View Full Version : Enough home supply for up to 2030
http://www.todayonline.com/business/property/enough-home-supply-2030?singlepage=true
Property
Enough home supply for up to 2030
http://i.imgur.com/6qQBXHV.jpg
Table 2: Historical 10-year population growth versus total stock of residential units
http://i.imgur.com/R5L5gAp.jpg
Expected completion of new residential units in Singapore
By Ku Swee Yong
[email protected]
Published: 4:12 AM, January 16, 2015
Many property market participants remain in denial about the housing oversupply situation, with investors and real estate agents hoping that the outlook will improve while they ignore the growing difficulties in securing tenants amid stiff competition among landlords.
It should be clear by now that the residential property segment is heavily oversupplied.
Vacancies of private homes at 7.1 per cent equate to more than 21,000 empty units at the end of last September, Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data showed. Meanwhile, the stock of vacant Executive Condominiums (ECs) rose sharply to 2,375 units, or 16.2 per cent, at the end of September from 1,634 units, or 12.2 per cent at the end of June. And more homes are being built, putting further pressure on the market. We can expect a total residential supply of 150,689 units within three years and possibly another 35,000 units in 2018.
Table 1 shows the expected completion of new residential units — private, EC as well as HDB — from this year to 2017. The figures are compiled from projects currently under way and in various stages of completion, starting from land sales and HDB’s Build-To-Order (BTO) launches. Given that the pace of construction is usually ahead of developers’ planned schedules, we can expect the large supply to come into the market earlier.
Those who deny there is an oversupply of homes point to the Population White Paper published in January 2013 that outlined Singapore’s plans to allow for the population to increase to 6.9 million by 2030. In the same paper, it was stated that “sufficient land has been set aside for an additional 700,000 homes from today, and more in the longer term if there is a need”.
This implies that over the 17-year period from 2013 to 2030, we can expect population growth of 94,000 and an increase of 41,000 residential units per year on average. So those hopeful investors and property agents hold the opinion that while there may be some oversupply in the next few years, the excess supply will be small.
In my opinion, the forecast number of housing units is overestimated — and by a large margin. An increase of 94,000 in the population per year does not require an increase of 41,000 housing units, or about 2.3 persons per residential unit, because:
1. New population growth in the categories of “Dependants of Citizens/PRs/Work Pass Holders”, “Work Permit Holders” and “Foreign Domestic Workers” (which together take up 74 per cent of our non-resident population) does not take up significant additional housing units as the majority have their accommodation provided for by their employers at home or in workers’ dormitories;
2. New foreign students in Singapore (accounting for 6 per cent of non-residents) often choose to stay in hostels.
Furthermore, if we look back to the period with the highest population growth and look at the increase in the total number of homes, we will realise that the 700,000 additional housing units is grossly overestimated.
During the last decade, Singapore’s population growth averaged 130,000 per year, with the peak increase of 251,000 in 2008 (see Table 2). We managed to accommodate 1.3 million more people with an additional 151,475 residential units — or about one additional housing unit per 8.6 new persons in Singapore. This means that the 150,689 units that are expected to be completed from now to 2017 can accommodate another 1.3 million population growth.
Singapore’s population was about 5.4 million at the end of last June. Taken together, it means that if we simply allowed the current residential projects in the pipeline to be completed, we can already accommodate a population of 6.7 million. And if we take into account the current vacancy of 23,375 private residential and EC units (as at end-September last year), we can just about accommodate the 6.9 million planned for 2030.
About the author:
Ku Swee Yong is a licensed real estate agent and the chief executive of property firm Century 21 Singapore. He recently launched his third book “Real Estate Realities – Accommodating the Investment Needs of Today’s Society.”
Amber Woods
17-01-15, 09:07
It is nice to hear from a real estate agent himself coming to term with the facts rather than trying to "mislead or distort" the facts as with many other "respected" figures in the industry. Swee Yong is one of the very few vested individual whom you want to take note of when he speaks. This has got to do with the fact that he not only sell property but also sell his writing (books).
Since he says there is excess home supply, should we start selling our properties and wait for price to correct 30% bfo we buy? Why I didn't hear him saying he selling his own units , based on his research? If he is setting an example for us to follow, then is worth thinking about ... talk is free
Amber Woods
17-01-15, 10:32
Since he says there is excess home supply, should we start selling our properties and wait for price to correct 30% bfo we buy? Why I didn't hear him saying he selling his own units , based on his research? If he is setting an example for us to follow, then is worth thinking about ... talk is free
I do not think any public figure would ever share with the public their investment portfolio or strategy. Swee Yong is kind to share with us his research and analysis. It is up to us to digest it. Different people make different decision base on the same information, hence there will always have sone people who gain and some people who loose.
"We managed to accommodate 1.3 million more people with an additional 151,475 residential units — or about one additional housing unit per 8.6 new persons in Singapore. This means that the 150,689 units that are expected to be completed from now to 2017 can accommodate another 1.3 million population growth."
How to fit 8.6 new persons into 1 MM?
Sizes of homes has decreased drastically since 2008. The new properties now cannot fit 8.6 new persons like they did in the past.
Amber Woods
17-01-15, 12:14
This is what we call "selected reading". We should read the entire article and not the particular paragraph which is meaningless by itself.
"We managed to accommodate 1.3 million more people with an additional 151,475 residential units — or about one additional housing unit per 8.6 new persons in Singapore. This means that the 150,689 units that are expected to be completed from now to 2017 can accommodate another 1.3 million population growth."
How to fit 8.6 new persons into 1 MM?
Sizes of homes has decreased drastically since 2008. The new properties now cannot fit 8.6 new persons like they did in the past.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/property/enough-home-supply-2030?singlepage=true
Property
Enough home supply for up to 2030
http://i.imgur.com/6qQBXHV.jpg
Table 2: Historical 10-year population growth versus total stock of residential units
http://i.imgur.com/R5L5gAp.jpg
Expected completion of new residential units in Singapore
By Ku Swee Yong
[email protected]
Published: 4:12 AM, January 16, 2015
In my opinion, the forecast number of housing units is overestimated — and by a large margin. An increase of 94,000 in the population per year does not require an increase of 41,000 housing units, or about 2.3 persons per residential unit, because:
1. New population growth in the categories of “Dependants of Citizens/PRs/Work Pass Holders”, “Work Permit Holders” and “Foreign Domestic Workers” (which together take up 74 per cent of our non-resident population) does not take up significant additional housing units as the majority have their accommodation provided for by their employers at home or in workers’ dormitories;
2. New foreign students in Singapore (accounting for 6 per cent of non-residents) often choose to stay in hostels.
Furthermore, if we look back to the period with the highest population growth and look at the increase in the total number of homes, we will realise that the 700,000 additional housing units is grossly overestimated.
During the last decade, Singapore’s population growth averaged 130,000 per year, with the peak increase of 251,000 in 2008 (see Table 2). We managed to accommodate 1.3 million more people with an additional 151,475 residential units — or about one additional housing unit per 8.6 new persons in Singapore. This means that the 150,689 units that are expected to be completed from now to 2017 can accommodate another 1.3 million population growth.
Singapore’s population was about 5.4 million at the end of last June. Taken together, it means that if we simply allowed the current residential projects in the pipeline to be completed, we can already accommodate a population of 6.7 million. And if we take into account the current vacancy of 23,375 private residential and EC units (as at end-September last year), we can just about accommodate the 6.9 million planned for 2030.
About the author:
Ku Swee Yong is a licensed real estate agent and the chief executive of property firm Century 21 Singapore. He recently launched his third book “Real Estate Realities – Accommodating the Investment Needs of Today’s Society.”
Enough home supply is wat the garment assure, so nothing to worry or concern, most people also know
fundamentally his argument is sound .. you do not expect the 1.3m increase to be made up of totally professions who can afford housing, or even private housing.
meaning < 40% of this increase are of quality. that is probably why our houses are still maintaining its prices and the increase is stopped simply by policy means ..
once that's removed .. the demand surges back. For all you know, the propaganda of making u believe there's oversupply was to prevent the continued runaway in housing prices.
Amber Woods
17-01-15, 14:23
fundamentally his argument is sound .. you do not expect the 1.3m increase to be made up of totally professions who can afford housing, or even private housing.
meaning < 40% of this increase are of quality. that is probably why our houses are still maintaining its prices and the increase is stopped simply by policy means ..
once that's removed .. the demand surges back. For all you know, the propaganda of making u believe there's oversupply was to prevent the continued runaway in housing prices.
Propaganda? Swee Yong is a property agent himself.
Propaganda? Swee Yong is a property agent himself.
Very tempted to give you a clue. But better not...
All the best for your decisions!
that is why I think property market sector that has yet to crash, mainly OCR, will crash within 2-3 years! :o
http://www.todayonline.com/business/property/enough-home-supply-2030?singlepage=true
Property
Enough home supply for up to 2030
http://i.imgur.com/6qQBXHV.jpg
Table 2: Historical 10-year population growth versus total stock of residential units
http://i.imgur.com/R5L5gAp.jpg
Expected completion of new residential units in Singapore
By Ku Swee Yong
[email protected]
Published: 4:12 AM, January 16, 2015
Many property market participants remain in denial about the housing oversupply situation, with investors and real estate agents hoping that the outlook will improve while they ignore the growing difficulties in securing tenants amid stiff competition among landlords.
It should be clear by now that the residential property segment is heavily oversupplied.
Vacancies of private homes at 7.1 per cent equate to more than 21,000 empty units at the end of last September, Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data showed. Meanwhile, the stock of vacant Executive Condominiums (ECs) rose sharply to 2,375 units, or 16.2 per cent, at the end of September from 1,634 units, or 12.2 per cent at the end of June. And more homes are being built, putting further pressure on the market. We can expect a total residential supply of 150,689 units within three years and possibly another 35,000 units in 2018.
Table 1 shows the expected completion of new residential units — private, EC as well as HDB — from this year to 2017. The figures are compiled from projects currently under way and in various stages of completion, starting from land sales and HDB’s Build-To-Order (BTO) launches. Given that the pace of construction is usually ahead of developers’ planned schedules, we can expect the large supply to come into the market earlier.
Those who deny there is an oversupply of homes point to the Population White Paper published in January 2013 that outlined Singapore’s plans to allow for the population to increase to 6.9 million by 2030. In the same paper, it was stated that “sufficient land has been set aside for an additional 700,000 homes from today, and more in the longer term if there is a need”.
This implies that over the 17-year period from 2013 to 2030, we can expect population growth of 94,000 and an increase of 41,000 residential units per year on average. So those hopeful investors and property agents hold the opinion that while there may be some oversupply in the next few years, the excess supply will be small.
In my opinion, the forecast number of housing units is overestimated — and by a large margin. An increase of 94,000 in the population per year does not require an increase of 41,000 housing units, or about 2.3 persons per residential unit, because:
1. New population growth in the categories of “Dependants of Citizens/PRs/Work Pass Holders”, “Work Permit Holders” and “Foreign Domestic Workers” (which together take up 74 per cent of our non-resident population) does not take up significant additional housing units as the majority have their accommodation provided for by their employers at home or in workers’ dormitories;
2. New foreign students in Singapore (accounting for 6 per cent of non-residents) often choose to stay in hostels.
Furthermore, if we look back to the period with the highest population growth and look at the increase in the total number of homes, we will realise that the 700,000 additional housing units is grossly overestimated.
During the last decade, Singapore’s population growth averaged 130,000 per year, with the peak increase of 251,000 in 2008 (see Table 2). We managed to accommodate 1.3 million more people with an additional 151,475 residential units — or about one additional housing unit per 8.6 new persons in Singapore. This means that the 150,689 units that are expected to be completed from now to 2017 can accommodate another 1.3 million population growth.
Singapore’s population was about 5.4 million at the end of last June. Taken together, it means that if we simply allowed the current residential projects in the pipeline to be completed, we can already accommodate a population of 6.7 million. And if we take into account the current vacancy of 23,375 private residential and EC units (as at end-September last year), we can just about accommodate the 6.9 million planned for 2030.
About the author:
Ku Swee Yong is a licensed real estate agent and the chief executive of property firm Century 21 Singapore. He recently launched his third book “Real Estate Realities – Accommodating the Investment Needs of Today’s Society.”
Amber Woods
17-01-15, 16:44
that is why I think property market sector that has yet to crash, mainly OCR, will crash within 2-3 years! :o
From the way the market behaves, this is likely the case.
Amber Woods
17-01-15, 16:59
Very tempted to give you a clue. But better not...
All the best for your decisions!
There is no decision to be made. I am here just to share, contribute and learn.
Allthepies
17-01-15, 17:34
Very tempted to give you a clue. But better not...
All the best for your decisions!
Can share share your clue?
If not openly, can PM : )
Number of marriages a year - ave 25k
How many will stay with parents or in-laws? How many will apply hdb and how many will get private????
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/publications/publications_and_papers/marriages_and_divorces/smd2013.pdf
Look around and see how many of your married colleagues are staying with parents/in-laws and how many applied for hdb and or buying hdb. Do the ratio and you can deduce something....
Allthepies
17-01-15, 18:59
That is very insightful :kiwi-fruit::kiwi-fruit:
Amber Woods
17-01-15, 19:25
The number of person per household has been decreasing due in part to smaller household and in part due to married children moving out. Statistically, this ratio should also account for marriages if the we use this ratio to determine supply. Furthermore, with parents moving out to stay with married children, these now vacant flats add to the supply side and also influence the ratio as well. I think the equation is much more complex.
Amber Woods
17-01-15, 19:59
The number of person per household has been decreasing due in part to smaller household and in part due to married children moving out. Statistically, this ratio should also account for marriages if the we use this ratio to determine supply. Furthermore, with parents moving out to stay with married children, these now vacant flats add to the supply side and also influence the ratio as well. I think the equation is much more complex.
Nevertheless, Swee Yong's article does appear to have included all demand including marriages. Hence, it is rather insightful.
Can share share your clue?
If not openly, can PM : )
Hehe if minister (e.g. Mr Khaw and Mr Tan CJ) says this story, will be a different meaning.
My clue is to analyse why Swee Yong said that. Jiak bar nothing to do go and help publish something out of fairness that affects his livelihood? What is the intended audience, and truly how will he be affected by what he say?
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Build_to_order_(HDB)
The beauty of bto......
Build when orders reach 60-70%.
So will all the BTOs be taken up?????
How many % are 2nd time applicant?????
Hdb has learnt from the pungol/sengkang experience in 1997 and will never repeat overbuilding.... Thus bto is in play.
Cal 25k marriages
From 2005 to 2014. Total marriages = 25k x10 years = 250k marriages. How many homes needed????
Amber Woods
18-01-15, 03:23
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Build_to_order_(HDB)
The beauty of bto......
Build when orders reach 60-70%.
So will all the BTOs be taken up?????
How many % are 2nd time applicant?????
Hdb has learnt from the pungol/sengkang experience in 1997 and will never repeat overbuilding.... Thus bto is in play.
Cal 25k marriages
From 2005 to 2014. Total marriages = 25k x10 years = 250k marriages. How many homes needed????
We just saw LHL on TV talking about his lessons learned the past 10 years and that include not building enough infrastructure to accommodate and house the additional population which lead to unhappiness during GE 2011. Mr Khaw also talked about from BTO to BFO (Build Before Order). I think this government has learnt its lesson with the then Mr Mah as Minister for National Development.
Swee Yong's article has included all demand including demand by newly married couples.
Amber Woods
18-01-15, 03:32
Hehe if minister (e.g. Mr Khaw and Mr Tan CJ) says this story, will be a different meaning.
My clue is to analyse why Swee Yong said that. Jiak bar nothing to do go and help publish something out of fairness that affects his livelihood? What is the intended audience, and truly how will he be affected by what he say?
His livelihood also includes the royalty he earned from selling his books. As such, he could afford to state his views that are consistent with his findings unlike others real estate agents whose livelihood depend solely on selling property.
Swee Yong has proven over the years to be more credible in his analysis than his peers in the real estate industry.
We just saw LHL on TV talking about his lessons learned the past 10 years and that include not building enough infrastructure to accommodate and house the additional population which lead to unhappiness during GE 2011. Mr Khaw also talked about from BTO to BFO (Build Before Order). I think this government has learnt its lesson with the then Mr Mah as Minister for National Development.
Swee Yong's article has included all demand including demand by newly married couples.
Open up your mind and do the calculation to contradict. Learn to challenge with facts. Do not follow blindly. Challenge and find the truth.
Do the calculation on marriage, PRs, Foreigners (minus labourers).
If u heard LHL, what did he say about foreigners????
What the govt doing is correct, build infra in advance....
But always remember, inflation will always beat deflation over long term....
Amber Woods
18-01-15, 03:42
Open up your mind and do the calculation to contradict. Learn to challenge with facts. Do not follow blindly. Challenge and find the truth.
We always challenge the views or facts from vested people in the industry. In fact, we should never believe them.
We always challenge the views or facts from vested people in the industry. In fact, we should never believe them.
Challenge with numbers....
Please calculate on the marriage portion and see if hdb is building sufficient????
For every bto, is it over subscribed or undersubscribed????
what the govt is doing is rite. Stop the runaway prices created by QE.
To be frank, the article is only useful with those facts consolidated into table....:-)
Maybe he trying to generate activities since whether buy or sell, they also earn. But when all standing by the fense, they earn nothing, so more free time to write and talk la.
The key lies with the garmen. Oversupply or under, it is just a matter of twicking a few policies.
And that's what garmen is waiting. They are preparing ahead. Without getting ready, they cannot twick......So those who don't know, the situation looks bad, and those who have foresight, they will have no worries, and they will time to buy.......and not time to sell.....
So when someone openly say that there is over supply, then naturally I would think that either they trying to generate activities or they also looking to buy more. :-D unless they very confident and said that they have divest their portfolio....this is also my two cents.....my guess...
if they say over supply, market will be down and yet, keeping what they have, then what do u think about their comment......just my thoughts...:)
Hehe if minister (e.g. Mr Khaw and Mr Tan CJ) says this story, will be a different meaning.
My clue is to analyse why Swee Yong said that. Jiak bar nothing to do go and help publish something out of fairness that affects his livelihood? What is the intended audience, and truly how will he be affected by what he say?
Amber Woods
18-01-15, 09:44
The
Challenge with numbers....
Please calculate on the marriage portion and see if hdb is building sufficient????
For every bto, is it over subscribed or undersubscribed????
what the govt is doing is rite. Stop the runaway prices created by QE.
It is a know fact that the number of applicant for BTO flats have been falling to manageable level during the ast few exercises, hence HDB reduces the supply and change it to quarterly exercise instead of two monthly. Base on the numbers, HDB is confident in meeting the needs of newly married couples, second timers and even the minority lot. HDB has indeed learnt its lesson.
There are too many variables to consider and probable only HDB has a better idea the real demand for BTO flats from newly married couples given the large numbers of rejects from these successful applicatants.
Hence, Swee Yong numbers which take into consideration all demands including newly marriied couples is good indication of the actual demand.
During a bull market, there is a lot more induced demand and speculative demand, not real demand. These demands will vanish when prices start coming down. It was such demand that was causing upward price movement of the market during the bull period and is the same demand that is causing the falling prices in a bear market.
The
It is a know fact that the number of applicant for BTO flats have been falling to manageable level during the ast few exercises, hence HDB reduces the supply and change it to quarterly exercise instead of two monthly. Base on the numbers, HDB is confident in meeting the needs of newly married couples, second timers and even the minority lot. HDB has indeed learnt its lesson.
There are too many variables to consider and probable only HDB has a better idea the real demand for BTO flats from newly married couples given the large numbers of rejects from these successful applicatants.
Hence, Swee Yong numbers which take into consideration all demands including newly marriied couples is good indication of the actual demand.
During a bull market, there is a lot more induced demand and speculative demand, not real demand. These demands will vanish when prices start coming down. It was such demand that was causing upward price movement of the market during the bull period and is the same demand that is causing the falling prices in a bear market.
Foreigners statistics
http://www.mom.gov.sg/statistics-publications/others/statistics/Pages/ForeignWorkforceNumbers.aspx
Unemployment rate in singapore
http://www.mom.gov.sg/newsroom/Pages/PressReleasesDetail.aspx?listid=606
Growth forecast
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/quick-takes-singapores-economic-outlook-in-2014-and-2015
I believe prices will drop some more but will not crash.... With all the cooling measures... If there were no cooling measures, I would believe price will crash.... Hahahahaha
Welcome back Chestnut.
Have been missing your posting.
You went overseas?
my dog also knows it's oversupplied. Need him to tell us?
There are unit brought not for staying and rental but as Inflation hedge. Before the World money printing exercise anyone have problem with CPF money not enough ?
Welcome back Chestnut.
Have been missing your posting.
You went overseas?
Hi Werther, retired liao.... Been busy doing financial spring cleaning.... Hahahahah
Ku said :
"Singapore’s population was about 5.4 million at the end of last June. Taken together, it means that if we simply allowed the current residential projects in the pipeline to be completed, we can already accommodate a population of 6.7 million. And if we take into account the current vacancy of 23,375 private residential and EC units (as at end-September last year), we can just about accommodate the 6.9 million planned for 2030."
Does that mean HDB do not need to build any more new hdb???? So the 25k newly married couples each year will now need to buy from resale market????
Govt should stop doing GLS?????
Very cheem.... So who agrees with Ku, please share thoughts on his statement.
How is retired life?
Hi Werther, retired liao.... Been busy doing financial spring cleaning.... Hahahahah
invigorated
19-01-15, 10:40
my dog also knows it's oversupplied. Need him to tell us?
From how fervent the market was not that many moons ago, obviously some only start to dawn on this now. Some industry players are still in denial. Your dog probably knows more than them.
invigorated
19-01-15, 10:51
Ku said :
"Singapore’s population was about 5.4 million at the end of last June. Taken together, it means that if we simply allowed the current residential projects in the pipeline to be completed, we can already accommodate a population of 6.7 million. And if we take into account the current vacancy of 23,375 private residential and EC units (as at end-September last year), we can just about accommodate the 6.9 million planned for 2030."
Does that mean HDB do not need to build any more new hdb???? So the 25k newly married couples each year will now need to buy from resale market????
Govt should stop doing GLS?????
Very cheem.... So who agrees with Ku, please share thoughts on his statement.
I think he was just saying this as a hypothetical note. Govt will not plan for just 100% so I doubt they will stop on gls n bto. Supply wouldn't always just meet demand as we take into account other variables such as investors buying to hedge against inflation, as others have stated earlier.
Now even PM says that 6.9mil wasn't a target and we may fall short. Anyone read about it too?
Quote from article:
“We have to plan in future less conservatively and try to be less precise in our prognostications,” said Mr Lee, adding that the external environment has a huge bearing – apart from government policies - on how the country shapes up in the next decade.
It is precisely with this approach that the Government put up the Population White Paper last year, with a 6.9 million population planning parameter for 2030 which was, however, misunderstood by the public as a target. “We do not want 6.9 million as a target but I want to have infrastructure… I want to get myself ready. If unexpected things happen, I can be prepared,” Mr Lee said. “That is the attitude which the Government needs even more, and so does the population. And when things turn out not quite right, well, we accept that that is the way the world is.”
http://m.todayonline.com/singapore/govt-has-drawn-lessons-planning-inadequacy-pm
I think he was just saying this as a hypothetical note. Govt will not plan for just 100% so I doubt they will stop on gls n bto. Supply wouldn't always just meet demand as we take into account other variables such as investors buying to hedge against inflation, as others have stated earlier.
Now even PM says that 6.9mil wasn't a target and we may fall short. Anyone read about it too?
Quote from article:
“We have to plan in future less conservatively and try to be less precise in our prognostications,” said Mr Lee, adding that the external environment has a huge bearing – apart from government policies - on how the country shapes up in the next decade.
It is precisely with this approach that the Government put up the Population White Paper last year, with a 6.9 million population planning parameter for 2030 which was, however, misunderstood by the public as a target. “We do not want 6.9 million as a target but I want to have infrastructure… I want to get myself ready. If unexpected things happen, I can be prepared,” Mr Lee said. “That is the attitude which the Government needs even more, and so does the population. And when things turn out not quite right, well, we accept that that is the way the world is.”
http://m.todayonline.com/singapore/govt-has-drawn-lessons-planning-inadequacy-pm
Haha, Lee is making caveats because of upcoming election. If you read the white paper, the wordings specifically refer to 6.9 million population as a target and goal, and his party endorsed it and passed it in parliament. It will eventually be 7 million or more if we go by historical population growth achieved in the past decades, which is the plan all along.
bargain hunter
19-01-15, 13:08
the article does not take into account the breakdown of the units. many more 1 and 2 bedders (mickey and non mickey) were sold than 3 bedders.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2015/1/80360/we-should-have-built-more-hdb-flats-pm-lee
Chestnut and PM Lee's words are definitely more credible.
Some big problems with Ku calculations that I am surprised no one raised.
Ku said :
"Singapore’s population was about 5.4 million at the end of last June. Taken together, it means that if we simply allowed the current residential projects in the pipeline to be completed, we can already accommodate a population of 6.7 million. And if we take into account the current vacancy of 23,375 private residential and EC units (as at end-September last year), we can just about accommodate the 6.9 million planned for 2030."
Does that mean HDB do not need to build any more new hdb???? So the 25k newly married couples each year will now need to buy from resale market????
Govt should stop doing GLS?????
Very cheem.... So who agrees with Ku, please share thoughts on his statement.
based on Ku ariticle, by 2017 we have enough homes to last until 2030 with 6.9M population in target
does that mean unsold units will be left empty for 13 years until 2030? lol
Does that mean HDB do not need to build any more new hdb???? So the 25k newly married couples each year will now need to buy from resale market????
he is not counting segment by segment. he merely takes the total housing supply number and compare with the total projected demand. 25k new couple each year goes towards adding to that 6.9mil number. The current new units in the pipeline as a whole can cater to the total demand, according to his household ratio.
if you take the above as a premise and go one further step, seeing BTOs are already "taken" (since "BTO"), you can observe the even more interesting corollary from his theory : HDB is "properly" supplied (as you noted, "BTO" for the yearly new couples are yet to be built), Pte is GROSSLY over-supplied, (i.e. even if all the new couples can afford pte, the total supply will "just about meet").
Personally I think this statistics analysis is hard to do. 1st so many tiny MMs/1bds/2bds/"investment only units" are built, these are not properly accounted for in this kind of "nb persons per unit". 2nd there are no clear/enough data on how many ppl staying with parents and planning to move out. 3rd many of these "investment units" are bought as inflation hedge/parking assets, there is nothing special keeping them vacant (CCR vacancy rate even during good time is 3plus%)
he is not counting segment by segment. he merely takes the total housing supply number and compare with the total projected demand. 25k new couple each year goes towards adding to that 6.9mil number. The current new units in the pipeline as a whole can cater to the total demand, according to his household ratio.
if you take the above as a premise and go one further step, seeing BTOs are already "taken" (since "BTO"), you can observe the even more interesting corollary from his theory : HDB is "properly" supplied (as you noted, "BTO" for the yearly new couples are yet to be built), Pte is GROSSLY over-supplied, (i.e. even if all the new couples can afford pte, the total supply will "just about meet").
Personally I think this statistics analysis is hard to do. 1st so many tiny MMs/1bds/2bds/"investment only units" are built, these are not properly accounted for in this kind of "nb persons per unit". 2nd there are no clear/enough data on how many ppl staying with parents and planning to move out. 3rd many of these "investment units" are bought as inflation hedge/parking assets, there is nothing special keeping them vacant (CCR vacancy rate even during good time is 3plus%)
Agree, I believe hdb is not over built because of bto....
Pte is another story altogether...... But when u combine both Pte and hdb, the stats becomes foggy.....
invigorated
19-01-15, 14:24
he is not counting segment by segment. he merely takes the total housing supply number and compare with the total projected demand. 25k new couple each year goes towards adding to that 6.9mil number. The current new units in the pipeline as a whole can cater to the total demand, according to his household ratio.
if you take the above as a premise and go one further step, seeing BTOs are already "taken" (since "BTO"), you can observe the even more interesting corollary from his theory : HDB is "properly" supplied (as you noted, "BTO" for the yearly new couples are yet to be built), Pte is GROSSLY over-supplied, (i.e. even if all the new couples can afford pte, the total supply will "just about meet").
Personally I think this statistics analysis is hard to do. 1st so many tiny MMs/1bds/2bds/"investment only units" are built, these are not properly accounted for in this kind of "nb persons per unit". 2nd there are no clear/enough data on how many ppl staying with parents and planning to move out. 3rd many of these "investment units" are bought as inflation hedge/parking assets, there is nothing special keeping them vacant (CCR vacancy rate even during good time is 3plus%)
Thanks for the meaningful analysis. Just thinking aloud, do these numbers factor in couples who have to sell off their hdb flats when their EC and condos are ready too?
Taking into account the bearish market sentiment, the cooling measures, especially TDSR, the political bias towards winning more votes, the economic slowdown, expected interest rate increase, etc, the property market looks real ugly going forward. How severe and how long this downturn will last is anybody's guess. The property market is not the place to be in at this time.
Agree with you mostly for some segments.
But the main discussion is whether the number of homes calculated by Ku is enough. It's not directly about prices, although the true quantity of supply may help determine the respective prices.
Taking into account the bearish market sentiment, the cooling measures, especially TDSR, the political bias towards winning more votes, the economic slowdown, expected interest rate increase, etc, the property market looks real ugly going forward. How severe and how long this downturn will last is anybody's guess. The property market is not the place to be in at this time.
Property crash on the way!!!
http://www.todayonline.com/business/property/ec-land-prices-plunge-lowest-2011
EC land prices plunge to lowest since 2011
TODAY
Published: 4:11 AM, January 21, 2015
SINGAPORE — The price of land for executive condominiums (ECs) has fallen to the lowest in three-and-a-half years as developers curbed bids amid poor sales for the hybrid public-private housing type.
An EC plot in Anchorvale Crescent attracted only three bids by the close of tender yesterday, with Sim Lian Land submitting the top bid of S$157.8 million for the 187,830 sq ft site, the Housing and Development Board said.
With a maximum permissible gross floor area of 563,493 sq ft, the bid translated to S$280 per sq ft per plot ratio, well below analysts’ forecasts of S$320 to S$360 psfppr.
Mr Nicholas Mak, executive director of SLP International Property Consultants, said the bid is the lowest for EC land since July 2011, when a tender for a Punggol Field EC site closed at S$269 psfppr.
“The low participation rate among developers in this tender and the low bids illustrate the falling interest among developers for EC development sites due to the relatively poor sales in some of the recent EC launches. Based on the top bid in today’s land tender, the EC land price has returned to the level in mid-2011. This is perhaps another sign of a stabilising real estate market as a result of the government’s cooling measures,” he said.
If the tender is awarded to Sim Lian, the break-even price for the EC units in this future development is estimated to range from S$640 to S$660 psf, allowing the developer to undercut other EC projects launched in the vicinity, Mr Mak added.
The site is next to two other EC projects along Anchorvale Crescent that are being developed into Bellewaters by Qingjian Realty and The Vales by SingHaiYi.
The land price of Bellewaters was S$330.65 psfppr in May 2013, while that of The Vales was S$366.91 psfppr in February last year, Mr Mak said.
In addition, there were 1,580 EC units that were still unsold as at the end of last year in developments within the Sengkang and Punggol planning areas, he noted.
Demand for ECs was hit after changes late in 2013 that included the introduction of a mortgage servicing ratio and resale levies for second-time applicants.
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