Would you pay $1500 psf for this new project in D12?

[Amber Woods]

Would you pay $1500 psf for this new 99 yr LH project in D12 Toa Payoh next year (assuming it will be launched next year) when other older FH projects in D12 and D15 (Katong area) can be had for less and expected to be even lesser next year?



Toa Payoh site draws 14 bids

A residential site atLorong 6 Toa Payoh and Lorong 4 Toa Payoh has received strong interest from developers, attracting 14 bids at the close of its public tender exercise on Thursday, revealed the Housing and Development Board (HDB).
Desmond Sim, head of CBRE Research for Singapore and South East Asia, said this is unsurprising considering the sites location within a well-established estate with very few private residential projects.

A consortium comprising Evia Real Estate, Greatearth Pte Ltd and Gamuda Berhad submitted the highest bid of $345.86 million, followed by Sing Holdings with a $342.1 million offer.The gap between the winning bid and the next highest is a close call of only 1.1 percent the lowest gap we have seen since Q2 2014 when a site at Choa Chu Kang Drive was awarded to Sim Lian Land at a margin of 2.2 percent over the next bidder, stated Dr Chua Yang Liang, JLL research head for South East Asia. Christine Li, director of research at Cushman & Wakefield, said the top bid indicated that land prices around the area have held up despite tepid sales in the new homes market. In fact, it was very much in line with the bullish bid achieved at the Lorong Puntong site in Upper Thomson last August.

Since there have been no new private residential launches within the area since 2009, Li expects the project to be well-received by first-time buyers and upgraders if priced realistically.

The breakeven price of the project is around $1,250 psf and we expect sales to start at around $1,450-1,500 psf, she shared.

Founded in 2010, Evia has launched three executive condominium projects in Singapore Watercolours in Pasir Ris (2011), Heron Bay in Upper Serangoon (2012) and the record-breaking Lake Life in Jurong Lake District (2014).
Similar to Jurong, we believe that there is a pent-up demand for private housing in this area, as it is one of the most populated public housing estates in Singapore, and is the closest estate to the city, said Vincent Ong, Managing Partner of Evia Real Estate.

Having launched three successful executive condominiums in the past, we are confident that we will be able to continue providing buyers with excellent quality homes that are not only a sound investment choice, but a vibrant and attractive home for the family.

Image: Map of Toa Payoh site. (Source: HDB)

Romesh Navaratnarajah, Singapore Editor at PropertyGuru, edited this story. To contact him about this or other stories email [email protected]

[Amber Woods]

Riverside Melodies, a new FH development in D12 (St. Michael estate) only manage to sell 6 units since obtaining its TOP in 2013 at around $1300 psf. Riverside Melodies consists of normal size units. Unless this new development consist of mostly small units, $1500 psf will not see many takers.

[MrTan]

Riverside Melodies, a new FH development in D12 (St. Michael estate) only manage to sell 6 units since obtaining its TOP in 2013 at around $1300 psf. Riverside Melodies consists of normal size units. Unless this new development consist of mostly small units, $1500 psf will not see many takers.

Riverside Melodies, its nearest mrt is Potong Pasir and its quite a distance away. This new Toa Payoh development, it has Braddell mrt within walking distance. Hence not really apple to apple comparison. People also said Northpark Residences can't sell at $1400 psf due to developer over bidded the land at a huge gap from the second bidder. In the end, it's still selling like hot cakes. Hence regardless rational or not, when people wanna buy, people will buy. And it has always being location location location.

[Amber Woods]

Riverside Melodies, its nearest mrt is Potong Pasir and its quite a distance away. This new Toa Payoh development, it has Braddell mrt within walking distance. Hence not really apple to apple comparison. People also said Northpark Residences can't sell at $1400 psf due to developer over bidded the land at a huge gap from the second bidder. In the end, it's still selling like hot cakes. Hence regardless rational or not, when people wanna buy, people will buy. And it has always being location location location.


The site is between Lor 4/6 right in the middle of HDB housing estate. Riverside Melodies is right in a private housing estate. At at $1500 would make Riverside Melodies a steal with FH tenure too...... but RM is still not selling.

[MrTan]

The site is between Lor 4/6 right in the middle of HDB housing estate. Riverside Melodies is right in a private housing estate. At at $1500 would make Riverside Melodies a steal with FH tenure too...... but RM is still not selling.

So u have bought RM?

[Amber Woods]

So u have bought RM?

Only making a comparison. RM is not selling at $1300 psf so this new development cannot make it at the price of $1500 psf and that is my point.

[MrTan]

Only making a comparison. RM is not selling at $1300 psf so this new development cannot make it at the price of $1500 psf and that is my point.

NPR is selling at $1400 psf so this new development can make it at the price of $1500 psf and that is my point. Only time will tell. Wanna wager?

[Amber Woods]

NPR is selling at $1400 psf so this new development can make it at the price of $1500 psf and that is my point. Only time will tell. Wanna wager?

Unless next year market turnaround which is not likely the case. In fact market is expected to consolidate further next year. Just discussing base on our feel of the market.

[MrTan]

Unless next year market turnaround which is not likely the case. In fact market is expected to consolidate further next year. Just discussing base on our feel of the market.

I totally agree with all your points if most buyers are shepherds. However as most buyers are in the herd, I would say the contrary will happen, unless more CMs are introduced. Then its anybody's guess already.

[Amber Woods]

I totally agree with all your points if most buyers are shepherds. However as most buyers are in the herd, I would say the contrary will happen, unless more CMs are introduced. Then its anybody's guess already.

My feel is by next year, the herd will also follow the greater herd and out of the market as well when prices continue to fall. So the sales will be scattered.

[visionary75]

Riverside Melodies, a new FH development in D12 (St. Michael estate) only manage to sell 6 units since obtaining its TOP in 2013 at around $1300 psf. Riverside Melodies consists of normal size units. Unless this new development consist of mostly small units, $1500 psf will not see many takers.

A more meaningful comparison would be 99LH at D13 (Sennett Residence / Sant Ritz) both near MRT, similarly around 1400psf. Which is more worthwhile?

[MrTan]

A more meaningful comparison would be 99LH at D13 (Sennett Residence / Sant Ritz) both near MRT, similarly around 1400psf. Which is more worthwhile?

Agree.
Sennett Residence - 307 sold out of 332 total units.
Sant Ritz - 171 sold out of 214 total units.

Question - why is The Venue not selling? Only 92 sold out of 266 units? Too close to PIE?

[highboy]

Bear in mind this Toa Payoh site is totally surround by HDB flats.

Sennette Residence & Sant Ritz are both on the private (landed) side of potong pasir and much closer to the MRT.

At $1500psf, won't buying Sky Habitat or Sky Vue be much better?

[highboy]

And I think the best comparison will be Trevista.

[MrTan]

Bear in mind this Toa Payoh site is totally surround by HDB flats.

Sennette Residence & Sant Ritz are both on the private (landed) side of potong pasir and much closer to the MRT.

At $1500psf, won't buying Sky Habitat or Sky Vue be much better?

Aren't both Skys currently selling at $1600psf? And Trevista was launched years ago.

Guess there's really no real like to like comparison to this new tpy site after all.

So at the end of the day, what is our gut feeling on this new development selling at $1500psf? Will it sell at all? Guess we can always vote on it. And only time will tell.

[henryhk]

Aren't both Skys currently selling at $1600psf? And Trevista was launched years ago.

Guess there's really no real like to like comparison to this new tpy site after all.

So at the end of the day, what is our gut feeling on this new development selling at $1500psf? Will it sell at all? Guess we can always vote on it. And only time will tell.

Can sell or not....first is to sell the resale price of the Toa payoh hdb....if high, sure can sell

[MrTan]

Can sell or not....first is to sell the resale price of the Toa payoh hdb....if high, sure can sell

Then why Yishun hdb resale price so low, but Northpark Residences still can sell so high?

[Kelonguni]

Then why Yishun hdb resale price so low, but Northpark Residences still can sell so high?

An excellent question worth pondering... :peaceful:

[Arcachon]

This is how you calculate Durian can buy or not.

http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php/23807-Durian-like-that-how-to-drop

[Amber Woods]

Then why Yishun hdb resale price so low, but Northpark Residences still can sell so high?


Northpark Residences are mostly small and compact units hence at $1400 psf is still affordable. It is also a mixed development which for some reasons are the preferred choice of today's younger buyers. This may have to do with changing lifestyles with more younger couples eating out. Buyers may also believe mixed development is easier to rent out.

If the developer for the Toa Payoh site builds mostly compact units. $1500 psf may well be saleable. However. If it will to launch next year, it can be a challenge.

[MrTan]

Northpark Residences are mostly small and compact units hence at $1400 psf is still affordable. It is also a mixed development which for some reasons are the preferred choice of today's younger buyers. This may have to do with changing lifestyles with more younger couples eating out. Buyers may also believe mixed development is easier to rent out.

If the developer for the Toa Payoh site builds mostly compact units. $1500 psf may well be saleable. However. If it will to launch next year, it can be a challenge.

If u r the developer for this Toa Payoh site, would you emulate NPR success and build mostly compact units, or would you take a risk and build otherwise? Seems like most developers nowadays are building mostly compact units in order to keep the quantum as low as possible. Few would do otherwise and risk paying extension charges.

And why would it be a challenge next year? IMHO, assuming if there is no change in the CMs, developers will have no challenge in selling if both the price and the location are right, though I can't say the same for buyers buying for investment/rental purposes. Of course it all depends whether they are the shepherds or the herd.

[Reisor]

Yes, have to agree that part of the main force withholding prices and purchases are the resale in HDB for TP upgraders. If the heartlanders are buying as 2nd home, then prices can hold or even up a little. Rental is quite strong there as full of amenities.


Can sell or not....first is to sell the resale price of the Toa payoh hdb....if high, sure can sell

[henryhk]

Yes, have to agree that part of the main force withholding prices and purchases are the resale in HDB for TP upgraders. If the heartlanders are buying as 2nd home, then prices can hold or even up a little. Rental is quite strong there as full of amenities.
even Yishun can sell at $1450 psf, for Toa Payoh condo , more central, near mrt and well connected to city and vast mrt network to rest of Singapore, selling at $1500 psf is achievable...haha

[Cupcakes]

Then the old hdb flat nearer to braddell mrt should be able to fetch a higher price ?

[henryhk]

I tink resale Hdb price will depend on the pricing of new Hdb in tat area, not really condo price...

[teddybear]

If there is no change in property cooling measures, property prices expected to drop >20% from recent peak.
CCR has already dropped >20% from recent peak.
OCR has only dropped about 5% and another >15% to go!
Think property prices will slide till 2018-2019 when it will be hit with the next recession! All in property prices may drop >35%? Many property investors are just being stuck if they want to sell between now to 2019 because of the ABSD, SSD, TDSR that hits both buyers and sellers..........



Unless next year market turnaround which is not likely the case. In fact market is expected to consolidate further next year. Just discussing base on our feel of the market.

[Sandiwara]

If there is no change in property cooling measures, property prices expected to drop >20% from recent peak.
CCR has already dropped >20% from recent peak.
OCR has only dropped about 5% and another >15% to go!
Think property prices will slide till 2018-2019 when it will be hit with the next recession! All in property prices may drop >35%? Many property investors are just being stuck if they want to sell between now to 2019 because of the ABSD, SSD, TDSR that hits both buyers and sellers..........


For OCR drooping Price, Which year compare to which year and which unit???
I just check latest Northoaks cheaper price is 770k. If bought it 785k on 2012, Then it only drop for 1.94% only.

[prop1688]

If we base on URA property price index which drops for a consecutive 7 qtrs from 155 (peak) to 145, it is approximately about 6.9% drop for the local property market as a whole. Still got rooms to drop further. :)
http://propertyinvestmentsingapore.sg/blog/ura-property-price-index/