View Full Version : Best and Worst Performing District?
squarefoot.com.sg just release some new data on projects which are more than 20% off historical high. A very good indication of which district has got the strong demand and which is not.
If your district doesnt appear, that means you should be riding on the right wave.
https://www.squarefoot.com.sg/price-alert/off-high
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1150694_590951100957265_816083131_o.png
thomastansb
14-08-13, 23:00
Not really. Just take the analysis with a pinch of salt. Don't read too much into it.
For example, take a look at this project called Villa Marina. Prices hover around 800 to 1000 psf at peak and 300 to 500 psf at crisis.
But there is ONE transaction at 1680 psf and suddenly, this project is listed as trading 20% off historical high when there is only ONE transaction. So it is not accurate IMO.
squarefoot.com.sg just release some new data on projects which are more than 20% off historical high. A very good indication of which district has got the strong demand and which is not.
If your district doesnt appear, that means you should be riding on the right wave.
https://www.squarefoot.com.sg/price-alert/off-high
proud owner
14-08-13, 23:03
I agree
but people look at it differently
all focusing on stupid psf for a 400 sqft unit but ignoring the psf of a NORMAL size say 1300 sqft unit in the same project ...
Not really. Just take the analysis with a pinch of salt. Don't read too much into it.
For example, take a look at this project called Villa Marina. Prices hover around 800 to 1000 psf at peak and 300 to 500 psf at crisis.
But there is ONE transaction at 1680 psf and suddenly, this project is listed as trading 20% off historical high when there is only ONE transaction. So it is not accurate IMO.
My Clift is in the list but I am not at all worried.
The historical high at 3000psf are those loft units kept by FEO.
Normal unit transaction are between $2300 to $2400psf.
Historical low is <$1100psf
Rental more than $8psf, no sweat...
Meaningless analysis. Look at Alexis :banghead:
Lets see how many agents use this
If property investment is as easy as just picking a district, everybody on this forum are already millionaires from day 1.
Not really. Just take the analysis with a pinch of salt. Don't read too much into it.
For example, take a look at this project called Villa Marina. Prices hover around 800 to 1000 psf at peak and 300 to 500 psf at crisis.
But there is ONE transaction at 1680 psf and suddenly, this project is listed as trading 20% off historical high when there is only ONE transaction. So it is not accurate IMO.
Yet another Useless chart :D
If property investment is as easy as just picking a district, everybody on this forum are already millionaires from day 1.
As the saying goes, every dogs has its day, so its a matter of buying into the right district at the right time. And more importantly buying into something that has got strong fundamental instead of fantasy.
agree with the earlier views. they should list by bedroom type. 20% off highs within 2 bedrooms, within 3 bedrooms. no point comparing 1 bedroom high against the recent average transactions which don't even include one bedders.
agree with the earlier views. they should list by bedroom type. 20% off highs within 2 bedrooms, within 3 bedrooms. no point comparing 1 bedroom high against the recent average transactions which don't even include one bedders.
The 20% should be able to offset the difference between 1 2 or 3 bedders, and they are also not comparing the highest vs, the lowest, but average out.
the skew on the record high created by the small units is too great. on new launches, the difference between 1 bedder and the average selling price is already about 15%.
The 20% should be able to offset the difference between 1 2 or 3 bedders, and they are also not comparing the highest vs, the lowest, but average out.
You don't even know your chart again..:doh:
They are using the historical highest psf of a single unit vs last 6-mths average
Below was the highest psf obtained by one single unit for The Cliff & The Alexis of 3,085psf in Sep 2012 & Dec 2013 respectively
URA data:
THE CLIFT MCCALLUM STREET Apartment CCR 99 yrs lease commencing from 2004 $3,321,200 1,076sf Strata 36 to 40 $3,085psf Sep-12
ALEXIS ALEXANDRA ROAD Apartment RCR Freehold $800,000 398 Strata 01 to 05 $2,009psf Dec-12
Source from Square ft:
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1150694_590951100957265_816083131_o.png
the skew on the record high created by the small units is too great. on new launches, the difference between 1 bedder and the average selling price is already about 15%.
Price disparity is the same for all district and project. The more important question is when the record prices was recorded and why gap remains above 20% since then.
thomastansb
15-08-13, 11:06
I have SFR account as well.
The chart is totally misleading. For example:
Project A has 400 units. All units that are sold are transacted around 800 to 1000psf for the past 6 months. In fact, project A has NEVER had any transaction more than $1,050 psf in its entire history.
However, in 1997 peak (16 years ago), one rich idiot come and buy ONE SINGLE UNIT for $1680 psf.
So suddenly, project A is selling 40% lower than peak. That is totally flawed.
I will prefer SFR to take like average of top 10 transactions vs last 6 months transactions to have any meaningful comparison. But they are a new company so they will learn. And at least, they try to give statistics and reports even though it wasn't a well and thoroughly thought one.
The 20% should be able to offset the difference between 1 2 or 3 bedders, and they are also not comparing the highest vs, the lowest, but average out.
I have SFR account as well.
The chart is totally misleading. For example:
Project A has 400 units. All units that are sold are transacted around 800 to 1000psf for the past 6 months. In fact, project A has NEVER had any transaction more than $1,050 psf in its entire history.
However, in 1997 peak (16 years ago), one rich idiot come and buy ONE SINGLE UNIT for $1680 psf.
So suddenly, project A is selling 40% lower than peak. That is totally flawed.
I will prefer SFR to take like average of top 10 transactions vs last 6 months transactions to have any meaningful comparison. But they are a new company so they will learn. And at least, they try to give statistics and reports even though it wasn't a well and thoroughly thought one.
What you are saying are hypothetical scenarios which did happen during the boom time in 2010/2011. And thats not to say that this comparison is meaningless because it only goes to show which are the speculative projects and which are the projects which has got good fundamentals/
thomastansb
15-08-13, 13:29
The project is Villa Marina. It is not a hypothetical scenario. It is a real project and SFR is telling us Villa Marina is transacting 20% below historical peak.
But as I have pointed out earlier, 20% below 1 transaction is flawed. You need to have an average of at least 10 transactions IMO. It is meaningless because you are taking the highest PSF in a project - even if there is only 1 transaction.
Also, I realise another flaw. Take the Sail for example. Stack 1 to 6 are premium bay view units. Those are transacting 2.5 to 3.5k psf. So if in the last 6 months, the transactions are mainly for stack 7 to 11 which are facing MBS, then the sail will be transacting 20% below peak. But in actual fact, they are NOT transacting 20% below peak. It is just that there are not bay view units being transacted.
For newbies, they will be taken for a ride by SFR.
What you are saying are hypothetical scenarios which did happen during the boom time in 2010/2011. And thats not to say that this comparison is meaningless because it only goes to show which are the speculative projects and which are the projects which has got good fundamentals/
The project is Villa Marina. It is not a hypothetical scenario. It is a real project and SFR is telling us Villa Marina is transacting 20% below historical peak.
But as I have pointed out earlier, 20% below 1 transaction is flawed. You need to have an average of at least 10 transactions IMO. It is meaningless because you are taking the highest PSF in a project - even if there is only 1 transaction.
Also, I realise another flaw. Take the Sail for example. Stack 1 to 6 are premium bay view units. Those are transacting 2.5 to 3.5k psf. So if in the last 6 months, the transactions are mainly for stack 7 to 11 which are facing MBS, then the sail will be transacting 20% below peak. But in actual fact, they are NOT transacting 20% below peak. It is just that there are not bay view units being transacted.
For newbies, they will be taken for a ride by SFR.
Any decent investors will know that the stupid chart is pure rubbish.
How can so many prime or near prime units be selling at $1,600-$1,999 when Jurong studio is selling at $1,7xx ?
DKSG
This chart really misleading.. The one who use this chart to tell his story is another no brainer :doh:
They are using the historical highest psf of a single unit vs last 6-mths average and telling you how many percentage has fallen..
Below was the historical high psf obtained by one single unit for The Cliff & The Alexis of 3,085psf & 2,009psf in Sep 2012 & Dec 2012 respectively
URA data:
THE CLIFT MCCALLUM STREET Apartment CCR 99 yrs lease commencing from 2004 $3,321,200 1,076sf Strata 36 to 40 $3,085psf Sep-12
ALEXIS ALEXANDRA ROAD Apartment RCR Freehold $800,000 398sf Strata 01 to 05 $2,009psf Dec-12
Source from Square ft:
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1150694_590951100957265_816083131_o.png
Any decent investors will know that the stupid chart is pure rubbish.
How can so many prime or near prime units be selling at $1,600-$1,999 when Jurong studio is selling at $1,7xx ?
DKSG
Don't you know the most basic rule of property?
"IMO, this is perhaps the most important of all, hence dont let people tell you all that nonsense about good and bad streets etc because in Singapore "bad" street will turn good, while "good" street will be forgotten."
I have googled this and found zero hits to support it. But apparently it is golden. :doh:
Basically what others have said. Need to take average of peak prices too and ensure unit mix is approx the same. Otherwise single MM unit transactions will distort. Only an idiot would read this at face value and accept it unquestioningly. Nice idea if they did something to remove this distortion.
Any decent investors will know that the stupid chart is pure rubbish.
How can so many prime or near prime units be selling at $1,600-$1,999 when Jurong studio is selling at $1,7xx ?
DKSG
real stupid show stupid chart. buy future price. :doh:
dig own grave
thomastansb
15-08-13, 14:56
Precisely. Like for MBR, $4368 psf. Well, if it is for a stack 1 or 10 high floor, it is possible. But recent transactions are not stack 1 or 10.
And MBR is NOT trading 20% below historical high unless the website takes an average of 10 units of stack 1 vs 10 units of stack 1. And also, have to take height into consideration. Don't tell me people will pay the same for 2nd floor and 58th floor. A 20% difference is common.
This chart really misleading.. The one who use this chart to tell his story is another no brainer :doh:
They are using the historical highest psf of a single unit vs last 6-mths average and telling you how many percentage has fallen..
Below was the historical high psf obtained by one single unit for The Cliff & The Alexis of 3,085psf & 2,009psf in Sep 2012 & Dec 2012 respectively
URA data:
THE CLIFT MCCALLUM STREET Apartment CCR 99 yrs lease commencing from 2004 $3,321,200 1,076sf Strata 36 to 40 $3,085psf Sep-12
ALEXIS ALEXANDRA ROAD Apartment RCR Freehold $800,000 398sf Strata 01 to 05 $2,009psf Dec-12
Source from Square ft:
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1150694_590951100957265_816083131_o.png
The project is Villa Marina. It is not a hypothetical scenario. It is a real project and SFR is telling us Villa Marina is transacting 20% below historical peak.
But as I have pointed out earlier, 20% below 1 transaction is flawed. You need to have an average of at least 10 transactions IMO. It is meaningless because you are taking the highest PSF in a project - even if there is only 1 transaction.
Also, I realise another flaw. Take the Sail for example. Stack 1 to 6 are premium bay view units. Those are transacting 2.5 to 3.5k psf. So if in the last 6 months, the transactions are mainly for stack 7 to 11 which are facing MBS, then the sail will be transacting 20% below peak. But in actual fact, they are NOT transacting 20% below peak. It is just that there are not bay view units being transacted.
For newbies, they will be taken for a ride by SFR.
Need to understand that in any scientific measurement, there bound to be a few data which are flawed however thats not to say that this table is totally meaningless.
As for the sail, its pretty obvious that the sail can no longer command the kind of premium it used to get because the place is very run down as it ages. And perhaps the reason why there isnt bay view transaction was because buyers no longer willing to pay premium for the bay views, hence no transaction. Actually there are many bay view unit for sale, just that no buyers.
Don't you know the most basic rule of property?
"IMO, this is perhaps the most important of all, hence dont let people tell you all that nonsense about good and bad streets etc because in Singapore "bad" street will turn good, while "good" street will be forgotten."
I have googled this and found zero hits to support it. But apparently it is golden. :doh:
Basically what others have said. Need to take average of peak prices too and ensure unit mix is approx the same. Otherwise single MM unit transactions will distort. Only an idiot would read this at face value and accept it unquestioningly. Nice idea if they did something to remove this distortion.
Since you would like to talk about bad and good street. perhaps you could please help reply to some of the below questions. (Dont act blur leh)
1) I am glad that you are reminding us that this is a forum about investing in property, which mean we should be focusing on property investment discussion instead of going around asking if you own J Gateway or if you could afford anything? Or even to the extent of discussion who is more senior in this forum.
2) Now you are saying you cant explain what is Best and Worst Street and giving excuses like it is a common knowledge that everyone talk about?
Sorry leh, I am have been in this forum for about a year, I have never heard about people talking about Best and Worst Street in Singapore.
Could you give some example of what is consider as the best and worst street, and how each compare to each other in terms of capital appreciation and rental yield (this is property investment discussion, refer to point (1))
3) So best street is River Valley, which mean buying even the lousiest house or apartment at RV is better than buying the best house in the worst street.
So lets take Waterford Residence for example, its located in River Valley area, and compare it with say The Centris in the far flang of Jurong. So make it easier for reader to see, I have created 2 charts here, so by look at the price moving for each chart, do you want to guess which chart belongs to the Best Street and which belongs to the Worst Street?
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/6638/fctr.jpg
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/4839/i8ou.jpg
4) And now, please take a good look at these photos which were taken in the 60s and 70s, so please tell us if these photo looks like they are best or worst street?
http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/2259/7pfz.jpg
http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3599/3685155362_bb7b243a68.jpg
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2296/2065335447_10da0eb19b.jpg
http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/6292/e4pn.jpg
Precisely. Like for MBR, $4368 psf. Well, if it is for a stack 1 or 10 high floor, it is possible. But recent transactions are not stack 1 or 10.
And MBR is NOT trading 20% below historical high unless the website takes an average of 10 units of stack 1 vs 10 units of stack 1. And also, have to take height into consideration. Don't tell me people will pay the same for 2nd floor and 58th floor. A 20% difference is common.
So are we better off reading charts from SRX or REALIS?
"So lets take Waterford Residence for example, its located in River Valley area, and compare it with say The Centris in the far flang of Jurong. So make it easier for reader to see, I have created 2 charts here, so by look at the price moving for each chart, do you want to guess which chart belongs to the Best Street and which belongs to the Worst Street? "
could this be read as the one at river valley is now undervalue?
thomastansb
16-08-13, 09:59
I don't know. I don't have SRX or REALIS. I only have SFR.
So are we better off reading charts from SRX or REALIS?
thomastansb
16-08-13, 10:05
Depends. No one selling bayview could be a reason as well. We won't know. Just like a low floor carpark facing unit which is transacted at > 2k psf. That is the highest in history. Is it trading at 20% below peak? I don't think so. The 2k psf carpark view unit has in fact, set a peak psf.
Anyway, I have pointed out that it is not a few data that is flawed. It is the calculation part that is flawed. You can't take a single transaction across the entire history and assume that is the highest.
Need to understand that in any scientific measurement, there bound to be a few data which are flawed however thats not to say that this table is totally meaningless.
As for the sail, its pretty obvious that the sail can no longer command the kind of premium it used to get because the place is very run down as it ages. And perhaps the reason why there isnt bay view transaction was because buyers no longer willing to pay premium for the bay views, hence no transaction. Actually there are many bay view unit for sale, just that no buyers.
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