View Full Version : What a property investor shouldn't do in today's market condition.
Secretariat
21-07-13, 10:55
This thread is dedicated to opinions of what a property investor shouldn't do in today's market condition. That is, under a situation where CMs 1-7 remain imposed, plus the TDSR add-on.
(Every poster is entitled to his opinion, and everyone is freed to debate the merit of his opinion.)
I would start with an obvious, but I am certain that there are others who disagree with it.
Scenario:
A person has a live-in dwelling (HDB, condo, landed etc, it doesn't matter which type) with an outstanding mortgage. He/she also has substantial savings sitting in the bank earning miserable interests. The savings is suffcient for the initial sum required to invest in a new launch.
Don't:
Deploy the savings to buy the new launch just because it is earning close to nothing.
When you choose to deploy to invest in a new launch, the ABSD of 7% plus BSD of 3% would effectively apply a haircut to the savings.
In other words, in deploying, the savings get a substantial haircut before the investment property could start to generate a return.
Cheers!
princess_morbucks
21-07-13, 11:00
I agree with you, honorable Secretariat!
I will, in this case, make a lump sum payment to my mortgage loan.
This thread is dedicated to opinions of what a property investor shouldn't do in today's market condition. That is, under a situation where CMs 1-7 remain imposed, plus the TDSR add-on.
(Every poster is entitled to his opinion, and everyone is freed to debate the merit of his opinion.)
I would start with an obvious, but I am certain that there are others who disagree with it.
Scenario:
A person has a live-in dwelling (HDB, condo, landed etc, it doesn't matter which type) with an outstanding mortgage. He/she also has substantial savings sitting in the bank earning miserable interests. The savings is suffcient for the initial sum required to invest in a new launch.
Don't:
Deploy the savings to buy the new launch just because it is earning close to nothing.
When you choose to deploy to invest in a new launch, the ABSD of 7% plus BSD of 3% would effectively apply a haircut to the savings.
In other words, in deploying, the savings get a substantial haircut before the investment property could start to generate a return.
Cheers!
Bro, it's the SSD that's a problem....
I see the problem as this :
With the money, where to invest???? Stocks, us or Singapore or china, or Europe???? Bonds??? Unit trust???
:confused: :confused: :confused:
The problem is they don't know where to go because they may not understand or done enough homework.... Or even don't know where to begin...
I agree with you, honorable Secretariat!
I will, in this case, make a lump sum payment to my mortgage loan.
Why u agree and make lump sum payment??? :confused: :confused: I cannot find the connection.... Real question. No hidden agenda...
The idea is to allow inflation to erode savers' savings while e banks n other big financial institutions r protected from any potential bubble.
walkthetiger
21-07-13, 11:15
"....buy the new launch just because it is earning close to nothing. .."
When you choose to deploy to invest in a new launch, the ABSD of 7% plus BSD of 3% would effectively apply a haircut to the savings.
Agree. Only for people who is desperately looking for a shelter now, then too bad, they don’t have much choice now, their other option is to rent.
SG seems revert housing matters going back to basic, doing quite well in fact, restricting all average income earners to own one property only.
princess_morbucks
21-07-13, 11:20
Why u agree and make lump sum payment??? :confused: :confused: I cannot find the connection.... Real question. No hidden agenda...
I agree with secretariat not to buy a new launch.
So I'd rather use my savings to make lump sum payment to my present mortgage loan, rather than leave it in the bank.
Now? :confused:
I agree with secretariat not to buy a new launch.
So I'd rather use my savings to make lump sum payment to my present mortgage loan, rather than leave it in the bank.
Actually, I want to know, right now, what a "property investor" SHOULD do ;)
In conventional sense, with such low leverage and high tax, there is virtually no reason to invest in property at all. Especially the 50% LTV, what is the point of playing this pty game with such low gearing ?
I agree with secretariat not to buy a new launch.
So I'd rather use my savings to make lump sum payment to my present mortgage loan, rather than leave it in the bank.
Sis, first part understand....
2nd part is a big NO-NO....
1. When interest rate goes up, there are still instruments that can beat mortgage interest.
2. Many people I know paid up for their first unit and when opportunity came, were unable to buy their second properties because "not enough money for downpayment".
3. some I knew paid up for their first home and could only afford the downpayment for the second home... So when I advised them to buy another unit, which I did, they said "cannot leh, no more money".
But if u really don't know how to beat the mortgage interest rate, please just pay up your mortgage and ignore me.... Cheers
:cheers1: :cheers1: :cheers1:
Just woke up from my nap and felt like tcss...:D
princess_morbucks
21-07-13, 11:28
Now? :confused:
Yes.
Why leave it in bank?
Might as well reduce the existing loan.
Actually, I want to know, right now, what a "property investor" SHOULD do ;)
In conventional sense, with such low leverage and high tax, there is virtually no reason to invest in property at all. Especially the 50% LTV, what is the point of playing this pty game with such low gearing ?
The "property investor" should just remove the word "property" and call himself "investor" and be open to all forms of investment. Hahahaha
sometimes i wonder whether resale and subsale would be more desired in today's climate where you want the rental to provide for a better TDSR score.
princess_morbucks
21-07-13, 11:34
Sis, first part understand....
2nd part is a big NO-NO....
1. When interest rate goes up, there are still instruments that can beat mortgage interest.
2. Many people I know paid up for their first unit and when opportunity came, were unable to buy their second properties because "not enough money for downpayment".
3. some I knew paid up for their first home and could only afford the downpayment for the second home... So when I advised them to buy another unit, which I did, they said "cannot leh, no more money".
But if u really don't know how to beat the mortgage interest rate, please just pay up your mortgage and ignore me.... Cheers
:cheers1: :cheers1: :cheers1:
Just woke up from my nap and felt like tcss...:D
Thanks chestnut koko.
You are talking from a savy property investor point of view.
I am just saying that I will make a lumpsum payment, in response to secretariat's post.
That's what I will do.
Thanks chestnut koko.
You are talking from a savy property investor point of view.
I am just saying that I will make a lumpsum payment, in response to secretariat's post.
That's what I will do.
Sis, knowledge will move you towards Being a savvy investor. I have humble beginnings and learnt the along the way....
Cash is really important and must be kept as an investment asset.... Don't be afraid of inflation biting into your cash.... Remember, you have other assets (stocks, bonds, rental, etc...) generating income... Leave some cash to catch cheap sale...:D :D
Good house
21-07-13, 11:46
My view And option as follow...
1. Keep your ammo or.
2 . If for own stay...buy ...if possible get a bigger HDB, you will appreciate the space and it looks great after a good renovation or an EC.
3. Die die must invest....buy resale with tenant or ready to rent out At a good location
The above not apply to HNWI with ship load of ammo and holding power. You can buy all you want:D
Just my humble opinion
Thanks chestnut koko.
You are talking from a savy property investor point of view.
I am just saying that I will make a lumpsum payment, in response to secretariat's post.
That's what I will do.
Sis ... I guess u belong to those who value the feeling of achieving financial freedom or independence without any outstanding loans... After all our stomach is only big enough to contain that much food... To each his own :cheers6:
Bro secretariat, here comes my honest view :
Property market has lost its acceleration power.... The booster has been used quite a lot of times Liao until finished.....
The days of big gains are over..... Every investment instrument has its cycle.... Cheers :D
This thread is dedicated to opinions of what a property investor shouldn't do in today's market condition. That is, under a situation where CMs 1-7 remain imposed, plus the TDSR add-on.
(Every poster is entitled to his opinion, and everyone is freed to debate the merit of his opinion.)
I would start with an obvious, but I am certain that there are others who disagree with it.
Scenario:
A person has a live-in dwelling (HDB, condo, landed etc, it doesn't matter which type) with an outstanding mortgage. He/she also has substantial savings sitting in the bank earning miserable interests. The savings is suffcient for the initial sum required to invest in a new launch.
Don't:
Deploy the savings to buy the new launch just because it is earning close to nothing.
When you choose to deploy to invest in a new launch, the ABSD of 7% plus BSD of 3% would effectively apply a haircut to the savings.
In other words, in deploying, the savings get a substantial haircut before the investment property could start to generate a return.
Cheers!
Wow, that is correct. Why didn't I think of the ABSD of 10% haircut ( for my case should be around 10%+3%=13% or more!!) ! I just cashout last year on 2 properties after the 5th CM and was thinking of using it to deploy in the current cooling market condition to reinvest in a bigger unit again.
That would totally wiped out my gains !
THANKS A MILLION, GOOD BROTHER !!
How dumb can I get? HENG ARRRRRRRH for this forum !
Your handsome brother,
Lion King
Secretariat
21-07-13, 12:07
Bro secretariat, here comes my honest view :
Property market has lost its acceleration power.... The booster has been used quite a lot of times Liao until finished.....
The days of big gains are over..... Every investment instrument has its cycle.... Cheers :D
The famous chart used by Ringo is showing the lost of acceleration power indeed.
Any other scenario illustrating what a property investor shouldnt do today?
Cheers!
A property investors should not hope that the good old times will come back, and the good old formula of investing in big quantum CCR will work unless if yu have reason to believe that CMs will be remove soon.
instead of being greedy thinking about big capital gain with big units one should start looking at multiple small quantum units with good rental potential regardless if its freehold or leasehold, ocr rcr ccr,new launch or resale because with SSD you will still be tied down for 3 to 4 years and quantum is a big factor in today's cooling environment.
The famous chart used by Ringo is showing the lost of acceleration power indeed.
Any other scenario illustrating what a property investor shouldnt do today?
Cheers!
I dunno about the chart used by brother Ringo is of any good use frankly do not be anger hor. But, I have always viewed the ABSD as an additional costs of acquiring my new purchase. However, what you said in the previous post reminded me that this ABSD is actually eating away my realised gains !! Oh Thank You for your reminder again......
( To be continued)
I dunno about the chart used by brother Ringo is of any good use frankly do not be anger hor. But, I have always viewed the ABSD as an additional costs of acquiring my new purchase. However, what you said in the previous post reminded me that this ABSD is actually eating away my realised gains !! Oh Thank You for your reminder again......
( To be continued)
That is why, if I expanded my portfolio thinking that the market is now a good entry point, I am actually taking additional risk and eroding my investment position, am I correct or not to say that? Pretty sisters here need reply.......
(To be continued )
Frankly, I do not use chart. But I use my "feel"... you know, what sister princess said is correct. My realised cash should be used to hedge now against interest rate increase by repaying the loans instead of inflation. Not saying that interest will definitely shoot up, but just in case if you know what I mean.....:eek:
Still very handsome Uncle,
Leo Cheng
This discussion thread is definitely much more meaningful and interesting to read compared with some other no substance threads in this forum that are filled with petty issues and personal attacks.
Thanks to secretariat, our handsome illuminated bro and respectable chestnut mentor for the contributions :cheers6:
Good house
21-07-13, 12:21
That is why, if I expanded my portfolio thinking that the market is now a good entry point, I am actually taking additional risk and eroding my investment position, am I correct or not to say that? Pretty sisters here need reply.......
(To be continued )
You have a very good point Illuminated one:)
Secretariat
21-07-13, 12:32
Thanks chestnut koko.
You are talking from a savy property investor point of view.
I am just saying that I will make a lumpsum payment, in response to secretariat's post.
That's what I will do.
In my 2-cents opinion, Princess is correct to do so, Chestnut is also correct in what he is saying.
It is just a different way of deploying the savings. No one is getting into more debts.
Also, an approach could be depending on how you look at a mortgage payment. To me, even for the house I am staying in, I look at the mortgage payment as a rental payment anyway because one doesn't own a house until the housing loan is fully paid for. In other words, the financing bank owns the house until one makes the last mortgage payment and redeems the title.
So, I have no problem whatsoever buying or renting. When the direction of property prices is going up, buy so that when you sell, you get the mortgage payments (= rental payments, in my case) back.
Cheers!
You have a very good point Illuminated one:)
Wahhhh..Thanks leh.......I very handsome hor....
Since we are at it. Brothers-in-the-knows know that I am now working on my 2014 Celestial Prediction. Many layman, when they read my "prediction", they all laugh at me, not knowing how I form such prediction. Actually, it is a very simple research method I used. I look at countries GDPs, banker's behaviors, government policies, forex movement, stock market, fund flows and then finally I will draw upon a conclusion of the general direction of that particular year. However, I have to encode the data and talk in a siao lang manner. Not saying that I am 100% accurate, but now I am looking at analysts behaviors and right now, no final conclusion but I can share with you guys what I think at this stage:
Interest rates may move up ( not 100% confident that it will, but Moody's was so confident in her recent reports on Singapore banks that I suspect the chances of increase is high ). From my previous experience before the existence of Internet, I know Singapore property market at that time can tolerate up to 8% of the increase.
However, that was before all the QE printing that only the very rich can invest in property. Now the situation is a bit different and warrant further study. So, market at current should be able to tolerate well up to 4%...that is just my thinking at this stage. No conclusion yet so stay tuned !
Good Luck!
:)
神龙股侠
NIL SINE LABORE !
Brudder, if the individual is able to find investment instrument whereby he can get hire return rates compared with bank mortgage interest rate, he should utilize it.
If the individual is not savvy enough, I strongly suggest paying up the housing loan.
If the individual is already happy with his investment, he does not need to hold cash Liao...
If the individual wants to take advantage of future possible cheap sale, the individual needs to hold cash....
So, at the end, it is about what u want now and in the future that will determine the deployment of your cash....
:D :cheers1:
In my 2-cents opinion, Princess is correct to do so, Chestnut is also correct in what he is saying.
It is just a different way of deploying the savings. No one is getting into more debts.
Also, an approach could be depending on how you look at a mortgage payment. To me, even for the house I am staying in, I look at the mortgage payment as a rental payment anyway because one doesn't own a house until the housing loan is fully paid for. In other words, the financing bank owns the house until one makes the last mortgage payment and redeems the title.
So, I have no problem whatsoever buying or renting. When the direction of property prices is going up, buy so that when you sell, you get the mortgage payments (= rental payments, in my case) back.
Cheers!
Paying of the loan.... U cannot get tax deduction liao.
princess_morbucks
21-07-13, 13:39
Paying of the loan.... U cannot get tax deduction liao.
Please explain.
Please explain.
Only apply to income tax due to rental.
princess_morbucks
21-07-13, 13:59
Paying of the loan.... U cannot get tax deduction liao.
Are you referring to this?
http://www.iras.gov.sg/irashome/page04.aspx?id=160
I did not know there are so many claimable expenses!
Wahhhh..Thanks leh.......I very handsome hor....
Since we are at it. Brothers-in-the-knows know that I am now working on my 2014 Celestial Prediction. Many layman, when they read my ......
However, that was before all the QE printing that only the very rich can invest in property. Now the situation is a bit different and warrant further study. So, market at current should be able to tolerate well up to 4%...that is just my thinking at this stage. No conclusion yet so stay tuned !
Good Luck!
:)
神龙股侠
NIL SINE LABORE !
Further, allow me to remind all brothers and sisters that there are many new projects completing by 2015 to 2018. Tenants typically go for NEW projects to rent, that is from my experience. I kena before that is how I know.
My reminder to consider this point carefully before you buy for investment.
Good Luck.
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 14:13
Brudder, if the individual is able to find investment instrument whereby he can get hire return rates compared with bank mortgage interest rate, he should utilize it.
If the individual is not savvy enough, I strongly suggest paying up the housing loan.
If the individual is already happy with his investment, he does not need to hold cash Liao...
If the individual wants to take advantage of future possible cheap sale, the individual needs to hold cash....
So, at the end, it is about what u want now and in the future that will determine the deployment of your cash....
:D :cheers1:
It is e opportunity cost of money. And time value of money.
I still feel borrowing from e bank at 1%-1.5% for investment into property that yields >3% or higher yield shares still make sense.
But for the portion that is considered our equity, cash on hand, I feel setting a 8%-10% IRR is important to take e downside risk. Hence even though the cash may earn no interest now, it can be used to snap up properties when interest rates move up.
That is e time probably when sub 3% yield will be fully used of offset the 3-4% loan interest and fall into negative yield territory.
So the view whether to repay the loan now is that, over the next 2-3 years period, do you think property prices will drop more than 10%. Even keeping as cash, your opportunity cost may still make sense since anything you buy today for 4%-5% yield may also have equity depreciation as evidenced by the REIT of yield stock prices dropping by 5%-10% where the risk view of a economic slowdown is high and removal of the QE
Buying Iskandar does not make sense for me as the IRR is very low and if e argument on e yield play, lagi worse. Yields are less than 2% against real interest cost of 4% at least should you borrowing MYR. Negative gains,.
At least buying Singapore properties now, the yield is positive...
CaSH or equity is KING. Hold on dear for rich pickings when the market turns...
MY Personal opinion.. It might be wrong anyway.
I dunno about the chart used by brother Ringo is of any good use frankly do not be anger hor. But, I have always viewed the ABSD as an additional costs of acquiring my new purchase. However, what you said in the previous post reminded me that this ABSD is actually eating away my realised gains !! Oh Thank You for your reminder again......
( To be continued)
ABSD is not really an issue if you are still able to stretch mortgage over 20 to 30 years. Its abit like COE, if you can stretch it over 10 years, no one really cares.
It is the combination of ABSD + LTV + loan tenure up to 65 years that is making it extremely unattractive for buyers in their 50s or 60s to buy anymore investment properties.
For someone to buy a 3rd property that cost say 2.5m, the cash outlay will be
a) $250,000 (ABSD)
b) $69,600 (stamp duty)
c) $1,500,000 (down payment)
Total : $1,819,600 (cash & cpf)
When % of mortgage gets smaller, the benefit of leveraging on low interest also diminish.
So the question to ask is if it is worth the while to pay $250,000 ABSD t gov, withdraw $1.5m of cash and cpf for down payment, and get them all locked down for 3 to 4 year (due to SSD).
It is e opportunity cost of money. And time value of money.
......
CaSH or equity is KING. Hold on dear for rich pickings when the market turns...
MY Personal opinion.. It might be wrong anyway.
Dear good brother, nobody can be wrong in a discussion. That is what this forum is for and why it exists for people like us.
All must share our opinions and views here so that we can all be guided by our experience to make the correct choice.
As a matter of fact, last 2 years I had unloaded 2 properties ( bought long before the CM1 and unloaded without knowing that more CMs will come LOL ) and now I am considering also whether to reinvest this fund when brother Ringo33 reminded me of the stamp duties will be a major consideration point for leverage & interest rates. This is because a "cost" has become a question of whether it will be an worthwhile investing action to take.
Anywhere, brother Cyberking made some very good points, thanks for your generous sharing ;)
Your handsome sister,
The Dark Angel
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 14:45
Brother 狮子王, you are too kind. Learnt a lot from your sharing too.
My view, cash or equity is e most expensive form of capital. Bank loans are cheap. Use leverage wherever possible.
If you are working, keep the IRAS NOA clean, check your credit bureau record regularly,. Know how much you can borrow. Line the bankers and lawyers up. Test the ideas with them. Somehow you be surprised how far you can gear up.
I for one, will cancel all cash lines. When you need them, it is 1hour approval anyway. Keep some credit cards will do and use GIRO.
The bankers can't wait to lend you $$$ if if CBS is good.
If you are self employed or holding irregular income, then normalize your NOA so the bank can better approve your loan.
Always keep positive IrR or positive yield, then e investments can grow
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 14:50
Opportunities are always open and the market always price it wrong in one form or another. You need to know what kind of opportunity to look for, test it in excel sheet, run sensitivity. Then when the mispricing happens, just whack. No need to think Liao
walkthetiger
21-07-13, 14:56
Wahhhh..Thanks leh.......I very handsome hor....
Since we are at it. Brothers-in-the-knows know that I am now working on my 2014 Celestial Prediction. Many layman, when they read my "prediction", they all laugh at me, not knowing how I form such prediction. Actually, it is a very simple research method I used. I look at countries GDPs, banker's behaviors, government policies, forex movement, stock market, fund flows and then finally I will draw upon a conclusion of the general direction of that particular year. However, I have to encode the data and talk in a siao lang manner. Not saying that I am 100% accurate, but now I am looking at analysts behaviors and right now, no final conclusion but I can share with you guys what I think at this stage:
Interest rates may move up ( not 100% confident that it will, but Moody's was so confident in her recent reports on Singapore banks that I suspect the chances of increase is high ). From my previous experience before the existence of Internet, I know Singapore property market at that time can tolerate up to 8% of the increase.
However, that was before all the QE printing that only the very rich can invest in property. Now the situation is a bit different and warrant further study. So, market at current should be able to tolerate well up to 4%...that is just my thinking at this stage. No conclusion yet so stay tuned !
Good Luck!
:)
神龙股侠
NIL SINE LABORE !
Learnt a lot from you. Thank.
Make sense to hold my ammunition, worth to wait a bit longer, no rush to get in now.
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 15:15
Opportunities are always open and the market always price it wrong in one form or another. You need to know what kind of opportunity to look for, test it in excel sheet, run sensitivity. Then when the mispricing happens, just whack. No need to think Liao
For the record. My last property move was in nov 2012 where I sold an condo and bought another condo simultaneously in 2 days. avoided ABSD. And the coolest part of it, execution day was such a breeze.
It took a 6 months effort to build an excel model of e scenarios. When the arbitrage opportunity opens precisely for me in oct. I just grab...as seen in e excel...
It is always good to leverage on OPM. What if correction is only 10% even with the gradual increase of interest rate?
It is e opportunity cost of money. And time value of money.
I still feel borrowing from e bank at 1%-1.5% for investment into property that yields >3% or higher yield shares still make sense.
But for the portion that is considered our equity, cash on hand, I feel setting a 8%-10% IRR is important to take e downside risk. Hence even though the cash may earn no interest now, it can be used to snap up properties when interest rates move up.
That is e time probably when sub 3% yield will be fully used of offset the 3-4% loan interest and fall into negative yield territory.
So the view whether to repay the loan now is that, over the next 2-3 years period, do you think property prices will drop more than 10%. Even keeping as cash, your opportunity cost may still make sense since anything you buy today for 4%-5% yield may also have equity depreciation as evidenced by the REIT of yield stock prices dropping by 5%-10% where the risk view of a economic slowdown is high and removal of the QE
Buying Iskandar does not make sense for me as the IRR is very low and if e argument on e yield play, lagi worse. Yields are less than 2% against real interest cost of 4% at least should you borrowing MYR. Negative gains,.
At least buying Singapore properties now, the yield is positive...
CaSH or equity is KING. Hold on dear for rich pickings when the market turns...
MY Personal opinion.. It might be wrong anyway.
puffer_fish
21-07-13, 15:43
GREAT DISCUSSION...very informative and engaging read:cheers1:
It all depends on the portfolio one has. How many properties? How many outstanding loans? How much cash on hand? When were these properties bought? (e.g. Before or after 2009? 1998? Or earlier.) Different scenarios require different strategies...
If one has only one property (with or w/o outstanding loan) and has enough cash for a second property just go for it. If only has one, how to consider property investor? However, what to buy (be it J Gateway or The Sail) one has to consider the various market factors according to one's circumstances. Remember, 知己知彼 百战百胜。There is really no right or wrong answers as in which one to buy. One man's meat is another man's poison; I don't wish to dwell into this here and start an argument.
If already has 2 or more properties, then from an investor's point of view, it still make sense to buy if the returns is positive after factor in all the costs and taxes and the property bought is capable of generating positive cash flow and has high capital appreciation over time. These are getting harder to come by with today's prices though.
I agree that holding cash now could be good so that it can be use for capital repayment when interest rates shoot up or to enter the market when there is a correction.
Sell only if need cash or to fund better investment prospects. If there's nothing better to invest, go for a holiday and enjoy life! :spliff:
Property investment is out for Singapore. If u don't wish to invest overseas property, invest in yourself: knowledge, health n relationships.
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 15:54
It is always good to leverage on OPM. What if correction is only 10% even with the gradual increase of interest rate?
Build the scenarios.
Take 10% correction factor, apply gradual slope of interest rate increase. Move e ruler for entry period.
Economic opportunity costs means weighing the different opportunity profile.
PM me if anyone needs a stArter excel model for new home buyers. I just constructed it for my first time property buyer friends anyway.
Build the scenarios.
Take 10% correction factor, apply gradual slope of interest rate increase. Move e ruler for entry period.
Economic opportunity costs means weighing the different opportunity profile.
PM me if anyone needs a stArter excel model for new home buyers. I just constructed it for my first time property buyer friends anyway.
Hi...could you share your excel model to me? Thanks.
Seems like quite a number with multiple properties who have cashed in recently r holding on to a major portion of the profit in cash (earning miserable interest from local banks) and waiting at the sideline because of ABSD.
At the same time we r seeing people borrowing like no tomorrow (if what yowetan is telling us is true!!!) from local banks, passing the risk to our deposit...
Just a silly thought: what would happen if enough of us forgo the lousy interest and withdraw our $!!!
Will the stingy local banks increase the saving interest rate then?
Seems like quite a number with multiple properties who have cashed in recently r holding on to a major portion of the profit in cash (earning miserable interest from local banks) and waiting at the sideline because of ABSD.
At the same time we r seeing people borrowing like no tomorrow (if what yowetan is telling us is true!!!) from local banks, passing the risk to our deposit...
Just a silly thought: what would happen if enough of us forgo the lousy interest and withdraw our $!!!
Will the stingy local banks increase the saving interest rate then?
Hi...the Chinese, Indians, and many internationals will continuing deposit their money in Singapore banks.
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 16:08
Hi...could you share your excel model to me? Thanks.
Email pls?
Sigh. Ok.
So local banks r lending you and your friends to take unnecessary risks...
Just hate it when part of it is my money too :(
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 16:18
Sigh. Ok.
So local banks r lending you to take unnecessary risk.
Just hate it when it is part of my $ too.
You should be glad to access a system that provides you an appreciating SGD, a reserve quantum by the garmen that is not known to the world. And near to 1% loan rates..
What unnecessary risk are we talking about when you can borrow at less than 2%, access e market with many options of investing of up to 5% yield. Whilst your neighbors earthlings are paying 5% in Malaysia, 8% in Indonesia for housing loans.. And for the majority of us, we are working individuals and have to rely on debt more than savings to buy our first house,
You should be blessed that the funds are lapping our shores instead of moving elsewhere.
Sigh. Ok.
So local banks r lending you and your friends to take unnecessary risks...
Just hate it when part of it is my money too :(
Hi...you could use my method too, if it is still not too late.
I am unsure when will MAS takes action, but act fast before whistleblowers blow.
Seems like quite a number with multiple properties who have cashed in recently r holding on to a major portion of the profit in cash (earning miserable interest from local banks) and waiting at the sideline because of ABSD.
At the same time we r seeing people borrowing like no tomorrow (if what yowetan is telling us is true!!!) from local banks, passing the risk to our deposit...
Just a silly thought: what would happen if enough of us forgo the lousy interest and withdraw our $!!!
Will the stingy local banks increase the saving interest rate then?
You are correct to say that as I am one of them although I am still vested. The key is like stock, you do not unload everything. Just unload slowly and watch what is happening in the market.
I can share with you quite a number of recent buyers in CCR are "first time " middle income Singaporean buyers , meaning they might have unloaded their one old big unit in OCR and one other investment property in OCR that is not affected by the CMs and are moving into CCR to live. I could tell they are Singaporeans from some CCR projects I owned . And I suspect their strategy is to hope to be able to sit on capital gains instead of rental yields.
In addition, some recently completed CCR projects are seeing quite a handful of empty units. This is a very different scenario from 2-3 years ago.Could be due to the Kow peh Kow bu locals, and foreigners are reduced ?
What is the implication that it will do to the market later is anybody's guess. Just keep in mind the limitations of this group of buyers.
You are correct to say that as I am one of them although I am still vested. The key is like stock, you do not unload everything. Just unload slowly and watch what is happening in the market.
I can share with you quite a number of recent buyers in CCR are "first time " middle income Singaporean buyers , meaning they might have unloaded their one old big unit in OCR and one other investment property in OCR that is not affected by the CMs and are moving into CCR to live. I could tell they are Singaporeans from some CCR projects I owned . And I suspect their strategy is to hope to be able to sit on capital gains instead of rental yields.
In addition, some recently completed CCR projects are seeing quite a handful of empty units. This is a very different scenario from 2-3 years ago.Could be due to the Kow peh Kow bu locals, and foreigners are reduced ?
What is the implication that it will do to the market later is anybody's guess. Just keep in mind the limitations of this group of buyers.
Mah Bow Tan is correct when he said that " The rich can take care of themselves". His logic is correct, we should have leave this market segment alone.
You are correct to say that as I am one of them although I am still vested. The key is like stock, you do not unload everything. Just unload slowly and watch what is happening in the market.
I can share with you quite a number of recent buyers in CCR are "first time " middle income Singaporean buyers , meaning they might have unloaded their one old big unit in OCR and one other investment property in OCR that is not affected by the CMs and are moving into CCR to live. I could tell they are Singaporeans from some CCR projects I owned . And I suspect their strategy is to hope to be able to sit on capital gains instead of rental yields.
In addition, some recently completed CCR projects are seeing quite a handful of empty units. This is a very different scenario from 2-3 years ago.Could be due to the Kow peh Kow bu locals, and foreigners are reduced ?
What is the implication that it will do to the market later is anybody's guess. Just keep in mind the limitations of this group of buyers.
This is why I am sitting on Mt Sinai.
This is why I am sitting on Mt Sinai.
I know where you are coming from. You meant because of the good schools around that Mt. Sinai will be a big selling point, tiobo? And hence you expected the capital gains to be better than rental?
I know where you are coming from. You meant because of the good schools around that Mt. Sinai will be a big selling point, tiobo? And hence you expected the capital gains to be better than rental?
You are partially right; Mt Sinai is strategically positioned. There is a reason why Pandan Valley was the first condominium to be build in Singapura.
This is why I am sitting on Mt Sinai.
There is some truth in your logic because over the past 6 years, the capital gains is around S$50,000 per year on the average for a private CCR property ;) How I know, dun ask . WOAHAHAHHAHHEHEHEHHEHEHEH
You are partially right; Mt Sinai is strategically positioned. There is a reason why Pandan Valley was the first condominium to be build in Singapura.
This I do not understand. Please enlighten why is it a strategic location, good brother?
There is some truth in your logic because over the past 6 years, the capital gains is around S$50,000 per year on the average for a private CCR property ;) How I know, dun ask . WOAHAHAHHAHHEHEHEHHEHEHEH
I wouldn't bother so much today for I have already own one in Mt Sinai. In the past, I would be very eager to know why though.
However, I have great beliefs in my judgement that Mt Sinai will be a very interesting place.
Bro secretariat, here comes my honest view :
Property market has lost its acceleration power.... The booster has been used quite a lot of times Liao until finished.....
The days of big gains are over..... Every investment instrument has its cycle.... Cheers :D
i DONT agree with you 100%:cool:
...1 AGREE with you 101%:D :spliff2: :spliff:
I wouldn't bother so much today for I have already own one in Mt Sinai. In the past, I would be very eager to know why though.
However, I have great beliefs in my judgement that Mt Sinai will be a very interesting place.
Share leh...you must know something we don't as I have always suspected.
I wouldn't bother so much today for I have already own one in Mt Sinai. In the past, I would be very eager to know why though.
However, I have great beliefs in my judgement that Mt Sinai will be a very interesting place.
:cheers1: to Mt sinai:cheers1:
i DONT agree with you 100%:cool:
...1 AGREE with you 101%:D :spliff2: :spliff:
Brudder, the days of say 2006 to 2011 doubling effect over 5 years is over.... Now capital gain is slow and steady because of CM....
The sad part is, not many can participate in 2nd property because of absd.... Even more cannot participate in 3 or more because of hire absd.
I must emphasize : I did not unload... I downsized and bought additional during CM... :D :D :D & hahahaha
I actually wonder why some unloaded????
So far, I made more money in one of my downsizing to waterview from Botannia.
I really don't expect a recession so soon after 2009 recession in Singapore. It is only 4 years or so since the last recession. Can some one share when they expect the next recession????
Hey lion head, why u sell har???? Damn cheem....
With all this CMs, I am expecting prices not to cheong like last time... I am not expecting prices to drop leh.....
Look at tampines gls, it is 35% more than qbay leh.....
So I tell all of you honestly, I damn blur by all this collecting ammo and waiting for crash :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
You guys/gals know something I don't know leh... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
But ok lar... Keep it to yourself hor...
For me, up/down... No difference... Please don't ask me why... Hahahahahaha
Cheers
You should be glad to access a system that provides you an appreciating SGD, a reserve quantum by the garmen that is not known to the world. And near to 1% loan rates..
What unnecessary risk are we talking about when you can borrow at less than 2%, access e market with many options of investing of up to 5% yield. Whilst your neighbors earthlings are paying 5% in Malaysia, 8% in Indonesia for housing loans.. And for the majority of us, we are working individuals and have to rely on debt more than savings to buy our first house,
You should be blessed that the funds are lapping our shores instead of moving elsewhere.
Ha ha ok ok my humble apologies!
A matter of perspectives lah.... Whether you owe bank money or the bank owes you money! (Ah... How a few short years can make one's head very big)
From my humble experience: Not an excel sheet but "cash" when that ONE opportunity presented itself...
My opinion on what a property investor shouldn't do -
If the investor has a second property (investment unit). Better don't sell.... Unless this investor is damn savvy with other financial instruments...
At lease with 2nd unit, u still getting rental yield.... Say nett 2.5%. Yield after leverage of 5 times(20% down payment)
ROI is 2.5%x5 = 12.5%
If 40% downpayment utilized,
ROI is 2.5 x 100/40 = 6.25%
If u can get rent to cover mortgage throughout your loan tenure, your housing loan amount is fully paid by your tenant.... You only paid deposit for your house. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.... Such simple logic....:D :D :D :D
Did I regret buying 1 unit at the peak of 1996???? No!!!!!! Why??????
I would never have learnt this valuable lesson.... Right now, my unit is higher than when I bot in 1996. Bot for 1.4 mil in 1996, today worth about 2 mil. All time low, 800k.... I always believe lessons must be learnt... And I really appreciate the lessons and price I paid in properties, stocks, forex, etc.... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA :D :D :D
But remember this, don't anyhow believe any forummers and do what he says... You decide your own destiny.... Only u know if you can tahan or not. Only you know your earning power. No 2 cases are the same. Cheers
:D :D :D :D
Today good mood... So mood for sharing.... Hahahahahha
Allthepies
21-07-13, 18:21
Property investment was good in the last few years, greater than 50% ROI per year... but moving forward, I view the ROI from property with leverage probably cannot beat stocks without leverage...
my expected minimum ROI from stocks is 10% per year long term...many people will doubt this is possible. However this is really achievable because my investable amount is small, less than 1mil. When your investment size is small, it is much easier to get high rates of return.
This summarise why small investor like me has decided to exit the property market.
Bro, if u are not affected by CMs, cash out 1 and buy another cheaper one for rental is correct...:) , 100% agreeable. But if not, then the ABSD could cost u 2-3yrs of rental... if u are confident of substantial capital increase within the next 2-3 yrs, this approach is still ok...
Otherwise, here's my take for next 3 yrs. this is how I see...:2cents:
1) while interest might be low, but due to the CMs, and slowing mkt with substantial increase in supply, u should be able to afford waiting for 1 yr. rather than pay ABSD and wasted your rental...as your rental would be offset by ABSD.
2) while many analysts shouting for interest rate increase, I still think we should be safe till 2015 or even beyond. We are into era that we have never experience before for the globe. >>>slow economic growth with prolong high unemployment in Europe & US. China will definitely be slowing as well but with ASEAN increasing number of middle class and spending, we should be cushioned...
3) if by 2014 mid and garmen still have not lift the ABSD, please consider to plunge into the mkt....:D
the effect of AEC in 2015 could be overwhelming the supply. By then, it maybe another cheong time that those MTB will continue to be on the sideline. Why? Many should hv accumulate enough ammo during the last 3-4yrs and cannoth wait any longer while the next factor comes from liberalizing of trade, service & HR...:)
4) 4key locations would benefits.....:p
Just my opinion....:o
To be continue...
Brudder, the days of say 2006 to 2011 doubling effect over 5 years is over.... Now capital gain is slow and steady because of CM....
The sad part is, not many can participate in 2nd property because of absd.... Even more cannot participate in 3 or more because of hire absd.
I must emphasize : I did not unload... I downsized and bought additional during CM... :D :D :D & hahahaha
I actually wonder why some unloaded????
So far, I made more money in one of my downsizing to waterview from Botannia.
I really don't expect a recession so soon after 2009 recession in Singapore. It is only 4 years or so since the last recession. Can some one share when they expect the next recession????
Hey lion head, why u sell har???? Damn cheem....
With all this CMs, I am expecting prices not to cheong like last time... I am not expecting prices to drop leh.....
Look at tampines gls, it is 35% more than qbay leh.....
So I tell all of you honestly, I damn blur by all this collecting ammo and waiting for crash :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
You guys/gals know something I don't know leh... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
But ok lar... Keep it to yourself hor...
For me, up/down... No difference... Please don't ask me why... Hahahahahaha
Cheers
My opinion on what a property investor shouldn't do -
If the investor has a second property (investment unit). Better don't sell.... Unless this investor is damn savvy with other financial instruments...
At lease with 2nd unit, u still getting rental yield.... Say nett 2.5%. Yield after leverage of 5 times(20% down payment)
ROI is 2.5%x5 = 12.5%
If 40% downpayment utilized,
ROI is 2.5 x 100/40 = 6.25%
If u can get rent to cover mortgage throughout your loan tenure, your housing loan amount is fully paid by your tenant.... You only paid deposit for your house. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.... Such simple logic....:D :D :D :D
Did I regret buying 1 unit at the peak of 1996???? No!!!!!! Why??????
I would never have learnt this valuable lesson.... Right now, my unit is higher than when I bot in 1996. Bot for 1.4 mil in 1996, today worth about 2 mil. All time low, 800k.... I always believe lessons must be learnt... And I really appreciate the lessons and price I paid in properties, stocks, forex, etc.... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA :D :D :D
But remember this, don't anyhow believe any forummers and do what he says... You decide your own destiny.... Only u know if you can tahan or not. Only you know your earning power. No 2 cases are the same. Cheers
:D :D :D :D
Today good mood... So mood for sharing.... Hahahahahha
Fully agreed.
However, I would also propose someone intend to buy a second unit now should only buy those resale units with tenancy. Buy new means paying future 'uptrend' price with no rental income....
Brudder, the days of say 2006 to 2011 doubling effect over 5 years is over.... Now capital gain is slow and steady because of CM....
....
Hey lion head, why u sell har???? Damn cheem....
....
Cheers
well brother chestnut must have misunderstood me. I did not say I am waiting for any crash.
I sold also not because I am waiting to pick some cheap durians. I share a major portion of your logic But with one major difference. I am more concerned about my leverage and risk position rather than gains from instrument. Well, maybe you are the 95% reported in the media that are not highly leveraged and I am the 5% which MAS is concerned about.
I respect MAS's latest banking guideline, because I have high regards for Minister Tharman. I believe he must have seen something I could not see or understand because I reminded myself about his more superior position in IMF than myself as a businessman. If he spoke as a Finance Minister of Singapore that interest rates may edge up, I would ignore him. Because he has a position in IMF,so he is definately more knowledgeble and wise than me. Although I cannot confirm he has a THIRD EYE like your handsome brother.
Here is what I feel personally after Minister Khaw and Minister Tharman warned about the possibility of a rate increase. Very obviously, from my deduction, and the way they said it, the increase might not be gradual. This is my personal opinion and you might read their messages differently from me.
That said. That is the reason why I decided to unwind my position to a more comfortable position. I am still vested though.
Good Luck.
Your Handsome Brother,
Blackjack21Trader
Secretariat
21-07-13, 18:37
Why people would exit this market?
I couldn't speak for others, moreover everyone has his/her unique circumstance, a different entry price, a different investment timeframe.
For me, it is the buying that was difficult; the selling was always easy, because it was just a reaching of a goal.
In buying, various scenarios were runned through, buffer for further downsides was set aside, the goal was set.
When people are buying up J gateway without a care today, I could assure you that to pull the buy trigger was not an easy decision in end 2009.
I was anticipating the goal (as set) to be reached in early 2014 or so. But it was reached recently, so we called in the cash.
Cheers!
Why people would exit this market?
I couldn't speak for others, moreover everyone has his/her unique circumstance, a different entry price, a different investment timeframe.
For me, it is the buying that was difficult; the selling was always easy, because it was just a reaching of a goal.
In buying, various scenarios were runned through, buffer for further downsides was set aside, the goal was set.
When people are buying up J gateway without a care today, I could assure you that to pull the buy trigger was not an easy decision in end 2009.
I was anticipating the goal (as set) to be reached in early 2014 or so. But it was reached recently, so we called in the cash.
Cheers!
You spoke my mind in your last sentence. The recent dash gave me the creep if you know what I mean. But I could be wrong, just my gut feeling only.
Thank u brudder lion for your sharing....
Now at least I got better pix from u.
Now today I good mood, so will share Somemore...
1. If over leverage, better unwind in any sign of danger... So mr lion, great move....
2. All the CMs were created to prevent an exponential rise in property prices.... If there were no CMs, today I will be off loading a few units. Hahahahahaha....
3. The CMs are to allow an equal platform for 1st timers.... Remember, private forms 20% of housing population and there must be aspirations that can be achieved to allow our top 20% to reach the goal of owning a private.
4. Many parents were buying for the kids, and this needs to be stopped.... This again, would allow aspirations to be achieved by the future top 20% or rather top 10% to enter into this "inner circle".
With future investment property having downpayment of 40% or more, can this group weather future storm??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA :D
Everybody is screaming inflation, what does this mean for the prices of properties (if there were no CMs). So CM is CORRECT!!!!!!
I stress... I am not for nor against properties... I am just sharing my views... All of you should have your own view and act according to your financial standing and your goals.... Different strokes for different people. For me, I am retiring next year leh.... Hahahahahaha :D :spliff2:
well brother chestnut must have misunderstood me. I did not say I am waiting for any crash.
I sold also not because I am waiting to pick some cheap durians. I share a major portion of your logic But with one major difference. I am more concerned about my leverage and risk position rather than gains from instrument. Well, maybe you are the 95% reported in the media that are not highly leveraged and I am the 5% which MAS is concerned about.
I respect MAS's latest banking guideline, because I have high regards for Minister Tharman. I believe he must have seen something I could not see or understand because I reminded myself about his more superior position in IMF than myself as a businessman. If he spoke as a Finance Minister of Singapore that interest rates may edge up, I would ignore him. Because he has a position in IMF,so he is definately more knowledgeble and wise than me. Although I cannot confirm he has a THIRD EYE like your handsome brother.
Here is what I feel personally after Minister Khaw and Minister Tharman warned about the possibility of a rate increase. Very obviously, from my deduction, and the way they said it, the increase might not be gradual. This is my personal opinion and you might read their messages differently from me.
That said. That is the reason why I decided to unwind my position to a more comfortable position. I am still vested though.
Good Luck.
Your Handsome Brother,
Blackjack21Trader
Brudder, when u sold, did u go into other financial instruments???
The issue is, not many are savvy with financial instruments... Herein lies the problem...
When u retire, how to get passive income???? Herein lies the problem for many.... I don't see this to be an issue for you leh :D :D
Brudder, your topic will indeed stir a lot of thinking here and this is great!!!!
Men must be flexible to change with the tide and ride different waves....
Cheers bro:cheers1: :cheers1:
Why people would exit this market?
I couldn't speak for others, moreover everyone has his/her unique circumstance, a different entry price, a different investment timeframe.
For me, it is the buying that was difficult; the selling was always easy, because it was just a reaching of a goal.
In buying, various scenarios were runned through, buffer for further downsides was set aside, the goal was set.
When people are buying up J gateway without a care today, I could assure you that to pull the buy trigger was not an easy decision in end 2009.
I was anticipating the goal (as set) to be reached in early 2014 or so. But it was reached recently, so we called in the cash.
Cheers!
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 19:04
Ha ha ok ok my humble apologies!
A matter of perspectives lah.... Whether you owe bank money or the bank owes you money! (Ah... How a few short years can make one's head very big)
From my humble experience: Not an excel sheet but "cash" when that ONE opportunity presented itself...
Agree lah. some trends you just cannot go against.
as for excel, it is just a tool to gather what you know and you have. calculate the possibilities and explore the not so possible. it has shown me insights into things that seemed impossible at first calculation but became possible.
Thank u brudder lion for your sharing....
Now at least I got better pix from u.
Now today I good mood, so will share Somemore...
1. If over leverage, better unwind in any sign of danger... So mr lion, great move....
2. All the CMs were created to prevent an exponential rise in property prices.... If there were no CMs, today I will be off loading a few units. Hahahahahaha....
3. The CMs are to allow an equal platform for 1st timers.... Remember, private forms 20% of housing population and there must be aspirations that can be achieved to allow our top 20% to reach the goal of owning a private.
4. Many parents were buying for the kids, and this needs to be stopped.... This again, would allow aspirations to be achieved by the future top 20% or rather top 10% to enter into this "inner circle".
With future investment property having downpayment of 40% or more, can this group weather future storm??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA :D
Everybody is screaming inflation, what does this mean for the prices of properties (if there were no CMs). So CM is CORRECT!!!!!!
I stress... I am not for nor against properties... I am just sharing my views... All of you should have your own view and act according to your financial standing and your goals.... Different strokes for different people. For me, I am retiring next year leh.... Hahahahahaha :D :spliff2:
That is some great advice, good brother :)
You so old meh...WOAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHHA
That is some great advice, good brother :)
You so old meh...WOAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHHA
Brudder, I am young.... I am under leveraged... I play within my comfort zone...
I share because life has been good to me and I am compelled to share without asking anything in return... Hahahahahaha... Those who think I sprout nonsense, please kindly ignore me hor.... Because if u hamtam me, I may not come back, and u may deprive others of my sharing... Hahahahahaha... Joking lah.... Just hamtam me lar....
Lion head... We should be about the same age lar... Maybe u younger by 2 years lor... U same age, younger or older than Singapore????
Bro, if u are not affected by CMs, cash out 1 and buy another cheaper one for rental is correct...:) , 100% agreeable. But if not, then the ABSD could cost u 2-3yrs of rental... if u are confident of substantial capital increase within the next 2-3 yrs, this approach is still ok...
Otherwise, here's my take for next 3 yrs. this is how I see...:2cents:
1) while interest might be low, but due to the CMs, and slowing mkt with substantial increase in supply, u should be able to afford waiting for 1 yr. rather than pay ABSD and wasted your rental...as your rental would be offset by ABSD.
2) while many analysts shouting for interest rate increase, I still think we should be safe till 2015 or even beyond. We are into era that we have never experience before for the globe. >>>slow economic growth with prolong high unemployment in Europe & US. China will definitely be slowing as well but with ASEAN increasing number of middle class and spending, we should be cushioned...
3) if by 2014 mid and garmen still have not lift the ABSD, please consider to plunge into the mkt....:D
the effect of AEC in 2015 could be overwhelming the supply. By then, it maybe another cheong time that those MTB will continue to be on the sideline. Why? Many should hv accumulate enough ammo during the last 3-4yrs and cannoth wait any longer while the next factor comes from liberalizing of trade, service & HR...:)
4) 4key locations would benefits.....:p
Just my opinion....:o
To be continue...
Excellent analysis. I personally will never sell anything. Human explosion in sg is a certainty, no matter if the global economy is good or bad. No matter interest rate low or high.
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 19:16
Brudder, I am young.... I am under leveraged... I play within my comfort zone...
I share because life has been good to me and I am compelled to share without asking anything in return... Hahahahahaha... Those who think I sprout nonsense, please kindly ignore me hor.... Because if u hamtam me, I may not come back, and u may deprive others of my sharing... Hahahahahaha... Joking lah.... Just hamtam me lar....
Lion head... We should be about the same age lar... Maybe u younger by 2 years lor... U same age, younger or older than Singapore????
Brother Chestnut and Lion King, great sharing.
It is folks like you so willing to share that I felt soo blessed and compelled to share..
directionally I am still si beh long property. just which one only.
Should avoid MMs, especially in OCRs! Massive supply and completion coming by 2015-2018! Who want to rent a dog-house in the OCRs? :scared-1:
Further, allow me to remind all brothers and sisters that there are many new projects completing by 2015 to 2018. Tenants typically go for NEW projects to rent, that is from my experience. I kena before that is how I know.
My reminder to consider this point carefully before you buy for investment.
Good Luck.
Brother Chestnut and Lion King, great sharing.
It is folks like you so willing to share that I felt soo blessed and compelled to share..
directionally I am still si beh long property. just which one only.
Brudder, your excel spreadsheet is the correct way...
Do a simulation for your investment property...
After your total number of years on loan and finishing the loan
1. If rental = mortgage, how much u made???
2. If rental < mortgage, and u pay say 1k more, how much u make??? (could be 1k, 2k, etc... Depending in your simulation)
3. If rental > mortgage... No need to do simulation. Hahahaha - can afford another prop in future... Hahahahahaha
1) Cashing in your properties is a big mistake because the CASH you take back cannot earn you similar return as a long term basis. Buying back another property is even worse because you are hit with all kind of penalties! Not doing anything with your properties is the best move......................
2) You can withdraw all your $ but will not affect interest rate, because too much CASH still stash with bank and the majority are unlikely to withdraw their cash.
Seems like quite a number with multiple properties who have cashed in recently r holding on to a major portion of the profit in cash (earning miserable interest from local banks) and waiting at the sideline because of ABSD.
At the same time we r seeing people borrowing like no tomorrow (if what yowetan is telling us is true!!!) from local banks, passing the risk to our deposit...
Just a silly thought: what would happen if enough of us forgo the lousy interest and withdraw our $!!!
Will the stingy local banks increase the saving interest rate then?
Secretariat
21-07-13, 19:37
Brudder, when u sold, did u go into other financial instruments???
The issue is, not many are savvy with financial instruments... Herein lies the problem...
When u retire, how to get passive income???? Herein lies the problem for many.... I don't see this to be an issue for you leh :D :D
Brudder, your topic will indeed stir a lot of thinking here and this is great!!!!
Men must be flexible to change with the tide and ride different waves....
Cheers bro:cheers1: :cheers1:
Haha, it would sound funny or ridiculous to many people, but I think that right now I just want to be in cash, when everyone said that cash in the bank is useless.
Cash is a great position.
Cheers!
Cyberknight
21-07-13, 19:39
Should avoid MMs, especially in OCRs! Massive supply and completion coming by 2015-2018! Who want to rent a dog-house in the OCRs? :scared-1:
actually many, those with decent condo facilities will continue to attract one type of tenant that I came to realise.
住公寓最重要，可以请人到公寓烧烤，游泳。 公租房没小区设备。
They will rent....
Secretariat
21-07-13, 19:43
You spoke my mind in your last sentence. The recent dash gave me the creep if you know what I mean. But I could be wrong, just my gut feeling only.
Yes.
And I would offer a humble advice to those sitting on lots of paper profits to keep in touch with the pulse of the resale market.
Forget about the frenzy you are seeing, for example, in J Gateway.
Every three or six months or so, just keep your housing agents busy by putting a sale ad on, and gauge the responses. You could be surprised by how slow it could be?
Cheers!
If u buy early it is very dumb to sell as your purchase price is very low, should just continue to collect rental as yield is excellent. I think ones should worry about some of the oversea property prices rather than singapore property prices.
Yes.
And I would offer a humble advice to those sitting on lots of paper profits to keep in touch with the pulse of the resale market.
Forget about the frenzy you are seeing, for example, in J Gateway.
Every three or six months or so, just keep your housing agents busy by putting a sale ad on, and gauge the responses. You could be surprised by how slow it could be?
Cheers!
Thanks for the useful info and advice.
have been reading all the old threads and discussions.
Interestingly, similar suggestions/discussions have been made by some to keep cash since 2011, and those who have been sitting on cash must have been unhappy to see prices still climbing since 2011 when some experts said investment risk too high.
Is it bec of the new CMs that u think ppty price increases have or will finally come to a halt or could this be a consolidating phase for the next climb and those keeping cash will miss the boat again?
Haha, it would sound funny or ridiculous to many people, but I think that right now I just want to be in cash, when everyone said that cash in the bank is useless.
Cash is a great position.
Cheers!
Brudder, not ridiculous leh... I holding cash wat... But I also hold properties, bonds, stocks, etc.... Cash MUST always be part of the total asset. Cash is required when cheap sales come along (black swan event, etc). Hahahaha
My bankers keep asking me to invest.... Hahahaha
Now I spreading my portfolio to cater to my retirement... Diff strategy liao.
Yes.
And I would offer a humble advice to those sitting on lots of paper profits to keep in touch with the pulse of the resale market.
Forget about the frenzy you are seeing, for example, in J Gateway.
Every three or six months or so, just keep your housing agents busy by putting a sale ad on, and gauge the responses. You could be surprised by how slow it could be?
Cheers!
The slow sales is artificially created by the cooling measures. Singaporeans are now more actively investing in properties overseas.
Regulators
21-07-13, 20:53
Depends a lot on one's objective. If u hv 4-5 ptys that gv u $$15-20k positive cash flow per month, why would you want to sell away any unit? I am currently sitting on very comfortable rental income n considered retiring soon, giving up any pty would mean losing my consistent retirement fund. Buying another one to replace means forking out ridiculous absd.
Yes.
And I would offer a humble advice to those sitting on lots of paper profits to keep in touch with the pulse of the resale market.
Forget about the frenzy you are seeing, for example, in J Gateway.
Every three or six months or so, just keep your housing agents busy by putting a sale ad on, and gauge the responses. You could be surprised by how slow it could be?
Cheers!
Secretariat
21-07-13, 21:01
Thanks for the useful info and advice.
have been reading all the old threads and discussions.
Interestingly, similar suggestions/discussions have been made by some to keep cash since 2011, and those who have been sitting on cash must have been unhappy to see prices still climbing since 2011 when some experts said investment risk too high.
Is it bec of the new CMs that u think ppty price increases have or will finally come to a halt or could this be a consolidating phase for the next climb and those keeping cash will miss the boat again?
Let's try to frame the context when we speak of cash on the sideline, specifically cash generating a risk-less returns by sitting in a savings/FD account.
When one deploys this cash, from the account, to other instruments such as bond, stock, property etc., the returns would be in relation to carrying risk of the particular instrument. Therefore, bond would get a lower return, stock should get a higher than bond etc.
So, it is risk level versus returns.
It is incredible, for me, when someone would imply that keeping cash is stupid, dumb or whatever, than putting it into property, as if property is risk-less.
Now, it is the nature of a bull market, almost any bull market you name in history, that the initial participants are the insiders, the big-money, because only them would have the capacity to make the market. In making a market, the whole purpose is to generate public awareness that a bull market is in progress. The public gets to know of it in an uneven manner, the people closer to the big-money would get in first, and then the next closer group and so on it goes.
So, a bull market is a process, taking place over time. During this time, there would be skeptics that would refuse to participate along the way, and they saw the gains of the early participants, and then they joined. The last people who join, we call this phenomenom "buyers capitulation", which would signal the climax of the bull market.
Regarding CMs, my 2-cents thought is that it has created a "trap". This is not a normal bull market, because a secondary market doesnt exist for new launches freely. This is like, the stock exchange stipulating that, this is the IPO of a stock, you could subscribe to it, but after getting your allotment, you would be taxed X% when you sell it the first year, Y% the second year and so on. Would you subscribe to the stock's IPO? Would there even be any buyer when the stock is trading on ready-basis?
So, that this is a risk-less property bull market is not true.
Cheers!
All the CM introduce more panic and buying in the past few years. The employed class is worried about job security, borrowing limits, ABSDs, retirement fear etc. The self-employed already has an option to leverage on their own venture. 5 years back, prices were so low and borrowing money from bank was much easier but how many on the employed class actually looked at property as an investment instrument.
When we talk about stocks, bonds - there is a learning curve and needs to be actively managed. The views show different personalities of our forum contributors. All in the right spirit :cheers1:
walkthetiger
21-07-13, 21:44
All the CM introduce more panic and buying in the past few years.....The employed class is worried about job security, borrowing limits, ABSDs, retirement fear etc.
Worry about job, then buy more..:rolleyes:
:) That's what I have seen. No job cannot take loan, so lock down something generating passive rental income. Age factor reduce loan borrowing tenure. There will be slowness in property like what Bro Chestnut and others mentioned. But I don't think it will drop drastically in near future. Investors looking for capital gains will cut down but those looking for rental income will still continue the play.
Worry about job, then buy more..:rolleyes:
:) That's what I have seen. No job cannot take loan, so lock down something generating passive rental income. Age factor reduce loan borrowing tenure. There will be slowness in property like what Bro Chestnut and others mentioned. But I don't think it will drop drastically in near future. Investors looking for capital gains will cut down but those looking for rental income will still continue the play.
Got job also must be careful taking loans!
I don't know about how you guys managed your investment risks/leverage factor. For myself and several family relatives, we have personally experienced it twice in the past cycles. Two of them went bankrupt in 1997 financial crisis. I was lucky to make a huge come back in 2008 when the market rebounded. I was left on a lifeline of only several months before the bank would call me. The reason how I survived 2008 was that I was managing my risk/leverage factor much better than my uncles. But markets are as usual very forgetful.
Again, like brother chestnut and some others here pointed out, there may not be any crash. A few pointed out because this bull run was artificially managed and hence we should keep our rental yielding assets which is properties.
For me, frankly, I don't care about what investment theory or philosophy. I ONLY RECOGNISE INTEREST RATES when I invest in properties. Maybe due to seeing how my uncles one by one collapsed in 1997 financial crisis. ( Some would say is it due to old age ? ). I feel I am a borderline over-leverager, hence my decision to convert a portion of my portfolio into cash to hedge the interest rates risks.
People here are very confident the rental yield will stay at the current rate? For me, I see that the rental yield is high due to the displaced demand and sudden influx of foreigners into a market with short supply back in 2008.
With so many new completion and NOW even MMs in Jurong, I am not so sure that this rental demand could still be there. It is very obvious the developers have been targeting HDB or middle class buyers who are buying the properties for investment rental yields rather than capital gains.
Good Luck,.
Your Still Very handsome uncle,
Blackjack21Trader
Got job also must be careful taking loans!
I don't know about how you guys managed your investment risks/leverage factor. For myself and several family relatives, we have personally experienced it twice in the past cycles. Two of them went bankrupt in 1997 financial crisis. I was lucky to make a huge come back in 2008 when the market rebounded. I was left on a lifeline of only several months before the bank would call me. The reason how I survived 2008 was that I was managing my risk/leverage factor much better than my uncles. But markets are as usual very forgetful.
Again, like brother chestnut and some others here pointed out, there may not be any crash. A few pointed out because this bull run was artificially managed and hence we should keep our rental yielding assets which is properties.
For me, frankly, I don't care about what investment theory or philosophy. I ONLY RECOGNISE INTEREST RATES when I invest in properties. Maybe due to seeing how my uncles one by one collapsed in 1997 financial crisis. ( Some would say is it due to old age ? ). I feel I am a borderline over-leverager, hence my decision to convert a portion of my portfolio into cash to hedge the interest rates risks.
People here are very confident the rental yield will stay at the current rate? For me, I see that the rental yield is high due to the displaced demand and sudden influx of foreigners into a market with short supply back in 2008.
With so many new completion and NOW even MMs in Jurong, I am not so sure that this rental demand could still be there. It is very obvious the developers have been targeting HDB or middle class buyers who are buying the properties for investment rental yields rather than capital gains.
Good Luck,.
Your Still Very handsome uncle,
Blackjack21Trader
Any change to your figures, in view of latest MAS measure?
Expect Singapore property :
1) Resale HDB : 3 to 5%
2) Newly completed HDB : 1 to 3%
3) Private property OCR : 3 to 5%
4) Private property CCR : 7 to 10%
5) Landed property OCR : -10% (negative )
6) Landed property in general: -10% (negative )
Brudder lion, u made the rite decision to offload... For me, it is better to have peace of mind than worry.... Peaceful sleep is important....
I don't see recession in Singapore so soon. The CMs have curtailed the steep growth in pricing for properties... So far, I am very lucky with my analysis and entering of the market (after my 1997 experience - hahahahahaha). But always be fearful of the black swan.... That's why I always keep cash by my side.... Cash is an asset.... Cash will help u in black swan events. Under such events, cash will help you do the following :
1. Buy rights issue
2. Buy cheap stocks
3. Buy cheap assets
So remember, cash is an asset.... Remember to keep some hor....
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Any change to your figures, in view of latest MAS measure?
Expect Singapore property :
1) Resale HDB : 3 to 5%
2) Newly completed HDB : 1 to 3%
3) Private property OCR : 3 to 5%
4) Private property CCR : 7 to 10%
5) Landed property OCR : -10% (negative )
6) Landed property in general: -10% (negative )
Brudder, MAS measure is not the biggest fear.... It is the population growth (or the lack of it) that property investors need to be concerned.
If population growth is still on uptrend, swee.... Your property will go up because rental will go up. Hahahahahaha
If population stall, and number of properties increase, what will happen????
I am waiting for the stats leh... Up to now, not released leh... This is the key to the revelation.... Hahahahahaha
This will decide my next move in the property market....
Swee hor...
Brudder, MAS measure is not the biggest fear.... It is the population growth (or the lack of it) that property investors need to be concerned.
If population growth is still on uptrend, swee.... Your property will go up because rental will go up. Hahahahahaha
If population stall, and number of properties increase, what will happen????
I am waiting for the stats leh... Up to now, not released leh... This is the key to the revelation.... Hahahahahaha
This will decide my next move in the property market....
Swee hor...
Yes brother, that is good logic. I have not thought of it this way :)
Any change to your figures, in view of latest MAS measure?
Expect Singapore property :
1) Resale HDB : 3 to 5%
2) Newly completed HDB : 1 to 3%
3) Private property OCR : 3 to 5%
4) Private property CCR : 7 to 10%
5) Landed property OCR : -10% (negative )
6) Landed property in general: -10% (negative )
We are at the late bull's stage in my humble view, so the figures should be around there give and take 1-2%. Maybe even more negative for landed.
Yes brother, that is good logic. I have not thought of it this way :)
Brudder, what caused the runaway prices from 2005/6 onwards???? Look at the population increase .....
This is the main key....
Look at
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/interest-rate
Key in 1990 to 1997. See interest rate then and explain to me why property prices shot up during that period....
Brudder, don't always rely on your 3rd eye....
You need ESP.... Hahahahahahaha
I share so much Liao... Now you will see me going hibernation again.... I need to dig some more info and do deep analysis... Hahahahahaha
Chao.....:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Brudder, MAS measure is not the biggest fear.... It is the population growth (or the lack of it) that property investors need to be concerned.
If population growth is still on uptrend, swee.... Your property will go up because rental will go up. Hahahahahaha
If population stall, and number of properties increase, what will happen????
I am waiting for the stats leh... Up to now, not released leh... This is the key to the revelation.... Hahahahahaha
This will decide my next move in the property market....
Swee hor...
The figures are from Bro Lion's website. He probably has to revise downwards for this year.
From JTC's website, the main growth action (due to recent industrial land sales and new plans) will be in the west for the next few years. Re-sale and rental demand will be there. http://www.jtc.gov.sg/News/Press-Releases/Pages/default.aspx
It is difficult for population to stall now. There are more marriages and babies, so we can expect citizen population growth to climb. If the government maintains the immigration number, it will be caught off guard by the upgraders who need more space for their children in the next few years when the children grow up.
I'm expecting the immigration numbers to increase in the next 1-2 years because Singapore is moving rapidly into new manfacturing and service areas that the local universities and polytechnics are not producing fast enough, and the graduates may not have accumulated sufficient experience.
Brudder, expect and getting the facts are 2 different things....
With facts come reality.... I also expect but waiting for fact to prove my theory... Hahahahahaha
As for last leg of the bull run.... Again, I damn confused...
We were in the worst recession until even mm say it is long lasting.... Remember??????
Let me ask you 1 simple question mr lion.... Has the STI reached its previous peak???? Do u expect it to supercede the previous peak and by how much??? When u think it will just surpass the previous peak????
Brudders, I may be wrong hor.... You all can contradict me leh... Remember, there is this thing called the black swan which I love.... Black swan provides opportunities hor... We must love to embrace black swan events... But to properly embrace it, we need to hold $$$$$$. Hahahahahaha :cheers4: :cheers5: :cheers3:
The figures are from Bro Lion's website. He probably has to revise downwards for this year.
From JTC's website, the main growth action (due to recent industrial land sales and new plans) will be in the west for the next few years. Re-sale and rental demand will be there.
It is difficult for population to stall now. There are more marriages and babies, so we can expect citizen population growth to climb. If the government maintains the immigration number, it will be caught off guard by the upgraders who need more space for their children in the next few years when the children grow up.
I'm expecting the immigration numbers to increase in the next 1-2 years because Singapore is moving rapidly into new manfacturing and service areas that the local universities and polytechnics are not producing fast enough, and the graduates may not have accumulated sufficient experience.
Brudder, expect and getting the facts are 2 different things....
With facts come reality.... I also expect but waiting for fact to prove my theory... Hahahahahaha
As for last leg of the bull run.... Again, I damn confused...
We were in the worst recession until even mm say it is long lasting.... Remember??????
Let me ask you 1 simple question mr lion.... Has the STI reached its previous peak???? Do u expect it to supercede the previous peak and by how much??? When u think it will just surpass the previous peak????
Brudders, I may be wrong hor.... You all can contradict me leh... Remember, there is this thing called the black swan which I love.... Black swan provides opportunities hor... We must love to embrace black swan events... But to properly embrace it, we need to hold $$$$$$. Hahahahahaha :cheers4: :cheers5: :cheers3:
I agree on the holding $ part, but to me, it is more as a buffer. The only black swan event that can possibly happen to Singapore is likely to be in 2016.
I agree on the holding $ part, but to me, it is more as a buffer. The only black swan event that can possibly happen to Singapore is likely to be in 2016.
Brudder, black swan is when u don't expect and it hits u... Example
1997, 2008
Unexpected events with major buying opportunities.... :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
With so much liquidity all over, asset prices will go up....
How many expect STI to hit its previous peak?????
We suffered 1997,2000,2003.... The property prices just surpassed 1996 previous peak and people expect price drop so soon.... I :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
For me, prices of properties are not going up because of CM... Hahahahahaha
Anyways, I just tcss... If I really can predict so well, I already buy 100 properties leh.... Hahahahahaha :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Brudder, black swan is when u don't expect and it hits u... Example
1997, 2008
Unexpected events with major buying opportunities.... :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
With so much liquidity all over, asset prices will go up....
How many expect STI to hit its previous peak?????
We suffered 1997,2000,2003.... The property prices just surpassed 1996 previous peak and people expect price drop so soon.... I :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
For me, prices of properties are not going up because of CM... Hahahahahaha
Anyways, I just tcss... If I really can predict so well, I already buy 100 properties leh.... Hahahahahaha :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
If your blackswan means big discount in property prices, then I have misunderstood you. I meant probably political in 2016 and some further shift in policies thereafter.
Secretariat
22-07-13, 07:54
Brudder, MAS measure is not the biggest fear.... It is the population growth (or the lack of it) that property investors need to be concerned.
If population growth is still on uptrend, swee.... Your property will go up because rental will go up. Hahahahahaha
If population stall, and number of properties increase, what will happen????
I am waiting for the stats leh... Up to now, not released leh... This is the key to the revelation.... Hahahahahaha
This will decide my next move in the property market....
Swee hor...
Every bull market started with strong fundamentals. In our case, there existed (may still exist) a supply shortfall as per MBT legacy. The demand has been unleashed with the supply of liquidity as per FED policy. At the later stage, participants would ignore the fundamental, whether it still exists.
In other words, without the QEs it is doubtful that the demand was as strong as it was initially.
So, a bull market is always a bull market of liquidity supply. In our case, property is the instrument where this liquidity supply is being channeled. The signal of a dwindling liquidity supply is of course the increasing Interest rate. An increasing interest rate may not necessary stop a bull run, provided that the participants continued to get good returns when entering the market.
Cheers!
Every bull market started with strong fundamentals. In our case, there existed (may still exist) a supply shortfall as per MBT legacy. The demand has been unleashed with the supply of liquidity as per FED policy. At the later stage, participants would ignore the fundamental, whether it still exists.
In other words, without the QEs it is doubtful that the demand was as strong as it was initially.
So, a bull market is always a bull market of liquidity supply. In our case, property is the instrument where this liquidity supply is being channeled. The signal of a dwindling liquidity supply is of course the increasing Interest rate. An increasing interest rate may not necessary stop a bull run, provided that the participants continued to get good returns when entering the market.
Cheers!
Brudder, u damn analytical leh... Wat I am saying is the bull run is now turning to a snail crawl. Hahahahaha
I mentioned this in previous post leh.... I am out of props and now I to other investments leh.... I did not encourage buying of props leh.
I just wondering why people think there will be a recession? When sti has not hit previous peak?
Interest rates were damn high in prior to 1996 peak. What caused the bull run up then when interest rate was high? Hahaha
Hold cash for unforeseen circumstance I fully agree... Not investing now I also blur? But different strokes for different people rite. So long as can sleep well at nite, that is the best strategy.... Hahahaha.
Cheers
If your blackswan means big discount in property prices, then I have misunderstood you. I meant probably political in 2016 and some further shift in policies thereafter.
Politically wise if can make the middle class/HDB dwellers happy and tide over a blackswan, then we should still be very stable beyond 2016 with the current PAP in power. If between now and 2016 anything happens like a blackswan, then I cannot say for sure liao.
Brother chestnut reference to the interest rate chart @ http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/interest-rate has woke up my THIRD EYE.
If you zoomed into 1980,1997 particularly the interest rates shot up to 20% ( Believe is Oil Crisis 1980) and 10% twice in 1997( Financial Crisis Thailand and Hong Kong ).
A short span of time like several months, but long enough to reset the wealth of many and sent a few up lorry.
Good Luck, that is all I can reveal. I am still working on my Celestial 2014 Prediction, so I cannot really conclude at this point of time.
Secretariat
22-07-13, 08:06
Got job also must be careful taking loans!
I don't know about how you guys managed your investment risks/leverage factor. For myself and several family relatives, we have personally experienced it twice in the past cycles. Two of them went bankrupt in 1997 financial crisis. I was lucky to make a huge come back in 2008 when the market rebounded. I was left on a lifeline of only several months before the bank would call me. The reason how I survived 2008 was that I was managing my risk/leverage factor much better than my uncles. But markets are as usual very forgetful.
.................
Good Luck,.
Your Still Very handsome uncle,
Blackjack21Trader
You brought up, in my view, the most important risk factor in property investment - the leverage.
People who are familiar with other investment instruments would know that you couldn't really invest in bond, stock with the kind of 4-to-1 leverage you could get in property. And yet, 4-to-1 is still the leverage available to people wanting to buy a property, when they don't have an outstanding mortage. It is ironic that, when the median prices have grown some 65% since the lows in 2009, the highest leverage ratio is being offered to those who are buying their first properties.
Cheers!
You brought up, in my view, the most important risk factor in property investment - the leverage.
People who are familiar with other investment instruments would know that you couldn't really invest in bond, stock with the kind of 4-to-1 leverage you could get in property. And yet, 4-to-1 is still the leverage available to people wanting to buy a property, when they don't have an outstanding mortage. It is ironic that, when the median prices have grown some 65% since the lows in 2009, the highest leverage ratio is being offered to those who are buying their first properties.
Cheers!
You are a very clever person. I think I know what is in your mind but you do not wish to reveal FULLY your thoughts. That is correct.
But let me put it in less offensive form so that it will be acceptable for the general to read:
Brother, you are right. The whole concept is LEVERAGE. You see how high interest comes before RECESSION ( NOT AFTER !) and that is why LEVERAGE and RISK is the most important factors in my mind. What causes a recession is a high interest rates SPIKES that wiped out many businesses and my uncles. ( cool, interest rates took a blame for my uncles's perils, WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH)
Brudder, 1997... Many biz were doing borrowing in sing dollar and when crisis happened, their in country currency weakened which resulted in jialat situation.
So there is some reference for your future.... Hahahaha... U are smart and should be able to read what I am telling u hor.... This one is my little gift to you... Figure out what happen to this indo biz who borrowed in sing dollar to take advantage of our lower interest rate. Just an example.
Hahahahahaha
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Politically wise if can make the middle class/HDB dwellers happy and tide over a blackswan, then we should still be very stable beyond 2016 with the current PAP in power. If between now and 2016 anything happens like a blackswan, then I cannot say for sure liao.
Brother chestnut reference to the interest rate chart @ http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/interest-rate has woke up my THIRD EYE.
If you zoomed into 1980,1997 particularly the interest rates shot up to 20% ( Believe is Oil Crisis 1980) and 10% twice in 1997( Financial Crisis Thailand and Hong Kong ).
A short span of time like several months, but long enough to reset the wealth of many and sent a few up lorry.
Good Luck, that is all I can reveal. I am still working on my Celestial 2014 Prediction, so I cannot really conclude at this point of time.
Brudder, 1997... Many biz were doing borrowing in sing dollar and when crisis happened, their in country currency weakened which resulted in jialat situation.
So there is some reference for your future.... Hahahaha... U are smart and should be able to read what I am telling u hor.... This one is my little gift to you... Figure out what happen to this indo biz who borrowed in sing dollar to take advantage of our lower interest rate. Just an example.
Hahahahahaha
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Thanks in advance, good brother ;) But brother Secretariat is smarter but ACT BLURR like you leh..WOAAHAHHHEHEHEHEH
Brudder, the new CM dictates 40 or 50% downpayment... For investor... Rite??
So what is the impact should interest rate go up???
Do u foresee Sibor to shoot from 0.35 to 1% or even 3%....?????
The key now is negotiate for fixed rate on interest when your loan is due... So u can sleep peacefully. Hahahahahaha
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
You are a very clever person. I think I know what is in your mind but you do not wish to reveal FULLY your thoughts. That is correct.
But let me put it in less offensive form so that it will be acceptable for the general to read:
Brother, you are right. The whole concept is LEVERAGE. You see how high interest comes before RECESSION ( NOT AFTER !) and that is why LEVERAGE and RISK is the most important factors in my mind. What causes a recession is a high interest rates SPIKES that wiped out many businesses and my uncles. ( cool, interest rates took a blame for my uncles's perils, WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH)
Secretariat
22-07-13, 08:24
Brudder, u damn analytical leh... Wat I am saying is the bull run is now turning to a snail crawl. Hahahahaha
I mentioned this in previous post leh.... I am out of props and now I to other investments leh.... I did not encourage buying of props leh.
I just wondering why people think there will be a recession? When sti has not hit previous peak?
Interest rates were damn high in prior to 1996 peak. What caused the bull run up then when interest rate was high? Hahaha
Hold cash for unforeseen circumstance I fully agree... Not investing now I also blur? But different strokes for different people rite. So long as can sleep well at nite, that is the best strategy.... Hahahaha.
Cheers
Lol, I didn't say there would be a recession, or a property market crash la...
What is a investment? Making an investment is really just moving the money from the bank account, park it in an instrument that in one's judgement that at the end when moving it back to the bank account, one would get far more money.
It is all judgement.
What would motivate one to move the money from the bank account? Normally, when the outlook is inflationary, then it would be better to park the money in an instrument with returns that beats the inflation rate. When the outlook is deflationary, then it should be better to keep the money in the bank account, even when the bank provides close to zero interest rate.
Cheers!
Thanks in advance, good brother ;) But brother Secretariat is smarter but ACT BLURR like you leh..WOAAHAHHHEHEHEHEH
Brudder, everyone here is smarter than me... I tell u honestly, I am a blur sotong, and old foggy, and only know how to tcss... Don't believe everything I say hor...
I very free now adays.... Dksg is office boy. Me, I swatting mosquito one...
Hahahahahaha
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Brudder, the new CM dictates 40 or 50% downpayment... For investor... Rite??
So what is the impact should interest rate go up???
Do u foresee Sibor to shoot from 0.35 to 1% or even 3%....?????
The key now is negotiate for fixed rate on interest when your loan is due... So u can sleep peacefully. Hahahahahaha
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Now I see MAS's FULL rationale for putting all the CMs in place liao. Wahhh...this Tharman really very smart hor.....:)
Bro, u mistaken Liao...
I didn't say u leh... There are people who say recession coming... I just blur:confused: :confused: :confused:
I seriously think CASH is an asset.... Without CASH, how to buy properties when down turn????
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
May your dreams come true.... Because if it does, I will be there... Hahahahahaha
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Lol, I didn't say there would be a recession, or a property market crash la...
What is a investment? Making an investment is really just moving the money from the bank account, park it in an instrument that in one's judgement that at the end when moving it back to the bank account, one would get far more money.
It is all judgement.
What would motivate one to move the money from the bank account? Normally, when the outlook is inflationary, then it would be better to park the money in an instrument with returns that beats the inflation rate. When the outlook is deflationary, then it should be better to keep the money in the bank account, even when the bank provides close to zero interest rate.
Cheers!
Brudder, everyone here is smarter than me... I tell u honestly, I am a blur sotong, and old foggy, and only know how to tcss... Don't believe everything I say hor...
I very free now adays.... Dksg is office boy. Me, I swatting mosquito one...
Hahahahahaha
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Now I also see why there could only be a soft landing and not a collapse if a Blackswan comes along. Wahhhh...this Ah Khaw also very smart hor....:) Wonder if Tharman and Ah Khaw retire next time got people of same calibre to take over bo har ? They can really take on the US of A...SWEE !
Now I see MAS's FULL rationale for putting all the CMs in place liao. Wahhh...this Tharman really very smart hor.....:)
Brudder, more than that.... Look deeper and you will see the rationale.... There are a few more reasons hor... Hahahahahaha
See, when I good mood, I share with u wat..... Hahahahahaha
Brudder lion.... Ringo is a very smart boy.... Look at him and I predict in 10 yr time, he will be rich.... Train him leh...
For me, I just swatting mosquito... Oops, just killed one more... Hahahaha
Brudder lion.... Ringo is a very smart boy.... Look at him and I predict in 10 yr time, he will be rich.... Train him leh...
For me, I just swatting mosquito... Oops, just killed one more... Hahahaha
So rebellious and hot blooded how to train?
WOAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAH
You are a very clever person. I think I know what is in your mind but you do not wish to reveal FULLY your thoughts. That is correct.
But let me put it in less offensive form so that it will be acceptable for the general to read:
Brother, you are right. The whole concept is LEVERAGE. You see how high interest comes before RECESSION ( NOT AFTER !) and that is why LEVERAGE and RISK is the most important factors in my mind.
brudder, if you already own few properties, the satisfaction and thrill of owning 1 or 2 property is not as great as someone young who is buying their first private property. Hence for the latter group, they will be more willing take risk or make sacrifices if interest rate goes up as compare to someone who is already in their 50s or someone who have gotten used to making big capital gain in the past.
Ultimate it is the cost of buying, regulation and the lack of high return potential that is making the risk less worthwhile.
brudder, if you already own few properties, the satisfaction and thrill of owning 1 or 2 property is not as great as someone young who is buying their first private property. Hence for the latter group, they will be more willing take risk or make sacrifices if interest rate goes up as compare to someone who is already in their 50s or someone who have gotten used to making big capital gain in the past.
Ultimate it is the lack of high return potential that is making the risk less worthwhile.
You so old meh...? You always quarrel with that dunno who I forget his name liao. But I agree with you lor... WOAHAhahaHAHAHAH
So rebellious and hot blooded how to train?
WOAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAH
Bro, he is practicing immersion protocol.
Bro, he is practicing immersion protocol.
no wonder....LOL
So rebellious and hot blooded how to train?
WOAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAH
But come to think of it, I know got one very shrewd investor in real life temperament also like that. He control his temperament by reminding himself with a tattoo " 忍“ on his body. Not suggesting to Ringo boy to do the same and tatto that all over his body hor... WOAHAAHHAHAHHAHAH
But come to think of it, I know got one very shrewd investor in real life temperament also like that. He control his temperament by reminding himself with a tattoo " 忍“ on his body. Not suggesting to Ringo boy to do the same and tatto that all over his body hor... WOAHAAHHAHAHHAHAH
But paiseh my temperament also like that one hor.. although I very handsome on the outside leh..HEHEHEHHEHEH
my 2c
Dont:
1. think of property investment as a short term play
2. neglect the maths and do your sums diligently
3. omit to plan for worse and worst case scenarios
4. see leverage as a dirty word
5. have a soft ear and soak up every darn thing u hear
6. have a herd mentality - when the news is out in mainstream it is already stale
7. let emotions cloud your judgement - only allow them for own stay home and not investment projects
8. keep all your eggs in one single basket
9. forget that nobody is invincible (to the effects of the global economy)
and last but not least
10. dont look back in anger (to quote a brit band song) - once you have committed dont regret and start with the what ifs
Secretariat
22-07-13, 08:53
Brudder lion.... Ringo is a very smart boy.... Look at him and I predict in 10 yr time, he will be rich.... Train him leh...
For me, I just swatting mosquito... Oops, just killed one more... Hahahaha
Haha, I swat also...
To be honest, I thought that Ringo is very smart too. However, he would need to experience (or see some experiences) a big failure to make him a complete investor. Be very fearful of what a market could do to you; it is not all rosy la.
(Note: Take it easy Ringo, I meant good.)
Cheers!
Are you semi-retire or retire now? ;)
Brudder, everyone here is smarter than me... I tell u honestly, I am a blur sotong, and old foggy, and only know how to tcss... Don't believe everything I say hor...
I very free now adays.... Dksg is office boy. Me, I swatting mosquito one...
Hahahahahaha
:cheers4: :cheers4: :cheers4:
Haha, I swat also...
To be honest, I thought that Ringo is very smart too. However, he would need to experience (or see some experiences) a big failure to make him a complete investor. Be very fearful of what a market could do to you; it is not all rosy la.
(Note: Take it easy Ringo, I meant good.)
Cheers!
Brudder, I had so many failures. Hahahaha
It thot me
1 lesson
2. Humility
my 2c
Dont:
1. think of property investment as a short term play
2. neglect the maths and do your sums diligently
3. omit to plan for worse and worst case scenarios
4. see leverage as a dirty word
5. have a soft ear and soak up every darn thing u hear
6. have a herd mentality - when the news is out in mainstream it is already stale
7. let emotions cloud your judgement - only allow them for own stay home and not investment projects
8. keep all your eggs in one single basket
9. forget that nobody is invincible (to the effects of the global economy)
and last but not least
10. dont look back in anger (to quote a brit band song) - once you have committed dont regret and start with the what ifs
Sweet wise words. Property is the final frontier, final destination. No matter where the money come from (inheritance, working, gambling, stealing, etc) in the end it will always come to the final resting place, which is property. That's why in the long term it will always appreciate. The question is long term or short term. What we are doing now is looking for the short term appreciation.
Short-term appreciation can be a gamble. I am looking at mid- to long term. Short-term will be in stocks.
Sweet wise words. Property is the final frontier, final destination. No matter where the money come from (inheritance, working, gambling, stealing, etc) in the end it will always come to the final resting place, which is property. That's why in the long term it will always appreciate. The question is long term or short term. What we are doing now is looking for the short term appreciation.
With so many lazy (including me) bumps jumping into properties for gain & rental yield so as to retire early, the goods should be ending faster. Developers are rushing to entice all these goondos before the game ends
Secretariat
22-07-13, 09:34
OK, let's explore another scenario which a property investor shouldn't do in today's condition. I am sure that it is controversial, so all debates are welcomed.
Scenario:
After reviewing the state of development where his investment property is located, the profile of his tenants over the year, an invetsor thought that he should sell the unit and buy another unit with the sale proceed.
Don't:
Increase the leverage ratio of the investment by buying another unit.
In other words, an exercise like this would make sense only when the leverage ratio falls. For example, when the leverage ratio of the current investment unit is say 3-to-1, it should be say 2-to-1 for the other unit.
Cheers!
With so many lazy (including me) bumps jumping into properties for gain & rental yield so as to retire early, the goods should be ending faster. Developers are rushing to entice all these goondos before the game ends
Dev and gov, what's the different? Nothing happen in sg without the approval of the gov planning committee. They are not about to crash the market. The gov are only making sure a group of people not hoarding all the properties, while the other group having none. That would be a political disaster.
OK, let's explore another scenario which a property investor shouldn't do in today's condition. I am sure that it is controversial, so all debates are welcomed.
Scenario:
After reviewing the state of development where his investment property is located, the profile of his tenants over the year, an invetsor thought that he should sell the unit and buy another unit with the sale proceed.
Don't:
Increase the leverage ratio of the investment by buying another unit.
In other words, an exercise like this would make sense only when the leverage ratio falls. For example, when the leverage ratio of the current investment unit is say 3-to-1, it should be say 2-to-1 for the other unit.
Cheers!
This is very common scenario if you own a property that is already more than 10 years old because rental demand for most older apartment will start to fall while cost of maintenance will start to rise. So there is always this thought of selling it to buy a newer apartment.
Leverage ratio sure confirm fall for owner with 2nd and 3rd property unless the property you sold is already more than 70% paid up.
And to achieve that ideal ratio, usually people will have to downsize their ambition to buy a smaller apartment, which explain why smaller quantum apartment are more popular these days.
Dev and gov, what's the different? Nothing happen in sg without the approval of the gov planning committee. They are not about to crash the market. The gov are only making sure a group of people not hoarding all the properties, while the other group having none. That would be a political disaster.
Clap, clap
Clap, clap
Terima kasih Pak
Brudder mcm, can u do me a favour. Are u able to get the total number of rental units from ura? Then we compare w total number of private and see the ratio?
Interesting to find out how many % rented and % for self stay.
Thanks if u can find out. I super bad in such things
my 2c
Dont:
1. think of property investment as a short term play
2. neglect the maths and do your sums diligently
3. omit to plan for worse and worst case scenarios
4. see leverage as a dirty word
5. have a soft ear and soak up every darn thing u hear
6. have a herd mentality - when the news is out in mainstream it is already stale
7. let emotions cloud your judgement - only allow them for own stay home and not investment projects
8. keep all your eggs in one single basket
9. forget that nobody is invincible (to the effects of the global economy)
and last but not least
10. dont look back in anger (to quote a brit band song) - once you have committed dont regret and start with the what ifs
Brudder mcm, can u do me a favour. Are u able to get the total number of rental units from ura? Then we compare w total number of private and see the ratio?
Interesting to find out how many % rented and % for self stay.
Thanks if u can find out. I super had in such things
I think you can actually get some info from onemap now.
Look under population query/tenancy/tenant.
Dev and gov, what's the different? Nothing happen in sg without the approval of the gov planning committee. They are not about to crash the market. The gov are only making sure a group of people not hoarding all the properties, while the other group having none. That would be a political disaster.
So you mean the oversupply of PC in the coming years is intentional. Gov want more people to own a piece of condo even knowing that supposedly only 20% of the population can afford? pasir ris alone they are building 80% PC & 20% public housing. Open your eyes wider
Terima kasih Pak
When property crash, it is a sign of major recession and there is so much our dear govt can do.
Why would they want it to crash when it is the pillar of our 'economy'?
Hahahaha
Indomie, u are so smart. U must have gone Borobudur. Was there last week. Only 1 golf course there. So sad.
So you mean the oversupply of PC in the coming years is intentional. Gov want more people to own a piece of condo even knowing that supposedly only 20% of the population can afford? pasir ris alone they are building 80% PC & 20% public housing. Open your eyes wider
Brudder, immigrants need a home - either hdb, private or hotel.
So the population is the key.
I think you can actually get some info from onemap now.
Look under population query/tenancy/tenant.
Brudder, I was very hardworking in the past like u... Now I lazy leh... I just share my analysis... I no longer playing props. Paiseh...
All this will benefit u guys of the next gen. Hahahaha
Your analysis of mm for west is superb.... I believe that story hor
So you mean the oversupply of PC in the coming years is intentional. Gov want more people to own a piece of condo even knowing that supposedly only 20% of the population can afford? pasir ris alone they are building 80% PC & 20% public housing. Open your eyes wider
When is the sg gov ever build (or created) oversupply of anything at all? So many hotel build, now full. Such a big airport, now all full. So many hospitals, all full. So many schools, all full. So many taxi, all full.
All i know is someone that started this thread has sold his property and hoping for a crash. He is creating fear. But i have some nice entertainment reading. Lol.
Btw all talk cock lah. Interest rate is still lower than HDB loan rate.
Brudder, I am young.... I am under leveraged... I play within my comfort zone...
I share because life has been good to me and I am compelled to share without asking anything in return... Hahahahahaha... Those who think I sprout nonsense, please kindly ignore me hor.... Because if u hamtam me, I may not come back, and u may deprive others of my sharing... Hahahahahaha... Joking lah.... Just hamtam me lar....
Lion head... We should be about the same age lar... Maybe u younger by 2 years lor... U same age, younger or older than Singapore????
Tai Kor,
I must be younger than you... I confess that I am overleveraging......:D
Excellent analysis. I personally will never sell anything. Human explosion in sg is a certainty, no matter if the global economy is good or bad. No matter interest rate low or high.
Frankly if interest rate goes up by 1% , is it really that bad on our mortgage payment? i did a check, not so bad as what the analyst put it to be. Did I miss out anything? :confused:
Tai Kor,
I must be younger than you... I confess that I am overleveraging......:D
Brudder, I am definitely older than you....
Leveraging is not an evil if you can tame it and know how to use it....
A knife is good if you know how to use it. use it wrongly and it turns against you.... This topic is too cheem for a forum lar.... One day when I super free, I will pen it down. Hahahahaha:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
Frankly if interest rate goes up by 1% , is it really that bad on our mortgage payment? i did a check, not so bad as what the analyst put it to be. Did I miss out anything? :confused:
If interest rate goes up to 1%
Be PREPARED for 2% to even 3% (momentum swing)
note that int rate up by 2x doesnt mean ur mortgage monthly quantum oso up 2x. its much less than that esp if tenure is long.
bro nutnut... to ur qn i dunno leh. guess can total up all the property rental figures one by one from ura site? will take forever.
maybe www.squarefoot.com.sg might have some overall info. lemme explore...
A Big Thank you to Secretariat for starting this thread
Benefitted so much from all the sharing :ashamed1:
fyi all
http://sbr.com.sg/sites/default/files/news/investment.JPG
Dev and gov, what's the different? Nothing happen in sg without the approval of the gov planning committee. They are not about to crash the market. The gov are only making sure a group of people not hoarding all the properties, while the other group having none. That would be a political disaster.
this is what i always thought the gov is doing.. in a way, to give chance to the first timer... of course I would love to hoard all the properties, but cannot be so selfish right? so in the end, make a bit of money good liao, cannot be so greedy...
http://sbr.com.sg/sites/default/files/news/majorlaunches.JPG
anyone noticed any pattern?
A Big Thank you to Secretariat for starting this thread
Benefitted so much from all the sharing :ashamed1:
yes thank you Secretariat... his posts and brohter Vic's (cbsh38584 ) always make me think...cannot be too complacent...
this forum now more interesting.. recently all very bored as not many news ana happening but many many quarrells...:D
East Lover
22-07-13, 11:19
most new projects are in far far away land? :D
http://sbr.com.sg/sites/default/files/news/majorlaunches.JPG
anyone noticed any pattern?
most new projects are in far far away land? :D
Whenever a huge force strikes the center of the ocean... ripples and waves will spread outwards enlarging the impact. Until eventually the energy gets transferred and the ripples die off...
We are now witnessing the force on the outskirts.
I beg to differ on rental demand falls on older condo. I have condos that have secured higher rental each time I renew and the time of vacancy is less than 3 weeks. It all boils down to location.
This is very common scenario if you own a property that is already more than 10 years old because rental demand for most older apartment will start to fall while cost of maintenance will start to rise. So there is always this thought of selling it to buy a newer apartment.
Leverage ratio sure confirm fall for owner with 2nd and 3rd property unless the property you sold is already more than 70% paid up.
And to achieve that ideal ratio, usually people will have to downsize their ambition to buy a smaller apartment, which explain why smaller quantum apartment are more popular these days.
When is the sg gov ever build (or created) oversupply of anything at all? So many hotel build, now full. Such a big airport, now all full. So many hospitals, all full. So many schools, all full. So many taxi, all full.
Yes, you can call MBT to check. You know how's BTO comes about?
I beg to differ on rental demand falls on older condo. I have condos that have secured higher rental each time I renew and the time of vacancy is less than 3 weeks. It all boils down to location.
location doesnt change much over time, but the property that you bought 10 years ago on the same location will age over time.
While you might be happy saying that rental is up all the time but in terms of rental yield based on updated current valuation, is your yield rising?
proud owner
22-07-13, 12:33
Now I also see why there could only be a soft landing and not a collapse if a Blackswan comes along. Wahhhh...this Ah Khaw also very smart hor....:) Wonder if Tharman and Ah Khaw retire next time got people of same calibre to take over bo har ? They can really take on the US of A...SWEE !
bro
I do not know the ministers personally nor in depth ..
I always thought our ministers are just Spoke Person .. there are many smart people behind the scene who prepare everything for them ..to go to the press or public to announce ..
am I right or wrong ?
are Khaw and Tharman really good ? or are the people behind and working within their ministries that are smart ?
I knew last time got one minister of Education ... knn his English damn poor .. pronunciation all wrong ..
also .. these 2 were around when MBT was the chief .. how come PAP didn't put khaw there earlier if he was the real genius ?
or why didn't khaw give MTB some advice last time ?
Rental yield by % term may have dropped but your capital appreciation would hae gone up by 50%, one fold or more. Tenants are helping you to pay for your dream homes with good leverage on OPM (banks). Imagine the lost if you would have put your money in the bank 10 years ago instead of in a property that gives both capital appreciation and net passive income. Note: 10 years ago is when SARs hit Singapore. Too bad if you sold off during lemon times. Enbloc even better. :D
location doesnt change much over time, but the property that you bought 10 years ago on the same location will age over time.
While you might be happy saying that rental is up all the time but in terms of rental yield based on updated current valuation, is your yield rising?
Yes, you can call MBT to check. You know how's BTO comes about?
BTO is the reason why the whole young sg population is not moving overseas. If the minister suddenly say we don't have enough BTO, all the young people will move to australia. Off course the gov have to say there will be more than enough. BTO is the stepping stone for young people aspire to own a PC. In this way, HDB resale will always be strong.
Rental yield by % term may have dropped but your capital appreciation would hae gone up by 50%, one fold or more. Tenants are helping you to pay for your dream homes with good leverage on OPM (banks). Imagine the lost if you would have put your money in the bank 10 years ago instead of in a property that gives both capital appreciation and net passive income. Note: 10 years ago is when SARs hit Singapore. Too bad if you sold off during lemon times. Enbloc even better. :D
Please dont just read my post, but read what my post is replying to so that you understand what we talking about.
We are not talking about owning property or keep cash. We are talking about selling one to buy one.
Scenario:
After reviewing the state of development where his investment property is located, the profile of his tenants over the year, an invetsor thought that he should sell the unit and buy another unit with the sale proceed.
Brudder, I am responding to your comment:
Originally Posted by Ringo33
location doesnt change much over time, but the property that you bought 10 years ago on the same location will age over time.
While you might be happy saying that rental is up all the time but in terms of rental yield based on updated current valuation, is your yield rising?
Cannot find the link to SELLING one to buy one.:confused:
Please dont just read my post, but read what my post is replying to so that you understand what we talking about.
We are not talking about owning property or keep cash. We are talking about selling one to buy one.
Brudder, I am responding to your comment:
Originally Posted by Ringo33
location doesnt change much over time, but the property that you bought 10 years ago on the same location will age over time.
While you might be happy saying that rental is up all the time but in terms of rental yield based on updated current valuation, is your yield rising?
Cannot find the link to SELLING one to buy one.:confused:
you might want to scroll back to page 14 post #139 to see what exactly I am commenting on, and then look at how you slowing pulling the discussion away from the "scenario" (look up meaning in dictionary) and start talking about how wise to own property and not put money in the bank.
Like i said
"Please dont just read my post, but read what my post is replying to"
Regulators
22-07-13, 13:34
His agenda is to promote new condos over buying old condos just because he just bought a one bedder at j gateway, falsely claiming old condos hv falling rental demand. He has no evidence to to prove his claim.
I wouldn't even bother listening to a person who has that "investment sense" to pay $1700psf for 20% of wasted space in a 44sm dog box n rely on price trend during the financial crisis to justify his later investment.
Brudder, I am responding to your comment:
Originally Posted by Ringo33
location doesnt change much over time, but the property that you bought 10 years ago on the same location will age over time.
While you might be happy saying that rental is up all the time but in terms of rental yield based on updated current valuation, is your yield rising?
Cannot find the link to SELLING one to buy one.:confused:
Office Boy is BACK!
Office Boy got one simple Dont to contribute to this discussion.
DONT EVER buy at record prices!
The only small little exception is when surrounding are all selling at prices much higher than the one you eyeing. Then you will need an expert eye to know if what you are buying is just a temporary laggard, or a permanent impairment.
When the surrounding are all selling at $1,800, then got this new launch selling at $2,400 ---> Dont touch it!
Sometimes I maybe wrong, but since we here can only buy that number of properties, why risk it ?
Ok! Thats all I gott contribute.
Happy investing - Huat BIG BIG !
DKSG
bro nutnut
I did some tabulation from URA non landed stamped rental contracts period Jun 2012 to May 2013 (i chose one year as avg since contracts get made and renewed or terminated in no particular pattern trend).
7,717 (D1-5)
13,050 (D6-10)
12,267 (D11-15)
6,282 (D16-20)
5,890 (D21-26)
448 (D27-28)
=45,654 in total
out of estimate 71644 apt and 137602 condo
= 209246 in total (ref singstat as of jun 2013)
total % leased is 21.8 on avg per annum basis
Ok im outta this thread liao as its started turning into the other threads pattern...
Office Boy is BACK!
Office Boy got one simple Dont to contribute to this discussion.
DONT EVER buy at record prices!
The only small little exception is when surrounding are all selling at prices much higher than the one you eyeing. Then you will need an expert eye to know if what you are buying is just a temporary laggard, or a permanent impairment.
When the surrounding are all selling at $1,800, then got this new launch selling at $2,400 ---> Dont touch it!
DKSG
then i buy the one that's $1800.......
Brudder mcm... Kum Sia.
Interesting hor. 80/20 rule again....
So out of 100% of private - less than 20% have 2 or more. We also know many hdb dwellers also rent out their condo.
So in times of trouble. 80% are home stay.
So 20% of rental from total of 20% (private occupy 20% of total market) means 4% of total market is private rental. I did not calculate hdb rental hor.
Thanks mcm bro
bro nutnut
I did some tabulation from URA non landed stamped rental contracts period Jun 2012 to May 2013 (i chose one year as avg since contracts get made and renewed or terminated in no particular pattern trend).
7,717 (D1-5)
13,050 (D6-10)
12,267 (D11-15)
6,282 (D16-20)
5,890 (D21-26)
448 (D27-28)
=45,654 in total
out of estimate 71644 apt and 137602 condo
= 209246 in total (ref singstat as of jun 2013)
total % leased is 21.8 on avg per annum basis
Secretariat
22-07-13, 14:00
BTO is the reason why the whole young sg population is not moving overseas. If the minister suddenly say we don't have enough BTO, all the young people will move to australia. Off course the gov have to say there will be more than enough. BTO is the stepping stone for young people aspire to own a PC. In this way, HDB resale will always be strong.
I am not too sure that "HDB resale will always be strong." Particularly in relation to the aging HDB stock.
I have explored the HDB scenario in this thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=15272
Cheers!
Brudder mcm... Kum Sia.
Interesting hor. 80/20 rule again....
So out of 100% of private - less than 20% have 2 or more. We also know many hdb dwellers also rent out their condo.
So in times of trouble. 80% are home stay.
So 20% of rental from total of 20% (private occupy 20% of total market) means 4% of total market is private rental. I did not calculate hdb rental hor.
Thanks mcm bro
Is 4% reasonable? thanks!
Is 4% reasonable? thanks!
Estimate 4% of entire household have 2nd private property as an investment.
This does not include those private who have hdb rented out. This is another exercise which I am too lazy.
Many thanks to mcm bro
Secretariat
22-07-13, 14:24
Rental yield by % term may have dropped but your capital appreciation would hae gone up by 50%, one fold or more. Tenants are helping you to pay for your dream homes with good leverage on OPM (banks). Imagine the lost if you would have put your money in the bank 10 years ago instead of in a property that gives both capital appreciation and net passive income. Note: 10 years ago is when SARs hit Singapore. Too bad if you sold off during lemon times. Enbloc even better. :D
In DC's case, the rental yield would be calculated based on the price the property was transacted. Not based on today's paper price la.
I wouldn't be surprised that it beats the yield of newly TOPed new launches today.
Cheers!
In DC's case, the rental yield would be calculated based on the price the property was transacted. Not based on today's paper price la.
I wouldn't be surprised that it beats the yield of newly TOPed new launches today.
Cheers!
Asset value of your investment will always need to be adjusted accordingly to reflect the true yield instead of using original purchase price. And more importantly also give us a consistency of what we are discussing.
You are right. I am getting about rental yield of 3.3% based on today's price.
In DC's case, the rental yield would be calculated based on the price the property was transacted. Not based on today's paper price la.
I wouldn't be surprised that it beats the yield of newly TOPed new launches today.
Cheers!
Secretariat
22-07-13, 14:45
Asset value of your investment will always need to be adjusted accordingly to reflect the true yield instead of using original purchase price. And more importantly also give us a consistency of what we are discussing.
Good point.
So, all LLs here use the mark-to-market approach?
Cheers!
I am not too sure that "HDB resale will always be strong." Particularly in relation to the aging HDB stock.
I have explored the HDB scenario in this thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=15272
Cheers!
There is no way that the gov will throw the people to the street even when the HDB tenure is expire. Gov will always provide a replacement.
Good point.
So, all LLs here use the mark-to-market approach?
Cheers!
Bro, it has to be based on mark-to-market....
So if you bot say 1 mil and today worth 2 mil.... You can sell @ 2 mil and your 2 mil will chase certain yields....
Assumption (fully paid) hahahaha
That's why I say yield today sucks.... Cannot catch up with capital gains....
There is no way that the gov will throw the people to the street even when the HDB tenure is expire. Gov will always provide a replacement.
Bro Indomie, you damn champion....
To govt, they now can build more with en-bloc and sell higher price.....
They also rejuvenate the surrounding area and the place looks new.... Look at clementi (near Nan Hua Sec School) as an example....
80% of the people stay in hdb wor.... It is the plan to provide for general public....
Bro, you working for mnd or hdb???? Hahahahaha:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
Bro, it has to be based on mark-to-market....
So if you bot say 1 mil and today worth 2 mil.... You can sell @ 2 mil and your 2 mil will chase certain yields....
Assumption (fully paid) hahahaha
That's why I say yield today sucks.... Cannot catch up with capital gains....
Chestnut
me getting my sum wrong
that's why continue to remain a poor man :(
did not "Mark to market" for rental
Thanks Bro
Bro Indomie, you damn champion....
To govt, they now can build more with en-bloc and sell higher price.....
They also rejuvenate the surrounding area and the place looks new.... Look at clementi (near Nan Hua Sec School) as an example....
80% of the people stay in hdb wor.... It is the plan to provide for general public....
Bro, you working for mnd or hdb???? Hahahahaha:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
50 years old condo vs 50 years old HDB. Which one u choose? For upgrade and upkeep, u can't beat HDB. For condo, once the tenure is expire, u are off to the street.
Chestnut
me getting my sum wrong
that's why continue to remain a poor man :(
did not "Mark to market" for rental
Thanks Bro
Bro Simi, a poor man has no ability to invest.... The fact that you can invest is already great !!!!!
What is important in my mind is a heart of gold.... Speaking the truth...
Cheers
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
bro nutnut
I did some tabulation from URA non landed stamped rental contracts period Jun 2012 to May 2013 (i chose one year as avg since contracts get made and renewed or terminated in no particular pattern trend).
7,717 (D1-5)
13,050 (D6-10)
12,267 (D11-15)
6,282 (D16-20)
5,890 (D21-26)
448 (D27-28)
=45,654 in total
out of estimate 71644 apt and 137602 condo
= 209246 in total (ref singstat as of jun 2013)
total % leased is 21.8 on avg per annum basis
Ok im outta this thread liao as its started turning into the other threads pattern...
Good info, but the number doesn't include those with more than 1-year rental and was not renewed within Jun 2012 to May 2013? So total % leased should be higher than 21.8%?
50 years old condo vs 50 years old HDB. Which one u choose? For upgrade and upkeep, u can't beat HDB. For condo, once the tenure is expire, u are off to the street.
Brudder, during my time, when I bot my anchorage... for me to stay in condo, I need to sell my HDB.... See peh sian leh....
I will own a hdb anytime if I can... Why???
When time is up, govt will definitely enbloc and give me a new flat... (but that may pose a problem... as I need to dispose off my hdb - i believe it is the rule...)
Bro, that's why I still love freehold.... for keepsake.... someone will come a long to enbloc 1 day....
That does not mean I dont have 99 year units hor... I have 3 of them... Why??? Rental yield is a lot better than freehold hor... So I am very diversified in my props as well as other financial instruments...
Keep an open mind and watch for paradigm shifts....
Different strokes for different people....
I better keep my mouth shut... Revealing too much liao... Hahahahaha
But for Indomie, no problem lar bro....
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
Good info, but the number doesn't include those with more than 1-year rental and was not renewed within Jun 2012 to May 2013? So total % leased should be higher than 21.8%?
You so smart..... So some 2 yrs, some 1 yr... so take 30% to 35% lor....
Now compare this with the number of immigrants???? If someone has stats of those foreign pmets coming in... They can interpolate to see the supply and demand. Hahahahahaha
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
Speaking of interest rate and property price, there is no strong link, that is, property can go up and down no matter whether interest rate is moving up or down, check this graph out.
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/market-trends/singapore-property-price-index-and-3-month-sibor/
Secretariat
22-07-13, 15:31
Bro Indomie, you damn champion....
To govt, they now can build more with en-bloc and sell higher price.....
They also rejuvenate the surrounding area and the place looks new.... Look at clementi (near Nan Hua Sec School) as an example....
80% of the people stay in hdb wor.... It is the plan to provide for general public....
Bro, you working for mnd or hdb???? Hahahahaha:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
Haha, enbloc and buy at higher price? OK.
So, you believe that HDB at today's price is still a buy?
Cheers!
Bro Simi, a poor man has no ability to invest.... The fact that you can invest is already great !!!!!
What is important in my mind is a heart of gold.... Speaking the truth...
Cheers
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
He is a good tenant and when he wanted to extend his lease for another 2 years with a 0.05% increased, I gave it to him
Somehow felt good(mixed feelings) as have heard stories of irresponsible tenants
Thanks and Cheers
Haha, enbloc and buy at higher price? OK.
So, you believe that HDB at today's price is still a buy?
Cheers!
Brudder, are you asking me from which point :
1. first time home owner?
2. if have condo, and allowed to buy hdb?
3. any other situation????
Speaking of interest rate and property price, there is no strong link, that is, property can go up and down no matter whether interest rate is moving up or down, check this graph out.
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/market-trends/singapore-property-price-index-and-3-month-sibor/
Brudder, there is a strong link in prices dropping because of recession and prices rising because economy good....
So your answer is correct.... But many fail to see it... So i quite blur leh....:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:
He is a good tenant and when he wanted to extend his lease for another 2 years with a 0.05% increased, I gave it to him
Somehow felt good(mixed feelings) as have heard stories of irresponsible tenants
Thanks and Cheers
Bro Simi.... Not everything is about money.... If the tenant gives you comfort to sleep at nite.... It is worth every cent (lost).......
Do what you deem is happy and heck care what others think... After all it is your condo, your money and you can do whatever which way you want, rite????:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
Secretariat
22-07-13, 15:38
Brudder, are you asking me from which point :
1. first time home owner?
2. if have condo, and allowed to buy hdb?
3. any other situation????
Well, I thought that the context is whoever that is able or allow to buy a resale HDB today?
Cheers!
Me think me answer too many question until become target.... so me going into hibernation mode liao....
Kidding lar.... I need to work.... Will join you guys when I am free, ok....
:47::47::47::47::47::47::47:
Well, I thought that the context is whoever that is able or allow to buy a resale HDB today?
Cheers!
The answer is yes from an ROI standpoint.... look at the rental rate and determine how long you need to rent before the house is fully paid... Hahahaha :cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
But if you see it from another angle, you may get another result... Different angle, different results....
So it is great to be an officer and serve additional 9 months in OCS or be a corporal and serve 3-4 additional months... No 1 straight answer rite....
Is it good to be a manager or a staff???? Can you take the stress??? No straight answer rite???? To each his own....:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
This discussion is turning into an eye-opener! Learnt a lot from the unselfish sharing!
My wife and myself... We were not "investors".
We started off in 96 with a hdb flat. Bought a condo in 2003 for our child to enjoy facilities.
Bought into the US stock market in 2007/08 with our 200k saving on the advice of a close friend. Bought a semi-d late 09 with part of the profit from the market. Sold the semi-d early '13...
Long story short. We are back to where we were in 2007 with a hdb and a condo... but with "free shares" in US market which have ballooned and a bank account which we have never dreamt possible.
We are just lucky and we know we are blessed but seriously We are quite clueless as what we should do next to preserve our "wealth" (peanuts maybe to all the masters and gurus here).
Sigh. Got money stress no money also stress!
This discussion is turning into an eye-opener! Learnt a lot from the unselfish sharing!
My wife and myself... We were not "investors".
We started off in 96 with a hdb flat. Bought a condo in 2003 for our child to enjoy facilities.
Bought into the US stock market in 2007/08 with our 200k saving on the advice of a close friend. Bought a semi-d late 09 with part of the profit from the market. Sold the semi-d early '13...
Long story short. We are back to where we were in 2007 with a hdb and a condo... but with "free shares" in US market which have ballooned and a bank account which we have never dreamt possible.
We are just lucky and we know we are blessed but seriously We are quite clueless as what we should do next to preserve our "wealth" (peanuts maybe to all the masters and gurus here).
Sigh. Got money stress no money also stress!
Singaporeans are seriously cash rich and assets rich.
Singaporeans are seriously cash rich and assets rich.
Rich? Seriously, bro! What I have read from all the sharing... Got lots of catchup to do before I can talk about retirement... Don't have a portfolio that can generate that kind of income. Been to a lot of new launches including jgateway... Just couldn't pull the trigger :( already early forties, time not on my side. But was really grateful for that ONE cycle that I ride on.
Rich? Seriously, bro! What I have read from all the sharing... Got lots of catchup to do before I can talk about retirement... Don't have a portfolio that can generate that kind of income. Been to a lot of new launches including jgateway... Just couldn't pull the trigger :( already early forties, time not on my side. But was really grateful for that ONE cycle that I ride on.
Average is 2 cycles per person. Unless you started off very young like me ( 22 years old with family inheritance in 1990) :)
Rich? Seriously, bro! What I have read from all the sharing... Got lots of catchup to do before I can talk about retirement... Don't have a portfolio that can generate that kind of income. Been to a lot of new launches including jgateway... Just couldn't pull the trigger :( already early forties, time not on my side. But was really grateful for that ONE cycle that I ride on.
forget about property for now, ABSD + stamp duty is around 13%. Since you already have 2 property + decent cash saving, my suggestion is to enjoy your stress free life, and wait for your kids to grow up. When their time comes, you can then pull the trigger.
Alternatively, if you are not into stocks bonds etc, you could put money back into CPF to make 2.5% interest.
for me, I feel that what a property investor shouldn't do in today's market condition is not to be intimidated by a little obstacles (eg CMs :D) which makes u lose sight of the whole picture.
no doubt tat it is no longer accelerating tat steep as compared to in the past, it is nevertheless something more secured which one can do with the excess cash on hand and definitely appreciating in value in the long run without the associated high risk as compared to other instruments.
forget about property for now, ABSD + stamp duty is around 13%. Since you already have 2 property + decent cash saving, my suggestion is to enjoy your stress free life, and wait for your kids to grow up. When their time comes, you can then pull the trigger.
Alternatively, if you are not into stocks bonds etc, you could put money back into CPF to make 2.5% interest.
That is a sound advice. Not spectacular advice, but good and sound :)
Check this out and give your views : hahahahahahaha
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/press_releases/advgdp2q2013.pdf
Check this out and give your views : hahahahahahaha
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/press_releases/advgdp2q2013.pdf
slow down the supply of housing is all bull shit la, y would the govt wanna discontinue/reduce an activity tat is the main contributory to sg economic growth?
so the oni way is to increase the population so tat supply is not > demand lor ...
for me, I feel that what a property investor shouldn't do in today's market condition is not to be intimidated by a little obstacles (eg CMs :D) which makes u lose sight of the whole picture.
no doubt tat it is no longer accelerating tat steep as compared to in the past, it is nevertheless something more secured which one can do with the excess cash on hand and definitely appreciating in value in the long run without the associated high risk as compared to other instruments.
All property investors should hedge against any possible Blackswan event. Some brothers here argued that interest rates have no relation to property prices. I tell them " DON'T TALK CORK SING SONG LA ! "
They whack you with only 2 spikes of more than 5% increment ( Depending on whether after the first whack , you died already or not ) on 2 seperate but close apart occasions to make you missed one payment, thereafter give you another rubba if you know what I mean. That is The BlackSwan I mean...and that is why on the chart YOU WILL SEE NOTHING !
I AM THE ILLUMINATED. THE DARK ONE. THE MASTER. THE LION KING.
Good Luck.
Your Handsome Uncle,
LEO CHENG
Average is 2 cycles per person. Unless you started off very young like me ( 22 years old with family inheritance in 1990) :)
BJ21Trader sifu
I was lucky too
young and impulsive anyhow hoot a Vista Park unit in 1993 and sold it a year later making a handsome profits :D
for me, I feel that what a property investor shouldn't do in today's market condition is not to be intimidated by a little obstacles (eg CMs :D) which makes u lose sight of the whole picture.
no doubt tat it is no longer accelerating tat steep as compared to in the past, it is nevertheless something more secured which one can do with the excess cash on hand and definitely appreciating in value in the long run without the associated high risk as compared to other instruments.
bro, you need to start showing some respect for God of Prosperity Tharman. This guy is not stupid and the current cooling measure is not "little obstacle" either.
For investor who already own 2 or more properties, to buy another $1m apartment you need to have at least $800K of saving + CPF before you could flirt with the idea.
$600K down payment + $124.6K ( ABSD + Stamp duty)
And what can you buy for $1m today?
BJ21Trader sifu
I was lucky too
young and impulsive anyhow hoot a Vista Park unit in 1993 and sold it a year later making a handsome profits :D
You must be either good hearted or handsome like me to be so lucky lor....brother Simi..hehehehehhe
:) :) :)
All property investors should hedge against any possible Blackswan event. Some brothers here argued that interest rates have no relation to property prices. I tell them " DON'T TALK CORK SING SONG LA ! "
They whack you with only 2 spikes of more than 5% increment on 2 single occasion to make you missed one payment, thereafter give you another whack if you know what I mean. That is The BlackSwan I mean...and that is why on the chart YOU WILL SEE NOTHING !
Good Luck.
Your Handsome Uncle,
Lion King.
dearest self proclaimed handsome uncle :p
I feel tat as long as one can afford it, he can continue buying with a long term view ...
continue to invest/be confident in the ppty mkt doesn't mean to ignore the possibility interest rates spikes. wat is more impt is to make provisions & be financially prepared for such tragedy. liddat one will be able to ride the storm safely.
Lion King.... I beg to differ.... If a multiple property investor does not keep cash, to me this individual "SEOW" !!!!!
Even for stocks, you need to set aside cash in case of rights issue....
If the individual with multiple property does not set aside "incidental" amounts, me think, this person better not play leh.....
I think if you do a poll here, many will tell you they have at least 6 month or more of savings in the event they lose their job !!!!!!
Hahahahahaha
All property investors should hedge against any possible Blackswan event. Some brothers here argued that interest rates have no relation to property prices. I tell them " DON'T TALK CORK SING SONG LA ! "
They whack you with only 2 spikes of more than 5% ( Depending on whether after the first whack , you died already or not ) increment on 2 single occasion to make you missed one payment, thereafter give you another whack if you know what I mean. That is The BlackSwan I mean...and that is why on the chart YOU WILL SEE NOTHING !
I AM THE ILLUMINATED. THE DARK ONE. THE MASTER. THE LION KING.
Good Luck.
Your Handsome Uncle,
LEO CHENG
I observe lion has changed his tone recently
But again Lion King.... Your advise on the interest rate is a good advice for many young, impulsive buyers... Kudos....
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
I observe lion has changed his tone recently
This guy not simple one.... Very flexible.... Very contrarian... Steady one....
bro, you need to start showing some respect for God of Prosperity Tharman. This guy is not stupid and the current cooling measure is not "little obstacle" either.
For investor who already own 2 or more properties, to buy another $1m apartment you need to have at least $800K of saving + CPF before you could flirt with the idea.
$600K down payment + $124.6K ( ABSD + Stamp duty)
And what can you buy for $1m today?
precisely of wat u mentioned above, mm will be a gem in the future :D
But again Lion King.... Your advise on the interest rate is a good advice for many young, impulsive buyers... Kudos....
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
The advice is to keep some cash buffer, which all should adhere to. But as for the property price's link with interest rate, the chart shows that the link is very weak. The chart link is repeated here:
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/market-trends/singapore-property-price-index-and-3-month-sibor/
Chart is not produced by me, I just copy the link only, so no subjective view here.
This guy not simple one.... Very flexible.... Very contrarian... Steady one....
Very complicated, sometimes act blur, sometimes act smart. Sometimes may not be saying what he wanted to say.
The advice is to keep some cash buffer, which all should adhere to. But as for the property price's link with interest rate, the chart shows that the link is very weak. The chart link is repeated here:
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/market-trends/singapore-property-price-index-and-3-month-sibor/
Chart is not produced by me, I just copy the link only, so no subjective view here.
the issue here is, if say a person hv 100k-200k, perhaps he shd juz keep it as a buffer rather den try to be funny :D but wat if a person hv 2 or more ppty alrdy n hv say 0.5mil-1mil cash? he cant be keeping tat much buffer rite?
The advice is to keep some cash buffer, which all should adhere to. But as for the property price's link with interest rate, the chart shows that the link is very weak. The chart link is repeated here:
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/market-trends/singapore-property-price-index-and-3-month-sibor/
Chart is not produced by me, I just copy the link only, so no subjective view here.
Good brother economist, you are correct to say the link is weak. I am saying it is the interest rate spikes, NOTE I repeat again: SPIKE that killed the property investor. There is no affordability issue here, it is an issue of Leverage.
TAKE Note what Ah Khaw said: "They assume two things. Property prices will keep going (up). Two, interest rates will keep on remaining low. Both are wrong and therefore one day, both will collapse on them. So, if you are over-committed, let's say you can only afford a 3-room flat, (but) you decide to buy five room flat. Yes, based on today's interest rates you can afford a five-room flat. But, when interest rates go up as it will, you will no longer be able to afford a five-room flat and what will happen, your bank will start calling you up to please top up or sell your flat and that's when trouble starts."
Here is Ah Khaw's link if u know what I mean:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShGdgykCDiI
The advice is to keep some cash buffer, which all should adhere to. But as for the property price's link with interest rate, the chart shows that the link is very weak. The chart link is repeated here:
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/market-trends/singapore-property-price-index-and-3-month-sibor/
Chart is not produced by me, I just copy the link only, so no subjective view here.
Brudder, view this lar
Look at unemployment rate and PPI - notice the trending (unemployment peaks with recession which results in prices dropping)
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/market-trends/singapore-property-price-index-and-unemployment-rate/
The below shows you the major events that caused the prices to drop and also rise.
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-1975-to-1986/
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-1986-to-1998/
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-1999-to-2004/
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-2004-to-2009/
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-2009-to-Present/
There is more to just recession hor.... Now adays there are many interlinking..... Why???? The world is getting smaller with the net and news flows super FAST.... Not like last time... So now, you need to be on your toes. Hahahaha
So do please do the following :
:47::47::47::47::47::47::47::47::47::47::47::47::47:
Brudder, view this lar
Look at unemployment rate and PPI - notice the trending (unemployment peaks with recession which results in prices dropping)
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/market-trends/singapore-property-price-index-and-unemployment-rate/
The below shows you the major events that caused the prices to drop and also rise.
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-1975-to-1986/
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-1986-to-1998/
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-1999-to-2004/
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-2004-to-2009/
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/singapore-property-cycle-2009-to-Present/
read my previous posts, good brother...AGAIN.
All property investors should hedge against any possible Blackswan event. Some brothers here argued that interest rates have no relation to property prices. I tell them " DON'T TALK CORK SING SONG LA ! "
They whack you with only 2 spikes of more than 5% increment ( Depending on whether after the first whack , you died already or not ) on 2 seperate but close apart occasions to make you missed one payment, thereafter give you another rubba if you know what I mean. That is The BlackSwan I mean...and that is why on the chart YOU WILL SEE NOTHING !
I AM THE ILLUMINATED. THE DARK ONE. THE MASTER. THE LION KING.
Good Luck.
Your Handsome Uncle,
LEO CHENG
Major Events= Blackswan, GET IT ?
Supply and demand is the fundamental for property price;
1. Long term demand is affected by economy, that's why unemployment rate has better link with property price; and immigration policy is also key.
2. Short term demand and supply is much affected by sentiment, that is why macro event and financial crisis will hit very hard, and that is why QE's talk can boost market.
3. Long term supply is up to the government, govt is aware of the risk, and is slowing down 2H land supply, by shifting more parcels to reserved list.
Lion King is talking about a different thing here, that is, one should keep some cash buffer to guard against sudden spikes of interest rate.
Supply and demand is the fundamental for property price;
1. Long term demand is affected by economy, that's why unemployment rate has better link with property price;
2. Short term demand and supply is much affected by sentiment, that is why macro event and financial crisis will hit very hard, and that is why QE's talk can boost market.
3. Long term supply is up to the government, govt is aware of the risk, and is slowing down 2H land supply, by shifting more parcels to reserved list.
Here is Ah Khaw's link if u need to get the idea once more:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShGdgykCDiI
Lion King is talking about a different thing here, that is, one should keep some cash buffer to guard against sudden spikes of interest rate.
Now you understand completely what I am saying. So you are a REAL economist after all...
WOAHAAHHHEHHEHEHEHEHEH
read my previous posts, good brother...AGAIN.
Brudder.... Thats why they come out with 50% downpayment leh....
They scared of the over leverage man on the street.... I agree with you wat... But with this 40-50% down, what is the impact????
Refer to unemployment inference to PPI leh....
I am not saying no one will be hit with the interest rate hike.... The question is how many and what is the impact brudder lion.....
So the govt smart.... They dont want another "sub prime" kind of situation in Singapore, so what they do.
1. Remove IAS
2. Remove defferred payement
3. Increase to 10% down
4. Increase to 20% down
5. Increase to 40% down
6. Increase to 50% down.
7. CMs, CMs, CMs....
8. Only strong players can play.....
Hahahahahahaha
If dont have all this CMs, I agree there will be many weak players and my leg will jitter leh..... By now, without CMs, the props will be on turbo charged and I already let go a few....
Now you know why I downsized... Hahaha and not exit... Hahahahaha
But we must always be prepared for Black Swan.... How to prepare??? CASH $$$$$$$$$$.... Thats how....
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
When Black Swan happens, and if it does happen, you can cherry pick wat....
Lion King is talking about a different thing here, that is, one should keep some cash buffer to guard against sudden spikes of interest rate.
You read a chart using mathemathical formula and economic theories.
I SEE THE CHART AS AKIN TO A HUMAN BEING or THE BEAST.
Lion King is talking about a different thing here, that is, one should keep some cash buffer to guard against sudden spikes of interest rate.
Brudder, there was a thread to discuss how much buffer one should keep wat.....
If the individual dont keep cash, what can I say?????:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:
You can do a poll on how many here dont keep cash?????
Wa lau... If lose job, surely die without cash leh.... So no brainer rite....
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
Brudder.... Thats why they come out with 50% downpayment leh....
They scared of the over leverage man on the street.... I agree with you wat... But with this 40-50% down, what is the impact????
Refer to unemployment inference to PPI leh....
I am not saying no one will be hit with the interest rate hike.... The question is how many and what is the impact brudder lion.....
So the govt smart.... They dont want another "sub prime" kind of situation in Singapore, so what they do.
1. Remove IAS
2. Remove defferred payement
3. Increase to 10% down
4. Increase to 20% down
5. Increase to 40% down
6. Increase to 50% down.
7. CMs, CMs, CMs....
8. Only strong players can play.....
Hahahahahahaha
If dont have all this CMs, I agree there will be many weak players and my leg will jitter leh..... By now, without CMs, the props will be on turbo charged and I already let go a few....
Now you know why I downsized... Hahaha and not exit... Hahahahaha
But we must always be prepared for Black Swan.... How to prepare??? CASH $$$$$$$$$$.... Thats how....
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
When Black Swan happens, and if it does happen, you can cherry pick wat....
FINALLY! you get what I meant.
SIGH YO...brother chestnut arh..I thought your THIRD EYE OPENED long away liao leh ? looks like your brainy is SLOWER than brother economist leh
Brudder Lion King, you are rite to remind everyone to keep cash lar....
I quite cuckoo.... I assume everyone keep cash... Paiseh...
Kudos....
:):)
Clap, clap....
Brudder, there was a thread to discuss how much buffer one should keep wat.....
If the individual dont keep cash, what can I say?????:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:
You can do a poll on how many here dont keep cash?????
Wa lau... If lose job, surely die without cash leh.... So no brainer rite....
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
You got to be absolutely sure your buffer is ENOUGH, because that is a function of any interest hikes or spikes.( 2 different things here. Note Ah Khaw said HIKES while I say SPIKES.)
GOOD LUCK.
FINALLY! you get what I meant.
SIGH YO...brother chestnut arh..I thought your THIRD EYE OPENED long away liao leh ? looks like your brainy is SLOWER than brother economist leh
Brudder, I already told you I here to TCSS and I am not so smart leh.... You look me too up.... Hahahahaha
I quite blur one leh.... Dont listen to me wholesale hor... I make many mistake one leh.... Hahahahahahaha
FINALLY! you get what I meant.
SIGH YO...brother chestnut arh..I thought your THIRD EYE OPENED long away liao leh ? looks like your brainy is SLOWER than brother economist leh
Chestnut knew it all along, from his messages all along.
SG government's policy is the harshest among Asia cities, that's how it kept the price in check, so far no big bubble yet.
However, there is a bit of inconsistency in Lion King's recent messages.
Brudder Lion King, you are rite to remind everyone to keep cash lar....
I quite cuckoo.... I assume everyone keep cash... Paiseh...
Kudos....
:):)
Clap, clap....
I kept cash also, BUT NOT ENOUGH. Now you know why I unloaded 2 units liaobo? I was OVERLEVERAGED la ...darn should have use the dunno what spreadshit a brother here recommended.
You got to be absolutely sure your buffer is ENOUGH, because that is a function of any interest hikes or spikes.( 2 different things here. Note Ah Khaw said HIKES while I say SPIKES.)
GOOD LUCK.
Brudder, go to this website and simulate the amount when interest rate go up.... Hahahahahaha
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/mortgage_calc_monthly
Then u see the damage when interest spike 5%. Hahahahahhaha
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
I kept cash also, BUT NOT ENOUGH. Now you know why I unloaded 2 units liaobo? I was OVERLEVERAGED la ...darn should have use the dunno what spreadshit a brother here recommended.
Brudder, how can you be overleverage?????
I tell u a secret lar.... When interest rate spike.... Sell your Lambo and cash out lar.... Dont be so stubborn... It is survival mode.... You must learn to eat humble pie hor...
Paiseh.... Talking rubbish again....
But u did the rite thing if you feel you are overleveraged !!!!!!
Kudos and cheers
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
Brudder, how can you be overleverage?????
I tell u a secret lar.... When interest rate spike.... Sell your Lambo and cash out lar.... Dont be so stubborn... It is survival mode.... You must learn to eat humble pie hor...
Paiseh.... Talking rubbish again....
But u did the rite thing if you feel you are overleveraged !!!!!!
Kudos and cheers
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
Very complicated, sometimes act blur, sometimes act smart.
Brudder, go to this website and simulate the amount when interest rate go up.... Hahahahahaha
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/mortgage_calc_monthly
Then u see the damage when interest spike 5%. Hahahahahhaha
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
Thanks good brother. Luckily I unloaded. I will miss payments when it is at 5%. HENG ARHHHHHHHHHHH!
Chestnut knew it all along, from his messages all along.
SG government's policy is the harshest among Asia cities, that's how it kept the price in check, so far no big bubble yet.
However, there is a bit of inconsistency in Lion King's recent messages.
Brudder economist.... Most of the time I get it wrong leh..... Maybe out of 1,000 times, I will get it correct once leh.... Hahahahahahaha
Thanks for your look me up.... Paiseh... but please forgive my TCSS here.... Quite free now... Hahahahaha
:47::47::47::47::47:
Here is Ah Khaw's link if u need to get the idea once more:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShGdgykCDiI
This one should help ease any worries for HDB.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/video/ramped-up-supply-of-hdb/696732.html
Thanks good brother. Luckily I unloaded. I will miss payments when it is at 5%. HENG ARHHHHHHHHHHH!
Caught red-handed, a typical example of acting blur, you mean a seasoned investor like you did not know how to simulate interest rate of 5%?
Secretariat
22-07-13, 18:27
Rich? Seriously, bro! What I have read from all the sharing... Got lots of catchup to do before I can talk about retirement... Don't have a portfolio that can generate that kind of income. Been to a lot of new launches including jgateway... Just couldn't pull the trigger :( already early forties, time not on my side. But was really grateful for that ONE cycle that I ride on.
My 2-cents thought:
- Stop looking at the money; it is just some number with more zeroes behind it. Put it into an account that you don't see it every so often. In other words, don't bother about it for a while, don't let it change you.
- Use some of it to pamper yourself a bit; refurbish the house, a new car, and thats about it. Take a long holiday, stay away from the markets for 6 month to avoid getting into the "Greed" mode.
- Be thankful of the benefactor; and your family who all make the lucky star appear in your life.
Enjoy!
Brudder, how can you be overleverage?????
I tell u a secret lar.... When interest rate spike.... Sell your Lambo and cash out lar.... Dont be so stubborn... It is survival mode.... You must learn to eat humble pie hor...
Paiseh.... Talking rubbish again....
But u did the rite thing if you feel you are overleveraged !!!!!!
Kudos and cheers
:cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3::cheers3:
WAHLAUEH... YOU DUNNO CHINESE SAYING " CAN LOSE TO ANYONE ANYTHING BUT NEVER LOSE YOUR FACE , IF LOSE FACE IS LANJIAO FACE! "
SIGH YO !!!!
Very complicated, sometimes act blur, sometimes act smart.
Brudder, one thing you must learn in this forum....
1. We are all here to TCSS...
2. Read the things that make sense and throw irrelevant stuff out....
3. This is a forum and every one has no identity....
4. Enjoy and relax
5. Dont take things so seriously, if not you will faint
6. Enjoy, enjoy and enjoy....
7. Lastly, remember, money, property is not everything.... Sleeping peacefully at nite is important... So play within your comfort zone.
8. And the most important thing... Please show caring for your brudders and sisters.... Life is SHORT.
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Caught red-handed, a typical example of acting blur, you mean a seasoned investor like you did not know how to simulate interest rate of 5%?
WAHLAUEH... you another SHARP (Alert ) one har !
Yes lah, I simulated before and use the spreadSHIT thingy.., but last year nobody talking about rate hikes mah..So I was actually the 5% that took the risk as reported in the media now lor...But now that 5% is only 4.99999% overleveragers. After so many persons of authority come out and say, I must obediently unload lor....
WOAHAHHHEHEHEHHEHEHEHEH
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