View Full Version : Only 5 percent say they are buying now: Property survey
http://propertysoul.com/2014/10/27/only-5-percent-say-they-are-buying-now-property-survey/
Only 5 percent say they are buying now: Property survey
October 27, 2014
With developers rushing to launch or re-launch new and existing projects ahead of the festive season, the Saturday after the Hari Raya Haji public holiday saw twenty-two property advertisements in the Straits Times marketing local property projects.
Despite aggressive marketing by developers, the PropertySoul.com Blog Readership Survey revealed that only five percent are saying that they are planning to buy a private property now.
The property survey asked 355 respondents when they are planning to buy a private property. It was conducted online between September 5 and 23 this year on readers of PropertySoul.com.
Prefer to rent than buy
This is despite the fact that 10 percent of respondents are currently renting. Among them, only 5.6 percent are planning to buy. The result shows that most renters still prefer to continue renting instead of taking the risk to buy now for fear of prices dropping further after their purchase.
A total of 13 percent of respondents have no definite timeframe to buy a private property. Among the non-buying group, half of them have no intention to buy at all. Another half are waiting on the sidelines and expecting to buy at lower prices. Some are even anticipating a recession that may result in a major market correction before they will consider buying again.
https://propertysoul.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/intention-to-buy.jpg
Loss of market confidence
Contrary to the common belief that the market is affected by the property cooling measures, including additional buyer or seller stamp duties and the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework, only one percent of respondents are saying that they are waiting for the uplift of buying restrictions by the government before considering buying again.
The results demonstrated that it is the eroding confidence in the property market, not the cooling measures, that is to blame for the weak demand in private residential properties. With no sign of recovery under a softening property market, potential buyers are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach on property purchase.
The opportunistic and overzealous buyers seen in the last few years are gone. It proves that the fad in properties is not sustainable when properties with historically-high prices can no longer prove their value. Once high-price-low-yield makes property investment unattractive, investor appetite will naturally shrink.
Worsening of oversupply
The worsening imbalance between supply and demand is adding up to the problem. According to the URA data, 37.7 percent of uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) remained unsold as of 3rd Quarter 2014. There is now a total of 97,180 private housing and EC units in the overall pipeline supply. The influx of 20,852 units in 2014 and 23,769 units in 2015 to the market will definitely create a housing glut in the next few years.
That said, there is still good news that a significant number of survey respondents (42 percent) plan to buy in one to three years while another 27 percent plan to do so after three to five years.
The demand from first-time buyers, upgraders and investors will always be there. The current situation is a see-saw battle between the buyers and sellers. It will persist for some time and little can upset the balance unless there is a major crisis happening in the market.
Looks like cooling measures are having the desired effects...... finally.
Shame it took so many rounds of them before some people finally got the message.
walkthetiger
27-10-14, 15:42
Looks like cooling measures are having the desired effects...... finally.
Shame it took so many rounds of them before some people finally got the message.
Looking at it the other way, many investors here had MTB, with just the 5% buyers around; it tells us most of them don’t have a buyer now at all… price needs to fall further to bring buyers back… The bottom is yet to come…
So how low will MTB buy,
example : Southbank 2 Bedroom SGD bought in 2006 SGD 535,000.
Terrasse 3 Bedroom PH sold in 2011 SGD 1,305,800.
When I told my friend in 2010 I bought Southbank, they told me why I did not tell them to buy.
I ask them a simple question.
Will they buy a car or buy a condo given they have SGD 100,000 cash and the answer they give tell them why I did not tell them.
Those who buy when majority are staying away could turn out to be shrewd move.
Air Storm + Land Storm also coming .. Beware
Money printing machine this time in ECB
Draghi Sets Stimulus Pace as ECB Reveals Covered-Bond Purchases
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-27/draghi-sets-stimulus-pace-as-ecb-reveals-covered-bond-purchases.html
nvestors will be handed a clue today in to just how aggressive Mario Draghi is willing to be.
At 3:30 p.m. in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank will reveal how much it spent on covered bonds last week after returning to that market for a third time as part of a renewed bid to stave off deflation.
The central bank bought at least 800 million euros ($1 billion) of assets from Portugal to Germany in the three days since the program began on Oct. 20, traders said last week. Formal details will help them divine how quickly the ECB president can reach his target of expanding the institution’s balance sheet by as much as 1 trillion euros.
Euro 1,000,000,000 in 3 days = 333,333,333.33 a day = 13,888,888.89 an Hours = 23,1481.48 a minute
probably I'm the 5% BUT if the price is right which is future price of at least 15%-20% off the tag.
I reckon lesser and lesser landed transacted and it's a fact as sellers r still asking high while buyer r still standing aside. It's waiting game now!
No hurry - wait
Hurry - rent
I'm eating pop corn & watch the price - More exciting news ahead !!!
From Historical perspective. In this kind of waiting game. Usually who will need to let it go first?
Anyone can share their experience?
walkthetiger
27-10-14, 18:22
probably I'm the 5% BUT if the price is right which is future price of at least 15%-20% off the tag.
I reckon lesser and lesser landed transacted and it's a fact as sellers r still asking high while buyer r still standing aside. It's waiting game now!
No hurry - wait
Hurry - rent
I'm eating pop corn & watch the price - More exciting news ahead !!!
Any sellers can shout their properties worth millionsss....but with no taker, then just let the fishmonger let his fishes turn "咸鱼"....有价没市....
Any sellers can shout their properties worth millionsss....but with no taker, then just let the fishmonger let his fishes turn "咸鱼"....有价没市....
Interesting, remind me of my 5 room selling experience.
Bought in 1995 for SGD 250,000 for 126 SqM, Selling price was SGD 225,600 and premium of 10% SGD 22,560.
Lease start 1997. Collect Key 1996 MOP 2001.
At that time opposite unit sold for SGD 390,000. in 2001.
People ask me what price will I sell, I told them SGD 500,000. People say "咸鱼"....有价没市
Opposite Block sold for SGD 680,000 Dec 2013.
Again people ask what price will I sell, I told them SGD 690,000. People say "咸鱼"....有价没市.
Got to wait till someone willing to pay me to move.
walkthetiger
27-10-14, 19:06
From Historical perspective. In this kind of waiting game. Usually who will need to let it go first?
Anyone can share their experience?
Of course those have weaker holding power waiting for buyers to bail them... ... their unit already to sell below bank valuation....
Key points from Mr Khaw:
1) Since 2009 low, property price goes up average 60%.
2) Since 2009 low, Singaporeans' income goes up average 30%.
3) Now property price already drop to average 50%, so closer to income increase.
Analysis Using same logic:
1) Since 2009 low, CCR properties already drop to 30% increase vs 2009 low (due to cooling measures). However, high-income Singaporeans' income had increased 80-100% !!! So, CCR property prices (now $2200-$2400 psf) look very cheap vs income increase!
2) Since 2009 low, OCR properties have gone up >140% vs 2009 low to current around $1200 psf but has barely dropped (because cooling measures targeting foreigners' buying not effect at all on OCR!). However, middle-income Singaporeans' income had increase only about 20% !!! So, OCR property prices look very expensive vs income increase, so OCR property price has a lot of room to drop (to closer to 2009 lows of $500 psf !!!)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://propertysoul.com/2014/10/27/only-5-percent-say-they-are-buying-now-property-survey/
Only 5 percent say they are buying now: Property survey
October 27, 2014
With developers rushing to launch or re-launch new and existing projects ahead of the festive season, the Saturday after the Hari Raya Haji public holiday saw twenty-two property advertisements in the Straits Times marketing local property projects.
Despite aggressive marketing by developers, the PropertySoul.com Blog Readership Survey revealed that only five percent are saying that they are planning to buy a private property now.
The property survey asked 355 respondents when they are planning to buy a private property. It was conducted online between September 5 and 23 this year on readers of PropertySoul.com.
Prefer to rent than buy
This is despite the fact that 10 percent of respondents are currently renting. Among them, only 5.6 percent are planning to buy. The result shows that most renters still prefer to continue renting instead of taking the risk to buy now for fear of prices dropping further after their purchase.
A total of 13 percent of respondents have no definite timeframe to buy a private property. Among the non-buying group, half of them have no intention to buy at all. Another half are waiting on the sidelines and expecting to buy at lower prices. Some are even anticipating a recession that may result in a major market correction before they will consider buying again.
https://propertysoul.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/intention-to-buy.jpg
Loss of market confidence
Contrary to the common belief that the market is affected by the property cooling measures, including additional buyer or seller stamp duties and the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework, only one percent of respondents are saying that they are waiting for the uplift of buying restrictions by the government before considering buying again.
The results demonstrated that it is the eroding confidence in the property market, not the cooling measures, that is to blame for the weak demand in private residential properties. With no sign of recovery under a softening property market, potential buyers are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach on property purchase.
The opportunistic and overzealous buyers seen in the last few years are gone. It proves that the fad in properties is not sustainable when properties with historically-high prices can no longer prove their value. Once high-price-low-yield makes property investment unattractive, investor appetite will naturally shrink.
Worsening of oversupply
The worsening imbalance between supply and demand is adding up to the problem. According to the URA data, 37.7 percent of uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) remained unsold as of 3rd Quarter 2014. There is now a total of 97,180 private housing and EC units in the overall pipeline supply. The influx of 20,852 units in 2014 and 23,769 units in 2015 to the market will definitely create a housing glut in the next few years.
That said, there is still good news that a significant number of survey respondents (42 percent) plan to buy in one to three years while another 27 percent plan to do so after three to five years.
The demand from first-time buyers, upgraders and investors will always be there. The current situation is a see-saw battle between the buyers and sellers. It will persist for some time and little can upset the balance unless there is a major crisis happening in the market.
Visitors to a site that scream don't buy now probably attract the same group thinking. If teddy polls his followers on ccr, they will scream cheap too lol
I am quite sure OCR is very expensive now vs 2009 lows.
For example, in Jurong, 2009 lows is about $400+ to $500 psf. Now JGateway $1700+ psf!
For example, in Hougang, 2009 lows also about $500 psf. Now easily $1300+ psf!
Jurong and OCR private condos prices are so seriously over-priced that people have to hide by lumping them with CCR prices and say AVERAGE PRICE ONLY UP ABOUT 50% from 2009 lows !!!!!!!!!!!!
They can't just tell the truth about prices of various regions? Can they don't point at a donkey and tell us it is a horse, we got brain ok??????
I provide with facts.
If you think CCR is expensive, can provide examples with facts and figures?
Visitors to a site that scream don't buy now probably attract the same group thinking. If teddy polls his followers on ccr, they will scream cheap too lol
I am quite sure OCR is very expensive now vs 2009 lows.
For example, in Jurong, 2009 lows is about $400+ to $500 psf. Now JGateway $1700+ psf!
For example, in Hougang, 2009 lows also about $500 psf. Now easily $1300+ psf!
Jurong and OCR private condos prices are so seriously over-priced that people have to hide by lumping them with CCR prices and say AVERAGE PRICE ONLY UP ABOUT 50% from 2009 lows !!!!!!!!!!!!
They can't just tell the truth about prices of various regions? Can they don't point at a donkey and tell us it is a horse, we got brain ok??????
I provide with facts.
If you think CCR is expensive, can provide examples with facts and figures?
CCR is not all the same. If you located in the wrong side of CCR, you will be contented with 2000psf for FH property.. If you are located on the other side LH99 CCR property has already touch 5000psf. As the saying goes, property game is all about location, location. And the biggest myth you would ever hear is this forumm is buying the worst unit in CCR is better than buying the best unit in OCR. And that are solid fact to prove its a myth.
How do you define "best unit in OCR"? By price only????
In this case, I can fore-tell that JGateway, marketed as the "best unit in OCR" and hence got carrot head buying at $1700+ psf, will not be able to hold up that kind of price with surrounding condos going for $900+ to $1200 psf (which is already over-priced according to Mr Khaw, Singapore Minister for National Development, when he referenced property price should be close to 2009 low and adjusted for income increase. And mind you, 2009 low in Jurong was only $400-500 psf)!
CCR is not all the same. If you located in the wrong side of CCR, you will be contented with 2000psf for FH property.. If you are located on the other side LH99 CCR property has already touch 5000psf. As the saying goes, property game is all about location, location. And the biggest myth you would ever hear is this forumm is buying the worst unit in CCR is better than buying the best unit in OCR. And that are solid fact to prove its a myth.
How do you define "best unit in OCR"? By price only????
In this case, I can fore-tell that JGateway, marketed as the "best unit in OCR" and hence got carrot head buying at $1700+ psf, will not be able to hold up that kind of price with surrounding condos going for $900+ to $1200 psf (which is already over-priced according to Mr Khaw, Singapore Minister for National Development, when he referenced property price should be close to 2009 low and adjusted for income increase. And mind you, 2009 low in Jurong was only $400-500 psf)!
As the saying goes, dont try to teach an old dog new trick.
You have already MTB on OCR, MM and you are going MTB on CCR too.
Don't play play with Minister for National Development!
If he want property price to drop, he will be able to!
See, CCR prices already crash >30% !
Now is OCR turn (we are already seeing signs).................................. :shame:
Given that CCR private condo prices went up 50% since 2009 lows and then drop 30%,
what is going to OCR private condo prices that went up by >140% since 2009 lows and have just show sign of dropping?
May be drop 30%-50% or even more??? :grey:
As the saying goes, dont try to teach an old dog new trick.
You have already MTB on OCR, MM and you are going MTB on CCR too.
How do you define "best unit in OCR"? By price only????
In this case, I can fore-tell that JGateway, marketed as the "best unit in OCR" and hence got carrot head buying at $1700+ psf, will not be able to hold up that kind of price with surrounding condos going for $900+ to $1200 psf (which is already over-priced according to Mr Khaw, Singapore Minister for National Development, when he referenced property price should be close to 2009 low and adjusted for income increase. And mind you, 2009 low in Jurong was only $400-500 psf)!
Don't play play with Minister for National Development!
If he want property price to drop, he will be able to!
See, CCR prices already crash >30% !
Now is OCR turn (we are already seeing signs).................................. :shame:
Given that CCR private condo prices went up 50% since 2009 lows and then drop 30%,
what is going to OCR private condo prices that went up by >140% since 2009 lows and have just show sign of dropping?
May be drop 30%-50% or even more??? :grey:
You have tried desperately to talk down MM and OCR in this forum. So based on your track record, I will have to take your comment on OCR as a blessing and compliment.
Me talk down OCR in this forum?
Please see the youtube video in this link below:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php/22731-5-Major-Facts-about-Singapore-that-every-Singaporean-should-understand/page14
Please watch and listen carefully from the "horse mouth"! Please don't play play with what Singapore Minister for National Development Mr Khaw had said! He said property price should be referenced to 2009 low and its increase should be inline with income increase! I didn't say this, Mr Khaw said this! I am just pointing out to people don't know that OCR property price like those in Jurong had gone up by >140% since 2009 low!!!!!!!!
Are you going to say that Mr Khaw desperately talking down property prices? If so you better watched out! Mr Khaw has the power to implement more new cooling measures to ensure that the property price increase since 2009 low (of $400-500 psf) is inline with income increase!
You have tried desperately to talk down MM and OCR in this forum. So based on your track record, I will have to take your comment on OCR as a blessing and compliment.
Me talk down OCR in this forum?
Please see the youtube video in this link below:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php/22731-5-Major-Facts-about-Singapore-that-every-Singaporean-should-understand/page14
Please watch and listen carefully from the "horse mouth"! Please don't play play with what Singapore Minister for National Development Mr Khaw had said! He said property price should be referenced to 2009 low and its increase should be inline with income increase! I didn't say this, Mr Khaw said this! I am just pointing out to people don't know that OCR property price like those in Jurong had gone up by >140% since 2009 low!!!!!!!!
Are you going to say that Mr Khaw desperately talking down property prices? If so you better watched out! Mr Khaw has the power to implement more new cooling measures to ensure that the property price increase since 2009 low (of $400-500 psf) is inline with income increase!
You must be very desperate to quote what KBW said to make it your own.
Ki Kor Liang Ki Kor Chor?
Why isn't this added to the conclusion? - people are not buying mostly due to TDSR constraints and also they understand that they will not see property prices rising at a pace like before. People are putting their dollar into alternative investments that they feel will see faster returns. Other than this there are also many other angles to examine. Our population demographics have also changed. We have many more new citizens. Some of them do not see a necessity to own a property and are happy to just rent.
I believe VIP has said she has disposed all of her investments properties. Definitely she's waiting and hoping to see prices dropping to an all time low so she can start to acquire again. The survey respondents, results and explanation are highly skewed IMO.
Analysis Using same logic:
1) Since 2009 low, CCR properties already drop to 30% increase vs 2009 low (due to cooling measures). However, high-income Singaporeans' income had increased 80-100% !!! So, CCR property prices (now $2200-$2400 psf) look very cheap vs income increase!
2) Since 2009 low, OCR properties have gone up >140% vs 2009 low to current around $1200 psf but has barely dropped (because cooling measures targeting foreigners' buying not effect at all on OCR!). However, middle-income Singaporeans' income had increase only about 20% !!! So, OCR property prices look very expensive vs income increase, so OCR property price has a lot of room to drop (to closer to 2009 lows of $500 psf !!!)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Actually I see it the other way. Singapore is really a very small country. In reality it is just a city. As SG gets more and more developed especially in the RCR and OCR neighborhoods, the price gap for properties between the different regions will naturally close up more. Of cuz there'll will still always be prestige developments that will always command a price premium. Retail and F&B outlets are often more crowded in the evenings and weekends in neighbourhood town centres than those located downtown.
I don't think the end game is to have property prices drop too much. If it drops alot further that there will be many who will have a problem. Even our policy makers will be losing $$$ unless they too have disposed all their properties?
The desired effect is for property prices to rise at a much slower pace in the future.
If prices really drop much more we will have a different kind of recession problem and the reality is that then only the very few cash flow rich will benefit.
Don't play play with Minister for National Development!
If he want property price to drop, he will be able to!
See, CCR prices already crash >30% !
Now is OCR turn (we are already seeing signs).................................. :shame:
Given that CCR private condo prices went up 50% since 2009 lows and then drop 30%,
what is going to OCR private condo prices that went up by >140% since 2009 lows and have just show sign of dropping?
May be drop 30%-50% or even more??? :grey:
Depends where u buy....if not near the mrt, I suggest u sell and buy one near the mrt....and also if u stay north, better shift somewhere central....advice from someone 15 years in the market
Actually I see it the other way. Singapore is really a very small country. In reality it is just a city. As SG gets more and more developed especially in the RCR and OCR neighborhoods, the price gap for properties between the different regions will naturally close up more. Of cuz there'll will still always be prestige developments that will always command a price premium. Retail and F&B outlets are often more crowded in the evenings and weekends in neighbourhood town centres than those located downtown.
I agree. Decentralisation efforts at play.
Government can't afford to centralise everything at CCR.
Aiyo..
Seriously you guys can turn any thread into the same line of argument everywhere you go. It's kinda tiring to see the same old debate everytime.
Look at London, about the size of Singapore........
London is really quite developed, and is like Singapore 10-20 years later.............. They even have a better and more connected underground train system than Singapore!
However, did the property price gap in London Zone 4 (similar to Singapore's OCR) with such good train connectivity closes up more with property price in London Zone 1 (similar to Singapore's CCR)?
The answer is obviously "NO"! In fact, the price ratio between London Zone 1 to London 4 can be almost 10x !!!
Singapore will likely be like London 10-20 years down the road!
Actually I see it the other way. Singapore is really a very small country. In reality it is just a city. As SG gets more and more developed especially in the RCR and OCR neighborhoods, the price gap for properties between the different regions will naturally close up more. Of cuz there'll will still always be prestige developments that will always command a price premium. Retail and F&B outlets are often more crowded in the evenings and weekends in neighbourhood town centres than those located downtown.
Isn't the cash flow rich Singaporeans already benefiting from those selling desperating in CCR because of TDSR, foreigners not buying etc?
TDSR and ABSD will both contribute to cause property prices to drop and crash, and will ultimately benefiting those cash flow rich and the rich to pick up "durians".....................
I don't think the end game is to have property prices drop too much. If it drops alot further that there will be many who will have a problem. Even our policy makers will be losing $$$ unless they too have disposed all their properties?
The desired effect is for property prices to rise at a much slower pace in the future.
If prices really drop much more we will have a different kind of recession problem and the reality is that then only the very few cash flow rich will benefit.
Look at London, about the size of Singapore........
London is really quite developed, and is like Singapore 10-20 years later.............. They even have a better and more connected underground train system than Singapore!
However, did the property price gap in London Zone 4 (similar to Singapore's OCR) with such good train connectivity closes up more with property price in London Zone 1 (similar to Singapore's CCR)?
The answer is obviously "NO"! In fact, the price ratio between London Zone 1 to London 4 can be almost 10x !!!
Singapore will likely be like London 10-20 years down the road!
Singapore is actually ahead of London in terms of infrastructure development. London is a very old city with old infrastructure, it cannot be intensify anymore and neither can they demolish those old building to build high rise infrastructure like Singapore.
In London people are paying top dollar do buy a piece of history, this is very different from Singapore. Beside, LH lands are money machine for Singapore, hence it will be in their interest to boost the land value of LH land instead of FH estate.
Dont believe, just look at Marina Bay, all FH and that is where all the action are..
London's tube can come 1 per min in frequency,
Singapore MRT train can come at 1 per min in frequency? Ha ha ha! The answer is obviously "NO" lah!
Since cannot how to be ahead of London in terms of infrastructure development?
Just look at London, they have a few circle lines!
Singapore has how many "circle line"? Obviously on 1 lah, despite being about same size as whole of London!
The infrastructure planning of London to their Zone 4 is wheel-and-spoke design, and much more efficient than Singapore's crooked MRT train tracks, designed to run through heavily populated estates to maximum profits and not for efficiency and time effectiveness.
Another reason why Singapore's infrastructure development is 2nd class to London!
Despite London's Zone 4 having access to several circle lines and more efficient than Singapore, London Zone 4's price could be as low as 10% of Zone 1! So how to expect Singapore's OCR to be close to CCR? :doh:
Singapore is actually ahead of London in terms of infrastructure development. London is a very old city with old infrastructure, it cannot be intensify anymore and neither can they demolish those old building to build high rise infrastructure like Singapore.
In London people are paying top dollar do buy a piece of history, this is very different from Singapore. Beside, LH lands are money machine for Singapore, hence it will be in their interest to boost the land value of LH land instead of FH estate.
Dont believe, just look at Marina Bay, all FH and that is where all the action are..
Just look at London, they have a few circle lines!
Singapore has how many "circle line"? Obviously on 1 lah, despite being about same size as whole of London!
Bro, just 1 gross error to point out. London's size is more than double of SG.
https://www.google.com.sg/?gws_rd=ssl#q=Size+of+London
https://www.google.com.sg/?gws_rd=ssl#q=Size+of+Singapore
Isn't the cash flow rich Singaporeans already benefiting from those selling desperating in CCR because of TDSR, foreigners not buying etc?
TDSR and ABSD will both contribute to cause property prices to drop and crash, and will ultimately benefiting those cash flow rich and the rich to pick up "durians".....................
Yep, so the net net effect of those who will really benefit most if prices drop further will again be the rich. Unless that is the real motive of our policy makers even though they say the goal is to curb price hike so that housing will still be affordable in SG for the general masses.
Yep, so the net net effect of those who will really benefit most if prices drop further will again be the rich. Unless that is the real motive of our policy makers even though they say the goal is to curb price hike so that housing will still be affordable in SG for the general masses.
Let's imagine it this way. The rich buys in after the first wave of price drop. Price continues to drop, no/poor rental, and the first wave of rich bleeds, resulting in some offloading. A second wave of the tier 2 rich buys from some in the first wave. Price continues to drop in waves and trickle top down for a few more years before reaching equilibrium state.
What seems like benefitting the richest at first glance might also be a trap for them.
Consider the alternative scenario: If prices just keep heading north year by year, who are the real beneficiaries, and who are the main payers of the costs?
I believe VIP has said she has disposed all of her investments properties. Definitely she's waiting and hoping to see prices dropping to an all time low so she can start to acquire again. The survey respondents, results and explanation are highly skewed IMO.
While waiting try to sell books, sell seminar, get traffic on website. As LKY once said "your eyes are open". :barbershop_quartet_
Let's imagine it this way. The rich buys in after the first wave of price drop. Price continues to drop, no/poor rental, and the first wave of rich bleeds, resulting in some offloading. A second wave of the tier 2 rich buys from some in the first wave. Price continues to drop in waves and trickle top down for a few more years before reaching equilibrium state.
What seems like benefitting the richest at first glance might also be a trap for them.
Consider the alternative scenario: If prices just keep heading north year by year, who are the real beneficiaries, and who are the main payers of the costs?
If prices keep heading north at a very fast pace the existing property owners will benefit, the rich will benefit the most. The poorer and younger ones with no property will have a really hard time and we will have a serious social problem. Taiwan is a nearby example. Properties are all FH in Taiwan vs typical of 60 years LH in China. Property prices have surged so much in major cities with Chinese buying and frying up the prices. Taiwanese youngsters can no longer afford to settle down.
Because of the 95% inactive pple:
Survival instincts kick in as sluggish property market takes its time reviving
FACED with a tepid property market, Mr Nicholas Chia, 28, decided to go from selling houses to shining cars.
An estate agent since 2010, he decided to "jump ship" in the first quarter of this year, setting up car-grooming business Doorstep Detailer as well as a franchise of a pre-school enrichment centre.
"Because of the slow market, I need something to supplement my income and something in which I can tap the network I've made," he said.
Car-polishing was a natural choice: "Almost every property agent has a car, and image is important when they meet clients."
In today's sluggish property market, more agents are letting their licences lapse or trying their hand at other jobs, according to anecdotal reports.
Housing Board resale deals hit a record low of 18,100 last year. There were just 12,683 deals in the first nine months of this year, putting 2014 on track for a new low.
Private property deals this year barely hit 10,000 as of September, a number that was about the average of each quarter in 2012.
On top of more agents leaving, there is also less new blood entering the industry. According to the Council for Estate Agencies' annual report last week, there were 3,061 new registered sales professionals in the last financial year, down from 4,289 the year before.
Agents say the exodus began last year, but really gained momentum this year.
Some part-time agents have returned to their day jobs, said Dennis Wee Realty agent Priscilla Pang, who is still in the business.
Full-time agents simply took their skills elsewhere. Active PropNex agent Remus Koek said: "They are mostly still in sales, but different types of sales."
Dennis Wee Realty agent Aaron Lin said he has seen older agents turn to multi-level marketing or driving a taxi.
Alternative jobs beckon in the food and beverage as well as spa industries. Agents are also turning to forex trading, holding investment seminars and even setting up economy rice stalls.
A 41-year-old agent who wanted to be known only as Mr Ong returned to his previous field of engineering. "I'm not seasoned enough to weather the current lull," he said.
Another agent, who wished to be known as Ms Xie, 27, stopped actively advertising around April, a year after she got her licence.
"Ideally I would have continued my activities in real estate but it just wasn't viable."
Besides the slow market making it tough to close deals, the new Personal Data Protection Act has made it harder to get clients, she said. Potential leads must be checked, for a fee, against the Do Not Call list of people refusing unsolicited marketing requests.
Still, she has renewed her licence for next year - just in case.
Indeed, some agents are biding their time, noted Mr Michael Long, key executive officer of Spacez Real Estate. They have told their agencies they would let their licences lapse on the understanding they can return in 2016.
Property experts expect transaction figures to start recovering by the end of next year.
Amber Woods
28-10-14, 14:16
28 Oct1:55 PM
PROPERTY prices in Singapore have not seen a "meaningful correction" yet, said Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam on Tuesday.
"We've seen some correction in both private property prices and HDB resale prices over the last four to five quarters, but there is some distance to go in achieving a meaningful correction after the sharp run-up in prices in recent years," said the chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore at the Credit Counselling Singapore's 10th anniversary luncheon.
"If we do not get a meaningful reversal after each upswing, property prices will run ahead of the growth in household incomes in the long term. And that, we must avoid."
Didn't I say already?
OCR private condos like those in Jurong went up >140% from 2009 low and still around this peak price level, obviously sharp run-up in prices lah!
CCR private condos prices already crashed (some as much as >30-40% !!!) due to cooling measure, people already picking up "durians" with transactions almost close to 2009 low !!!! (Hence the comment: "We've seen some correction in both private property prices")
28 Oct1:55 PM
PROPERTY prices in Singapore have not seen a "meaningful correction" yet, said Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam on Tuesday.
"We've seen some correction in both private property prices and HDB resale prices over the last four to five quarters, but there is some distance to go in achieving a meaningful correction after the sharp run-up in prices in recent years," said the chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore at the Credit Counselling Singapore's 10th anniversary luncheon.
"If we do not get a meaningful reversal after each upswing, property prices will run ahead of the growth in household incomes in the long term. And that, we must avoid."
Didn't I say already?
OCR private condos like those in Jurong went up >140% from 2009 low and still around this peak price level, obviously sharp run-up in prices lah!
CCR private condos prices already crashed (some as much as >30-40% !!!) due to cooling measure, people already picking up "durians" with transactions almost close to 2009 low !!!! (Hence the comment: "We've seen some correction in both private property prices")
Do you think Tharman means whole market correction or just CCR correction? As in, is he a small picture person concerned about these micro trends or overall movement?
I think withever region, all gotta brace for more.
Do you think Tharman means whole market correction or just CCR correction? As in, is he a small picture person concerned about these micro trends or overall movement?
I think withever region, all gotta brace for more.
he's talking about aligning growth of household income with property price... so it cant be just ccr i tink
You are so right!
But obviously you need to analyze different segments also right, like HDB upgraders usually buy OCR private properties, OCR private properties went up >140% since 2009 lows, but those HDB upgraders their income only increase like about 20% since 2009, so conclusion is obvious!
he's talking about aligning growth of household income with property price... so it cant be just ccr i tink
Interesting, "aligning growth of household income with property price."
Do rental income consider part of household income.
My household income reduce by more than half, rental income from zero to more than household income.
Do this mean household income reduce, property price also reduce?????
Interesting, "aligning growth of household income with property price."
Do rental income consider part of household income.
My household income reduce by more than half, rental income from zero to more than household income.
Do this mean household income reduce, property price also reduce?????
While waiting try to sell books, sell seminar, get traffic on website. As LKY once said "your eyes are open". :barbershop_quartet_
Of course lah. No profit still being there in the market for what?
To make real money in any investment, you have to move in early when things are cheap. Make your money, exit early and pass the risk to the excited latecomers who can’t wait to get in. (from Property investor scores a home run: the unpublished version (http://propertysoul.com/2014/06/23/property-investor-scores-a-home-run-the-unpublished-version/))
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ggv7e5gusan8es0/3%20plus%201%20plan.pdf?dl=0
A couple of important things to consider:
• As you invest in more property, you will have larger sums of
cash available. This can be used to fund the cash flow on the
property (during the stagnant times) or it can be used to fund
your growing lifestyle.
• I am a big believer in never, ever selling, so after 10 years you
ideally renew the property or, if you must, sell it and then replace
it with a new property. The strategy of never selling means
that the capital gains will never become an issue for you.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ggv7e5gusan8es0/3%20plus%201%20plan.pdf?dl=0
A couple of important things to consider:
• As you invest in more property, you will have larger sums of
cash available. This can be used to fund the cash flow on the
property (during the stagnant times) or it can be used to fund
your growing lifestyle.
• I am a big believer in never, ever selling, so after 10 years you
ideally renew the property or, if you must, sell it and then replace
it with a new property. The strategy of never selling means
that the capital gains will never become an issue for you.
Your strategy is building up cashflow.I read that in many investment books. They also advocate not selling.but one must have enough reserves to tide through Rough times. But what if banks call for top ups when the valuation drops? Could u elaborate the point in bold?
walkthetiger
28-10-14, 20:40
Your strategy is building up cashflow.I read that in many investment books. They also advocate not selling.but one must have enough reserves to tide through Rough times. But what if banks call for top ups when the valuation drops? Could u elaborate the point in bold?
He has just mentioned "My household income reduce by more than half, rental income from zero to more than household income"
Maybe you can assume he had placed all his eggs in this property basket, now his household income already reduced by more than half… probably in some property related business.... and he appeared got himself stuck in this totally new situation…..hold on longer, doesn't seem good either, rental declining and interesting rate increasing..... Unless, he has very deep pocket, else good luck to him.... But if he has a deep pocket, the coming decline in price should be something good, as he can buy more properties (without much loan from the bank)...
Many roads lead to Rome.
There is no right, no wrong road.
Only how long it take to reach the destination.
Follow the Minister advise.
Let see.
CPF = SGD 480,000 after working from 1984 to now 2014, 30 years.
Buy a 4 room HDB and did not upgrade for SGD 83,000 in 1988.
Toa Payoh 01 to 05 104.00 Model A 1988 $496,000.00 Nov 2013
Asset = $496,000.00
------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow the Lord advise.
CPF = SGD 480,000 after working from 1984 to now 2014, 30 years.
5 room HDB valuation SGD 640,000. 2014
2 Bedroom valuation SGD 1,550,000. 2010
3 Bedroom PH valuation SGD 1,305,800. 2011
3 room HDB valuation SGD 300,000. 2014
Total asset = SGD 3,795,800.
Total liability = SGD 1,902,580
Thank Lord never follow human advise.
Your strategy is building up cashflow.I read that in many investment books. They also advocate not selling.but one must have enough reserves to tide through Rough times. But what if banks call for top ups when the valuation drops? Could u elaborate the point in bold?
ROI of reading the articles is quite high, if you have not read it suggest you read it.
I did not follow the interest only payment, I did the cash out part.
Property investment is about using OPM, Leverage and taking advantage of interest rate compare to inflation rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akhM7lQtAQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzH2wzg03c8
walkthetiger
28-10-14, 21:37
Follow the Minister advise.
Let see.
CPF = SGD 480,000 after working from 1984 to now 2014, 30 years.
Buy a 4 room HDB and did not upgrade for SGD 83,000 in 1988.
Toa Payoh 01 to 05 104.00 Model A 1988 $496,000.00 Nov 2013
Asset = $496,000.00
------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow the Lord advise.
CPF = SGD 480,000 after working from 1984 to now 2014, 30 years.
5 room HDB valuation SGD 640,000. 2014
2 Bedroom valuation SGD 1,550,000. 2010
3 Bedroom PH valuation SGD 1,305,800. 2011
3 room HDB valuation SGD 300,000. 2014
Total asset = SGD 3,795,800.
Total liability = SGD 1,902,580
Thank Lord never follow human advise.
Talking about Lord…
You have no problem retiring comfortably. Let's view this price decline as one chance for the younger generation to buy cheaper. The older generation had always been heading in a direction which makes the children pay...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsrtB5lp60s
Use to Wonder how I can buy million dollar property with my pay.
Finally found that you can never buy property with your pay alone.
Money is the biggest scam, wonder how long can it last.
Many roads lead to Rome.
There is no right, no wrong road.
Only how long it take to reach the destination.
Brudder, when one tries to figure out the many roads to Rome and keeps weighing the options without taking action, one is constant.... Constantly at original position....This are the 80%.....
The other 20% will decide on a direction and move....
Life is as of such....
80/20 rule...
The key is to get to that 20%...
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
Brudder, when one tries to figure out the many roads to Rome and keeps weighing the options without taking action, one is constant.... Constantly at original position....This are the 80%.....
The other 20% will decide on a direction and move....
Life is as of such....
80/20 rule...
The key is to get to that 20%...
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
In this thread it is 5% versus 95%?
In this thread it is 5% versus 95%?
Ok.... Don't buy.... Trust the 95%. You won't go wrong.... Remember, follow the herd....
When everyone don't buy, please don't buy....
👍👍👍👍👍👍
Your strategy is building up cashflow.I read that in many investment books. They also advocate not selling.but one must have enough reserves to tide through Rough times. But what if banks call for top ups when the valuation drops? Could u elaborate the point in bold?
I think even in the dark days of 1997, no banks requested for top ups. The problem cases were those who cant service their loans. Anyway SG has a min 20% safety buffer for you to play around with.
That said, there are some dangerous assumptions in the book, such as doubling of property prices every 10 years, re-mortgaging existing property & using the proceeds to buy another property, and borrowing from family and friends to fund property purchases.......
Esp on the doubling of property prices in SG. How likely is it that in 2024, Jurong Gateway condo prices will reach S$3k psf? Or Woodlands condo to reach $2k psf in 2024?
Amber Woods
29-10-14, 10:05
In this thread it is 5% versus 95%?
If this survey was carried out in 2011, probably 95% would want to buy and 5% would not buy. So in 2011, many follow the herd to buy and now get stuck with their inflated assets. The 5% who did not buy could well be the winner later on.
So now year 2014 is the reverse, 95% has no plan to buy and only 5% want to buy. So should one follow the herd not to buy or follow the 5% to buy now and hope to be a winner later on?
DPM Therman already said that "prices have not corrected to meaningful level" meaning that this is just the start of the correction. Follow the herd now may be right but know when to disband with them and make that call. Because of fear and greed, not many people will get it right when the time to make that call comes around and again 80% will miss the boat. This is how things work.
AssetRichMoneyPoor
29-10-14, 10:06
in my humble opinion, the desired correction should aim towards below (presume an avg 3bedder 1200sqft unit)
sengkang/punggol/jurong/yishun etc <1000psf
amk/bishan/redhill/katong/siglap/westcoast etc 1300-1400psf
rivervalley/sophia/bugis etc 1600-1700psf
orchard/somerset/marinabay/shentonway/keppel etc >1800psf
sentosa >1500psf
*disclaimer : taken with a pinch of salt
in my humble opinion, the desired correction should aim towards below (presume an avg 3bedder 1200sqft unit)
sengkang/punggol/jurong/yishun etc <1000psf
amk/bishan/redhill/katong/siglap/westcoast etc 1300-1400psf
rivervalley/sophia/bugis etc 1600-1700psf
orchard/somerset/marinabay/shentonway/keppel etc >1800psf
sentosa >1500psf
*disclaimer : taken with a pinch of salt
put down as CCR,OCR,RCR psf will be clearer to all..
AssetRichMoneyPoor
29-10-14, 10:22
put down as CCR,OCR,RCR psf will be clearer to all..
I personally don't like the CCR/RCR/OCR categorization as some are very debatable. I prefer to look at specific area itself.
Btw there was an error on my part. Sentosa <1500psf :)
Ok.... Don't buy.... Trust the 95%. You won't go wrong.... Remember, follow the herd....
When everyone don't buy, please don't buy....
������������
Actually many in the herd want to buy but the costs and the CMs made it out of reach for them.
The survey honestly does appear biased as well. 5% saying they are buying NOW could also mean that another 15-25% intending to buy in the next three years, just not now.
Yah lar, the survey is very biased... many friends in my group can easily afford a 3rd or 4th property.. but to pay additional 10% ABSD.. how to swallow?
I personally don't like the CCR/RCR/OCR categorization as some are very debatable. I prefer to look at specific area itself.
Btw there was an error on my part. Sentosa <1500psf :)
Stop throwing darts in the dark.
AssetRichMoneyPoor
29-10-14, 12:10
Stop throwing darts in the dark.
Poser, still waiting for your reply in lakeville & jgate threads.
Feign ignorance as usual after created an upheaval in the west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKCvB6rTO0k
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.2 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.