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05-01-15, 16:43
http://www.straitstimes.com/archive/saturday/premium/top-the-news/story/private-and-hdb-home-markets-slip-further-q4-20150103
Private and HDB home markets slip further in Q4
Price falls confirm trend, experts expect it to continue in 2015
Published on Jan 3, 2015 12:51 AM
By Cheryl Ong
SINGAPORE'S cooling property market ended 2014 with fresh evidence of tumbling prices in both the private and public markets.
Analysts expect more of the same for this year.
Private home prices fell 4 per cent over the past 12 months, the first full-year decline since 2008. And HDB flat prices sank by an estimated 6.1 per cent for last year.
The figures for the final three months of the year confirmed a trend brought on by a slew of government cooling measures and borrowing restrictions.
In the three months to Dec 31, HDB resale prices dipped 1.4 per cent, flash figures showed, using a revised method that takes into account flat characteristics, to better reflect prices changes over time. That compared with a 1.7 per cent decline in the preceding quarter, using the adjusted figures.
HDB prices are now down 7.7 per cent over five straight quarters since the fourth quarter of 2013. They also fell 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2013, but the HDB did not give a revised figure for that period.
In the private market, prices sank 1 per cent in the fourth quarter, exceeding the 0.7 per cent dip in the preceding three months.
Last quarter's results also marked the fifth straight quarter of tumbling home values - the longest losing streak in 10 years.
The latest figures came as no surprise, given the noticeable downtrend even before the start of 2014, as the various government measures hammered the market. Ms Christine Li, research head at OrangeTee, attributed the sluggish market to "mismatched price expectations".
Despite rising mortgagee sales, most home owners and developers are holding firm to their selling expectations amid low interest rates, say experts. Buyers, however, are staying away, amid fears of catching a falling knife.
Ms Chia Siew Chuin, head of research and advisory at Colliers, said the moderation in private home prices was "better aligned" with slower economic growth.
"It is an indication the market is being steered from a state of excess exuberance... towards greater stability and sustainability."
The pace of decline also seems "measured", given the 62.3 per cent run-up since the second quarter of 2009, experts added.
Analysts bandied around forecasts of an 8 per cent to 10 per cent fall at the start of 2014, but yesterday's figures were well below those predictions.
Further slides of 5 per cent to 8 per cent for the public and private markets are expected this year, given a record 23,769 units to be completed this year.
The HDB said it will have four Built-To-Order (BTO) exercises this year, which will add 16,900 units to the supply. They include non-mature estates, such as Bidadari and Punggol Northshore, as well as mature estates, including Bukit Batok, Geylang and Hougang, which are nearer the city.
The first BTO exercise, next month, will offer 3,940 new flats.
[email protected]
Private and HDB home markets slip further in Q4
Price falls confirm trend, experts expect it to continue in 2015
Published on Jan 3, 2015 12:51 AM
By Cheryl Ong
SINGAPORE'S cooling property market ended 2014 with fresh evidence of tumbling prices in both the private and public markets.
Analysts expect more of the same for this year.
Private home prices fell 4 per cent over the past 12 months, the first full-year decline since 2008. And HDB flat prices sank by an estimated 6.1 per cent for last year.
The figures for the final three months of the year confirmed a trend brought on by a slew of government cooling measures and borrowing restrictions.
In the three months to Dec 31, HDB resale prices dipped 1.4 per cent, flash figures showed, using a revised method that takes into account flat characteristics, to better reflect prices changes over time. That compared with a 1.7 per cent decline in the preceding quarter, using the adjusted figures.
HDB prices are now down 7.7 per cent over five straight quarters since the fourth quarter of 2013. They also fell 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2013, but the HDB did not give a revised figure for that period.
In the private market, prices sank 1 per cent in the fourth quarter, exceeding the 0.7 per cent dip in the preceding three months.
Last quarter's results also marked the fifth straight quarter of tumbling home values - the longest losing streak in 10 years.
The latest figures came as no surprise, given the noticeable downtrend even before the start of 2014, as the various government measures hammered the market. Ms Christine Li, research head at OrangeTee, attributed the sluggish market to "mismatched price expectations".
Despite rising mortgagee sales, most home owners and developers are holding firm to their selling expectations amid low interest rates, say experts. Buyers, however, are staying away, amid fears of catching a falling knife.
Ms Chia Siew Chuin, head of research and advisory at Colliers, said the moderation in private home prices was "better aligned" with slower economic growth.
"It is an indication the market is being steered from a state of excess exuberance... towards greater stability and sustainability."
The pace of decline also seems "measured", given the 62.3 per cent run-up since the second quarter of 2009, experts added.
Analysts bandied around forecasts of an 8 per cent to 10 per cent fall at the start of 2014, but yesterday's figures were well below those predictions.
Further slides of 5 per cent to 8 per cent for the public and private markets are expected this year, given a record 23,769 units to be completed this year.
The HDB said it will have four Built-To-Order (BTO) exercises this year, which will add 16,900 units to the supply. They include non-mature estates, such as Bidadari and Punggol Northshore, as well as mature estates, including Bukit Batok, Geylang and Hougang, which are nearer the city.
The first BTO exercise, next month, will offer 3,940 new flats.
[email protected]