View Full Version : Reasons for ppty market to come down
1. Excess supply; more than 100,000 units by end is 2014
2. Market uncertainty;us, Europe,china,Japan, Singapore
3. More launches in coming months
4. CM7
5. Sg ecomomy not doing very well either
6. Interests rates raising?
7. Strict FT policy
Anyone have more reasons for the property prices to come down?
We have heard so many reasons why ppty prices should go up, kinda sick of hearing those, every time go showflat, agents will tell me the same story.
I start this thread to hear more reasons for it to come down not go up.
Thanks.
Most people with vested interests will not want to see property prices to drop sharply as they worry valuation drop too much and banks will request a top up in difference.
But, think about this...this is reality....anything that goes up will come down eventually..this is market cycle.
You like it or not, this is the facts. U remember those people who bought condo and hdb in 1997. U should go ask them, how much they have MAKE today with today's valuation.
Most will tell u, with interests, they still LOSE $$$.
So please wake up.
Do you know what is Money?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsmbWBpnCNk
Do you know what is Money?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsmbWBpnCNk
So what is your point?
Money $$$$$$ equal debt.
US print 85 Billion $$$$$$$$$ every month.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesdorn/2012/12/27/ben-bernankes-qe4-another-step-toward-helicopter-money-and-away-from-freedom/
What happen to your money $$$$$$$ in the Bank?
Are u trying to talk about $$$ becomes smaller and need to hedge against deprecation of dollar?
Most people with vested interests will not want to see property prices to drop sharply as they worry valuation drop too much and banks will request a top up in difference.
But, think about this...this is reality....anything that goes up will come down eventually..this is market cycle.
You like it or not, this is the facts. U remember those people who bought condo and hdb in 1997. U should go ask them, how much they have MAKE today with today's valuation.
Most will tell u, with interests, they still LOSE $$$.
So please wake up.
On a SIMILAR note, people who MTB have vested interest to talk down the market.
The PAP gets a thumping in by-election! Shows people are unhappy with cost of living, with high immigrants, with high housing prices. Time for more CM or they will lose more seats! So prices will fall, fall, fall.
1. Excess supply; more than 100,000 units by end is 2014
2. Market uncertainty;us, Europe,china,Japan, Singapore
3. More launches in coming months
4. CM7
5. Sg ecomomy not doing very well either
6. Interests rates raising?
7. Strict FT policy
Anyone have more reasons for the property prices to come down?
We have heard so many reasons why ppty prices should go up, kinda sick of hearing those, every time go showflat, agents will tell me the same story.
I start this thread to hear more reasons for it to come down not go up.
Thanks.
In Sg context where there is a undersupply, in a uncertain economy, prices will remain flat.
Looking at the last 2 cycles, prices come down only when ppl can't keep up with installments due to lost of jobs or interest rates going up. This got nothing to do with the property market itself.
A strong case of property prices holding stable is the hedge against inflation.
And BCA/URA rules are ever tightening. Construction costs are climbing non stop.
We don't have to agree with the market, and the market dun have to agree with us. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong. Let's just stay happy riding the ups and downs.
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.
How come minority making noise and yet govt loses election by a much wider margin than expected? What happened? Okay, okay, housing is not the only thing. But it's one of the main things.
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.
Because of the drastic property cooling measures!!! :banghead:
The >90% citizen property owners are showing hands with their anger! :scared-1:
How come minority making noise and yet govt loses election by a much wider margin than expected? What happened? Okay, okay, housing is not the only thing. But it's one of the main things.
Originally Posted by sh
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.
So surprise to see a lot of newbies starting this forum with a very bearish note...plenty of reasons already input by famous B in his MTB thread, actually u got time u should read that, don't need to start a new one with same intention, d...:D
Anyway, I'm free now like u, I can start with my opinions. Good to have ppl like u to keep those optimistic guy in check...but, dont MTB again. Like what some of the bros here say, visit the showrooms, that's the best way to gauge the current sentiment. Sit behind comp waiting and talking about market don will not help...:rolleyes:
1) where got over supply?? U think that's what garmen want? Do your own calculation or if not, let your best friend google find some numbers for u.
2) market uncertainty? What? It has started since Lehman bro time and spread across to Europe and so on...it hasn't stop yet. But, things are improving each day and that's why we are seeing sort of bull run, not sure if it is but I assume it is...
3) more launches why, because of shortage ma, because the gate for quality new CZ and PR will again cont to be opened ma...:D
4) CM7 good, to moderate the price increase and to collect some money and importantly, let those first timer and MTB ppl buy.
5) sg economy not doing well for the past 1 yr or so if u notice. But, importantly, is the employment rate, enough said. With higher population, u will be able to minimize the external impact or so called, cushion external negative forces.
6) the situation now is very diff from the past. Interest will only raise when the economy turns good. If that's the case then it should be fine as good economy also means good employment fig...austerity against spending, this is the difference...with money printing on going, how to have high interest rate? They want u to spend, and only when u spend, u create jobs and in return, reduce your debts. See the diff? Last time they will ask u to save and save and thus only way to attract u to save more is to have higher interest rate...see the diff? Anyway, ths is from layman prospective and I'm a layman..... :o
7) strict FT policy is very straight forward la, to have quality...not quantity. But that doesn't mean that they will shut the gate with small opening.m:o
Just my two cents....
1. Excess supply; more than 100,000 units by end is 2014
2. Market uncertainty;us, Europe,china,Japan, Singapore
3. More launches in coming months
4. CM7
5. Sg ecomomy not doing very well either
6. Interests rates raising?
7. Strict FT policy
Anyone have more reasons for the property prices to come down?
We have heard so many reasons why ppty prices should go up, kinda sick of hearing those, every time go showflat, agents will tell me the same story.
I start this thread to hear more reasons for it to come down not go up.
Thanks.
Because of the drastic property cooling measures!!! :banghead:
The >90% citizen property owners are showing hands with their anger! :scared-1:
Originally Posted by sh
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.
I agree with you in thinking that the Govt misread the situation. The eligibility of first time buyers is delayed until later in the year, plus so many cooling measures to dampen the HDB upgraders. Although this is a silent group and not as vocal as the MTB group, their votes still count, perhaps even more so as we are talking about the main mass of voters.
The post result of the by-election of Ponggol East did suggest certain things were not "done right' since GE 2011. Lets' us just focus on the rising prices of property.
In trying not to crash the market, the various CMs since GE 2011 were mild ones with the believe that the demand would be met with the large supply few years down the road. The government unestimated the magnitude of investment demand. The result is that prices remain unaffordable even for first timers.
Does the Jan 2013 CM upset more people like upgraders? Looking at it deeper, the answer is 'no'. In the first place, upgraders are finding prices unaffordable to begin with. So the Jan CM (whether temporary or permanent) should be seen as an opportunity for price to soften which means more affordable prices.
To many investors, the Jan CM means game over for a lot of them. It only prevent them from buying more but the CM does not 'affect' them financially. These investors could invest in other instrunments or elsewhere.
The government does appear to make the mistake of not having more effective CM earlier that could have a greater impact on softening prices.
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.
How many Singaporean have more than 2 property.. You must understand if you only own 1 property the movement of price does affect you at all..
The post result of the by-election of Ponggol East did suggest certain things were not "done right' since GE 2011. Lets' us just focus on the rising prices of property.
In trying not to crash the market, the various CMs since GE 2011 were mild ones with the believe that the demand would be met with the large supply few years down the road. The government unestimated the magnitude of investment demand. The result is that prices remain unaffordable even for first timers.
Does the Jan 2013 CM upset more people like upgraders? Looking at it deeper, the answer is 'no'. In the first place, upgraders are finding prices unaffordable to begin with. So the Jan CM (whether temporary or permanent) should be seen as an opportunity for price to soften which means more affordable prices.
To many investors, the Jan CM means game over for a lot of them. It only prevent them from buying more but the CM does not 'affect' them financially. These investors could invest in other instrunments or elsewhere.
The government does appear to make the mistake of not having more effective CM earlier that could have a greater impact on softening prices.
I think you are right in saying that the measures were too muted in the beginning. But given the profile of residents in Punggol East, I speculate that the difficulty in upgrading or investing in private properties could have an impact, other than the hefty costs involved.
Moreover, first timers were promised that they were able to buy new flats in 2011 GE, but Mr Khaw seems to be holding that back to sometime in 2013. In the end, both groups desires were not met. It is a bad time to hold elections.
Another potential area to look into is the well meaning intention of the additional baby bonuses. The exact cut-off date (sometime in August) and the cut-off income for additional childcare subsidies are areas which might benefit some and turns off others.
WP also very clever in hinting that all these were only possible because of credible opposition, and if there was a stronger presence, more will be given.
I think you are right in saying that the measures were too muted in the beginning. But given the profile of residents in Punggol East, I speculate that the difficulty in upgrading or investing in private properties could have an impact, other than the hefty costs involved.
Moreover, first timers were promised that they were able to buy new flats in 2011 GE, but Mr Khaw seems to be holding that back to sometime in 2013. In the end, both groups desires were not met. It is a bad time to hold elections.
Another potential area to look into is the well meaning intention of the additional baby bonuses. The exact cut-off date (sometime in August) and the cut-off income for additional childcare subsidies are areas which might benefit some and turns off others.
WP also very clever in hinting that all these were only possible because of credible opposition, and if there was a stronger presence, more will be given.
The problem is that PAP should come up with those policy too late and is paying the price for ignoring people will.. 得民心得天下
Now if PAP come out with good policy, it is because we have stronger opp.. so more opp means better policy for the people
Now if PAP come out with lousy policy, it means we need even stronger opp.. so we need more opp...
hahaha.. For PAP it is a die die situation.. for WP it is a win win situation..
In Sg context where there is a undersupply, in a uncertain economy, prices will remain flat.
Looking at the last 2 cycles, prices come down only when ppl can't keep up with installments due to lost of jobs or interest rates going up. This got nothing to do with the property market itself.
A strong case of property prices holding stable is the hedge against inflation.
And BCA/URA rules are ever tightening. Construction costs are climbing non stop.
We don't have to agree with the market, and the market dun have to agree with us. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong. Let's just stay happy riding the ups and downs.
Sounds like USA.. Can't keep up with installment and kena foreclosure..
Saying is always easy.....only when u take reference to history then u realize if u have done enough, done wrong or whatever. What is important is about the future.
But, dont get it totally wrong. CM is not to make property price cheap and wait for u and me to go buy. CM is to prevent over heating of the property market. Whether the condo price remain affordable for everyone is not the objective. If you think the price is high, then don't buy. Garmen will not make a BMW as cheap as a Vios for u to buy just because of your own agenda...:)
So stop saying the price is high. If high don't buy. This market is not for the mass. Just like I cannot afford to buy BMW then I will get myself a Swift or whatever. See, complaining about the garmen actions and high price doesn't get u anywhere if u know the objectives of the garmen.
Just my opinions...:2cents:
The post result of the by-election of Ponggol East did suggest certain things were not "done right' since GE 2011. Lets' us just focus on the rising prices of property.
In trying not to crash the market, the various CMs since GE 2011 were mild ones with the believe that the demand would be met with the large supply few years down the road. The government unestimated the magnitude of investment demand. The result is that prices remain unaffordable even for first timers.
Does the Jan 2013 CM upset more people like upgraders? Looking at it deeper, the answer is 'no'. In the first place, upgraders are finding prices unaffordable to begin with. So the Jan CM (whether temporary or permanent) should be seen as an opportunity for price to soften which means more affordable prices.
To many investors, the Jan CM means game over for a lot of them. It only prevent them from buying more but the CM does not 'affect' them financially. These investors could invest in other instrunments or elsewhere.
The government does appear to make the mistake of not having more effective CM earlier that could have a greater impact on softening prices.
1. Excess supply; more than 100,000 units by end is 2014
2. Market uncertainty;us, Europe,china,Japan, Singapore
3. More launches in coming months
4. CM7
5. Sg ecomomy not doing very well either
6. Interests rates raising?
7. Strict FT policy
Anyone have more reasons for the property prices to come down?
We have heard so many reasons why ppty prices should go up, kinda sick of hearing those, every time go showflat, agents will tell me the same story.
I start this thread to hear more reasons for it to come down not go up.
Thanks.
These "reasons"... "reasons" from sghouse in 2008 Luxus Hills 1.6-mio...... "reasons" till condosg in 2011 Luxus Hills 2.5-mio.. "reasons" till now Luxus Hills 3-mio... still "reasons" :D
http://www.sg-house.com/classifieds/buy-and-sell-private-apartment-condominium/1243648-price-decreasing-for-singapore-property.html
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=12285
The PAP gets a thumping in by-election! Shows people are unhappy with cost of living, with high immigrants, with high housing prices. Time for more CM or they will lose more seats! So prices will fall, fall, fall.
not quite true. blindly CM-ing and CM-ing will not serve any purpose. indeed the supply is in place and time is needed for things to catch up. i have faith in the policies for housing, and by 2016 GE, the effort will be clear. kenobi has his way of doing things and it works.
i am more concerned about healthcare and transport. these things have not been worked on, unlike housing. uncle lui still want to charge higher transport fare for poorer service. i seriously wonder where he left his brain, in the navy? if by next election he doesn't show result, he will be replaced by kenobi
The problem is that PAP should come up with those policy too late and is paying the price for ignoring people will.. 得民心得天下
Now if PAP come out with good policy, it is because we have stronger opp.. so more opp means better policy for the people
Now if PAP come out with lousy policy, it means we need even stronger opp.. so we need more opp...
hahaha.. For PAP it is a die die situation.. for WP it is a win win situation..
tat's what i think too, and it worries me. indeed, do and you are f-ked. don't do, you are also f-ked. being stuck between a wall and a rock. PAP has got alot to worry about.
Saying is always easy.....only when u take reference to history then u realize if u have done enough, done wrong or whatever. What is important is about the future.
But, dont get it totally wrong. CM is not to make property price cheap and wait for u and me to go buy. CM is to prevent over heating of the property market. Whether the condo price remain affordable for everyone is not the objective. If you think the price is high, then don't buy. Garmen will not make a BMW as cheap as a Vios for u to buy just because of your own agenda...:) o
So stop saying the price is high. If high don't buy. This market is not for the mass. Just like I cannot afford to buy BMW then I will get myself a Swift or whatever. See, complaining about the garmen actions and high price doesn't get u anywhere if u know the objectives of the garmen.
Just my opinions...:2cents:
A society will be in trouble if there exist two different markets which will lead to social divide.
This is rational exchange so please do not make personal assumption of the existance of personal agenda.
Saying is always easy.....only when u take reference to history then u realize if u have done enough, done wrong or whatever. What is important is about the future.
But, dont get it totally wrong. CM is not to make property price cheap and wait for u and me to go buy. CM is to prevent over heating of the property market. Whether the condo price remain affordable for everyone is not the objective. If you think the price is high, then don't buy. Garmen will not make a BMW as cheap as a Vios for u to buy just because of your own agenda...:)
So stop saying the price is high. If high don't buy. This market is not for the mass. Just like I cannot afford to buy BMW then I will get myself a Swift or whatever. See, complaining about the garmen actions and high price doesn't get u anywhere if u know the objectives of the garmen.
Just my opinions...:2cents:
Sadly most of new gen expect bmw to be as cheap as vios, beat os free for them because they serve NS, so is their entitlement.
They expect a top notch childcare to be as cheap as possible without asking themseleves if they themseleves can also offer good service to employers at as cheap a salary as possible....
Think u still staying in a communistic environment or actually u are hoping to live in one of those in the world, not sure if it still exists...
Open your eyes, I'm not assuming. It's a reality.
A society like ours will always be divided. But I won't blame or be jealous of ppl in the higher income class. Most of us belong to the middle income so called sandwiched class. So is this already divided? If u want to climb higher, work harder la. Why try to pull down the other class and make it equal. Where got equality. Face it la, after so many years living in ths world u mean u don't know tat some are born with silver spoons and some have to work their way up?? This is not assumption.
work harder and stop thinking that everybody owe u something...anyway, enough said. :o :2cents:
A society will be in trouble if there exist two different markets which will lead to social divide.
This is rational exchange so please do not make personal assumption of the existance of personal agenda.
That's the biggest problem with this new gen of people ... If they cannot make they do not want others to have it ... The presence of liquidity and influx of foreigners does not help ... As they see that many benefitted from such a system while they don't ... Foreigners who are already well to do are attracted to our successful system ... Hence the sudden influx of such riches, though small number in any country except Singapore, pushes them out further...
Such huge gap are often very dangerous if left untamed
Think u still staying in a communistic environment or actually u are hoping to live in one of those in the world, not sure if it still exists...
Open your eyes, I'm not assuming. It's a reality.
A society like ours will always be divided. But I won't blame or be jealous of ppl in the higher income class. Most of us belong to the middle income so called sandwiched class. So is this already divided? If u want to climb higher, work harder la. Why try to pull down the other class and make it equal. Where got equality. Face it la, after so many years living in ths world u mean u don't know tat some are born with silver spoons and some have to work their way up?? This is not assumption.anyway, enough said. :o :2cents:
Think u still staying in a communistic environment or actually u are hoping to live in one of those in the world, not sure if it still exists...
Open your eyes, I'm not assuming. It's a reality.
A society like ours will always be divided. But I won't blame or be jealous of ppl in the higher income class. Most of us belong to the middle income so called sandwiched class. So is this already divided? If u want to climb higher, work harder la. Why try to pull down the other class and make it equal. Where got equality. Face it la, after so many years living in ths world u mean u don't know tat some are born with silver spoons and some have to work their way up?? This is not assumption.
work harder and stop thinking that everybody owe u something...anyway, enough said. :o :2cents:
Lajia my man..... U are on fire
Think u still staying in a communistic environment or actually u are hoping to live in one of those in the world, not sure if it still exists...
Open your eyes, I'm not assuming. It's a reality.
A society like ours will always be divided. But I won't blame or be jealous of ppl in the higher income class. Most of us belong to the middle income so called sandwiched class. So is this already divided? If u want to climb higher, work harder la. Why try to pull down the other class and make it equal. Where got equality. Face it la, after so many years living in ths world u mean u don't know tat some are born with silver spoons and some have to work their way up?? This is not assumption. work harder and stop thinking that everybody owe u something...anyway, enough said. :o :2cents:
Lajia my man..... U are on fire
Managing social divide and income disparity are essential aspects of a capitalism system of any governments. How well this 'division' is managed determine the sustainability of the system.
Since the advance of the internet, the PAP government saw the emerging of wider income disparity and sought ways to manage this division through social, economic and monetary policies. CM is but just one of the tool to manage this process.
When we talk about social divide, we has to look at the environment at a macro economic level.
indomie, please do not fire Lajia so fast. Give him a chance to learn economics.
hehehe...:) this is funny...
indomie, please do not fire Lajia so fast. Give him a chance to learn economics.
Managing social divide and income disparity are essential aspects of a capitalism system of any governments. How well this 'division' is managed determine the sustainability of the system.
Since the advance of the internet, the PAP government saw the emerging of wider income disparity and sought ways to manage this division through social, economic and monetary policies. CM is but just one of the tool to manage this process.
When we talk about social divide, we has to look at the environment at a macro economic level.
indomie, please do not fire Lajia so fast. Give him a chance to learn economics.
No matter what system we are in... I think property investment is still a valid method for wealth creation. In our limited productive age, it is unwise to ignore it. Unless of course if you are extremely talented in making money somewhere else. But for an average joe like me, it is important to get into it for financial growth. Social divide is not all about wealth disparity, we can be all equality wealthy but still socially divided. The fact that we are socially insensitive is more likely the caused of the problem.
On a SIMILAR note, people who MTB have vested interest to talk down the market.
All self interest and let me guess lemon wants to buy? Like Mr B
Rich dad has identified 4 methods that the rich employed to take money away from the poor and middle class and inflation is one of them. Inflation is simply a devaluation of the currency due to a larger supply of that currency in the market. This will translate to you paying more for products because there are now more money chasing after the same number of goods. Printing money is a direct way to increase inflation and those who first get to use the new money to purchase things will gain the most value. After the new money is introduced, it dilutes the pool of money and shrinks the purchasing power of every dollar of the currency you possess. For example, if the inflation rate is 3%, and your money in the bank is only earning 1% (is less than 1% in Singapore banks), your real value of wealth instead of increasing, is decreased by 2%.
http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2009/11/beware-of-inflation-the-silent-killer/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932012_Icelandic_financial_crisis
2008–2012 Icelandic financial crisis
Subprime mortgage crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
Lost Decade (Japan)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)
2008–2012 Spanish financial crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932012_Spanish_financial_crisis
2010-2012 Portuguese financial crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010-2012_Portuguese_financial_crisis
Economy of Italy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Italy
If Singapore have any of the above country way of doing thing, please sell your property asap. Don't waste time reading White paper, Black paper.....
Any Bank willing to loan me money to buy property, I will fly back to Singapore and buy again.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/singapore-inflation-cpi.png?s=sicpiyoy&d1=20060101&d2=20130131
If you have 100 000 SGD in 2006 what is the value now in SGD.
No matter what system we are in... I think property investment is still a valid method for wealth creation. In our limited productive age, it is unwise to ignore it. Unless of course if you are extremely talented in making money somewhere else. But for an average joe like me, it is important to get into it for financial growth. Social divide is not all about wealth disparity, we can be all equality wealthy but still socially divided. The fact that we are socially insensitive is more likely the caused of the problem.
Property investment is indeed a good asset class for long term investment. No doubt about it.
Social divide is often the result of income disparity which if not properly manage, could lead to social unrest like in many other countries. Social insensitiveness is the result of the lack of social acceptance of other customs and cultures within a community.
The discussion in this thread is about the reasons for property market to come down and hence I mentioned about the rising prices and the CM that came a little too late to address the problem. The latest CM shows the determination of the government to soften property price for the greater good of Singapore.
HDB upgraders have been seriously impacted by latest cooling measures!
1. Firstly, they want to sell their HDB flats at "good" (read "high") prices to foreigners & PRs. Yet their potential buyers are hit with all the ABSDs, and when they are willing to pay more, the extra money goes into the pocket of Govt rather than the seller!
2. Secondly, they want to buy private properties, but now they are hit with ABSDs and lower LTVs and cannot loan for more than 30 years or 65 years old. Last time 80% LTV, now 60%-40% LTV. I guess they must be very fed up that their dream of owning and living in a private property with amenities to enjoy is fading away plus if they buy they faces even higher risk than without the cooling measures!! You see, on the surface, all the lower LTVs and shorter loans seem to be good for the buyers because it forces the buyers to be more financially stronger, however this is flawed. By forcing buyers to come out with more cash, more money and less loan, they are forcing more buyers to become "marginal buyers" as they have less cash on hand to tie over when the crash comes! CASH on hand as liquidity is very very important, and you should know this if you are old hand in property investment. By all their cooling measures targeting lower and lower LTV and shorter loan period, more owners of private condos become "marginal owners", and more such owners will be in financial distress when the crash comes as they have much less CASH on hand than they will if without the cooling measures!
There are more reasons to be angry due to latest property cooling measures but the above 2 are the most serious killers! :banghead:
I agree with you in thinking that the Govt misread the situation. The eligibility of first time buyers is delayed until later in the year, plus so many cooling measures to dampen the HDB upgraders. Although this is a silent group and not as vocal as the MTB group, their votes still count, perhaps even more so as we are talking about the main mass of voters.
Originally Posted by teddybear
Because of the drastic property cooling measures!!! :banghead:
The >90% citizen property owners are showing hands with their anger! :scared-1:
Originally Posted by sh
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/singapore-inflation-cpi.png?s=sicpiyoy&d1=20060101&d2=20130131
If you have 100 000 SGD in 2006 what is the value now in SGD.
To be frank, the high inflation of Singapore in the recent years is purely due to
1) Property
2) Transportation
If you are looking at other things, I feel that the prices in Singapore is still quite stable.. I am still able to get $2/- noodle in the market near my home...
Even if you are taking about investment, they are also a lot way to invest. Why property? The reason is due to the ability to leverage.. It is easier to get loan for property than other investment and the rate is relative low too.. You must understand the government concern of the people over-leveraging. It happen so many times in Singapore short history and it just happen in USA.
HDB upgraders have been seriously impacted by latest cooling measures!
1. Firstly, they want to sell their HDB flats at "good" (read "high") prices to foreigners & PRs. Yet their potential buyers are hit with all the ABSDs, and when they are willing to pay more, the extra money goes into the pocket of Govt rather than the seller!
2. Secondly, they want to buy private properties, but now they are hit with ABSDs and lower LTVs and cannot loan for more than 30 years or 65 years old. Last time 80% LTV, now 60%-40% LTV. I guess they must be very fed up that their dream of owning and living in a private property with amenities to enjoy is fading away plus if they buy they faces even higher risk than without the cooling measures!! You see, on the surface, all the lower LTVs and shorter loans seem to be good for the buyers because it forces the buyers to be more financially stronger, however this is flawed. By forcing buyers to come out with more cash, more money and less loan, they are forcing more buyers to become "marginal buyers" as they have less cash on hand to tie over when the crash comes! CASH on hand as liquidity is very very important, and you should know this if you are old hand in property investment. By all their cooling measures targeting lower and lower LTV and shorter loan period, more owners of private condos become "marginal owners", and more such owners will be in financial distress when the crash comes as they have much less CASH on hand than they will if without the cooling measures!
There are more reasons to be angry due to latest property cooling measures but the above 2 are the most serious killers! :banghead:
Originally Posted by teddybear
Because of the drastic property cooling measures!!! :banghead:
The >90% citizen property owners are showing hands with their anger! :scared-1:
Originally Posted by sh
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.
To be frank a simple adjustment of LTV and less than 10% increase in tax can make it difficult for people to buy a 2nd house just show me the property is overheated... hahaha... For those who really can afford, this latest CM is really nothing.. at least still can buy.... wait government say all Singaporean can only buy 1 properties.. All foreigner cannot buy properties in Singapore...:scared-2:
Are HDB upgraders finding private property prices unaffordable? I don't think so. Rather, private property prices become unaffordable to them when:
1) Cash downpayment increased to 25%
2) Loan tenure max 30 years or 65 years old
3) Loan-to-valuation dropped from 80% to 60%
If you impute all the above, you can see that the above 3 can make any property that is initially affordable to them before the CM becomes unaffordable after the CM!
The post result of the by-election of Ponggol East did suggest certain things were not "done right' since GE 2011. Lets' us just focus on the rising prices of property.
In trying not to crash the market, the various CMs since GE 2011 were mild ones with the believe that the demand would be met with the large supply few years down the road. The government unestimated the magnitude of investment demand. The result is that prices remain unaffordable even for first timers.
Does the Jan 2013 CM upset more people like upgraders? Looking at it deeper, the answer is 'no'. In the first place, upgraders are finding prices unaffordable to begin with. So the Jan CM (whether temporary or permanent) should be seen as an opportunity for price to soften which means more affordable prices.
To many investors, the Jan CM means game over for a lot of them. It only prevent them from buying more but the CM does not 'affect' them financially. These investors could invest in other instrunments or elsewhere.
The government does appear to make the mistake of not having more effective CM earlier that could have a greater impact on softening prices.
Are HDB upgraders finding private property prices unaffordable? I don't think so. Rather, private property prices become unaffordable to them when:
1) Cash downpayment increased to 25%
2) Loan tenure max 30 years or 65 years old
3) Loan-to-valuation dropped from 80% to 60%
If you impute all the above, you can see that the above 3 can make any property that is initially affordable to them before the CM becomes unaffordable after the CM!
We had discussed housing affordability and Housing Affordability Index many times in this forum so I shall not get into similar discussion in this thread.
But there are now serious changes to the housing affordability and hence the Index!
If you include all those new property cooling measures, housing affordability becomes even more unaffordable and the Index should reflect that after all the cooling measures! Furthermore, the risks to buyers become even higher as they have less cash on hand! This is something that has never been reflected in all those index and is even more important than the index itself! Eg. we have retirees buying properties, ZERO job income but lots of cash on hand, so their affordability is ZERO? This just shows the stupid side of that Housing Affordability Index.... :p
We had discussed housing affordability and Housing Affordability Index many times in this forum so I shall not get into similar discussion in this thread.
Originally Posted by teddybear
Are HDB upgraders finding private property prices unaffordable? I don't think so. Rather, private property prices become unaffordable to them when:
1) Cash downpayment increased to 25%
2) Loan tenure max 30 years or 65 years old
3) Loan-to-valuation dropped from 80% to 60%
If you impute all the above, you can see that the above 3 can make any property that is initially affordable to them before the CM becomes unaffordable after the CM!
Teddybear make sense on the cashflow portion.
However there are people who have just enough 20% downpayment. Or, they can choose to buy 2 properties when they have 40% downpayment. By increasing the downpayment helps to safeguard the banks and absorb excess liquidity.
Why should private property be affordable.
This is what the American, Spainese, Italiano, Icelandese did to their country and see what happen.
When the gov say buy, go ahead and buy. When they say pls don't buy and you still have lots of money go ahead and buy. If bank can loan you money, buy,buy,buy else take a break and wait for the next cycle.
Teddybear make sense on the cashflow portion.
However there are people who have just enough 20% downpayment. By increasing the downpayment helps to safeguard the banks and absorb excess liquidity.
In Jun 2006, you need only 5% down and you don't see people buying.
Now 25% still want to buy,:beats-me-man:
Then why the need for ABSD? That is the most unnecessary of them all? SSD if you sell after 4 years need not pay still can understand. ABSD? Sounds like a good business revenue rather than anything else? :p
The CMs is to safe guard the banks and put the owners with less cash on hand to tie them over when the crash comes? They should ask the banks to vote for them in Punggol by-election rather than the citizens? :scared-2:
Teddybear make sense on the cashflow portion.
However there are people who have just enough 20% downpayment. Or, they can choose to buy 2 properties when they have 40% downpayment. By increasing the downpayment helps to safeguard the banks and absorb excess liquidity.
Don't buy? Wait it becomes 40% CASH downpayment? :p
In Jun 2006, you need only 5% down and you don't see people buying.
Now 25% still want to buy,:beats-me-man:
In Jun 2006, you need only 5% down and you don't see people buying.
Now 25% still want to buy,:beats-me-man:
Southbank sold out very quickly.
Back then, printing money is not a trend yet.
In Jun 2006, you need only 5% down and you don't see people buying.
Now 25% still want to buy,:beats-me-man:
I missed june 2006. I was just a fresh grad.
Any suggestion what the gov should do.
Then why the need for ABSD? That is the most unnecessary of them all? SSD if you sell after 4 years need not pay still can understand. ABSD? Sounds like a good business revenue rather than anything else? :p
The CMs is to safe guard the banks and put the owners with less cash on hand to tie them over when the crash comes? They should ask the banks to vote for them in Punggol by-election rather than the citizens? :scared-2:
I am not happy with the absd and also the loan cap at 65years old too.
However, increasing downpayment is the right way for current printing money era.
I missed june 2006. I was just a fresh grad.
I also miss it, blur blur go and put 20% down. Should down 5% for 4 now can retire in France go back Singapore for Holiday.
I also miss it, blur blur go and put 20% down. Should down 5% for 4 now can retire in France go back Singapore for Holiday.
Your loan may not go through right?
Thats why flipping is rampant during that period. Many buy and flip without the need to take loan.
Any suggestion what the gov should do.
Disallow developers to sell off the plan.
Your loan may not go through right?
Thats why flipping is rampant during that period. Many buy and flip without the need to take loan.
DPS don't need to apply loan. Also blur blur apply loan and pay higher interest.
Flipping in 1995 is more rampant. You need to just give your name to the developer with no money down.
Disallow developers to sell off the plan.
then you are pushing back supply that could be used to match demand now. that effectively will drive prices higher.
2. Secondly, they want to buy private properties, but now they are hit with ABSDs and lower LTVs and cannot loan for more than 30 years or 65 years old. Last time 80% LTV, now 60%-40% LTV. I guess they must be very fed up that their dream of owning and living in a private property with amenities to enjoy is fading away plus if they buy they faces even higher risk than without the cooling measures!! You see, on the surface, all the lower LTVs and shorter loans seem to be good for the buyers because it forces the buyers to be more financially stronger, however this is flawed. By forcing buyers to come out with more cash, more money and less loan, they are forcing more buyers to become "marginal buyers" as they have less cash on hand to tie over when the crash comes! CASH on hand as liquidity is very very important, and you should know this if you are old hand in property investment. By all their cooling measures targeting lower and lower LTV and shorter loan period, more owners of private condos become "marginal owners", and more such owners will be in financial distress when the crash comes as they have much less CASH on hand than they will if without the cooling measures!
can't really agree on this bro... they force buyers to come up with more cash, not to throw into longkang but to lower the monthly instalment. that in itself is reducing the risk of holding the ppty becoz with a 60% LTV, lower rental yield still can help owner cover instalment. i dun see any flaw with that.
you are asssuming every buyer got discipline to put aside cash as standby. most immature investors dun do that. they max out to the max. so garmen help them by creating a buffer for them.
of course 7% stamp duty to garmen is another story lah.
Teddybear make sense on the cashflow portion.
However there are people who have just enough 20% downpayment. Or, they can choose to buy 2 properties when they have 40% downpayment. By increasing the downpayment helps to safeguard the banks and absorb excess liquidity.
agree. sis rosy, you and i see eye to eye on many things. hahaha
but 7 percent ABSD does not apply to first time buyers of pte residential property to my knowledge no?
but 7 percent ABSD does not apply to first time buyers of pte residential property to my knowledge no?
1st property not effected. This 7% only effect Citizen 2nd ppty purchase.
No, they force many more property buyers/owners to become marginal owners/buyers because they end up with less cash on hand! This is a fact! This shows that you are just not a season investor. Let me put it simpler to you:
1) You buy a property for $1m. You have $500k. You pay $200k, loan $800k (i.e 80% LTV), hold cash $300k. Your $300k CASH can last you for a long time without rental, regardless of amount of loan instalment (even if you spread the loan out for only 15 years and have super high loan instalment!). You are not a marginal owner.
2) You buy a property for $1m. You have $500k. You are forced to pay $500k and can only loan $500k (i.e. 50% LTV). You end up with $0 cash on hand and you immediately become very very marginal owner! No rental only you go fly kite regardless of amount of loan instalment (even if you spread loan over 50 years to have lower loan instalment also useless!). Sell your property cheap cheap to foreigners!
Now, you are saying govt has no choice? That is stupid reply.
I can tell you, if I am them and I genuinely want to rid out margin buyer, I say can still can loan 80%, but please get a bank letter stating that you have liquid assets (or cash) equivalent to 20% of the value of the property you are buying and the liquid asset has been with the bank/brokerage/(whatever institution) for at least 1 year (to avoid last minute transfer for show only). So my suggested policy will still rid out marginal buyers without disadvantaging Singaporeans via lower LTV right? What ABSD? For milking revenue rather than genuine cooling measure? Isn't my "cooling measure" more citizens-friendly and make most property owners happy to vote for me? :p You see, because my suggested "cooling measure" policy has no hidden agenda, not trying to milk extra revenue via ABSD, and do not disadvantage local property owners, make them instantly become marginal property owners/buyers... :D
can't really agree on this bro... they force buyers to come up with more cash, not to throw into longkang but to lower the monthly instalment. that in itself is reducing the risk of holding the ppty becoz with a 60% LTV, lower rental yield still can help owner cover instalment. i dun see any flaw with that.
you are asssuming every buyer got discipline to put aside cash as standby. most immature investors dun do that. they max out to the max. so garmen help them by creating a buffer for them.
of course 7% stamp duty to garmen is another story lah.
Now, you are saying govt has no choice? That is stupid reply.
I can tell you, if I am them and I genuinely want to rid out margin buyer, I say can still can loan 80%, but please get a bank letter stating that you have liquid assets (or cash) equivalent to 20% of the value of the property you are buying and the liquid asset has been with the bank/brokerage/(whatever institution) for at least 1 year (to avoid last minute transfer for show only). So my suggested policy will still rid out marginal buyers without disadvantaging Singaporeans via lower LTV right? What ABSD? For milking revenue rather than genuine cooling measure? Isn't my "cooling measure" more citizens-friendly and make most property owners happy to vote for me? :p You see, because my suggested "cooling measure" policy has no hidden agenda, not trying to milk extra revenue via ABSD, and do not disadvantage local property owners, make them instantly become marginal property owners/buyers... :D
Well said. This suggestion is very ideal and still met the overall objective.
This ABSD is really going all out to milk us. It's real absurd that citizen doing investment at own country and get punished and TAXED heavily.
maybe CM7 more for first time buyers to go in ... wait for CM8 then might moderate a bit for property investors loh .. relax a bit heh
maybe CM7 more for first time buyers to go in ... wait for CM8 then might moderate a bit for property investors loh .. relax a bit heh
cm7 is to prevent further investments. if there is a cm8, it will further weed out investors. this is to ensure price stabilize and also citizens have a home to stay. not have a home as investment. house as investment only spurs price increase.
thomastansb
29-01-13, 21:51
CM8 should come soon. Remove ABSD for Singaporean 2nd property and increase foreigners to 25% ABSD and PR 2nd property to 15% ABSD. For foreigners 2nd property, 40% ABSD.
For foreigners 2nd property, 40% ABSD.
You kidding? No one pays this unless it's money laundering or drug money. Even that there are better places to put.
:D
CM8 will probably focus on commercial office and retail space.
.....if 50% of the population are going to be foreigners by 2030, all the more the govt should ensure locals are not penalized in the measures taken.....
CM8 will probably focus on commercial office and retail space.
That is assuming commercial/retail pty prices escalate say 10% per quarter ? So far, this is not the case.
DKSG
That is assuming commercial/retail pty prices escalate say 10% per quarter ? So far, this is not the case.
DKSG
But so far sold prices are assuming impossible rental psf.
.....if 50% of the population are going to be foreigners by 2030, all the more the govt should ensure locals are not penalized in the measures taken.....
Which is why cm7 left SC first timers untouched. They have to buy now
Which is why cm7 left SC first timers untouched. They have to buy now
CM7 in Jan 2013, SC first timer already lost so much.
CM7 should be in Jun 2006 than got value to SC first timer.
But so far sold prices are assuming impossible rental psf.
You keep hearing this term call yield compression on commercial and even residential properties.
Actually, this is a normal syndrome. When investing in property, the yield is just one side of the equation. The other side is current and prospective interest rates.
Just ask yourself ... if u own a property that gives you $20K net profit a year, would you care if yield is 3.5% and interest rate is 1.05%?
When interest rates are low, people are willing to accept lower yield and naturally yield would decrease.
Am I right ?
DKSG
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.
The Majority prefer sell low, buy low. Hoping this same for their children who will start family.
thomastansb
31-01-13, 09:04
No. I want to sell high, buy low. No one want to sell low, buy low. Let's be honest about it. You might ask, how is that possible? Am I bullshitting?
You buy BTO low, sell 5 years later high.
I sell my HDB high, my children buy BTO low.
That is the system now. But people (the minority including those who don't understand the market at all) are making so much noise that they are asking for buy low, sell low. They will repent in 7-8 years time. Their parents will have to sell low although their children can buy low.
The Majority prefer sell low, buy low. Hoping this same for their children who will start family.
i agree...when u haven't buy, u want the market to crash, when u have bought, u want the marekt to cheong. isnt this the way that most ppl hope for? if not buy for what, rent better...:doh:
where go ppl want to buy low sell low...:confused: what mentality is this??
pardon me for being too direct.:2cents:
No. I want to sell high, buy low. No one want to sell low, buy low. Let's be honest about it. You might ask, how is that possible? Am I bullshitting?
You buy BTO low, sell 5 years later high.
I sell my HDB high, my children buy BTO low.
That is the system now. But people (the minority including those who don't understand the market at all) are making so much noise that they are asking for buy low, sell low. They will repent in 7-8 years time. Their parents will have to sell low although their children can buy low.
thomastansb
31-01-13, 09:20
That is the whole purpose of ABSD. Make them put their money at some other places and don't come in.
If 2010, I tell people there will be 15% ABSD, people will also ask am I kidding?
You kidding? No one pays this unless it's money laundering or drug money. Even that there are better places to put.
:D
thomastansb
31-01-13, 09:24
There are 120,000 confirmed HDB units reaching MOP from 2018 till 2022. Might be more but must see what HDB do in 2014/15.
120k is what we normally built in 20 years since the 90s.
They will soon realise their dream of buying at 300k and selling at 300k if the foreigners tap is tighten further. But that is what Singaporeans want anyway. No foreigners, cheap HDB. Finally we have an opportunity to buy a cheap resale for rental. That time should be back to 1 year MOP. Just leave it vacant 1 year then rent out for life.
i agree...when u haven't buy, u want the market to crash, when u have bought, u want the marekt to cheong. isnt this the way that most ppl hope for? if not buy for what, rent better...:doh:
where go ppl want to buy low sell low...:confused: what mentality is this??
pardon me for being too direct.:2cents:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4m2r0jW1AeM/UPlN-WFKIlI/AAAAAAAAJ6s/IQM1stzGwLU/s1600/Key+stats+2012.png
120k is what we normally built in 20 years since the 90s.
Where you get the 120k?
There are 120,000 confirmed HDB units reaching MOP from 2018 till 2022. Might be more but must see what HDB do in 2014/15.
120k is what we normally built in 20 years since the 90s.
They will soon realise their dream of buying at 300k and selling at 300k if the foreigners tap is tighten further. But that is what Singaporeans want anyway. No foreigners, cheap HDB. Finally we have an opportunity to buy a cheap resale for rental. That time should be back to 1 year MOP. Just leave it vacant 1 year then rent out for life.
It is not how you/I want things to go. Most Singaporean are home stayers, can afford one roof only. It doesn’t make sense to them to pay rocket high prices for public home, as land belong to Gov. anyway, and there it goes bringing the private property price down in long run.
Most are unwilling to pay rocket high price for private either, if public houses are worth to buy, just like 70s and 80s where properties were not very hot subject to investors.
For investment, it usually punishes those who leave the market late or too late. Quick big easy money depends on good time to buy and sell. Many may have mis the boat, without knowing the pricing fundamentals.
It is not how you/I want things to go. Most Singaporean are home stayers, can afford one roof only. It doesn’t make sense to them to pay rocket high prices for public home, as land belong to Gov. anyway, and there it goes bringing the private property price down in long run.
Most are unwilling to pay rocket high price for private either, if public houses are worth to buy, just like 70s and 80s where properties were not very hot subject to investors.
For investment, it usually punishes those who leave the market late or too late. Quick big easy money depends on good time to buy and sell. Many may have mis the boat, without knowing the pricing fundamentals.
The big investors may probably had left the market mostly few years back at the peak time, leaving behind the small time investors now in the market. No worry, they will no lose or gain much either in long run. Money still safe, just a little stuck only.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4m2r0jW1AeM/UPlN-WFKIlI/AAAAAAAAJ6s/IQM1stzGwLU/s1600/Key+stats+2012.png
Where did you get the stats from?
If the stats are correct, it's quite incredible to know that after small lee took over, he added almost 1 million people but built only 30,000 residential units.
Quite unbelievable?? :eek:
Where did you get the stats from?
If the stats are correct, it's quite incredible to know that after small lee took over, he added almost 1 million people but built only 30,000 residential units.
Quite unbelievable?? :eek:
The number of commercial units built during last 10 years is also very under.
Guess it is really going to be true that the next wave is commercial.
DKSG
The number of commercial units built during last 10 years is also very under.
Guess it is really going to be true that the next wave is commercial.
DKSG
I think the commercial refers to HDB coffeeshops. For some reasons, the new estates built in the last couple of years had almost no coffeeshops!
Perhaps the fine dining everyday dudes don't eat at coffeeshops so they don't see the necessity. :doh:
http://www10.hdb.gov.sg/ebook/ar2011/keystats.html
http://www10.hdb.gov.sg/eBook/AR2012/keystatistics.html
I think the commercial refers to HDB coffeeshops. For some reasons, the new estates built in the last couple of years had almost no coffeeshops!
Perhaps the fine dining everyday dudes don't eat at coffeeshops so they don't see the necessity. :doh:
There will not be more shops. Is it in the white paper? Didn't read it.
I believe going forward, it will be more malls to make more efficient use of space. The govt will relinquish the role to the private developers to set the rent and retail mix based on market needs. Govt have got one less hassle of dealing with disgruntled HDB shophouse owners or tenants and have to do maintenance.
What govt will want is the Hawker centers that will provide low-cost affordable meals to the masses.
The government has been under-building HDB shops and coffeeshops.
hanafi_d2000
02-02-13, 09:27
The citizens have been overcomplaining:doh:
Our housing minister had promised to ram up hdb supply.:scared-2:
Our housing minister had promised to ram up hdb supply.:scared-2:
No reason to ramp up as our TFR and historical population increase are quite low. It is for creating a buffer to absorp future new citizens and their BTO demand.
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