View Full Version : Some tough decisions await HDB upgraders
princess_morbucks
02-06-14, 10:11
http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/straitstimes.com/files/imagecache/ST_REVAMP_2014_STORY_PAGE_640X360/20140602/ST_20140602_JANEYPPTY_369588e.jpg
Private condominiums and HDB flats in the eastern part of Singapore. The vacancy rate in the first quarter for completed units in the eastern region almost doubled, from 3.4 per cent to 6.1 per cent. -- ST FILE PHOTO
Many will be caught between flat resale and sub-par rental markets
FOR a health check of the private residential market, an investor needed only to check out the sales at an upmarket condo project in Ang Mo Kio when it was relaunched recently.
The developer attracted scores of buyers in a flat market - but only after slashing prices by 12 per cent.
The discounting lends credence to the forecasts made by some property analysts that private residential prices may fall by between 10 and 15 per cent over the next two years.
There are a range of issues feeding into this narrative, from both the supply and demand sides of the equation.
- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/housing/story/some-tough-decisions-await-hdb-upgraders-20140602#sthash.TKQHaEBi.dpuf
See Ringo was right, the East is only good for own stay, rental is bad.
In summary. .
The ones affected the worst are the hdb upgraders plus the old folks trying to rent out their units in order to get some income...
So I guess this is the out come the government wants by concentrating building in the ocr areas...
Tripple whammy.:doh:
See Ringo was right, the East is only good for own stay, rental is bad.
Not true...it was because govt decides to concentrate building in the eastern and north eastern areas.
If they decide to concentrate in the north or west also the same thing.
Not true...it was because govt decides to concentrate building in the eastern and north eastern areas.
If they decide to concentrate in the north or west also the same thing.
There are zoning restrictions in the west, thankfully.
There are zoning restrictions in the west, thankfully.
The ministers helming the tampines. .pasir punggol grc...where the most hdb upgraders reside ..how will their votes be affected?
Not true...it was because govt decides to concentrate building in the eastern and north eastern areas.
If they decide to concentrate in the north or west also the same thing.
I don't think so... Too little industries or business park in the east, north...
See Ringo was right, the East is only good for own stay, rental is bad.
c'mon, can't you display more sense than this?! using 1 article to over-generalize a conclusion....
Supply/demand will determine all of these, so most likely is oversupply in 2-3 years time.
Supply/demand will determine all of these, so most likely is oversupply in 2-3 years time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvYOxEkxYd4
You means the supply and demand in China.
They can have a number of ghost city, Singapore supply is still far from oversupply.
BTO - Build to order, no order no build how to oversupply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvYOxEkxYd4
You means the supply and demand in China.
They can have a number of ghost city, Singapore supply is still far from oversupply.
Come-on, China so big.. What always like to take all those ulu ulu city and say china property bubble... U go SHANGHAI, BEIJING, GUANGZHOU and see lah.. where got bubble... Price still going up...
https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/t1.0-9/10418419_10202772707171696_2431800102135638810_n.jpg
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p.nsf/PressReleases/2311677DFDF53AC248257BD40032F6A4?OpenDocument
walkthetiger
02-06-14, 18:17
Come-on, China so big.. What always like to take all those ulu ulu city and say china property bubble... U go SHANGHAI, BEIJING, GUANGZHOU and see lah.. where got bubble... Price still going up...
Same problem of 贫富差距.... this is no easy job.. more complex than the property issue...
The ministers helming the tampines. .pasir punggol grc...where the most hdb upgraders reside ..how will their votes be affected?
Minister job is not to make sure you make money from your hdb or private property investments lah. You decide to buy property than hold hdb than you better be damn well prepared prices could fall. That should have been factored into your financial calculations.
If you re scared hdb prices will drop than should sell first and rent while waiting for private property to complete. Why than are these people still holding? Because back than hdb prices were rising like nobody s business and everyone think hold longer by the time my private property top I sell hdb than huat already. Now suddenly drop all panic try to sell. One word. GREED.
Minister job is not to make sure you make money from your hdb or private property investments lah. You decide to buy property than hold hdb than you better be damn well prepared prices could fall. That should have been factored into your financial calculations.
If you re scared hdb prices will drop than should sell first and rent while waiting for private property to complete. Why than are these people still holding? Because back than hdb prices were rising like nobody s business and everyone think hold longer by the time my private property top I sell hdb than huat already. Now suddenly drop all panic try to sell. One word. GREED.
I think you just made an inaccurate assumption that I will be affected. :confused:
Errr...Why would I be affected?
I am just speculating how the hdb upgraders in these areas will react. And from your reply, you just validated that people's natural knee jerk reaction will be.
Of course they will be upset. And then goes back to my original question, do you think they will be happy with the government?
Or they will think like you...my fault for holding out? Or WTH did the government choose to build n build n build AND build in these 3 areas and nowhere else?!
And from coming me...I wonder if the government factored all these -ve consequences in...coz the end of the day..it is the heartlanders who are affected...paying more and suffer more.
Not the rich (like you???) or the damn filthy rich.
Coz I am sure they will think rich people speculated until the prices goes up and up...and end of the day they suffered the most.
And I would like to stress that most hdb upgraders are uncles, aunties, who dont surf forums like this, nor are they equipped with the knowledge of the property cycle. Perhaps all they know is that people kept saying price willl drop but didn't for the last few years..I am sure they save very loooong time before deciding to upgrade.
I think you just made an inaccurate assumption that I will be affected. :confused:
Errr...Why would I be affected?
I am just speculating how the hdb upgraders in these areas will react. And from your reply, you just validated that people's natural knee jerk reaction will be.
Of course they will be upset. And then goes back to my original question, do you think they will be happy with the government?
Or they will think like you...my fault for holding out? Or WTH did the government choose to build n build n build AND build in these 3 areas and nowhere else?!
And from coming me...I wonder if the government factored all these -ve consequences in...coz the end of the day..it is the heartlanders who are affected...paying more and suffer more.
Not the rich (like you???) or the damn filthy rich.
Coz I am sure they will think rich people speculated until the prices goes up and up...and end of the day they suffered the most.
And I would like to stress that most hdb upgraders are uncles, aunties, who dont surf forums like this, nor are they equipped with the knowledge of the property cycle. Perhaps all they know is that people kept saying price willl drop but didn't for the last few years..I am sure they save very loooong time before deciding to upgrade.
Sorry, TOO BAD for these people. Want to invest better be prepared for losses.
The property will only affected those who have more than 1 ppty... If you only have one and it is for home stay. The up and down are just figures for u with no meaning at all.. If now HDB down means private also down. If u sell low, u will buy low at the same time.
We need the govt to increase our population to more than 7m perhaps...and increase of gst to 10%...then property price will move up...
Sorry, TOO BAD for these people. Want to invest better be prepared for losses.
They are hdb upgrades...not investors. that's what the whole article is about. The normal hdb mum n pops...or even old folks..who unlike you!!..who have access to Internet at your fingertips..
It's exactly these kind of people who have such elitist thinking too bad for these average income people...let our higher income investment savvy people huat..totally unsympathetic that is why our country deteriorate to such state!...not sympathetic to these older more vulnerable folks ! :doh:
To summarize some felt the hdb ordinary upgraders deserved it. Some felt the ministers are not there to help make money for the investors. .
But i m not surprised none mentioned the plight of genuine poor folks who rent out rooms or the entire flat just to irk a small living..to help make their unbearable life bearable.
N they mostly reside in these far east, North east n north places...
I assume you have never seen this side of the impact. .or grow up in such environment.
our minister have missed them out again. Isnt it our Minister job to at least make sure these vulnerable people are not adversely affected? Most of them old grannies who spent their lives take care if their children..n if their children didnt break the vicious property cycle..they have to fend for themselves. .I m sure they do not have forums facebooks tp vent their frustration!
By mass building the ocrs with so many hdb n condo clearly upsetting the delicate balance. .
That's why I have my doubts that people with privileged background should serve as ministers .such myopic views ..never accessed how their policies will impact the vulnerable folks.
:beats-me-man:
.....
That's why I have my doubts that people with privileged background should serve as ministers .such myopic views ..never accessed how their policies will impact the vulnerable folks..
quite a few of our ministers have ordinary backgrounds.
Sorry, TOO BAD for these people. Want to invest better be prepared for losses.
Those who are selling HDB now won't really lose money because they bought the HDBs years ago. The only thing is they may gain more if they sold last year.
Those who just bought HDB last year cannot sell yet. Who knows if the HDB price will be higher or lower several years later.
Unfortunately, the sad truth is all those TDSR, ABSD (directly and indirectly) hit these average income people the most!
E.g., now many foreigners and PRs, to avoid paying so much ABSD, prefer to buy cheaper absolute quantum condo in heartland OCR, and smaller size units, jacking up the prices of these heartland condos by a lot and competing to buy with these heartland folks!!!!!!!!!!!!! Think, otherwise you will ever hear OCR condo transact at $1750 psf? :eek:
They are hdb upgrades...not investors. that's what the whole article is about. The normal hdb mum n pops...or even old folks..who unlike you!!..who have access to Internet at your fingertips..
It's exactly these kind of people who have such elitist thinking too bad for these average income people...let our higher income investment savvy people huat..totally unsympathetic that is why our country deteriorate to such state!...not sympathetic to these older more vulnerable folks ! :doh:
thomastansb
03-06-14, 11:09
TDSR is to ensure you don't burst your income. I think it is a good measure.
ABSD is claimable if you sell your house.
And why do you think we have such measures? It is because Singaporeans are complaining about high prices and here come the measures :)
Anyway, the Government can only cater for the majority - provide cheap HDB and let you earn a few hundred k after 5 years. I think that is good enough. If you want private, you got to think of ways.
Unfortunately, the sad truth is all those TDSR, ABSD (directly and indirectly) hit these average income people the most!
E.g., now many foreigners and PRs, to avoid paying so much ABSD, prefer to buy cheaper absolute quantum condo in heartland OCR, and smaller size units, jacking up the prices of these heartland condos by a lot and competing to buy with these heartland folks!!!!!!!!!!!!! Think, otherwise you will ever hear OCR condo transact at $1750 psf? :eek:
thomastansb
03-06-14, 11:12
I thought singaporeans are asking foreigners to go away and asking for property prices to drop. So the Government has done a great job isn't it? Rental is dropping and property prices are dropping. You get what you asked for?
They are hdb upgrades...not investors. that's what the whole article is about. The normal hdb mum n pops...or even old folks..who unlike you!!..who have access to Internet at your fingertips..
It's exactly these kind of people who have such elitist thinking too bad for these average income people...let our higher income investment savvy people huat..totally unsympathetic that is why our country deteriorate to such state!...not sympathetic to these older more vulnerable folks ! :doh:
I think you just made an inaccurate assumption that I will be affected. :confused:
Errr...Why would I be affected?
I am just speculating how the hdb upgraders in these areas will react. And from your reply, you just validated that people's natural knee jerk reaction will be.
Of course they will be upset. And then goes back to my original question, do you think they will be happy with the government?
Or they will think like you...my fault for holding out? Or WTH did the government choose to build n build n build AND build in these 3 areas and nowhere else?!
And from coming me...I wonder if the government factored all these -ve consequences in...coz the end of the day..it is the heartlanders who are affected...paying more and suffer more.
Not the rich (like you???) or the damn filthy rich.
Coz I am sure they will think rich people speculated until the prices goes up and up...and end of the day they suffered the most.
And I would like to stress that most hdb upgraders are uncles, aunties, who dont surf forums like this, nor are they equipped with the knowledge of the property cycle. Perhaps all they know is that people kept saying price willl drop but didn't for the last few years..I am sure they save very loooong time before deciding to upgrade.
nope I didn t assume you were one of them. The term you was used in general to the upgraders. Let me use another term than.
Very simply, people who have no financial capability to should not upgrade from HDB to private. Private property is not meant for the masses. That is the hard fact of life. No money don t act like you have. Very very simple
The problem is everyone wants to own private property, but it is not practically possible. HDB upgraders think that just because they made 100k-200k in profits (enough to pay for downpayment) they can upgrade to private property without due considerations on whether their income can support for the long run, whether they have enough financial buffers etc.
And let me tell you something, it is not the majority of your poor old uncles and aunties suffering (although I believe there are a number). I ve see many uncles and aunties with more money in their bank accounts than many people will have. That uncle or aunty who bought a condo is probably the uncle or aunty you see going down to singapore pools, or who buys a ton of fake jade coming back from china after a guided tour trip. So whether they lose it upgrading or elsewhere, well thats life.
My office alone has dunno how many young people in their early 30s upgrading from HDBs to ECs and condos. And in fact alot borrow from parents to buy EC right at the start without going through the HDB route. That is the problem with people nowadays.
By the way, i bought property in 2009. It was a personal investment decision. So if the markets tank some more should I vote the government out for not putting a floor price on property? What if I make a ton of money than how? vote the government back in?
What the government is now doing is no different than many other countries trying to stem the flow of liquidity. What has happened in the US, japan, europe are all prime example of laissez faire economies in the past.
nope I didn t assume you were one of them. The term you was used in general to the upgraders. Let me use another term than.
Very simply, people who have no financial capability to should not upgrade from HDB to private. Private property is not meant for the masses. That is the hard fact of life. No money don t act like you have. Very very simple
.
i will just zoom in on this part of your statement. i agree with you that private property ain't for the masses.
however with the government jumping on the bandwagon through provision of ECs, don't you think it distorts the view on private property?
Thermofisher
04-06-14, 09:23
nope I didn t assume you were one of them. The term you was used in general to the upgraders. Let me use another term than.
Very simply, people who have no financial capability to should not upgrade from HDB to private. Private property is not meant for the masses. That is the hard fact of life. No money don t act like you have. Very very simple
The problem is everyone wants to own private property, but it is not practically possible. HDB upgraders think that just because they made 100k-200k in profits (enough to pay for downpayment) they can upgrade to private property without due considerations on whether their income can support for the long run, whether they have enough financial buffers etc.
And let me tell you something, it is not the majority of your poor old uncles and aunties suffering (although I believe there are a number). I ve see many uncles and aunties with more money in their bank accounts than many people will have. That uncle or aunty who bought a condo is probably the uncle or aunty you see going down to singapore pools, or who buys a ton of fake jade coming back from china after a guided tour trip. So whether they lose it upgrading or elsewhere, well thats life.
My office alone has dunno how many young people in their early 30s upgrading from HDBs to ECs and condos. And in fact alot borrow from parents to buy EC right at the start without going through the HDB route. That is the problem with people nowadays.
By the way, i bought property in 2009. It was a personal investment decision. So if the markets tank some more should I vote the government out for not putting a floor price on property? What if I make a ton of money than how? vote the government back in?
What the government is now doing is no different than many other countries trying to stem the flow of liquidity. What has happened in the US, japan, europe are all prime example of laissez faire economies in the past.
You are spot on. However government is also responsible because their auxiliary department URA has led the developers into bidding wars the cost of course transfer to the people you mentioned above. My office all my peers are having condos. Some just bought it recently. All of them are feeling good except me because I don't have a condo.
Garment can never satisfy everyone. Problem is everyone is thinking about themselves. It is good for the property market to take a breather for people to think what they really need and not want. :)
I thought singaporeans are asking foreigners to go away and asking for property prices to drop. So the Government has done a great job isn't it? Rental is dropping and property prices are dropping. You get what you asked for?
I thought singaporeans are asking foreigners to go away and asking for property prices to drop. So the Government has done a great job isn't it? Rental is dropping and property prices are dropping. You get what you asked for?
Their wish come true!!!!
You are spot on. However government is also responsible because their auxiliary department URA has led the developers into bidding wars the cost of course transfer to the people you mentioned above. My office all my peers are having condos. Some just bought it recently. All of them are feeling good except me because I don't have a condo.
Have condo feel good? Maybe u should consider that u don't have debt n feel goo. Can those with condos in ur office tell their boss FO ? Nope they can't they have debt to think about.
Who's fault ? No one. It's time people man up n take their own finance choices n be responsible for them. Not blame sky, god or government for their bad choices .
Unfortunately, the sad truth is all those TDSR, ABSD (directly and indirectly) hit these average income people the most!
E.g., now many foreigners and PRs, to avoid paying so much ABSD, prefer to buy cheaper absolute quantum condo in heartland OCR, and smaller size units, jacking up the prices of these heartland condos by a lot and competing to buy with these heartland folks!!!!!!!!!!!!! Think, otherwise you will ever hear OCR condo transact at $1750 psf? :eek:
Talk rots. 80% buyers in OCR are Singaporean. So who jack up? U?
Thermofisher
04-06-14, 14:01
Have condo feel good? Maybe u should consider that u don't have debt n feel goo. Can those with condos in ur office tell their boss FO ? Nope they can't they have debt to think about.
Who's fault ? No one. It's time people man up n take their own finance choices n be responsible for them. Not blame sky, god or government for their bad choices .
As much as I like to agree with you on your points but the reality is I am not any better without a housing loan?! I don't have bad debts to leverage and grow! At least those colleagues of mine can happily bbq, swimming, tennis and gym in their condo. Best is they can sell higher next time! Me? Still stuck with HDB loan...LPPL.
As much as I like to agree with you on your points but the reality is I am not any better without a housing loan?! I don't have bad debts to leverage and grow! At least those colleagues of mine can happily bbq, swimming, tennis and gym in their condo. Best is they can sell higher next time! Me? Still stuck with HDB loan...LPPL.
Well what if things go the other way some get retrenched and cannot pay the loan. and interest move up and valuation dropped?
Will you feel the rush to rush in? there is always a flip slide to everything. if you think u can accept the flip side then jump in by all means.
As much as I like to agree with you on your points but the reality is I am not any better without a housing loan?! I don't have bad debts to leverage and grow! At least those colleagues of mine can happily bbq, swimming, tennis and gym in their condo. Best is they can sell higher next time! Me? Still stuck with HDB loan...LPPL.
You are in great shape with a HDB loan. I have heard of those who can convert three HDBs into one landed property in Mt Sinai ultimately. Even if you can't do so now, it's a great dream to have.
I am sure your friends can invite you to BBQ. Booking a place to BBQ at East Coast or HDB areas occasionally also won't spend much. For tennis or gym there are membership schemes that cost a tiny fraction of the $300 maintenance fees. Will you and your family really use them that much?
In all, you don't need to buy a cow just to get milk!
You are in great shape with a HDB loan. I have heard of those who can convert three HDBs into one landed property in Mt Sinai ultimately. Even if you can't do so now, it's a great dream to have.
I am sure your friends can invite you to BBQ. Booking a place to BBQ at East Coast or HDB areas occasionally also won't spend much. For tennis or gym there are membership schemes that cost a tiny fraction of the $300 maintenance fees. Will you and your family really use them that much?
In all, you don't need to buy a cow just to get milk!
correction: it's private condo in Mt Sinai, not landed property hor
thomastansb
04-06-14, 21:24
People only see the greener side but neglected the pitfalls. Every coin has 2 sides. Some people only see 1 side.
Well what if things go the other way some get retrenched and cannot pay the loan. and interest move up and valuation dropped?
Will you feel the rush to rush in? there is always a flip slide to everything. if you think u can accept the flip side then jump in by all means.
My father always see the other side of the coin and I chose to see the opposite side. After he retire, he ask me whether is it good for him to get his second cherry.:doh:
My father always see the other side of the coin and I chose to see the opposite side. After he retire, he ask me whether is it good for him to get his second cherry.:doh:
Last time cherries were sweet and cheap, now the cherries are hard, tasteless and super ex.
For a longer time frame, still must look at both sides of the coin. The question is when you look.
Mr. Propwise (PW): When times are bad, bank sales can often be a good source of deals. These deals are a result of the previous owner being unable to pay the monthly mortgage to the bank, often due to unexpected unemployment or if the mortgage payments balloon as interest rates rise. In the period of very low interest rates that we’re currently in, many people assume that this is the natural state of things, only to be caught off-guard when rates normalize. If mortgage rates rise to a more “normal” level of 4%, many people’s mortgages can go up by around 50%. If this coincides with an unexpected loss of employment during a downturn, you can be sure the number of bank sales will go up. Banks are primarily concerned with getting back their principle, so they are often willing to sell the property at a price that is 20 to 40 percent below what the owner paid for it.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/t31.0-8/p417x417/1072558_10200650786204998_1893842256_o.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_cyLwajfAagA/TUaRUWwbwOI/AAAAAAAAAKw/Ez4foDNZU6U/s1600/IMG_0588.jpg
http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.fr/2011/01/ever-wondered-how-money-supply-grows-in.html
Ever Wondered How the Money Supply Grows in Singapore?
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/t31.0-8/p417x417/1072558_10200650786204998_1893842256_o.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_cyLwajfAagA/TUaRUWwbwOI/AAAAAAAAAKw/Ez4foDNZU6U/s1600/IMG_0588.jpg
Longer time line means post TDSR and later liquidity crunch cum interest rise.
Longer time line means post TDSR and later liquidity crunch cum interest rise.
Hi possible to enlighten what the graph means?
Does it mean money is 'cheaper' n thus property prices are higher?
Hi possible to enlighten what the graph means?
Does it mean money is 'cheaper' n thus property prices are higher?
Thats obvious right? since US went on QE. This is the outcome ard the world
Thats obvious right? since US went on QE. This is the outcome ard the world
Me no econs student..just to be sure. So What happens once the money doesn't come cheap anymore in future?
What happens to the buyer of the current high property prices?
Me no econs student..just to be sure. So What happens once the money doesn't come cheap anymore in future?
What happens to the buyer of the current high property prices?
In other words..Once money isn't cheap anymore...will the prices revert to the past prices before the money was cheap? :beats-me-man:
walkthetiger
05-06-14, 12:41
In other words..Once money isn't cheap anymore...will the prices revert to the past prices before the money was cheap? :beats-me-man:
...need no economist to explain this phenomena...
The Sky the limit.
Money supply cut, price may sustain.
Price down provided the cash flow jam up somewhere or out flow.
In other words..Once money isn't cheap anymore...will the prices revert to the past prices before the money was cheap? :beats-me-man:
how can this happen? you need a global, coordinated effort (with strong political will) to withdraw the $$$ slushing in the global economy.
Me no econs student..just to be sure. So What happens once the money doesn't come cheap anymore in future?
What happens to the buyer of the current high property prices?
good guess
look at 1997, peak properties buyers.. what do you think, about where are they during these years.
those who pulled through this decade, break-even or have some profits. not forgetting the interests and the cpf amount to returned.
how much cash the owners got eventually
and for some can't pulled through, cut losses and run.
imagine for this current peak, higher than 1997
the 97 crisis is different from 08. post 97, there wasn't a global money printing galore, unlike post lehman
Money is already in the System, there seem to be no way of reducing it.
Interest rate increase what will happen to the debt US is holding, do you think the debt interest will not increase.
Money = Debt.
Without debt there are no money.
What is money ?
Money is a paper where two person exchange goods. Give money to a bushman and he will use it to make fire.
http://www.dvl.co.za/news/102009/images/bushman.jpg
the 97 crisis is different from 08. post 97, there wasn't a global money printing galore, unlike post lehman
Will mass printing of money eventually lead to collapse of the financial system?
Or will this unprecedented minting of money set stage for a new reality? Elevated housing prices that are here to stay?
one of the major bugbears during the last election was rising hdb prices. So the government has tackled that effectively. Now what they need to do is maintain the supply of flats consistently, so that we don t get a cycle of undersupply again. Personally I think HDB resale prices should come down by another 10-20% for it to be considered more reasonable.
I ve said before, HDBs are basic housing, meant as a roof over your head. You want to speculate there re enough different forms of real estate to do so, like ECs, private property, commercial, industrial, overseas etc.
Will mass printing of money eventually lead to collapse of the financial system?
Or will this unprecedented minting of money set stage for a new reality? Elevated housing prices that are here to stay?
Housing prices was not elevated, it just reflect the true value of the money and the Billion of dollars of investment on infrastructure in Singapore.
Housing in some US state cost less than the material to build.
walkthetiger
06-06-14, 07:31
Will mass printing of money eventually lead to collapse of the financial system?
Who is able to gave an assurance?
walkthetiger
06-06-14, 07:48
Money is already in the System, there seem to be no way of reducing it.
..Human is very productive, the growth is like definite... think about the ongoing items that are created constantly....Everything is relative.
Will mass printing of money eventually lead to collapse of the financial system?
Or will this unprecedented minting of money set stage for a new reality? Elevated housing prices that are here to stay?
well, ECB just reduced their interest rates to 0
thomastansb
06-06-14, 10:43
I agree. My friend sold his buangkok 4 bedroom at 640k last year. Mid floor and blocked view somemore. His neighbour just sold 520k recently. I hope to see 450k transactions soon.
one of the major bugbears during the last election was rising hdb prices. So the government has tackled that effectively. Now what they need to do is maintain the supply of flats consistently, so that we don t get a cycle of undersupply again. Personally I think HDB resale prices should come down by another 10-20% for it to be considered more reasonable.
I ve said before, HDBs are basic housing, meant as a roof over your head. You want to speculate there re enough different forms of real estate to do so, like ECs, private property, commercial, industrial, overseas etc.
Who is able to gave an assurance?
I am not asking for assurance..just looking at the possibility of the downsides of mass printing will overwhelm the system.
I believe every solution comes with its unique set of problems. .n whether the problem s will eventually given raise to an even bigger of problems. .
I agree. My friend sold his buangkok 4 bedroom at 640k last year. Mid floor and blocked view somemore. His neighbour just sold 520k recently. I hope to see 450k transactions soon.
If going by your statistics. .The price already fell 20%. If looking at 450k.that means price fall of 30% from the high of 640k.
I agree. My friend sold his buangkok 4 bedroom at 640k last year. Mid floor and blocked view somemore. His neighbour just sold 520k recently. I hope to see 450k transactions soon.
Perhaps ur neighbor has a well designed and well maintained flat that is in move in condition and suited the buyer's taste? Vs his neighbour's that it might be just simply furnished or has a design that the buyer didn't like and will need to redo everything?
walkthetiger
06-06-14, 11:06
I am not asking for assurance..just looking at the possibility of the downsides of mass printing will overwhelm the system.
I believe every solution comes with its unique set of problems. .n whether the problem s will eventually given raise to an even bigger of problems. .
...all things can happen will eventually happen...just be sure about your risk, and be prepared... I guess nobody has a clue how soon(this year?...haha...maybe next century), especially our "economists" and experts in the forum.
http://www.straitstimes.com/archive/monday/premium/money/story/some-tough-decisions-await-hdb-upgraders-20140602
CAI JIN
Some tough decisions await HDB upgraders
Many will be caught between flat resale and sub-par rental markets
Published on Jun 2, 2014 1:15 AM
By Goh Eng Yeow Senior Correspondent
FOR a health check of the private residential market, an investor needed only to check out the sales at an upmarket condo project in Ang Mo Kio when it was relaunched recently.
The developer attracted scores of buyers in a flat market - but only after slashing prices by 12 per cent.
The discounting lends credence to the forecasts made by some property analysts that private residential prices may fall by between 10 and 15 per cent over the next two years.
There are a range of issues feeding into this narrative, from both the supply and demand sides of the equation.
On the demand side, Nomura analyst Sai Min Chow recently noted home buyers' waning appetite for mass market condos.
She estimated that of the 12,200 unsold homes built on land sold by the Government since December 2011 - when the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) was introduced to cool the buying fervour - 8,200 are in the suburban areas typically favoured by Housing Board (HDB) flat upgraders.
But even in a worst-case scenario where all this inventory is sold at a 30 per cent discount to current prices, she thinks property developers' share prices will not be that badly affected.
Some property shares would even be worth between 10 and 35 per cent more than their current levels, she calculated.
Ms Sai's analysis suggests that property developers may not lose much sleep even if they have to slash prices to move units.
But the same cannot be said of the legions of mum-and-dad investors who have sunk their life savings into a condo in the hope of achieving a higher return than the crumbs on offer at the banks.
Their consolation must lie in the fact that home prices are holding up so far. In the first quarter, private home values slipped by only 1.3 per cent from the previous quarter, after sliding 0.9 per cent in the preceding three months.
This seems to suggest a gradual correction is in the works rather than the more dramatic double- digit percentage drop analysts have been predicting.
Still, worse may be to come. The big question for many is how the market is going to cope with the deluge of completed units coming onstream between now and 2016. That may, in turn, depend on how HDB home owners who have bought private units - either to move into or to rent out for investment income - will fare.
This group of buyers has grown in importance over the years. In the fourth quarter of 2008, buyers with HDB addresses bought 255 new private homes. Two years later, in the fourth quarter of 2010, that number had jumped to 1,990.
It then more than doubled to 4,046 units in the second quarter of 2012, even though the Government had imposed the ABSD. This may have been partly due to developers softening the blow by giving cash rebates on stamp duties.
Then last year, property loan rules were tightened. A borrower's total monthly loan repayments now cannot exceed 60 per cent of his gross monthly income. But HDB owners took this in their stride as well, buying 1,200 new private homes in the first quarter of this year.
Let's consider the impact on the private rental market when these units bought by HDB owners are completed.
Based on estimates provided by developers to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), private housing completion may hit over 17,000 units this year - up from 13,150 completed last year and 10,329 in 2012. A further 48,000 units are scheduled to flood the market in the next two years.
This increase in supply may depress rental growth in the private housing market.
Rental statistics have not raised any alarm bells yet, with private residential rentals easing only 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter as at the end of March.
However, tucked into a recent Savills residential property report was an observation that in the first quarter, the vacancy rate for completed units in the eastern region had almost doubled, from 3.4 per cent to 6.1 per cent.
This, Savills, noted, was partly due to newly completed large projects such as Waterview on Tampines Avenue and The Shore Residences on Amber Road.
If the trend from the eastern region is a gauge, vacancy rates will shoot up as more units are completed. This may cause rental yields to come under pressure, especially in the suburban areas favoured by HDB owners and where most condo completions will be.
Private home owners renting out their suburban properties will also face competition from landlords renting out their HDB units.
What may aggravate the problem is that landlords can no longer claim vacancy refunds on property taxes. So rather than cope with the various expenses of leaving a unit vacant, they may lower their rental expectations instead.
A different problem may confront those wishing to sell their HDB flats and move into their new condos. In the past three years, the HDB has launched a massive 77,000 build-to-order flats (BTO) on the market to help to meet the demand for public housing.
At the same time, HDB has allowed singles to buy new two- room flats in non-mature estates, and given second-timers a higher chance to ballot for a BTO flat.
It has also introduced a three- year waiting period for new permanent residents before they can buy HDB resale flats.
These measures have dampened demand for HDB resale flats. Resale transactions fell to just 18,100 last year from 25,094 in 2012 - the fewest since 1997.
Mr Tan Tiong Cheng, chairman of property consultant Knight Frank, said the crunch may come when HDB owners get their keys to the large number of newly- built condos in locations such as Pasir Ris, Sengkang and Punggol. These areas are less likely to attract the expatriate tenants who offer better rental yields.
Caught between a sub-par rental market and a lacklustre HDB resale market, these property owners may have some tough decisions to make.
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I still think many HDB people want to upgrade to condos now. They are just waiting for prices to soften even more before buying. Problem here is will prices drop a little before going up again? Once you miss the boat, have to wait for another few more years.
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