-13, 22:21
wah, hotter than IPO. lol.

So what was the psf?

got 5k psf got 7k psf or more. which one u prefer?

kane
21-01-13, 22:22
got 5k psf got 7k psf or more. which one u prefer?

does my preference matter when there are 70-80 are bidders balloting? lol.

what's the psf for one of the main road facing units?

dtrax
21-01-13, 22:24
does my preference matter when there are 70-80 are bidders balloting? lol.

what's the psf for one of the main road facing units?

have to pray to God to get your favorite unit

zeamybro
21-01-13, 22:24
Bro Handsome

simi lai ay

1st the car heading to Jurong

then turn off to Garden and into an empty basement car park

liak bo kiew :doh:

Asking u to keep your eyes on Marina Bay district?

ZeeWee
21-01-13, 22:24
Let Office Boy tell u some facts as promised.

If you have visited Alexandra Central showroom today, you will know the meaning of desperate! There are more than 1,000 cheques up for the 100+ commercial units. For each unit, there are like 70-80 bidders~!

This is worse chance than getting a HDB flat!

And these are not Simei uncle or Yew Tee aunties hor! These are people with net worth of at least a million EACH. Even spotted MediaCorp folks waiting anxiously for the balloting !...

You forgot to mention people in wheelchair also come to try to get a unit

Also a revision.. some units have up to around 100++++ balloters for it

DKSG
21-01-13, 22:31
Office boy is multi- discipline. Very PeiFu. Keen on shophouses, but by the time store enough bullets , the door is closed again. Painful to see door open but cannot walk in.

But i shall be like office boy, muster more bullets and wait for another door to open.

There are still quite a a few doors open la ! Just work harder lor!

Cant tell u more, if not later like ZeeWee's client - kenna jump Q!~
Ok if you are the jumper, but I am usually the jumpee. hahaha!

DKSG

kane
21-01-13, 22:37
have to pray to God to get your favorite unit

when are they balloting?

ZeeWee
21-01-13, 22:38
when are they balloting?

Alexandra Central? Today lor.. finished and over liao

kane
21-01-13, 22:40
Alexandra Central? Today lor.. finished and over liao

so those ground floor units facing road went for 7000psf?

Simi
21-01-13, 22:44
Hi DKSG

notice that Iskandar commercial property not cheong yet

do you think is a good idea to chiong in 1st before others ?

now it seems like all are going after the residential there


There are still quite a a few doors open la ! Just work harder lor!

Cant tell u more, if not later like ZeeWee's client - kenna jump Q!~
Ok if you are the jumper, but I am usually the jumpee. hahaha!

DKSG

minority
21-01-13, 22:44
My friend bot a condo unit at River Valley yesterday. In fact, they started viewing before CM6.

Their calculation :
Inflation is 4.5% a year, it will stay high, how to fight with this inflation?
Interest rate low, and remain low.

How they do?
transfer the name of the only private propperty as single owner, pay only 3% of the half portion (subject to confirmation from lawyer)

buy the second property under the other's name as first property and still taking 80% loan.


well effectively u still pay 6% + lawyer fees

3% to transfer 1st property

3% to pay for the 2nd property

unless ur 2nd unit is bigger if smaller then the 1st the saving is not much.

ZeeWee
21-01-13, 22:45
so those ground floor units facing road went for 7000psf?

Sorry don't have the full price list as the Developer invites sold some on Sunday night.. but around $6kish

minority
21-01-13, 22:47
Singapore HDB policy is Santa Claus Policy.

"What? Am I hearing this correctly," many young bothers and sisters now wondering if I am now typing from the IMH ( Institute of Mental Health).

Let me explain before you jump to any conclusion.

A NEW HDB gave the buyer an UNFAIR ADVANTAGE over the rest of the market segments. How so?

Because it is a very Heavily Subsidised Investment. So UNFAIR that your humble brother sometimes imagine the HDB to be headed by Santa Claus giving away free monies !

The construction costs itself for a single unit already well surpassed the price each citizen pay for a new HDB. Let alone if we were to take into consideration infrastructural costs or intangible benefits like lift lobby, carparks, gardens, public facillities like libraries and shopping malls.

To add to this ridiculous charitable act, the Singapore Government actually built MRT stations ( or MTR as known in Hong Kong, or Subways as known in angmo cities ) and light rails system within walking distance of the new projects.

Not surprisingly, the new HDB or new EC are always closer to MRT stations than the private condos. There is only one exception in the Lion City and that is ION Orchard.

What were they thinking? Unlike the Minister who spent countless sleepless nights thinking about how to curb the sizzling hot Singapore property market; your humble brother here spent countless sleepless nights wondering if HDB is really headed by Santa Claus.

Where on this Planet's developed cities can you find a new 900sqft 3 bedder apartment selling for less than S$500,000? If you convert that into British Pound or Swiss Franc, it looked even more ridiculous!

Indeed, HDB is giving you free monies- albeit not in the form of hard cold cash, but in a form of market asset value which eventually you can choose to convert into cash if you want to.

A quick mental work by your humble brother, for each new HDB unit, the buyer stands to gain at least S$20,000 from the construction costs, and at least an additional S$80,000 if you compare a similar sized HDB resale unit.

A new BTO investment of about S$300,000 would be worth around S$400,000 if put into the resale market after complying the minimum occupation period. And that is just conservatively calculating.

Then, for those uncles and aunties who bought their Marine Parade New HDB for less than S$100,000 20 years ago, it became even more ridiculous when a recent unit there was sold for a COLD HARD S$1,000,000.

Now, if we even take a high inflation modal rate of 5% annually for 20 years, the uncles and aunties still stand to gain more than S$700,000 in present value terms !


NOW YOU GET IT?

Well, if you are a young investor with little capital, you should try to get married and then ballot for Executive Condo, BTO or HDB. Then, get a loan from HDB or bank to service your asset.

Getting a HDB immediately after your marriage will have gotten you started a few hundred meters ahead from the rest of your peers in the long property investment marathon.

PAP government is on the right track, dun be brainwashed by the Internet forums.

see what my mentor said:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7D3_eGaO5k


HDB Policy is also my Grandmother's Policy.

"You can't be serious," I heard young punks saying this infront of their iPhones to me again.

Read My Lips: HDB POLICY IS MY GRANDMOTHER'S POLICY !

wow...that was just scary man......before you tell on me and get me to lim kopi, let me quickly tell you a story:

Only a few brothers and sisters here are aware, I got to where I am today because I was born with a silver spoon. Or... I was born into a disgustingly rich family la. But anyway, that's another story.

You see, I got a head start in property investment using a S$500,000 seed money given by my 100 years old grandmother on my 19th birthday la. ( Very paiseh...I play cheat la.....WOAHAHAHEHHEHEHEHEH )

However, all is not lost! The roads to Rome are all different, but the destination is the same, my good young brothers and sisters.

"I feel like smashing his face," indeed, my third eye heard you !

Anyway, before you got all angry...listen to me for a sec.

When you buy a HDB, the subsidised rate they gave you, is.......

JUST LIKE THE SEED MONEY MY GRANDMOTHER GAVE ME !


BINGO! Now you believe that I am an enlightened being with a THIRD EYE liao bo?

Totally agree...

LIKE+++

DaytonaSS
21-01-13, 22:48
There are still quite a a few doors open la ! Just work harder lor!

Cant tell u more, if not later like ZeeWee's client - kenna jump Q!~
Ok if you are the jumper, but I am usually the jumpee. hahaha!

DKSG

work very hard liao leh. any harder will overtake cow liao. LOL 1 month save 10k also need few years to DP shop house now. Damn sian

kane
21-01-13, 22:49
Sorry don't have the full price list as the Developer invites sold some on Sunday night.. but around $6kish

oh ok, so plus GST, it'll be around $7k...

economist
21-01-13, 22:50
No, 3% is on your share of the existing property. The problem is more with the situation where you may have loans on existing property which makes transfer somehow more troublesome. Plus, transfer is considered sales, so SSD would be imposed if the unit is sold within 4 years.


well effectively u still pay 6% + lawyer fees

3% to transfer 1st property

3% to pay for the 2nd property

unless ur 2nd unit is bigger if smaller then the 1st the saving is not much.

economist
21-01-13, 22:55
Please refrain from using attacking words, and keep the forum a polite place as it has been.

Emotion is an important factor to consider, and market sentiment has a great influence on the trend, this is exactly how Fed and ECB succeeded in reining the crisis, and the CM7 is going to play the other way round by gripping on the residential demand.

The hot commercial/retail/strata office is another proof of the dramatic reduction in demand in residential space, as investors are forced to leave residential and look for greener pastures.

Again, as I pointed out in the beginning, market may start to tilt towards to the buyers in the residential market as the reduction of demand will far outstrip the reduction in supply, so it doesn't make sense talking about things like holding your residential property tight tight.

rockinsg
21-01-13, 23:22
Please refrain from using attacking words, and keep the forum a polite place as it has been.

Emotion is an important factor to consider, and market sentiment has a great influence on the trend, this is exactly how Fed and ECB succeeded in reining the crisis, and the CM7 is going to play the other way round by gripping on the residential demand.

The hot commercial/retail/strata office is another proof of the dramatic reduction in demand in residential space, as investors are forced to leave residential and look for greener pastures.

Again, as I pointed out in the beginning, market may start to tilt towards to the buyers in the residential market as the reduction of demand will far outstrip the reduction in supply, so it doesn't make sense talking about things like holding your residential property tight tight.


Title of thread should be changed to..desperate buyer urging owners not to hold tight tight :2cents:.

And no no matter how emotional you are, it won't rein in prices either :D We have seen mr B before. Months and months of hard work, poor despo guy :p.

economist
21-01-13, 23:29
I have been talking about the government measures and the market forces in general (reduction of demand, and market sentiment), so don't quote me wrongly. And pls don't anyhow link me with others. Good night.

DaytonaSS
21-01-13, 23:29
Again, as I pointed out in the beginning, market may start to tilt towards to the buyers in the residential market as the reduction of demand will far outstrip the reduction in supply, so it doesn't make sense talking about things like holding your residential property tight tight.

4yrs SSD is given any buyers in the last 2 years need to hold tight tight ma.....

does your reduction in demand point to investment demand or housing demand as in physical place for some to reside in? the demand to reside is holding up but the supply of housing needs time to build. In fact the huge ramp up in supply by MND is to cater to housing need so to moderate prices?

Only demand supply relationship possibly happening is housing demand is lower and physical supply is increased, that leads to a price drop.

maybe very late liao, mind not working, i cannot comprehend how supply can reduce, alot of enbloc?

kane
21-01-13, 23:32
Let's see what is in that white paper before we conclude if there will be a reduction in demand.

economist
21-01-13, 23:36
Reduction in demand would refer to both investment and upgrading, for obvious reasons; Reduction in supply is a side effect of every CM which makes owners less willing to sell as it is also difficult for them to buy another one.

The only difference in this CM7 is that the reduction in demand is probably much larger than the reduction in supply.

Your quoted future 200K unit supply is something that will happen in the next few years, so it is not covered in my original thread.


4yrs SSD is given any buyers in the last 2 years need to hold tight tight ma.....

does your reduction in demand point to investment demand or housing demand as in physical place for some to reside in? the demand to reside is holding up but the supply of housing needs time to build. In fact the huge ramp up in supply by MND is to cater to housing need so to moderate prices?

Only demand supply relationship possibly happening is housing demand is lower and physical supply is increased, that leads to a price drop.

maybe very late liao, mind not working, i cannot comprehend how supply can reduce, alot of enbloc?

DaytonaSS
21-01-13, 23:56
Reduction in demand would refer to both investment and upgrading, for obvious reasons; Reduction in supply is a side effect of every CM which makes owners less willing to sell as it is also difficult for them to buy another one.

The only difference in this CM7 is that the reduction in demand is probably much larger than the reduction in supply.

Your quoted future 200K unit supply is something that will happen in the next few years, so it is not covered in my original thread.

IC, thanks for the explanation. abit of difference in demand and supply definition, so i m struggling to make sense.

DaytonaSS
22-01-13, 00:00
Let's see what is in that white paper before we conclude if there will be a reduction in demand.

bro Kane, my 2 hrs coffee session today at Tiong Bahru bakery confirms it liao, no need wait white paper. Just need to sit there 1pm to 3 pm, the answer is very clear. Hot MILFs are coming in DROVES

indomie
22-01-13, 00:10
Please refrain from using attacking words, and keep the forum a polite place as it has been.

Emotion is an important factor to consider, and market sentiment has a great influence on the trend, this is exactly how Fed and ECB succeeded in reining the crisis, and the CM7 is going to play the other way round by gripping on the residential demand.

The hot commercial/retail/strata office is another proof of the dramatic reduction in demand in residential space, as investors are forced to leave residential and look for greener pastures.

Again, as I pointed out in the beginning, market may start to tilt towards to the buyers in the residential market as the reduction of demand will far outstrip the reduction in supply, so it doesn't make sense talking about things like holding your residential property tight tight.
U are very premature in assuming that the residential property prices will fall due to reduction in demand. I would argue even if the demand is weaken, the price will remain strong or even stronger. I will predict that rental will provide a major role in supporting the residential property prices. At the moment people will flirt with the idea of investing in shares, bond or even commercial properties, but they will come back to residential properties. There is always a fear in people heart that they will be priced out of the residential properties if they waited for too long. The track record shows that residential property provided a high level of return and rental income. It will be hard for anyone to convince the people otherwise. With the global situation as it is (ie. Money printing) and lacking other invesment alternatives as a source of income, one would be foolish to start running toward the exit out of residential properties.

If all u can think about is lack in demand will bring down the prices, u are very simplistic. The gov has the responsibility that sg doesn't become an urban ghetto. In a way this cm7 is a good way in controlling the quality of the people. From now on only people with good financial standing can purchase our properties. It also bring the ownership back to singaporeans (first time buyers). Why on earth that a better quality owners will bring down the price?

economist
22-01-13, 00:42
The assumption is based on simply market mechanism, yes, it is simple, but that's the gist of market. Sorry, it's getting late, have to call it a day, i can't address other parts of your post, good night.


U are very premature in assuming that the residential property prices will fall due to reduction in demand.

blackjack21trader
22-01-13, 06:15
The assumption is based on simply market mechanism, yes, it is simple, but that's the gist of market. Sorry, it's getting late, have to call it a day, i can't address other parts of your post, good night.

WOAHAAHHHAHAHHEHEH

CHIOKAPENG LA

blackjack21trader
22-01-13, 06:43
KA NI GONG, NI MAI TIA

MAI TU LIAO !

Why people believe in academics but not in MY THIRD EYE leh?

WOAHAHAHAHAHHHEHEHEH

felicia_sg
22-01-13, 06:59
Looking at all the negative comments on CCR, time to buy & pick up durian in CCR!


CM7 does have a negative impact on CCR properties and the price gap between CCR and OCR will narrow even further. Almost all CMs affects properties as an investment more than ordinary home upgraders.

roly8
22-01-13, 07:19
U are very premature in assuming that the residential property prices will fall due to reduction in demand. I would argue even if the demand is weaken, the price will remain strong or even stronger. I will predict that rental will provide a major role in supporting the residential property prices. At the moment people will flirt with the idea of investing in shares, bond or even commercial properties, but they will come back to residential properties. There is always a fear in people heart that they will be priced out of the residential properties if they waited for too long. The track record shows that residential property provided a high level of return and rental income. It will be hard for anyone to convince the people otherwise. With the global situation as it is (ie. Money printing) and lacking other invesment alternatives as a source of income, one would be foolish to start running toward the exit out of residential properties.

If all u can think about is lack in demand will bring down the prices, u are very simplistic. The gov has the responsibility that sg doesn't become an urban ghetto. In a way this cm7 is a good way in controlling the quality of the people. From now on only people with good financial standing can purchase our properties. It also bring the ownership back to singaporeans (first time buyers). Why on earth that a better quality owners will bring down the price?


like your post! :o

though i dislike the expensive property. :D :D

kane
22-01-13, 08:33
bro Kane, my 2 hrs coffee session today at Tiong Bahru bakery confirms it liao, no need wait white paper. Just need to sit there 1pm to 3 pm, the answer is very clear. Hot MILFs are coming in DROVES

They working there or they buying things?

Leeds
22-01-13, 10:00
I do read this forum almost everyday and I find most of the forummers helpful and kind.

There are always 2 sides of the coin (or views in this aspect) so take the views and comments with a pinch of salt :tsk-tsk: If one has a crystal ball he wont be here already... :cool:

I am vested but I am also ok if prices do drop. Isnt this what the eco-system is all about? Who wants to sell if the graph is a straight line up?


http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/smallcharts/Singapore-Property-Price-Index.jpg (http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-summary-of-past-cycles/)

Just want to support what you had said about the graph. As you rightly pointed out, who want to sell if the graph is a straight line up.

Rosy
22-01-13, 10:29
To be fair, this is another self proclaimed expert trying to seek attention like some others in the forum.

lajia
22-01-13, 10:41
"Many property owners are desperate..." another unfounded statement and wrongly used as subject title. Again as I mentioned in the other thread as well, TS is again resembling someone who is very biaised in this forum even those we promote freedom of speech :D

Leeds
22-01-13, 11:15
While the Title of this thread may not be appropriate, it does 'catch attention' which I hope was the real intention of TS. The contents in this thread and the comments from various contributors show just how we all feel at heart even though many speak their minds rather than from their heart.

The market is not likely to be influenced by what we discussed here even though there are paid forumers (from property developers or other interest parties) who are "doing their jobs" right here.

Whoever you are, please be respectful to each other views and restrain from making your own assumptions about the individuals, associating people with other characters (in this forum) or challenging any individual at a personal level.

Thus far, this thread has been rather enjoying.

economist
22-01-13, 11:21
Oh my, you are not afraid of being named as another clone?


While the Title of this thread may not be appropriate, it does 'catch attention' which I hope was the real intention of TS. The contents in this thread and the comments from various contributors show just how we all feel at heart even though many speak their minds rather than from their heart.

The market is not likely to be influenced by what we discussed here even though there are paid forumers (from property developers or other interest parties) who are "doing their jobs" right here.

Whoever you are, please be respectful to each other views and restrain from making your own assumptions about the individuals, associating people with other characters (in this forum) or challenge any individual at a personal level.

Thus far, this thread has been rather enjoying.

economist
22-01-13, 16:01
Interesting, any idea who they might be?


... there are paid forumers (from property developers or other interest parties) who are "doing their jobs" right here.

indomie
22-01-13, 16:30
Interesting, any idea who they might be?
Actually I really doubt anybody is paid to tcss here. I think the folks here are just passionate about property. I am open to any question to challenge my integrity.

sherlock
22-01-13, 17:12
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/smallcharts/Singapore-Property-Price-Index.jpg (http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-summary-of-past-cycles/)

Just want to support what you had said about the graph. As you rightly pointed out, who want to sell if the graph is a straight line up.

Somehow the graph shows are we are somewhere near or at the peak. But then, the new peak is always higher than the previous so you know where this is going.

hyenergix
22-01-13, 17:18
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/smallcharts/Singapore-Property-Price-Index.jpg (http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-summary-of-past-cycles/)

Just want to support what you had said about the graph. As you rightly pointed out, who want to sell if the graph is a straight line up.

This plateauing graph for residential properties comes at another social cost. I believe the commercial properties graph does not present a pleasant picture, particularly if the higher rental results in inflation and also drive companies overseas. The impact should be hitting us badly this year - just watch out for your daily necessities prices.

jacelynchia
22-01-13, 17:29
I hope people don't panic and continue to think positively.Some owners tend to worry too much to the extend of exaggerated outcome.

All the negativity is causing chaos in minds of new buyers.

Singaporeans will continue buying once they come to terms and realization of the new CM, takes time.
As long as people continue to buy, population continue to grow, property market may be brought to new heights.:D

Laguna
22-01-13, 17:37
Why desperate?
I am still buying....

hyenergix
22-01-13, 17:40
Why desperate?
I am still buying....

Target location? You are still looking at the E&O project at Medini?

3C
22-01-13, 17:43
stop feeding the troll

Leeds
22-01-13, 18:20
stop feeding the troll

Sadly, trolling is part of the cyber world.

Rosy
22-01-13, 18:23
I do not think TS is a troll.

More like attention seeker.

ekl2ekl2
22-01-13, 18:40
Why desperate?
I am still buying....

Wow, your arsenal is well stocked.
Most of us, toiled many years just to get 1 bullet and once trigger is pulled, may take a decade to recover.

lajia
22-01-13, 18:40
There will always be ppl who will try to off load. The wide spread panic will happen when there is a crisis especially like high unemployment or increasing retrenchment going on.
Otherwise, it should be good. Like u said, it takes time to digest and move on. At the end, price might not drop or maybe slightly, but for sure, it will eat into bottom line of developers. They also know, demand is there, as long as they are willing to absorb whatever ABSD or anything that comes, ppl will continue to buy.
This CM got two message,
1) to developer >> don't play play, don't be too aggressive in your bidding, if not my CM will make your pocket broken, hence, land cost will be in check!
2) hold the bull so that first timer can buy as they may.

So if price of new development holds, BTO prices unchanged, u think resale price will drop a lot?? ;) :2cents:

Anyway, my opinion, as mentioned before, subject title used inappropriately...:2cents:


I hope people don't panic and continue to think positively.Some owners tend to worry too much to the extend of exaggerated outcome.

All the negativity is causing chaos in minds of new buyers.

Singaporeans will continue buying once they come to terms and realization of the new CM, takes time.
As long as people continue to buy, population continue to grow, property market may be brought to new heights.:D

kane
22-01-13, 19:01
Why desperate?
I am still buying....

Many property owners are desperate... -ly trying to buy more properties? Heh.

taggy
22-01-13, 19:26
Wow, your arsenal is well stocked.
Most of us, toiled many years just to get 1 bullet and once trigger is pulled, may take a decade to recover.

and come 1 cm, which spoil my bullet :banghead:

Laguna
22-01-13, 22:01
Wow, your arsenal is well stocked.
Most of us, toiled many years just to get 1 bullet and once trigger is pulled, may take a decade to recover.

aiyo, I did not say what I am buying....

Regulators
22-01-13, 22:14
sometimes it is not about having no arsenal, even with the arsenal, is it worth paying 10% or more higher than others? I for one hate putting money into gahmen's pocket for no good reason. Actually these CMs supposed to penalise foreigners, don't know why gahmen also want to do that to singaporeans. With the shrinking population of native singaporeans, gahmen should not be too overly harsh with us. Singaporeans are becoming rarer by the day.


and come 1 cm, which spoil my bullet :banghead:

DKSG
23-01-13, 00:33
sometimes it is not about having no arsenal, even with the arsenal, is it worth paying 10% or more higher than others? I for one hate putting money into gahmen's pocket for no good reason. Actually these CMs supposed to penalise foreigners, don't know why gahmen also want to do that to singaporeans. With the shrinking population of native singaporeans, gahmen should not be too overly harsh with us. Singaporeans are becoming rarer by the day.

Very much agree!

With this, I hope we will stop posting on this silly-titled thread n move our discussion to BJ's thread.

Let this thread RIP with its creator.

DKSG

Rysk
23-01-13, 07:04
Very much agree!

With this, I hope we will stop posting on this silly-titled thread n move our discussion to BJ's thread.

Let this thread RIP with its creator.

DKSG

Forever.. this MR B's (aka Economist) thread CANNOT MAKE IT!! :banghead:

minority
23-01-13, 08:13
sometimes it is not about having no arsenal, even with the arsenal, is it worth paying 10% or more higher than others? I for one hate putting money into gahmen's pocket for no good reason. Actually these CMs supposed to penalise foreigners, don't know why gahmen also want to do that to singaporeans. With the shrinking population of native singaporeans, gahmen should not be too overly harsh with us. Singaporeans are becoming rarer by the day.


Its didnt pinielize folks who need a place to stay. So i dont think it impact real users. I think its fair policy. There is too much froth in the market at the moment.

sabian
23-01-13, 08:23
Its didnt pinielize folks who need a place to stay. So i dont think it impact real users. I think its fair policy. There is too much froth in the market at the moment.
For froth meh? All the property bulls say will chiong higher when 7 mio target hit. Bro BJ's third eye also say one...

economist
23-01-13, 09:35
There are too many wrong statements here. Let me just first pick the often mentioned 7 million target.

Population is increasing, but one has to look at the pace of increasing, and then compare it with the increase of supply. I don't have all the numbers yet, but a quick glance through the NPTD paper shows that 79,167 PRs were granted in 2008 while only 27,521 were granted in 2011. For SCs, that was 20,513 and 15,777.

The granting of PR has shown a sharp decrease.

august
23-01-13, 12:14
There are too many wrong statements here. Let me just first pick the often mentioned 7 million target.

Population is increasing, but one has to look at the pace of increasing, and then compare it with the increase of supply. I don't have all the numbers yet, but a quick glance through the NPTD paper shows that 79,167 PRs were granted in 2008 while only 27,521 were granted in 2011. For SCs, that was 20,513 and 15,777.

The granting of PR has shown a sharp decrease.

If the pace of intake does not decrease, then i worry.

eng81157
23-01-13, 12:50
If the pace of intake does not decrease, then i worry.

don't worry. that guy is just bad with stats. since when rate of PR approvals = population growth rate?! look at the number of foreign workforce, it's booming like never before

jeaprp
23-01-13, 12:55
There are too many wrong statements here. Let me just first pick the often mentioned 7 million target.

Population is increasing, but one has to look at the pace of increasing, and then compare it with the increase of supply. I don't have all the numbers yet, but a quick glance through the NPTD paper shows that 79,167 PRs were granted in 2008 while only 27,521 were granted in 2011. For SCs, that was 20,513 and 15,777.

The granting of PR has shown a sharp decrease.

To correct u on the 7mil number, this is the target set by govt according to DBS research, also a forecast nia.
Whether it is achievable , is up to the man in charge .
Only he will have the numbers and means,
but u will feel it when, u go anywhere, it is always jammed packed.
get it:cool:

GIG
23-01-13, 14:10
sometimes it is not about having no arsenal, even with the arsenal, is it worth paying 10% or more higher than others? I for one hate putting money into gahmen's pocket for no good reason. Actually these CMs supposed to penalise foreigners, don't know why gahmen also want to do that to singaporeans. With the shrinking population of native singaporeans, gahmen should not be too overly harsh with us. Singaporeans are becoming rarer by the day.

If you look at other corrupt and ungoverment nation, do you know how the people
there live? Have you see the movie Hunger Games? In these countries, people
who are strong physically, dare to die and with a killer and oppressor mind who will be on
top of the game. Those with weak heart, coward and afraid to die will be the loser.

Imagine in Singapore, locals with a lot of money, selfish, dont care about others,
Want to have much share as possible, i want to win let others who cannot make it suffer.

So whats the difference between them?
Dont think with money one can do everything one's like.
That is why we have a democracy to elect a government to put things in control.

If people who got a lot money thinks that they want to control
And do not want government to involve.
Go and live in other countries where no government involve,
And feel for yourself if money or one's strength is the name of the game.

roly8
23-01-13, 14:33
one word why we live for: money


:D:D:D

blackjack21trader
23-01-13, 16:59
Watch Already. Story please.

Story is here, good brother :

http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16583&page=7

:)

RCT
23-01-13, 19:32
one word why we live for: money


:D:D:D

Money = Resources.. The more money you have the more resources you can own.

If u have money, you can eat good food, stay good house, wear good clothes, have pretty girls, etc..

If u don't have money, you have to eat lousy food, stay in pigeon holes, wear cheap clothes, don't have a lot of pretty girls, etc...

hahaha.. In both case, you are still able to survive.. Just that the amount of resources you have...

teddybear
23-01-13, 20:43
Why so many economists in this forum? Leeds another one always talking about economic theories...

But hor, my experience is all these economists I seldom see them actually become very rich ones.... :banghead:
Because all talk and no action and they don't even dare to act on their own advocation! If they do, they actually become bankcrupt! :scared-1:



Forever.. this MR B's (aka Economist) thread CANNOT MAKE IT!! :banghead:

kane
23-01-13, 21:37
since everyone likes to throw up economic theories, I have one very simple one.

P = M x V

teddybear
23-01-13, 22:00
My half-baked theory:
Property price = function of (Money growth) * (population) / (land size)

Don't need to care population growth one.... Look at long term (10 years from now)... :p

if you look at huge money growth (from paper money printing) & population increase now and in next few years, we know what PP direction will take, just a matter of the speed only (don't need to be economist one, those people canNOT earn real money for themselves, can only take a salary for writing those mouth-piece).................. :D


since everyone likes to throw up economic theories, I have one very simple one.

P = M x V

kane
23-01-13, 22:05
My half-baked theory:
Property price = function of (Money growth) * (population) / (land size)

Don't need to care population growth one.... Look at long term (10 years from now)... :p

if you look at huge money growth (from paper money printing) & population increase now and in next few years, we know what PP direction will take, just a matter of the speed only (don't need to be economist one, those people can earn real money for themselves, can only take a salary for writing those mouth-piece).................. :D

I see you have economics background as well. Haha.

teddybear
23-01-13, 22:08
No lah, I hack care economic theory because they are mostly useless. I believe in unorthodox theory and contrarian theory............. :p


I see you have economics background as well. Haha.

kane
23-01-13, 22:16
Contrarian theory is a publicly recognised theory as well. Heh.

Unorthodox theory doesn't exist though...

DaytonaSS
23-01-13, 22:27
Let me try one formula also

SD + COE = voice of complain*total price of handouts

teddybear
23-01-13, 22:28
oh, miss out another one, "seletar". Why suddenly this forum got so many "economists"???


Why so many economists in this forum? Leeds another one always talking about economic theories...

But hor, my experience is all these economists I seldom see them actually become very rich ones.... :banghead:
Because all talk and no action and they don't even dare to act on their own advocation! If they do, they actually become bankcrupt! :scared-1:

kane
23-01-13, 22:28
tonight everone is an economist. heh.

teddybear
23-01-13, 22:30
Not me, I don't wan, wait forever poor and can write and write to just get a salary only.... :doh:


tonight everone is an economist. heh.

teddybear
23-01-13, 22:31
What is SD? :ashamed1:


Let me try one formula also

SD + COE = voice of complain*total price of handouts

DaytonaSS
23-01-13, 22:32
What is SD? :ashamed1:

Stamp Duties lor. They just discovered COE is too slow and too little

Paulder
23-01-13, 22:33
since everyone likes to throw up economic theories, I have one very simple one.

P = M x V

Ok, so what is the significance of this momentum equation?

DaytonaSS
23-01-13, 22:35
Let me try one formula also

SD + COE = voice of complain*total price of handouts

If u realise, 5 years ago dont have so many complains and govt freebies, stamp duties and COE is cheap!

kane
23-01-13, 23:06
Ok, so what is the significance of this momentum equation?

just observe the variables and see how they play out in real time.

kane
23-01-13, 23:07
Not me, I don't wan, wait forever poor and can write and write to just get a salary only.... :doh:

Soros was trained in LSE, but i wonder was his an economics degree.

Leeds
24-01-13, 02:08
Why so many economists in this forum? Leeds another one always talking about economic theories...

But hor, my experience is all these economists I seldom see them actually become very rich ones.... :banghead:
Because all talk and no action and they don't even dare to act on their own advocation! If they do, they actually become bankcrupt! :scared-1:

It is always nice to know someone remembers you. I am enjoying standing afar. You get a better view.


The secret to success is to offend the greatest number of people. (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/g/georgebern383449.html)

George Bernard Shaw (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/g/georgebern383449.html)

teddybear
24-01-13, 07:14
Sorry I didn't make myself clear, it is not economics degree or economics theory that is the problem.

You see, people with economics degree, the successful ones never work as "economists" writing pieces of paper (all talk no action). :p

The successful ones work in jobs that implements what they advocate and make the policies &/or actions to make money, e.g. Bernanke & Soros are 2 good examples. :D


Soros was trained in LSE, but i wonder was his an economics degree.

Leeds
24-01-13, 10:11
An economist friend of mine used to tell me that economists are few of the 'smartest' people on planet earth because they advise governments, corporations and people at large without the burden of responsibility and yet get paid for. At most, they get the sack and this is usually after the fact. On the other hand, bankers and financial advisors could get sued when their advices turn bad.

While I cannot be sure how good they (economists) are in making investment decisions, I do know that most economists are successful people.

People who filed for bankruptcy are usually businessman, share investor, property investor and highly leveraged individual.

Note: I am not an economist nor major in economics. I merely read economics as a subject.

bernbaum
24-01-13, 13:28
don't worry. that guy is just bad with stats. since when rate of PR approvals = population growth rate?! look at the number of foreign workforce, it's booming like never before

I don't think it's fair to attack economist in such a personal manner. I gained great insights from him but I also think your refutation has validity. I actually just heard about the 7mil thing but I think with that kind of population (whether PR/citizen/foreigner) will support the property market one way or another (rent or purchase). But in what time frame? Maybe until the MRT lines are built up until 2030 to better accommodate the increase in population? If that's so than that's still some time away and there's no clear long term solution to the problems in US and Europe to give any credible forecast in that timeframe.

economist
24-01-13, 13:47
Although it is nice for you to speak out, and I appreciate, but you should not have, because you are registered in Jan with only 1 post. They may soon label you as my clone, and they may also think this post is just an act.

Don't worry, I know how to ignore unfair posts.


I don't think it's fair to attack economist in such a personal manner. I gained great insights from him but I also think your refutation has validity. I actually just heard about the 7mil thing but I think with that kind of population (whether PR/citizen/foreigner) will support the property market one way or another (rent or purchase). But in what time frame? Maybe until the MRT lines are built up until 2030 to better accommodate the increase in population? If that's so than that's still some time away and there's no clear long term solution to the problems in US and Europe to give any credible forecast in that timeframe.

bernbaum
24-01-13, 14:04
Lol, then so let it be an act. Ideally a forum should support rational exchange. Even if some are actors, if they are irrational they will be ratted out given that there is enough motivation to do so. There may be some history with this Mr B person but I'm new and so I'm not obligated to act one way or another because of some past events I don't even know about.

eng81157
24-01-13, 15:35
I don't think it's fair to attack economist in such a personal manner. I gained great insights from him but I also think your refutation has validity. I actually just heard about the 7mil thing but I think with that kind of population (whether PR/citizen/foreigner) will support the property market one way or another (rent or purchase). But in what time frame? Maybe until the MRT lines are built up until 2030 to better accommodate the increase in population? If that's so than that's still some time away and there's no clear long term solution to the problems in US and Europe to give any credible forecast in that timeframe.

i am just against people using stats baselessly and wrongly to argue a case. get the facts right and straight before debating

indomie
24-01-13, 15:47
Lol, then so let it be an act. Ideally a forum should support rational exchange. Even if some are actors, if they are irrational they will be ratted out given that there is enough motivation to do so. There may be some history with this Mr B person but I'm new and so I'm not obligated to act one way or another because of some past events I don't even know about.
I agree its all about rational exchange... Good on you mate

howgozit
24-01-13, 16:00
I agree its all about rational exchange... Good on you mate

Me too. Agree

Leeds
24-01-13, 16:32
I agree its all about rational exchange... Good on you mate

Finally, there is space in this forum for rational exchange.


It takes patience, understanding and mutal respect to make this happen.


The minority is sometimes right; the majority always wrong. (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/g/georgebern143244.html)

George Bernard Shaw (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/g/georgebern143244.html)


This is why we need rational exchange and discussion and hopefully get it right sometimes.