200k of residential units in the next three years [Archive] - Condo Forum Singapore Property Review Mortgage Loan Buy Rent Sell Real Estate

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wind30

25-10-13, 19:53

Ringo33

25-10-13, 20:10

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/total-of-204-461-homes-to/861670.html

Lets say each unit can house an average of 4 people, that is like 800k people.

Will our population increase by 800k in 3 years?

Majority have already been sold to newly wed and upgraders, I think this could have an impact of HDB resale market.

indomie

25-10-13, 20:36

This chart plots the Population to Housing Stock Ratio against the Private Residential Property Price Index (PPI). The population to housing stock ratio is derived by singaporepropertycycle.com.sg using the population figures from Singstat and the housing stock figures from URA. The ratio can be used as an indicator to help us guage whether there will be a housing oversupply or shortgage in the years ahead.

http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/charts/Singapore-Property-Price-Index-and-Population-to-Housing-Stock-Ratio.jpg

Highlights:

This chart is interesting in that it suggests that we may have a housing oversupply when the ratio of population to housing stock falls below 3.9. This is the case in the years 2000-2005 when HDB has a huge stock of unsold flats due to the impact of the Asian Financial Crisis, dotcom crash, September 11 and SARs and it took HDB about 5 years till 2006 to clear these unsold flats.

The chart also indicates that when the ratio is above 4.2 as in the years 1991-1996 and 2008-present, we may have an undersupply of housing.

So the optimal level of housing could be when the ratio is somewhere between 3.9 and 4.2.

Some analysts have warned that there could be a deluge of homes in 2013-2014. Does the population to housing stock ratio indicate otherwise? - Will there be a housing oversupply in Singapore in 2013-2014?.

diveaces

25-10-13, 20:41

you will need to look at the population to housing stock ..
even with the 200k housing ... we could possibly still be undersupply

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/total-of-204-461-homes-to/861670.html

Lets say each unit can house an average of 4 people, that is like 800k people.

Will our population increase by 800k in 3 years?

Miltonia

25-10-13, 22:56

Just turn on the tap.

What was a twinkle can be increased.

What is a sudden gush can be reduced.

:D

minority

26-10-13, 06:24

100K are HDB. the rest of the new PC can be upgrades and investors. base on 4 person a house hold 25K new house holds thats very modest. all these are new couples.

But that will put a damper on HDB reasle which will also slow upgrades. should see a slow down in suburb condo prices.

minority

26-10-13, 06:25

DC33_2008

26-10-13, 07:41

Resale flats away from the city are selling at or below valuation. COV will continue too drop for these outskirts resale flats. Upgraders who have bought ECs or PCs and want to sell their flats in 2014/2015 will be affected. Singapore's Economy will still remain strong in the next 3-6 months and hope it will continue otherwise the impact can be greater.

thomastansb

26-10-13, 09:37

HDB prices will be jia lat. Wait till 100,000 flats reach MOP in a few years time.

Resale flats away from the city are selling at or below valuation. COV will continue too drop for these outskirts resale flats. Upgraders who have bought ECs or PCs and want to sell their flats in 2014/2015 will be affected. Singapore's Economy will still remain strong in the next 3-6 months and hope it will continue otherwise the impact can be greater.

radha08

26-10-13, 09:42

the only segment that WONT be affected is FH LANDED:scared-2:cos the rich get richer n the poor(HDB) get poorer....welcome to sillypore...enjoy ur stay:banghead:

Shanhz

26-10-13, 13:37

Just turn on the tap.

What was a twinkle can be increased.

What is a sudden gush can be reduced.

:D

tap will be on after 2016

thomastansb

26-10-13, 17:43

Not really. Landed already dropped quite a bit. Especially those detached houses. In contrary, HDB didn't drop much.

the only segment that WONT be affected is FH LANDED:scared-2:cos the rich get richer n the poor(HDB) get poorer....welcome to sillypore...enjoy ur stay:banghead: