View Full Version : First-time buyers prop up non-central prices
PUBLISHED APRIL 02, 2013
First-time buyers prop up non-central prices
Private home prices inched up only slightly in Q1 in the face of cooling measures
BYKALPANA RASHIWALA
URA's overall private home price index inched up 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter in Q1, a slower rise than Q4's 1.8 per cent increase - PHOTO: SPH
Slower price growth
[SINGAPORE] Amid the latest official flash estimate showing a slower quarter-on-quarter increase in private home prices in Q1 2013 than in Q4 last year, some property consultants believe that the latest cooling package in January will have a more lingering impact than the six preceding rounds.
However, prices in the widely watched Outside Central Region (OCR), home to suburban condos, are unlikely to fall this year given the strength of the first-time home-buyer pool, say some analysts.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) flash estimates showed its price index for non-landed private homes in OCR still managed to rise 1.7 per cent quarter on quarter in the first quarter, though this was a much slower pace of increase compared with the 3.8 per cent jump seen in Q4. The increase for Core Central Region (which includes Singapore's choicest residential locations) too slowed to 0.4 per cent in Q1, from a 0.7 per cent rise in Q4. In Rest of Central Region (which refers to city-fringe locations), the index was flat in the first quarter after climbing 0.9 per cent in Q4.
URA's overall private home price index inched up 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter in Q1, a slower rise than Q4's 1.8 per cent increase.
"The fact that OCR prices have yet to fall despite seven rounds of cooling measures doesn't mean the measures are not working. They're definitely working, but the size of the first-time home buyer market is very large and that is the one segment that has not been affected by the cooling measures," says Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLL) head of investments and residential Karamjit Singh.
CBRE's executive director, residential, Joseph Tan attributes the relatively strong increase in OCR prices in the first quarter chiefly to the launch of a significant number of projects with good locations near MRT stations.
Said JLL's Mr Singh: "Going by the current measures, I do not think we will see prices decline this year for OCR. For CCR and RCR, prices could start heading towards negative territory with marginal price declines."
Most property consultants expect the URA's OCR price index to outperform the market in 2013 as in the past two years. The increase for the whole of this year is predicted at 3-6 per cent by SLP International, 5-10 per cent by Savills and up to 5 per cent by PropNex.
Savills predicts flat prices for CCR and RCR and reckons the URA's overall private home price index could end the year 3-5 per cent higher. SLP projects an up to 4 per cent full-year rise in the benchmark index and PropNex, an increase of 1-3 per cent.
Many industry players believe that unlike earlier rounds of measures, the bite from the January package will last longer.
Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said: "Investors are severely affected by the lower loan-to-value limits and higher cash down payment, especially for older investors with multiple properties.
"These are the people who chose to buy in the past, but now that they have to foot a bigger cash component, they're more careful. On top of that, given the high number of home completions over the next two years, the rental market is poised to weaken."
SLP International executive director Nicholas Mak, too, agreed that the effects of the January cooling package, combined with shorter loan tenure introduced last October, will have a longer-lasting impact on curtailing investment demand than the earlier rounds of measures.
DTZ's SE Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah highlights that mortgage rates have also started to creep up, which could also "temper some of the exuberant investment demand".
Developers are expected to have sold more than 2,000 private homes in March, after the pullback in February in the aftermath of January's cooling package and due to the Chinese New Year festive period. Some analysts reckon the final figure for Q1 is likely to have crossed 5,000 units - close to last year's average quarterly figure of 5,549. However, resales of completed private homes have slowed sharply amid a buyer-seller price gap, say agents.
On developers' sales this year, Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong suggests that in addition to first-time home buying, what could fuel transactions could be the Population White Paper, which "inadvertently sent a message to those who can afford to buy a private home, to bring forward their buying - or risk being crowded out".
"But when demand from this group - comprising mostly those purchasing for their children - peters out, where's the next demand driver going to come from?" he asked.
Meanwhile, talk in the market is that Kingsford Development, controlled by Chinese citizens, has moved fewer than 100 units in Kingsford.Hillview Peak, a 512-unit condo. It is said to have begun sales on Good Friday at an average price of about $1,400 per square foot (psf) but in the face of slow sales, gave additional discounts amounting to about $50 psf.
Knight Frank observed that year on year, the URA's overall private home price index in Q1 was up 3.4 per cent. This is similar to the 3.5 per cent year-on-year gain in Q1 last year. And the 7.2 per cent year-on-year hike reflected in the Q1 2013 OCR non-landed private home price index is the largest since the 7.7 per cent rise in Q4 2011.
The summary of the above article is - a crack crash is inevitable and developers are coaxing upgraders to buy up before it belly up.
The summary of the above article is - a crack crash is inevitable and developers are coaxing upgraders to buy up before it belly up.
:D:D:D...you the man...:D:D:D
phantom_opera
02-04-13, 10:37
The summary of the above article is - a crack crash is inevitable and developers are coaxing upgraders to buy up before it belly up.
one thing u must learn is the market will not care about what u or I think
one thing u must learn is the market will not care about what u or I think
people with cash think very differently from those who doesnt.
one thing u must learn is the market will not care about what u or I think
exactly...:cool:
"The fact that OCR prices have yet to fall despite seven rounds of cooling measures doesn't mean the measures are not working. They're definitely working, but the size of the first-time home buyer market is very large and that is the one segment that has not been affected by the cooling measures," says Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLL) head of investments and residential Karamjit Singh.
... This was what I said to Mr Chestnut just a couple of months back, but he would have none of it. Time to unleash the first time buyers...
Now, we are in a state of stalemate. Most cannot sell, cannot buy. Price is now fully in the hands of developers and Govt. Will have to depend on first-time buyers to prop at this level till the other groups regain ammunition.
"The fact that OCR prices have yet to fall despite seven rounds of cooling measures doesn't mean the measures are not working. They're definitely working, but the size of the first-time home buyer market is very large and that is the one segment that has not been affected by the cooling measures," says Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLL) head of investments and residential Karamjit Singh.
... This was what I said to Mr Chestnut just a couple of months back, but he would have none of it. Time to unleash the first time buyers...
Now, we are in a state of stalemate. Most cannot sell, cannot buy. Price is now fully in the hands of developers and Govt. Will have to depend on first-time buyers to prop at this level till the other groups regain ammunition.
and the scary part is in spite of all the CMs, there are still first time buyers who are propping up the market!!!!!!
pent up demand. there's still a lot of first time buyers who are waiting also and when they decide that the market isn't going to correct, they'll enter and buy buy buy their first property.
Im also wondering how come so many first time buyers? it like endless stream leh...
I can only afford to buy hdb 3rm for the first time, now first timers rush to buy condo?
Or was it the magic touch of the developers? :hell-hath-no-fury:
Im also wondering how come so many first time buyers? it like endless stream leh...
I can only afford to buy hdb 3rm for the first time, now first timers rush to buy condo?
Or was it the magic touch of the developers? :hell-hath-no-fury:
Some don't qualify for HDB. Others can't wait or do not want outskirts BTO.
Some are the children of anxious parents. Others have cashed out and now qualify as first timers. Many cashed out and wait at the sides for years already, I know quite a few like that.
This is a huge, huge group.
Aspirational crowd. Anyway, parents are helping out these days.
Some don't qualify for HDB. Others can't wait or do not want outskirts BTO.
Some are the children of anxious parents. Others have cashed out and now qualify as first timers. Many cashed out and wait at the sides for years already, I know quite a few like that.
This is a huge, huge group.
Yes, I know of people like these too and are waiting for prices to drop but their rental is going up up up.
If they move in with parents, still not too bad but if they rent, I think their hearts are bleeding everyday.
Yes, I know of people like these too and are waiting for prices to drop but their rental is going up up up.
If they move in with parents, still not too bad but if they rent, I think their hearts are bleeding everyday.
I did not mean those group in the forum. I really know quite a few, now living with parents or renting. Price has doubled from the time they sold...
Every year you get 20+k cpuples settling down. And out of this 20+k, some are looking for their first home. This demand needs to be matched with the supply coming on. And let's face it, not everyone can afford a CCR. So they'll have to make do with an OCR if BTO isn't available to them, maybe if their income has exceeded the ceiling.
pent up demand. there's still a lot of first time buyers who are waiting also and when they decide that the market isn't going to correct, they'll enter and buy buy buy their first property.
and we thank people like YOWETAN for helping to prop up property prices in advance
Buyers of BUC under ABSD all get stuck, price may still go up if land supply cut while cash supply continues.
"The fact that OCR prices have yet to fall despite seven rounds of cooling measures doesn't mean the measures are not working. They're definitely working, but the size of the first-time home buyer market is very large and that is the one segment that has not been affected by the cooling measures," says Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLL) head of investments and residential Karamjit Singh.
... This was what I said to Mr Chestnut just a couple of months back, but he would have none of it. Time to unleash the first time buyers...
Now, we are in a state of stalemate. Most cannot sell, cannot buy. Price is now fully in the hands of developers and Govt. Will have to depend on first-time buyers to prop at this level till the other groups regain ammunition.
Brudder, did I say the above??? I still holding on to all my properties leh.... But I am now in to other instruments.... Properties are not the only instruments.... I did mention that many will use proxy leh.... Is there another Chestnut around?? Hahahhaha...
Brudder, hold on to your property.... But dont expect the similar capital gains experienced from 2008 to now.... Someone on top is watching and will ensure a slow and steady pace.... I hope you get my drift. :cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
Brudder, did I say the above??? I still holding on to all my properties leh.... But I am now in to other instruments.... Properties are not the only instruments.... I did mention that many will use proxy leh.... Is there another Chestnut around?? Hahahhaha...
Brudder, hold on to your property.... But dont expect the similar capital gains experienced from 2008 to now.... Someone on top is watching and will ensure a slow and steady pace.... I hope you get my drift. :cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
It was about first time buyers being unleashed at a suitable time to prop the market. Anyway can't remember the context perfectly too, might have been a different story the last time posted.
Good to know you are still around.
Going forward, "first timers" will be critical to sustain the demand and supply. But it's not likely to be a large number of transactions.
This is a 100% correct statement- no matter property market crash or market is at its peak, there will always be buyer.
I hope someone can prove me wrong but unfortunately I am perfectly correct. :cheers5:
That is why I am saying MND climbing up the wrong tree!
They keep saying properties prices over-heated, and yet they still let first-time home buyers have 80% LTV, no ABSD etc! They are the ones causing all these over-heating, not the foreigners nor the 2nd time home buyers! They always say they have targeted policies, so no targeted policies to cool property prices due to first-time buyers buying? :doh:
PUBLISHED APRIL 02, 2013
First-time buyers prop up non-central prices
Private home prices inched up only slightly in Q1 in the face of cooling measures
BYKALPANA RASHIWALA
URA's overall private home price index inched up 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter in Q1, a slower rise than Q4's 1.8 per cent increase - PHOTO: SPH
Slower price growth
[SINGAPORE] Amid the latest official flash estimate showing a slower quarter-on-quarter increase in private home prices in Q1 2013 than in Q4 last year, some property consultants believe that the latest cooling package in January will have a more lingering impact than the six preceding rounds.
However, prices in the widely watched Outside Central Region (OCR), home to suburban condos, are unlikely to fall this year given the strength of the first-time home-buyer pool, say some analysts.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) flash estimates showed its price index for non-landed private homes in OCR still managed to rise 1.7 per cent quarter on quarter in the first quarter, though this was a much slower pace of increase compared with the 3.8 per cent jump seen in Q4. The increase for Core Central Region (which includes Singapore's choicest residential locations) too slowed to 0.4 per cent in Q1, from a 0.7 per cent rise in Q4. In Rest of Central Region (which refers to city-fringe locations), the index was flat in the first quarter after climbing 0.9 per cent in Q4.
URA's overall private home price index inched up 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter in Q1, a slower rise than Q4's 1.8 per cent increase.
"The fact that OCR prices have yet to fall despite seven rounds of cooling measures doesn't mean the measures are not working. They're definitely working, but the size of the first-time home buyer market is very large and that is the one segment that has not been affected by the cooling measures," says Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLL) head of investments and residential Karamjit Singh.
CBRE's executive director, residential, Joseph Tan attributes the relatively strong increase in OCR prices in the first quarter chiefly to the launch of a significant number of projects with good locations near MRT stations.
Said JLL's Mr Singh: "Going by the current measures, I do not think we will see prices decline this year for OCR. For CCR and RCR, prices could start heading towards negative territory with marginal price declines."
Most property consultants expect the URA's OCR price index to outperform the market in 2013 as in the past two years. The increase for the whole of this year is predicted at 3-6 per cent by SLP International, 5-10 per cent by Savills and up to 5 per cent by PropNex.
Savills predicts flat prices for CCR and RCR and reckons the URA's overall private home price index could end the year 3-5 per cent higher. SLP projects an up to 4 per cent full-year rise in the benchmark index and PropNex, an increase of 1-3 per cent.
Many industry players believe that unlike earlier rounds of measures, the bite from the January package will last longer.
Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said: "Investors are severely affected by the lower loan-to-value limits and higher cash down payment, especially for older investors with multiple properties.
"These are the people who chose to buy in the past, but now that they have to foot a bigger cash component, they're more careful. On top of that, given the high number of home completions over the next two years, the rental market is poised to weaken."
SLP International executive director Nicholas Mak, too, agreed that the effects of the January cooling package, combined with shorter loan tenure introduced last October, will have a longer-lasting impact on curtailing investment demand than the earlier rounds of measures.
DTZ's SE Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah highlights that mortgage rates have also started to creep up, which could also "temper some of the exuberant investment demand".
Developers are expected to have sold more than 2,000 private homes in March, after the pullback in February in the aftermath of January's cooling package and due to the Chinese New Year festive period. Some analysts reckon the final figure for Q1 is likely to have crossed 5,000 units - close to last year's average quarterly figure of 5,549. However, resales of completed private homes have slowed sharply amid a buyer-seller price gap, say agents.
On developers' sales this year, Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong suggests that in addition to first-time home buying, what could fuel transactions could be the Population White Paper, which "inadvertently sent a message to those who can afford to buy a private home, to bring forward their buying - or risk being crowded out".
"But when demand from this group - comprising mostly those purchasing for their children - peters out, where's the next demand driver going to come from?" he asked.
Meanwhile, talk in the market is that Kingsford Development, controlled by Chinese citizens, has moved fewer than 100 units in Kingsford.Hillview Peak, a 512-unit condo. It is said to have begun sales on Good Friday at an average price of about $1,400 per square foot (psf) but in the face of slow sales, gave additional discounts amounting to about $50 psf.
Knight Frank observed that year on year, the URA's overall private home price index in Q1 was up 3.4 per cent. This is similar to the 3.5 per cent year-on-year gain in Q1 last year. And the 7.2 per cent year-on-year hike reflected in the Q1 2013 OCR non-landed private home price index is the largest since the 7.7 per cent rise in Q4 2011.
Well well, don't be stupid to hold cash right? Cash value is going down the drain! :scared-1:
Brudder, did I say the above??? I still holding on to all my properties leh.... But I am now in to other instruments.... Properties are not the only instruments.... I did mention that many will use proxy leh.... Is there another Chestnut around?? Hahahhaha...
Brudder, hold on to your property.... But dont expect the similar capital gains experienced from 2008 to now.... Someone on top is watching and will ensure a slow and steady pace.... I hope you get my drift. :cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
That is why I am saying MND climbing up the wrong tree!
They keep saying properties prices over-heated, and yet they still let first-time home buyers have 80% LTV, no ABSD etc! They are the ones causing all these over-heating, not the foreigners nor the 2nd time home buyers! They always say they have targeted policies, so no targeted policies to cool property prices due to first-time buyers buying? :doh:
You need to know the facts, the govt is trying to promote family living...hence the 1st timer need to be given a chance to own their nest before they can plan for a baby. This is what Singapore wants and is their top priority now.
That's the current government direction, no two ways about it. Be it you like it or not is not going to change the facts till you leave this country or the govt change its policy....isn't?
thomastansb
03-04-13, 00:10
You can't stop someone from buying their first home. I think it is the right move for ABSD in fact. The wrong move is 15% only. Should have been 20% for CM6 and 30% for CM7.
That is why I am saying MND climbing up the wrong tree!
They keep saying properties prices over-heated, and yet they still let first-time home buyers have 80% LTV, no ABSD etc! They are the ones causing all these over-heating, not the foreigners nor the 2nd time home buyers! They always say they have targeted policies, so no targeted policies to cool property prices due to first-time buyers buying? :doh:
The summary of the above article is - a crack crash is inevitable and developers are coaxing upgraders to buy up before it belly up.
Some people are cracking up because as they accumulate $$$$$ to buy, they have this crack that keep leaking the value of their cash......poor thing.....just pray the crack does not worsen....
Originally Posted by yowetan
The summary of the above article is - a crack crash is inevitable and developers are coaxing upgraders to buy up before it belly up.
Some people are cracking up because as they accumulate $$$$$ to buy, they have this crack that keep leaking the value of their cash......poor thing.....just pray the crack does not worsen....
I wonder why yowetan use the word coaxing ?
But I guess I cannot comment on people who spend all their time here bashing the keyboard. If you have been to UV, DNest (700+), Trilinq, Hillion, you will know that people ARE buying.
And as we debate here on the ABSD, from the ground, people are starting to get used to it and are paying the ABSD.
I will make a prediction here that in 1-2 months' time, there will be a newspaper article that says xxx number of people are paying the ABSD and the number is getting larger.
So demand is not only coming from first time buyer, there are also the second time buyers and the rich foreigners who are starting to pay their 15% already !
Next to watch is of course commercial properties - dont say Office Boy never point you to the money.
DKSG
Some people are cracking up because as they accumulate $$$$$ to buy, they have this crack that keep leaking the value of their cash......poor thing.....just pray the crack does not worsen....
Leaking is an understatement ...
With cash losing value at 5% a year (OMG!!!!) your $100K from 2010 is now left about $85K only ! Who stole the $15K !
The double whammy is .. property prices are still climbing 1% per month or quarter ...
Imagine you money is stolen, and the things you want to buy becomes more expensive ... Scary ...
DKSG
Leaking is an understatement ...
With cash losing value at 5% a year (OMG!!!!) your $100K from 2010 is now left about $85K only ! Who stole the $15K !
The double whammy is .. property prices are still climbing 1% per month or quarter ...
Imagine you money is stolen, and the things you want to buy becomes more expensive ... Scary ...
DKSG
Inflation is the correct term. :cheers5:
A market cannot fully peak when they are "gurus" predicting market crash.
Inflation is the correct term. :cheers5:
A decision to do nothing is an investment decision in itself with a downside of 4-5% per year in the past few years.
Leaking is an understatement ...
With cash losing value at 5% a year (OMG!!!!) your $100K from 2010 is now left about $85K only ! Who stole the $15K !
The double whammy is .. property prices are still climbing 1% per month or quarter ...
Imagine you money is stolen, and the things you want to buy becomes more expensive ... Scary ...
DKSG
Property price going up 1% per month or quarter is part of the calculation of cash losing value 5% per year, cannot double count right?
Property price going up 1% per month or quarter is part of the calculation of cash losing value 5% per year, cannot double count right?
these are exclusive events, and there is no double counting.
these are exclusive events, and there is no double counting.
Ya ... Dont bully Office Boy leh ...
I use my office skills on this one. If budget drop 10% and price of stationeries went up 10%, then what is the office going to get ? 20% lesser (more or less la!) stationeries leh!
DKSG
Ya ... Dont bully Office Boy leh ...
I use my office skills on this one. If budget drop 10% and price of stationeries went up 10%, then what is the office going to get ? 20% lesser (more or less la!) stationeries leh!
DKSG
or your boss deducts 20% of your salary to buy more supplies for the office :D :D :D
or your boss deducts 20% of your salary to buy more supplies for the office :D :D :D
Dont like that say leh ...
Office Boy earns very small peanuts working here already, still wanna cut 20%!
But this year increment also not very good, my boss can only tell me - "well at least it is more than your inflation rate right ?"
I ... :doh: :doh: :doh:
DKSG
Dont like that say leh ...
Office Boy earns very small peanuts working here already, still wanna cut 20%!
But this year increment also not very good, my boss can only tell me - "well at least it is more than your inflation rate right ?"
I ... :doh: :doh: :doh:
DKSG
ahahahahahaha, my sympathies. but your rental income should be more than enough
ahahahahahaha, my sympathies. but your rental income should be more than enough
Ok la .. earn a bit of pocket money to survive a bit better lo ...
DKSG
Ok la .. earn a bit of pocket money to survive a bit better lo ...
DKSG
i hope your boss not reading this, or else "cut your pay 30% to buy more staplers for the company"!!! :D :D :D
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