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reporter2
05-03-13, 17:09
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/archive/tuesday/specials/property/first-gls-sites-tender-cooling-measures-20130301

Published March 01, 2013

First GLS sites on tender since cooling measures

Response to Kim Tian, Sengkang West sites will indicate developer sentiment

By ong chor hao


THE first Government Land Sales (GLS) sites since the last round of property cooling measures have been put up for sale. And analysts are casting a keen eye on the tender.

The two 99-year leasehold residential sites at Kim Tian Road and Sengkang West Way were released yesterday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and the Housing and Development Board (HDB) under the Confirmed List of the GLS programme for the first half of the year. They could yield about 1,100 homes.

"The bids and tender participation rate will give an indication of the sentiment among developers," said Nicholas Mak, SLP International's head of research.

Another analyst, Png Poh Soon, head of research and consultancy at Knight Frank Singapore, said that if prices of land continue to trend upwards, then that would be an early signal to the market that residential homes would not come down so fast.

Even with the latest cooling measures enforced in January, he expected developers to continue to bid for land, either to build up their land bank or to secure attractive sites quickly.

But they will be taking the pulse of homebuyers first through the response to upcoming launches.

"And if the response is not lukewarm and is still strong, then I think that pretty much gives them stronger confidence to enter (to bid)," Mr Png said.

The land parcel at Kim Tian Road, put up for sale by URA, has a maximum gross floor area (GFA) of about 473,000 sq ft and could yield 500 units.

This site should see strong interest due to its prime location near Tiong Bahru MRT station, said Knight Frank's Mr Png, who expected six to eight bids for the site. SLP's Mr Mak foresaws five to 10 bids for the site, which has a maximum gross plot ratio (GPR) of 4.0.

The top bid could be around $870 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr) to $920 psf ppr, for an absolute sum of $411 million to $435 million.

The Sengkang West Way site released by HDB has a maximum GFA of about 536,000 sq ft, and can yield about 555 homes. The land parcel lies along Sungei Punggol and is near Layar and Fernvale LRT stations.

The waterfront location makes it fairly interesting, said Knight Frank's Mr Png, who expected four to six bids.

But competition will not be as fierce as at Tiong Bahru because developers will be more inclined towards "safer bets" such as prime sites near established MRT lines.

SLP's Mr Mak expected the tender for the Sengkang site, with a maximum GPR of 3.0, to fetch top bids of $400 psf ppr to $450 psf ppr, or about $214 million to $241 million, with four to eight bidders.

The tender for the Kim Tian Road plot will close on April 18, while that for the Sengkang West Way plot will close on April 11.

kane
05-03-13, 19:56
for cooling measure to have an impact, I think the psf ppr should be $300.

Lemonlaw
05-03-13, 21:24
for cooling measure to have an impact, I think the psf ppr should be $300.

When will the result be out?

Ringo33
05-03-13, 21:29
When will the result be out?

The tender for the Kim Tian Road plot will close on April 18, while that for the Sengkang West Way plot will close on April 11

CCR
05-03-13, 22:03
I think kim tian plot can fetch 900 psd

kane
05-03-13, 22:43
900psf ppr is like nothing happen. that would be nuts. i am going to guess 750psf.

Pro888
05-03-13, 23:05
By looking at some details, i go for $828 psf ppr

DKSG
06-03-13, 00:20
900psf ppr is like nothing happen. that would be nuts. i am going to guess 750psf.

750 confirm wrong price.

Abv 900 is more likely. I think can go beyond 920.

DKSG

kane
06-03-13, 07:55
Considering all this talk about unsold inventory for CCR, I'll be impressed but also surprised they would come in at above 900psf ppr.

eng81157
06-03-13, 09:27
that Kim Tian plot CMI :banghead: :banghead:

it straddles across one huge long kang. either u have an underground carpark in the long kang, or u have whiffs of the long kang everyday (if uncovered)

4wheels
06-03-13, 09:43
for cooling measure to have an impact, I think the psf ppr should be $300.

this for the SK plot? Possible!

eng81157
06-03-13, 09:48
this for the SK plot? Possible!

even if there is one sole bid at $300psf, the govt is likely to reject it since it's way below market value.

bargain hunter
06-03-13, 09:50
unsold inventory in CCR is mostly big units. this one, buyer still has the chance to chop it up small small and its not in CCR.


Considering all this talk about unsold inventory for CCR, I'll be impressed but also surprised they would come in at above 900psf ppr.

bargain hunter
06-03-13, 10:02
our forumer guesses:

bargain hunter 845
Pro888 888.88
jeaprp 900 +/- 50
Ilikeu 900 to 950
kane 970
leesg123 988

actual sales price was 882.8psf ppr with Pro888 being the closest guess.

bro kane, u were so aggressive for this one saying it can be sold at 970. this commonwealth plot was sold after the measures also. why are u so conservative on the kim tian plot. to me, the kim tian plot is superior to the commonwealth plot, no?

Current guesses for kim tian plot:

Kane 750psf (feel free to amend your bid, haven't closed yet :D )
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter 850psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf

Bro Pro888, you are guessing 6% less than the commonwealth plot, any reasons? is it becoz u think this plot is inferior or ppty sentiment has cooled further since or.....? :confused:

Lovelle
06-03-13, 10:07
my guess is $790psf

jeaprp
06-03-13, 10:14
our forumer guesses:

bargain hunter 845
Pro888 888.88
jeaprp 900 +/- 50
Ilikeu 900 to 950
kane 970
leesg123 988

actual sales price was 882.8psf ppr with Pro888 being the closest guess.

bro kane, u were so aggressive for this one saying it can be sold at 970. this commonwealth plot was sold after the measures also. why are u so conservative on the kim tian plot. to me, the kim tian plot is superior to the commonwealth plot, no?

Current guesses for kim tian plot:

Kane 750psf (feel free to amend your bid, haven't closed yet :D )
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter 850psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf

Bro Pro888, you are guessing 6% less than the commonwealth plot, any reasons? is it becoz u think this plot is inferior or ppty sentiment has cooled further since or.....? :confused:

$866 for me:cool:

bargain hunter
06-03-13, 10:24
Kane 750psf (feel free to amend your bid, haven't closed yet )
Lovelle 790psf
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter 850psf
Jeaprp 866psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf

Rosy
06-03-13, 10:44
Should be 900-950psf before CM7.

So, 850psf.

Above 1400psf is getting harder to sell as investors are mostly gone.

mcmlxxvi
06-03-13, 11:02
Kane 750psf (feel free to amend your bid, haven't closed yet )
Lovelle 790psf
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter 850psf
Jeaprp 866psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf
mcm 988psf

phantom_opera
06-03-13, 11:03
Phantom 868psf, 900psf if Dow continues to chiong for this/next week

bargain hunter
06-03-13, 12:06
Kane 750psf (feel free to amend your bid, haven't closed yet )
Lovelle 790psf
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter & Rosy 850psf
Jeaprp 866psf
Phantom 868 or 900psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf
mcm 988psf

kane
06-03-13, 12:40
Kane 750psf (feel free to amend your bid, haven't closed yet )
Lovelle 790psf
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter 850psf
Jeaprp 866psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf

No need lah. I intend to stick with the number. Haha. If the developers don't think they need the additional psf buffer then, I can only conclude their cash war chest gao gao.

CondoWE
06-03-13, 13:53
my guess is 930~980psf.

bargain hunter
06-03-13, 13:58
Kane 750psf
Lovelle 790psf
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter & Rosy 850psf
Jeaprp 866psf
Phantom 868 or 900psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf
CondoWe 930 to 980psf
Mcm 988psf

CCR
06-03-13, 16:44
But its right opp Tiong Bahru MRT....

Twin Regency which is right beside this plot is selling for 1700psf

amk
06-03-13, 19:24
Kane 750psf
Lovelle 790psf
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter & Rosy 850psf
Jeaprp 866psf
Phantom 868 or 900psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf
CondoWe 930 to 980psf
Mcm 988psf
AMK 900

Pro888
06-03-13, 19:29
But its right opp Tiong Bahru MRT....

Twin Regency which is right beside this plot is selling for 1700psf

Twin Reg, Reg Suites, The Reg @ TB are all FH. Meraprime relatively a newer LH while Central Green already 18 years old. Only last few 2 bedders were transacted at $1700psf. Generally on the avg around $1500psf while LH around $1400+ psf. Don't forget this plot is also 99 years.

Pro888
06-03-13, 19:42
our forumer guesses:

bargain hunter 845
Pro888 888.88
jeaprp 900 +/- 50
Ilikeu 900 to 950
kane 970
leesg123 988

actual sales price was 882.8psf ppr with Pro888 being the closest guess.

bro kane, u were so aggressive for this one saying it can be sold at 970. this commonwealth plot was sold after the measures also. why are u so conservative on the kim tian plot. to me, the kim tian plot is superior to the commonwealth plot, no?

Current guesses for kim tian plot:

Kane 750psf (feel free to amend your bid, haven't closed yet :D )
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter 850psf
CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf

Bro Pro888, you are guessing 6% less than the commonwealth plot, any reasons? is it becoz u think this plot is inferior or ppty sentiment has cooled further since or.....? :confused:

There are some requirements/ limitations coupled with plot ratio of only 4, the developers have to take into design consideration. Labour cost. CM7. Land cost @ Queenstown & Redhill/prince charles (price has already peaked). No doubts this is a better site compared to Queenstown with TB plaza & TB market and excellent CBD skyline. :D

Khng8
06-03-13, 20:34
My guess .... $888 psf ppr

bargain hunter
06-03-13, 21:15
Kane 750psf
Lovelle 790psf
Pro888 828psf
Bargain Hunter & Rosy 850psf
Jeaprp 866psf
Phantom 868 or 900psf
Khng8 888psf
Amk & CCR 900psf
DKSG >920psf
CondoWe 930 to 980psf
Mcm 988psf

thanks for explanation. very logical. :)


There are some requirements/ limitations coupled with plot ratio of only 4, the developers have to take into design consideration. Labour cost. CM7. Land cost @ Queenstown & Redhill/prince charles (price has already peaked). No doubts this is a better site compared to Queenstown with TB plaza & TB market and excellent CBD skyline. :D

kane
06-03-13, 21:53
a very wide range of bids from this forum. lol.

bargain hunter
06-03-13, 22:11
not very wide lah. u deliberately sabo mah. else at least its within 200psf. hahahahahaha


a very wide range of bids from this forum. lol.

kane
06-03-13, 23:09
not very wide lah. u deliberately sabo mah. else at least its within 200psf. hahahahahaha

don't say sabo leh, their construction cost going up, market expectation with cooling measures is toning down. bid high high not enough buffer to give ABSD subsidy discount mah. I help them to be more prudent only.

you bid low can still price up. you bid high, suck thumb, whatever it is also cannot price down.

bargain hunter
06-03-13, 23:43
ok, so some of us are already expecting land prices to drop. let's see if developers think the same way.


don't say sabo leh, their construction cost going up, market expectation with cooling measures is toning down. bid high high not enough buffer to give ABSD subsidy discount mah. I help them to be more prudent only.

you bid low can still price up. you bid high, suck thumb, whatever it is also cannot price down.

kane
07-03-13, 00:16
ok, so some of us are already expecting land prices to drop. let's see if developers think the same way.

The final sale price may not drop. But their bid could come off to cater for the risk premium and the market uncertainties.

Lemonlaw
07-03-13, 22:18
The final sale price may not drop. But their bid could come off to cater for the risk premium and the market uncertainties.

Developer may test the market by offering few lousy units at good price to test if there's any takers.

kane
07-03-13, 23:04
Developer may test the market by offering few lousy units at good price to test if there's any takers.

someone is doing the testing for them in further out places like potong pasir today...