West Coast condo site awarded to Cheung Kong-linked firm

[toaler]

SINGAPORE : Billion Rise - a company believed to be linked to Hong Kong property giant Cheung Kong Holdings - has put in the top bid of S$110.4 million for a residential site at West Coast Crescent.

This works out to S$305 per square foot per plot ratio for the 99-year leasehold parcel.

Analysts expect a break-even price of between S$680 and S$720 per square foot for a new condominium on the site. The units are expected to be marketed at around S$800 per square foot.

The next highest offer of S$108.9 million came from Tian Hock Properties, and the lowest bid was S$50 million from Scantech Development.

All in, the Urban Redevelopment Authority received 12 offers for the land parcel.

Consultant CB Richard Ellis said the strong response signals developers' confidence in the suburban segment despite the current lukewarm response to new projects.

Consultant Knight Frank expects the new condominium to yield about 300 units.

It believes the high level of interest for the site is because it is close to schools and has a good view of Clementi Park, West Coast Park and the sea.

The site spans 12,000 square metres and has a maximum permissible gross floor area of 33,600 square metres. This means that the proposed condominium could be built up to about 36 storeys.

The winner of the award is expected to be announced after the bids have been reviewed. - CNA/ms

[Unregistered]

Sour grapes will not be very pleased with this development.

[Unregistered]

Sour grapes will not be very pleased with this development.

Actually I've found another piece of news from ChannelNewsAsia's website, but since you say that the sour grapes are already not very pleased with the above development, then I shall post the news below in a colour that is not very noticeable.

Title : HDB receives overwhelming response to Jade Spring flats in Yishun
By :
Date : 19 March 2008 2328 hrs (SST)
URL : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/336078/1/.html

SINGAPORE : The Housing and Development Board (HDB) has received an overwhelming response to its second batch of Build-to-Order flats in Yishun.

Jade Spring was launched on Tuesday, and as of 5pm on Wednesday, HDB received 771 applications for the 576 flats available.

715 of the applications were for the four-room units.

The prices of the two, three and four-room units range from S$77,000 to $253,000.

Interested applicants had been given until March 31 to submit their forms.

But following the overwhelming response, HDB has announced that it will now cut the application period and the balloting sales exercise to just two weeks - till 31 March - with immediate effect.

Jade Springs is located at the junction of Yishun Ring Road and Yishun Avenue 11.

It is situated near Yishun town centre, the MRT station and the upcoming Khoo Teck Puat Hospital. - CNA/ms

[Unregistered]

SINGAPORE : Billion Rise - a company believed to be linked to Hong Kong property giant Cheung Kong Holdings - has put in the top bid of S$110.4 million for a residential site at West Coast Crescent.

This works out to S$305 per square foot per plot ratio for the 99-year leasehold parcel.

Analysts expect a break-even price of between S$680 and S$720 per square foot for a new condominium on the site. The units are expected to be marketed at around S$800 per square foot.

The next highest offer of S$108.9 million came from Tian Hock Properties, and the lowest bid was S$50 million from Scantech Development.

All in, the Urban Redevelopment Authority received 12 offers for the land parcel.

Consultant CB Richard Ellis said the strong response signals developers' confidence in the suburban segment despite the current lukewarm response to new projects.

Consultant Knight Frank expects the new condominium to yield about 300 units.

It believes the high level of interest for the site is because it is close to schools and has a good view of Clementi Park, West Coast Park and the sea.

The site spans 12,000 square metres and has a maximum permissible gross floor area of 33,600 square metres. This means that the proposed condominium could be built up to about 36 storeys.

The winner of the award is expected to be announced after the bids have been reviewed. - CNA/ms

Consensus estimates for (replacement/new) construction cost for mass market condo is now approximately 380-420 psf. Steel bar prices has doubled in the market.

[mr funny]

Published March 20, 2008

Cheung Kong pips Far East in URA tender

It offers $305psf ppr for West Coast condo plot next to Blue Horizon

By KALPANA RASHIWALA


(SINGAPORE) Cheung Kong Holdings-linked Billion Rise yesterday pipped Far East Organization to emerge as top bidder for a 99-year leasehold condo site facing West Coast Park and overlooking the sea.

Billion Rise's bid of $110.44 million or $305 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) was just 1.4 per cent higher than the next highest offer of $301 psf ppr by Far East unit Tian Hock Properties.

The tender for the choice plot, next to Blue Horizon condo developed by Far East, attracted 12 bids. City Developments and TID, Allgreen Properties, Frasers Centrepoint, MCL Land, Sim Lian, a Kheng Leong unit and Hoi Hup Realty were among the other bidders. Entities linked to Alpha Investment Partners and Teambuild Construction also took part in the tender.

Yesterday's outcome was in a sharp contrast to that at a state tender last week for a landed housing plot at Jurong West when there were just two bids - both way below market expectations. The Housing & Development Board, which conducted that tender, decided not to award the site.

On offer at yesterday's tender, conducted by Urban Redevelopment Authority, was a more appealing site near the sea and a short drive from the VivoCity shopping and entertainment complex.

'The plot attracted an overwhelming response of 12 bids from major and mid-size developers and contractors,' said CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho. 'It signals developers' confidence in the suburban segment despite the current lukewarm response to new projects.'

Notwithstanding the wide participation in yesterday's tender, the top bid of $305 psf ppr was towards the lower end of the $260-400 psf ppr range of bids indicated by property consultants when the site was launched in January.

Industry sources suggested that Cheung Kong's breakeven cost for the condo could be about $600-630 psf. 'It is likely that units in the proposed development will be sold at an average price of around $750-800 psf,' said Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak.

Units at Blue Horizon next door were transacted at an average price of $740 psf in Q4 last year.

Market watchers had expected Cheung Kong, controlled by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, to be awarded the latest site. The last time that a company in Mr Li's stable was awarded a 99-year condo site in a state tender here was 11 years ago in early 1997, when Japura Pte Ltd placed the top bid of $456.51 psf ppr for a site in Bayshore Road, which it later developed into the Costa Del Sol condo that boasted sweeping views of Singapore's eastern shoreline.

Costa Del Sol is in front of The Bayshore condo, which was developed by Far East. This time, the heavyweights took the competition to the West Coast.


http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-03-20/BT_IMAGES_WEST20.jpg

[mr funny]

March 20, 2008

West Coast condo plot draws whopping 12 bids

HK-linked firm puts in top tender of $305 psf for site in attractive location

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent

http://business.asiaone.com/A1MEDIA/business/03Mar08/images/20080320.104022_westcoastcondosite_524x442.jpg

COMPETITION was brisk for a 99-year leasehold condominium site in West Coast Crescent, with 12 firms defying signs of a property slowdown to lodge bids.

The bidders included major and mid-sized developers and contractors, with a Hong Kong-linked firm emerging with the highest tender - but only just. Billion Rise, which is linked to the Cheung Kong group, bid $110.44 million for the site - $305 per sq ft (psf) of gross floor area - to pip its nearest rival by 1 per cent.

Tian Hock Properties, which has Far East Organization chief executive Philip Ng as a shareholder, tendered $108.9 million or $301 psf. MCL Land was next with $103.5 million or $286 psf.

The response was strong, in contrast to the weak property market sentiment. One sign of that came on Tuesday when the Government decided not to award a leasehold landed plot in Westwood Avenue in Jurong West as the bids were too low.

Consultants pointed to differences between the two sites. They said the West Coast Crescent site's prime location had sparked the keen interest.

It suits a mass market condo project, which would be able to better weather any sector weakness, said Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak.

The Jurong West landed plot was in a less favourable spot and would have accommodated 99-year leasehold landed homes, which typically do not sell as well, he added.

The West Coast Crescent site can be built up to about 36 storeys. Some high-floor units would enjoy good views of the ocean and West Coast Park as surrounding buildings are mostly low- to medium-rise, he said.

This tender also reflects the current market situation as some bids came in relatively low. Industry sources say a few developers were trying their luck with opportunistic bids.

The lowest bid of $50 million, from Teambuild Construction's Scantech Development, works out to just $138 psf.

Other bidders included Sim Lian Land ($236 psf), Hoi Hup Realty ($235 psf), Frasers Centrepoint ($210 psf) and Allgreen Properties ($186 psf). City Developments' Sunny Vista Developments and TID also put in a bid of $180 psf.

Consultants said the top bid of $305 psf will translate into an estimated break-even price of $680 psf to $720 psf for new condos. Units could be sold at between $750 and $800 psf.

Units at nearby Blue Horizon were sold at about $750 psf in the resale market in January and February, while sub-sales of units in Varsity Park and Clementi Woods were done at $680 psf to $750 psf, according to CBRE Research.

[email protected]

[Unregistered]

Asian Stocks Fall, Led by Commodity Producers; BHP Tumbles

By Chua Kong Ho and Shani Raja

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, led by commodity producers, after oil, copper and gold prices plunged amid concern a global slowdown will reduce demand for raw materials.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, tumbled the most in more than 20 years in Sydney and Zhongjin Gold Corp. plunged to a four-month low in Shanghai. PetroChina Co., the country's biggest oil producer, declined in Hong Kong after posting less-than-estimated profit as drilling costs rose.

``The U.S. is still the biggest contributor to global growth, so any slowdown will have implications for commodity prices,'' said Jason Teh, who helps manage the equivalent of $5.3 billion at Investors Mutual Ltd. in Sydney. ``It's going to be a one-way street for resources today.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 2.5 percent to 425.65 as of 11:51 a.m. in Hong Kong, snapping a two-day, 3.6 percent advance. About four stocks fell for each that rose. The benchmark has slumped 20 percent this year, poised for its worst quarter in more than six years, on concern the U.S. will sink into a recession amid mounting losses tied to the country's subprime mortgage industry.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 3.1 percent, the most in two weeks, in shortened trading, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 3.5 percent. Japan's markets are closed for a holiday today, in addition to Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. Other markets, including Hong Kong, will close tomorrow for Easter holidays until March 25.

``People are nervous about the long weekend,'' said Ivan Leung, who helps manage $400 billion as Hong Kong-based chief investment strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank. ``If you're expecting any surprise, it's likely to be a negative one.''

Commodity Producers

A measure of raw materials producers tumbled 6 percent today, the most in two months. BHP, also Australia's largest oil producer, lost 8.3 percent to A$33.87, the most since October 1987. Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company, fell 7.7 percent to A$116.29.

A measure of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, including copper and nickel, dropped 2.8 percent. Zinc fell by the exchanged-imposed daily limit of 4 percent in Shanghai. Gold futures plunged the most since June 2006 to $945.30 an ounce in New York. Crude oil fell the most since August to $104.48 a barrel, after a government report showed U.S. demand dropped.

Zhongjin Gold tumbled 8.3 percent to 89.98 yuan, its lowest since Dec. 20. Jiangxi Copper Co., China's No. 2 producer of the metal, plunged 9.8 percent to HK$13.60 in Hong Kong, its weakest since August. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's largest gold producer, dived 13 percent to A$31.30.

PetroChina dropped 6.6 percent to HK$9.19, the lowest level since May. Profit for 2007 climbed 3.7 percent to 63.8 billion yuan ($9.03 billion), lower than the median estimate of 72.2 billion yuan in a Bloomberg News survey.

[Unregistered]

Published March 20, 2008

Cheung Kong pips Far East in URA tender

It offers $305psf ppr for West Coast condo plot next to Blue Horizon

By KALPANA RASHIWALA


(SINGAPORE) Cheung Kong Holdings-linked Billion Rise yesterday pipped Far East Organization to emerge as top bidder for a 99-year leasehold condo site facing West Coast Park and overlooking the sea.

Billion Rise's bid of $110.44 million or $305 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) was just 1.4 per cent higher than the next highest offer of $301 psf ppr by Far East unit Tian Hock Properties.

The tender for the choice plot, next to Blue Horizon condo developed by Far East, attracted 12 bids. City Developments and TID, Allgreen Properties, Frasers Centrepoint, MCL Land, Sim Lian, a Kheng Leong unit and Hoi Hup Realty were among the other bidders. Entities linked to Alpha Investment Partners and Teambuild Construction also took part in the tender.

Yesterday's outcome was in a sharp contrast to that at a state tender last week for a landed housing plot at Jurong West when there were just two bids - both way below market expectations. The Housing & Development Board, which conducted that tender, decided not to award the site.

On offer at yesterday's tender, conducted by Urban Redevelopment Authority, was a more appealing site near the sea and a short drive from the VivoCity shopping and entertainment complex.

'The plot attracted an overwhelming response of 12 bids from major and mid-size developers and contractors,' said CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho. 'It signals developers' confidence in the suburban segment despite the current lukewarm response to new projects.'

Notwithstanding the wide participation in yesterday's tender, the top bid of $305 psf ppr was towards the lower end of the $260-400 psf ppr range of bids indicated by property consultants when the site was launched in January.

Industry sources suggested that Cheung Kong's breakeven cost for the condo could be about $600-630 psf. 'It is likely that units in the proposed development will be sold at an average price of around $750-800 psf,' said Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak.

Units at Blue Horizon next door were transacted at an average price of $740 psf in Q4 last year.

Market watchers had expected Cheung Kong, controlled by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, to be awarded the latest site. The last time that a company in Mr Li's stable was awarded a 99-year condo site in a state tender here was 11 years ago in early 1997, when Japura Pte Ltd placed the top bid of $456.51 psf ppr for a site in Bayshore Road, which it later developed into the Costa Del Sol condo that boasted sweeping views of Singapore's eastern shoreline.

Costa Del Sol is in front of The Bayshore condo, which was developed by Far East. This time, the heavyweights took the competition to the West Coast.


http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-03-20/BT_IMAGES_WEST20.jpg
WOW THE LOWEST BID REFLECTS THE MARKET STATE. 138PSF ONLY? IS IT?

[Unregistered]

Published March 20, 2008

Cheung Kong pips Far East in URA tender

It offers $305psf ppr for West Coast condo plot next to Blue Horizon

By KALPANA RASHIWALA


(SINGAPORE) Cheung Kong Holdings-linked Billion Rise yesterday pipped Far East Organization to emerge as top bidder for a 99-year leasehold condo site facing West Coast Park and overlooking the sea.
.......................................................
Notwithstanding the wide participation in yesterday's tender, the top bid of $305 psf ppr was towards the lower end of the $260-400 psf ppr range of bids indicated by property consultants when the site was launched in January.

.....................................................................
Well the text in red says it all.

[Unregistered]

Well the text in red says it all.

Still within the range. That says it all. There are still buyers and not what the sour grapes have been shouting, CRASH CRASH. If really crash, lower range also cannot get, u know.

[Unregistered]

Leading Economic Indicators in U.S. Probably Fell in February

By Courtney Schlisserman

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell for a fifth month in February, reflecting mounting signs that a recession has begun, economists said before a report today.

The Conference Board's gauge, which points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months, fell 0.3 percent last month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The last time the index dropped for as many months was in 1990, when the economy was shrinking.

The leading index dropped as building permits, stock prices and consumer sentiment sank and first-time claims for jobless benefits jumped. Federal Reserve policy makers this week said risks to growth remain even after lowering the benchmark interest rate and making billions of dollars available to banks and securities firms to try to stabilize financial markets.

``A losing streak of five months is usually reserved for recessionary periods,'' said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings in New York. ``Once the labor market cracks, like it did last month, it shows the cycle is starting to turn down.''

The Conference Board, a New York-based non-profit research group, is scheduled to issue the report at 10 a.m. local time. The 58 estimates in the Bloomberg News survey ranged from a 0.7 percent decline to an increase of 0.2 percent.

Reports so far this month signal the leading index will keep falling. A report from the Labor Department due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington is forecast to show that initial jobless claims rose to 360,000 last week, according to the median survey projection.

Rising Claims

Applications for unemployment benefits last month averaged 359,200, compared with 326,500 in January, according to Labor Department figures.

A 10:00 a.m. report from the Fed Bank of Philadelphia is forecast to show manufacturing in the region contracted for a fourth month in March.

Seven of the 10 components of the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, supplier delivery times and factory hours. The Conference Board estimates the remaining three: new orders for consumer goods, new orders for non-defense capital goods and the money supply.

Building permits for February fell 7.8 percent to an annual pace of 707,000, the lowest level in more than 16 years, the Commerce Department said on March 18.

The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer expectations dropped to the lowest level since 1992 last month and a preliminary reading for March, issued last week, showed the measure is still declining.

Spending Cools

Americans are spending less as pessimism grows. AnnTaylor Stores Corp., the clothing retailer geared toward women ages 25 to 55, last week reported a fourth-quarter loss and said same- store sales may decline in 2008.

The deteriorating economy had a ``major impact'' on store traffic, Chief Executive Officer Kay Krill said in a March 14 conference call.

``Downside risks to the economy remain,'' Fed policy makers said in a March 18 statement announcing the central bank lowered its target for the benchmark rate by three-quarters of a point to 2.25 percent. The Fed has cut the rate by three percentage points since September.

On March 16, the central bank also lowered the rate on direct loans to banks and said it will provide up to $30 billion to JPMorgan Chase & Co. to help finance the purchase of Bear Stearns Cos. after a run on the fifth-largest U.S. securities dealer.

More Funding

Less than a week earlier, the Fed said it would make up to $200 billion in Treasuries available through weekly auctions in exchange for other securities that for the first time will include those backed by mortgages issued by private lenders.

Companies are counting on gains overseas as the U.S. economy slows. General Electric Co. Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt told investors on March 13 that demand for the company's products from infrastructure projects and growth in Europe, Asia and Africa is helping offset any drag from a slump in the U.S.

``I still believe in the strength of the global economy now, but the U.S. consumer is in a tougher patch,'' Immelt said in a forum on the company's Web site.

[Unregistered]

We need more bad news.

[Unregistered]

We need more bad news.

We had been receiving bad news non-stop since the start of sub-prime.... Since the start of 08, it's been nothing but bad news so far...

[Unregistered]

Consensus estimates for (replacement/new) construction cost for mass market condo is now approximately 380-420 psf. Steel bar prices has doubled in the market.

Ya lor. Read the Business Times article today below.

The price of steel has almost doubled in the past 15 months and "poised to keep rising this year".

Very soon, the price of the steel inside our condos will be worth more than the condo itself.


Business Times - 20 Mar 2008

Stress test for builders as steel price soars

It has almost doubled in 15 months and is poised to keep rising this year

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-03-20/BT_IMAGES_STEEL20.jpg

By UMA SHANKARI

(SINGAPORE) The price of steel has almost doubled since January 2007 and this could come in the way of the construction industry's quest to reduce its dependence on concrete.

In Singapore, industry players report that the price of both steel reinforcement bars (rebars) and structural steel has gone up by around 80-100 per cent over the past 15 months. This comes on the back of higher global demand and hikes in the costs of the raw materials used to make the metal.

The development is a setback for the construction industry, which was veering towards using more steel to reduce dependence on concrete, which is more prone to supply-side shocks.

'In the last 15 months, steel prices (steel rebars and structural steel) have gone up by about 80 per cent,' said Jackson Yap, chief executive of United Engineers.

Brandon Lye, assistant vice-president for Sembawang Engineers and Constructors, similarly said that steel prices have doubled over the past 18 months.

Data provided by industry regulator Building and Construction Authority (BCA) shows that the price of 20mm-high tensile steel was $752.50 a tonne in January 2007.

But by January 2008, the price had climbed to $1,235.46 a tonne - a rise of some 64 per cent. The price continued to climb in February and March, industry players said.

On the back of this, the proportion of steel cost against total construction cost has gone up from about 10 per cent to 15 per cent over the same period, Mr Yap said.

One reason for the steel price hike is increasing global demand, said Bernard Chung, second vice-president of the Singapore Structural Steel Society.

Macquarie Research's data shows that global steel consumption rose from 1.24 billion tonnes in 2006 to 1.33 billion tonnes in 2007. Demand is expected to continue growing in 2008 - Macquarie Research forecasts global steel demand of 1.43 billion tonnes for this year.

Mr Chung said the demand is being driven by developing economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. He said that these four countries alone accounted for about three-quarters of demand growth between 1997 and 2006.

Similarly, Macquarie Research said that China accounted for 62 per cent of world demand growth from 2000 to 2007.

Steel prices have also been pushed up by large rises in the costs of raw materials, industry players said.

'The cost of components used to make steel - iron ore, scrap, coking coal, coke, freight and electricity - have also gone up,' Mr Chung said.

Macquarie Research said that steel mills are expected to pass through large rises in raw material costs in 2008, which could add around US$150 per tonne to steel costs. Add this to price increases brought on by surging demand, and the overall price of steel could climb even more this year, analysts said.

In Singapore, increases in the price of steel could impact the industry's move towards using more steel for building.

BCA, for example, has been encouraging more extensive use of steel for construction since Indonesia banned the export of concreting sand in January 2007. Land sand is used to make concrete.

'Rising steel prices will slow down the drive towards the use of more steel for sustainable construction,' said United Engineers' Mr Yap.

BCA, however, pointed out that the prices for both ready-mixed concrete and steel have increased by about 60 per cent, which means that the situation has not changed that much in terms of cost competitiveness.

'However, steel is more readily available from many sources as compared to sand and granite,' a BCA spokeswoman said.

And where faster 'time-to-market' is required, developers will still continue to use steel, Mr Yap said.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Unregistered]

We had been receiving bad news non-stop since the start of sub-prime.... Since the start of 08, it's been nothing but bad news so far...

"We" means the "sour grapes" who do not have money to invest in properties but bought stocks instead, and who saw their networth (already miniscule) dropped by 28% when the STI plunged from 3905.07 on 10 Oct 2007 to 2,808.53 this afternoon.

On the other hand, the URA residential properties index showed that property prices have held steady. In fact, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) even rose 14.2%.

[Unregistered]

"We" means the "sour grapes" who do not have money to invest in properties but bought stocks instead, and who saw their networth (already miniscule) dropped by 28% when the STI plunged from 3905.07 on 10 Oct 2007 to 2,808.53 this afternoon.

On the other hand, the URA residential properties index showed that property prices have held steady. In fact, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) even rose 14.2%.

eh please lar dont mislead people with ur 14.2%.. it's the median transacted prices in all of Rest of Central Region and not comparing prices within individual projects..

[Unregistered]

eh please lar dont mislead people with ur 14.2%.. it's the median transacted prices in all of Rest of Central Region and not comparing prices within individual projects..

What is your point? Is it going up or coming down? Answer me.

[Unregistered]

eh please lar dont mislead people with ur 14.2%.. it's the median transacted prices in all of Rest of Central Region and not comparing prices within individual projects..

Since when did I say that it's comparing the prices within individual projects?

I'm just quoting the statistics published by URA.

Similarly when I quoted the 28% fall when the STI plunged from 3905.07 on 10 Oct 2007 to 2,808.53, that's an average of the index stocks and does not represent any particular individual company's share price.

If everytime when I make a posting, I must dissect all the individual stock quotes and individual project transactions, then my posting will be hundreds of pages long.

The same applies for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the URA residential price index ... they're all averages, but they do give a rough idea of how the general market is moving.

[Unregistered]

welcome billion rise to west coast

indeed, a designer development will add to the relaxing ambience of this part west coast

lucky it is billion rise

[Unregistered]

Since when did I say that it's comparing the prices within individual projects?

I'm just quoting the statistics published by URA.

Similarly when I quoted the 28% fall when the STI plunged from 3905.07 on 10 Oct 2007 to 2,808.53, that's an average of the index stocks and does not represent any particular individual company's share price.

If everytime when I make a posting, I must dissect all the individual stock quotes and individual project transactions, then my posting will be hundreds of pages long.

The same applies for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the URA residential price index ... they're all averages, but they do give a rough idea of how the general market is moving.
So the early estimate indicates an increase of 14.2% for RCR lah.

Anyway, it's an estimate. Don't get too excited over it. The actual figure could be 10-30% higher or lower.

[Unregistered]

billion rise has sharp eyes ... this part of west coast is happening indeed

[Unregistered]

billion rise has sharp eyes ... this part of west coast is happening indeed

Yes, not only sharp. he has sharpest eyes in property that make him the richest chinese in the world.

[Unregistered]

Yes, not only sharp. he has sharpest eyes in property that make him the richest chinese in the world.

Most of the richest people in Asia made their money in properties.

In fact property magnates make up bulk of the top 10 richest men in both Singapore.

Forbes Singapore 2007

1. Ng Teng Fong (USD 6.7 billion) - Properties (Far East)
2. Khoo Teck Puat's Family (USD 5.7 billion) - Banking (StanChart)
3. Wee Cho Yaw (USD 3.3 billion) - Banking (UOB) & Propeties (UOL)
4. Zhong Sheng Jian (USD 2.5 billion) - China Property Developer (Yanlord Land)
5. Kwek Leng Beng (USD 1.1 billion) - Properties (CDL & Hong Leong)
6. Kuok Khoon Hong (USD 960 million) - Commodities (Palm Oil)
7. Peter Lim (USD 830 million) - Commodities (Palm Oil)
8. Lee Seng Wee (USD 650 million) - Banking (OCBC) & Properties (Bukit Sembawang)
9. Denis Jen (USD 600 million) - Textiles and Shopping Mall Owner
10. Chew Hua Seng (USD 595 million) - Education (Raffles Education)

So out of the top 10 richest men in Singapore, 3 are pure property tycoons, 2 are banking cum property, 1 is textile cum property, 1 is in banking, 2 are in commodities, and 1 in education.

What does that tell us?

The successful people don't really produce much things. They ride either the properties or commodities boom. OCBC's founder Lee Kong Chian was known as the "Rubber and Pineapple King" during his time.

The poor engineer or technician who churns our disk drives at the Tuas factory probably takes about 100,000 years (or 1000 lifetimes assuming each lifetime is 100 years) to earn what these tycoons are worth.

I have experienced the same thing myself. The amount of money I made speculating in properties over the past two years is equal to the amount of money I made since I started work.

Should I feel happy or sad? A bit of both.

[Reuters]

http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nws/p/reuters_logo_94.png
Wall St surges on hopes of easing credit crunch
Justin Grant
Reuters
Thursday, 20 March 2008, 4:38 PM U.S. EDT

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20080321/2008_03_20t170454_450x297_us_markets_stocks.jpg
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange 18 March 2008. - Photo: Brendan McDermid, Reuters

Stocks jumped on Thursday, capping a tumultuous week, on optimism that giving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a bigger role in the mortgage market will ease a credit crunch that claimed Bear Stearns as its biggest victim.

Stocks closed out their best week in nearly two months on the strength of financial shares, which bore the brunt of investors' wrath since the credit crisis unfolded last summer. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 gained 2.4% for the day and rose 3.2% for the week.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac delivered eye-popping gains for a third session, each rising more than 50% since Monday. Meanwhile, major banks such as Bank of America, JPMorgan and Citigroup rose between 8% and 10% each on Thursday, while the Dow Jones index of home building stocks soared 8.3%.

Industrial heavyweight General Electric helped lead the Dow higher with a 5.3% gain to $37.49 after Merrill Lynch raised its rating on the stock as a safe bet in a slowing economy.

A second day of plunging oil and gold prices helped ease fears of inflation getting out of control, spurring gains across the board. Energy-sensitive sectors such as airlines and consumer discretionary companies gained about 3%.

Financial "stocks are moving inversely to what's been going on in the commodities markets with commodities prices falling in the last couple of days," said Matt Kaufler, portfolio manager and equity analyst at Clover Capital Management, in Rochester, New York.

"And the overarching assumption to all of this being that the worst of it is likely behind us."

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) gained 261.66 points, or 2.16 percent, to 12,361.32. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) climbed 31.09 points, or 2.39 percent, to 1,329.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) rose 48.15 points, or 2.18 percent, to 2,258.11.

Fannie Mae rose 11.7% to $34.30, while Freddie Mac climbed 9% to $32.58 after Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded them, saying recent government actions will help the mortgage giants in stabilizing the ailing housing market.

Crude oil fell 70 cents to $101.84 a barrel, after earlier sliding to a session low below $99 a barrel. That pullback in oil prices alleviated worries about the effect of high energy costs on consumers and businesses.

Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc, the world's largest retailer, rose 4.8% to $53.23.

Stocks had rallied early in the day after a survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank showed factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region shrinking for the fourth consecutive month in March, but by slightly less than the median forecast.

Helping the Nasdaq were shares of Intel Corp, up 3.1% to $21.75 after the chip maker raised its quarterly dividend by 10%, while Apple Inc rose 2.8% to $133.27.

Shares of Nike Inc jumped 8.8% to $67.27 after the company posted a third-quarter profit that handily beat estimates.

Markets will be closed for Good Friday. The U.S. bond market closed early on Thursday.

Trading was extremely heavy on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 2.77 billion shares changing hands, well above last year's estimated daily average of roughly 1.9 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 2.68 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.17 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by about 3 to 1 and by about 2 to 1 on Nasdaq.

[Unregistered]

Since when did I say that it's comparing the prices within individual projects?

I'm just quoting the statistics published by URA.

Similarly when I quoted the 28% fall when the STI plunged from 3905.07 on 10 Oct 2007 to 2,808.53, that's an average of the index stocks and does not represent any particular individual company's share price.

If everytime when I make a posting, I must dissect all the individual stock quotes and individual project transactions, then my posting will be hundreds of pages long.

The same applies for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the URA residential price index ... they're all averages, but they do give a rough idea of how the general market is moving.

Good one. Totally agree!

[Reuters]

http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nws/p/reuters_logo_94.png
Japan's Nikkei Up 1.8% As Banks, Brokers Gain
Aiko Hayashi
Reuters
Tokyo, Japan
Friday, 21 March 2008

Japan's Nikkei average jumped 1.8% on Friday, closing higher for a third straight session as investors snapped up financial shares such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group amid hopes that U.S. measures to cope with the credit crunch will stabilise markets and support the economy.

But commodity-related shares, such as gold and copper producer Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd and trading company Mitsubishi Corp, weighed on the market after a tumble in commodity prices, while electronics conglomerate Toshiba Corp slipped after cutting its profit forecasts.

The two largest U.S. home financing companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, won regulatory approval on Wednesday to pump $200 billion more into troubled U.S. mortgage markets, easing fears about the credit crunch that has claimed Bear Stearns as its biggest victim.

Akihito Yamanoi, general manager at AIG Global Investment Corp's (Japan) equity investment department, said investors simply picked up shares seen as oversold, encouraged by a series of measures to tackle the credit problems and by a temporary halt in the fall of the dollar and stock prices.

"Tremendous worries about the financial system have receded for the time being after investors saw the U.S. steps, helping the U.S. and Japanese financial sectors," he said.

"But further gains will likely be limited for a while as there still isn't much optimism in the market as even with those measures, the U.S. real economy won't pick up right away and already-shrunk funds won't come back immediately."

The benchmark Nikkei average ended up 1.8%, or 222.13 points, at 12,482.57.

For the holiday-shortened week, the Nikkei gained 2%, but it is still down more than 11% from the recent high hit in late February.

The broader TOPIX index was up nearly 2%, or 23.74 points, to finish at 1,220.04.

Trade was thin on the Tokyo exchange's first section, with 1.8 billion shares changings hands, compared with last week's daily average of 2.4 billion.

Advancing stocks beat declining ones by nearly 7 to 1.

Shares of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd jumped 6.3% to 437 yen after the Nikkei business daily reported that Japan's biggest heavy machinery maker is preparing to go ahead with plans to launch a 150 billion yen ($1.5 billion) regional jet project.

Financial Gain

Financial shares rose with top Japanese bank Mitsubishi UFJ gaining 4.6% to 892 yen.

No. 2 Mizuho Financial Group climbed 4.7% to 404,000 yen and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan's third-biggest bank, jumped 5.9% to 718,000 yen.

Nomura Holdings Inc, Japan's largest brokerage, added 2.5% to 1,588 yen.

Among stocks that were sold off, Sumitomo Metal Mining shares tumbled 9.7% to 1,741 yen and zinc smelter Toho Zinc dropped 5.4% to 509 yen.

In New York, gold finished almost 3% lower on Thursday as investment funds cashed in bullion for cash to cover losses in other financial markets. Spot gold bottomed at $904.65 -- a level last seen on Feb. 18. Other metals dropped sharply following gold's decline.

Among trading houses, which have stakes in metals mines overseas, Mitsubishi was down 5.8% at 2,745 yen and Mitsui & Co Ltd lost 7% at 1,949 yen.

Elsewhere, Toshiba dropped 1.9% to 677 yen after cutting its annual pretax profit outlook by 29% on Wednesday, hit by falls in prices of NAND flash memory chips and the cost of pulling out of next-generation DVDs.

Sony Corp also lost ground, dropping 1.7% to 4,170 yen after its cellphone venture with Ericsson said first-quarter earnings could fall by more than half due to slowing market growth of mid to high-end phones.

[Unregistered]

cheung Kong is capable of pre-marketing at least 30-50% of units for their West Coast project in HK/Macau.

[Unregistered]

Only one site tendered. Not much of an indication for anything. Just a one-off blip to the current situation which is - no buyers in the market. I foresee another delayed launch.

[Unregistered]

Only one site tendered. Not much of an indication for anything. Just a one-off blip to the current situation which is - no buyers in the market. I foresee another delayed launch.

Wow! You can "foresee"?

You must have made a lot of money from the property market, just like this fellow here ...

http://www.eyecenter.org.hk/images/Li_Ka-shing_copy.jpg

[Unregistered]

Ya lor. Read the Business Times article today below.

The price of steel has almost doubled in the past 15 months and "poised to keep rising this year".

Very soon, the price of the steel inside our condos will be worth more than the condo itself.


Should that happen, then we can forget about en bloc sale, and simply tear down the building for the steel, sell the steel and invest the money, convert the land to a farm (with URA's permission), and wait until new technology brings the cost of construction down so that our children or grandchildren can rebuild the condo then.

[Unregistered]

Worries grow of deeper U.S. recession

- Economist Martin Feldstein believes U.S. is in recession, possibly a severe one

- Severe credit crisis is raising doubts about mild forecasts

- Bear Stearns went from a stock market value of $3.5B to being sold for $236M

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It has been almost an article of faith: Any recession this year will be mild and brief.

A growing number of economists have a U.S. downturn already figured into their forecasts.

But now the stunning meltdown of a top Wall Street investment bank and stubbornly persistent financial market turbulence has called that into question, raising fears that severe problems in housing and the nation's bedrock financial system could cripple the economy and wallop many millions of Americans.

No less an authority than former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote this week that "the current financial crisis in the U.S. is likely to be judged as the most wrenching" since the end of World War II.

Other noted economists are also sounding alarms. Harvard professor Martin Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said recently he believes the country is now in a recession and it could be a severe one.

While it will be many months before the bureau's cycle dating committee, the unofficial arbiter of when recessions begin and end, makes its own ruling, a growing number of private economists already have a downturn figured into their forecasts. They are generally calling for a mild recession that will end this summer when the economic stimulus checks going to 130 million households start getting spent.

But the severe credit crisis that erupted last August -- and claimed its biggest victim this past weekend with the forced sale of Bear Stearns Co. -- is raising doubts about those mild forecasts.

"Bear Stearns was a clear wake-up call. It resonates with everybody and highlights the severity of the stresses in the financial system," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

What got people's attention was how quickly Bear Stearns, the nation's fifth largest investment bank, could go from a stock market value of about $3.5 billion when the market closed on March 14 to being sold at the bargain-basement price of about $236 million two days later.

The Federal Reserve rushed in to take unprecedented actions. It provided a $30 billion line of credit to facilitate the sale and is employing Depression-era provisions that for the first time are providing direct Fed loans to investment banks. Most analysts said the Fed was justified and that its efforts highlighted the severity of the dangers facing the financial system.

The turmoil produced wild swings on Wall Street this week with the Dow Jones industrial average surging on Tuesday after the Fed aggressively cut a key interest rate only to plunge on Wednesday on renewed worries about the economy and then to stage a 262-point gain on Thursday. Markets were closed Friday.

More turbulence is expected in coming weeks because there remains a great deal of uncertainty about how many more victims the credit crisis will claim.

The problems began last year with rising defaults on mortgages as a housing slump intensified, but they have now spread to other parts of the credit markets with institutions growing fearful about making other types of loans.

It is the ability to get credit that makes the financial system and the economy it supports function. When banks stop lending to other institutions that, like Bear Stearns, depend on credit to conduct their day-to-day operations, the results can be catastrophic.

"We can't afford to stagger from one day to the next without knowing what large financial institution might be the next to go down the tubes because of a lack of liquidity. That is way too dangerous a game," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed board member who is now an economist with the Stanford Financial Group. "It is possible that we could be entering the worst recession of the post World War II period. The threat is certainly there."

Because of Bear Stearns, many analysts are raising the odds that a 2008 recession could be worse than expected.

"The potential freezing up of the financial system could have pretty negative ramifications on bank lending which would have negative ramifications on consumer and business spending," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm. He said he had upped the chances of a worse-than-expected recession to 40 percent, up from 25 percent odds before Bear Stearns.

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, said he now has a worst-case-scenario in which the country could endure a double-dip recession in which the economy would briefly recover this summer, helped by the $168 billion in tax relief, only to quickly slip back into a downturn. Under this scenario, the economy's total output, as measured by the gross domestic product, would drop by 2.2 percentage points, making it the third worst recession in the post World War II period.

The worst recession in recent decades, in terms of lost output, occurred in the 1973-75 period of oil shocks, when GDP fell by 3.1 percent, followed by the 1981-82 recession, when GDP dropped by 2.9 percent.

By contrast, in the last two recessions output fell by 1.3 percent in the 1990-91 downturn, and a tiny 0.3 percent in the 2001 recession, making that slump the mildest in the post-war period in terms of lost output. The 2001 downturn lasted just eight months.

Wyss' baseline forecast calls for the 2008 downturn to trim GDP by just 0.5 percent and last for nine months, from last November until August.

Under that forecast, unemployment, which hit a low in this expansion of 4.4 percent and now stands at 4.8 percent, will rise to around 6 percent, meaning 1.5 million people will lose their jobs. Under the worst-case forecast, unemployment jumps to 7.5 percent, meaning 3 million people would be tossed out of work.

"There would be bigger drops in the stock market and in home prices than we are now anticipating and more people out of work," Wyss said. "There would be a lot of pain all the way around."

While they are developing worst-case-scenarios, Wyss and other economists said they still believe the balance has not tipped from their more benign main forecasts. One thing that gives them hope is the expectation that Congress and the Bush administration, having acted so quickly to pass the first stimulus package, will move quickly, especially in an election year, to pass a second package if needed.

Also, analysts said the Bear Stearns crisis, which has already prompted the Fed to move more aggressively, will also probably trigger a bigger response on the part of Congress and the administration in offering help to homeowners to keep them from losing their homes because of mortgage defaults.

"Historically, when policymakers have acted in a concerted and aggressive way, that signals that we are nearing the end of the crisis," said Zandi. "If that occurs this time and the financial markets stabilize in the next few months, then the economy will suffer, but it won't be a prolonged and severe recession."

[Unregistered]

Worries grow of deeper U.S. recession

- Economist Martin Feldstein believes U.S. is in recession, possibly a severe one

- Severe credit crisis is raising doubts about mild forecasts

- Bear Stearns went from a stock market value of $3.5B to being sold for $236M

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It has been almost an article of faith: Any recession this year will be mild and brief.

A growing number of economists have a U.S. downturn already figured into their forecasts.

But now the stunning meltdown of a top Wall Street investment bank and stubbornly persistent financial market turbulence has called that into question, raising fears that severe problems in housing and the nation's bedrock financial system could cripple the economy and wallop many millions of Americans.

No less an authority than former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote this week that "the current financial crisis in the U.S. is likely to be judged as the most wrenching" since the end of World War II.

Other noted economists are also sounding alarms. Harvard professor Martin Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said recently he believes the country is now in a recession and it could be a severe one.

While it will be many months before the bureau's cycle dating committee, the unofficial arbiter of when recessions begin and end, makes its own ruling, a growing number of private economists already have a downturn figured into their forecasts. They are generally calling for a mild recession that will end this summer when the economic stimulus checks going to 130 million households start getting spent.

But the severe credit crisis that erupted last August -- and claimed its biggest victim this past weekend with the forced sale of Bear Stearns Co. -- is raising doubts about those mild forecasts.

"Bear Stearns was a clear wake-up call. It resonates with everybody and highlights the severity of the stresses in the financial system," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

What got people's attention was how quickly Bear Stearns, the nation's fifth largest investment bank, could go from a stock market value of about $3.5 billion when the market closed on March 14 to being sold at the bargain-basement price of about $236 million two days later.

The Federal Reserve rushed in to take unprecedented actions. It provided a $30 billion line of credit to facilitate the sale and is employing Depression-era provisions that for the first time are providing direct Fed loans to investment banks. Most analysts said the Fed was justified and that its efforts highlighted the severity of the dangers facing the financial system.

The turmoil produced wild swings on Wall Street this week with the Dow Jones industrial average surging on Tuesday after the Fed aggressively cut a key interest rate only to plunge on Wednesday on renewed worries about the economy and then to stage a 262-point gain on Thursday. Markets were closed Friday.

More turbulence is expected in coming weeks because there remains a great deal of uncertainty about how many more victims the credit crisis will claim.

The problems began last year with rising defaults on mortgages as a housing slump intensified, but they have now spread to other parts of the credit markets with institutions growing fearful about making other types of loans.

It is the ability to get credit that makes the financial system and the economy it supports function. When banks stop lending to other institutions that, like Bear Stearns, depend on credit to conduct their day-to-day operations, the results can be catastrophic.

"We can't afford to stagger from one day to the next without knowing what large financial institution might be the next to go down the tubes because of a lack of liquidity. That is way too dangerous a game," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed board member who is now an economist with the Stanford Financial Group. "It is possible that we could be entering the worst recession of the post World War II period. The threat is certainly there."

Because of Bear Stearns, many analysts are raising the odds that a 2008 recession could be worse than expected.

"The potential freezing up of the financial system could have pretty negative ramifications on bank lending which would have negative ramifications on consumer and business spending," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm. He said he had upped the chances of a worse-than-expected recession to 40 percent, up from 25 percent odds before Bear Stearns.

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, said he now has a worst-case-scenario in which the country could endure a double-dip recession in which the economy would briefly recover this summer, helped by the $168 billion in tax relief, only to quickly slip back into a downturn. Under this scenario, the economy's total output, as measured by the gross domestic product, would drop by 2.2 percentage points, making it the third worst recession in the post World War II period.

The worst recession in recent decades, in terms of lost output, occurred in the 1973-75 period of oil shocks, when GDP fell by 3.1 percent, followed by the 1981-82 recession, when GDP dropped by 2.9 percent.

By contrast, in the last two recessions output fell by 1.3 percent in the 1990-91 downturn, and a tiny 0.3 percent in the 2001 recession, making that slump the mildest in the post-war period in terms of lost output. The 2001 downturn lasted just eight months.

Wyss' baseline forecast calls for the 2008 downturn to trim GDP by just 0.5 percent and last for nine months, from last November until August.

Under that forecast, unemployment, which hit a low in this expansion of 4.4 percent and now stands at 4.8 percent, will rise to around 6 percent, meaning 1.5 million people will lose their jobs. Under the worst-case forecast, unemployment jumps to 7.5 percent, meaning 3 million people would be tossed out of work.

"There would be bigger drops in the stock market and in home prices than we are now anticipating and more people out of work," Wyss said. "There would be a lot of pain all the way around."

While they are developing worst-case-scenarios, Wyss and other economists said they still believe the balance has not tipped from their more benign main forecasts. One thing that gives them hope is the expectation that Congress and the Bush administration, having acted so quickly to pass the first stimulus package, will move quickly, especially in an election year, to pass a second package if needed.

Also, analysts said the Bear Stearns crisis, which has already prompted the Fed to move more aggressively, will also probably trigger a bigger response on the part of Congress and the administration in offering help to homeowners to keep them from losing their homes because of mortgage defaults.

"Historically, when policymakers have acted in a concerted and aggressive way, that signals that we are nearing the end of the crisis," said Zandi. "If that occurs this time and the financial markets stabilize in the next few months, then the economy will suffer, but it won't be a prolonged and severe recession."

The former Fed chairman is largely responsible for creating the biggest sub-prime mess in the US during his tenure. History will judge him for sure.

[Unregistered]

Worries grow of deeper U.S. recession

- Economist Martin Feldstein believes U.S. is in recession, possibly a severe one

- Severe credit crisis is raising doubts about mild forecasts

- Bear Stearns went from a stock market value of $3.5B to being sold for $236M

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It has been almost an article of faith: Any recession this year will be mild and brief.

A growing number of economists have a U.S. downturn already figured into their forecasts.

But now the stunning meltdown of a top Wall Street investment bank and stubbornly persistent financial market turbulence has called that into question, raising fears that severe problems in housing and the nation's bedrock financial system could cripple the economy and wallop many millions of Americans.

No less an authority than former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote this week that "the current financial crisis in the U.S. is likely to be judged as the most wrenching" since the end of World War II.

Other noted economists are also sounding alarms. Harvard professor Martin Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said recently he believes the country is now in a recession and it could be a severe one.

While it will be many months before the bureau's cycle dating committee, the unofficial arbiter of when recessions begin and end, makes its own ruling, a growing number of private economists already have a downturn figured into their forecasts. They are generally calling for a mild recession that will end this summer when the economic stimulus checks going to 130 million households start getting spent.

But the severe credit crisis that erupted last August -- and claimed its biggest victim this past weekend with the forced sale of Bear Stearns Co. -- is raising doubts about those mild forecasts.

"Bear Stearns was a clear wake-up call. It resonates with everybody and highlights the severity of the stresses in the financial system," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

What got people's attention was how quickly Bear Stearns, the nation's fifth largest investment bank, could go from a stock market value of about $3.5 billion when the market closed on March 14 to being sold at the bargain-basement price of about $236 million two days later.

The Federal Reserve rushed in to take unprecedented actions. It provided a $30 billion line of credit to facilitate the sale and is employing Depression-era provisions that for the first time are providing direct Fed loans to investment banks. Most analysts said the Fed was justified and that its efforts highlighted the severity of the dangers facing the financial system.

The turmoil produced wild swings on Wall Street this week with the Dow Jones industrial average surging on Tuesday after the Fed aggressively cut a key interest rate only to plunge on Wednesday on renewed worries about the economy and then to stage a 262-point gain on Thursday. Markets were closed Friday.

More turbulence is expected in coming weeks because there remains a great deal of uncertainty about how many more victims the credit crisis will claim.

The problems began last year with rising defaults on mortgages as a housing slump intensified, but they have now spread to other parts of the credit markets with institutions growing fearful about making other types of loans.

It is the ability to get credit that makes the financial system and the economy it supports function. When banks stop lending to other institutions that, like Bear Stearns, depend on credit to conduct their day-to-day operations, the results can be catastrophic.

"We can't afford to stagger from one day to the next without knowing what large financial institution might be the next to go down the tubes because of a lack of liquidity. That is way too dangerous a game," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed board member who is now an economist with the Stanford Financial Group. "It is possible that we could be entering the worst recession of the post World War II period. The threat is certainly there."

Because of Bear Stearns, many analysts are raising the odds that a 2008 recession could be worse than expected.

"The potential freezing up of the financial system could have pretty negative ramifications on bank lending which would have negative ramifications on consumer and business spending," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm. He said he had upped the chances of a worse-than-expected recession to 40 percent, up from 25 percent odds before Bear Stearns.

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, said he now has a worst-case-scenario in which the country could endure a double-dip recession in which the economy would briefly recover this summer, helped by the $168 billion in tax relief, only to quickly slip back into a downturn. Under this scenario, the economy's total output, as measured by the gross domestic product, would drop by 2.2 percentage points, making it the third worst recession in the post World War II period.

The worst recession in recent decades, in terms of lost output, occurred in the 1973-75 period of oil shocks, when GDP fell by 3.1 percent, followed by the 1981-82 recession, when GDP dropped by 2.9 percent.

By contrast, in the last two recessions output fell by 1.3 percent in the 1990-91 downturn, and a tiny 0.3 percent in the 2001 recession, making that slump the mildest in the post-war period in terms of lost output. The 2001 downturn lasted just eight months.

Wyss' baseline forecast calls for the 2008 downturn to trim GDP by just 0.5 percent and last for nine months, from last November until August.

Under that forecast, unemployment, which hit a low in this expansion of 4.4 percent and now stands at 4.8 percent, will rise to around 6 percent, meaning 1.5 million people will lose their jobs. Under the worst-case forecast, unemployment jumps to 7.5 percent, meaning 3 million people would be tossed out of work.

"There would be bigger drops in the stock market and in home prices than we are now anticipating and more people out of work," Wyss said. "There would be a lot of pain all the way around."

While they are developing worst-case-scenarios, Wyss and other economists said they still believe the balance has not tipped from their more benign main forecasts. One thing that gives them hope is the expectation that Congress and the Bush administration, having acted so quickly to pass the first stimulus package, will move quickly, especially in an election year, to pass a second package if needed.

Also, analysts said the Bear Stearns crisis, which has already prompted the Fed to move more aggressively, will also probably trigger a bigger response on the part of Congress and the administration in offering help to homeowners to keep them from losing their homes because of mortgage defaults.

"Historically, when policymakers have acted in a concerted and aggressive way, that signals that we are nearing the end of the crisis," said Zandi. "If that occurs this time and the financial markets stabilize in the next few months, then the economy will suffer, but it won't be a prolonged and severe recession."

The former Fed chairman is largely responsible for creating the biggest sub-prime mess in the US during his tenure. History will judge him for sure.

[Happy Feet]

http://www.ap.org/media/images/logo.gif
Wall Street rises after Philadelphia Federal Reserve reading
Caroline Valetkevitch
Business Writer
Associated Press
New York, New York, U.S.
Thursday, 20 March 2008, 10:40am U.S. ET

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080319/capt.eb19a11a4db3432eba21a1eba9b06da9.wall_street_visa_ipo_nyrd109.jpg
Traders crowd the post that will trade Visa Inc. as they wait for the company's IPO to start trading, Wednesday, 19 March 2008. Visa Inc. shares soared more than 30% in their stock market debut Wednesday as investors latched on to the largest IPO in U.S. history. - AP Photo: Richard Drew

Stocks rebounded Thursday after the previous session's big drop, with investors eager to take advantage of bargains and cheered by a milder-than-expected drop in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region. The Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 100 points.

Earlier Thursday, stocks wobbled due to economic worries after the Labor Department said the number of newly laid off workers filing for unemployment benefits rose last week by a more-than-anticipated 22,000 to 378,000. That level is the highest in nearly two months.

But Wall Street found reason to buy back into stocks when the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said manufacturing activity is dropping in March by less than it did in February, and by less than many economists anticipated.

Investors appeared relieved about the Philadelphia Fed's report, but economic jitters are far from alleviated — in addition to the disappointing jobless claims report, the Conference Board said Thursday its index of leading economic indicators fell, as expected, for the fifth straight month in February.

The markets are apt to stay volatile for some time, as investors digest news on the economy and the troubled financial sector.

"It's the every-other-day theory — up one day, and down the next," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates.

In midmorning trading, the Dow rose 108.52, or 0.90%, to 12,208.18.

Broader stock indicators also advanced. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 12.39, or 0.95%, at 1,310.81, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 21.49, or 0.97%, at 2,231.45.

On Wednesday, stocks plummeted, giving back much of Tuesday's big advance as investors grew worried — once again — about the possibility of further troubles at banks with mortgage-related debt on their books. After surging 420 points on Tuesday, the Dow dropped nearly 300.

Bond prices slipped. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.37% from 3.34 percent late Wednesday. Bond trading will be finishing early Thursday ahead of Good Friday, when all the U.S. financial markets will be closed.

In earnings news, Nike Inc. reported late Wednesday a 30% gain in quarterly profit, signaling to Wall Street that some companies are faring well despite the credit crisis. Nike said sales overseas increased largely because of the weak dollar.

A plunge in commodities prices also gave investors some hope that lower energy and food prices might boost consumers' discretionary spending. Crude oil fell back below $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and gold prices sank.

Some energy and metals companies fell on the pullbacks, however. ConocoPhillips fell $1.21 to $72.38; Barrick Gold Corp. fell $2.30, or 5%, to $42.93; and Newmont Mining Corp. fell $1.86, or 3.8%, to $46.86.

In other corporate news, Borders Group Inc., which has been reporting disappointing earnings in recent quarters, revealed early Thursday it may put itself up for sale. The nation's second-largest bookseller said it has lined up $42.5 million in financing so it can continue operating.

Borders fell $1.47, or 21 percent, to $5.63.

The dollar rose against other major currencies, while gold prices sank.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 9.92, or 1.49%, to 674.05.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a heavy 939.9 million shares.

Stock markets overseas were mostly lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 3.5%, but the Shanghai Composite Index closed 1.1%higher after an early plunge. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.15%, Germany's DAX index lost 1.08 percent, and France's CAC-40 1.29%.

Japan's markets were closed for a national holiday.
Swee liao lor!

[Unregistered]

Swee liao lor!
Everything is moving up. You are happy?

[Unregistered]

Everything is moving up. You are happy?
Will soon move down and out when the the guage how severe the recession is.

[Unregistered]

Will soon move down and out when the the guage how severe the recession is.


Recession in Spore, wait 20 years.
Recession in US, no confirmation. If yes, Spore will still grow >5% this year, worst case already factor in.
If no recession in US, Spore will grow >7%, same like last year, property will up another 30%.

[Unregistered]

Recession in Spore, wait 20 years.
Recession in US, no confirmation. If yes, Spore will still grow >5% this year, worst case already factor in.
If no recession in US, Spore will grow >7%, same like last year, property will up another 30%.
Yup. That is more like it.

[Unregistered]

Jim Rogers just call to buy DOW & equity, he said with the support of global central bank, equity is unlikely to fall.
Anyway, we have just seen a big reversal in commodity price, gold, silver, oil, sugar, coffee....all plunge last week from 10-20%, more to come.
In next 2 weeks, we will see US$ & DOW reverse the trend, moving up strongly. All the fund & liquidity, waiting at sideline, will start to buy strongly in global equity market. STI will rebound strongly, what will happen to property market then? with subprime & financial issues suddenly disappear, those who act fast will get some good buy. Those who wait, think, kiasi & kiasu will iss the boat again. You will hear them said, 'aiya actually I wanted to buy this & that, but....'
So hold on to your property, rent them out, they worth much more.

A classic of Chinese saying " See where the direction of the wind blows and turn your sail accordingly". No wonder he is a guru, at least he is smart to see the direction of the wind. No like the sour grapes, still chewing the sour grapes and refuse to let go.

Note: What he thinks/says a few weeks ago, no longer apply. Now, he says otherwise. SMART!

Wah lau!
I wish I can change as fast as him.
So how? So we follow Jim Rogers?

[The Straits Times]

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Singapore interest rates likely to fall further
Fed cut and robust Sing$ could push interbank lending rate below 1%
Nicholas Fang
The Straits Times
Monday, 24 March 2008

Singaporeans can expect cheaper mortgages but lower savings and fixed deposit rates in the months to come.

This is after a move by the United States Federal Reserve to slash a key US interest rate last week.

The Fed had cut three-quarters of a point off its federal funds rate, bringing it to 2.25%, to fight a mushrooming credit crisis and a slowing US economy.

Economists in Singapore said the lowering of the Fed funds rate will have a knock- on effect in the Republic.

The Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), or the rate at which banks lend to one another, tends to track the Fed rate.

Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: 'For Singapore rates, the trend is downwards. We expect the Fed to cut its rate to 1% and Singapore should follow with a lag.'

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He lowered his forecast for the Sibor, estimating it would fall to as low as 0.75% by the end of the third quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 1%.

A recent report by DBS Group Research also forecast the Sibor would fall, to 0.83% in the second quarter, and remain at that rate through the second half before rising next year.

The three-month Sibor fell to a 12-month low of 1.25% last Monday, before recovering to 1.425% on Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday public holiday.

Mr Kit said Singapore rates were also affected by the Singapore dollar's appreciation against the US currency. He said the Singdollar is most probably at the top end of the secret trade-weighted band within which the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) guides the currency.

'With the Singdollar expected to continue appreciating, MAS will aim to moderate it by flooding the market with liquidity, which will in turn pressure interest rates downwards,' he said.

OCBC economist Selena Ling said another consequence of the strong Singdollar would be a high inflow of foreign capital into the Republic. 'This can also contribute to lower interest rates.'

For consumers, the net result is both good and bad.

Banks recently embarked on a mortgage loan war, with Maybank firing the first salvo last month with an aggressive three-year, fixed-rate package offered at 1.68% for the first year.

DBS Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) have also unveiled attractive packages. UOB has one that offers a zero rate in the first year.

And with Sibor-linked home loan package rates likely to head south too, it could be a good time to refinance mortgage loans, experts said.

A DBS spokesman said: 'DBS offers transparent mortgage rates pegged to the Sibor and the CPF Ordinary Account rate, so our rates will move in tandem with market forces.'

But there is also the possibility that savings and fixed deposit rates could slump as interest rates go down.

OCBC's vice-president for group wealth management, Mr Fabian Lum, said the bank would review its deposit rates to keep them in line with prevailing market conditions.

And while the bank has not changed its savings rate recently, it lowered its 12-month fixed deposit rate for amounts between $50,000 and $1 million to 1.2% a year from 1.4% earlier this month.

DBS said that its savings deposit rates had not been adjusted since 2005, but added that its fixed deposit rates are always pegged to the interbank rate and would thus be adjusted accordingly.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said that the low interest rates did not reflect a lack of liquidity on the part of banks. 'The loans-deposit ratio is still very strong, so banks definitely have the money to lend,' he said.

'But I think there is greater caution now, after what has happened in the US with the sub-prime crisis, and people are much more cautious nowadays when it comes to borrowing and lending money.'

[Unregistered]

Ha ha ha! It's coming down.

Crash crash crash! SIBOR will be crashing to 0.75% soon.

Don't say you haven't been warned.

[Unregistered]

Ha ha ha! It's coming down.

Crash crash crash! SIBOR will be crashing to 0.75% soon.

Don't say you haven't been warned.

Dear Sour grapes,

U want the CRASH, U got the CRASH, but sorry hor, this "CRASH" is not your "CRASH". Wrong CRASH..... sob sob.

This crash (SIBOR) is bad news for your crash (properties).

From,
Wait long long

[Unregistered]

Dear Sour grapes,

U want the CRASH, U got the CRASH, but sorry hor, this "CRASH" is not your "CRASH". Wrong CRASH..... sob sob.

This crash (SIBOR) is bad news for your crash (properties).

From,
Wait long long

Hey Mr. Wait Long Long,

Since SIBOR is so cheap now, you can throw a BBQ this weekend. I will bring some sour grapes for dessert if it is ok with you.


Your buddy,

Tan Koo Koo

[Maybank]

Dear Sour grapes,

U want the CRASH, U got the CRASH, but sorry hor, this "CRASH" is not your "CRASH". Wrong CRASH..... sob sob.

This crash (SIBOR) is bad news for your crash (properties).

From,
Wait long long

Hey Mr. Wait Long Long,

Since SIBOR is so cheap now, you can throw a BBQ this weekend. I will bring some sour grapes for dessert if it is ok with you.


Your buddy,

Tan Koo Koo
Stop all your BBQs and desserts and come down to one of our branches this weekends. We are really short-handed in processing the applications. Your assistance will be highly appreciated.

[Unregistered]

Hey Mr. Wait Long Long,

Since SIBOR is so cheap now, you can throw a BBQ this weekend. I will bring some sour grapes for dessert if it is ok with you.


Your buddy,

Tan Koo Koo

Dear Mr Tan Koo Koo,

The more the merrier as sour grapes are good for digestion after a hearty BBQ meal.

Thank u.

Your buddy,
Mr Wait long long

[Unregistered]

Dear Mr Tan Koo Koo,

The more the merrier as sour grapes are good for digestion after a hearty BBQ meal.

Thank u.

Your buddy,
Mr Wait long long
Beside sour grapes, do you also need want corn poser?

[Reuters]

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Asia Stocks Rise
Louise Heavens
Reuters
Singapore
Monday, 24 March 2008, Singapore Time

Asian shares rose in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, led by a 4% gain for Taiwan after an opposition win in the presidential election boosted expectations for better trade ties and less political tension with China.

Oil fell back towards the $100 mark a barrel as top producer Saudi Arabia reassured consumers of its plans to boost supply and gold fell back, giving respite to the battered U.S. dollar and easing concerns about inflation.

"Unreasonably high commodities prices are returning to normal and this, along with the perception that U.S. financial markets have hit bottom, is boosting investor sentiment," said Kim Hak-kyun, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities.

Activity was subdued in Asia, however, as markets in many parts of the region as well as in Europe remaining closed for the Easter holiday, with investors waiting for U.S. trade to resume later in the day.

U.S. stock index futures signalled that Wall Street would likely extend last week's gains.

Shares in Seoul added 0.6% and Singapore's benchmark climbed 3.6%. MSCI's index of shares outside Japan rose 1.3%, although it is still down 18% so far this year.

The MSCI ex-Japan index of financials extended gains to notch up a 1.4% rise by 0617 GMT after a report in the New York Times said JPMorgan Chase & Co was in talks to quintuple its offer to buy Bear Stearns Cos to $10 per share, suggesting that there may be more value in financial assets than previously thought.

JPMorgan's original agreement on March 16 to pay $2 per share for the stricken Bear, was widely considered a fire-sale price after the Wall Street bank saw the value of its investments pummelled by a meltdown in the subprime mortgage market.

"It (the new price) could be a relief for financial stocks and maybe a sign that the worst for the mortgage-backed debt market has passed," Chua HakBin, director Asia-Pacific economics and markets at Citigroup.

Tokyo's Nikkei index traded in and out of the red to end the session flat, although gains in financial stocks, such as Mitsubishi UFJ, cushioned the fall. Investors were braced for the upcoming corporate results season.

Yasuo Yamamoto, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute, said sentiment at manufacturers has deteriorated as expected as rises in the yen and crude oil prices have weighed.

"Japanese firms will face a severe situation in terms of profits around the first half of fiscal 2008-09," he said.

Taipei Celebrates

Taiwan markets surged the first trading day after Ma Ying-jeou of the more China-friendly Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT) won the presidential poll, boosting hopes for a greater flow of tourists, trade and capital between Taiwan and China.

Ma has pledged to boost business ties with rival China to jumpstart the economy of the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own.

Taiwan's main TAIEX jumped more than 6% at the open -- its biggest one-day percentage gain in more than seven years -- before easing back to a gain of 4%.

The Taiwan dollar also jumped to a 10-year high of T$30.218 against the U.S. dollar.

Elsewhere in the currency markets the dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 99.87 yen, keeping distance from a 13-year low of 95.77 yen hit on electronic trading platform EBS early last week.

Confidence in U.S. assets was partially restored after the Federal Reserve unveiled steps to relieve the credit crisis.

Among an array of initiatives, the U.S. central bank pushed JPMorgan Chase to acquire Bear Stearns, started lending directly to securities firms for the first time since the Great Depression and lowered the benchmark fed funds rates by 75 basis points to 2.25%.

The yuan hit a fresh post-revaluation high against the dollar at 7.0508 for an eighth straight day on expectations that China would ensure relatively fast appreciation in the near term to fight inflation.

Oil fell nearly $2 dollars, with U.S. light crude for May delivery down $1.16 to $100.66 a barrel. Prices dropped by almost $9, about 8%, last week as investors fled the commodities complex on fears that gains had been overdone, giving a lift to the beleaguered dollar in the process.

Spot gold changed hands at $909.00/909.80.

[Reuters]

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U.S. financial crisis is over, says Richard Bove of Punk Ziegel
Tenzin Pema
Reuters
Friday, 21 March 2008

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Bove being interviewed on Bloomberg TV.

The U.S. financial crisis is over but problems facing the economy are not, said Richard Bove, financial analyst with broker Punk Ziegel, adding that this was a "once in a generation" opportunity to buy bank stocks.

"I do, in fact, believe that the crisis is over. There will be more negative developments but they will be meaningless," Bove wrote in a note to clients.

"This comment sounds ridiculous given the conviction on the part of most commentators that the worst is yet to come; the extent of the decline is unknown; and that the length of the decline is similarly unclear," Bove wrote.

The decline in capital markets has created an opportunity for banks to take market share from the brokers, he said.

"An environment has been created that will pump profits into the American banking system," Bove said.

"Investors are so focused on the potential for loan losses and the flawed valuations created by an obscenely invalid accounting rule supported by a soporific SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) that they are missing this fact."

Bove said in the current crisis, the key event was the insolvency of Bear Stearns Cos Inc..

"This event sent so much fear through the markets that action was taken to solve the crisis," Bove wrote.

"The actions taken by the Federal Reserve were innovative, dramatic, and, in my view, brilliant because they went right to the problem," he said.

On Tuesday, the Fed cut interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, the 6th time in 6 months it has slashed the Fed funds rate target for overnight bank loans, to 2.25%.

The Fed also dusted off a Depression-era rule to let securities firms borrow directly from the Fed through its "discount window."

This decision was announced along with the Fed's promise to underwrite J.P. Morgan Chase & Co's takeover of Bear Stearns for the rock-bottom price of $2 a share.

[Bloomberg]

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U.S. Financial Crisis Is Over, Analyst Richard Bove Says
Aaron Clark and Jeff Kearns
Bloomberg
Friday, 21 March 2008, 1:26 AM Singapore Time

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Bove being interviewed on Bloomberg TV.

The U.S. financial crisis is over and the decline in bank stocks offers a "once in a generation" buying opportunity for investors, according to Richard Bove, the analyst who advised selling financial shares eight months ago before they tumbled.

"The last time an opportunity of this nature existed to buy bank stocks this cheap was in 1990," the Lutz, Florida-based analyst at Punk Ziegel & Co. wrote in a research note. "There will be more negative developments but they will be meaningless."

Bove said the Federal Reserve's rescue of Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-biggest securities firm, and actions to increase banks' access to capital have been "innovative, dramatic" and "brilliant." The analyst advised clients to sell shares of the biggest U.S. securities firms in July. The Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index declined 19% in the next four months. His recommendation to buy Citigroup Inc. in November preceded a 29% plunge in shares of the biggest U.S. bank by assets.

A gauge of financial stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 3.8% today for the biggest gain among 10 industries. The group of banks, brokers and insurers has been the worst performer over the past year, falling 28%.

$195 Billion

The Fed cut its benchmark rate this week by 0.75 percentage point to 2.25, the lowest level in more than three years, after $195 billion in worldwide bank losses related to subprime mortgages. The central bank has cut the target rate for overnight lending six times and slashed the discount rate for direct loans to banks 8 times since the middle of August, when the subprime collapse started to infect markets around the world.

"The actions being taken by the Federal Reserve are being mirrored by the Treasury, which now has finally grasped the scope of the problem," Bove wrote.

Citigroup Inc., the largest bank by assets, jumped 6.7% to $21.77 at 1:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Bank of America Corp., the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, gained 3.7% to $39.99. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm by market value, rallied 3% to $171.49.

Bove recommended 18 July 07 that investors sell shares of Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns. He also downgraded Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

He then upgraded Citigroup to "buy" on 27 Nov 07, according to Bloomberg data. He raised Goldman to "market perform" on 4 Feb 08, preceding a 14% loss in the shares.

Goldman this week reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates as asset writedowns and a drop in fixed- income revenue weren't as bad as expected. Its next-biggest rival, Morgan Stanley, reported earnings that fell less than analysts estimated as record equity sales and trading offset writedowns from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

[Bloomberg]

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'Big Rally' for Stocks to Continue, Jim Rogers Says
Carol Massar and Eric Martin
Bloomberg
Thursday, 20 March 2008

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Jim Rogers, investor and chairman of Beeland Interests Inc.

U.S. stocks, which surged the most in five years yesterday, will likely continue their rally this year because the "out of control" Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates to save investment banks from collapse, investor Jim Rogers said.

The Fed's support is "why we're having a big rally, but that's not going to solve the problem," Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and co-founder of the Quantum Hedge Fund with George Soros, said during an interview with Bloomberg Television from Singapore. "The system is terribly corroded."

The central bank is helping securities firms while delaying and deepening a bear market and recession, said Rogers, who is betting against financial shares. The Fed cut its benchmark for overnight lending between banks yesterday, continuing the most aggressive series of reductions since the rate became an explicit policy target in the late 1980s.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 4.2% yesterday, the most since October 2002. The index this week dropped as much as 19.7% from its October record, nearing the 20% threshold of a bear market, following $195 billion in bank losses from the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market.

No 'Bullets Left'

"What are they going to do when it's down 30% or 40% or 50%?" Rogers said. "They're not going to have any bullets left. They're not going to be able to solve the problems at that point."

Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, traveled the world by motorcycle and car in the 1990s researching investment ideas for his books, which include "Adventure Capitalist" and "Hot Commodities."

Rogers said he continues to short Citigroup Inc., Fannie Mae and investment banks via an exchange-traded fund tracking financial firms and increased his bearish bet last week. Short selling is the sale of borrowed stock in the hope of profiting by repurchasing the securities later at a lower price.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Financials Index, which surged 8.5% yesterday for the steepest advance since March 2000, closed at a five-year low on 17 March 08.

Taiwan stocks are attractive, Rogers said. The nation's Taiex stock index has slumped 3.8% this year, trailing only Brazil and Argentina as the best-performing stock market among the world's 20 largest, according to Bloomberg data.

Halfway Through

Rogers, whose commodities index has climbed more than fivefold since its inception in 1998, said raw materials are about halfway through their rally.

He also said the dollar, which has declined 15% against the euro in the past year, is likely to weaken further. The Fed should stop cutting rates, which would end that decline, Rogers said.

The Fed's mandate is "to keep a sound currency, not to prop up Wall Street," said Rogers. He recommended selling the dollar in a 15 Nov 07 interview. The currency has fallen about 6.6% against the euro since then.

[Bloomberg]

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Barton Biggs Expects 1,000-Point Gain in Dow Average
Brian Sullivan and Michael Patterson
Bloomberg
Friday, 14 March 2008

The decline in U.S. stocks is "way overdone" and the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rally 1,000 points, investor Barton Biggs said.

"We're in a financial panic," Biggs said during a telephone interview with Bloomberg Television from New York. "We're setting up for a really big rally. I don't mean 300 or 400 points on the Dow, I mean 1,000 points on the Dow. I don't know if we're going to get it next week or the week after. But this thing has gotten crazy and is overdone."

Biggs, a former Morgan Stanley strategist who now runs the $1.5 billion hedge fund Traxis Partners LLC, said stock markets from Germany to Hong Kong may bottom out soon after tumbling this year. Biggs's prediction in March 2007 that U.S. stocks were near a low preceded a 16% rally in the Dow average during the next four months. His forecast that the Dow would climb as much as 19% in 2007 overshot its actual gain by almost 13 percentage points.

"We're at a really crucial point," Biggs said. "This is a time to be buying stocks around the world and not to be selling them."

The Dow average has tumbled 16% to 11,951.09 since reaching a record in October after the subprime-mortgage market's collapse caused $195 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses at global financial firms including Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. A 1,000-point gain in the Dow from today's close would amount to an 8.4% rise.

U.S. stocks plunged today for the third time this week, sending the Dow average down 1.6%, after Bear Stearns Cos. required a bailout from the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to avoid collapse.

"Yeah, it's scary. It's always scary at bottoms. But I don't believe the economy is collapsing," Biggs said. "This is not the end of the world."

[Next Insight]

"Ready for a rally" - UBS Investment Research
"Sectors under the most pressure also rebound the most": UBS
Next Insight
Singapore
Thursday, 20 March 2008

Joining a small but growing chorus of bulls, UBS issued a report yesterday (19 March 2008) saying “there is reason for optimism in global equity markets.”

It noted that US monetary and fiscal policy response has been aggressive and more is likely on the way.

”Coupled with attractive valuations, low interest rates, and reasonable earnings growth, we believe prospects for a more sustainable rally in equities appear good.”

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UBS has an overweight rating on the US, neutral on Global Emerging Markets and Japan, and underweight on Europe and UK.

Referring to the all the angst currently, UBS said there is a silver lining.

While fundamental pressures on the US economy stemming from the decline in house prices persist, the policy reaction to financial market turmoil has become increasingly aggressive, particularly from the Federal Reserve.

The uncertainty that has depressed overall equity market valuations is likely to dissipate, leading to a more sustainable rally than has appeared probable in recent months. “Thus, we are getting ready for a shift in markets to a more positive assessment of near term prospects based on the policy response we’ve seen so far and what may yet be coming.”

In deciding how to position oneself for the rally, UBS noted that the historical pattern of a market rebound suggests that the sectors that have been under the most pressure also rebound the most.

“Therefore, we have lifted our allocation to Financials and Consumer Discretionary.”

Looking back over previous market sell-offs (-10% from 12-month peak) that were followed by a sharp rebound (greater than 10% in three months), UBS found that the sectors that led markets lower also tend to lead in the recovery.

“This is an intuitive result insofar as a rebound in markets is probably driven by a change in fundamental expectations that allows the most impaired sectors to recover, while short-covering in bombed out sectors also reverses course.”

UBS added: “We believe that markets are poised for a broad recovery in valuations driven by a decline in risk premiums. These moves are likely to benefit the whole market.”

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STI's 52-week range: 2,756-3,906




http://www.ubs.com/1/live/images/uco24.gif
UBS Investment Research
Global Equity Strategy
Jeffrey Palma, William Darwin and Jennifer Delaney
Wednesday, 19 March 2008

Ready for a rally
- Finding the silver lining
Despite higher volatility, largely reflecting financial market stability concerns and expectations for a US recession, there is reason for optimism in global equity markets. Monetary and fiscal policy response has been aggressive and more is likely on the way. Thus, a major source of ‘tail’ risk appears to have been removed. Coupled with attractive valuations, low interest rates, and reasonable earnings growth, we believe prospects for a more sustainable rally in equities appear good.

- Broad market support
Sectors that underperform in a sell-off also tend to recover the most. Thus, we add to positions Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Even so, we believe a decline in risk premiums is likely to provide a boost to market valuations making a broadbased recovery. To reflect this more outlook we trim our defensive exposure (Healthcare and Consumer Staples), which we upgraded in January.

- Regions and stocks
We retain our regional allocations, where we are overweight in the US, neutral in GEM and Japan, and underweight Europe and UK. We are making several changes to our Global Top 40 stock list: Adding: Prudential Financial, News Corp, Barclays, and BNP Paribas. We are removing State Street, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, BAT, and Novartis.

- Lingering challenges
We recognize that a move to become less defensive could still be early given that uncertainty could persist. Details of policy response are still unknown and global growth is still under pressure, which may keep earnings expectations muted.

........
........

[Unregistered]

Beside sour grapes, do you also need want corn poser?
I will bring some mad bulls for the BBQ. But be warned, you can contract Mad Bull Disease after going near them.

[Unregistered]

Beside sour grapes, do you also need want corn poser?

I will bring some mad bulls for the BBQ. But be warned, you can contract Mad Bull Disease after going near them.
Corn posers for who? For born losers?

[Reuters]

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JPMorgan raises Bear Stearns bid to $10/share
Chris Reiter
Reuters
Monday, 24 March 2008, 10:00am U.S. EDT

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A Bear Stearns sign is pictured at its office in Hong Kong's Central district 17 March 2008. - Photo: Victor Fraile, Reuters

JPMorgan Chase & Co said on Monday that it raised its all-stock offer for Bear Stearns Cos

to about $10 a share, roughly five times its original offer.

Under the revised terms of the deal, each share of Bear Stearns common stock will be exchanged for 0.21753 shares of JPMorgan common stock.

JPMorgan will also purchase 95 million new Bear Stearns shares, representing 39.5% of the investment bank's outstanding common stock. JPMorgan is buying the shares at the same price as its takeover offer and expects to complete the deal by April 8.

The boards of both companies have approved the revised takeover offer and the share purchase agreement.

JPMorgan's original agreement on March 16 to pay $2 per share in stock for Bear was widely considered a fire-sale price for the 85-year-old Wall Street investment bank. Bear collapsed as large subprime mortgage losses and falling confidence in the company prompted a run on the bank.

Bear shares surged more than 65% to $10.60 on the news of the higher bid.

[Reuters]

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February existing home sales rise
Chris Reiter
Reuters
Monday, 24 March 2008, 10:30am U.S. EDT

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A man looks around a home up for sale in Stockton, California 2 February 2008. - Photo: Kimberly White, Reuters

The pace of existing home sales in the United States rose in February to a 5.03 million-unit annual rate while prices took a record fall, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on Monday that painted a mixed picture for the housing market.

While February broke a six-month streak of decreasing home sales, it also saw an 8.2% decline in median home prices from a year ago. That drop to $195,900 was the sharpest since the trade group began keeping records in 1968.

Economists polled by Reuters were expecting home resales to fall to a 4.85 million-unit pace from the 4.89 million-unit rate for January, which remained unrevised.

The U.S. dollar rose and U.S. Treasury prices extended their drop to session lows after the stronger-than-expected data.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the home price decline probably spurred sales in some regions.

"Falling prices increase affordability but at the same time there is a psychological element of buyers who are sitting on the fence while prices drop," he said.

The inventory of homes for sale fell 3% to 4.03 million units at the end of February, which represents a 9.6 months' supply at the current sales pace.

Only the West saw sales decrease, with sales down 1.1%, while the other regions saw sales rise. Home sales were up 11.3% in the Northeast, 2.5% in the Midwest and 2.1% in the South.

[AP]

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Stocks climb as JPMorgan raises Bear bid
Tim Paradis
Business Writer
Associated Press
Monday, 24 March 2008, 11:30am U.S. EDT

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Traders Marshall Ryan, center, and Thomas Kay, right, wait for the Visa Inc. IPO to begin trading on New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday 19 March 2008. Visa Inc. shares soared more than 30% in their stock market debut Wednesday as investors latched on to the largest IPO in U.S. history. - Photo: Richard Drew, AP

Wall Street extended its big advance Monday as investors applauded a new agreement that will give Bear Stearns Cos. shareholders five times the payout than was outlined in a JPMorgan Chase & Co. buyout deal a week ago. Investors were also pleased by a stronger-than-expected housing report. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped about 200 points.

Stocks rose after JPMorgan said the company will boost its offer to $10 per share from $2. The revised plan is aimed at soothing Bear Stearns shareholders upset over JPMorgan's earlier offer, which was made at the behest of the Federal Reserve when Bear Stearns was near collapse.

Bear Stearns shares jumped $5.84, or 98%, to $11.80, while JPMorgan rose $1.19, or 2.6%, to $47.16.

Beyond the troubles of the financials, Wall Street was examining the housing sector — the root of much of investors' current angst. A real estate trade group said sales of existing homes rose rather than declined in February, as had been expected.

The Fed's move and even the housing figures appeared to alleviate some of Wall Street's concerns about souring mortgage debt and lenders' resulting hesitance to grant loans of any sort. The latest Bear Stearns deal signals that investors' losses might not be as sizable as feared.

"The reason we've rallied the last three or four days is people are saying 'Hey, even if this paper is worth less than people think, the Fed is willing come in a buy it at some level,'" said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

In late morning trading, the Dow rose 199.61, or 1.61%, to 12,560.93 after rising more than 260 points on Thursday, the last day of trading before the Easter weekend.

Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 20.76, or 1.56%, to 1,350.27, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 54.03, or 2.39%, to 2,312.14.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 18.15, or 2.66%, to 699.57.

Monday's gains follow a volatile but ultimately strong week for the markets. The Dow and the S&P each showed gains of more than 3% for the week, while the Nasdaq advanced more than 2%.

Bond prices fell sharply. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.48% from 3.34% late Thursday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Light, sweet crude fell 39 cents to $101.45 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The housing sector, which has offered a steady drumbeat of mostly negative news in recent months, gave investors a welcome lift. The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose by 2.9% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million units. It was the biggest increase in a year and Wall Street had expected a slight decline. Still, the median home price fell by the largest amount on record.

Smith said further readings on the housing sector, including a report on home prices due Tuesday, could help determine whether Wall Street's enthusiasm will continue or prove short-lived. Further weakness in housing, he said, could mean banks will continue to struggle with a locked-up credit market.

Still, the Fed's move to broker the Bear Stearns buyout has allowed investors the sense that not all the debt guaranteed by mortgages is "nuclear waste." It will be some time before Wall Street knows whether the write-downs on mortgages already taken will be sufficient.

"The fact that the Fed is willing to come in and buy it at some level makes people think 'OK, it's not zero,'" Smith said, referring to the troubled debt.

Beyond housing, a report from Tiffany & Co. helped assuage some concerns about the health of high-end consumers. The jeweler said loans it made to a diamond company weighed on its fourth-quarter profit, but that earnings excluding items were in line with Wall Street's expectations. Tiffany jumped $5.19, or 13%, to $43.79.

Walgreen Co. rose $1.95, or 5.3%, to $38.73 after the drugstore chain said its second-quarter earnings rose 5 percent as it controlled expenses to offset slower sales growth.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 490.2 million shares.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 0.02%. Markets in Europe and in Hong Kong were closed for Easter Monday.

[AP]

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JPMorgan raises Bear purchase price
Joe Bel Bruno and Stephen Bernard
Business Writers
Associated Press
New York, New York, U.S.
Monday, 24 March 2008, 11:35am U.S. EDT

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080324/capt.8499b79a62f54cc49454de95003d5c9e.bear_stearns_nyml104.jpg
The Bear Stearns headquarters, center, and the JP Morgan headquarters, right, are shown on Monday, 24 March 2008 in New York. JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its offer Monday for Bear Stearns Cos. to $10 per share. - Photo: Mark Lennihan, AP

JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its offer Monday for Bear Stearns Cos. to $10 per share from a bargain-basement price of $2 per share, hoping to assuage shareholders of the ailing investment bank.

Bear Stearns shares, which had already been trading above the initial offer price, surged above the new bid.

The move was clearly aimed at diffusing a backlash among Bear Stearns shareholders who felt the original deal undervalued the 85-year-old institution. JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon spent most of the week trying to woo Bear Stearns employees, who collectively own about a third of the company.

"We believe the amended terms are fair to all sides and reflect the value and risks of the Bear Stearns franchise," Dimon said in a statement, "and bring more certainty for our respective shareholders, clients, and the marketplace."

The new deal values Bear Stearns at about $1.19 billion — still a fraction of what the company was worth before its sudden near-collapse earlier this month. It also includes a provision for JPMorgan to buy 95 million new Bear Stearns shares immediately, which gives it a 39.5% stake in the company before shareholders have even voted.

The amended offer was Dimon's attempt to ward off any competition, and quickly move on with the acquisition. The two sides also changed certain guarantees JPMorgan made related to Bear Stearns' positions.

The new agreement also calls for the Federal Reserve — which helped broker the emergency deal to save Bear Stearns from failure — to provide a $30 billion term loan with portfolio assets put up as collateral. Those assets will be held by a newly created company managed by BlackRock Inc.

If any part of the portfolio defaults, JPMorgan will be on the hook to cover the first $1 billion in losses. As the assets are paid off, the Fed will receive principal plus any gains.

The Fed said the action is being taken with the support of the Treasury Department to "bolster market liquidity and promote orderly market functioning."

Alan Schwartz, Bear Stearns' embattled president and chief executive, has been vilified within the company for the past week for selling out too low. The company's 14,000 shareholders — most of whom depended on Bear Stearns' stock as part of their retirement plans — are facing significant job cuts if the deal goes through.

He said the substantial share issuance to JPMorgan "was a necessary condition" to maintaining Bear Stearns' financial stability.

"Our board of directors believes that the amended terms provide both significantly greater value to our shareholders, many of whom are Bear Stearns employees, and enhanced coverage and certainty for our customers, counterparties, and lenders," he said in a statement.

Bear shares had been much higher than its deal price last week in anticipation of a new buyout agreement. The stock surged on Monday, rising $5.34 to $11.30 after the new agreement was unveiled.

JPMorgan shares also rose, adding $1.79, or 3.7%, to $47.76 in morning trading.

[NPR]

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Fed Weighs Unprecedented Move to Calm Markets
National Public Radio
Monday, 24 March 2008, 8:09 AM U.S. EDT

The Federal Reserve and the central banks of Europe and the U.K. may be considering a radical move to stabilize the financial markets: using taxpayer money to buy back high-risk subprime mortgage-backed securities -- those at the heart of the housing crisis.

[Unregistered]

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Fed Weighs Unprecedented Move to Calm Markets
National Public Radio
Monday, 24 March 2008, 8:09 AM U.S. EDT

The Federal Reserve and the central banks of Europe and the U.K. may be considering a radical move to stabilize the financial markets: using taxpayer money to buy back high-risk subprime mortgage-backed securities -- those at the heart of the housing crisis.
The fat cats being bailed out with poor taxpayers money. Encouraging people to make risky bets and then bail them out. Wah what a plan!

[Unregistered]

Wall Street Firms Cut 34,000 Jobs, Most Since 2001 Dot-Com Bust

By Yalman Onaran

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street banks hit by mortgage losses and writedowns have cut more than 34,000 jobs in the past nine months, the most since the dot-com boom fizzled in 2001.

Citigroup Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Morgan Stanley are among the firms that have disclosed headcount reductions so far. After the Internet bubble burst, 39,800 jobs were eliminated during the same period; the number climbed to 90,000 in the next two years, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

The collapse of the subprime mortgage market last year and the ensuing credit contraction have saddled the world's largest financial institutions with at least $200 billion of writedowns and losses. Bear Stearns Cos., once the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm, became the emblem of panic on Wall Street two weeks ago, when it was forced to submit to an emergency takeover backed by the Federal Reserve as clients and lenders deserted the company. More bank losses are likely, according to analysts.

``This crisis is much worse than 2001 and we don't know how long it's going to last,'' said Jo Bennett, a partner at executive search firm Battalia Winston International in New York. Job cuts ``could be more than 100,000 in a few years.''

Securities firms started eliminating positions in mortgage departments as early as last July, when rising delinquencies on home loans to borrowers with poor credit histories led to a decline in the prices of bonds tied to the loans. Between July and December, almost 17,000 jobs were lost, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Shuttered Lenders

Lehman's home-loan unit, BNC Mortgage LLC, employed 1,600 people before the firm closed it down in August. Mortgage lender First Franklin Financial had 2,300 employees when it was acquired by Merrill Lynch & Co. in January 2007. Merrill shuttered the business this month. All told, at least 100 mortgage companies have suspended operations, closed or been sold since the start of 2007.

This year, banks including Lehman, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have been winnowing out employees in fixed income trading, securitization, asset management and investment banking. Administrative and technology staff have also been let go. So far, Citigroup has eliminated 1.7 percent of its workforce, while Lehman has chopped 18 percent. Morgan Stanley has cut 6.2 percent, and Merrill has eliminated 4.5 percent.

The bursting of what Glenn Reynolds of CreditSights Inc. has called the ``securitization bubble'' is affecting other industries. Lawyers who helped create mortgage-backed bonds, realtors who sold more houses as home ownership in the U.S. rose and mortgage brokers who found new customers as lending standards were relaxed are now looking for work, according to Jeanne Branthover, a managing director at Boyden Global Executive Search in New York.

Black Cars

``This is filtering down to the vendor,'' Branthover said. ``The firms Wall Street was using are also feeling the pain.''

Even the black cars that shuttle bankers and traders home from their Manhattan offices are seeing demand for their services dwindle, and the firms may have to fire some drivers, said Battalia Winston's Bennett.

Bear Stearns, once the biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage securities, agreed to be acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. on March 16 after a run on the securities firm left it facing potential bankruptcy. While JPMorgan hasn't said how many Bear Stearns employees may lose their jobs, half of the 14,000 people at the company may be let go, estimates Boyden's Branthover. The two firms have overlapping businesses and JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, may shut down some Bear Stearns units, she said.

Fed Action

Revenue for Wall Street brokers may decline as much as 30 percent this year, Standard & Poor's said March 21, when it cut the outlook for credit ratings at Lehman and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm. While the Federal Reserve's March 16 decision to open a lending facility for brokers may ease cash concerns, ``persisting market turmoil'' may still erode brokers' earnings, S&P said.

Goldman said in January that it may fire 1,500 people to weed out underperformers. On March 18, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said headcount was unchanged during the first quarter and might grow in the ``low to mid-single digits'' this year, mostly because of hiring outside the U.S.

Some firms haven't fully disclosed their job cuts because they don't want to appear financially weak, according to Battalia Winston's Bennett. ``They're all dribbling people out the door, so the numbers don't show the true extent of the problem yet,'' said Bennett.

Ousted CEOs

Merrill, which didn't announce job reductions last year, said on March 5 that 70 percent of the staff at its First Franklin mortgage unit had been eliminated since July. Merrill is a passive, minority investor in Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News.

Senior Wall Street executives haven't escaped unscathed. Six chief executive officers, eight presidents or other officers and at least 19 division heads have lost their jobs as a result of the subprime meltdown. Citigroup CEO Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince, Merrill CEO Stan O'Neal, Bear Stearns CEO James ``Jimmy'' Cayne and UBS AG CEO Peter Wuffli were the highest- ranking casualties.

Compared with the fallout after public markets slammed shut on speculative Internet companies in 2001, more high-level Wall Street executives are losing jobs in the current crisis, according to Gustavo Dolfino, president of New York-based executive search firm Whiterock Group LLC. When the dot-com boom ended, the people who lost jobs were predominantly rank and file, he said.

Human Capital

``Clearly there's a trend to make people pay,'' Dolfino said. ``Firms have also been moving lower-ranked staff from the U.S. to Asia, where they need more hands. Top people don't want to move as easily.''

Boyden's Branthover said she doesn't expect this cycle of job cuts to reach post-2001 levels. One of the lessons the firms learned from that period is that it's costly and difficult to replace human capital lost during times of distress, she said.

``A lot of support staff will be cut because those are easier to replace when the business turns around,'' she said.

The following table shows jobs eliminated by the biggest banks and securities firms since the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in July 2007. The figures are based on company disclosures.


Firm Positions Cut

Citigroup 6,200

Lehman Brothers 4,990

Bank of America 3,650

Morgan Stanley 2,940

Washington Mutual 2,600

Merrill Lynch 2,220

HSBC 1,650

Bear Stearns 1,550

WestLB 1,530

UBS 1,500

Goldman Sachs 1,500*

National City 900

Credit Suisse 820

Royal Bank of Canada 500

Fortis 500

Wells Fargo 500

Wachovia 443

Deutsche Bank 370

JPMorgan Chase 100
_____
TOTAL 34,463

[Unregistered]

China Stocks Drop for First Time in Four Days; Banks Fall

By Zhang Shidong

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- [b]China stocks fell for the first time in four days, led by financial companies, on speculation the government will curb the growth in housing prices.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation's biggest listed lender, and China Vanke Co., the No. 1 developer, dropped the most in a week.

Oil-related companies slumped, led by PetroChina -- which slid to the lowest since its mainland debut in November -- after announcing disappointing 2007 earnings and as crude prices declined for a third day.

``Lower oil prices have brought pressure to the not-too- solid earnings of PetroChina,'' said Wu Kan, who manages the equivalent of $41 million at Dazhong Insurance Co. in Shanghai. ``The oil sector doesn't seem to be supported fundamentally now.''

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, dropped 90.44, or 2.2 percent, to 3,947.39 as of 1:28 p.m. local time, set to snap a three-day, 7.3 percent advance.

The gauge has lost 32 percent since its Oct. 16 peak on concern the government will raise interest rates to tame 11-year high inflation. Last week, the People's Bank of China told lenders to set aside more deposits in reserve for the second time this year after raising interest rates six times in 2007.

Housing Prices

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the nation's biggest listed lender, lost 0.10 yuan, or 1.8 percent, to 5.60. Vanke, the largest publicly traded property developer, dropped 0.55 yuan, or 2.6 percent, to 23.80.

China's government will use ``economic tools'' to prevent growth in housing prices from further accelerating, China Youth Daily reported, citing housing minister Jiang Weixin.

The government will increase the supply of low-cost housing and raise allowances for the poor to help bring prices down, it reported.

PetroChina slumped 0.94 yuan, or 4.4 percent, to 20.10, set for the lowest close since it began trading in Shanghai on Nov. 5. The company's 2007 profit rose 2 percent from a year earlier, trailing analysts' estimates.

China Oilfield Services Ltd., the drilling unit of the nation's third-largest oil producer, lost 1.15 yuan, or 4.6 percent, to 23.89. Sinopec, the country's largest refiner, lost 0.43 yuan or 3.1 percent, to 13.38.

Crude oil declined as much as 1.6 percent to $100.20 a barrel in electronic trading today on concern an economic slowdown in the U.S. will reduce demand. The contract fell 7.6 percent last week.

Taiwan Election

Ports and exporters, particularly those based in the eastern city of Xiamen including Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., gained after Taiwanese elections boosted prospects of improved trade and transportation links with China.

Shanghai Port, the operator of the world's second-busiest container harbor, rose 0.26 yuan, or 3.6 percent, to 7.40. Xiamen Overseas Chinese Electronic Co., an electronic product manufacturer, gained 0.02 yuan, or 0.3 percent, to 7.38.

Kuomintang candidate Ma Ying-jeou won Taiwan's March 22 presidential election on pledges to begin direct flights in two months to China and work toward a common market with the mainland. Taiwan has restricted direct shipping, air and postal links with the mainland since the Kuomintang retreated to the island in 1949 after losing a civil war to the communists.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, dropped 2.7 percent to 3,694.26. The Shenzhen Composite Index lost 0.8 percent to 1,163.17.

COFCO Property (Group) Co., the property unit of the country's biggest grain trader, plunged 2.66 yuan, or the 10 percent daily limit, to 23.93 after a suspension of five weeks. The company said it plans to buy nine property units from the parent and is studying the asset injection through private equity sales.

[Unregistered]

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Fed Weighs Unprecedented Move to Calm Markets
National Public Radio
Monday, 24 March 2008, 8:09 AM U.S. EDT

The Federal Reserve and the central banks of Europe and the U.K. may be considering a radical move to stabilize the financial markets: using taxpayer money to buy back high-risk subprime mortgage-backed securities -- those at the heart of the housing crisis.

The fat cats being bailed out with poor taxpayers money. Encouraging people to make risky bets and then bail them out. Wah what a plan!
But it's still a plan, isn't it?
So it's good right?

[Unregistered]

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JPMorgan raises Bear purchase price
Joe Bel Bruno and Stephen Bernard
Business Writers
Associated Press
New York, New York, U.S.
Monday, 24 March 2008, 11:35am U.S. EDT

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080324/capt.8499b79a62f54cc49454de95003d5c9e.bear_stearns_nyml104.jpg
The Bear Stearns headquarters, center, and the JP Morgan headquarters, right, are shown on Monday, 24 March 2008 in New York. JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its offer Monday for Bear Stearns Cos. to $10 per share. - Photo: Mark Lennihan, AP

JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its offer Monday for Bear Stearns Cos. to $10 per share from a bargain-basement price of $2 per share, hoping to assuage shareholders of the ailing investment bank.

Bear Stearns shares, which had already been trading above the initial offer price, surged above the new bid.

The move was clearly aimed at diffusing a backlash among Bear Stearns shareholders who felt the original deal undervalued the 85-year-old institution. JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon spent most of the week trying to woo Bear Stearns employees, who collectively own about a third of the company.

"We believe the amended terms are fair to all sides and reflect the value and risks of the Bear Stearns franchise," Dimon said in a statement, "and bring more certainty for our respective shareholders, clients, and the marketplace."

The new deal values Bear Stearns at about $1.19 billion — still a fraction of what the company was worth before its sudden near-collapse earlier this month. It also includes a provision for JPMorgan to buy 95 million new Bear Stearns shares immediately, which gives it a 39.5% stake in the company before shareholders have even voted.

The amended offer was Dimon's attempt to ward off any competition, and quickly move on with the acquisition. The two sides also changed certain guarantees JPMorgan made related to Bear Stearns' positions.

The new agreement also calls for the Federal Reserve — which helped broker the emergency deal to save Bear Stearns from failure — to provide a $30 billion term loan with portfolio assets put up as collateral. Those assets will be held by a newly created company managed by BlackRock Inc.

If any part of the portfolio defaults, JPMorgan will be on the hook to cover the first $1 billion in losses. As the assets are paid off, the Fed will receive principal plus any gains.

The Fed said the action is being taken with the support of the Treasury Department to "bolster market liquidity and promote orderly market functioning."

Alan Schwartz, Bear Stearns' embattled president and chief executive, has been vilified within the company for the past week for selling out too low. The company's 14,000 shareholders — most of whom depended on Bear Stearns' stock as part of their retirement plans — are facing significant job cuts if the deal goes through.

He said the substantial share issuance to JPMorgan "was a necessary condition" to maintaining Bear Stearns' financial stability.

"Our board of directors believes that the amended terms provide both significantly greater value to our shareholders, many of whom are Bear Stearns employees, and enhanced coverage and certainty for our customers, counterparties, and lenders," he said in a statement.

Bear shares had been much higher than its deal price last week in anticipation of a new buyout agreement. The stock surged on Monday, rising $5.34 to $11.30 after the new agreement was unveiled.

JPMorgan shares also rose, adding $1.79, or 3.7%, to $47.76 in morning trading.
Congrats to those who bought Bear shares at around $3 the last few days.

[Unregistered]

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Singapore interest rates likely to fall further
Fed cut and robust Sing$ could push interbank lending rate below 1%
Nicholas Fang
The Straits Times
Monday, 24 March 2008

Singaporeans can expect cheaper mortgages but lower savings and fixed deposit rates in the months to come.

This is after a move by the United States Federal Reserve to slash a key US interest rate last week.

The Fed had cut three-quarters of a point off its federal funds rate, bringing it to 2.25%, to fight a mushrooming credit crisis and a slowing US economy.

Economists in Singapore said the lowering of the Fed funds rate will have a knock- on effect in the Republic.

The Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), or the rate at which banks lend to one another, tends to track the Fed rate.

Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: 'For Singapore rates, the trend is downwards. We expect the Fed to cut its rate to 1% and Singapore should follow with a lag.'

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He lowered his forecast for the Sibor, estimating it would fall to as low as 0.75% by the end of the third quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 1%.

A recent report by DBS Group Research also forecast the Sibor would fall, to 0.83% in the second quarter, and remain at that rate through the second half before rising next year.

The three-month Sibor fell to a 12-month low of 1.25% last Monday, before recovering to 1.425% on Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday public holiday.

Mr Kit said Singapore rates were also affected by the Singapore dollar's appreciation against the US currency. He said the Singdollar is most probably at the top end of the secret trade-weighted band within which the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) guides the currency.

'With the Singdollar expected to continue appreciating, MAS will aim to moderate it by flooding the market with liquidity, which will in turn pressure interest rates downwards,' he said.

OCBC economist Selena Ling said another consequence of the strong Singdollar would be a high inflow of foreign capital into the Republic. 'This can also contribute to lower interest rates.'

For consumers, the net result is both good and bad.

Banks recently embarked on a mortgage loan war, with Maybank firing the first salvo last month with an aggressive three-year, fixed-rate package offered at 1.68% for the first year.

DBS Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) have also unveiled attractive packages. UOB has one that offers a zero rate in the first year.

And with Sibor-linked home loan package rates likely to head south too, it could be a good time to refinance mortgage loans, experts said.

A DBS spokesman said: 'DBS offers transparent mortgage rates pegged to the Sibor and the CPF Ordinary Account rate, so our rates will move in tandem with market forces.'

But there is also the possibility that savings and fixed deposit rates could slump as interest rates go down.

OCBC's vice-president for group wealth management, Mr Fabian Lum, said the bank would review its deposit rates to keep them in line with prevailing market conditions.

And while the bank has not changed its savings rate recently, it lowered its 12-month fixed deposit rate for amounts between $50,000 and $1 million to 1.2% a year from 1.4% earlier this month.

DBS said that its savings deposit rates had not been adjusted since 2005, but added that its fixed deposit rates are always pegged to the interbank rate and would thus be adjusted accordingly.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said that the low interest rates did not reflect a lack of liquidity on the part of banks. 'The loans-deposit ratio is still very strong, so banks definitely have the money to lend,' he said.

'But I think there is greater caution now, after what has happened in the US with the sub-prime crisis, and people are much more cautious nowadays when it comes to borrowing and lending money.'
Come on, drop it, crash it.
Everyone wants SIBOR to tank to 0.75%.

[Unregistered]

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U.S. Financial Crisis Is Over, Analyst Richard Bove Says
Aaron Clark and Jeff Kearns
Bloomberg
Friday, 21 March 2008, 1:26 AM Singapore Time

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Bove being interviewed on Bloomberg TV.

The U.S. financial crisis is over and the decline in bank stocks offers a "once in a generation" buying opportunity for investors, according to Richard Bove, the analyst who advised selling financial shares eight months ago before they tumbled.

"The last time an opportunity of this nature existed to buy bank stocks this cheap was in 1990," the Lutz, Florida-based analyst at Punk Ziegel & Co. wrote in a research note. "There will be more negative developments but they will be meaningless."

Bove said the Federal Reserve's rescue of Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-biggest securities firm, and actions to increase banks' access to capital have been "innovative, dramatic" and "brilliant." The analyst advised clients to sell shares of the biggest U.S. securities firms in July. The Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index declined 19% in the next four months. His recommendation to buy Citigroup Inc. in November preceded a 29% plunge in shares of the biggest U.S. bank by assets.

A gauge of financial stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 3.8% today for the biggest gain among 10 industries. The group of banks, brokers and insurers has been the worst performer over the past year, falling 28%.

$195 Billion

The Fed cut its benchmark rate this week by 0.75 percentage point to 2.25, the lowest level in more than three years, after $195 billion in worldwide bank losses related to subprime mortgages. The central bank has cut the target rate for overnight lending six times and slashed the discount rate for direct loans to banks 8 times since the middle of August, when the subprime collapse started to infect markets around the world.

"The actions being taken by the Federal Reserve are being mirrored by the Treasury, which now has finally grasped the scope of the problem," Bove wrote.

Citigroup Inc., the largest bank by assets, jumped 6.7% to $21.77 at 1:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Bank of America Corp., the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, gained 3.7% to $39.99. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm by market value, rallied 3% to $171.49.

Bove recommended 18 July 07 that investors sell shares of Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns. He also downgraded Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

He then upgraded Citigroup to "buy" on 27 Nov 07, according to Bloomberg data. He raised Goldman to "market perform" on 4 Feb 08, preceding a 14% loss in the shares.

Goldman this week reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates as asset writedowns and a drop in fixed- income revenue weren't as bad as expected. Its next-biggest rival, Morgan Stanley, reported earnings that fell less than analysts estimated as record equity sales and trading offset writedowns from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.
No wonder shares are going up. The crisis is already over.

[Unregistered]

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'Big Rally' for Stocks to Continue, Jim Rogers Says
Carol Massar and Eric Martin
Bloomberg
Thursday, 20 March 2008

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Jim Rogers, investor and chairman of Beeland Interests Inc.

U.S. stocks, which surged the most in five years yesterday, will likely continue their rally this year because the "out of control" Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates to save investment banks from collapse, investor Jim Rogers said.

The Fed's support is "why we're having a big rally, but that's not going to solve the problem," Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and co-founder of the Quantum Hedge Fund with George Soros, said during an interview with Bloomberg Television from Singapore. "The system is terribly corroded."

The central bank is helping securities firms while delaying and deepening a bear market and recession, said Rogers, who is betting against financial shares. The Fed cut its benchmark for overnight lending between banks yesterday, continuing the most aggressive series of reductions since the rate became an explicit policy target in the late 1980s.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 4.2% yesterday, the most since October 2002. The index this week dropped as much as 19.7% from its October record, nearing the 20% threshold of a bear market, following $195 billion in bank losses from the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market.

No 'Bullets Left'

"What are they going to do when it's down 30% or 40% or 50%?" Rogers said. "They're not going to have any bullets left. They're not going to be able to solve the problems at that point."

Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, traveled the world by motorcycle and car in the 1990s researching investment ideas for his books, which include "Adventure Capitalist" and "Hot Commodities."

Rogers said he continues to short Citigroup Inc., Fannie Mae and investment banks via an exchange-traded fund tracking financial firms and increased his bearish bet last week. Short selling is the sale of borrowed stock in the hope of profiting by repurchasing the securities later at a lower price.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Financials Index, which surged 8.5% yesterday for the steepest advance since March 2000, closed at a five-year low on 17 March 08.

Taiwan stocks are attractive, Rogers said. The nation's Taiex stock index has slumped 3.8% this year, trailing only Brazil and Argentina as the best-performing stock market among the world's 20 largest, according to Bloomberg data.

Halfway Through

Rogers, whose commodities index has climbed more than fivefold since its inception in 1998, said raw materials are about halfway through their rally.

He also said the dollar, which has declined 15% against the euro in the past year, is likely to weaken further. The Fed should stop cutting rates, which would end that decline, Rogers said.

The Fed's mandate is "to keep a sound currency, not to prop up Wall Street," said Rogers. He recommended selling the dollar in a 15 Nov 07 interview. The currency has fallen about 6.6% against the euro since then.
Hello Jim Rogers supporters, Jim has asked you to buy equities now. Do it now! Don't wait.

[Unregistered]

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February existing home sales rise
Chris Reiter
Reuters
Monday, 24 March 2008, 10:30am U.S. EDT

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A man looks around a home up for sale in Stockton, California 2 February 2008. - Photo: Kimberly White, Reuters

The pace of existing home sales in the United States rose in February to a 5.03 million-unit annual rate while prices took a record fall, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on Monday that painted a mixed picture for the housing market.

While February broke a six-month streak of decreasing home sales, it also saw an 8.2% decline in median home prices from a year ago. That drop to $195,900 was the sharpest since the trade group began keeping records in 1968.

Economists polled by Reuters were expecting home resales to fall to a 4.85 million-unit pace from the 4.89 million-unit rate for January, which remained unrevised.

The U.S. dollar rose and U.S. Treasury prices extended their drop to session lows after the stronger-than-expected data.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the home price decline probably spurred sales in some regions.

"Falling prices increase affordability but at the same time there is a psychological element of buyers who are sitting on the fence while prices drop," he said.

The inventory of homes for sale fell 3% to 4.03 million units at the end of February, which represents a 9.6 months' supply at the current sales pace.

Only the West saw sales decrease, with sales down 1.1%, while the other regions saw sales rise. Home sales were up 11.3% in the Northeast, 2.5% in the Midwest and 2.1% in the South.
Home sale has increased. Start buying now.

[AFP]

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STI closes 3.64% higher
Agence France-Presse
Singapore
Monday, 24 March 2008

Singapore share prices closed 3.64% higher on Monday on bargain hunting after the market's recent sharp losses amid fears of a recession in the United States, dealers said.

The Straits Times Index jumped 102.88 points to 2,927.79 on volume of 1.22 billion Singapore shares worth 1.49 billion Singapore dollars.

Rising issues overwhelmed decliners 518 to 160 with 992 issues unchanged.

'Barring unexpected nasty shocks from the US, the local market should renew its recovery past 3,000 to 3,100 (points), which is a modest target,' said Mr Najeeb Jarhom, head of research for retail investors at Amfraser Securities.

Investors took their cue from Wall Street's performance before it closing for a public holiday on Friday, as the Dow jumped 260 points on bargain-hunting and a milder-than-expected drop in a regional manufacturing report.

The Singapore market was also closed on Friday for a public holiday.

Mr Jarhom said the 3,000-point mark should not be a strong resistance level 'if the coming reporting season for first quarter 2008 and fiscal year ending March contains pleasant earnings surprises from blue chip companies'.

But caution may continue to cap market gains, given uncertainties on how deep the US recession would be and how significantly it would pull down the global economy, he said.

Banking shares led gainers, with DBS Group rising 90 cents to 18.00, United Overseas Bank up 58 cents at 18.72 dollars and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp gaining 11 cents to 7.86 dollars.

Property heavyweights were also higher, with CapitaLand up 42 cents at 6.10 dollars, City Developments up 69 cents at 10.44 dollars and Keppel Land rising 26 cents to 5.34 dollars.

Among blue chips, Singapore Airlines rose 54 cents to 15.02 dollars, Singapore Telecommunications up four cents at 3.39 dollars and Singapore Exchange finished 50 cents higher at 6.90 dollars.

[Unregistered]

Come on, drop it, crash it.
Everyone wants SIBOR to tank to 0.75%.

Then what will happen to the sour grapes' fixed deposits they placed in the bank?

The sour grapes already don't own properties and are very sour.

Then they invested in shares and the stock market crashed by 30%, which made them more sour.

On top of that, property prices are not correcting and in fact still inching up, which makes them even more sour.

Now the miserable interest rate in the bank is going to go lower?

[Unregistered]

Then what will happen to the sour grapes' fixed deposits they placed in the bank?

The sour grapes already don't own properties and are very sour.

Then they invested in shares and the stock market crashed by 30%, which made them more sour.

On top of that, property prices are not correcting and in fact still inching up, which makes them even more sour.

Now the miserable interest rate in the bank is going to go lower?
Err ... dunno man ... dun ask me ... I'm just repeating what they said ...

... they keep saying "... crash crash crash" ... so I repeat "SIBOR crash crash crash" to make them happy ...

[Unregistered]

Industry players expect more homeowners to refinance their mortgage loans

By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 24 March 2008 1849 hrs


SINGAPORE: Industry watchers expect more home owners to consider refinancing their mortgage loans as interest rates look set to dip further.

In fact, mortgage and financial planning firm SingCapital has seen a three-fold jump in enquiries in the last two months.

Property agents are also getting a crash course in mortgage planning, including answering questions about refinancing of home loans.

This occurs when homeowners seek out more favourable loan packages from other lenders.

Industry players said it's the right time to refinance, which could save a huge amount in interest payments.

Alfred Chia, CEO of SingCapital, said: “Just from last year itself, interest rate could be as high as four per cent, compared to current rates where the average is about 2.5 per cent per annum. There's a big difference over there. Based on what we can see, interest rates will continue to fall, till the next six months."

Market watchers expect interest rates to fall a further half a percentage point in the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate or SIBOR by September.

It's partly linked to the recent cuts in US interest rates to contain the fallout from the sub-prime crisis.

SingCapital said it receives about 60 enquiries on refinancing each month.

Among these, seven in ten are private property owners.

Banks have also been enticing more customers with Maybank, Standard Chartered Bank and DBS among the most aggressive in the home loans market.

Mr Chia added: "There're some packages currently that offer 2.88 fixed for three years with a cash back of one percent. If it's a refinancing case, the one percent cash back would be given to the owners one month after the loans is disbursed.

“So if you add this interest rate, minus the cash rebates, the cumulative rate is only seven over percent, on average every year it's about 2.5 or 2.6 per cent interest.

“And it gives you the stability to plan for other finances, knowing that your monthly instalment for the house is going to be fixed at that price for the next three years.

Even though this may look like a good time to consider refinancing mortgage loans, industry players said home owners should assess the different packages based on their individual needs.

They should also be aware of the potential risks arising from the US sub-prime crisis and inflation. - CNA/vm
"Crash crash crash"
This one is for real.

[Unregistered]

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Barton Biggs Expects 1,000-Point Gain in Dow Average
Brian Sullivan and Michael Patterson
Bloomberg
Friday, 14 March 2008

The decline in U.S. stocks is "way overdone" and the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rally 1,000 points, investor Barton Biggs said.

"We're in a financial panic," Biggs said during a telephone interview with Bloomberg Television from New York. "We're setting up for a really big rally. I don't mean 300 or 400 points on the Dow, I mean 1,000 points on the Dow. I don't know if we're going to get it next week or the week after. But this thing has gotten crazy and is overdone."

Biggs, a former Morgan Stanley strategist who now runs the $1.5 billion hedge fund Traxis Partners LLC, said stock markets from Germany to Hong Kong may bottom out soon after tumbling this year. Biggs's prediction in March 2007 that U.S. stocks were near a low preceded a 16% rally in the Dow average during the next four months. His forecast that the Dow would climb as much as 19% in 2007 overshot its actual gain by almost 13 percentage points.

"We're at a really crucial point," Biggs said. "This is a time to be buying stocks around the world and not to be selling them."

The Dow average has tumbled 16% to 11,951.09 since reaching a record in October after the subprime-mortgage market's collapse caused $195 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses at global financial firms including Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. A 1,000-point gain in the Dow from today's close would amount to an 8.4% rise.

U.S. stocks plunged today for the third time this week, sending the Dow average down 1.6%, after Bear Stearns Cos. required a bailout from the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to avoid collapse.

"Yeah, it's scary. It's always scary at bottoms. But I don't believe the economy is collapsing," Biggs said. "This is not the end of the world."
Crash you head lah.
Barton Biggs says the big one (big surge that is) is coming.

[AFP]

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JPMorgan hikes offer for Bear Stearns to over US$1 billion
Agence France-Presse
New York, New York, U.S.
Monday, 24 March 2008, 4:50PM U.S. EDT

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The JPMorgan Chase building in New York City. JPMorgan Chase hiked its offer Monday for Bear Stearns to US$10 per share, or over US$1 billion, quintupling a fire-sale price agreed a week earlier for the distressed investment bank. - Photo: Chris Honcho, AFP

JPMorgan Chase hiked its offer Monday for Bear Stearns to US$10 per share, or over US$1 billion, quintupling a fire-sale price agreed a week earlier for the distressed investment bank.

JPMorgan Chase's increased offer comes after some Bear Stearns shareholders had angrily criticized an initial offer for the Wall Street bank and brokerage which valued it at a paltry US$2 per share or US$236 million.

The new offer dramatically hiked the price announced March 9 in a deal approved by the Federal Reserve to avert a feared collapse of Bear Stearns which had faced a cash crunch due to soured mortgage investments.

Some analysts had pointed out that Bear Stearns' corporate headquarters in New York alone, aside from its other business assets, was worth around one billion dollars.

The boards of directors of both banks approved the amended agreement -- which is five times the value of the original offer -- according to a joint statement issued shortly after the stock market opened for trading.

In a separate statement, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said it would now provide slightly less financing to underpin the deal, amounting to US$29 billion instead of an originally planned US$30 billion.

Under the plan, the Fed will release US$29 billion in taxpayer funds to help support the takeover in return for US$30 billion worth of Bear Stearns assets, including ailing mortgage-backed securities.

The portfolio of distressed Bear Stearns' assets will be managed by BlackRock Financial Management on behalf of the Fed which will accrue any gains from the portfolio.

JPMorgan Chase has agreed to bear the first one billion dollars in losses associated with the portfolio if its value declines.

"We believe the amended terms are fair to all sides and reflect the value and risks of the Bear Stearns franchise," said Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase's chairman and chief executive.

The new deal was announced as fears mounted that a significant number of Bear Stearns shareholders, including the bank's employees, would seek to block a deal valuing the bank at just two dollars a share.

Many employees faced losing significant sums on their investments in the bank if the deal had gone through at just two dollars a share. Bear Stearns shares were trading at well over US$100 last year, but plummeted sharply as its financial woes increased in recent months.

Its stock closed up 89% at US$11.25 in the wake of the new deal. JPMorgan Chase's stock ended up 1% at US$46.55 amid wider market gains.

The Standard and Poor's rating agency said it was upgrading some of its ratings on Bear Stearns due to a more lucrative deal being brokered.

"We expect the acquisition by JPMorgan to be completed under the revised terms in mid-May," Standard and Poor's said, adding that the improved deal benefits Bear Stearns' creditors.

Under the revised terms, each share of Bear Stearns common stock would be exchanged for 0.21753 shares of JPMorgan Chase common stock, up from 0.05473 shares as had originally been proposed last Sunday.

All the members of Bear Stearns board have indicated that they intend to vote their shares in favor of the revised takeover.

The US central bank approved the original takeover terms last Sunday when the deal was first announced following a week in which it was feared that Bear Stearns was close to collapsing.

Bear Steans' finances almost evaporated just over a week ago after rival banks stopped trading with it, fearing it was on the verge of collapse due to mounting losses on mortgage investments and related credit woes.

Dimon said he hoped the new deal would give more "certainty" to both banks shareholders and the financial markets. He also expressed hope that the deal would be closed promptly.

[Unregistered]

All these are done by US con men.

[Reuters]

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Stocks soar on revised Bear offer, home sales
Ellis Mnyandu
Reuters
Monday, 24 March 2008, 5:47 PM U.S. EDT

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange 17 March 2008. - Photo: Brendan McDermid, Reuters

U.S. stocks jumped on Monday after a raised buyout offer for Bear Stearns Cos Inc suggested that financial stocks may have reached bottom, especially in light of fresh data that fueled hopes for a turnaround in housing.

Stocks rang up big gains for a second straight session after JPMorgan Chase & Co lifted its offer for Bear Stearns to US$10 a share from US$2, helping alleviate concerns that other investment banking shares could tumble.

JPMorgan's move also relieved worry that a prolonged fight with disgruntled shareholders could have derailed the deal.

Financial stocks also got a boost from an article in the Barron's newspaper suggesting that downtrodden bank stocks could rebound by 10% to 20% by year end. Bear Stearns shares, which at their session high were more than doubled their Thursday's closing price, ended up 76.1%.

Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank by assets, was among financial sector standouts in the S&P 500, with its shares up 3.5%, while shares of American Express Co, a credit card and travel services company, led the Dow's financials with a 3.1% gain.

A surprising increase in sales of pre-owned homes last month fueled optimism that the worst of the housing slump may have passed. That ignited a rally in home building shares.

"More write-downs are expected in the financial space, but people are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel and they suspect that it's not an oncoming train," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Markets in Jersey City, New Jersey. "At US$2 a share for Bear Stearns, the question was: 'What were the rest of the financials worth?"'

Just before the close, investors also got some more encouraging news when the U.S. Justice Department approved the proposed $4.22 billion purchase of XM Satellite Radio by rival Sirius Satellite Radio. The deal still needs approval from the Federal Communications Commission, which is expected to follow the Justice Department's lead.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 187.32 points, or 1.52%, to finish at 12,548.64. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ended up 20.37 points, or 1.53%, at 1,349.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index shot up 68.64 points, or 3.04%, to close at 2,326.75.

Roaring Back From Easter Break

Monday's gains, coming after a three-day Easter weekend, helped Wall Street notch its first back-to-back advance for March and its biggest 2-day jump in almost 4 months.

The S&P 500 achieved its highest close for the month, and with this advance, the benchmark index trimmed its drop from its October record closing high to a decline of 13.1%.

The Nasdaq capped its biggest two-day advance since March 2003.

A rally in the shares of the tech sector's four horsemen -- Apple Inc, Research In Motion Inc, Google Inc and Amazon.com Inc -- also helped carry the Nasdaq to its highest level for March so far.

Technology shares' advance was driven in part by brokers' positive comments on semiconductor companies.

Bear Stearns shares rose to US$11.25 on the New York Stock Exchange, where they hit a session high of US$13.80 -- more than double their closing price of US$6.39 on Thursday, before the Easter break. Those of Citigroup finished at US$23.29. Shares of American Express climbed to US$47.41.

Those of JPMorgan, the No. 3 U.S. bank by assets, ended up 1.3% at US$46.55 on the NYSE.

Home builders rallied after a report from the National Association of Realtors showed a surprising jump in the February pace of existing home sales in the United States. The Dow Jones home builder index shot up 5.3%.

Shares of Toll Brothers, a luxury home builder, gained 4.7% to close at US$24.18.

Tiffany Sparkles And Techs Shine, Too

Retailers also surged after upscale jeweler Tiffany & Co posted an unexpectedly high quarterly profit and forecast robust growth in markets outside the United States and Japan. The S&P retail index was up 3.6%.

Tiffany shares jumped 10.5% to US$42.65 on the NYSE.

Lehman raised its rating on Analog Devices Inc, whose stock jumped 4% to US$29.47. Lehman also increased its recommendations on Fairchild Semiconductor International, Intersil Corp and Microsemi Corp to "overweight" from "equal weight."

Fairchild shares shot up 6.4% to US$11.83 on the NYSE, while on the Nasdaq, Intersil climbed 4.4% to US$26.49 and Microsemi advanced 3.4% to US$23.66.

Shares of Apple Inc, maker of the iPod, climbed 4.7% to US$139.53. The stock was the Nasdaq's top gainer.

Web search company Google's shares closed up 6.2% at US$460.56, while BlackBerry maker RIM's tock gained 6.6% to US$111.83 in Nasdaq trading. Web retailer Amazon.com shares rose 3.8% at US$75.95.

Trading was extremely light on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.57 billion shares changing hands, well below last year's estimated daily average of roughly 1.90 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 2.32 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.17 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by about 4 to 1 and on the Nasdaq, by almost 3 to 1.

[Unregistered]

"Ready for a rally" - UBS Investment Research
"Sectors under the most pressure also rebound the most": UBS
Next Insight
Singapore
Thursday, 20 March 2008

Joining a small but growing chorus of bulls, UBS issued a report yesterday (19 March 2008) saying “there is reason for optimism in global equity markets.”

It noted that US monetary and fiscal policy response has been aggressive and more is likely on the way.

”Coupled with attractive valuations, low interest rates, and reasonable earnings growth, we believe prospects for a more sustainable rally in equities appear good.”

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UBS has an overweight rating on the US, neutral on Global Emerging Markets and Japan, and underweight on Europe and UK.

Referring to the all the angst currently, UBS said there is a silver lining.

While fundamental pressures on the US economy stemming from the decline in house prices persist, the policy reaction to financial market turmoil has become increasingly aggressive, particularly from the Federal Reserve.

The uncertainty that has depressed overall equity market valuations is likely to dissipate, leading to a more sustainable rally than has appeared probable in recent months. “Thus, we are getting ready for a shift in markets to a more positive assessment of near term prospects based on the policy response we’ve seen so far and what may yet be coming.”

In deciding how to position oneself for the rally, UBS noted that the historical pattern of a market rebound suggests that the sectors that have been under the most pressure also rebound the most.

“Therefore, we have lifted our allocation to Financials and Consumer Discretionary.”

Looking back over previous market sell-offs (-10% from 12-month peak) that were followed by a sharp rebound (greater than 10% in three months), UBS found that the sectors that led markets lower also tend to lead in the recovery.

“This is an intuitive result insofar as a rebound in markets is probably driven by a change in fundamental expectations that allows the most impaired sectors to recover, while short-covering in bombed out sectors also reverses course.”

UBS added: “We believe that markets are poised for a broad recovery in valuations driven by a decline in risk premiums. These moves are likely to benefit the whole market.”

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STI's 52-week range: 2,756-3,906




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UBS Investment Research
Global Equity Strategy
Jeffrey Palma, William Darwin and Jennifer Delaney
Wednesday, 19 March 2008

Ready for a rally
- Finding the silver lining
Despite higher volatility, largely reflecting financial market stability concerns and expectations for a US recession, there is reason for optimism in global equity markets. Monetary and fiscal policy response has been aggressive and more is likely on the way. Thus, a major source of ‘tail’ risk appears to have been removed. Coupled with attractive valuations, low interest rates, and reasonable earnings growth, we believe prospects for a more sustainable rally in equities appear good.

- Broad market support
Sectors that underperform in a sell-off also tend to recover the most. Thus, we add to positions Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Even so, we believe a decline in risk premiums is likely to provide a boost to market valuations making a broadbased recovery. To reflect this more outlook we trim our defensive exposure (Healthcare and Consumer Staples), which we upgraded in January.

- Regions and stocks
We retain our regional allocations, where we are overweight in the US, neutral in GEM and Japan, and underweight Europe and UK. We are making several changes to our Global Top 40 stock list: Adding: Prudential Financial, News Corp, Barclays, and BNP Paribas. We are removing State Street, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, BAT, and Novartis.

- Lingering challenges
We recognize that a move to become less defensive could still be early given that uncertainty could persist. Details of policy response are still unknown and global growth is still under pressure, which may keep earnings expectations muted.

........
........
Now is the time to buy. Get ready for a rally.

[AP]

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Asian Markets Rally on Easing US Worries
Most Asian Markets Rise on US Housing Data, Revised Offer for Bear Stearns, Wall Street Rally
Malcolm Foster
Business Writer
Associated Press
Tuesday, 25 March 2008, 2:06 pm Thailand Time

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Most Asian markets rose Tuesday as investors returned from the Easter holiday in a mood to buy, encouraged by upbeat U.S. housing numbers and an overnight rally on Wall Street.

Stocks in Hong Kong and Australia, both of which were closed since Thursday, surged on easing concerns about the global credit crisis that has battered Asian markets since the start of the year.

"I think this is the beginning of a rally," said Francis Lun, a general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong. "We have gone down low enough and the market is ready for a rebound. Banks will lead the rally."

Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index jumped 4.2% to 22,010.91 in afternoon trading, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index soared 3.7% to finish at 5,318.4. Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 2.2% to 12,745.2 after ending flat on Monday.

Investors were heartened by a new agreement that will give Bear Stearns Cos. shareholders five times the payout that was set in a JPMorgan Chase & Co. buyout deal a week ago. In the revised offer, JPMorgan raised its offer for Bear Stearns, which has been at the center of the mortgage meltdown, to $10 a share from $2 a share.

"The offer gives the market renewed confidence, indicating that after further assessment, the situation at Bear Stearns may not be as bad as initially thought," said Jamie Spiteri, head of trading at Shaw Stockbroking in Sydney.

There was also optimism about the U.S. housing sector, which has been at the heart of the credit problems. The National Association of Realtors that Monday said sales of existing homes rose 2.9% in February, the first gain since last July.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 187.32, or 1.52%, to 12,548.64 on Monday, after rising more than 260 points on Thursday, the last day of trading before the Easter weekend.

In Australia, banks led the market higher. National Australia Bank, the nation's largest lender, rose 5.1%, while Australia and New Zealand Banking Group added 5.9%.

Still, some analysts warned that the declines in regional markets may not be over.

"It's too early to conclude an end of the prevailing bear market," said Ernie Hon, a strategist at ICEA Securities in Hong Kong.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index was flat in afternoon trading after falling earlier. Taiwan's main index was down 0.8% after surging 4% Monday amid expectations that president-elect Ma Ying-jeou will bring greater economic engagement with China.

[Unregistered]

Sorry sour grapes folk. Think your fervent wish for property market to crash will not materialised. Look at recovery of property counters across the board today.

Do yourself a favour, go out there and buy yourself a nice place this weekend (doesn't need to be a condo, actually a resale HDB is good enough) that you can afford than rather spending all the time wishing bad things to happen to Singapore and its economy. Be happy with what you have and don't be envious of others.

The sad/happy fact is this - Singapore property prices will continue to trend higher albeit at a more gradual and sustainable pace in line with its strong set of fundamentals.

[Unregistered]

Sorry sour grapes folk. Think your fervent wish for property market to crash will not materialised. Look at recovery of property counters across the board today.

Do yourself a favour, go out there and buy yourself a nice place this weekend (doesn't need to be a condo, actually a resale HDB is good enough) that you can afford than rather spending all the time wishing bad things to happen to Singapore and its economy. Be happy with what you have and don't be envious of others.

The sad/happy fact is this - Singapore property prices will continue to trend higher albeit at a more gradual and sustainable pace in line with its strong set of fundamentals.
If things are in line with fundamentals, then there is no rush. Whether sour grapes or otherwise, investors can wait and pick the right properties for themselves. There would be some good deals if one is willing to look hard, and there is an off-chance that an overcommitted speculator would sell at a good price.

All in all, take your time and look hard.

[Unregistered]

If things are in line with fundamentals, then there is no rush. Whether sour grapes or otherwise, investors can wait and pick the right properties for themselves. There would be some good deals if one is willing to look hard, and there is an off-chance that an overcommitted speculator would sell at a good price.

All in all, take your time and look hard.


you better be fast.
Stock market so strong these days, once the good deals all snapped up, nobody will sell at the price again anymore.

[Unregistered]

To be successful in property investment, there is no secret. Only one rule need to be remembered: buy during buyer market and sell during seller market...

[Reuters]

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HK stocks end 6.43% higher in biggest one-percentage gain in 2 months
Reuters
Hong Kong
Tuesday, 25 March 2008

Asian shares climbed on Tuesday, and the dollar held its gains, after JPMorgan raised its bid for Bear Stearns and US home sales rose unexpectedly, lifting expectations for a recovery in the US housing and credit markets.

Japanese government bond futures retreated, pulling away from last week's five-year highs, after US Treasuries slid on tentative hopes the world's top economy would weather the credit crisis.

Financial stocks, from Seoul's Kookmin Bank, to Australia's Babcock & Brown, rang up big gains after JP Morgan Chase & Co's sweetened offer for Bear Stearns signalled there was more value in financial assets than previously thought.

MSCI's index of shares outside Asia rose 1.9% by 9.50am Singapore time, the third day of gains, although the benchmark is still down around 16% this year.

Stocks on Wall Street rallied on Monday after a long Easter holiday weekend, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 3%.

Better-than-expected US housing data also helped to lift optimism over the economic outlook.

'If there's even a hint that the US housing slump might be coming to an end, and combined with an improved offer for Bear Stearns, it gives people hope that maybe the darkest period is over,' said Mr Hans Kunnen, head of investment markets research at Colonial First State in Sydney. 'But the market is just operating like a yo-yo within a band. I refuse to get carried away.'

Kuala Lumpur

Malaysian share prices closed 2.4% higher on Tuesday due to the overnight rally on Wall Street, dealers said.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index closed up 28.93 points at 1,229.95, off a high of 1,234.58.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong stocks surged 6.43% on Tuesday, the biggest one-day percentage gain in two months, tracking Wall Street gains on improved investor confidence after JP Morgan?s raised offer for Bear Stearns.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index ended at 22,464.52.

The China Enterprises Index of Hong Kong-listed mainland companies, or H shares, finished up 8.22% at 11,727.00.

Shanghai

Chinese stocks ended higher on Tuesday, led by property and airline shares, as the main stock index rebounded from technical support to close almost unchanged after tumbling near a nine-month low in early trade.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which sank 4.49% on Monday, ended Tuesday up 0.09% at 3,629.619 points. It hit an intra-day low of 3,521.528 in the morning, just off last Thursday's nine-month low of 3,516.330.

Rising Shanghai shares outnumbered falling stocks by 639 to 242, but turnover in Shanghai A shares shrank to a thin 77.6 billion yuan ($15.23 billion) from Monday's 88.3 billion yuan.

The index's recovery during the day was its second bounce from near technical support at 3,561, the 50% retracement of its bull run from June 2005; the first bounce occured last week. So many analysts believe that area may be the bottom for the market in the short term at least.

Tokyo

Japan's Nikkei average rose 2.1% on Tuesday as Canon and other exporters climbed with the yen trading well off a near 13-year high posted last week against the dollar, easing some concerns about exporters' earnings outlooks.

Sharp gains in other Asian markets also gave a boost to the Tokyo bourse, where investors continued to pick up recently battered shares.

The benchmark Nikkei ended up 265.13 points at 12,745.22. The Nikkei ended near flat on Monday, snapping a three-day winning streak. The broader Topix index added 1.5% to 1,242.98. The index rose for the fifth straight session.

[The Straits Times]

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STI closes higher, above 3,000
The Straits Times
Tuesday, 25 March 2008

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SGX Centre 1

Singapore shares ended higher on Tuesday with the benchmark Straits Times Index up 72.40 points or 2.47% to 3,000.19.

[Unregistered]

Wah! HongKong HSI went up 6.43%!!!!!! Can meh?

[Unregistered]

US Home Prices Drop 11.4 Pct. in January
Tuesday March 25, 9:04 am ET


S&P Says Home Prices Fall by Record 11.4 Percent in January

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index shows U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since S&P started collecting data in 1987.
The decline reported Tuesday means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.

The broader 20-city composite index is also down, falling 10.7 percent in January from a year ago. That is the first time both indexes dropped by double-digit percentages.

[Unregistered]

west coast will be beautiful going forward ... wow ...

[Unregistered]

US Home Prices Drop 11.4 Pct. in January
Tuesday March 25, 9:04 am ET


S&P Says Home Prices Fall by Record 11.4 Percent in January

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index shows U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since S&P started collecting data in 1987.
The decline reported Tuesday means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.

The broader 20-city composite index is also down, falling 10.7 percent in January from a year ago. That is the first time both indexes dropped by double-digit percentages.
wah better to invest in US. soon everyone pulling out of asia to invest in US.

[Unregistered]

wah better to invest in US. soon everyone pulling out of asia to invest in US.
YES GO US GO....SHOW WHO THE BOSS IS.

[Unregistered]

To be successful in property investment, there is no secret. Only one rule need to be remembered: buy during buyer market and sell during seller market...

My goodness ... that's exactly opposite to Warren Buffett's advice.

That's the sure way to lose all your money and turn into a sour grape.

[Unregistered]

To be successful in property investment, there is no secret. Only one rule need to be remembered: buy during buyer market and sell during seller market...


My goodness ... that's exactly opposite to Warren Buffett's advice.

That's the sure way to lose all your money and turn into a sour grape.

Sorry about my post above.

I read wrongly.

You are right.

[Unregistered]

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Asian Markets Rally on Easing US Worries
Most Asian Markets Rise on US Housing Data, Revised Offer for Bear Stearns, Wall Street Rally
Malcolm Foster
Business Writer
Associated Press
Tuesday, 25 March 2008, 2:06 pm Thailand Time

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Most Asian markets rose Tuesday as investors returned from the Easter holiday in a mood to buy, encouraged by upbeat U.S. housing numbers and an overnight rally on Wall Street.

Stocks in Hong Kong and Australia, both of which were closed since Thursday, surged on easing concerns about the global credit crisis that has battered Asian markets since the start of the year.

"I think this is the beginning of a rally," said Francis Lun, a general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong. "We have gone down low enough and the market is ready for a rebound. Banks will lead the rally."

Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index jumped 4.2% to 22,010.91 in afternoon trading, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index soared 3.7% to finish at 5,318.4. Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 2.2% to 12,745.2 after ending flat on Monday.

Investors were heartened by a new agreement that will give Bear Stearns Cos. shareholders five times the payout that was set in a JPMorgan Chase & Co. buyout deal a week ago. In the revised offer, JPMorgan raised its offer for Bear Stearns, which has been at the center of the mortgage meltdown, to $10 a share from $2 a share.

"The offer gives the market renewed confidence, indicating that after further assessment, the situation at Bear Stearns may not be as bad as initially thought," said Jamie Spiteri, head of trading at Shaw Stockbroking in Sydney.

There was also optimism about the U.S. housing sector, which has been at the heart of the credit problems. The National Association of Realtors that Monday said sales of existing homes rose 2.9% in February, the first gain since last July.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 187.32, or 1.52%, to 12,548.64 on Monday, after rising more than 260 points on Thursday, the last day of trading before the Easter weekend.

In Australia, banks led the market higher. National Australia Bank, the nation's largest lender, rose 5.1%, while Australia and New Zealand Banking Group added 5.9%.

Still, some analysts warned that the declines in regional markets may not be over.

"It's too early to conclude an end of the prevailing bear market," said Ernie Hon, a strategist at ICEA Securities in Hong Kong.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index was flat in afternoon trading after falling earlier. Taiwan's main index was down 0.8% after surging 4% Monday amid expectations that president-elect Ma Ying-jeou will bring greater economic engagement with China.
Should have bought Bear Sterns when it is around US$3 a few days ago.

[The Straits Times]

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Yishun condo site draws record bid of $213.5M
Fiona Chan
The Straits Times
Wednesday, 26 March 2008

A Yishun condominium site drew a higher-than-expected top bid when its tender closed yesterday, belying expectations of a property market slide.

Developer MCL Land offered $213.5 million for the 99-year leasehold plot, which works out to about $350 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr) - believed to be a new benchmark for Yishun.

Property consultants said this could translate into the finished project selling at record prices for the area, even as home buyers are now holding out for lower prices in a subdued market.

Mr Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank, estimated that the end units for the Yishun project could be priced from $830 psf up to almost $900 psf.

This would be almost double what the 99-year leasehold Orchid Park Condo down the road is fetching. Four units at the 14-year-old development have been sold there this year at an average price of $460 psf.

MCL Land's bid pipped four others and came in almost 70% higher than the next bid, from Peak Green, at $127 million, or $208 psf ppr.

Frasers Centrepoint, Sim Lian and Hong Kong's Cheung Kong also tabled offers ranging from $57.7 million to $109.7 million, or $95 to $180 psf ppr - which some consultants said were 'unrealistically low' bids. They had predicted bids of between $200 and $300 psf ppr.

But Mr Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CBRE Research, said the response was 'fairly robust' and signalled 'developers' confidence in the suburban segment despite the current lukewarm response to new projects'.

'Should the United States enter a mild recession and the sub-prime problems clear up, sentiment for suburban homes should improve after June, bringing demand and upward price momentum back to the market.'

Experts described MCL Land's offer as 'extremely bullish' and suggested that the developer may be short on land bank in the mass market segment.

MCL Land said in its latest financial results that it bought some sites last year, including Holland Hill Mansions and Dynasty Court Garden 1 in Sixth Avenue. Its land bank can now yield 780 units with a total gross floor area of 1.4 million sqft.

The Yishun site is at the corner of Yishun Avenues 1 and 2, and is 10 minutes' walk from Khatib MRT Station. It is next to Yishun Stadium and overlooks Lower Seletar Reservoir.

'The site is good in that frontage to the reservoir is fantastic,' said Mr Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore. 'I agree you should pay a premium for this site, but this seems to be a very significant premium.'

Separately, HDB yesterday put two more sites up for sale through its reserve list system.

One is a 182,986 sq ft plot at Jurong West Street 42 for executive condos, while the other is a 244,341 sq ft condo site at Chestnut Avenue in Bukit Panjang.


High Bid = High Home Prices?

Property consultants said the higher-than-expected offer by MCL Land could translate into the finished project selling at record prices for Yishun, even as home buyers are now holding out for lower prices in a subdued market.

[Reuters]

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq inch up
Ellis Mnyandu
Reuters
New York, New York, U.S.
Tuesday, 25 March 2008, 5:36 PM U.S. EDT

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 25, 2008. Photo: Brendan MeDermid, Reuters

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Tuesday as rebounding metal and oil prices lifted mining and energy shares, offsetting news of the biggest drop in consumer confidence in five years.

The Dow ended slightly lower, held back by a 3.5% drop in Bank of America Corp after a brokerage advised investors to sell the stock, citing the No. 2 U.S. bank's exposure to the bursting housing bubble.

Stocks weakened early after a Conference Board report showed consumer confidence fell sharply in March, raising the specter of Americans tightening their purse strings.

The data also hurt the dollar, which in turn fueled a rebound in commodity prices after last week's sell-off. That benefited companies such as aluminum producer Alcoa Inc, up 2%, and Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc which jumped 4.1%.

Standouts included shares of independent oil and gas producer Devon Energy, up 3.8%, and oil services company Schlumberger Ltd, which jumped 1.7%. Both stocks were among the Dow's biggest gainers.

"The catalyst for commodities is the weaker dollar and it's allowing other groups to rally," said Steve Goldman,

market strategist at Weeden & Co., based in Greenwich, Connecticut. "Global growth, at least from a commodities standpoint, will probably stay intact."

The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 16.04 points, or 0.13%, to close at 12,532.60. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index inched up 3.11 points, or 0.23%, to 1,352.99. The Nasdaq Composite Index ose 14.30 points, or 0.61%, to close at 2,341.05.

As the market had rallied on Monday to book its strongest 2-day advance in nearly four months, some investors opted to take profits, particularly in the financials, which had rallied on news of a revised buyout offer for beleaguered Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns Cos from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Shares of Bank of America dropped to $40.97 on the New York Stock Exchange, where shares of JPMorgan, the No. 3 U.S. bank by assets, slid to $46.06. Both stocks were among the top drags on the Dow and the S&P 500.

Alcoa And Qualcomm Climb

But shares of Alcoa led the Dow's advancers, finishing up 2%, or 70 cents, at $35.74, followed by shares of chemical maker DuPont, which gained 1.4%, or 64 cents, to $47.30.

Shares of Caterpillar Inc, the maker of bulldozers and excavating equipment, which is an exporter that benefits from a declining dollar, rose almost 1% to finish at $76.64 on the NYSE. Its customers include miners.

Monsanto Co was another bright spot on the commodities front after the U.S. agricultural biotechnology company raised its profit forecasts. Its shares jumped 9.9% to $114.54 on the NYSE.

"Outside of financial companies, earnings remain pretty strong," said Cleveland Rueckert, market analyst with Birinyi Associates Inc in Stamford, Connecticut.

Investors also snapped up technology shares following positive broker comments on the sector's bellwether stocks, including Qualcomm Inc.

The wireless chipmaker's stock, which gained 2.3% to close at $40.80 on the Nasdaq, was raised to a "buy" from "neutral" at Merrill Lynch, according to theflyonthewall.com, a financial Web site.

Shares of Yahoo Inc jumped 4.4% to close at $28.73 on Nasdaq after Citigroup said it is likely that Microsoft Corp will raise its takeover offer for the Internet media firm. Shares of BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd ended at $115.95, up 3.7%.

Static For Clear Channel

In after-hours trade, shares of Clear Channel Communications Inc slid 19.4% to $26.25 on news that talks concerning the $20 billion leveraged buyout of the U.S. radio and TV station operator had hit a snag. The stock ended the regular session at $32.56, down 5.6% on the NYSE.

Trading was extremely light on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.48 billion shares changing hands, well below last year's estimated daily average of roughly 1.90 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 2.12 billion shares traded, slightly below last year's daily average of 2.17 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a ratio of 2 to 1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

[The Straits Times]

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'Bullish outlook' for private equity in Southeast Asia
Alvin Foo
The Straits Times
Wednesday, 26 March 2008

The recent global market turmoil may have made private equity a more attractive source of funding, said speakers at a private equity conference yesterday.

They said the outlook for private equity deals in Southeast Asia is bullish despite the current gloom.

The United States credit crisis and turbulence in equity markets could force those seeking funds to turn to private equity, they added.

'Stock market valuations have come down and initial public offerings are now a much less attractive means of raising funds,' said Celadon Capital chief executive Nicholas Ashby. 'Thus, private equity funds have got better negotiating leverage now.'

Ms Darawati Hussain, director of CIMB's private equity unit, said: 'The liquidity crunch and potential global slowdown have made it harder for companies to find traditional sources of funding.'

She added that this gives them more motivation to turn to private equity.

Speakers at the Private Equity IQ Southeast Asia conference, organised by the International Quality & Productivity Centre and held at the Meritus Mandarin, said the US subprime crisis has had no direct impact on private equity in Southeast Asia because the region is insulated.

However, it may have an indirect impact as a slowdown in US consumer spending may eventually mean a fall in large capital buyouts.

Private equity investments in Southeast Asia totalled about US$12.4 billion (S$17.3 billion) last year. Of that, about US$5.3 billion was seen in Singapore, more than double the US$2.1 billion witnessed in 2006. In 2005, this figure was US$1.7 billion.

Among the mega deals in Singapore last year was a $2.2 billion takeover of local chip tester and assembler United Test and Assembly Center by private equity firms TPG Capital and Affinity Equity Partners.

The transaction value of private equity here was 3.2% of Singapore's gross domestic product - the highest percentage among countries in the region.

The twin engines of high growth and good corporate governance make Singapore a thriving location for private equity, noted Mr Grant Kelley, chief executive of Colony Capital Asia.

He added: 'You've got probably the best of both worlds ... hence Singapore leads the region in terms of the benchmark for private equity.'

[CNA]

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Pacific Star forms Munich joint venture for property investments in Asia, Europe
Channel NewsAsia
Tuesday, 25 March 2008, 2001 hrs

Real estate investment house Pacific Star has formed a joint venture in Munich which will help investors park their funds in prime Asian and European properties.

Under the deal, Pacific Star Europe also launched its Asian funds distribution business with targeted assets under management of over US$2 billion.

These will focus on real estate in India, China, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.

Pacific Star Europe will also manage a Fund of Funds that invests in global real estate.

The joint venture links Pacific Star with two individuals Dr Matthias Sturmer and Dirk Grosse-Wordemann.

Under the deal, Pacific Star Fund Management Singapore will own 51% of the company while the two partners will hold the remaining 49% stake.

European institutional investors transacted an estimated US$2.2 billion worth of property deals in Asia in the first half of 2007, according to figures by Jones Lang LaSalle.

At the same time, Asian inflows into European real estate totalled US$3.5 billion.

[AFP]

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German business confidence posts surprise rise in March: Ifo
Agence France-Presse
Frankfurt, Germany
Wednesday, 25 March 2008, 1:35PM CET

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A stock trader observes the developments on the stock market at the German Stock Exchange in the central German city of Frankfurt on 17 March 2008. German business confidence posted a surprise jump in March, a key survey showed on Wednesday, pointing to fresh vigour and a bullish outlook in Europe's biggest economy. - Thomas Lohnes, AFP

German business confidence posted a surprise jump in March, a key survey showed on Wednesday, pointing to fresh vigour and a bullish outlook in Europe's biggest economy.

In the closely watched business climate index, calculated each month by the Munich-based economic research institute Ifo, the March reading climbed to 104.8 points from 104.1 points in February.

Economists polled by Thomson Financial News had forecast the index would fall to 103.4 points.

"The results indicate that with the beginning of the year the German economy has gained strength," Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn said in a statement.

"The outlook for the coming six months has also brightened somewhat."

For its monthly survey, Ifo polls 7,000 companies about their current business conditions and their outlook for the next six months.

The survey showed relative optimism among German firms on both scores.

The business expectations sub-index, which measures the outlook for the next six months, rose to an indexed 98.4 from 98.2 in February.

The business assessment index, which covers current conditions, showed a stronger gain to 111.5 from 110.3 last month.

Analysts had expected the former figure to fall to 97.6 points and the latter to ease back to 109.5 points.

The climate indicators for the manufacturing and construction sectors both rose as well, while that for retailing fell slightly following a strong rise in February, Ifo said.

Analyst Andreas Rees at UniCredit said that exporters, the backbone of the German economy, appeared to be shrugging off the rapid rise in the euro exchange rate, the ongoing turbulence on financial markets and the slowdown of the US economy.

"German companies are currently giving the impression of supernatural and hence imperturbable species -- a mixture between Superman and Batman," he said.

Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics in London agreed that German industry appeared well-insulated from the chill on global markets.

"Slowing global demand and the strong euro must surely take their toll on German business confidence at some point," she said.

"But for now, this buoyant survey adds to the evidence that the slowdown in German GDP growth this year will not be too sharp."

Matthias Rubisch, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said the survey findings were auspicious for German growth, forecast at between 1.5 and 1.8% this year.

"The German economy is evidently proving surprisingly stable in a relatively harsh climate, and is likely to have achieved strong first-quarter growth," Rubisch said.

But he said stagnation in the Ifo data over the last six months kept more optimistic expectations in check.

"We do not therefore see the survey's findings as a sign of an upturn, but as indicative of the slowdown that set in last year taking a breather for the time being," he said.

Economist Sylvain Broyer at Natixis said upbeat business indices across the eurozone should give the European Central Bank reason for confidence.

"Even if stable business confidence does not mean that the eurozone economy is unaffected by the global turmoil, today's readings are for sure good news for the ECB," he said.

"In such a context, the European Central Bank can wait before easing monetary conditions, probably until June 08, when hard data will have shown the entire scope of the slowdown. We expect sluggish growth this year, with the eurozone gross domestic product rising by 1.5% year on year, but no lasting stagflation and no recession."

[Unregistered]

you better be fast.
Stock market so strong these days, once the good deals all snapped up, nobody will sell at the price again anymore.
Even better to buy distressed companies. Gains are faster and more than 100%. Property is not going to be as popular an instrument.

[Unregistered]

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'Bullish outlook' for private equity in Southeast Asia
Alvin Foo
The Straits Times
Wednesday, 26 March 2008

The recent global market turmoil may have made private equity a more attractive source of funding, said speakers at a private equity conference yesterday.

They said the outlook for private equity deals in Southeast Asia is bullish despite the current gloom.

The United States credit crisis and turbulence in equity markets could force those seeking funds to turn to private equity, they added.

'Stock market valuations have come down and initial public offerings are now a much less attractive means of raising funds,' said Celadon Capital chief executive Nicholas Ashby. 'Thus, private equity funds have got better negotiating leverage now.'

Ms Darawati Hussain, director of CIMB's private equity unit, said: 'The liquidity crunch and potential global slowdown have made it harder for companies to find traditional sources of funding.'

She added that this gives them more motivation to turn to private equity.

Speakers at the Private Equity IQ Southeast Asia conference, organised by the International Quality & Productivity Centre and held at the Meritus Mandarin, said the US subprime crisis has had no direct impact on private equity in Southeast Asia because the region is insulated.

However, it may have an indirect impact as a slowdown in US consumer spending may eventually mean a fall in large capital buyouts.

Private equity investments in Southeast Asia totalled about US$12.4 billion (S$17.3 billion) last year. Of that, about US$5.3 billion was seen in Singapore, more than double the US$2.1 billion witnessed in 2006. In 2005, this figure was US$1.7 billion.

Among the mega deals in Singapore last year was a $2.2 billion takeover of local chip tester and assembler United Test and Assembly Center by private equity firms TPG Capital and Affinity Equity Partners.

The transaction value of private equity here was 3.2% of Singapore's gross domestic product - the highest percentage among countries in the region.

The twin engines of high growth and good corporate governance make Singapore a thriving location for private equity, noted Mr Grant Kelley, chief executive of Colony Capital Asia.

He added: 'You've got probably the best of both worlds ... hence Singapore leads the region in terms of the benchmark for private equity.'
wooohahahahahahaha

[Unregistered]

U.S. Economy: Durable-Goods Orders Drop, New-Home Sales Slide

By Shobhana Chandra and Courtney Schlisserman

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly fell in February, led by a slump in demand for machinery, as the housing downturn and the prospect of a recession made companies hesitant to invest.

The 1.7 percent drop in demand for products made to last at least three years followed a 4.7 percent decrease in the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The department also reported that sales of new homes dropped 1.8 percent last month to a 13-year low.

Businesses are cutting equipment purchases as the biggest housing decline in a quarter century hurts sales, and rising fuel costs erode profit. Only exports are preventing manufacturing from declining even more. Economists at Morgan Stanley now predict the economy will shrink at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter, from a previous forecast for a 0.4 percent contraction.

``We're right in the teeth of the recession,'' John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. ``The recession's going to be characterized as the first half of 2008, and waiting for recovery in the second half.''

Treasuries rose after the reports, pushing yields lower. The benchmark 10-year note yielded 3.46 percent as of 11:15 a.m. in New York, down 5 basis points from yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1 percent to 12,408.5.

`Bit of Fatigue'

``Businesses definitely have shown they are beginning to retrench,'' said Aaron Smith, senior economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``Demand is weakening and investment intentions are showing a bit of fatigue.''

Economists projected orders would rise 0.7 percent, according to the median of 69 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, after a previously reported 5.3 percent slump in January. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which tend to be volatile, bookings fell 2.6 percent, the most since January 2007.

The slump in orders was paced by a 13 percent decline in demand for machinery that was the biggest since comparable records began in 1992.

Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, decreased 2.6 percent, the most since October. Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, dropped 2.1 percent, the most since January 2007.

Orders excluding defense equipment decreased 1.6 percent and bookings for military gear dropped 10 percent.

Economist Estimates

New home sales fell to a 590,000 annual pace, the lowest level since February 1995. Purchases were down 30 percent from February 2007.

Economists had forecast new-home sales would decline to an annual pace of 578,000, according to the median of 71 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 560,000 to 600,000. Purchases in January were revised up to 601,000 from a previously estimated 588,000 pace.

Purchases declined in two of four regions, led by a 40 percent plunge in the Northeast, the biggest drop since 1996. Sales improved in the South and West.

The report did contain one bit of positive news. The number of new homes for sale at the end of February dropped to 471,000, the fewest since July 2005, indicating builders are making headway in clearing out the inventory glut.

Still, the decline in sales kept supply at 9.8 months, the same as in January and the highest since 1981.

Elevated inventories are pushing down prices as builders struggle to unload homes they've already built. The median price fell 2.7 percent from February 2007 to $244,100.

`In a Pinch'

The durable-goods report also showed bookings for fabricated metals and automobiles dropped.

``There's a lot more economic uncertainty than we thought,'' Mark LaNeve, North American marketing chief for General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on March 19. ``With consumers in a pinch and some of the liquidity and credit issues we are experiencing in the economy, we are being more aggressive with incentives.''

A strike at auto-parts supplier American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. that has idled several automobile plants may also be contributing to the decline at vehicle makers. The four-week walkout has led to slowdowns at GM plants and at companies that supply parts and ship vehicles.

Manufacturing Weakness

Other factory surveys signal weakness. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index of business activity showed manufacturing contracted in March for the fourth month in a row. A similar measure from the New York Fed showed manufacturing shrank this month at the fastest pace since records began in 2001.

The Fed cut its main lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent on March 18 in an attempt to prop up the faltering economy and restore faith in the U.S. financial system.

``Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further,'' policy makers said in a statement after the meeting.

Manufacturers are getting help from growth in emerging markets. Terex Corp., the world's third-largest maker of construction equipment, is facing a record backlog in crane orders on surging overseas demand. The Westport, Connecticut- based company said it plans to expand facilities in China and India and expects to meet a goal of $12 billion in sales by 2010.

``Accelerated growth in developing markets'' is driving growth, Chief Executive Officer Ron DeFeo said at a trade show in Las Vegas on March 12. ``We're running as fast as we can to add as much capacity as we can.''

[Unregistered]

Citigroup Estimates Cut by Oppenheimer's Whitney

By Adam Haigh and Poppy Trowbridge

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, will post a quarterly loss four times as large as Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney previously estimated, she said in a revised forecast.

Citigroup fell 5.5 percent in New York trading to $22.17 at 11:15 a.m. after Whitney predicted the bank will lose $1.15 a share in the first quarter. That compares with her earlier loss estimate of 28 cents, Whitney wrote in an investor note yesterday.

Whitney correctly predicted two months in advance that Citigroup Inc. would reduce its dividend to preserve capital. Citigroup may write down $13.1 billion of assets including leveraged loans and collateralized debt obligations in the first quarter, according to her latest estimate. U.S. bank earnings overall will tumble 84 percent in the quarter, she said.

``This will not be our last reduction in 2008,'' Whitney wrote in the note. ``We anticipate further downside to both estimates and stock prices'' because banks will be under pressure to mark down assets to reflect falling market indexes.

Citigroup may write down $9 billion on CDOs and $2.15 billion on leverage loans in the first quarter, Whitney said. She cut her full-year estimate for Citigroup to a loss of 15 cents a share, down from her previous forecast of a 75 cent profit.

Biggest Loss

New York-based Citigroup posted the biggest loss in its 196- year history in the fourth quarter of 2007 after rising defaults on home loans forced the company to write down $18 billion of subprime mortgage investments. The bank cut its dividend for the first time after reporting a loss of $9.83 billion, or $1.99 a share.

Charles ``Chuck'' Prince stepped down as chief executive officer and was replaced by Vikram Pandit, who promised a thorough review of the bank's operations. Pandit eliminated 4,200 jobs, or about 1.1 percent of the workforce, at the end of the year and plans more cuts as he completes his cost review in April.

Citigroup is also selling $14.5 billion of preferred stock to investors including the government of Singapore to raise capital.

Pandit, 51, plans to tell shareholders in the next seven weeks how he intends to rebuild Citigroup after it lost more than $150 billion of market capitalization since the start of 2007.

Citigroup shares have declined 24 percent this year, valuing the bank at $116 billion.

[Unregistered]

New Home Sales Fall, Factory Orders Drop
Wednesday March 26, 10:25 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

New Home Sales Fall to a 13-Year Low, Underscoring Housing's Steep Slump; Factory Orders Fall

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of new homes fell in February for the fourth straight month, pushing activity down to a 13-year low as the steep slump in housing continued.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new home sales dropped 1.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units, the slowest sales pace since February 1995. The decline was slightly worse than expected.

The median price of a home sold last month dropped to $244,100, down 2.7 percent from the level of a year ago.

The prolonged slump in housing has dragged down overall economic activity. Many analysts believe the slump could combine with a multitude of other problems including a severe credit crunch, soaring energy prices and plunging consumer confidence, to push the country into a full-blown recession.

The number of unsold homes on the market at the end of the month represented a 9.8 months' supply at the February sales pace, the same as in January. That was the highest inventory level in more than 26 years and reflects the fact that increased numbers of mortgage foreclosures are dumping even more homes on an already glutted market.

Sales dropped the most in the Northeast, falling by 40.6 percent. Sales were also down in the Midwest, dropping by 6.4 percent, but posted gains in the South of 5.7 percent and 0.7 percent in the West.

Many analysts believe that the slump in housing, which began in 2006, could last into 2009. It was reported on Tuesday that the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices fell nearly 11 percent in January from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year decline in the history of the index.

Analysts said that housing is being hurt currently by tighter lending conditions as banks react to soaring mortgage defaults and the reluctance of prospective buyers to make a decision, fearing that prices have further to fall.

In other economic news, orders to factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell 1.7 percent in February, a second consecutive decline and further evidence of the economic troubles gripping the country.

The declines in orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, showed up in a number of areas. Demand for manufacturing equipment plunged by 13.3 percent, the largest amount on record, while orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, the category that is seen as a good proxy for business investment, fell by 2.6 percent, the biggest decline in four months.

Economic growth slowed to a barely discernible 0.6 percent in the final three months of last year, and many economists believe the gross domestic product will turn negative in the current quarter, signaling the start of a recession.

The 1.7 percent drop in orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, was worse than the 1 percent increase that many economists had expected.

The weakness came even though orders for transportation equipment rebounded with a 0.6 percent rise in February after a big 12.6 percent plunge in January. The swing in both months reflected changes in demand for commercial aircraft, which rose 5.4 percent in February following a 30.2 percent plunge in January. Orders for motor vehicles fell by 2.7 percent in February as U.S. automakers continued to face weak demand, reflecting the weak economy and soaring energy prices.

Excluding transportation, orders fell by 2.6 percent in February, representing the fourth decline in the past five months.

Economists believe that if the country does slip into a recession, the downturn may not be as severe in manufacturing, which is being helped by continued strong growth overseas, which is bolstering U.S. exports.

[AP]

http://www.ap.org/media/images/logo.gif
Japan February trade surplus up 0.9%
Associated Press
Tokyo, Japan
Wednesday, 26 March 2008, 2:55 PM Japan Time

Japan's trade surplus in February rose 0.9% from a year earlier, marking the first increase in four months, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday.

The surplus rose to 970 billion yen ($9.69 billion), the ministry said, coming in less than the 16.8% rise to 1.123 trillion yen ($11.2 billion) expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and Nikkei.

The rise was due to strong exports of automobiles and steel to Asia and machinery shipments to Europe and Asia, the ministry said. The surplus was weighed down, though, by a sharp drop in car and auto parts exports to the U.S., and high oil prices.

Overall imports rose 10.1% to 6.01 trillion yen ($60.06 billion), while exports rose 8.7% to 6.98 trillion yen ($69.76 billion).

Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. fell 13.3% to 696.9 billion yen ($6.96 billion), marking the sixth straight month of decline.

The trade surplus with Asian nations including China jumped 104.8% to 922.2 billion yen ($9.22 billion), rising seven months in a row.

Japan's deficit with China turned into a small surplus in February at 1.3 billion yen ($13.0 million). Exports to China rose 14.9% to 1.02 trillion yen ($10.1 billion), while imports dropped 15.1% to 1.014 trillion yen ($10.1 billion).

A food poisoning scare linked to imported frozen dumplings from China appear to have taken a toll on food imports from the neighboring export giant. Shipments of food plummeted 28% to 55.3 billion yen ($552.7 million).

[Unregistered]

U.S. Economy: Durable-Goods Orders Drop, New-Home Sales Slide

By Shobhana Chandra and Courtney Schlisserman

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly fell in February, led by a slump in demand for machinery, as the housing downturn and the prospect of a recession made companies hesitant to invest.

The 1.7 percent drop in demand for products made to last at least three years followed a 4.7 percent decrease in the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The department also reported that sales of new homes dropped 1.8 percent last month to a 13-year low.

Businesses are cutting equipment purchases as the biggest housing decline in a quarter century hurts sales, and rising fuel costs erode profit. Only exports are preventing manufacturing from declining even more. Economists at Morgan Stanley now predict the economy will shrink at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter, from a previous forecast for a 0.4 percent contraction.

``We're right in the teeth of the recession,'' John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. ``The recession's going to be characterized as the first half of 2008, and waiting for recovery in the second half.''

Treasuries rose after the reports, pushing yields lower. The benchmark 10-year note yielded 3.46 percent as of 11:15 a.m. in New York, down 5 basis points from yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1 percent to 12,408.5.

`Bit of Fatigue'

``Businesses definitely have shown they are beginning to retrench,'' said Aaron Smith, senior economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``Demand is weakening and investment intentions are showing a bit of fatigue.''

Economists projected orders would rise 0.7 percent, according to the median of 69 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, after a previously reported 5.3 percent slump in January. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which tend to be volatile, bookings fell 2.6 percent, the most since January 2007.

The slump in orders was paced by a 13 percent decline in demand for machinery that was the biggest since comparable records began in 1992.

Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, decreased 2.6 percent, the most since October. Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, dropped 2.1 percent, the most since January 2007.

Orders excluding defense equipment decreased 1.6 percent and bookings for military gear dropped 10 percent.

Economist Estimates

New home sales fell to a 590,000 annual pace, the lowest level since February 1995. Purchases were down 30 percent from February 2007.

Economists had forecast new-home sales would decline to an annual pace of 578,000, according to the median of 71 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 560,000 to 600,000. Purchases in January were revised up to 601,000 from a previously estimated 588,000 pace.

Purchases declined in two of four regions, led by a 40 percent plunge in the Northeast, the biggest drop since 1996. Sales improved in the South and West.

The report did contain one bit of positive news. The number of new homes for sale at the end of February dropped to 471,000, the fewest since July 2005, indicating builders are making headway in clearing out the inventory glut.

Still, the decline in sales kept supply at 9.8 months, the same as in January and the highest since 1981.

Elevated inventories are pushing down prices as builders struggle to unload homes they've already built. The median price fell 2.7 percent from February 2007 to $244,100.

`In a Pinch'

The durable-goods report also showed bookings for fabricated metals and automobiles dropped.

``There's a lot more economic uncertainty than we thought,'' Mark LaNeve, North American marketing chief for General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on March 19. ``With consumers in a pinch and some of the liquidity and credit issues we are experiencing in the economy, we are being more aggressive with incentives.''

A strike at auto-parts supplier American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. that has idled several automobile plants may also be contributing to the decline at vehicle makers. The four-week walkout has led to slowdowns at GM plants and at companies that supply parts and ship vehicles.

Manufacturing Weakness

Other factory surveys signal weakness. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index of business activity showed manufacturing contracted in March for the fourth month in a row. A similar measure from the New York Fed showed manufacturing shrank this month at the fastest pace since records began in 2001.

The Fed cut its main lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent on March 18 in an attempt to prop up the faltering economy and restore faith in the U.S. financial system.

``Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further,'' policy makers said in a statement after the meeting.

Manufacturers are getting help from growth in emerging markets. Terex Corp., the world's third-largest maker of construction equipment, is facing a record backlog in crane orders on surging overseas demand. The Westport, Connecticut- based company said it plans to expand facilities in China and India and expects to meet a goal of $12 billion in sales by 2010.

``Accelerated growth in developing markets'' is driving growth, Chief Executive Officer Ron DeFeo said at a trade show in Las Vegas on March 12. ``We're running as fast as we can to add as much capacity as we can.''

Oh it is much worse than thought before..

[Unregistered]

Sour grapes will not be very pleased with this development.


That's nothing compared with the Yishun site sold a few days ago for a whopping $350 psf ppr!

Imagine this site is in the outlying area (measured by its distance from Orchard Road or Chinatown) in the Lentor area and yet the new flats are projected to sell at between $830 to $900 psf.

Billion Rise must be laughing all the way to the bank since the West Coast Crescent is a much more desirable location measured by its proximity to the IR/town, the NUS, NUH, Vivocity in the south, IMM and the Bird Park in the north. Comparatively, WCC should command at least $1,200 psf for the top three floors in the new 36-storey condo as it has the panoramic view of the west coast and the lush Clementi Park.

So who says the market is going downhill? Sour grapes getting more acidic by the day.

[Unregistered]

west coast will be beautiful going forward ... wow ...


I used to be an eastern living by the seaside in Katong in the good old days until......

the prisioners broke out of jail....

the aeroplanes gathered at the new Changi Airport with the consequential noise pollution....

the east coast sea was reclaimed and the beach vanished.....

........ the others are too sensitive to mention.

So my family sold off the house and we started moving from place to place over the next decade looking for a place to replace our good old Katong house.

The west never appealed to us as it was supposed to be a fishing village with Malay kampongs on stilt houses and sampans parked underneath the house in Pasir Panjang.

But when NUS moved from Bukit Timah to Clementi, things started to change.

The sea also vanished, but HDB flats sprouted in the Hong Leong/Clementi West Area, while houses and condos mushroomed in the Pasir Panjang/South Buono Vista area.

When we went looking for our new home about 20 years ago, Chwee Chian Garden was the only modern building with the surrounding more like some virgin forests and plenty of wooden houses. And the folks in Chwee Chian actually kept chickens with the cocks crowing at 5 am!

Today, Chwee Chian becomes the Treasure Place and there is no more kampong spirit.

West coast has over taken east coast with all the amenities minus the noise pollution -- NUH, Alexandra Hospital, Jurong Hospital, NUS, two polys, SIM, numerous JCs, etc., etc.

It is now 10 mins drive to Vivocity and the IR.

Yes, west coast is going beautiful and no regret for migrating from east to west since 1987.

[Unregistered]

http://www.ap.org/media/images/logo.gif
Japan February trade surplus up 0.9%
Associated Press
Tokyo, Japan
Wednesday, 26 March 2008, 2:55 PM Japan Time

Japan's trade surplus in February rose 0.9% from a year earlier, marking the first increase in four months, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday.

The surplus rose to 970 billion yen ($9.69 billion), the ministry said, coming in less than the 16.8% rise to 1.123 trillion yen ($11.2 billion) expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and Nikkei.

The rise was due to strong exports of automobiles and steel to Asia and machinery shipments to Europe and Asia, the ministry said. The surplus was weighed down, though, by a sharp drop in car and auto parts exports to the U.S., and high oil prices.

Overall imports rose 10.1% to 6.01 trillion yen ($60.06 billion), while exports rose 8.7% to 6.98 trillion yen ($69.76 billion).

Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. fell 13.3% to 696.9 billion yen ($6.96 billion), marking the sixth straight month of decline.

The trade surplus with Asian nations including China jumped 104.8% to 922.2 billion yen ($9.22 billion), rising seven months in a row.

Japan's deficit with China turned into a small surplus in February at 1.3 billion yen ($13.0 million). Exports to China rose 14.9% to 1.02 trillion yen ($10.1 billion), while imports dropped 15.1% to 1.014 trillion yen ($10.1 billion).

A food poisoning scare linked to imported frozen dumplings from China appear to have taken a toll on food imports from the neighboring export giant. Shipments of food plummeted 28% to 55.3 billion yen ($552.7 million).
Oh it is much better than thought before..

[Unregistered]

Sour grapes will not be very pleased with this development.


That's nothing compared with the Yishun site sold a few days ago for a whopping $350 psf ppr!

Imagine this site is in the outlying area (measured by its distance from Orchard Road or Chinatown) in the Lentor area and yet the new flats are projected to sell at between $830 to $900 psf.

Billion Rise must be laughing all the way to the bank since the West Coast Crescent is a much more desirable location measured by its proximity to the IR/town, the NUS, NUH, Vivocity in the south, IMM and the Bird Park in the north. Comparatively, WCC should command at least $1,200 psf for the top three floors in the new 36-storey condo as it has the panoramic view of the west coast and the lush Clementi Park.

So who says the market is going downhill? Sour grapes getting more acidic by the day.

Don't worry, the sour grapes have already come up with the conclusions that:

1. The $350 psf ppr bid by MCL Land for the Yishun site represents only one developer's, i.e. MCL Land, rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.

2. The $305 psf ppr bid by Li Kashing's Billion Rise for the West Coast site represents only one developer's, i.e. Billion Rise, rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.

3. The $850 psf ppr bid by Pramerica Real Estate Investors (Asia) for the Serangoon Site next to the MRT represents only one developer's, i.e. Pramerica Real Estate Investors (Asia), rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.

[Unregistered]

Don't worry, the sour grapes have already come up with the conclusions that:

1. The $350 psf ppr bid by MCL Land for the Yishun site represents only one developer's, i.e. MCL Land, rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.

2. The $305 psf ppr bid by Li Kashing's Billion Rise for the West Coast site represents only one developer's, i.e. Billion Rise, rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.

3. The $850 psf ppr bid by Pramerica Real Estate Investors (Asia) for the Serangoon Site next to the MRT represents only one developer's, i.e. Pramerica Real Estate Investors (Asia), rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.

I think if they (sour grapes) are not dogmatic and wicked ie wishing bad things to happen to Singapore and its economy so that they can realise their aspiration of owning a condo, forumers will be more gracious and forgiving. Sad but true that such Singaporeans exist in our midst. Shame on you.

[Unregistered]

I used to be an eastern living by the seaside in Katong in the good old days until......

the prisioners broke out of jail....

the aeroplanes gathered at the new Changi Airport with the consequential noise pollution....

the east coast sea was reclaimed and the beach vanished.....

........ the others are too sensitive to mention.

So my family sold off the house and we started moving from place to place over the next decade looking for a place to replace our good old Katong house.

The west never appealed to us as it was supposed to be a fishing village with Malay kampongs on stilt houses and sampans parked underneath the house in Pasir Panjang.

But when NUS moved from Bukit Timah to Clementi, things started to change.

The sea also vanished, but HDB flats sprouted in the Hong Leong/Clementi West Area, while houses and condos mushroomed in the Pasir Panjang/South Buono Vista area.

When we went looking for our new home about 20 years ago, Chwee Chian Garden was the only modern building with the surrounding more like some virgin forests and plenty of wooden houses. And the folks in Chwee Chian actually kept chickens with the cocks crowing at 5 am!

Today, Chwee Chian becomes the Treasure Place and there is no more kampong spirit.

West coast has over taken east coast with all the amenities minus the noise pollution -- NUH, Alexandra Hospital, Jurong Hospital, NUS, two polys, SIM, numerous JCs, etc., etc.

It is now 10 mins drive to Vivocity and the IR.

Yes, west coast is going beautiful and no regret for migrating from east to west since 1987.

Wow! Old Money!

Katong bungalow facing the sea ... how romantic ...

After reading the first few sentences of your post, I initially thought you are a member of OCBC's Lee family.

I think they also had a Katong bungalow facing the sea ... at a time when the hoi polloi were too busy struggling to earn their next meal to worry about going for weekend barbecues by the sea.

Later the socialist government reclaimed the land and spoilt all the frontings of these bungalows.

Recently I read that Lee Seng Gee and his wife Della Lee bought a sea-fronting bungalow plot at Sentosa Cove.

I believe it's to relive the good old days of sea-front bungalow living that's no longer available on the Singapore mainland.

[Unregistered]

I think if they (sour grapes) are not dogmatic and wicked ie wishing bad things to happen to Singapore and its economy so that they can realise their aspiration of owning a condo, forumers will be more gracious and forgiving. Sad but true that such Singaporeans exist in our midst. Shame on you.

I don't think the sour grapes wish bad things to happen to Singapore in order to realise their aspiration of owning a condo.

There were many opportunities to own a condo between 1998 to 2004, a span of almost 8 years when prices were low and the market was dead. If they had wanted to buy a condo, they would have bought one during those 8 years.

It also doesn't mean that if you want to stay in a condo, you must stay a multi-million condo right in the middle of Orchard Road.

Even in today's highly-priced market, there are still some older condos going very cheaply for around $600,000.

Hillview Regency at Bukit Batok had been advertising in the Straits Times for the past 10 years and a few 904 sf units are still being transacted at a reasonable price of between $560,000 (Dec 2007) and $600,000 (Jan 2008).

[Unregistered]

I don't think the sour grapes wish bad things to happen to Singapore in order to realise their aspiration of owning a condo.

There were many opportunities to own a condo between 1998 to 2004, a span of almost 8 years when prices were low and the market was dead. If they had wanted to buy a condo, they would have bought one during those 8 years.

It also doesn't mean that if you want to stay in a condo, you must stay a multi-million condo right in the middle of Orchard Road.

Even in today's highly-priced market, there are still some older condos going very cheaply for around $600,000.

Hillview Regency at Bukit Batok had been advertising in the Straits Times for the past 10 years and a few 904 sf units are still being transacted at a reasonable price of between $560,000 (Dec 2007) and $600,000 (Jan 2008).
But missed already so get sour lor.

If now buy, they got no face mah. So don't buy lor.
But don't buy means missed more, so get even more sour lor.

[Unregistered]

Don't worry, the sour grapes have already come up with the conclusions that:

1. The $350 psf ppr bid by MCL Land for the Yishun site represents only one developer's, i.e. MCL Land, rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.

2. The $305 psf ppr bid by Li Kashing's Billion Rise for the West Coast site represents only one developer's, i.e. Billion Rise, rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.

3. The $850 psf ppr bid by Pramerica Real Estate Investors (Asia) for the Serangoon Site next to the MRT represents only one developer's, i.e. Pramerica Real Estate Investors (Asia), rosy outlook of the property market, and does not represent general consensus in developers' outlook.


There will be a few more strong bids for government land sales during 2Q by developers. This will convince would be buyers that they should stop speculating and buy based on affordability. If t is out of reach, scale down your expectation. Be a happy person, it is perfectly OK to live in a resale HDB flat rather than be a bitter gourd or sour grapes.

[mr funny]

March 28, 2008

West Coast condo site awarded to Cheung Kong-linked firm


THE Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has awarded the tender for the residential site at West Coast Crescent to Cheung Kong Holdings-linked Billion Rise.

The company submitted the highest bid of $110.44 million - or $305 per sq ft per plot ratio - for the 99-year leasehold condominium site facing West Coast Park and overlooking the sea.

Billion Rise's bid was just 1.4 per cent higher than the next highest offer of $301 psf by Far East unit Tian Hock Properties. MCL Land was next with $103.5 million or $286 psf.

The tender, launched on Jan 23 and which closed on March 19, drew 12 bids from firms defying signs of a property slowdown. The bidders included major and mid-sized developers and contractors.

The West Coast Crescent site can be built up to about 36 storeys.

Some high-floor units would enjoy good views of the ocean and West Coast Park as surrounding buildings are mostly low- to medium-rise, he said.

This tender also reflects the current market situation as some bids came in

relatively low. Industry sources say a few developers were trying their luck with opportunistic bids.

The lowest bid of $50 million, from Teambuild Construction's Scantech Development, works out to just $138 psf.

Other bidders included Sim Lian Land ($236 psf), Hoi Hup Realty ($235 psf), Frasers Centrepoint ($210 psf) and Allgreen Properties ($186 psf). City Developments' Sunny Vista Developments and TID also put in a bid of $180 psf.

Consultants said the top bid of $305 psf will translate into an estimated break-even price of $680 psf to $720 psf for new condos. Units could be sold at between $750 and $800 psf.

Units at nearby Blue Horizon were sold at about $750 psf in the resale market in January and February, while sub-sales of units in Varsity Park and Clementi

Woods were done at $680 psf to $750 psf, according to CBRE Research.

[Unregistered]

Wah! That was fast.

[ingiborg]

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[Unregistered]

I don't think the sour grapes wish bad things to happen to Singapore in order to realise their aspiration of owning a condo.

There were many opportunities to own a condo between 1998 to 2004, a span of almost 8 years when prices were low and the market was dead. If they had wanted to buy a condo, they would have bought one during those 8 years.

It also doesn't mean that if you want to stay in a condo, you must stay a multi-million condo right in the middle of Orchard Road.

Even in today's highly-priced market, there are still some older condos going very cheaply for around $600,000.

Hillview Regency at Bukit Batok had been advertising in the Straits Times for the past 10 years and a few 904 sf units are still being transacted at a reasonable price of between $560,000 (Dec 2007) and $600,000 (Jan 2008).

In general, what you comment on sour grape is true. In their opinion, property price cheong too high already. So, even there is any reasonable asking around, they still feel overpriced.

[Unregistered]

I don't think the sour grapes wish bad things to happen to Singapore in order to realise their aspiration of owning a condo.

There were many opportunities to own a condo between 1998 to 2004, a span of almost 8 years when prices were low and the market was dead. If they had wanted to buy a condo, they would have bought one during those 8 years.

It also doesn't mean that if you want to stay in a condo, you must stay a multi-million condo right in the middle of Orchard Road.

Even in today's highly-priced market, there are still some older condos going very cheaply for around $600,000.

Hillview Regency at Bukit Batok had been advertising in the Straits Times for the past 10 years and a few 904 sf units are still being transacted at a reasonable price of between $560,000 (Dec 2007) and $600,000 (Jan 2008).

Yes I agree. Sour grapes won't buy even when prices drop 40% in the coming few months and remain there for the next 8 years.

[Unregistered]

Yes I agree. Sour grapes won't buy even when prices drop 40% in the coming few months and remain there for the next 8 years.

Sour grape = NATO = No Action Talk Only!

Don't be distracted by these noisy folks.

[Unregistered]

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What crap is this?

[Unregistered]

Sour grape = NATO = No Action Talk Only!

Don't be distracted by these noisy folks.
Sour Grape II - SOS - Stuck Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Stuck!!!

[Unregistered]

Sour Grape II - SOS - Stuck Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Stuck!!!
Stucked with inflation? Told you to buy property, didn't we? Why don't listen? Now you regret?

[Unregistered]

Sour Grape II - SOS - Stuck Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Stuck!!!


Stucked with inflation? Told you to buy property, didn't we? Why don't listen? Now you regret?

I never cease to be amused by the mentality of some people in this forum.
They seem to belong to a completely different world.

Properties are meant to be bought and held from one generation to another. With each generation that passes, the property portfolio becomes more and more valuable.

We can't time the market, but we have time in the market.

The only time I had to sell a property was when it went en bloc, so I sold the to developer. However, I immediately bought a replacement property.

You see, the money sitting in the bank is of no use.

I don't know why some people have this idea that you must sell your property to realise a profit, hence they have this strange concept called "stuck" which I don't really understand.

Do these people live from hand to mouth? So much so that they need to sell away something to balance their monthy or weekly cashflow?

[Unregistered]

I never cease to be amused by the mentality of some people in this forum.
They seem to belong to a completely different world.

Properties are meant to be bought and held from one generation to another. With each generation that passes, the property portfolio becomes more and more valuable.

We can't time the market, but we have time in the market.

The only time I had to sell a property was when it went en bloc, so I sold the to developer. However, I immediately bought a replacement property.

You see, the money sitting in the bank is of no use.

I don't know why some people have this idea that you must sell your property to realise a profit, hence they have this strange concept called "stuck" which I don't really understand.

Do these people live from hand to mouth? So much so that they need to sell away something to balance their monthy or weekly cashflow?

Depend on which group you are talking about. Some people have been over stretching themselves on the loans to get a few properties, this has already been featured in the paper during the boom. If one see property as long term investment, i don't really see this as a problem.

[Unregistered]

I never cease to be amused by the mentality of some people in this forum.
They seem to belong to a completely different world.

Properties are meant to be bought and held from one generation to another. With each generation that passes, the property portfolio becomes more and more valuable.

We can't time the market, but we have time in the market.

The only time I had to sell a property was when it went en bloc, so I sold the to developer. However, I immediately bought a replacement property.

You see, the money sitting in the bank is of no use.

I don't know why some people have this idea that you must sell your property to realise a profit, hence they have this strange concept called "stuck" which I don't really understand.

Do these people live from hand to mouth? So much so that they need to sell away something to balance their monthy or weekly cashflow?

Ask yourself these questions speculator.

[Unregistered]

Stucked with inflation? Told you to buy property, didn't we? Why don't listen? Now you regret?
'Stucked'? Do you speak the Queens English?

[Unregistered]

'Stucked'? Do you speak the Queens English?
Erh .... what Queens English ah? I only know Property English.

[Unregistered]

I never cease to be amused by the mentality of some people in this forum.
They seem to belong to a completely different world.

Properties are meant to be bought and held from one generation to another. With each generation that passes, the property portfolio becomes more and more valuable.

We can't time the market, but we have time in the market.

The only time I had to sell a property was when it went en bloc, so I sold the to developer. However, I immediately bought a replacement property.

You see, the money sitting in the bank is of no use.

I don't know why some people have this idea that you must sell your
property to realise a profit, hence they have this strange concept called "stuck" which I don't really understand.

Do these people live from hand to mouth? So much so that they need to sell away something to balance their monthy or weekly cashflow?
It alright so long ppl can balance their cashflow..... but for u, do u believe that the fortune does not cross over the forth generation????

[Unregistered]

why so much philosophy?; believe in cheung kong; this is cheung kong's page

[Unregistered]

Sour Grape II - SOS - Stuck Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Stuck!!!
Stuck what?
What are you talking about?

The prices are still going up what.
How to get stucked?
Strange!

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/images/CNAlogo.gif
HDB and private property prices up in Q1 flash estimates
Channel NewsAsia
Tuesday, 1 April 2008, 1345 hrs

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/imagegallery/store/phpqVz7c1.jpg

Private residential property prices in Singapore rose 4.2% in the first quarter this year, according to the latest preliminary estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

The pace was slower than the 6.8% clip recorded in the fourth quarter of last year.

On a quarter on quarter basis, the biggest rise in property prices for non-landed properties came from the central districts just outside the prime postal districts of 9, 10 and 11.

Prices in these central areas (i.e. RCR) increased 7.7% in January to March, compared with the October to December period.

Properties in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11, as well as the downtown area and Sentosa (i.e. CCR), rose 7.5% on quarter.

And those in the rest of Singapore (i.e. OCR) advanced about 7% in the first quarter from the previous three months.

The preliminary estimates are based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first 10 weeks of the quarter, as well as the number of new units sold.

Meantime, the Housing and Development Board says prices of HDB resale flats rose 3.4% in the January to March period over the previous three months.

This is lower than the 5.7% increase in the fourth quarter.

Both the URA and HDB will release final figures at the end of April.

The URA said in its release, that as at 4th Quarter 2007,there are about 64,900 private residential units in the pipeline, of which about 56,100 new private housing units are expected to be completed between 2008 and 2011.

There are also some 38,300 units that have yet to be put on sale by developers.

As for the supply of government flats, the HDB said it had made available in the first quarter of this year, some 1,100 new flats in two Build-To-Order (BTO) projects in Punggol and Yishun.

It said that depending on demand, there could be another 5,000 new BTO flats in towns such as Punggol, Sengkang, Woodlands and Bukit Panjang.

The total planned BTO supply of 6,100 new flats for January till September 2008 will surpass the annual BTO flat supply in 2007 and 2006.

This new supply of flats will be in addition to those offered under Balloting Exercises for surplus replacement SERS and other flats, as well as the planned release of three Design-and-Build sites in Simei, Toa Payoh and Bedok with some 1,500 flats in the 1st half of 2008.

[bulka]

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[Unregistered]

Stuck what?
What are you talking about?

The prices are still going up what.
How to get stucked?
Strange!
Stucked in the lift. Too late to buy and the price went up.

[Unregistered]

Stuck what?
What are you talking about?

The prices are still going up what.
How to get stucked?
Strange!


Stucked in the lift. Too late to buy and the price went up.

Haha ... nonsense.

Price goes up or go down, sour grapes also have no money to buy properties.

Even last time when they had a miserable job at Motorola that pays them $3,000 a month, they already had no money to buy properties.

Now Motorola going to retrench some of them, how are they going to buy properties? Even those who are not retrenched will be very scared when will their head be chopped? Maybe Nokia is next? Hahaha ...

Property market goes up, they can only watch; property market comes down, they can only watch.

[Unregistered]

Haha ... nonsense.

Price goes up or go down, sour grapes also have no money to buy properties.

Even last time when they had a miserable job at Motorola that pays them $3,000 a month, they already had no money to buy properties.

Now Motorola going to retrench some of them, how are they going to buy properties? Even those who are not retrenched will be very scared when will their head be chopped? Maybe Nokia is next? Hahaha ...

Property market goes up, they can only watch; property market comes down, they can only watch.
Not only watch, they also KPKB. Thats the only thing they know.

In life, we have to take certain risk and you may have a 50% chance of winning. If you just sit there and talk down on the market, you will end up with no headway.

[Unregistered]

Stuck what?
What are you talking about?

The prices are still going up what.
How to get stucked?
Strange!


Stucked in the lift. Too late to buy and the price went up.

Haha ... nonsense.

Price goes up or go down, sour grapes also have no money to buy properties.

Even last time when they had a miserable job at Motorola that pays them $3,000 a month, they already had no money to buy properties.

Now Motorola going to retrench some of them, how are they going to buy properties? Even those who are not retrenched will be very scared when will their head be chopped? Maybe Nokia is next? Hahaha ...

Property market goes up, they can only watch; property market comes down, they can only watch.
No nonsense lah! It's true!

They have wanted to buy but that stupid lift slowed them down.
When they reached the sale office 3 months later, the price went up.

You should not blame them. Blame the lift. It was not properly mantained.

[Unregistered]

Not only watch, they also KPKB. Thats the only thing they know.

In life, we have to take certain risk and you may have a 50% chance of winning. If you just sit there and talk down on the market, you will end up with no headway.

50/50 ??????
go casino.......la. stupid.

[Unregistered]

Haha ... nonsense.

Price goes up or go down, sour grapes also have no money to buy properties.

Even last time when they had a miserable job at Motorola that pays them $3,000 a month, they already had no money to buy properties.

Now Motorola going to retrench some of them, how are they going to buy properties? Even those who are not retrenched will be very scared when will their head be chopped? Maybe Nokia is next? Hahaha ...

Property market goes up, they can only watch; property market comes down, they can only watch.

SHUT UP. U BLANGA, U SUPPOSE TO BE SWEEPING THE AREA OF THE WORKERS QUATTER. U MAKE NOISE AGAIN, I SENT U BACK INDIA.............

[Unregistered]

SHUT UP. U BLANGA, U SUPPOSE TO BE SWEEPING THE AREA OF THE WORKERS QUATTER. U MAKE NOISE AGAIN, I SENT U BACK INDIA.............
SHUT UP. U THAI GIRL, U SUPPOSE TO BE BENTING DOWN ..... U MAKE NOISE AGAIN, I WILL SHAFT IT.............

[CSR Police]

SHUT UP. U BLANGA, U SUPPOSE TO BE SWEEPING THE AREA OF THE WORKERS QUATTER. U MAKE NOISE AGAIN, I SENT U BACK INDIA.............
:****you: :asshole: :please-die:

[CSR Police]

SHUT UP. U THAI GIRL, U SUPPOSE TO BE BENTING DOWN ..... U MAKE NOISE AGAIN, I WILL SHAFT IT.............
:****you: :asshole: :please-die:

[Unregistered]

Please stop abusing the forum. Thanks.

[Unregistered]

SINGAPORE : Billion Rise - a company believed to be linked to Hong Kong property giant Cheung Kong Holdings - has put in the top bid of S$110.4 million for a residential site at West Coast Crescent.

This works out to S$305 per square foot per plot ratio for the 99-year leasehold parcel.

Analysts expect a break-even price of between S$680 and S$720 per square foot for a new condominium on the site. The units are expected to be marketed at around S$800 psf.

The next highest offer of S$108.9 million came from Tian Hock Properties, and the lowest bid was S$50 million from Scantech Development.

All in, the Urban Redevelopment Authority received 12 offers for the land parcel.

Consultant CB Richard Ellis said the strong response signals developers' confidence in the suburban segment despite the current lukewarm response to new projects.

Consultant Knight Frank expects the new condominium to yield about 300 units.

It believes the high level of interest for the site is because it is close to schools and has a good view of Clementi Park, West Coast Park and the sea.

The site spans 12,000 square metres and has a maximum permissible gross floor area of 33,600 square metres. This means that the proposed condominium could be built up to about 36 storeys.

The winner of the award is expected to be announced after the bids have been reviewed. - CNA/ms
$800 psf?
Those lucky burgers staying the are must be laughing now.

[Unregistered]

$800 psf?
Those lucky burgers staying the are must be laughing now.
This is a new high for this area.

[Unregistered]

$800 psf?
Those lucky burgers staying the are must be laughing now.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH HUAT AH!! HUAT AH!!! HUAT AH!!!!

[Unregistered]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH HUAT AH!! HUAT AH!!! HUAT AH!!!!
Swee liao lor! Ha ha ha!

[Unregistered]

Swee liao lor! Ha ha ha!

Ha Ha, like I say before, when I saw the news about Billion Rise paying so much for that plot of land next to Blue Horizon, I told myself, "HIT JACKPOT" Liao!!! HUAT AH HUAT AH HUAT AH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Unregistered]

Ha Ha, like I say before, when I saw the news about Billion Rise paying so much for that plot of land next to Blue Horizon, I told myself, "HIT JACKPOT" Liao!!! HUAT AH HUAT AH HUAT AH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You lucky bastard.
Some more Jurong District is also not very far.

[Unregistered]

SHUT UP. U BLANGA, U SUPPOSE TO BE SWEEPING THE AREA OF THE WORKERS QUATTER. U MAKE NOISE AGAIN, I SENT U BACK INDIA.............

Your English is atrocious! Where are you from?

Workers' "Quarters", not "Quatter".

"I send you back", not "sent".

And it's "Bangla", not "Blanga"

Anyway "Bangla" is a colloquial term for people from "Bangladesh", but Bangladesh is not the same country as India.

How can you send a Bangladeshi worker back to India?

That's like sending a Chinese worker back to Japan.

[Unregistered]

Your English is atrocious! Where are you from?

Workers' "Quarters", not "Quatter".

"I send you back", not "sent".

And it's "Bangla", not "Blanga"

Anyway "Bangla" is a colloquial term for people from "Bangladesh", but Bangladesh is not the same country as India.

How can you send a Bangladeshi worker back to India?

That's like sending a Chinese worker back to Japan.
Ha ha ha! It's funny! Thanks for interpreting his joke.

[Unregistered]

What is this hbytre?

[Unregistered]

What is this hbytre?
Must be an idiot!

[Unregistered]

You lucky bastard.
Some more Jurong District is also not very far.

My fengshui master was right. Huat ah!!! Huat Ah!!! Huat Ah!!!

[Unregistered]

This is a new high for this area.

will go higher

[Unregistered]

What is this hbytre?

Must be an idiot!
Why never erase his posting?

[Unregistered]

will go higher
Cheong ah! Huat ah!

[Unregistered]

SINGAPORE : Billion Rise - a company believed to be linked to Hong Kong property giant Cheung Kong Holdings - has put in the top bid of S$110.4 million for a residential site at West Coast Crescent.

This works out to S$305 per square foot per plot ratio for the 99-year leasehold parcel.

Analysts expect a break-even price of between S$680 and S$720 per square foot for a new condominium on the site. The units are expected to be marketed at around S$800 per square foot.

The next highest offer of S$108.9 million came from Tian Hock Properties, and the lowest bid was S$50 million from Scantech Development.

All in, the Urban Redevelopment Authority received 12 offers for the land parcel.

Consultant CB Richard Ellis said the strong response signals developers' confidence in the suburban segment despite the current lukewarm response to new projects.

Consultant Knight Frank expects the new condominium to yield about 300 units.

It believes the high level of interest for the site is because it is close to schools and has a good view of Clementi Park, West Coast Park and the sea.

The site spans 12,000 square metres and has a maximum permissible gross floor area of 33,600 square metres. This means that the proposed condominium could be built up to about 36 storeys.

The winner of the award is expected to be announced after the bids have been reviewed. - CNA/ms

Is this the tender that has once again reconvinced Citibank that Singapore ppty will remain robust for the coming period?

[Unregistered]

http://www.thomson.com/images/misc/logo_thomson.gif
Singapore's Q1 GDP growth beats forecast on strong manufacturing sector
Thomson Financial
Singapore
Thursday, 10 April 2008, 02:44 GMT

Singapore's economy expanded at a forecast-beating 7.2% in the first quarter from a year earlier, led by a double-digit rebound in manufacturing, advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MIT) showed Thursday.

Economists polled by Thomson Financial were expecting an average 6.4% rise in the first quarter, with forecasts ranging from 5.2% to 7.8%. Growth in the fourth quarter was at 5.4%.

Seasonally adjusted, growth was much more robust at 16.9%, rebounding from the fourth quarter's 4.8% contraction, the ministry said.

"This was line with expectations of a rebound after weakness in the fourth quarter, which has been concentrated in manufacturing. They were assuming healthy manufacturing numbers in March but this does not alter the basic story [that there will be] moderation in growth in 2008," said David Cohen, chief economist at Action Economics.

The advance estimates by the ministry were based on available economic data for the first two months of the quarter.

According to the estimates, the manufacturing sector expanded by 13.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, sharply higher than the 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter, with biomedical output recovering from a slump.

"The rest of the manufacturing clusters also enjoyed a better performance in the first quarter, with the exception of the transport engineering and precision engineering clusters, where growth moderated," the government said.

Activity in the construction sector gained pace to double-digit levels but is expected to moderate from the strong fourth quarter.

The construction sector expanded by 14.6%, compared with 24.3% growth in the fourth quarter.

Growth in service industries continued to expand, led by financial services, but may have slightly moderated to 7.6% from 7.7% in the fourth quarter based on MTI's estimates.

The strong GDP numbers provided the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the city-state's de facto central bank, the leeway to tighten its foreign exchange policy to tackle soaring inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) in Singapore was up 6.6% in January, a 25-year high, with just a slight moderation to 6.5% in February.

The MAS said on Thursday it is re-centering its policy band at the current strong level of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (NEER).

"They [MAS] seem like they are pretty confident that things are holding up nicely," said Cohen.

The MAS is still predicting GDP growth this year of between 4% and 6%, although growth is expected to ease in the next few quarters, while inflation is expected to be at the upper end of the central bank's forecast range of 4.5% to 5.5%.

"The [economic] outlook is still dependent on the global picture, which remains uncertain. Everyone is still nervous about the U.S. economy and how much it will drag down global demand," said Cohen.
Cheong ah!

[Unregistered]

Sing dollar going up. That's good for cash. Can start to look at properties in London and New York.

[Unregistered]

Sing dollar going up. That's good for cash. Can start to look at properties in London and New York.
While foreigners look for properties in Singapore to park their money due to the forecasted rise of the SGD.