PDA

View Full Version : Land set aside to build 700,000 more homes by 2030



dtrax
29-01-13, 11:37
Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/land-set-aside-build-700000-more-homes-2030-20130129

Singapore's planners have set aside land for 700,000 more homes to be built by 2030, in anticipation of a 6.9 million population by then.

The National Population and Talent Division said on Tuesday that the government has done its long-term planning to accommodate the bigger population.

The rail network is set to double to 360km, and new towns will be developed even while more green spaces are built.

In the nearer term, it is ramping up infrastructure developments to support a population of 5.8 million to 6 million in 2020, while also tackling the infrastructure bottlenecks

http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/straitstimes.com/files/pop3.jpg

Some steps it has taken include adding 800 new buses over the next five years, building 110,000 more public housing units and 90,000 private homes by 2016, and adding 4,100 new hospital beds by 2020.

The government will continue to explore new technologies and innovative solutions to optimise Singapore's land use beyond 2030, said the NPTD.

It released these figures in its White Paper on Tuesday, which sets out Singapore's population and immigration policies for the future.

More details on Singapore's land use planning is set to be released later this week.

cnud
29-01-13, 11:38
http://202.157.171.46/whitepaper/downloads/population-white-paper.pdf

6m by 2020.
7m by 2030.

Huat ah!

Inn0cent
29-01-13, 11:39
I think we can expect all property prices to go up again.

cnud
29-01-13, 11:41
Properties counters chionging now.

cnud
29-01-13, 11:47
Master Plan 2013 akan datang.

economist
29-01-13, 11:56
Govt has deliberately put the number below 7mil at 2030, but bulls will just grab anything they can grab to talk up the price.

6.5-6.9m by year 2030, the pace of increase of population per year is far fewer than the upcoming supply per year, at least in the next few years.

See previous thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

And with ABSD of CM7, the price pressure is apparently on the downside.

I know bulls with vested interest will debate or even attack, but, please face the numbers and face the downside.

Shanhz
29-01-13, 11:59
Govt has deliberately put the number below 7mil at 2030, but bulls will just grab anything they can grab to talk up the price.

6.5-6.9m by year 2030, the pace of increase of population per year is far fewer than the upcoming supply per year, at least in the next few years.

See previous thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

And with ABSD of CM7, the price pressure is apparently on the downside.

I know bulls with vested interest will debate or even attack, but, please face the numbers and face the downside.

the upcoming supply.. how much of it is to supply the current under-supply, or to meet new demand?

i not bull.. just an innocent question.

"Writing on his blog, Mr Khaw added that by 2016, some 200,000 housing units would have come on-stream: 80,000 private properties, 10,000 Executive Condominium units and about 110,000 public housing units."

can assume EC and BTO are already booked by existing demand. 80k condos... dunno how much is existing demand, how much over supply. plus the double count on those who will sell after upgrading.

Laguna
29-01-13, 12:07
700,000 homes for 17 years, = 54,000 units per year
100,000 in take a year, say family size of 2 = 50,000 homes...

economist
29-01-13, 12:09
Not every booked unit is pent-up demand.

An easier way is to look at total house stock vs total population, and it is easy to see the the ratio is increasing in the next few years, the increase of house stock will be much more than increase of population in the next few years, and it is a big negative to the housing market.

btw, one cannot use 2 as the family size to derive the units vs population. Please refer to my previous post:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

economist
29-01-13, 12:13
Btw, 6.5 to 6.9m by 2030 is a surprisingly low figure. DBS has used 7m by 2030 in their previous research report, and even with 7m, DBS acknowledge the near term price pressure, and it predicts price fall of 5% in 2013.

hopeful
29-01-13, 12:15
why can't they plan housing supply until 2020, or 2030?
why housing figures until 2016 only?

teddybear
29-01-13, 12:16
Bulls will always have bull-shit reasons.
Bears will always have bear-shit reasons.

The person who coined the term "bull-shit" must be a great bear! :o

There is no need to argue with Mr Market, he will determine the answer regardless of whatever bull-shit and bear-shit you all argue here! :p



Not every booked unit is pent-up demand.

An easier way is to look at total house stock vs total population, and it is easy to see the the ratio is increasing in the next few years, the increase of house stock will be much more than increase of population in the next few years, and it is a big negative to the housing market.

btw, one cannot use 2 as the family size to derive the units vs population. Please refer to my previous post:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

hyenergix
29-01-13, 12:17
Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/land-set-aside-build-700000-more-homes-2030-20130129

Singapore's planners have set aside land for 700,000 more homes to be built by 2030, in anticipation of a 6.9 million population by then.

The National Population and Talent Division said on Tuesday that the government has done its long-term planning to accommodate the bigger population.

The rail network is set to double to 360km, and new towns will be developed even while more green spaces are built.

In the nearer term, it is ramping up infrastructure developments to support a population of 5.8 million to 6 million in 2020, while also tackling the infrastructure bottlenecks



Some steps it has taken include adding 800 new buses over the next five years, building 110,000 more public housing units and 90,000 private homes by 2016, and adding 4,100 new hospital beds by 2020.

The government will continue to explore new technologies and innovative solutions to optimise Singapore's land use beyond 2030, said the NPTD.

It released these figures in its White Paper on Tuesday, which sets out Singapore's population and immigration policies for the future.

More details on Singapore's land use planning is set to be released later this week.

I doubt the projected figures are realistic. It will mean about 1.6% growth in pop annually. Our average for the past 20 years was about 2.5%. Someone could be playing down the numbers.

Laguna
29-01-13, 12:19
I doubt the projected figures are realistic. It will mean about 1.6% growth in pop annually. Our average for the past 20 years was about 2.5%. Someone could be playing down the numbers.

Definitely, the number has been played down due to the BE.

With the ageing population, we need to have a bigger intake for replacement as well

eng81157
29-01-13, 12:23
Govt has deliberately put the number below 7mil at 2030, but bulls will just grab anything they can grab to talk up the price.

6.5-6.9m by year 2030, the pace of increase of population per year is far fewer than the upcoming supply per year, at least in the next few years.

See previous thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

And with ABSD of CM7, the price pressure is apparently on the downside.

I know bulls with vested interest will debate or even attack, but, please face the numbers and face the downside.

oh please, i've already rubbished your calculations, using mere mathematics. the rate of building is only for 3 years, and you are assuming that it will be constant till 2030

LEARN-2-STATS 101 :doh: :doh:

cnud
29-01-13, 12:24
How about the catching up effect due to past under supply?

eng81157
29-01-13, 12:24
why can't they plan housing supply until 2020, or 2030?
why housing figures until 2016 only?

are u even sure PAP will be in power by 2016?

jeaprp
29-01-13, 12:24
why can't they plan housing supply until 2020, or 2030?
why housing figures until 2016 only?

GE 2016, isn't it obvious.
hopefully price soften by then.:cool:

economist
29-01-13, 12:25
Another simple way of looking at it, is to look at the growth rate of population.

The surprisingly low 6.5-6.9m population target at 2030, implies an annual compound growth rate of less than 1.2%~1.5% (note, one should use annual compound rate), this compares to population growth of 2.4% in the last three years.

So, it is really a negative number. Government is now very cautious.

minority
29-01-13, 12:25
700,000 homes for 17 years, = 54,000 units per year
100,000 in take a year, say family size of 2 = 50,000 homes...

Intake is 25K new Citizen and 30K PR. /2 u are looking at 25K homes. for this group.

u have 100% suplus on plan.

Laguna
29-01-13, 12:27
Intake is 25K new Citizen and 30K PR. /2 u are looking at 25K homes. for this group.

u have 100% suplus on plan.

IT depends on the number. Most of them bring in their families, so I take a number of 2 per household.....

economist
29-01-13, 12:28
btw, some posts will get ignored like those from eng81157, due to their illogical way of reasoning, and uncivilized wordings, so save your effort, this shall be the last time your name is even mentioned in my post. Period.

teddybear
29-01-13, 12:28
Yah lor, but they need to ensure majority is happy first after ramping up public transport and give more goodies first wah. After citizens are happy that population increase give them better paying job, more investment profits, govt willing to spend more on public transport and infrastructure and more benefits like child-care grants etc to make Singapore swiss-standard-of-living (and not swiss-cost-of-living only), they may update you in 2020 that population will be projected to 9m in 2030 instead!

By then, almost all of us (except a very small minority) will be very happy to welcome more, and we will ask for 12m in 2050 so that Singapore achieve "Heaven-standard-of-living" (even better than swiss-standard-of-living)!


Btw, 6.5 to 6.9m by 2030 is a surprisingly low figure. DBS has used 7m by 2030 in their previous research report, and even with 7m, DBS acknowledge the near term price pressure, and it predicts price fall of 5% in 2013.

hyenergix
29-01-13, 12:36
Another simple way of looking at it, is to look at the growth rate of population.

The surprisingly low 6.5-6.9m population target at 2030, implies an annual compound growth rate of less than 1.2%~1.5% (note, one should use annual compound rate), this compares to population growth of 2.4% in the last three years.

So, it is really a negative number. Government is now very cautious.

The 1.6% growth rate (base on the version I use) would have been close to the resident's growth rate for the past 20 years. It means that we are not allowing additional immigrant workers from this year onwards. This is simply not realistic. I have a lot of doubts about the whole exercise. It seems that there is a lot of confusion that is not resolved.

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html

leesg123
29-01-13, 12:36
Btw, 6.5 to 6.9m by 2030 is a surprisingly low figure. DBS has used 7m by 2030 in their previous research report, and even with 7m, DBS acknowledge the near term price pressure, and it predicts price fall of 5% in 2013.
And how does it matter to u?

Laguna
29-01-13, 12:53
http://sphotos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/s480x480/76145_584910834857242_209146497_n.jpg

hyenergix
29-01-13, 12:59
http://sphotos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/s480x480/76145_584910834857242_209146497_n.jpg

Haha very interesting design. I tot there might be handrails outside the train for people to hang on.

http://data.travelchinaguide.com/community/photo/8110/81103211334883.jpg

eng81157
29-01-13, 13:02
btw, some posts will get ignored like those from eng81157, due to their illogical way of reasoning, and uncivilized wordings, so save your effort, this shall be the last time your name is even mentioned in my post. Period.

WHAHAHAH!! illogical reasoning?! from someone who can't do simple statistics.

you took an average for housing construction numbers between 2013 to 2016, and multiplied forward till 2030.

this is fundamental stats : is the rate of construction remaining constant till 2030?!

if not, your claim of oversupply is rubbish.

ichigo55
29-01-13, 13:04
this pict is really cool .. how you wish you can have this type of mrt now right?

Now to have a simplistic look why we are in undersupply right now ...

With some estimation from some publicly available figures
5.31m population / 1.2m total dwellings = 4.425
Any ratio betw 3.9 and 4.2 we are ok ... when we go below 3.9, we are oversupply. So at the moment we are still undersupply I suppose.

So with 200k supplies upcoming,
5.31 / 1.4 = 3.79 -> alas oversupply ...

so to keep this minimally within healthy range
3.9 * 1.4 = 5.46m population -> an undemanding 150k influx for the 3 years.

The white paper certainly proves that we cannot stop this bleeding ...


http://sphotos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/s480x480/76145_584910834857242_209146497_n.jpg

DuaNehNehChioBu
29-01-13, 13:05
Properties counters chionging now.

Hope Property prices will CRASH Down the drain like there is no tomorrow.

Whatever prices goes up, must come DOWN :tsk-tsk:

Jaykj
29-01-13, 13:09
Govt has deliberately put the number below 7mil at 2030, but bulls will just grab anything they can grab to talk up the price.

6.5-6.9m by year 2030, the pace of increase of population per year is far fewer than the upcoming supply per year, at least in the next few years.

See previous thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591

And with ABSD of CM7, the price pressure is apparently on the downside.

I know bulls with vested interest will debate or even attack, but, please face the numbers and face the downside.

Let me state upfront, I'm a bull :D

The upcoming supply is to make up for the `under-supply' in previous years in early 2000s. Even LHL today admitted the numbers grew faster than they expected. So there is no issue of over-supply, at best, meeting the pent-up demands unfufilled in the last few years. In fact, over lunch when I heard the news, I showed it to my lunch kaki who were waiting for price to fall since cashing out in 2010, exclaimed "F&^K!! I'm not waiting anymore, I'm going to D'Leedon later to see if I can grab any NOW!"

I asked him, why the rush (although I know the reasons)? He said, "The longer I wait, the harder for me to buy with lower LTV and shorter tenure." Now that its public knowledge we are heading for 6,9mio, everyone who can afford, will want to buy more properties.

You can continue to sit on the fence and be a bear, but trust me, the longer you wait, the higher the price you will eventually buy at....seen it all too often. And when the last bear buy, the market will crash. So do update us in this forum when you have bought some time in the future coz I will start to unload. Meanwhile, I'll be happy to continue to collect rental from my tenant.

Lemonlaw
29-01-13, 13:16
Let me state upfront, I'm a bull :D

The upcoming supply is to make up for the `under-supply' in previous years in early 2000s. Even LHL today admitted the numbers grew faster than they expected. So there is no issue of over-supply, at best, meeting the pent-up demands unfufilled in the last few years. In fact, over lunch when I heard the news, I showed it to my lunch kaki who were waiting for price to fall since cashing out in 2010, exclaimed "F&^K!! I'm not waiting anymore, I'm going to D'Leedon later to see if I can grab any NOW!"

I asked him, why the rush (although I know the reasons)? He said, "The longer I wait, the harder for me to buy with lower LTV and shorter tenure." Now that its public knowledge we are heading for 6,9mio, everyone who can afford, will want to buy more properties.

You can continue to sit on the fence and be a bear, but trust me, the longer you wait, the higher the price you will eventually buy at....seen it all too often. And when the last bear buy, the market will crash. So do update us in this forum when you have bought some time in the future coz I will start to unload. Meanwhile, I'll be happy to continue to collect rental from my tenant.

Thanks for the reminder, I shall check my account see if my tenant has pay the rental. :cheers5:

eng81157
29-01-13, 13:17
this pict is really cool .. how you wish you can have this type of mrt now right?

Now to have a simplistic look why we are in undersupply right now ...

With some estimation from some publicly available figures
5.31m population / 1.2m total dwellings = 4.425
Any ratio betw 3.9 and 4.2 we are ok ... when we go below 3.9, we are oversupply. So at the moment we are still undersupply I suppose.

So with 200k supplies upcoming,
5.31 / 1.4 = 3.79 -> alas oversupply ...

so to keep this minimally within healthy range
3.9 * 1.4 = 5.46m population -> an undemanding 150k influx for the 3 years.

The white paper certainly proves that we cannot stop this bleeding ...

your assumption would be 4 persons to form a household nucleus with no increase in population?

how about using this 200k to forecast population growth? that would bring us to 5.8 - 6.1m (my assumption is 3 to form a unit instead, since TFR is 1.2).

Shanhz
29-01-13, 13:17
Let me state upfront, I'm a bull :D

The upcoming supply is to make up for the `under-supply' in previous years in early 2000s. Even LHL today admitted the numbers grew faster than they expected. So there is no issue of over-supply, at best, meeting the pent-up demands unfufilled in the last few years. In fact, over lunch when I heard the news, I showed it to my lunch kaki who were waiting for price to fall since cashing out in 2010, exclaimed "F&^K!! I'm not waiting anymore, I'm going to D'Leedon later to see if I can grab any NOW!"

I asked him, why the rush (although I know the reasons)? He said, "The longer I wait, the harder for me to buy with lower LTV and shorter tenure." Now that its public knowledge we are heading for 6,9mio, everyone who can afford, will want to buy more properties. .

talk is easy lah, bro. tell us when your kaki REALLY gets a unit. :D

Lemonlaw
29-01-13, 13:22
I think by end of 1 quarter, we should have a clearly pictures to see if REALLY so many people rush in buy properties due to this population white paper.

Human can lies but statics can't.

Jaykj
29-01-13, 13:30
talk is easy lah, bro. tell us when your kaki REALLY gets a unit. :D

In jest lah bro.....how can he go when he has to do a client presentation in 1 hour's time. But the conversation is real and I just reporduced here vebatim.

But you get my drift.....some of my friends and relatives has been renting since 2008 and waiting to buy after cashing out their profits. A few of them are hoping prices will fall to 2009 level to make up for the profits eroded due to inflation and rental expenses. Some wants to buy for investment but now they cant due to lower LTV, shorter tenure and higher transaction costs....

Jaykj
29-01-13, 13:32
I think by end of 1 quarter, we should have a clearly pictures to see if REALLY so many people rush in buy properties due to this population white paper.

Human can lies but statics can't.

Actually the number of people that buys is not as important an indicator as the price index. I'll be more interested to see if price decrease (and by how much) or not...

eng81157
29-01-13, 13:34
Actually the number of people that buys is not as important an indicator as the price index. I'll be more interested to see if price decrease (and by how much) or not...

the target population is 6m by 2020.

do you think there is enough housing for another 700k persons?

Vincegoh
29-01-13, 13:50
this pict is really cool .. how you wish you can have this type of mrt now right?

Now to have a simplistic look why we are in undersupply right now ...

With some estimation from some publicly available figures
5.31m population / 1.2m total dwellings = 4.425
Any ratio betw 3.9 and 4.2 we are ok ... when we go below 3.9, we are oversupply. So at the moment we are still undersupply I suppose.

So with 200k supplies upcoming,
5.31 / 1.4 = 3.79 -> alas oversupply ...

so to keep this minimally within healthy range
3.9 * 1.4 = 5.46m population -> an undemanding 150k influx for the 3 years.

The white paper certainly proves that we cannot stop this bleeding ...

i think our no. of total dwellings is more than 1.2mil.. shld be closer to 1.4m?

Vincegoh
29-01-13, 13:56
Key Annual Indicators Population (Mid Year Estimates) & Land Area (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes.html#people)
2012



Resident Population

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/images/charts/chart1.gif (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/charts/popn-area.html#popnA)
Click for enlarged view
Total Population (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html) 1 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note1)/ ('000)
5,312.4
Annual Growth (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html) 1 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note1)/ (%)
2.5
Singapore Residents (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html) 1 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note1)/ ('000)
3,818.2
Annual Growth (%) (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html) 1 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note1)/
0.8
Singapore Citizens ('000)
3,285.1
Annual Growth (%)
0.9
Singapore Permanent Residents ('000)
533.1
Annual Growth (%)
0.2
Population Density (Per Sq Km)


7,422
Land Area (Sq km)
715.8
back to top (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#top) Resident Population Profile (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes.html#people)
2012

Population Age Pyramid

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/images/charts/chart2.gif (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/charts/popn-area.html#popnB)
Click for enlarged view

Old Age Support Ratio

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/images/charts/chart3.gif (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/charts/popn-area.html#popnC)
Click for enlarged view
Age Structure Below 20 yrs 2 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note2)/ ('000)
885.2
20-64 yrs 2 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note2)/ ('000)
2,554.4
65 yrs & over 2 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note2)/ ('000)
378.6
Median Age[/URL] 2 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note2)/ (Yrs)
38.4
Old-Age Support Ratio2 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note2)/
(Number of Residents Aged 20-64 Years Per Elderly Resident Aged 65 Years & Over)

6.7
Sex Ratio [URL="http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note2"]2 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/keyind.html#note2)/
(Males per 1,000 Females)
970

Rysk
29-01-13, 14:00
Hope Property prices will CRASH Down the drain like there is no tomorrow.

Whatever prices goes up, must come DOWN :tsk-tsk:

Not only you said that..

Last time some ppl also said that.. Said from 5-rm 50k.. Said till 5-rm 500k.. till now some 5-rm hitting 1-mio today..

MR B also said before.. Said from Luxus Hills 1.6-mio.. Said till Luxus Hills 3.0-mio.. said till go MIA.. till recently change his nick to economist :D

Vincegoh
29-01-13, 14:04
i think our no. of total dwellings is more than 1.2mil.. shld be closer to 1.4m?

as of 3Q 2010 is around 1.15mil dwellings.. so over the past 2 yrs plus, should be around 1.25mil... my bad. 1.4mil will be after including the additional 200k housing till 2016.

3Q2010

Exec Condo: 10,430 units
Landed: 69,701 units
Non-landed: 186,812 units
Total incl EC 264,764 units
As of the last HDB Annual Report, there are 890,212 units of HDB flats under management by the HDB on 31March2010.

GIG
29-01-13, 14:08
Hope Property prices will CRASH Down the drain like there is no tomorrow.

Whatever prices goes up, must come DOWN :tsk-tsk:

It will be good when prices go up gradually.
It will be benefit the humble people in this Island.
We just need to tax more and more the
The greedy rich people trying to flip
The property market and only thinking
Of their own self interest.
Tax them more till they broke and
Go elsewhere.

Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 15:07
I feel sorry for my generation (those in their 20s and 30s). We spend half of our life in a never ending construction mess in Singapore. And by the time the contruction mess ends say 30 years later, the prime of our lives has passed.

minority
29-01-13, 15:11
I feel sorry for my generation (those in their 20s and 30s). We spend half of our life in a never ending construction mess in Singapore. And by the time the contruction mess ends say 30 years later, the prime of our lives has passed.


u mean our parents never go though a building phase too? from the 70s to 80s? life goes on.

lajia
29-01-13, 15:26
this is life...:D
our parents bought 4 rm at 45K and we are paying 450K for that same unit now...:D

See, we are surviving. Be positive. If that 45K then, is still 45K today, then probably your parents will be cursing and swearing why the property price never increase. :simmering:

so, morale of the story is, life goes on and be part of it, dont be left behind just because you cannot accept reality...dont worry, the boat will straigthen itself when it reaches the port!

:2cents: :)


I feel sorry for my generation (those in their 20s and 30s). We spend half of our life in a never ending construction mess in Singapore. And by the time the contruction mess ends say 30 years later, the prime of our lives has passed.

Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 15:32
Nope. Do not insult the time when Singapore is in the 70s and 80s. Not sure if you look a pictures of the 70s and 80s before - beautiful with nice low lying buildings even in Raffles Place. Even the HDB flats have character and places were never overcorwded. Where buildings have real artistic merit and no just ugly glass boxes like today. The crazy building phase where Singapore becoming increasingly crowded and suffocating is quite a recent phenomena. Perhaps from the late 1990s onwards. Yes, our parents went through a building phase but they also went through a time when life wasn't about a never-ending construction mess and importing never-ending foreigners to boost our GDP growth.

And I grew up in the 1980s. And I'm somewhat glad that I experienced a bit of the magical period.



u mean our parents never go though a building phase too? from the 70s to 80s? life goes on.

star
29-01-13, 15:40
Nope. Do not insult the time when Singapore is in the 70s and 80s. Not sure if you look a pictures of the 70s and 80s before - beautiful with nice low lying buildings even in Raffles Place. Even the HDB flats have character and places were never overcorwded. Where buildings have real artistic merit and no just ugly glass boxes like today. The crazy building phase where Singapore becoming increasingly crowded and suffocating is quite a recent phenomena. Perhaps from the late 1990s onwards. Yes, our parents went through a building phase but they also went through a time when life wasn't about a never-ending construction mess and importing never-ending foreigners to boost our GDP growth.

And I grew up in the 1980s. And I'm somewhat glad that I experienced a bit of the magical period.

Sometime mindset need to be change. We cannot always look into the past.
Motorola replaced by nokia, nokia replaced by iphone, iphone replaced by samsung.

Vincegoh
29-01-13, 15:46
Nope. Do not insult the time when Singapore is in the 70s and 80s. Not sure if you look a pictures of the 70s and 80s before - beautiful with nice low lying buildings even in Raffles Place. Even the HDB flats have character and places were never overcorwded. Where buildings have real artistic merit and no just ugly glass boxes like today. The crazy building phase where Singapore becoming increasingly crowded and suffocating is quite a recent phenomena. Perhaps from the late 1990s onwards. Yes, our parents went through a building phase but they also went through a time when life wasn't about a never-ending construction mess and importing never-ending foreigners to boost our GDP growth.

And I grew up in the 1980s. And I'm somewhat glad that I experienced a bit of the magical period.

congrats to u bro.. we same era one. me early 1980s. :cheers5:

eng81157
29-01-13, 15:50
more people means more cars!!

woohoo!! COE $200k akan datang

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-cars-buy-overseas-cost-160000476.html

Maserati, anyone?

Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 16:02
More like whose mindset need to change? Perhaps PAP mindset needs to change as well? Still growing at all cost to drive GDP? I mean this has been the strategy for the past 10 years - perhaps need to rethink? I dunno of any developed world growing at that pace and opening up the floodgates for PR and new citizens like we do.


Sometime mindset need to be change. We cannot always look into the past.
Motorola replaced by nokia, nokia replaced by iphone, iphone replaced by samsung.

lajia
29-01-13, 16:12
we only have human resources as resources...which country is like us and as well develop as us?? If we do not import and yet cannot reproduce enough, then how to grow? There are always countries which are less develop, less crowded and maybe suit your preference i suppose. You might want to rethink. There is a price to pay for growth, i reckon that, but how much you can take, it is individual. Just my opinion. :2cents:
i personally, personally dont see anything wrong...:2cents:
We can be as stagnant as our neighbours and perhaps, we dont even need this govt you might say...:) is that what you want? How to be so exact? give and take la...;)


More like whose mindset need to change? Perhaps PAP mindset needs to change as well? Still growing at all cost to drive GDP? I mean this has been the strategy for the past 10 years - perhaps need to rethink? I dunno of any developed world growing at that pace and opening up the floodgates for PR and new citizens like we do.

bullman
29-01-13, 16:12
Most of the new SCs will definitely not be going for HDB.
Maybe some will be going for PCs.
However, for most of them, the ultimate prize/"compensation" for converting to SC will be you know what.

hopeful
29-01-13, 16:15
Most of the new SCs will definitely not be going for HDB.
Maybe some will be going for PCs.
However, for most of them, the ultimate prize/"compensation" for converting to SC will be you know what.

just make sure have children below 16 to qualify.

DC33_2008
29-01-13, 16:41
Watch out for vertical compact city in the making with deep basement. Plot ratio of land near all existing and new mrt stns to increase in Concept Plan 2013.:D
Nope. Do not insult the time when Singapore is in the 70s and 80s. Not sure if you look a pictures of the 70s and 80s before - beautiful with nice low lying buildings even in Raffles Place. Even the HDB flats have character and places were never overcorwded. Where buildings have real artistic merit and no just ugly glass boxes like today. The crazy building phase where Singapore becoming increasingly crowded and suffocating is quite a recent phenomena. Perhaps from the late 1990s onwards. Yes, our parents went through a building phase but they also went through a time when life wasn't about a never-ending construction mess and importing never-ending foreigners to boost our GDP growth.

And I grew up in the 1980s. And I'm somewhat glad that I experienced a bit of the magical period.

Mr.Keh
29-01-13, 17:12
The population increase will help support property prices all the way to 2030. HUAT AR!

DuaNehNehChioBu
29-01-13, 18:09
More people comes in, more inflation, hopefully property market will crash badly

Simi
29-01-13, 18:09
Let me state upfront, I'm a bull :D

The upcoming supply is to make up for the `under-supply' in previous years in early 2000s. Even LHL today admitted the numbers grew faster than they expected. So there is no issue of over-supply, at best, meeting the pent-up demands unfufilled in the last few years. In fact, over lunch when I heard the news, I showed it to my lunch kaki who were waiting for price to fall since cashing out in 2010, exclaimed "F&^K!! I'm not waiting anymore, I'm going to D'Leedon later to see if I can grab any NOW!"

I asked him, why the rush (although I know the reasons)? He said, "The longer I wait, the harder for me to buy with lower LTV and shorter tenure." Now that its public knowledge we are heading for 6,9mio, everyone who can afford, will want to buy more properties.

You can continue to sit on the fence and be a bear, but trust me, the longer you wait, the higher the price you will eventually buy at....seen it all too often. And when the last bear buy, the market will crash. So do update us in this forum when you have bought some time in the future coz I will start to unload. Meanwhile, I'll be happy to continue to collect rental from my tenant.

Hi
was there a few nights ago
Impressed with the landscape, the design (3 and 3+study) and the discount. There are still some #01 unit available (high floor)


Whats holding me back is the Number of Units ---1715 and the 13% additional stamp duty :doh:

rockinsg
29-01-13, 18:28
Most of the new SCs will definitely not be going for HDB.
Maybe some will be going for PCs.
However, for most of them, the ultimate prize/"compensation" for converting to SC will be you know what.
Most if new PR citizen probably will have income limit issue. Can't apply for HDB.

timmy
29-01-13, 18:57
Watch out for vertical compact city in the making with deep basement. Plot ratio of land near all existing and new mrt stns to increase in Concept Plan 2013.:D

Do u think there will be more SERs announcement upcoming? I mean the CM has tightened leverage for purchasers of HDB with less than 60 years lease, suggesting that gahment has no qualms about letting HDB flats fall below that lease period. But the increase in population will definitely require more redevelopment of existing HDB plots to make space for more intensively built flats. How to square the two?

Any views from anyone?

proper-t
29-01-13, 19:03
watch out for 2013 and future URA masterplan...its amazing what just a slight increase in plot ratio can do to increase building density.

ichigo55
29-01-13, 19:11
So my figures still quite close ... So to all the bears and many of my bearish friends ...
There's really not much oversupply to talk about ...
The message is very clear ... The small window is created for you ... This is the best they can do for you


as of 3Q 2010 is around 1.15mil dwellings.. so over the past 2 yrs plus, should be around 1.25mil... my bad. 1.4mil will be after including the additional 200k housing till 2016.

3Q2010

Exec Condo: 10,430 units
Landed: 69,701 units
Non-landed: 186,812 units
Total incl EC 264,764 units
As of the last HDB Annual Report, there are 890,212 units of HDB flats under management by the HDB on 31March2010.

Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 20:09
More enbloc to come? Hold on to your freehold assets...
watch out for 2013 and future URA masterplan...its amazing what just a slight increase in plot ratio can do to increase building density.

DC33_2008
29-01-13, 20:12
Not for now as they still have land in ponggol, bidadari and simpang.
Do u think there will be more SERs announcement upcoming? I mean the CM has tightened leverage for purchasers of HDB with less than 60 years lease, suggesting that gahment has no qualms about letting HDB flats fall below that lease period. But the increase in population will definitely require more redevelopment of existing HDB plots to make space for more intensively built flats. How to square the two?

Any views from anyone?

puffer_fish
29-01-13, 20:57
can anyone enlighten me on the benefits of enbloc for owners?

myfirstpc
29-01-13, 21:29
There will be shopping on the triple-deck MRT. SMRT will lease out pushcart space at CapitalMall's prices onboard. More revenue income for the operator. Providing basic transport and retail therapy at the same time. All onboard, it's GSS.


http://sphotos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/s480x480/76145_584910834857242_209146497_n.jpg

phantom_opera
29-01-13, 21:34
more people means more cars!!

woohoo!! COE $200k akan datang

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-cars-buy-overseas-cost-160000476.html

Maserati, anyone?

era of high COE is here to stay :beats-me-man:

timmy
29-01-13, 22:05
can anyone enlighten me on the benefits of enbloc for owners?

Developers pay much higher price compared to market for all the units in the redevelopment project, taking into account the higher allowable plot ratio of the land.

puffer_fish
29-01-13, 22:16
Developers pay much higher price compared to market for all the units in the redevelopment project, taking into account the higher allowable plot ratio of the land.


ok but what if my unit is the "premium" block ?

currently the unit that i have is transacted aound $80 to $100 more psf.

that mean i lugi in enbloc

timmy
29-01-13, 22:22
ok but what if my unit is the "premium" block ?

currently the unit that i have is transacted aound $80 to $100 more psf.

that mean i lugi in enbloc

They typically go by share value which is based on unit size. But everyone is a winner, it's just how much u gain.

puffer_fish
29-01-13, 22:25
ok, recently saw the owner of a development company coming over to my estate quite often.

so enbloc is good for owners with lousy facing but bad for owners with good facing:(

triple70
30-01-13, 07:06
Academically, a high population to achieve that critical mass is a valid planning assumption.

But based on existing infrastructure and planning, the fear is that we are squeezing more ppl into the same areas.

My assertion is that Sg can support such a population, but we need to redo the masterplan for another CBD say.. in Woodlands/ Ponggol or along ther Circle Line etc. The existing funnelling effect of everyone heading south towards SMU is the main issue of congestion.

If commercial activity is diverted northwards, then we are truly spreading out congestion.

For now.. all areas zoned for recreational use shd be full developed in advance to ensure sufficient chill out zones.

Shanhz
30-01-13, 07:35
My assertion is that Sg can support such a population, but we need to redo the masterplan for another CBD say.. in Woodlands/ Ponggol or along ther Circle Line etc. The existing funnelling effect of everyone heading south towards SMU is the main issue of congestion.

If commercial activity is diverted northwards, then we are truly spreading out congestion.



this one already done deal what.. JLD, and extended into iskandar.
singapore=HK island
iskandar = new territories

eng81157
30-01-13, 08:28
this one already done deal what.. JLD, and extended into iskandar.
singapore=HK island
iskandar = new territories

iskandar would be shenzhen
new territories would be kusu island, st john's island, pulau ubin

chiaberry
30-01-13, 08:32
ok, recently saw the owner of a development company coming over to my estate quite often.

so enbloc is good for owners with lousy facing but bad for owners with good facing:(

You can refuse to sign and ask for higher compensation. But it would delay the whole process. See what is being offered first. Don't fret about it at this stage. You have had the privilege of enjoying the good facing and will continue to enjoy it until the time when the en bloc is finalized. Which could be a long way off. ;)

Shanhz
30-01-13, 09:57
iskandar would be shenzhen
new territories would be kusu island, st john's island, pulau ubin

your new territories very small leh. no use one lah. somemore no road access. :D

DKSG
30-01-13, 10:21
You can refuse to sign and ask for higher compensation. But it would delay the whole process. See what is being offered first. Don't fret about it at this stage. You have had the privilege of enjoying the good facing and will continue to enjoy it until the time when the en bloc is finalized. Which could be a long way off. ;)

My recommendation is dont sell unless it is really worth it.
Most en bloc folks end up moving to faraway places.

Also, re-check valuation again 3 months after the Population White Paper is published (yesterday).

DKSG

PS : Wishing you a HUAT HUAT HUAT 2013!

minority
30-01-13, 11:38
Academically, a high population to achieve that critical mass is a valid planning assumption.

But based on existing infrastructure and planning, the fear is that we are squeezing more ppl into the same areas.

My assertion is that Sg can support such a population, but we need to redo the masterplan for another CBD say.. in Woodlands/ Ponggol or along ther Circle Line etc. The existing funnelling effect of everyone heading south towards SMU is the main issue of congestion.

If commercial activity is diverted northwards, then we are truly spreading out congestion.

For now.. all areas zoned for recreational use shd be full developed in advance to ensure sufficient chill out zones.

so watch for the master plan. and budget that will give a good indication on how the planning works out. I think they would now shift to build 1st and plan a head verse the old model of grow 1st and build later.

hopeful
30-01-13, 12:34
anybody calculated how much money is going to rake in?

if need additional 700k homes, and conservative 20% is for private condo.
700.000 x 20% x 1000sf x 700psf = 98billion

i think higher than 20% will be private since the rise in citizen and pr do not justify building 560.000 homes

2012 june: 3.82mil citizens and pr
2030 4.4mil citizens and pr

an increase in 580k citizens and pr does not justify an increase in 560k HDB flats.
so if increase by 580k residents, then probably need 290k HDB flats.
so balance is 700k - 290k = 410k units private housing?

revenue from land sales for private housing 410k units x 1000sf each unit x 700psf (from land sales) = 287 billion ?
plus stamp duty, 410k x 1000 x 1200psf 3% = 14.8bil.

figures seems funny.
the proportion of hdb to private housing also doesnt add up....
unless government build more HDB flat for rental to house the non-resident population.

hopeful
30-01-13, 14:40
government mention 700.000 by 2030.
yet 200.000 by 2016.
so from 2017-2030, built 500.000 homes.

so 2013-2016, it is 50,000 a year for 4 years.
so 2017-2030, it is 35,714 a year for 14 years.

so construction industry gear up their capabilities for 50,000 a year.
wont it be under utilized from 2017-2030?

what would that imply?

radha08
30-01-13, 15:12
They typically go by share value which is based on unit size. But everyone is a winner, it's just how much u gain.

2 toyota corolla go to scrap yard...one is brand new condition other cannot drive need to tow in...but both due for scrap...guess what both get same $$$:D:D:D...same for enbloc:scared-1:

Arcachon
30-01-13, 15:27
Singapore's planners have set aside land for 700,000 more homes to be built by 2030, in anticipation of a 6.9 million population by then.

So what happen after building 700,000 more homes. What is the balance of land able to build homes in Singapore.:scared-4:

If 700,000 more homes and after that no more land to build than property sure go up.

windcar
30-01-13, 15:29
why are you guys framing the population increase interms of % growth per year? If going by % growth, then population growth will be exponetial. Are we still in the baby boom years when exponetial population growth took place? In all developed countries, it is all about arithmetic increase instead of exponetial increase. According to the projected 6.9m, it means that the intake will not slow down, but remain at the same rate, duh.

Arcachon
30-01-13, 15:45
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/2960_4625511468718_1756394026_n.jpg

The glass of water is half full or half empty.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HZ6bFRBEs1g/Trnrbjmqv-I/AAAAAAAASZY/jN8ZxS4rreY/s1600/Glass+Half+Full.jpg

radha08
30-01-13, 15:52
Govt has given its endorsment...spore property will HUAT there is NO turning back now...gentleman enjoy the ride...:D:D:D

Arcachon
30-01-13, 15:55
Govt has given its endorsment...spore property will HUAT there is NO turning back now...gentleman enjoy the ride...:D:D:D

Some people see the water in the glass half full, some see half empty.

The one who know the truth get to drink the water, while the others still looking at the glass of water think whether it is half full or half empty.

radha08
30-01-13, 16:03
Some people see the water in the glass half full, some see half empty.

The one who know the truth get to drink the water, while the others still looking at the glass of water think whether it is half full or half empty.

the one in france drink champagne....wahahaahha:D:D:D

bernbaum
30-01-13, 16:06
government mention 700.000 by 2030.
yet 200.000 by 2016.
so from 2017-2030, built 500.000 homes.

so 2013-2016, it is 50,000 a year for 4 years.
so 2017-2030, it is 35,714 a year for 14 years.

so construction industry gear up their capabilities for 50,000 a year.
wont it be under utilized from 2017-2030?

what would that imply?

hmm I'm wondering about that too.. I think companies may easily shift gear because construction is cheap labour intensive industry and i don't think there's much barrier to hire and retrench foreign labours. Construction companies will eventually need to seek overseas opportunities since land is so scarce and so only so much homes can be built.

hopeful
30-01-13, 16:35
700.000 homes
each home 1000sf
plot ratio 2.8
bonus area 10%

would need an area of 700k x 1000 / 2.8 / 1.1 = 227mil sqft = 21mil sqm = 2100ha = 21 sq kilometer

not that big, half the size of a oil palm plantation manage by a plantation manager:).
usually plantation manager manage 4000ha.

Pro888
30-01-13, 16:47
We will know tomorrow as land use plan will be out by then.

bernbaum
30-01-13, 16:53
We will know tomorrow as land use plan will be out by then.
Does the land use plan theoretically have any tangible effects (e.g. pressure or support) on home prices? I'm an amateur so any enlightenment is appreciated :)

hopeful
30-01-13, 16:57
Does the land use plan theoretically have any tangible effects (e.g. pressure or support) on home prices? I'm an amateur so any enlightenment is appreciated :)

yes, if plot ratio increase, then enbloc potential.
for example, plot ratio 1.2 to 2.8 has more enbloc potential than plot ratio increase from 2.1 to 2.8

those that dont increase will be at disadvantage.

Pro888
30-01-13, 17:16
Does the land use plan theoretically have any tangible effects (e.g. pressure or support) on home prices? I'm an amateur so any enlightenment is appreciated :)

Land use plan ---> MP2013

Surely home prices will be affected. I don't see much changes from MP2008 but paying particular attention to newly announced mrt lines. These are the areas where the next 500k homes or so will be located. When ppl come, amenities will come along, but together with jams etc. No where to hide, only i can think of is Ama keng.

To sum it up, price will cheong like no tomorrow for the next few years.

DKSG
30-01-13, 17:17
Some people see the water in the glass half full, some see half empty.

The one who know the truth get to drink the water, while the others still looking at the glass of water think whether it is half full or half empty.

Wah Piangzzz ... government already telling you the water is FULL FULL, HUAT HUAT already! Thats why the CM has to come out before the Population Paper la!

Can you imagine if CM is not out ? What will people do after knowing the Population Paper ? Rush to sell off their properties ? Or rush to buy the second/third/fourth ?

DKSG

Arcachon
30-01-13, 17:21
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wOfk_9WUyJ0/TZaZW3F-A9I/AAAAAAAAABY/flBQcXru9aw/s400/huat%2Bah.jpg

Ringo33
30-01-13, 17:23
Land use plan ---> MP2013

Surely home prices will be affected. I don't see much changes from MP2008 but paying particular attention to newly announced mrt lines. These are the areas where the next 500k homes or so will be located. When ppl come, amenities will come along, but together with jams etc. No where to hide, only i can think of is Ama keng.

To sum it up, price will cheong like no tomorrow for the next few years.

Any idea when they are releasing mp 2013?

DKSG
30-01-13, 17:25
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wOfk_9WUyJ0/TZaZW3F-A9I/AAAAAAAAABY/flBQcXru9aw/s400/huat%2Bah.jpg

Very Chinese New Year !

Pro888
30-01-13, 17:28
Any idea when they are releasing mp 2013?

Most likely 2H

Pro888
30-01-13, 17:31
Wah Piangzzz ... government already telling you the water is FULL FULL, HUAT HUAT already! Thats why the CM has to come out before the Population Paper la!

Can you imagine if CM is not out ? What will people do after knowing the Population Paper ? Rush to sell off their properties ? Or rush to buy the second/third/fourth ?

DKSG

Fully agree. Relentlessly of the latest CM, prices will continue it northern path.

Arcachon
30-01-13, 17:49
"Today our population is over 5 million. In the future, 6 million or so should not be a problem. Beyond that, we'll have to think more carefully," Mr Lee added.


http://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-s-ideal-population-size--six-million--says-pm-lee.html

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/2960_4625511468718_1756394026_n.jpg